Search found 1766 matches

by grap0013
Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?
Replies: 32
Views: 2218

Re: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?

The Larry Portfolio only lost 2.84% in 2008: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=12%2F01%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflation...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9155

Re: A Private Message (PM) About Momentum Funds

Bogleheads: This morning I received a Private Message about momentum funds. I believe its message is worth considering (personal comments removed): I don't post much any more. Thankfully, I GOT the message many years ago and have been pleased, and thankful. This AQR stuff being promoted is a bad th...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9155

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just for fun, I just looked at VTI since QSPIX inception. 13 negative months. QSPIX had better returns than VTI in 12 of those 13 months. QMHIX had better returns than VTI in 10 of those 13 months. The one negative VTI month were QSPIX did worse, QMHIX was strongly positive.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9155

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

QMHIX has been around since 07/2013. That's about 40 months. The bulk of this fund's gains came 8/14 thru 1/15. About 5 months out of the 40. The rest of the time it has been down/flat. It's a little feast or famine. It does appear this momentum fund has momentum. It goes down most days since I've b...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6407

Re: Bonds suck

Thanks for the tips, all. I guess I was just disappointed lately because I've seen losses due to the bonds when that money would've been growing (albeit, slowly) had I put it in a high-yield savings account. This isn't my retirement account; it's just sort of a medium-term place to stash money. It ...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9155

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just posting and updating my thoughts on the TS MOM fund QMHIX. I get the logic of it but I cannot get myself to buy some. Per Larry's new book, during the worst 10 drawdowns of a 60:40 portfolio over the last 135 years TS MOM produced positive returns in 8 of them. Looks like a good diversifier but...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?
Replies: 52
Views: 5292

Re: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?

If you are in your 30's this money should be sitting there for at least 20 years. This mistake will be a blip. I disagree. OP, I'm not going to coddle you. I do not want to lambaste you either. You should do a honest self assessment of the situation though. This will help you stay the course the ne...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8388

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Shoot my retirement contribution went thru a day early due to the holiday. Missed a 3% sale. Maybe EM will be lower in 2 weeks! :twisted:
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8388

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

And DGS continues to go down while IJS continues to go up. My patient rebalancing looks like it may pay off.... Interesting 2 days between SCV and DGS. Spread yesterday 5+% in opposite directions and more negative correlation today. It's not that common for these two to be in opposite directions, w...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8388

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying? I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then. You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted: Okay, I'm...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8388

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 129
Views: 12733

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

Lieutenant Basically, only buy CDs as they always are higher yielding. And can of course buy small amounts too. For munis buy individual bonds Larry What about flight to quality benefits of treasuries? When times are good you'll lag overall with treasuries vs. CDs. Rebalance by selling stocks and y...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 3933

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

SCV is doing better than TSM this year. Sometimes it will not. It definitely diversifies your return stream. Technically speaking, adding SCV in addition to TSM in a portfolio concentrates the portfolio, and thus the return stream, because SCV is a subset of TSM. It makes the portfolio more subject...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 3933

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

...Say I'm 80% or 90% convinced... If you are 80% or 90% convinced that SCV has an above average chance of outperforming then maybe you shouldn't do it. If you are 100% sure that SCV has an 80%-90% chance out outperforming over your investment lifetime and sure you can withstand 15 years of under p...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 78
Views: 6281

Re: How much international?

I'm 50:50. I am not going to kid myself and think I can predict the future. That works best for me personally though.

I think 0-60% international are all fine answers. If eg 13.7% international allows one to stay the course then more power to ya!
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 78
Views: 6281

Re: How much international?

So I don't know what to say about any of this, because there are all these books out there that say with great assurance that international investing reduces risk, and all I can say is that when I look at the data for myself, I don't see where it ever did . It sure didn't help in 2008-2009. You are...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 3933

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

I'd say SCV has a 90% chance of outperforming TSM over the next 20 years. If SCV does underperform it won't be by much and I won't notice. I don't have any large caps other than EM value. I don't look at large cap performance either. I have no idea if SCV has done better than the TSM the past 3 or 5...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?
Replies: 25
Views: 1595

Re: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?

