Search found 1095 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"
Replies: 9
Views: 1225

Re: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"

Goldman Sachs has the reputation for employing the smartest guys in finance. Based on this one must conclude one of two things or perhaps some mixture of the two. First, the smartest guys in the room don't have clue about what the market is going to do at least on a consistent basis. Or, second, per...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Benefit to SCV Tilt?
Replies: 5
Views: 511

Re: Diversification Benefit to SCV Tilt?

Park wrote: It is common to hear a recommendation for a 30-50% stock allocation to foreign stocks. Yet US SCV gave the same diversification benefit, without the currency risk. And foreign stocks are "useless as a hedge against inflation", whereas domestic stocks provide some long term pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 10, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Cost Matters Hypothesis"
Replies: 3
Views: 439

Re: "The Cost Matters Hypothesis"

Excellent post, Taylor, thanks. It's a post that all investors should read.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skill vs luck in stock picking
Replies: 32
Views: 2304

Re: Skill vs luck in stock picking

It's not only a question of skill vs luck but also of market cycle dynamics. Value investors do well when value outperforms growth but lag the market when growth outperforms value. These cycles often run for a decade or more in which some combo of large/small, value/growth outperforms usually follow...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the small cap premium
Replies: 28
Views: 2391

Re: A look at the small cap premium

Frankly I have a certain amount of skepticism about the small cap premium when it is based on backtesting an index. Survival bias (more SC stocks fail and go out of business than LC stocks) is part of the problem. When a SC stock drops out of an index like the Russell 2K, the index itself suffers no...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3648

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

Oil and all industrial commodity prices are not the drivers but instead are a proxy for global aggregate supply--demand imbalances. For years China's insatiable appetite for commodities pumped up what was called the commodity super cycle, fueled largely with debt induced industrial economic growth. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has growth beaten value recently?
Replies: 9
Views: 770

Re: Why has growth beaten value recently?

Belliavsky wrote: Why has value been underperforming growth? Here are some speculations: (1) Financial stocks tend to be value stocks, and they underperformed, especially in 2008. (2) Energy stocks tend to be value stocks, and they underperformed in 2015. (3) Value stocks tend to outperform when th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 7659

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Larry wrote: I can tell you that the bull markets of late 90s and from 2003-07 and from 2009-14 allowed many to lower their equity exposure. And changes in valuations can lead to smaller but meaningful changes, giving investors a better chance of achieving their goals with the least amount of risk....
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal weight index funds
Replies: 46
Views: 3198

Re: Equal weight index funds

longinest wrote: It is cheaper, because total-market index funds are almost always cheaper than other index funds. More tax efficient, because total-market index funds have very low turnover. It is simpler. Changing the risk of the portfolio, as one advances in age and as the portfolio grows, simpl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited
Replies: 28
Views: 4302

Re: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited

Robert T wrote: Is $40,152 materially greater than $25,036? Growth in $1000 of S&P500 Barra/Value vs. S&P500 Barra/Growth: 1975-2002 Is $23,151 materially greater than $13,85? Growth in $1000 of Russell 3000 Value vs. Russell 3000 Growth: 1979-2002 Is $79,570 materially greater than $67,264...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012
Replies: 16
Views: 1742

Re: College endowments gain 2.4 percent in worst showing since 2012

It will be interesting to see the investment results of the new MSCI Multi-factor ETFs over time. Their strategy sounds compelling in terms of factor exposures but there is sometimes a wide gulf between strategy and outcome. There is no debate that on backtesting with cost-free long-short portfolios...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and factor exposure
Replies: 8
Views: 1140

Re: Buybacks and factor exposure

TTFS as per Robert T's post sounds like an interesting approach and to date in its 3 year life span it has outperformed comparable indexes. The only problem is the 0.99% expense ratio which provides a considerable hurtle to overcome year in and year out relative to low cost indexes. So far it has do...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide Dividend Trends
Replies: 12
Views: 1216

