Search found 321 matches

by joer1212
Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I allocate 20% of my portfolio (100% equity) to Vanguard's small-cap blend fund. I figure I'll get some of the size premium, at least. Now I read that small-cap growth tends to underperform the broader market, so I wonder whether this is counterproductive. The value component in Vanguard's small-ca...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Why I recommend The Three-Fund Portfolio

he link proves that TSM has better risk-weighted returns than an SCV tilt, or any other tilt for that matter, if I read it right. IF that's true then tilting is inefficient (less risk-weighted return). I would add that time eventually negates the "risk" of owning SCV. If a 25 year-old wan...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I allocate 20% of my portfolio (100% equity) to Vanguard's small-cap blend fund. I figure I'll get some of the size premium, at least. Now I read that small-cap growth tends to underperform the broader market, so I wonder whether this is counterproductive. The value component in Vanguard's small-ca...
by joer1212
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Okay joer1212 and taylor what do think of this portfolio and no it's not mind. This is a Larry portfolio notice no Total stock market etf or fund. I myself own mostly Vanguard index funds, but I do hold one Cef HTD( John Hancock tax advantaged dividend income fund) it has been one of my core holdin...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

CashBalance wrote:it could be said that those who choose a three fund portfolio strategy aren't necessarily bogleheads because they're not following Jack Bogle's philosophy of investing only in the US market.


Good point.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

These Merriman pieces that disrespect Total Stock Market are discussed from time to time: 2008: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=18759 2014: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=151204 2015: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=158806 Clearly, he favors slice...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

I think Merriman fails to consider tax efficiency in his recommendations. And, most people will not have access to most funds contained in his 'tax-deferred' portfolios in their 401(k)'s.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

nisiprius wrote:The debate between the total-market types (such as me) and the factor mavens is interesting and isn't trivial. Merriman's article does nothing to clarify or explain the issue and does a great deal to obfuscate it.


He gets into more detail in the audio clip.
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Yes, the vanguard total stock market fund is dominated by large cap. I don't know what's controversial about that. That's what you end up with if you design an index by cap-weight. He's arguing that investing by cap weight (purist Boglehead style) is unlikely to result in optimal performance over t...
by joer1212
Mon Jul 18, 2016 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7704

Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

Has anyone here ever heard this guy? He makes some controversial statements about Boglehead-style investing, yet I have to admit that some of it makes sense: http://paulmerriman.com/10-reasons-dont-like-vanguards-total-stock-market-index-fund/ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-vanguard-total-stoc...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I think it's a question of 1) determining stock/bond allocation; 2) determining how much of bond allocation to allocate to TIPS, if any; 3) determining how to hold TIPS. If using a fund, then I agree, simply rebalancing as with any other fund is what I would do. Thanks. The reason I was confused ab...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

wander wrote:I have VIPSX in my bond portfolio. YTD is 7.57%. I don't see any problem holding this fund.


Do you rebalance VIPSX when necessary?
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I would agree with this statement if TIPS had some prospective return (like they normally would), but with the current interest rate environment there is a strong likelihood of a prospective loss . I have no problem accepting lower return in exchange for lower risk, but it's quite another matter to...
by joer1212
Sun Jul 10, 2016 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

If you think TIPS are too low returning, you shouldn't be invested in them in the first place. If your only measure of effectiveness is prospective return you should seek out the riskiest highest prospective return assets you can find and put all your money there. You certainly would not be owning ...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

I don't know what would be so bad about just setting a fixed allocation and rebalancing. I could be wrong, but the problem I see with this strategy is that even if TIPS is the worst-performing asset class in your portfolio, it can still be a bad idea to rebalance (add money) into it, particularly i...
by joer1212
Sat Jul 09, 2016 3:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio

saltycaper wrote:
joer1212 wrote:Maybe you're looking at prices that are a little outdated. It looks to me that VIPSX is actually near a 3-yr high.


