Search found 1254 matches

by dkturner
Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4672

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

I like the Personal Performance screen, which gives the 1,3,5 and 10 year annualized returns of your portfolio and updates them each month. Since I like to tilt my portfolio in different directions from time to time I can accurately determine whether I'm making progress or just spinning my wheels. ...
by dkturner
Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?
Replies: 64
Views: 4672

Re: Favorite Feature of Vanguard Website?

I like the Personal Performance screen, which gives the 1,3,5 and 10 year annualized returns of your portfolio and updates them each month. Since I like to tilt my portfolio in different directions from time to time I can accurately determine whether I'm making progress or just spinning my wheels.
by dkturner
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: What are you doing about withdrawing?
Replies: 31
Views: 4129

Re: Retirees: What are you doing about withdrawing?

We reinvest all of the dividend and interest from our taxable investments and withdraw our RMDs (net of income tax withholding) in early December and have the cash deposited in our taxable money market fund account. We estimate how much of the net RMD amount we will need for the following year to su...
by dkturner
Wed May 31, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Effective July 20, 2017, Vanguard will impose a $10 wire fee on outgoing wire redemptions from nonretirement accounts."
Replies: 28
Views: 2657

Re: "Effective July 20, 2017, Vanguard will impose a $10 wire fee on outgoing wire redemptions from nonretirement accoun

I have a Vanguard Rollover IRA mutual fund account and a Vanguard Brokerage taxable account, which is the recipient of my annual RMDs. On day X my annual RMD is debited from my R/O IRA and sent to the sweep money market fund in my taxable Vanguard Brokerage account, where it arrives on X+2 business ...
by dkturner
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 37683

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

I'll very much miss reading Larry's informative postings on this website. I have been following Larry's comments since at least 1998 and owe much of our success to buying into the Fama/French factor theories Larry articulated so well over the years. Thanks again, Larry for all of the help you have p...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2412

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

Especially with mortgage related bonds, prepayment can be a significant contributor to the lower duration vs maturity. So that risk is already baked into the duration? Principal prepayments are baked into the duration number at current interest rates. When rates rise prepayments tend to slow down, ...
by dkturner
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2412

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

I think I know what maturity and duration are, but just to be sure: ⋅ Maturity: The time between a bond's issue date and the date its principle is paid back. ⋅ Duration: A complex calculation representing a bond's sensitivity to chnges in interest rates. I think it can be approx...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on SPIVA Survey
Replies: 12
Views: 2085

Re: Larry Swedroe on SPIVA Survey

What percentage of index funds trail the returns of their benchmarks over the last 5, 10 and 15 years? Don't all of them, slightly, at least due to their ER? Presumably. Nobody seems to notice that while, say, 90% of actively managed funds underperform their indices nearly all index funds underperf...
by dkturner
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on SPIVA Survey
Replies: 12
Views: 2085

Re: Larry Swedroe on SPIVA Survey

What percentage of index funds trail the returns of their benchmarks over the last 5, 10 and 15 years?
by dkturner
Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's Skating Where Puck Was and Factor Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1547

Re: Bernstein's Skating Where Puck Was and Factor Investing

On a related note, lately I have been wondering if anyone on this board goes out of their way to purchase funds/tilt their portfolio towards the asset classes that have recently performed poorly based on the Callan periodic table (see Wiki). A sort of RBY (really bad year) strategy. Following a poi...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 6682

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

With respect to withdrawal AMOUNT we, like most retirees, spend what we actually need (as we see it, of course). Since we are now both subject to RMD requirements we make our required withdrawals at the end of the year, and spend what we need during the following year. Withdrawing a lump sum at the ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Bond Funds Holding Their Own
Replies: 20
Views: 1643

Re: Active Bond Funds Holding Their Own

One huge difference between equity and bond index funds is that there is very low turnover in equity index funds but generally relatively high turnover in bond index funds. And the high turnover in bond index funds is that each day some bonds mature and have to be swapped out to purchase new issues...
by dkturner
Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years
Replies: 50
Views: 6440

Re: Harvard endowment beats S&P 500 by 2% a year over last 40 years

The Harvard press release from 2014 says that the endowment had an "average annual return" of 12.3% over the past 40 years. See http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/09/harvard-university-endowment-delivers-15-4-return-for-fiscal-year-2014/ . The average annual return of the S&P ...
by dkturner
Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett's Bet"
Replies: 18
Views: 2564

Re: "Buffett's Bet"

Really all you need is the S&P 500 fund. Then perhaps throw in a bond fund during retirement if you need that. So why not just keep it boringly simple? But, I mean even I don't follow Warren's advice. I have 100% of my investments in Total Stock Market, not the S&P 500! :beer The small cap ...
by dkturner
Wed Mar 15, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?
Replies: 51
Views: 5991

Re: Do many banks "secretly" have private deposit insurance covering excess above $250,000?

