Search found 55 matches

by grayparrot
Sun May 21, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 61
Views: 4347

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

the main problem with this data, as Hussman, Grantham et al. point out, is that it leaves out adjustment for profit margins. Today's P/E ratios are based on some of the highest profit margins in the recorded data, and profit margins have a strong tendency to mean revert. Hence projections for retur...
by grayparrot
Sun May 21, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 61
Views: 4347

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

the main problem with this data, as Hussman, Grantham et al. point out, is that it leaves out adjustment for profit margins. Today's P/E ratios are based on some of the highest profit margins in the recorded data, and profit margins have a strong tendency to mean revert. Hence projections for return...
by grayparrot
Fri May 19, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4276

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

It may be the case that 100 year stock returns in Japan are positive - and it may remain true 100 years from now but the same cannot be said for Russian shareholders from 100 years ago (at least 100 years ago March). So, again, stocks do not always go up long term - there are no guarantees at all. ...
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4276

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

No, stocks do not always go up long term (either as individual stocks or even as broad indexes - see Japan). Yes, the S&P 500 changes over time to reflect changes in the overall economy as some companies and sectors go up and some down. I have a different take on this: stocks DO always go up &q...
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question for you high net worth individuals...
Replies: 72
Views: 7846

Re: Question for you high net worth individuals...

Several people in my family have made a lot of money in real estate over time. I did a bunch of analysis on their returns. You should divide "real estate" into two different categories of "investment". There's the various forms of speculating/improving/flipping/developing etc, an...
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab brokerage incentive $2,500 - - - thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 7164

Re: Schwab brokerage incentive $2,500 - - - thoughts?

that is a good one! I also did Schwab's advertised $200 for $25k, but you've got me beat on the % basis! I was going to transfer 50k recently to Merrill Edge for $250 bonus and to maintain platinum honors BoA status. Schwab rep just offered me $500 to transfer 50k in. Nothing published, but he said ...
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8670

Re: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?

the effectiveness of Kaiser sure is one of the very appealing aspects of California living! Yes, definitely. I plan to retire at 40ish on about a million. Withdrawal rate of 2.25%. Not a lavish lifestyle, but I'll be totally free!! I'd love to as well but the biggest obstacle I see is health insuran...
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8670

Re: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?

Not retired yet, but $50K from $2M is an extremely conservative plan. If you're really okay living on $50K, you're going to be just fine with any reasonable portfolio. That's a 2.5% withdrawal rate. conservative, true but also prudent in my view. I am personally persuaded by Hussman, Grantham, etc....
by grayparrot
Thu May 18, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab brokerage incentive $2,500 - - - thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 7164

E-Trade now at 40bps bonus for $250k

In case of interest to others, I called E-Trade and mentioned I was evaluating new brokerage platforms for a $250k new account. They have offered me $1000 as a bonus, which is among the more compelling on a percentage basis that I have seen.
by grayparrot
Wed May 03, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8670

Re: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?

No mention of if you have kids or not. If I look at my budget right now, Mortgage(not including property taxes and maintenance) and Health Ins take up nearly 45% of our 6k monthly budget. So, does your 80K include those two? Once they are taken care of, most of the other expenses are self controlle...
by grayparrot
Wed May 03, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?
Replies: 71
Views: 8670

have you accepted a lower cost lifestyle to retire early?

My DW and I are in our mid-40s, and thinking deeply about when we should give up a work life that allows healthy savings, but is taking a toll on body and mind. We live a modest but comfortable life (80k a year expenses) in an expensive large US metro area, and save $60k a year. Since our net saving...
by grayparrot
Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: independent life insurance reviews?
Replies: 2
Views: 258

Re: independent life insurance reviews?

We used James Hunt at http://www.evaluatelifeinsurance.org to evaluate our old VUL policy. We sent it to him and he was very helpful, spent over an hour with us on the phone explaining the details of the policy page by page, the pros and cons, how to decipher the insurance "code," made su...
by grayparrot
Fri Mar 31, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: independent life insurance reviews?
Replies: 2
Views: 258

independent life insurance reviews?

Hi, I seem to remember hearing folks like Clark Howard talking about an independent organization that, for a modest flat fee, will provide an independent review of an insurance policy/annuity and indicate whether it is worth keeping or not. But, my google skills have failed me and I can't find the a...
by grayparrot
Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Divesting to heirs. When and how quickly.
Replies: 45
Views: 4429

Re: Divesting to heirs. When and how quickly.

