Search found 1235 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 25
Views: 2304

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

nedsaid wrote: As much as I like and admire Larry Swedroe and Dr. Bill Bernstein, there might be something going on with real estate that they are completely missing. True, nedsaid, and here's another idea that is as close to ensuring bullet proof high returns as possible. I'll short REITs, you buy...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 76
Views: 8053

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

jebmke wrote: Only use real rates (~0 for bonds and 4% for equity). Me, too, for US returns. I expect INTL equity and EM equity to have higher returns going forward but still use 4% estimates for them because their returns, while higher on an expected basis, are less predictable and reliable than U...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs
Replies: 25
Views: 2304

Re: Revisiting Dr. Bernstein on REITs

InvestorNewb wrote: I feel sorry for the people who sold their REITs after that post, even though he did not suggest doing that. It goes to show that nobody can predict the future. I have to admit I was tempted to sell some of my REITs at the time, since Dr. Bernstein is a well respected author and...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?
Replies: 84
Views: 4279

Re: are the markets overvalued? Are Grantham/Hussman etal correct?

Good article, Larry, thanks for posting. It is important for investors to realize that US equities are not currently in a bubble. There is no reason to panic and step away from equity now, be it US or INTL. There is certainly more risk and volatility in equity than in bonds just as there always has ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2233

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

Simplegift wrote: IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 1776

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

Simplegift wrote: The original Fama-French paper on the value effect covered the high-inflation decades of the 60s, 70s and 80s (specifically, 1963-1990), and consequently showed a very robust value premium. Since then, inflation and interest rates have been in a long decline (chart below) — just t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 24, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8781

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Quark wrote:' As others have mentioned, you're ignoring productivity growth. If productivity growth is high enough, even at 1:1 everyone would be better off than they were at 1:3 with lower productivity. Over time, output per worker increases and that higher output can be used to support more peopl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 1776

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When after 23 years the difference in approaches is less than one quarter of one percent, there are several potential explanations. One to consider is that the result is purely by chance, that the value premium didn't exist in any meaningful way or that if it did, the funds did not capture it. The l...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual fund performance and fund size
Replies: 9
Views: 775

Re: Mutual fund performance and fund size

No surprises here. Successful funds attract more performance chasing dollars until the assets under management exceeds the available opportunities to create alpha. There is a great deal of group-think in professional money management. Many line up together and tout the same stocks or the same strate...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 21, 2016 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8781

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

From the Bureau of Labor statistics: Labor productivity measures the amount of goods and services produced by one hour of labor; specifically, labor productivity measures the amount of real gross domestic product (GDP) produced by an hour of labor. Real GDP/total hours of labor. Theres is some contr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8781

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

I agree with Bill Bernstein on this one. Thanks, Bill, for your input. There are real challenges ahead in financing retirement particularly in developed economies. One answer for individuals, as many posters have pointed out, is to save and invest more, reducing personal consumption in favor of inve...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2350

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Some good points have been made in this post about why CAPE PE 10 in isolation may not offer an apples to apples comparison between the US and INTL. Still the differences between CAPE for US versus INTL are quite striking not only at present but also, as Simplegift point out, by historical standards...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?
Replies: 28
Views: 2350

Re: Stock Valuations — Is the U.S. Market Now the Global Growth Index?

Great post, Simplegift, as usual. My understanding is that CAPE PE 10's ability to predict future returns in poor in the short term (1 -3 years) and poor in the very long term (3 decades). I believe its predictive value maximizes at about 10 years where it has an accuracy of about 40% according to a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49697

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: Thanks for a very comprehensive response. Your thinking and mine are pretty similar although I'm a little lighter on international. Right now I'm at 42/54/4 (42 rather than 40 because of recent up market.) I decided recently to move to 45 equity but not until things drop back a bit...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49697

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

friar1610 wrote: I'd be interested in knowing what AA you'd recommend going forward if one wanted to keep it relatively conservative, track inflation and (maybe a bit more) but take no exhorbitant risk on the equity side. Figure a need for 25 years or so with a 3-ish% withdrawal rate. Also figure t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 1289

Re: "Saving a Company, Building a Colossus, Preserving a Culture" by Jack Bogle

Thanks, Taylor, for the post. Bogle is my favorite hero in the financial arena which has numerous self-serving participants but few heroes. I always learn from what he has to say. I did not realize what a struggle his long quest has been, how close to complete failure so many times. He is brilliant ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49697

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

grap0013 wrote: A 30:70 mix of global cap weighted stocks with treasuries lost less than 3% in 2008. Talk about sleeping well at night. I know total bond is yielding something like double that of 5 year treasuries right now but one should not buy treasuries for the yield. Let the portfolio growth c...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 13, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?
Replies: 14
Views: 2022

Re: Any thoughts on REIT run up so far?

