Search found 375 matches

by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians
Replies: 4
Views: 741

Re: New retirement solution aims to improve retirement outcomes for Canadians

... Link - http://www.sunlife.ca/Canada/GRS+matters/GRS+matters+articles/2017/Breaking+News/Sun+Lifes+next+generation+target+date+retirement+solution+Canadas+newest+retirement+innovation?vgnLocale=en_CA BobK The introduction of this solution shifts the focus of the retirement conversation away from...
by k66
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "sleeve"?
Replies: 34
Views: 3109

Re: What is a "sleeve"?

My friend's financial advisor is encouraging her to go with an "end sleeve" and to avoid index funds at all costs :D [pun intended] What is an "end sleeve"? I don't find anything on the wiki about it. A sleeve could also be a box of three golf balls. Perhaps your friend's adviso...
by k66
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: black swan/fooled by randomness
Replies: 11
Views: 2310

Re: black swan/fooled by randomness

I am looking forward to reading Fooled By Randomness . Apparently Taleb discusses Monte Carlo in that book. Over a decade later, he insists that Monte Carlo is the best way to learn probability: To the freq. question, "which book to learn probability?" DO NOT start w/books. Do zillions of...
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)
Replies: 6
Views: 1635

Re: Where Did The 4% Rule Come From (Hint It Wasen't From The Trinity Study)

Didn't we already know this? And as much as Bengen is the progenitor of the 4% notion, there are some "flaws" that I don't like with his methodology (that were better controlled for in the Trinity study).
by k66
Fri Jun 30, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
Replies: 27
Views: 3266

Re: Bubbles

Yes it is a great piece -- thought-provoking for sure.

But also covered in this thread here: Good Article on Bubbles and Staying the Course
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?
Replies: 32
Views: 4675

Re: Illinois: A slow swimming black swan?

Read the Illinois Lottery is suspending all Powerball and Mega Millions sales in the state because of the ongoing budget crisis. _ Maybe they shouldn't do that... maybe the Governor should be buying all kinds of tickets in order to have a statistically reasonable chance of hitting the jackpot. I gu...
by k66
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"
Replies: 13
Views: 1121

Re: "Quincy Jones Streaming Music, Media & Entertainment ETF"

Well, maybe it it will be cool and jazzy at first but I think it may also have less rhythm and too many blues for what a long term investor wants to hear.

Also,no mention of fees. That's certainly not music to my ears either.
by k66
Tue Jun 20, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive
Replies: 15
Views: 2509

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistent Returns Remain Elusive

It would appear though that persistence does exist... persistence of inconsistence (within a group).
by k66
Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RMD on Declining Balance
Replies: 53
Views: 3447

Re: RMD on Declining Balance

Also, the nominal 4% rule is to withdraw 4% of the starting balance, and annually adjust the amount of the withdrawal for inflation. It's a rule of thumb, and is currently considered a bit too aggressive to guarantee. Like all rules of thumb, you have to adjust as you go. I don't think you are supp...
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment complications
Replies: 5
Views: 670

Re: Investment complications

Congratulations FutureShock.

My own "a-ha" realization came about 9 years ago reading the "Naked Investor" but then almost another two years after that to get fully adapted with a BH style portfolio and mindset.

It's never too late to start!
by k66
Tue May 30, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 204
Views: 20227

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Hmmm, I see that my JNS (Janus Capital) has merged with Henderson PLC resulting in a new listing on the NYSE for Janus-Henderson under the ticker "JHG" News Release The new JHG seems to be trading in the $30 range but the "closing" price for Janus/JNS from last Friday was in the ...
by k66
Fri May 26, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model
Replies: 6
Views: 801

Re: Foodstamp's Proactive Indexing Model

Hello I think I have stumbled on the perfect formula 50% Index fund (total US) 15% GOOGL 15% AMZN 15% NVDA 5% JNJ, V, AAPL I don't think it is possible to beat my formula. The individual equities are all super cheap relative to 20 years from now so you won't go wrong even buying in after the run up...
by k66
Tue May 23, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8195

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

frankmorris wrote:...
What am I missing? Where is the bubble? If valuations are high, where are the corresponding bad business models that usually accompany unsustainable bubbles?
...


Who knows, who cares? Stay the course (and rebalance as required).

