Search found 390 matches

by dodonnell
Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USD money market fund/T-bills
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: USD money market fund/T-bills

Hi there, ..snip.. park my liquid USD part of my portfolio in. I use Interactive Brokers ..snip.. IB pays roughly FedFunds -0.5% on cash balances over 10k USD (1.16% - 0.5% - 0.66%). They sweep customer cash into a FDIC bank conduit series as the better US brokers also do. So a 2M cash balance woul...
by dodonnell
Tue Jun 13, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working
Replies: 26
Views: 3324

Re: Excel Macro using Yahoo Finance- not working

I was recently very surprised to learn that Yahoo made a change that rendered all of my excel macro based financial models garbage. They require a cookie and a crumb but it is now possible to get it back up and running with a little programming know how. Here is the link that has the sample code. I...
by dodonnell
Wed May 31, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2362

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Morningstar appears to be incorrect on Total Returns. (<rightClick> -> View Image for larger charts) http://i.imgur.com/fpgOixO.png Maybe they are just charting the Price return (without the dividends reinvested ... see the dotted versions below http://i.imgur.com/GorLzRA.png
by dodonnell
Wed May 31, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2362

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Just make sure you don't confuse "Fair Value" with "Expected Returns" How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns? by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013, bogleheads.org since the middle of 2013, the average annual real return for reits was about 7% Very aware of the Perfo...
by dodonnell
Tue May 30, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2362

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Just make sure you don't confuse "Fair Value" with "Expected Returns"

How Would Mr. Bogle Calculate Expected REIT Returns?
by Bill Bernstein » Mon May 06, 2013, bogleheads.org
by dodonnell
Tue May 30, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 62
Views: 6429

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

Trust, but (always) verify

NASDAQ TIPS Dividends

You can download 10 years worth of daily price data using the link at the bottom of this page (unadjusted :( )
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tip/historical
by dodonnell
Mon May 29, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 62
Views: 6429

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

i was just trying to formulate an excel calc sheet to convert available yahoo data (prices & div) to the way the data used to be. I discovered another Yahoo error (at least i think it's an error). https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TIP/history?period1=831963600&period2=1496034000&interval=...
by dodonnell
Wed May 17, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?
Replies: 62
Views: 6429

Re: yahoo finance - adjusted price data incorrect?

..snip.. Worse, I also have scripts that use the ichart interface to grab historical data. For example, this URL should retrieve a CSV file of the entire price history of vtsax: https://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=vtsax Instead it gives me an error page: "Our engineers are working qui...
by dodonnell
Sun May 14, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity portfolio advisory services
Replies: 25
Views: 2444

Re: Fidelity portfolio advisory services

Fidelity pays employees more to sell PAS. https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf 2008 Thread on Fidelity PAS https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=186394 I must admit, I am horrified by this portfolio management from Fidelity. - ...
by dodonnell
Sat May 13, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn
Replies: 43
Views: 3556

Re: What happens to BND (Total Bond Index) during a downturn

VBMFX during 2008-2009
Blue is Total Return
(interest/dividend reinvested back into the fund)
Green is Price Return Only
... below, Green is actual Price

Image

<right-click>image -> "View Image" ... for a larger chart
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Go Inside Jack's Office
Replies: 21
Views: 2902

Re: Go Inside Jack's Office

Very nice ... I hope this was filmed recently ... Jack looks great
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3030

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

grabiner, good point Maybe i should have labeled my chart " Quality Fixed Income Ingredients " instead of choices. I assumed blending your fixed income portfolio to obtain the desired behavior, duration, distribution, etc... My intent was to show the extremes on the quality fixed income be...
by dodonnell
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk
Replies: 39
Views: 3030

Re: Help Understanding Preferred Stock Risk

...snip... https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VFINX&region=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2...
by dodonnell
Thu Jan 19, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Formula for dividend tax drag?
Replies: 51
Views: 4967

Re: Formula for dividend tax drag?

@FiveK - Interesting challenge. It is not straightforward. Just to be clear: Do want to add a variable PMT that is a constant annual cash flow into/out of the return series ? If we restrict it to positive, the formula may be somewhat acheivable. If we allow negative, or withdrawals, we would have to...
by dodonnell
Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 65
Views: 4140

Re: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting

To come back to the Vanguard white paper by Sarah Hammer, I wonder if she herself has any practical experience in her own accounts with tax-loss harvesting. I think that talking theory is nice, but if she had done it with any Vanguard mutual funds, then she would have seen for herself that she didn...
by dodonnell
Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting
Replies: 65
Views: 4140

Re: Disadvantage of Tax loss harvesting

STATE INCOME TAX MUST ALSO BE CONSIDERED . Some States, like New Jersey and Pennsylvania, DO NOT allow capital loss carry over. Over harvesting losses more than needed in on year, could potentially cost a taxpayer as much as a ~9% tax in a State like New Jersey, on future gains in the following yea...
by dodonnell
Sun Dec 18, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VoIP 'Oma' vs 'Vonage' phone
Replies: 39
Views: 3269