+1 to the comments about not ignoring time value of money. From personal experience, I can tell you that a 40 year old may feel it's quite unfair to get $1MM when his 19 year old sibling gets the same. The 19 year old, if acting prudently, should have THREE million at age 40, leading to a totally di...
by grayparrot
Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth
Replies: 102
Views: 5677

Re: Vehicles as a percentage of net worth

My car is 14 years old and represents 0.0012 of my net worth. That's down near Vanguard expense ratio territory :) I do admit that I have recently been tempted to upgrade. On occasion, professional contacts see my car and get a puzzled look on their faces. Although it's not right, I do feel that it ...
by grayparrot
Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone moved to another state for lower cost of living?
Replies: 56
Views: 7088

Re: Anyone moved to another state for lower cost of living?

I'm currently considering moving my official residency to either Nevada or Washington for a couple years, while I sell off a large low basis position. The move could be enough to offset most of my housing costs for the period. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
by grayparrot
Sat Jan 21, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab brokerage incentive $2,500 - - - thoughts?
Replies: 43
Views: 7164

Re: Schwab brokerage incentive $2,500 - - - thoughts?

I have gone back and forth on this in a sort of behavioral finance debate with myself. I have successfully received multiple $200-$1000+ bonuses to move anywhere from $50k to $500k. It is a small pain; they can often start the transfer automatically but you'll have to sign a form and mail it in. Als...
by grayparrot
Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?
Replies: 24
Views: 3416

Re: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?

Your parents already have a lot of Roth funds! Almost as much as in Roth as in tax-deferred. In fact, if you adjust for taxes and take into account the fact that the government "owns" 25% of their tax-deferred, their Roth balance is greater than their tax-deferred! There is something to b...
by grayparrot
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?
Replies: 24
Views: 3416

Re: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?

Not really enough detail. What is the yearly spending? What is the tax bracket of the children? I am not seeing a compelling case one way or the other, but I don't know all the details 1. When first spouse passes away, surviving spouse may be back up to the 25% bracket in spite of Roth conversions....
by grayparrot
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?
Replies: 24
Views: 3416

Re: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?

Just curious. Why do your parents have 700k in cash? If there isn't a good reason, that probably matters more to the results than the decision you are looking at. Your logic makes sense to me. I don't know if the numbers support your conclusion. You could do simulations to test outcomes for various...
by grayparrot
Sun Dec 11, 2016 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?
Replies: 24
Views: 3416

Any reason for retirees NOT to Roth convert?

Here is our two-generation current situation: Parents: 76/74, retired, excellent health Children: 44/39 $1.2MM home equity (two homes), net of $400k mortgage at 3.5% fixed for 28 years Parents' Investment Assets: 400k rental duplex 250k residential lot 700k cash 700k global equities 1.2MM pre-tax re...
by grayparrot
Thu Sep 29, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: long term mortgage vs. long term stock investment?
Replies: 2
Views: 240

long term mortgage vs. long term stock investment?

I am interested in opinions/your personal decisions about paying off a mortgage vs. investing in the market for the long term. Situation: Assets $5MM+ SS and other income cover all typical expenses No debt except $400k mortgage on a $1MM home. Current ability to refinance at 3.25% at no cost. Total ...
by grayparrot
Thu Feb 18, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Returns Ahead for Stocks Argument
Replies: 19
Views: 3193

Re: Low Returns Ahead for Stocks Argument

My opinion is that the original poster has a valid point, even though it doesn't apply to him/her. There is of course no evidence that any kind of reliable predications can be made about short term future performance. However, many academically oriented investors (Grantham, Hussman, etc) have demons...
by grayparrot
Mon Aug 03, 2015 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should anticipated inheritance affect asset allocation?
Replies: 23
Views: 2594

Re: How should anticipated inheritance affect asset allocation?

In my view, folks often spend too much time trying to optimize investment portfolios, and not enough time optimizing "planning" strategies. For example: your parent's building value may result in the risk of estate taxability. Look into putting the building into a family partnerships, with...
by grayparrot
Thu Jun 12, 2014 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deductibility of home mortgage for investment purposes?
Replies: 4
Views: 689

Re: Deductibility of home mortgage for investment purposes?

Refi my mortgage to invest in the stock market? Gasp, wheeze, I am having a heart attack, please call 911. Mike so it's okay to carry mortgage debt that allows the purchase of a single residential real estate property in a single geographic area, but it's not okay to have mortgage debt that allows ...
by grayparrot
Wed Jun 11, 2014 1:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deductibility of home mortgage for investment purposes?
Replies: 4
Views: 689

Deductibility of home mortgage for investment purposes?

