Search found 162 matches

by freyj6
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we wait before buying in?
Replies: 52
Views: 4647

Re: Should we wait before buying in?

Having tried to time my way back in and fail miserably. For emotional reasons only, I would probably move a percentage back in (maybe 50%) and then DCA the rest back in. +1 It's a bit of a gamble either way, but you're going to feel really bad if you put in 100% right now and the market drops 30% i...
by freyj6
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 274
Views: 16353

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

https://s9.postimg.org/d1f2le527/cheese_correlation.png lol! Cheese consumption aside: two more points. 1. I absolutely don't understand people trying to make % return predictions, even if it's 10 years out. There's absolutely no way ensure being remotely close. First, say cape/pe/pb/whatever is a ...
by freyj6
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 274
Views: 16353

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I certainly have no idea what the market will do, but I have to admit the current rally has made me more cautious. I've basically been 100% stocks since 2013. Until very recently, I had about 15% VBR and 15% VOE allocation. Over the past month, I've slowly overbalanced completely out of VBR and into...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 79
Views: 13780

Re: The case against small cap value

Hmm, I remember looking on portfolio visualizer a while ago and finding that mid cap value outperformed small cap value overall, and in most 5 year periods, but when I look now the results seem to have changed. Maybe they changed something? But yeah, I'm also a big fan of mid cap value. I do a 50/50...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1.3 million dollars in debt
Replies: 36
Views: 8206

Re: 1.3 million dollars in debt

Like a few others have said, I'd focus on paying off debt and ignore everything else for now. Keep it simple for now.

When you start investing, go with a safe portfolio like 25% Total US, 25% Total International and 50% short term bonds.
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 213
Views: 22810

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

"Start with the S&P 500: Here's one that really surprised me: Of these 61 periods, small-cap value stocks beat the S&P 500 60 times. If that's not consistency, I don't know what would qualify." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-one-asset-class-every-investor-needs-2014-06-25 In...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 1905

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

Yes mine is/has been quite similar to that.

Much to the dismay of the bogleheads, however, I've been selling a bit of small cap value recently.
by freyj6
Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 3948

Re: Stock market optimism

I think it will be quite a while before we see the mad optimism of the late 90s again. The last two crashes are still too recent in memory and people seem to be cautious about the future. I think the caution will keep us out of that real "bubble" territory for a bit, but I wouldn't be surp...
by freyj6
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sectors and bubbles
Replies: 11
Views: 718

Re: Sectors and bubbles

I think there's some merit to it and I occasionally do a bit of adjusting here and there myself.

That being said, like others have mentioned, a) you're more likely to lose money than make extra money and b) a 1% fee outweighs any outperformance you might hope to achieve.

I'd say stick to your guns.
by freyj6
Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2222

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

Personally I think consumer staples (VDC) is a really interesting fund. I held it for a year or so from July or August 2015 to mid-July 2016 and was obviously very happy with it. I had planned to hold it as a long-term investment (10-15% of portfolio) but there was so much buzz around VDC, VPU, VNQ ...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging
Replies: 29
Views: 2742

Re: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging

As others have said, more time in the market usually wins out.

It might, however, occasionally be prudent to alter your strategy based on market conditions.

If, for example, P/E ratios were 35 or 40, perhaps you'd funnel your money into bonds until equities reached more sane valuations.
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 1539

Re: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement

Bond duration is all about mitigating inflation and interest rate risk. All you really need to think about in that regard is how much risk you want to take. If you have 75 years of living expenses though, virtually nothing will pose a problem for you. You could easily hold a high equity allocation a...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1259

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

The trouble is knowing when the dips and the peaks are. Perhaps, like some people, you thought the market was high in 2012 and went to 60/40. The market is now 50% higher. I do think it's worth doing this kind of thing when extreme valuations are reached. I'd gradually lower my stock allocation as p...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4101

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

Understand though that this introduces a new type of risk: risk of ruin. That type of risk is not present in an unleveraged portfolio. This risk diminished as the portfolio value increases however, so were ruin to occur, it would most likely occur prior to the goal notional valuation when the portf...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund liquidity (VFICX, VBIIX, BIV, or VICSX)
Replies: 2
Views: 671

Re: Bond fund liquidity (VFICX, VBIIX, BIV, or VICSX)

If liquidity is your concern, splitting up the funds into components makes little sense, imo.

Vanguard Total Bond is one of the most liquid bond funds out there. Individual components may be less liquid.

I doubt that any bond funds with many billions in assets will have liquidity problems.
by freyj6
Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4101

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

The argument generally made against holding 100% stocks when you're young is that it's psychologically challenging and a fair number of people are likely to lose a lot of money selling at bottom. Psychology aside, there is little reason to believe that bonds will outperform stocks over the next 20 o...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2742

Re: Knowing what you know now...

