Search found 1777 matches

by grap0013
Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1114
Views: 149356

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

C'mon grap, if you want to decrease drawdowns you need some QMHIX! Come over to the dark side...... :twisted: Well I don't have much time to decide. I'm 15 basis points away from my lower rebalancing band of QSPIX. I'd have to either add 5% QSPIX to get back to 20% or now would be as good as time a...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 36
Views: 4822

Re: the missing value premium

Just wondering if staying the course over the past two years has resulted in the value premium "re-appearing". It seems like it has the past few months... but a few months does not make a trend. Does the equity risk premium disappear and reappear? People treat these premiums like they sho...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5433

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

TIPS did not exist until 1997 so your backtest is synthetic. I would not give too much credit to a backtested synthetic performance with a 15 basis point advantage. The in vivo data for TIPS we have is that they were illiquid in 2008 and went down in value. When the S&*t is hitting the fan like...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500K milestone celebration
Replies: 73
Views: 6536

Re: 500K milestone celebration

I think he meant that when he officially became a Boglehead, he had about 50k. He now has 500k after the last few years of investing. I'll be a Debbie Downer! :twisted: I'm guessing the bulk of the gains came from saving not investing. What if the OP makes 450K per year? Then going from 50K to 500K...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1272
Views: 204602

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Just imagine if you had none of that silly blackbox QSPIX fund, grap. :) Congrats on a great year! You cleaned my clock at least: 7.2%. I know, I'm 32 basis points away from having to buy more QSPIX. Don't confuse strategy with outcome! I'm going to buy more even if it's painful. I know it will be ...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1272
Views: 204602

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

letsgobobby wrote:why don't we start a new one of these threads each calendar year? This is getting kind of silly.


Ha ha, maybe we should start a new "US stocks in freefall" thread while we are at it!

I think we should convert this thread into an absolute $$ lifetime cumulative returns thread! :twisted:
by grap0013
Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1272
Views: 204602

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

For 2016: +11.7% 100% stocks Over the average with small cap and emerging market allocations. Under the average with international developed and a few US funds I got rid off earlier in the year from pre-bogleheads. You may want to consider allocating some portion of your stocks into bonds or other ...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1272
Views: 204602

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

2016: 17%+ I had to suffer some minor SCV tracking error and some major EM value tracking error to earn it. EM value has sucked relative to EM and it really has sucked compared to basically everything else for a while. SFENX +31.89% in 2016 while VWO +11.55%. Tracking error works both ways. :wink: T...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5433

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

Also, respectfully, you are giving too much credit to small spreads in numbers. SD from 11.2 to 10.9 is statistical noise. Same goes for the 15 basis points.
by grap0013
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5433

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

You are overturning your bonds. Long protects against deflation and short/TIPS protect against inflation. Just hold ITT and you accomplish the same thing you are doing with more simplicity. Also, drop the REITS. Not needed, SCV has a good slug of them already. This gets you to: 20% lcb 20% scv 10% ...
by grap0013
Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5433

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

You are overturning your bonds. Long protects against deflation and short/TIPS protect against inflation. Just hold ITT and you accomplish the same thing you are doing with more simplicity. Also, drop the REITS. Not needed, SCV has a good slug of them already. This gets you to: 20% lcb 20% scv 10% i...
by grap0013
Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?
Replies: 32
Views: 2369

Re: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?

The Larry Portfolio only lost 2.84% in 2008: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=12%2F01%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflation...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10969

Re: A Private Message (PM) About Momentum Funds

Bogleheads: This morning I received a Private Message about momentum funds. I believe its message is worth considering (personal comments removed): I don't post much any more. Thankfully, I GOT the message many years ago and have been pleased, and thankful. This AQR stuff being promoted is a bad th...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10969

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just for fun, I just looked at VTI since QSPIX inception. 13 negative months. QSPIX had better returns than VTI in 12 of those 13 months. QMHIX had better returns than VTI in 10 of those 13 months. The one negative VTI month were QSPIX did worse, QMHIX was strongly positive.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10969

