Search found 34 matches

by jcavana1
Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4728

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

Predicting what the market will do in the next 12 months with any degree of certainty is impossible. Not hard, impossible.

They are probably about right with "50/50 chance", but you could say that at any time.
by jcavana1
Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Banking stocks cheap?
Replies: 7
Views: 986

Are Banking stocks cheap?

My question is, why do banking stocks appear cheap relative to the rest of the market using superficial valuation metrics (P/E etc.)? Interest rates have nowhere to go but up, which would bode well for banking stocks, yet in comparison to the rest of the market these stocks are trading at much lower...
by jcavana1
Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme
Replies: 77
Views: 5700

Re: Passive investing is a Ponzi scheme

I found nothing redeemable in her comments. Her thoughts on "Exit Costs" were nonsensical IMO. Not surprisingly RUPAL's funds are are getting slaughtered by the Indexes over their lifetimes and the last 10 years...without factoring in the 1%+ ERs. She may know more finance than me, but her Funds' pe...
by jcavana1
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8768

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

I agree that it is an analogous comparison. No doubt that there are differences in the investment that Berkshire seeks out. But they often do invest in publicly traded companies and the prices that they pay are closely linked to the prices offered on the stock market. Buffett has said that he thinks...
by jcavana1
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8768

Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

[moved this post into the existing thread - moderator prudent] Buffett and Munger are reportedly sitting on $100 billion in cash due to a lack of attractive investing opportunities (their prospective). From the best I can gather the total Market cap for Berkshire is around $500 billion. Boglehead c...
by jcavana1
Thu Aug 17, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance policy on toddler
Replies: 19
Views: 2089

Re: Life insurance policy on toddler

UPDATE: My sister showed me a sample prospectus. From what I can gather, the fund return is tied to the SP 500. For example, if SP 500 return is 10% for 2018, your return on the fund is some percentage (roughly 3%) less. There is a floor of 2% guaranteed return, annually. The paying for college tuit...
by jcavana1
Tue Aug 15, 2017 6:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance policy on toddler
Replies: 19
Views: 2089

Re: Life insurance policy on toddler

Thank you for the replies. The only definite takeaway, even after reading your thoughtful responses, is that these policies are designed to be overly complex. I still can not figure out how to calculate the risk/reward for this policy. Being two years into the policy I think they have sunk about $10...
by jcavana1
Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance policy on toddler
Replies: 19
Views: 2089

Re: Life insurance policy on toddler

I just double checked...The insured is the child. Apparently the plan "guarantees" or can be converted into 180k for educational expenses at the time her turns 18. So they were looking at it as primarily a college savings plan for him. Anyone else with any more knowledge and specifics would be very ...
by jcavana1
Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance policy on toddler
Replies: 19
Views: 2089

Life insurance policy on toddler

My sister and brother-in-law, bought a life insurance policy on their now 3 yo approx 2 years ago. They admittedly don't have a lot of interest in personal finance and investing and asked that I look into the policy after I raised some skepticism. They are not and cannot contribute to a Roth due to ...
by jcavana1
Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap notebook for surfing/watching videos
Replies: 18
Views: 1558

Re: Cheap notebook for surfing/watching videos

+1 for chromebook. I was given an iPad for work and never use it. Further, I cant believe people buy them. IMO, removing the keyboard has absolutely no benefits and is a total pain every time I want to use it. Want to watch something? You have to prop it up. Want to type something? Painfully slow. G...
by jcavana1
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Medical Resident SEP IRA vs. Solo 401k
Replies: 7
Views: 546

Medical Resident SEP IRA vs. Solo 401k

I am a medical resident who just started moonlighting on the side. I will be receiving a 1099 this tax season and understand that I can set up either a SEP IRA or Solo 401k. My moonlighting salary for the year should be around 20k. Which is better the SEP or Solo 401k? Any help would be appreciated....
by jcavana1
Sun Jul 30, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 177
Views: 17078

