Search found 1596 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1173

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

The market is not now and has never been totally efficient. Investment decisions made by humans are often irrational, driven more by emotion than reason. The argument is not that the market is perfectly efficient. The argument is that most of us, including most of the outrageously paid active fund m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 71
Views: 12623

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Both Vanguard W funds have long term impressive performance records for the niches in which they operate. I believe they have effectively selected attractive risk/reward tradeoffs with a conservative slant. Presumably their global funds will pursue the same strategies with a diversified global portf...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 50
Views: 5365

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

I think Larry's article makes an excellent point that often gets overlooked: no one can consistently and accurately predict future market action. Period. Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight. The opportunity cost of missing out on further mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 55
Views: 4239

Re: The overselling of international diversification

CULater wrote: In other words, international stock diversification works the wrong way: correlations are low with U.S. stocks when U.S. stocks have good returns, and high when U.S. stocks have poor returns. This is true for backtesting over the period chosen for this paper. US equities have outperf...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 12792

Re: Annuities-when and why?

ResearchMed wrote: I don't think the "high fee structure and very generous sales commissions" are characteristic of SPIAs, As for sales commissions for SPIA, the following is a quote from https://blog.annuity123.com/how-do-annuity-commissions-get-paid-to-the-agent/ The sales commissions as well as ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18187

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

I think the use of alternate funds is a matter of personal taste. Lots of smart guys and adept investors use them. Lots of smart guys and adept investors don't use them. I'm with the latter group. Rational arguments can be made on both sides of this question.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1722

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

Term life insurance only until your asset base is large enough that you no longer need it.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 12792

Re: Annuities-when and why?

Just an opinion of mine, not gospel for others. If you interested in annuities (most IMO do not benefit from them), use only SPIAs and defer purchase as long as possible unless you're losing your marbles. Annuities provide longevity insurance and also insurance against making bad financial judgement...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18187

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

I wrote a post about VRRIX.
zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Did you mean SRRIX, the Stone Ridge reinsurance fund?
Yes, I did mean SRRIX. Thanks for the correction.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 26
Views: 2336

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Doc wrote regarding 30 yr. TIPS:
I would be buying tens or even sevens with the intention of rolling them when they mature to build my 30 year LMP. Taking 30 years of term risk for less than 1% is iffy.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18187

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

It's all a matter of personal taste, but alternate invests other than equity (US and INTL, cap weight and factor) in addition to high quality US high bonds are for me sufficient. I expect my portfolio value to go up and down in the short term but to go up reliably over the long term. I am comfortabl...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 80
Views: 6500

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

VictoriaF wrote: A summary of The Black Swan is short: BS happens. But reading, and rereading, and listening to, and internalizing his vignettes does you a lot of good. You start anticipating Black Swans and choosing your risks. Agreed. The problem however is that you don't know beforehand where th...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IMTM fund?
Replies: 1
Views: 268

Re: Thoughts on IMTM fund?

MOM is a well supported factor on academic research but funds which seek to exploit it usually fail. MTUM is an exception, doing well because relative to other MOM funds, it keeps costs low, trades less, is long only, and operates only in the LC space. If IMTM is run by the same team it may use the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 78
Views: 17833

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Nedsaid, you're an experienced and, in my opinion, savvy investor. If you have trouble beating the S&P 500 over a decade, that says a lot. Earlier in my investing career in the 1980s and 1990s, I was 100% individual stocks, no mutual funds, no index funds, just stock picking. That seemed to work qui...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston
Replies: 35
Views: 6201

Re: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston

Disasters devastate people's lives but, ironically, at the same time they can create investment opportunities for those who have liquid cash and good judgement. The problem during disasters is that few in the devastated areas are sitting on piles of cash. Disasters destroy wealth, flood disasters es...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6815

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I agree with Larry's assessment. If you're looking to juice returns by increasing risk/volatility, I believe INTL exposure including EM is an attractive place to look, more so than concentrating solely on seeking factor premiums in richly priced, more efficient US markets. I also believe that both b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 2895

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The other side of the coin, a confession: for the first decades of my investing career I was 100% in stocks and REITS, no bonds at all until I had been retired for 5 years. I never sold a single share during any market decline. This allowed me to take full advantage of the greatest bull market in US...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 6932

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

FIREchief wrote: Isn't "buying" inflation protection for only a modest portion of your bond portfolio like buying fire insurance only for a modest portion of your house? If TIPS were my only inflation protection that would be true. As nedsaid pointed out my portfolio is equity heavy, (66 stock/34 b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler
Replies: 6
Views: 799

12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler

Interesting insights from recent Nobel Prize winner that question the validity of much of existing economic and investing theory. Comments?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-th ... 2017-10-09

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 6932

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

The case can be made that the optimal time to buy inflation protection is not when inflation is actively increasing or expected to increase substantially in the near future. At such times, nominal bonds suffer substantial principal loss and TIPS become quite expensive. Currently, little if any infla...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?
Replies: 3
Views: 406

Re: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?

