Search found 199 matches

by freyj6
Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 4129

Re: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

1. How confident are you in your ability to identify a market 'bottom'? ^^^ This +1. Also, judging from watching people try to do this kind of thing in real time on the forums, they often neglect to buy during big dips (late 2011, early 2016, etc) and end up just holding on to their cash. Second, s...
by freyj6
Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6677

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

Awesome. I love Bill Berstein... wish he'd write some more books :)
by freyj6
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9897

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I don't think a large adjustment like this ever makes sense. Going from 60/40 or whatever to 30/70 when CAPE hits 30 is like garaging your car when gas is over $3 but driving 20 miles a day when it's $2.90. I do somewhat agree with the general sentiment though. Personally I've made some adjustments ...
by freyj6
Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?
Replies: 59
Views: 4286

Re: Why bonds when one's investment horizon is long?

I agree it makes little sense to hold lower than 100% if your time horizon if very long, your risk tolerance is high and you plan to be 100% passive. My personal opinion is that it does make sense to slowly change allocations based on valuations. The ratio of risk to return changes dramatically when...
by freyj6
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront: Factor based "Advanced Indexing"
Replies: 1
Views: 526

Re: Wealthfront: Factor based "Advanced Indexing"

It's starting to feel more and more like Wealthfront is just creating their own mutual fund.

How is this different from just investing in a multifactor fund?
by freyj6
Tue Jun 13, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what order should I read these books?
Replies: 38
Views: 4208

Re: In what order should I read these books?

Personally I've found William Bernstein's books to be by far the most interesting, readable and useful, at least until you get into really esoteric territory. If you've already read the Wiki, you probably don't need to spend too much time on the really basic stuff. I'd read 4 Pillars of Investing, t...
by freyj6
Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are cap weighted indexes superior to float adjusted methodology
Replies: 7
Views: 751

Re: Are cap weighted indexes superior to float adjusted methodology

I've been reading the book Successful Investing is a Process which talks a lot about volatility and returns as a result of index structure. It's quite a rigorous book and comes to the conclusions that 1) cap weighted investing is a poor way to index 2) other methods like equal weight, fundamental, e...
by freyj6
Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index construction and "passive" investing
Replies: 8
Views: 821

Index construction and "passive" investing

One really interesting concept I've come across lately is that the idea of index investing being "passive" is a bit of a fallacy. While tracking an index is mostly a passive process, constructing and updating indexes definitely is not. For example: -The S&P 500 index isn't just a list ...
by freyj6
Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab .03% SP500
Replies: 31
Views: 2267

Re: Schwab .03% SP500

A few things: 1. Most importantly, as others have said, fee differences this low don't matter. We've all had it drilled into our heads that fees matter a lot and are the biggest drag on returns. That's definitely true when you're talking about the difference between a 2% fee and a 0.25% fee, but a d...
by freyj6
Fri Jun 02, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people make 10 year return predictions?
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Re: Why do people make 10 year return predictions?

My take is that setting realistic expectations and trying to predict unpredictable things are totally different beasts. It's quite helpful to know that US CAPE is around 30 and we're on the tail end of the second longest bull market in recent history. That suggests lowering return expectations and f...
by freyj6
Fri Jun 02, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people make 10 year return predictions?
Replies: 23
Views: 1862

Why do people make 10 year return predictions?

People often says it's near impossible to make predictions in the short term, but relatively straightforward in the long run based on valuations. I get the sentiment: high current valuations usually lead to smaller 10 year returns and vice versa. However, we have absolutely no idea what valuations w...
by freyj6
Mon May 29, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1400
Views: 247072

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

About 9.5% and I'm down to 65/35 right now.

Pretty happy with how things are going so far :)
by freyj6
Thu May 11, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 19326

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I agree it's super important to be financially responsible, but it all depends on what you're giving up to save. If you're putting off what you really want to do with your life, forgoing the things that are really important to you or grinding away at a job you hate, it's never worth it. On the flip ...
by freyj6
Mon May 01, 2017 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 170
Views: 31838

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Have been implementing the GEM strategy for 1,5Y with 4 inflows at different times: Results: +6,70% as of 05/01/2017 (underperformance vs SPX due to both whipsaws and inflows at #times) Issues/risks with this strategy: -When you enter the strategy (can lower the returns) -Whipsaws To avoid whipsaws...
by freyj6
Wed Apr 26, 2017 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking in real vs. nominal
Replies: 46
Views: 3462

Re: Thinking in real vs. nominal

I don't find inflation numbers to be particularly useful. Inflation isn't something that just decreases everyone's spending power by a few % a year, it's completely individual based on what you spend your money on. Inflation might go up 3%, but your rent goes up 10%. Or gas prices might drop 20%. I ...
by freyj6
Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 39434

