Search found 756 matches

by gilgamesh
Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism
Replies: 44
Views: 3925

Re: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism

Where I would differ is that the economy is capitalistic even if the equity markets cease to be........ ..... Not because it isn't diagnosing a problem correctly but because our economy easily handles this sort of problem. What do you mean by the "economy is capitalistic"? What is economy? Will it ...
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 183
Views: 14955

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Another lesson might be that if a 1.2% drop in the stock market gives you significant anxiety, perhaps the stock market is not for you. Think about how you might respond to a 50% drop. I don't think OP came up with that allocation, without ever encountering the "visualize a 50% drop in equities" ad...
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 183
Views: 14955

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Hi everyone, I lost $7000 today in one day. My portfolio is below. Ironically, I've just returned from a store where I was arguing with a cashier over 0.50 cents! Got home and saw that the portfolio went down by $7k... :oops: Should I change the allocation if this kind of downswing bothers me? :con...
by gilgamesh
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Gilgamesh, there have been many threads on factor investing. When Larry Swedroe used to hold court over the factor threads, he felt that factors, particularly Value, were a combination of a behavioral story and a risk story. He often said that while Value wasn't a free lunch, it was a free stop at ...
by gilgamesh
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

So pretty much what I get out of Siamond's excellent work is that Small/Mid-Cap Value and Dividend Growth are mighty fine strategies and that High Dividend Yield beats the market by a little. If you were to reword this sentence using past tenses, then yes, this seems like a good bottomline. Siamond...
by gilgamesh
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13597

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

If only taxable account is left, ... this person would need to save 4.42% more of their monthly wages, correct? Hopefully OP or #Cruncher with their prowess can come with a spreadsheet accounting for all this ... I considered this, gilgamesh, but decided against it because it would be too complex, ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5567

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

I think we all learned a very valuable lesson in 2008: the only bonds that were really liquid were nominal treasuries. Everything else was subject to convulsive freezing. It should not have come as a surprise but I think that in the midst of the meltdown, many of us were pretty surprised to see how...
by gilgamesh
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Siamond So, the good attributes of dividend growth seen in the span tested cannot be explained away by any factor influence? It's unique to the dividend growth group? Or is this not correct? This is a silly question, any parameters that could predict the period where dividend-growth will outperform ...
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Honesty like that is rare!"
Replies: 47
Views: 6974

Re: "Honesty like that is rare!"

FrugalInvestor wrote:
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:16 am
....if the advisor is right (and he proabbly is) then he's just trying to 'fool' the client into doing what's right.
Well put!
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Jbolden,

I deleted my response, as it really is taking this off topic.
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

I am surprised with your standard deviation conclusions as well, as immediately after the above quoted paragraph, the Vanguard paper says this: The relative volatility of dividend-oriented equities has also varied considerably with time. [...] Yes, I saw it, and I am not quite sure where they are c...
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13597

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

If only taxable account is left, as per #Cruncher data (retirement income = current income-savings), assuming 25% tax bracket from $48,350 to $80k, this person would need to save 4.42% more of their monthly wages, correct? For a portfolio with 5.5% real vs 6.9%. For us Bogleheads, and for some of u...
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13597

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

If only taxable account is left, as per #Cruncher data (retirement income = current income-savings), assuming 25% tax bracket from $48,350 to $80k, this person would need to save 4.42% more of their monthly wages, correct? For a portfolio with 5.5% real vs 6.9%.
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Siamond, then why didn't the Vanguard paper find the good attributes you did with the dividend-growth equites?...is it the time period tested? Well, it's a matter of perspective. A lot of material in the Vanguard paper is about debunking myths like 'dividend income matters more than total return', ...
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

What is frequently overlooked, however, is that the performance of these strategies tends to vary over time and from one period to the next, and that the majority of the outperformance came from just one period: the technology stock bear market of 1999–2000, when both strategies experienced a less ...
by gilgamesh
Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Whether it be 1990 to now or 1997 to now, are we/Vanguard seriously drawing conclusions from such a narrow span? Is that reasonable?
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Honesty like that is rare!"
Replies: 47
Views: 6974

Re: "Honesty like that is rare!"