Voip.ms w Obi200

+1 using Obi200 w Voip.ms for a few years: most configurable service, best call quality (ping to newyork.voip.ms is <10ms), and monthly home bill is ~ $2/month When I changed telephone systems a few years ago, features I required like e911 and call forwarding from the handset were not available with...
by dodonnell
Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$
Replies: 42
Views: 4250

Re: Muni bond ladder vs fund for large $$$$

..snip.. I can have a ladder built and actively managed by a major brokerage/bank for 20 bps/year or use a bond fund/ETF with an expense of 12-15bps/yr ..snip.. Any "brokerage/bank" that is licensed by FINRA and acting as a "Registered Representative" will likely charge an undis...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 2476

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

What costs $10 to trade on Schwab, costs $1 on others. My point was that you don't need to pay $10 with Schwab. That's the most expensive approach to trading through them. If you think "commission free" has truly no cost to customers, then why this: Schwab routes ~95% of all their clients...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 2476

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". As someone who uses Scottrade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab for different brokerage accounts, it's my opinion that the Barron's rankings don't pertain to your typical long-term investor. The rankings are mostly based on factors are more importa...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account
Replies: 15
Views: 2476

Re: Schwab vs. Fidelity vs. Vanguard for Advisor Custodian Account

Schwab ranked second from dead last in "Costs". http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BJ044_Broker_G_20150306204020.jpg http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB51367578116875004693704580502703510707706 Schwab, Ameritrade, Etrade, and Fidelity sell their client's order flow to high freq...
by dodonnell
Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?
Replies: 12
Views: 1380

Re: Should I move all my Long Term NY Munis into Intermediate Term?

+1 The markets tend to be somewhat efficient here most of the time: NY fund returns will be lower than National Fund Returns due to the demand from NY investors. Said another way: Vanguard's National Muni Long SEC yield is 2.61% Vanguard's NY Muni Long SEC yield is 2.38% ... you would have to pay mo...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns
Replies: 87
Views: 7333

Re: The Futility of Predicting Future Returns

During World War II, [Nobel laureate, Ken] Arrow was assigned to a team of statisticians to produce long-range weather forecasts. After a time, Arrow and his team determined that their forecasts were not much better than pulling predictions out of a hat. They wrote their superiors, asking to be rel...
by dodonnell
Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?
Replies: 2
Views: 350

Re: Online chart of performance that includes reinvested divs and cap gains?

http://www.stockcharts.com

Plots adjusted price or "Total Return" by default.

You can also plot just a price chart by prepending an underscore in front of the symbol

Example: BSV
http://schrts.co/LQ3fY4

Example: _BSV
http://schrts.co/8ee7XU
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2784

Re: Help buying LEAPs

CBOE index options LEAPS are trading out to Dec 14 2017. ... currently the highest strike available that has traded is: SPX Dec14'17 3000 Call Bid 3.00 Ask 3.30 Last 3.20 ... so it looks like you can go out 2.5 years and you are looking at ~10% spread. At the money is trading ~5% spread Dec'17. So i...
by dodonnell
Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 3840

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

ANSWER: 25% of Assets Mathematically, while the investor's assets could approach zero, he can technically never go broke. That would be true of any betting scheme using a % of assets less than 100%. The point of Kelly is that it maximizes the expected growth rate . Very good point ( emphasis added)
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gambling with Commodities
Replies: 15
Views: 2128

Re: Gambling with Commodities

You don't need to gamble with real money to learn about trading commodities.
You can open a Paper Trading account at IB, TradeStation, and use resources available to University students.

Student Trading Lab
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 3840

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wh...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help buying LEAPs
Replies: 26
Views: 2784

Re: Help buying LEAPs

grok, Are you sure you are trading the correct product ? Bodie actually mentions at-the-money 3 year LEAPs or long term equity index options (on for example the S&P 500) as one alternative to consider. http://www.cboe.com/spxms/options/leaps/leapsspecifications.aspx LEAPS on the SPX or S&P50...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 3840

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

What percent of assets , should a rational investor "bet" on a trade with a 50% chance of success, if they either lose their wager (-100% return) or they triple it (+200% return). Clearly the trade has an extraordinarily high expected return of +50%, but what is the optimum size of the wa...
by dodonnell
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?
Replies: 36
Views: 3840

Re: Probability/statistics thinkers: should a skilled speculator go broke?