Nisi, there are numerous banks around the country that participate in an arrangement that uses the acronym CDARS (Certificate of Deposit Account Registry Service). CDARS participating banks open a single certificate of deposit account with CDARS, which takes large deposits from a customer and places...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 6420

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

All of the comments on the unavailability of pre 1993 returns to the average retail investor, and the high expenses of executing purchases and sales of value stocks prior to 1970, or some other date, are irrelevant. I would question that statement. In addition to the mechanics of actually buying an...
by dkturner
Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?
Replies: 85
Views: 6420

Re: What do you expect to achieve with your Tilt?

...Over the last 47 years, portfolios with my tilt toward MCV, SCB, and SCV have earned about 2.4% over the TSM... A nit-pick, but not a completely trivial nit-pick. I don't believe anyone actually used a portfolio like that over the last 47 years, because the terms, theory, and concepts behind the...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed
Replies: 40
Views: 4282

Re: Every 40-yr returns curve of the S&P500 since 1870 graphed

The first month is January 1871 That is a huge number of 40-year periods! :shock: Everything that could possibly happen has probably happened in at least one of those periods. :idea: I submit that anything that happens in the future will just be a repeat of one of the 1272 previous 40-year periods....
by dkturner
Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 18419

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

I'm in my late 30's and have at least 15-20 years until I retire. I'm considering putting any new investment money into my savings account for the next 3-5 years until I see some kind of dip in the market. With an asset allocation "plan" like yours you might want to consider working anoth...
by dkturner
Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1689

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

Nate79 wrote:Why does everyone think in calendar years (Jan-Dec) and not 12 month periods?


Probably because the historical data available to the average amateur investor is based on calendar years.
by dkturner
Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many 10-Year Samples are there?
Replies: 21
Views: 1689

Re: How many 10-Year Samples are there?

Just to be clear: the Shiller data, and any dataset going back "to 1871," is almost certainly based on the Cowles Commission data, Common-Stock Indexes, 1871-1937 . The book can be downloaded at no cost at http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/mon/m03-all.pdf and I haven't ...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1314

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

grok87 wrote:...
http://www.plansponsor.com/MagazineArti ... 6442522166
...
See figure 1.
Time to sell some stocks and start building that 30 year tips ladder?


What would be the expected total return of a 30 year TIPS ladder compared to a 5 year nominal Treasuries ladder?
by dkturner
Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 69
Views: 6140

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016

By far the best critique of hedge funds I have ever read. :beer
by dkturner
Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 5382

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

In that passage, Buffett's failure to mention TIPS, even briefly in an aside, makes it suspect. That failure to even mention TIPS is something I see a lot, not just from Buffett, and frankly I think people leave it out because it complicates the simplistic story they want to present. If high inflat...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 5382

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

What is the alternative? Between 1941 and 1981 Treasury bills provided annualized, inflation adjusted, returns of -1.2%. Five year Treasuries -1.4%. Ten year Treasuries -2.3%. Looks like even very short-term fixed income could be a losing strategy. What about equities? Between 1941 and 1981 the S&a...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: C corp investment strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 843

Re: C corp investment strategy

I can't speak to C-corp taxation strategies, but I would be sleepless with so much riding on one company They own a business. The big Apple position is like a very successful division. Why would business people stay up nights worrying about the possibility of a successful division of their company ...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Micheal Kitces Rising Retirement Glidepath Still have legs
Replies: 47
Views: 4227

Re: Does Micheal Kitces Rising Retirement Glidepath Still have legs

Despite generous pensions that are more than enough for our lifestyle, plus the fact we can/do reinvest our end of year RMD's; we have lowered our Glidepath from a conservative 60/40 to the current 40/60 AA model. (Which is considered a bit high in stocks for our ages, mid 70's, but feels ok for us...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 5525

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

For U.S. Equity VEIRX and VWIAX. No value tilts for international equity.
by dkturner
Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5319

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

People lost a lot of money in the past 10 years (relative to S&P 500) by betting on international stocks. Most foreign currencies have been quite weak vs. the U.S.$ lately. The combination of lower valuation metrics of international equities coupled with lower priced foreign currencies has hist...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 5319

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

To put it mildly, it's pretty difficult to predict the future long-term returns of my portfolio. I'll try an settle for something a little easier. I'm content to try and estimate the relative returns of different asset classes over the next decade. Sometimes this is very difficult and at other times...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 8355

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It would seem that there's nothing magic about indexing one's portfolio. The real magic of the superior investment performance of the W&W siblings is quality management coupled with rock bottom management fees. Does this mean that one expects a return premium from taking manager risk? I believe...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 8355

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It would seem that there's nothing magic about indexing one's portfolio. The real magic of the superior investment performance of the W&W siblings is quality management coupled with rock bottom management fees. Does this mean that one expects a return premium from taking manager risk? I believe...
by dkturner
Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 8355

Re: A Wellesley alternative

What is so fascinating about Wellesley is that it goes against Bogleheads philosophy on almost every level. Managed Too few stocks and they are not diversified Way too many corp bonds. Yet somehow one of the greatest funds of all time. And, Wellington as well? :?: thoughts? j It would seem that the...
by dkturner
Fri Feb 10, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond is safe. Is it prudent?
Replies: 39
Views: 4233

Re: Total Bond Market Index Fund?

