Search found 1166 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 25, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 53
Views: 4213

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

bjr89 wrote: Something that seems to elude many people is that stocks fell almost 90% from peak to trough due to the Great Depression, and they didn't recover to the previous high until 1954. There is no reason this couldn't happen again -- and it could take longer to recover, or never recover at a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 25, 2016 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience makes perfect
Replies: 7
Views: 1098

Re: Patience makes perfect

SGENX, as others have stated, has a high cost structure (5% load, 1.11% expense ratio) and at least for me is not an investment option. It's philosophy: patience, discipline, and insight in value investing is essentially the same strategy that the Oracle of Omaha has used and is a solid one. In succ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 23, 2016 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1783

Re: The Perils of Historical Asset Returns

Great post, Simplegift. I tend to agree with the premise that although the future is not predictable there are basic macroeconomic factors present today which suggest but do not guarantee lower than historical equity, bond, and real asset returns going forward for perhaps a decade or more. I don't b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 23, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 53
Views: 4213

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

notsobright wrote: In the end, aren't we all just gambling since we don't know for certain what the market will be like? We're all assuming that the market will have positive returns over the course of our lifetimes. Is that a safe assumption? The only thing that you know with certainty about the f...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 21, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 1899

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

callguy1 wrote: So they recommended upping the real assets/alternatives bucket focusing on high 8%+ dividends, since those will 1) keep up with inflation and 2) produce some real return from the income even if there's 20 years of stagnation. Question: where do they find 8%+ dividends these days? I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 05, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting David Swensen Lazy Porfolio against Three Fund
Replies: 57
Views: 8390

Re: Backtesting David Swensen Lazy Porfolio against Three Fund

nisi wrote: 5) The argument for the three-fund portfolio is not "it's better." The argument is that there's no way to be sure anything else is better, and that investors who focus on "the best" instead of "good enough" are likely to have trouble staying the course beca...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 03, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P2P Real Estate Investing
Replies: 8
Views: 1020

Re: P2P Real Estate Investing

Direct quote from the article referred to above: But because you’re not competing in the well-developed 30-year residential mortgage market, you can expect to collect annual interest in the 7-10% range, rather than the 3-4% that mortgage securities pay their owners. In current market conditions any...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 03, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 87
Views: 8546

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Bernanke's article on "helicopter money" is very enlightening for those interested in its theory which suggests potential positive effects when central banks have run out of all other alternatives to stimulate growth and fight deflation. The problem, he suggests, is in the exact details of...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 01, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 1 — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon
Replies: 46
Views: 5744

Re: Classic Bernstein — Asset Allocation and Time Horizon

Simplegift wrote: a) Since the best performing asset classes (or factors) can’t be known in advance, it’s impossible to specify exactly what the best asset allocation will be in the coming decades. As long-term investors, all we can do is choose a portfolio allocation that meets our expected return...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 01, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?
Replies: 19
Views: 2018

Re: Fundamental Indexing Is The Better Way To Value Tilt?

Given a certain time period it is incredibly easy on backtesting to create a portfolio with the exact mixture of beta, small, value, momentum, etc., to maximize returns, get rid of negative alpha, and reduce portfolio volatility sufficiently to create a higher Sharpe ratio. Anyone moderately accompl...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 29, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major stock shareholder effect
Replies: 4
Views: 340

Re: Major stock shareholder effect

I do not buy or sell individual stocks any more. I've been that route many years ago and learned that for most of us, it is a losing proposition. But if I did...I would not be inclined to sell any of my APPL position because Icahn did. Rather I would be more inclined to buy it now. Nothing has chang...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 29, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 6815

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

There are several things that make our age different from prior eras and therefore cast some doubt on the reliability of achieving historical rates of return going forward. The biggest two factors in the US (and all developed economies) are debt and demographics. Ultimately this, combined with curre...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 28, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 6815

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

Robert T wrote: Start saving early, have an equity orientation (Swensen), diversify globally, keep costs low, have realistic expectations (and reduce 'behavioral mistakes'). Great post, Robert T. This is in my opinion the take home message. Given current circumstances (as well as any circumstances a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 27, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 87
Views: 8546

