Search found 1799 matches

by grap0013
Tue Feb 21, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3879

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

. In deciding on an EM allocation an investor seems to need to make a decision on wether s/he views South Korea as a "developed" or "developing" country. Here are two EM funds that view South Korea as "developed" : - Vanguard Emerging Market (VWO) - Powershares FTSE RA...
by grap0013
Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 4495

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

So wouldn't PXH try to perform like the "17.8% = FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Index" you showed? Does it? M* shows it only going back to 2007 - so I can't compare your results. Although from PXH inception on 9/27/2007 to date PXH closely resembles DFEVX. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/...
by grap0013
Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 4495

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

Does anybody know much about TLTE? Thanks! I thought about TLTE. Given the lack of emerging market factor data, I think the best way to get at what factor exposures of a fund are is to look at equivelent US (or developed funds). For TLTE there is a US version TILT, for which we have data going back...
by grap0013
Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 4495

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

Is there a thread for TLTE somewhere? This fund looks pretty interesting for a one-stop EM value fund. It's like a mid cap value fund similar to DFEVX. Low turnover with 2000+ holdings. Would be easier to manage rather than an equal parts strategy of SFENX:QEELX:DGS:EEMS. Does anybody know much abou...
by grap0013
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 4495

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

VSIAX, QSMLX

SFILX

SFENX, QEELX, DGS

QSPIX
by grap0013
Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation
Replies: 29
Views: 2785

Re: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation

You sound like you might be subject to suffering from tracking error based on your posts... I'm not sure I understand what you mean there. Would you mind explaining that? Is the S&P 600 a difficult index to track? Nope, I mean watching something outperform your portfolio for years and years and...
by grap0013
Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation
Replies: 29
Views: 2785

Re: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation

Too much home country bias OP. Expected returns are higher for international currently based on valuations. I'd argue you could omit the large caps... Funny you should mention that. On my way home, I was mulling the idea of something like 60% S&P 600 (blend, not the value version) and 40% total...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 31, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces' "bond tent" to protect against sequence risk
Replies: 16
Views: 2849

Re: Kitces' "bond tent" to protect against sequence risk

I see arguments for more stocks and arguments for less stocks in retirement. I'm just gonna save a moderate amount and probably retire with something like 30:20:50 stocks:alternatives:bonds and withdraw 4% nominal. Whatever that gives me I'm going to spend.
by grap0013
Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation
Replies: 29
Views: 2785

Re: Your thoughts on an aggressive asset allocation

Too much home country bias OP. Expected returns are higher for international currently based on valuations. I'd argue you could omit the large caps, increase tilts, increase international, probably add 20% bonds AND still get higher returns with better diversification than what you proposed. Plus yo...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 4178

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

Angst wrote:^ You're an honest man Nisi. Nothing hypothetical about that!


It was easy backtesting SCV for the past 5-10 years prior to 11/4/16 and say it was a dead strategy. Now with the whopper 2016 for SCV it's going to be hard to say it doesn't work for a while! :twisted:
by grap0013
Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 4178

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

^^^ I think your backtest is contrary to the point you were trying to make. A Sharpe Ratio difference of 0.01 is not going to be felt by an investor. However, I'll take that extra 0.09% annualized return anytime. Works out to several hundred dollars a year for me personally.
by grap0013
Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 4178

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

^^ Thanks much, makes sense to me!
by grap0013
Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 4178

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

I also see PXSV has about 350 stocks with turnover ~120% since "the change". I miss the old fundamental version of PXSV. I'd put all of my US SCV :moneybag into that. We have the Vanguard SCV fund available through standard 401K options so that's good enough for me in this space. Now, for ...
by grap0013
Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)
Replies: 31
Views: 4178

Re: PXSV is now super valuey (even more than RZV)

. Some additional numbers From 8/1998 to 12/2016 Annualized returns (%) / SD .9.7 / 19.0 = S&P 600 Value Index 10.0 / 26.1 = S&P 600 Pure Value Index .9.2 / 18.5 = Russell 2000 Value Index .7.9 / 21.0 = Russell 2000 Pure Value Index 12.8 / 18.9 = Russell Fundamental US Small Company Index F...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 23, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Its interesting the way you broke out the QSPIX. How does it work for QLEIX (Long/Short fund)? How do we calculate the Value/Size/Profitability premiums on QLEIX? Not sure. I have not thought much about the long/short funds. I hedge my tilting implementation companies. I'm about 40% Vanguard funds,...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Ok folks, after much deliberation and research I'm buying a 5% slug of TS MOM. The evidence is sound and I see the benefit. I have a much better understanding of this topic now. In vivo correlations looks pretty and I see the role in the overall portfolio. I'm taking my 20% QSPIX and doing QSPIX:QMH...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 19, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 34
Views: 3471