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

QMHIX has been around since 07/2013. That's about 40 months. The bulk of this fund's gains came 8/14 thru 1/15. About 5 months out of the 40. The rest of the time it has been down/flat. It's a little feast or famine. It does appear this momentum fund has momentum. It goes down most days since I've b...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6528

Re: Bonds suck

Thanks for the tips, all. I guess I was just disappointed lately because I've seen losses due to the bonds when that money would've been growing (albeit, slowly) had I put it in a high-yield savings account. This isn't my retirement account; it's just sort of a medium-term place to stash money. It ...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 134
Views: 10969

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just posting and updating my thoughts on the TS MOM fund QMHIX. I get the logic of it but I cannot get myself to buy some. Per Larry's new book, during the worst 10 drawdowns of a 60:40 portfolio over the last 135 years TS MOM produced positive returns in 8 of them. Looks like a good diversifier but...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?
Replies: 52
Views: 5525

Re: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?

If you are in your 30's this money should be sitting there for at least 20 years. This mistake will be a blip. I disagree. OP, I'm not going to coddle you. I do not want to lambaste you either. You should do a honest self assessment of the situation though. This will help you stay the course the ne...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8476

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Shoot my retirement contribution went thru a day early due to the holiday. Missed a 3% sale. Maybe EM will be lower in 2 weeks! :twisted:
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8476

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

And DGS continues to go down while IJS continues to go up. My patient rebalancing looks like it may pay off.... Interesting 2 days between SCV and DGS. Spread yesterday 5+% in opposite directions and more negative correlation today. It's not that common for these two to be in opposite directions, w...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8476

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying? I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then. You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted: Okay, I'm...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8476

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 155
Views: 16627

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

Lieutenant Basically, only buy CDs as they always are higher yielding. And can of course buy small amounts too. For munis buy individual bonds Larry What about flight to quality benefits of treasuries? When times are good you'll lag overall with treasuries vs. CDs. Rebalance by selling stocks and y...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4745

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

SCV is doing better than TSM this year. Sometimes it will not. It definitely diversifies your return stream. Technically speaking, adding SCV in addition to TSM in a portfolio concentrates the portfolio, and thus the return stream, because SCV is a subset of TSM. It makes the portfolio more subject...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4745

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

...Say I'm 80% or 90% convinced... If you are 80% or 90% convinced that SCV has an above average chance of outperforming then maybe you shouldn't do it. If you are 100% sure that SCV has an 80%-90% chance out outperforming over your investment lifetime and sure you can withstand 15 years of under p...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 78
Views: 6785

Re: How much international?

I'm 50:50. I am not going to kid myself and think I can predict the future. That works best for me personally though.

I think 0-60% international are all fine answers. If eg 13.7% international allows one to stay the course then more power to ya!
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 78
Views: 6785

Re: How much international?

So I don't know what to say about any of this, because there are all these books out there that say with great assurance that international investing reduces risk, and all I can say is that when I look at the data for myself, I don't see where it ever did . It sure didn't help in 2008-2009. You are...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4745

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

I'd say SCV has a 90% chance of outperforming TSM over the next 20 years. If SCV does underperform it won't be by much and I won't notice. I don't have any large caps other than EM value. I don't look at large cap performance either. I have no idea if SCV has done better than the TSM the past 3 or 5...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 04, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?
Replies: 25
Views: 1913

Re: Higher expected returns = Lower expected losses?

Historically, if using long-term value metrics, by choosing investments that have "higher expected" returns you have actually experienced lower draw-downs on average and by the maximum. The chart below dos a great job displaying this. Now does that mean anything moving forward, who knows?...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1114
Views: 149356

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^Not sure. Don't look now but equities are down another ~1% today. 5 year treasuries +0.17% and QSPIX +0.70%.
by grap0013
Wed Nov 02, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1559

Re: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?

Looks good, I'll give that link a chance. Thank you!
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1559

Re: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises

Bump. Somebody must know where this is....
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1114
Views: 149356

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

^^ Nice matjen, I was just about to post the same. Fund is doing what it does best. Diversification.
by grap0013
Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?
Replies: 6
Views: 1559

Larry Swedroe Presentation on Crises? Link?

