Search found 187 matches

by kathyauburn
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6107

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

Another way to handle this is to avoid the risk of financial shocks. I don't have an emergency fund, but I also don't have a car (no sudden repairs), I don't own my home (ditto), I live in a country with tax-paid healthcare (no healthcare costs) and high unemployment benefits (income would not sink...
by kathyauburn
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan
Replies: 80
Views: 8806

Re: Amount You Need To Save Annually Over Lifespan

I think that all of this talk of saving takes a significant back seat to a more important question: Are you happy in what you do? If you're not happy--if you hate your job, your partner, your burdens--then either you won't be able to meet a savings goal because you'll inevitably crash and burn or yo...
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house
Replies: 93
Views: 8615

Re: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house

Often in these posts the person asking the question already has an answer in mind, any advice that matches their preconceived answer they will listen to and any advice that contradicts it they will dismiss. OP hasn't posted in a week. Is probably muttering, "Those cheap bastard, Toyota-driving resi...
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house
Replies: 93
Views: 8615

Re: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house

Often in these posts the person asking the question already has an answer in mind, any advice that matches their preconceived answer they will listen to and any advice that contradicts it they will dismiss. I figured that. Responding in message boards like these is really primarily for one's own en...
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest or pay off mortgage?
Replies: 77
Views: 6082

Re: Invest or pay off mortgage?

WildBill wrote:
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:01 am
For me, the psychological benefit of being debt free far outweighed any argument re carrying mortgage and investing for higher return than mortgage rate.
Bingo!
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature
Replies: 86
Views: 5920

Re: The 4% rule, Firecalc and Human Nature

Just downsize, and keep downsizing, until you can live easily on 2.5 or 3 percent. That's what I did. 4 percent will be gravy.
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house
Replies: 93
Views: 8615

Re: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house

I'm 42, and 10 years into practice. I did not make the mistake of overspending with fancy houses/cars/etc when I started to make real money. Instead I lived like a cheap bastard resident, paid off all debts and saved like crazy and let the power of compounding do its job. Drove an ancient toyota wh...
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house
Replies: 93
Views: 8615

Re: Can I afford a $1,400,000 house

Looking to possibly buy a 1.4 million dollar house. I've never understood the "can I afford" question. The more I've made in my life, the more I've downsized. I like living on less than 10 percent of what I bring in. If I could lower that even more by downsizing further or earning more, I would. To...
by kathyauburn
Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest or pay off mortgage?
Replies: 77
Views: 6082

Re: Invest or pay off mortgage?

ACA wrote:
Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:58 am
Really like the idea of being debt free
Same here. Never regretted paying off mortgage. Just do it.
by kathyauburn
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 1773

Re: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds

tampaite wrote:
Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:32 am
Update: Placed an order to exchange 100% of shares which were in 2050 fund with 2030 fund.
Good move. Now just keep dollar-cost averaging into it with paychecks, keep your skills current, and hope for the best. Don't forget cash.
by kathyauburn
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds
Replies: 43
Views: 1773

Re: Reduce risk tolerance - Vanguard Target Funds

Down just hit 24K and my tolerance for risk has reduced. Call it market timing but I'd like to reduce my risk(am in my 40s now) I have my entire 401K in Vanguard 2050 fund(89.97% Stocks/9.98% Bonds). Here is my thinking - poke any holes in it :D Existing $ in 401k - If I want to take on lower risk ...
by kathyauburn
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert Portfolio from 70/30 to 30/70 Gradually or All at Once?
Replies: 49
Views: 3389

Re: Convert Portfolio from 70/30 to 30/70 Gradually or All at Once?

I don't think it is wise to base this kind of strategy on how one feels unless one really can't trust oneself not to make big mistakes based on feelings. That is a legitimate concern for people to have. Yup. I agree. Emotions are king. Next to "ability to recover," which is not fixed (one can lose ...
by kathyauburn
Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convert Portfolio from 70/30 to 30/70 Gradually or All at Once?
Replies: 49
Views: 3389

Re: Convert Portfolio from 70/30 to 30/70 Gradually or All at Once?

I'm 3 years away from retirement, have reached an accumulation target that will take me reasonably through retirement. Therefore, I've taken those chips off the table, so to speak, with a 20/80 portfolio that lost only 5% in the 2008/9 meltdown and regained all of it plus 2% the following year. That...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 787

100% Stocks?