I'm still young (28), but I'll offer my perspective. First, the extent to which frugality and living an exciting life are painted as mutually exclusive is misguided to say the least. To illustrate with a personal example, last year I quit my job and travelled all over the US and South America for 7 ...
by freyj6
Sat Aug 13, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 817

Re: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

It's really difficult to judge bond funds without understanding what the real duration is.

If I were to hold, say, total BND instead of intermediate treasuries, I'd need to know what the 20% MBS really is.
by freyj6
Sat Aug 13, 2016 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 817

Re: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

Cool, thanks.

Is there any way to roughly estimate convexity when it's not listed?
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 817

Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

As I understand it, certain bonds (or bond funds) tend to move towards longer or shorter duration in the face of changing interest rates or inflation. Mortgage-backed securities, for example, extend in effective duration when interest rates rise, whereas I've read that treasuries may have a slight n...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk..Total Bond vs IT Treasury
Replies: 5
Views: 788

Re: Bond Risk..Total Bond vs IT Treasury

Sharp ratios can be misleading. What's important with bonds is WHEN they're volatile, and in which direction. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,FIBAX,FTBFX Check out this chart, stretch out the timeline, and look at late 2008, early 2009, the smaller crashes in 2010 and late 2011, and t...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 14732

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

. :) Vanguard's short-term gov is shorter than short-term corp and short-term bond so it doesn't quite make for a fair comparison. 1-3-yr yields quite low, plus you don't get much of a flight to quality effect. True. And it's surprisingly difficult to find a government bond fund with a ~2.8 year av...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 119
Views: 17540

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

In terms of general Boglehead philosophy, we seem to take the following things to be truths: - Some risk is shed by diversifying. - Keeping costs low is vital. - Hold market weights as one does not know more than anyone else. - Stay the course. If we take these to be truths, then it is philosophica...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 14732

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Good article. I agree it's difficult to find a place for corporate bonds funds that makes sense. As mentioned by, Swedroe, Bernstein and Swensen, a couple of the major drawbacks seem to be: -Generally poor correlation during major bear markets and sudden crashes (for this reason, higher yield isn't ...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 2989

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

So I am starting to draw near to early retirement, thanks in large part to the ideas espoused on this board (index funds, stay the course, live below your means, etc) and the help of many folks on this board over the years. One piece of advice I have never really heeded, though. Any time I posted o...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3975

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

Valuations aren't high enough to be worrisome by themselves, IMO. I'm not opposed to making AA adjustments based on valuations, but I think the key is to make them small and wait for more extreme valuations. I might, for example, reduce stock allocation by 10% if CAPE hit 30 and another 5-10% for ea...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1949

Re: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio

Some other thoughts: -If it's a taxable account, Wealthfront or Betterment may we worth considering simply for the tax loss harvesting. -REITs are generally a bad idea in a taxable account. They are very tax-inefficient. -You may want to open a Roth IRA and begin siphoning $5500 per year in from you...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 119
Views: 17540

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I find this to be a strange exception to the boglehead philosophy. If there answer is simply as it is with market timing: "I don't know", then there are two allocations that makes sense: 1) equal weight and 2) cap weight. Overweighting or underweighting either is making a bet. Personally I...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1949

Re: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio

Looks like a pretty solid Boglehead-approved portfolio to me. A few thoughts: 1) As I'm sure you've heard 100x by now, you need to be very aware of your risk tolerance. How certain are you that, when the market drops 50%+, that you won't be tempted to pull out? 2) Does your attraction to REITs have ...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zero ER ?
Replies: 25
Views: 2607

Re: Zero ER ?

Apparently the funds make some money from lending securities. I don't really understand how it works, but it appears that ERs of 0 are quite possible and potentially profitable. To be honest though, I have no trouble paying 10 or 15 basis points. A 3 fund portfolio would have an expense ratio of lik...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global value funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 2407

Re: Thoughts on this Global value fund?

Cambria global value is worth considering. The ticker is GVAL. I'm considering buying it myself, about 20k worth. First I need to decide what I think about Meb Faber. I feel similarly. If Vanguard had a really deep value fund, I'd be all over it, but watching all Meb's other ETFs underperform begs ...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?
Replies: 49
Views: 3203

Re: What is the purpose of a Long/Short Equity Fund fund like AQR QLERX?

Not to digress too much, but can someone explain the appeal of AQR's momentum funds? All their momentum funds are underperforming their respective market, and, although factors clearly have long periods of underperformance, a prolonged bull market probably shouldn't be one of them for momentum. Fund...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: Trend following and bonds

Thanks, I'm aware of all that.