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

Just my opinion... The stock is incredibly overpriced and risky. I read recently if everything goes according to plan their margins are like 6%. They will sell several hundred thousand cars over the next several years. But at best their profit will be a fraction of GM's. The only way I think you can...
by jcavana1
Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 8550

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Here is the reason that I love google stock going forward....Software. It's all about software. Google, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon have made virtually all of their money because of 1 thing....software. And no one can compete with google on software. I just wonder if Apple and Microsoft...
by jcavana1
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why
Replies: 101
Views: 8550

Re: Tell me a stock you like better than Google/Alphabet Right Now and Why

Here is the reason that I love google stock going forward....Software.

It's all about software. Google, Uber, Lyft, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon have made virtually all of their money because of 1 thing....software.

And no one can compete with google on software.
by jcavana1
Thu Jun 08, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 7621

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

Looking back, I don't think the risk/reward for these stocks has ever been good enough for me to invest. Obviously, I wish I had. But Tesla has still never made money. Their CEO came out recently saying the stock is overpriced. Amazon and Netflix make a tiny amount of profit relative to market cap. ...
by jcavana1
Tue Jun 06, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm considering buying a house in the $800k range.. can I?
Replies: 67
Views: 6869

Re: I'm considering buying a house in the $800k range.. can I?

You can absolutely afford it. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. But...of course there is a tradeoff (a significant portion of your money is ties down in this illiquid investment). It's up to you to decide whether the tradeoff is worth it. FWIW, It is a great time to be buying a home. Stock market...
by jcavana1
Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New laptop needed, any ideas?
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: New laptop needed, any ideas?

My 7 y/o HP is going downhill and I'm in the market for a quality new one. I've been looking at a Lenovo thinkpad so far from reviews I've read. I guess I'm a typical user and just need something for data/files storage, streaming/surfing the web, and microsoft office applications. I'm wanting to ke...
by jcavana1
Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New laptop needed, any ideas?
Replies: 24
Views: 1839

Re: New laptop needed, any ideas?

My 7 y/o HP is going downhill and I'm in the market for a quality new one. I've been looking at a Lenovo thinkpad so far from reviews I've read. I guess I'm a typical user and just need something for data/files storage, streaming/surfing the web, and microsoft office applications. I'm wanting to ke...
by jcavana1
Thu May 25, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8780

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

[quote="frankmorris"]Reading through Random Walk Down Wall Street, and trying really hard to see what bubble we're in right now, if we're in one. One comment theme amongst bubbles is that some new fad (business model, technology, etc.) causes people to not see that the business models thos...
by jcavana1
Sat May 20, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 6790

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

I was in your situation last year, relatively new to investing and feeling like I could time the market. To make a long story short, I got lucky and timed the Brexit tank just about perfectly. I was honest with myself and realized that it was just luck. I had no idea Brexit was going to happen or th...
by jcavana1
Fri May 19, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am a huge believer in Passive Indexing.. but.....
Replies: 42
Views: 3667

Re: I am a huge believer in Passive Indexing.. but.....

It is a phenomena due to their size, which they have been vocal about for many years, that returns will start going down and it will be harder to beat the benchmark. But even beating the benchmarks after all taxes/costs by 1-2% per year is significant in the long run.[/quote] I read a quote from Buf...
by jcavana1
Sun May 14, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Switch from iPhone to Google Fi and Pixel?
Replies: 37
Views: 4182

Re: Switxh from iPhone to Google Fi and Pixel?

I've had my iPhone 6+ since Dec 3, 2014 and I paid over $900 for it including tax (the < $1/day for it will be near the end of next month). I'm not a Mac guy, per se, I believe in using the right tools for the right jobs, and I do have a ~3.5-year old 15-inch MacBook pro that has served me well. So...
by jcavana1
Thu May 11, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach shorts S&P 500, says passive investing is a 'myth'
Replies: 51
Views: 6681

Re: Gundlach shorts S&P 500, says passive investing is a 'myth'

selftalk wrote:John Bogle doesn`t know anyone who can consistently BEAT THE MARKET. In fact he said that he doesn`t know anyone that knows anyone that consistanly beats the market.


