Search found 385 matches

by k66
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 33
Views: 9331

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Bull AND Bear for the next 5 year? Absolutely.

I'm good to go.
by k66
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 689

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hello wstalcup, I am by no means an expert on the topic but this may help explain some of your questions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BATS_Global_Markets In my own crude mental framework, I liken different exchanges to different used car lots: each can sell any type of vehicle make that they can a...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7647

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

The only flaw is you could prudently spend a lot more money if you wanted to. If you want to travel more, buy a nicer car, hire out some household tasks, or increase your quality of life in any way, but do not do it for fear of not having enough money later in life, I think that is a mistake. You w...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7647

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Folks, Someone else is discussing portfolio construction for a very safe withdrawal. But, does that make any sense if your withdrawal rate is 2% or lower? Won't simple 60/40 portfolio works? There must be a gap in my thinking. For example, if the social security cover 50% of a person's retirement e...
by k66
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 2792

Re: Learning from loss

I learned that I did not know enough to take on the markets after I thought that I knew enough to take on the markets.
by k66
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You
Replies: 3
Views: 1951

Re: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You

It's an interesting plug indeed. Instead of arguing that the passive index route is the more effective investing path, the authors suggest that rather than getting continuously beat up by 1% Mutual Fund fees or settling for "average" market return, a person is better off riding their Foolish hot-pic...
by k66
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13737

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

my own spreadsheet output using data from 1928 to present (SP 500 for equities and 10-yr Treasuries for bonds, both adjusted for CPI) would suggest SWRs of 4.15% for a 25 year period, 3.81% for a 30 year period, 3.64% for a 35 year period and 3.80% for a 40 year period. Must be a typo. SWR can only...
by k66
Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13737

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

4.5% rule? I didn't know this. Thanks for your question. Before I answer it specifically, why don't we dispense with some preliminaries, so we are all on the same page? The "4% rule" is actually the "4.5% rule"- I modified it some years ago on the basis of new research. The 4.5% is the percentage y...
by k66
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Investing at Peaks
Replies: 29
Views: 3498

Re: Case for Investing at Peaks

... What do you do to convince yourself to invest even if the market is frothy? I know that if I only invest at the "worst" times (as you were alluding to by your reference to the "worlds worst market timer") and can still do OK, then by investing (more or less continuously) between all the potenti...
by k66
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?
Replies: 1
Views: 279

Re: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?

As I am sometimes prone to saying: Fill your Boots.

S&P500 Component Performances

It looks like for today, a net down day for the index, there were 28% Bulls and 72% Bears.
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians
Replies: 4
Views: 801

Re: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians

... Link - http://www.sunlife.ca/Canada/GRS+matters/GRS+matters+articles/2017/Breaking+News/Sun+Lifes+next+generation+target+date+retirement+solution+Canadas+newest+retirement+innovation?vgnLocale=en_CA BobK The introduction of this solution shifts the focus of the retirement conversation away from...
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "sleeve"?
Replies: 34
Views: 3310

Re: What is a "sleeve"?

My friend's financial advisor is encouraging her to go with an "end sleeve" and to avoid index funds at all costs :D [pun intended] What is an "end sleeve"? I don't find anything on the wiki about it. A sleeve could also be a box of three golf balls. Perhaps your friend's advisor is angling for tha...
by k66
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: black swan/fooled by randomness
Replies: 11
Views: 2386

Re: black swan/fooled by randomness

I am looking forward to reading Fooled By Randomness . Apparently Taleb discusses Monte Carlo in that book. Over a decade later, he insists that Monte Carlo is the best way to learn probability: To the freq. question, "which book to learn probability?" DO NOT start w/books. Do zillions of Monte Car...
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)
Replies: 6
Views: 1687

Re: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)

Didn't we already know this? And as much as Bengen is the progenitor of the 4% notion, there are some "flaws" that I don't like with his methodology (that were better controlled for in the Trinity study).
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 27
Views: 3458

Re: Bubbles

Yes it is a great piece -- thought-provoking for sure.