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

TIPS are insurance against unexpected inflation. The cost of that insurance is rather low at the moment. It's odd to say insurance provides no benefit just because your house didn't burn down or just because you didn't get sick or die or just because your car didn't crash. I know what my term life ...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2213

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

Hey, wait a minute I invest in AQR HV Managed Futures and it was down like -12% not -2%..... I'm thinking about adding more. On the bright side, QMHIX's correlation to other assets has decreased......because it went down while everything else went up or stayed flat. 8-) Gosh, it's hard for me not t...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 18, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2213

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

An alternative investment is an asset that is not one of the conventional investment types, such as stocks, bonds and cash. -- Investopedia Bogleheads: The investment industry, always on the look-out for ways to make more money, has introduced a plethora of alternate funds to attract investors hopi...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 34
Views: 3471

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

I agree. I don't like TIPS. I've seen no benefit in the real world. Only theoretical. They did bad in 2008. CPI measures do not come down from the heavens so will they really track it? I like intermediate term treasuries as to hedge both deflation and inflation. Equities can also stave off inflatio...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 34
Views: 3471

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

On paper, TIPS seem like the best type of bond. I have read all of the wonderful characteristics. Protection in both inflation and deflation, no default risk, etc. Swedroe and Swensen are huge fans. However, in the real world, are they really as wonderful as they seem? I have read some worries from...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: what local pharmacy?
Replies: 57
Views: 3048

Re: what local pharmacy?

Ask your healthcare provider if you can start filling your new prescription (or change in dose) now but delay in taking it for a few weeks. Tell them that you use mail order pharmacy and there are often minor delays in this process and you want to stock up a little bit to be prepared for these inevi...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1182
Views: 162629

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

C'mon grap, if you want to decrease drawdowns you need some QMHIX! Come over to the dark side...... :twisted: Well I don't have much time to decide. I'm 15 basis points away from my lower rebalancing band of QSPIX. I'd have to either add 5% QSPIX to get back to 20% or now would be as good as time a...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the missing value premium
Replies: 36
Views: 4884

Re: the missing value premium

Just wondering if staying the course over the past two years has resulted in the value premium "re-appearing". It seems like it has the past few months... but a few months does not make a trend. Does the equity risk premium disappear and reappear? People treat these premiums like they sho...
by grap0013
Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5590

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

TIPS did not exist until 1997 so your backtest is synthetic. I would not give too much credit to a backtested synthetic performance with a 15 basis point advantage. The in vivo data for TIPS we have is that they were illiquid in 2008 and went down in value. When the S&*t is hitting the fan like...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 500K milestone celebration
Replies: 74
Views: 7157

Re: 500K milestone celebration

I think he meant that when he officially became a Boglehead, he had about 50k. He now has 500k after the last few years of investing. I'll be a Debbie Downer! :twisted: I'm guessing the bulk of the gains came from saving not investing. What if the OP makes 450K per year? Then going from 50K to 500K...
by grap0013
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210614

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Just imagine if you had none of that silly blackbox QSPIX fund, grap. :) Congrats on a great year! You cleaned my clock at least: 7.2%. I know, I'm 32 basis points away from having to buy more QSPIX. Don't confuse strategy with outcome! I'm going to buy more even if it's painful. I know it will be ...
by grap0013
Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210614

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

letsgobobby wrote:why don't we start a new one of these threads each calendar year? This is getting kind of silly.


Ha ha, maybe we should start a new "US stocks in freefall" thread while we are at it!

I think we should convert this thread into an absolute $$ lifetime cumulative returns thread! :twisted:
by grap0013
Thu Jan 05, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210614

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

For 2016: +11.7% 100% stocks Over the average with small cap and emerging market allocations. Under the average with international developed and a few US funds I got rid off earlier in the year from pre-bogleheads. You may want to consider allocating some portion of your stocks into bonds or other ...
by grap0013
Wed Jan 04, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1288
Views: 210614

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

2016: 17%+ I had to suffer some minor SCV tracking error and some major EM value tracking error to earn it. EM value has sucked relative to EM and it really has sucked compared to basically everything else for a while. SFENX +31.89% in 2016 while VWO +11.55%. Tracking error works both ways. :wink: T...
by grap0013
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5590

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

Also, respectfully, you are giving too much credit to small spreads in numbers. SD from 11.2 to 10.9 is statistical noise. Same goes for the 15 basis points.
by grap0013
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5590

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

You are overturning your bonds. Long protects against deflation and short/TIPS protect against inflation. Just hold ITT and you accomplish the same thing you are doing with more simplicity. Also, drop the REITS. Not needed, SCV has a good slug of them already. This gets you to: 20% lcb 20% scv 10% ...
by grap0013
Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?
Replies: 72
Views: 5590

Re: What am I missing w/this back-tested asset allocation?