Anybody have a link to Larrry's video 45-60 min where he takes us through a history lesson in crises and how the market just keeps marching higher? I saw this a couple of years ago and it was great. I cannot seem to find it now. It's fitting this time of year and I could really use this for some fam...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 28, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1817

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

Ok thanks. Like you I also have a significant percent of my international in SFENX (FNDE for me). FNDC makes more sense in some respects, for example both FNDC and FNDE classify South Korea as EM, while SCHC calls it DM which makes me pointlessly overweight in Korea. Easy choice then, I would comfo...
by grap0013
Fri Oct 28, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1817

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

Basically I decided it was a wash and went SCHC because I felt the lower expense ratio was guaranteed. How did you choose SFILX? By default mostly. I use a brokerage link through fidelity in my retirement account and ETFs are a no-no there. However, looking at those options, SCHC is cap weighted an...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3402

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted: No-no. This is a new ALL CAPS factor! Paul Better test it ex post, t stats, internationally, and see if it is persistent, pervasive, and robust. Also, check if it has a logic story. Factors are vetted better than tho...
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34227

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

^I guess I'll do your dirty work: http://samuelssonsrapport.se/wp-content ... 088140.pdf

Check out pages 5, 14, 28 in particular.
by grap0013
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3402

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted: No-no. This is a new ALL CAPS factor! Paul Better test it ex post, t stats, internationally, and see if it is persistent, pervasive, and robust. Also, check if it has a logic story. Factors are vetted better than tho...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34227

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Where does one get the historical PE ratios for Emerging Markets? Is VEMAX (Vanguard Emerging Markets Admiral Index fund) a good proxy to track performance? I've only seen historical numbers given by authors. However, one can easily get a 1 year PE by building a free portfolio on Morningstar and lo...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34227

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

The other thing is that EM still has good valuations after having been crushed for years. A 45% gain only makes up for 30% of losses, and PXH/SFENX have tons of losses since their founding. Yes, but the marching orders from the original post in this topic were to buy immediately so as to put one's ...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34227

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

From the opening post SFENX is up now +45.87%. EM value is particularly on a tear. On a daily basis SFENX is up more than my other EM holdings the majority of the time. You must be out of band by now then; when are you going to trim/rebalance out? (It seems like a reasonable question since portfoli...
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS
Replies: 35
Views: 3402

Re: A new tilt to consider - ALL CAPS

Outperformance is due to smaller market capitalization and value tilts!! :twisted:
by grap0013
Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 223
Views: 34227

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

From the opening post SFENX is up now +45.87%. EM value is particularly on a tear. On a daily basis SFENX is up more than my other EM holdings the majority of the time.
by grap0013
Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund
Replies: 17
Views: 1817

Re: Tilters: Help choose an international small cap fund

I dig SFILX. It is my only int dev holding. Reasonable cost, low turnover, lots of stocks, low relative volatility, and a value tilt.
by grap0013
Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 29549

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Firechief I very much disagree as it is very actionable and we have been doing it for 20 years, using the EXPECTED returns and expected distributions to make long term adjustments based on MCS. In fact I have no idea how you can make any investment decisions on AA without doing so. We use the outco...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 29549

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

HomerJ, I think Larry is saying that the expected return is the best estimate we have. Of course it will be wrong but we can at least assign probabilities to how wrong it is and over large sample sizes and long periods of time you will do better betting on probabilities. If you want to bet that mar...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low Volatility Funds - Should I sell them?
Replies: 13
Views: 933

Re: Low Volatility Funds - Should I sell them?

I am retired and when I decided to build my equity portfolio around them my thought was that I would not mind sacrificing a bit of return to get lower volatility, specially in bear markets where one needs it the most. I have to admit that I was shocked when I saw that they were returning more than ...
by grap0013
Mon Oct 24, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 29549

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

whodidntante wrote:So I should be 100% EM, then? :mrgreen: :moneybag


Ha ha, can you imagine the tracking error?

5 year annualized returns ending 1998:

US +21.5%
EM -6.12%

5 year annualized returns ending 2007:

US +13.8%
EM +36.38%

Brutal.

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