Search found 7059 matches

by grok87
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2928

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

Italy is the world's eighth largest economy, for what it's worth. It is also the world's 4th largest government bond market, which is perhaps more of a concern. Oh no - I'm underweight dodgy Italian debt! I have to catch up on my market cap weighted bond holdings, or at least that's what some CAPM ...
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2928

Re: Euro slides as Italy Votes No

lgs88 wrote:Italy is the world's eighth largest economy, for what it's worth.

cheap time to visit with the euro at 1.05
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Euro slides as Italy Votes No
Replies: 18
Views: 2928

Euro slides as Italy Votes No

... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-04/euro-slides-as-exit-polls-show-italy-voted-no-in-referendum ... https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures ... Euro at 1.05 S&P futures down 0.5% "The euro fell as initial projections showed a lead for the “no” campaign in Italy’s...
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 2201

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

He says that what happened in Japan could happen in the US and that Japan had a lot of similar positive characteristics such as work ethic, productivity and innovation to the US before their market crash. page 58. Interesting. How is that interesting or new? Just because Mr. Bogle says so now? Home...
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 2201

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

investorguy1 wrote:
He says that what happened in Japan could happen in the US and that Japan had a lot of similar positive characteristics such as work ethic, productivity and innovation to the US before their market crash. page 58.

Interesting.
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity customers vote with their dollars
Replies: 5
Views: 1236

Re: Fidelity customers vote with their dollars

Just noticed this Bloomberg article . The biggest stock mutual fund at Fidelity Investments, a firm that made its reputation picking stocks, is now an index fund. The Fidelity 500 Index Fund ended November with $105.9 billion in assets, passing the previous leader, Fidelity Contrafund, which had $1...
by grok87
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?
Replies: 37
Views: 2476

Re: Vanguard ETFs Less Tax Efficient Than Other ETFs?

Where this does consistently show up as an issue with is their fixed income ETFs. For example, scroll down to the bottom of this list. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/preliminary-capital-gains-112016 The iShares or Schwab equivalents of these funds never have such distributions. t...
by grok87
Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

... it shows a deflation bonus of $737 million for the January 2017 maturity calculated as follows: 737 = 17250 * (1 - 0.95729) where $17,250 million is the face value issued and 0.95729 is the index ratio after a 20% fall in the CPI. ... i think the 17,250 M is the original face. i think we want t...
by grok87
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

abuss368 wrote:Anyone aware of the performance difference between short term bond index and short term TIPS? I would expect the index to not have as much inflation risks.

for the month of november the short term bond index was down -0.92% while the short term tips index was down -0.52%
by grok87
Sat Dec 03, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Could i ask you to ... check the 13.8% deflation bonus for the 0-5 tips index under the 20% deflation shock? You can see how I get it by looking at the "Maybe Bonus" column of the detail table in my post above . For example it shows a deflation bonus of $737 million for the January 2017 m...
by grok87
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.
Replies: 46
Views: 5346

Re: Forget the 4% safe withdrawal rule -- use RMDs instead.

I would say that the longer I invest and watch older relatives the more I dislike complicated schemes... http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/268710-people-always-live-for-ever-when-there-is-an-annuity “people always live for ever when there is an annuity to be paid them” - Jane Austen (Sense and Sensib...
by grok87
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Grok, your assertion that a longer term TIPS fund is more likely to benefit from deflation than is a short term TIPS fund suffers from a couple of conceptual errors... Hi #cruncher, Thanks for doing the math- dare i say, "crunching the numbers"! :) I like your approach of looking at vario...
by grok87
Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What we should know before buying Long-term Treasury, LT Corporate Bonds, High-yield Corporate Bonds fund index and etf?
Replies: 11
Views: 1009

Re: What we should know before buying Long-term Treasury, LT Corporate Bonds, High-yield Corporate Bonds fund index and

Well i got the data from barclAys live which is a subscription site. There is some data here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBBEY And i think one could verify the dAta at least in terms of the chAnge in spread by comparing the vanguArd long term corporate bond fund to the long term trea...
by grok87
Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 208
Views: 17088

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

I had another go at the parser's robustness, and it's less likely to fail from here on. No thanks are due the new Yahoo Finance engine, which (a) now ships 1-5MB per quote when I need less than 10 bytes of data back, i.e. overhead is 99.999%+ and (b) fails silently on 1-2% of requests no matter wha...
by grok87
Thu Dec 01, 2016 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What we should know before buying Long-term Treasury, LT Corporate Bonds, High-yield Corporate Bonds fund index and etf?
Replies: 11
Views: 1009

Re: What we should know before buying Long-term Treasury, LT Corporate Bonds, High-yield Corporate Bonds fund index and

1. Are we required to keep shares of fund index or ETF of Long-term Treasury (such as TLT or VUSTX), Long-term Corporate Bonds (such as VCLT) for 10+ years? Otherwise would lead to some penalty ? 2. What cost and fees need to be considered? Negative interest rate? Tax? 3. I read several posts here ...
by grok87
Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 11140

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

nisiprius wrote:Oh, please.