EDIT: Disregard this post, cottonseed1 already explained how to get the answer in his post above. Yes. A skilled speculator, who has a positive expected return on every trade, will likely go broke over time, if he is not a skilled risk manager. He needs to be able to answer a question like this: Wha...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

PJW, Respectfully, I used "strike price", not "market price". OP used "price" not "market price". Your fixation on "Market Price" is only relevant to your posts and is not addressing my post of "Strike Price". This is obfuscating my materia...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

So my mistake was that the Exchange's clearing firms technically perform the Strike Price adjustment for special dividends for them as their subcontractor and not the exchange themselves ? Is that all that i got wrong ? Edit: I changed my original erroneous post from "exchange" to "ex...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Exchanges do not implement a price drop on the ex-dividend date, traders and investors do. Ralph There are a few exceptions to this. While option's strike prices assume normal dividend flow during the time period, when a company declares an extraordinary dividend, the options exchange adjusts the s...
by dodonnell
Wed Jul 15, 2015 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

No, they actually reduce the after tax total return, which is the only return investors should care about.* *not (as) applicable in tax deferred accounts That's a very misleading statement. What dbr wrote is correct. Yes a fund that does not pay dividends does defer the tax paid and that effectivel...
by dodonnell
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Exchanges do not implement a price drop on the ex-dividend date, traders and investors do. Ralph There are a few exceptions to this. While option's strike prices assume normal dividend flow during the time period, when a company declares an extraordinary dividend, the options exchange 's clearing f...
by dodonnell
Sat Jul 11, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 5103

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

No, they actually reduce the after tax total return, which is the only return investors should care about.*

*not (as) applicable in tax deferred accounts
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 3561

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Executive summary: looks to me like it's all endpoint-dependent nonsense. I have to believe the latest book has updated results more recent than 25 years ago. Also, surprised to see Arithmetic returns instead of the lower CAGR or geometric returns required to determine the impact on a portfolio. Th...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 3561

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

Investors who switch between bonds and stocks just on the months the NBER identifies (well after the fact) as the beginning and end of the recession gain a mere 1/2 percentage point return over the buy and hold investor My prior post referenced CalculatedRisk/Bill McBride using 1970 to present, sta...
by dodonnell
Sun Jul 05, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recession watch: The yield curve
Replies: 26
Views: 3561

Re: Recession watch: The yield curve

According to Bill McBride's little exercise ... "magically" avoiding recessions would have lead to extraordinary out performance since 1970, or any time since. 12.7% vs 9.3% for buy and hold SP500. Timing the recession correctly always outperforms buy-and-hold. http://www.calculatedriskblo...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My funds are frozen
Replies: 28
Views: 6470

Re: My funds are frozen

They're refusing to accept my mailing address since it's a mailbox service company. Should they be accepting it? Every bank I deal with does. They are required to verify customers "physical address". Commercial mailboxes are fine for a mailing address for statements, etc., but they must a...
by dodonnell
Sat Jun 20, 2015 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 3155

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Good article on checking out Advisers. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/business/mutfund/before-the-advice-check-out-the-adviser.html Surprising to see them use Fidelity as a bad example: A former senior account executive at Fidelity, who left last year to join a small independent firm, said he was...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about becoming a financial adviser...but I need some guidance.
Replies: 37
Views: 5351

NAPFA 2nd former Chairmen to go to jail

Take a look at these two professional organizations. If I ever need an adviser and I will eventually, I will be calling for adviser from one these two professional organizations. Set your goal to be a genuine fiduciary adviser that charges by the hour and AUM (depending on what people bring to the ...
by dodonnell
Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard adviser
Replies: 14
Views: 1894

Re: Vanguard adviser

Do Vanguard advisers ever recommend non-Vanguard products ?

(... like commodities or DFA funds ? )
by dodonnell
Tue May 26, 2015 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?
Replies: 19
Views: 3155

Re: Anyone met with Fidelity Advisor before?

Before your meeting, you might want to understand how your Fidelity Adviser is compensated differently, for selling you types of different products.

https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/representative-compensation.pdf
by dodonnell
Fri May 15, 2015 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 892

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

I skimmed the Fidelity SAI to see if i could glean their distribution policy ... It is not straight forward, they could be doing any number of things with that cash (instead of distributing it to shareholders) http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/35315/000003531512000301/main.htm#mmm431664
by dodonnell
Thu May 14, 2015 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds
Replies: 3
Views: 892

Re: TTM yields on Fidelity vs Vanguard REIT funds

The 1 year Total Returns are within VGSIX: 12.53% FRXIX: 13.60% http://schrts.co/tuCJtC The 1 year Price Returns* are: VGSIX: 8.50% FRXIX: 10.61% http://schrts.co/CbH8ZR Fidelity's distributions to shareholders must be somewhat less than Vanguard's. Remember distributions can contain non-qualified d...
by dodonnell
Thu Feb 26, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Premium
Replies: 18
Views: 2852

Re: Fidelity Premium

Fidelity account holder here >250k. Vanguard, Schwab, and Interactive Brokers also. Interactive Brokers has professional level security. In addition to a multi-factor security device, you can also restrict the IP addresses for access. You can set up additional user/pswd and fob and control separate ...
by dodonnell
Sat Jan 17, 2015 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Accurate Market Data
Replies: 6
Views: 1040

Re: Accurate Market Data

Prices should be adjusted on the "ex-dividend" date. Prior to the market open.
Which site is using the correct and published "ex-dividend" date ?

http://finance.zacks.com/mutual-fund-definition-ex-record-dates-9225.html

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