Search found 301 matches

by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 86
Views: 10080

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

I would expect a positive return today. By "some kind of average" I don't mean to equal weight. The latest report says it's heavier in precious metals equity. A cursory glance at the top ten holdings indicates that as well. Also, you can check recent daily correlation with other funds, wh...
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 86
Views: 10080

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Angst wrote:Right now, M* says:
PICK -3.42%
RING +2.90%


So, which of these two reflects today's performance of VGPMX (not that any mortal would know)?
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 86
Views: 10080

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Slightly off topic: How can I track VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund) in real time? Yahoo! Finance only shows its performance for the prior day, not the current one. I've tried searching for ETF's that track the same benchmark as VGPMX, but I haven't found any. An equivalent ETF woul...
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 86
Views: 10080

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Slightly off topic: How can I track VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund) in real time? Yahoo! Finance only shows its performance for the prior day, not the current one. I've tried searching for ETF's that track the same benchmark as VGPMX, but I haven't found any. An equivalent ETF would...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

I am having a heated debate with my parents. They claim that their house-- which they purchased in Aug, 1988 for $180,000, and is now worth 1.2 million-- was a better investment than if they had placed their money in the stock market. My gut instinct tells me that they're wrong. So, I'm deferring t...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

...was a better investment... Here's the tricky part: conflating a good outcome with a good strategy. From the 1980s until today, NYC real estate (whether a rental property or a primary residence) beat the pants off of investing in a stock market index fund. But, for that matter, buying individual ...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

Unless your parents actually sell the house, they really cannot know the "worth". They can get interesting estimates, but without a buyer you cannot come to any definitive conclusions. When the time comes to sell, they might get lucky, or they might not. Houses are selling like hotcakes i...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

So, according to my calculation, you would have nearly 3 million had you invested in the stock market, and only 1.2 million with the house. Of course, I'm being simplistic with the numbers, but I think I'm in the ballpark. Where would they live? How much rent would they have to pay? You need to sub...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

Well, from Aug 1988 to Dec 2015 the S&P 500 returned 10.095% with dividends reinvested according to an online calculator. During the same time period (27.33 years) your parents house appreciated from $180k to 1.2 million for a return of 7.19%, assuming they paid all cash for the house. I didn't...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

neurosphere wrote:Are we supposed to ignore property taxes, maintenance, insurance, etc?

What about closing costs at the purchase, and any selling costs/fees they would need in order to cash out of their investment?


That's a good point, not to mention intangibles, such as the headache of being a landlord.
by joer1212
Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2447

NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

I am having a heated debate with my parents. They claim that their house-- which they purchased in Aug, 1988 for $180,000, and is now worth 1.2 million-- was a better investment than if they had placed their money in the stock market. My gut instinct tells me that they're wrong. So, I'm deferring to...
by joer1212
Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

On another note, I am having difficulty finding a real-time stock quote for VISVX. This site seems to lag 1 day behind (What happened on Jan 5?? Did it not trade on that day? Every site only goes up to Jan 4): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VISVX+Interactive# Anyone know a site that is up to da...
by joer1212
Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

On another note, I am having difficulty finding a real-time stock quote for VISVX. This site seems to lag 1 day behind (What happened on Jan 5?? Did it not trade on that day? Every site only goes up to Jan 4): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VISVX+Interactive# Anyone know a site that is up to date?
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

... I actually saw this graph prior to posting here, but thanks for sharing. According to this graph, It appears that SCV outperforms SCG in most periods, even though they seem pretty correlated with each other. What you're seeing is period dependent and quite easily changed with different start or...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You asked what would be the metric that could be used to determine if a fund was truly a value fund. Since FF determined that the dominant factor in their value fund outperformance was valuation recovery, then I believe the best single metric would be P/E. A great study would be to look a...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

You seem to think that a "value" fund is a fund that is guaranteed to be investing in undervalued stocks that are sure to go up. To the contrary, I took a look at the top 10 stocks held in VISVX, and I must say I have little faith that some of them will recover any time soon: 1 Goodyear T...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Here's a full chart of the available data on S&P's Small-Cap Value vs. Small-Cap Growth indices. It covers almost 20 years. The end result over this period has them at just about the same performance. Yes, there were specific periods where one outperformed the other and in hindsight you might b...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You raise an interesting point. I suspect that there are periods of time when true value stocks vanish. Going back to the Graham & Dodd definition of a value stock ( selling below intrinsic value) , then when valuations are high, many of the value stocks in a value fund are no longer ...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

