Search found 436 matches

by k66
Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]
Replies: 21
Views: 1032

Re: Currency Risk for ETFs [Canada]

... and issues like taxation, MER costs and spread fees are vital things to consider. Over the course of a few decades, the two funds should have very similar returns. I note you said taxation, MER, spread fees are "vital" things to consider when you're looking at holding a US ETF directly or indir...
by k66
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fun Money
Replies: 45
Views: 2649

Re: Fun Money

I also have 0% allocated to "fun money" and find the idea not just strange but entirely counterproductive. If our low-fee indexed-based investing style is indeed a bland diet, then the dessert surely comes in the form of extra returns.
by k66
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Things have changed, so what do I do?
Replies: 14
Views: 2063

Re: Things have changed, so what do I do?

1. I retired 7 years ago--so I presumably have missed the 'sequence of returns risk' 2. I downsized last year--so my expenses are much lower than when I first retired and I ended up with an appreciable amount from my home sale 3. I'm getting a bit older so the need for extravagant vacations or expe...
by k66
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tencent now largest non-US stock
Replies: 40
Views: 4545

Re: Tencent now largest non-US stock

fortyofforty wrote:
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:29 am
I'm not sure how much we can trust anything reported about a Chinese company. They have the ability to fudge their numbers.
And "we" can't--or don't?!

The Ten Worst Corporate Accounting Scandals of All Time
by k66
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)
Replies: 12
Views: 1551

Re: Firstrade Makes a Splash With 700 Commission-Free ETFs (Including Vanguard!)

... It may not be obvious, but commission-free trades are more than just a marketing tool for discount brokers; they're also a way to make money. Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW) charges asset managers a fee to make their ETFs and mutual funds commission free, collecting about $0.19 in annual fees for e...
by k66
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?
Replies: 163
Views: 11433

Re: What is your AA, given your age? and, Why?

I am early 50s and

1. Maintain a 75:25 portfolio,

2. Have no immediate concern that it needs to be adjusted going forward to Retirement, and

3. Glide rules don't really appeal to me.
by k66
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m looking for a word...
Replies: 114
Views: 9269

Re: I’m looking for a word...

Fluid Mechanics uses the terms Laminar and Non-laminar or Turbulent flows to describe the difference between perfectly flowing (idealized) fluids/gasses and when that same flow becomes disrupted and "chaotic" under increased flow rate. The gross properties of the system can still be determined (i.e....
by k66
Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??
Replies: 54
Views: 6340

Re: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??

OP: Should I/we continue to invest in a down market?

I do... and I will make you an offer: Send me any money that you don't want to invest while the market is down and I will return it without interest once the market is up.
by k66
Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days?
Replies: 14
Views: 1447

Re: Is it easier to 'know' when the US Total Market Index will fall/stagnate (versus rise) over a period of several days

Edited to simplify: In late January/early February 2018, there was a sense that the US Stock Market Index would continue fall for at least several days (and it did). Is a falling market more accurate to predict than a rising one over the short term? I would say this: A falling market is at least as...
by k66
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!
Replies: 38
Views: 5929

Re: Does anyone realize how special last year was?!

Excluding new contributions, my portfolio achieved a month/month "new high" seven times in 2017. For 2016 and 2015, it was five times and twice respectively. Since I have been tracking these data (~8 years), the average is ~44% (or typically 5.3 months per year with new highs). Here's to another '17...
by k66
Mon Feb 26, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amount of stocks before retirment
Replies: 25
Views: 3037

Re: Amount of stocks before retirment

A lot of this is dependent on personal psychology. One of the things that makes me sweat is the idea of having a high stock allocation at the same time as paying for end of life care. This would be generally warranted I think, except for the fact that "rising glide path" allocation scenarios (e.g. ...
by k66
Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal rules for buying in a down market?
Replies: 55
Views: 4010

Re: Personal rules for buying in a down market?

I purchase when I have sufficient free cash--Regardless. (it's a pretty simple rule).