In my view REITS are overvalued now and have been overvalued for long time. I have refused to buy them for several years for this reason and I've stood on the sidelines and watched as they continued to climb in value, getting more and more overvalued. I don't know when their great run will stop. I s...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Diversification sanity check

Epsilon Delta wrote in response to my post: I disagree with this. It's entirely possible that the EM become more like DM and their market cap approaches their share of the world economy and the current shares are not a bargain. EM market cap could grow by issuing more shares. EM markets becoming mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?
Replies: 29
Views: 3665

Re: Wade Pfau: What Is The Sustainable Spending Rate For Retirees In 2016?

Kevin K wrote: Bottom line for me anyway: expenses matter more than ever in this low-return environment and flexibility in SWRs during retirement is vital. 1+ I believe much of Wade Pfau's commentaries have as their chief purpose feathering his own bed, a very common practice in the financial indus...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification sanity check
Replies: 20
Views: 1531

Re: Diversification sanity check

nisi wrote: Emerging market capitalization is maybe 1/8th to 1/6th of global (numbers vary because authorities do not agree on which countries should be considered "emerging markets." But they will make the point that emerging market economies are a much bigger part of the world economy t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6562

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Karamatsu wrote: What sort of structural labor reforms? Also it's worth noting that very few Japanese individuals buy JGBs. The bonds are mostly held by institutions, all of which are now net sellers. The only net buyers of JGBs these days are the Bank of Japan (obviously) and foreigners. The vast ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs
Replies: 32
Views: 4673

Re: This time it *IS* different - Treasury yields at all time lows, S&P near all time highs

Bonds have historically low yields. That means per unit of yield, they're more expensive than ever in history. Stocks are near all time highs and have elevated PE 1 and PE 10. That means they're expensive too, but less so than bonds by historical measures. Everything is expensive which means the sup...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE
Replies: 5
Views: 434

Re: How Well would you do if you bought/sold Robert Shiller CAPE

I don't think you can look at CAPE PE 10 levels in isolation as the only guideline in terms of selling stocks when CAPE values are higher than historical norms and moving into bonds. Larry and others have made the point that changes in accounting practices produce some distortion in today's CAPE val...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?
Replies: 36
Views: 3353

Re: Actionable Advice: What to do if Japan happens here?

The probability that the US will go into a replay of Japan from 1989 to now is not sufficient in my opinion as to warrant spending a lot of thought or energy about how to position your assets in advance of such an event. Japan's decline started from the greatest property/stock bubble in history, far...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 07, 2016 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world
Replies: 29
Views: 1591

Monetary policy is (barely) carrying the world

Vanguard's web site article suggests low rates and low growth are secular not cyclical. Monetary policy has reached its limits worldwide. Unless aggressive fiscal policy steps up to the plate we may be stuck in the "new normal" for quite some time. Comments?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 06, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium
Replies: 8
Views: 848

Re: Mispricing contributes to the Value Premium

Exploitable after cost? I think that's the big question regarding factor strategies and this article concentrates on that point. Some believe that targeting extreme levels of small and extreme levels of value is the optimal approach to harvest the SCV premium. It makes intuitive sense. RZV, Guggenhe...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 05, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6562

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

From The Economist Sept. 27, 2014: Corporate saving has risen across the rich world in recent years. Bosses have felt a greater need to protect themselves against financial turmoil. There have also been fewer opportunities for investment in ageing economies. But East Asia is an extreme case. Japane...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 05, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively Managed Small-Cap International Funds Beating the Indexes
Replies: 12
Views: 1408

Re: Actively Managed Small-Cap International Funds Beating the Indexes

There are always funds in any category that outperform their respective indexes, sometime impressively so. Anytime there is a large number of funds in any category there will always be a few big winners and a few big losers particularly over short time frames (3 years of less). The important questio...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intermediate bonds are best
Replies: 7
Views: 1848

Re: Intermediate bonds are best

kolea wrote: For a buy-and-hold investor, certainly one that holds bonds to maturity, it seems that charts that show annual TR data are not really accurate. Or am I missing something? During the period in question, 1955 to 1985, there was ever increasing inflation and bond yields which peaked in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6562

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

rgs92 wrote: Of course, this could be "The Death of Equities" headline for Japan, and we all know what happened after that common wisdom... I hope you're right, rgs92, but "The Death of Equities" headline was written when the US suffered runaway inflation. Inflation can be contr...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium
Replies: 21
Views: 2012

Re: Classic Bernstein 12 — The Societal Risk Premium

Simplegift wrote: What lessons do Mr. Bernstein’s observations hold for investors today? a) Investment returns reflect the inherent stability of a society. One of the prices we pay for our advanced standard-of-living is lower expected asset returns. b) The low stock prices that produce high future ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 15
Views: 1951

Re: Sin as investment strategy

It appears that in aggregate investors hold a certain stigma for sin stocks. That unpopularity in turn drives their improved fundamentals and, hence, their improved performance. I doubt that this is solely due to socially responsible investing etfs because sin stock outperformance existed before suc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6562

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Japan's nominal GDP expressed in the local currency (Yen) is currently about 10% less than it was in 1998, 18 years ago. That's right, negative GDP growth for 18 years. They do have some great companies but they also have a lot of inefficient companies for a number of reasons. During that same time ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 30, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffett got this wrong
Replies: 87
Views: 4898

Re: I think Buffett got this wrong

With an investing career is as long, as consistently successful, and as distinguished as Buffett's, one should be circumspect about declaring that he is wrong, especially if one does not have a similar pedigree. No one is perfect but Warren's record over decades speaks for itself. Success eventually...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the deal with Japan?
Replies: 62
Views: 6562

Re: What's the deal with Japan?

