Search found 289 matches

by k66
Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: oil&gas bankruptcies
Replies: 8
Views: 943

Re: oil&gas bankruptcies

What are you missing? But what are you asking? Are you looking to extrapolate a future macro-economic scenario based on very small pieces of data? Consider that there are an indeterminate number of variables involved in this non-linear system with constantly moving boundry conditions. Expecting a co...
by k66
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about non-invested $
Replies: 20
Views: 1935

Re: How think about non-invested $

Cash is part of your AA - so it should be included. Doesn't make sense otherwise. Exactly. Too often we forget that there are three primary assets by which we should construct an investment portfolio: equities, bonds and cash. Even if we conceptually lump cash & bonds under the same roof, we sh...
by k66
Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9146

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

Given that many of tomorrow's corporate mountains are likely as yet unformed, we should perhaps consider that the upper limit of the market remains conceptually unbound.

Can a Company Live Forever?
by k66
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 3997

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

Consider that individual stocks rise and fall over a certain lifespan. Holding any one stock in perpetuity is likely not a winning proposition. Consider also that multiple stocks, as a group, have better collective price appreciation. It might not be easily explained by theory but we see it material...
by k66
Sat Jul 09, 2016 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: gearing [using Leverage]
Replies: 32
Views: 1953

Re: gearing

Can you explain your use of the term gearing w.r.t. your own portfolio?

From Investopedia:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gearing.asp

Are you perhaps meaning (on) margin instead?
by k66
Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan's stock market in 1989?
Replies: 6
Views: 914

Re: Japan's stock market in 1989?

So in our portfolios, should we have at least 50% international stocks and bonds? Since we won't know how the domestic side or the international side of stocks and bonds will perform in the future, wouldn't this mix be the safest bet that also allows for the greatest returns? Not necessarily--I wan...
by k66
Mon Jun 27, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alt Funds Not So Good on Brexit Friday (-.71%)
Replies: 9
Views: 1037

Re: Alt Funds Not So Good on Brexit Friday (-.71%)

Are there any data on how hedge funds performed during this time (from the last few months onward as Brexit became bigger and bigger news). I suppose it is way to early, but it would still be interesting to see how they negotiated this financial pothole too.
by k66
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would today be a good day to rebalance?
Replies: 34
Views: 3351

Re: Would today be a good day to rebalance?

Once the remainder of my quarterly & monthly dividends arrive, I will be buying what ever fund is furthest behind its target allocation. I would be doing this regardless of the latest news may be.
by k66
Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy LNKD? [LinkedIn]
Replies: 14
Views: 1083

Re: Buy LNKD? [LinkedIn]

Am I buying LNKD? I will tell you what I tell my brother-in-law every time he starts going on about his latest hot pick, "Yeah, I bought some of that too"... meaning I bought it inside VTI, but I don't tell him that part.
by k66
Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing 2x/week (rather than lump sum) is the best thing I've done.
Replies: 32
Views: 2936

Re: Investing 2x/week (rather than lump sum) is the best thing I've done.

Have there been any studies or analyses done wrt the granularity of contributions made? Obviously one needs historical daily price fluctuations to see what the benefit(s) may be. I think we have seen or read example cases where bi-weekly or monthly contributions generally win-out over waiting to mak...
by k66
Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BAC stock [Bank of America]
Replies: 4
Views: 659

Re: BAC stock [Bank of America]

Does it really matter?
by k66
Mon May 16, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How valuable is my defined benefit pension?
Replies: 8
Views: 1625

Re: How valuable is my defined benefit pension?

One approach is to price out a single premium annuity that would pay out the same. +1 http://immediateannuities.com to get quotes I entered $300k for a single 65 yo male (entered state = NJ at random) to receive $1614/mo ($19,368/yr) for life. I'm not sure if the quote provided for inflation adjust...
by k66
Sun May 15, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living with the 4% Rule
Replies: 19
Views: 2683

Re: Living with the 4% Rule

My understanding of the 4% rule is as follows. Do you see it differently on any point(s)? 3. You should fund a savings account from the proceeds of the 4% for large expenses that don't recur on an annual basis, like a new car, home remodeling, and special trips, etc. No fair hitting the portfolio t...
by k66
Thu May 05, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The crossover point [When can you retire?]
Replies: 59
Views: 10124

Re: The crossover point

Sequence of returns is a real concern for any portfolio period. If, and only if, you do have flexibility in your spending will it less of a concern. But not every retiree has sufficient flexibility.
by k66
Wed May 04, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds in your portfolio?
Replies: 99
Views: 7225

Re: How many funds in your portfolio?

