Search found 1196 matches

by dkturner
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1492

Re: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio

Nisi, since you knew that (1) the SirHorace portfolio was very heavily invested in high quality bonds and (2) we have been in a bull market for bonds for the last 34 years wouldn't you be more interested in investigating how the assets in the SirHorace portfolio performed in the 34 years prior to 19...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 226
Views: 28471

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I figured a one year update was in order and would perhaps provide a nice counterbalance to the 100% equity threads popping up like mushrooms around here. My portfolio from 9/1/2015 to 9/1/2016: +2.6% Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth (my benchmark): +8.4% My performance compared to benchmark: -5.8% My ...
by dkturner
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3541

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

No need to delve into conspiracy theories on this one. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate than bond interest because corporations can't deduct the dividends they pay to their shareholders but they are allowed to deduct the interest they pay to their bondholders. Sort of a stab at minimizing the spe...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low P/E Ratio vs SP500
Replies: 13
Views: 1029

Re: low P/E Ratio vs SP500

I think your premise is wrong to begin with... but regardless..... It really should not be a surprising, it has not been a good decade for value stocks. If you split the market in half between value/growth, and P/E is a big part of that style distinction, growth has been on top. Morningstar Chart h...
by dkturner
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRAs and the federal estate tax
Replies: 2
Views: 313

IRAs and the federal estate tax

If a decedent's IRA account is subject to the federal estate tax because it has a non-spousal beneficiary it is also subject to federal income taxes when the beneficiary receives distributions from the IRA. Because of this "double taxation" situation the beneficiary is entitled to an incom...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E excluding cash
Replies: 6
Views: 518

Re: P/E excluding cash

I think part of the problem is that US tax laws right now make it so this cash more or less unavailable for use in operations without major tax costs. In that respect, it's hard to classify it as an asset. It's an asset alright, but you have to adjust the $ amount/value of overseas cash by the tax ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2074

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When I read these threads arguing about the existence, or non existence, of a value premium I take a look at the return of our, value tilted, portfolio and compare it to the return of a comparably invested "three fund" index fund portfolio. Our records don't go back 23 years, but we do hav...
by dkturner
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?
Replies: 38
Views: 4401

Re: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?

The return on savings is dependent on supply and demand. If more and more people are saving more and more money, there are relatively fewer profitable opportunities for that money to be put to use, so the returns decline. I think that a surplus of savings relative to uses for that savings has lead ...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?
Replies: 75
Views: 7368

Re: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?

AlohaJoe wrote:
YoungBoglehead wrote:But.... is that not efficient/productive? Truly?


Did you run the numbers on what you do versus buying immediately? What do the numbers say?


You really need to answer this question if you want to get a sense of how much value, if any, your waiting for buying opportunities is adding.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1565

Re: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks

livesoft wrote:I always laugh at recommendations. Malkiel has recommended a lot of things. So what?


Malkiel probably isn't as astute as you and I are, but let's give him a fair hearing. After all he's a former Vanguard director and is reputed to know a thing or two about investing.
by dkturner
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1893

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

JoMoney wrote:
dkturner wrote:... Being a Bhead (as I see it) I believe that markets are efficient (except when they're not) ...

:shock: :D Yeah, that seems to be the kind of thinking I see a lot of on bogleheads.


I couldn't find the tongue-in-cheek smilie.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1893

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

If you CHANGE the percentages based on what you think the market will do going forward, that is market timing. For instance, if he changes his AA to 10% REITS and 30% EM, because he thinks REITS are over-valued and EM is under-valued, that is market-timing. This is probably true, but what differenc...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1893

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1893

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund
Replies: 13
Views: 1854

Re: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund

mickeyd wrote:Looks like another lame VG experiment in trying to be everything to everyone. Does the investment world really need another niche fund?


It's Vanguard's only international value index fund. International value is hardly a "niche".
by dkturner
Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 48
Views: 4833

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Based on historical data, the average S&P500 real return was 6.62% and for small value it was 10.50%. For every starting date, small value outperformed. Bogleheads: According to Vanguard, during the past 10 years the S&P 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) outperformed Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fun...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5372

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Lobster, Mr. Buffett has commented several times on buybacks and I believe most recently on IBM and their repurchase program. He believes IBM did the right thing. He is a very firm believer in buying stocks below intrinsic value. He has never said that buybacks are good in general. In one of letter...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?
Replies: 35
Views: 1439

Re: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?

Help me "real world" this value companies vs. dividend companies thing. If I'm a Vanguard customer and I want to value tilt my portfolio by chasing low p/e or p/b I could choose the Vanguard Value Index Fund. I could also choose to value tilt my portfolio using the, less efficient, higher...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?
Replies: 35
Views: 1439

Re: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?

