Search found 1466 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?
Replies: 14
Views: 2310

Re: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?

Valuethinker wrote: The manager of VG Prime MMF has given an interview (I don't have a link) in which he says: - they are cognizant of the direct European risks-- no Italian or Greek bank paper - they have studied the secondary risks and are very 'tight' (short maturity, exposure only to the best c...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 504

Re: TIPS yield curve

As an aside, short term rates are largely controlled FED policy. The FED has already raised rates and plans to continue doing so unless the inflation/employment picture deteriorates. Long term rates change much less in response to FED policy than to the bond markets assessment of future long term ec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5620

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

triceratop wrote: Of course there is default risk, that is why the yield on this bond is so high. I'm less sure how the fact it is priced in USD implies more default risk. Wouldn't there be objections to investing in this bond if it was priced in Pesos since the investor would be taking on signific...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 5620

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

It is easy to understand why Argentina might issue 100 year bonds. In this country inflation is a constant and has been so for a long time. The currency is volatile to say the very least, sometimes almost illiquid. Fiscal policy is imprudent now and has been often in the past. The governmental defic...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 3812

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Yes, it is true that stocks are risky, but it is also true that for long term investors whose goal is to have portfolio growth they are essential. Many on this Forum prize intermediate Treasuries as the an example of ultra-low risk and suggest a heavy allocation to that asset class because of its sa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active
Replies: 5
Views: 1162

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active

Thanks for posting this article, Random Walker. Read it and enjoyed it. I really miss Larry's input on the Forum and these posts are helpful at keeping us in touch with Larry's insights.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 2443

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

There is a bandwagon of money now seeking factor approaches and I suspect Wealthfront, like other financial companies, is shooting for a slice of that market with this new approach. The profit motive drives the vast majority of corporate decisions. When it comes to factors these are tough times to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 1956

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

Congratulations on moving to the Palo Alto/SF Bay area. It used to be a great place to live. I know I used to live there. The good news is that the area is the intellectual/creative engine that drives much of worldwide technology innovation and the resultant tech income stream for the US and much of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2120

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

nedsaid wrote: Yes, there is a lot of noise in the financial data. And yes, numbers change over time as there seems to be a lot of slipperiness. International Stocks were the "must have" asset class before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and now they are hardly worthy of the dustbin. In a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 104
Views: 10208

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: On the other hand, Ally Bank is offering a no-penalty CD at 1.35% for $25K minimum, and it was worth the five minutes it took me to open two of them last week (since I already have Ally accounts, and use Ally as my hub bank). I just went to the Ally Bank web site and checked on their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 104
Views: 10208

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: Finally! So why haven't you been using an "insured liquid bank account" earning 1% in preference to a MM account earning 0.01%? Currently Prime MM fund is yielding 1.01%. My local bank doesn't offer savings accounts that yield that much but even if they did I'd leave my mon...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use of options, leverage, and short sales
Replies: 2
Views: 314

Use of options, leverage, and short sales

The following is an article by Rekenthaler of Morningstar about complex strategies that are used by hedge funds and the mutual funds that follow option, leverage, and short selling strategies. On average these strategies over the past decade have reduced rather than enhanced returns relative to plai...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 104
Views: 10208

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Two things about MM funds. First, they are instantly liquid at all times. CDs are not and have penalties for withdrawal before maturity. Second, the principal value, unlike short term bond funds, does not decline in an environment like ours at present when the FED is raising now and plans to continu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6858

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

nedsaid wrote: Simplegift, the one thing left out of your original post are Health Care costs which have been increasing faster than inflation. Also for seniors, health care costs tend to be a bigger budget item than for younger investors. Nedsaid makes a good point. The problem is that the factors...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2513

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

Simplegift wrote: • For Stocks: The earnings yield of S&P 500 (reciprocal of current PE 10, or 1/26) = 3.85% • For Bonds: The current yield of 20-year TIPS Bond = 0.77% That's about the same estimates that I'm using for future returns which I hope is a conservative estimate. Attempts at estimat...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 4981

