Search found 254 matches

by k66
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?
Replies: 4
Views: 262

Re: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?

Welcome to the forum Purple_Haze! From my own perspective, your option no. 2 would appear to be the more advantageous. I presume you are holding your investment(s) in a taxable account. Is there a tax-advantaged account that would be available for you to hold them in? I would also assume that a US R...
by k66
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [REVISED] Losing money to change asset allocation?
Replies: 14
Views: 961

Re: Losing money to change asset allocation?

What was the adjoining S&P500 index fund at when you made your allocation to VFX?

Would it not also have taken a hit recently as well? If it turns out that both funds have done comparatively bad (better) over the same time frame, then the hit from re-allocating is lessened.
by k66
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your average return?
Replies: 17
Views: 1927

Re: What is your average return?

1 year: -2.25%
2 year: +5.55%
3 year: +7.03%
5 year: +5.86%
69 mo: +6.81% (this is "since inception")

All figures nominal.
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 29
Views: 2392

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Yes, absolutely. My company stock often has periods of great performance, but regardless, once a year I sell all the shares that have vested and convert to index holdings. I haven't done the actual math, but I am sure that I could have been further ahead had I kept everything in the share ownership ...
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan reduces interest rates below 0
Replies: 16
Views: 2752

Re: Japan reduces interest rates below 0

I always took negative rates (at a central bank) to be required to get commercial banks to an ultra-low rate. In other words, if commercial banks are charging prime+X% and the central banks deem that the economy needs them at less than X%, then the central bank has dip into negative rate territory t...
by k66
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1055

Re: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Led_Zeppelin_-_Led_Zeppelin_%281969%29_front_cover.png Dazed and Confused: Been Dazed and Confused for so long it's not true. Mean-market woman, never bargained for you. Lots of people talkin', few of them know Soul of the market was created below. You...
by k66
Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 102
Views: 7021

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Doesn't the 4% rule increase withdrawals every year based on CPI? I don't know about folks here but my salary doesn't go always go up with inflation. Sometimes it's flat and on a few occasions (namely 2008-2011), it even goes down. When that happens, I don't increase my spending by how much the CPI...
by k66
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 7572

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

They're saying we're ultimately going to dive to 14200, that's a hard pill to swallow. Would we be in a bear market at that point or a full blown recession? Does it matter? It's a guess (but more specifically a sensationalizing sound bite designed to provoke you) that may or may not happen near-ter...
by k66
Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years
Replies: 9
Views: 1710

Re: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years

Younger investors, in particular, are avoiding stocks. Between 1970 and 1975, the number of investors declined in every age group but one: individuals 65 and older. While the number of investors under 65 dropped by about 25%, the number of investors over 65 jumped by more than 30%. Only the elderly...
by k66
Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down
Replies: 32
Views: 2078

Re: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down

No... sometimes I manage a chuckle when I see a sharp reverse during the day (and then there is always a plethora of commentary as to what caused it, almost all of which is pure speculation). On a really entertaining day we will see two or even three sharp reversals.
by k66
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 6568

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

My bond allocation is currently Age less 25 and doing fine--just like the last three or four, or how ever many of these we have had in the past six years. Larger declines in equities will only prompt re-balancing from bonds into equities.
by k66
Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 9793

Re: CORRECTION...Corection...Correction

What does it matter if it, or any other index/market is or is not in a correction (from an BH investor perspective)?

Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride.
by k66
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?
Replies: 3
Views: 494

Re: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?

The index "gapped" over night -- i.e. the index value changes overnight from the previous day's close (in this case 1187.13 according to Google Finance) to today's opening (or 1202.29 again from Google Finance). It closed today at 1189.23, so it is up 0.18% from yesterday's close but down ...
by k66
Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4228

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Alas poor "Trixter" was not able elude the long reach of the 2015 market psychosis and will itself go under the knife to be dismembered for shark bait. In its place this season, we bring you an intrepid new adventure involving strange, weird, and unbelievable tales of unequaled equity pick...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4136

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Congratulations Victoria! And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well... Aw k66! - Be upbeat! You ended up in last place, BUT you didn't "lose" the contest - you brought up the rear! No one else brought up the rear! You kept everyone e...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teaching Family the Bogle Way
Replies: 29
Views: 2686

Re: Teaching Family the Bogle Way

... Second is just a few facts. Fact - index funds outperform 80% of active funds over a 20 year period, mostly due to costs, but attempts to get higher returns ends up creating more of a loss. Fact - You cannot determine beforehand what the winning 20% will be. The obvious rational choice is to us...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 31525

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Wow. I have always been in the red in the hedge funds contests. So this year I made my choices and entered the longs as shorts and shorts as longs. What do you know, I'm up 16%!


