Search found 352 matches

by joer1212
Sat May 27, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? No, it isn't. Now that we've settled the only question in your post: What are you actually going to do differently now? How is this ac...
by joer1212
Fri May 26, 2017 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

OP: are you asking about a decision one can make today based on today's information; or about the particular results of that decision at a predefined point in the future? PJW I'm asking about a decision one can make today, with the information that's available now. Also, bear in mind that I am comp...
by joer1212
Thu May 25, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

OK, fair enough. You make some good points. But, keep in mind that I am comparing the expected long-term returns of various investments. No doubt, there will be portfolios and investments of all kinds that will outperform a Boglehead portfolio in the short term. But, will those investments outperfo...
by joer1212
Thu May 25, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

OK, fair enough. You make some good points. But, keep in mind that I am comparing the expected long-term returns of various investments. No doubt, there will be portfolios and investments of all kinds that will outperform a Boglehead portfolio in the short term. But, will those investments outperfo...
by joer1212
Thu May 25, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? * total stock, total bond, total int'l (optional: small-cap value, REITs and TIPS) No, it will not have the high...
by joer1212
Thu May 25, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

OP: are you asking about a decision one can make today based on today's information; or about the particular results of that decision at a predefined point in the future? PJW I'm asking about a decision one can make today, with the information that's available now. Also, bear in mind that I am comp...
by joer1212
Thu May 25, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 53
Views: 3465

Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this?

* total stock, total bond, total int'l (optional: small-cap value, REITs and TIPS)
by joer1212
Sat May 06, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?
Replies: 34
Views: 6527

Re: Does Magic Formula works or ever worked for you?

livesoft wrote:Here is a thread where someone tried it: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/ ... 74510.html
Let's just say, it has not gone well.


In all fairness, the experiment was only 9 months old. Hardly long enough to be conclusive.
by joer1212
Fri May 05, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Evaluation
Replies: 10
Views: 1327

Re: Portfolio Evaluation

Apologies for the very late post. I also work for the MTA, and I have been maxing out, both my 401(k) and 457(b), for years. Aside from your allocations, which are somewhat subjective, I would substitute the actively managed funds you hold now for the MTA index funds. They're cheaper and have a bett...
by joer1212
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Explorer wrote:TBM has a mandate on duration, which really hurt it in the recent past and will continue to hurt TBM every time there is a sudden move up in interest rates.

Make no mistake - TBM will be volatile as rates start rising.


Isn't this already priced in?
by joer1212
Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Explorer wrote:By the way, there are other funds such as unconstrained active bond funds that should be examined as well.


I would like to do a comparison. Which particular bond funds are you referring to?
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

What most people care about is another 2008 type event, which is why you hold the right types of bonds (intermediate, high quality, low cost, well diversified). The right types of bonds acts as a ballast to your portfolio. If we look at 2008 (1/1/08-12/31/08) we see that (in order of appearance in ...
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

One important point that I forgot to mention is that my financial advisor friend has access to PIMIX, which is an institutional class fund. It has no loads and a relatively low expense ratio. As an individual investor, I'm not sure if I qualify for this fund.
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

ofcmetz wrote:Just remember with active things can change like when Bill Gross left the Total Return Fund. Other times star managers can just lose their touch. Tread carefully.


Very true.
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

What's unclear is what portion of you or your friend's fixed income allocation the fund represents. If it is only a part of his fixed income allocation, I do think it makes sense to be in his Roth rather than Total Bond, as PIMIX has higher tax drag due to its higher yield. It is not a substitute f...
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

I'm a fan of and own PIMIX in my portfolio. It is part of my bond allocation with the rest being directly held CDs and Treasuries (now all < 5 years in maturity). PIMIX drives most of its higher yield from EM Debt vs Corporate Debt in Vanguard Total Bond Market. It also has a significantly lower du...
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Taylor Larimore wrote:More money has been lost reaching for higher yield than has been lost at the point of a gun.