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

It seems to me the goal of QE is to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates beyond what can be achieved with standard monetary policy. In theory lower interest rates should stimulate borrowing by individuals and corporations which then spend the money and stimulate economic activity. This e...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Smart-Beta War Rages On as Cliff Asness Slams Pimco Star's Paper
Replies: 6
Views: 918

Re: Smart-Beta War Rages On as Cliff Asness Slams Pimco Star's Paper

Time will tell who's right and who's wrong in this debate. Or perhaps both the EM dominated portfolio of Arnott based on current attractive valuations and the multi-factor portfolio of Asness will underperform a simple low cost TSM + TISM fund portfolio in the long run. Asness and Arnott are bright,...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)
Replies: 13
Views: 1156

Re: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)

nedsaid wrote: Garland, I actually would consider investing in such a fund. I have three difficulties in investing in such funds. First, my eyes glaze over when I read the posts explaining how these things work. Second, I have to trust that the folks who run such funds actually know what they are d...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott's Echoes of 1999: The Tech Bubble and the "Asian Flu"
Replies: 8
Views: 1113

Re: Arnott's Echoes of 1999: The Tech Bubble and the "Asian Flu"

Very good and insightful posts, Simplegift, as usual for you. After an absence of posting for a time, it's nice to have you back, Todd.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)
Replies: 13
Views: 1156

Re: Barron's: The Real Alternative in Multi-Alts (AQR's QSPIX featured)

The first paragraph of the article: So far, the funds in Morningstar’s new multi-alternative category have mainly proved to be an alternative to making actual money. To date, these poor-man’s hedge funds have eked out a meager 1.6% five-year annualized return, compared with 11.6% for stocks and 3.7%...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Strategy?
Replies: 26
Views: 3013

Re: Bond Fund Strategy?

The bond market is very efficient at pricing risk based on current real time information, more so in my opinion than the stock market. One of the few certainties you can count on is this: if a fixed income product is offering a higher interest rate, it also has higher inherent risk which includes a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10
Replies: 29
Views: 2674

Re: A different look at the Shiller CAPE 10

Excellent article, Larry, thanks. And excellent comments especially Rick's. It provides a bit of balm to soothe the shattered nerves created by the doomsters. I certainly hope these future projections (5%+ real US equity returns going forward) turn out to be true. I do not wish to rain on this optim...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock picking services
Replies: 39
Views: 2454

Re: Stock picking services

Looking at the apparent success of stock picking services (25% gain was spoken of), the question of luck versus skill is a tricky one especially when a short time frame is our data reference. In a sense as has been pointed out all active management funds are run by stock pickers, buying only the goo...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 181
Views: 22866

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

In retrospect grap0013 made a good call on EM and has profited from it. I agree with him that EM equity valuations are still attractive relative to DM and especially to US. There is clearly more political risk, more corruption, more currency risk, and more instability in EM, but those risks are full...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem
Replies: 45
Views: 3968

Re: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem

Great article, Larry, thanks for explaining the complexity of choosing when to annuitize and which product to use for those considering such options. The IRA distribution deferred annuity makes sense from both a tax and longevity risk point of view. A couple of potential problems with deferred annui...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 09, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 16825

Re: Disappearing premiums!

nedsaid wrote: Markets do have moods. When they are pessimistic, they can't stand good news. Conversely, optimistic markets shake off bad news. I just don't buy that markets are rational all of the time. I look at value as quality stocks that are out of favor for some reason. That reason might be t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 08, 2016 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

lack_ey wrote: It's kind of strangely coincidental and bizarre that you only really talked about the options, whereas the fund actually does significantly use swaps, futures, and forwards. I used the word options a lot but all the derivatives potentially used by QLEIX (swaps, futures, forward conta...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

lack_ey wrote: AQR Long/Short Equity Fund (QLEIX, QLENX, QLERX) doesn't use options, though, which you have repeatedly mentioned, unless I've missed something. AQR's QLEIX strategy information for investors mention that they employ derivatives and that those derivatives may lose more principal than...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 08, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha or Assets
Replies: 1
Views: 258