Like a wild ride? Plug these annual S&P 500 returns (1928-2016) into your spreadsheet and see how much fun you can have: 43.81% -8.30% -25.12% -43.84% -8.64% 49.98% -1.19% 46.74% 31.94% -35.34% 29.28% -1.10% -10.67% -12.77% 19.17% 25.06% 19.03% 35.82% -8.43% 5.20% 5.70% 18.30% 30.81% 23.68% 18.15% -...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increase buying 100%
Replies: 69
Views: 6811

Re: Worry market crush, selling 50%, but increae buying 100%

I did some AA this month, move AA to 50/50. However, I did 401k purchase allocation to 100% into equity. US/Intl 50/50. Yes, I am more comfortable. I will capture 50% of market gain but limit 50% loss. In case of crash, I will be all in again. This year is good for me. I am up 18.8%. Sounds like yo...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 217
Views: 154504

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Doesn't this reinforce the importance of adjusting one's allocation so conservatively that one's "sleep factor" remains intact no matter the noise, the downturn, the market adjustment, . . et al ?? Short version: Adjusting the allocation so conservatively that we can sleep well at night may not be ...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

stick with it through good & bad times. The question is whether the rest of one's portfolio--and one's ever-changing, unforeseeable circumstances--will let one "stick with it" through bad times. Let's say, oh, 50% porfolio loss. A decade to recover the losses. Do you have enough cash/reserves set a...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Even more of a reason to try and have a high savings rate through out one's working career. If your career is cut short you may just have accumulated enough to squeak by into retirement or into another career. The worse that happens is you retire earlier on your terms or with a bigger pile of asset...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Assume that someone says they can't tolerate more than about a 10% loss in a given year. Vanguard's model portfolios shows that person should be about 20% stocks and 80% bonds. Is that it? Simply have a 20/80 portfolio and rest easy? That's my current asset allocation, and the bond portion consists...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

If you working, making money and saving, you continue of have cash inflow every pay period. Until your porfolio exceeds 500k or more, saving rate is the driver of building your net worth. That said, with the stock price is bulling, it's a good idea to cash in stock gain by rebalance your porforlio ...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Assume that someone says they can't tolerate more than about a 10% loss in a given year. Vanguard's model portfolios shows that person should be about 20% stocks and 80% bonds. Is that it? Simply have a 20/80 portfolio and rest easy? That's my current asset allocation, and the bond portion consists...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

This concept is presented on Bogleheads frequently and with much conviction. Yet it seems to make a difficult and important decision seem almost trivially easy. First, how does one "determine their risk tolerance"? What if they haven't lived through a crash? What if they have, but their personality...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

If there's anyone who hasn't been through a Big Nasty, I would urge caution. I imagine it's far nicer to get through a bear market and find you've been too conservative than to come crashing through from the other side. Spot on. Looked at from a distance, a system that almost requires one to suffer...
by kathyauburn
Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

I' am 100% invested in stocks. According to my Vanguard sign in page I' am up 15% this year. I' am a long term buy & hold investor. I dca each & every payday. If the market goes down I'll consider it on sale & buy as much as I can. I have the willingness, ability & time to take the risk. I' am very...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares(VTSAX) total return is up 5.32% since the initial post. That's irrelevant. It could be down 15% next month. What matters is your asset allocation, determined by your risk tolerance. Figure that out (the latter before the former) and then go do s...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 19, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a crash coming soon?
Replies: 64
Views: 5887

Re: Is a crash coming soon?

Set your Asset Allocation assuming a crash could happen tomorrow. Because it could. This is true all the time. I second this. If you're worried about a crash, your asset allocation is wrong. Your asset allocation should reflect your risk tolerance: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27476

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

I'm not smart enough to trust my feelings. I engaged in market timing on my early purchases, always hoping or expecting some event would occur, and ended up just wasting time. Now I look at it as, "If the market drops fifty percent, my dividends will buy more shares and my new purchases will buy mo...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 19, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invest $5K-$10K in NVDA or JNJ
Replies: 5
Views: 656

Re: Invest $5K-$10K in NVDA or JNJ

I own JNJ but I would not buy at these levels. The market is trading higher based on earnings "guidance". Guidance is another way of saying it could be X or Y or something in between. The market then takes the guidance and believes in the higher of the numbers - a form of euphoria if you will. Now,...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Offensive Valuations
Replies: 45
Views: 4418

Re: Offensive Valuations

Why in the world would I buy more shares of this "business" (S&P 500) right now, at a multiple of twice the historical average? Because everyone else is doing it? I heard someone the other day say that when he worked in the financial industry during the '87 crash, a poll (by fax!) was taken. The qu...
by kathyauburn
Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies
Replies: 43
Views: 3892

Re: Rebalancing - Personal Philosophies

archerydoc wrote:
Sun Oct 08, 2017 4:56 pm
I am curious how often others are rebalancing their portfolios. I am also interested to hear personal opinions regarding the "best" time(s) of year to perform this essential activity.
I do not rebalance. Too much trouble. I let the fund I'm in do it for me on a daily basis.
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Vanguard help invest $50,000
Replies: 24
Views: 1977

Re: Taxable Vanguard help invest $50,000

John Laurens wrote:
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:51 pm
If I were you based off the info you gave, I would pay off any debt including the condo before taxable investing.

