Search found 7211 matches

by grok87
Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
Replies: 20
Views: 1437

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem

I am wondering if there is a bias built into planning retirement based on historical success probabilities. For example, let's say that you run the numbers and determine that at a 4% WR you will run out of money in only 5% of historical 30 year periods. You decide that this is an acceptable risk an...
by grok87
Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!
Replies: 34
Views: 3865

Re: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!

Not much info as to why you love them so much. I wouldn't come close to loving them in this low inflation environment. the latest year over year cpi was 2.7%- not sure i'd consider that low any more. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- a...
by grok87
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!
Replies: 34
Views: 3865

Re: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!

Not much info as to why you love them so much. I wouldn't come close to loving them in this low inflation environment. the latest year over year cpi was 2.7%- not sure i'd consider that low any more. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month Un- a...
by grok87
Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!
Replies: 34
Views: 3865

Re: Bought my first individual TIPS, now I am in love!

TheTimeLord wrote:I bought my first individual TIPS as part of my liability matching for my pre-SS retirement years and now I think I am love. Any other BH as enthusiastic about TIPS as part of liability matching as I am? Or do you think they are going to break my heart?

I'm a tips enthusiast
by grok87
Thu Mar 16, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt
Replies: 169
Views: 35901

Re: 10 Reasons why Merriman dislikes Total Stock Mkt

... We all know that we cannot make any assumptions about which specific asset class or style will perform in the future but one and only one: that the domestic and world economies will grow and so will our equity portfolios. I just stumbled upon this thread. It makes sense to me that it's likely i...
by grok87
Sun Mar 12, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 6961

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

Yield doesn't tell the whole story -- withdrawal rates also account for capital gains in addition to dividends and interest. Also, withdrawal rates are defined by using the single worst retirement timeframe we can find for a given portfolio. It's true that there's no guarantee your own retirement w...
by grok87
Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 6961

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

The condition that we are choking on is taking income and ending up with as much money as when one started. It also makes a great deal of difference whether or not one expects these amounts to be in real dollars. That's totally understandable, and it's why perpetual withdrawal rates are important. ...
by grok87
Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 6961

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

I am new to this forum, and not a savvy investor. I am about to retire (1 month) and my strategy is to take the lump sum (~$2M) to invest and live off the interest, while preserving the principal to pass onto my heirs. I'm 61.5 years old. Any advice as to how I can get this accomplished, without pa...
by grok87
Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Retirement Plan Criticism
Replies: 9
Views: 1152

Re: Need Retirement Plan Criticism

1) i would maybe only do the 6% contribution in the 401k (to get the match) instead of the 10% and use the extra take home pay to pay down that credit card debt Agreed. 2) So based on your post I guess your current combined income is about $170k? Let's say you want to guarantee $70 k of inflation p...
by grok87
Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Retirement Plan Criticism
Replies: 9
Views: 1152

Re: Need Retirement Plan Criticism

so a couple of thoughts: 1) i would maybe only do the 6% contribution in the 401k (to get the match) instead of the 10% and use the extra take home pay to pay down that credit card debt 2) So based on your post I guess your current combined income is about $170k? Let's say you want to guarantee $70 ...
by grok87
Tue Mar 07, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need Suggested Asset Allocation For 401K
Replies: 3
Views: 229

Re: Need Suggested Asset Allocation For 401K

I currently have $200,000 in a Solo 401k. It is not invested. Sit's completely in cash. I plan to get this invested as soon as possible. I plan to roll it into Vanguard. Why them? Because I need to make a decision and can't find a reason not to. I definitely suffer with analysis paralysis. I am 36 ...
by grok87
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy municipal bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1151

Re: How to by municipal bonds

A few things to note. Transaction costs (overt and hidden) can be very high on individual municipal bonds. Read a little on it and you'll learn how much he deck can be stacked against you as an individual investor dealing in (relatively) small amounts. You definitely don't get the efficiencies that...
by grok87
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swensen - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?
Replies: 11
Views: 1172

Re: Swenson - Why does he recommend Emerging Markets and Developed Markets for Int'l?

Regarding total bond vs TIPS + treasuries, Swensen recommends taking all the risk in stocks (no corporate or muni bonds), with TIPS protection vs inflation, treasuries vs deflation (I think). My portfolio is in Swensen allocation. It was depressing, I must say, that for last week the S and P 500 wa...
by grok87
Tue Feb 28, 2017 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

i think what the article is saying is that we haven't seen a good combination of stock prices this high and long term bond yields this high in a while. one way to see this is to graph the product of the S&P 500 and the 30 year (nominal) treasury yield. the interpretation of this product would b...
by grok87
Tue Feb 28, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

The stock market is up. Long term interest rates are up. Time to sell some stocks and start building that 30 year tips ladder? Inflation protection for 30 years with a real fully taxable yield of less than 1%? Unless you are both extremely risk averse and very wealthy, the answer to this question i...
by grok87
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