But also covered in this thread here: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 4883

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

Read the Illinois Lottery is suspending all Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the state because of the ongoing budget crisis. _ Maybe they shouldn't do that... maybe the Governor should be buying all kinds of tickets in order to have a statistically reasonable chance of hitting the jackpot. I gu...
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"
Replies: 13
Views: 1233

Re: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"

Well, maybe it it will be cool and jazzy at first but I think it may also have less rhythm and too many blues for what a long term investor wants to hear.

Also,no mention of fees. That's certainly not music to my ears either.
by k66
Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive
Replies: 15
Views: 2649

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive

It would appear though that persistence does exist... persistence of inconsistence (within a group).
by k66
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 3852

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

Also, the nominal 4% rule is to withdraw 4% of the starting balance, and annually adjust the amount of the withdrawal for inflation. It's a rule of thumb, and is currently considered a bit too aggressive to guarantee. Like all rules of thumb, you have to adjust as you go. I don't think you are supp...
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment complications
Replies: 5
Views: 768

Re: Investment complications

Congratulations FutureShock.

My own "a-ha" realization came about 9 years ago reading the "Naked Investor" but then almost another two years after that to get fully adapted with a BH style portfolio and mindset.

It's never too late to start!
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26480

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Hmmm, I see that my JNS (Janus Capital) has merged with Henderson PLC resulting in a new listing on the NYSE for Janus-Henderson under the ticker "JHG" News Release The new JHG seems to be trading in the $30 range but the "closing" price for Janus/JNS from last Friday was in the ...
by k66
Fri May 26, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model
Replies: 6
Views: 916

Re: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model

Hello I think I have stumbled on the perfect formula 50% Index fund (total US) 15% GOOGL 15% AMZN 15% NVDA 5% JNJ, V, AAPL I don't think it is possible to beat my formula. The individual equities are all super cheap relative to 20 years from now so you won't go wrong even buying in after the run up...
by k66
Tue May 23, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8786

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

frankmorris wrote:...
What am I missing? Where is the bubble? If valuations are high, where are the corresponding bad business models that usually accompany unsustainable bubbles?
...


Who knows, who cares? Stay the course (and rebalance as required).

What are we missing?
by k66
Mon May 22, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need help with ER calculations
Replies: 3
Views: 352

Re: Need help with ER calculations

HKboggles: As you suspected, the answer may be very simple indeed. You could really just calculate the percentage that one fee contributes to the total fee that you pay. For example calculate the weighted result of any one fund in your portfolio to the weighted average of all your funds: (10% x 0.25...
by k66
Tue May 16, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"
Replies: 10
Views: 1099

Re: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"

Or perhaps this could be a great ploy to attract investors who might otherwise grudgingly place money in a passive fund because they finally realized how expensive active funds really are. This would offer "active at passive" pricing as the sales pitch but could then be nothing more than a...
by k66
Sun May 07, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 15
Views: 2803

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

I track the value of one of my retirement accounts--one which I don't make any new contributions--and in the last column in my tracking spreadsheet, I note whether the portfolio has or has not made a new high. Over the past seven years, the portfolio has made a new high at month's end 45% of the tim...
by k66
Mon May 01, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 206
Views: 17922

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

When I first started a BH approach (7 years ago), I assumed I would be able to build a portfolio for 25 bp and allowed for another 5 bp to manage the accounts (e.g. buy/sell costs when rebalancing). I am currently at 8 bp (when perfectly balanced) and <2 bp for transactional costs. Pencil me in for ...
by k66
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell in May and go away - not this year?
Replies: 15
Views: 2876

Re: Sell in May and go away - not this year?

inbox788 wrote:...
If you knew for a fact the market would remain flat for for the summer and it would rise 10% in winter, where would you move or park your cash in the summer?


I might be inclined to leave my equities alone and continue taking the dividends. In fact, I know I would.