Hindsight will tell me if "I got a deal" or not--but I don't care really. The most important part of the process (while accumulating) is to buy, not to speculate.
by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expecting a crash...but staying the course
Replies: 8
Views: 1671

Re: Expecting a crash...but staying the course

If you look at the stock charts, it has been a straight line up for a very long time. I sometimes have urges to pull out of the market and wait for prices to get slashed. But I always go back to these words from Charlie Ellis. He explains (summarized and paraphrased): The historical statistics show...
by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4765

Re: Random conversations regarding money

Last night I was at a gathering and found myself in a conversation regarding money and investing with another individual. He asked about what I invest in, etc and I told him, " mostly the US total stock market." He then proceeded to tell me how he only invests in physical gold bars, tax-deferred an...
by k66
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?
Replies: 52
Views: 4324

Re: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?

Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction? I don't see why not sell now and wait for the market to drop more and then buy them again. Will the market go up as fast as it is going down? (I am kind of playing devil's advocate here)...
by k66
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7829

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

Recent >5% jump-ups in the S&P 500 (over a 2-week period):

+7.6% in July 2016
+6.5% in Feb 2016
+7.2% in Oct 2015
+5.1% in Feb 2015
+7.1% in Oct 2014
+5.7% in Feb 2014
+6.0% in Oct 2013
+5.0% in Jul 2013
...

The list goes on (I only searched back to 2013). I guess it's as odd as you want it to be.
by k66
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites
Replies: 18
Views: 3860

Re: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites

And will Barron's persist with good picking skills? Make your bets accordingly!
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5716

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

... I consider the stock market a random walk more than anything else. Gains are gains. They require no reversion to the mean. If they did, the market would account for that and revert right now. Good point: I think people often forget, or erroneously believe, that the data are a function of "the m...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5716

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

"Anyone still got a Dow 10k hat?" Actually, I donated my Dow 10,000 hat a few years back, I purchased the hat at the NYSE in 1999, and I plan to drop by the NYSE in 2019 to purchase a new Dow xx,000 hat. Thanks for reading ~cfs~ I'd like to see a hat--a ball-cap, top-hat, whatever--that has a scrol...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 9233

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Attesting to my form entry of 1726.36.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 137
Views: 11654

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Agggm wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm
Name: Luna

Long:
Facebook
Apple
Amazon
Netflix
Google
A maximum of three positions long (or short) via rule #2... also there are two different share classes for Google/Alphabet (GOOGL and GOOG).
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night
Replies: 9
Views: 776

Re: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night

These are interesting topics and thank you goshenBogle for the links. Tangentially, structural engineers have always utilized a Demand (D) vs Capacity (C) methodology when designing structural members. Prior to Limit States Design methodology (LSD, or as practiced as in the US as Load and Resistance...
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 9233

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

jpelder wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:16 am
3100, Bob (in spreadsheet, too)

We're doing 'Price is Right" rules, right?
You can guess "over" and still win -- it is "closest to the mark" that counts.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 137
Views: 11654

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Alas, the "Rogue Won" fund ended 2017 without achieving a final definitive victory and, as a result, will find itself meeting a cruel end... This year's entry however is intended to bring new life--and a smattering of robo-investing--to investors looking for a brighter future. Trade Blunder 20/49 wi...
by k66
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some up some down
Replies: 2
Views: 530

Re: Some up some down

Based on today's approx. price for VTI (ballpark $138), the Q4-DY is 0.49%.

Likewise for VXUS (ballpark $56.50), the Q4-DY appears to be 0.95%.

Stocking-stuffers for sure.
by k66
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3296

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I’m inclined to believe that although indexing may have become more popular (both in terms of total dollar invested per individual and the total number of individuals utilizing indexing), it’s not necessarily the case that all indexers will toe the line during a downturn. I think that there will be ...
by k66
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2885

Re: Call the Top!

thangngo wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?
I'll take 3775.00
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 18845

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bitcoin $36,000
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2885

Re: Call the Top!

Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest? Kalo Yes, the winning guess would be the "closest without going over". A guess that is higher than what turns out to be the next peak would otherwise be eligible for the next iteration of the contest (should you stil...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2885

Re: Call the Top!

What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner? ... There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2885

Call the Top!

Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest. Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior t...
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1996

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1996

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 2520

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

Should I bank on grand scale Market Correction? As in the downward correction like that of 2008 and upward correction from 2009 onward? Should you bank on it? In what way? Yes, there will inevitably be some traumatic market-related events coming in the future--that is a fact. As to when they will o...
by k66
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 764

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

Thanks for the answer. It does work for mutual funds, but alas not for Stocks. I will keep optimistic for another reply. Drgolf Google finance lookup for stocks works for me. (I don't think they use Yahoo) True. The function can return both stock and MF data and from different exchanges as well. Es...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 2127

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff... In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 yea...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 764

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

If you use Google Sheets, you can use the "googlefinance" function to retrieve price data.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
by k66
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6428
Views: 1379273

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just kidding .... S&P 500 hits intraday all-time high at 2,588.51 Such cruelty! :happy I know that one day many will be posting seriously to this thread. But until that happens I am going to continue getting a chuckle when it is bumped :beer Maybe for the interim we should have a "U.S. Stocks on Fi...
by k66
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 4069

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

Welcome to the forum eddyd!

(To other readers and for reference, Part V starts on p.60 of the linked document in the OP).

Could it be that Schwab et al are the custodians of X% of the listed funds that have been individually acquired by their customers? I don't know--I'm just asking the question.
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 471

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

... In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is a needless cost and I focus entirely on maximizing the number of index-related holdi...
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 471

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

Are you sure that you have to hold investments in Canadian Dollars? In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs: VAB VCN and VTI VXUS I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is...
by k66
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1565

Re: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings

Absolutely yes. Even discounted for inflation, a lump-sum invested at t=0 has a strong probability of growing to a value larger then investing the equivalent principal sum over the interval t=0 to t=T. I say probably only because we don't know the future absolutely and can otherwise only infer what ...
by k66
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 4365

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... An interesting idea, I think, is something Ken Fisher proposed in one of his books/articles, I have no idea how successful it is, but he suggests going out and collecting the short term estimates from lots analysts and public pundits, divide their opinions into one of four categories: "Up a lot...
by k66
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3415

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I recall it well not because it really made any direct impression on me, but I do recall my undergrad Engineering Economics prof getting really wound up about it... I look back on it now and see it as the major event that it was. If I can learn anything from this, it is that you can be completely ob...
by k66
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 882

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

food for thought from an older thread on similar topic:

Recent historical returns on 50:50 AA?
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]
Replies: 4
Views: 787

Re: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]

Yes it’s true that that history does not repeat exactly, but it seems that financial news headlines recur almost verbatim!
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 744

Re: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF

A few oddities that I see: a) as you noted, it has only been operational for a very short period of time (April 2016) b) it appears to be an "inverse" (leveraged) type of fund which is usually an unproductive investment for the long-run c) it executed a 2:1 split at the end of last year (why?) d) it...
by k66
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1791

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? Thanks for answering such a silly question. :| I don't know if your investments have become any riskier recently -- and neith...
by k66
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Books Debunked
Replies: 24
Views: 4531

Re: Investing Books Debunked

Ahh, the Turtles! I read two books from Curtis Faith (an original Turtle) "Way of the Turtle" and "Inside the Mind of the Turtles". I also read "the Complete Turtle Trader", by Michael Covel, a Turtle follower who chronicled the in-programme and post-programme history of several Turtles (including M...
by k66
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 7701

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

I don't see how going with data back to 1930 would help one evaluate how it would help going forward from 2017. I am always skeptical of using very old data with imaginary costs and practically imaginary numbers and quite different laws and economy, then applying that to the here and now and the fu...