Search found 402 matches

by k66
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 607

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

Thanks for the answer. It does work for mutual funds, but alas not for Stocks. I will keep optimistic for another reply. Drgolf Google finance lookup for stocks works for me. (I don't think they use Yahoo) True. The function can return both stock and MF data and from different exchanges as well. Es...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1827

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff... In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 yea...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 607

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

If you use Google Sheets, you can use the "googlefinance" function to retrieve price data.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
by k66
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1102329

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just kidding .... S&P 500 hits intraday all-time high at 2,588.51 Such cruelty! :happy I know that one day many will be posting seriously to this thread. But until that happens I am going to continue getting a chuckle when it is bumped :beer Maybe for the interim we should have a "U.S. Stocks on Fi...
by k66
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3543

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

Welcome to the forum eddyd!

(To other readers and for reference, Part V starts on p.60 of the linked document in the OP).

Could it be that Schwab et al are the custodians of X% of the listed funds that have been individually acquired by their customers? I don't know--I'm just asking the question.
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 380

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

... In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is a needless cost and I focus entirely on maximizing the number of index-related holdi...
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 380

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

Are you sure that you have to hold investments in Canadian Dollars? In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs: VAB VCN and VTI VXUS I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is...
by k66
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1399

Re: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings

Absolutely yes. Even discounted for inflation, a lump-sum invested at t=0 has a strong probability of growing to a value larger then investing the equivalent principal sum over the interval t=0 to t=T. I say probably only because we don't know the future absolutely and can otherwise only infer what ...
by k66
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3806

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... An interesting idea, I think, is something Ken Fisher proposed in one of his books/articles, I have no idea how successful it is, but he suggests going out and collecting the short term estimates from lots analysts and public pundits, divide their opinions into one of four categories: "Up a lot...
by k66
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3036

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I recall it well not because it really made any direct impression on me, but I do recall my undergrad Engineering Economics prof getting really wound up about it... I look back on it now and see it as the major event that it was. If I can learn anything from this, it is that you can be completely ob...
by k66
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 787

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

food for thought from an older thread on similar topic:

Recent historical returns on 50:50 AA?
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]
Replies: 4
Views: 679

Re: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]

Yes it’s true that that history does not repeat exactly, but it seems that financial news headlines recur almost verbatim!
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 642

Re: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF

A few oddities that I see: a) as you noted, it has only been operational for a very short period of time (April 2016) b) it appears to be an "inverse" (leveraged) type of fund which is usually an unproductive investment for the long-run c) it executed a 2:1 split at the end of last year (why?) d) it...
by k66
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1592

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? Thanks for answering such a silly question. :| I don't know if your investments have become any riskier recently -- and neith...
by k66
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Books Debunked
Replies: 24
Views: 4097

Re: Investing Books Debunked

Ahh, the Turtles! I read two books from Curtis Faith (an original Turtle) "Way of the Turtle" and "Inside the Mind of the Turtles". I also read "the Complete Turtle Trader", by Michael Covel, a Turtle follower who chronicled the in-programme and post-programme history of several Turtles (including M...
by k66
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 6679

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

I don't see how going with data back to 1930 would help one evaluate how it would help going forward from 2017. I am always skeptical of using very old data with imaginary costs and practically imaginary numbers and quite different laws and economy, then applying that to the here and now and the fu...
by k66
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 52
Views: 10752

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Will the "googlefinance()" function (as employed in Google sheets) still work during the shutdown?
by k66
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10101

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Bull AND Bear for the next 5 year? Absolutely.