I wouldn't do this strategy. First, there is no certainty that SCV will outperform over your personal time frame, regardless of backtesting. Backtesting suggests but does not define a future. There are legitimate reasons to question whether SCV's robust outperformance will continue in the future (ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 2895

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The question is: can you tolerate keeping a 100% stock portfolio for decades? If so, investing only in equities and only for the long run is expected to maximize return. You need to be 100% sure you won't need to tap into the money for decades, no chance of losing your high paying job or, alternatel...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15271

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Bogle, as always, gives an intelligent, rational, and sober analysis. Almost everyone who looks at current US market prices and the current and expected future state of our economy expects considerably less than historical returns. Arnott and GMO agree with Bogle's dour picture. There are however tw...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7356

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

nedsaid wrote: Short term interest rates were kept to essentially zero until the recent short term rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Bank. I liquidated almost all my money market funds in retirement accounts because I was fed up with receiving almost zero interest, I went to bonds with those funds ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7356

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

I have always been a fan of cash, kept a lot of it, and a equity heavy portfolio. It has a bad and IMO unfair reputation among many financial analysts who tend to prepare for the last war instead of the next one. We've just ended a 35 year bull market in bonds which saw ever increasing bond principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some Hand-Holding
Replies: 17
Views: 1208

Re: Some Hand-Holding

I'll chime in with the alternate point of view since everyone seems to think your portfolio is too aggressive. The real question about aggressive, equity heavy portfolios is not the portfolio itself but the person who owns it. Are you given to panic when the bottom drops out? Did you manage to sail ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 04, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 1814

Re: Crisis of Confidence - Choosing Bond allocations in portfolio

I think you've got a good portfolio as it stands and wouldn't agonize over changes.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?
Replies: 15
Views: 2194

Re: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?

Two huge problems . First, default risk. The probability of corporate default increases with time. A lot of today's successful corporations will be out of business in 10 - 20 years. It's not easy picking the ones that will survive. Look how many of the darlings of 20 years ago are either on the rope...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Howard Marks interview
Replies: 1
Views: 351

Re: Howard Marks interview

Very interesting post, lazyday, thanks for posting. It brings up some important considerations. We are in uncharted waters these days in terms of aggressive central bank policies. Never before in history have interest rates been this low for this long, nor have central banks ever been forced to reso...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel essay on Smart Beta
Replies: 11
Views: 1639

Re: Malkiel essay on Smart Beta

Two problems with multi-factor approaches. Increased cost, obviously one. Second, complexity. Which factors to select in which proportions and the specifics of the bands used to define each factor such that trades will be triggered. Should all factors be used or only a few? Should all be equally wei...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3169

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

I think Lauretta makes a good point. Pricing of bonds between US sovereigns and EUR sovereigns doesn't make any sense at current interest rate differentials IMO. Part of this is that the central banks in EUR and the US are in different points of the interest rate cycle: decreasing interest rates in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'
Replies: 50
Views: 2581

Re: Buffett's idea of risk vs risk as in the formula: 'willingness, ability and need'

A 100% stock portfolio, or a 90/10 as Buffett selected for his wife, have higher expected long term returns than portfolios with more bonds. Warren can stick with that heavy tilt to equity through thick and thin because he's a multi-billionaire with a very strong stock market stomach, and he keeps h...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 30, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 2611

Re: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard

I find it interesting that total dollar investment in smart beta efts has increased 500% in the last 10 years, 300% in the last 5 years alone. This does not include smart beta and factor-based mutual funds which also have poured a lot money into these strategies. Cap-weighted beta index funds invest...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of a crash and lump sum investing
Replies: 32
Views: 2674

