Search found 183 matches

by freyj6
Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Portfolio Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 1870

Re: International Portfolio Tilt

Contrary to most bogleheads, I think it's worth making some small adjustments. But the key word there is definitely "small". It may seem strange now, but lots of people thought the US market was overvalued and we were due for a crash in 2013. Since then it's almost doubled. The people who ...
by freyj6
Wed Apr 12, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Four Pillars of Investing" is one of today's Kindle daily deals
Replies: 24
Views: 4004

Re: "The Four Pillars of Investing" is one of today's Kindle daily deals

Great book. William Bernstein is my favorite investing author... wish he'd continue to write :)
by freyj6
Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 7468

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Hey Larry,

This is some really interesting stuff, especially considering that interest rates are low and US stock prices are so high.

Is it possible to invest in LENDX or SRRIX directly through a Roth IRA, or does one need a broker/adviser?

Thanks!
by freyj6
Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1475

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

"The amount of the credit is 50%, 20% or 10% of your retirement plan or IRA contributions up to $2,000 ($4,000 if married filing jointly), depending on your adjusted gross income" E.g. 10%*$2,000 =$200 Oh, got it. I thought the $2000 was the maximum that could be received as a % of contri...
by freyj6
Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1475

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

I'm not sure I follow.

The link says 0% credit for single, non-head-of-household filers with AGIs above $31,000. It looks like my AGI will be higher than that.

What am I missing?

Thanks!
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enrolling in New Employer 401K
Replies: 2
Views: 162

Re: Enrolling in New Employer 401K

Well, you've got access to some good funds so that's great. I'm not too familiar with the non-Vanguard funds, but definitely stay out of anything with a high expense ratio (say, 0.50% or higher). That being said, I'd do one of two things if I were you. 1) Keep everything simple, put it all in a targ...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1475

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

Consider: Retirement Savings Contributions Credit https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-savings-contributions-savers-credit Also, think about whether you should be doing Trad or Roth (or a mix). Roth may be right, but you shouldn't jump to that conclusion without...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why nobody talk about cash allocation ?
Replies: 17
Views: 2054

Re: Why nobody talk about cash allocation ?

I don't really see how the amount of cash you hold has anything to do with the amount of funds you have saved. That is because the very reason for holding cash (in most cases) is to satisfy a need such as to tide you over if you lose your job or in retirement to last a certain number of years in a ...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1475

Re: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

@B42 - No state tax. They apparently have a good health plan with several options but I'm not sure how it works yet. @shang - Didn't know that.... that's quite a bit! @everyone else - So even if the HSA contribution helps out here, I'm still looking at a couple thousand toward medicare and SS and th...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1475

Maxing tax-advantaged accounts -- am I getting this right?

A little background: I'm 28, been maxing my Roth IRA for 5 years + rolled over my 401k at a 10% tax rate the year I quit my job. No other accounts besides the Roth. I'll be starting a new job soon and expect to make around 60k. I plan to: 1) Max my 401(k) contributions (18k) 2) Max my Roth IRA contr...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term Bond Funds
Replies: 3
Views: 602

Re: Short Term Bond Funds

+1 to venkman above. Holding short term bonds is a bit of a gamble if you might take the money out very soon, but you're unlikely to lose or gain more than 2-3% in the short term, so you might as well. I'll list the ETF versions since I don't remember the names of the mutual funds: VTIP and VGSH are...
by freyj6
Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The $1,124,176 Car.
Replies: 99
Views: 8196

Re: The $1,124,176 Car.

I get less than $500,000 after 40 years with 7% real return. With stock valuations being somewhat high, 7% real might be pushing it even for 100% stocks. For a 3-fund portfolio like you recommend, you might only get 4-5% real, which could put you as low as $130,000 after 40 years. Not exactly what I...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 6516

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I have a big EM holding, which I've obviously been really happy with for the last year or so. I do find myself questioning it more though lately. On one hand, long periods of underperformance are what cause investors to shy away, therefore creating big opportunities. On the other hand though, we've ...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3344

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

So what holding period would you say relates to a good time to invest? Depends on your goals. If I thought I was likely to lose money over the next 19 years, my stock allocation would be lower than it is. I understand your sentiment, but we're a ways off from a CAPE of 40. Also, keep in mind that w...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 17571

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

I've never understood people going 100% cash and waiting. I'm not quite on board with the people who say "it's always a good time! Go 100% in today!" but I've never been so sure of where we are in the cycle that I'd pull everything out. IMO, if you're the kind of person who would do some a...
by freyj6
Sun Mar 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3344

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you hold the equities long enough, the "bad time to invest" is largely overwhelmed by the long-term gains that the market has always produced. And if ...
by freyj6
Sat Mar 18, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 3344

Re: Schwab: Is There Ever a Bad Time to Invest?