In hindsight I should have done this as well (reversed my picks). I could have had a +14% instead of a -14%...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4136

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Congratulations Victoria!

And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well...
by k66
Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Contest~a "Push" for 2015?
Replies: 22
Views: 1983

Re: The Contest~a "Push" for 2015?

Maybe it will a contest to see if it can be tighter than 2011 (1257.64 --> 1257.60).
by k66
Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Childrens' Student Loans Delaying Retirement
Replies: 153
Views: 10068

Re: Childrens' Student Loans Delaying Retirement

EmergDoc wrote:...
What do you think? Would you borrow for your child's education?


Absolutely not!
by k66
Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"
Replies: 21
Views: 2007

Re: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"

Personally, I have always favoured 365.25 as being the most mathematically succinct value (rightly or wrongly).

edit: fixed my numerical typo (365 not 364)
by k66
Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]
Replies: 30
Views: 2729

Re: Yahoo: Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain ..

I have always looked at it this way--regardless of the number of active managers in the fight, or the degree to which exploitable opportunities exist in the market for financial gain, two truths remain. One, you (as an individual investor inclined towards active styles) will still not be able to fer...
by k66
Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 25438

Re: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020

Is this the "noise" they warned me about? It is dark and scary, and it makes me realize that I need to increase my savings rate. How to do that with a baby on the way? How about this? Take care of baby first and enjoy the time while you have it. They only stay that way for awhile so don't...
by k66
Fri Nov 06, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??
Replies: 28
Views: 1989

Re: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??

Consider also that the range of noise is large enough to overshadow any given change in value (resulting from changes in market conditions). Daily, weekly, and monthly motions are essentially irrelevant as far as I am concerned. Periods measured in years are what you are ultimately interested in for...
by k66
Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in cattle futures?
Replies: 51
Views: 2967

Re: Invest in cattle futures?

Personally, I have some MCD for this exact play. Any other tips?
by k66
Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will China Save the World Economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 905

Re: Will China Save the World Economy?

Some may feel that the world economy does not need to be saved, as the United States is still growing strongly and is currently making such a large contribution to annual global GDP growth: http://i.imgur.com/tnfNop9.png Source: KraneShares While true, the U.S. economy's share of total world GDP ha...
by k66
Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle`s opinion of ETFS
Replies: 6
Views: 555

Re: Bogel`s opion of ETF`S

Is there any indication that large index-based ETFs are used as speculative tools?

And even if they are, is there any real concern to a longterm holder of the ETF?
by k66
Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this Retirement Plan work (match div's to exp's)?
Replies: 9
Views: 822

Could this Retirement Plan work (match div's to exp's)?

An interesting approach to determine the savings required to make your retirement plan work: simply match dividend-paying stocks against the expense you would incur (e.g. match your bank fees to a given amount of bank stock so that the dividends paid equal your fees). Yes, it is written for Canadian...
by k66
Wed Sep 23, 2015 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As new folks like me start passive investing. . .
Replies: 10
Views: 1713

Re: As new folks like me start passive investing. . .

As total stock market index goes mainstream and new money pours in, does this push up the price per share of each component company, like Apple. Is there a limit or will Apple just take all the cash that America will give it. Are there forces keeping share price anchored to dividends? Should there ...
by k66
Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to rebalance with ETFs?
Replies: 4
Views: 315

Re: How to rebalance with ETFs?

I'm not sure why you said you cant rebalance with ETFs (in the same way you would with a MF). It is as simple as selling one (or more) funds to purchase one (or more) other funds. True you have to sell & purchase whole units, so you may not be able to rebalance to the penny, but that is not impo...
by k66
Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your 5-Year Return?
Replies: 5
Views: 675

Re: What is your 5-Year Return?

Mr. Spreadsheet tells me my 5-year return is 7.7% per annum (end of August).

Lessons Learned: Low-fee passive indexing approach does work, write and follow your IPS, filter the noise.

edit to add lessons learned
by k66
Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF volatility; WSJ article
Replies: 5
Views: 635

Re: ETF volatility; WSJ article

... Full disclosure: I bought shares in the May 2010 flash-crash and I really liked that I got a good bargain. I almost wish there was a flash crash every month. I agree--maybe like one of those furniture or golf stores that seem to have a "Going Out of Business Sale" once or twice a year.
by k66
Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random road to portfolio returns over your lifetime
Replies: 10
Views: 1037

Re: The random road to portfolio returns over your lifetime

The point of the Fool article wasn't to highlight a period of time when investors would be investing but rather when managers would be managing. The graph is intended to illustrate how much luck plays in fictitious manager' careers as they manage their fictitious funds during their most productive y...
by k66
Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting off
Replies: 10
Views: 875

