Search found 322 matches

by jmk
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?
Replies: 50
Views: 3122

Re: What advantages do a personalized portfolio have over a target date fund, in your opinion?

The biggest advantage of separate funds for me is tax efficiency. I'm in the 15% bracket so shoving my entire bond and CD portion into my tax-deferred I get more return, and my stock in taxable is at 0% capital gains. The same AA in target funds would generate more taxes. I do use Life Strategy fund...
by jmk
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?
Replies: 70
Views: 5923

Re: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?

VPW, by only considering the current state of the portfolio, not taking into account the withdrawal history, is able to adapt to the current situation, regardless of what it happens to be. Right. One way of thinking about VPW is that the PMT formula at its basis "smooths" out the future expected re...
by jmk
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 4192

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Thanks for posting that. I often wonder why people think the sequence of returns does not matter during accumulation. It is the same math with a different sign on the withdrawals. Note there is a planning difference that you get to see the outcome before you do something rash like retiring, while i...
by jmk
Sat Feb 17, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 5272

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Chiltepins.
Curry Leaves.
by jmk
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?
Replies: 37
Views: 3466

Re: Larry Swedroe's portfolio: does the fact that SC are expensive cause a problem?

The underlying point LP is to use higher expected return funds in order to increase safe portion to control tail risk. So if sc doesn’t suit you you could use more emerging or a smart beta fund.
by jmk
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns
Replies: 9
Views: 590

Re: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:29 pm
quote
That quotation from philosophicaleconomics is spot on. To put it another way, the error band around the prediction is so great that 10% here or there is really a false confidence.
by jmk
Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns
Replies: 9
Views: 590

Re: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns

I'm talking about using Cape10 for a long-term (15-20y) forecast of expected returns.
by jmk
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 11810

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

Although I've had assets since 2000, this is the first correction I've been through where I've had very large amounts at stake, $ amounts larger than salaries. Though I had mentally prepared for a correction (even having a separate tab on my spreadsheet for 20% crash), it was different in real time....
by jmk
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 574

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Since you both have retirement plans I don't see how you could get a different number for each person. You might want to check out this calculator also https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras/ira_calculators/roth_vs_traditional It seemed to give the...
by jmk
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 5337

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

A quick note on this topic: I discovered one disadvantage of CDs today for safe portion of retirement. For tax purposes I'm needing to recharacterize my Roth bank CD to Traditional IRAs, and am going to have to pay not only the early-withdrawal penalty but also accept a lower interest rate on the re...
by jmk
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional
Replies: 8
Views: 430

Re: TIAA Traditional

Do you keep a spreadsheet of all your retirement assets? Then you could lump all your "safe" assets and "risky" assets to ensure your overall AA was maintained. You would put all your 403b, IRAs, and taxable monies devoted to retirement into the spreadsheet. If you want 60/40 overall, then the Bond ...
by jmk
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Traditional
Replies: 8
Views: 430

Re: TIAA Traditional

TIAA Traditional is a fine addition since it is "stable value"-- different from bonds and CDs but also "safe". I wish I had access to more of it. :) However if you are pleased with your existing Asset Allocation may I suggest you make sure all your funds taken together maintain a suitable AA. If you...
by jmk
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 574

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Since you both have retirement plans I don't see how you could get a different number for each person. You might want to check out this calculator also https://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/retirement_and_planning/understanding_iras/ira_calculators/roth_vs_traditional It seemed to give the...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 574

Re: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

Is one of you NOT a participant in a workplace retirement plan for 2017? Any spouse who is NOT a participant can deduct their full contribution. Whether any spouse deducts their contribution or not does NOT change MAGI for purposes of the deduction. My apologies for forgetting to mention that both ...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Market Index Fund vs. CDs?
Replies: 33
Views: 4744

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund vs. CDs?

For long term money it probably won't matter much. But for me it comes down to: TBM has volatility but is easily accessible. But be ready for it to drop if you access it sooner than the fund's duration: the TBM I bought in June 2016 has earned about 0% two years later (there was a 4.5% drop in 2016 ...
by jmk
Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ
Replies: 6
Views: 574

Confused about tIRA deduction limits for MFJ

I'm confused how the MAGI traditional IRA limits work for married jointly couples, both with work plans. I want to make sure I'm doing this year's taxes correctly. I'm recharacterizing some of our 2017 Roth. Our MAGI this year was $103,491 so we can't deduct the whole amount. Do we figure the deduct...
by jmk
Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Better use taxable than horrible 403b?
Replies: 6
Views: 679

Re: Better use taxable than horrible 403b?