Buffett??
by jcavana1
Sun May 07, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Annuities - Pros -vs- Cons
Replies: 28
Views: 2740

Re: Fixed Annuities - Pros -vs- Cons

Warning warning warning! "Fixed annuity" is not the complete name of the product, and there are two quite different products with names that sound like this. 1) So-called "Fixed indexed annuities" which are very bad, not recommended by anyone I know except people who sell them, ...
by jcavana1
Sun May 07, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Annuities - Pros -vs- Cons
Replies: 28
Views: 2740

Re: Fixed Annuities - Pros -vs- Cons

I have a fixed annuity my parents bought me to the tune of $5k shortly after i was born, so about 37 years ago. I don't really understand what their thinking was, and they don't remember either. At various times over the years I've been tempted to just liquidate it and consolidate the proceeds into...
by jcavana1
Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about dividends paid out by mutual funds
Replies: 3
Views: 479

Question about dividends paid out by mutual funds

When owning a single stock the dividend eligible and payout dates are clearly defined and the stock is marked down on the payout date (I believe). How does this process work with funds that payout dividends annually? What is to stop someone from purchasing the fund immediately before the dividend is...
by jcavana1
Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone else decided not to finish med school?
Replies: 55
Views: 7219

Re: Anyone else decided not to finish med school?

As a medical resident in my 8th year of post college training and with two years to go, if he wasn't sure about it that early then i really think he made the right decision. It gets harder and more difficult to be enthusiastic every year.

No shame in trying to be happy.
by jcavana1
Fri Apr 07, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3311

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

My issue with preferred stocks is that the massive and well documented recent investor preference for yield has made anything with a high yield a crowded investment. Also look at a chart of PFF during the market crash. Prefeereds went from $47 to $19. That is NOT a suitable replacement for bonds in...
by jcavana1
Tue Apr 04, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3311

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

My issue with preferred stocks is that the massive and well documented recent investor preference for yield has made anything with a high yield a crowded investment. Also look at a chart of PFF during the market crash. Prefeereds went from $47 to $19. That is NOT a suitable replacement for bonds in...
by jcavana1
Sat Apr 01, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3311

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

I would be using money from my bond allocation. I understand that rising rates would negatively affect the cost of the preferred shares, as they would for bonds. However, I expect to hold these for decades and dont worry about short term rates.
by jcavana1
Sat Apr 01, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3311

Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

I have read Larry's thorough piece on the risk of preferred stock: m But am still having trouble assessing risk relating specifically NON-CALLABLE preferred stock. Assuming that I believe 1) Wells Fargo will not go bankrupt for the next 30+ years, 2) Intermediate and long term bond and treasury yiel...
by jcavana1
Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chase Sapphire Reserve: Too good to be (completely) true
Replies: 186
Views: 30948

Re: Chase Sapphire Reserve: Too good to be (completely) true

If you were to only count spending on the 3x categories, you'd have to spend $3333 per year to cover $150 annual fee (subtracting $300 travel credit). Compare this to the Chase Sapphire Preferred with an annual fee of $95 and 2x points on dining and travel, you'd have to spend $3800 on these catego...
by jcavana1
Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got Chase sapphire reserve credit card. Can I close C S preferred
Replies: 16
Views: 2405

Re: Got Chase sapphire reserve credit card. Can I close C S preferred

Not my website but CreditCardpeDiem has a good CSR synopsis
by jcavana1
Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting started with Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 433

Getting started with Investing

I am 25 yo female who recently started saving for retirement. I am currently sitting on approximately 25k in a money market account and am a little apprenhensive about whether or not to invest in the market and bonds, CD or keep a large portion of it in my current account. I hesitate to invest becau...