Search found 3385 matches

by iceport
Sun Jan 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting LATE for retirement
Replies: 31
Views: 2159

Re: Starting LATE for retirement

Do bonds go down when stock market is up? Allan Roth came up with a great graphic showing the expected 95% confidence range of returns for stocks and bonds over the next year in a recent article . Mostly, bonds go down when interest rates go up. The image represents the expected range for a high qu...
by iceport
Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition
Replies: 9
Views: 940

Re: Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool apparently has no idea whatsoever about sector or cap-weight breakdown in VTIAX. I assume that means that the the sector breakdown they show for my whole portfolio is silently omitting VTIAX without warning me about it. As aggravating as it is, there's absolutely ...
by iceport
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corrections and Bears since 1900
Replies: 3
Views: 410

Re: Corrections and Bears since 1900

If you want to be a Boglehead (efficient investor) you have to have the right AA and hold for years/decades. I don't necessarily agree with the article on what you should do and when. Interesting glance back at some historical data. But I agree with you on both points above. Items 5 through 8 are b...
by iceport
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 71
Views: 3187

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

Thanks a lot for your expert input. (and help with the "screen grab" for Morningstar. I'm trying to follow "old school" Jack Bogle. Thus very little international equities and no international bonds. Focus on "core". Is that correct? Sounds right, "own the market." BTW, I'm no expert. But one of th...
by iceport
Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax investment suggestions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2542

Re: After tax investment suggestions...

Why do you prefer Vg MF over ETF? If I may be so presumptuous to add to Taylor's fine list: Six reasons: 1. I can buy with fractional shares (dollars). 2. No premium or discount--all transactions are at net asset value. 3. No spreads between bid and ask price. 4. Less cash drag because dividends ar...
by iceport
Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 71
Views: 3187

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

M* uses a different size scale for international. Yes, I noticed that long ago. Everything's relative. Input and suggestions welcome. Very conservative: low equity and international allocations, large cap tilt. Nothing wrong with that — at all. Just an observation. Carry on, stay the course. (See s...
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 71
Views: 3187

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

The invitation got me curious...

Image

First year of retirement. The cash position, a stable value fund now yielding 2.84%, reduces interest rate sensitivity on the bond side drastically and could fund several years of withdrawals in the event of a severe crash.
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 360
Views: 57751

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

My lesson was to pay attention. I started seeing the trouble in early 2008. And I got out of many of my positions. The trouble was deciding when to get back in. I only dipped my toes in, in March 2009. But was pretty tentative over the next couple of years. These days I'm fully invested, but I have...
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Replies: 360
Views: 57751

Re: What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?

Gekko wrote:
Fri Nov 21, 2008 10:21 pm
What's your one big takeaway from the Crash of 2008?
Part A: Buy, Hold & Rebalance investing really works.

Part B: Buying equities at severely depressed prices during a market crash, due to rebalancing and/or maintaining target allocations, can dramatically improve portfolio performance.
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch Evaluation -- Help Needed.
Replies: 14
Views: 781

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch Evaluation -- Help Needed.

^Once again, Vanguard Port Watch completely ignores international funds and stocks when it reports on value tilts, so one will get zero info about such tilts for one's international holdings and those holdings will have no influence about the reported tilts of US holdings. This is stated right ther...
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch Evaluation -- Help Needed.
Replies: 14
Views: 781

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch Evaluation -- Help Needed.

In general, Vanguard compares investors' portfolios to a cap-weighted market allocation. Cautionary notes are made when they find any tilts away from the cap-weighted market. The notes become more strongly worded as the tilts become more severe. For some measures — most notably the allocation to int...
by iceport
Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax investment suggestions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2542

Re: After tax investment suggestions...

I have a roth IRA through Vanguard Target date retirement fund. They put a few hundred dollars into a Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund (Settlement fund). Apparently this money was from dividends. They told me i can keep the money in the money market fund or reinvest it. If i were to cash this out...
by iceport
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?
Replies: 121
Views: 7152

Re: $399 - New Course - Fire your Financial Advisor - By WhiteCoat Investor - Anyone?

"A strange game. The only winning move is not to play. How about a nice game of chess?" --AI in WarGames (1983) :D I want to emphasize that our wiki is very much not 'paid'. It is a volunteer effort and all information is provided freely (gratis). The same goes for all assistance on the forum. And ...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7640

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. ... What is amazing about a volat...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7640

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. ... What is amazing about a volat...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 81
Views: 7640

Re: 70% chance of correction according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

Ah, but it's possible the 10% correction could start 20% higher than where we are now. :wink: And if it were to happen tomorrow, a 10% correction in the US market would only take us back to the beginning of October 2017, a little over 3 months ago. Amazing, really. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?
Replies: 22
Views: 1531

Re: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?