Re: Starting off

Assuming that the 16% to International Bonds is a typo on the OP's part (and is 6%), it doesn't seem out of line. 80% equities, 20% bonds. Domestic is 62% leaving 38% international. In the end though, only the OP can make the determination that it fits his risk comfort level or not. For what it's wo...
by k66
Sun Sep 13, 2015 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: revisionist history in hedge funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1212

Re: revisionist history in hedge funds

Wow! Did I read this correctly: Hedge funds actually have little or no obligation to report their true returns? They can provide returns in whatever fashion they chose; perhaps their only restriction being not to make them so unbelievable that they don't offend the sensibilities of their current sub...
by k66
Fri Sep 11, 2015 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Building confidence to rebalance by myself
Replies: 5
Views: 509

Re: Building confidence to rebalance by myself

A target date fund isn't necessarily the end of the world. If the fees are reasonable it could be a perfectly good way to go. Otherwise do you have access to low fee index funds? I think my own point of inflection came when I realized just how much most (all?) of the funds were taking in fees withou...
by k66
Thu Sep 10, 2015 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is the bigger challenge?
Replies: 8
Views: 1085

Re: Which is the bigger challenge?

Having only seen one side of this mountain, I am wanting to say that saving (going up hill) is harder than spending (going down hill) based only a faint resemblance to Newtonian physics.
by k66
Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sentiment Chart Cycle
Replies: 19
Views: 1322

Re: Sentiment Chart Cycle

I think I am still at "amusement".
by k66
Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2728
Views: 539429

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

autonomy wrote:
InvestorNewb wrote:And up we go.

Total Stock Market is + 3.7% today so far :D


Go home, market, you're drunk.


Quote of the day for sure! Maybe even the week.
by k66
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "FEAR" Is Here,...
Replies: 53
Views: 7208

Re: "FEAR" Is Here,...

Nisi is correct: I hardly remember 2011.
by k66
Mon Aug 24, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2728
Views: 539429

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This is my first significant downturn since I first started investing. They say you don't really know your risk tolerance until you experience a bear market. So far, I'm feeling pretty good - I'm still rooting for more drops and staying low for a while so I can buy cheaper when I up my 401(k) contr...
by k66
Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 9307

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

If the market keeps going down, the one who did not "stay the course" in the first place seems to be smart. How so? Will these same people also know when to get back on course, and this only assumes that they do something beneficial during the interlude and not something even more damaging.
by k66
Sat Aug 22, 2015 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long will you"Stay the Course"?
Replies: 99
Views: 9307

Re: How long will you"Stay the Course"?

I will be staying the course until my ship makes port.
by k66
Wed Aug 19, 2015 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Defining "stay the course"
Replies: 23
Views: 2268

Re: Defining "stay the course"

I take "stay the course" to be equivalent to "follow your ISP". Presumably your ISP has mechanisms for making course corrections as needed.
by k66
Tue Aug 18, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Piling into emerging markets
Replies: 67
Views: 8381

Re: Piling into emerging markets

Anyone else staying the course with their asset allocation by piling into emerging markets recently? I'm just maintaining my target percentages and enjoying the recent dip. I am following my ISP, which states that I will use accumulated cash to purchase the most under-represented fund in the portfo...
by k66
Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Staying the Course- Barry Ritholtz in the Washington Post]
Replies: 3
Views: 701

Re: amusing article on finacial tv shows

Perhaps its time to update that old t-shirt slogan: "I'm with Beta".
by k66
Fri Aug 07, 2015 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 753
Views: 111351

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I agree with longinvest, the actual numbers are entirely irrelevant. What I do track is my current returns versus two potential target-date style funds that I could very well have invested in if I had not implemented a low-fee BH portfolio. My current returns versus Fund-1 and Fund-2 in brackets. 1...
by k66
Thu Aug 06, 2015 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has the 4% rule held up since the tech bubble and the 2008 crisis
Replies: 45
Views: 7212

Re: How has the 4% rule held up since the tech bubble and the 2008 crisis

I would say that the rumours of the 4% Rule's demise are greatly exaggerated. In looking at the output from my own spreadsheet calcs (using S&P500 TR and 10-yr Treasuries) with constant equity allocation of 60%, the 7-year (from 2008 to 2014 inclusive) and 15-year (from 2000 to 2014 inclusive) r...
by k66
Mon Aug 03, 2015 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 753
Views: 111351

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I agree with longinvest, the actual numbers are entirely irrelevant. What I do track is my current returns versus two potential target-date style funds that I could very well have invested in if I had not implemented a low-fee BH portfolio. My current returns versus Fund-1 and Fund-2 in brackets. 1-...

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