Search found 7387 matches

by grok87
Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 4361

Re: Crazy(?) Adviser Advice: "I don't believe in bonds"

The problem with a lot of the thinking about stock risk is that: 1) It looks at mostly the US experience 2) It looks at the two or so most recent crashes: 2001-2003 and 2007-2009 From 1990 to 2003 the Nikkei (Japanese stock index) declined from 38.9 k to 7.8 k. That's an 80% decline over 13 years. T...
by grok87
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

With a 30 year inflation breakeven of 1.84%, the TIPS seemed like a very good value and possibly helped drive demand. I have no evidence to actually indicate that this is what people were thinking, but it should be good enough analysis to get me on CNBC. :D Congrats again for calling the auction! L...
by grok87
Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"
Replies: 24
Views: 3359

Re: "10 Reasons Why Advisers Struggle To Keep Client Portfolios Simple"

I don't think it's mostly client driven, rather it's predominately adviser driven. Many advisers make portfolios complex to make investing seem difficult and complex. Because if their clients did indeed figure out how simple it is, they would ask why they need an expert to do it for them. Plus chur...
by grok87
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Yep

Congrats stlutz

Looks like there is a suprising amount of demand for long dated tips

I'm wondering if pension plans are moving to derisking (ie buy long dated tips) as they may feel that stock market valuations are somewhat high.
by grok87
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Well secondary mkt yield is now 0.91% so 1% very unlikely at tomorrow's auction. I'm now hoping for 0.95% Auction rates are generally a little lower than secondary markets (due to liquidity). .90% is a more realistic hope. it can go either way.if the auction yield is higher than the secondary marke...
by grok87
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2491

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

i have never understood this fund. as i think other's have pointed out it seems to run with a duration a year or more less than its target index. and the way interest rates have gone the past say 10 years that means it has underperformed it's index. i am in the camp that there is no good reason for ...
by grok87
Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

I've never been too concerned that I might not live long enough to take full advantage of a TIPS portfolio that takes me to year 100, but I would be concerned that I might outlive my TIPS if they only went to age 90. And if I (or my trusty nurses) begin to believe that I'm circling the drain sooner...
by grok87
Wed Jun 21, 2017 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Well secondary mkt yield is now 0.91% so 1% very unlikely at tomorrow's auction.

I'm now hoping for 0.95%
by grok87
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

To be fair, my TIAA-CREF rep hasn't been super helpful to date, although we've had limited interactions. Below is the exact email I sent him. I'm guessing he's going to want to chat on the phone, as seems to be his style. (The Fidelity rep seems much better about answering my questions promptly and...
by grok87
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Are TIPS still better hedge against real inflation? I am seeing most people just use rental property investment. I do have ibonds but not convinced how much tips or ibonds can protect with true inflation such as healthcare costs etc. Well commercial real estate declined by about 40% i think in the ...
by grok87
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Update: secondary market yield now 0.94% and price at 98.33
Still hoping for 1.0% or better at auction.
by grok87
Sun Jun 18, 2017 6:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Unexpected raise while househunting-- should I change my budget?
Replies: 17
Views: 1988

Re: Unexpected raise while househunting-- should I change my budget?

I've been house-hunting with the intention of keeping my monthly housing costs in line with what I'm currently paying in rent. I've been considering both condos and houses in the range of 360k - 500k (since my downpayment is flexible). However, I've just received a 25% raise (after having received ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Grok, Interesting idea, selling the later portion of your TIPS ladder to buy an annuity. And the points above underscoring the unpredictability of annuity rates well into the future are accurate. There are deferred inflation-linked annuities (DIAs) but I suspect that the product will be more widely...
by grok87
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Grok, It is sobering to say it, but: I'm just too old to buy 30-year TIPS anymore . . . My LMP ladder goes out to 85 but after that, it's going to be an annuity or something, depending on how the market forces and our health hold out. Hi ArtsDoctor, Fair enough. I'm also planning to annuiitze in my...
by grok87
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedged Intl Bonds: stupid question
Replies: 2
Views: 171

Re: Hedged Intl Bonds: stupid question

Vanguard international bond index fund is currency Hedged. If the US dollar falls, will the price and return of the fund increase due the currency hedging? the short answer is no. that's the point of currency hedging. it removes the risk of the funds returns being affected by currency fluctuations....
by grok87
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Grok, It is sobering to say it, but: I'm just too old to buy 30-year TIPS anymore . . . My LMP ladder goes out to 85 but after that, it's going to be an annuity or something, depending on how the market forces and our health hold out. Hi ArtsDoctor, Fair enough. I'm also planning to annuiitze in my...
by grok87
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

Those are the values on 6/16/2017. But the relevant figures are the ones on 6/30/2017, the date the TIPS will be issued. The index ratio on that date is 1.01287 and the adjusted accrued interest is $3.30512 per $1,000 face value. You can see these figures on either the auction announcement or on th...
by grok87
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