Did Bogle come up with this clever quip? I remember reading it somewhere. :thumbsup
by joer1212
Mon Dec 26, 2016 12:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Whoa! Since the turn of the new century in 2000 junk bonds have outperformed the S&P. If that is cherry picking then eyeball the return of Vanguard's high yield junk bond fund since inception in the late 70s. Looks pretty stellar to me and without the associated drawdowns of the S&P over th...
by joer1212
Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

it has had a much higher return than a total bond fund since inception, about 9.1% compared to 4.2%. This with appreciably more risk. The fund is very actively managed with sector bets, security analysis, macro/economic forecasts, etc., using leverage, investing significantly in high yield/emerging...
by joer1212
Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Re: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

Higher yield means more risk. Many around here agree that bonds are for safety and stocks are for returns. The same thought crossed my mind. I prefer to play it safe in the bond portion of my portfolio and take more risk on the equity side, even if that means allocating a higher percentage to stocks.
by joer1212
Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market
Replies: 51
Views: 5044

Pimco Income Fund vs. Vanguard Total Bond Market

If you had a choice between the Pimco Income fund (PIMIX) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBTLX) for your Roth IRA, which would you invest in? My friend is a successful financial advisor. He's transferring all his Roth IRA money into the Pimco fund (~390K). He says that it has a much high...
by joer1212
Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

Are there personal loans that offer a deferment of, say, 6 mo to 1 yr, or must monthly payments commence immediately after the loan is made?
by joer1212
Thu Dec 22, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

If you don't have time to research too much. Go on biggerpockets ultimate buyer's guide. Read it asap. They also have a rental calculator that will help you calculate your possible returns, estimate costs, etc... It might be eye opening. If the house is 50k, what would the rent be? Does it even mak...
by joer1212
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

As another poster said, it doesn't seem like you've thought this trough. You should read a book or five on real estate investing. You're absolutely right, and I usually do my homework very thoroughly before embarking on something new, but unfortunately, purchasing a house is time-sensitive for me (...
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

startbyservingothers wrote:Is home equity limited on your primary residence? (4% or less on loans. You can find great rates for 6-12 months)


I rent. I want to purchase this house exclusively as a rental property. I will not be living there.
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

bigred77 wrote:It does not stay invested.


If that's the case, then there's no point.
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

One thing though - make sure to put it into an LLC. You don't want a 50k property to cause you a lawsuit and wipe out everything else! Could you elaborate on this? Wouldn't homeowner's insurance protect me from personal liability? Also... for 50k.... you could just take a 50k 401k/457b loan... - pa...
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

stoptothink wrote:Just get a 10yr mortgage and make extra principal payments. No reason to complicate things.


Pardon my ignorance (I've never dealt with real estate in my life), but is there some kind of penalty for making extra principal payments/paying off the mortgage early?
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

Re: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

Get a 5/1 ARM and pay it off before it resets. That should be under 4%. Although you may have trouble finding a lender for such a small amount. Do you plan on living in this house? If you intend to rent it out, then rates will be higher. Have you calculated if it's better to to pay capital gains ta...
by joer1212
Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice
Replies: 19
Views: 1468

First-Time Home-Buyer Needs Advice

What is my best option for purchasing a $50,000 (fifty-thousand) house? Details: - I don't want a 15-year mortgage, because I'd like to pay this house off in 3-5 years & save on interest payments - I have a net worth of over $400,000, but almost all of this money is tied up in retirement account...
by joer1212
Mon Dec 12, 2016 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k's with Collective Trusts / Commingled Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 2124

Re: 401k's with Collective Trusts / Commingled Funds

Sorry for the late post, but it should be mentioned that one of the disadvantages of a collective trust is that, after you leave your employer, you cannot roll over the money into an IRA. You first have to cash out, then reinvest. If your employer offers satisfactory investment choices, this won't b...
by joer1212
Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I allocate 20% of my portfolio (100% equity) to Vanguard's small-cap blend fund. I figure I'll get some of the size premium, at least. Now I read that small-cap growth tends to underperform the broader market, so I wonder whether this is counterproductive. The value component in Vanguard's small-ca...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Why I recommend The Three-Fund Portfolio

