Search found 270 matches

by k66
Mon Apr 25, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow 100,000
Replies: 24
Views: 3278

Re: Dow 100,000

The DJIA was at ~3250 in late 1992 and has since experienced an expansion of 5.5 times that value to reach ~18k today including both the explosive increases through the 1990s and the sombre reality of the new millennium . Another 5.5X expansion would take it to the target 100k value. There's no reas...
by k66
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you follow the 4% rule?
Replies: 23
Views: 2657

Re: Should you follow the 4% rule?

As an actual withdrawal method, the 4% strategy is pretty limited and of no real practical value. The only significance that I see is in determining adequacy of the portfolio size to endure a reasonable retirement period--i.e. If your portfolio is approximately 25x your retirement spending expectati...
by k66
Wed Apr 20, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10
Replies: 29
Views: 2271

Re: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10

Interesting--thank you Larry.

Can the CAPE-10 be calculated from 1960 onward, similar to the time period used for CAPE-5 and -6 histories? Would the CAPE-10 average then be a bit higher and the apparent overvaluation become lower as a result?
by k66
Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time
Replies: 14
Views: 1181

Re: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time

I'm not being facetious; this is exactly what you need to do in order to wait out an investment successfully. 1. Determine which investment you want to make (stock, fund, real estate, etc). 2. Prepare a future price history of the investment with sufficient accuracy. 3. Select the most appropriate ...
by k66
Sun Apr 17, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the economic machine works
Replies: 13
Views: 1490

Re: How the economic machine works

I have seen other cycle-based constructs of the economy. In one, there are three levels of the overall cycle that superimpose a primary 64 year wave having individual sub-cycles of 16 years each and tertiary set having four 4-year cycles within each of those. No rationale was ever given--it seemed t...
by k66
Sat Apr 16, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time
Replies: 14
Views: 1181

Re: Quick Question - To Time or Not to Time

I'm not being facetious; this is exactly what you need to do in order to wait out an investment successfully. 1. Determine which investment you want to make (stock, fund, real estate, etc). 2. Prepare a future price history of the investment with sufficient accuracy. 3. Select the most appropriate p...
by k66
Thu Apr 07, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need S&P 500 total return calculator
Replies: 17
Views: 1410

Re: Need S&P 500 total return calculator

tdub wrote:Based on the site lack_ey found it looks like 1 dollar invested in 1950 would be nearly 1000 today.

Image
Image


And when run with CPI included, the annualized index return yields 3.7% (7.2% w/ dividends reinvested).
by k66
Mon Apr 04, 2016 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Simple vs. Complex"
Replies: 12
Views: 1829

Re: "Simple vs. Complex"

One of the biggest hurdles I had to get over was the implicit need to build a complex portfolio--seemingly because investing in the market(s) was complex as well. Once I got my head around the notion that having a simpler portfolio was a better, more durable solution, then I could sleep much sounder.
by k66
Tue Mar 29, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questrade
Replies: 3
Views: 284

Re: Questrade

... Moreover, they truly are a discount broker and the cost-cutting shows if you try to do anything out of the ordinary in terms of money movement, currencies, Norbert's gambit, funding from other accounts, etc. - expect repeated long phone conversations following even longer waits listening to rec...
by k66
Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a bunny market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1987

Re: Are we in a bunny market?

I can't actually recall the last bunny market, but if this is one, then maybe all I have to say is "What's up Doc?" and get ready for the "Duck Season". But maybe that's just splitting hares.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9-k5J4RxQdE
by k66
Thu Mar 24, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting stock market returns accurately?
Replies: 52
Views: 3020

Re: Predicting stock market returns accurately?