And if I look at 1928-present, I see one period of time during which small-cap value lost 89% of its value, and the number of times that's happened to large-cap blend is never.

+1
by grok87
Tue Nov 29, 2016 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 208
Views: 17088

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Mudpuppy wrote:
grok87 wrote:
Norbert Schlenker wrote:S'dun.

looks like it may be busted again?

At least it's a different bug this time... most tickers are parsing out to 0 as the current value.

yup
by grok87
Mon Nov 28, 2016 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Just to put things into perspective: According to PortfolioVisualizer , $10,000 invested in a total-market TIPS index ETF (TIP) in January 2007 dropped to $10,421 from a top of $11,815, a 12% drop , whereas $10,000 invested in a total-market U.S. Stock index ETF (VTI) in January 2007 dropped to $5,...
by grok87
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

A lot of the discussion here and on other FI threads, use the phrase "if held to maturity" but many investors and probably most bond funds sell there bonds before maturity. Morningstar and Vanguard are reporting Vg's short term TIPS fund to be all 1-5 years. Less than one year - zero. Thi...
by grok87
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

For TIPS i'm not so sure. I think the ladder is better. It let's you control deflation risk by only buying newly issued tips at auction or secondary market tips that have low inflation factors (and hence low deflation risk. TIPS have no deflation risk. Maybe a better way to say what grok87 is sayin...
by grok87
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

A lot of the discussion here and on other FI threads, use the phrase "if held to maturity" but many investors and probably most bond funds sell there bonds before maturity. Morningstar and Vanguard are reporting Vg's short term TIPS fund to be all 1-5 years. Less than one year - zero. Thi...
by grok87
Sat Nov 26, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The recent bond market sell-off has shown one of the advantages of the Vanguard Short Term TIps fund (VTAPX): less risk during a period of rising interest rates: Short term bonds won't fall as much during a period of rising interest rates. Less risk of principal loss. Short term bonds won't rise as...
by grok87
Sat Nov 26, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The recent bond market sell-off has shown one of the advantages of the Vanguard Short Term TIps fund (VTAPX): less risk during a period of rising interest rates: Short term bonds won't fall as much during a period of rising interest rates. Less risk of principal loss. Short term bonds won't rise as...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

I guess this is why one should try to purchase newly issued TIPS or TIPS with a very low inflation factor. It is one thing to gain in and inflation scenario and then give back in a following deflation scenario. It is quite another (ugly) thing to buy TIPS that are loaded up with a high inflation fa...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Doc wrote:Not grok but I do speak Martian. With deflation the adjusted "par " value of the bond goes down. Since it doesn't go below 100 recent issues are protected. But if you are holding an aged issue there will be a nominal loss and that inturn could effect the market price. (See above.)

yep.
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Two recent events have shaken my deflation scenario. First was a 41% increase in my medical insurance premiums, I will take some time to shop around and check alternatives. Second was a recent 15% increase in the dues of my Home Owner's Association to pay for capital projects and maintenance that h...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

If deflation should occur, my nominal bond funds and CDs will make up for any loss in the TIPS fund. IMO it is a mistake to consider one asset class in isolation. What happens to one's entire portfolio is what matters. Good point. I agree about not looking at asset classes in isolation. As posted a...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

So what should one do if one is trying to limit (or manage) both interest rate risk and deflation risk? Grok, What do you mean by deflation risk? As far as I know, TIPS preserve the purchase value of their coupons and principal. As such, they have no inflation (or deflation) risk. That's their main...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The bond market seems to be signaling an uptick in inflation. I am less concerned about deflation today than I was three weeks ago. I have no plans to change my TIPS fund holdings. My credo is "nobody knows nothing" http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/457097-nobody-knows-anything-not-one-pers...
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

jalbert wrote:I think grok's post was concerned with measuring risk, not with predicting the future.

exactly.
by grok87
Fri Nov 25, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Re: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

Vipsx/vaipx also has an 8.4 year duration which gives it a much higher sensitivity to interest rate movements, which I would think is likely to offset much of the deflation risk. I agree that the regular tips fund vipsx has the longer duration ("real" duration). I think of that as "r...
by grok87
Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation
Replies: 69
Views: 3564