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

carolinaman wrote: This article makes me think of the statement "If you have already won the game why keep playing?" Some people have high equity allocation through their working careers and have achieved a lot of success with their investments. As they reach retirement they tend to forge...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

cantrip wrote: On Vanguard's "Portfolio and Management" page under VGSIX it predicts a 17.3% Earnings Growth Rate for the coming year. From a factual point of view this statement is incorrect. Vanguard makes no predictions about what the earnings growth rate will be going forward. The Ear...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM SCV Liquidity
Replies: 4
Views: 560

Re: EM SCV Liquidity

I am a long term buy-and-hold investor usually I don't do limit orders just market orders. If you're going to hold it for 5 years, it makes very little difference to spend time and trouble with a nickel and dime approach to purchases and sales. DGS, one of my holdings, has a total asset base of 1.21...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6858

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Great post, Simplegift. Brings up a very interesting question that has major long term implications for DM economies and investments. I tend to agree that all DM demographics are unfavorable and getting worse, with historically low labor force participation rates, and that these changes are not temp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10183

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

willthrill81 wrote:
Nobody knows nothin'.


1+

The main function of predictors of the economic future is to make fortune tellers look good--Warren Buffett's take on predictors and predictions.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 4857

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Random Walker wrote: Haven't seen the article. I can only give you my cumulative opinion from the lay person's reading I have done. To me the risk story for value makes complete sense: higher cost of capital, more leveraged, distressed, more variable earnings. When I started my interest in value I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1154

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

I am not saying that Cliff Asness is a con man. I believe he is honest and as I said before highly intelligent and knowledgeable. I further believe that he completely believes in what AQR sells and gives rational and often compelling reasons for his choices based on backtesting data. I merely made t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 754

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

I have my assets with Vanguard but TRP is now and has been for a long, long time an excellent and reputable financial firm which has, I believe, advised investors well over the years, kept active management fees relatively low, and in general provided good returns for investors.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1154

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

Asness presents AQR's point of view effectively as one would expect. He is very smart and very knowledgeable guy. I have been listening to and reading the opinions and analysis of financial experts who are very smart and very knowledgeable for 3 decades. Two things are striking about their insights....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 754

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

Good information, Paul, thanks for posting. Interesting article by from T Rowe Price on Growth versus Value investing. In the large cap arena LC Growth beat LC Value by 9.5% in 2015. However in 2016 LC Value beat LC Growth by 10.2%. T Rowe Price makes the case that historically there are periods of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2503

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Simplegift wrote: ust from curiosity, charted below are the annual deviations of the price index from the fundamental values in the OP. With today’s high market valuations, plus intense interest around the world in U.S. companies and their prospects, one wonders if there will ever be a future time ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2503

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Great post, Simplegift. It makes the point that underlying fundamentals over the long haul have exerted gravity on market price euphoria and conversely given a lift to market price desperation from panic. Speculative return is powerful over short time spans but negligible over the long run. It also ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 5186

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: stocks are for accumulating wealth, bonds are for preserving wealth and cash is for spending wealth. Make sure you have enought cash and bonds so you don't have to sell your stocks and allow them time to recover. When they do, you sell stocks that have recovered and incr...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6169

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

joer1212 wrote: Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? It is a simple question but there's a problem. We never know beforehand the exact details of whi...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2257

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Simplegift wrote: One wonders if something has fundamentally changed in the equity REIT market since Mr. Bernstein made his post? Or whether it's just been extreme yield-seeking by investors in a low interest rate environment? Up until 2010, low dividend yields were historically correlated with low...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: What support do you have for REITs being overvalued? I showed two graphs showing they are undervalued based on recent NAV discounts and currently in line in regards to P/FFO. The total market is trading at higher valuations than recent history, implying REITs are undervalued compare...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7166

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: In 1997 the dividends paid by Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (VGSIX) were 77 cents per share. In 2016, the dividends were 1.28 per share. This is a growth of around 2.5% annualized. There are two factors to take into account in this. One is share price. In 1997 the share p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 2958

Re: Angel Investing

I have made angel investments so I'm speaking from experience. Do not invest any money in an angel investment that you aren't fully prepared to lose every penny of. These investments are totally illiquid and subject to much higher levels of risk than any other investment alternative I'm aware of, pe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 4975

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Simplegift wrote: In short, when times are good, investors are willing to pay more for the same dollar of earnings than when times are dire. 1+ The simple truth. One thing I must disagree with is the argument that there is no relationship between economic growth as measured by GDP and equity return...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?
Replies: 8
Views: 1591

Re: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?

