Search found 337 matches

by k66
Tue Jan 17, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016
Replies: 6
Views: 1422

Re: Y2k retiree how is s/he holding up after 2016

I have a spreadsheet whereby I compute my own personal retirement plan against historical bond & equity returns including my own expected age of retirement (age 60), planned deferral of federal pensions (age 70), declining spending program via D. Blanchett , and current income tax regimes (note:...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1233

Re: Incremental retirement?

... There are lots of unknowns here, the answers won't be simple. Interesting points. Raises some questions. Q1: Do you have any references with more information about (un)safe withdrawal rates for Europeans? Q2: I understand that many SWR models exist, each with different assumptions and risks, bu...
by k66
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incremental retirement?
Replies: 11
Views: 1233

Re: Incremental retirement?

Question: If I have accumulated 50% of my retirement savings (based on SWR model) then is it safe to "50% retire" immediately? I mean: Could I immediately start to draw half of my living costs from my retirement portfolio (supposing this were accessible) and then continue working to (a) p...
by k66
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017
Replies: 10
Views: 1588

Re: S&P 500 up 1.85% in first four days of 2017

whodidntante wrote:True, but I've heard it goes down sometimes.


yes, maybe in the past, but this time it is different, no?

i mean let's look at the facts: up 1.85% in four days implies a gain of over 300% by the end of the year... it's just too easy!
by k66
Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 670
Views: 16201

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2017 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

1818.36 Based on the guesses so far, the average Boglehead is predicting a 2.2% increase in the S&P500 this year. http://i68.tinypic.com/68x72b.jpg (The red line shows the 2017 starting value for the S&P500.) http://i64.tinypic.com/5d8che.jpg Very cool! If I squint, I make out the pattern o...
by k66
Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 67
Views: 4074

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

I use 3% (based on historical data) in order to compute real return projections. I also realize that it may not be what we eventually experience.
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 120
Views: 6233

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

2016 closes the book on the Wrecked Files--a deep and often unmeaningful search for higher intelligence in the stock market. Investigators searched with unfruitful passion to uncover hidden meanings in the ticker tapes and expose higher level conspiracies at work in the trading desks around the worl...
by k66
Fri Dec 30, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?
Replies: 39
Views: 3048

Re: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?

I'm sure there are tons of investment professionals that have run the numbers, but have there ever been any actual patterns identified, or does every day/month actually have the same up/down ratio? For example, Mondays being more often down than a Wednesday. Or Januaries being more often down than ...
by k66
Thu Dec 29, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder
Replies: 14
Views: 928

Re: 2017 Boglehead Contest Reminder

Only one trading day left for me to get out of the basement. Has the S&P 500 ever had a 1000 point day before...?!
by k66
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: O`Shares and John Bogle
Replies: 9
Views: 1277

Re: O`Shares and John Bogle

Ok folks. I`m sticking with my VTI. Thanks for all your responses. As of this posting, the Morningstar chart shows the following since the inception of OUSA in 2015 (keep in mind inexact dates will change values): OUSA:+16.36% VTI:+13.05% VOO:+13.39% An ER of 0.48 was not more than the increased re...
by k66
Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?
Replies: 9
Views: 994

What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?

I think that we have all aware of what a rebalancing band is and what it is used for, but most examples and suggestions seem to revolve around a classic two-fund/asset portfolio model (i.e. +/- 5% in a prototypical 60% Equities/40% Bonds portfolio). Rebalancing But what particular values or threshol...
by k66
Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Times: "Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose"
Replies: 9
Views: 1613

Re: NY Times: "Hedge Fund Math: Heads We Win, Tails You Lose"

But now consider the return after deducting a 20 percent performance fee. In years one and two, the fund manager earns $20,000 and $20,400 for a total of $40,400. The fund’s manager earns nothing in years three and four. After deducting the fees, the investor would end up after the four years with ...
by k66
Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles
Replies: 7
Views: 753

Re: Investing in stocks around presidential cycles

also bear in mind that once an advantageous thing becomes known, it will soon become arbitraged away.

