Search found 3252 matches

by jalbert
Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Heresy: Is It Worth Converting tIRAs to Roth?
Replies: 41
Views: 3495

Re: Heresy: Is It Worth Converting tIRAs to Roth?

I would not convert it. If you ever require long-term care or have large medical expenses, you may be able to withdraw and spend the assets tax-free. Converting now gives up that option without much compensating benefit. Just contribute the funds you would have used to pay the tax on conversions to ...
by jalbert
Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

Just because VTMSX (Vanguard Tax-Managed Small-Cap Fund Admiral Shares) has "tax-managed" in its name shouldn't make it feel wrong to place VTMSX in a tax-deferred or tax-advantaged account.  For example, VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares) is often used in 401ks and Roth ...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 1226

Re: The other side of stock buybacks

But the alternative is to put myself in an Enron situation. Saw that movie, didn’t like it. Smart CEOs are making the same decision. Possibly. The article suggested that CEO selling had increased. And if companies are doing buybacks to enable CEOs to exercise stock options favorably, or to increase...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand TIPs.
Replies: 23
Views: 1645

Re: Help me understand TIPs.

The argument in favor of TIPS, particularly for those in or near retirement is that inflation is a significant risk and you are at a life stage where you may not have an option to work longer to compensate if the inflation rate increases beyond expectations. The argument against TIPS is that the Fed...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand TIPs.
Replies: 23
Views: 1645

Re: Help me understand TIPs.

I have a hard time recommending TIPS. Risk and return are linked and this is one of the safest investments out there. The only case where they would beat normal treasuries are in a situation where inflation increased unexpectedly. That is true in a general sense, but it can be made more specific to...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

Small cap stocks in general tend to have a positive loading on value, so even a "small blend" fund (like VTMSX or IJR) will have a value tilt relative to a large cap blend fund, It appears the profitable screen for the SP600 is a significant driver of this effect. I don't think so: the core Russell...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement
Replies: 46
Views: 3818

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement

IP addresses in packet headers can be forged, and other machine “fingerprints” are easily simulated. This is not a good strategy. How exactly do you propose forging a TLS connection? If they allow fallback to an unencrypted login that's one thing, but requiring a secure connection and a secure cook...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

Small cap stocks in general tend to have a positive loading on value, so even a "small blend" fund (like VTMSX or IJR) will have a value tilt relative to a large cap blend fund, It appears the profitable screen for the SP600 is a significant driver of this effect. I don't think so: the core Russell...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement
Replies: 46
Views: 3818

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement

Not too bad with VG. Just tell it to only do the 2FA for computers it doesn't recognize. I set it up months ago and once the initial 2FA was accomplished VG hasn't asked for it again. (and I look at my account frequently, too) IP addresses in packet headers can be forged, and other machine “fingerp...
by jalbert
Wed Jul 18, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The other side of stock buybacks
Replies: 11
Views: 1226

The other side of stock buybacks

CEOs are shoveling cash at stock buybacks while simultaneously selling their own shares.

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/17/invest ... index.html
by jalbert
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement
Replies: 46
Views: 3818

Re: New Vanguard Security Code Requirement

Just got a notification that Vanguard is implementing mandatory 2 factor authentication procedures. I've worked in IT security and absolutely hate this feature. It's an overly burdensome solution to a problem easily mitigated with sufficiently-designed password parameters (read >12 characters with ...
by jalbert
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

Small cap stocks in general tend to have a positive loading on value, so even a "small blend" fund (like VTMSX or IJR) will have a value tilt relative to a large cap blend fund,
It appears the profitability screen for the SP600 is a significant driver of this effect.
by jalbert
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1832

Re: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing

In a taxable account the interest and principal correction from inflation for I-bonds and TIPS is state-tax-free. If you hold individual TIPS you will have to pay Federal tax on the interest and principal correction of each bond annually, but you only will receive any principal correction when you s...
by jalbert
Tue Jul 17, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?
Replies: 16
Views: 1502

Re: Why is my bond fund going up with interest rates?

I am invested in municipal bond fund fmotx. In the last few months the Fed has raised interest rates, yet the bond fund is on a slow increase in value. I am prepared for bond funds to drop for a while, and have delayed investing more capital for this reason. I know some of the bonds are corporate, ...
by jalbert
Tue Jul 17, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing
Replies: 22
Views: 1832

Re: Thoughts on using an ETF for TIPS investing

Greetings - Currently, the "fixed income position" in my portfolio consists of money market accounts. I'm tempted to leave it there now that interest rates are on the rise but also feel there are other options which would provide better returns which also have low risk. Define what you mean by risk...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone experienced landlords here? Caught some of my tenants renting out rooms. Anything I should do?
Replies: 33
Views: 5799

Re: Anyone experienced landlords here? Caught some of my tenants renting out rooms. Anything I should do?

