Search found 424 matches

by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expecting a crash...but staying the course
Replies: 8
Views: 1610

Re: Expecting a crash...but staying the course

If you look at the stock charts, it has been a straight line up for a very long time. I sometimes have urges to pull out of the market and wait for prices to get slashed. But I always go back to these words from Charlie Ellis. He explains (summarized and paraphrased): The historical statistics show...
by k66
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4573

Re: Random conversations regarding money

Last night I was at a gathering and found myself in a conversation regarding money and investing with another individual. He asked about what I invest in, etc and I told him, " mostly the US total stock market." He then proceeded to tell me how he only invests in physical gold bars, tax-deferred an...
by k66
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?
Replies: 52
Views: 4110

Re: Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction?

Should you sell your investments when they start dropping? When should you invest during this market correction? I don't see why not sell now and wait for the market to drop more and then buy them again. Will the market go up as fast as it is going down? (I am kind of playing devil's advocate here)...
by k66
Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd
Replies: 94
Views: 7679

Re: A 4% move in the Dow and S&P in 12 days? Seems odd

Recent >5% jump-ups in the S&P 500 (over a 2-week period):

+7.6% in July 2016
+6.5% in Feb 2016
+7.2% in Oct 2015
+5.1% in Feb 2015
+7.1% in Oct 2014
+5.7% in Feb 2014
+6.0% in Oct 2013
+5.0% in Jul 2013
...

The list goes on (I only searched back to 2013). I guess it's as odd as you want it to be.
by k66
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites
Replies: 18
Views: 3795

Re: What your 2017 returns would look like if you listened to these financial websites

And will Barron's persist with good picking skills? Make your bets accordingly!
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5634

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

... I consider the stock market a random walk more than anything else. Gains are gains. They require no reversion to the mean. If they did, the market would account for that and revert right now. Good point: I think people often forget, or erroneously believe, that the data are a function of "the m...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever
Replies: 55
Views: 5634

Re: DOW breaks 25,000 for first time ever

"Anyone still got a Dow 10k hat?" Actually, I donated my Dow 10,000 hat a few years back, I purchased the hat at the NYSE in 1999, and I plan to drop by the NYSE in 2019 to purchase a new Dow xx,000 hat. Thanks for reading ~cfs~ I'd like to see a hat--a ball-cap, top-hat, whatever--that has a scrol...
by k66
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 8745

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Attesting to my form entry of 1726.36.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8804

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Agggm wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:44 pm
Name: Luna

Long:
Facebook
Apple
Amazon
Netflix
Google
A maximum of three positions long (or short) via rule #2... also there are two different share classes for Google/Alphabet (GOOGL and GOOG).
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night
Replies: 9
Views: 748

Re: Risk tolerance / Capacity & Can I sleep at night

These are interesting topics and thank you goshenBogle for the links. Tangentially, structural engineers have always utilized a Demand (D) vs Capacity (C) methodology when designing structural members. Prior to Limit States Design methodology (LSD, or as practiced as in the US as Load and Resistance...
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 144
Views: 8745

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

jpelder wrote:
Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:16 am
3100, Bob (in spreadsheet, too)

We're doing 'Price is Right" rules, right?
You can guess "over" and still win -- it is "closest to the mark" that counts.
by k66
Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8804

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Alas, the "Rogue Won" fund ended 2017 without achieving a final definitive victory and, as a result, will find itself meeting a cruel end... This year's entry however is intended to bring new life--and a smattering of robo-investing--to investors looking for a brighter future. Trade Blunder 20/49 wi...
by k66
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some up some down
Replies: 2
Views: 511

Re: Some up some down

Based on today's approx. price for VTI (ballpark $138), the Q4-DY is 0.49%.

Likewise for VXUS (ballpark $56.50), the Q4-DY appears to be 0.95%.

Stocking-stuffers for sure.
by k66
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3219

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I’m inclined to believe that although indexing may have become more popular (both in terms of total dollar invested per individual and the total number of individuals utilizing indexing), it’s not necessarily the case that all indexers will toe the line during a downturn. I think that there will be ...
by k66
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2759

Re: Call the Top!

thangngo wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:12 pm
Will you put your money on it? Or is it just for fun?
I'll take 3775.00
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 182
Views: 18202

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Bitcoin $36,000
by k66
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2759

Re: Call the Top!

Is it closest without going over? Or is it ok to go over if you are still closest? Kalo Yes, the winning guess would be the "closest without going over". A guess that is higher than what turns out to be the next peak would otherwise be eligible for the next iteration of the contest (should you stil...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2759

Re: Call the Top!