According to fidelity, indexed principal is now at $1,011.48 and accrued interest is $2.958. Those are the values on 6/16/2017. But the relevant figures are the ones on 6/30/2017, the date the TIPS will be issued. The index ratio on that date is 1.01287 and the adjusted accrued interest is $3.30512...
by grok87
Thu Jun 15, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

According to fidelity, indexed principal is now at $1,011.48 and accrued interest is $2.958. Those are the values on 6/16/2017. But the relevant figures are the ones on 6/30/2017, the date the TIPS will be issued. The index ratio on that date is 1.01287 and the adjusted accrued interest is $3.30512...
by grok87
Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

Re: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

DVMResident wrote:Why not iBonds over individual 30 yr TIPS in the face of rising interest rates? (assuming you need <$10/$20k/yr)

I'm already maxed out of ibonds. Plus ibonds real yield is still zero. I'm buying my tips in a tax deferred account.
by grok87
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?
Replies: 37
Views: 3499

30 yr TIPS auction 6/22: yield 1.0%?

30 yr tips auction 6/22: yield 1.0%? The next 30 year tips auction will be next thursday june 22nd. Based on the secondary market yield right now of 0.97% i'm hoping we'll get to an auction yield of 1% or more. I plan to buy- anyone else in? According to fidelity, indexed principal is now at $1,011....
by grok87
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

Not seeing the logic at all of starting at 10% and then selling after the investment drops to 7.5%. I think this has become way more complicated than it has to be. If you held through the down years - and remember there has really only been one widely recognized timing opportunity - I think you'd h...
by grok87
Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

Thank you, livesoft and grok87, for your replies. For now, I am planning to hold my entire 9-10% fixed income allocation in 3% guaranteed fully liquid GSRA traditional annuity, so no risk of loss per se with inflation. For TIAA real estate, what about the following guideline for a 10% allocation: -...
by grok87
Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

In unconventional success, david swensen argues for the following long-term portfolio: 30% us stocks 20% international stocks 20% real estate 15% treasuries 15% tips His argument is that, regardless of recent short term correlatiOns, these are distinct asset classes that give you the best shot at d...
by grok87
Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

In unconventional success, david swensen argues for the following long-term portfolio: 30% us stocks 20% international stocks 20% real estate 15% treasuries 15% tips His argument is that, regardless of recent short term correlatiOns, these are distinct asset classes that give you the best shot at di...
by grok87
Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

I've done two Systematic Transfers since the $150k rule was in effect. I had my WMAs assistant set it up. I was over the limit and wanted to put more in. I asked for a $15,000 transfer this Wednesday and the next two Wednesdays. Bingo, I had another $45k in TREA. Depending on the individual, you ma...
by grok87
Sun Jun 11, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?
Replies: 79
Views: 3801

Re: TREA/TIAA Real Estate - is investing without planning to "market time" ok?

As for TREA, the more you have in it as a percentage of your portfolio and/or as a dollar amount, the more you might want to consider keeping an eye on it with an exit strategy. I've been over 30% TREA but moved a bit into junk bonds recently and am now closer to 25%. I'm still over the $150k mark,...
by grok87
Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6747

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

I think the rationale for inflation being negatively correlated with population age makes sense. Retirees live off of the resources they have, and a younger workforce will generally be lower paid than a more experienced one. That would imply a tightening of monetary velocity, and as a result, decre...
by grok87
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6747

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Correlations aren't indicative of causality necessarily. Can you explain why a tightening labor force would lead to a decline in inflation as opposed to the opposite? Most economic research historically has considered inflation to be purely a monetary phenomenon. But with real live aging countries ...
by grok87
Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1127

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

A very interesting interview which I enjoyed. Thanks for posting. P.S. Grok87, you're scarin' me. :wink: sorry! :) I personally use 50% as a working rule of thumb. The amount i have in equities is 2x what i am willing to lose. For example, say I am willing to lose $100,000. That means I should have...
by grok87
Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6747

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

For those of us saving and investing in the 1970s, the loss of our financial assets to high inflation (5%-12% annually) made a strong impression. In his 2013 e-book, Deep Risk , William Bernstein identifies inflation as one of the most important threats of permanent capital loss (along with deflati...
by grok87
Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Bond Quotes
Replies: 2
Views: 463

Re: Vanguard Bond Quotes

I've also bought and sold bonds on the secondary market with Vanguard and have been impressed with their prices.
by grok87
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1127

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

I like his 150th percentile

By that he means an event that is 150% of the previous 100th percentile or max event.

That resonates with me. I think we need to be prepared for a scenario where the annual US stock return is -50% or worse. 2008 ws down 37% so 150% of that is -56%.
by grok87
Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financially independent and then market crashes?
Replies: 54
Views: 5809

Re: Financially independent and then market crashes?