Re: Alpha or Assets

Interesting piece, thanks for posting. The basic premise has merit. One problem is that a highly concentrated portfolio of optimal stocks focusing strictly on alpha and not at all on scale is not available to most investors. When it does well money pours in and soon it of necessity switches to a sca...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 07, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

lack_ey wrote in response to my post: Sorry, color me confused, but which fund are you even talking about? Ticker symbol? Which funds are heavily using options? Sorry, the fund I was describing was QLEIX, AQR'S LONG SHORT EQUITY FUND. It has done quite well since inception relative to long only or ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Simple vs. Complex"
Replies: 12
Views: 1880

Re: "Simple vs. Complex"

Great post, Taylor, thanks. I think the time course for many investors through a lifetime of investing starts with maximal complexity (individual stock picking with a broker, frequent trading). After some bad experiences there, we move to a collection mutual funds, most actively managed, often a com...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity
Replies: 44
Views: 3830

Re: Review of AQR Equity Market Neutral & Long-Short Equity

The AQR long short option fund has done quite well since its inception, but the short time frame is short. I do not know whether this success is due to luck or skill. Nor do I know, even if it is due to skill, will this out-perfmance persist going forward? If due to luck, one suspects that it will n...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 30, 2016 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: screening on buyback yield
Replies: 5
Views: 498

Re: screening on buyback yield

If you're really interested in screening for buyback yield, you should look at PKW, the PowerShares BuyBack Achievers™ Portfolio Fund which is based on the NASDAQ US BuyBack Achievers™ Index. From the prospectus: The Fund will normally invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stocks that co...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 29, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]
Replies: 23
Views: 1882

Re: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]

I believe that EM, INTL SC, and especially EM SC offer better diversification and likely better long term returns in a US dominated portfolio than LC DM (which is a lot like US LC) or cap weight INTL index. My equity portfolio currently is 50% US (75% TSM/25% VBR),12.5% EM SCV (DGS)/12.5 EM cap weig...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3% annuity costs a little more than a CPI-U adjusted one
Replies: 17
Views: 1412

Re: 3% annuity costs a little more than a CPI-U adjusted one

Taylor wrote: I would not choose now. I think you should probably put-off purchasing a lifetime annuity (SPIA) until your late 70's or early 80s. There are many reasons: * Inflation is less important so the cost of an "inflation-rider" may be avoided. * The cash premium might be needed fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 29, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foot Locker stock up ~2% after announcement of inclusion in S&P 500. Contradiction of EMH?
Replies: 15
Views: 1412

Re: Foot Locker stock up ~2% after announcement of inclusion in S&P 500. Contradiction of EMH?

One way to overcome the index reconstitution market inefficiency (which is a very small factor anyway in the big picture) is to use TSM as your index. The stock that is announced to go into the S&P 500 index goes one way in price, up or down, and the one omitted from the index goes the other way...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting stock market returns accurately?
Replies: 52
Views: 3156

Re: Predicting stock market returns accurately?

Interesting piece. This method of forecasting relies primarily on sentiment, the periodic swings between collective investor optimism (typically when investors increase stock allocation relative to alternatives like bonds and cash) and collective investor pessimism in which the opposite occurs. It p...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 24, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P500)
Replies: 34
Views: 3142

Re: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P50

I believe that in general the bond market is more efficient in asset pricing than the stock market. That means that there are few, if any, exploitable areas in the bond market where you get more long term return without a commensurate increase in risk. The spectrum from T Bills (least risk, least re...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 22, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 6535

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

Dirghatamas wrote: So, in total if buybacks allow me to defer taxes, my total taxation would go from 37% down to 15% or perhaps even 0%. These are not small changes, they are first order shifts. Buybacks are perfect because they give you potential cash, tax free at first and let you convert it to a...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative yields for 29% of Developed Market Sovereign Debt
Replies: 13
Views: 1417

Re: Negative yields for 29% of Developed Market Sovereign Debt

nisi wrote: In fact, I did the math once and calculated that, based only on mortality data and mortality credits, an insurance company should be capable of providing a life annuity that pays a 75-year-old 8% of the premium every year 8% return sounds good but it's important to remember that the 75 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 21, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new study on trading of active funds
Replies: 5
Views: 908

