Search found 189 matches

by frankmorris
Thu May 25, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

NiceUnparticularMan wrote:OK, that makes sense. But I might note taking this out of your hands could still be your ultimate conclusion.


It's quite possible, indeed. In fact, I'm strongly, strongly leaning toward a very simple 3 fund portfolio.
by frankmorris
Thu May 25, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Interestingly, I wonder if Index Funds themselves could be involved - not necessarily as the catalyst, but perhaps something that may eventually affect the "bandwidth" of an eventual decline - just heard a Bloomberg guest posit that passive funds reduce volatility and act more as "fol...
by frankmorris
Thu May 25, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Interesting @CyclingDuo - just checked out those lines.
by frankmorris
Wed May 24, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

FYI about the new Shiller interview: Nobel winner Robert Shiller: Stay in the market because it ‘could go up 50 percent from here’ http://www.cnbc.com/id/104487779 When asked for clarification later in the interview, Shiller stated that his 50% call was for over the next 10 years, and that it could...
by frankmorris
Wed May 24, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

It sounds to me you really just need to take this decision out of your own hands. Put all your money in some Target fund and stop killing yourself with anxiety. Or just stay out of the stock market altogether and just save more/work longer/live with less. Nothing wrong with that if it keeps you fro...
by frankmorris
Wed May 24, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

@wolf359: Yes - that's exactly what's prompting me to ask these questions, as I feel like there is certainly a bias toward the upside. People seem to want for the market to go up. The bulls are running the show. Has to make one wonder what we're getting wrong. At the same time, I think we need more ...
by frankmorris
Wed May 24, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Inflation is going to pickup eventually. People have been looking for it to pick up since the quantitative easing started in the GEC. It hasn't really happened, and probably won't happen on a schedule that anyone expects... but when it does, the interest rates demanded will rise, and there could be...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Thanks everyone. Much appreciated. MindBogler - interesting point about the 08 year rolling off the CAPE. When I was previously thinking CAPE was an average of PE ratios (not just earnings), I was actually thinking that the incredibly high valuations back then must have been impacting the current st...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think people see a bubble because they look back to 2008-2009 and see the increase from there, but go back to 2002 or 2000 and let me know if the growth of the stock market over a longer period seems unreasonably high. This is a really fantastic point - if you consider the last few years simply p...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think we are way over computerized for too much stuff with little security or hacking protection. We are just one coordinated cyber attack from people not having enough to eat or correct medical treatment or correct bank accounts. We are being complacent all over the place. Yes most of the people...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

FYI about the new Shiller interview:

Nobel winner Robert Shiller: Stay in the market because it ‘could go up 50 percent from here’
http://www.cnbc.com/id/104487779
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

No, gains are not lost. The only way to lose is to sell your shares at the bottom of the drop. In a market crash the only thing that drops is the prices of the shares, but all the shares are still there. And when the market rebounds, the value to your shares goes back up. Wm Bernstein has addressed...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

And yet another: “Boo.com was going to sell at full price clothes that people were not yet wearing. But my friend had seen the cover of Time with the headline “Kiss Your Mall Goodbye: Online Shopping Is Faster, Cheaper, and Better.” The prestigious firm of JP Morgan had invested millions in the comp...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Looking at the high flyers currently (e.g., Netflix, Amazon, etc.), they seem to have good business models. Sure, some of the PE ratios are quite high, but many of these companies seem to be built around solid business models. 2 points. Good companies does not necessarily mean a good stock price. B...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think people see a bubble because they look back to 2008-2009 and see the increase from there, but go back to 2002 or 2000 and let me know if the growth of the stock market over a longer period seems unreasonably high. This is a really fantastic point - if you consider the last few years simply p...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Great point! Yes, it's entirely possible that the market goes up another 40%, before dropping 30%. Waiting would put you behind by 10%. More broadly, thanks everyone - you've helped me understand my original/specific question about how the CAPE is calculated, as well as the relative futility of try...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

I think people see a bubble because they look back to 2008-2009 and see the increase from there, but go back to 2002 or 2000 and let me know if the growth of the stock market over a longer period seems unreasonably high. This is a really fantastic point - if you consider the last few years simply p...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

