Search found 1662 matches

by grap0013
Sat May 28, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Other Than Finances [Fun things to do]
Replies: 34
Views: 2121

Re: Other Than Finances [Fun things to do]

Are there BHs who find they don't enjoy too many things? Apart from my work, the only things I like are traveling, reading, investing and sex. Not into food/restaurants or sports (doing or watching). My current boyfriend says I am the only person he knows who doesn't have any hobbies, so I am follo...
by grap0013
Sat May 28, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding a tilt--which international fund to use?
Replies: 65
Views: 3653

Re: Adding a tilt--which international fund to use?

My experience is that these low-volume things are a PITA when it comes to portfolio management and accumulation. I would not own GVAL at all. It will be interesting to see if anybody else reaches the same conclusion. I concur. Keep this business simple. Why not just use SFILX as your sole dev. inte...
by grap0013
Tue May 03, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can "Smart Beta" Go Horribly Wrong?
Replies: 37
Views: 5156

Re: How Can "Smart Beta" Go Horribly Wrong?

Very interesting presentation by Arnott. I think DFA, AQR, and RA all basically agree on the core elements of this stuff. The debates about nomenclature, smart beta, marketing etc... are immaterial. I'd wager there will be times when each of the companies appear to have superior strategies but I bet...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns
Replies: 22
Views: 2719

Re: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns

Vanguard's white paper on PE1 vs. PE10 had r2 of 0.36 and 0.41 for predicting returns. A value of 1 has perfect predictability basically. I think 0.05 is a very small difference. Sometimes PE1 and PE10 do not agree. With a 0.05 difference I'd wager PE10 is probably a little more right 55% of the tim...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

We're on the same team here grap0013 but do you really trust that E? The three Chinese companies in the top ten of that fund are 2 of the big four state owned banks and state owned China mobile. The state owned companies (and more heavily subsidized/controlled) have less incentive to satisfy the in...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

True, you don't need to know if the fund invests in China, Chile or Czechoslovakia to invest. You don't even need t know the name of the fund. All you really need is the symbol, VWO. And maybe a chart or some anecdotal information get the timing right. Speaking of China. Some of these EM funds have...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5598

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR Kool-Aid?

Larry Swedroe, who thinks highly of this fund, I think said that he himself had only put 3% of his portfolio into it. Although he might had said later that he had increased it. With 3% does it even make a difference in the entire portfolio? I was under the impression that you need at least 5-10% in...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5598

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

I can think of a few broad categories: A) You will not take any and stick to traditional Vanguard index funds. B) Use specialty AQR/DFA fund like QSPIX(?) the alternative fund style that is supposedly uncorrelated to traditional stock bonds. But keep this below ~20% of your portfolio. C) Will switc...
by grap0013
Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^Does not matter for our purposes. GDP and stocks returns have zero correlation or possibly even a negative correlation if I recall correctly. If you spend too much time looking at things that do not matter you may only convince yourself that they do matter and make a poor decision because of it.
by grap0013
Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I'm not a huge fan of making moves based on PE ratios. I concur for the most part. I haven't not done anything personally with this information, but for those doing RBD strategies or deciding what to put it taxable accounts I think one can tilt the scales in their favor a little bit with PEs. With ...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

BTW, DGS is already up more than 21% since the purchase noted at the beginning of this thread. Now that Vanguard Portfolio Watch actually made a valid update this morning (it was wrong all weekend), I can see that I am slightly overweight in emerging markets. Maybe it is time to sell? :twisted: gra...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Aren't the fundamentals still there for EM to be a very good long-term investment (40+ yrs.). Yes, EM is still very attractively priced IMO. EM has fallen ~50% real over the past 5 years. It will take a lot more than this recent uptick to make it expensive. EM value in particular is still attractiv...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 10, 2016 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm Addicted [to investing and personal finance]
Replies: 64
Views: 8817

Re: I'm Addicted

I can relate. I spent a lot of time yesterday looking at this: https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383280028969/83456/jp-littlebook.pdf It's a little bit connected to my job, and I'm eight months from retirement so I don't feel too guilty goggling at the flat screen, but yeah. Can be addicting. Not t...
by grap0013
Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

livesoft wrote:The DGS purchased with a 2016 Roth IRA contribution (as noted earlier in this thread) is now up 14.4%.

