Search found 182 matches

by ge1
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Confused by GMO asset class forecasts?
Replies: 0
Views: 90

Confused by GMO asset class forecasts?

I enjoy reading Grantham's quarterly letters, but I have to admit I can't take his asset class return forecasts seriously anymore. Case in point: As per December 2012 his forecast had the following annualized real returns over the next 7 years: International Large Cap: 3.9% Emerging Market: 5.6% Now...
by ge1
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 3108

Re: Is it starting to smell like opportunity?

I have no idea but I used the recent declines to bring my allocations to stocks where it should be, I had maybe 15% of my portfolio in cash due to valuation concerns. That probably means we will see a much larger decline... I also make every now and then 'tactical' trades with small amounts (total l...
by ge1
Fri Feb 12, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your decline in Net Worth as of today?
Replies: 75
Views: 6146

Re: What is your decline in Net Worth as of today?

My net worth is close to all time high due to large contributions.

My total losses are probably close to 100k YTD. Doesn't bother me in the slightest, I was able to buy at lower prices.
by ge1
Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the long term S&P growth rate?
Replies: 10
Views: 666

Re: What is the long term S&P growth rate?

Thanks jimb, lots of good information and useful tools with the links provided. Will check this out. Completely understand that looking at the price growth only tells you little about the total return - all I am trying to do here is comparing the S&P today with S&P values in the past (which ...
by ge1
Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the long term S&P growth rate?
Replies: 10
Views: 666

Re: What is the long term S&P growth rate?

long_gamma wrote:This might be interest for you.

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/03/treps/


Excellent article, this is exactly what I was looking for (no actually more than that!). Thanks again.
by ge1
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the long term S&P growth rate?
Replies: 10
Views: 666

What is the long term S&P growth rate?

In order to get a sense if the market is "overvalued" or "cheap" at the current level, I like to discount the current value of the S&P 500 by the normal growth rate and compare the computed value with the actual value. Example: Using a 6% growth rate, 1820 in 2016 is equivale...
by ge1
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2753
Views: 546260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Time to bump this thread, futures were down 2% earlier... 8-)
by ge1
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World stocks officially reach bear market territory
Replies: 25
Views: 3267

Re: World stocks officially reach bear market territory

Chill out people. I think it's a very relevant observation that the global stock market is in a bear market and the way things are going the US market will join that club soon enough.
by ge1
Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a 200k+/year job?
Replies: 107
Views: 10085

Re: How to get a 200k+/year job?

Many good thoughts in this thread. I would add one point that stuck with my from a conversation with a very successful business man: It is so much easier to get ahead (both career wise and financially), when you are in an industry which generally enjoys a tailwind rather than a headwind. Having grad...
by ge1
Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What growth rate would you use?
Replies: 75
Views: 3595

Re: What growth rate would you use?

Remember, you need to use prudent pessimism in planning. It would be very dangerous to plan on getting the historic average return for stocks. I disagree. I have 26 years until I'll need retirement, and figure that the average performance for the next 26 years will probably be similar as the averag...
by ge1
Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a 200k+/year job?
Replies: 107
Views: 10085

Re: How to get a 200k+/year job?

There are lots of ways to be successful and happy (not suggesting one causes the other). Focussing on salary alone may not be the best way to actually earn a good salary. I think it is better to focus on what you enjoy and consequently are good at. In my case, I became a CPA, got a part time MBA, a...
by ge1
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEMAX up 0.44% / VWO up 2.67% ??
Replies: 7
Views: 905

Re: VEMAX up 0.44% / VWO up 2.67% ??

There was a thread a couple of weeks ago in which I discussed my observations on the frequent flipping between discounts and premiums on VWO/VEMAX. (I believe the title dealt with foreign ETF best trading practices.) Yesterday, VWO closed at a large discount to NAV after international markets were ...
by ge1
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEMAX up 0.44% / VWO up 2.67% ??
Replies: 7
Views: 905

VEMAX up 0.44% / VWO up 2.67% ??

Not a big deal, but I bought some Vanguard Emerging Market Admiral Shares today (VEMAX) and given the 2.67% jump in the equivalent ETF (VWO) I was surprised to see that VEMAX only increased 0.44%. I know there can be differences, but I don't think I have ever seen one that big? Works out for me as I...
by ge1
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Clueless college new grad 22 yo, 200k income looking to start saving
Replies: 143
Views: 11298

Re: Clueless college new grad 22 yo, 200k income looking to start saving

People seem to get all excited about your high starting salary and the personal situation - but reading your OP a few times now I'm not clear what your actual question is? Seems to me you know exactly where your savings in the next 4 years are going: wedding ring and house down payment. Given that s...
by ge1
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question personal loan
Replies: 8
Views: 392