Bogleheads: In his Little Book of Common Sense Investing Mr. Bogle recommends a 2-fund portfolio: Total Stock Market and Total Bond Market. Investors seem to agree. Each is now the largest stock and bond mutual fund in the world. There is more than one road to Dublin. Best wishes. Taylor That's the...
by dkturner
Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Wellesley alternative
Replies: 93
Views: 8355

Re: A Wellesley alternative

It's also possible to replicate the Wellesley portfolio with a combination of 35-40% Vanguard Equity Income Fund and 60-65% Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment Grade Fund. The bond fund will have a shorter duration, which may be a plus since we likely have seen the end of the 35 year bond bull mar...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you changing your AA based on current events?
Replies: 68
Views: 3646

Re: Are you changing your AA based on current events?

No, not based on current events. However this month I did raise my international equity exposure from 12% of my total equity allocation to 20% based on the long period of underperformance of international equities and the weakness of foreign currencies.
by dkturner
Mon Jan 23, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 3527

Re: Smart Beta does not deliver Better Returns -- Bogle

Bogleheads: I believe Mr. Bogle is right; Many people do not understand why the cap-weighted total US stock market (TSM) plays such a central role in financial economics. They believe that TSM is just one of many possible US stock portfolios, with no good reason to believe that it is special or sup...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 21, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forever Stamps as an Investment?
Replies: 72
Views: 9026

Re: Forever Stamps as an Investment?

Johnnie wrote:Since they first invented Forever stamps I've thought about this every time postage rates go up. Transaction costs are why I never do it. How the heck do you liquidate thousands of dollars of first class stamps!


You sell them on Ebay, at a discount. :oops:
by dkturner
Wed Jan 18, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2480

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

cinghiale wrote:One question, though: Where, exactly, are the "bright spots" in relation to the performance of the S&P 500 Index?


You have to read the article to find the names of some of the "blind squirrels" who found acorns last year.
by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3742

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

However, broad market index funds are not fickle. They have done exactly what I have expected them to do, year after year, rain or shine. (OK, in 2002 Vanguard Total Bond made 8.82% while the index made 10.75%, and in Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index made 5.39% while the index made 6.97%... that so...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9208

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

We also are talking about real (inflation adjusted) rates of return. If you looked at bond returns from 1946-1982, they probably don't look so bad. What is horrible is when you factor in the ravages of inflation. A whole of inflation was going on during that time period. You had rising inflation an...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports
Replies: 5
Views: 752

Re: vanguard.com: Quarterly Reports vs Custom Reports

Yep I agree there can be an advantage to when you pay taxes due to the irregular tax quarters relative to calendar quarters - but I'm curious how those irregular quarters came to be? A little googling didn't yield a simple answer for me. Perhaps it's just best to not look a gift horse in the mouth?...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9208

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early in his predictions about rising interest rates as the Federal Reserve gradually unwinds its interest rate repression, as Malkiel call it. I have concerns about bonds as well. Going from memory here, but it seems that bonds lost about 5...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"
Replies: 48
Views: 9208

Re: Burton Malkiel says "Don't Buy Bonds"

Just looking for some thoughts on Malkiel's reasoning on why to not buy bonds. He says we need to look at history. Here is the video clip: https://youtu.be/Go2CnKgyonU He mentions it at the end of the video, around the 5 minute mark. The referenced video was made in early 2011. He was a tad early i...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21056

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

If you're using post-1926 US returns, consider yourself pulled over by the data mining police: you're picking one of the best performing nations, using a cherry-picked starting point (ie, start inj 1900 and things look a lot different), and not taking into consideration a roughly subsequent 2x incr...
by dkturner
Thu Dec 29, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 21056

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

But I agree that you don't need $70K/yr to meet "basic needs". That is a bit ridiculous, when the median family income in the US is less than $52K/yr (and that is FAMILY income....assuming children to feed, house, clothe, educate, etc). Certainly way more than 50% of American families hav...
by dkturner
Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wellesley dividends
Replies: 6
Views: 1083

Re: Wellesley dividends

Fiddle-Bow wrote:Does anyone know when VWIAX and VPMAX will have their distributions for December?


I do.
by dkturner
Mon Dec 12, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?
Replies: 3
Views: 436

Re: Does a Vanguard "upgrade" affect the SIPC situation?

My wife and I have a joint Vanguard Advantage account that holds only Vanguard mutual funds and was converted to the new combined account format earlier this year. The statements contain the caption "Assets listed in this statement are held by Vanguard Brokerage Services (VBS), a division of Va...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 12, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Math Wrong?
Replies: 25
Views: 2590

Re: Passive Investing Math Wrong?

Sorry don't have time to read the whole thread, but clearly pure indexing can be suboptimal and thus the math can be wrong. That's easily shown by simply looking at the performance of the Russell 2000. A passive index fund in small caps. It underperformed for decades the very similar CRSP 6-10 beca...
by dkturner
Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question - Quarterly Statements
Replies: 11
Views: 1449

Re: Question - Quarterly Statements

Can't you simply redeem the mutual funds in your Roth IRA and rollover the proceeds to a new Roth IRA at Vanguard?

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