4 currently (VAB, VCN, VTI, VXUS), but looking to get it down to 3 or less.
by k66
Tue May 03, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question about simulators' failure rate
Replies: 6
Views: 759

Re: A question about simulators' failure rate

I ultimately decided that evaluating a failure rate was essentially useless to me for two reasons. First, I intend to draw down my retirement portfolio using RMD-like withdrawals (not unlike VPW) from a tax-advantaged account and will supplement with federal pensions. In that context, I would never ...
by k66
Mon May 02, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Performance of 10 yr vs Total Bond
Replies: 5
Views: 704

Re: Historical Performance of 10 yr vs Total Bond

... I get 5.9% for Intermediate Treasury and 5.64% for Total Bond from 1992-2016... So a 26 bp management fee (approx)? Seems reasonable I guess. I also use Damodaran's data for S&P 500 and 10 yr Treasurys. To account for MERs and other trading costs, inefficiencies, etc. In my spreadsheet calc...
by k66
Sun May 01, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Numeracy and Wealth
Replies: 44
Views: 6455

Re: Numeracy and Wealth

Here's a numeracy test:

https://www.kent.ac.uk/careers/tests/mathstest.htm

in case you wanted to self-evaluate.
by k66
Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 100,000
Replies: 33
Views: 5507

Re: Dow 100,000

The DJIA was at ~3250 in late 1992 and has since experienced an expansion of 5.5 times that value to reach ~18k today including both the explosive increases through the 1990s and the sombre reality of the new millennium . Another 5.5X expansion would take it to the target 100k value. There's no reas...
by k66
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you follow the 4% rule?
Replies: 23
Views: 3138

Re: Should you follow the 4% rule?

As an actual withdrawal method, the 4% strategy is pretty limited and of no real practical value. The only significance that I see is in determining adequacy of the portfolio size to endure a reasonable retirement period--i.e. If your portfolio is approximately 25x your retirement spending expectati...
by k66
Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10
Replies: 29
Views: 2943

Re: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10

Interesting--thank you Larry.

Can the CAPE-10 be calculated from 1960 onward, similar to the time period used for CAPE-5 and -6 histories? Would the CAPE-10 average then be a bit higher and the apparent overvaluation become lower as a result?
by k66
Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time
Replies: 14
Views: 1434

Re: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time

I'm not being facetious; this is exactly what you need to do in order to wait out an investment successfully. 1. Determine which investment you want to make (stock, fund, real estate, etc). 2. Prepare a future price history of the investment with sufficient accuracy. 3. Select the most appropriate ...
by k66
Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the economic machine works
Replies: 13
Views: 1761

Re: How the economic machine works

I have seen other cycle-based constructs of the economy. In one, there are three levels of the overall cycle that superimpose a primary 64 year wave having individual sub-cycles of 16 years each and tertiary set having four 4-year cycles within each of those. No rationale was ever given--it seemed t...
by k66
Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time
Replies: 14
Views: 1434

Re: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time

I'm not being facetious; this is exactly what you need to do in order to wait out an investment successfully. 1. Determine which investment you want to make (stock, fund, real estate, etc). 2. Prepare a future price history of the investment with sufficient accuracy. 3. Select the most appropriate p...
by k66
Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need S&P 500 total return calculator
Replies: 17
Views: 1618

Re: Need S&P 500 total return calculator

tdub wrote:Based on the site lack_ey found it looks like 1 dollar invested in 1950 would be nearly 1000 today.

Image
Image


And when run with CPI included, the annualized index return yields 3.7% (7.2% w/ dividends reinvested).
by k66
Mon Apr 04, 2016 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Simple vs. Complex"
Replies: 12
Views: 1980

Re: "Simple vs. Complex"

One of the biggest hurdles I had to get over was the implicit need to build a complex portfolio--seemingly because investing in the market(s) was complex as well. Once I got my head around the notion that having a simpler portfolio was a better, more durable solution, then I could sleep much sounder.
by k66
Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questrade
Replies: 3
Views: 335

Re: Questrade

... Moreover, they truly are a discount broker and the cost-cutting shows if you try to do anything out of the ordinary in terms of money movement, currencies, Norbert's gambit, funding from other accounts, etc. - expect repeated long phone conversations following even longer waits listening to rec...
by k66
Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a bunny market?
Replies: 13
Views: 2127

Re: Are we in a bunny market?

I can't actually recall the last bunny market, but if this is one, then maybe all I have to say is "What's up Doc?" and get ready for the "Duck Season". But maybe that's just splitting hares.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9-k5J4RxQdE
by k66
Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting stock market returns accurately?
Replies: 52
Views: 3416

Re: Predicting stock market returns accurately?

The other problem, and frankly why I wouldn't bother looking at his work, is the overwhelming probability that he is curve-fitting a data set. And knowing that market returns are the result of a complex (non-linear) system, attempting to extrapolate using an explicitly linear model is a near-perfect...
by k66
Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You Are Thinking About Risk All Wrong"
Replies: 26
Views: 3357

Re: "You Are Thinking About Risk All Wrong"

I don't think that I am thinking about risk incorrectly provided that I think about the context in which it is being applied. Yes, the 1-year std. deviation may be 20% and that is fine if I am considering potential effects for the short duration. It is also correct to recognize the longer term std. ...
by k66
Sun Mar 13, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Late Starters
Replies: 61
Views: 5801

Re: Late Starters

Started when I was 33, and now turning 50 this year. Early years savings rate was very paltry in comparison to what it is now--I really put the hammer down 10 years ago at age 40. In fact, I was updating my savings speadsheet last week and noted that 90% of my total savings occurred in the last 10 y...
by k66
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 74
Views: 7243

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

... I know this is a very general question, and completely depends on one's personal situation. But that said, if you were writing a book, do you have a rule of thumb? Obviously Charley is much more aggressive than Burt. I am really just looking for a pulse on how aggressive Bogleheads' tend to be....
by k66
Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What withdrawal % are you planning on?
Replies: 89
Views: 7049

Re: What withdrawal % are you planning on?