[Alex_686"]I am in the "dividends do not matter camp." Theoretically the argument is water tight and the empirical evidence is strong. The evidence for dividends is that it signals confident managers and value companies. If value companies tend to do better than growth companies then ...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8682

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

nisi wrote: I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. There is a wide gulf in what bonds were yielding in Ben Graham's time and now. Back then, intermediate term quality bonds provided both significant real inflation adjusted positive yields plus ...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 8682

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. It's hard to summarize fairly particularly when I'm in a hurry and reading an ebook edition that doesn't allow me to copy and paste, and what he says is subtle. But first let me dispose of an obvious objec...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is touting "beat the market," active management
Replies: 63
Views: 5873

Re: Vanguard is touting "beat the market," active management

...They're a mutual fund company with a goal of attracting more AUM. That usually involves putting a spin on things. Falsehoods we shouldn't stand for, but I don't see any. Again, which principles are being violated? Or relatedly, which positions do you think are not credible? Thanks again for the ...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks
Replies: 28
Views: 1117

Re: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks

In practice how would this taxation work? I can understand the system if a shareholder tenders shares directly to the issuer, but how would it work if a company simply buys back its stock at random on the open market?
by dkturner
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current
Replies: 18
Views: 2024

Re: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current

I thought this was interesting http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html $100 invested in 3 month Treasury Bills in 1928 would grow to $1,977.91 $100 invested in 10 year Treasury Bonds in 1928 would grow to $7,061.89 $100 invested in stocks in 1928 would grow to $29...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current
Replies: 18
Views: 2024

Re: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current

I thought this was interesting http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html $100 invested in 3 month Treasury Bills in 1928 would grow to $1,977.91 $100 invested in 10 year Treasury Bonds in 1928 would grow to $7,061.89 $100 invested in stocks in 1928 would grow to $29...
by dkturner
Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k rollover to IRA ERISA protections
Replies: 3
Views: 317

Re: 401k rollover to IRA ERISA protections

Chow, if you Google "IRA ERISA protection" you will find that the protection of IRAs from the claims of creditors are limited to $1 million by federal law (there are exceptions which allow for greater federal protection). State laws frequently provide higher, or unlimited, protection in ad...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 1462

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Does anyone have a analysis of why Wellington and Wellesley have done so well over the last 10-15 years? Is it purely that they invested smartly in corporate bonds or are the some other tricks they are using as well? Just curious... This isn't a scientific analysis, but it would seem that the manag...
by dkturner
Mon May 30, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth Taking?
Replies: 20
Views: 2530

Re: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth It?

Totally agree on this good point. I bought Vanguard's HYB fund (which avoids the worst of junk bonds) during the worst of the collapse in 2008-9 at which time the spread to Treasuries of similar maturities was greater than 11%. I sold some of my GNMA fund at the time which had held up beautifully d...
by dkturner
Thu May 19, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes
Replies: 3
Views: 1067

Re: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes

The new Federal regs for money market funds went into effect in April as far as I know. The basic aspects of these rules were discussed in a prior thread. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=178623 Vanguard decided it was necessary to change our sweep accounts to the Federal M...
by dkturner
Wed May 18, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?
Replies: 8
Views: 1219

Re: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?

The wiki has a detailed history. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_target_retirement_funds Summary: launched 2003. 2006 increased stock allocation 10-20%. 2010 changed intl funds from 3 portfolios to one broad index, increased intl stock allocation 10-20%. 2013 added intl bonds, making them ...
by dkturner
Mon May 16, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active
Replies: 45
Views: 4061

Re: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active

I think Intermediate-Term Bond Index (with 50/50 corporate and government bonds) is the an excellent choice which overcomes some of the downsides of TBM fund. +1 I use Intermediate-Term Bond Index instead of TBM. Is any one concerned with the Intermediate Bond Index's (VBILX) longer duration of 6.5...
by dkturner
Thu May 12, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Total Return
Replies: 9
Views: 2915

Re: S&P 500 Total Return

Not sure what you're looking for, but here's annual returns. I guessing that's too easy. :happy http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Paul Paul, Just for laughs compare what the Stern NYU chart shows for the S&P 500 for the last 15 years to what Vanguard say...
by dkturner
Wed May 11, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 6 — The Value Premium and Inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 2047

Re: Classic Bernstein 6 — The Value Premium and Inflation

Just to add more current charts to this thread, updated to 2015, showing the decline in the value premium (at left), corresponding with the decline in inflation since the 1970s (at right). If Mr. Bernstein’s formulation is correct, we’re not likely to see a very robust value premium again (or any v...
by dkturner
Mon May 09, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in consumer defensive
Replies: 15
Views: 1493

Re: Why invest in consumer defensive

Vanguard has a whole portfolio of sector funds which investors can use to overweight specific sectors of the market for a variety of reasons. To me the most obvious use of sector funds is to create a portfolio than underweights an economic sector in which an investor's human capital is invested. You...
by dkturner
Mon May 09, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Federal Reserve President Signals Higher US Interest Rates
Replies: 26
Views: 2819

