Search found 7137 matches

by grok87
Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1157
Views: 155263

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

IMO back testing can be misleading and has led many astray in the past. If I am not mistaken this is how one of AQR's funds blew up in the past (folks relying on historical back-tested results). A Packer yep. As lack_ey points out the backtest for this fund starts in 1990. How could one possibly ar...
by grok87
Sun Jan 22, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1157
Views: 155263

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

https://s30.postimg.org/rcb059k6p/Snap3.jpg upload image online free Volatility was also rising just before the crash, going from around 10% to 20% just before the crash. With their vol target in practice, position would have been halved (approximately) before entering the crash. Also market struct...
by grok87
Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1157
Views: 155263

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

IMO back testing can be misleading and has led many astray in the past. If I am not mistaken this is how one of AQR's funds blew up in the past (folks relying on historical back-tested results). A Packer yep. As lack_ey points out the backtest for this fund starts in 1990. How could one possibly ar...
by grok87
Sat Jan 21, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1157
Views: 155263

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

How are you guys confident that this will not join the ranks of the high-cost alternative funds with less than market performance? How much underperformance would make you move somewhere else? Is there a benchmark you can use to see if the strategy is meeting its return objectives or not? If so, wh...
by grok87
Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2092

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

This along with QSPNX are the 2 alternative funds that I intend to include in my portfolio. Both are only slightly positively correlated with each other and bonds, but negatively correlated with equities. I would have created a position last year if I wasn't trying ensure that both my wife and I ha...
by grok87
Thu Jan 19, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for limited bond fund options in 401k
Replies: 14
Views: 941

Re: Advice for limited bond fund options in 401k

I would go with option 4. I wouldn't invest in any of those bond funds. And remember there have been cases of stable value funds losing money. Thank you for the input. Just for additional information: to accomplish option 4 (i.e. put all bond assets in the Roth IRA), with my desired AA, I would nee...
by grok87
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 32
Views: 2765

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

TIPS are insurance against unexpected inflation. The cost of that insurance is rather low at the moment. It's odd to say insurance provides no benefit just because your house didn't burn down or just because you didn't get sick or die or just because your car didn't crash. I know what my term life ...
by grok87
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for limited bond fund options in 401k
Replies: 14
Views: 941

Re: Advice for limited bond fund options in 401k

I would go with option 4. I wouldn't invest in any of those bond funds. And remember there have been cases of stable value funds losing money.
by grok87
Wed Jan 18, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone using i-orp as a guide for withdrawals?
Replies: 19
Views: 1645

Re: Anyone using i-orp as a guide for withdrawals?

So it took me a while to track down i-orp.
https://www.i-orp.com/
It seems to recommend starting retirement with a 60/40 stock/bond allocation.
The vanguard balanced index fund has this allocation and lost 22% in 2008.
Not sure how i would feel about that if i was starting retirement in that year...
by grok87
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: List of possible investments
Replies: 23
Views: 1433

Re: List of possible investments

I would move annuity to fixed income.

I would move reits and international reits to stocks and leave direct real estate in other.

I would add hedge funds/ market neutral funds to other.
by grok87
Sun Jan 15, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5363

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

dbr wrote:I is a tough business when your income depends on coming up with nonsense day after day.

+1
by grok87
Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX) vs ??
Replies: 36
Views: 2676

Re: Advice on Vanguard Managed Payout Fund (VPGDX) vs ??

I would make these points about the Managed Payout fund. The big things it has going for it is that it is the only Vanguard balanced fund (stocks and bonds both) that pays out monthly, and it is the only set-and-forget product that is intended for the purpose of delivering monthly income from a bal...
by grok87
Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money
Replies: 50
Views: 3976

Re: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money

Hello, While there are no certainties, bogleheads clearly believe that over time, staying invested is a prudent investment. Time is your friend. If forced to answer "over what time period will stocks NOT lose money....in real terms, what would you say?". If forced to give an answer on thi...
by grok87
Sun Jan 08, 2017 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money
Replies: 50
Views: 3976

Re: Over what time period should stocks NOT lose money

Hello, While there are no certainties, bogleheads clearly believe that over time, staying invested is a prudent investment. Time is your friend. If forced to answer "over what time period will stocks NOT lose money....in real terms, what would you say?". If forced to give an answer on thi...
by grok87
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury returns historically almost match corporate bonds?
Replies: 9
Views: 845

Re: Treasury returns historically almost match corporate bonds?

