Search found 170 matches

by herpfinance
Fri Oct 27, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 91, 01, 09. Then 19? [Year for next market crash]
Replies: 27
Views: 2615

Re: 91, 01, 09. Then 19?

My prediction is that we will almost certainly have a market crash at some point in the future.
by herpfinance
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: [Germany only] Vanguard ETFs now available on XETRA

As an investor based in Denmark, this is something that I appreciate as well.

I'll have to check my brokers in order to see if additional ETF's have become available. I currently do not use Vanguard ETF's as they have not been as easy to access as other providers.
by herpfinance
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12662

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

Sound advice from Mr. Bogle.

I have no plans to change asset allocation at this time, as stocks are still much more attractive on a valuation basis than bonds. Additionally, I already lean conservative.
by herpfinance
Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to not obsess over investments?
Replies: 46
Views: 4272

Re: How to not obsess over investments?

I'm taking a step back and reading more on coming up with a definitive investment plan. Do I want to tilt towards small/mid caps? What should my asset allocation be given my risk tolerance? What portion of my holdings do I want in International Funds? These are questions that should have been explo...
by herpfinance
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 177
Views: 18292

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

A unprofitable business with its stock selling at very lofty valuations? Not something I'd take the odds on.

It's a lottery ticket. As long as you acknowledge that for buying a basket of these, your odds are high of coming out with a loss, I say go ahead.
by herpfinance
Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28yr old - retirement portfolio - denmark
Replies: 14
Views: 1825

Re: 28yr old - retirement portfolio - denmark

but if i look at the eunl (iwda) in usd vs eur on my platform, then usd is ytd 12,54% and eur ytd is 0,81% for is3n (emim) it is usd 23,37% vs 11,55% they all hv the same isin behind them (iwda IE00B4L5Y983 - emim IE00BKM4GZ66) so obviously its becayse of the currency of the fund - but then surely ...
by herpfinance
Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard [sudden change in Vanguard fund P/Es]
Replies: 29
Views: 4726

Re: Stocks just got cheaper... per Vanguard [sudden change in Vanguard fund P/Es]

Why do you say this? I understand the issues with forward earnings. However it is my understanding that forward earnings have more predictive value than backwards earnings. Looking forward in the fog instead of driving by the rear view mirror sort of thing. Forward earnings are more often than not ...
by herpfinance
Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 607
Views: 162274

Re: Share your net worth progression

Pretty fun to dig up your old posts. I made this one just last year in a thread about hitting your first $100k. I hit that milestone last year. I don't remember if it was before or after my birthday, so either at age 30 or 31. I feel pretty confident saying that I will reach 200k before age 35. Well...
by herpfinance
Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 28yr old - retirement portfolio - denmark
Replies: 14
Views: 1825

Re: 28yr old - retirement portfolio - denmark

Hi hojlund88 Nice to see another dane on the forum! I don't believe there's many of us around. I believe iShares Global AAA-AA Govt Bond UCITS ETF is not currency-hedged? If so, you should factor currency risk into the equation as well as it will lead to increased volatility. I prefer not taking cur...
by herpfinance
Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?
Replies: 19
Views: 2812

Re: A Better Version Of The Warren Buffett 90/10 Portfolio?

When experts evaluate portfolios, they assess total return, which is expected appreciation plus dividend yield. High dividend strategies do not outperform total return strategies. It's equivalent to liquidate the appreciated shares to match the desired % return. The difference is only emotional/beh...
by herpfinance
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regret early retirement/downsizing
Replies: 230
Views: 42626

Re: Regret early retirement/downsizing

Different people are different. If I had had the money, I could have happily retired at age 24. I'm a creative person who can write, make music, pursue publishing and countless other projects. I don't get my energy or motivation from social situations or other people. I don't need or want validatio...
by herpfinance
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 607
Views: 162274

Re: Share your net worth progression

I'm still very much at the beginning of my journey, but here are a couple of milestones:

$100k September 2014
$150k July 2016

$195k today.

I'm in my early 30's.
by herpfinance
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Privacy vs $$$$
Replies: 31
Views: 4460

Re: Privacy vs $$$$

runner3081 wrote: Fake phone number and fake email address.

All of our frequent shopper accounts, etc are done that way.

Problem solved.

And no, I am not bothered by giving up my privacy in certain situations, but still give out fake info.
Why haven't I considered that before? What a simple and great idea!
by herpfinance
Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6229

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

I remember Bob Brinker long ago commenting that a 50/50 portfolio would make 80% of the gains that a 100% equity portfolio makes. I think this fits perfectly with my posts on volatility drag / portfolio efficiency. Dave Unless he was implying on a CAGR-basis, that seems highly questionable to me. D...
by herpfinance
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6229

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

I remember Bob Brinker long ago commenting that a 50/50 portfolio would make 80% of the gains that a 100% equity portfolio makes. I think this fits perfectly with my posts on volatility drag / portfolio efficiency. Dave Unless he was implying on a CAGR-basis, that seems highly questionable to me. D...
by herpfinance
Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 6229

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

Clear, concise, and straight to the point. The lesson from Pascal’s wager is that the consequences of decisions should dominate the probabilities of outcomes, no matter your estimate of the odds. That is why the prudent strategy for investors who have reached the point where their marginal utility o...
by herpfinance
Mon Jun 12, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 8469

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

I'm in my early 30's and when taking every single account into question, 60/40 is roughly my allocation. If you exclude short term savings for a car, the equity portion is a bit higher. I agree with most of your points, too, and unless there's a major life change, I plan to stick with the allocation...
by herpfinance
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 12319

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

My prediction is that we will have a crash either this year, or next year, or the year after next year, or..
by herpfinance
Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?
Replies: 86
Views: 7377

Re: Does anyone treat taxable as a "someday fund"?