In the spirit of spitballing, and since OP is focused on tech. I guess if I had to offer an opinion, seems like there's too many "me too" companies with business models that are easily duplicated. It's not just Uber/Lyft, but I believe there are other more local competitors. There seems t...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Juicero? Uber? There's a lot more venture capital available now, so tech-based startups can get very large on private investment before ever doing an IPO. Never heard of Juicero - just tried to look it up and doesn't seem to be publicly traded? I'd argue with Uber that there is actually a business ...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Thought about this a bit more over the past hour, and here's a question for you all: If you received an unexpected gift of $100,000 tomorrow morning and wanted to invest it, would you invest it based on your current allocation, or perhaps put it in a more conservative investment (e.g., bonds) until ...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

In 1996, CAPE was the highest value it had ever been since right before the Great Depression. Yet, the market more than doubled from 1996 to 2000, before dropping 40% in the crash. The market never dropped below where it was in 1996. By the CAPE metric, the market was extremely over-valued in 1996,...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Thanks everyone - yes, hindsight is 20/20, and I'm not advocating a market timing strategy here - just trying to draw parallels between the book's historical perspective and present day. It seems that one should have known that the tulip craze was a bit ridiculous. It does seem that people fool them...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Except that, if history guides the future, gains at these high levels of valuations are almost always completely lost, relatively quickly. We'd indeed be in a period of "this time it's different" if we were to see sustained CAPEs at this level, or even just a gradual tapering off of CAPE. ...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 69
Views: 5947

The dot com "do over" bull market?

Reading through Random Walk Down Wall Street, and trying really hard to see what bubble we're in right now, if we're in one. One comment theme amongst bubbles is that some new fad (business model, technology, etc.) causes people to not see that the business models those fads are built around are NOT...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

I'd keep in mind the markets can move to lower valuations over time without a dramatic drop at any point. Yes, this would seem to be the risk of that - not having a clear "re-entry" Plan based on any rules. Waiting for some clear moment. Still, what if one set up a rule that they would be...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Thanks everyone - I had misunderstood CAPE as being an average PE ratio over the past 10 years, instead of just a current to price to averaged earnings. That definitely clarifies things. Now, this is going to sound like a market timing question (and it may be), but bear with me: For those who put st...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

So I'm still not sure any of this weighs in on my original question, which is whether the "future explanatory power" or predictive nature of the CAPE is based on whether one is currently invested, or if one is NOT YET invested. Again, if the market crashes tomorrow and goes down by 50%, an...
by frankmorris
Tue May 23, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2223

Question on Shiller CAPE predictions

Just read through the most recent threads here on Schiller, and done a bit of searching elsewhere. This is probably a basic question, but here it is: Does the Schiller CAPE predictions about future returns consider the start date, or is it start date insensitive? Here's what I mean: Does Schiller CA...
by frankmorris
Mon May 22, 2017 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Frank, what you have found is one of the hot buttons on the Boglehead forum. It is like watching a good old fashioned pie fight. Other such topics are factor tilting, value threads, dividend threads, rebalancing threads. It is all good, clean fun. It seems I have indeed nedsaid. I certainly wasn't ...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Frank, what you have found is one of the hot buttons on the Boglehead forum. It is like watching a good old fashioned pie fight. Other such topics are factor tilting, value threads, dividend threads, rebalancing threads. It is all good, clean fun. It seems I have indeed nedsaid. I certainly wasn't ...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Still, if we had no history of the stock market - if it had been invented yesterday and we had no sense of if or how it may perform going forward - not on a day-to-day basis, but a general sense that it can work, you'd simply be a speculator. I think that's fair. I do start with a more fundamental ...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Thanks everyone - I appreciate the specific comments challenging the data on international vs US. NiceUnparticularMan - thank you for the data breakdown and extended discussion. This definitely shed some light on the issue. I'd reassert that it would be silly to not look at historical performance t...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Very fair questions, indeed. I think part of my reliance of Portfolio Visualizer is I'm not aware of a better way of evaluating long-term returns. What other tools are out there if I want to compare two different investments over time? Many folks seem to argue against simply using average returns, ...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

All I want to know is, have you figured out how to open an investment account yet? Not sure if this was a serious question or an insult, but yes - I've had one for about 10 years, despite being quite behind in both saving and learning. I'm hoping that by asking questions and seeking information, I ...
by frankmorris
Sun May 21, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Thanks everyone - Sorry for the delay, busy weekend at work. You all have convinced me that international exposure is important to have. Especially great point about having exposure letting you NOT feel like you've missed the party somehow. At the end of the day, I guess there's just not one number ...
by frankmorris
Fri May 19, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