However, the shares of VBR I purchased in 2016 are up EVEN MORE! :twisted:

Is it time to sell? ;)


I hope you didn't! Since your post DGS is +6.97% while VBR is +4.81% :twisted:
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DGS index changes (EM SmallCap increasing Chinese %)
Replies: 2
Views: 274

Re: DGS index changes (EM SmallCap increasing Chinese %)

Don't put all your EM holdings in one basket! :-) I have about 5% in DGS and not changing a thing.
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 12
Views: 1783

Re: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

My two favorite EM SCV funds are DGS and EEMS. I like some EM LCV too though and I would not exclude it. Too much tracking error with EWX and I think their index construction or trading policies may have some deficiencies. EM is a hard space due to country weightings, cap vs. value, etc.... Therefor...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^ Don't fret, you may get another whack at lower prices. EM can drop like a rock. Although I have not heard a single member of the general public talking about how terrible EM was to invest in. Therefore, my indicator has told me we have surpassed a permanent nadir in prices. BTW, one cannot really ...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

So far so good. My fundamental EM value fund SFENX is up ~12% since my opening post in this thread. If it goes to +20% I'm starting a newsletter. 8-)
by grap0013
Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 21335

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

^Right. I don't care how much money VG or AQR makes. I'm most concerned about numero uno.

I don't want to win the powerball because I don't want to pay all those government "fees" on my winnings. :D
by grap0013
Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 21335

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Sounds like a total rip-off. I would put the probability that AQR can beat that 1.75% hurdle as very very low. So far you are wrong. :twisted: Yes but it has a history of less than 2.5 years. Anything that is highly leveraged can go spectacularly wrong when market conditions change. How much of thi...
by grap0013
Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 16904

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Although diversification across non-highly correlating asset classes is the winning strategy no matter what the investment horizon, you should note that diversification across equity asset classes is actually more important as the investment horizon shortens. This is because any one asset class can...
by grap0013
Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 16904

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Nice article Larry. One of my favorites you have written. There are no certainties only probabilities. If 1000 people take a medication it may save 20 lives and cause severe harm to 8 people. It's statistically significant. Chances are the 20 people are not the same people as the 8 people. Does that...
by grap0013
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I learned that they do not believe that this issue will be resolved for perhaps two years, as the people drawing up the rules are lawyers and don't understand the differences of leverage based on risk, so leveraging a one month bill is very different than leveraging a 30 year bond or stocks. The in...
by grap0013
Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yeah, I Timed...UPDATE
Replies: 29
Views: 5244

Re: Yeah, I Timed...

So last Monday I moved 25k in my 401k out of bonds and into the S&P. It's just a few percent of our portfolio but it was purely a move to leverage the drop in the markets. Will move it all back when it goes up 10%. If your strategy is to buy low, why not buy emerging markets instead of the S&am...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 21335

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Some interesting developments... Scottrade received abrupt notice from AQR yesterday (Jan 27) that QSPIX/QSPNX/QMNIX were being closed effective immediately, to ALL investors, not just new investors. All orders for these funds placed Jan 27 from Scottrade were rejected by AQR. Meanwhile, strangely,...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 531

Re: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

> But I just googled "make slideshow online" and got a bunch of results that look promising for any platform. I did this first also. Be careful to read the reviews to find out which ones install crapware. Me too, that's why I came here and was looking for some personal testimonies on user...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 531

Re: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

wilshuer wrote:If you're on Windows check out Microsoft Movie Maker, it's free, possibly already on your computer. Have used many times for this purpose, allows output directly to load to youtube.


I'm on Windows 10 and Movie Maker is not supported by it. Keep 'em coming folks! Thanks!
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 531

Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

Please share the best way to make a free slideshow with music in the background?

I'm thinking PowerPoint, but maybe not because some may want to view it on their phones.

It's for a very sick relative that needs some inspiration.

Thanks so much!
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?
Replies: 31
Views: 2378

Re: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?

You must not have heard?! I have already called the bottom in EM: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107 Have I done anything different about my feelings on this? Nope. Set targets, adhere to targets. Full disclosure: EM allocation 2010-2014: 25% EM allocation 2015: 22.5% (...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
grap0013 wrote:Ha! I have to mix it up a little bit instead of always talking about SCV QSPIX! :twisted:


FTFY :D


Lol! :beer
by grap0013
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Ha! I have to mix it up a little bit instead of always talking about SCV! :twisted:
by grap0013
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Oil is up over 5% this am. Buckle up. Here we go! :wink:
by grap0013
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