Most international equity funds do not include emerging market exposure. VTIAX does and that has negatively impacted its returns in recent years relative to its peers due to EM underperformance. Hence the low ratings. When EM outperform DM for a signifiant period of time, It is expected that VTIAX w...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?
Replies: 28
Views: 4595

Re: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

For me, there's a simple answer the question: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 4975

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Great post, Simplegift, thanks for posting. I agree with the basic thrust of the article. Bernstein has made a similar observation, as markets and economies become more developed and stable, less risky, their valuations go up and their expected returns drop. Higher than historically average PE ratio...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2396

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

Two quotes from Arnott's article are IMO likely true: We find that the performance of the market, value, and momentum factors in live portfolios is sharply lower than their performance in theoretical model portfolios. This may be contributing to many of the new live factor strategies faring as poorl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 78
Views: 7837

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Just my 2 cents worth. I believe this portfolio to be excessively conservative (a person at retirement should have 80% of assets in TIPS plus LMP) for most because given the size of the portfolios of most retirees, a TIPS plus LMP will not provide them with sufficient income to cover retirement expe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations
Replies: 13
Views: 1639

Re: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations

I think Larry and nedsaid are on target on this question. Lower but positive intermediate/long term returns but not a severe bear market on the horizon such as what follows the popping of a bubble.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2396

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

For those who wish to pursue factor investing approaches I agree with grap0013 that the RAFI Fundamental Index Strategy is a reasonable approach. In effect it chooses stocks that are on sale but have strong underlying fundamentals, a combo of VAL plus QUAL. The combination of VAL plus QUAL is basica...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 1026

Re: PEG Ratio

The problems is that it is very difficult to predict expected future earnings which on average have historically been about 10% too optimistic with a wide range of variability. It is even more difficult to predict what future earrings growth will be. A lot can change in 12 months particularly in hot...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 7685

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

VictoriaF wrote: This is true about individual TIPS. What about TIPS funds and ETFs such as LTPZ? Victoria I refer you to the Vanguard paper that discusses LT versus ST TIPS. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s328.pdf Long term TIPS are a less effective inflation hedge and more volatile in principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?
Replies: 28
Views: 1311

Re: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?

nisi wrote; In short, what happens as factor-based investing gets increasingly popular? Answer: it becomes diminishingly effective. What happens as cap-weighted total-market indexing gets increasingly popular? Answer: nothing. It is the only strategy that cannot get "crowded" or "ove...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2696

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting posts. I enjoyed in particular the article cited in chuffy's post, "Does Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets?" Sometimes as someone wrote, "the more you know, the less you know." It appears that nothing in the way of predators of future returns gives iron clad gu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 7685

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

Long term TIPS offer a guaranteed positive real return over a long time frame, hence "bullet proof." The price you pay for being "bullet proof" is that its principal value is volatile and fully subject to duration risk, so that if you are forced to sell them before maturity you c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2696

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting. I guess the question is can we use these results from the last 24 years as a basis for projecting the future for the next 24 years in terms of market returns for USA, China,and India. Many analysts now believe that, based on valuations, demographics, increasing middle class populat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 21, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 847

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

mikeguima wrote: ALL investible assets right now (which according to the CAPM is actually the real efficient risky portfolio, not the SP500, not a world index of stocks, therefore, theoretically, it should be the best portfolio available), you would have a portfolio which is roughly 40% stocks, 55%...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 20, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???
Replies: 15
Views: 4020

Re: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???

Saw it, actually quite engrossing. It was amazingly easy for a sociopath conman to hoodwink some some of the richest, most famous and supposedly brightest people in America. It also showed how totally inept regulators were. Based on a tip they actually investigated Madoff's multi-billion dollar equi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1912

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

nedsaid wrote: Garland, one possible answer is to shift some funds from US Stocks to International Stocks were valuations are more reasonable. Emerging Markets have looked particularly cheap. I have been doing some very modest shifts in my own portfolio. I'm with you on that one, nedsaid, and have ...

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