I ended up running several more comparisons on PV with multiple start dates throughout the 70s, 80s, & 90s, and end dates at either present or 2000, which was of course following the "lost decade" in the US. There wasn't a single time in which the US allocation didn't beat internation...
by frankmorris
Fri May 19, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Thanks everyone - I appreciate the specific comments challenging the data on international vs US. NiceUnparticularMan - thank you for the data breakdown and extended discussion. This definitely shed some light on the issue. I'd reassert that it would be silly to not look at historical performance to...
by frankmorris
Thu May 18, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

Regarding the market-weighted strategy: I hear you all, and yes - I agree that, from my extremely limited perspective, seems like the most intuitive & neutral way of weighting the market.
by frankmorris
Thu May 18, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Frank, the thing is that I found that until I stopped looking at comparisons of performance over a single particular chosen period of time, and started soaking myself in a personal exploration of how results vary when you change the endpoints, I just didn't "get" how variable financial da...
by frankmorris
Thu May 18, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Just ran 2 hypothetical portfolios through Portfolio Visualizer out of curiosity, with returns generated from 1990-2017 (27 years) CAGR: 1: Total US: 9.48% 2: Total Global ex-US: 3.82% Simple question: Where's the premium or benefit from adding Global/International? With only semi-snark, nice! You ...
by frankmorris
Thu May 18, 2017 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Reading through the rest of responses here: Apologies for seeming to have hand-selected convenient data. To clarify, I'm not trying to make a point, as much as I am trying to look into the data and understand it. We all based our investing decisions on history - if the stock market yielded historica...
by frankmorris
Thu May 18, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Just ran 2 hypothetical portfolios through Portfolio Visualizer out of curiosity, with returns generated from 1990-2017 (27 years) CAGR: 1: Total US: 9.48% 2: Total Global ex-US: 3.82% Simple question: Where's the premium or benefit from adding Global/International? With only semi-snark, nice! You ...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

After all, market cap is a tilt, so anyone invested in VTI is tilting, just in one direction. What do you mean by this - what do you think VTI is a tilt from? Well, it's "market beta" for one - the first "factor" in the factor argument, but more specifically it's an intentionall...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

Sort of reminds me of sports - I'm not a huge sports fan, but there are diehard fans that stick with their teams through thick and thin - not because of the eventual premium it will bring them, but because of a deeper belief or value in the underlying entity. Don't get me wrong - I'm in it for the ...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

Thanks everyone - Didn't mean to start an old and repetitive argument AlohoJoe. I realize I'm new here. I've been a member at another forum (totally different topic) for quite a few years and do know the feeling when someone new comes along and thinks they've discovered the next undiscovered topic. ...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4778

International: Where's the benefit?

Just ran 2 hypothetical portfolios through Portfolio Visualizer out of curiosity, with returns generated from 1990-2017 (27 years) CAGR: 1: Total US: 9.48% 2: Total Global ex-US: 3.82% Simple question: Where's the premium or benefit from adding Global/International? I know our CAPE 10 ratios are dif...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

Thank you Taylor, nedsaid, BigJohn, and others. Taylor, I think I had read through that thread previously, but just read through it again briefly. It's really great to read a highly engaging, yet respectful, discussion of the topic, and to be able to participate in it. BigJohn, I think that's probab...
by frankmorris
Wed May 17, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

Thanks all - LadyGeek thanks for the link. I actually made may way largely through the wiki on this site over the weekend - some good stuff on here for sure. Really appreciate all the time you all have put in creating these invaluable educational resources. Just read through the IJS/VIOV prospectuse...
by frankmorris
Tue May 16, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2577

Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

Hi all, I've spent the better part of the last week trying to do as much research as I can into tilting using factor-investing. I just finished both Black Swans & Factor-Investing by Swedroe (as best I could - some of those chapters in factor-investing were....dense). My general conclusion is th...
by frankmorris
Tue May 16, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?
Replies: 8
Views: 656

Re: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?

David Jay wrote:Frank:
Did you read the thread on factors (anomalies)? viewtopic.php?t=218694


Thanks David Jay - yes, found it very instructive. Read it last week.

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