Investing will always look good when you end the period well into a bull market. While I generally agree with the sentiment (over the long haul, the market eventually goes up) there are plenty of bad times to invest. If you had invested at market top in Japan in the late 80s, you'd have quickly lost...
by freyj6
Fri Mar 17, 2017 2:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Consumer Staples Index VCSAX
Replies: 3
Views: 564

Re: Vanguard Consumer Staples Index VCSAX

I'm a fan. It got a little too pricey for me when everyone seemed to be chasing dividends last summer so I sold my 15% allocation then. I think it's a great fund though. The downside is that it's even more expensive than the rest of the US market right now; the upside is that it's way less volatile ...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?
Replies: 87
Views: 5932

Re: What degree of stock market decline would tempt you to deviate from your AA?

I'd probably DCA into progressively more value-y funds as the market dropped more. For instance, if I was 50/50 when the crash started and stocks dropped 40% and bonds increased 10%, I'd rebalance on the way down, then start averaging into VOO or something. If the market continued to drop to 50, 60 ...
by freyj6
Wed Mar 01, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and the risk of crashes
Replies: 18
Views: 2044

Re: Momentum and the risk of crashes

Larry what's your take on the AQR momentum funds? I remember you saying that you held one or two of them, and that you recommend them (I may be remembering wrong). Yet... http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,VB,VEA,AMOMX,AIMOX,ASMOX Over the past 8 years, they've all underperformed the reg...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 26, 2017 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should we wait before buying in?
Replies: 52
Views: 4975

Re: Should we wait before buying in?

Having tried to time my way back in and fail miserably. For emotional reasons only, I would probably move a percentage back in (maybe 50%) and then DCA the rest back in. +1 It's a bit of a gamble either way, but you're going to feel really bad if you put in 100% right now and the market drops 30% i...
by freyj6
Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20790

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

https://s9.postimg.org/d1f2le527/cheese_correlation.png lol! Cheese consumption aside: two more points. 1. I absolutely don't understand people trying to make % return predictions, even if it's 10 years out. There's absolutely no way ensure being remotely close. First, say cape/pe/pb/whatever is a ...
by freyj6
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20790

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I certainly have no idea what the market will do, but I have to admit the current rally has made me more cautious. I've basically been 100% stocks since 2013. Until very recently, I had about 15% VBR and 15% VOE allocation. Over the past month, I've slowly overbalanced completely out of VBR and into...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The case against small cap value
Replies: 79
Views: 14132

Re: The case against small cap value

Hmm, I remember looking on portfolio visualizer a while ago and finding that mid cap value outperformed small cap value overall, and in most 5 year periods, but when I look now the results seem to have changed. Maybe they changed something? But yeah, I'm also a big fan of mid cap value. I do a 50/50...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 19, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1.3 million dollars in debt
Replies: 36
Views: 8429

Re: 1.3 million dollars in debt

Like a few others have said, I'd focus on paying off debt and ignore everything else for now. Keep it simple for now.

When you start investing, go with a safe portfolio like 25% Total US, 25% Total International and 50% short term bonds.
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 213
Views: 24169

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

"Start with the S&P 500: Here's one that really surprised me: Of these 61 periods, small-cap value stocks beat the S&P 500 60 times. If that's not consistency, I don't know what would qualify." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-one-asset-class-every-investor-needs-2014-06-25 In...
by freyj6
Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this
Replies: 22
Views: 2023

Re: Anyone have a tilt portfolio similar to this

Yes mine is/has been quite similar to that.

Much to the dismay of the bogleheads, however, I've been selling a bit of small cap value recently.
by freyj6
Wed Feb 01, 2017 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock market optimism
Replies: 38
Views: 4064

Re: Stock market optimism

I think it will be quite a while before we see the mad optimism of the late 90s again. The last two crashes are still too recent in memory and people seem to be cautious about the future. I think the caution will keep us out of that real "bubble" territory for a bit, but I wouldn't be surp...
by freyj6
Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sectors and bubbles
Replies: 11
Views: 767

Re: Sectors and bubbles

I think there's some merit to it and I occasionally do a bit of adjusting here and there myself.

That being said, like others have mentioned, a) you're more likely to lose money than make extra money and b) a 1% fee outweighs any outperformance you might hope to achieve.

I'd say stick to your guns.
by freyj6
Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2339

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

Personally I think consumer staples (VDC) is a really interesting fund. I held it for a year or so from July or August 2015 to mid-July 2016 and was obviously very happy with it. I had planned to hold it as a long-term investment (10-15% of portfolio) but there was so much buzz around VDC, VPU, VNQ ...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 23, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging
Replies: 29
Views: 2834

Re: The power of investing early VS. Dollar cost averaging

As others have said, more time in the market usually wins out.

It might, however, occasionally be prudent to alter your strategy based on market conditions.

