Search found 6881 matches

by grok87
Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Asness on Fama on Momentum
Replies: 4
Views: 514

Re: AQR's Asness on Fama on Momentum

https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/fama-on-momentum Professor Fama, by dropping that “momentum tends to blow up every now and then,” is clearly implying momentum is very risky. thanks for the post. well here is the momentum factor from the ken french data library http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/p...
by grok87
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dual State Residency and local taxes
Replies: 8
Views: 343

Re: Dual State Residency and local taxes

Unlike being a dual national, I think it is only possible to be a resident of one state at a time. If you work in VA but live in PA, vote in PA and have a PA driver's license, car registration etc., then I think johnubc is correct: you are a PA resident and a VA non-resident. You can only be domici...
by grok87
Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
Replies: 53
Views: 4043

Re: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age

It would be foolish to use age as the sole variable when deciding your portfolio. +1 Agree. I respectfully disagree with Mr. Ellis's advice for most people. The trouble is it is basically hindsight bias. To be blunt, the perspective of an older successful gentleman looking back at his youth and say...
by grok87
Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

History says RE has its own cycle. One of booms and periodic crashes. New England in the early 1990s (and Toronto) comes to mind-- a lot of "see thrus" and unfinished buildings. For *years*. Right now low interest rates have driven up *every* income generating asset (and the market has fo...
by grok87
Mon Feb 01, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
Replies: 53
Views: 4043

Re: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age

It would be foolish to use age as the sole variable when deciding your portfolio. +1 Agree. I respectfully disagree with Mr. Ellis's advice for most people. The trouble is it is basically hindsight bias. To be blunt, the perspective of an older successful gentleman looking back at his youth and say...
by grok87
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

History says RE has its own cycle. One of booms and periodic crashes. New England in the early 1990s (and Toronto) comes to mind-- a lot of "see thrus" and unfinished buildings. For *years*. Right now low interest rates have driven up *every* income generating asset (and the market has fo...
by grok87
Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

I've been happy with 10-15% of my portfolio in TREA. It's performed reasonably well the past few years. I monitor the M* TIAA-CREF forum for information about TREA, from individuals who have much more experience and dollars invested than I do. Plus, I like to be able to tell my family that I do ind...
by grok87
Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

So yes the direct real estate returns appear to be slowing down. Yes, fine, but is it actionable? What should I do with my 9% of portfolio in TREA? :) At this level i am not taking any action. like oldzey i aim to keep my Tiaa real esate allocation to between 10-15% of my portfolio. For me that mea...
by grok87
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

Thanks for that analysis. To me issue is partly what else to do with TIAA RE money. Unlike the last downturn, which may have been a once-in-a-lifetime experience in terms of depth, duration, and consistency of price movement, today many of us are looking at a 1% alternative (in Traditional), not a ...
by grok87
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116982

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Hi Everyone, This is a very interesting thread. Thank you all for posting so much interesting info. I was convinced by Antti Ilmanen's Expected Returns that QSPNX/QSPIX is a worthwhile investment so I own it as 10% of my portfolio. Perhaps I missed a discussion on this topic but I was wondering if ...
by grok87
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2357

TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

TIAA Re Account Balance Sheet & performance (Jan) So let's start with the obvious. Fort the month of January the TIAA Re (ticker QREARX) rose 0.35%. Now that's only a one-month figure and it is of course totally wrong to extrapolate from that to an annual number. But I'm going to do it anyway. T...
by grok87
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116982

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Hi Everyone, This is a very interesting thread. Thank you all for posting so much interesting info. I was convinced by Antti Ilmanen's Expected Returns that QSPNX/QSPIX is a worthwhile investment so I own it as 10% of my portfolio. Perhaps I missed a discussion on this topic but I was wondering if ...
by grok87
Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 132
Views: 11203

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

There has been some incomplete, incorrect and/or misleading information posted in this discussion about US credit unions, safety of them and federal insurance. The FDIC insures customer deposits at banks (including savings banks) in the US. An FDIC member bank's deposits are backed up to at least $...
by grok87
Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents
Replies: 32
Views: 2860

Re: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents

I think in most states a real estate "agent" has to work under the supervision of a real estate "broker". However the hurdle to become a "broker" is usually just a few more education classes and the requisite years of experience (usually two or three) working as an age...
by grok87
Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents
Replies: 32
Views: 2860

Re: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents

To be brutally honest,the commission to sell a house in expensive locations is ridiculous.It is not the consumers problem that there are way too many agents which creates marketing and other expenses.I f I listed my home in the bay area tomorrow it would be sold in one weekend for 700,000 and for t...
by grok87
Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents
Replies: 32
Views: 2860

Re: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents

There is nothing wrong with negotiating a commission. Some Brokers will allow it and some won't. As a buyer and seller, I have always viewed real estate commissions as negotiable and have always tried to be aggressive in negotiating them. The lower the price point of the house in question, the hard...
by grok87
Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?
Replies: 132
Views: 11203

Re: Large amount of CDs maturing....what to do?