Re: Worldwide Dividend Trends

dirghatamas wrote: The part here that is absolutely crazy is the culture of borrowing money to pay dividends (just to keep dividends stable). That hurts both the company and the shareholder. The company has to pay interest on the money it borrows and then the shareholder has to pay taxes on the cas...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 28, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and factor exposure
Replies: 8
Views: 1140

Re: Buybacks and factor exposure

Robert T's post is very interesting re: buybacks and factor exposure. There is an etf, SYLD, run by Mebane Faber which focuses on what he calls shareholder value. He uses buybacks minus new share issuance which is a real counterweight to buybacks, that is to say net company ownership by shareholders...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Damodaran on AAPL: CNBC interview (1-27-16)
Replies: 6
Views: 895

Re: Damodaran on AAPL: CNBC interview (1-27-16)

Maynard F Speer wrote: .. Maybe Apple are a little different ... PEG ratio around 1.1 ... Not a bargain, but pretty good in this day and age I agree that PEG is an indicator to be considered but there is no magic to it. Like other indictors it assumes that earnings growth (EG) will continue into th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF.COM article critical of VWO & EEM
Replies: 25
Views: 1498

Re: "Top Emerging Market ETFs Are Flawed"

I agree with Mr. Carter that EM efts can be flawed by holding as much as 30% of their portfolios in state owned enterprises. However, there is a broadly based EM etf which excludes all state owned enterprises, XSOE from Wisdom Tree. If one compares the results of XSOE to VWO, oddly VWO wins over the...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Happy Birthday Taylor!
Replies: 87
Views: 3694

Re: Happy Birthday Taylor!

Happy Birthday, Taylor. A heartfelt thanks for your posts, your support for the Forum, and the investing help and insight that those of us who follow the Forum have derived from you. You are a true gem and a man who makes the world a better place.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 7659

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

saurabh wrote: With S&P 500 earnings growing at 2-3% per year in real terms, and let us say dividend yield is around 2%, then expected real return in absence of valuation changes should be 4-5% per year. Over a decade long holding period this implies a doubling of earnings in real terms. By the...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3301

Re: Jack's nuances.

I tend to agree with both of Jack's nuances. I think his change in outlook reflects his perception of a changing market, historically low interest rates on high quality bonds for example. In the past high quality bonds provided both security and a positive inflation adjusted yield. There was little ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2315

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

The most extreme market declines (about 50%+) when accompanied by universal bearish sentiment among investors and extremely attractive equity valuations--these have historically been excellent buying opportunities for buy and hold investors in the US. There is always a caveat however. In the Great D...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity
Replies: 22
Views: 1995

Re: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity

Nisi wrote: P.S. The big take-home message I get from the article is that staying the course in a simple portfolio is likely to be better than being fickle about a complex one, and you should not sign on to something that you can't maintain a bulldog-tenacious conviction in. (Incidentally: that app...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 270
Views: 37123

Re: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]

It is quite difficult to consistently predict when a market crash/recession/depression is going to occur in actionable time before it occurs. The so called financial experts and the media talking heads and the purveyors of funds, efts in either active or passive management failed as a group to predi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity
Replies: 22
Views: 1995

Re: The Confounding Bias for Investment Complexity

Excellent post, thanks, matjen.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6415

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

Nisi, I believe that it is critical for investors to have a deep knowledge of themselves, what their true ability to tolerate risk is, and exactly where they can handle themselves without behavioral mistakes on the risk/reward tradeoff (selling at market bottoms, buying to tops). It sounds like you ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Motley Fun
Replies: 4
Views: 1093

Re: Motley Fun

Great post, ogrehead. Got a good laugh on a day when laughs are hard to come by in the market. When professional advice turns 180 degrees in 8 days that says a lot about its quality. Frenetic trading based on "expert advice" is likely to be hazardous to ones portfolio value. Reminds me of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting study on "dumb" indexes
Replies: 25
Views: 3077

Re: Interesting study on "dumb" indexes

nedsaid wrote: Larry, I guess the "Nedsaid effect" works with the Dow 30 as it has with my own portfolio. That is that the stocks that I sell tend to do better than the stocks I bought to replace them. This has also worked with mutual funds I have noted this same "Nedsaid effect"...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12416

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

sufnywindy wrote: Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates says he is at 30% EM and if the Shiller P/E goes below 5 or 6 he will go up to 50% EM. (Of course, he is really raking in the money right now, but it's still a big bet.) https://youtu.be/cU4S1CuG5hQ?t=2m42s Wow! A money manager willing to step out...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 17, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the market being down limit downside risk?
Replies: 56
Views: 3034

Re: Does the market being down limit downside risk?