OP, if you are calling bottoms, what about US small value?! It has been tanking quite badly. It's always a good time to buy US SCV! 8-) I'm not sure if US SCV is cheap relative to other US stocks. I can tell you this though, EM value is cheap relative to everything in the market as an asset class.
by grap0013
Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I'm trying to figure out what my EM target weight should be. From looking at M*, it looks like EM is about 7% of world stock. About 14% of international stock. My AA calls for 30% US stock, 20% International stock. That would suggest about a 3% allocation to EM. For those who tilt, what allocation ...
by grap0013
Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

This is a dangerous thread for new comers of this forum. There is a lot of speculation here which is something we all frown upon. I figure if my IPS says hold X% in total international and Y% in EM, then rebalance to that. Otherwise we are just guessing here. I'm an uneducated simple investor and w...
by grap0013
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

1 Develop a workable plan 2 Invest early and often 3 Never bear too much or too little risk 4 Diversify 5 Never try to time the market[/size] 6 Use index funds when possible 7 Keep costs low 8 Minimize taxes 9 Invest with simplicity 10 Stay the course QSPIX is not too far off from the above when co...
by grap0013
Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Avo wrote:PortfolioVisualizer was being used to study correlations between QSPIX and various long-equity DFA funds, with the conclusion that correlations are low. That seems perfectly valid to me.


Low is an understatement. They are 0. :sharebeer
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

. The larger the value, momentum, and quality tilt you have on the equity side of your portfolio the higher the correlation of your equity holdings will be with QSPIX. As about 60% of QSPIX is essentially comprised of a positive load to value, momentum, and quality within equities, this should corr...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

sambb wrote:This might be one of those great lifetime investment opportunities. The callan tables are suggestive of a low also. Hmmm..


Indeed. Some great historical returns have started at mid single digit PEs.
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I don't understand the concept of an "emerging markets bottom," because I still don't see what it is that emerging markets are supposed to have in common other than being undeveloped. less developed. I don't know why you'd expect Peru to hit a bottom just because Qatar has, because apart ...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Grap, where are you seeing these numbers? On morning star I see FP/E of 11.71. The only way to get trailing PEs in Morningstar to my knowledge is to set up a free portfolio and look under the "My view" tab and add the trailing 1 year PE as a metric you'd like to include. I see the followi...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buyin' today?
Replies: 127
Views: 11775

Re: Who's buyin' today?

Maynard F. Speer wrote:Not all falls are dips

It might be - but then we might be at the start of another 2000, or even a Japan 1990

Personally I've been selling the peaks since December


2000 was a great time to buy. Buying low and selling high is simple but it's not easy for most people.
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Yeah, looks like the crowds are certainly heading for the exits, though I am not seeing total chaos yet. But it's attractive enough for me to start buying at this point and if it moves further down, consistent with topping off my allocation targets a little early. Good luck ladies and gentlemen. Ri...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^ Reminds me of a South Park episode about investing in the market. I'm paraphrasing, "Here's your money going into the market....and it's gone!"
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

livesoft wrote:Hey, DGS is already DOWN from where it was purchased today. What's up with that?


The day is still early. Expect an after lunch rally.
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Thanks for the post and comments. P.S. first time I see livesoft getting help :beer I'm not sure he's being serious. :wink: Tough to tell. I just looked yesterday. SFENX (EM value) is down 40% over the past 5 years. Not even including inflation. We are close/into bloodbath territory with EM value e...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

livesoft wrote:OK, I will ask my spouse to invest her 2016 Roth IRA contribution 100% into emerging markets. Which ETF should she choose: VWO, DGS, or EWX? She intends to invest today.


:-) DGS, it's a nice RBD today too!
by grap0013
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 23014

I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I'm calling an Emerging Markets bottom this year. Not sure what month/day per se but sometime in 2016. This reminds me of the shoe shine boy in 1999 who is giving his customers stock tips. Twice in the past week I've heard people who are uninterested in investing talking about how Emerging Markets a...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Keep in mind that this fund has NO correlation with stocks, not negative. That means there will be times when stocks do poorly and the fund doesn't do so well. Very hard to find negatively correlating assets. Larry Agreed. I have seen 3 separate periods with this fund so far. Equities up double dig...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1078
Views: 129184

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^Completely agree. YTD QSPIX +1.18% and QSPNX +1.08%. These funds make part of a sweet mix. I'm very impressed with them. I'm currently: 40% SCV 20% iSCV 20% EMV 20% QSPIX/QSPNX but one could move the dial further down the volatility spectrum and do: 30% SCV 15% iSCV 15% EMV 20% QSPIX/QSPNX 20% inte...

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