I'm good to go.
by k66
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 766

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hello wstalcup, I am by no means an expert on the topic but this may help explain some of your questions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BATS_Global_Markets In my own crude mental framework, I liken different exchanges to different used car lots: each can sell any type of vehicle make that they can a...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8359

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

The only flaw is you could prudently spend a lot more money if you wanted to. If you want to travel more, buy a nicer car, hire out some household tasks, or increase your quality of life in any way, but do not do it for fear of not having enough money later in life, I think that is a mistake. You w...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 8359

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Folks, Someone else is discussing portfolio construction for a very safe withdrawal. But, does that make any sense if your withdrawal rate is 2% or lower? Won't simple 60/40 portfolio works? There must be a gap in my thinking. For example, if the social security cover 50% of a person's retirement e...
by k66
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 2935

Re: Learning from loss

I learned that I did not know enough to take on the markets after I thought that I knew enough to take on the markets.
by k66
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You
Replies: 3
Views: 2012

Re: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You

It's an interesting plug indeed. Instead of arguing that the passive index route is the more effective investing path, the authors suggest that rather than getting continuously beat up by 1% Mutual Fund fees or settling for "average" market return, a person is better off riding their Foolish hot-pic...
by k66
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 14599

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

my own spreadsheet output using data from 1928 to present (SP 500 for equities and 10-yr Treasuries for bonds, both adjusted for CPI) would suggest SWRs of 4.15% for a 25 year period, 3.81% for a 30 year period, 3.64% for a 35 year period and 3.80% for a 40 year period. Must be a typo. SWR can only...
by k66
Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 14599

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

4.5% rule? I didn't know this. Thanks for your question. Before I answer it specifically, why don't we dispense with some preliminaries, so we are all on the same page? The "4% rule" is actually the "4.5% rule"- I modified it some years ago on the basis of new research. The 4.5% is the percentage y...
by k66
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Investing at Peaks
Replies: 29
Views: 3748

Re: Case for Investing at Peaks

... What do you do to convince yourself to invest even if the market is frothy? I know that if I only invest at the "worst" times (as you were alluding to by your reference to the "worlds worst market timer") and can still do OK, then by investing (more or less continuously) between all the potenti...
by k66
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?
Replies: 1
Views: 304

Re: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?

As I am sometimes prone to saying: Fill your Boots.

S&P500 Component Performances

It looks like for today, a net down day for the index, there were 28% Bulls and 72% Bears.
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians
Replies: 4
Views: 850

Re: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians

... Link - http://www.sunlife.ca/Canada/GRS+matters/GRS+matters+articles/2017/Breaking+News/Sun+Lifes+next+generation+target+date+retirement+solution+Canadas+newest+retirement+innovation?vgnLocale=en_CA BobK The introduction of this solution shifts the focus of the retirement conversation away from...
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "sleeve"?
Replies: 34
Views: 3535

Re: What is a "sleeve"?

My friend's financial advisor is encouraging her to go with an "end sleeve" and to avoid index funds at all costs :D [pun intended] What is an "end sleeve"? I don't find anything on the wiki about it. A sleeve could also be a box of three golf balls. Perhaps your friend's advisor is angling for tha...
by k66
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: black swan/fooled by randomness
Replies: 11
Views: 2427

Re: black swan/fooled by randomness

I am looking forward to reading Fooled By Randomness . Apparently Taleb discusses Monte Carlo in that book. Over a decade later, he insists that Monte Carlo is the best way to learn probability: To the freq. question, "which book to learn probability?" DO NOT start w/books. Do zillions of Monte Car...
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)
Replies: 6
Views: 1744

Re: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)

Didn't we already know this? And as much as Bengen is the progenitor of the 4% notion, there are some "flaws" that I don't like with his methodology (that were better controlled for in the Trinity study).
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 27
Views: 3607

Re: Bubbles

Yes it is a great piece -- thought-provoking for sure.

But also covered in this thread here: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 5091

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

Read the Illinois Lottery is suspending all Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the state because of the ongoing budget crisis. _ Maybe they shouldn't do that... maybe the Governor should be buying all kinds of tickets in order to have a statistically reasonable chance of hitting the jackpot. I gu...
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"
Replies: 13
Views: 1322

Re: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"

Well, maybe it it will be cool and jazzy at first but I think it may also have less rhythm and too many blues for what a long term investor wants to hear.

