Search found 7192 matches

by grok87
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 117
Views: 17733

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

FreeAtLast wrote:To me, his triple play combination of expertise, rationality and patience serves as an exemplar to emulate in one's life.

+1
by grok87
Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New work 401k options
Replies: 4
Views: 314

Re: New work 401k options

I think the OP's choices are just fine.

As per morningstar, the vanguard small cap fund is actually 43% in midcaps.

Go figure huh!
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 2196

Re: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?

The location % of your assets will vary based on the withdrawal rate, filing status for taxes, other possible itemized deductions. For me it is simple as I file married/joint and take the standard exemptions of 15,100 (over 65 taxpayers) plus 8100 personal exemptions for total of 23,200.00 before a...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fidelity equivalent of vanguard total international bond index?
Replies: 11
Views: 843

Re: fidelity equivalent of vanguard total international bond index?

the two funds track slightly different indexes. the barclays one caps any one issuer or government at 10% whereas the vanguard caps at 10%. the vanguard one is float adjusted whereas the barclays one is not. i don't think the 10% vs. 20% cap is that material going forward- it relates mostly to Japan...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 2196

Re: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?

Hi all, There's a lot of discussion about asset allocation as you build up you assets, and how to slowly get more conservative as you get closer to your retirement. I know that asset location is discussed also - that tax deferred are preferred to help grow your portfolio. But, tax diversification i...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for mattress in the NJ area
Replies: 6
Views: 315

Re: Looking for mattress in the NJ area

I was researching some of the threads here and went to Mattress Underground. It seems to be clear that one should avoid the majors. The dilemma is to find reputable stores in my area and actually "test-drive" them. Anyone have store to recommend in the NJ area, preferably central? Budget ...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

I don't actually view TIPS as investing. It is simply to preserve the value of what you already have. As long as YTM is 0% or higher, It's like cash without inflation. If you have $10,000 and want to be able to buy $10,000 worth of stuff in 30 years, put it into TIPS. [OT comment removed by admin L...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

just a warning that bloomberg is currently messed up in its display of the 30 year tips. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us Currently it shows: Coupon 0.88 (i.e. 0.875) price 102.04 yield 0.90% Obviously the math doesn't work. If a 30 year bond with a 0.875% coupon tra...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

John Bull can stand many things but he cannot stand 2%. Cheers, wbond nice reference http://www.economist.com/node/17043652 Buttonwood Another paradox of thrift Why low interest rates could also encourage saving Sep 16th 2010 “JOHN BULL can stand many things but he cannot stand two per cent.” That ...
by grok87
Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Results are in: 0.923%. This is a better outcome than i was hoping for. Looks like the auction "tailed" significantly by say 4 bp. That means that the Auction yield was 4 bp higher than the secondary market yield of the on-the-run issue (0.88%) in the run up to the auction. Interesting. It...
by grok87
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Uggh.
Secondary yield for 29 year tip now at 0.88%.
Looks like inflation protection is in demand after yesterdays CPI numbers.
I'm guessing the auction yield today will be below 0.9%

Uggh
I'm leaving my order as is though...
by grok87
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

We have had very low inflation for a while 2016 1.26% 2015 0.12% 2014 1.62% 2013 1.47% 2012 2.07% 2011 3.16% 2010 1.64% 2009 -0.34% 2008 3.85% 2007 2.85% 2006 3.24% 2005 3.39% 2004 2.68% 2003 2.27% 2002 1.59% 2001 2.83% 2000 3.38% But it sounds to me that people in the know are expecting higher inf...
by grok87
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Agree. At this point i'm hoping for 0.95%, even 1% seems well out of reach.
by grok87
Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Angst wrote:
grok87 wrote:Secondary yield is now down to 0.95% so i'm hoping for 1.05% now at auction...

Hi grok,
I too am in for a 1/3 of my annual purchase. Rates appear to be climbing back up a bit today, which is promising. Where exactly were you looking last week for that 0.95% secondary yield?
Angie

Bloomberg
by grok87
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with daughter's $100
Replies: 73
Views: 3989

Re: What to do with daughter's $100

If you decide to invest the $100 MyRA is pretty close to ideal for this type of small savings. Good observation! The OP may also be interested in this kiplinger article on great funds for under $500. Apparently charles schwab has a target date fund with a $100 minimum. http://www.kiplinger.com/arti...
by grok87
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX
Replies: 2
Views: 444

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX

Hello, I am 68 years old and about two months away from retirement. I plan to roll my 401K at VOYA to a Vanguard rollover IRA. My goal was to find a fund or funds that I can purchase that would let me draw 4% a year with a reasonable expectation this would last me for life and leave something for m...
by grok87
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?