This is my go-to for CD info: https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/ There's a rumor Penfed will have a new 1.51% 15 month CD offering on 1/23: https://www.depositaccounts.com/blog/2016/01/cd-rates-summary-january-5-2016.html#1 I would split it up into a few Ally 5 year CDs and plan to break some if...
by grok87
Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents
Replies: 32
Views: 2860

Re: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents

Hello all. Are any Bogleheads here career real estate agents? Any words of wisdom? I am going for my license. There are definitely naysayers and discouraging words out there, saying that it's quite hard to become successful and make it a full-time job. But I have excellent drive and motivation. And...
by grok87
Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents
Replies: 32
Views: 2860

Re: Question for Bogleheads Real Estate Agents

Hello all. Are any Bogleheads here career real estate agents? Any words of wisdom? I am going for my license. There are definitely naysayers and discouraging words out there, saying that it's quite hard to become successful and make it a full-time job. But I have excellent drive and motivation. And...
by grok87
Sat Jan 16, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116982

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Isn't the zero correlation between factors and beta tautological (and thus meaningless)? You can go long/short anything and it will have zero correlation. I'm not impressed that QSPIX is uncorrelated to beta. I'm impressed that it exposes one to past sources of return (that ought to endure) in a di...
by grok87
Fri Jan 15, 2016 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 116982

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. The larger the value, momentum, and quality tilt you have on the equity side of your portfolio the higher the correlation of your equity holdings will be with QSPIX. As about 60% of QSPIX is essentially comprised of a positive load to value, momentum, and quality within equities, this should corr...
by grok87
Wed Jan 13, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7216

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

Read through back issues of Money and similar publications. Note: advice from ten years ago did not outperform, advice from 20 years ago did (for the next 10 years). This reminds me of this excellent cartoon that I saw posted on this forum recently (perhaps by Nisiprius?). https://xkcd.com/882/ Tha...
by grok87
Tue Jan 12, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7216

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

In the UK and Europe those figures are reversed - as of mid-2015: Europe 65% of active funds have outperformed over 5 years 70% over 10 years UK 70% outperformed over 3 years 72% over 5 years http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03255/PF-tracker-fund-gr_3255858a.jpg Now, with energy and mate...
by grok87
Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7216

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

My advice to any newbies reading this thread is to be incredibly suspicious of any investment recommendation that deviates from the Boglehead principles. This is not a matter of dogma, but rather of a time-proven and logically coherent philosophy that actually works for regular people like you. Of ...
by grok87
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7216

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

My advice to any newbies reading this thread is to be incredibly suspicious of any investment recommendation that deviates from the Boglehead principles. This is not a matter of dogma, but rather of a time-proven and logically coherent philosophy that actually works for regular people like you. Of ...
by grok87
Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7216

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

Looking at Morningstar's chart, so long as you pay attention to fees, being in active or passive funds would have made no material difference .. I agree this is something often overlooked. Averaged over time a well diversified (as in across the market without any particular tilt) low turn-over port...
by grok87
Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4219

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Congrats to all, and especially protagonist for his prescient short of SALT (down 25% in just a week). Despite the overall long bias of the entries, all but 3-4 entires are beating the benchmark (VTI). Who's ready to start their own fund? :) well... i personally have always thought VTI was the wron...
by grok87
Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 3239

Re: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?

Yes, you're right! I left out 2008 :oops: It's table 12-4, p. 150, 2010 Ibbotson SBBI Classic Yearbook, "Largest Declines in U.S. Stock Market History (in real total return terms, from January 1871 to June, 2009." The 2008 decline wasn't in there because it wasn't over yet :oops: The tabl...
by grok87
Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 3239

Re: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?

There are crashes, and you are almost certain to encounter some in an investing lifetime. There is no reliable pattern, any more than there is a pattern to how often there are wars, or how often a horse will win the Triple Crown. This is a list of the biggest stock market declines since 1870, all b...
by grok87
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1366

Re: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?

yeah it is really hard to figure out what is going on here and how Vanguard is looking at this. my understanding, from reading the various posts, is that there are effectively 3 classes of mutual funds going forward: 1) Government money market: same deal as pre-crisis. stable $1 NAV. unrestricted ac...
by grok87
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 3239

Re: Has it been a crash every 7-10 years?

PD: This article and not my friend concern me most to be honest, but I still feel confident to buy and hold after hearing your comments. Anyways; What is your opinion on it? http://seekingalpha.com/article/3796226-2016-recession-imminent?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget Well i read the...
by grok87
Fri Jan 08, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS
Replies: 74
Views: 5215

Re: Amazon Prime Shipping Issues since move from UPS to USPS

I placed several orders in early December. Amazon has bundled them into different shipments. Two of these shipments have not arrived by middle December and I contacted Amazon. It was a hassle to file separate claims on items from different orders missing in consolidated shipments, but after I finis...
by grok87
Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1366

Re: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?

