Search found 1231 matches

by dkturner
Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4730

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

In that passage, Buffett's failure to mention TIPS, even briefly in an aside, makes it suspect. That failure to even mention TIPS is something I see a lot, not just from Buffett, and frankly I think people leave it out because it complicates the simplistic story they want to present. If high inflat...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4730

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

What is the alternative? Between 1941 and 1981 Treasury bills provided annualized, inflation adjusted, returns of -1.2%. Five year Treasuries -1.4%. Ten year Treasuries -2.3%. Looks like even very short-term fixed income could be a losing strategy. What about equities? Between 1941 and 1981 the S&a...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: C corp investment strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 634

Re: C corp investment strategy

I can't speak to C-corp taxation strategies, but I would be sleepless with so much riding on one company They own a business. The big Apple position is like a very successful division. Why would business people stay up nights worrying about the possibility of a successful division of their company ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Micheal Kitces Rising Retirement Glidepath Still have legs
Replies: 47
Views: 3760

Re: Does Micheal Kitces Rising Retirement Glidepath Still have legs

Despite generous pensions that are more than enough for our lifestyle, plus the fact we can/do reinvest our end of year RMD's; we have lowered our Glidepath from a conservative 60/40 to the current 40/60 AA model. (Which is considered a bit high in stocks for our ages, mid 70's, but feels ok for us...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 4625

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

For U.S. Equity VEIRX and VWIAX. No value tilts for international equity.
by dkturner
Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4618

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

People lost a lot of money in the past 10 years (relative to S&P 500) by betting on international stocks. Most foreign currencies have been quite weak vs. the U.S.$ lately. The combination of lower valuation metrics of international equities coupled with lower priced foreign currencies has hist...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4618

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

To put it mildly, it's pretty difficult to predict the future long-term returns of my portfolio. I'll try an settle for something a little easier. I'm content to try and estimate the relative returns of different asset classes over the next decade. Sometimes this is very difficult and at other times...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 7297

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It would seem that there's nothing magic about indexing one's portfolio. The real magic of the superior investment performance of the W&W siblings is quality management coupled with rock bottom management fees. Does this mean that one expects a return premium from taking manager risk? I believe...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 7297

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It would seem that there's nothing magic about indexing one's portfolio. The real magic of the superior investment performance of the W&W siblings is quality management coupled with rock bottom management fees. Does this mean that one expects a return premium from taking manager risk? I believe...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 7297

Re: A Wellesley alternative

What is so fascinating about Wellesley is that it goes against Bogleheads philosophy on almost every level. Managed Too few stocks and they are not diversified Way too many corp bonds. Yet somehow one of the greatest funds of all time. And, Wellington as well? :?: thoughts? j It would seem that the...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 3907

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund?

Bogleheads: In his Little Book of Common Sense Investing Mr. Bogle recommends a 2-fund portfolio: Total Stock Market and Total Bond Market. Investors seem to agree. Each is now the largest stock and bond mutual fund in the world. There is more than one road to Dublin. Best wishes. Taylor That's the...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 7297

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It's also possible to replicate the Wellesley portfolio with a combination of 35-40% Vanguard Equity Income Fund and 60-65% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund. The bond fund will have a shorter duration, which may be a plus since we likely have seen the end of the 35 year bond bull mar...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you changing your AA based on current events?
Replies: 68
Views: 3219

Re: Are you changing your AA based on current events?

No, not based on current events. However this month I did raise my international equity exposure from 12% of my total equity allocation to 20% based on the long period of underperformance of international equities and the weakness of foreign currencies.
by dkturner
Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 3402

Re: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns -- Bogle

Bogleheads: I believe Mr. Bogle is right; Many people do not understand why the cap-weighted total US stock market (TSM) plays such a central role in financial economics. They believe that TSM is just one of many possible US stock portfolios, with no good reason to believe that it is special or sup...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forever Stamps as an Investment?
Replies: 72
Views: 8753

Re: Forever Stamps as an Investment?

Johnnie wrote:Since they first invented Forever stamps I've thought about this every time postage rates go up. Transaction costs are why I never do it. How the heck do you liquidate thousands of dollars of first class stamps!


You sell them on Ebay, at a discount. :oops:
by dkturner
Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2279

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

cinghiale wrote:One question, though: Where, exactly, are the "bright spots" in relation to the performance of the S&P 500 Index?


