Search found 814 matches
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 11:33 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: does asset allocation shift when total portfolio is high?
- Replies: 16
- Views: 2021
Re: does asset allocation shift when total portfolio is high?
As others said, totally up to personal preference. I significantly de-risked our portfolio once I realized we will achieve our retirements goals with a low allocation to equities. With corporate bonds paying 6% or more I simply don’t need equities. Right now we have a probably 75% of our portfolio in cash & bonds. I also think - and I know most on this forum disagree with this approach - that stocks are overvalued and I’m not sure I would even earn 6% a year over the next 10 years investing at these levels - so combining “low need to take risk” and “I think stock market is overvalued” leads to our low allocation to stocks. The important question is “What if I’m wrong?”. If I’m wrong and equities have another decade of 10%+ annual return...
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 11:21 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
- Replies: 5249
- Views: 900112
Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Up 1.1% / 55k. I take it. Very conservative portfolio, low need to take risk.
- Sat Mar 02, 2024 5:29 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6440
Re: The recent surge: stand pat or "sell high?"
It’s a bubble. Reduce equities significantly , shift to bonds as long as rates are high. Recession later this year, go back into equities once market has dropped 30% as typical in a recession. Fed will have to cut rates aggressively which will boost your bonds.
Anything else I can help with?
Anything else I can help with?
- Tue Feb 27, 2024 7:05 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Feel like I won the "game" at 41---Thoughts on Future Asset Allocation
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3934
Re: Feel like I won the "game" at 41---Thoughts on Future Asset Allocation
If you won the game, no need to invest more in equities. We are in a similar position even though not quite at 50x and we have approx 60% in cash and bonds and 40% in equities and alternatives. Especially now, where you can buy investment grade bonds yielding 6%.
- Tue Feb 27, 2024 4:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
- Replies: 93
- Views: 11641
Re: When did your Net Worth surpass your lifetime earnings?
I’m impressed net worth for anyone would exceed lifetime earnings.
- Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: High Salary (>$500,000) careers
- Replies: 244
- Views: 28594
Re: High Salary (>$500,000) careers
CFO mid-size company. $700k.
I was doing general FP&A stuff in a mega corp years ago when I noticed that the accountants were a) paid very well and b) not very smart and certainly not very client friendly. Decided to do my CPA (went to school overseas but had enough credits). Fast forward a few years and was approached for a CAO job with a small public company. Required relocation and change in industry but doubled my comp.
Now CFO of a private company.
Getting that CPA was the best thing I ever did.
I was doing general FP&A stuff in a mega corp years ago when I noticed that the accountants were a) paid very well and b) not very smart and certainly not very client friendly. Decided to do my CPA (went to school overseas but had enough credits). Fast forward a few years and was approached for a CAO job with a small public company. Required relocation and change in industry but doubled my comp.
Now CFO of a private company.
Getting that CPA was the best thing I ever did.
- Wed Feb 21, 2024 5:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Meredith Whitney makes a bold prediction regarding the housing market
- Replies: 19
- Views: 3910
Re: Meredith Whitney makes a bold prediction regarding the housing market
Priceless.nisiprius wrote: ↑Tue Feb 20, 2024 6:31 am For any who don't remember (lines are performance of a short- and a long-term municipal bond fund):
As always, if you weren't paying attention at the time, it is hard to believe just how seriously her words were taken. More than one forum member reported that they had taken action in their portfolio based on this prediction.
indicating both a number and a time frame, now that was bold.
- Tue Feb 20, 2024 12:40 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1702
Re: Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
I think I found my solution: Rather than trying to filter all my spam into trash, going forward I'll filter emails from known contacts into a separate "new inbox". That way my normal "inbox" becomes my spam folder and I only read stuff I want to read in my "new inbox". A bit like only answering phone calls from people I know.
- Sun Feb 18, 2024 9:17 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1702
Re: Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
Thanks. I had my yahoo email since the beginning of time lol, so sort of a big deal changing it, everyone (clearly!) has it. But will seriously consider changing to a new one.
I‘m still interested to hear if anyone is using a 3rd party service to help with this?