Yep Some numbers and discussion here "Grok's tip #14: Avoid long-term corporate bonds" https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=116549 Over the past 40 years, the average annual return since inception of the Barclays long term corporate bond index was 8.88%. Not too shabby...
by grok87
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 4245

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

Interpreted somewhat literally, this is basically an argument for the liability matching portfolio (LMP) approach advocated by Bernstein, Bodie, et al. in other words, start buying 30 year tips when you are say 35 years old and keep buying them for 30 years until you retire at age 65. Then you will...
by grok87
Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 4245

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

Interpreted somewhat literally, this is basically an argument for the liability matching portfolio (LMP) approach advocated by Bernstein, Bodie, et al. in other words, start buying 30 year tips when you are say 35 years old and keep buying them for 30 years until you retire at age 65. Then you will...
by grok87
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"
Replies: 49
Views: 4245

Re: "The 401k Problem We Refuse to Solve"

An interesting article on Bloomberg on the 401k. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-03/the-401-k-problem-we-refuse-to-solve Probably nothing new to people on this forum. To me the money quote is: "The 401(k) was not the miracle cure for our retirement problems that was promised by...
by grok87
Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Fund question with charles schwab
Replies: 24
Views: 1896

Re: 3 Fund question with charles schwab

OK, but if you buy that index fund and it changes its index every few years are you any wiser for choosing that fund just because it has the term "index" in its name. I think so. I doubt that you think so. :happy The funds may perform essentially the same, but one has what I'd call "...
by grok87
Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Fund question with charles schwab
Replies: 24
Views: 1896

Re: 3 Fund question with charles schwab

I just don't like for people to think they are buying a total bond market index fund when they are not buying an index fund at all. Agree. As we all learned in the global financial crisis there are a lot of cruddy tricks that managers can play in an actively managed bond fund. For example my 401k u...
by grok87
Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 123
Views: 6430

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

LadyGeek wrote:
BTW, I won the Canadian 2016 hedge fund contest on a single long pick.

* Canadian-US investing differences - finiki, the Canadian financial wiki

congratulations!
by grok87
Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 123
Views: 6430

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Consternatio Partners

Long
WOR
EPE
ESV

Short
GLBL
AI (Arlington Asset)
ORC
by grok87
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5468

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

TIPS did not exist until 1997 so your backtest is synthetic. I would not give too much credit to a backtested synthetic performance with a 15 basis point advantage. The in vivo data for TIPS we have is that they were illiquid in 2008 and went down in value. When the S&*t is hitting the fan like...
by grok87
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PENFED 5 year CD rate 2.25%
Replies: 6
Views: 1301

Re: PENFED 5 year CD rate 2.25%

Just fyi, I saw the rate for 5 year CD at PENFED was 2.25%. Looks like early redemption penalty within first year is all interest earned. After first year the penalty is 30% of the interest the certificate would have earned if it had been held to maturity. Penalty sounds too high for me. Agreed. Pe...
by grok87
Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

BTW I've heard from some who should know that Vanguard takes a very handsome cut on life annuities purchased from Income Solutions compared with most other avenues for purchasing life annuities from Income Solutions. What are other avenues? Quote I have says Vanguard takes 2%. I tried to get quote ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new security key option
Replies: 48
Views: 5654

Re: Vanguard's new security key option

nyclon wrote:
grok87 wrote:Pretty cool.

Does anybody else do this like fidelity?


I've been using this with Etrade for years. Incredible peace of mind.

thanks
by grok87
Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

The google doc shows positions 2 & 3 reversed with ready20 having a return of 42.55%, while grok87 gets 43.06%. Perhaps a transcription error? Possibly, as the spreadsheet does indeed show the positions reversed. :shock: However, I checked that 3 times and no one else has challenged the standin...
by grok87
Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

The battle for 2nd place raged on throughout the intra-day. But at the closing bell, it was Groovin Mahoovin edging out Consternatio Partners by 0.51%. The final standings are in: Rank Fund (Manager) Return % 1 Tanelorn Capital: Better Lucky Than Good (Tanelorn) 99.66% 2 Groovin Mahoovin (ready20) ...
by grok87
Sat Dec 31, 2016 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Here is a potential issue that makes me want to buy one now, even as I am still relatively quite young for any sort of mortality credits (though planning to retire in 5 years or so). TIPS approach assumes there will be ability to buy inflation adjusted SPIA in say 20-30 years. However, that is not ...
by grok87
Sat Dec 31, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 123
Views: 6430

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

abuss368 wrote:This will be tough. Must think about this some more.

