Search found 1261 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification
Replies: 6
Views: 421

Diversification

Although the point is not a new one, this is an Interesting article at least to me. Comments?

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/Your-portfolio-may-be-less-diversified-than-you-think

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 23, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long‑Maturity TIPS in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 3
Views: 381

Re: Long‑Maturity TIPS in Retirement Portfolios

Long maturity TIPS do eliminate inflation risk but in a rising interest rate environment where bond yields may be increasing faster than inflation their principal value declines in proportion to their duration just like nominal bonds do. If you can live off the real yields generated by TIPS and thus...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about bond fund duration and current SEC yield
Replies: 2
Views: 230

Re: Question about bond fund duration and current SEC yield

Kelly wrote: Where am I wrong in these three scenarios (assumes held in an IRA and interest is reinvested): 1- If rates remain unchanged the annualized return over the 7.8 year duration will be 0.4%. 2- If rates rise, there will be a NAV decline but will be reinvesting at a higher rate and will bre...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth, Value or Both?
Replies: 19
Views: 1262

Re: Growth, Value or Both?

nedsaid wrote: My portfolio pizza is already has a lot of slices and I don't think I want to keep adding more. But I suppose I will give International Small Value some thought. Do you have a fund or ETF that you recommend? I think the best SV INTL funds are run by DFA, but it is against my religion...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth, Value or Both?
Replies: 19
Views: 1262

Re: Growth, Value or Both?

nedsaid wrote: I do small/value tilt myself. The key word is tilt. I still have growth investments. Nedsaid, even though I argue for TSM, like you, I tilt to SCV but not with the lions's share of the portfolio in US equities. My tilt to SCV is larger in INTL than in US. Part of the reason for my ti...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth, Value or Both?
Replies: 19
Views: 1262

Re: Growth, Value or Both?

At least part of the difference in growth versus value performance between Taylor's example and this website [url]Comparing the results of value and growth stock market indexes[/url] is that they are comparing different things. The website gives results for cost free indexes: no trading costs, no ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks
Replies: 37
Views: 3956

Re: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks

dh wrote: Indeed! There is no right or wrong answer, just many approaches (I cannot think of the exact wording of Taylor's famous "many roads to Dublin" quote). Compare John Bogel's portfolio to Charles Ellis who recently stated it is ok to have US stock index fund, international stock in...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 17, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends
Replies: 120
Views: 4955

Re: Better growth? Or on how the value premium ends

Very interesting post, backpacker, thanks for posting. Poses a good question: will increased efficiency of markets due to dominance by professionals doom the pursuit of alpha?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who trades on momentum, and thus who's on the other side
Replies: 22
Views: 1494

Re: Who trades on momentum, and thus who's on the other side

Timing is critical in momentum strategies. Things that outperform in the very short term tend to keep outperforming up to a point in time at which they start underperforming. Timing is critical because if these stocks are held too long they eventually depart so far from underlying economic fundament...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting take on where interest rates are headed
Replies: 9
Views: 1692

Re: Interesting take on where interest rates are headed

garlandwhizzer wrote: labor market reforms which are sorely needed in Europe and Japan but are politically unpopular there. boglerdude wrote in response to my post: Reforms like? For Japan I suggest reading http://voxeu.org/article/fixing-japan-s-labour-market For Europe https://www.weforum.org/age...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting take on where interest rates are headed
Replies: 9
Views: 1692

Re: Interesting take on where interest rates are headed

The evidence thus far does not show that negative interest rate policy stimulates the economy at all. Our problem in DM is not that interest rates are too high, but rather that few credit worthy people or corporations want to borrow in order to spend that money stimulating the economy. Monetary poli...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 6778

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

#Cruncher's post is fascinating and thorough, giving us much to think about. What the internal rate of return doesn't tell us however has to do with term risk. The longer the term, the higher the risk of two things impacting real investor returns: inflation and company viability. If your benefits ar...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion
Replies: 108
Views: 6778

Re: The annuity puzzle, and a suggestion

longinvest wrote: I really like Taylor Larimore's position on SPIAs: viewtopic.php?p=2791408#p2791408 Taylor Larimore wrote: In my opinion (I once sold annuities), it is better to wait until the late 70s, or longer, for these reasons: * The premium is less or the lifetime income is larger. * You mi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 12625

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

I think it's overstating the case to say that there is never any place for any type of corporate bonds in a portfolio. Treasuries look compelling on backtesting during the greatest bond market in history. But will that continue going forward from here, yielding 1.5% for ten years? They provide safet...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 11, 2016 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the low volatility post
Replies: 9
Views: 775