Have LT Tips rates really moved up? it's a good point. From mid year 2016 lows 30 year tips are up like 33 bp whereas nominal treasuries are up about 85 bps. The 30-year TIPS yield may be higher than it was six months ago, but it's lower than it was one year ago. It's also come down a lot from the ...
by grok87
Mon Feb 27, 2017 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

alec wrote:Have LT Tips rates really moved up?

it's a good point. From mid year 2016 lows 30 year tips are up like 33 bp whereas nominal treasuries are up about 85 bps.
by grok87
Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1146

"2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

... http://www.plansponsor.com/MagazineArticle.aspx?id=6442522166 ... See figure 1. Ok the article is about pension funding, but really the same issues for individual retirement investors. The stock market is up. Long term interest rates are up. Time to sell some stocks and start building that 30 ye...
by grok87
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel Reservations
Replies: 18
Views: 1590

Re: Hotel Reservations

I've never used the bidding sites cause i am kind of fussy about where i stay. I read tripadvisor a lot etc. One thing i do value is being able to cancel for free on day of arrival. It's frustrating that the two major chains, hilton and marriot, no longer allow that. I've started using holiday inn/i...
by grok87
Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 118
Views: 18735

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

FreeAtLast wrote:To me, his triple play combination of expertise, rationality and patience serves as an exemplar to emulate in one's life.

+1
by grok87
Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New work 401k options
Replies: 4
Views: 335

Re: New work 401k options

I think the OP's choices are just fine.

As per morningstar, the vanguard small cap fund is actually 43% in midcaps.

Go figure huh!
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 2338

Re: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?

The location % of your assets will vary based on the withdrawal rate, filing status for taxes, other possible itemized deductions. For me it is simple as I file married/joint and take the standard exemptions of 15,100 (over 65 taxpayers) plus 8100 personal exemptions for total of 23,200.00 before a...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: fidelity equivalent of vanguard total international bond index?
Replies: 11
Views: 892

Re: fidelity equivalent of vanguard total international bond index?

the two funds track slightly different indexes. the barclays one caps any one issuer or government at 10% whereas the vanguard caps at 10%. the vanguard one is float adjusted whereas the barclays one is not. i don't think the 10% vs. 20% cap is that material going forward- it relates mostly to Japan...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?
Replies: 45
Views: 2338

Re: Is there ideal Asset LOCATION % as you get closer to retirement?

Hi all, There's a lot of discussion about asset allocation as you build up you assets, and how to slowly get more conservative as you get closer to your retirement. I know that asset location is discussed also - that tax deferred are preferred to help grow your portfolio. But, tax diversification i...
by grok87
Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for mattress in the NJ area
Replies: 6
Views: 352

Re: Looking for mattress in the NJ area

I was researching some of the threads here and went to Mattress Underground. It seems to be clear that one should avoid the majors. The dilemma is to find reputable stores in my area and actually "test-drive" them. Anyone have store to recommend in the NJ area, preferably central? Budget ...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

I don't actually view TIPS as investing. It is simply to preserve the value of what you already have. As long as YTM is 0% or higher, It's like cash without inflation. If you have $10,000 and want to be able to buy $10,000 worth of stuff in 30 years, put it into TIPS. [OT comment removed by admin L...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

just a warning that bloomberg is currently messed up in its display of the 30 year tips. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us Currently it shows: Coupon 0.88 (i.e. 0.875) price 102.04 yield 0.90% Obviously the math doesn't work. If a 30 year bond with a 0.875% coupon tra...
by grok87
Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

John Bull can stand many things but he cannot stand 2%. Cheers, wbond nice reference http://www.economist.com/node/17043652 Buttonwood Another paradox of thrift Why low interest rates could also encourage saving Sep 16th 2010 “JOHN BULL can stand many things but he cannot stand two per cent.” That ...
by grok87
Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Results are in: 0.923%. This is a better outcome than i was hoping for. Looks like the auction "tailed" significantly by say 4 bp. That means that the Auction yield was 4 bp higher than the secondary market yield of the on-the-run issue (0.88%) in the run up to the auction. Interesting. It...
by grok87
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Uggh.
Secondary yield for 29 year tip now at 0.88%.
Looks like inflation protection is in demand after yesterdays CPI numbers.
I'm guessing the auction yield today will be below 0.9%

Uggh
I'm leaving my order as is though...
by grok87
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

We have had very low inflation for a while 2016 1.26% 2015 0.12% 2014 1.62% 2013 1.47% 2012 2.07% 2011 3.16% 2010 1.64% 2009 -0.34% 2008 3.85% 2007 2.85% 2006 3.24% 2005 3.39% 2004 2.68% 2003 2.27% 2002 1.59% 2001 2.83% 2000 3.38% But it sounds to me that people in the know are expecting higher inf...
by grok87
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Agree. At this point i'm hoping for 0.95%, even 1% seems well out of reach.
by grok87
Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Angst wrote:
grok87 wrote:Secondary yield is now down to 0.95% so i'm hoping for 1.05% now at auction...