At some point in a market decline the magnitude of the decline does limit downside risk. Historically, that point in 1928 - 1932 was 80% decline, so those who poured money in at declines of 20% or 30% or 40% or 50% or 60% or 70% still had short or intermediate term losses as the market tanked more a...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness's Alternative Funds Top Rivals With 17% Returns
Replies: 5
Views: 654

Re: Cliff Asness's Alternative Funds Top Rivals With 17% Returns

Last year was a great year to use as comparison for the AQR funds listed and performance chasers are pouring the money in. The market was basically flat last year, a lot of ups and downs, but in the end going essentially nowhere. In such times, considerable volatility but no consistent direction, lo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12416

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

I don't know when it will happen, whether it will be this year as grap0013 suggests, but I do believe that EM after years of substantial underperformance will have its day in the sun again. Most assets in the market goes through cycles over and over. Currently commodities, PME, Energy, and EM are sh...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why different equity risk premiums in different countries
Replies: 22
Views: 960

Re: Why different equity risk premiums in different countries

Interesting post. For what it's worth, here's my two cents. Japan has been in a deflationary environment for 3 decades plus, resistant to aggressive monetary policy, and it faces enormous future challenges with massive governmental debt, 230% GDP, much higher than US or Europe, and its aging demogra...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 8929

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

I think it's a good idea for those who are concerned about this scary prediction to read and re-read Larry's post today, STAYING CALM IN THE FACE OF A STORM, which offers excellent advice on how to respond to such predictions.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: staying calm in the face of a storm
Replies: 31
Views: 4775

Re: staying calm in the face of a storm

Excellent article, Larry, thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7304

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

garlandwhizzer wrote: A non-tilted portfolio never performs optimally but it does manage to pick a more comfortable middle ground, with both growth and value, large and small, which presumably offers a smoother ride through market cycles when one segment after another outperforms or underperforms. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is BNDX (total international bond) and its utilization in target date funds terrible?
Replies: 35
Views: 1743

Re: Is BNDX (total international bond) and its utilization in target date funds terrible?

rmelvey wrote: Right now we are in an environment where US yields are higher than international, so the benefits of hedging are larger. We are in a good environment for this kind of fund, which is why BNDX has outperformed BND. This is a valid point and currency hedging has improved the returns of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7304

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Robert T has a sophisticated factor investing approach and sticks with it through thick and thin. He is very likely to be rewarded in the very long term, however long that is. Most of us have a less sophisticated approach to factor investing and lack the patience to hold on for a decade or more of u...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is BNDX (total international bond) and its utilization in target date funds terrible?
Replies: 35
Views: 1743

Re: Is BNDX (total international bond) and its utilization in target date funds terrible?

I see no reason for US based investors to hold international bonds at this time. Just my opinion, but it seems to me that the major reason to hold bonds is safety and reliability and I consider the US to be the nicest house in a bad economic neighborhood (the rest of the world) at present. Not to me...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about individual stocks versus index fund?
Replies: 29
Views: 1233

Re: Question about individual stocks versus index fund?

qwe7791 wrote: Okay. So if it's more beneficial to buy total market index funds, why do some people insist on buying individual stocks instead? Is it because they want to beat the market? Yes, I believe it is because they intend to beat the market. Motive, however, does not automatically produce ou...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting high yield bond returns
Replies: 19
Views: 1265