I need to be enlightened before I pull the trigger on VISVX. May I suggest that you take your finger off the trigger for a while. From the questions it appears that you may not be certain about what value funds are or what role you can reasonably expect them to play in your portfolio. I caution to ...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Since the market peak that occurred in October of 2007, small cap growth has outperformed small cap value (73% vs 45%), since the market bottom in March of 2009 SCG has outperformed SCV (307% vs 258%) - source JP Morgan Asset Mgmt. Coupled with the fact that SCV generally outperformed for most of t...
by joer1212
Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1381

Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Is now a bad time to purchase VISVX (Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Investor Shares) for my Roth IRA? I ask this because I've noticed that the PE ratio for this fund is currently at 16.4, and I'm wondering why a 'value' fund would even have a PE ratio to begin with. In other words, can a value ...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2408

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

an asset (the currency risk component in this case) with zero return cannot improve a portfolio unless it has a negative correlation with the rest if the portfolio--not low correlation, not zero correlation, but negative correlation, and not just negative correlation from a luck-of-the-draw short p...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2408

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

Here is the quote from Larry's article: --- Finally, we need to discuss one reason for having a low allocation to international stocks: the currency risk it entails—a risk for which there is no risk premium. However, this isn’t a good reason, because currency risk is actually a two-way, not a one-w...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2408

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

I don't see any benefit at all in assuming currency risk, unless currency risk had an expected long-term real return, which it does not. Currency risk only adds uncompensated volatility to one's portfolio. If Vanguard offered a low-cost, hedged Total International ex-US fund, I would sell my VTIAX p...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Huh, I would have thought the up fridays were caused by 401k contributions happening on Fridays. That was my first thought too. Every employer I've worked for has issued paychecks on Fridays, though sometimes the contributions showed up in the retirement account on Thursday. Many companies pay thei...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Taking the aggregated return for a particular day doesn't tell you anything because we expect them to vary due to random chance. The correct way to approach this problem would be dummy regressions corrected for multiple testing. If you flip ten coins and get 6 heads you cannot immediately assume th...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Let's suppose the effect exists. How big is it? Is an individual member of the mass affluent, buying retail, going to squeeze out enough extra return to overcome costs? Can you really do better chasing this effect than you can do just by using mutual funds and trying to get your personal weighted-a...
by joer1212
Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

kaudrey wrote:Over the past 20 years, 54.38% of Monday’s have gained on the day, averaging a return of 0.05%.


Maybe over a period of decades, the results would be different. I have observed the Monday Effect only for the past 2 years.
by joer1212
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

I don't suppose there's enough volume from us biweekly paycheck slobs' 401(k)s and 403(b)s and TSPs and whatever else that demand increases and therefore prices increase? This isn't market timing to me; just market annoying. That's actually a good point. I didn't consider this. But, whether there a...
by joer1212
Tue Jun 09, 2015 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Although I think Jeremy Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run is overoptimistic and has too much cheerleading stocks, it is nevertheless a first-rate book with a wealth of information. He devotes a chapter to calendar anomalies and several pages to "Day-of-the-Week effects." He comments that M...
by joer1212
Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

http://calendar-effects.behaviouralfinance.net/weekend-effect/ Links to several academic papers on the 'Monday Effect'... not all of their links work, but they have titles and authors so the paper could be found elsewhere. Bingo! I had no idea that this was a recognized phenomenon. I actually thoug...
by joer1212
Mon Jun 08, 2015 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

goingup wrote:If you bring this up to your 401K administrator, they will think you're loony.


I would not tell them the reason for switching my contribution day.
by joer1212
Mon Jun 08, 2015 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 7908

The 'Monday Effect'?