Also,no mention of fees. That's certainly not music to my ears either.
by k66
Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive
Replies: 15
Views: 2787

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive

It would appear though that persistence does exist... persistence of inconsistence (within a group).
by k66
Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"
Replies: 26
Views: 4673

Re: "I trail my bogy by 31 percentage points"

Here is a snapshot of her project portfolio at the end of April this year:

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/invest ... folio.html
by k66
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 4112

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

Also, the nominal 4% rule is to withdraw 4% of the starting balance, and annually adjust the amount of the withdrawal for inflation. It's a rule of thumb, and is currently considered a bit too aggressive to guarantee. Like all rules of thumb, you have to adjust as you go. I don't think you are supp...
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment complications
Replies: 5
Views: 824

Re: Investment complications

Congratulations FutureShock.

My own "a-ha" realization came about 9 years ago reading the "Naked Investor" but then almost another two years after that to get fully adapted with a BH style portfolio and mindset.

It's never too late to start!
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 220
Views: 29017

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Hmmm, I see that my JNS (Janus Capital) has merged with Henderson PLC resulting in a new listing on the NYSE for Janus-Henderson under the ticker "JHG" News Release The new JHG seems to be trading in the $30 range but the "closing" price for Janus/JNS from last Friday was in the $14 range (implying ...
by k66
Fri May 26, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model
Replies: 6
Views: 993

Re: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model

Hello I think I have stumbled on the perfect formula 50% Index fund (total US) 15% GOOGL 15% AMZN 15% NVDA 5% JNJ, V, AAPL I don't think it is possible to beat my formula. The individual equities are all super cheap relative to 20 years from now so you won't go wrong even buying in after the run up...
by k66
Tue May 23, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 9159

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

frankmorris wrote: ...
What am I missing? Where is the bubble? If valuations are high, where are the corresponding bad business models that usually accompany unsustainable bubbles?
...
Who knows, who cares? Stay the course (and rebalance as required).

What are we missing?
by k66
Mon May 22, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need help with ER calculations
Replies: 3
Views: 383

Re: Need help with ER calculations

HKboggles: As you suspected, the answer may be very simple indeed. You could really just calculate the percentage that one fee contributes to the total fee that you pay. For example calculate the weighted result of any one fund in your portfolio to the weighted average of all your funds: (10% x 0.25...
by k66
Tue May 16, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"
Replies: 10
Views: 1154

Re: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"

Or perhaps this could be a great ploy to attract investors who might otherwise grudgingly place money in a passive fund because they finally realized how expensive active funds really are. This would offer "active at passive" pricing as the sales pitch but could then be nothing more than a closet in...
by k66
Sun May 07, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 15
Views: 2905

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

I track the value of one of my retirement accounts--one which I don't make any new contributions--and in the last column in my tracking spreadsheet, I note whether the portfolio has or has not made a new high. Over the past seven years, the portfolio has made a new high at month's end 45% of the tim...
by k66
Mon May 01, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 206
Views: 18817

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

When I first started a BH approach (7 years ago), I assumed I would be able to build a portfolio for 25 bp and allowed for another 5 bp to manage the accounts (e.g. buy/sell costs when rebalancing). I am currently at 8 bp (when perfectly balanced) and <2 bp for transactional costs. Pencil me in for ...
by k66
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell in May and go away - not this year?
Replies: 20
Views: 4033

Re: Sell in May and go away - not this year?

inbox788 wrote: ...
If you knew for a fact the market would remain flat for for the summer and it would rise 10% in winter, where would you move or park your cash in the summer?
I might be inclined to leave my equities alone and continue taking the dividends. In fact, I know I would.

Stay the Course!
by k66
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 5793

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

... In fact, what an investment provider gets as a fraction of what you would otherwise have had depends only on their fees, not returns. Looked at more precisely, the provider gets a fraction equal to 1–(1+c)^(–T) of what would otherwise be my wealth, given fee c and time horizon T. Is the relatio...
by k66
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 31
Views: 3681

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

My broker offers a small discount in their trade commission for those who make more that 150 trades per quarter. Even when I was most active, I was only making ~100 trades per quarter, but I bet that there are lots of folks out there who are members of the frequent trader's club. In a perverse kind ...
by k66
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under
Replies: 9
Views: 1401

Re: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under

Once a year is enough. 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949 This thread is pointless. Agreed. Daily movements are almost entirely random. If I were to make an under/over prediction, I would constantly pick "over" regardless (and be correct 60+ percent ...