Lots of problems. Just to name a few: Popping of largest economic bubble in modern history for stocks and real estate, world's worst demographic nightmare, world's highest governmental debt to GDP ratio, structural/cultural labor market rigidity, low corporate return on equity, economy's greater vul...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 28, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brexit, Buy & Hold, & Investor Shaky Confidence
Replies: 23
Views: 2643

Re: Brexit, Buy & Hold, & Investor Shaky Confidence

It hard to make a strong case for rebalancing into US stocks after a 3% - 4% drop when their post-decline PE1 is 23.5 and their PE10 is 25.3. The US market has to drop a lot more in my opinion before it is worthy of rushing into US stocks. I do not believe that the US market is going to take off lik...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 26, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BREXIT - Whats the big deal?
Replies: 108
Views: 10480

Re: BREXIT - Whats the big deal?

Simplegift wrote: Increased nationalism and trade protectionism (i.e., de-globalization) is bound to slow world economic growth even further — which will eventually affect all countries and stock markets, including the United States. Just my two cents. 1+ This is the real long term threat after all...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical analysis
Replies: 6
Views: 719

Technical analysis

Headline article on Marketwatch website from yesterday before the Brexit vote was counted: ‘Bollinger Bands’ suggest the stock market is ready to break out in a big way Well, on the positive side, it did break out in a big way. Only problem is that it went in the opposite direction of what this tech...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks in free fall
Replies: 118
Views: 10482

Re: International stocks in free fall

I am neither buying nor selling, staying put. I have a large INTL allocation which is getting killed today but I'll hold onto it. It will take several years for the dust to settle from this event. New trade deals between Britain and EU have to be negotiated and then there is a real possibility that ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 48
Views: 4576

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

jjface wrote in response to my point that Buffett didn't tilt to small or to value in his wife's portfolio: That argument makes no sense. You can turn that around and say why doesn't he put all his money in the S&P 500 and 10% short term treasuries just as easily. He obviously chose this for hi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 48
Views: 4576

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

It is important to remember that the most famous value investor alive today, perhaps the most famous investor alive today, chose for his wife's personal investment portfolio 90% S&P 500, 10% Short Term Treasuries. No value tilt, no small cap at all. He indicates that he feels this portfolio will...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing
Replies: 9
Views: 885

Re: New AQR/Asness Paper on Factor Timing

Simplegift wrote: In short, how much of this work is a quest for truth, and how much is a quest for increased assets-under-management? 1+ This is an important question. Many robust salaries are created by financial/investment research and the products they spawn. I don't believe that because Arnott...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios
Replies: 138
Views: 17960

Re: Pfau: Why Bond Funds Don't Belong in Retirement Portfolios

Joe Tomlinson authored the article about the safety of annuities. He was previously Vice President in charge of annuities at John Hancock. I do not know whether or not the fact that he has benefited from annuity sales has colors his vision about their long term safety. His article seems to be fair b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5102

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Great post, Simplegift, as usual. I find it somewhat reassuring and at times like this reassurance is nice. Dividends put money directly in the pockets of investors. Buybacks work by reducing share number and therefore (as long as profits are constant) having a positive effect on PE ratios and tendi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 18, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Vs Stock Market
Replies: 22
Views: 2011

Re: Real Estate Vs Stock Market

Bam! wrote: My point, however, was that even with this awful deal at risk of being cash flow negative, you'd still beat a 8% compounding stock market investment because of RE leverage. Sure there are additional costs, such as taxes, maintenance, management. But the benefits of leverage far outweigh...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 17, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8297

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

in response to my post, dkturner wrote: Your information on bond returns in Graham's day is incorrect. From 1929 to 1972 the inflation adjusted (real) total return on 10 year Treasuries was only 6/10 of 1% per year. Real equity returns were 6.1% per year. From 1973 to 2015 the 10 year Treasury retu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 17, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people buy annuities?
Replies: 125
Views: 16062

Re: Why do people buy annuities?

Annuities achieve exactly what they are designed to do: to provide a sense of security for the those who buy them and, importantly, to provide considerable profits for those who design, market, and sell them. On the buy side, it's a question of how much are you willing to pay for a certain level of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8297

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

nisi wrote: I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. There is a wide gulf in what bonds were yielding in Ben Graham's time and now. Back then, intermediate term quality bonds provided both significant real inflation adjusted positive yields plus ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 14, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Market Expected Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2090

Re: Future Market Expected Returns

NMJack makes some good points: Energy is cheap and plentiful. There is a seemingly endless source of cheap immigrant labor. Inflation is zero. The cost of money is zero. Commodities are cheap and plentiful. Growing populations around the world are demanding more goods and services. The cold war is o...

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