I'd also be uncomfortable with this personally and would want additional compensation for the risk/wear. I'd also want to approve of the subs. Forgetting your comfort, I would want some extra security deposit on the subs. I think you can reasonably expect more maintenance with more people. Check yo...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?
Replies: 38
Views: 3901

Re: Is Tax-Managed Small Cap (VTMSX) an underrated fund?

A factor regression analysis shows an annualized alpha of 1%. It also, amazingly, has a 0.39 HmL Value load, which is as valuey as most value funds This more shows the lack of statistical significance and generalizability of factor regressions run on non-random, biased samples than it illuminates m...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vtip short term tip etf ??
Replies: 11
Views: 527

Re: Vtip short term tip etf ??

Our broker. Bbt. Also, doesn't trade vanguard mutual funds. Any other mutual funds out there on "open" market that deals with short term tips ? If we don't want commission ? Most are not competitive on ER. Fidelity may have a low cost TIPS index mutual fund. If it is not practical to open an accoun...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

You can try different historical periods to come to whatever conclusion you want. I believe that for low equity allocations, a shorter duration is preferred due to the inflation risk of IT treasuries. I believe that at high equity allocations, IT treasuries and equities have historically shown enoug...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

That is not what a Monte Carlo simulation is. It assumes a probability distribution and uses a random number generator and the distribution to generate a time series of simulated outcomes. Drawing randomly from a list of values is equivalent to assuming that that list of values represents the proba...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

If you do want to use historical data, we can calculate the historical efficient frontier using portfoliovisuslizer going back to 1977 (the limit of the data) for a high equity allocation and either ST or IT treasuries. Setting the min for stocks at 79% and max for stocks at 80% but leaving ST and I...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

That is not what a Monte Carlo simulation is. It assumes a probability distribution and uses a random number generator and the distribution to generate a time series of simulated outcomes. The value Monte Carlo simulations is limited for investment outcome simulations because we don’t actually know ...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?
Replies: 66
Views: 2865

Re: Have you ever purchased a pricy musical instrument?

Upgrade an instrument when the one you have is neither responsive enough nor capable of producing the sound or tone you are aiming for. You should be able to articulate the limitations of the current instrument clearly. If you upgrade before that happens you may find that you instead run into the sa...
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Well the yield curve has flattened in recent weeks. I don’t jump from IT to ST or ST to IT with every short-term move in rates on the yield curve. If you are a long-term investor, intermediate treasuries have delivered a premium over short-term treasuries.
by jalbert
Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vtip short term tip etf ??
Replies: 11
Views: 527

Re: Vtip short term tip etf ??

It’s an excellent fund, and an appropriate diversifier for a CD ladder. Ishares STIP would be the main competitor. If your mom would be making regular withdrawals from the fund, a mutual fund is preferable to an ETF since there won’t be a bid-ask spread to worry about, assuming you have commission-f...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those of you who handle all the finances, how do you keep your spouse "in the know"
Replies: 107
Views: 12562

Re: For those of you who handle all the finances, how do you keep your spouse "in the know"

Keep all the account logons in Keepass, and share the Keepass database. In your case, I guess you could keep your email logon out of the Keepass database. I don't know what you would do for 2 factor authentication... Keep the passwords in password safes but spouse needs separate logins for all of t...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!
Replies: 6
Views: 434

Re: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!

I invested in the Vanguard Growth Index Fund Investor Shares, Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares. not sure if that changes your answer, but thanks for the advice. Don't assume the recent...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!
Replies: 6
Views: 434

Re: New To Being A Boglehead- Need Help With Last Index Fund!!

Hi everyone, I am new to investing, but have picked up a few tips along the way. I have already invested 70 of my 85 k in invest funds with vanguard and would like advice on my last 15k. I want to be very aggressive and have come down to 2 choices- 1) Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund Admi...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

I have a question: How do we know that the LT treasury market is driven by insurance companies and pension funds? ... I mean... it makes intuitive sense that pensions and annuities would be especially interested in LT treasuries, but do we have any data about who is buying them? I found an article ...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What term premium? The current yield curve is very flat for intermediate-term maturities, both nominal and real. It could be argued that the term premium actually is negative... I would gladly hold a bond allocation that is 75% IT treasuries and 25% ST TIPS today before I would hold one that is 100...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1206

Re: Flat real yield curve

Yes, the Fed model is that real rates are driven by the supply and demand for bonds. Economists talk about savings vs investment as opaque language for demand for bonds vs demand for growth investments, and note the high savings rate, which is codespeak for high demand for bonds.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

If your concern with IT treasuries is inflation, diversify them with TIPS and you can earn the term premium of intermediate bonds while taking less inflation risk than if just holding ST treasuries.