The main reason Japanese GDP growth seems low relative to other developed markets is negative population growth. Per capita GDP growth is in line with other markets. good point. see this reference http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY. ... desc=false there is a school of thought, to bring this bac...
by grok87
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 1026

Re: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?

The main reason Japanese GDP growth seems low relative to other developed markets is negative population growth. Per capita GDP growth is in line with other markets. good point. see this reference http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY. ... desc=false there is a school of thought, to bring this bac...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 3905

Re: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?

I wouldn't want to make an investment just so it declines less than the stock market. I want it to actually work for me in terms of earnings. It seems like I could very well come out ahead with just cash on hand at the moment. I just don't see how bonds are attractive during periods of low interest...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 3905

Re: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?

Well instead of total bond market, the US bond index, why not a total world bond index? You could make one out of vanguard funds... Isn't it always right, according to economic theory, to hold some sort of unhedged global cap weighted portfolio? Well no. No it isn't! it turns out that that's only th...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 34
Views: 3574

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

Shrewd people here (Grok87 I am looking at you!) piled in at real yields of 3.0% ish (price falls, yield rises). Made out like bandits. We've never seen real yields anything like that since. Thanks Valuethinker, that's very kind. I think you are perhaps referring to this thread? https://www.boglehe...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 369

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

That makes sense, thanks. I did not realize that there were that large swings in intermediate treasury prices. Is it possible for the VFIUX fund price to rise that significantly with interest rates as they stand today (historically low), though? Would the price of VFIUX (vs a CD at 3%) also shoot u...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 369

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

I'll rephrase my question about CDs in the hopes that somebody will bite: Would a 7 year CD at 3% with 6 month EWP serve the same purpose (protection against deflation or market downturn) at no higher risk and with better expected return than an intermediate treasury fund such as VFIUX? Or are they...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 369

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

Hello All, Relatively new to the forum and so impressed with all the knowledge that is so readily shared! I recently invested about 1.6 M split equally in taxable and IRA with Vanguard. Decided on using the Swensen Lazy Portfolio. My holdings ( percentages are percent of the 1.6M): Taxable: Vanguar...
by grok87
Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

spin_echo wrote:Thanks Grok - I have a 403b but can only buy mutual funds within it

what about ibonds?

can you buy ETFs in your 403B? if you can, then there is LTPZ which holds long term tips.
by grok87
Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Grok - would you buy if you only could buy in your taxable? I vaguely remember Nisperius saying that the taxes became complicated. I am in the 33% tax bracket. Thanks .... i probably wouldn't buy 30 year tips in taxable. maybe the 5 years. the main point of 30 year tips, for me, is to fund retireme...
by grok87
Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Secondary yield is now down to 0.95% so i'm hoping for 1.05% now at auction. You can start placing your orders on thursday.
by grok87
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good alternative to TIPS in taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 846

Re: Any good alternative to TIPS in taxable account?

Do you have any tax-advantaged space where you can put TIPS? I built a TIPS ladder to bridge from early retirement to SS at 70. What worked for me was to put most of it in my traditional IRA and leave equity mutual funds in taxable. The plan is to sell some of the equity funds around the time the T...
by grok87
Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I called Vanguard this morning to inquire why all Principal life annuity quotes, including real life annuities, now show up as N/A. The annuity specialist at Vanguard told me that as of last week Vanguard no longer works with Principal, but the technical issues have not been resolved in showing quo...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

it feels like a market failure to me. i don't really understand it. insurance companies can easily hedge their risk in issuing inflation protected annuities by buying TIPs. i just don't get it. But what do they do about the risk of annuitant pool being more long-lived than usual. They can take this...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

What I find hilarious is how the option to buy an Inflation-Indexed SPIA just quietly disappeared. Did any retirement expert say if you were planning to buy one you better get it before they run out? There was no announcement by anyone that a deadline was coming up. Nope, just suddenly one day the ...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

What I find hilarious is how the option to buy an Inflation-Indexed SPIA just quietly disappeared. Did any retirement expert say if you were planning to buy one you better get it before they run out? There was no announcement by anyone that a deadline was coming up. Nope, just suddenly one day the ...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I wonder if TIAA does a TIPS-containing variable annuity. That's somewhat similar to an Inflation-Adjusted SPIA, though the payout may depend on some factors (e.g. longevity of others in the pool). But it does insure against both longevity risk and inflation risk. TIAA is reputed to have the least ...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

