Search found 2923 matches

by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 24
Views: 2673

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

LTC is such an expensive proposition, I just don't know what the solution to the incredible cost might be.
Medical tourism, take me there then leave me there.
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification
Replies: 18
Views: 3003

Re: Jeremy Siegel's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 diversification

1/N suits me. Others should do whatever suits them.
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation
Replies: 42
Views: 3636

Re: Another Warren Buffett S&P 500 Recommendation

Years ago, Buffett said his widow would get his cash holdings, when all of his shares of BRK stock went to the Gates Foundation. I've forgotten the single digit % that was mentioned as his cash, but when it was multiplied times a then recently published Forbes magazine number for his wealth, it was ...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market
Replies: 16
Views: 2144

Re: An Article Claiming Vanguard Will Be Responsible For The Next Bear Market

The click-bait title and the immediate ad to enter the site are indicative. Here are the concluding lines (color added by me): There are far better opportunities out there than what the S&P 500 offers. Even in the S&P 500, there are stocks that are cheaper and will probably outperform the index in t...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge To The 3 Fund Portfolio...The 2 Fund Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 2519

Re: A Challenge To The 3 Fund Portfolio...The 2 Fund Portfolio

Long ago, when a computer filled an air conditioned room, an economist, perhaps Paul Samuelson, looked for the highest performing portfolio. It was either 93/7 or 87/13 stocks to bonds, rebalanced. (I can't remember which.) The rebalancing outperformed 100% stock portfolios due to buying more stock ...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have 3 different investment horizons when planning for retirement?
Replies: 30
Views: 1939

Re: Do I have 3 different investment horizons when planning for retirement?

Our delayed SS was both our long term inflation buffer for our initial retirement spending, and our portfolio insurance for sequence risk conditions, knowing that sequence risk is only from very high inflation in the first decade of retirement. Those are related, but one is on maintaining our spendi...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new thinking under 2018 tax law?
Replies: 11
Views: 1512

Re: new thinking under 2018 tax law?

new thinking?
Having retired in a low cost area, my numbers are so small that my effective tax rate is acceptable.
by heyyou
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nomadic lifestyle in their 50s
Replies: 65
Views: 5673

Re: Nomadic lifestyle in their 50s

For those drooling about the pictured van, check on the maintenance costs first. The Dodge Sprinter vans with the Benz diesel engines have $300+ oil changes due to the Mercedes parts.
by heyyou
Mon Apr 23, 2018 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bonner: what's your take?
Replies: 38
Views: 3320

Re: Bill Bonner: what's your take?

Bill Bonner: what's your take? Bill Bonner is not going to share his wealth with you, so you need to invest for your future that will include stock market crashes between long periods of slow stock market growth. Many here are moderately wealthy from steadily buying stock mutual fund shares during ...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 258
Views: 24574

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Perhaps we have wandered past a milestone, since we no longer seem to care about our asset level. Could be experience, familiarity, apathy, or dementia!! I don't know, and don't care. I suppose we think we have enough assets to live how we prefer to live, in our LCOL (low cost of living) area, after...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9958

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Peter Lynch's 7% was from the immediate prior 20 years of historical returns in the mid-1990s, on a 100% dividend stock portfolio (stock shares, not a dividend stock index fund), and not a long history, nor a diversified portfolio. McClung's withdrawing from bonds first, has some merit for those who...
by heyyou
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What hedge strategies do you employ?
Replies: 29
Views: 2544

Re: What hedge strategies do you employ?

