Search found 289 matches

by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1047
Views: 582021

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1047
Views: 582021

Simple boostrap: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

I thought I'd share a spreadsheet to allow folks to do a dirty 40 year 3-year moving bootstrap of the whole simba dataset with some simple results such as cagr, sustained withdrawal rate. You need to download to excel for it to work. Note this is a very primitive spreadsheet, just to get folks think...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1047
Views: 582021

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowering My Grocery Bill
Replies: 110
Views: 6915

Re: Lowering My Grocery Bill

The closer you buy to generic items rather than processed the cheaper. For instance, if you buy dry pintos and tortillas and make them in the pressure cooker your burritos will cost much lower than if you buy burritos. Buy cheap cuts of meat like chuck or whole cut up chicken too.
by jmk
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your favorite Costco wines?
Replies: 40
Views: 3917

Re: Your favorite Costco wines?

I'm a foodie but don't find the costco wines worth their $. I sometimes buy cases of Costco Blackstone when it's on sale for $5 a bottle; but I find Trader Joe's $4-6 range wines are a better value for the money. I appreciate good wine--but when trying to achieve the FI savings rates people talk abo...
by jmk
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?
Replies: 2
Views: 353

Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?

I am about three years from FI at age 57 so am starting to think about different withdrawal strategies. I have a pretty good handle on converting my "traditional" 403bs to Roths during my early retirement in order to eliminate future RMDs. But I'm having trouble getting my head around what to do wit...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4602

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

We have been conditioned to believe that when approaching and entering retirement, a significant portion of our portfolio should be in bonds. But at least in these scenarios, and within the universe of the historical data used by cFIREsim, the “safety of bonds” seems illusory for an investor that h...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2112

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Bootstrapping is another alternative to historical returns or Monte Carlo based on statistical parameters. I prefer it, though it suffers its own limitations. Bootstrapping invokes random sampling of the past. In other words, different sequences of the same historical data. One can incorporate cycle...
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 12
Views: 2730

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

Just a quick note for those coming to this topic late that the I-ORP author changed things so users may choose to not reduce SS in 2036 with a simple checkbox.
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 127
Views: 12925

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

...Since I retired at 61, if I postponed SS to age 70 to maximize total retirement spending, I'd draw down my 401k by 40% before I got there, OTOH, if I took SS at 62, the drawdown is no more than 10%. Postponing SS to 70 results in about 1% more total spending in retirement (from 61-95), but I did...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 686

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

Let's say you create a bucket with 40% total stock market and 60% total bond (or a tax-exempt bond fund if more appropriate). According to Portfolio Visualizer, since 1987, this would have resulted in a real CAGR of 5.24%, 6.59% standard deviation, and a max drawdown of just slightly less than 20% ...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 686

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

in 7-10 years we'll need a new roof. At some point, I would like to buy a new car (though mine is running just fine for now). Etc. I'm in same position and I use a separate taxable bucket for anticipated expenses over next 7-10 years: roof, a/c, new car, etc. I have my long term monies spread acros...
by jmk
Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 175
Views: 18043

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

The part I'm thinking of using an FA for is optimizing withdrawals from SS / tax sheltered / taxable withdrawals and tax efficiency. Also, monte carlo simulations. I know there's programs out there like I-ORP; but don't the FAs have access to more complex software?
by jmk
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused
Replies: 12
Views: 1358

Re: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused

Are there any quantitative resources to support the strategy of bonds -> tax advantaged accounts (or vice versa?)? I found the analysis and spreadsheets at http://www.retailinvestor.org/RRSPmodel.html very helpful in trying to figure out the nuances. I draw your attention especially to "RRSP Decisi...
by jmk
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 14642

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Use the tools bar and look for instant X-ray on the drop down. You should not have to have a free trial for the instant x-ray. You just have to enter your tickers and add how many dollars on each fund. It will give you the complete x-ray after you enter the info. thank you! i was trying to do xray;...
by jmk
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 14642

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Is there any free service that is similar to the Morningstar "portfolio x-ray" feature? The x-ray service at Morningstar has a free mode. You just have to hand enter your portfolio each time to get the X-Ray from one of the drop down categories. If you are tracking a portfolio there, just use the d...
by jmk
Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 64
Views: 14642

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

dwickenh wrote:
Tue Sep 26, 2017 5:27 pm
Agree that without a subscription it can be aggravating. I do not subscribe as I think the price is too high for the product.
Is there any free service that is similar to the Morningstar "portfolio x-ray" feature?
by jmk
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US I-bonds to 529 plan/ Tax question
Replies: 6
Views: 617

Re: US I-bonds to 529 plan/ Tax question

Oddly the 8815 form doesn't mention 529s. Does the 529 rollover need to happen the same year you spend on the educational expenses just as if you're using the bonds directly for education expenses? As an aside, is the rollover a way around the restriction on Treasuries for tuition only (no room and ...
by jmk
Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?
Replies: 39
Views: 4020

Re: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?