he link proves that TSM has better risk-weighted returns than an SCV tilt, or any other tilt for that matter, if I read it right. IF that's true then tilting is inefficient (less risk-weighted return). I would add that time eventually negates the "risk" of owning SCV. If a 25 year-old wan...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I allocate 20% of my portfolio (100% equity) to Vanguard's small-cap blend fund. I figure I'll get some of the size premium, at least. Now I read that small-cap growth tends to underperform the broader market, so I wonder whether this is counterproductive. The value component in Vanguard's small-ca...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Okay joer1212 and taylor what do think of this portfolio and no it's not mind. This is a Larry portfolio notice no Total stock market etf or fund. I myself own mostly Vanguard index funds, but I do hold one Cef HTD( John Hancock tax advantaged dividend income fund) it has been one of my core holdin...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

CashBalance wrote:it could be said that those who choose a three fund portfolio strategy aren't necessarily bogleheads because they're not following Jack Bogle's philosophy of investing only in the US market.


Good point.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

These Merriman pieces that disrespect Total Stock Market are discussed from time to time: 2008: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=18759 2014: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=151204 2015: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=158806 Clearly, he favors slice...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I think Merriman fails to consider tax efficiency in his recommendations. And, most people will not have access to most funds contained in his 'tax-deferred' portfolios in their 401(k)'s.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

nisiprius wrote:The debate between the total-market types (such as me) and the factor mavens is interesting and isn't trivial. Merriman's article does nothing to clarify or explain the issue and does a great deal to obfuscate it.


He gets into more detail in the audio clip.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Yes, the vanguard total stock market fund is dominated by large cap. I don't know what's controversial about that. That's what you end up with if you design an index by cap-weight. He's arguing that investing by cap weight (purist Boglehead style) is unlikely to result in optimal performance over t...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 82
Views: 10573

Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Has anyone here ever heard this guy? He makes some controversial statements about Boglehead-style investing, yet I have to admit that some of it makes sense: http://paulmerriman.com/10-reasons-dont-like-vanguards-total-stock-market-index-fund/ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-vanguard-total-stoc...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I think it's a question of 1) determining stock/bond allocation; 2) determining how much of bond allocation to allocate to TIPS, if any; 3) determining how to hold TIPS. If using a fund, then I agree, simply rebalancing as with any other fund is what I would do. Thanks. The reason I was confused ab...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

wander wrote:I have VIPSX in my bond portfolio. YTD is 7.57%. I don't see any problem holding this fund.


Do you rebalance VIPSX when necessary?
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I would agree with this statement if TIPS had some prospective return (like they normally would), but with the current interest rate environment there is a strong likelihood of a prospective loss . I have no problem accepting lower return in exchange for lower risk, but it's quite another matter to...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

If you think TIPS are too low returning, you shouldn't be invested in them in the first place. If your only measure of effectiveness is prospective return you should seek out the riskiest highest prospective return assets you can find and put all your money there. You certainly would not be owning ...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I don't know what would be so bad about just setting a fixed allocation and rebalancing. I could be wrong, but the problem I see with this strategy is that even if TIPS is the worst-performing asset class in your portfolio, it can still be a bad idea to rebalance (add money) into it, particularly i...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

saltycaper wrote:
joer1212 wrote:Maybe you're looking at prices that are a little outdated. It looks to me that VIPSX is actually near a 3-yr high.


Based on this graph, TIPS were above the current level in May, 2013:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VIPSX+Interactive
by joer1212
Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 2163

VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]

I'm a bit confused about how VIPSX (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund) should be managed in a diversified portfolio. Should it be rebalanced, like any other fund, or should the current yield be taken into account when deciding whether to put more money into it? For example, the net asset ...
by joer1212
Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 2000 underperformance
Replies: 13
Views: 2770

Re: Russell 2000 underperformance

Simple question (that I can't seem to find an answer to anywhere): What percentage of the Russell 2000 stock index consists of growth vs. value stocks? Is it evenly split (50%/50%)? 50/50 - by definition. There is true for most indexes. There is no absolute measure of growth / value. This is the im...

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