Can the decision be influenced by market valuation? I know future is uncertain, but has there been any study on whether DCA works better than lump sum if the valuation the asset class is higher compared to historical levels? And lump sum works better if the valuation is lesser than historical avera...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Let's hear (or see) your budget tools
Replies: 12
Views: 1105

Re: Let's hear (or see) your budget tools

I did something very close to your method(s), though I didn't distinguish between committed and non-committed items in my spreadsheet. I just did my best to account for non-discretionary and reasonable discretionary spending, and the rest went into retirement savings accounts and a "sinking fund" sa...
by iceport
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A question that keeps coming to my head
Replies: 13
Views: 1107

Re: A question that keeps coming to my head

What does "Special Opportunities" mean? Is that just code for "active management?" And if so, does that negate the long term investor assumption?
by iceport
Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?
Replies: 22
Views: 1531

Re: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?

I don't even know if there's more than a handful of rolling 12 month DCA period(s) that would have worked out over investing the lump sum up front over the last 6 years . Right. But this bull market will end. It's just a matter of time... And if the bull market ends the day after your DCA period en...
by iceport
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?
Replies: 22
Views: 1531

Re: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 3:42 pm
I don't even know if there's more than a handful of rolling 12 month DCA period(s) that would have worked out over investing the lump sum up front over the last 6 years.
Right. But this bull market will end. It's just a matter of time...
by iceport
Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?
Replies: 22
Views: 1531

Re: Is lump sum or dollar cost averaging more in line with boglehead values?

Most of the recommendations I see here about investing large sums is to just do it as a lump sum. The reason given is that on average the market goes up so the odds favor investing all immediately. While this is true it seems like one is taking higher risk in this scenario. On the other side dollar...
by iceport
Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)
Replies: 12
Views: 1261

Re: madsinger monthly report (December 2017)

Thanks Brad. It's still striking how comparable the returns are across the range of equity allocations (100% to 40%) for the 10- and 20 19-year periods. It will be interesting to see how that changes for the 10-year returns as the 2008/2009 crash drops out of view. For comparison, my own returns are...
by iceport
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”
Replies: 20
Views: 1677

Re: “Future US Equity Returns: A Best-Case Upper Limit”

The 2nd figure shows that pension fund allocation to equities has been high since 1998, yet we had two great crashes after 1998. These are not incongruous in the context of the post, from my reading. There is not an attempt to explain pension fund asset allocation as the driver of multiple expansio...
by iceport
Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT or No REIT
Replies: 85
Views: 7753

Re: REIT or No REIT

Another 52-week low for VNQ was reached today. Bottom is not in my sights. My US REIT allocation is ~10% below its target, but the re-balancing band is 20% in either direction. Meanwhile, international real estate is ~5% above its target. Over the 52-week period, VNQI has diverged markedly from US ...
by iceport
Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and inflation - newbie question
Replies: 4
Views: 281

Re: SWR and inflation - newbie question

1) It was never suggested that anybody literally do this . It was done mostly to explore the issue of what was safe. I suppose it's debatable just how literally the original authors intended the study's findings to be used. However, in my experience here on this forum and reading various books and ...
by iceport
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR and inflation - newbie question
Replies: 4
Views: 281

Re: SWR and inflation - newbie question

How is inflation accounted for when actually withdrawing money, should I increase the 4% yearly to account for inflation? Thank you! Yes, that's what the analysis was based upon. Inflation data is available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as explained here: Inflation and retirement spendi...
by iceport
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K
Replies: 51
Views: 3638

Re: Lower tax rates for 7 yrs.-Are you switching to Roth 401K

I think the recent tax change strengthens the argument for not using a Roth 401k. People continuously say tax rates are going up in the future so use the Roth 401k. Guess what, they just went down. I'd suspect maybe reversion to the mean, then (ie. they'll go up). But yeah, nobody can predict the f...
by iceport
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: tax consequences of converting Vanguard MFs to ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 696

Re: tax consequences of converting Vanguard MFs to ETFs

This seems to be a "Don't just do something, stand there" scenario. For buy/hold investors, the mutual fund versions work great. No reason to switch. Right. And as indexfundfan noted, conversion from a Vanguard mutual fund to its ETF twin is a choice that cannot be undone without realizing any capi...
by iceport
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax diversification - Roth 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 289

Re: Tax diversification - Roth 401k?

OP, Just say no to Roth 401K. In order for your tax-deferred account to generate 24% marginal tax rate, it needs to generate about 84K of income. That means it needs to be 25 X 84K = 2.1 million. You are not anywhere close to this number yet. KlangFool KlangFool, You are assuming that the tax laws ...
by iceport
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with what to do with drafty fireplace
Replies: 26
Views: 1322

Re: Help with what to do with drafty fireplace

Which option do you think makes more sense to pursue? I went with Option 3, for the less ambitious cheapskate. I just took some very heavy weight cardboard and cut it to fit snugly below the cast iron flue damper. Then I fitted one side with some Reflectix insulation (like foil-faced bubble-wrap), ...
by iceport
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: cFIREsim and FIRECalc - help me understand results
Replies: 6
Views: 800

Re: cFIREsim and FIRECalc - help me understand results

I think one usually says that such results ARE adjusted for inflation when they are called today's dollars. That is to say the reported values would be reduced from nominal dollars by an inflation factor to correctly report the expected buying power of the assets. This is what should be reported, o...
by iceport
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4270

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

iceport, I am asking a very simple question in order to further my understanding. What is a bad sequence of returns for 5 years before and after retirement? Is it A) Bear market (sequence of 5 years of bad returns) before retirement and bull market at retirement (sequence of 5 years of good returns...
by iceport
Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4270

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

Let's assume the followings, AA of 60/40 and a portfolio of 1.5m with 60K annual expense. Let's assume that it is at the age of 57 and this person is planned to retire at 62 years old. So, this person is 5 years from retirement. What is a bad sequence of return for this person? A) Bear market befor...
by iceport
Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax investment suggestions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2542

Re: After tax investment suggestions...