I‘m still interested to hear if anyone is using a 3rd party service to help with this?
- Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:01 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
- Replies: 14
- Views: 1702
Yahoo email - spam emails out of control
The number of spam emails in my yahoo email are out of control. I used up all the automatic filter rules (I think you can set up 300 of them) and blocking senders doesn't do anything. Can anyone recommend a 3rd party service that helps reduce the # of spam emails? I looked briefly at Clean Email but haven't pulled the trigger yet.
- Wed Feb 14, 2024 6:18 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Annualized vs Cumulative Return
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1789
Re: Annualized vs Cumulative Return
On this topic, I only recently realized that Vanguard in the performance section of their ETF and Mutual Fund info displays average annual returns - which as others said is really "garbage" and overstates the actual performance by maybe 1.0% per year (depending on volatility).
I always use CAGR to for my portfolio and to see how benchmarks are doing.
I always use CAGR to for my portfolio and to see how benchmarks are doing.
- Wed Feb 14, 2024 4:46 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I quit or slog through
- Replies: 62
- Views: 7576
Re: Should I quit or slog through
The real question is, why do you feel so uninterested in your job? And what exactly would you do once you stopped your job to make your life more interesting? Until you have that figured out, stay in the current job.
- Sun Feb 11, 2024 12:46 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: What is your HSA strategy?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 6641
Re: What is your HSA strategy?
We had a HSA for maybe 5 years. I keep track of out medical expenses, but given the massive tax advantages I don’t tap into the HSA now. Up to 85k balance now, cumulative medical spend is probably around 60k.( Don’t really understand all the comments about how hard it is to keep receipts lol)
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 12:56 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How did you decide your comfortable annual expense?
- Replies: 40
- Views: 3604
Re: How did you decide your comfortable annual expense?
I read your income information in more detail, looks like in 2023 with a gross income of 488k you managed to save 230k (which is great), spend 160k and paid 98k in taxes (seems a bit low, I assume no state taxes). Your net worth is already 2.4m, which is also excellent at your age. On the face of it, Person 2 could easily go to 50%, which would bring the expected gross income still to the same level as 490k and you could equally easily say increase spending by 40k per year - and you would still be saving almost 200k - which is outstanding. A few other considerations though - Person 2 just changed into the much higher earning job - seems a bit odd you both want to now decrease that? Why make the change in the first place? - How safe is Perso...
- Mon Feb 05, 2024 6:10 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How did you decide your comfortable annual expense?
- Replies: 40
- Views: 3604
Re: How did you decide your comfortable annual expense?
In our 30s and 40s, we just made sure we felt comfortable with how much we saved given our incomes. We were lucky to have a high combined income, so we didn‘t have to restrict ourselves in our to save enough (typically 1/3 tax, 1/3 expenses, 1/3 savings).
Now (in our 50s), we are down to 1 income (mine), still earning well, but no longer need to save anything, so expenses +/- equal our income.
Now (in our 50s), we are down to 1 income (mine), still earning well, but no longer need to save anything, so expenses +/- equal our income.
- Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:58 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Analysis paralysis on 529
- Replies: 40
- Views: 3106
Re: Analysis paralysis on 529
OP, Why do you need to save for the college education? At your income level, the answer is no. A) If you save enough, your annual savings is big enough to pay for the college education. B) If you do not save enough, you cannot afford to pay for the college education. So, why do you need to save for the college education? "Using savings/taxable account means paying 15-20% federal and additional state tax. " Why is the statement correct? Your annual saving should be big enough to pay for the college education over 4 to 5 years. Where is the additional taxes? If you do not save enough to pay for the college education annually, why do you think you can afford to pay for the college education? What is your annual savings/investment? W...
- Mon Jan 15, 2024 3:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Analysis paralysis on 529
- Replies: 40
- Views: 3106
Re: Analysis paralysis on 529
What is giving you pause?
At your income level you should absolutely fund the 529s, the ability to have the funds grow free of capital gains tax is very powerful.
I'll give you an example: We put 25k in my daughter's 529 over a few years right after she was born - she is now 14 and that 529 is worth over 70k.