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Thanks for everything Larry!
by freyj6
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 2118

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

Contrary to most bogleheads, I think it's worth making some small adjustments. But the key word there is definitely "small". It may seem strange now, but lots of people thought the US market was overvalued and we were due for a crash in 2013. Since then it's almost doubled. The people who ...
by freyj6
Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Four Pillars of Investing" is one of today's Kindle daily deals
Replies: 24
Views: 4150

Re: "The Four Pillars of Investing" is one of today's Kindle daily deals

Great book. William Bernstein is my favorite investing author... wish he'd continue to write :)
by freyj6
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8968

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Hey Larry,

This is some really interesting stuff, especially considering that interest rates are low and US stock prices are so high.

Is it possible to invest in LENDX or SRRIX directly through a Roth IRA, or does one need a broker/adviser?

Thanks!
by freyj6
Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

"The amount of the credit is 50%, 20% or 10% of your retirement plan or IRA contributions up to $2,000 ($4,000 if married filing jointly), depending on your adjusted gross income" E.g. 10%*$2,000 =$200 Oh, got it. I thought the $2000 was the maximum that could be received as a % of contri...
by freyj6
Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

I'm not sure I follow.

The link says 0% credit for single, non-head-of-household filers with AGIs above $31,000. It looks like my AGI will be higher than that.

What am I missing?

Thanks!
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enrolling in New Employer 401K
Replies: 2
Views: 199

Re: Enrolling in New Employer 401K

Well, you've got access to some good funds so that's great. I'm not too familiar with the non-Vanguard funds, but definitely stay out of anything with a high expense ratio (say, 0.50% or higher). That being said, I'd do one of two things if I were you. 1) Keep everything simple, put it all in a targ...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

Consider: Retirement Savings Contributions Credit https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-savings-contributions-savers-credit Also, think about whether you should be doing Trad or Roth (or a mix). Roth may be right, but you shouldn't jump to that conclusion without...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why nobody talk about cash allocation ?
Replies: 17
Views: 2225

Re: Why nobody talk about cash allocation ?

I don't really see how the amount of cash you hold has anything to do with the amount of funds you have saved. That is because the very reason for holding cash (in most cases) is to satisfy a need such as to tide you over if you lose your job or in retirement to last a certain number of years in a ...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

@B42 - No state tax. They apparently have a good health plan with several options but I'm not sure how it works yet. @shang - Didn't know that.... that's quite a bit! @everyone else - So even if the HSA contribution helps out here, I'm still looking at a couple thousand toward medicare and SS and th...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1573

Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

A little background: I'm 28, been maxing my Roth IRA for 5 years + rolled over my 401k at a 10% tax rate the year I quit my job. No other accounts besides the Roth. I'll be starting a new job soon and expect to make around 60k. I plan to: 1) Max my 401(k) contributions (18k) 2) Max my Roth IRA contr...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 683

Re: Short Term Bond Funds

+1 to venkman above. Holding short term bonds is a bit of a gamble if you might take the money out very soon, but you're unlikely to lose or gain more than 2-3% in the short term, so you might as well. I'll list the ETF versions since I don't remember the names of the mutual funds: VTIP and VGSH are...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1,124,176 Car.
Replies: 99
Views: 9389

Re: The $1,124,176 Car.

I get less than $500,000 after 40 years with 7% real return. With stock valuations being somewhat high, 7% real might be pushing it even for 100% stocks. For a 3-fund portfolio like you recommend, you might only get 4-5% real, which could put you as low as $130,000 after 40 years. Not exactly what I...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 7383

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I have a big EM holding, which I've obviously been really happy with for the last year or so. I do find myself questioning it more though lately. On one hand, long periods of underperformance are what cause investors to shy away, therefore creating big opportunities. On the other hand though, we've ...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3578

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

So what holding period would you say relates to a good time to invest? Depends on your goals. If I thought I was likely to lose money over the next 19 years, my stock allocation would be lower than it is. I understand your sentiment, but we're a ways off from a CAPE of 40. Also, keep in mind that w...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 18872

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

I've never understood people going 100% cash and waiting. I'm not quite on board with the people who say "it's always a good time! Go 100% in today!" but I've never been so sure of where we are in the cycle that I'd pull everything out. IMO, if you're the kind of person who would do some a...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3578

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you hold the equities long enough, the "bad time to invest" is largely overwhelmed by the long-term gains that the market has always produced. And if ...
by freyj6
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3578

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

Investing will always look good when you end the period well into a bull market. While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you had invested at market top in Japan in the late 80s, you'd have quickly lost...
by freyj6
Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Consumer Staples Index VCSAX
Replies: 3
Views: 646