As a non-US investor without access to tax free shelters but with access tax advantaged shelters that generally cannot be accessed without significant tax penalties before retirement age, I keep two separate portfolios - one in tax-advantaged accounts and one in taxable, the latter of which is more ...
by herpfinance
Tue May 30, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 71
Views: 6336

Re: Young EU Investor

Thanks Valuethinker! Makes much more sense to me now. No free lunch to be had in this case.
by herpfinance
Tue May 30, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 71
Views: 6336

Re: Young EU Investor

At the risk of thread hijacking and slight gravedigging, I'm going to ask a question in this thread. I see that the short term gilts IGLS have YTM of 0.19%, thats not even enough to cover the 0.2% TER of the ETF.. What is your internal motivation for keeping them? US treasuries hedged to GBP with si...
by herpfinance
Mon May 29, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1617
Views: 289134

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

I'm in the same boat as NiceUnparticularMan. I have investments at a handful of banks/brokers and with varying contributions, it would be a real headache to figure out the return. That said, as just about all of the asset classes that I invest in have had positive returns this year and my AA is rath...
by herpfinance
Sun May 28, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 5745

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

To me this is a powerful argument for world-wide diversification. I believe that U.S. Stock Market valuations are stretched, but not irrationally so. Higher P/E's are not unexpected in a low interest rate environment. Simplegift wrote a great post, I have concern that we are going to a new "paradig...
by herpfinance
Thu May 25, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market News Feeds Worth Reading?
Replies: 22
Views: 2437

Re: Market News Feeds Worth Reading?

For a long term buy and hold investor, market news are generally not worth bothering with.

Tune out the noise!

On a slightly related note, I do like following a couple of blogs. For instance Wealth Logic Newsletter by Allan Roth.
by herpfinance
Wed May 10, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest rate per year
Replies: 6
Views: 770

Re: Interest rate per year

At $500 I would not even think twice. I would be looking at a much larger purchase before even considering financing.
by herpfinance
Wed May 10, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Interest rate per year
Replies: 6
Views: 770

Re: Interest rate per year

I have low expenses and I never buy big ticket items, so financing isn't even relevant.

That said, I might consider something in the ballpark of 2-3% if it were an option. Only for large purchases, though.
by herpfinance
Sat May 06, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Literacy
Replies: 27
Views: 2658

Re: Financial Literacy

71% as a non-American. Not too bad I'd say.

I was fairly clueless about Medicare, Medicaid and long-term care related questions.
by herpfinance
Sun Apr 23, 2017 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Bank Just Raised 5yr CD to 2.25%
Replies: 28
Views: 4682

Re: Ally Bank Just Raised 5yr CD to 2.25%

If the stock market tanks the Treasury price is likely to go up and the CD goes down because of the EWP. Risk is a two way street. Kevin and I have gone round & round on the CD/Treasury. He discounts things like covariance with equities calling them "speculative". That's like ignoring the weather f...
by herpfinance
Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Bank Just Raised 5yr CD to 2.25%
Replies: 28
Views: 4682

Re: Ally Bank Just Raised 5yr CD to 2.25%

What am I missing? The yield on the five year Treasury is 1.77 with no state tax and no EWP. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield You're missing interest rate risk. The short term loss from investing in CD's is limited by the EWP, ...
by herpfinance
Sat Apr 22, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 44254

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I'm sorry to see you go, Larry.

I've gained so much knowledge from reading your posts and contributions on other sites.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
by herpfinance
Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why invest in International Index Fund?
Replies: 39
Views: 5002

Re: Why invest in International Index Fund?

zuma wrote:Here's a good answer.
Excellent post. I like how the 50/50 split produces the best risk-adjusted returns.
by herpfinance
Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 13639

Re: NON-US (Ireland) ETFs - Simplified Ultimate Buy and Hold Porfolio

Agreed with galeno and Hyperborea. US estate tax is enough reason for me to not consider investing in US-domiciled funds as an EU-based investor. The extra dividend withholding tax just nudges me even further away from considering such funds. For equity ETF's, a mix of SWDA and EIMI is still my pref...
by herpfinance
Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard funds for emergency cash
Replies: 14
Views: 2235

Re: Vanguard funds for emergency cash

I prefer holding assets that I know are going to be deployed or otherwise spent within the next few years in pure cash. Even if you invest in bonds with limited credit risk, there's still interest rate risk which could somewhat erode the principal in the short term.
by herpfinance
Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?
Replies: 116
Views: 11581

Re: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?