Behavioral finance
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 11, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Siamond, then why didn't the Vanguard paper find the good attributes you did with the dividend-growth equites?...is it the time period tested? Well, it's a matter of perspective. A lot of material in the Vanguard paper is about debunking myths like 'dividend income matters more than total return', ...
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 104
Views: 7334

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

Siamond, then why didn't the Vanguard paper find the good attributes you did with the dividend-growth equites?...is it the time period tested?
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A poll: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 270
Views: 21252

Re: A poll: How much money do you want to retire?

Target $2.5M at age 58. I am almost 48 now. I am not counting the home as I will not have spending money on it...will go from one big house to two smaller ones.
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?
Replies: 203
Views: 9768

Re: Do you count vehicle equity in net worth?

My Porsche, Audi and Lexus is not part of my equity....the same way I don't count the money I paid for food as money until I take a dump...that money is gone. P.S: I know it's not for everyone, given the second hand value of the vehicles, however it helps me to put my car purchases in perspective......
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 04, 2017 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ
Replies: 25
Views: 3812

Re: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ

(Edit: I didn't even see the previous two reply when I first posted it) I hear this "hitting records' as a big thing....but, inflation alone is enough for that...now, if the unthinkable happens and companies indeed make a profit, it's even better. Hitting records is inevitable...but I understand, so...
by gilgamesh
Fri Aug 04, 2017 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

To me, a dividend is what a company gives out when they have a surplus of cash they don't know what better to do with. To me, in many cases, a dividend is what keeps a company from wasting money on acquisitions in a futile attempt to find growth in a mature industry. Whatever makes you guys sleep b...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

Of course there are extremes....but what's the point in talking about someone who has $10M going into retirement but only needs $1M? What does such an example convey? Some people are motivated to succeed more than I am, for instance. I don't think that's a bad thing... No it's not a bad thing, but ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

So you your advice for all is, work until you save enough to have a SWR of 2.5%. Not necessarily, but you raise a good point: why is Jeff Bezos still running amazon.com when he could retire yesterday? Does someone need to have a serious talk with that guy? When some people retire, they sell their b...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

What if the $10M guy has 20 times the expenses of the $1M guy? Who went into retirement with the ideal amount relative to expenses? Did the $1M guy go in with ten times lower nest egg than necessary relative to his spending? Or the $10M stayed on the work force much longer than necessary? Are we as...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

Hi, I am confused as to the advantage of taking dividends vs reinvesting dividends and selling equities? For example say a person is in retirement and is in the withdrawal phase, why not reinvest the dividends and withdrawal ~4% a year? In this case, the OP apparently has a larger taxable account t...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

I think that the conclusions reached from a lot of these discussions get muddled up because we mix up situations that are in fact very different, e.g. not keeping in mind that there is a huge difference between somebody entering retirement with a million $ portfolio and another entering with a $10 ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21307

Re: Living Off Dividends

Hi, I am confused as to the advantage of taking dividends vs reinvesting dividends and selling equities? For example say a person is in retirement and is in the withdrawal phase, why not reinvest the dividends and withdrawal ~4% a year? In this case, the OP apparently has a larger taxable account t...
by gilgamesh
Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15340

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

... annual capital gain is a highly volatile asset while dividend yield is mostly low volatility decreasing very infrequently. Dividend yield while not perfectly adjusted for inflation tends to increase at least at the speed of inflation (and usually substantially more) over periods as short as 5 y...
by gilgamesh
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15340

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

dividends have added 71% to the total return of the s & p 500 over the last 50-60 years. I am not going to waste my time explaining all the misunderstanding surrounding 'dividends'. I'll leave that to the OP. I just want to pick a few sentences here and there to try to make a point, ...hoping t...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15340

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

I like dividends on a (relatively small) portion of my investments. I used to collect dividend paying stocks. I saw that as an alternative to collecting beer cans, corvettes, impressionist paintings, stamps, Matchbox cars or vacation homes. My preference was to buy stocks that I would see often in ...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15340

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

Our retirement income streams will include rents, royalties and dividends. We like income streams and there is no misunderstanding. Sure, we can and will sell shares to fund retirement as well. I see no problem with appreciating dividends as part of a total return strategy. I think the misunderstan...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k for small business with 3 employees????
Replies: 5
Views: 713

Re: 401k for small business with 3 employees????

Simple IRA is very easy to implement. But safe harbor 401k is only marginally more difficult but will allow you to put away more. I will be switching from a simple IRA to safe harbor 401k. I only have 7 employees. Currently it's elective 3% match, with 401k safe harbor I will do non-elective 3%. I w...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 4066

Re: Do Bonds have a place is basic expenses covered by income streams?