Re: Tax question personal loan

Unless you put out additional capital, the increase in capital would be interest paid. Make sure the rate charged is at least the IRS minimum to avoid imputed interest. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rr-16-04.pdf I don't see what in your link what addresses this point, aside from just giving the ...
by ge1
Sun Jan 31, 2016 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question personal loan
Replies: 8
Views: 392

Re: Tax question personal loan

Thanks all for the feedback. Yes the rate is above the minimum IRS rates. Makes sense to me that the amount of interest earned rolled into the new loan would have to be declared as interest income. Related to this a slightly different question: Can anybody think of a tax efficient way of making thes...
by ge1
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax question personal loan
Replies: 8
Views: 392

Tax question personal loan

I made several loans to a colleague for real estate related investments. He didn't actually pay me the interest, but when we rolled one loan into another, we increased the principal by the earned interest income. I assume I still have to declare the interest income as taxable income in 2015?
by ge1
Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WSJ: HSAs Offer Tax Benefits Beyond 401(k)s
Replies: 26
Views: 4251

Re: WSJ: HSAs Offer Tax Benefits Beyond 401(k)s

Madbrain, agree in your case it looks like the HSA is not the way to go. What would the math look like if you assumed you don't need the HSA money to pay for your medical expenses every year, I.e. have more money for investing? For us the HSA is a complete no brainer. We are in the highest tax brack...
by ge1
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is holding in cash? [For future investing]
Replies: 66
Views: 4336

Re: Who else is holding in cash?

I underweight US stocks due to valuation concerns a bit myself - but 56% is way too extreme! Just a few things to consider: - Do you realize that the market is trading at 20 times trailing earnings - that is only maybe 10% over the 60 year average (I would have to check the exact number) - S&P 5...
by ge1
Fri Jan 29, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 29
Views: 2399

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

I wish I had that problem, my company stock goes down all the time :-) On a serious note, I never regret taking a gain, even if it could be bigger. Yes I probably "lost" 100k by selling Starbucks too early, but I also sold Citi in the 20s before it went to $1, sold IBM in the 180s or Cater...
by ge1
Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2254

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]

Just wanted to mention that VGELX is up around 9% since I bought on the 19th based on the increase in the ETF today :D , maybe January 20 really was the bottom. Time will tell...
by ge1
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Bought a bit more at the close today. Now approx 7% below target for stocks.
by ge1
Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bought a bunch of stocks today
Replies: 46
Views: 5200

Re: Bought a bunch of stocks today

Given you are 100% in equities, where did the 50k come from?
by ge1
Sun Jan 24, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Your Bond Allocation & Location
Replies: 38
Views: 3850

Re: What is Your Bond Allocation & Location

Total Bond Market, Corporate Intermediate and TIPS fund in my 401k.

Muni bond funds in my taxable.
by ge1
Fri Jan 22, 2016 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2254

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX?

Interesting point Valuethinker.

And Oil may well go down to $10, but what are the chances that 5 years or 10 years from now, oil won't be considerably higher and with that share prices of energy companies? I think those chances are very high.
by ge1
Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil Slump ---- VGENX/FSENX? [Vanguard / Fidelity Energy Fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 2254

Re: OIL SLUMP ---- VGENX/FSENX?

I bought VGENX 2 days ago. It's only 2.5% of my portfolio but not immaterial in $ terms. I read William Bernsteins Rational Expectations again (one of my favorites), where he recommends (or at least is not opposed to) having a small allocation to precious metals and energy companies. Also anecdotall...
by ge1
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I can sleep at night but it is on my mind a lot
Replies: 60
Views: 3407

Re: I can sleep at night but it is on my mind a lot

Reading your posts it seems clear to me that you can't handle a 70% allocation to stocks. Given that you only need 48k from your 3m portfolio, there is no need to take that risk. How would you feel if the market decreased 30%, which is entirely possible and you are down 500k? You won the game, chang...
by ge1
Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2753
Views: 546260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Crushtheturtle wrote:....

Must. Get. Money. Into. Market. Faster.


We have been spoiled for a long time in the sense that any market drops were almost immediately follows by sharp upswings (recovery from the 2009 low being the prime example). This one may test our patience a bit more.
by ge1
Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

dbr, Toons

In my initial post I made it clear that I don't claim this to be a superior strategy. Everybody has to do though what they feel comfortable with and for myself that meant to underweigh my allocation to US stocks due to valuation concerns.
by ge1
Wed Jan 20, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

The way the markets are going that cash will be invested sooner that I thought :-)
by ge1
Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does net worth and age determine % bond allocation?
Replies: 53
Views: 5362

Re: Does net worth and age determine % bond allocation?