Great! So if we took a hypoethical example where one wants to retire at 30 then maybe they would need to calculate 60 times predicted living expenses? Is that correct? How would interest on the investments, or rather projected interest, factor into all of this? Also what about inflation assuming th...
by herpfinance
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two comma club - thank you
Replies: 16
Views: 4740

Re: Two comma club - thank you

Congratulations! :sharebeer
by herpfinance
Sat Apr 01, 2017 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone decreasing % of bonds this year?
Replies: 91
Views: 8493

Re: Is anyone decreasing % of bonds this year?

No plans to change allocation. I will re-evaluate at age 35 (in 2.5 years), but I doubt it will change anything.

Only extreme valuations or a huge and unexpected windfall (one can always hope!) would make me increase my bond holdings.
by herpfinance
Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 9788

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

I like the mental idea of buckets during the withdrawal phase, but I find Benz's approach far too complicated. I've personally found the most appealing approach to be that of of Jim C. Otar in Unveiling the Retirement Myth . I'll summarize the key points here: Allocate two years' of withdrawals to a...
by herpfinance
Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund for Emergency Expenses: ETF versus bond Mutual Fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1067

Re: Bond Fund for Emergency Expenses: ETF versus bond Mutual Fund

With $10k?? I think you have spent too much brain energy on this already. Anything beyond a savings account for this amount isn't worth the effort, IMO. Worry about the rest of your portfolio and let this $10k sit somewhere doing nothing. Fully agreed. I don't want any kind of market risk in my EF,...
by herpfinance
Sun Mar 19, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27304

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Why not at least hedge with the L income fund? The G alone makes no sense to me. In 2008 the Income fund lost only 5% and recovered that plus 2.5% the following year. The G fund is particularly attractive as your principal is always guaranteed. In other words, there is no decline in principal due t...
by herpfinance
Fri Mar 17, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else taking less risk
Replies: 115
Views: 11897

Re: Anyone else taking less risk

My asset allocation is already a bit conservative for my age (although not overly so). As I invest globally and in different funds than most BH's, my equity benchmark is a combination of MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Markets. By using a weighted PE, we come up around 22 times earnings for the past 12 m...
by herpfinance
Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $464.12 dinner bill last night. No regrets.
Replies: 78
Views: 11412

Re: $464.12 dinner bill last night. No regrets.

What a great story.

Money well spent! :beer
by herpfinance
Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out
Replies: 94
Views: 8164

Re: Anyone sorry they used bonds when starting out

I don't look at 75/25 as conservative at all. Ben Graham used to say no one should hold more than 75% in stocks and less than 25%. I believed his ideal portfolio was 50/50. Warren Buffett touched oh this and he said Ben was very conservative because he lived through the Great Depression. Warren wit...
by herpfinance
Thu Mar 09, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 175
Views: 27304

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves If you're sitting in cash, your expected return is going to be lower than holding a healthy dose of stocks. Even Warren Buffett thinks that stocks are...
by herpfinance
Sun Mar 05, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: international bonds a good idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 2940

Re: international bonds a good idea?

At current rates, I do not see the appeal in investing in international bonds. You take more credit risk for less yield.

However, if you wish to take a truly a long term approach, it can be sensible. There's no telling how the yields are going to be a few years from now.
by herpfinance
Mon Dec 05, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?
Replies: 91
Views: 11438

Re: What was your Asset Allocation before and after retirement?

At the age of 32, I'm a very long way out from retirement. That said, I'm at 75/25 and have been there for the past couple of years. It wasn't long ago that I even started taking investing seriously, and it took me about half a year to settle on that allocation. I feel pretty comfortable about the c...
by herpfinance
Mon Sep 05, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stopped at the Crossroads
Replies: 21
Views: 3575

Re: Stopped at the Crossroads

I have a tendency to be a very lazy investor. I try to read two books a year and sometimes I get very excited and think "I'm going to invest in a REIT!" or "I'm going to add a small cap fund!" or "I should tilt to value!" and then invariably I do not. But then I justif...
by herpfinance
Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unethical to chase transfer bonuses?
Replies: 52
Views: 4935

Re: Unethical to chase transfer bonuses?

CajunDan wrote:Fidelity called me right after the transfer and said they would give me $2500 nine months from now to transfer my money back to them.


They actively contacted you with an offer because it was in their interest to win you back. I don't see anything unethical about accepting their offer.
by herpfinance
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European investor - 3-fund portfolio [Portfolio help requested]
Replies: 15
Views: 1265

Re: European investor - 3-fund portfolio [Portfolio help requested]

IEAG is a broad bond fund and a reasonable choice if you don't mind some credit risk in your bonds. However, at the current yield (0.19%) I wonder if it wouldn't be a better idea to use a savings account to fill the bond portion of your portfolio? That's assuming you have some sort of government bac...
by herpfinance
Thu Aug 11, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Am I saving enough? Budget & Retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1960

Re: Am I saving enough? Budget & Retirement

So you're saving $3500 (+$500 to Roth) out of a take home pay of $6500? That's quite a heroic savings rate!