Search found 1168 matches

by dkturner
Thu May 19, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes
Replies: 3
Views: 731

Re: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes

The new Federal regs for money market funds went into effect in April as far as I know. The basic aspects of these rules were discussed in a prior thread. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=178623 Vanguard decided it was necessary to change our sweep accounts to the Federal M...
by dkturner
Wed May 18, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?
Replies: 8
Views: 1069

Re: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?

The wiki has a detailed history. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_target_retirement_funds Summary: launched 2003. 2006 increased stock allocation 10-20%. 2010 changed intl funds from 3 portfolios to one broad index, increased intl stock allocation 10-20%. 2013 added intl bonds, making them ...
by dkturner
Mon May 16, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active
Replies: 45
Views: 3557

Re: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active

I think Intermediate-Term Bond Index (with 50/50 corporate and government bonds) is the an excellent choice which overcomes some of the downsides of TBM fund. +1 I use Intermediate-Term Bond Index instead of TBM. Is any one concerned with the Intermediate Bond Index's (VBILX) longer duration of 6.5...
by dkturner
Thu May 12, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Total Return
Replies: 9
Views: 2702

Re: S&P 500 Total Return

Not sure what you're looking for, but here's annual returns. I guessing that's too easy. :happy http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Paul Paul, Just for laughs compare what the Stern NYU chart shows for the S&P 500 for the last 15 years to what Vanguard say...
by dkturner
Wed May 11, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 6 — The Value Premium and Inflation
Replies: 7
Views: 1644

Re: Classic Bernstein 6 — The Value Premium and Inflation

Just to add more current charts to this thread, updated to 2015, showing the decline in the value premium (at left), corresponding with the decline in inflation since the 1970s (at right). If Mr. Bernstein’s formulation is correct, we’re not likely to see a very robust value premium again (or any v...
by dkturner
Mon May 09, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in consumer defensive
Replies: 15
Views: 1374

Re: Why invest in consumer defensive

Vanguard has a whole portfolio of sector funds which investors can use to overweight specific sectors of the market for a variety of reasons. To me the most obvious use of sector funds is to create a portfolio than underweights an economic sector in which an investor's human capital is invested. You...
by dkturner
Mon May 09, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NY Federal Reserve President Signals Higher US Interest Rates
Replies: 26
Views: 2504

Re: NY Federal Reserve President Signals Higher US Interest Rates

I've read that raising interest rates in the US while they are negative abroad could have unexpected consequences. Apparently it's never happened before. I am no expert on monetary policy, but I thought one reason to raise interest rates was to slow inflation. Inflation is not exactly high right no...
by dkturner
Fri May 06, 2016 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 2905

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Of all the actively managed funds in which one could invest, Wellington seems to be one of the best. Year after year, the managers display a superior knowledge of stockpicking. They shouldn't be able to do it, but they do. Perhaps comparing LifeStrategy Moderate Growth (which is forced to hold Tota...
by dkturner
Fri May 06, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The keys to improving the odds of active management success
Replies: 12
Views: 871

Re: The keys to improving the odds of active management success

A pity they didn't have another chart of "percentage of Vanguard active funds whose returns beat the closest-matching Vanguard index fund." That's not sarcasm, I'd like to see the actual answer. I guess I can find one data point myself. I don't know how it will turn out. I will compare al...
by dkturner
Wed May 04, 2016 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 2905

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Since LifeStrategy Moderate Growth was "fixed" it has produced an annualized return of 8.07% (12/31/11 - 5/3/16). STAR's annualized return has been 9.03% for this period and Wellington has produced an annualized return of 10.26%. The LifeStrategy funds are lousy funds overseen by a group ...
by dkturner
Wed May 04, 2016 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 2905

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

LifeStrategy Moderate Growth is a horrible fund. The STAR fund, which has about the same equity/fixed income allocation, has performed about 100 basis points per year better since the LifeStrategy inception. It was a horrible fund because it had a horrible component, the market-mistiming tactical A...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any real data for Vanguard Active Managed Funds Compared to their Passive Funds?
Replies: 2
Views: 291

Re: Any real data for Vanguard Active Managed Funds Compared to their Passive Funds?

