Search found 355 matches

by k66
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 4692

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

... In fact, what an investment provider gets as a fraction of what you would otherwise have had depends only on their fees, not returns. Looked at more precisely, the provider gets a fraction equal to 1–(1+c)^(–T) of what would otherwise be my wealth, given fee c and time horizon T. Is the relatio...
by k66
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 20
Views: 1907

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

My broker offers a small discount in their trade commission for those who make more that 150 trades per quarter. Even when I was most active, I was only making ~100 trades per quarter, but I bet that there are lots of folks out there who are members of the frequent trader's club. In a perverse kind ...
by k66
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under
Replies: 9
Views: 1110

Re: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under

Once a year is enough. 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949 This thread is pointless. Agreed. Daily movements are almost entirely random. If I were to make an under/over prediction, I would constantly pick "over" regardless (and be correc...
by k66
Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning
Replies: 17
Views: 2437

Re: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning

If recoveries followed crashes more reliably than by chance, you would expect historical sequences to show a higher certainty equivalence than randomly drawn sequences, but they do not. It is never going to be possible to prove that a random walk is the correct model for retirement planning, but I ...
by k66
Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 1916

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

Mr. Roth is always spot on.
by k66
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices
Replies: 11
Views: 1609

Re: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices

Hmmm... a couple of trains of thought: A) Evolution of the markets continue; humans are fully replaced by Smart-B 'bots, and they all now routinely "beat the market". Except they are now collectively the market, but continue to outperform by the old standard(s). So the passive indexer (the...
by k66
Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal experience over time? [How far from retirement, time spent investing]
Replies: 31
Views: 3025

Re: Personal experience over time?

I am a 50 y.o. accumulator and, at the end of next month, I will have been a BH-style investor for 7 years. I am happy with my results and have a "since inception" (7 year) annualized return of approx 8%. My AA has varied a bit over those years but I have now gravitated to, and am comforta...
by k66
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Replies: 2
Views: 595

Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?

Did you mean 1871? I'm not sure that there are good data going back to 1826 and even if there were, it might be considered a bit stale (as in, the market operating conditions are vastly different since then... ditto for 1871 for that matter). I believe Shiller's data is what you are wanting (downloa...
by k66
Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 4237

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

I know what you mean. Regardless of how I, or or others, feel about the current state of bonds; I am still inclined to ignore the noise, stay my course, and follow my plan. And for the record, I am neither bullish or bearish on bonds; but I am buying bonds because my equities are above their target ...
by k66
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett's Bet"
Replies: 18
Views: 2429

Re: "Buffett's Bet"

What's more interesting, as Mr. Sisti reminds us, is not that the S&P500 fund continues to shellacque the hedge fund fund-of-funds, but rather that there were no other hedge fund managers who took the bet. Where was their confidence when it came time to show off their apparent skills? More likel...
by k66
Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 17575

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

You are asking BH-types if they are openly supporting or practicing market timing?

I won't suspect that you get many yeas.

Staying the course means staying the course all the time, not just when you think it may be OK to do so.

Stay the course.
by k66
Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2352

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Ah, yes--this time it is different!

But otherwise stay the course.
by k66
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."
Replies: 55
Views: 5323

Re: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."

David Jay wrote:
David Jay wrote:My son is 24. If he uses this strategy (and I grub stake him for, say, $1,000), he can own the entire global stock market (current global market cap ~ 69 trillion) by the time he is 60.

COOL!


If he starts with $1, it will take him a decade longer...


Patience is a virtue.
by k66
Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16181

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

What is/are the alternative(s)? Are there any that can provide same/similar service at 15 bp (or less than 25 bp)?
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4064

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearish, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it do...
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4064

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearing, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it doe...
by k66
Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement thanks
Replies: 12
Views: 1467

Re: retirement thanks

I will second the congratulations Vectorizer! You said that you retired from Vanguard though?
by k66
Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 163
Views: 12365

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Mudpuppy wrote:...so why not brag about being in last place too?


I do it whenever I can!
by k66
Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 4123

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

I have a spreadsheet whereby I compute my own personal retirement plan against historical bond & equity returns including my own expected age of retirement (age 60), planned deferral of federal pensions (age 70), declining spending program via D. Blanchett , and current income tax regimes (note:...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1300

Re: Incremental retirement?