Re: Vanguard Consumer Staples Index VCSAX

I'm a fan. It got a little too pricey for me when everyone seemed to be chasing dividends last summer so I sold my 15% allocation then. I think it's a great fund though. The downside is that it's even more expensive than the rest of the US market right now; the upside is that it's way less volatile ...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 6583

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

I'd probably DCA into progressively more value-y funds as the market dropped more. For instance, if I was 50/50 when the crash started and stocks dropped 40% and bonds increased 10%, I'd rebalance on the way down, then start averaging into VOO or something. If the market continued to drop to 50, 60 ...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and the risk of crashes
Replies: 18
Views: 2237

Re: Momentum and the risk of crashes

Larry what's your take on the AQR momentum funds? I remember you saying that you held one or two of them, and that you recommend them (I may be remembering wrong). Yet... http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,VB,VEA,AMOMX,AIMOX,ASMOX Over the past 8 years, they've all underperformed the reg...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we wait before buying in?
Replies: 52
Views: 5266

Re: Should we wait before buying in?

Having tried to time my way back in and fail miserably. For emotional reasons only, I would probably move a percentage back in (maybe 50%) and then DCA the rest back in. +1 It's a bit of a gamble either way, but you're going to feel really bad if you put in 100% right now and the market drops 30% i...
by freyj6
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23018

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

https://s9.postimg.org/d1f2le527/cheese_correlation.png lol! Cheese consumption aside: two more points. 1. I absolutely don't understand people trying to make % return predictions, even if it's 10 years out. There's absolutely no way ensure being remotely close. First, say cape/pe/pb/whatever is a ...
by freyj6
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 23018

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I certainly have no idea what the market will do, but I have to admit the current rally has made me more cautious. I've basically been 100% stocks since 2013. Until very recently, I had about 15% VBR and 15% VOE allocation. Over the past month, I've slowly overbalanced completely out of VBR and into...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 79
Views: 14769

Re: The case against small cap value

Hmm, I remember looking on portfolio visualizer a while ago and finding that mid cap value outperformed small cap value overall, and in most 5 year periods, but when I look now the results seem to have changed. Maybe they changed something? But yeah, I'm also a big fan of mid cap value. I do a 50/50...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1.3 million dollars in debt
Replies: 36
Views: 8762

Re: 1.3 million dollars in debt

Like a few others have said, I'd focus on paying off debt and ignore everything else for now. Keep it simple for now.

When you start investing, go with a safe portfolio like 25% Total US, 25% Total International and 50% short term bonds.
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 213
Views: 26800

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

"Start with the S&P 500: Here's one that really surprised me: Of these 61 periods, small-cap value stocks beat the S&P 500 60 times. If that's not consistency, I don't know what would qualify." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-one-asset-class-every-investor-needs-2014-06-25 In...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 2245

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

Yes mine is/has been quite similar to that.

Much to the dismay of the bogleheads, however, I've been selling a bit of small cap value recently.
by freyj6
Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4346

Re: Stock market optimism

I think it will be quite a while before we see the mad optimism of the late 90s again. The last two crashes are still too recent in memory and people seem to be cautious about the future. I think the caution will keep us out of that real "bubble" territory for a bit, but I wouldn't be surp...
by freyj6
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sectors and bubbles
Replies: 11
Views: 858

Re: Sectors and bubbles

I think there's some merit to it and I occasionally do a bit of adjusting here and there myself.

That being said, like others have mentioned, a) you're more likely to lose money than make extra money and b) a 1% fee outweighs any outperformance you might hope to achieve.

I'd say stick to your guns.
by freyj6
Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2549

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

Personally I think consumer staples (VDC) is a really interesting fund. I held it for a year or so from July or August 2015 to mid-July 2016 and was obviously very happy with it. I had planned to hold it as a long-term investment (10-15% of portfolio) but there was so much buzz around VDC, VPU, VNQ ...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging
Replies: 29
Views: 2990

Re: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging

As others have said, more time in the market usually wins out.

It might, however, occasionally be prudent to alter your strategy based on market conditions.

If, for example, P/E ratios were 35 or 40, perhaps you'd funnel your money into bonds until equities reached more sane valuations.
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 1673

Re: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement

Bond duration is all about mitigating inflation and interest rate risk. All you really need to think about in that regard is how much risk you want to take. If you have 75 years of living expenses though, virtually nothing will pose a problem for you. You could easily hold a high equity allocation a...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1320

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

The trouble is knowing when the dips and the peaks are. Perhaps, like some people, you thought the market was high in 2012 and went to 60/40. The market is now 50% higher. I do think it's worth doing this kind of thing when extreme valuations are reached. I'd gradually lower my stock allocation as p...

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