Regards,
John
Second this. Be debt free.
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Tested, yes, like so many in 2008-9. I was about 75% stocks, 9 years to go to retirement with pension. We know what happened to the stocks. But the surprise came May 2009 when our entire organization got notice that, due to an imploding state budget, we would cease to exist in 60 days. It seemed un...
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8580

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

Essentially, he asserts that equity investing in much riskier than most people believe, and that increased time in the market actually increasing your portfolio risk. He is a proponent of Treasury I Bonds and TIPS for the money that you need for retirement, and only use equities for money in excess...
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8580

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I note that Vanguard's terminal retirement portfolio AA is 30/70. The government's TSP is 20/80. In all of the testing and calculations I've done (and the testing includes my comfort level), these are the ratios that allow me to sleep well at night and not worry about whether my money will run out....
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8580

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I note that Vanguard's terminal retirement portfolio AA is 30/70. The government's TSP is 20/80. In all of the testing and calculations I've done (and the testing includes my comfort level), these are the ratios that allow me to sleep well at night and not worry about whether my money will run out.
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8580

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I'm 56 years old and I have all the money I will ever need based on my lifestyle (boring). With the market overdue for a correction does it ever make sense to completely liqudate ones exposure to risk. I'm currently at a 50/50 mix. Thoughts? My short answer is no. My more detailed response is conta...
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 16404

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF1RodFhFwc This is very depressing. Even the master himself is saying we will get something like measly 3% from the market and the fun times are over. Really? :( Not fair. I guess due to exposure of everyone to these markets indexing is just not that profitable anym...
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone hold cash?
Replies: 58
Views: 6048

Re: Does anyone hold cash?

Blueskies123 wrote:
Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:38 am
I keep two years of expenses in cash now that I am retired.
I think this makes sense. I do the same.
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

The events that can harm your savings have a fairly high correlation with the events that can harm your income, so attempting to make sure that th the worst-case scenario is tolerable is a more appropriate goal. Well said. What I do to build in the worst-case scenario that you mention--and thus get...
by kathyauburn
Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

One thing people should be aware of is that their risk tolerance may change as their circumstances change. For example, when someone retires they lose their human capital. They are vulnerable to the sequence of return risk and no longer can rely on their human capital to help recoup their losses. A...
by kathyauburn
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP to Vanguard?
Replies: 127
Views: 16383

Re: TSP to Vanguard?

I retired in January 2015 from the Federal Government. I chose to transfer 100% of my TSP into a diversified set of Vanguard index funds. For me, the TSP was a great vehicle for accumulating assets, but I viewed the withdrawal options as restrictive and over-controlled. Further, I do not wish to to...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

People talk about choosing an allocation they can stick with, but many times it sounds like they pick something they think they can get through with teeth clenched, knuckles white - in other words...."gutting it out". I think it is a very poor approach, even if you actually do manage to stay the co...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

I think the real test is if and when the market goes down and stays down for years. Most people here have been conditioned to think it bounces back up. That isn't always the case. Look at 30s. Look at mid 60s to 1982. Or worse look at Japan. Agree. That's why I said we were just lucky in 08-09 that...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Lesson: regardless of your position, there is no such thing as job security. Those are words of wisdom. Teaching was the closest thing I came to having a job that was really secure ("so long as people continue *******, teacher jobs will always be there"). I thought govt was the next best thing, but...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:27 am
BolderBoy wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:26 am
2007-2009 my advisor had me 90/10 (wide variety of VERY risk things) and I watched 50% of my portfolio disappear. In 2009 (just before March), he sold and went to cash. :(
That's painful to read.
It sure is.
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

So I have two questions for the group that may give others who are reading this some food for thought. First, has the risk tolerance that presumably went into determining your asset allocation actually been battle tested by market downturns? kathyauburn, I was 100/0 with individual Telecom stock du...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

My wife and I both agreed that we should do absolutely nothing. And as I've said, the right description of 2008-2009 was not "we stayed the course" but "we froze like deer caught in the headlights." I'm a fraidycat and have always had "too conservative" an allocation. As a matter of fact in 2007 I ...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Absolutely I was tested in 2008-09. This thread says it all: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=25126&hilit=I+can%27t+believe Some really great words of wisdom in that post you cited. I like this in particular: Nothing can be said that will help. One lesson only - if you can't su...
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

Sheepdog wrote:
Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:14 am
Absolutely I was tested in 2008-09. This thread says it all: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=25126&hilit=I+can%27t+believe
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing that. And what might have happened had less intelligent people been at the helm during that period?
by kathyauburn
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 7091

Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

One key determinant of a sensible asset allocation is "risk tolerance." I contend that the phrase "risk tolerance" means very little when people are initially confronted with the idea, and as a result people create their portfolios, at least initially, with very little to no understanding of what th...