Search found 1681 matches

by grap0013
Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 169
Views: 9427

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Interesting psychology in this thread. I think people who favor mental accounting tend to be more emotional than people who use more logic and reasoning in my humble opinion. When someone tells a mental accounter their methods are less than ideal they sometimes get emotional and defensive about thei...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Theoretical wrote:FNDE is up nearly 40% since January 15.


Word. Fundamentally EM is making some hay after being dogs of the dogs (EM overall) for the past several years. Some pretty good drama in EM.
by grap0013
Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares
Replies: 36
Views: 2983

Re: wishing the market would drop to buy more shares

I am not sure what the purposes of these type of threads are? I am still relatively young (turning 40 soon) and ONLY see this bravado in the really young. Funny when I think about it I only see bravado in ANYTHING in the young. Don't think I have ever seen an older person have that quality. +1. Lik...
by grap0013
Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49568

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

This thread reinforces my beliefs. I think most people should have 60 to 70% 5 year treasury bonds who are near/at retirement. A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double t...
by grap0013
Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional shares?
Replies: 22
Views: 1323

Re: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional sha

My options are that I can buy any fund, stock, bond, or ETF that are offered for trade at Schwab. Practically this means buying schwab commission-free ETFs because $8.95 per transaction for non-free ETFs on a $400 contribution are a non-starter. I like your idea as it's practical. However, the more...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Market Bubble
Replies: 43
Views: 3582

Re: Bond Market Bubble

Good Morning Bogleheads, Long time reader/lurker, first time poster. This forum is my current favorite source of financial info. I just finished The Intelligent Investor , Jack's Common Sense on Mutual Funds , and am currently reading The Bogleheads Guide to Investing . I am new to the Boglehead in...
by grap0013
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional shares?
Replies: 22
Views: 1323

Re: Slice-n-Dice 401K Contributions: What's you method for hitting asset class allocation % targets w/out fractional sha

What are your 401K standard account options? Your problem is an easy fix. Simply buy a target retirement fund or a cheap index mutual fund exclusively throughout the entire year. Once per year do a dump and disseminate the money from the feeder fund to the aforementioned ETFs. Gradually the 25K or w...
by grap0013
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at REITs, and a new study
Replies: 52
Views: 4362

Re: A look at REITs, and a new study

I see this as follows: 1. Do nothing and follow rebalancing bands. Do nothing is always a good strategy. You'll buy low and sell high as virtue of rebalancing bands. 2. For those of you with a REIT allocation and have been wanting to simplify and axe it....now is a pretty good time. Only if it is a ...
by grap0013
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Getting rid of international funds
Replies: 83
Views: 6547

Re: Getting rid of international funds

It's not the things you know that you don't know that get you into trouble. It's the things you know that just ain't so that get you into trouble. It's a terrible move OP. You are rationalizing buying high and selling low. You are seeking out information that justifies the move ie "Jack says......
by grap0013
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1079
Views: 134340

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

1 week returns since Brexit.... VFITX (intermediate treasuries) +1.32% QSPIX +1.51% Observations: Nothing has changed in the world. Bonds are still a safe haven especially in times of equity troubles and QSPIX reduces downside volatility sometimes even more than bonds. I know QSPIX is supposed to ha...
by grap0013
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!
Replies: 31
Views: 2832

Re: As a new investor that is still learning I am making it through Brexit!

I made it through the last several days with all the drops - doing nothing. I did nothing. I know I lost money, but so what. I am learning that it is over long term, and just have to stick to my set up an plan. What goes up must down, and what goes down, will go back up. It does help that I have a ...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap
Replies: 27
Views: 2913

Re: Thoughts on IEIS iShares Enhanced International Small-Cap

Look at the metrics. Also, look at the xray view on Morningstar. It has a mild/moderate value tilt and it has been consistent the past 3 years. Don't get too caught up in nomenclature (ie what the underlying index is called).
by grap0013
Fri Jun 17, 2016 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to not till to 100% REIT or 100% small cap value stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Reasons to not till to 100% REIT or 100% small cap value stocks