Edward Tower, a professor of economics at Duke, has studied this subject and written a lengthy paper on it. Try a search of "Tower Vanguard actively managed funds" and you should find a link to his paper.
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?
Replies: 33
Views: 2905

Re: LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund or its components?

Moderate Growth. One Fund Solution. Keep It Simple :happy LifeStrategy Moderate Growth is a horrible fund. The STAR fund, which has about the same equity/fixed income allocation, has performed about 100 basis points per year better since the LifeStrategy inception. We use the LifeStrategy Moderate ...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meaning of the label Market Timing?
Replies: 34
Views: 2349

Re: Meaning of the label Market Timing?

The definition of "market timing" varies from Boglehead to Boglehead. A fundamentalist uses the term to disparage anyone who makes any adjustment to a portfolio - other than rebalancing, of course. More liberal Bogleheads, including The Man Himself, allow for periodic reallocations, based ...
by dkturner
Tue May 03, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2160

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

Also, PRIMECAP is magic. And, unfortunately, closed. :( PRIMECAP isn't closed, it just has restricted entry and restrictions on the amount of annual additions. What am I missing then? The availability of PRIMECAP shares, and shares of most other closed funds, is governed by the level of service eac...
by dkturner
Mon May 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard pushing active management?
Replies: 18
Views: 2160

Re: Vanguard pushing active management?

CashBalance wrote:
toto238 wrote:
Also, PRIMECAP is magic.


And, unfortunately, closed. :(


PRIMECAP isn't closed, it just has restricted entry and restrictions on the amount of annual additions.
by dkturner
Mon May 02, 2016 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market
Replies: 26
Views: 2241

Re: The long term volatility of value stocks vs the market

The Russell stock market indices have consistent data going back to 1979. That's a period of only 37 years. Those 37 years contain two periods when common stocks declined in value by more than 50% and periods when common stocks soared in value by hundreds of percentage points. For this 37 year perio...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 27, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Dividend Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 974

Re: International Dividend Funds

...Could these funds help lower risk in bear markets because of the dividend component?... Did they "help lower risk" in the last bear market in domestic stocks? Blue, Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund, VHDYX. 54% drop. Orange, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX. 52% drop...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: the boglehead bias against options
Replies: 90
Views: 10376

Re:

What I really want to know is: So how do Bogleheads deal with all the crooked markets, thoroughly screwed globalization / outsourcing policies, etc? I expect that many of the Bogleheads aren't unduly bothered about dealing with crooked markets or thoroughly screwed globalization / outsourcing. Thos...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 4739

Re: Answer to questions

... Mr. Bogle and I aren't taking a great deal of risk with our actively managed funds. There is still risk in using this versus pure passive/indexing. As others have said, fund management will change, and like other prominent actively managed funds, they to shall revert to the mean at some point. ...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 18, 2016 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 4739

Re: Answer to questions

dkturner: The same was said about the Magellen fund and it's "endless" crushing of the S&P... which did eventually end and left many investors in a tough spot with all of those capital gains tied up in a losing fund. Sell, tax consequences. Stay, continue to substantially lag behind t...
by dkturner
Sun Apr 17, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 4739

Re: Past performance

dkturner: Do you think Wellington's past performance will continue into the future. If so, why? Thank you and best wishes. Taylor Taylor, let me answer your questions with a couple of questions. Do you think that a combination of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (65%) and the Vanguard I-T Bond Index Fun...
by dkturner
Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle's Folly"
Replies: 28
Views: 4739

Re: "Bogle's Folly"

Not to diminish all this gushing over the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, but let's keep things in perspective. When Mr. Bogle left Wellington Management to start the Vanguard Group he took the long established Wellington Fund with him. As per Morningstar, since the establishment of the Vanguard 500 Index ...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for an online tool that compares mutual fund/portfolios after expenses
Replies: 6
Views: 655

Re: Looking for an online tool that compares mutual fund/portfolios after expenses

Does anybody know of a free site or calculator that allows you to compare fund/portfolio performance after costs-ie fees are factored in? Most sites seem to compare fund performance before fees are calculated. We often talk about performance after fees, but it is not as dramatic to look at a graph ...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOL fiduciary rule, will anything change?
Replies: 15
Views: 1514

Re: DOL fiduciary rule, will anything change?