In general, home mortgage interest can only be deducted if it is for the initial purchase, or the substantial improvement of the residence, or for up to $100,000 of home equity taken out for any purpose. However, the IRS indicates that the $100,000 limit may not apply to equity withdrawn for purpose...
by grayparrot
Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?
Replies: 124
Views: 15497

Re: Anyone else very reluctant to buy right now?

yes, I am reluctant to buy and there are very rationale reasons for this. Market timing in the short term is futile; there is no historical evidence of any reliable technique for forecasting short term (i.e, less than around 7 years) average returns. Forecasting likely return ranges over longer peri...
by grayparrot
Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Movie night in recommendations
Replies: 269
Views: 23544

Re: Movie night in recommendations

Michael Apted's moving and introspective longitudinal documentary project 7-up, which began in the 1960s with profiles of several British schoolchildren from various social backgrounds. Follow-up films every seven years since (7+7, 21 up, 28 up, etc) have followed the children throughout their subse...
by grayparrot
Thu Dec 19, 2013 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wash sale rules on option contracts?
Replies: 3
Views: 770

Re: Wash sale rules on option contracts?

Here is Fairmark's summary. You may have a wash sale between two option contracts, or between the option and the underlying stock (for example, if you sell stock at a loss, and then buy a call on the stock rather than buying the same stock). http://fairmark.com/capgain/wash/wsoption.htm pretty vagu...
by grayparrot
Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wash sale rules on option contracts?
Replies: 3
Views: 770

Wash sale rules on option contracts?

I've been trying to learn about how wash sale rules apply to the closing of an options position at a loss, then replacement with another option contract with a different expiration date or strike price. The rules seem to indicate that wash sale rules would apply if the replacement contract was "...
by grayparrot
Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fund
Replies: 92
Views: 10154

Re: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fu

Grayparrot: Your calculation omits the fact that the value of the bonds will recover to par as they approach maturity. The point of indifference is the duration (5.5 years). If there are no further rate increases after a 10% spike in rates, you are back to where you expected to be when you bought t...
by grayparrot
Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fund
Replies: 92
Views: 10154

Re: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fu

If TBM drops by 50% tomorrow because of rates spiking 10%, the bonds in it keep paying and in 5 years you get your money back. ogd - Please show some evidence or calculations that prove this claim. I thought I'd offer a response to this specific question. First of all, TBM has a duration of 5.5. Th...
by grayparrot
Mon Nov 18, 2013 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fund
Replies: 92
Views: 10154

Re: Concerned about losing principal in Total Bond Market Fu

Just to add a slight clarification to the good "anti-timing" arguments above: in my view, there is a difference between "timing" bond allocation (i.e., sticking with existing bonds vs. going to an entirely different asset class) versus "sticking with the fixed income asset c...
by grayparrot
Thu Oct 31, 2013 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Operating an Adult Care Facility?
Replies: 5
Views: 1273

Re: Operating an Adult Care Facility?

I don't know much about the backside administration of owning the facility. I know more from the service side of things from working with consumers who live in similar facilities. I do know you could your facility as a non-profit, or a for-profit agency. I don't think the margins are that high. If ...
by grayparrot
Mon Oct 28, 2013 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Operating an Adult Care Facility?
Replies: 5
Views: 1273

Re: Operating an Adult Care Facility?

I am a social worker in the Twin Cities (Minnesota). I work directly with the different Medicaid Waiver programs. We have many consumers/clients that reside within a Corporate Adult Foster Care / Supportive Living Services. What are you wanting to know? thanks for your response. A very nicely kept ...
by grayparrot
Sun Oct 27, 2013 11:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Operating an Adult Care Facility?
Replies: 5
Views: 1273

Operating an Adult Care Facility?

Any bogleheads have knowledge/opinions on owning and/or operating adult residential care facilities (specifically, 18-59 disability related facilites, rather than elder care)?
by grayparrot
Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?
Replies: 28
Views: 3570

Re: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?

In any transaction, I always look at both sides of the deal. Supose you were the one on the other side of the reverse mortgage. Then you are fronting money which is based on you getting a house after a person dies or somehow "defaults" on the contract. Assuming you have enough mortgages t...
by grayparrot
Fri Sep 27, 2013 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?
Replies: 28
Views: 3570

Re: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?

Based on your first argument alone, nobody should ever hold any investments except stocks if they have a mortgage; is this what you're suggesting? This is not what I am suggesting. If you are going to make a comparison between taking a loan to invest (essentially what you are saying), then you need...
by grayparrot
Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?
Replies: 28
Views: 3570

Re: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?