The other problem, and frankly why I wouldn't bother looking at his work, is the overwhelming probability that he is curve-fitting a data set. And knowing that market returns are the result of a complex (non-linear) system, attempting to extrapolate using an explicitly linear model is a near-perfect...
by k66
Sun Mar 20, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "You Are Thinking About Risk All Wrong"
Replies: 26
Views: 3139

Re: "You Are Thinking About Risk All Wrong"

I don't think that I am thinking about risk incorrectly provided that I think about the context in which it is being applied. Yes, the 1-year std. deviation may be 20% and that is fine if I am considering potential effects for the short duration. It is also correct to recognize the longer term std. ...
by k66
Sun Mar 13, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Late Starters
Replies: 61
Views: 5331

Re: Late Starters

Started when I was 33, and now turning 50 this year. Early years savings rate was very paltry in comparison to what it is now--I really put the hammer down 10 years ago at age 40. In fact, I was updating my savings speadsheet last week and noted that 90% of my total savings occurred in the last 10 y...
by k66
Sun Mar 06, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 74
Views: 6618

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

... I know this is a very general question, and completely depends on one's personal situation. But that said, if you were writing a book, do you have a rule of thumb? Obviously Charley is much more aggressive than Burt. I am really just looking for a pulse on how aggressive Bogleheads' tend to be....
by k66
Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What withdrawal % are you planning on?
Replies: 89
Views: 6128

Re: What withdrawal % are you planning on?

MIpreRetirey wrote:6-7% until SS @ 66 in 6 yrs. Then 1-2% - Have alloc. = 40/30/30%CDs. for seq return mindset


Similar to my plan, but still 10 years out for me.
by k66
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?
Replies: 6
Views: 665

Re: Buy US ETF as a non-US investor?

Welcome to the forum Purple_Haze! From my own perspective, your option no. 2 would appear to be the more advantageous. I presume you are holding your investment(s) in a taxable account. Is there a tax-advantaged account that would be available for you to hold them in? I would also assume that a US R...
by k66
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [REVISED] Losing money to change asset allocation?
Replies: 14
Views: 1062

Re: Losing money to change asset allocation?

What was the adjoining S&P500 index fund at when you made your allocation to VFX?

Would it not also have taken a hit recently as well? If it turns out that both funds have done comparatively bad (better) over the same time frame, then the hit from re-allocating is lessened.
by k66
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your average return?
Replies: 17
Views: 2022

Re: What is your average return?

1 year: -2.25%
2 year: +5.55%
3 year: +7.03%
5 year: +5.86%
69 mo: +6.81% (this is "since inception")

All figures nominal.
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 29
Views: 2540

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Yes, absolutely. My company stock often has periods of great performance, but regardless, once a year I sell all the shares that have vested and convert to index holdings. I haven't done the actual math, but I am sure that I could have been further ahead had I kept everything in the share ownership ...
by k66
Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan reduces interest rates below 0
Replies: 16
Views: 2876

Re: Japan reduces interest rates below 0

I always took negative rates (at a central bank) to be required to get commercial banks to an ultra-low rate. In other words, if commercial banks are charging prime+X% and the central banks deem that the economy needs them at less than X%, then the central bank has dip into negative rate territory t...
by k66
Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1110

Re: Double top chart pattern in VEU- International fund

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/ef/Led_Zeppelin_-_Led_Zeppelin_%281969%29_front_cover.png Dazed and Confused: Been Dazed and Confused for so long it's not true. Mean-market woman, never bargained for you. Lots of people talkin', few of them know Soul of the market was created below. You...
by k66
Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 106
Views: 8383

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Doesn't the 4% rule increase withdrawals every year based on CPI? I don't know about folks here but my salary doesn't go always go up with inflation. Sometimes it's flat and on a few occasions (namely 2008-2011), it even goes down. When that happens, I don't increase my spending by how much the CPI...
by k66
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??
Replies: 92
Views: 7942

Re: I'm sitting here watching FOX Business...14200??