What are we missing?
by k66
Mon May 22, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need help with ER calculations
Replies: 3
Views: 312

Re: Need help with ER calculations

HKboggles: As you suspected, the answer may be very simple indeed. You could really just calculate the percentage that one fee contributes to the total fee that you pay. For example calculate the weighted result of any one fund in your portfolio to the weighted average of all your funds: (10% x 0.25...
by k66
Tue May 16, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"
Replies: 10
Views: 1018

Re: "Can this fee structure save actively managed funds"

Or perhaps this could be a great ploy to attract investors who might otherwise grudgingly place money in a passive fund because they finally realized how expensive active funds really are. This would offer "active at passive" pricing as the sales pitch but could then be nothing more than a...
by k66
Sun May 07, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?
Replies: 15
Views: 2666

Re: How often are stocks at 'all time' highs?

I track the value of one of my retirement accounts--one which I don't make any new contributions--and in the last column in my tracking spreadsheet, I note whether the portfolio has or has not made a new high. Over the past seven years, the portfolio has made a new high at month's end 45% of the tim...
by k66
Mon May 01, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 206
Views: 16999

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

When I first started a BH approach (7 years ago), I assumed I would be able to build a portfolio for 25 bp and allowed for another 5 bp to manage the accounts (e.g. buy/sell costs when rebalancing). I am currently at 8 bp (when perfectly balanced) and <2 bp for transactional costs. Pencil me in for ...
by k66
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell in May and go away - not this year?
Replies: 15
Views: 2764

Re: Sell in May and go away - not this year?

inbox788 wrote:...
If you knew for a fact the market would remain flat for for the summer and it would rise 10% in winter, where would you move or park your cash in the summer?


I might be inclined to leave my equities alone and continue taking the dividends. In fact, I know I would.

Stay the Course!
by k66
Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees
Replies: 54
Views: 5360

Re: Visualizing the devastating impact of fees

... In fact, what an investment provider gets as a fraction of what you would otherwise have had depends only on their fees, not returns. Looked at more precisely, the provider gets a fraction equal to 1–(1+c)^(–T) of what would otherwise be my wealth, given fee c and time horizon T. Is the relatio...
by k66
Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 31
Views: 3424

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

My broker offers a small discount in their trade commission for those who make more that 150 trades per quarter. Even when I was most active, I was only making ~100 trades per quarter, but I bet that there are lots of folks out there who are members of the frequent trader's club. In a perverse kind ...
by k66
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under
Replies: 9
Views: 1291

Re: Just for Fun... Let's Pick a Daily Over / Under

Once a year is enough. 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=206949 This thread is pointless. Agreed. Daily movements are almost entirely random. If I were to make an under/over prediction, I would constantly pick "over" regardless (and be correc...
by k66
Sun Apr 16, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning
Replies: 17
Views: 2613

Re: Assuming a random walk for retirement planning

If recoveries followed crashes more reliably than by chance, you would expect historical sequences to show a higher certainty equivalence than randomly drawn sequences, but they do not. It is never going to be possible to prove that a random walk is the correct model for retirement planning, but I ...
by k66
Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 2136

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

Mr. Roth is always spot on.
by k66
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices
Replies: 11
Views: 1796

Re: Since robots are cheaper than humans expect smart beta to beat the indices

Hmmm... a couple of trains of thought: A) Evolution of the markets continue; humans are fully replaced by Smart-B 'bots, and they all now routinely "beat the market". Except they are now collectively the market, but continue to outperform by the old standard(s). So the passive indexer (the...
by k66
Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal experience over time? [How far from retirement, time spent investing]
Replies: 31
Views: 3411

Re: Personal experience over time?

I am a 50 y.o. accumulator and, at the end of next month, I will have been a BH-style investor for 7 years. I am happy with my results and have a "since inception" (7 year) annualized return of approx 8%. My AA has varied a bit over those years but I have now gravitated to, and am comforta...
by k66
Sun Mar 26, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Replies: 2
Views: 674

Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?

Did you mean 1871? I'm not sure that there are good data going back to 1826 and even if there were, it might be considered a bit stale (as in, the market operating conditions are vastly different since then... ditto for 1871 for that matter). I believe Shiller's data is what you are wanting (downloa...
by k66
Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 4627

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

I know what you mean. Regardless of how I, or or others, feel about the current state of bonds; I am still inclined to ignore the noise, stay my course, and follow my plan. And for the record, I am neither bullish or bearish on bonds; but I am buying bonds because my equities are above their target ...
by k66
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett's Bet"
Replies: 18
Views: 2599

Re: "Buffett's Bet"

What's more interesting, as Mr. Sisti reminds us, is not that the S&P500 fund continues to shellacque the hedge fund fund-of-funds, but rather that there were no other hedge fund managers who took the bet. Where was their confidence when it came time to show off their apparent skills? More likel...
by k66
Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 18833

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

You are asking BH-types if they are openly supporting or practicing market timing?