Re: Predicting high yield bond returns

During the depths of the market collapse in 2008-9, Vanguard's HYB fund got so devastated in principal value that it was yielding more than 12%. At the same time Vanguard's Intermediate Treasury Fund and GNMA funds, perceived as a safe harbors, gained enough in principal value that their yields fell...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5079

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

I'll add my two cents worth here. Value tends to outperform growth when there is modest (2.5% - 3.5%) but not severe inflation and a robust but not overheated economy with solid consistent real economic growth. In other words favorable economic conditions for struggling small often highly indebted c...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 01, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Fund Returns
Replies: 16
Views: 2993

Re: Vanguard Fund Returns

grabiner wrote: Large-cap growth won this year. The only diversified US funds over 3% (Admiral shares used where available) are US Growth (+8.61%), Morgan Growth (+6.86%), and Growth Index (+3.30%). High Dividend Yield Index (+0.30%) is the only value fund with a gain, and every small-cap fund lost...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy Like Bogle: 7 Essential Lessons from Jack Bogle
Replies: 12
Views: 2688

Re: Buy Like Bogle: 7 Essential Lessons from Jack Bogle

Great post, Mel, thanks. I can never get enough of Bogle's simple and straightforward insights on investing which demonstrate not only deep knowledge and vast experience but also something much more rare, wisdom. In the arena of dispensing investment advice, he is a giant surrounded largely by dwarf...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 27, 2015 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Smart-Beta tilting just a marketing ploy?
Replies: 117
Views: 5549

Re: Is Smart-Beta tilting just a marketing ploy?

Factor investing would be a slam dunk for all of us if factors fully explained returns. They do not. Some cleverly chosen factor chosen portfolios that should produce substantial out-performnce by factor analysis alone actually wind up underperforming indexes for several reasons. First increased cos...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short interest high. A good thing?
Replies: 2
Views: 324

Re: Short interest high. A good thing?

Right, excessive pessimism as reflected by high levels of short positions is often a good sign. Like other signs, not totally reliable. Most estimates for S&P operating earnings (not GAAP) for 2015 are about $110/share of SPY, give or take a little. That suggests that the current PE of the S&...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 21, 2015 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns
Replies: 118
Views: 9521

Re: Part 2 of the perfect storm post, how to increase EXPECTED returns

Excellent post, Larry. I agree with all of your suggestions to be considered. In fact I did all of them in modest degree at the beginning of 2015. Still waiting patiently for my payoff which has not come, in fact just the opposite. I continue to believe, however, as firmly as one reasonably can abou...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perfect storm for investors
Replies: 90
Views: 11553

Re: A perfect storm for investors

I agree with Larry's statement of the problem and his suggestions for the only good levers to deal with it. Basically work longer, spend less, save and invest more, and don't expect too much in the way of returns. Not a happy tune, but likely a realistic one. As for shifting traditional asset alloca...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard / Schwab Security Issue
Replies: 19
Views: 2320

Re: Vanguard / Schwab Security Issue

It is the job of Vanguard to take care of the client investors who own it in a responsible way. I believe Vanguard does this very well and do not wish to add any more complex security than they already have. Enough is enough in my view as I tend sometimes to be a fat fingers in typing. It is the job...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 16, 2015 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the problem of recency
Replies: 6
Views: 876

Re: the problem of recency

Very good post, Larry. Thanks.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 15, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retire at 55 [Which funds to use between 55 and 59.5?]
Replies: 18
Views: 2359

Re: Retire at 55

I retired at 50 and have a few suggestions about how to manage this situation. First have a considerable sized personal non-tax deferred account made up of two components, tax efficient equity and cash. As for equity, TSM is incredibly tax efficient and throws off higher dividends than most high qua...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 13, 2015 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession on the Horizon - Sensationalist Noise or Actionable Information?
Replies: 36
Views: 3668

Re: Recession on the Horizon - Sensationalist Noise or Actionable Information?

nedsaid wrote: Hey Joe: Give you a little hint. Ever since I started my career in 1983, the next Great Depression and the next great stock market crash has always been just right around the corner. The news is always bad. 1+ So true. I've been in the investing in and studying the markets for almost...

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