They're saying we're ultimately going to dive to 14200, that's a hard pill to swallow. Would we be in a bear market at that point or a full blown recession? Does it matter? It's a guess (but more specifically a sensationalizing sound bite designed to provoke you) that may or may not happen near-ter...
by k66
Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years
Replies: 9
Views: 1840

Re: Bonds winning over stocks past 20 years

Younger investors, in particular, are avoiding stocks. Between 1970 and 1975, the number of investors declined in every age group but one: individuals 65 and older. While the number of investors under 65 dropped by about 25%, the number of investors over 65 jumped by more than 30%. Only the elderly...
by k66
Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down
Replies: 32
Views: 2195

Re: Ever get mad at the screen when the market is down

No... sometimes I manage a chuckle when I see a sharp reverse during the day (and then there is always a plethora of commentary as to what caused it, almost all of which is pure speculation). On a really entertaining day we will see two or even three sharp reversals.
by k66
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 6892

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

My bond allocation is currently Age less 25 and doing fine--just like the last three or four, or how ever many of these we have had in the past six years. Larger declines in equities will only prompt re-balancing from bonds into equities.
by k66
Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Market] Correction...Corection...Correction
Replies: 103
Views: 10118

Re: CORRECTION...Corection...Correction

What does it matter if it, or any other index/market is or is not in a correction (from an BH investor perspective)?

Fasten your seatbelt and enjoy the ride.
by k66
Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?
Replies: 3
Views: 516

Re: Russell 3000 Index down 1.4% today - error?

The index "gapped" over night -- i.e. the index value changes overnight from the previous day's close (in this case 1187.13 according to Google Finance) to today's opening (or 1202.29 again from Google Finance). It closed today at 1189.23, so it is up 0.18% from yesterday's close but down ...
by k66
Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 137
Views: 5972

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Alas poor "Trixter" was not able elude the long reach of the 2015 market psychosis and will itself go under the knife to be dismembered for shark bait. In its place this season, we bring you an intrepid new adventure involving strange, weird, and unbelievable tales of unequaled equity pick...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4409

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Congratulations Victoria! And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well... Aw k66! - Be upbeat! You ended up in last place, BUT you didn't "lose" the contest - you brought up the rear! No one else brought up the rear! You kept everyone e...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Teaching Family the Bogle Way
Replies: 29
Views: 2770

Re: Teaching Family the Bogle Way

... Second is just a few facts. Fact - index funds outperform 80% of active funds over a 20 year period, mostly due to costs, but attempts to get higher returns ends up creating more of a loss. Fact - You cannot determine beforehand what the winning 20% will be. The obvious rational choice is to us...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 32597

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

zaboomafoozarg wrote:Wow. I have always been in the red in the hedge funds contests. So this year I made my choices and entered the longs as shorts and shorts as longs. What do you know, I'm up 16%!


In hindsight I should have done this as well (reversed my picks). I could have had a +14% instead of a -14%...
by k66
Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4409

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS

Congratulations Victoria!

And in the same vein, I am going to make note of my own dismal performance in my sig line as well...
by k66
Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Contest~a "Push" for 2015?
Replies: 22
Views: 2070

Re: The Contest~a "Push" for 2015?

Maybe it will a contest to see if it can be tighter than 2011 (1257.64 --> 1257.60).
by k66
Fri Dec 04, 2015 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Childrens' Student Loans Delaying Retirement
Replies: 153
Views: 11149

Re: Childrens' Student Loans Delaying Retirement

EmergDoc wrote:...
What do you think? Would you borrow for your child's education?


Absolutely not!
by k66
Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"
Replies: 21
Views: 2167

Re: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"

Personally, I have always favoured 365.25 as being the most mathematically succinct value (rightly or wrongly).

edit: fixed my numerical typo (365 not 364)
by k66
Tue Dec 01, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Article [Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain]
Replies: 30
Views: 2879

Re: Yahoo: Vanguard’s Gain Is Wall Street’s Pain ..

