Search found 1215 matches

by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

However, broad market index funds are not fickle. They have done exactly what I have expected them to do, year after year, rain or shine. (OK, in 2002 Vanguard Total Bond made 8.82% while the index made 10.75%, and in Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index made 5.39% while the index made 6.97%... that so...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8665

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

We also are talking about real (inflation adjusted) rates of return. If you looked at bond returns from 1946-1982, they probably don't look so bad. What is horrible is when you factor in the ravages of inflation. A whole of inflation was going on during that time period. You had rising inflation an...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports
Replies: 5
Views: 601

Re: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports

Yep I agree there can be an advantage to when you pay taxes due to the irregular tax quarters relative to calendar quarters - but I'm curious how those irregular quarters came to be? A little googling didn't yield a simple answer for me. Perhaps it's just best to not look a gift horse in the mouth?...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8665

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early in his predictions about rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve gradually unwinds its interest rate repression, as Malkiel call it. I have concerns about bonds as well. Going from memory here, but it seems that bonds lost about 5...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8665

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

Just looking for some thoughts on Malkiel's reasoning on why to not buy bonds. He says we need to look at history. Here is the video clip: https://youtu.be/Go2CnKgyonU He mentions it at the end of the video, around the 5 minute mark. The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early i...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 18437

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start inj 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incr...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 18437

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

But I agree that you don't need $70K/yr to meet "basic needs". That is a bit ridiculous, when the median family income in the US is less than $52K/yr (and that is FAMILY income....assuming children to feed, house, clothe, educate, etc). Certainly way more than 50% of American families hav...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley dividends
Replies: 6
Views: 966

Re: Wellesley dividends

Fiddle-Bow wrote:Does anyone know when VWIAX and VPMAX will have their distributions for December?


I do.
by dkturner
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Re: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?

My wife and I have a joint Vanguard Advantage account that holds only Vanguard mutual funds and was converted to the new combined account format earlier this year. The statements contain the caption "Assets listed in this statement are held by Vanguard Brokerage Services (VBS), a division of Va...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Math Wrong?
Replies: 25
Views: 2403

Re: Passive Investing Math Wrong?

Sorry don't have time to read the whole thread, but clearly pure indexing can be suboptimal and thus the math can be wrong. That's easily shown by simply looking at the performance of the Russell 2000. A passive index fund in small caps. It underperformed for decades the very similar CRSP 6-10 beca...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question - Quarterly Statements
Replies: 11
Views: 1309

Re: Question - Quarterly Statements

Can't you simply redeem the mutual funds in your Roth IRA and rollover the proceeds to a new Roth IRA at Vanguard?
by dkturner
Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: pre vs. post tax in calculating overall asset allocation (not fund placement)
Replies: 12
Views: 1068

Re: pre vs. post tax in calculating overall asset allocation (not fund placement)

Rainmaker has a $1000 balance in his 401k and $1000 in his ROTH. If he is in the 25% bracket his AA is 750/1000 or 43/57. The reason is that the $1000 in the 401k is not all his. Twentyfive percent belongs to the Guv because he never paid income tax on it. On the other hand all of the ROTH is his b...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?
Replies: 32
Views: 2699

Re: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?

...I'd actually bet the answer is likely "yes, the SEC has looked at the impacts if investors start fleeing such funds in masse"... SEC Proposes Liquidity Management Rules For Mutual Funds And ETFs https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2015-201.html The liquidity proposals contained in th...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Prices Before Closing
Replies: 16
Views: 809

Re: Determining Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Prices Before Closing

The closing price of VWITX/VWIUX will be exactly the same as it was yesterday (last trading day), plus or minus a very few cents. True, but the OP is interested in determining whether it's likely to be a plus or a minus prior to 5:30 p.m. DST, when mutual funds reveal their end of day share prices....
by dkturner
Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover
Replies: 29
Views: 2769

Re: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover

I don't understand Pedersen's paper. I find it frustrating that he says that "Looking at all equities in CRSP from 1926 to 2015 in panel A the average annual turnover is 7.6% per year," but, as far as I can tell, he does not say in so many words what the cost of that turnover is. Did I mi...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Highly compensated employee limits - 401k
Replies: 29
Views: 2600

Re: Highly compensated employee limits - 401k

I started a new job about a year ago. I will max out my 401(k) at $18,000 in 2016. My boss, the CFO of the company, mentioned that as a highly compensated employee (I will gross $121,000 this year), I may have some of that $18,000 refunded back to me and it will be taxable income. I was reading abo...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active vs Passive
Replies: 30
Views: 2704

Re: Active vs Passive

But taking the management fees and expense fees out, how many managers beat the index? 50% If you buy 30 stocks you may beat the market. At least you don't have the cost hurdle, so you are already ahead of the game. On the down side, I predict that in one year you will have to remove 4 or 5 stocks ...
by dkturner
Sat Oct 08, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ML to end commissions per Fiduciary Rule
Replies: 11
Views: 2106

Re: ML to end commissions per Fiduciary Rule

*3!4!/5! wrote:I wonder what are the implications for Merrill Edge.