I think about this quite a bit as well. I'm 45 and about 50/50 stocks/bonds as my need to take risk is much lower than someone with half my nest egg. At the same time, this creates a conundrum: once you have enough where you don't have the NEED to take risk, it gives you greater ABILITY to take ris...
by ge1
Fri Jan 15, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2753
Views: 546260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Down about $90,000 this month so far. Dumped $3K yesterday into my wife's IRA because money I budgeted for something else became available. Would have put more into her IRA today but my pay check deposit was a tad late so Schwab won't let me buy. I hate it when there is a sale going on and I don't ...
by ge1
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12450

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Not sure if it is the bottom (and I don't really care), but valuations are getting very attractive, to the point you may be kicking yourself in a few years looking back at this if you don't buy. The performance over the last 10 years has been so horrendous it is actually hard to believe. Vanguard ET...
by ge1
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Make sure to invest only cash in the market that you don't need for years. Even when things are on sale, they can become much cheaper.

Good luck for DH job search!
by ge1
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Futures are down quite a bit, may turn out to be a decent day to invest some of that cash today :D
by ge1
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: staying calm in the face of a storm
Replies: 31
Views: 4795

Re: staying calm in the face of a storm

As always good article Larry. I am a bit surprised that people are already getting nervous, after all the US market as measured by the S&P is still higher than any point in history before mid 2014 . Not exactly a storm yet. How will people react if we drop to 1600, 1400 or even lower on the S&am...
by ge1
Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your networth progression
Replies: 306
Views: 66224

Re: Share your networth progression

Just a few milestones which come to mind:

Up until 30: maybe 50k

Sep 2008: Now married, both well earning jobs, made two excellent real estate investments: 1.2m

March 2009: less than 700k, ouch!

YE 2013: 2m

Now: 2.5m

Not including equity in primary residence in this.
by ge1
Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?
Replies: 14
Views: 2369

Re: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?

The short answer is yes. P/E ratio based on one year trailing reported earnings is around 20, whilst the long term average is around 15. Shiller P/E using inflation adjusted 10 year trailing earnings is similarly overvalued. So maybe 20-30% overvalued. Keeping in mind that the Shiller ratio has bee...
by ge1
Thu Jan 14, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?
Replies: 14
Views: 2369

Re: US stocks are in correction...but aren't they still expensive?

The short answer is yes.

P/E ratio based on one year trailing reported earnings is around 20, whilst the long term average is around 15. Shiller P/E using inflation adjusted 10 year trailing earnings is similarly overvalued.

So maybe 20-30% overvalued.
by ge1
Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12958

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

Do you become depressed if prices are cheaper when you go to do your grocery shop and buy less, rejoice when prices are higher and buy more. Apparently that's a common pattern for stock shoppers. I might if I had hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of groceries in storage that I was waiting to s...
by ge1
Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12958

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

I reached my GMI point.

I'm underweight US equities, bought some today.
by ge1
Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Re: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Our aim 'A Well Balanced Porfolio' with exposure to the four main income producing asset classes of stocks, bonds, real estate and cash. The real estate can be overlooked, but cash IMHO is important as insurance, esp in times such as these when stocks and bonds both seem bearish. :( How much cash i...
by ge1
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash-on-the-sidelines thread
Replies: 39
Views: 4534

Cash-on-the-sidelines thread

Due to valuation concerns I am underweight US stocks and decided to buy a fixed amount every month until I reach my target AA. Should take me approx 24-36 months. Should markets decrease I buy additional stocks, which means I would reach my target AA earlier. I don't claim that this will outperform ...
by ge1
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2753
Views: 546260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Sad & Painful
by ge1
Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2753
Views: 546260

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

[quote="tj218" Like I said, I overreacted, went very heavy on bonds. Maybe that's mistake #2 (#1 would be deviating). If so I am prepared to deal with those consequences. I'm not afraid of a slight downturn, I am afraid of a deep, rapid downturn. If in 30 days, when my fears of a systemic ...
by ge1
Sun Jan 03, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 hedge fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 4257

Re: 2016 hedge fund contest

Greenwich Money Tree

Long: CVX, TWTR, XOM
Short: AMZN, NFLX, TSLA
by ge1
Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 25036

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

Would certainly stop working at 5m - or only do something I truly enjoy. If I started to hate my job, 3.5 - 4m would be the lower threshold.
by ge1
Sat Jan 02, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings % Target 2016?
Replies: 168
Views: 8794

Re: Savings % Target 2016?

Very impressed by these numbers.

Should be around 25%. Excluding employer match.
by ge1
Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much have you made through long-term investments so far?
Replies: 24
Views: 1780

Re: How much have you made through long-term investments so far?

500k, investing since 2003. Including short term trading as well from my early foolish years :wink:

I track my total gains in all my accounts when I periodically update my asset allocation spreadsheet, always find it useful information.

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