Prior to retirement, sold the multi-story house and bought the smaller, cheaper, single level retiree sized home. Delaying SS to age 70. Stayed at the job with a no-COLA pension until the pension credits equaled our conservative spending and we could get less expensive retiree healthcare (at age 55)...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1209

Re: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy

Seconding what 02nz stated above:
Retirement accounts that are only tax sheltered have a large exposure to higher taxes late in retirement after one of you passes. The survivor has only half as many tax deductions as the couple, while the % withdrawal for each annual RMD is rapidly escalating.
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1209

Re: Optimized Retirement Withdrawal Strategy

Optimal implies some certainty about the future, and there just isn't any. Yes, there is history, but not enough when trying to forecast future average returns for the next thirty years. Read Michael H. McClung (include the middle initial to avoid the video game author) since he reproduced previous ...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull Market Timing
Replies: 60
Views: 4442

Re: Bull Market Timing

So far, those who blindly stay the course have done better than anyone who has tried to jump in and out of the stock market. History shows that if someone did anticipate the bad times correctly, they would have done better, but no one has done that repeatedly. Elaine Garzarelli was famously right on...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 5582

Re: Factor Investing - A convincing article

In Roth's article, every one of those segment returns in the first chart, is okay to me. I am past wanting only whatever performed the best, so my slice and dice portfolio, with its somewhat equal exposures to various size and value stocks, has suited me just fine. My tilt is away from Large Growth,...
by heyyou
Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9958

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Bengen, author of the 4% SWR (because that number was 95% effective) did his research after Peter Lynch used only the most recent 20 year data (in the 1990s) to suggest withdrawing (WD) 7% annually from a portfolio of 100% dividend paying stocks. The Trinity University professors duplicated and upda...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV: Buy & Hold, or Trade Trade Trade?!
Replies: 5
Views: 1016

Re: SCV: Buy & Hold, or Trade Trade Trade?!

Buy and hold SCV here, because that suits me. Others probably do better than I, but I've done okay. Saving more was my best method of growing my portfolio. I have no investing advice for others, but I can sure tell them how they ought to save.
by heyyou
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years
Replies: 111
Views: 14541

Re: 70% chance of correction in 2018 according to Vanguard - Highest in 15 years

chance of correction in 2018 Was it Fama who remarked about economists and astrologers on forecasting? Serenity prayer: "to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and (the) wisdom to know the difference." Firesign Theatre: "Who knows? Who cares?" As a Supreme Court j...
by heyyou
Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 19
Views: 1188

Re: Arizona Chapter

I'm interested, and I will travel from Payson. Consider having meetings in multiple locations to match the better seasons, to attract those who aren't as interested in traveling. I think there are two BHs in Prescott, or maybe one of those was in Flagstaff, and someone else once mentioned Green Vall...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 11172

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Although my gross numbers are smaller than many here, so are my expenses in retirement. I can afford to not need better performance than holding equal amounts of foreign and domestic stock funds. Others should do what suits them.
by heyyou
Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are there any simple strategies that can help us squeeze better returns?
Replies: 45
Views: 2988

Re: Are there any simple strategies that can help us squeeze better returns?

Another vote for saving a little bit more every year. The bonus is when you need 25 times your annual spending for a retirement nest egg, 25x your smaller spending is less money than 25x what your spendthrift coworkers need. I retired at 55 with that method, but I was a late adopter of the newest el...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPIA Return - Am I calculating this correctly?
Replies: 72
Views: 2728

Re: SPIA Return - Am I calculating this correctly?

At the OP: With all that distant certainty, why do you need so much certainty for the first 15 years of retirement? For most of us, the distant years are when the uncertainty occurs. Have you looked at just spending from bonds first (for your first 15 years) as suggested by Michael H. McClung, to le...
by heyyou
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?
Replies: 74
Views: 5200

Re: Retirees: Who's increasing their equities as they age?

Currently age 68, spending from portfolio and no-COLA pension. SS at age 70 plus the pension, will be more than our nominal work income. We might try McClung's spending from bonds first to let the equities grow, thus inadvertently increasing equities.
by heyyou
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guggenheim's Scott Minerd's dire forecast for financial markets
Replies: 17
Views: 2034

Re: Guggenheim's Scott Minerd's dire forecast for financial markets

Did anyone see the Scott Minerds interview today.
It will fluctuate.
by heyyou
Fri Apr 06, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14880

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

From the first page of this thread:
and plan on spending less and saving more
Works for me. Living within your means continues into retirement, bypassing the need for allocation gymnastics.
by heyyou
Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2309