You have to read the article to find the names of some of the "blind squirrels" who found acorns last year.
by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3462

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

However, broad market index funds are not fickle. They have done exactly what I have expected them to do, year after year, rain or shine. (OK, in 2002 Vanguard Total Bond made 8.82% while the index made 10.75%, and in Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index made 5.39% while the index made 6.97%... that so...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8958

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

We also are talking about real (inflation adjusted) rates of return. If you looked at bond returns from 1946-1982, they probably don't look so bad. What is horrible is when you factor in the ravages of inflation. A whole of inflation was going on during that time period. You had rising inflation an...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports
Replies: 5
Views: 645

Re: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports

Yep I agree there can be an advantage to when you pay taxes due to the irregular tax quarters relative to calendar quarters - but I'm curious how those irregular quarters came to be? A little googling didn't yield a simple answer for me. Perhaps it's just best to not look a gift horse in the mouth?...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8958

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early in his predictions about rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve gradually unwinds its interest rate repression, as Malkiel call it. I have concerns about bonds as well. Going from memory here, but it seems that bonds lost about 5...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 8958

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

Just looking for some thoughts on Malkiel's reasoning on why to not buy bonds. He says we need to look at history. Here is the video clip: https://youtu.be/Go2CnKgyonU He mentions it at the end of the video, around the 5 minute mark. The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early i...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19115

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start inj 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incr...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 19115

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

But I agree that you don't need $70K/yr to meet "basic needs". That is a bit ridiculous, when the median family income in the US is less than $52K/yr (and that is FAMILY income....assuming children to feed, house, clothe, educate, etc). Certainly way more than 50% of American families hav...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley dividends
Replies: 6
Views: 1000

Re: Wellesley dividends

Fiddle-Bow wrote:Does anyone know when VWIAX and VPMAX will have their distributions for December?


I do.
by dkturner
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?
Replies: 3
Views: 387

Re: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?

My wife and I have a joint Vanguard Advantage account that holds only Vanguard mutual funds and was converted to the new combined account format earlier this year. The statements contain the caption "Assets listed in this statement are held by Vanguard Brokerage Services (VBS), a division of Va...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Math Wrong?
Replies: 25
Views: 2448

Re: Passive Investing Math Wrong?

Sorry don't have time to read the whole thread, but clearly pure indexing can be suboptimal and thus the math can be wrong. That's easily shown by simply looking at the performance of the Russell 2000. A passive index fund in small caps. It underperformed for decades the very similar CRSP 6-10 beca...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question - Quarterly Statements
Replies: 11
Views: 1343

Re: Question - Quarterly Statements

Can't you simply redeem the mutual funds in your Roth IRA and rollover the proceeds to a new Roth IRA at Vanguard?
by dkturner
Thu Nov 03, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: pre vs. post tax in calculating overall asset allocation (not fund placement)
Replies: 12
Views: 1105

Re: pre vs. post tax in calculating overall asset allocation (not fund placement)

Rainmaker has a $1000 balance in his 401k and $1000 in his ROTH. If he is in the 25% bracket his AA is 750/1000 or 43/57. The reason is that the $1000 in the 401k is not all his. Twentyfive percent belongs to the Guv because he never paid income tax on it. On the other hand all of the ROTH is his b...
by dkturner
Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?
Replies: 32
Views: 2739

Re: Impact of fleeing index investors on Index Mutual Funds: studies?

...I'd actually bet the answer is likely "yes, the SEC has looked at the impacts if investors start fleeing such funds in masse"... SEC Proposes Liquidity Management Rules For Mutual Funds And ETFs https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2015-201.html The liquidity proposals contained in th...
by dkturner
Wed Oct 19, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Determining Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Prices Before Closing
Replies: 16
Views: 836

Re: Determining Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Prices Before Closing

The closing price of VWITX/VWIUX will be exactly the same as it was yesterday (last trading day), plus or minus a very few cents. True, but the OP is interested in determining whether it's likely to be a plus or a minus prior to 5:30 p.m. DST, when mutual funds reveal their end of day share prices....
by dkturner
Thu Oct 13, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover
Replies: 29
Views: 2843

Re: Cliff Asness - Turning Over Accepted Wisdom with Turnover

I don't understand Pedersen's paper. I find it frustrating that he says that "Looking at all equities in CRSP from 1926 to 2015 in panel A the average annual turnover is 7.6% per year," but, as far as I can tell, he does not say in so many words what the cost of that turnover is. Did I mi...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Highly compensated employee limits - 401k
Replies: 29
Views: 2723

Re: Highly compensated employee limits - 401k

I started a new job about a year ago. I will max out my 401(k) at $18,000 in 2016. My boss, the CFO of the company, mentioned that as a highly compensated employee (I will gross $121,000 this year), I may have some of that $18,000 refunded back to me and it will be taxable income. I was reading abo...
by dkturner
Tue Oct 11, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active vs Passive
Replies: 30
Views: 2751

Re: Active vs Passive

But taking the management fees and expense fees out, how many managers beat the index? 50% If you buy 30 stocks you may beat the market. At least you don't have the cost hurdle, so you are already ahead of the game. On the down side, I predict that in one year you will have to remove 4 or 5 stocks ...
by dkturner
Sat Oct 08, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ML to end commissions per Fiduciary Rule
Replies: 11
Views: 2130

Re: ML to end commissions per Fiduciary Rule

*3!4!/5! wrote:I wonder what are the implications for Merrill Edge.