I wonder how many funds might have to shut down because FAs won't be able to recommend them as being in the client's best interest. But Registered Investment Advisors, who have been subject to the fiduciary standard for decades, have frequently recommended all kinds of high expense, poorly performi...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 13, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?
Replies: 20
Views: 1354

Re: Are Dividends a Substitute for Value?

.... but if you want to load up on the "value factor" (for whatever reason), there are better ways to do that then using dividends. I think so too, although there are sometimes exceptions. For instance, I'd rather have Vanguard High Dividend Yield than Vanguard Large Value if I wanted mor...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 12, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 54
Views: 4496

Re: Rebalancing

What is it that Jack and I don't understand? I have a fund like that. Maybe you didn't understand that one doesn't need to automatically reinvest distributions? We haven't since 2010 (dumb move - should have played the momentum) and still have a substantial gain. I'm not complaining, just curious a...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 12, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 54
Views: 4496

Re: Rebalancing

* Therefore, it is important to maintain our asset-allocation plan by rebalancing when a fund deviates (perhaps 5% or more). Due to strong market appreciation since 2009 our taxable accounts hold positions in TSM that are way in excess of our IPS guidlines. If we were to rebalance the combined fede...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 11, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing in a taxable account isn't so simple
Replies: 54
Views: 4496

Re: "Reading Room" by Eric Haas

Neomutiny06: Rebalancing a portfolio is a controversial subject. You will find 16 articles about it in Eric Haas's " Reading Room. " http://www.altruistfa.com/readingroomarticles.htm#Rebalancing When experts disagree it is often because it makes no foreseeable difference. Best wishes. Tay...
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios
Replies: 41
Views: 4886

Re: Burton G. Malkiel - New advice for bond portfolios

Absorb the contradictory advice. Look at some data for yourself , don't just look where other people are pointing. Decide for yourself whether you, for example, feel that volatility is risk or not. When you feel well-informed (well, nobody ever reaches that state)... when you feel that you've taken...
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 42
Views: 3219

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

So let's say I've got a 50/50 portfolio. Stocks surge and suddenly I'm 60/40. My risk has increased, right? Well, the probable volatility of my portfolio has increased, but do I have a higher risk of running out of money? No! I've gained MORE money from the rising stocks, Actually, no, you haven't....
by dkturner
Sat Apr 09, 2016 6:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 42
Views: 3219

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

So let's say I've got a 50/50 portfolio. Stocks surge and suddenly I'm 60/40. My risk has increased, right? Well, the probable volatility of my portfolio has increased, but do I have a higher risk of running out of money? No! I've gained MORE money from the rising stocks, Actually, no, you haven't....
by dkturner
Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Keys to Active Management
Replies: 10
Views: 1139

Re: The Keys to Active Management

hlfo718 wrote:I have no problem paying index fund like fees to Vanguard's active funds such as their Equity Income, Wellington, and Wellesley Funds.


+1.

Vanguard's low cost actively managed funds (both equity and fixed income) certainly have helped our returns over the last 20+ years.
by dkturner
Thu Apr 07, 2016 5:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?
Replies: 22
Views: 2313

Re: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?

Inflation "died" in 1981, but it took decades for investors to accept its multigenerational decline. As inflation begins to increase again it may well take a very long time for the average investor to accept the fact that the future isn't what it used to be. Personally I have always been s...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New LD rules driving index investing?
Replies: 2
Views: 359

Re: New LD rules driving index investing?

Even the slowest to learn brokers seem to have figured out that the name of the game is increasingly tied to the use of ETFs. That's the good news. The bad news is that most of them have no clue that ETFs are simply index funds in disguise.
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 3762

Re: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?