Hi grok,
I too am in for a 1/3 of my annual purchase. Rates appear to be climbing back up a bit today, which is promising. Where exactly were you looking last week for that 0.95% secondary yield?
Angie

Bloomberg
by grok87
Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with daughter's $100
Replies: 73
Views: 4215

Re: What to do with daughter's $100

If you decide to invest the $100 MyRA is pretty close to ideal for this type of small savings. Good observation! The OP may also be interested in this kiplinger article on great funds for under $500. Apparently charles schwab has a target date fund with a $100 minimum. http://www.kiplinger.com/arti...
by grok87
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX
Replies: 2
Views: 525

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX

Hello, I am 68 years old and about two months away from retirement. I plan to roll my 401K at VOYA to a Vanguard rollover IRA. My goal was to find a fund or funds that I can purchase that would let me draw 4% a year with a reasonable expectation this would last me for life and leave something for m...
by grok87
Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 1052

Re: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?

The main reason Japanese GDP growth seems low relative to other developed markets is negative population growth. Per capita GDP growth is in line with other markets. good point. see this reference http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY. ... desc=false there is a school of thought, to bring this bac...
by grok87
Sun Feb 12, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 1052

Re: Fukushima meltdown a stressor on Japanese economy?

The main reason Japanese GDP growth seems low relative to other developed markets is negative population growth. Per capita GDP growth is in line with other markets. good point. see this reference http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY. ... desc=false there is a school of thought, to bring this bac...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 3984

Re: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?

I wouldn't want to make an investment just so it declines less than the stock market. I want it to actually work for me in terms of earnings. It seems like I could very well come out ahead with just cash on hand at the moment. I just don't see how bonds are attractive during periods of low interest...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 3984

Re: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?

Well instead of total bond market, the US bond index, why not a total world bond index? You could make one out of vanguard funds... Isn't it always right, according to economic theory, to hold some sort of unhedged global cap weighted portfolio? Well no. No it isn't! it turns out that that's only th...
by grok87
Fri Feb 10, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 34
Views: 3640

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

Shrewd people here (Grok87 I am looking at you!) piled in at real yields of 3.0% ish (price falls, yield rises). Made out like bandits. We've never seen real yields anything like that since. Thanks Valuethinker, that's very kind. I think you are perhaps referring to this thread? https://www.boglehe...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 385

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

That makes sense, thanks. I did not realize that there were that large swings in intermediate treasury prices. Is it possible for the VFIUX fund price to rise that significantly with interest rates as they stand today (historically low), though? Would the price of VFIUX (vs a CD at 3%) also shoot u...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 385

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

I'll rephrase my question about CDs in the hopes that somebody will bite: Would a 7 year CD at 3% with 6 month EWP serve the same purpose (protection against deflation or market downturn) at no higher risk and with better expected return than an intermediate treasury fund such as VFIUX? Or are they...
by grok87
Thu Feb 09, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 385

Re: Help / Question about Swensen portfolio

Hello All, Relatively new to the forum and so impressed with all the knowledge that is so readily shared! I recently invested about 1.6 M split equally in taxable and IRA with Vanguard. Decided on using the Swensen Lazy Portfolio. My holdings ( percentages are percent of the 1.6M): Taxable: Vanguar...
by grok87
Wed Feb 08, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

spin_echo wrote:Thanks Grok - I have a 403b but can only buy mutual funds within it

what about ibonds?

can you buy ETFs in your 403B? if you can, then there is LTPZ which holds long term tips.
by grok87
Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Grok - would you buy if you only could buy in your taxable? I vaguely remember Nisperius saying that the taxes became complicated. I am in the 33% tax bracket. Thanks .... i probably wouldn't buy 30 year tips in taxable. maybe the 5 years. the main point of 30 year tips, for me, is to fund retireme...
by grok87
Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4046

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Secondary yield is now down to 0.95% so i'm hoping for 1.05% now at auction. You can start placing your orders on thursday.
by grok87
Tue Feb 07, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any good alternative to TIPS in taxable account?
Replies: 15
Views: 897

Re: Any good alternative to TIPS in taxable account?

Do you have any tax-advantaged space where you can put TIPS? I built a TIPS ladder to bridge from early retirement to SS at 70. What worked for me was to put most of it in my traditional IRA and leave equity mutual funds in taxable. The plan is to sell some of the equity funds around the time the T...
by grok87
Mon Feb 06, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5552

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I called Vanguard this morning to inquire why all Principal life annuity quotes, including real life annuities, now show up as N/A. The annuity specialist at Vanguard told me that as of last week Vanguard no longer works with Principal, but the technical issues have not been resolved in showing quo...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5552

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

it feels like a market failure to me. i don't really understand it. insurance companies can easily hedge their risk in issuing inflation protected annuities by buying TIPs. i just don't get it. But what do they do about the risk of annuitant pool being more long-lived than usual. They can take this...
by grok87
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5552

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

What I find hilarious is how the option to buy an Inflation-Indexed SPIA just quietly disappeared. Did any retirement expert say if you were planning to buy one you better get it before they run out? There was no announcement by anyone that a deadline was coming up. Nope, just suddenly one day the ...

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