Go for it OP. Example: Let's say TSM has expected return sources of 6% from B. Let's say SCV has expected returns of 6% from B, 2% from S, and 2% from V. Even if you pick 100% of your allocation to SCV you'll keep that 6% expected from B. The 2% return sources each from S and V have low correlation...
by grap0013
Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reasons to not till to 100% REIT or 100% small cap value stocks
Replies: 76
Views: 5350

Re: Reasons to not till to 100% REIT or 100% small cap value stocks

Go for it OP. Example: Let's say TSM has expected return sources of 6% from B. Let's say SCV has expected returns of 6% from B, 2% from S, and 2% from V. Even if you pick 100% of your allocation to SCV you'll keep that 6% expected from B. The 2% return sources each from S and V have low correlations...
by grap0013
Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?
Replies: 22
Views: 2286

Re: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?

Under some circumstances they did . Other times they didn't . You're citing one time, the recent financial crisis, when they did. Most bear markets do not coincide with liquidity crises. That one did. Did isn't will . It appears neither of us is joking. PJW Status-post 2009. 2010 to present with a ...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?
Replies: 22
Views: 2286

Re: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?

Go with treasuries. They go up more than total bond when stocks go down. Just look at 2008. Though the poster may be joking, no bonds, not even treasuries, reliably go up when stocks go down. PJW Nope, I'm not joking. Treasuries have basically zero correlation to equities except when equities are d...
by grap0013
Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?
Replies: 22
Views: 1498

Re: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?

Ok, so I see you have Fido with a brokerage link. Then you absolutely should tilt to international too if you are committing to it. Direct all contributions to VISVX. Every time you hit the 5% upper band of your desired US allocation do a swap from your standard account to your brokerage account to ...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 07, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?
Replies: 22
Views: 1498

Re: Final portfolio construction: Add SCV or Increase equity exposure?

I think there are 2 good ways to add a tilt. Do 50:50 as livesoft suggests or 100% like myself. Random percentages like 15% I believe puts you at increased risk for tinkering and doing worse IMO. I also think if you have to ask to do the tilt you are not ready. Do some more reading and thinking firs...
by grap0013
Tue Jun 07, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?
Replies: 22
Views: 2286

Re: Total Bond vs Intermediate Treasuries?

Go with treasuries. They go up more than total bond when stocks go down. Just look at 2008.
by grap0013
Sat May 28, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Other Than Finances [Fun things to do]
Replies: 38
Views: 3052

Re: Other Than Finances [Fun things to do]

Are there BHs who find they don't enjoy too many things? Apart from my work, the only things I like are traveling, reading, investing and sex. Not into food/restaurants or sports (doing or watching). My current boyfriend says I am the only person he knows who doesn't have any hobbies, so I am follo...
by grap0013
Sat May 28, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding a tilt--which international fund to use?
Replies: 65
Views: 4260

Re: Adding a tilt--which international fund to use?

My experience is that these low-volume things are a PITA when it comes to portfolio management and accumulation. I would not own GVAL at all. It will be interesting to see if anybody else reaches the same conclusion. I concur. Keep this business simple. Why not just use SFILX as your sole dev. inte...
by grap0013
Tue May 03, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Can "Smart Beta" Go Horribly Wrong?
Replies: 37
Views: 5310

Re: How Can "Smart Beta" Go Horribly Wrong?