What is the closing date to make your predictions? What is the ending date - where you call it done and declare a winner? ... There is no preset closing date except by arriving at a 20% or greater downturn. Upon arriving at that point, the person with a guess closest to the previous high would have...
by k66
Thu Dec 07, 2017 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the Top!
Replies: 29
Views: 2759

Call the Top!

Given that there seems to be a persistent feeling (in the general public at least), that the market is over-valued, bubblish, and/or over-due for a correction; it might be fun to have a "Call the Top" contest. Proposal: Call the peak value of the S&P 500 (up to two decimals) that it achieves prior t...
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1908

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool
Replies: 24
Views: 1908

Re: Rolling Returns: A Powerful Analytical Tool

If I were to be concerned with any type of return/performance analysis, I would be more inclined to want to see an exponential moving average (EMA) where more recent data are weighted higher than the older data.

But honestly I’m not inclined to want to look at any type of fund returns.
by k66
Tue Nov 28, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 2343

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

Should I bank on grand scale Market Correction? As in the downward correction like that of 2008 and upward correction from 2009 onward? Should you bank on it? In what way? Yes, there will inevitably be some traumatic market-related events coming in the future--that is a fact. As to when they will o...
by k66
Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 738

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

Thanks for the answer. It does work for mutual funds, but alas not for Stocks. I will keep optimistic for another reply. Drgolf Google finance lookup for stocks works for me. (I don't think they use Yahoo) True. The function can return both stock and MF data and from different exchanges as well. Es...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 2079

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

It is reminiscent of the cycles, super-cycles, Kitchin cycles stuff... In one of my favourite representations, there are supposedly four separate 16 year cycles (corresponding to four successive Presidential terms referenced as economic spring, summer, winter and fall) that make up the larger 64 yea...
by k66
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date
Replies: 6
Views: 738

Re: Populating a spread sheet with Investing date

If you use Google Sheets, you can use the "googlefinance" function to retrieve price data.

https://support.google.com/docs/answer/3093281?hl=en
by k66
Mon Nov 06, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5595
Views: 1263485

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Just kidding .... S&P 500 hits intraday all-time high at 2,588.51 Such cruelty! :happy I know that one day many will be posting seriously to this thread. But until that happens I am going to continue getting a chuckle when it is bumped :beer Maybe for the interim we should have a "U.S. Stocks on Fi...
by k66
Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!
Replies: 27
Views: 3939

Re: Who owns Vanguard? Schwab and Fidelity!

Welcome to the forum eddyd!

(To other readers and for reference, Part V starts on p.60 of the linked document in the OP).

Could it be that Schwab et al are the custodians of X% of the listed funds that have been individually acquired by their customers? I don't know--I'm just asking the question.
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 448

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

... In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is a needless cost and I focus entirely on maximizing the number of index-related holdi...
by k66
Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments
Replies: 3
Views: 448

Re: Appropriate three-fund portfolio for US citizen with Canadian investments

Are you sure that you have to hold investments in Canadian Dollars? In my LIRA (self-directed at "Q-trade Investor" ), I hold two CAD and two USD ETFs: VAB VCN and VTI VXUS I don't pay any monthly fees and trades (when I need them) are $8.75 CDN. I also agree with you in that hedging any currency is...
by k66
Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings
Replies: 11
Views: 1518

Re: Theoretical — Lump Sum Investing Your Lifetime Earnings

Absolutely yes. Even discounted for inflation, a lump-sum invested at t=0 has a strong probability of growing to a value larger then investing the equivalent principal sum over the interval t=0 to t=T. I say probably only because we don't know the future absolutely and can otherwise only infer what ...
by k66
Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 4172

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

... An interesting idea, I think, is something Ken Fisher proposed in one of his books/articles, I have no idea how successful it is, but he suggests going out and collecting the short term estimates from lots analysts and public pundits, divide their opinions into one of four categories: "Up a lot...
by k66
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3325

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

I recall it well not because it really made any direct impression on me, but I do recall my undergrad Engineering Economics prof getting really wound up about it... I look back on it now and see it as the major event that it was. If I can learn anything from this, it is that you can be completely ob...
by k66
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years
Replies: 6
Views: 860

Re: Growth rate over the next 10-20 years

food for thought from an older thread on similar topic:

Recent historical returns on 50:50 AA?
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]
Replies: 4
Views: 771

Re: Headlines du Jour [Financial news]

Yes it’s true that that history does not repeat exactly, but it seems that financial news headlines recur almost verbatim!
by k66
Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 706

Re: what to research on possible "too good to be true" ETF

A few oddities that I see: a) as you noted, it has only been operational for a very short period of time (April 2016) b) it appears to be an "inverse" (leveraged) type of fund which is usually an unproductive investment for the long-run c) it executed a 2:1 split at the end of last year (why?) d) it...
by k66
Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Length of bull market become more risky?
Replies: 15
Views: 1754

Re: Length of bull market become more risky?

