Search found 1663 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 120 months of expenses in Fixed Income plus 100/0 a viable long term allocation?
Replies: 42
Views: 1454

Re: Is 120 months of expenses in Fixed Income plus 100/0 a viable long term allocation?

Personally, I think 10 times a generous estimate of annual living expenses in fixed income is adequate with the rest 100/0 or 80/20 in equity. This seems to me a rational approach but not the only rational approach. It depends on your emotional makeup. If you get emotionally overwrought when your po...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 85
Views: 2978

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

Very good article, thanks for posting, matjen. It is IMO an objective analysis, not a sales pitch, and it provides good background information that might benefit both factor and cap-weighted index investors. If you're pressed for time, the concluding remarks starting on page 33 in the PDF version gi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2073

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

SimpleGift wrote: The problem is that even the experts whose job it is to predict the market's future earnings-per-share have a terrible track record of forecasting this metric just one year in advance, much less 10 years in the future. Though not totally discounting the rational calculations of fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 3856

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

Tanelorn wrote: No down years for decades and a big profit in 2008 and you call that high risk? High return yes, high risk - hardly. We'll have to agree to disagree on that. Perhaps it's just that I'm suspicious by nature. Perhaps it's that I've never seen such consistently fabulous results over su...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2563

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

nisi wrote: For example, if almost everybody wanted 30% of their holdings to be small-cap value, you would have a problem because small-cap value is only 2% of the market. The market will run out of small-cap value long before everyone could get what they want. In fact, not even 7% of investors' do...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it
Replies: 82
Views: 10726

Re: Just not getting it

namrac wrote: Where am I off? Scratching my head. If you can reliably and consistently pick the stocks that are going to be the big winners in the future and avoid those that are destined to be losers, it is very rational to do so. Many of us who have tried that pick-the-winners approach actually u...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 29
Views: 2563

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

There are some things about investing that are worthy of serious concern. That indexing will ruin the market's ability to function is not one of them IMO. Those that promote such a belief usually have a financial interest in doing so. As others have pointed out, as soon as there exploitable market i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 3856

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

BlueEars wrote: I have seen no information on this other than a results mention in Bloomberg. Unconfirmed and unaudited. Possible baloney. 1+ I simply do not believe that over a 20 year span which included 2 of the most severe bear markets in history, 2000-3 and 2007-9, that anyone can legitimately...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value
Replies: 20
Views: 2651

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value

It's been a rough decade for SCV, but I agree with Larry and Random Walker that at some point, impossible to say when, it will shine again. Persistent long term underperformance makes things cheaper and therefore it may actually improve the expectation (but not guarantee) of improved long term retur...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?
Replies: 8
Views: 711

Re: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?

Corporate profit growth has been tepid by historical bull market standards during the current bull market. Most of the market gains have come from PE multiple expansion. There are reasons why PE might rationally expand: secular low interest rates and low inflation, slow but stable economic and corpo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 27
Views: 2536

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Predicting the future of financial markets has often produced more laughs than accuracy when viewed in retrospect, no matter who's doing it. Many experts have been humbled. Having said that, I tend to agree with Vanguard's basic themes about elevated risk, more volatility, and lower returns in 2018 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1171

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

First of all, the returns of the quintiles are nominal not real. The comparison chooses to start in 1980 when inflation was more than 13%. Dividends at that time for the S&P 500 averaged more than 4%, more than 5% in 1981, which looks pretty good on the graph, but in fact those yields were dwarfed a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2540

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

BlueEars wrote: Since I am in the spending phase (retired) some ST bonds make sense to me. I have recently increased the ratio of ST to IT bonds. Wondering what others think about this issue and what ratio the ST to IT to hold. I also am in the retired spending phase and the very same question occu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3091

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Thanks for posting this, Robert T, it makes a critical point. The 2000 - 2009 period demonstrates that significant diversification may be achieved simply by using different slices of equity assets. US LC index had very different returns from EM or even a well-run US SCV fund. Of course bonds provide...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 2913

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

The good news is that it's good for shareholders. It tends to improve PE ratios if the purchased shares are retired (good for both management stock options and shareholders) and also is a way to directly give money to shareholders in a more tax efficient way than dividends. There is also bad news. M...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1669

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

In response to my post about Primecap Fund, Ketawa wrote: With only 130 stocks in large or mid caps, I'm not sure I would be convinced that the managers of the fund are on to something that has not shown up in research, or they simply had a lucky outcome I agree. Primecap's success has been consist...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8274