MIpreRetirey wrote:6-7% until SS @ 66 in 6 yrs. Then 1-2% - Have alloc. = 40/30/30%CDs. for seq return mindset


Similar to my plan, but still 10 years out for me.
by k66
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 775

Re: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?

Welcome to the forum Purple_Haze! From my own perspective, your option no. 2 would appear to be the more advantageous. I presume you are holding your investment(s) in a taxable account. Is there a tax-advantaged account that would be available for you to hold them in? I would also assume that a US R...
by k66
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [REVISED] Losing money to change asset allocation?
Replies: 14
Views: 1196

Re: Losing money to change asset allocation?

What was the adjoining S&P500 index fund at when you made your allocation to VFX?

Would it not also have taken a hit recently as well? If it turns out that both funds have done comparatively bad (better) over the same time frame, then the hit from re-allocating is lessened.
by k66
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your average return?
Replies: 17
Views: 2167

Re: What is your average return?

1 year: -2.25%
2 year: +5.55%
3 year: +7.03%
5 year: +5.86%
69 mo: +6.81% (this is "since inception")

All figures nominal.
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 35
Views: 3708

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Yes, absolutely. My company stock often has periods of great performance, but regardless, once a year I sell all the shares that have vested and convert to index holdings. I haven't done the actual math, but I am sure that I could have been further ahead had I kept everything in the share ownership ...
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan reduces interest rates below 0
Replies: 16
Views: 3051

Re: Japan reduces interest rates below 0

I always took negative rates (at a central bank) to be required to get commercial banks to an ultra-low rate. In other words, if commercial banks are charging prime+X% and the central banks deem that the economy needs them at less than X%, then the central bank has dip into negative rate territory t...
by k66
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1194

Re: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Led_Zeppelin_-_Led_Zeppelin_%281969%29_front_cover.png Dazed and Confused: Been Dazed and Confused for so long it's not true. Mean-market woman, never bargained for you. Lots of people talkin', few of them know Soul of the market was created below. You...
by k66
Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 106
Views: 9233

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Doesn't the 4% rule increase withdrawals every year based on CPI? I don't know about folks here but my salary doesn't go always go up with inflation. Sometimes it's flat and on a few occasions (namely 2008-2011), it even goes down. When that happens, I don't increase my spending by how much the CPI...
by k66
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 8687

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

They're saying we're ultimately going to dive to 14200, that's a hard pill to swallow. Would we be in a bear market at that point or a full blown recession? Does it matter? It's a guess (but more specifically a sensationalizing sound bite designed to provoke you) that may or may not happen near-ter...
by k66
Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years
Replies: 9
Views: 1955

Re: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years

Younger investors, in particular, are avoiding stocks. Between 1970 and 1975, the number of investors declined in every age group but one: individuals 65 and older. While the number of investors under 65 dropped by about 25%, the number of investors over 65 jumped by more than 30%. Only the elderly...
by k66
Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down
Replies: 32
Views: 2463

Re: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down

No... sometimes I manage a chuckle when I see a sharp reverse during the day (and then there is always a plethora of commentary as to what caused it, almost all of which is pure speculation). On a really entertaining day we will see two or even three sharp reversals.
by k66
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 7780

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

My bond allocation is currently Age less 25 and doing fine--just like the last three or four, or how ever many of these we have had in the past six years. Larger declines in equities will only prompt re-balancing from bonds into equities.
by k66
Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 10840

Re: CORRECTION...Corection...Correction

What does it matter if it, or any other index/market is or is not in a correction (from an BH investor perspective)?

Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride.
by k66
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?
Replies: 3
Views: 570

Re: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?

The index "gapped" over night -- i.e. the index value changes overnight from the previous day's close (in this case 1187.13 according to Google Finance) to today's opening (or 1202.29 again from Google Finance). It closed today at 1189.23, so it is up 0.18% from yesterday's close but down ...
by k66
Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 175
Views: 12278

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Alas poor "Trixter" was not able elude the long reach of the 2015 market psychosis and will itself go under the knife to be dismembered for shark bait. In its place this season, we bring you an intrepid new adventure involving strange, weird, and unbelievable tales of unequaled equity pick...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4859

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Congratulations Victoria! And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well... Aw k66! - Be upbeat! You ended up in last place, BUT you didn't "lose" the contest - you brought up the rear! No one else brought up the rear! You kept everyone e...

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