You should know what your pension & SS would be if you were 65 next week based on today's wages. And you know what your RMD would be also be based on the IRA balance today. Decide on that basis if you would do a ROTH conversion this December. Next year do the calculation again based on the newer da...
by jmk
Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?
Replies: 39
Views: 4020

Re: Is a Roth conversion a good idea if you are in the 15% tax bracket?

Under current law you will probably not be in the 15% marginal tax rate when you start taking social security because up to 85% of you SS becomes taxable for each dollar of other income you have - like RMD's. So in the 15% bracket you marginal rate may be 27.75% not 15%. And you qual divs and LTCG ...
by jmk
Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4988

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Their results are a bit unexpected given the fairly wide range around their predicted value of US equity large; but I suppose the low end of EAFE is still above the high range of US Large. From their web site: Valuation based model (CAPE) (real) -3.3 to 4.4% (0.5% avg) Yield & Growth model (Gordon) ...
by jmk
Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Having First Child a little later in life, Debt just paid, Help Us Check In
Replies: 14
Views: 1747

Re: Having First Child a little later in life, Debt just paid, Help Us Check In

adam61 wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:07 am
I’ve never wanted to deal with the tax considerations and other terms that come with taxable accounts outside CD/SAV/I-bonds which are just simple interest.
Mental block aside, you could also use savings bonds to pay college tuition tax free.
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank
Replies: 13
Views: 1960

Re: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank

If I were you, plan a trip up to anywhere close to you in Canada to appear in a branch, and document yourself to them That's what they said: "the Edmonton fair is wonderful." , Why keep the account if you are never going to visit Canada ?... plus you have foreign bank reporting requirements (FBAR, ...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are quality exterior doors worth it?
Replies: 17
Views: 2206

Re: Are quality exterior doors worth it?

It's nice they stand by their work, but warranties are an actuarial bet and the chances of anyone calling in that warranty in decades are essentially zero. I agree. I've seen a lot of doors in houses that are decades old and still in good shape. In fact, I can't think I've ever seen a door fail oth...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 778

Re: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

If you reinvest dividends in a mutual fund, the fund has to purchase the underlying assets, and there will be a spread there, too. I don't think there's much of a difference. One you see very plainly, the other you don't. I may ignorant but aren't mutual funds ought and sold at a single price at en...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 888

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Well, M* says that the minimum investment is $5 million. I guess I will take a pass on this opportunity. There are some brokerages where you can buy N shares for around $3K minimums in IRAs, like Fidelity. Some have access to institutional shares through advisers as well. For the record I have only...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 888

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Well, M* says that the minimum investment is $5 million. I guess I will take a pass on this opportunity. There are some brokerages where you can buy N shares for around $3K minimums in IRAs, like Fidelity. Some have access to institutional shares through advisers as well. For the record I have $280...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 778

Re: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

There is NO bid/ask spread at the opening cross when Vanguard executes the order for dividend reinvestment, so the bid/ask spread does not come into play when Vanguard is one's broker: "Rounding error" isn't the same as bid-ask spread, and looks miniscule. Ok, so if all that's true then I am probab...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 888

Re: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

Just a simple statement of what I found. ... By all the measures shown by PortfolioVisualizer, it's been better in every way. This much I know. Of course we don't know how the fund would react in a crash. And more importantly, since it's "safety" is from balancing shorting and leverage, we don't kn...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?
Replies: 14
Views: 778

Does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestment?

Please forgive the noob question, but does bid-ask spread matter with automatic reinvestments of ETFs? I ask because I try to avoid rebalancing VSS since it has a fairly large spread. Yet I have it set for automatic reinvest rather than sending money to my MM account where I could re-invest it in un...
by jmk
Wed Sep 20, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?
Replies: 11
Views: 888

is AQR long-short really less risky than TSM?

AQR Long-Short fund (QLEIX) varies its beta between 0.3 and 0.7, "intending on average a beta of 0.5". It's benchmark is 0.5 treasuries + 0.5 msci world. On paper this is a conservative fund. But is this type of fund really less risky (by half) than a vanilla total world market fund? In a 50% crash ...
by jmk
Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are quality exterior doors worth it?
Replies: 17
Views: 2206

Are quality exterior doors worth it?

We need to replace a simple rear exterior door. A salesman offered one for $3000 installed that was "dense foam" and came with a lifetime warrantee that carries over to next owner (for all but exterior paint). Is there any real difference between this $3000 door and one I can get at Home Depot or lo...
by jmk
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank
Replies: 13
Views: 1960

Help me solve: Not allowed access to savings at Canadian bank

My parents listed me as joint owner of a savings account at the CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) in Alberta Canada, and after they passed I became the sole owner. I live in USA many thousands of miles away. I get statements each year and report the tiny income on my taxes but am repeatedly ...
by jmk
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds - Update
Replies: 58
Views: 6874

Re: International Bonds - Update

The "diversification" benefit, if it exists at all, is pretty darned small--probably because a high quality bond is a high quality bond regardless of what country the issuer is from, and because what with transborder money flow it seems unlikely that national interest rates could diverge by very mu...
by jmk
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 5214

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

EMH equalizing sharpe ratio assumes all that matters to the market is getting the most return per volatility. While that matters, others things matter too. So the fact the different sharpe ratios have persisted so long implies there are other trade offs at work.
by jmk
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 vs Capital One Money Market
Replies: 6
Views: 1083

Re: Capital One 360 vs Capital One Money Market

Thinking about moving from 360 to the Money Market acct. Only difference I can tell is 0.75% vs 1.2% APY in favor of Money Market, and needing $10k minimum for the Money Market Has anyone here made this switch before? Anything to look out for? This is for my regular savings account Also, any reason...
by jmk
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?
Replies: 9
Views: 1324

Re: first time secondary CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?

