Search found 1719 matches

by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 36
Views: 3780

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

ER of 1.48% :shock: How does anyone who calls themselves a Boglehead get interested in such a fund? Because of this bwahaaahawhahwhwha!!! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1215

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

I love All in the Family but you have definitely massively upped my incentive to diet... Cliff I have watched all three videos and found that I like Cliff Asness. He actually posted here and showed a great sense of humor. He also somewhat resembles Rob Reiner, I expect Archie Bunker to say, "O...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1215

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

Cool find matjen. I heart AQR. :beer My pleasure tarheel. There is actually an additional video up. I had watched the original studio interview live and was slightly annoyed that they had edited out the last few minutes where he talked about everyone's favorite mutual fund QSPIX! Here is the new vi...
by grap0013
Sun Sep 25, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3733

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

I have more thoughts, but hey, it's the weekend so I'll keep my comments short. Quick question: Larry what is your expected return for the AQR HV fund? 5% real?
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3733

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Robert T, Thanks for linking that other thread. I missed that one. I see the decreased tail risk now. Backtested +20.9% in 2008. With an SD of 10 it looks like your backtest best represents TS MOM "light". If we attempt to extrapolate out the high volatility (HV) version's 2008 returns wit...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3733

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Thanks all for your responses! Lots to think about here. Any other thoughts on the correlation of 0.38 between QSPNX and QMHNX? If it were 0 +/- 0.2 I would be more convinced on adding TS MOM. Is it higher because something is not translating from academia to implementation? Don't get me wrong 0.38 ...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 36
Views: 3780

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

Funny funny. Long story short is it's a complicated way of losing money, but some folks around here like it because it's losing money for different reasons than the market as a whole. And they add some schooling for the mere mortals lol. Upside is I pretty much got some response to my question: tha...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3733

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

A few more questions... Larry, Why did your firm wait until now to recommend TS MOM funds in its portfolios? That 2016 paper you referenced in that ETF.com was convincing? Was AQR's data previously available and it was validated by that 2016 paper? Just wondering. Looks like Fido users can likely bu...
by grap0013
Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 64
Views: 3733

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Larry, What is the correlation coefficient between TS and CS momentum? What ratio are you personally holding between Style Premia Alternative (SPA) and TS momentum? 50:50? I'm currently 80% equities and 20% SPA. I do not want more than 20% alternative investments. I can't see taking a lot out of SPA...
by grap0013
Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 36
Views: 3780

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

I don't think this is a fair question to ask. Please keep in mind that I personally am skeptical, even snarky about this fund--not that it matters because I don't think it's available to me anyway--but what do you expect from this fund, and what did Larry or AQR or anybody say about it? I don't thi...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 6057

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

Ok--so I am going to go for it and stop tilting. A couple responses (without quotes, sorry): - I do understand the technical meaning of expected return (I have a strong math background) - I do understand that flipping strategies around a lot is a bad idea. This is why I told myself in my IPS to pic...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 6057

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

"Potential" sounds more like "hope" to the tune that the positive outcome might only happen a low percentage of the time. I could "potentially" win the lottery. I have the "potential" to be a professional athlete. See my point? Why the heck would I even invest...
by grap0013
Wed Sep 14, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.
Replies: 66
Views: 6057

Re: I am going to stop tilting. Sanity check.

A lot of tilt Bailer's on this thread. Keep those premiums alive and kicking baby! :sharebeer

(I know, annoying post but I could not resist!)
by grap0013
Fri Sep 09, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?
Replies: 45
Views: 4237

Re: Why are Treasury prices AND Stock prices both down today?

Because their correlation is not -1. The trend especially the past 9 years has been to move in opposite directions but it's definitely not an absolute.
by grap0013
Mon Sep 05, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns
Replies: 22
Views: 2475

Re: Part 2 of series on how frequency of checking values can impact returns

Perhaps since we've had 2 recent big drops (tech collapse and 09') it won't happen again until I've won the game and by that point will have the Larry portfolio and not care much :D I know you are joking but you may be right. 10-20% Haircuts happen every year or two. Full blown 40%+ losses are infr...
by grap0013
Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1092
Views: 141530

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Is QSPIX losing its magic: YTD: -3.16% through 8/31/16 August: -2.48% The last week has been particularly bad. Wonder what factors have turned negative in their mix. Will have to wait till October when they publish their 3rd quarter attribution analysis. I was waiting for someone to post about poor...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

^Nice summary. One has to take all that into consideration and also recognize avoidance of wash sale for tax deferred/Roth assets. My spouse contributes 100% of her 401K contributions to VSIAX. Contributions and dividend reinvestment would trigger a wash sale for me if I try to harvest VBR from taxa...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TRLGX (T Rowe Price Large Cap Growth) Thoughts
Replies: 3
Views: 258