Re: NY Federal Reserve President Signals Higher US Interest Rates

I've read that raising interest rates in the US while they are negative abroad could have unexpected consequences. Apparently it's never happened before. I am no expert on monetary policy, but I thought one reason to raise interest rates was to slow inflation. Inflation is not exactly high right no...
by dkturner
Fri May 06, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 3163

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Of all the actively managed funds in which one could invest, Wellington seems to be one of the best. Year after year, the managers display a superior knowledge of stockpicking. They shouldn't be able to do it, but they do. Perhaps comparing LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (which is forced to hold Tota...
by dkturner
Fri May 06, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The keys to improving the odds of active management success
Replies: 12
Views: 1049

Re: The keys to improving the odds of active management success

A pity they didn't have another chart of "percentage of Vanguard active funds whose returns beat the closest-matching Vanguard index fund." That's not sarcasm, I'd like to see the actual answer. I guess I can find one data point myself. I don't know how it will turn out. I will compare al...
by dkturner
Wed May 04, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 3163

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Since LifeStrategy Moderate Growth was "fixed" it has produced an annualized return of 8.07% (12/31/11 - 5/3/16). STAR's annualized return has been 9.03% for this period and Wellington has produced an annualized return of 10.26%. The LifeStrategy funds are lousy funds overseen by a group ...
by dkturner
Wed May 04, 2016 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 3163

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

LifeStrategy Moderate Growth is a horrible fund. The STAR fund, which has about the same equity/fixed income allocation, has performed about 100 basis points per year better since the LifeStrategy inception. It was a horrible fund because it had a horrible component, the market-mistiming tactical A...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any real data for Vanguard Active Managed Funds Compared to their Passive Funds?
Replies: 2
Views: 334

Re: Any real data for Vanguard Active Managed Funds Compared to their Passive Funds?

Edward Tower, a professor of economics at Duke, has studied this subject and written a lengthy paper on it. Try a search of "Tower Vanguard actively managed funds" and you should find a link to his paper.
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 3163

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Moderate Growth. One Fund Solution. Keep It Simple :happy LifeStrategy Moderate Growth is a horrible fund. The STAR fund, which has about the same equity/fixed income allocation, has performed about 100 basis points per year better since the LifeStrategy inception. We use the LifeStrategy Moderate ...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meaning of the label Market Timing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2600

Re: Meaning of the label Market Timing?

The definition of "market timing" varies from Boglehead to Boglehead. A fundamentalist uses the term to disparage anyone who makes any adjustment to a portfolio - other than rebalancing, of course. More liberal Bogleheads, including The Man Himself, allow for periodic reallocations, based ...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2350

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

Also, PRIMECAP is magic. And, unfortunately, closed. :( PRIMECAP isn't closed, it just has restricted entry and restrictions on the amount of annual additions. What am I missing then? The availability of PRIMECAP shares, and shares of most other closed funds, is governed by the level of service eac...
by dkturner
Mon May 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2350

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

CashBalance wrote:
toto238 wrote:
Also, PRIMECAP is magic.


And, unfortunately, closed. :(


PRIMECAP isn't closed, it just has restricted entry and restrictions on the amount of annual additions.
by dkturner
Mon May 02, 2016 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2468

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

The Russell stock market indices have consistent data going back to 1979. That's a period of only 37 years. Those 37 years contain two periods when common stocks declined in value by more than 50% and periods when common stocks soared in value by hundreds of percentage points. For this 37 year perio...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 27, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Dividend Funds
Replies: 14
Views: 1320

Re: International Dividend Funds

...Could these funds help lower risk in bear markets because of the dividend component?... Did they "help lower risk" in the last bear market in domestic stocks? Blue, Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund, VHDYX. 54% drop. Orange, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX. 52% drop...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the boglehead bias against options
Replies: 90
Views: 10837

Re:

What I really want to know is: So how do Bogleheads deal with all the crooked markets, thoroughly screwed globalization / outsourcing policies, etc? I expect that many of the Bogleheads aren't unduly bothered about dealing with crooked markets or thoroughly screwed globalization / outsourcing. Thos...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 5076

Re: Answer to questions

... Mr. Bogle and I aren't taking a great deal of risk with our actively managed funds. There is still risk in using this versus pure passive/indexing. As others have said, fund management will change, and like other prominent actively managed funds, they to shall revert to the mean at some point. ...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 5076

Re: Answer to questions

dkturner: The same was said about the Magellen fund and it's "endless" crushing of the S&P... which did eventually end and left many investors in a tough spot with all of those capital gains tied up in a losing fund. Sell, tax consequences. Stay, continue to substantially lag behind t...
by dkturner
Sun Apr 17, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 5076

Re: Past performance

dkturner: Do you think Wellington's past performance will continue into the future. If so, why? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Taylor, let me answer your questions with a couple of questions. Do you think that a combination of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (65%) and the Vanguard I-T Bond Index Fun...

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