Historically, if using long-term value metrics, by choosing investments that have "higher expected" returns you have actually experienced lower draw-downs on average and by the maximum. The chart below dos a great job displaying this. Now does that mean anything moving forward, who knows?...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1098
Views: 145409

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^Not sure. Don't look now but equities are down another ~1% today. 5 year treasuries +0.17% and QSPIX +0.70%.
by grap0013
Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1365

Re: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?

Looks good, I'll give that link a chance. Thank you!
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1365

Re: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises

Bump. Somebody must know where this is....
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1098
Views: 145409

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^^ Nice matjen, I was just about to post the same. Fund is doing what it does best. Diversification.
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1365

Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?

Anybody have a link to Larrry's video 45-60 min where he takes us through a history lesson in crises and how the market just keeps marching higher? I saw this a couple of years ago and it was great. I cannot seem to find it now. It's fitting this time of year and I could really use this for some fam...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 28, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1679

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

Ok thanks. Like you I also have a significant percent of my international in SFENX (FNDE for me). FNDC makes more sense in some respects, for example both FNDC and FNDE classify South Korea as EM, while SCHC calls it DM which makes me pointlessly overweight in Korea. Easy choice then, I would comfo...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1679

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

Basically I decided it was a wash and went SCHC because I felt the lower expense ratio was guaranteed. How did you choose SFILX? By default mostly. I use a brokerage link through fidelity in my retirement account and ETFs are a no-no there. However, looking at those options, SCHC is cap weighted an...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted: No-no. This is a new ALL CAPS factor! Paul Better test it ex post, t stats, internationally, and see if it is persistent, pervasive, and robust. Also, check if it has a logic story. Factors are vetted better than tho...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 215
Views: 32549

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^I guess I'll do your dirty work: http://samuelssonsrapport.se/wp-content ... 088140.pdf

Check out pages 5, 14, 28 in particular.
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted: No-no. This is a new ALL CAPS factor! Paul Better test it ex post, t stats, internationally, and see if it is persistent, pervasive, and robust. Also, check if it has a logic story. Factors are vetted better than tho...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 215
Views: 32549

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Where does one get the historical PE ratios for Emerging Markets? Is VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Admiral Index fund) a good proxy to track performance? I've only seen historical numbers given by authors. However, one can easily get a 1 year PE by building a free portfolio on Morningstar and lo...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 215
Views: 32549

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

The other thing is that EM still has good valuations after having been crushed for years. A 45% gain only makes up for 30% of losses, and PXH/SFENX have tons of losses since their founding. Yes, but the marching orders from the original post in this topic were to buy immediately so as to put one's ...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 215
Views: 32549

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

From the opening post SFENX is up now +45.87%. EM value is particularly on a tear. On a daily basis SFENX is up more than my other EM holdings the majority of the time. You must be out of band by now then; when are you going to trim/rebalance out? (It seems like a reasonable question since portfoli...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3230

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted:
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 215
Views: 32549

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

From the opening post SFENX is up now +45.87%. EM value is particularly on a tear. On a daily basis SFENX is up more than my other EM holdings the majority of the time.
by grap0013
Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1679

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

I dig SFILX. It is my only int dev holding. Reasonable cost, low turnover, lots of stocks, low relative volatility, and a value tilt.
by grap0013
Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28461

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Firechief I very much disagree as it is very actionable and we have been doing it for 20 years, using the EXPECTED returns and expected distributions to make long term adjustments based on MCS. In fact I have no idea how you can make any investment decisions on AA without doing so. We use the outco...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28461

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

HomerJ, I think Larry is saying that the expected return is the best estimate we have. Of course it will be wrong but we can at least assign probabilities to how wrong it is and over large sample sizes and long periods of time you will do better betting on probabilities. If you want to bet that mar...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low Volatility Funds - Should I sell them?
Replies: 13
Views: 912

Re: Low Volatility Funds - Should I sell them?