I have noticed that stocks tend to rise on Fridays and dip on Mondays. I don't know what this can be attributed to. Perhaps people get exuberant as the weekend draws near, and dejected when it ends? At any rate, I have been tracking the market for over 2 years now, and I have repeatedly noticed this...
by joer1212
Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) in Bond Funds
Replies: 18
Views: 2960

Re:

in general I think timing the bond market, or otherwise trying to pick and choose sectors/durations is not a great idea. on the other hand, I also don't think it matters. were talking bonds here. I think people debate bonds on their rest days from debating more important portfolio components. :mrgr...
by joer1212
Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Total Bond
Replies: 29
Views: 8632

Re: Larry Swedroe on Total Bond

The forums seem like most bogleheads are recommending the Total Bond Fund for bond allocation. Am I reading this correctly? My sense is that the popular recommendations are - short term high quality - TIPS - TBM - some combination, particularly TBM/TIPS 50/50 not necessarily in that order. Are you ...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

Do you personally tilt your portfolio towards value funds, as described above, or do you simply invest in the broad, market-weighed index? (my strategy) I overweight small-cap and value. However, I do this as a way to increase both risk and return. I expect that there is an extra risk in value stoc...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

Curiously, or perhaps not, the behavioral gap is reversed when it comes to target date and broad market (as opposed to sector) index funds and investors in such actually perform slightly better than the fund, and it's because they don't get bored or tired of the underperformance, but stick with the...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

While overweighting specific distressed areas is probably not a good idea, the general idea is reasonable. Value investing is a popular strategy: buy stocks which have low prices relative to other measures of corporate value (price/earnings or price/book are the most common measures). As a value in...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

(6) When this strategy underperforms badly and for a long period of time, you will bail out. This likely endpoint probably subtracts a good number of basis points from your prospective returns. But can't the same be said for any fund, including U.S.-based ones? Yet we don't hesitate to purchase a d...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

Keeping a large component in cash is probably unwise. Even if you want to shift around tactical allocations with some or all of the money, you should probably just pull funds from currently owned equities riding high(er) valuations and/or bonds, rather than have heavy cash drag a lot of the time. A...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

I'd like to meet your coworker, who is smarter than the army of math PhDs and software developers ,and who has CPU cycles on the fastest computers accessing massive databases. I sure hope he is actually smarter than them, because they are only betting other people's money, so it's not that painful ...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

Your co-worker did not tell you about all the money they lost in other investments. :) The natural Boglehead act of rebalancing takes advantage of funds that have dropped in value. Many folks and studies do not rebalance at opportune times, so they really do not see an advantage to rebalancing. Can...
by joer1212
Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

My thinking is, such an idea as investing in Greek and Russian individual stocks isn't a Boglehead investment strategy, not even a hybrid. From your friend's description, it sounds like a sure thing. If you want to do it, use play waste money. Paul He doesn't invest in individual stocks. He invests...
by joer1212
Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Hybrid Investment Strategy for Bogleheads

The other day, I was talking with a coworker who claims that he keeps several hundred thousand dollars in cash in order to invest in stock funds when they become historically low. He said he has invested in a Russian stock market fund, and has already racked up some handsome returns. He is looking t...
by joer1212
Fri Dec 12, 2014 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?

Just got a surprise at Vanguard. It turns out that if I rebalance, I won't be able to do it again for the next 60 days (except by mail). I understand why they impose this rule, but it can be detrimental to an investor with volatile funds such as precious metals. You can certainly do it again, just ...
by joer1212
Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?

Just got a surprise at Vanguard. It turns out that if I rebalance, I won't be able to do it again for the next 60 days (except by mail). I understand why they impose this rule, but it can be detrimental to an investor with volatile funds such as precious metals.
by joer1212
Fri Dec 12, 2014 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Re: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?

Some first things first: 1. You should assess all your investments as a whole. One would not normally target an asset allocation in a single account such as a Roth all by itself. (If you do, then the answer is that you rebalance TIPS the same as anything else.) 2. Rebalancing is for the purpose of ...
by joer1212
Fri Dec 12, 2014 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treat Bonds Like Stocks?
Replies: 8
Views: 808

Treat Bonds Like Stocks?

Should I rebalance TIPS in my portfolio the same way I rebalance stocks? I have 3 funds in my Roth IRA: Vanguard TIPS (VIPSX), Vanguard REITS (VGSIX), and Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining (VGPMX). REITs are significantly up in value, but the other two funds are down. Should I simply rebalance (se...

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