Re: Part 2 of the low volatility post

Larry wrote regarding low volatility: I have no idea if they are overpriced. What I do know is that high prices project lower future returns. I totally agree. I have stood on the sidelines for years watching high div and REITS get more and more overvalued, going higher and higher. I never got on th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the low volatility post
Replies: 9
Views: 775

Re: Part 2 of the low volatility post

Good article, thanks for posting, Larry. One question: Low Vol and High Div may well be too popular, overpriced at present along with a few other market segments. The question is: is this a cyclical trend which will in the near future be reversed? Or is it a secular change in a world where economic ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 80
Views: 6601

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

I don't blindly follow what anyone advises, even Bogle and Buffett, my two favorite heroes in the investing world. Whenever there are many differing expert opinions on a subject like international allocation I try to read all points of view and make my own decision, taking full responsibility for it...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3381

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

The justification for different treatment is that dividends are double taxed, at the corporate level by firms paying them out and at the personal level by those receiving them. Bonds are single taxed, only to those who receive payments. It is also argued that such preferential tax treatment increase...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta
Replies: 8
Views: 1175

Rob Arnott warning signs in smart beta

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-pioneer-of-smart-beta-investing-is-flashing-warning-signs-2016-08-10


Comments?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 17381

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

To throw in my two cents worth: I agree with Larry on this one. I adjusted my financial planning a long time ago over such concerns. Predicting future returns is an imperfect art, not a science, so we're not talking about certainty here, only our best guess given current market inputs. Current valua...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 03, 2016 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 2518

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX? The primary purpose of this fund is to generate profits for AQR. It wouldn't exist if AQR didn't see a high probability of profit from it. If it fails to achieve that primary goal, it will disappear and become a victim of survivor...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low volatility and high valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 859

Re: low volatility and high valuations

Larry wrote: There are also some other fixed income strategies we are looking closely at which look attractive, including investing in direct to consumer loans (arbing the banks) but taking only the higher end of the credit spectrum. If done right you can get dramatically higher yields (say in 8% r...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9132

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

coachz wrote: Super rich aren't going to invest their money and make crappy returns so I want to know where are they putting their bucks for the big money. 60 billion of super rich money went into Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme. Hedge funds which have massively underperformed the S&P 500 for a de...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9132

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

How can markets keep going up? The answer has a lot to do with the following question: How can quality bond yields keep going down? There is an abundance of accumulated wealth in US and DM seeking places to go for safe bonds or relatively safe real gains (US stocks). Historically speaking there is n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 31, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to switch between bonds / stocks to maximize profits
Replies: 23
Views: 1549

Re: How to switch between bonds / stocks to maximize profits

nedsaid wrote: Color me skeptical. 1+ Color me skeptical as well. First of all, I simply cannot believe the numbers. If Auntie has been averaging a compound rate of return of 18%/yr. her money doubles every 4 years. We're asked to believe that she has done this not for 4 years but for 16 years, 4 c...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 343
Views: 45331

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

For those who follow market timing strategies consistently, no one, and I do mean no one, experts included, avoids being served a generous slice of humble pie by the market at some point. Sometimes it works, sometimes it backfires. I believe the data suggests that most who follow these strategies un...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3287

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

nedsaid wrote: As much as I like and admire Larry Swedroe and Dr. Bill Bernstein, there might be something going on with real estate that they are completely missing. True, nedsaid, and here's another idea that is as close to ensuring bullet proof high returns as possible. I'll short REITs, you buy...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 139
Views: 14397

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

jebmke wrote: Only use real rates (~0 for bonds and 4% for equity). Me, too, for US returns. I expect INTL equity and EM equity to have higher returns going forward but still use 4% estimates for them because their returns, while higher on an expected basis, are less predictable and reliable than U...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 29
Views: 3287

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

InvestorNewb wrote: I feel sorry for the people who sold their REITs after that post, even though he did not suggest doing that. It goes to show that nobody can predict the future. I have to admit I was tempted to sell some of my REITs at the time, since Dr. Bernstein is a well respected author and...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 222
Views: 13809

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Good article, Larry, thanks for posting. It is important for investors to realize that US equities are not currently in a bubble. There is no reason to panic and step away from equity now, be it US or INTL. There is certainly more risk and volatility in equity than in bonds just as there always has ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2388

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

Simplegift wrote: IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 1982

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

Simplegift wrote: The original Fama-French paper on the value effect covered the high-inflation decades of the 60s, 70s and 80s (specifically, 1963-1990), and consequently showed a very robust value premium. Since then, inflation and interest rates have been in a long decline (chart below) — just t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8994