I won't suspect that you get many yeas.

Staying the course means staying the course all the time, not just when you think it may be OK to do so.

Stay the course.
by k66
Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 2621

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Ah, yes--this time it is different!

But otherwise stay the course.
by k66
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."
Replies: 55
Views: 5516

Re: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."

David Jay wrote:
David Jay wrote:My son is 24. If he uses this strategy (and I grub stake him for, say, $1,000), he can own the entire global stock market (current global market cap ~ 69 trillion) by the time he is 60.

COOL!


If he starts with $1, it will take him a decade longer...


Patience is a virtue.
by k66
Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 191
Views: 18728

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

What is/are the alternative(s)? Are there any that can provide same/similar service at 15 bp (or less than 25 bp)?
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4341

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearish, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it do...
by k66
Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4341

Re: Stock market optimism

When I was a subscriber to the AAII, I used to find their sentiment survey interesting: http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results For those who are unfamiliar with it, the AAII polls their membership weekly as to where they are personally (bullish, bearing, or neutral). I'm pretty sure it doe...
by k66
Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: retirement thanks
Replies: 12
Views: 1590

Re: retirement thanks

I will second the congratulations Vectorizer! You said that you retired from Vanguard though?
by k66
Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 204
Views: 20227

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Mudpuppy wrote:...so why not brag about being in last place too?


I do it whenever I can!
by k66
Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 26
Views: 4279

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

I have a spreadsheet whereby I compute my own personal retirement plan against historical bond & equity returns including my own expected age of retirement (age 60), planned deferral of federal pensions (age 70), declining spending program via D. Blanchett , and current income tax regimes (note:...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1359

Re: Incremental retirement?

... There are lots of unknowns here, the answers won't be simple. Interesting points. Raises some questions. Q1: Do you have any references with more information about (un)safe withdrawal rates for Europeans? Q2: I understand that many SWR models exist, each with different assumptions and risks, bu...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1359

Re: Incremental retirement?

Question: If I have accumulated 50% of my retirement savings (based on SWR model) then is it safe to "50% retire" immediately? I mean: Could I immediately start to draw half of my living costs from my retirement portfolio (supposing this were accessible) and then continue working to (a) p...
by k66
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 10
Views: 1727

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

whodidntante wrote:True, but I've heard it goes down sometimes.


yes, maybe in the past, but this time it is different, no?

i mean let's look at the facts: up 1.85% in four days implies a gain of over 300% by the end of the year... it's just too easy!
by k66
Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 676
Views: 25035

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

1818.36 Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year. http://i68.tinypic.com/68x72b.jpg (The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.) http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern o...
by k66
Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 93
Views: 7185

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I use 3% (based on historical data) in order to compute real return projections. I also realize that it may not be what we eventually experience.
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 204
Views: 20227

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

2016 closes the book on the Wrecked Files--a deep and often unmeaningful search for higher intelligence in the stock market. Investigators searched with unfruitful passion to uncover hidden meanings in the ticker tapes and expose higher level conspiracies at work in the trading desks around the worl...
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?
Replies: 39
Views: 3586

Re: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?

I'm sure there are tons of investment professionals that have run the numbers, but have there ever been any actual patterns identified, or does every day/month actually have the same up/down ratio? For example, Mondays being more often down than a Wednesday. Or Januaries being more often down than ...
by k66
Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder
Replies: 14
Views: 1058

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder

Only one trading day left for me to get out of the basement. Has the S&P 500 ever had a 1000 point day before...?!
by k66
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: O`Shares and John Bogle
Replies: 9
Views: 1460

Re: O`Shares and John Bogle

Ok folks. I`m sticking with my VTI. Thanks for all your responses. As of this posting, the Morningstar chart shows the following since the inception of OUSA in 2015 (keep in mind inexact dates will change values): OUSA:+16.36% VTI:+13.05% VOO:+13.39% An ER of 0.48 was not more than the increased re...
by k66
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?
Replies: 9
Views: 1143

What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?

I think that we have all aware of what a rebalancing band is and what it is used for, but most examples and suggestions seem to revolve around a classic two-fund/asset portfolio model (i.e. +/- 5% in a prototypical 60% Equities/40% Bonds portfolio). Rebalancing But what particular values or threshol...

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