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

Jack estimates future bond returns at 3%, but the bond portfolio he chooses to produce a 3% expected return has a 50% weighting in long term corporate bonds and 50% in 10 year Treasuries (or TBM) which currently yield a bit less than 2.5%. The average of those two yields is about 3% and bond returns...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1669

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

In_reality wrote: My take is that theoretical backtesting doesn't reflect the real life choices that are made for the methodology of an actual fund. It seems from the wide differences in two MOM funds with similar MOM loadings that it makes all the difference in the world. 1+ This is the whole poin...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1669

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

Mr. Asness's research may well show that MOM can be harvested on an after cost basis and outperform the appropriate comparable index. Research is one thing. Real funds are another. Let's look at the performance of AQR's 2 MOM funds which presumably over a significant time period will reflect this ou...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 297
Views: 46319

Re: Retreat to cash

lack_ey wrote: Diversify as you can, hold on, and don't make rash asset allocation decisions, especially emotional ones or something that could lead to some regrets and second-guessing*. Chances are, whatever you think could be wrong. Whatever you think of the market, the safe assumption is that yo...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?
Replies: 21
Views: 1957

Re: Corporate & Treasury Bonds: Where's the risk?

triceratop wrote: That post is only nominal returns. One should look at real returns, which is in terms of actual purchasing power, and instead in the 1970s and 1980s. Fortunately with Simba's backtesting sheet we can do exactly that. It isn't pretty. 1+ The real risk in bonds is inflation. We have...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creatures of Coherence: Why We're So Obsessed With Causation
Replies: 3
Views: 323

Re: CREATURES OF COHERENCE: WHY WE'RE SO OBSESSED WITH CAUSATION

Love the article. Thanks for posting, BogleMelon. Human minds desperately want to create theories that make sense out of noise, but in the end, much of it is just noise.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks
Replies: 57
Views: 4851

Re: Larry Swedroe: Bitcoin & It’s Risks

Thanks for posting, Random Walker. Larry is highly intelligent, very experienced, and very knowledgeable and it is helpful to get his input on an issue where there is so much confusion and ignorance, Bitcoin. Personally, I've never really understood it and still don't fully, but I've suspected from ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it
Replies: 26
Views: 1989

Re: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it

It is almost impossible to accurately value a company's true worth on a consistent basis. This is one reason why active management on the whole is a losing proposition. Very smart, very knowledgeable, and very highly paid professional fund managers try to do it and most fail to beat a beta index. Lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund
Replies: 36
Views: 3126

Re: Unsolicited advice - 32 yo w/ 80% bonds, fixed income fund

A 20/80 portfolio for a 32 year old says a great deal about how large a role emotion, especially fear of loss, plays in determining his investment strategy. Reading investment books with rational analysis may not work for him. Most peoples choices are more determined by fear, both rational and irrat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard customer service reps need some training
Replies: 66
Views: 6841

Re: Vanguard customer service reps need some training

A lot of people on this Forum complain about Vanguard in one way or another. There is a simple way for those dissatisfied with Vanguard to fix this problem. Move your assets to another firm. I wish good luck to those who choose to do this.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fama - Embrace passive management already
Replies: 16
Views: 2440

Re: Fama - Embrace passive management already

Great post. Thanks for posting it, matjen. Fama has not only depth of knowledge but also extensive experience. He sees through peddling noise analysis as insight. Refreshing.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 9650

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

I did see the 2007-9 collapse coming in time to prepare for it by selling sufficient equity to provide for several years of living expenses. When people can borrow a half million dollars for a mortgage with nothing more than a signature, no documentation of income or employment whatsoever, it doesn'...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1848

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

Great post, as usual, Todd. Nice to be reminded that we are in a period of co-ordinated world-wide economic growth, corporate profit growth throughout the world, and finally very low interest rates. There are reasons for optimism and the current generous valuations in the US reflect that underlying ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4813

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Personally I don't understand Bitcoin well enough to offer an opinion on its ultimate worth. Having said that, the graphs look bubble-like. Herd behavior and fast MOM money can drive prices solely on sentiment in the absence of any fundamentals. What the graphs say is that some people have faith in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 133
Views: 12246

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

CULater wrote: Now that Vanguard is in the game, going forward, if factor funds underperform, investors will be faced with the dilemma of figuring out whether it is cyclical (keep investing more by rebalancing in) or "factors" are broken because of over-grazing. Most, including me, will end up even...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Schwab Experiences?
Replies: 84
Views: 10743

Re: Charles Schwab Experiences?