The article mentions that Merrill Lynch Edge platform will be available for any customers who won't agree to pay an AUM fee, and a robo advisor option will probably be added to the Edge platform at a later date.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield
Replies: 10
Views: 778

Re: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield

For instance, considering annual rebalancing (and this is not considering risk aversion, money spend date and all of that), one could have a rule such as: Stock yield > 2 x bond yield: 100% Stocks, 0% Bonds 2 x Bond Yield > Stock Yield > Bond Yield: 75% Stocks, 25% Bonds Stock Yield = Bond Yield: 5...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1647

Re: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio

Nisi, since you knew that (1) the SirHorace portfolio was very heavily invested in high quality bonds and (2) we have been in a bull market for bonds for the last 34 years wouldn't you be more interested in investigating how the assets in the SirHorace portfolio performed in the 34 years prior to 19...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 226
Views: 29516

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I figured a one year update was in order and would perhaps provide a nice counterbalance to the 100% equity threads popping up like mushrooms around here. My portfolio from 9/1/2015 to 9/1/2016: +2.6% Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth (my benchmark): +8.4% My performance compared to benchmark: -5.8% My ...
by dkturner
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3766

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

No need to delve into conspiracy theories on this one. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate than bond interest because corporations can't deduct the dividends they pay to their shareholders but they are allowed to deduct the interest they pay to their bondholders. Sort of a stab at minimizing the spe...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low P/E Ratio vs SP500
Replies: 13
Views: 1109

Re: low P/E Ratio vs SP500

I think your premise is wrong to begin with... but regardless..... It really should not be a surprising, it has not been a good decade for value stocks. If you split the market in half between value/growth, and P/E is a big part of that style distinction, growth has been on top. Morningstar Chart h...
by dkturner
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRAs and the federal estate tax
Replies: 2
Views: 338

IRAs and the federal estate tax

If a decedent's IRA account is subject to the federal estate tax because it has a non-spousal beneficiary it is also subject to federal income taxes when the beneficiary receives distributions from the IRA. Because of this "double taxation" situation the beneficiary is entitled to an incom...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E excluding cash
Replies: 6
Views: 579

Re: P/E excluding cash

I think part of the problem is that US tax laws right now make it so this cash more or less unavailable for use in operations without major tax costs. In that respect, it's hard to classify it as an asset. It's an asset alright, but you have to adjust the $ amount/value of overseas cash by the tax ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2338

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When I read these threads arguing about the existence, or non existence, of a value premium I take a look at the return of our, value tilted, portfolio and compare it to the return of a comparably invested "three fund" index fund portfolio. Our records don't go back 23 years, but we do hav...
by dkturner
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?
Replies: 38
Views: 4627

Re: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?

The return on savings is dependent on supply and demand. If more and more people are saving more and more money, there are relatively fewer profitable opportunities for that money to be put to use, so the returns decline. I think that a surplus of savings relative to uses for that savings has lead ...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?
Replies: 75
Views: 7769

Re: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?

AlohaJoe wrote:
YoungBoglehead wrote:But.... is that not efficient/productive? Truly?


Did you run the numbers on what you do versus buying immediately? What do the numbers say?


You really need to answer this question if you want to get a sense of how much value, if any, your waiting for buying opportunities is adding.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1692

Re: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks

livesoft wrote:I always laugh at recommendations. Malkiel has recommended a lot of things. So what?


Malkiel probably isn't as astute as you and I are, but let's give him a fair hearing. After all he's a former Vanguard director and is reputed to know a thing or two about investing.
by dkturner
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2114

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

JoMoney wrote:
dkturner wrote:... Being a Bhead (as I see it) I believe that markets are efficient (except when they're not) ...

:shock: :D Yeah, that seems to be the kind of thinking I see a lot of on bogleheads.


I couldn't find the tongue-in-cheek smilie.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2114

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

If you CHANGE the percentages based on what you think the market will do going forward, that is market timing. For instance, if he changes his AA to 10% REITS and 30% EM, because he thinks REITS are over-valued and EM is under-valued, that is market-timing. This is probably true, but what differenc...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2114

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2114

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund
Replies: 13
Views: 2054

Re: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund

mickeyd wrote:Looks like another lame VG experiment in trying to be everything to everyone. Does the investment world really need another niche fund?


It's Vanguard's only international value index fund. International value is hardly a "niche".
by dkturner
Sun Jul 03, 2016 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 153
Views: 15462

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

Based on historical data, the average S&P500 real return was 6.62% and for small value it was 10.50%. For every starting date, small value outperformed. Bogleheads: According to Vanguard, during the past 10 years the S&P 500 Index Fund (VFIAX) outperformed Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fun...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6060

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Lobster, Mr. Buffett has commented several times on buybacks and I believe most recently on IBM and their repurchase program. He believes IBM did the right thing. He is a very firm believer in buying stocks below intrinsic value. He has never said that buybacks are good in general. In one of letter...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?
Replies: 35
Views: 1628

Re: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?