I personally prefer a ten year @ 0.44% (or even a 5 year @ 0.02%) over a 30 year @ 1.01%. I don't buy TIPS for investment return. I buy them for preservation of purchasing power. personally i like the 5 years and the 30 years. The 30 years for long term liability matching. The 5 years because for t...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Guaranteed 1% real in this fixed income market isn't bad. The problem however is that a 30 year instrument maximizes duration/interest rate risk. If you need the money before 30 years and you're forced to sell your 30 year TIPS, you may suffer considerable principal loss if rates are higher and esp...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Yeesh, 0.99% for 30 years. I'm reminded of this xkcd: http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/investing.png great comic. i love xkcd. i'd be interested if there was somehow a link to all the finance xkcd comics or something like that. So point taken, but....I actually think this is an argument against nominal ...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 3921

30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

There will be a 30 year TIPs auction on Feb 16th. Current secondary market yield is 0.99% and I'm hoping we might get to 1.1% at the auction. The auction will be announced this thursday Feb 9th at which point you can begin placing your orders. Anyone buying? I will be in for my usual thrice yearly a...
by grok87
Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

The downside is that it doesn't work :twisted: . Just do the math to see that. According to Schwab's annuity quote a $10,000 nominal annuity gets you $624 a year: 6.24%. grayfox says that a 3% increase (not even true CPI-U) costs an extra +42%. So to get $624 you need to pay $14,200: 4.3% So you sp...
by grok87
Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

You can do it yourself. You have decided to invest X dollars to get an inflation adjusted annuity paying out Y dollars today. Use the X dollars to buy an SPIA that is not inflation-adjusted. Your payout will be larger: Y + Z. Live on Y (you've already decided that it is enough now), and invest the ...
by grok87
Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5286

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I find the lack of inflation adjusted annuities very disappointing.
by grok87
Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risk Parity Allocation Question
Replies: 9
Views: 581

Re: Risk Parity Allocation Question

I agree that calling this a risk parity portfolio seems a bit off. Seems more like a permanent portfolio type allocation with the long term treasuries and the gold. Also agree that QQQ would not be the best for stocks- total stock market is better. As far as the backtest, i would encourage 2 things:...
by grok87
Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2918

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

Title of the thread is discuss hedging the market. We can dispense the notion that Covered call hedges anything. 1. Wait for the drop in SPY sometime over the next year. If your view is market is going down then selling your stock (even shorting, buying put) is a better strategy than selling a cove...
by grok87
Wed Feb 01, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2918

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

Title of the thread is discuss hedging the market. We can dispense the notion that Covered call hedges anything. 1. Wait for the drop in SPY sometime over the next year. If your view is market is going down then selling your stock (even shorting, buying put) is a better strategy than selling a cove...
by grok87
Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans
Replies: 6
Views: 949

Re: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans

I guess i'm just stuck buying 30 year TIPS and hoping i don't get screwed on annuity rates when i want to annuitize say 20-30 years from now. Wouldn't having a portfolio of TIPS (to sell and annuitize) at retirement of varying maturities (because you've been buying them over the years) mitigate any...
by grok87
Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans
Replies: 6
Views: 949

Re: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans

Thanks,but i guess i'm unimpressed. Looks like just a "me too" of the DFA target date funds approach. Sure you can annuitize on retirement but you will be subject to whatever they are doing with annuity rates at that point in time. The DFA approach is useful but one can replicate it onese...
by grok87
Sun Jan 29, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2918

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

Just from my own experience: I have lost my appetite about using Stop Loss Sell orders after I literally lost $100k on my BRK holding in that infamous Flash Crash :oops: I held large positions in SPY and had significant cash coming in regularly. During the past few years SPY had been on a yo-yo bet...
by grok87
Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans
Replies: 6
Views: 949

Re: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans

TIAA is launching new custom target date funds (TDFs) for Defined Contribution (DC) retirement plans. These new TDFs include a mechanism for converting retirement savings into pension-like income during retirement. TIAA calls one of these new series of TDFs, the Target Income Models. According to T...
by grok87
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2918

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

OP did not state problem clearly. Whether he is looking for a hedge of his portfolio or his single stock position. He also mentions making more money than just plain hedge. Others have covered most of the aspect. I wanted to look at from a different perspective. These are all theoretical, none of i...
by grok87
Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2918

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

You might want to google put-call parity. Owning a stock (or ETF) and protecting it by buying a put is mathematically equivalent to owning a bond and buying a call option. Are you comfortable doing that? If not then don't do the "put" thing either...
by grok87
Sun Jan 22, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 3081

Re: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds

I have a lot of respect for David Swensen and was very fortunate to be able to attend one of his investment lectures. I would like to see Unconventional Success updated. I'd be surprised if he is now in favor of municipal bonds. In Unconventional Success he does speak somewhat favorably of tax-exem...

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