If, for example, P/E ratios were 35 or 40, perhaps you'd funnel your money into bonds until equities reached more sane valuations.
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement
Replies: 21
Views: 1581

Re: Second Guessing Having A % In Short Bonds in Retirement

Bond duration is all about mitigating inflation and interest rate risk. All you really need to think about in that regard is how much risk you want to take. If you have 75 years of living expenses though, virtually nothing will pose a problem for you. You could easily hold a high equity allocation a...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1271

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

The trouble is knowing when the dips and the peaks are. Perhaps, like some people, you thought the market was high in 2012 and went to 60/40. The market is now 50% higher. I do think it's worth doing this kind of thing when extreme valuations are reached. I'd gradually lower my stock allocation as p...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 18, 2016 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4214

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

Understand though that this introduces a new type of risk: risk of ruin. That type of risk is not present in an unleveraged portfolio. This risk diminished as the portfolio value increases however, so were ruin to occur, it would most likely occur prior to the goal notional valuation when the portf...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund liquidity (VFICX, VBIIX, BIV, or VICSX)
Replies: 2
Views: 727

Re: Bond fund liquidity (VFICX, VBIIX, BIV, or VICSX)

If liquidity is your concern, splitting up the funds into components makes little sense, imo.

Vanguard Total Bond is one of the most liquid bond funds out there. Individual components may be less liquid.

I doubt that any bond funds with many billions in assets will have liquidity problems.
by freyj6
Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?
Replies: 41
Views: 4214

Re: Time Diversification - bottom line, what do you do?

The argument generally made against holding 100% stocks when you're young is that it's psychologically challenging and a fair number of people are likely to lose a lot of money selling at bottom. Psychology aside, there is little reason to believe that bonds will outperform stocks over the next 20 o...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Knowing what you know now...
Replies: 22
Views: 2788

Re: Knowing what you know now...

I'm still young (28), but I'll offer my perspective. First, the extent to which frugality and living an exciting life are painted as mutually exclusive is misguided to say the least. To illustrate with a personal example, last year I quit my job and travelled all over the US and South America for 7 ...
by freyj6
Sat Aug 13, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 842

Re: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

It's really difficult to judge bond funds without understanding what the real duration is.

If I were to hold, say, total BND instead of intermediate treasuries, I'd need to know what the 20% MBS really is.
by freyj6
Sat Aug 13, 2016 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 842

Re: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

Cool, thanks.

Is there any way to roughly estimate convexity when it's not listed?
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 842

Convexity and concavity with bonds and interest rates

As I understand it, certain bonds (or bond funds) tend to move towards longer or shorter duration in the face of changing interest rates or inflation. Mortgage-backed securities, for example, extend in effective duration when interest rates rise, whereas I've read that treasuries may have a slight n...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk..Total Bond vs IT Treasury
Replies: 5
Views: 807

Re: Bond Risk..Total Bond vs IT Treasury

Sharp ratios can be misleading. What's important with bonds is WHEN they're volatile, and in which direction. http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?SPY,FIBAX,FTBFX Check out this chart, stretch out the timeline, and look at late 2008, early 2009, the smaller crashes in 2010 and late 2011, and t...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 14952

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

. :) Vanguard's short-term gov is shorter than short-term corp and short-term bond so it doesn't quite make for a fair comparison. 1-3-yr yields quite low, plus you don't get much of a flight to quality effect. True. And it's surprisingly difficult to find a government bond fund with a ~2.8 year av...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 186
Views: 24520

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

In terms of general Boglehead philosophy, we seem to take the following things to be truths: - Some risk is shed by diversifying. - Keeping costs low is vital. - Hold market weights as one does not know more than anyone else. - Stay the course. If we take these to be truths, then it is philosophica...
by freyj6
Fri Aug 12, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another look at corporate bonds
Replies: 209
Views: 14952

Re: Another look at corporate bonds

Good article. I agree it's difficult to find a place for corporate bonds funds that makes sense. As mentioned by, Swedroe, Bernstein and Swensen, a couple of the major drawbacks seem to be: -Generally poor correlation during major bear markets and sudden crashes (for this reason, higher yield isn't ...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing
Replies: 28
Views: 3060

Re: Bonds, Aversion to Market Timing, and FIRE'ing

So I am starting to draw near to early retirement, thanks in large part to the ideas espoused on this board (index funds, stay the course, live below your means, etc) and the help of many folks on this board over the years. One piece of advice I have never really heeded, though. Any time I posted o...
by freyj6
Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 4086

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

Valuations aren't high enough to be worrisome by themselves, IMO. I'm not opposed to making AA adjustments based on valuations, but I think the key is to make them small and wait for more extreme valuations. I might, for example, reduce stock allocation by 10% if CAPE hit 30 and another 5-10% for ea...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1987

Re: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio

Some other thoughts: -If it's a taxable account, Wealthfront or Betterment may we worth considering simply for the tax loss harvesting. -REITs are generally a bad idea in a taxable account. They are very tax-inefficient. -You may want to open a Roth IRA and begin siphoning $5500 per year in from you...
by freyj6
Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 186
Views: 24520

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I find this to be a strange exception to the boglehead philosophy. If there answer is simply as it is with market timing: "I don't know", then there are two allocations that makes sense: 1) equal weight and 2) cap weight. Overweighting or underweighting either is making a bet. Personally I...
by freyj6
Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1987

Re: Early 20s seeking Aggressive Portfolio

Looks like a pretty solid Boglehead-approved portfolio to me. A few thoughts: 1) As I'm sure you've heard 100x by now, you need to be very aware of your risk tolerance. How certain are you that, when the market drops 50%+, that you won't be tempted to pull out? 2) Does your attraction to REITs have ...

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