So, in this case, where there is no risk of losing the home, plentiful other assets, but a need to supplement income, if say 10 years of income can be borrowed via reverse mortgage, with equity in the house remaining significant, an expected after tax cost of <4% for the mortgage and expected 10 ye...
by grayparrot
Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?
Replies: 28
Views: 3570

Re: Reverse Mortgage == Last Resort Loan ?

some commenters on my related post pointed me to this discussion, so for what it's worth, I'll copy my thoughts here. It seems to me there are scenarios where using a reverse mortgage can be a compelling tactic for high net worth retirees. Scenario: 75 year old retired couple. Net worth $5MM, with $...
by grayparrot
Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgage vs ROTH withdrawal?
Replies: 3
Views: 568

Re: Reverse Mortgage vs ROTH withdrawal?

No. This is highly not recommended. There are typically many fees involved with reverse mortgages. The other thing you may not be considering is the increased risk. By taking money out of your home to hope for larger gains in your Roth IRA, you are essentially taking out a mortgage to invest in the...
by grayparrot
Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Young Guys [and Gals] Making Good Money
Replies: 241
Views: 29362

Re: Young Guys [and Gals] Making Good Money

I cracked six figures in my late 20s, and I never worked more than 40-50 hours a week. I worked for large banks, primarily in project management roles. There are plenty of six figure jobs around in marketing and project/product management that don't involve sales, don't involve a culture of crazy wo...
by grayparrot
Wed Sep 25, 2013 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgage vs ROTH withdrawal?
Replies: 3
Views: 568

Reverse Mortgage vs ROTH withdrawal?

Has anybody elected to use a reverse mortgage to tap home equity in order to provide retirement income, thereby allowing extended tax free growth in a ROTH IRA? If you've evaluated this, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts. It seems to me that it might begin to make sense as reverse mortgage ...
by grayparrot
Sun Sep 22, 2013 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1031 Exchange into new rental unit/addition?
Replies: 0
Views: 242

1031 Exchange into new rental unit/addition?

Hi Bogleheads... If I have a rental property (single family home), might a 1031 exchange be allowed into the construction of a new, separate entrance in-law apartment for dedicated long term rental use, but attached to my own personal residence? I'm assuming this would not be allowed, but thought I'...
by grayparrot
Wed Jul 31, 2013 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Renting indefinitely vs buying a condo?
Replies: 28
Views: 4354

Re: Renting indefinitely vs buying a condo?

Just as an additional thought for consideration based on my experiences as both a Bay Area renter and landlord, there is some consideration that should be applied to the effects of rent control. In some bay area cities like San Francisco, Berkeley, Oakland, there are VERY strict and VERY pro-tenant ...
by grayparrot
Wed Jul 31, 2013 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manager?
Replies: 27
Views: 2162

Re: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manag

For most cases, I don't think the Roth conversion analysis is all that complicated. The participants in this group seem to understand it. A simple explanation is that assuming you have enough other money to pay the tax on the conversion, it makes sense to the extent you can convert at a tax rate le...
by grayparrot
Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manager?
Replies: 27
Views: 2162

Re: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manag

[/quote] I don't have any brilliant solutions, but I do empathize, having faced just this challenge over the past couple of years while helping my own parents find good advice for addressing some complex ROTH conversion and estate planning questions.[/quote] [/quote] This is one of the things I've b...
by grayparrot
Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carrying forward disallowed passive activity losses?
Replies: 7
Views: 2138

Re: Carrying forward disallowed passive activity losses?

When a property is sold that has unused passive losses, those losses are fully deductible as an ordinary loss in the year of sale, regardless of whether the sale generates a taxable capital gain. Thanks..it hadn't occurred to me that this would remain true even after conversion to primary residence...
by grayparrot
Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manager?
Replies: 27
Views: 2162

Re: How to find a financial planner, not an investment manag

Thanks. I checked out the list of planners and may contact a few. However, most of the financial planners were still primarily investment managers. Most of the articles you linked to also were written with an investment mindset, unfortunately. Is this a common problem? How come it's so hard to find...
by grayparrot
Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Carrying forward disallowed passive activity losses?
Replies: 7
Views: 2138

Re: Carrying forward disallowed passive activity losses?

Your original assumption is correct. However, if the rental property with passive loss carryovers is converted to a principal residence, the the carryover losses can only be deducted to the extent of other passive income, or in the year the property is sold. The $25K loss exception will no longer a...

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