1) if you pay a premium over par, then that premium is not FDIC insured. This is just what I needed, thanks. So this is why they have higher yields. Just to be sure I get it, sample from today: Goldman Sachs CD maturing 4/16/2024: price bid/ask 102.24, 103.410. So FDIC only covers 96.59%? (Is the F...
by jmk
Sun Sep 10, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?
Replies: 9
Views: 1324

first time CD through V Brokerage: any cautions?

I've always bought retails CDs but since I'm not considering redeeming before maturity I am considering getting non-callable 7 year CDs on the secondary market through Vanguard. It looks very straightforward but I have little experience with brokerage accounts or secondary markets. Is there anything...
by jmk
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When calculating net worth, how do you value your house?
Replies: 167
Views: 9466

Re: When calculating net worth, how do you value your house?

For what it's worth, I take zillow estimate and multiply by a factor. The factor reflects the actual Assessor's estimate when I bought the house and when I refinanced. For instance, last time I refinanced Zillow said house was worth $180,290 but was appraised on loan at $164,000. Now Zillow says hou...
by jmk
Sun Sep 03, 2017 2:54 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 18347

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I agree, and it's due to the big names. But on the other hand, the wiki is much more robust than the old days, and much of the wisdom of the old guys has been memorialized there.
by jmk
Sat Aug 26, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals
Replies: 20
Views: 1891

Re: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals

I am thinking to keep the 70/30 allocation in my tax advantage accounts, which are purely long term for retirement, and I don't care if they drop significantly at this point (would actually be helpful if they did). Then I would take my taxable account and treat it with a different asset allocation,...
by jmk
Sat Aug 26, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 87
Views: 23993

Proxy Issues 2 3 for Index Funds?

I was curious about folks feelings about the "manager of manager" arrangement as it applied to index funds. I noticed some of my index funds were affected, and can't figure out why they would need this: 2Approve a manager of managers arrangement with third-party investment advisors. 3Approve a manag...
by jmk
Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: times change
Replies: 0
Views: 497

times change

Happened to see this in the forum from 2008: Rick Ferri said: Perhaps someday Vanguard will launch an international real estate index fund that charges reasonable fees. I'm sure that will be around the same time they launch a passive international small cap and emerging small cap funds/ETF's. :wink:...
by jmk
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals
Replies: 20
Views: 1891

Re: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals

I did some analysis with PortfolioVisualizer, and during market downturns the 40/60 stocks/bonds did better than 50/50 (not too surprising), and yet 50/50 didn't seem to return that much higher during market booms (over 3-5 year periods). Admittedly, this wasn't an exhaustive analysis of all 3-5 ye...
by jmk
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals
Replies: 20
Views: 1891

Re: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals

I did some analysis with PortfolioVisualizer, and during market downturns the 40/60 stocks/bonds did better than 50/50 (not too surprising), and yet 50/50 didn't seem to return that much higher during market booms (over 3-5 year periods). Admittedly, this wasn't an exhaustive analysis of all 3-5 ye...
by jmk
Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals
Replies: 20
Views: 1891

Re: Help with Next Steps: How to manage investing with various goals

Thanks to all for the helpful advice. I've been off thinking about this a lot, and making some of the easier decisions. I've paid off the two small loans and have adjusted my payroll deductions to fully max out my and my wife's 401k. We will contribute the max to both IRAs each year as well. My cur...
by jmk
Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophy major and future law student
Replies: 93
Views: 5615

Re: Philosophy major and future law student

It turns out Philosophy has a very high salary compared to many other majors: higher than undergrad business even. Most philosophers do not go into academia but other professions, where they use their thinking skills taught in philosophy. Nothing stops him getting a double major in philosophy and co...
by jmk
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scooter for local commute - Honda PCX 150, etc...
Replies: 44
Views: 2738

Re: Scooter for local commute - Honda PCX 150, etc...

As a scooter commuter, 150cc isn't overkill. For safety you want to have the ability to accelerate out of problems when necessary. You also want to be able to ride in traffic at speed, again for safety. (Going slow on side or riding slower than traffic is dangerous.) Having the power doesn't mean yo...
by jmk
Sun Jul 23, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments best use of expensive 401k?
Replies: 12
Views: 683

Re: Alternative Investments best use of expensive 401k?

Sorry, I don't think your reasoning is sound. I think you should use the Total STock and the Total Bond. Why? On the Total Bond Fund with yield of 2.4, I'd lose a third right off the top! Well, do you have other accounts to hold all your bonds? There could be other solutions, but we have not seen t...