Help me "real world" this value companies vs. dividend companies thing. If I'm a Vanguard customer and I want to value tilt my portfolio by chasing low p/e or p/b I could choose the Vanguard Value Index Fund. I could also choose to value tilt my portfolio using the, less efficient, higher...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?
Replies: 35
Views: 1628

Re: Rationale for Dividend-seeking: Playing catch-up on opportunity lost?

[Alex_686"]I am in the "dividends do not matter camp." Theoretically the argument is water tight and the empirical evidence is strong. The evidence for dividends is that it signals confident managers and value companies. If value companies tend to do better than growth companies then ...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 9138

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

nisi wrote: I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. There is a wide gulf in what bonds were yielding in Ben Graham's time and now. Back then, intermediate term quality bonds provided both significant real inflation adjusted positive yields plus ...
by dkturner
Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"
Replies: 68
Views: 9138

Re: Bogle says "You don't need bonds ?"

I've been reading Benjamin Graham's 1973 The Intelligent Investor and finding it fascinating. It's hard to summarize fairly particularly when I'm in a hurry and reading an ebook edition that doesn't allow me to copy and paste, and what he says is subtle. But first let me dispose of an obvious objec...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 13, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard is touting "beat the market," active management
Replies: 63
Views: 6313

Re: Vanguard is touting "beat the market," active management

...They're a mutual fund company with a goal of attracting more AUM. That usually involves putting a spin on things. Falsehoods we shouldn't stand for, but I don't see any. Again, which principles are being violated? Or relatedly, which positions do you think are not credible? Thanks again for the ...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks
Replies: 28
Views: 1300

Re: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks

In practice how would this taxation work? I can understand the system if a shareholder tenders shares directly to the issuer, but how would it work if a company simply buys back its stock at random on the open market?
by dkturner
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current
Replies: 18
Views: 2360

Re: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current

I thought this was interesting http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html $100 invested in 3 month Treasury Bills in 1928 would grow to $1,977.91 $100 invested in 10 year Treasury Bonds in 1928 would grow to $7,061.89 $100 invested in stocks in 1928 would grow to $29...
by dkturner
Mon Jun 06, 2016 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current
Replies: 18
Views: 2360

Re: Annual Returns on Stock, T.Bonds and T.Bills: 1928 - Current

I thought this was interesting http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html $100 invested in 3 month Treasury Bills in 1928 would grow to $1,977.91 $100 invested in 10 year Treasury Bonds in 1928 would grow to $7,061.89 $100 invested in stocks in 1928 would grow to $29...
by dkturner
Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k rollover to IRA ERISA protections
Replies: 3
Views: 332

Re: 401k rollover to IRA ERISA protections

Chow, if you Google "IRA ERISA protection" you will find that the protection of IRAs from the claims of creditors are limited to $1 million by federal law (there are exceptions which allow for greater federal protection). State laws frequently provide higher, or unlimited, protection in ad...
by dkturner
Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)
Replies: 14
Views: 1702

Re: madsinger monthly report (May 2016)

Does anyone have a analysis of why Wellington and Wellesley have done so well over the last 10-15 years? Is it purely that they invested smartly in corporate bonds or are the some other tricks they are using as well? Just curious... This isn't a scientific analysis, but it would seem that the manag...
by dkturner
Mon May 30, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth Taking?
Replies: 20
Views: 2694

Re: Classic Bernstein 8 — Is Credit Risk Ever Worth It?

Totally agree on this good point. I bought Vanguard's HYB fund (which avoids the worst of junk bonds) during the worst of the collapse in 2008-9 at which time the spread to Treasuries of similar maturities was greater than 11%. I sold some of my GNMA fund at the time which had held up beautifully d...
by dkturner
Thu May 19, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes
Replies: 3
Views: 1196

Re: Vanguard Sweep Account Changes

The new Federal regs for money market funds went into effect in April as far as I know. The basic aspects of these rules were discussed in a prior thread. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=178623 Vanguard decided it was necessary to change our sweep accounts to the Federal M...
by dkturner
Wed May 18, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?
Replies: 8
Views: 1270

Re: When is the last time Vanguard altered target date allocations?

The wiki has a detailed history. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_target_retirement_funds Summary: launched 2003. 2006 increased stock allocation 10-20%. 2010 changed intl funds from 3 portfolios to one broad index, increased intl stock allocation 10-20%. 2013 added intl bonds, making them ...
by dkturner
Mon May 16, 2016 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active
Replies: 45
Views: 4250

Re: Bond Index Funds - The turning tide from active

I think Intermediate-Term Bond Index (with 50/50 corporate and government bonds) is the an excellent choice which overcomes some of the downsides of TBM fund. +1 I use Intermediate-Term Bond Index instead of TBM. Is any one concerned with the Intermediate Bond Index's (VBILX) longer duration of 6.5...

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