I am retired and when I decided to build my equity portfolio around them my thought was that I would not mind sacrificing a bit of return to get lower volatility, specially in bear markets where one needs it the most. I have to admit that I was shocked when I saw that they were returning more than ...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 28461

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

whodidntante wrote:So I should be 100% EM, then? :mrgreen: :moneybag


Ha ha, can you imagine the tracking error?

5 year annualized returns ending 1998:

US +21.5%
EM -6.12%

5 year annualized returns ending 2007:

US +13.8%
EM +36.38%

Brutal.
by grap0013
Fri Oct 21, 2016 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 181
Views: 25545

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Just converted $35000 worth of QSPNX to QSPIX. $49.95 transaction fee. Breakeven point is 6-7 months. Worth it.

Just FYI, TS MOM fund QMHIX said $100,000 minimum but I'm definitely allowed to purchase less than that. Still debating adding an allocation to that.

Just FYI all.
by grap0013
Thu Oct 20, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 9155

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Hi Larry, Love the new book! I just finished Appendix F on TS MOM last night and had a few questions. In particular pertaining to the 2014 paper by Hutchinson and O’Brien. 1. I’m paraphrasing, subsequent to a global financial crisis, trend following aka TS MOM tends to be weak for four years on aver...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 12, 2016 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 129
Views: 12733

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

I was hoping for, "The Tilter's Guide to the Galaxy" and a cover with planets and shooting stars on it but this will have to do. :wink: Looks like a very good read and will probably serve as a reference. I'll put it on the mantle in the living room. Not sure if guests will think I'm crazy ...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 10, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4087

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

5 year annualized return ~15% for REITS. Reversion to the mean. Sooner or later they have a beat down coming to them. A reasonable statement in general, but I doubt current noise is any symptom of said reversion. Agreed. One has 3 options: 1. Permanently add a REIT allocation 2. Permanently remove ...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's going on with REITS this week?
Replies: 26
Views: 4087

Re: What's going on with REITS this week?

5 year annualized return ~15% for REITS. Reversion to the mean. Sooner or later they have a beat down coming to them.
by grap0013
Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Small (VSS/VFSVX) Underperforms ALL Active Funds
Replies: 25
Views: 2370

Re: International Small (VSS/VFSVX) Underperforms ALL Active Funds

How is this possible?!? :oops: From Morningstar's performance tab for VSS: Rank in Category (Price): 3 years: 80 5 years: 100 :shock: Rank in Category (NAV): 3 years: 100 5 years: 100 :oops: Is this the one area of the market where active management makes sense? Or am I missing something? I'd do th...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Where is Livesoft?
Replies: 94
Views: 13556

Re: Where is Livesoft?

He would post from Mexico. You don't post that much and stop
Cold turkey. I hope he's ok.
by grap0013
Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is extra diversification worth 0.18 plus liquidity cost
Replies: 8
Views: 773

Re: Is extra diversification worth 0.18 plus liquidity cost

I have US projected at 6% real, Europe at about 8%, and EM at 10%. It will cost you a lot to not diversify. Run your same calculation with a 2% underperformance by US. See how much you may miss out on by not diversifying. How does that make you feel? One has to look at a range of potential outcomes ...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 40
Views: 4763

Re: Why is QSPIX steadily declining?

ER of 1.48% :shock: How does anyone who calls themselves a Boglehead get interested in such a fund? Because of this bwahaaahawhahwhwha!!! https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=09%...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1423

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

I love All in the Family but you have definitely massively upped my incentive to diet... Cliff I have watched all three videos and found that I like Cliff Asness. He actually posted here and showed a great sense of humor. He also somewhat resembles Rob Reiner, I expect Archie Bunker to say, "O...
by grap0013
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today
Replies: 15
Views: 1423

Re: AQR's Cliff Asness on Bloomberg Today

Cool find matjen. I heart AQR. :beer My pleasure tarheel. There is actually an additional video up. I had watched the original studio interview live and was slightly annoyed that they had edited out the last few minutes where he talked about everyone's favorite mutual fund QSPIX! Here is the new vi...

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