Very interesting presentation by Arnott. I think DFA, AQR, and RA all basically agree on the core elements of this stuff. The debates about nomenclature, smart beta, marketing etc... are immaterial. I'd wager there will be times when each of the companies appear to have superior strategies but I bet...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns
Replies: 22
Views: 2887

Re: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns

Vanguard's white paper on PE1 vs. PE10 had r2 of 0.36 and 0.41 for predicting returns. A value of 1 has perfect predictability basically. I think 0.05 is a very small difference. Sometimes PE1 and PE10 do not agree. With a 0.05 difference I'd wager PE10 is probably a little more right 55% of the tim...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

We're on the same team here grap0013 but do you really trust that E? The three Chinese companies in the top ten of that fund are 2 of the big four state owned banks and state owned China mobile. The state owned companies (and more heavily subsidized/controlled) have less incentive to satisfy the in...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

True, you don't need to know if the fund invests in China, Chile or Czechoslovakia to invest. You don't even need t know the name of the fund. All you really need is the symbol, VWO. And maybe a chart or some anecdotal information get the timing right. Speaking of China. Some of these EM funds have...
by grap0013
Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5910

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR Kool-Aid?

Larry Swedroe, who thinks highly of this fund, I think said that he himself had only put 3% of his portfolio into it. Although he might had said later that he had increased it. With 3% does it even make a difference in the entire portfolio? I was under the impression that you need at least 5-10% in...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How strong is your belief in AQR?
Replies: 47
Views: 5910

Re: How strong is your belief in AQR?

I can think of a few broad categories: A) You will not take any and stick to traditional Vanguard index funds. B) Use specialty AQR/DFA fund like QSPIX(?) the alternative fund style that is supposedly uncorrelated to traditional stock bonds. But keep this below ~20% of your portfolio. C) Will switc...
by grap0013
Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^Does not matter for our purposes. GDP and stocks returns have zero correlation or possibly even a negative correlation if I recall correctly. If you spend too much time looking at things that do not matter you may only convince yourself that they do matter and make a poor decision because of it.
by grap0013
Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I'm not a huge fan of making moves based on PE ratios. I concur for the most part. I haven't not done anything personally with this information, but for those doing RBD strategies or deciding what to put it taxable accounts I think one can tilt the scales in their favor a little bit with PEs. With ...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

BTW, DGS is already up more than 21% since the purchase noted at the beginning of this thread. Now that Vanguard Portfolio Watch actually made a valid update this morning (it was wrong all weekend), I can see that I am slightly overweight in emerging markets. Maybe it is time to sell? :twisted: gra...
by grap0013
Mon Apr 11, 2016 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Aren't the fundamentals still there for EM to be a very good long-term investment (40+ yrs.). Yes, EM is still very attractively priced IMO. EM has fallen ~50% real over the past 5 years. It will take a lot more than this recent uptick to make it expensive. EM value in particular is still attractiv...
by grap0013
Sun Apr 10, 2016 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm Addicted [to investing and personal finance]
Replies: 64
Views: 9148

Re: I'm Addicted

I can relate. I spent a lot of time yesterday looking at this: https://am.jpmorgan.com/blob-gim/1383280028969/83456/jp-littlebook.pdf It's a little bit connected to my job, and I'm eight months from retirement so I don't feel too guilty goggling at the flat screen, but yeah. Can be addicting. Not t...
by grap0013
Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

livesoft wrote:The DGS purchased with a 2016 Roth IRA contribution (as noted earlier in this thread) is now up 14.4%.

However, the shares of VBR I purchased in 2016 are up EVEN MORE! :twisted:

Is it time to sell? ;)


I hope you didn't! Since your post DGS is +6.97% while VBR is +4.81% :twisted:
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: DGS index changes (EM SmallCap increasing Chinese %)
Replies: 2
Views: 295

Re: DGS index changes (EM SmallCap increasing Chinese %)

Don't put all your EM holdings in one basket! :-) I have about 5% in DGS and not changing a thing.
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value
Replies: 27
Views: 3329

Re: Emerging Markets Small Cap Value

My two favorite EM SCV funds are DGS and EEMS. I like some EM LCV too though and I would not exclude it. Too much tracking error with EWX and I think their index construction or trading policies may have some deficiencies. EM is a hard space due to country weightings, cap vs. value, etc.... Therefor...
by grap0013
Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^ Don't fret, you may get another whack at lower prices. EM can drop like a rock. Although I have not heard a single member of the general public talking about how terrible EM was to invest in. Therefore, my indicator has told me we have surpassed a permanent nadir in prices. BTW, one cannot really ...
by grap0013
Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

So far so good. My fundamental EM value fund SFENX is up ~12% since my opening post in this thread. If it goes to +20% I'm starting a newsletter. 8-)
by grap0013
Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 22148

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

^Right. I don't care how much money VG or AQR makes. I'm most concerned about numero uno.