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Quark wrote:' As others have mentioned, you're ignoring productivity growth. If productivity growth is high enough, even at 1:1 everyone would be better off than they were at 1:3 with lower productivity. Over time, output per worker increases and that higher output can be used to support more peopl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 1982

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When after 23 years the difference in approaches is less than one quarter of one percent, there are several potential explanations. One to consider is that the result is purely by chance, that the value premium didn't exist in any meaningful way or that if it did, the funds did not capture it. The l...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund performance and fund size
Replies: 9
Views: 808

Re: Mutual fund performance and fund size

No surprises here. Successful funds attract more performance chasing dollars until the assets under management exceeds the available opportunities to create alpha. There is a great deal of group-think in professional money management. Many line up together and tout the same stocks or the same strate...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8994

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

From the Bureau of Labor statistics: Labor productivity measures the amount of goods and services produced by one hour of labor; specifically, labor productivity measures the amount of real gross domestic product (GDP) produced by an hour of labor. Real GDP/total hours of labor. Theres is some contr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8994

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I agree with Bill Bernstein on this one. Thanks, Bill, for your input. There are real challenges ahead in financing retirement particularly in developed economies. One answer for individuals, as many posters have pointed out, is to save and invest more, reducing personal consumption in favor of inve...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2402

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Some good points have been made in this post about why CAPE PE 10 in isolation may not offer an apples to apples comparison between the US and INTL. Still the differences between CAPE for US versus INTL are quite striking not only at present but also, as Simplegift point out, by historical standards...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2402

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Great post, Simplegift, as usual. My understanding is that CAPE PE 10's ability to predict future returns in poor in the short term (1 -3 years) and poor in the very long term (3 decades). I believe its predictive value maximizes at about 10 years where it has an accuracy of about 40% according to a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50103

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: Thanks for a very comprehensive response. Your thinking and mine are pretty similar although I'm a little lighter on international. Right now I'm at 42/54/4 (42 rather than 40 because of recent up market.) I decided recently to move to 45 equity but not until things drop back a bit...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50103

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: I'd be interested in knowing what AA you'd recommend going forward if one wanted to keep it relatively conservative, track inflation and (maybe a bit more) but take no exhorbitant risk on the equity side. Figure a need for 25 years or so with a 3-ish% withdrawal rate. Also figure t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 1309

Re: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle

Thanks, Taylor, for the post. Bogle is my favorite hero in the financial arena which has numerous self-serving participants but few heroes. I always learn from what he has to say. I did not realize what a struggle his long quest has been, how close to complete failure so many times. He is brilliant ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 50103

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

grap0013 wrote: A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double that of 5 year treasuries right now but one should not buy treasuries for the yield. Let the portfolio growth c...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?
Replies: 14
Views: 2048

Re: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?

In my view REITS are overvalued now and have been overvalued for long time. I have refused to buy them for several years for this reason and I've stood on the sidelines and watched as they continued to climb in value, getting more and more overvalued. I don't know when their great run will stop. I s...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1557

Re: Diversification sanity check

Epsilon Delta wrote in response to my post: I disagree with this. It's entirely possible that the EM become more like DM and their market cap approaches their share of the world economy and the current shares are not a bargain. EM market cap could grow by issuing more shares. EM markets becoming mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?
Replies: 29
Views: 3738

Re: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?

Kevin K wrote: Bottom line for me anyway: expenses matter more than ever in this low-return environment and flexibility in SWRs during retirement is vital. 1+ I believe much of Wade Pfau's commentaries have as their chief purpose feathering his own bed, a very common practice in the financial indus...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1557

Re: Diversification sanity check

nisi wrote: Emerging market capitalization is maybe 1/8th to 1/6th of global (numbers vary because authorities do not agree on which countries should be considered "emerging markets." But they will make the point that emerging market economies are a much bigger part of the world economy t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6696

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Karamatsu wrote: What sort of structural labor reforms? Also it's worth noting that very few Japanese individuals buy JGBs. The bonds are mostly held by institutions, all of which are now net sellers. The only net buyers of JGBs these days are the Bank of Japan (obviously) and foreigners. The vast ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs
Replies: 32
Views: 4802

Re: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs

Bonds have historically low yields. That means per unit of yield, they're more expensive than ever in history. Stocks are near all time highs and have elevated PE 1 and PE 10. That means they're expensive too, but less so than bonds by historical measures. Everything is expensive which means the sup...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE
Replies: 5
Views: 440

Re: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE

I don't think you can look at CAPE PE 10 levels in isolation as the only guideline in terms of selling stocks when CAPE values are higher than historical norms and moving into bonds. Larry and others have made the point that changes in accounting practices produce some distortion in today's CAPE val...

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