The main benefit of ST treasuries is liquidity.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 2124

Re: Thoughts on Switching to Target Retirement Funds

If you won’t be working, I’m not sure a glide path is appropriate. You might move the LifeStrategy fund in taxable space to the stock index funds if the taxes are manageable, and move everything else to LifeStrategy Moderate Allocation. One concern is if you won’t be working, you may be dealing with...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Paul Volcker demonstrated the tools the Fed has to fight inflation. It is unlikely an increase in inflation would be managed by the Fed like it was in the 1970’s.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1206

Flat real yield curve

VAIPX intermediate TIPS, duration is 7.6 years.
SEC (real) yield is 0.61%.

VTAPX short-term TIPS, duration is 2.7 years.
SEC (real) yield is 0.57%.

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall.
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Logging out 20 acre lot?
Replies: 37
Views: 2461

Re: Logging out 20 acre lot?

So since it's worth less than the mortgage balance, see if you can just hand the keys over to the mortgage holder and walk away. Might want to talk to a lawyer about that considering everything involved including the trust and property taxes, etc. Seems like the easiest and perhaps most financially...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Good graphic. Clearly shows the value of longer-term during a market crash. That said, most people do not advocate LT treasuries as their bond allocation, despite their superior performance during a crash. Do you agree with that advice? Some people advocate for it for portfolios with high equity al...
by jalbert
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7380

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

As to currency risk, don't forget it goes both ways... That is a specious argument actually. By definition any risk can go both ways. A "risk" that could not cut both ways is called a liability, not a risk. The question is whether the risk either is rewarded or diversifies other risks. The long-ter...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

You can examine the last 3 bear markets. They started in Oct 1987, March 2000, and October 2007 if you take the prior market peak as starting point of the downturn. In all three, intermediate treasuries helped you more than short-term treasuries. Short-term treasuries are not a bad choice for a bond...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

danielc wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:58 pm
jalbert wrote:
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:41 pm
What probability distributions for future returns are being used to generate simulated data in the Monte Carlo simulations?
Historical values. PV's dataset seems to begin in 1972.
That is not a Monte Carlo simulation.
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 95
Views: 5235

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What probability distributions for future returns are being used to generate simulated data in the Monte Carlo simulations?
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3679

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

2) I have a BSEE and MSEE when I started working as the Unix System Administrator. So, even though I do not know the operating system, I know A) Microprocessor Design and Assembly Languages B) Digital Logic Design C) Transistor Design D) Computer network I could say that my foundation is more solid...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 171
Views: 10669

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

Most stocks are for companies that already are levered (issuing corporate bonds or taking on other business loans).
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement
Replies: 81
Views: 5146

Re: Would you trade experiences in your youth for early retirement

Anyone who figures out that richness of life experience does not have to equate with high cost may be able to have both.
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8874

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

Ohmigosh, THANK YOU jebmke and TimeLord!! Reading through this thread, I was starting to wonder if I had maybe "missed the memo" that I was "supposed" to be keeping these spreadsheets, with assumed rates of return, etc. all these years.  You only need that if you are targeting a particular or appro...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3679

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

1) I disagreed. I was a Unix System Administrator for a large oil company. I never took any course in the operating system. I read all the books on Unix System Administration in order to do my job. Not every self-trained system administrator develops their skills to the level that you did. jalbert,...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Be Careful Using Mailboxes
Replies: 58
Views: 7164

Re: Be Careful Using Mailboxes

Anytime you pay someone by paper check you risk the check being deposited by phone camera or scan and the paper check not being shredded for disposal when done. Who knows where it will end up? I always use a bank account online billpay (if a check, it won't have my acct#) or credit card if possible ...
by jalbert
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3679

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

1) I disagreed. I was a Unix System Administrator for a large oil company. I never took any course in the operating system. I read all the books on Unix System Administration in order to do my job.
Not every self-trained system administrator develops their skills to the level that you did.
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on IT Certification program
Replies: 93
Views: 3679

Re: Advice on IT Certification program

It is a limited level of training. For instance, there are limitations to the benefits of a course on Linux administration for someone who has not studied the fundamental principles of operating systems. It would be like taking a course on introduction to surgery without the fundamental science educ...
by jalbert
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks
Replies: 33
Views: 1860

Re: Question for pre-ACA Early Retirees and pre-ACA solo folks

I know of no ACA compatible insurance where the out of pocket max is more than about $7.5K/person. I've seen some plans with aggregate family oop-max that is 2x individual oop-max, but the plan only recognizes a family oop-max for an individual who is enrolled as part of a married couple or family....