Re: Likelihood of a crash and lump sum investing

Lump sum gets a bad wrap on this forum. There are academic studies that conclude lump sum is the way to go. The problem with the academic studies is that they're not looking at the current specific market characteristics (valuations, expectations about future corporate profile growth, interest rates...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 29, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success
Replies: 2
Views: 598

Founder of world's largest hedge fund manager shares his ideas about success

Interesting and surprisingly forthright about where we are now and where we might be going. Comments?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-ra ... 2017-09-29

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 1935

Re: Alternate investment strategies

nedsaid wrote: Yet another issue is that markets, particularly in a crisis, will do things you won't expect. Sometimes you just have to be patient and wait for the recovery in stock prices. We always look for the magic answer that will give our portfolios steady 7-8% growth every year with little v...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?
Replies: 65
Views: 6422

Re: Guy proves that Buy The Dip strategy works (via backtests) any rebuttals?

It is a relatively easy exercise in arithmetic to define the specific parameters of a trading strategy that would have optimized investment results over any given backtesting period. Whether or not those same parameters will work in similar fashion going forward is IMO uncertain. One wonders for exa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 31145

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

willthrill81 wrote: The idea that bonds have been in a long bull market is, to the best of my knowledge, false. The long-run performance of bonds (10 years or more) is determined almost entirely by bond yields, which were far better 30 years ago than now. A bond holder would rather be earning 10% t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 1935

Re: Alternate investment strategies

My two cents worth. Like nedsaid, there is enough complexity to suit me in just stocks, bonds, and cash. I think I understand the behavior of these simpler building blocks. I believe bonds are the ultimate diversifier for an equity based portfolio and see no need to dedicate significant amounts of m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 133
Views: 31145

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Wellesley has been a great fund in terms of risk adjusted returns for a very long time. Like all other strategies, however, its returns are period dependent. A 60 bond/40 stock portfolio does quite well in an environment of ever decreasing interest rates which we had for the 34 years of 1982 - 2016,...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternate investment strategies
Replies: 15
Views: 1935

Alternate investment strategies

Below is the website address for an article from the Wall Street Journal that argues that alternate investment strategies may be overhyped and have rather consistently underperformed a simple 60/40 portfolio over the last decade. If you can't access it directly from WSJ, you can find it on http://ob...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation
Replies: 15
Views: 2290

Re: Larry Swedroe: A 5 Factor Evaluation

rkhusky wrote: And the comparison to physics isn't appropriate, not because of the accuracy of the results, but because the universe isn't an active opponent, changing the parameters as we learn more. A more appropriate comparison would be to game theory. It's also worth noting that the Fama French...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4661

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

I think that a 0% US equity holding in a portfolio is way off target. It implies that Arnott Research Affiliates' model (Shiller PE10) foretells the future emphatically. Vanguard's study looked at all factors, including PE10, as predictors of future market action and determined that none have greate...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 2582

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

I tend to agree with Vanguard and others who expect positive but significantly lower than historical rates of expected stock and bond returns in the US going forward. No one knows how the future will actually play out, but it may be a mistake in financial planning to project US historical returns go...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3275

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Great post, Random Walker. It makes a very important point in favor of wide diversification off asset classes in a portfolio.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4755

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

I believe the main purpose is to reduce risk. It provides a formula for making asset allocation changes which, if followed, may reduce emotion-based buy/sell decisions. To be successful however, a high level of self-knowledge, especially risk tolerance, is necessary. Often it takes the real experien...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4985

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

The article by GS is interesting. It predicts a 67% chance of a bear market in the next two years which doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction to me. It gives them plenty of wiggle room. 2 years is a long time frame and even over 2 years they estimate a 33% chance that there will be no bear mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S & P broke major technical/psychological number
Replies: 21
Views: 2814

Re: S & P broke major technical/psychological number

Personally I place no faith in technical analysis or in threshold psychological numbers as predictors of future market action. This news does not change my outlook in any way.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1452

Re: Shiller PE over 30

IMO it is time to rebalance to your asset allocation model which hopefully reflects your true risk tolerance, but not to make substantial portfolio changes based on fear of an imminent market collapse. When something sufficiently disruptive happens, such that mass psychology shifts into reverse, the...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6986

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Doc, if all we're talking about is moving a portion of TBM into Treasuries and that action makes you feel more secure about future market disruptions, it seems rational to do it. Treasuries offer the ultimate safety in a market collapse. Currently their yields aren't far from TBM's, so switching isn...