Re: TRLGX (T Rowe Price Large Cap Growth) Thoughts

^ +1 Axe that sucker. Don't even think twice about it. Here is what happens, something like 10 active funds out of 100 will beat your low cost index fund comparison fund over a 10 year period by random luck. 401K plan administrators will pick some of those 10 funds for your 401K plan thinking they a...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

FNDE-PXH would be large emerging value TLH pairs. FNDC-PDN would be dev exUS small value TLH pairs. Depending on which funds remain in your portfolio after you harvest losses, it’d be possible to overweight/underweight South Korea. FNDE & PDN include it, PXH & FNDC do not. I think in taxabl...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

I meant FNDE in my above posts. Edited.
by grap0013
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

hmmm...decisions, decisions. I can definitely feel the pull towards simplicity when it comes to tilting in the international space. I could stick with the trusted Vanguard funds and still overweight EM and small to keep things spicy. And yet, I'd hate to miss the EM value upswing--all those juicy B...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How did your 401k fund grow from 2006 to 2016? please share. did you come out fine for 2008 crash?
Replies: 27
Views: 4026

Re: How did your 401k fund grow from 2006 to 2016? please share. did you come out fine for 2008 crash?

I literally started maxing my 401K with the first paycheck of 2007. Talk about buy high. I now have 250K+. A bunch of buying low. Decent match. I likely have more than the OP because I am one aggressive SOB.
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

Grap, It seems weird to TLH from a fundamental fund (FNDC) to a cap-weighted fund (VSS), but I see your point about PDN's low AUM. Likewise, it seems weird to TLH from PXH (mega cap) to DGS (small cap). Is your preference for PXH over FNDE because of the later's tracking error? Thanks again. Oh I f...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable
Replies: 17
Views: 1482

Re: Small Cap Value Stewardship Risk in Taxable

Full disclosure: I have not had a taxable account for a few years as I liquidated mine to buy a house. I'm now maxing tax deferred and paying down debt. I think all of the following are ok to use in taxable and listed in order of my preference within the asset class: US SCV: VBR IJS dev exUS SCV: FN...
by grap0013
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Opinions on this new fund: suitability for EM small and value
Replies: 6
Views: 451

Re: Opinions on this new fund: suitability for EM small and value

I agree with all of the other posters.

You'd be better off splitting your EM space:

25% PXH/SFENX
25% DFCEX
25% DGS
25% EEMS

That's a nice core 4 for EM. It will help minimize tracking error regret and performance chasing within an asset class.
by grap0013
Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11165

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

I think this exchange is why I've become more skeptical of tilts of various types over this time. Backpacker posits a very legitimate and believable "story" as to how the value premium could go away and Larry replies with the same comments he makes in every thread. Essentially what we get...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11165

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

The whole point of my post was that the value spread doesn't need to shrink for the expected value premium to go away. All you need is for the market to do a better job estimating future earnings. That's asking a lot. I know a lot of people in the market that are not good with money. Plus value com...
by grap0013
Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 211
Views: 11165

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

And when I see post like yours about how the value premium may shrink to nothing, I think "good thing I have VBR! With 850 companies for 0.08%, it would be a reasonable investment even if there were no size and value premia." I read about asset allocation for about 5 months in 2010 and in...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2536

Re: Knowing what you know now...

Money is ultimately a tool and is used for spending. I wouldn't go back and change a thing. Some on this forum are too frugal IMHO. Live a little. Save 15-30% and you'll do just fine. It sounds like you need a new job more than anything. Find something more enjoyable for work. You will find your lev...
by grap0013
Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 2636

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

HomerJ, do you benchmark bonds against stock funds or US stocks against international stocks? And declare winners or losers after 3 years? I didn't declare a winner; grap0013 did. So I was replying to that. Your point is spot-on though. There's nothing to benchmark QSPIX against, unless you have a ...
by grap0013
Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 2636

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

The past 2 days all my stock holdings have been down. Treasury bonds have been down too both days. QSPIX the past 2 days has been +0.5% and +0.69%. Look at this correlation matrix: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=DFSVX%2C+DISVX%2C+DFEVX%2C+QSPIX%2C+IEF&endD...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 2636

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

So, now, I'm spending my time looking into the merits as well as drawbacks of Vanguard's Market neutral fund... it's cheaper than AQR. Not sure if it's adequate or if money would be better spent on the AQR product. Thoughts? GOR All market neutral funds are not created equal: https://www.portfoliov...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'd like to set up an alert for when the market drops.. tips?
Replies: 12
Views: 1141

Re: I'd like to set up an alert for when the market drops.. tips?

After reading a lot of replies and advice, I'm not going to try to time the "buy-ins" for the most part, but I'd still like an alert to see when things drop. I don't have the will to check the markets daily.. so I'd like an alert/text/something. I just want to look at the ice cream, but I...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 670

Re: Roof/deck ideas?

Rupert wrote:Have you talked to a structural engineer or architect to make sure the structure below will hold the weight of a deck + furniture + people up there?