Re: Value premium harvestable?

outperformed slightly (9.59% vs. 9.54%) over that 25.5 year span (1) Large cap growth has done very well since the last big crash. Anyone think that will repeat starting now, without another crash? (2) Some could say that .05% difference for 25 years is not statistically significant. (3) Since the ...
by heyyou
Tue Apr 03, 2018 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 22
Views: 2907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

Seems interesting, let me know when the ten year return info for those Alt funds is available.
by heyyou
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on implementing Paul Merriman's ultimate-buy-and-hold strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2100

Re: Seeking advice on implementing Paul Merriman's ultimate-buy-and-hold strategy

When others speak about what has done better recently, do remember we are all in this for the long term, so choosing what has done better over longer periods is a very reasonable choice. No one knows what will do best in the future.
by heyyou
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10116

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Warning: Geezer with story to tell- In the late 1990s, the America Abroad mutual fund bought only the S&P500 stocks that had significant foreign revenues, hoping to have diversification from domestic stocks. It didn't work since those particular stocks' buyers and sellers did not care about the % of...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 9728

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

Having done okay with index funds of securities vetted by the New York Stock Exchange, I have no interest in much more risky investments regardless of their recent history of large gains. I've already paid for my education about the proportions of risk and reward.
by heyyou
Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the magic savings rate???
Replies: 50
Views: 6208

Re: What’s the magic savings rate???

Sometimes I feel like I’m not investing enough for the future and other times I feel like I’m missing out on things because I’m not spending enough presently. Both of those thoughts may never stop occurring, but you can get used to them. There will always be coworkers with nicer cars, bigger houses...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many are using Automatic contributions?
Replies: 41
Views: 2780

Re: How many are using Automatic contributions?

No choice but automatic in my 401k for 25 years, then the contributions continued throughout the year as after-tax ones when the 401k was full. That seems to have worked out okay, I retired at age 55. Somehow luck often happens to those who save more than others. Maybe it is just time in the market ...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 30, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % Portfolio Wieght Concerns?
Replies: 23
Views: 1251

Re: % Portfolio Wieght Concerns?

Since the 2000 Crash, my preference is to underweight Large Growth using a slice and dice portfolio. With my confirmation bias, I like Michael H. McClung's research where he ran each of the equity sub-asset classes in a retirement spending calculator. We all know that Small Growth would do the worst...
by heyyou
Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning
Replies: 174
Views: 17321

Re: Are we missing recession /bear market beginning

In retirement, holding a decade of spending in bonds, and a decade of portfolio growth since retiring, I just don't care any more. Maybe that's apathy instead of confidence. Either way, we will muddle through whatever does happen.
by heyyou
Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3471

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

I know now that I don't know, so I just ride the stock market's volatility, buffered by my bond fund allocation that also buffers my gains from the stock index funds. Saving more was my best way to portfolio growth. I've seen enough crashes and eventual recoveries that I am somewhat calloused to the...
by heyyou
Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RMDs & "Prime Harvesting Strategy"
Replies: 7
Views: 1147

Re: RMDs & "Prime Harvesting Strategy"

Calculate the Prime Harvesting amount, subtract the RMD from it, to find how much more to withdraw (WD).
by heyyou
Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:27 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A lot of heavy hitters this morning
Replies: 244
Views: 17300

Re: A lot of heavy hitters this morning

A lot of heavy hitters this morning
Don't know, and don't care. Just feeling grateful for what I have learned here while ignoring the equivalent of noise from some posters. Seems like every garden has some kind of pests in it.
by heyyou
Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New 2019 RAV4 is now out - looks good
Replies: 34
Views: 2685

Re: New 2019 RAV4 is now out - looks good

As noted by others, it is often better to let new engines get tested by the public for a year or two before buying one. Thank you to the OP for posting about the '19 model. With 220K miles on my RAV4, I too am expecting to need another one soon.
by heyyou
Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on implementing Paul Merriman's ultimate-buy-and-hold strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2100

Re: Seeking advice on implementing Paul Merriman's ultimate-buy-and-hold strategy

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=38374 On the first graph, look closely at the top line, it is 4 funds and 8 funds but their returns are almost identical. Yes, the post has 720 entries but the first page or two cover the info, while the rest is just discussion that does not cha...
by heyyou
Tue Mar 27, 2018 3:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anything else we should be doing to be ready for retirement or increase wealth?
Replies: 33
Views: 3775

Re: Anything else we should be doing to be ready for retirement or increase wealth?