At your income level you should absolutely fund the 529s, the ability to have the funds grow free of capital gains tax is very powerful.
I'll give you an example: We put 25k in my daughter's 529 over a few years right after she was born - she is now 14 and that 529 is worth over 70k.
- Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:28 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Solo 401k as a sole proprietor
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2886
Re: Solo 401k as a sole proprietor
Yes, won’t be an issue for us, but good to know.lakpr wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 6:48 pmAs another poster pointed out, you will not be able to make Roth contributions as an employee with the Fidelity plan [unless something changed since last year]. Just saying ... it may not ever become an issue for you, but a bit of flexibility in the type of employee contributions would be nice.
We have accounts with Vanguard as well, but Fidelity is a lot better.
- Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:33 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Solo 401k as a sole proprietor
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2886
Re: Solo 401k as a sole proprietor
We set up the Solo 401k for my wife with Fidelity a few years ago - super easy, love all the brokerage options.
- Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:20 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How did you find your dream job?
- Replies: 79
- Views: 23719
Re: How did you find your dream job?
I received some excellent advise in my 20s: Rather than follow my “passion”, I should focus on what comes easy to me. That way, there is an excellent chance I become very competent in my field which again means I will likely make good $. Which is pretty much exactly what happened.
- Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: To those of you who slice and dice your bond allocation, what do you like other than BND?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 15947
Re: To those of you who slice and dice your bond allocation, what do you like other than BND?
I hold LQD (investment grade bond fund ETF) in my 401k. Only corporate bonds, so higher yield than BND.
I also hold individual corporate bonds until maturity in my 401k but you have to do your research.
I also hold individual corporate bonds until maturity in my 401k but you have to do your research.
- Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:40 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Thoughts on family budget
- Replies: 77
- Views: 10826
Re: Thoughts on family budget
You won't find a lot of support here spending 20k per month
You are saving 150k per year which is great - do you think it should be more? If so, why?
We have spent consistenly more than 20k per month over many years but at the same time we were saving 200k+ every year as well in our late 30s/40s. We are now (early 50s) at a point where we spend closer to 25k per month and the combined income is lower so we hardly save anything, but given our net worth we no longer need to save and it's a conscious choice (kids have expensive hobbies, typically flying business for travel etc).
The only thing that stuck out to me were the car leases, that makes no sense to me given you can easily buy the cars.
You are saving 150k per year which is great - do you think it should be more? If so, why?
We have spent consistenly more than 20k per month over many years but at the same time we were saving 200k+ every year as well in our late 30s/40s. We are now (early 50s) at a point where we spend closer to 25k per month and the combined income is lower so we hardly save anything, but given our net worth we no longer need to save and it's a conscious choice (kids have expensive hobbies, typically flying business for travel etc).
The only thing that stuck out to me were the car leases, that makes no sense to me given you can easily buy the cars.
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 2:34 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"
- Replies: 137
- Views: 27118
Re: At what net worth did you start not sweating the "small stuff"
If something is wrong I’ll point it out, however in my head I also have a concept how much my time is worth.
To give a specific example: I bought a fridge and dishwasher recently at Lowe’s, total 4K. When checking out the woman at the counter made an error how she applied the various rebates which probably cost me $75 or so. So I could either have her cancel everything and start again - or just let it go. I told her not to worry about it, just not worth the hassle.
The same principle applies when I receive random requests for paid surveys and stuff like that. Unless it pays around $300 per hour, it’s not worth it.
That doesn’t mean though I will let everything go, just how much time I’m willing to invest vs $ benefit.
To give a specific example: I bought a fridge and dishwasher recently at Lowe’s, total 4K. When checking out the woman at the counter made an error how she applied the various rebates which probably cost me $75 or so. So I could either have her cancel everything and start again - or just let it go. I told her not to worry about it, just not worth the hassle.
The same principle applies when I receive random requests for paid surveys and stuff like that. Unless it pays around $300 per hour, it’s not worth it.
That doesn’t mean though I will let everything go, just how much time I’m willing to invest vs $ benefit.