Are capital gains taxed every year they are held, or do you only pay taxes on capital gains when you withdraw the money? Capital gains are only taxed when the shares are sold, i.e. when they are "realized." As a personal example, I completed a round-trip tax-loss harvest of a total stock market ind...
by iceport
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 353
Views: 32945

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Interesting analysis, willthrill81. Here's another interesting tidbit. Over this period, with the starting portfolio in the OP, whether the retiree rebalanced their portfolio or not made a sizable difference. With annual rebalancing: $982,518 (nominal) Without rebalancing: $831,923 (nominal) Over th...
by iceport
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax investment suggestions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2542

Re: After tax investment suggestions...

dodgersummer wrote:
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:13 pm
How does harvest the loss work?
A good overview is provided here: Tax loss harvesting
by iceport
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only asset class offering a discount
Replies: 8
Views: 902

Re: The only asset class offering a discount

What are bo o gleheads thinking.? I've noticed the asset subclass dropping, while my international real estate fund has steadily risen. I'm not sure if US REITs are offering a discount or not. Their valuation is still far higher than (nearly double) that of international real estate, at least by th...
by iceport
Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax investment suggestions...
Replies: 28
Views: 2542

Re: After tax investment suggestions...

Is SPY a good after tax investment? How much would taxes cost if you sold the two recommended index funds after a year vs. Selling after 5 years? SPY is okay. It's an S&P 500 index fund, so it's not as broad as a "total market" fund (SPTM is an example), but it's still a good taxable holding. Taxes...
by iceport
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Talks Bubbles - 1/3/18
Replies: 16
Views: 1692

Re: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Memo 1/3/08

This is the testing time for the BH philosophy. Just as in 2009 it made one buy stocks when all instincts were against it, in 2018 it makes one sell stocks when everyone is screaming "buy, buy, buy". It could easily run another 20-50%. The momentum stocks will be the high flyers (Grantham talks abo...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 7304

Re: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?

What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement? I have a static 56/44 AA, with about 4 years' worth of 4% withdrawals covered by a stable value fund yielding close to 3% now. Would you be willing to share the fund name and ticker? We're still 8 years away, and we're begin...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)
Replies: 15
Views: 1666

Re: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)

Does anyone know how long the window period is for downloading the H&R Block software if purchased on sale at Amazon today?
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)
Replies: 15
Views: 1666

Re: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)

If I have simple Schedule C items, some income from consulting, deduction for ACA premiums coverage when I didn't have employer coverage, can I use the Deluxe rather than Premium? Other than "advanced Schedule C guidance", they seem identical for my needs. Thanks! I don't know the answer, tenkuky ,...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?
Replies: 117
Views: 7304

Re: What strategy do you use to reduce sequence of returns risk in retirement?

I don't find the bucket strategy debates helpful. On some level, isn't the allocation of a portfolio to "equities" and "fixed income" some version of a two-bucket approach?
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)
Replies: 15
Views: 1666

Re: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)

FYI - though the state return is included, there is a charge to e-file through H&R block on the state return. Interesting. We don't e-file so I've never noticed that. It is a great deal on the software, though. It seems this deal is offered at least once/year, and I've been waiting for this. We do ...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24742

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

How are other older investors like me reacting to this? Am I alone in how I feel about this? I don't notice anything different than the last eight years. I went from 70/30 to 56/44 over that period, and that feat was accomplished primarily with "dribble rebalancing with new money" only as MnD put i...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6194

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

^^^Wow, those are some big percentages, even for longer periods. Thanks Robert T. I'm not a factor investor (well, a minor small cap tilt), but the core message — even minus the multi-factor diversification — applies to all investors: The lesson I’ve taken from this knowledge is that investment disc...
by iceport
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)
Replies: 15
Views: 1666

PSA: H&R Block Deal of the Day on Amazon (1/4)

For the next 23 hours or so, H&R Block tax software is on sale at Amazon today. https://www.amazon.com/s/browse/ref=br_msw_pdt-2?_encoding=UTF8&node=17450869011&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=&pf_rd_r=ZV48HF3VQNWEYT09N44M&pf_rd_t=36701&pf_rd_p=02eaedce-d2c0-4ca9-a870-598fd9d83a1d&p...
by iceport
Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can PMI be eliminated without refinancing?
Replies: 6
Views: 706

Re: Can PMI be eliminated without refinancing?

Other than refinancing, what I've learned so far is that 1. if the house has appreciated so that the equity now reduces the loan balance to 78% - 80% of the original value, PMI can be dropped. 2. Prepay on the loan with additional monthly payments. Any other suggestions? Thank you in advance. As ot...