I have not, I just assumed it would easily hold because "it seems very sturdy". Good idea though, better safe than sorry.
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 670

Re: Roof/deck ideas?

I would be concerned that anything (chairs, wood of new deck) you place on it could puncture the rubber membrane = leaks into room below. That is our fear too. We thought if we could put something safe between the rubber membrane and table + chairs it should be ok. Some of those deck materials can ...
by grap0013
Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Roof/deck ideas?
Replies: 15
Views: 670

Roof/deck ideas?

I have a 2nd story outdoor black flat rubber membrane roof. Here's an idea of what it looks like if you are not familiar with these: http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=flat+rubber+membrane+roof&FORM=HDRSC2 Comes off the main bedroom. Pretty location. Deck posts and railing are already up there....
by grap0013
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution
Replies: 46
Views: 4410

Re: Theory only... when to stop 401k contribution

I know its always best to max out your 401k, but at what point is your balance large enough that maxed contributions are insignificant?? Again... just for fun and discussion, what is the magic amount when gains totally overshadow contributions? He said "just for fun" people. I say when yo...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What makes people succeed?
Replies: 98
Views: 8365

Re: What makes people succeed?

Successful people I know really don't care too much about what others think about them. They don't worry about the failings of other people and certain don't worry about any failings they might have. And they especially don't care if anybody criticizes them. They just get on with being themselves. ...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 13255

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Interesting psychology in this thread. I think people who favor mental accounting tend to be more emotional than people who use more logic and reasoning in my humble opinion. When someone tells a mental accounter their methods are less than ideal they sometimes get emotional and defensive about thei...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 201
Views: 29628

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Theoretical wrote:FNDE is up nearly 40% since January 15.


Word. Fundamentally EM is making some hay after being dogs of the dogs (EM overall) for the past several years. Some pretty good drama in EM.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares
Replies: 36
Views: 3216

Re: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares

I am not sure what the purposes of these type of threads are? I am still relatively young (turning 40 soon) and ONLY see this bravado in the really young. Funny when I think about it I only see bravado in ANYTHING in the young. Don't think I have ever seen an older person have that quality. +1. Lik...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50633

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

This thread reinforces my beliefs. I think most people should have 60 to 70% 5 year treasury bonds who are near/at retirement. A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double t...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional shares?
Replies: 22
Views: 1423

Re: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional sha

My options are that I can buy any fund, stock, bond, or ETF that are offered for trade at Schwab. Practically this means buying schwab commission-free ETFs because $8.95 per transaction for non-free ETFs on a $400 contribution are a non-starter. I like your idea as it's practical. However, the more...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 46
Views: 4536

Re: Bond Market Bubble

Good Morning Bogleheads, Long time reader/lurker, first time poster. This forum is my current favorite source of financial info. I just finished The Intelligent Investor , Jack's Common Sense on Mutual Funds , and am currently reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing . I am new to the Boglehead in...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional shares?
Replies: 22
Views: 1423

Re: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional sha

What are your 401K standard account options? Your problem is an easy fix. Simply buy a target retirement fund or a cheap index mutual fund exclusively throughout the entire year. Once per year do a dump and disseminate the money from the feeder fund to the aforementioned ETFs. Gradually the 25K or w...
by grap0013
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at REITs, and a new study
Replies: 52
Views: 4722

Re: A look at REITs, and a new study

I see this as follows: 1. Do nothing and follow rebalancing bands. Do nothing is always a good strategy. You'll buy low and sell high as virtue of rebalancing bands. 2. For those of you with a REIT allocation and have been wanting to simplify and axe it....now is a pretty good time. Only if it is a ...
by grap0013
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting rid of international funds
Replies: 83
Views: 6859

Re: Getting rid of international funds

It's not the things you know that you don't know that get you into trouble. It's the things you know that just ain't so that get you into trouble. It's a terrible move OP. You are rationalizing buying high and selling low. You are seeking out information that justifies the move ie "Jack says......
by grap0013
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1092
Views: 141530

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

1 week returns since Brexit.... VFITX (intermediate treasuries) +1.32% QSPIX +1.51% Observations: Nothing has changed in the world. Bonds are still a safe haven especially in times of equity troubles and QSPIX reduces downside volatility sometimes even more than bonds. I know QSPIX is supposed to ha...
by grap0013
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!
Replies: 31
Views: 3076

Re: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!

I made it through the last several days with all the drops - doing nothing. I did nothing. I know I lost money, but so what. I am learning that it is over long term, and just have to stick to my set up an plan. What goes up must down, and what goes down, will go back up. It does help that I have a ...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 27
Views: 2994

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

Look at the metrics. Also, look at the xray view on Morningstar. It has a mild/moderate value tilt and it has been consistent the past 3 years. Don't get too caught up in nomenclature (ie what the underlying index is called).

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