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:44 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Share your net worth progression
- Replies: 4273
- Views: 1072326
Re: Share your net worth progression
ge1 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2019 12:05 pm Started tracking in 2004:
2004: 508k
2005: 675k
2006: 929k
2007: 1.210m
2008: 1.485m
2009: 1.768m
2010: 2.084m
2011: 2.474m
2012: 2.626m
2013: 2.716m
2014: 2.942m
2015: 2.971m
2016: 3.275m
2017: 3.763m
2018: 3.958m
2019: 4.540m
2020: 5.423m
2021: 6.627m (generous severance package)
2022: 6.684m
2023: 7.174m
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 2023 was a retired investor's dream
- Replies: 41
- Views: 6363
Re: 2023 was a retired investor's dream
It’s nice to see a healthy return at year-end - but I would have much preferred for stocks to remain lower and bonds yields higher, allowing me to keep investing a very nice entry points. Hard to get excited to invest in stocks with the S&P near record levels.
- Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:44 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: How much to spend on single vacation?
- Replies: 108
- Views: 24944
Re: How much to spend on single vacation?
We spent more than this for a family of 3 this summer for a 7 day vacation and it never occurred to me to ask for permission here…
- Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:04 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Am I the only investor allocating more towards Bonds in 2024?
- Replies: 149
- Views: 30600
Re: Am I the only investor allocating more towards Bonds in 2024?
Instant classic.carminered2019 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:48 pmI am up little over 850K YTD with no new contribution and my spending is 65K a year.watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:45 pmOkay, but how does that give you 13X returns?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:43 pmI bought Total US market but more like market timing and dumped all total bond to put in Total US market June 2022. I know the word "timing the market" is not popular around here but I have done it couple times in my life or you can call it "over re-balancing"watchnerd wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 5:23 pmWhat did you buy that gave 13x YTD?carminered2019 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 28, 2023 4:13 pm I am up 13X this year so yes, I will sale stocks and put more in FI Jan 2024.
Total US market hasn't increased 1300% since June 2022.
- Thu Dec 28, 2023 6:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Am I the only investor allocating more towards Bonds in 2024?
- Replies: 149
- Views: 30600
Re: Am I the only investor allocating more towards Bonds in 2024?
Probably not. I did however increase my allocation to bonds very significantly in 2023.
- Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:39 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Winning the game and Dry Powder
- Replies: 157
- Views: 25982
Re: Winning the game and Dry Powder
Yes.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Sat Dec 16, 2023 9:05 am Once you have "Won the game" does the concept of keeping some "Dry Powder" for opportunistic investing become relevant?
We won the game and have a low need to take risk. I keep a lot of cash on hand and invest when opportunities present themselves (e.g., spring 2020 for equities or this summer for bonds). I couldn’t care less if I’m only making 5% when the market earns 15%. It does enable me however to sidestep steep declines like 2022 when our portfolio was up over 3% and a 60/40 portfolio was down double digits.
- Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:16 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 50 year old.just got laid off-Need advise Bogleheads!
- Replies: 94
- Views: 13375
Re: 50 year old.just got laid off-Need advise Bogleheads!
First of all, sorry to hear that, being laid off sucks, no matter how much your net worth is. As others pointed out, in your shoes I would get rid off that rental asap, that makes no sense financially at all. Unless the rental is a place you wanted to move the family to - but I‘ll make a wild guess and think the family wouldn‘t be thrilled to move from the 3.7m mansion into the rental :D I don‘t think anyone has asked this yet, but what is your wife‘s view on all of this? Would she be ok with you not working for a prolonged period of time or early retire? Would she be ok downsizing from the primary house? How much longer does she want to work? You got some time, but think very seriously about your housing situation. For my own liking, a 3.7...
- Tue Dec 12, 2023 4:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Job negotiation final stages (multiple offers)
- Replies: 18
- Views: 3262
Re: Job negotiation final stages (multiple offers)
I'm always specific with numbers when talking to recruiters, otherwise I find it's a waste of everyone's time. It varies by case but typically I tell them
- This is +/- where I am right now
- I would need at least X to even consider the offer
And then see what happens. If an offer comes in below X, case closed. If an offer comes in right around X and I have competing offers, it's more a question which job I think would be a better fit in the long run. The key is to be honest with yourself and not "playing games", i.e. don't communicate a minimum number you need however you'd be happy to settle for 10% less etc.