Based on this graph, TIPS were above the current level in May, 2013:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VIPSX+Interactive
by joer1212
Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

VIPSX in a Diversified Portfolio [Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities]

I'm a bit confused about how VIPSX (Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund) should be managed in a diversified portfolio. Should it be rebalanced, like any other fund, or should the current yield be taken into account when deciding whether to put more money into it? For example, the net asset ...
by joer1212
Mon Apr 04, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 2000 underperformance
Replies: 13
Views: 2424

Re: Russell 2000 underperformance

Simple question (that I can't seem to find an answer to anywhere): What percentage of the Russell 2000 stock index consists of growth vs. value stocks? Is it evenly split (50%/50%)? 50/50 - by definition. There is true for most indexes. There is no absolute measure of growth / value. This is the im...
by joer1212
Sun Apr 03, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Russell 2000 underperformance
Replies: 13
Views: 2424

Re: Russell 2000 underperformance

Simple question (that I can't seem to find an answer to anywhere): What percentage of the Russell 2000 stock index consists of growth vs. value stocks? Is it evenly split (50%/50%)?
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 113
Views: 15800

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

I would expect a positive return today. By "some kind of average" I don't mean to equal weight. The latest report says it's heavier in precious metals equity. A cursory glance at the top ten holdings indicates that as well. Also, you can check recent daily correlation with other funds, wh...
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 113
Views: 15800

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Angst wrote:Right now, M* says:
PICK -3.42%
RING +2.90%


So, which of these two reflects today's performance of VGPMX (not that any mortal would know)?
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 113
Views: 15800

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Slightly off topic: How can I track VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund) in real time? Yahoo! Finance only shows its performance for the prior day, not the current one. I've tried searching for ETF's that track the same benchmark as VGPMX, but I haven't found any. An equivalent ETF woul...
by joer1212
Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?
Replies: 113
Views: 15800

Re: What to do with VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining)?

Slightly off topic: How can I track VGPMX (Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund) in real time? Yahoo! Finance only shows its performance for the prior day, not the current one. I've tried searching for ETF's that track the same benchmark as VGPMX, but I haven't found any. An equivalent ETF would...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

I am having a heated debate with my parents. They claim that their house-- which they purchased in Aug, 1988 for $180,000, and is now worth 1.2 million-- was a better investment than if they had placed their money in the stock market. My gut instinct tells me that they're wrong. So, I'm deferring t...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

...was a better investment... Here's the tricky part: conflating a good outcome with a good strategy. From the 1980s until today, NYC real estate (whether a rental property or a primary residence) beat the pants off of investing in a stock market index fund. But, for that matter, buying individual ...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

Unless your parents actually sell the house, they really cannot know the "worth". They can get interesting estimates, but without a buyer you cannot come to any definitive conclusions. When the time comes to sell, they might get lucky, or they might not. Houses are selling like hotcakes i...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

So, according to my calculation, you would have nearly 3 million had you invested in the stock market, and only 1.2 million with the house. Of course, I'm being simplistic with the numbers, but I think I'm in the ballpark. Where would they live? How much rent would they have to pay? You need to sub...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

Well, from Aug 1988 to Dec 2015 the S&P 500 returned 10.095% with dividends reinvested according to an online calculator. During the same time period (27.33 years) your parents house appreciated from $180k to 1.2 million for a return of 7.19%, assuming they paid all cash for the house. I didn't...
by joer1212
Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

Re: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

neurosphere wrote:Are we supposed to ignore property taxes, maintenance, insurance, etc?

What about closing costs at the purchase, and any selling costs/fees they would need in order to cash out of their investment?


That's a good point, not to mention intangibles, such as the headache of being a landlord.
by joer1212
Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market
Replies: 38
Views: 2826

NY Real Estate vs. The Stock Market

I am having a heated debate with my parents. They claim that their house-- which they purchased in Aug, 1988 for $180,000, and is now worth 1.2 million-- was a better investment than if they had placed their money in the stock market. My gut instinct tells me that they're wrong. So, I'm deferring to...
by joer1212
Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

On another note, I am having difficulty finding a real-time stock quote for VISVX. This site seems to lag 1 day behind (What happened on Jan 5?? Did it not trade on that day? Every site only goes up to Jan 4): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VISVX+Interactive# Anyone know a site that is up to da...
by joer1212
Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