The best calculator I know for figuring it out is the tab "401k vs Taxable" on this downloadable spreadsheet from another forum: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B45krBaG0b6KTWZDeXEySVBHVXc/view?usp=sharing/ You'll need to enter years before rolling over, expected returns in each asset class, extra ...
by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator
Replies: 43
Views: 2622

Re: Recommend an A.C. powered auto tire inflator

Harbor Freight has a variety of cheap ones of different sizes. I don't use it that often so quality wasn't key. I was so cheap I bought a smaller one that I have to "refill" for each tire.
by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are land line phones still being supported?
Replies: 60
Views: 3942

Re: Are land line phones still being supported?

In my neck of the woods they are still supported. I have one!
by jmk
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns
Replies: 9
Views: 590

Quick question how to use cape10 to estimate returns

In estimating returns does one need to adjust for the fact the CAPE10 earnings, though in real dollars, reflect "old" real earnings? More specifically, since real earnings tend to increase ~2% per year and the cape10 is on average 5 years old, do we need to multiply by 10%? I seem to remember Larry ...
by jmk
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds and New Tax Law -- any changes?
Replies: 19
Views: 1876

Re: I Bonds and New Tax Law -- any changes?

4. They can be used tax-free for qualifying educational expenses. This last one is often overlooked. I'm using my ibonds to pay for our child's tuition in 10 years in lieu of a 529. Even with cashing them in a few years early, it makes more sense than a 529 since I would be paying income tax otherw...
by jmk
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605669

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Wonder if spreadsheet should switch from cpi-u going forward? Under the previous tax law, inflation is measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, also known as the CPI-U, which essentially tracks the cost of goods and services that affect the typical household. The new law adopts...
by jmk
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605669

Re: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]

Wonder if spreadsheet should switch from cpi-u going forward? Under the previous tax law, inflation is measured by the consumer price index for all urban consumers, also known as the CPI-U, which essentially tracks the cost of goods and services that affect the typical household. The new law adopts ...
by jmk
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can easily experiment with different buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. On paper some seem to work. Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool, but the one thing missing from their Moving Averages Model is the ability to model withdrawals. Instead, their Moving Averages Model assumes that you hav...
by jmk
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 199
Views: 31112

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

It seems to me that the discount rate should be consistent with the safest real LT rate that matches the duration of the liability. That would a TIPS rate. Since TIPS only go out 30 years the 30 year TIPS rate should be used for liabilities far in the future, i.e. it should be used for young invest...
by jmk
Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision
Replies: 41
Views: 3132

Re: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision

EE can function nicelyfor liability matching. However their lack of liquidity has two big impacts: not only do I need to wait 20 years but I’ll have no wiggle room at that point in not withdrawing, affecting taxes. I bought EE to be used for income during that period before SS kicked in, but stopped...
by jmk
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3919

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can experiment with simple buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. Not the CAPE ones though. On paper some seem to work.
by jmk
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Join the Wiki!
Replies: 51
Views: 36313

Re: Join the Wiki!

Can I please permitted to edit wiki? I want to beef up and revise the page "https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_methods" which I feel is seriously out of date. I want to add regroup and add under the categories (a) decision rule methods (constant $, constant %, guyton rules, zolt rules), (b) ...
by jmk
Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 12685

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

If you look at the Research Affiliates optimized portfolios based on expected returns (click the black dotes on their 10y expected returns chart), you'll see they closely resemble the Larry Portfolio: All Emerging and EAFE, little small with no US large growth....
by jmk
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 12685

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

I agree that there is big value to diversifying across factors. Ironically, the importance of this diversification perhaps increases as the time horizon SHORTENS. Over a short time period, we don’t know how any factor will perform, so best to diversify. A point worth noting. And of course it's true...
by jmk
Mon Dec 25, 2017 4:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 5330

Re: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:19 am
=PMT(average(1/PE, Research Affiliates expected returns), years_left, networth, 0, 1) * POWER(networth / target_networth, 1/3)
Can you please explain your formula? I get the first part but not the power part.
by jmk
Fri Dec 22, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable
Replies: 73
Views: 6793

Re: pay down mortgage or invest in taxable

This comes down to risk. Since you're getting nothing in need based financial aid, you'd want to determine if you're ok with upcoming potential market downturns. If you are, then sure....invest in a taxable account. If seeing your account go to half what it is now would turn your stomach or worse, ...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605669

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605669

Simple boostrap: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet

I thought I'd share a spreadsheet to allow folks to do a dirty 40 year 3-year moving bootstrap of the whole simba dataset with some simple results such as cagr, sustained withdrawal rate. You need to download to excel for it to work. Note this is a very primitive spreadsheet, just to get folks think...
by jmk
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1106
Views: 605669

Re: Spreadsheet for backtesting (includes TrevH's data)

I think it would be great if we could cobble together something that represented investing in good, direct CDs, including taking advantage of the early withdrawal options to reinvest at higher rates if justified, but I seriously doubt the data is easily available if available at all. DepositAccount...
by jmk
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lowering My Grocery Bill
Replies: 110
Views: 7875

Re: Lowering My Grocery Bill

The closer you buy to generic items rather than processed the cheaper. For instance, if you buy dry pintos and tortillas and make them in the pressure cooker your burritos will cost much lower than if you buy burritos. Buy cheap cuts of meat like chuck or whole cut up chicken too.
by jmk
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your favorite Costco wines?
Replies: 40
Views: 4409

Re: Your favorite Costco wines?