I would suggest you read the Early Retirement Now blog on safe withdrawal rates. They discuss a number of factors that go into this decision. It is a 15 part series. I think you will find it enlightening. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-i...
by grok87
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle: "Balancing Professional Values and Business Values"
Replies: 8
Views: 1118

Re: John Bogle: "Balancing Professional Values and Business Values"

It's not everyone that can quote from a speech they gave 46 years ago! Yes, even firms whose ownership is held by their own principals and managers face conflicts of interest between their clients and themselves. But for 40 of the 50 largest fund managers that are publicly held or owned by financial...
by grok87
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7780

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

patriciamgr2 wrote:Thanks for the links; extremely helpful information. As Grok would say, Cheers!

:happy
by grok87
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP-3: Roll your own pension- Build a tips ladder!
Replies: 43
Views: 4548

Re: LMP-3: Roll your own pension- Build a tips ladder!

Attempting to build a 30 year TIPS ladder as a replacement for a pension is an inefficient expensive planning objective. It would be much more reasonable and inexpensive to build a 20 year TIPS ladder and leave extra assets for purchasing a longevity annuity that begins payouts in the 21st year. Yo...
by grok87
Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Biographies and Memoirs
Replies: 33
Views: 1737

Re: Favorite Biographies and Memoirs

I liked brookhiser's alexander hamilton biography

http://www.goodreads.com/review/show/364187354
by grok87
Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Academic Question on a real world situation
Replies: 34
Views: 2674

Re: Academic Question on a real world situation

I am trying to wrap my head around a safe withdrawal rate for retirement. I am about 8 years away from retirement and trying to get an idea of my situation. I don’t want to focus on my specific situation, so I am hoping to pose an “academic” question that represents my conundrum. The reason I am as...
by grok87
Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Academic Question on a real world situation
Replies: 34
Views: 2674

Re: Academic Question on a real world situation

Hate to be "that guy" but 4% of 750k is 30k which is 3% of 1 m not 3.3%
by grok87
Wed May 31, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LMP-3: Roll your own pension- Build a tips ladder!
Replies: 43
Views: 4548

Re: LMP-3: Roll your own pension- Build a tips ladder!

Hello all, First time caller, long time listener here... Does building a 30-year TIPS ladder over 30 years have a purpose outside of specific Liability Matching? For instance, say that the goal AA at the beginning of retirement is 40/60 stocks/bonds and a 50/50 fixed-income split between nominal, l...
by grok87
Wed May 31, 2017 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7152

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

Just to be clear, it could well be that the correlation between REITs and common stocks is a variable (I consider that a near certainty). So I would say this study should give you reason for concern if your assumption was that REITs would ALWAYS have correlations with common stocks below a certain ...
by grok87
Tue May 30, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2255

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

dodonnell wrote:Just make sure you don't confuse "Fair Value" with "Expected Returns"

How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013, bogleheads.org

since the middle of 2013, the average annual real return for reits was about 7%
by grok87
Tue May 30, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2255

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

David Swensen discusses REITs (and the REIT Index) in his book, Unconventional Success. He says, "...public market securities frequently trade at prices that deviate from fair value. Green Street advisors, a highly regarded research firm that concentrates on publicly traded real estate securit...
by grok87
Mon May 29, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7780

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Thanks. It's an interesting point about the CDs. My sense is that a few years ago one could perhaps make the argument that FDIC insured CDs were attractive relative to TIPS. But i think it is a different story now. 10 year CDs seem to be earning about 2.20% less than treasuries. Plus there are all ...
by grok87
Mon May 29, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 15332

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

...I think its important to have realistic market downside scenarios and test your plan against them. My current one is: what if global equities crashed by 50% and stayed down for 20 years. Oooh, that a tough (good) one. Twenty years - yeah, that really twists the knife. Yeah it's hard to know what...
by grok87
Mon May 29, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7780

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Here is a quote from Larry about the Larry Portfolio: The "LP" is the technical term for a portfolio that basically limits its stock holdings to the highest returning equity asset classes available to individual investors in low cost, passively managed investment vehicles - U.S. small val...
by grok87
Mon May 29, 2017 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 15332

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Well, I'm 30 years into it so no point in rehashing what I maybe coulda done decades ago. Certainly the leveraged high equity approach is one where the numbers can appear to work for someone with decades left to work, regardless of the source of the leverage. Since I was investing for a good 20 yea...
by grok87
Sun May 28, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 206
Views: 15332

Re: DON'T pay off your mortgage; instead reduce Sequence of Return Risk

Chip beat me to it. In a sense MT's timing (ironically) could not have been worse, though he could not have known that; but from an instructional point of view, it could not have been better. Yes, there are risks in leverage. But the idea to invest in higher-risk investments early is a good one (e....
by grok87
Sun May 28, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7780

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

You can look at the DFA Target Date Retirement funds as a model and then "bake your own" fund. A good fund group like Vanguard or Fidelity could provide the proxy funds in lieu of DFA funds to build your own portfolio. Basically, they are advocating a modified Larry Portfolio for retirees...

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