... There are lots of unknowns here, the answers won't be simple. Interesting points. Raises some questions. Q1: Do you have any references with more information about (un)safe withdrawal rates for Europeans? Q2: I understand that many SWR models exist, each with different assumptions and risks, bu...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1300

Re: Incremental retirement?

Question: If I have accumulated 50% of my retirement savings (based on SWR model) then is it safe to "50% retire" immediately? I mean: Could I immediately start to draw half of my living costs from my retirement portfolio (supposing this were accessible) and then continue working to (a) p...
by k66
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 10
Views: 1624

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

whodidntante wrote:True, but I've heard it goes down sometimes.


yes, maybe in the past, but this time it is different, no?

i mean let's look at the facts: up 1.85% in four days implies a gain of over 300% by the end of the year... it's just too easy!
by k66
Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 675
Views: 19842

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

1818.36 Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year. http://i68.tinypic.com/68x72b.jpg (The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.) http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern o...
by k66
Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 93
Views: 6654

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I use 3% (based on historical data) in order to compute real return projections. I also realize that it may not be what we eventually experience.
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 163
Views: 12365

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

2016 closes the book on the Wrecked Files--a deep and often unmeaningful search for higher intelligence in the stock market. Investigators searched with unfruitful passion to uncover hidden meanings in the ticker tapes and expose higher level conspiracies at work in the trading desks around the worl...
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?
Replies: 39
Views: 3279

Re: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?

I'm sure there are tons of investment professionals that have run the numbers, but have there ever been any actual patterns identified, or does every day/month actually have the same up/down ratio? For example, Mondays being more often down than a Wednesday. Or Januaries being more often down than ...
by k66
Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder
Replies: 14
Views: 1018

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder

Only one trading day left for me to get out of the basement. Has the S&P 500 ever had a 1000 point day before...?!
by k66
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: O`Shares and John Bogle
Replies: 9
Views: 1369

Re: O`Shares and John Bogle

Ok folks. I`m sticking with my VTI. Thanks for all your responses. As of this posting, the Morningstar chart shows the following since the inception of OUSA in 2015 (keep in mind inexact dates will change values): OUSA:+16.36% VTI:+13.05% VOO:+13.39% An ER of 0.48 was not more than the increased re...
by k66
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?
Replies: 9
Views: 1080

What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?

I think that we have all aware of what a rebalancing band is and what it is used for, but most examples and suggestions seem to revolve around a classic two-fund/asset portfolio model (i.e. +/- 5% in a prototypical 60% Equities/40% Bonds portfolio). Rebalancing But what particular values or threshol...
by k66
Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: "Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose"
Replies: 9
Views: 1720

Re: NY Times: "Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose"

But now consider the return after deducting a 20 percent performance fee. In years one and two, the fund manager earns $20,000 and $20,400 for a total of $40,400. The fund’s manager earns nothing in years three and four. After deducting the fees, the investor would end up after the four years with ...
by k66
Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles
Replies: 7
Views: 833

Re: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles

also bear in mind that once an advantageous thing becomes known, it will soon become arbitraged away.

If these cycles have become publicly exposed, you can probably also rest assured that the special Presidential Cycle $20 bills are no longer available on public sidewalks.
by k66
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FI planning based on current annual expense
Replies: 43
Views: 2027

Re: FI planning based on current annual expense

KlangFool -- Can you clarify? It sounds like there would be an expected period when the individual would not be working but also not drawing any pensions. If this is the case then there would be a "kink in the road" so to speak in that the individual would at some point (or maybe several p...
by k66
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: discount brokerage vs full service brokerage
Replies: 3
Views: 560

Re: discount brokerage vs full service brokerage

Is there a difference in the ability to fulfill trades between discount brokers and full service brokers/brokerage firms? This is a spin off question from the hedge fund thread, but why don't hedge funds and high net worth individuals also use discount brokerage firms for placing orders? The bigges...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1694

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Ethelred wrote:This. Three 3-standard-deviation events in a row without a recovery in between isn't three black swans. It's a 9-standard-deviation black unicorn werewolf dragon.