If these cycles have become publicly exposed, you can probably also rest assured that the special Presidential Cycle $20 bills are no longer available on public sidewalks.
by k66
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FI planning based on current annual expense
Replies: 43
Views: 1863

Re: FI planning based on current annual expense

KlangFool -- Can you clarify? It sounds like there would be an expected period when the individual would not be working but also not drawing any pensions. If this is the case then there would be a "kink in the road" so to speak in that the individual would at some point (or maybe several p...
by k66
Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: discount brokerage vs full service brokerage
Replies: 3
Views: 498

Re: discount brokerage vs full service brokerage

Is there a difference in the ability to fulfill trades between discount brokers and full service brokers/brokerage firms? This is a spin off question from the hedge fund thread, but why don't hedge funds and high net worth individuals also use discount brokerage firms for placing orders? The bigges...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Ethelred wrote:This. Three 3-standard-deviation events in a row without a recovery in between isn't three black swans. It's a 9-standard-deviation black unicorn werewolf dragon.


LOL. Quote of the Year!
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got cash - what to do?
Replies: 9
Views: 1797

Re: Got cash - what to do?

Any debts you can pay off? I don't really subscribe to the notion that you should just blindly plow money into the markets without regard to valuations. To me that seems no different than the person who walks into the store firmly committed to paying the listed price for everything knowing full wel...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Got cash - what to do?
Replies: 9
Views: 1797

Re: Got cash - what to do?

Hello fellow Bogleheads! OK, so I have come into some cash which will now currently comprise ~50% of my portfolio. My entire portfolio was in VWRL along with a LifeStrategy fund 80/20. I have always tried to ignore the noise, never check my balance (except for when Vanguard send me a statement - ev...
by k66
Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]
Replies: 25
Views: 2754

Re: DOW [Will the DOW hit 20,000 before the end of the year?]

Forget the Dow; I need the S&P 500 to pick up about another 1000 points in the next 2-1/2 weeks.
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

The 4% SWR is an unverifiable proposition that, based on past market performances, a given asset-allocated portfolio (usually 60% equities, 40% bonds) is likely to survive future market conditions for a given period (usually 30 years) at the given initial value of the portfolio (usually 4%) but is ...
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

Start: $60/$40 = $100 SWR = 4.0%. 25% loss: $45/$30 =$75 SWR = 5.3%. 25% loss: $34/$22 = $56 AWR = 7.1%. Two back to back Black Swan equity losses forces an income cutback. Start: $40/$60 = $100 SWR = 4.0%. 15% loss: $35/$50 =$85 SWR = 4.7%. 15% loss: $30/$42 = $72 SWR = 5.6% 15% loss: $25/$36 = $6...
by k66
Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?
Replies: 14
Views: 1598

Re: How Many 3SD Body Shots Can Your Retirement Port Take?

I thought the whole purpose of a 4% SWR was that your AWR may go up, but eventually the market would recover and your portfolio would survive over a 30-year period? The 4% SWR is an unverifiable proposition that, based on past market performances, a given asset-allocated portfolio (usually 60% equi...
by k66
Mon Dec 12, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bad to sell after a drop... or any other time
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: Bad to sell after a drop... or any other time

For myself, I really only plan to sell under two circumstances: 1. To rebalance (but in reality, because I am still in the accumulation phase, I simply direct new cash to purchase that which is most under-balanced), and 2. to raise cash for withdrawal(s) during decumulation (and I'm not there yet). ...
by k66
Tue Dec 06, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3305
Views: 812638

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

GoldenFinch wrote:
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.


At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.


Yeah--where's the fun in that?!
by k66
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 3102

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

...and cue "Stay the Course".

Italy in, out, up, down, or all around sideways--it doesn't matter: Stay the Course.
by k66
Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the unknowability of the market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1989

Re: What is the unknowability of the market?