Do my investment in a prolonged bull market become more risky at higher valuations? Should I perceive the same amount of risk whether it is 2 years in to a bull market or 8? Thanks for answering such a silly question. :| I don't know if your investments have become any riskier recently -- and neith...
by k66
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing Books Debunked
Replies: 24
Views: 4409

Re: Investing Books Debunked

Ahh, the Turtles! I read two books from Curtis Faith (an original Turtle) "Way of the Turtle" and "Inside the Mind of the Turtles". I also read "the Complete Turtle Trader", by Michael Covel, a Turtle follower who chronicled the in-programme and post-programme history of several Turtles (including M...
by k66
Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 7428

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

I don't see how going with data back to 1930 would help one evaluate how it would help going forward from 2017. I am always skeptical of using very old data with imaginary costs and practically imaginary numbers and quite different laws and economy, then applying that to the here and now and the fu...
by k66
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 66
Views: 17019

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Will the "googlefinance()" function (as employed in Google sheets) still work during the shutdown?
by k66
Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10238

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

Bull AND Bear for the next 5 year? Absolutely.

I'm good to go.
by k66
Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: differences between stock exchanges
Replies: 5
Views: 826

Re: differences between stock exchanges

Hello wstalcup, I am by no means an expert on the topic but this may help explain some of your questions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BATS_Global_Markets In my own crude mental framework, I liken different exchanges to different used car lots: each can sell any type of vehicle make that they can a...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 9051

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

The only flaw is you could prudently spend a lot more money if you wanted to. If you want to travel more, buy a nicer car, hire out some household tasks, or increase your quality of life in any way, but do not do it for fear of not having enough money later in life, I think that is a mistake. You w...
by k66
Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 9051

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Folks, Someone else is discussing portfolio construction for a very safe withdrawal. But, does that make any sense if your withdrawal rate is 2% or lower? Won't simple 60/40 portfolio works? There must be a gap in my thinking. For example, if the social security cover 50% of a person's retirement e...
by k66
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Learning from loss
Replies: 23
Views: 3067

Re: Learning from loss

I learned that I did not know enough to take on the markets after I thought that I knew enough to take on the markets.
by k66
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You
Replies: 3
Views: 2099

Re: 93% Chance Your Mutual Fund is Killing You

It's an interesting plug indeed. Instead of arguing that the passive index route is the more effective investing path, the authors suggest that rather than getting continuously beat up by 1% Mutual Fund fees or settling for "average" market return, a person is better off riding their Foolish hot-pic...
by k66
Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 15488

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

my own spreadsheet output using data from 1928 to present (SP 500 for equities and 10-yr Treasuries for bonds, both adjusted for CPI) would suggest SWRs of 4.15% for a 25 year period, 3.81% for a 30 year period, 3.64% for a 35 year period and 3.80% for a 40 year period. Must be a typo. SWR can only...
by k66
Wed Aug 23, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 15488

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

4.5% rule? I didn't know this. Thanks for your question. Before I answer it specifically, why don't we dispense with some preliminaries, so we are all on the same page? The "4% rule" is actually the "4.5% rule"- I modified it some years ago on the basis of new research. The 4.5% is the percentage y...
by k66
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Investing at Peaks
Replies: 29
Views: 3965

Re: Case for Investing at Peaks

... What do you do to convince yourself to invest even if the market is frothy? I know that if I only invest at the "worst" times (as you were alluding to by your reference to the "worlds worst market timer") and can still do OK, then by investing (more or less continuously) between all the potenti...
by k66
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?
Replies: 1
Views: 322

Re: Data on number of stocks up/down each year?

As I am sometimes prone to saying: Fill your Boots.

S&P500 Component Performances

It looks like for today, a net down day for the index, there were 28% Bulls and 72% Bears.
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians
Replies: 4
Views: 912

Re: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians

... Link - http://www.sunlife.ca/Canada/GRS+matters/GRS+matters+articles/2017/Breaking+News/Sun+Lifes+next+generation+target+date+retirement+solution+Canadas+newest+retirement+innovation?vgnLocale=en_CA BobK The introduction of this solution shifts the focus of the retirement conversation away from...