I don't want to win the powerball because I don't want to pay all those government "fees" on my winnings. :D
by grap0013
Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 22148

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Sounds like a total rip-off. I would put the probability that AQR can beat that 1.75% hurdle as very very low. So far you are wrong. :twisted: Yes but it has a history of less than 2.5 years. Anything that is highly leveraged can go spectacularly wrong when market conditions change. How much of thi...
by grap0013
Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 17575

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Although diversification across non-highly correlating asset classes is the winning strategy no matter what the investment horizon, you should note that diversification across equity asset classes is actually more important as the investment horizon shortens. This is because any one asset class can...
by grap0013
Thu Feb 18, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 17575

Re: Disappearing premiums!

Nice article Larry. One of my favorites you have written. There are no certainties only probabilities. If 1000 people take a medication it may save 20 lives and cause severe harm to 8 people. It's statistically significant. Chances are the 20 people are not the same people as the 8 people. Does that...
by grap0013
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1079
Views: 134340

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I learned that they do not believe that this issue will be resolved for perhaps two years, as the people drawing up the rules are lawyers and don't understand the differences of leverage based on risk, so leveraging a one month bill is very different than leveraging a 30 year bond or stocks. The in...
by grap0013
Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yeah, I Timed...UPDATE
Replies: 29
Views: 5343

Re: Yeah, I Timed...

So last Monday I moved 25k in my 401k out of bonds and into the S&P. It's just a few percent of our portfolio but it was purely a move to leverage the drop in the markets. Will move it all back when it goes up 10%. If your strategy is to buy low, why not buy emerging markets instead of the S&am...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors
Replies: 168
Views: 22148

Re: QSPIX Nightmare - Closed Off to Retail Investors

Some interesting developments... Scottrade received abrupt notice from AQR yesterday (Jan 27) that QSPIX/QSPNX/QMNIX were being closed effective immediately, to ALL investors, not just new investors. All orders for these funds placed Jan 27 from Scottrade were rejected by AQR. Meanwhile, strangely,...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 566

Re: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

> But I just googled "make slideshow online" and got a bunch of results that look promising for any platform. I did this first also. Be careful to read the reviews to find out which ones install crapware. Me too, that's why I came here and was looking for some personal testimonies on user...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 566

Re: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

wilshuer wrote:If you're on Windows check out Microsoft Movie Maker, it's free, possibly already on your computer. Have used many times for this purpose, allows output directly to load to youtube.


I'm on Windows 10 and Movie Maker is not supported by it. Keep 'em coming folks! Thanks!
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to make a free slideshow with music?
Replies: 10
Views: 566

Best way to make a free slideshow with music?

Please share the best way to make a free slideshow with music in the background?

I'm thinking PowerPoint, but maybe not because some may want to view it on their phones.

It's for a very sick relative that needs some inspiration.

Thanks so much!
by grap0013
Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?
Replies: 31
Views: 2484

Re: for slice and dicers - anyone moving into Em Mkt or HY?

You must not have heard?! I have already called the bottom in EM: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=182107 Have I done anything different about my feelings on this? Nope. Set targets, adhere to targets. Full disclosure: EM allocation 2010-2014: 25% EM allocation 2015: 22.5% (...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
grap0013 wrote:Ha! I have to mix it up a little bit instead of always talking about SCV QSPIX! :twisted:


FTFY :D


Lol! :beer
by grap0013
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 193
Views: 26262

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Ha! I have to mix it up a little bit instead of always talking about SCV! :twisted:

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