- This is +/- where I am right now
- I would need at least X to even consider the offer
And then see what happens. If an offer comes in below X, case closed. If an offer comes in right around X and I have competing offers, it's more a question which job I think would be a better fit in the long run. The key is to be honest with yourself and not "playing games", i.e. don't communicate a minimum number you need however you'd be happy to settle for 10% less etc.
- Mon Dec 11, 2023 7:22 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?
- Replies: 112
- Views: 21805
Re: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?
I am in a similar situation age and money wise it seems. Our net worth is 7m with investable assets of 5m, no debt. Early 50s, plan to work at least another 5 years. I'm doing the exact opposite :D Given we "won" the game I don't see the need to "maximize" return, my goal is to achieve a "decent" return while not exposing myself to unnecessary market riks. The increase in interest rates over the last 18 months with the associated higher expected returns from bonds made me dramatically increase my allocation to bonds. We now have 3m in bonds & cash investments. My ability to take risk is high (went through the 2008 crisis with no issues) - I just don't see the need for it. But as many have said: Very much de...
- Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
When comparing to the Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), I don‘t like the fact that BXMT has a 25% exposure to Offices (Fundrise has 0%). Also the vintage of the loans is different, Fundrise created this fund this year to take advantage of this specific market opportunity. CRE loans made 2 or 3 years ago are a LOT less save than the ones made now. You also mentioned some of the big Multifamily players like Equity Residential (EQR) and I agreed in an earlier post that if one wanted exposure to real estate (and not private lending) then the public REITs are probably a better opportunity than private REITs due to the markdowns already taken. Since you say you work in RE, and given your comment on public v. private REITs, I'm curious, which one...
- Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:20 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How much are you down\up from the top set in 2021?
- Replies: 79
- Views: 11946
Re: How much are you down\up from the top set in 2021?
Up 450-500k or so. This is all gains, no net contributions in the last 2 years.
- Wed Dec 06, 2023 4:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
- Replies: 132
- Views: 15263
Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
Love that quote.garlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Wed Dec 06, 2023 2:54 pm1+watchnerd wrote:
It was a triumph of dogma over common sense.
Such triumphs are quite common.
Garland Whizzer
Every now and then common sense just tells you certain things:
- Probably not a bad time to invest in the S&P in March of 2009 when the S&P was in the 600s
- Buying a bond fund with a duration of 6-7 years when the YTM was 2% or whatever it was is - probably not a good idea
- Buying investment grade rated bonds back in October this year yielding over 8% - probably a good thing
- Buying a Bored Ape NFT for 3.4m - most definitely dumb
- Tue Dec 05, 2023 4:05 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: lock in 5.35% for 3 years on fixed equity ?
- Replies: 26
- Views: 3692
Re: lock in 5.35% for 3 years on fixed equity ?
Not a bad option.
I’m investing in an investment grade bond ETF LQD in my retirement account, YTM is 5.5% and duration is 8 years. Should rates continue to decline the performance will be better but the opposite is obviously true as well.
I’m investing in an investment grade bond ETF LQD in my retirement account, YTM is 5.5% and duration is 8 years. Should rates continue to decline the performance will be better but the opposite is obviously true as well.
- Sun Dec 03, 2023 1:08 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Would love input on our finances
- Replies: 42
- Views: 4851
Re: Would love input on our finances
The challenge is that you only have $240k in taxable accounts (including HSA, excluding 529) and you won’t be able to withdraw from the retirement accounts without penalty until age 59 1/2.
When would he start receiving his pension? But even if he is eligible to receive his pension once he retired, you need to fill a hole of approx 75k per year for several years and you only have $240k and your potential income against that. Downsizing would obviously help.
On the face of it, doesn’t sound like a good decision. Any year he can stick it out longer while your teenager is in High School would be hugely helpful.
When would he start receiving his pension? But even if he is eligible to receive his pension once he retired, you need to fill a hole of approx 75k per year for several years and you only have $240k and your potential income against that. Downsizing would obviously help.