>........... Second a full genetic health assessment (approximately $25,000) which could greatly influence my health and well being going forward. I already have sort of an example of this in my life today. While many of the people I know won't even do their annual physical, thanks to our income le...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jun 20, 2017 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 4066

Re: Do Bonds have a place is basic expenses covered by income streams?

>........... Second a full genetic health assessment (approximately $25,000) which could greatly influence my health and well being going forward. I already have sort of an example of this in my life today. While many of the people I know won't even do their annual physical, thanks to our income le...
by gilgamesh
Tue Jun 20, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?
Replies: 69
Views: 4066

Re: Do Bonds have a place if basic expenses are covered by income streams?

I think emergency funds and psychological reasons, which are already mentioned, are the two reasons not to have everything in equity in the scenario provided by OP. Emergency fund is there for unexpected expenses and to cover cost if income stream is compromised, only the former applies in retiremen...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 735
Views: 220842

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Thank you for posting that thread. It was very useful. Having read that, I think further discussion on smoothing VPW is not a good idea here. Everything that needs to be said has been said there.
by gilgamesh
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 735
Views: 220842

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I was hoping there might be a way to have the side portfolio skew towards having more for the first ten years as well. Thank you for letting me know it's not possible. Of course it is possible. You just introduce some amount of risk. longinvest says it "could easily leave the retiree in an und...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jun 18, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 735
Views: 220842

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

I wish there is a way to reduce its sensitivity to previous years market correction/crash (even if it was just the year to quickly rebound,...I know, VPW corrects it immediately after recovery) and smooth it out based on average performance within certain constraints (limits placed in terms of time...
by gilgamesh
Sun Jun 18, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 735
Views: 220842

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

Longinvest Thank you for the detailed reply. My plan is almost identical to yours except the pension part. I just didn't know what method of withdrawal I would implement for my side portfolio. My non-rolling TIPS ladder does account for my desire to have more for the first ten years of retirement. I...
by gilgamesh
Sat Jun 17, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dynamic Retirement Spending Adjustments: Small-But-Permanent Vs Large-But-Temporary" by Derek Tharp at kitces.com
Replies: 4
Views: 717

Re: "Dynamic Retirement Spending Adjustments: Small-But-Permanent Vs Large-But-Temporary" by Derek Tharp at kitces.com

Thanks for pointing out this article. My take-away is that the total amount of money that one can withdraw over retirement years remains roughly the same. One can take a constant amount through all years. Or ... One can take more in the beginning if one commits to taking less later on. Or ... One c...
by gilgamesh
Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment fd]
Replies: 115
Views: 20531

Re: Smooth perpetual withdrawal from risky assets [endowment fd]

Hi Bogleheads, ******** Note that this is a theoretical experiment. My own objective is to have some fun with other Bogleheads playing with maths. I do not necessarily endorse using such a withdrawal strategy for retirement. Instead, my own suggestion for a (possibly early) retirement withdrawal st...
by gilgamesh
Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 735
Views: 220842

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal

Internally, VPW does calculate a long-term, asset-allocation-specific expected return rate, using the last century's real asset returns on US Stocks (5%) and Bonds (2%). This does not need to be precise at all. It just needs to give an approximate very long-term tangent of the graph. I've explained...
by gilgamesh
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5453

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

dbr wrote: Treating the worst case as the best case ought to compel everyone to just commit suicide right off.


I have to say I love this....from the perspective of the 4% SAFEMAX...
by gilgamesh
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safemax with varying AA
Replies: 41
Views: 2424

Re: Safemax with varying AA

Not non-sensical in my view at all. It's been my starting approach, and still generally my way, what with the step in income upon taking SS. My two links, yes were the VPW and Simba backtest data threads, but I meant to try a search for 'TIPS' at the top box on those threads. Much effort and discus...
by gilgamesh
Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5453

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

Dbr, You and I are in agreement. I'm just pointing out that as years progress, the investor will anchor on his current investment value or maximum value, and that could drop at any time. In the present, the investor is not thinking about where he started. Rather, he is thinking about where he curre...
by gilgamesh
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5453

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

Gilgamesh, That statement got my attention as well. I certainly think it is true that the longer the holding period, the more likely a positive outcome and the greater expected terminal wealth. But the dispersion of outcomes is way bigger! Moreover, we all tend to anchor on where we are now or what...