LOL. Quote of the Year!
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got cash - what to do?
Replies: 9
Views: 1884

Re: Got cash - what to do?

Any debts you can pay off? I don't really subscribe to the notion that you should just blindly plow money into the markets without regard to valuations. To me that seems no different than the person who walks into the store firmly committed to paying the listed price for everything knowing full wel...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got cash - what to do?
Replies: 9
Views: 1884

Re: Got cash - what to do?

Hello fellow Bogleheads! OK, so I have come into some cash which will now currently comprise ~50% of my portfolio. My entire portfolio was in VWRL along with a LifeStrategy fund 80/20. I have always tried to ignore the noise, never check my balance (except for when Vanguard send me a statement - ev...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Replies: 44
Views: 5056

Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]

Forget the Dow; I need the S&P 500 to pick up about another 1000 points in the next 2-1/2 weeks.
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1694

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

The 4% SWR is an unverifiable proposition that, based on past market performances, a given asset-allocated portfolio (usually 60% equities, 40% bonds) is likely to survive future market conditions for a given period (usually 30 years) at the given initial value of the portfolio (usually 4%) but is ...
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1694

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Start: $60/$40 = $100 SWR = 4.0%. 25% loss: $45/$30 =$75 SWR = 5.3%. 25% loss: $34/$22 = $56 AWR = 7.1%. Two back to back Black Swan equity losses forces an income cutback. Start: $40/$60 = $100 SWR = 4.0%. 15% loss: $35/$50 =$85 SWR = 4.7%. 15% loss: $30/$42 = $72 SWR = 5.6% 15% loss: $25/$36 = $6...
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1694

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

I thought the whole purpose of a 4% SWR was that your AWR may go up, but eventually the market would recover and your portfolio would survive over a 30-year period? The 4% SWR is an unverifiable proposition that, based on past market performances, a given asset-allocated portfolio (usually 60% equi...
by k66
Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad to sell after a drop... or any other time
Replies: 3
Views: 433

Re: Bad to sell after a drop... or any other time

For myself, I really only plan to sell under two circumstances: 1. To rebalance (but in reality, because I am still in the accumulation phase, I simply direct new cash to purchase that which is most under-balanced), and 2. to raise cash for withdrawal(s) during decumulation (and I'm not there yet). ...
by k66
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3401
Views: 875046

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

GoldenFinch wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.


At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.


Yeah--where's the fun in that?!
by k66
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3307

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

...and cue "Stay the Course".

Italy in, out, up, down, or all around sideways--it doesn't matter: Stay the Course.
by k66
Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the unknowability of the market?
Replies: 30
Views: 2151

Re: What is the unknowability of the market?

TomCat96: I think you are asking for some type of quantification of a non-quantifiable property. As Valuethinker points out, Black Swans exist (we know that), but we can't dimensionslize them because, by their very nature, we don't know what they are or when they will actually manifest themselves.
by k66
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2657

Re: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?

Don't assume that any given market will recover. We have good precedent that they will, but exceptions always occur. Ours is not to reason why, it is but to do and buy (and rebalance). Of course we should assume the market will recover, the issue is over how long. The market will generally at least...
by k66
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2657

Re: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?

Don't assume that any given market will recover. We have good precedent that they will, but exceptions always occur.

Ours is not to reason why, it is but to do and buy (and rebalance).
by k66
Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US index
Replies: 8
Views: 1142

Re: US index

I'd be curious to see how many have language in their Investment Policy Statement that addresses situations like these and how they anticipated handling them. I have some language but it is vague--and intentionally so. It is meant more as a catch-all for any odd, unexpected, or reactionary kinds of...
by k66
Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?
Replies: 99
Views: 12215

Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Toons wrote:Time Not Timing.
Put the compounding machine to work.
ASAP :moneybag


+1: We can never say this enough!
by k66
Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting the x% spending rule
Replies: 27
Views: 2977

Re: Adjusting the x% spending rule

The x% spending rule says to spend x% of your portfolio the first year in retirement and to adjust spending upward each year with inflation. Bengen studied a 4% spending rule. It has the advantage of allowing for stable spending -- unless the money runs out. The initial x is chosen based on a trade...

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