Well my best guess is the second half of 2016.
They probably want to wait till there are a couple more fed rate increases. And they probably don't want to muddy the waters with everyone being switched over to the federal money market right now...
by grok87
Thu Jan 07, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA CREF Bond Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 384

Re: TIAA CREF Bond Fund

Hi gang. I'm a long time lurker who has benefited enormously from this website and its many knowledgeable and helpful members. I have studied stocks and markets carefully for about a decade, but I have learned more --and more that is of great value-- from this site than any other resource. I drive ...
by grok87
Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1366

When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?

Seems like now that the fed has raised rates this should be happening...
by grok87
Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PenFed CD ALERT !
Replies: 10
Views: 3324

Re: PenFed CD ALERT !

Talked to PenFed CSR yesterday & she said they may be raising their CD rates on January 23. What do you think - 2, 2.5, 3 % ? Hope so. I just called PenFed about this ^ CD rate increase. I have 3 PenFed CDs maturing this week. So I too was so hopeful for a PenFed January special, just like the ...
by grok87
Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4219

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Just why are you encouraging people to watch the markets closely . Don`t you think making fictitious trades eventually encourages folks to trade? This website in my opinion is supposed to teach and encourage people to invest sensibly. As you may surmise I am disappointed. I've been running this con...
by grok87
Sun Jan 03, 2016 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 31514

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

LadyGeek wrote:Heads up! The 2016 hedge fund contest is up and running: 2016 hedge fund contest

The deadline is tomorrow (Monday), so act quickly.

thanks LadyGeek!
by grok87
Sun Jan 03, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4219

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

name: consternatio partners

longs
CRUS
AMD
PBF

shorts
WMC
TROX
TK

thanks
by grok87
Sat Jan 02, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 31514

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Is there a 2016 contest? Hopefully Norbert will be up for another year. For those looking for promising stocks this weekend, the link below is the current Russell 3000 list (as of mid-2015 when they last updated it). http://www.russell.com/documents/indexes/membership/membership-russell-3000.pdf th...
by grok87
Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..
Replies: 501
Views: 105688

Re: 30 year TIPs yield at 1.98%- back up the truck, beep, beep..

letsgobobby wrote:update?

well the next auction is in february. I think the current 1.30% real yield is attractive...
by grok87
Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 646
Views: 14463

Re: REGISTRATION FOR THE 2016 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

* Bogleheads are better "guessers" than Wall Street professional "forecasters": The average Boglehead "guess" was 1958.40. The average professional "forecast" was 1949.14. Hi Taylor, I think the above numbers may be wrong. as per the 2015 contest website i am...
by grok87
Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 227
Views: 31514

Re: Bogleheads 2015 Hedge Fund Contest

Wow! Thanks for posting the results. Let me see, (eight place) with a solid 24.2% gain. Lowest Rated Fund (cfs) +24.2 Now, if I could replicate this with my retirement mutual funds !!! Wishing everyone a productive 2016. congrats to gatorman and cfs for being in the top 10 with 6 out of 6 bets right!
by grok87
Thu Dec 31, 2015 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST LEADERS
Replies: 53
Views: 4086

Re: 2015 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST WINNER

Bogleheads: Victoria out-guessed 536 Boglehead contestants and 15 Wall Street professional forecasters. It is notable that 41 Bogleheads out-guessed the best 15 professional forecasters. I've sent a PM to Victoria about winning the contest and where to mail her book prizes. For those who don't know...
by grok87
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!
Replies: 71
Views: 8466

Re: TIPS Fund is Getting Hammered!

All I know is that Mr. Bogle never mentions the need for TIPS in a long term portfolio. It's my thinking that company profits will rise with inflation since they can raise their prices, so stock prices will eventually reflect inflationary pressure, and I thought stocks over the long term earn a few...
by grok87
Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LEAPs: December 2018 for SPY- when?
Replies: 10
Views: 1049

Re:

I think these were added today. -g$$ Thanks. Kind of mysteriously added huh! Yah..., I don't completely understand why they were added this month. Anyway, now that we have them i suppose it's time to roll over my LEAPs into December 2018. Woohoo! sounds like you are doing something similar to me. b...
by grok87
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LEAPs: December 2018 for SPY- when?
Replies: 10
Views: 1049

Re: LEAPs: December 2018 for SPY- when?

g$$ wrote:I think these were added today.

-g$$

Thanks. Kind of mysteriously added huh!
by grok87
Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1433
Views: 273641

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Hayden wrote:I saw Star Wars on IMAX in 3D. I recommend seeing it that way if it's available to you.

i saw it in regular 3-d and liked it
by grok87
Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1433
Views: 273641

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

canderson wrote:Sisters has some very funny moments but generally is awful and often repulsive. Very disappointed Fey abd Poehler accepted that script for their big duet.

well they already co-starred together in Baby Mama

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