Vanguard Short Term TIPs fund: Risk vs. Reward and deflation

The recent bond market sell-off has shown one of the advantages of the Vanguard Short Term TIps fund (VTAPX): less risk during a period of rising interest rates: 1 month returns @11/23/16 Vang. Short term tips -0.7% Vang. retular tips -2.3% Vang. bond index -3.0% But there's another risk investors m...
by grok87
Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:58 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A Thanksgiving to Remember
Replies: 12
Views: 2067

Re: A Thanksgiving to Remember

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
by grok87
Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 208
Views: 17088

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Norbert Schlenker wrote:S'dun.

looks like it may be busted again?
by grok87
Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

... So for example from 1927-2015 the small cap premium averaged 3.3% (i.e. on average small cap stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by 3.3% points). but this outperformance was higher in the high inflation years of 1941-1951 (small cap premium was 5.2%) and 1973-1982 (small cap premium was 8.7%). ...
by grok87
Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

During inflationary environments TIPS and high yield are expected to outperform other bond categories while SCV is expected to outperform in the equity space. Commodities also may benefit relative to other equity assets in an inflationary environment. Before we go running to change asset allocation...
by grok87
Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plan options for NJ residents working in NY
Replies: 12
Views: 726

Re: 529 Plan Interest accumulation investments in NY and NV

Grok: "To me this is an example of "returnless risk". The yield on this "Vanguard Interest Accumulation Portfolio" is a meager 1.06%. And one has to worry about insurance companies going bust. I'd rather take the 0.36% from the fidelity bank account as it is federally insur...
by grok87
Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it foolish to substitute a more aggressive fund in place of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 2609

Re: Is it foolish to substitute a more aggressive fund in place of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in a 3-fund portfol

Sure- many here choose to tilt toward small cap/small cap value. I wouldn't substitute your TSM fund with a SC fund though. Why not build a small cap position over time with new contributions in your 401K, Roth or Taxable account? A key error that new investors make is to performance chase--picking...
by grok87
Sun Nov 20, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

At least for me it is not clear whether November's asset price action is signal or noise. What November's action does demonstrate clearly is the importance of wide diversification yet again. Concentrating into a few asset classes based on expectations of where the economy and markets are going in t...
by grok87
Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it foolish to substitute a more aggressive fund in place of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 2609

Re: Is it foolish to substitute a more aggressive fund in place of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index in a 3-fund portfol

Sure- many here choose to tilt toward small cap/small cap value. I wouldn't substitute your TSM fund with a SC fund though. Why not build a small cap position over time with new contributions in your 401K, Roth or Taxable account? A key error that new investors make is to performance chase--picking...
by grok87
Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plan options for NJ residents working in NY
Replies: 12
Views: 726

Re: 529 Plan options for NJ residents working in NY

Thank you both for great perspective. Is Utah the best plan outside the state plans? Since I already have a vanguard account, Will I be able to buy Utah or NV plan through that? Any pros and cons between Utah and NV? I think the fidelity plans are worth a look. they recently lowered expense ratios....
by grok87
Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

What is missing from the bond fund category is actually what has been its best performer this month and that is the bank loan/floating rate sector. Albeit not all that much of an outperformer since its performance is based more on three month LIBOR rates which have been stagnant this month. thanks-...
by grok87
Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

Re: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

Interesting, but I don't understand your conclusions. So my conclusion was that the recent outperformance of TIPS, small cap value stocks and high yield bonds is due to the market repricing these assets in anticipation of a higher inflation environment where these assets typically outperform. Re th...
by grok87
Sat Nov 19, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plan options for NJ residents working in NY
Replies: 12
Views: 726

Re: 529 Plan options for NJ residents working in NY

Hi All, I live in NJ and work in NYC. I have two kids 2 and 6 that I want to start planning for their college. I would like to know which plan is the best for them. I have Fidelity for personal investments and Vanguard for my 401K. Does the NY Saves 529 plan allow for tax deductions to NJ residents...
by grok87
Sat Nov 19, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Valuethinker has surpassed 30,000 posts
Replies: 39
Views: 3134

Re: Valuethinker has surpassed 30,000 posts

Congratulations VT!
by grok87
Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!
Replies: 16
Views: 1972

November Returns: TIPs, Small Value, High Yield Rules!

So I thought it would be interesting to see how the various bond, stock and alternative funds have performed so far this month. Here is a summary using mostly Vanguard funds. The quick takeaway for me is that the market is now pricing in higher inflation and is less worried about deflation. All 3 of...
by grok87
Mon Nov 14, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to model TIPS rates (and returns) pre-1997
Replies: 56
Views: 2929

Re: How to model TIPS rates (and returns) pre-1997

For expected inflation, I would suggest considering using the historical data from the Philly Fed survey of professional forecasters. Here is a more direct link to what I think is of interest: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/hist...

Go to advanced search