On another note, I am having difficulty finding a real-time stock quote for VISVX. This site seems to lag 1 day behind (What happened on Jan 5?? Did it not trade on that day? Every site only goes up to Jan 4): http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VISVX+Interactive# Anyone know a site that is up to date?
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

... I actually saw this graph prior to posting here, but thanks for sharing. According to this graph, It appears that SCV outperforms SCG in most periods, even though they seem pretty correlated with each other. What you're seeing is period dependent and quite easily changed with different start or...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You asked what would be the metric that could be used to determine if a fund was truly a value fund. Since FF determined that the dominant factor in their value fund outperformance was valuation recovery, then I believe the best single metric would be P/E. A great study would be to look a...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

You seem to think that a "value" fund is a fund that is guaranteed to be investing in undervalued stocks that are sure to go up. To the contrary, I took a look at the top 10 stocks held in VISVX, and I must say I have little faith that some of them will recover any time soon: 1 Goodyear T...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Here's a full chart of the available data on S&P's Small-Cap Value vs. Small-Cap Growth indices. It covers almost 20 years. The end result over this period has them at just about the same performance. Yes, there were specific periods where one outperformed the other and in hindsight you might b...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You raise an interesting point. I suspect that there are periods of time when true value stocks vanish. Going back to the Graham & Dodd definition of a value stock ( selling below intrinsic value) , then when valuations are high, many of the value stocks in a value fund are no longer ...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

I need to be enlightened before I pull the trigger on VISVX. May I suggest that you take your finger off the trigger for a while. From the questions it appears that you may not be certain about what value funds are or what role you can reasonably expect them to play in your portfolio. I caution to ...
by joer1212
Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Since the market peak that occurred in October of 2007, small cap growth has outperformed small cap value (73% vs 45%), since the market bottom in March of 2009 SCG has outperformed SCV (307% vs 258%) - source JP Morgan Asset Mgmt. Coupled with the fact that SCV generally outperformed for most of t...
by joer1212
Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1555

Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

Is now a bad time to purchase VISVX (Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Investor Shares) for my Roth IRA? I ask this because I've noticed that the PE ratio for this fund is currently at 16.4, and I'm wondering why a 'value' fund would even have a PE ratio to begin with. In other words, can a value ...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2628

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

an asset (the currency risk component in this case) with zero return cannot improve a portfolio unless it has a negative correlation with the rest if the portfolio--not low correlation, not zero correlation, but negative correlation, and not just negative correlation from a luck-of-the-draw short p...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2628

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

Here is the quote from Larry's article: --- Finally, we need to discuss one reason for having a low allocation to international stocks: the currency risk it entails—a risk for which there is no risk premium. However, this isn’t a good reason, because currency risk is actually a two-way, not a one-w...
by joer1212
Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock allocation: currency risk
Replies: 37
Views: 2628

Re: International stock allocation: currency risk

I don't see any benefit at all in assuming currency risk, unless currency risk had an expected long-term real return, which it does not. Currency risk only adds uncompensated volatility to one's portfolio. If Vanguard offered a low-cost, hedged Total International ex-US fund, I would sell my VTIAX p...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 8253

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Huh, I would have thought the up fridays were caused by 401k contributions happening on Fridays. That was my first thought too. Every employer I've worked for has issued paychecks on Fridays, though sometimes the contributions showed up in the retirement account on Thursday. Many companies pay thei...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 8253

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Taking the aggregated return for a particular day doesn't tell you anything because we expect them to vary due to random chance. The correct way to approach this problem would be dummy regressions corrected for multiple testing. If you flip ten coins and get 6 heads you cannot immediately assume th...
by joer1212
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 8253

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

Let's suppose the effect exists. How big is it? Is an individual member of the mass affluent, buying retail, going to squeeze out enough extra return to overcome costs? Can you really do better chasing this effect than you can do just by using mutual funds and trying to get your personal weighted-a...
by joer1212
Tue Jun 09, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 'Monday Effect'?
Replies: 50
Views: 8253

Re: The 'Monday Effect'?

kaudrey wrote:Over the past 20 years, 54.38% of Monday’s have gained on the day, averaging a return of 0.05%.


Maybe over a period of decades, the results would be different. I have observed the Monday Effect only for the past 2 years.

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