On the face of it, doesn’t sound like a good decision. Any year he can stick it out longer while your teenager is in High School would be hugely helpful.
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Has your portfolio recovered since Q1 2022?
- Replies: 104
- Views: 13277
Re: Has your portfolio recovered since Q1 2022?
It sounds nuts but we were 75% in cash at the end of 2021 as I thought bonds were ridiculously overvalued and stocks were very expensive as well. The rest was in alternatives (15%) and only 10% in bonds and stocks.
Don’t recommend this approach to anyone but it works for me.
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Has surviving stock market crash made you more resilient
- Replies: 121
- Views: 13478
Re: Has surviving stock market crash made you more resilient
We had no significant savings in 2000, so the GFC was the big one. It didn’t make me more resilient - but it confirmed a few things for me, i.e.
- I didn’t panic even though our “diversified” portfolio was down a cool -40% or so at some point
- When the sh*t hits the fan, diversification goes out of the window and everything other than US Treasuries crashes
- If your need to take risk is low, there is no need to be 60%, 70% or 80% in equities. We have since increased our allocation to cash and bonds significantly.
- I didn’t panic even though our “diversified” portfolio was down a cool -40% or so at some point
- When the sh*t hits the fan, diversification goes out of the window and everything other than US Treasuries crashes
- If your need to take risk is low, there is no need to be 60%, 70% or 80% in equities. We have since increased our allocation to cash and bonds significantly.
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I'm seeing wild SEC yield vs YTM discrepancies in bond funds
- Replies: 21
- Views: 2612
Re: I'm seeing wild SEC yield vs YTM discrepancies in bond funds
Yes, you’re right, thanks.jeffyscott wrote: ↑Sat Dec 02, 2023 4:32 pm ^ Price is up about 4.23% between the two dates, duration is about 6 years, so the estimated change in yield would be about 0.7%. That would make the current YTM about 4.9%.
There's no significant discrepancy, the YTM is from 10/31.
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:53 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Has your portfolio recovered since Q1 2022?
- Replies: 104
- Views: 13277
Re: Has your portfolio recovered since Q1 2022?
Yes, all time high in portfolio and all time high in cumulative gains. November was awesome
Portfolio was up 3.7% in 2022 and is up 7.7% 2023 YTD (performance, not including contributions).
Portfolio was up 3.7% in 2022 and is up 7.7% 2023 YTD (performance, not including contributions).
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:29 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
- Replies: 5249
- Views: 900112
Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
We are up 7.7% or 363k and I am very happy with that. I couldn’t care less what other people’s performance is, I only care about our own financial goals.
I trade a lot, but on average we probably had 30% in equities, 20% in cash, 40% in bonds and the rest in alternatives.
I do care how our performance compares to my benchmark portfolio of 30% US Stocks / 20 % Intl Stocks / 40 % bonds and 10% Cash, it’s helpful to measure the actual performance vs how one should performed based on the benchmark. We significantly outperformed the benchmark over the last 10 years, so I’m happy about that.
I trade a lot, but on average we probably had 30% in equities, 20% in cash, 40% in bonds and the rest in alternatives.
I do care how our performance compares to my benchmark portfolio of 30% US Stocks / 20 % Intl Stocks / 40 % bonds and 10% Cash, it’s helpful to measure the actual performance vs how one should performed based on the benchmark. We significantly outperformed the benchmark over the last 10 years, so I’m happy about that.
- Sat Dec 02, 2023 4:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I'm seeing wild SEC yield vs YTM discrepancies in bond funds
- Replies: 21
- Views: 2612
Re: I'm seeing wild SEC yield vs YTM discrepancies in bond funds
You’re right, something is wrong with the YTM for BND, it’s most definitely not 5.6%. From memory it was around 4.9% a few weeks ago before the recent run up in price.
- Tue Nov 28, 2023 4:23 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Can I afford this $2M house in bay area?
- Replies: 67
- Views: 8638
Re: Can I afford this $2M house in bay area?