TomCat96: I think you are asking for some type of quantification of a non-quantifiable property. As Valuethinker points out, Black Swans exist (we know that), but we can't dimensionslize them because, by their very nature, we don't know what they are or when they will actually manifest themselves.
by k66
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2517

Re: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?

Don't assume that any given market will recover. We have good precedent that they will, but exceptions always occur. Ours is not to reason why, it is but to do and buy (and rebalance). Of course we should assume the market will recover, the issue is over how long. The market will generally at least...
by k66
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?
Replies: 17
Views: 2517

Re: VTI is 50% above pre-crash peaks. Does this make sense?

Don't assume that any given market will recover. We have good precedent that they will, but exceptions always occur.

Ours is not to reason why, it is but to do and buy (and rebalance).
by k66
Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US index
Replies: 8
Views: 1096

Re: US index

I'd be curious to see how many have language in their Investment Policy Statement that addresses situations like these and how they anticipated handling them. I have some language but it is vague--and intentionally so. It is meant more as a catch-all for any odd, unexpected, or reactionary kinds of...
by k66
Thu Nov 03, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?
Replies: 99
Views: 11637

Re: Slipping last few days- time to buy now or wait until after 11/8?

Toons wrote:Time Not Timing.
Put the compounding machine to work.
ASAP :moneybag


+1: We can never say this enough!
by k66
Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting the x% spending rule
Replies: 27
Views: 2807

Re: Adjusting the x% spending rule

The x% spending rule says to spend x% of your portfolio the first year in retirement and to adjust spending upward each year with inflation. Bengen studied a 4% spending rule. It has the advantage of allowing for stable spending -- unless the money runs out. The initial x is chosen based on a trade...
by k66
Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?
Replies: 75
Views: 9552

Re: If you own Vanguard Total Stock Market, do you re-invest dividends?

I always reinvest. I am also in the accumulation stage and save in tax deferred accounts. I only purchase once the commission that will be paid is less than 1% of free cash (e.g. My commission is currently $8, so I wait until I have at least $800 free cash--similar to the $1000 figure previously men...
by k66
Sun Sep 25, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3229

Re: Selling in October

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/monthly_returns.htm

Hmmm --MoneyChimp offers two very important pieces of information: (1) September (not October) is the real danger month, and (2) instead of bothering with market timing based on noisy scatter, stick through it all full time for the best results.
by k66
Sun Sep 25, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3229

Re: Selling in October

MEA: you can do as you please of course but you still would presumably want to buy back into the market. What is your strategy for that? At the very least, please develop a catchy rhyming second clause to get us interested. Maybe "sell in October, until it's all over". That sounds like as...
by k66
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling in October
Replies: 43
Views: 3229

Re: Selling in October

MEA: you can do as you please of course but you still would presumably want to buy back into the market. What is your strategy for that? At the very least, please develop a catchy rhyming second clause to get us interested. Maybe "sell in October, until it's all over". That sounds like as ...
by k66
Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facing Up to low yielding world
Replies: 11
Views: 2352

Re: Facing Up to low yielding world

The first paragraph says it all--almost. Investors should avoid the lure of riskier assets, save their money and get comfortable with lower returns over the coming years, according to top strategists at Vanguard Group Inc., the world’s second-biggest asset manager. Rather than "getting comforta...
by k66
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evolution of the S&P 500 Composition
Replies: 6
Views: 847

Evolution of the S&P 500 Composition

From the Reformed Broker: Evolution of the S&P 500 Composition To me, the most important line in the story is the final one, quoting S&P Dow Jones committee member David Blitzer: “At the end of the day, it’s more an art, not a science.” Slightly thought provoking in that the 500 is not as ri...
by k66
Sun Sep 18, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10979

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

To a certain extent, TS Momemtum sounds an awful lot like the "Turtle" school of trading. Originally of course they uses commodities but the principles could be expanded to any tradable security. I wanted to go find one of my old Turtle Traders books but can't seem to place any of them... ...
by k66
Thu Sep 15, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keys to a Successful Retirement
Replies: 55
Views: 7261

Re: Keys to a Successful Retirement

... - Purchase life annuities in chunks over time as you continue to age. Begin these purchases sometime after you have started taking your delayed Social Security benefits. That's interesting. Is it based on the idea that as you continue to "survive" you are likely to continue surviving ...
by k66
Mon Sep 12, 2016 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long would it take to turn $1 into $1 million?
Replies: 7
Views: 1199

Re: How long would it take to turn $1 into $1 million?