Stay the Course!
by k66
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 5605

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

... In fact, what an investment provider gets as a fraction of what you would otherwise have had depends only on their fees, not returns. Looked at more precisely, the provider gets a fraction equal to 1–(1+c)^(–T) of what would otherwise be my wealth, given fee c and time horizon T. Is the relatio...
by k66
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 31
Views: 3574

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

My broker offers a small discount in their trade commission for those who make more that 150 trades per quarter. Even when I was most active, I was only making ~100 trades per quarter, but I bet that there are lots of folks out there who are members of the frequent trader's club. In a perverse kind ...
by k66
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under
Replies: 9
Views: 1351

Re: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under

Once a year is enough. 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949 This thread is pointless. Agreed. Daily movements are almost entirely random. If I were to make an under/over prediction, I would constantly pick "over" regardless (and be correc...
by k66
Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning
Replies: 17
Views: 2668

Re: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning

If recoveries followed crashes more reliably than by chance, you would expect historical sequences to show a higher certainty equivalence than randomly drawn sequences, but they do not. It is never going to be possible to prove that a random walk is the correct model for retirement planning, but I ...
by k66
Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 2194

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

Mr. Roth is always spot on.
by k66
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices
Replies: 11
Views: 1846

Re: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices

Hmmm... a couple of trains of thought: A) Evolution of the markets continue; humans are fully replaced by Smart-B 'bots, and they all now routinely "beat the market". Except they are now collectively the market, but continue to outperform by the old standard(s). So the passive indexer (the...
by k66
Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal experience over time? [How far from retirement, time spent investing]
Replies: 31
Views: 3542

Re: Personal experience over time?

I am a 50 y.o. accumulator and, at the end of next month, I will have been a BH-style investor for 7 years. I am happy with my results and have a "since inception" (7 year) annualized return of approx 8%. My AA has varied a bit over those years but I have now gravitated to, and am comforta...
by k66
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Replies: 2
Views: 728

Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?

Did you mean 1871? I'm not sure that there are good data going back to 1826 and even if there were, it might be considered a bit stale (as in, the market operating conditions are vastly different since then... ditto for 1871 for that matter). I believe Shiller's data is what you are wanting (downloa...
by k66
Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 4833

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

I know what you mean. Regardless of how I, or or others, feel about the current state of bonds; I am still inclined to ignore the noise, stay my course, and follow my plan. And for the record, I am neither bullish or bearish on bonds; but I am buying bonds because my equities are above their target ...
by k66
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett's Bet"
Replies: 18
Views: 2691

Re: "Buffett's Bet"

What's more interesting, as Mr. Sisti reminds us, is not that the S&P500 fund continues to shellacque the hedge fund fund-of-funds, but rather that there were no other hedge fund managers who took the bet. Where was their confidence when it came time to show off their apparent skills? More likel...
by k66
Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 19934

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

You are asking BH-types if they are openly supporting or practicing market timing?

I won't suspect that you get many yeas.

Staying the course means staying the course all the time, not just when you think it may be OK to do so.

Stay the course.
by k66
Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2827

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Ah, yes--this time it is different!

But otherwise stay the course.
by k66
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."
Replies: 55
Views: 5751

Re: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."

David Jay wrote:
David Jay wrote:My son is 24. If he uses this strategy (and I grub stake him for, say, $1,000), he can own the entire global stock market (current global market cap ~ 69 trillion) by the time he is 60.

COOL!


If he starts with $1, it will take him a decade longer...


Patience is a virtue.
by k66
Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 191
Views: 19970

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

What is/are the alternative(s)? Are there any that can provide same/similar service at 15 bp (or less than 25 bp)?
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4465

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: m For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearish, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean a damn thing, that it is not predict...
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4465

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: m For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearing, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it doesn't mean a damn thing, that it is not predicti...
by k66
Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement thanks
Replies: 12
Views: 1646

Re: retirement thanks

I will second the congratulations Vectorizer! You said that you retired from Vanguard though?
by k66
Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26480

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Mudpuppy wrote:...so why not brag about being in last place too?


I do it whenever I can!
by k66
Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 4340

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

I have a spreadsheet whereby I compute my own personal retirement plan against historical bond & equity returns including my own expected age of retirement (age 60), planned deferral of federal pensions (age 70), declining spending program via D. Blanchett , and current income tax regimes (note:...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1375

Re: Incremental retirement?

... There are lots of unknowns here, the answers won't be simple. Interesting points. Raises some questions. Q1: Do you have any references with more information about (un)safe withdrawal rates for Europeans? Q2: I understand that many SWR models exist, each with different assumptions and risks, bu...