I think Schwab is first rate. Have had consistently good experiences with them. If you're interested in frequent trading, individual stock picking, extensive access to individual stock research, options, etc., as well as low cost indexes in both factor and cap weight, Schwab is a good one stop sourc...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCOL vs HCOL real estate - which is the better buy?
Replies: 13
Views: 1149

Re: LCOL vs HCOL real estate - which is the better buy?

Frisco Kid wrote: While true that many of us have seen significant home appreciation, now retired and planning to stay where we are all that equity does is pad our net worth unless we sell the property. That in a nutshell is the problem. On paper your house is worth a million or two, but you can't ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation [in market crash]
Replies: 38
Views: 1934

Re: Asset Allocation [in market crash]

2ndRoad805 wrote: Should I bank on grand scale Market Correction? For the answer, flip a coin. It will be at least as likely to be accurate as expert advice. Personally I don't believe in large wholesale changes to asset allocation based on one's predictions of the market's future. Harvard grads wh...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?
Replies: 133
Views: 12246

Re: Vanguard to launch US 'smart beta' ETFs - Will this board burn down?

Factor investing approaches have strong appeal which is why so much money is flowing that way at present. Vanguard's new offerings both legitimize these approaches and will provide low cost alternatives to the more costly funds/etfs that pursue these strategies. Personally, I have two beliefs on thi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"
Replies: 63
Views: 7857

Re: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"

I actually enjoyed reading the Vanguard piece. No one predicts the future accurately but they aren't actually making predictions, instead talking about probabilities. I think they are correct in their main points. US returns going forward are likely to be significantly lower than historical. INTL eq...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What makes real estate a unique sector?
Replies: 25
Views: 1616

Re: What makes real estate a unique sector?

birdog wrote:
I guess, like many comparisons, it depends on what time frame you look at.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Is Your Stockpicker Lucky or Good?
Replies: 8
Views: 751

Re: WSJ - Is Your Stockpicker Lucky or Good?

I think this raises an important point, the difficulty in separating luck from skill in terms of explaining past fund performance. Another hurdle is that past fund success often leads to future failure, not just from luck turning but also from performance chasing dollars accruing in huge volume to s...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonfire of the Opinions of Experts
Replies: 3
Views: 806

Re: Bonfire of the Opinions of Experts

John Mauldin has a spotty record with his own market forecasts. CXO Advisory Group produces a "Guru Grades" measure based on the percentage of each guru's predictions turn out to be accurate. Of the 211 predictions by Mr. Mauldin, he was correct only 39.9% of the time. Interestingly most of the 64 m...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 91
Views: 13453

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I'll read it when it becomes available. Congratulations and thanks to Taylor for authoring the book and for support of the Forum from which all of us learn. Like our mentor, Mr. Bogle, Taylor's goal is not primarily to line his own pocket but rather to share his knowledge with other investors who wi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 104
Views: 16449

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

NPT wrote: On a more philosophical note, the theory of safe assets seems to violate the law of no free lunches... 1+ There is risk in any asset, some much greater than others. One major risk of a 100% TIPS LMP is that you cannot accurately estimate what your necessary living costs are going to be i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5168

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Robert T wrote: Another point not really touched on in this thread is taxes. According to M*, since inception of QSPIX: Pre-tax return = 8.21% After-tax return = 5.71% Tax cost = 2.50% So adding expense ratio (1.50%) + tax cost (2.50%) = 4.00% 1+ Very cogent point. Investment returns, regardless of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 8
Views: 1305

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 8
Views: 1305

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4689

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

nedsaid wrote: I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get ol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 709

Re: Intrinsic Value

EMT is a theory, not a law. There are exceptions to the rule from time to time. The market does a better job of setting asset prices in general than the individual. I believe however that there are some individuals who can identify specific stocks or classes of stocks that are mis-priced and/or mis-...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9903

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

I've been retired for 20 years and my investment portfolio is larger now than when I first retired. I feel pretty confident now, a lot more confident than I felt during the tech collapse of 2000-2003 or the financial collapse of 2007-2009. I managed to avoid panic selling on both occasions which was...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1769

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

It seems to me that the bottom line for investors is that at present you aren't getting paid much to take on duration risk in the bond market. The spreads between short term and long term bonds have been narrowing, just like the spreads between highest and lowest quality bonds. Add to this the expec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 58
Views: 5168

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 5218

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

I think my first and most persistent teacher has been the school of hard knocks. Making investment mistakes and behavioral errors actually turns out to be an effective teacher. Losing money is a potent stimulus for long term memory retention. Missing the opportunity when the gift horse is knocking o...