Because as Vanguard is happy to tell you "Over the past ten years, 95% of Vanguard actively managed funds have outperformed", which is why they have nearly $1 trillion in actively managed assets, about one-third of their total. Just don't ask "outperformed what?" because I don't...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spiva's international scorecard for 2015
Replies: 4
Views: 461

Re: Spiva's international scorecard for 2015

Larry, what's your take on the 10 return of asset weighted bond funds vs. their benchmarks?
by dkturner
Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 3762

Re: "The Biggest Mistake"

What say you? Leave Wellesley alone or change it? JW-Retired: I would change it to an all indexed portfolio. Results are often luck and managers change. For example: On December 31, 1999, Wellesley (VWINX) had a cumulative 5-year return of 81.8% ; Life Cycle Conservative Growth (VSCGX) had a cumula...
by dkturner
Mon Apr 04, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?
Replies: 43
Views: 3762

Re: Why own (non-index) mutual funds at all?

Wondering how many Bhs own funds that are outside of the standard low-cost index (including bond index) funds? And if so, what's your logic, based on the generally accepted principle that these funds won't outperform index/tracking funds over the long term. I often wonder why Vanguard even offers m...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Listen to Jack on this one [prefer Intermediate-term bond index]
Replies: 48
Views: 5984

Re: Listen to Jack on this one

I agree with Jack when he says you don't need international and I also agree when he says all you need is one fund (if it is in a 401K or IRA) which is the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund. Having said that, I currently hold two funds in my 401K which is the Vanguard Institutional Index Fund and the Ba...
by dkturner
Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2081

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

... but it does not show all the individual transactions for the year, only for that month, and then an aggregate summary of the year as I said above. Each of the monthly statements are easily available with all the transactions for that month, but they don't show on my year end statement. I don't ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2081

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

Question: We have opted to receive our monthly mutual fund statements electronically, with a single year end physical copy. We do this to receive a 12 month physical copy which lists ALL transactions for all mutual funds for the entire year. The Vanguard brokerage account monthly statements only li...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 31, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?
Replies: 14
Views: 2081

Re: Simplified account structure for Vanguard clients?

I'm now forced to use a "settlement account" - I used to be able to direct deposit directly into funds, now I can only DD into the settlement account, and then have to divide (or setup automatic investment amounts) on that account (or my linked bank account). I used to be able to hold a S...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 28, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?
Replies: 22
Views: 2279

Re: Why do classic portfolios need to be adjusted in 2016?

A long-term strategy that's revised every few years isn't a long-term strategy. It's that simple. It's an intermediate-term strategy or a short-term strategy. I don't have any great answers myself, but strategies that are based on long-term data, and that explicitly tell adopters to be prepared to ...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 27, 2016 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to do with Roth IRA (Unique Circumstance)
Replies: 17
Views: 1418

Re: What to do with Roth IRA (Unique Circumstance)

Would it help if you increased your TSP contributions and use the funds in your ROTH IRA to supplement your living expenses?
by dkturner
Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"
Replies: 45
Views: 5141

Re: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"

QuietWealth: Wow...this was eye-opening and thought provoking. Is this a fair takeaway from your data? The 'net net' is that an 80/20 portfolio yielded ~5.5% return after inflation. The 'net net' is that a 60/40 portfolio yielded a ~4.5% return after inflation [the 4.5% is the approximate midpoint ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"
Replies: 45
Views: 5141

Re: The Rarely Noted "Real Returns"

What really jumped out at me was that with an 80/20 portfolio there's was virtually no difference in real returns between the two periods.
by dkturner
Tue Mar 22, 2016 5:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 6556

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

If a company does buybacks, that decreases the number of outstanding shares and your shares increase in value. However, if the company then uses those buyback shares to pay their employees, the number of outstanding shares goes back up, and your increased value disappears. On the other hand, if the...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the point of a dividend?
Replies: 92
Views: 6556

Re: What is the point of a dividend?

The most basic valuation model is the dividend discount model. It takes all future dividends and discounts them. Stocks without dividends can't be valued using this model. Think about it carefully if a company has a policy of never returning cash then the value of their stock should be zero. Becaus...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bond funds do you use, and why?
Replies: 55
Views: 4049

Re: What bond funds do you use, and why?

I use the Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund as the "bond" fund in my rollover IRA. I like its bond portfolio, which is higher in quality than other Vanguard corporate bond fund offerings. I think it's duration is more appropriate than the duration of the Vanguard Long-Term Investment Grade Fu...

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