Choose to keep your future spending at today's current level, to save all of your future pay raises. One of your coworkers will often have a newer, better car than yours, another will take more expensive vacations, while a third will have a nicer house, the fourth will have a motor boat, etc. You wi...
by heyyou
Sat Mar 24, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack
Replies: 18
Views: 1839

Re: Sequence of Return Risk for Retirees - Consuello Mack / WealthTrack

AVOIDING THE NIGHTMARE OF RUNNING OUT OF MONEY IN RETIREMENT WITH TOP WEALTH ADVISOR, MARK CORTAZZO Just my opinion: "Nightmare" and "Running Out of Money in Retirement" written in ALL CAPS look like scare tactics of clickbait used to attract clients to an advisory service. If you start retirement ...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to fund taxable account? Lump sum or monthly?
Replies: 4
Views: 500

Re: How to fund taxable account? Lump sum or monthly?

Invest as soon as you can each time, since the concern about tax lots is just an easy tracking situation for your brokerage.
by heyyou
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skin In The Game [new N. Taleb book]
Replies: 23
Views: 3809

Re: Skin In The Game [new N. Taleb book]

It was sad when the market did not fall while Taleb's hedge fund was shorting it, at least for his investors. He was significantly right once in the past, and will be again some time in the future, but he wasn't successful soon enough when he was managing other people's money. I wonder where he inve...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 23, 2018 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?
Replies: 65
Views: 7804

Re: How can I start investing when equities and real estate are this much high?

Consider leaving all of your current money in your CDs, and investing all of your future savings in stock index mutual funds that are sure to fluctuate in value every day. You will have some stable priced savings that will only shrink by slow inflation, and some highly variably priced stock funds th...
by heyyou
Fri Mar 23, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trade wars and international equities
Replies: 17
Views: 2472

Re: Trade wars and international equities

Same here as Nisi, "It will fluctuate" was the answer to a similar question, about a century ago.
I know that I don't know, so there is nothing actionable about the situation. C'est la vie.
by heyyou
Tue Mar 20, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??
Replies: 54
Views: 6333

Re: Do you Continue to invest even in down market??

For 25 years, my 401k contributions were on automatic investment since that was the only option in those days. With that length of time period, it worked out fine (retired early). Just my opinion, but striving for more, also introduces more risk, not just the chance for more returns. What did work w...
by heyyou
Sun Mar 18, 2018 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisory Services Fees
Replies: 49
Views: 4287

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisory Services Fees

Our assets are with a lower cost, flat fee advisor that charges less than VG PAS would for our portfolio size. We have dealt with the same staff person (with an MBA degree) there since 2005. TD Ameritrade is the brokerage that holds the mutual funds and issues a monthly report for each account type ...
by heyyou
Sun Mar 18, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement - Fear of the Unknown
Replies: 34
Views: 3636

Re: Retirement - Fear of the Unknown

Yes, you are entering an unexperienced portion of your life, but most of those who have preceded you, did figure it out. Consider how many get married then stay married for a few decades after a series of much shorter relationships. Is that a valid analogy for finding the good part of retirement? Ab...
by heyyou
Sat Mar 17, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedging strategies to battle sequence of return risk?
Replies: 16
Views: 1330

Re: Hedging strategies to battle sequence of return risk?

Good post by longinvest. I would like to emphasis his #5. If your withdrawals are based on each recent annual portfolio value, you are not blindly continuing to over withdraw, early in retirement. That is key, sequence risk is from steadily spending more than the portfolio will support for the long ...