+1
by grok87
Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

The battle for 2nd place raged on throughout the intra-day. But at the closing bell, it was Groovin Mahoovin edging out Consternatio Partners by 0.51%. The final standings are in: Rank Fund (Manager) Return % 1 Tanelorn Capital: Better Lucky Than Good (Tanelorn) 99.66% 2 Groovin Mahoovin (ready20) ...
by grok87
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Norbert has also been missing from his Canadian contest: 2016 hedge fund contest - Financial Wisdom Forum I copied BackOfTheNet's (collaborative) spreadsheet and incorporated the Canadian contest info: 2016 Hedge Fund Contest Financial Wisdom Forum - Google Sheets The contest includes picks from th...
by grok87
Fri Dec 30, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5468

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

boglesmkcents wrote: The 20% LTT/20% TIPS suggested by grok is the best mix I found, however, I went with the 10/20/10 mix based on concerns about where we stand with interest rates.


that's interesting.
by grok87
Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Miriam2 wrote:
grok87 wrote:Yay! I'm in 3rd place now and within striking distance of 2nd.

Thank goodness, because you slipped from 1st place in Taylor's Boglehead S&P Contest to 296th place :shock: 8-)

:)
by grok87
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 250
Views: 23411

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Yay! I'm in 3rd place now and within striking distance of 2nd.
by grok87
Tue Dec 27, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"
Replies: 42
Views: 4283

Re: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"

Good discussion. Having read his "Unconventional Success" and been heavily influenced by it, my view is that he DOES intend the quoted advice for all investors. But again, context is important. The context here is that this is meant to be one's "long term" portfolio. By that he ...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"
Replies: 42
Views: 4283

Re: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"

Good discussion. Having read his "Unconventional Success" and been heavily influenced by it, my view is that he DOES intend the quoted advice for all investors. But again, context is important. The context here is that this is meant to be one's "long term" portfolio. By that he ...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"
Replies: 42
Views: 4283

Re: David Swensen says "never have anything weighted more than 30%"

Good discussion. Having read his "Unconventional Success" and been heavily influenced by it, my view is that he DOES intend the quoted advice for all investors. But again, context is important. The context here is that this is meant to be one's "long term" portfolio. By that he m...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

What about a strategy that has the majority of the money to be annuitized (*not* even close to all of it, in our case, we expect) split into 2 or 3 (?) laddered annuities (laddered especially if this all starts during low interest rates)? And then add a few much smaller deferred annuities, probably...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Bottom line for me is: For income: Non-inflation-adjusted Fixed Annuities and Bonds. For inflation protection: Stocks. I feel that approach has essentially historically worked as demonstrated by Firecalc and similar tools. It's the underlying theory. i think the main concern with this approach is a...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5468

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

Many thanks for all the tremendously valuable insights and suggestions posted to date in this thread. I have found it all to be very helpful and educational! Here is an update on my current target portfolio plans for 2017 and beyond, now that I am ready to shift from a 72/28 portfolio (currently at...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

While TIPS have been mentioned as a possible alternative, no one has mentioned the lowly I Bonds which actually offer better protection since they not only keep up with inflation but, unlike TIPS, can never lose value. In addition to inflation protection, they also offer DEflation protection, and t...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

What about a strategy that has the majority of the money to be annuitized (*not* even close to all of it, in our case, we expect) split into 2 or 3 (?) laddered annuities (laddered especially if this all starts during low interest rates)? And then add a few much smaller deferred annuities, probably...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Another problem with buying any type of deferred annuity is that the insurance company will effectively have some kind of "expense ratio" (not sure the right term here) say 1% per year (made up number). All those years while your money is sitting there, some of it is being siphoned off to...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

It doesn't seem like a market failure so much as the overwhelming majority of people aren't interesting what grok87 wants; though that may be an artifact of the relatively low-inflation for the past many years and the newness of the product. FWIW, I've always felt that deferred annuities are under-...
by grok87
Mon Dec 26, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Well you are right of course. And that is what i have been doing. But at some point execution risk becomes an issue (what if i screw this up when i'm older). Ideally i'd like to gradually start buying a deferred inflation adjusted annuity that starts 20 years from now. Say buy 5% of it a year for t...
by grok87
Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Vanguard and Fidelity both have fixed single premium immediate annuities that have payments that go up a fixed percent each year (like 2 percent). These have always seemed to be a better, more predictable thing than inflation adjusted ones, because that's a number that can be pulled out of the air,...
by grok87
Sun Dec 25, 2016 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

What i'm really looking for is a product that hedges my inflation risk. That obviously means some insurance company would be taking on some inflation risk. None of them really seem interested in doing that. Feels like a market failure to me. Insurance companies prices their products based on their ...
by grok87
Sun Dec 25, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?
Replies: 47
Views: 3385

Re: Good time to buy inflation-adjusted SPIA?

Vanguard and Fidelity both have fixed single premium immediate annuities that have payments that go up a fixed percent each year (like 2 percent). These have always seemed to be a better, more predictable thing than inflation adjusted ones, because that's a number that can be pulled out of the air,...

Go to advanced search