I think there's a distinction, however, between trying to optimize in a data-fitting way and a way that takes into account historically low duration-risk premiums. At this point I think I'll just do it with a combination of BSV, VCSH and BND.
by freyj6
Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: Trend following and bonds

As I understand it you are looking for safety once a trend following scheme takes you out of stocks. That would seem to indicate a possible bad economic environment ahead. I assume you mean a trend scheme which is fairly slow to take you out with perhaps fewer whipsaws. Trend following is not predi...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: Trend following and bonds

One thing I was hoping is that someone could shed some light on how risks like inflation and rising interest rates change during deep bear markets. Are there plausible situations in which stocks could be down 50% (perhaps you'd gotten out at -10%) and a fund like BND gets ravaged by hyperinflation ...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 04, 2016 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Re: Trend following and bonds

Cool thanks. I've been leaning towards doing this with a small part of my portfolio. Although bond yields are incredibly low, there still seems little reason to hold cash vs a very safe bonds fund like BSV. The VCSH fund seems promising as well, since the return is quite a bit better but risk is sti...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend following and bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1062

Trend following and bonds

When using trend following approaches (such as Faber's or Antonacci's), bonds are often held in place of cash when the signals indicate to exit the market. Antonacci suggests AGG in his book, which is very similar to Vanguard's total bond or the BND etf. Faber doesn't always specify, but suggests in...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 19087

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Coachz, it depends on the sequence of returns.

If you had a stead 1% a year all the way through, or bigger gains in the first half of retirement, you could easily fund a retirement like that.

However, if you had negative returns early and positive returns late, you'd likely run out of money.
by freyj6
Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 19087

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

This is more or less what hit me really hard when reading Tony Robbins' book last year. He shows how a risk parity portfolio with 40% long bonds, 15% shorter bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities and 30% stocks (I think) did really great... in retrospect. Now that bond yields are virtually at all time ...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crude Oil Prices and VGENX Vanguard Energy
Replies: 4
Views: 452

Re: Crude Oil Prices and VGENX Vanguard Energy

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=181852

There's some good info here (look at the more recent posts).
by freyj6
Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking to the Future: Lo - Merton - Ross - Seigel
Replies: 4
Views: 620

Re: Looking to the Future

Interesting. To paraphrase two interesting tidbits: -Expected returns are slightly lower than average, but the equity premium seems to be higher than normal because fixed income returns are so poor right now. -Bailing out of stocks when the market tanks isn't really what hurts investors portfolios s...
by freyj6
Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 58
Views: 8976

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]

When something seems low, there are always good reasons why it "should" be low.

Prospects looked bad in January/February, then it shot up 30-40% depending on when you bought. Personally I was waiting for $70 on VDE and missed it by 0.15. Things never look good when prices are cheap.
by freyj6
Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at stock market highs
Replies: 52
Views: 4725

Re: Investing at stock market highs

IMO there's nothing wrong with dollar cost averaging in at times like these. If you have 50k, you could put 10k in per month unless there's a correction, in which case you could put all of it in then. And I know no one here believes in timing of any kind, but returns during both August and September...
by freyj6
Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 6674

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Larry what are your thoughts on consumer staples funds like XLP and VDC as a substitute for low-vol? Valuations seem to be through the roof right now, but assuming an environment where valuations are similar to the broad market, do you think they might have a place? Or are there fundamental reasons ...
by freyj6
Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 6674

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Thanks Larry. That makes sense, and I'll look forward to your blog post. I certainly don't plan on jumping back in any time soon and I was happy to quit while ahead on this one. But if the staples sector falls dramatically out of favor, say, 5 years from now, I'd happily jump back in. That being sai...
by freyj6
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value of Low Volatility
Replies: 65
Views: 6674

Re: The Value of Low Volatility

Lots of great posts here. I agree that some of the low-volatility indexes are generally worth having on a risk-adjusted basis. It seems that a 100% allocation to low-volatility stocks will general outperform an 80/20 with around the same risk. At current levels with all the yield chasing and high va...
by freyj6
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100 % Wellesley Admiral (VWIAX)?
Replies: 35
Views: 4721

Re: 100 % Wellesley Admiral (VWIAX)?

You could definitely do a lot worse -- it seems to be a great fund. The main thing I'd suggest considering is that the high performance of bonds in the last 30 years is unlikely to continue. Because Wellesley is so bond-oriented, you may see much lower returns than you were hoping for. Still, it's a...
by freyj6
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 267
Views: 19669

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

The magic of "100%" bothers me. People are constantly talking about that specific number. The Vanguard Target Retirement Funds stay at 90% stocks from the beginning up until 25 years before retirement, i.e. up until age 40. https://s32.postimg.org/tqurc1eg5/Captura_de_pantalla_2016_07_24_...
by freyj6
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment Review
Replies: 113
Views: 20110

Re: Betterment Review

Anyone have specific thoughts or experiences with Wealthfront? How does it compare?

At the moment it seems unlikely that I'll max my 401k and my Roth IRA, but if I did have a little money left over for a taxable account, the robo advisors would seem more enticing.
by freyj6
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding value by combining value and Momentum
Replies: 35
Views: 3020

Re: Adding value by combining value and Momentum

@Five scoop - I noticed the same thing. Clearly momentum (and all other strategies) will have periods of underperformance, but the fact that all those funds have underperformed over a 6 year uptrend seems questionable. This would be the kind of market I'd expect them to do the best in. It's similar ...

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