If I were in your shoes, the main question is how much I'd still be saving (if anything) with the new house. Doing the numbers high level, with a 520k income and assuming 10% CA tax, your after tax income should be somewhere around 290-300k? Using 7% for your 1.5m mortgage, your interest expense is 105k, so you are left with 190k annually / 15-16k per month. How much are you spending excluding the mortgage? And how much do you want to save per year? Make sure to include appropriate maintenance on the bigger house now as well. We were always high spenders - but we always made sure that even with high spending we were still saving a lot as well. As long as that's the case, you're fine. Just don't count on house appreciation to make up for any...
- Tue Nov 07, 2023 4:23 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is the role of fixed income to you?
- Replies: 118
- Views: 15989
Re: What is the role of fixed income to you?
At current rates and for the foreseeable future, it is the primary mechanism how I'll achieve my target return. Equity returns are just gravy on top.
- Mon Nov 06, 2023 4:06 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
When comparing to the Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), I don‘t like the fact that BXMT has a 25% exposure to Offices (Fundrise has 0%). Also the vintage of the loans is different, Fundrise created this fund this year to take advantage of this specific market opportunity. CRE loans made 2 or 3 years ago are a LOT less save than the ones made now.
You also mentioned some of the big Multifamily players like Equity Residential (EQR) and I agreed in an earlier post that if one wanted exposure to real estate (and not private lending) then the public REITs are probably a better opportunity than private REITs due to the markdowns already taken.
You also mentioned some of the big Multifamily players like Equity Residential (EQR) and I agreed in an earlier post that if one wanted exposure to real estate (and not private lending) then the public REITs are probably a better opportunity than private REITs due to the markdowns already taken.
- Sun Nov 05, 2023 6:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
Looks like it is 50% senior debt, 25% pref equity and the rest between asset back securities and direct investments in Mortgage REITs.
I didn‘t look into the other investments you mentioned, I‘m sure there are other good options out there. From what I have seen on the Real Estate side, Fundrise charges low management fees so I suspect their fees are lower compared to other managers but I did not verify that.
I didn‘t look into the other investments you mentioned, I‘m sure there are other good options out there. From what I have seen on the Real Estate side, Fundrise charges low management fees so I suspect their fees are lower compared to other managers but I did not verify that.
- Sun Nov 05, 2023 4:18 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
As stated before, I think Fundrise is an excellent platform. I have however shifted my Fundrise investments from Real Estate to debt and primarily to the Credit Opportunity Fund. The return expectations over the coming 2-3 years are simply not attractive for real estate investments in my opinion and some of the public REITs offer more attractive entry points as others have pointed out. My annualized return has been 8.4% since starting investing with them in early 2021. Hi ge1 - The Fundrise Credit Opportunity Fund has a required $100,000 minimum. Does it concern you or keep you up at night to have this amount of funds in an illiquid account with Fundrise? Best. Tony Hi Tony No it doesn’t. I have 250k total in the Opportunity Fund, but with...
- Sat Nov 04, 2023 6:48 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
As stated before, I think Fundrise is an excellent platform. I have however shifted my Fundrise investments from Real Estate to debt and primarily to the Credit Opportunity Fund. The return expectations over the coming 2-3 years are simply not attractive for real estate investments in my opinion and some of the public REITs offer more attractive entry points as others have pointed out.
My annualized return has been 8.4% since starting investing with them in early 2021.
My annualized return has been 8.4% since starting investing with them in early 2021.
- Sun Oct 29, 2023 6:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fundrise - Real Estate
- Replies: 161
- Views: 26297
Re: Fundrise - Real Estate
I have been a Fundrise investor for maybe 3 years and I’m very happy. They charge a small management fee for their funds compared to similar structure and their CEO, Ben Miller, is very transparent in his communication. I love the fact that you can exit the Flagship fund quarterly with no penalties. When the performance was off the charts in 2021 they said very clearly that this was highly unusual and should not be expected going forward, I really appreciated that. Fwiw, I think their Credit Opportunity Fund is one of the very best solutions to get exposure to private credit. Is the Credit Opportunity Fund the Income Fund or a different investment? Are you in Fundrise Pro? Best. Tony It’s different. Just go to the Fundrise page and you’ll ...