I have always looked at it this way--regardless of the number of active managers in the fight, or the degree to which exploitable opportunities exist in the market for financial gain, two truths remain. One, you (as an individual investor inclined towards active styles) will still not be able to fer...
by k66
Tue Nov 24, 2015 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 25792

Re: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020

Is this the "noise" they warned me about? It is dark and scary, and it makes me realize that I need to increase my savings rate. How to do that with a baby on the way? How about this? Take care of baby first and enjoy the time while you have it. They only stay that way for awhile so don't...
by k66
Fri Nov 06, 2015 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??
Replies: 28
Views: 2175

Re: Please explain how are stocks and bonds down the same days??

Consider also that the range of noise is large enough to overshadow any given change in value (resulting from changes in market conditions). Daily, weekly, and monthly motions are essentially irrelevant as far as I am concerned. Periods measured in years are what you are ultimately interested in for...
by k66
Fri Oct 30, 2015 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in cattle futures?
Replies: 51
Views: 3213

Re: Invest in cattle futures?

Personally, I have some MCD for this exact play. Any other tips?
by k66
Sun Oct 25, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will China Save the World Economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 950

Re: Will China Save the World Economy?

Some may feel that the world economy does not need to be saved, as the United States is still growing strongly and is currently making such a large contribution to annual global GDP growth: http://i.imgur.com/tnfNop9.png Source: KraneShares While true, the U.S. economy's share of total world GDP ha...
by k66
Sun Oct 18, 2015 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle`s opinion of ETFS
Replies: 6
Views: 589

Re: Bogel`s opion of ETF`S

Is there any indication that large index-based ETFs are used as speculative tools?

And even if they are, is there any real concern to a longterm holder of the ETF?
by k66
Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Could this Retirement Plan work (match div's to exp's)?
Replies: 9
Views: 868

Could this Retirement Plan work (match div's to exp's)?

An interesting approach to determine the savings required to make your retirement plan work: simply match dividend-paying stocks against the expense you would incur (e.g. match your bank fees to a given amount of bank stock so that the dividends paid equal your fees). Yes, it is written for Canadian...
by k66
Wed Sep 23, 2015 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As new folks like me start passive investing. . .
Replies: 10
Views: 1758

Re: As new folks like me start passive investing. . .

As total stock market index goes mainstream and new money pours in, does this push up the price per share of each component company, like Apple. Is there a limit or will Apple just take all the cash that America will give it. Are there forces keeping share price anchored to dividends? Should there ...
by k66
Tue Sep 22, 2015 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to rebalance with ETFs?
Replies: 4
Views: 341

Re: How to rebalance with ETFs?

I'm not sure why you said you cant rebalance with ETFs (in the same way you would with a MF). It is as simple as selling one (or more) funds to purchase one (or more) other funds. True you have to sell & purchase whole units, so you may not be able to rebalance to the penny, but that is not impo...
by k66
Wed Sep 16, 2015 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your 5-Year Return?
Replies: 5
Views: 698

Re: What is your 5-Year Return?

Mr. Spreadsheet tells me my 5-year return is 7.7% per annum (end of August).

Lessons Learned: Low-fee passive indexing approach does work, write and follow your IPS, filter the noise.

edit to add lessons learned
by k66
Mon Sep 14, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF volatility; WSJ article
Replies: 5
Views: 661

Re: ETF volatility; WSJ article

... Full disclosure: I bought shares in the May 2010 flash-crash and I really liked that I got a good bargain. I almost wish there was a flash crash every month. I agree--maybe like one of those furniture or golf stores that seem to have a "Going Out of Business Sale" once or twice a year.
by k66
Sun Sep 13, 2015 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The random road to portfolio returns over your lifetime
Replies: 10
Views: 1068

Re: The random road to portfolio returns over your lifetime

The point of the Fool article wasn't to highlight a period of time when investors would be investing but rather when managers would be managing. The graph is intended to illustrate how much luck plays in fictitious manager' careers as they manage their fictitious funds during their most productive y...

Go to advanced search