You are overturning your bonds. Long protects against deflation and short/TIPS protect against inflation. Just hold ITT and you accomplish the same thing you are doing with more simplicity. Also, drop the REITS. Not needed, SCV has a good slug of them already. This gets you to: 20% lcb 20% scv 10% i...
by grap0013
Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?
Replies: 32
Views: 2453

Re: Any Lazy portfolio can make profit even in 2008 crash?

The Larry Portfolio only lost 2.84% in 2008: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2016&lastMonth=12&endDate=12%2F01%2F2016&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflation...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 28, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A Private Message (PM) About Momentum Funds

Bogleheads: This morning I received a Private Message about momentum funds. I believe its message is worth considering (personal comments removed): I don't post much any more. Thankfully, I GOT the message many years ago and have been pleased, and thankful. This AQR stuff being promoted is a bad th...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just for fun, I just looked at VTI since QSPIX inception. 13 negative months. QSPIX had better returns than VTI in 12 of those 13 months. QMHIX had better returns than VTI in 10 of those 13 months. The one negative VTI month were QSPIX did worse, QMHIX was strongly positive.
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

QMHIX has been around since 07/2013. That's about 40 months. The bulk of this fund's gains came 8/14 thru 1/15. About 5 months out of the 40. The rest of the time it has been down/flat. It's a little feast or famine. It does appear this momentum fund has momentum. It goes down most days since I've b...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds suck
Replies: 46
Views: 6592

Re: Bonds suck

Thanks for the tips, all. I guess I was just disappointed lately because I've seen losses due to the bonds when that money would've been growing (albeit, slowly) had I put it in a high-yield savings account. This isn't my retirement account; it's just sort of a medium-term place to stash money. It ...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 12119

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Just posting and updating my thoughts on the TS MOM fund QMHIX. I get the logic of it but I cannot get myself to buy some. Per Larry's new book, during the worst 10 drawdowns of a 60:40 portfolio over the last 135 years TS MOM produced positive returns in 8 of them. Looks like a good diversifier but...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?
Replies: 52
Views: 5578

Re: I market timed & learned. Any Advice?

If you are in your 30's this money should be sitting there for at least 20 years. This mistake will be a blip. I disagree. OP, I'm not going to coddle you. I do not want to lambaste you either. You should do a honest self assessment of the situation though. This will help you stay the course the ne...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8555

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

Shoot my retirement contribution went thru a day early due to the holiday. Missed a 3% sale. Maybe EM will be lower in 2 weeks! :twisted:
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8555

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

And DGS continues to go down while IJS continues to go up. My patient rebalancing looks like it may pay off.... Interesting 2 days between SCV and DGS. Spread yesterday 5+% in opposite directions and more negative correlation today. It's not that common for these two to be in opposite directions, w...
by grap0013
Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8555

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying? I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then. You could have exchanged IJS for DGS. :twisted: Okay, I'm...
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]
Replies: 34
Views: 8555

Re: Today was an RBD ... [Really Bad Day]

livesoft wrote:... for at least one asset class. grap0013, were you buying?


I have no cash on hand. 100% of my paycheck contribution will go towards EM on Friday though. Maybe I'll get lucky and we will get a couple more RBDs so I get a cheaper price then.
by grap0013
Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 155
Views: 16999

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

Lieutenant Basically, only buy CDs as they always are higher yielding. And can of course buy small amounts too. For munis buy individual bonds Larry What about flight to quality benefits of treasuries? When times are good you'll lag overall with treasuries vs. CDs. Rebalance by selling stocks and y...
by grap0013
Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4921

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

SCV is doing better than TSM this year. Sometimes it will not. It definitely diversifies your return stream. Technically speaking, adding SCV in addition to TSM in a portfolio concentrates the portfolio, and thus the return stream, because SCV is a subset of TSM. It makes the portfolio more subject...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4921

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

...Say I'm 80% or 90% convinced... If you are 80% or 90% convinced that SCV has an above average chance of outperforming then maybe you shouldn't do it. If you are 100% sure that SCV has an 80%-90% chance out outperforming over your investment lifetime and sure you can withstand 15 years of under p...
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 80
Views: 7553

Re: How much international?

I'm 50:50. I am not going to kid myself and think I can predict the future. That works best for me personally though.

I think 0-60% international are all fine answers. If eg 13.7% international allows one to stay the course then more power to ya!
by grap0013
Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 80
Views: 7553

Re: How much international?

So I don't know what to say about any of this, because there are all these books out there that say with great assurance that international investing reduces risk, and all I can say is that when I look at the data for myself, I don't see where it ever did . It sure didn't help in 2008-2009. You are...
by grap0013
Fri Nov 04, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 51
Views: 4921

Re: Doubting Your Portfolio Tilts

I'd say SCV has a 90% chance of outperforming TSM over the next 20 years. If SCV does underperform it won't be by much and I won't notice. I don't have any large caps other than EM value. I don't look at large cap performance either. I have no idea if SCV has done better than the TSM the past 3 or 5...

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