The article mentions that Merrill Lynch Edge platform will be available for any customers who won't agree to pay an AUM fee, and a robo advisor option will probably be added to the Edge platform at a later date.
by dkturner
Fri Oct 07, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield
Replies: 10
Views: 806

Re: Active Asset Allocation - Stock vs Bond Yield

For instance, considering annual rebalancing (and this is not considering risk aversion, money spend date and all of that), one could have a rule such as: Stock yield > 2 x bond yield: 100% Stocks, 0% Bonds 2 x Bond Yield > Stock Yield > Bond Yield: 75% Stocks, 25% Bonds Stock Yield = Bond Yield: 5...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 12, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1677

Re: An "out of sample" test of the SirHorace "8% Solution" portfolio

Nisi, since you knew that (1) the SirHorace portfolio was very heavily invested in high quality bonds and (2) we have been in a bull market for bonds for the last 34 years wouldn't you be more interested in investigating how the assets in the SirHorace portfolio performed in the 34 years prior to 19...
by dkturner
Mon Sep 05, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 226
Views: 29824

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

I figured a one year update was in order and would perhaps provide a nice counterbalance to the 100% equity threads popping up like mushrooms around here. My portfolio from 9/1/2015 to 9/1/2016: +2.6% Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth (my benchmark): +8.4% My performance compared to benchmark: -5.8% My ...
by dkturner
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3803

Re: Why are bonds taxed more than stocks?

No need to delve into conspiracy theories on this one. Dividends are taxed at a lower rate than bond interest because corporations can't deduct the dividends they pay to their shareholders but they are allowed to deduct the interest they pay to their bondholders. Sort of a stab at minimizing the spe...
by dkturner
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: low P/E Ratio vs SP500
Replies: 13
Views: 1139

Re: low P/E Ratio vs SP500

I think your premise is wrong to begin with... but regardless..... It really should not be a surprising, it has not been a good decade for value stocks. If you split the market in half between value/growth, and P/E is a big part of that style distinction, growth has been on top. Morningstar Chart h...
by dkturner
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IRAs and the federal estate tax
Replies: 2
Views: 338

IRAs and the federal estate tax

If a decedent's IRA account is subject to the federal estate tax because it has a non-spousal beneficiary it is also subject to federal income taxes when the beneficiary receives distributions from the IRA. Because of this "double taxation" situation the beneficiary is entitled to an incom...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E excluding cash
Replies: 6
Views: 602

Re: P/E excluding cash

I think part of the problem is that US tax laws right now make it so this cash more or less unavailable for use in operations without major tax costs. In that respect, it's hard to classify it as an asset. It's an asset alright, but you have to adjust the $ amount/value of overseas cash by the tax ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years
Replies: 32
Views: 2436

Re: LCG vs LCV over the last 23 years

When I read these threads arguing about the existence, or non existence, of a value premium I take a look at the return of our, value tilted, portfolio and compare it to the return of a comparably invested "three fund" index fund portfolio. Our records don't go back 23 years, but we do hav...
by dkturner
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?
Replies: 38
Views: 4705

Re: If everyone saved enough for retirement, wouldn't there just be inflation?

The return on savings is dependent on supply and demand. If more and more people are saving more and more money, there are relatively fewer profitable opportunities for that money to be put to use, so the returns decline. I think that a surplus of savings relative to uses for that savings has lead ...
by dkturner
Wed Jul 20, 2016 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?
Replies: 75
Views: 7881

Re: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?

AlohaJoe wrote:
YoungBoglehead wrote:But.... is that not efficient/productive? Truly?


Did you run the numbers on what you do versus buying immediately? What do the numbers say?


You really need to answer this question if you want to get a sense of how much value, if any, your waiting for buying opportunities is adding.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1726

Re: Malkiel Recommends Preferred Stocks

livesoft wrote:I always laugh at recommendations. Malkiel has recommended a lot of things. So what?


Malkiel probably isn't as astute as you and I are, but let's give him a fair hearing. After all he's a former Vanguard director and is reputed to know a thing or two about investing.
by dkturner
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2177

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

JoMoney wrote:
dkturner wrote:... Being a Bhead (as I see it) I believe that markets are efficient (except when they're not) ...

:shock: :D Yeah, that seems to be the kind of thinking I see a lot of on bogleheads.


I couldn't find the tongue-in-cheek smilie.
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2177

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

If you CHANGE the percentages based on what you think the market will do going forward, that is market timing. For instance, if he changes his AA to 10% REITS and 30% EM, because he thinks REITS are over-valued and EM is under-valued, that is market-timing. This is probably true, but what differenc...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2177

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?
Replies: 39
Views: 2177

Re: Anyone have "revolving tilts"?

For example, perhaps you had a REIT tilt in a tax advantaged account for the last 10 years and it's done quite well. But now the p/e ratio is quite high and this is making you nervous. Since you have a desire for increased risk, willing to deviate from a total market approach and accept you cannot ...
by dkturner
Tue Jul 05, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund
Replies: 13
Views: 2092

Re: Vanguard Int'l Dividend Fund

mickeyd wrote:Looks like another lame VG experiment in trying to be everything to everyone. Does the investment world really need another niche fund?


It's Vanguard's only international value index fund. International value is hardly a "niche".

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