If you could consistently find a 10% winner every day over 145 trading days you could turn $1 into $1M. 145 trading days is approx 29 weeks (6 to 7 months) excluding trading costs (which would probably exceed all your gains early on). The odds of flipping a fair coin 144 times and getting the same r...
by k66
Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: projected returns
Replies: 11
Views: 1038

Re: projected returns

Based on historic returns I make projections based on the following: a) Accumulation (10 years remaining) @ 6% real and allow for 25 bp MER (although currently at 9 bp). b) Decumulation (35 years) @ 5.5% real and again allow for a 25 bp MER. NB: All of the above is irrelevant; I will get what I get ...
by k66
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing now in a simple 2 fund portfolio and/or a 3 fund portfolio
Replies: 1
Views: 433

Re: rebalancing now in a simple 2 fund portfolio and/or a 3 fund portfolio

Unless of course you don't need to rebalance or it's not part of your plan (IPS*).

* edited to correct ISP to read IPS (investment policy statement).
by k66
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3546

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

You can neither prove nor disprove the possibility of a "reasonable" withdrawal rate in our usual understanding (e.g. 30 to 35 years to depletion, inflation adjusted, typical AA, etc). We can create models based on historical data or Monte Carlo simulations (but each has their own weakness...
by k66
Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard fees hit and miss?
Replies: 9
Views: 968

Re: Vanguard fees hit and miss?

Shakenbake: I would agree--consolidation (of funds) is usually always good and even better if you can do so while also reducing MER-type fees and increasing diversification. However I think you may want to formulate a plan--a roadmap if you will--of how to do those things concisely and efficiently. ...
by k66
Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Luck v Skill (Bloomberg)
Replies: 6
Views: 1083

Luck v Skill (Bloomberg)

Always an interesting topic: Given that random chance can obviously affect outcomes that we otherwise want determined by pure skill alone, how much "luck" is necessary to create unpredictable results? Why Luck Plays a Big Role in Making You Rich In terms of actionable discourse, perhaps it...
by k66
Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETF shares in general so expensive...
Replies: 20
Views: 1810

Re: Vanguard ETF shares in general so expensive...

shakenbake: do you have an IPS by which to determine your target asset allocation and overall investment strategy? If not, I think most everyone here would recommend writing one and using it to better hone your future investment purchases.
by k66
Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you follow a VWR formula?
Replies: 13
Views: 1379

Re: Do you follow a VWR formula?

I'm currently reading McClung's "Living off your money" and he's got an entire section devoted to variable withdrawal formulas and their relative performance in his model. I'd never really thought about there being an actual VWR model per se, more that you'd spend what you needed and then...
by k66
Sat Aug 20, 2016 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: oil&gas bankruptcies
Replies: 8
Views: 1074

Re: oil&gas bankruptcies

What are you missing? But what are you asking? Are you looking to extrapolate a future macro-economic scenario based on very small pieces of data? Consider that there are an indeterminate number of variables involved in this non-linear system with constantly moving boundry conditions. Expecting a co...
by k66
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to think about non-invested $
Replies: 20
Views: 2093

Re: How think about non-invested $

Cash is part of your AA - so it should be included. Doesn't make sense otherwise. Exactly. Too often we forget that there are three primary assets by which we should construct an investment portfolio: equities, bonds and cash. Even if we conceptually lump cash & bonds under the same roof, we sh...

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