I'm a foodie but don't find the costco wines worth their $. I sometimes buy cases of Costco Blackstone when it's on sale for $5 a bottle; but I find Trader Joe's $4-6 range wines are a better value for the money. I appreciate good wine--but when trying to achieve the FI savings rates people talk abo...
by jmk
Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?
Replies: 2
Views: 386

Best way to withdraw from Inherited IRA in retirement?

I am about three years from FI at age 57 so am starting to think about different withdrawal strategies. I have a pretty good handle on converting my "traditional" 403bs to Roths during my early retirement in order to eliminate future RMDs. But I'm having trouble getting my head around what to do wit...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 58
Views: 6739

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

We have been conditioned to believe that when approaching and entering retirement, a significant portion of our portfolio should be in bonds. But at least in these scenarios, and within the universe of the historical data used by cFIREsim, the “safety of bonds” seems illusory for an investor that h...
by jmk
Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods
Replies: 28
Views: 2402

Re: Monte Carlo Analysis VS Historical Rolling Periods

Bootstrapping is another alternative to historical returns or Monte Carlo based on statistical parameters. I prefer it, though it suffers its own limitations. Bootstrapping invokes random sampling of the past. In other words, different sequences of the same historical data. One can incorporate cycle...
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations
Replies: 12
Views: 3065

Re: Troublesome and questionable change in I-ORP Social Security Calculations

Just a quick note for those coming to this topic late that the I-ORP author changed things so users may choose to not reduce SS in 2036 with a simple checkbox.
by jmk
Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't
Replies: 127
Views: 15094

Re: How I use I-ORP, and who shouldn't

...Since I retired at 61, if I postponed SS to age 70 to maximize total retirement spending, I'd draw down my 401k by 40% before I got there, OTOH, if I took SS at 62, the drawdown is no more than 10%. Postponing SS to 70 results in about 1% more total spending in retirement (from 61-95), but I did...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 817

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

Let's say you create a bucket with 40% total stock market and 60% total bond (or a tax-exempt bond fund if more appropriate). According to Portfolio Visualizer, since 1987, this would have resulted in a real CAGR of 5.24%, 6.59% standard deviation, and a max drawdown of just slightly less than 20% ...
by jmk
Tue Oct 24, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 817

Re: Portfolio for long-ish term expenses

in 7-10 years we'll need a new roof. At some point, I would like to buy a new car (though mine is running just fine for now). Etc. I'm in same position and I use a separate taxable bucket for anticipated expenses over next 7-10 years: roof, a/c, new car, etc. I have my long term monies spread acros...
by jmk
Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?
Replies: 249
Views: 33971

Re: Does anyone here with net worths north of $1 mil use financial advisors?

The part I'm thinking of using an FA for is optimizing withdrawals from SS / tax sheltered / taxable withdrawals and tax efficiency. Also, monte carlo simulations. I know there's programs out there like I-ORP; but don't the FAs have access to more complex software?
by jmk
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused
Replies: 12
Views: 2128

Re: Hold bonds in taxable or tax-deferred accounts? I am confused

Are there any quantitative resources to support the strategy of bonds -> tax advantaged accounts (or vice versa?)? I found the analysis and spreadsheets at http://www.retailinvestor.org/RRSPmodel.html very helpful in trying to figure out the nuances. I draw your attention especially to "RRSP Decisi...
by jmk
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 97
Views: 21991

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Use the tools bar and look for instant X-ray on the drop down. You should not have to have a free trial for the instant x-ray. You just have to enter your tickers and add how many dollars on each fund. It will give you the complete x-ray after you enter the info. thank you! i was trying to do xray;...
by jmk
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to Google Finance? [Portfolios feature deprecated]
Replies: 97
Views: 21991

Re: Alternative to Google Finance?

Is there any free service that is similar to the Morningstar "portfolio x-ray" feature? The x-ray service at Morningstar has a free mode. You just have to hand enter your portfolio each time to get the X-Ray from one of the drop down categories. If you are tracking a portfolio there, just use the d...