Re: Interesting new study on trading of active funds

Interesting post, Larry, thanks. I find herding to be a plausible explanation for the failure of trading in aggregate to increase investor return. Many active traders pursue the same investment themes at the same time and overgraze the available alpha. It certainly makes sense. One question in my mi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 20, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 6535

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

I haven't read the entire thread so please excuse me if someone has written this before. As to the question of taxes, dividends are taxable currently at the level of long term capital gains. So you pay taxes on your annual dividends but this also decreases the cost basis of your existing shares by a...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you time premiums?
Replies: 18
Views: 1795

Re: Can you time premiums?

Interesting article. Market timing is a tricky business seems to be the bottom line, something that we should all know by now. Clearly there are episodes in the past where in retrospect it seems like a no-brainer to market time and outperform. For example, switching from large cap growth of tech sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One boring day in the market, one legendary fund bucks the trend
Replies: 28
Views: 5666

Re: One boring day in the market, one legendary fund bucks the trend

I may be old fashioned but I am pleased that Valeant has crashed and taken with it big some legendary names (Ackman and Sequoia Fund). In general the financial industry's moral compass lies somewhere between amoral and immoral. Valeant is a clearly a case of immoral where greed rules unchecked by an...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Has Beaten DFA and Vanguard (3% annually!) Since 2009 on an Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Basis. HOW?!?
Replies: 33
Views: 3711

Re: RAFI Has Beaten DFA and Vanguard (3% annually!) Since 2009 on an Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Basis. HOW?!?

Larry wrote: DCA can be helpful in supplying a psychological crutch which at least allows people to invest in the face of uncertainty, which is easier for many to do with small amounts than large amounts Do not underestimate the importance of psychological crutches in making market timing moves. To...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 15, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying The Course, or Anchoring?
Replies: 42
Views: 4978

Re: Staying The Course, or Anchoring?

Love Jason Zweig's article. Thanks for the post, Taylor. Broadly based index fund investing is not something that seems initially attractive to the naive inexperienced investor who, prompted by smooth marketing of active funds, thinks, "Why settle for average?" I have been down this path m...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 36
Views: 7492

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Stock picking doesn't work for most of us, but it sounds like nedsaid has had some very good long term experiences with Plum Creek for example. Nedsaid has a lot of experience in investing, does his research, and has a non-emotional approach which helps a lot. He is not afraid to make well-reasoned ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]
Replies: 41
Views: 4988

Re: Less is more

Quark wrote: I just posted a link to a study on the relation between economic growth and stock market returns here That study did in fact show a negative correlation between economic growth and stock returns on a country by country basis. The countries that grew fastest (mostly EM) had the lowest s...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 13, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]
Replies: 41
Views: 4988

Less is more [Vanguard blog - 2% economic growth prediction]

Joe Davis, Vanguard's chief economist, has posted a new article on the Vanguard website. In it he argues that 2% annual real economic growth is our future, the new normal due to aging demographics, stagnant worker productivity growth, high levels of debt especially personal debt (credit cards and mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Mar 11, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My summary of the latest SPIVA report card
Replies: 8
Views: 860

Re: My summary of the latest SPIVA report card

The constant refrain you'll hear on CNBC and other financial media is: "This is a stock picker's market." I've been investing for 30 years and I don't remember a single time when it wasn't a "stock picker's market" according to those who profit from active management. Their dupli...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Monitor Your Portfolio Once This Year, Then Ignore It"
Replies: 53
Views: 6727

Re: "Monitor Your Portfolio Once This Year, Then Ignore It"

This is great advice, but it's hard for me to do.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VG Precious Metals & Mining Fund up 21% this year. Why aren't other ETFs?
Replies: 48
Views: 1486

Re: VGPMX [Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining Fund]

nedsaid wrote: Postby nedsaid » Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:30 pm Garland, I want to congratulate you on your investment in this fund. You didn't get the timing perfect but you were within a year of the upswing in this fund. Unfortunately, I did not make any investment in precious metal funds. I passed on ...

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