Search found 1097 matches

by dkturner
Fri Feb 05, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg
Replies: 10
Views: 1209

Re: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg

I do think they could make more if they saved all the management fees, both internally and on the active funds, and just went with a low cost passive fund. They have enough to create their own funds internally. But I just don't see these folks giving up the power and control. It's easy to prove you...
by dkturner
Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?
Replies: 4
Views: 398

Re: Do value stocks outperform growth when rates rise?

Well, this back of the envelope study doesn't really pass rigid academic standards, but looking at the interest rates on 5 year US Treasury notes, L-C growth stocks and L-C value stocks from 1963 through 2015 here what I "discovered": 1963-1970. 5 year rates +3.70 total, L-C growth +8.15 a...
by dkturner
Tue Feb 02, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
Replies: 53
Views: 4045

Re: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age

It would be foolish to use age as the sole variable when deciding your portfolio. +1 Agree. I respectfully disagree with Mr. Ellis's advice for most people. The trouble is it is basically hindsight bias. To be blunt, the perspective of an older successful gentleman looking back at his youth and say...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 7594

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Edge Where do you get the idea that it creates any sense of certainty? Exactly the opposite is the case. IMI you are just misusing the information Larry I am with Homer and Edge on this one. When someone like GMO puts out forecasts to the 10th of a percent with no error bars, by all scientific stan...
by dkturner
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited
Replies: 28
Views: 4291

Re: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited

Robert T wrote: Is $40,152 materially greater than $25,036? Growth in $1000 of S&P500 Barra/Value vs. S&P500 Barra/Growth: 1975-2002 Is $23,151 materially greater than $13,85? Growth in $1000 of Russell 3000 Value vs. Russell 3000 Growth: 1979-2002 Is $79,570 materially greater than $67,264...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Investing
Replies: 6
Views: 1265

Re: Value Investing

There hasn't been a consistent "value premium" among large-cap stocks over the last 37 years, at least the way FF measure it. http://i63.tinypic.com/2ztkozk.png Which is probably why most of the advocates on here are so focused on "small-value". I think there's a lot to be skept...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 27, 2016 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?
Replies: 44
Views: 5632

Re: Why doesn't Vanguard stay the course?

Much like a new Dodge the manufacturer is taking a superior product and making it even better through the use of the latest innovations in financial engineering. :wink:
by dkturner
Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited
Replies: 28
Views: 4291

Re: John Bogle's telltale charts revisited

Within the last year I recall reading an interview with Mr. Bogle where he specifically acknowledged that academic research had demonstrated the existence of a long term "value" premium. True to form he also said that growth stocks and value stocks will continue to move in and out of favor...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5065

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

Growth funds can have more value premium than some value funds. Some value funds have bad value premiums--distressed. I don't think that's true. Growth is defined as the opposite of value. And value firms are distressed. They may be talking about actively managed funds, where anything is possible. ...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3299

Re: Jack's nuances.

I don't count social security as a bond, and I continue to pigheadedly and stubbornly stay the course in Total Bond. That means I'm ignoring both the people who urge holding more Treasuries and the people who urge holding more corporates. In snubbing corporates I am taking into account my personal ...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogle?
Replies: 36
Views: 3461

Re: Why Bogle?

Oh, and a lot of what makes sense can actually be implemented because Mr. Bogle made it possible in Vanguard funds. Boy, you hit the nail on the head with that compliment. In my book Mr. Bogle is going to be remembered primarily for his extraordinary contributions to low cost investing in an envior...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Example of why to favor Treasury-only bond funds
Replies: 13
Views: 2016

Re: Example of why to favor Treasury-only bond funds

Some people here over the years have advocated using Treasury-only bond funds instead of the total bond index, corporate bonds, munis etc. Here is an example why. YTD returns of some iShares ETFs through yesterday (1/20): Aggregate Bond (AGG): +1.07% Treasury bonds (GOVT): +1.80% Investment Grade b...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting stuck in an Asset Allocation you don't want
Replies: 37
Views: 3329

Re: Getting stuck in an Asset Allocation you don't want

What happens if our hypothetical investor's portfolio is mostly in a taxable account? This would seem to be a common occurrence for a corporate executive who has been the beneficiary of stock options and is now planning on retiring. It would also be a common occurrence for investors who worked for c...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Investing] Things that would/will never happen in your lifetime
Replies: 43
Views: 5162

Re: Things that would/will never happen in your lifetime

This thread wouldn't be complete without a reference to Mark Twain's observation that "history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes".
by dkturner
Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15
Replies: 332
Views: 36266

Re: Decided to try timing the market. 100% short on 9/17/15

Ok, so is he short now? If so when? I saw this as a defined system and a test of the system. If he's long, then it's a test of the OP to follow his defined system. The system appears to work, (I think) but if you don't actually follow the system, then what the heck are we doing here? no, still long...
by dkturner
Sun Jan 17, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Balanced Index Fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1329

Re: Vanguard Global Balanced Index Fund

SpringMan wrote:Maybe the OP wants a fund that is not a "fund of funds". That would open up the possibility of admiral shares and allow for foreign tax credit if held in a taxable account.


The OP may not be aware that the LifeStrategy series of funds are now truly global funds. Maybe we should ask.
by dkturner
Sat Jan 16, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $100 On October 9th, 2007 Worth How Much Today?
Replies: 29
Views: 5252

Re: $100 On October 9th, 2007 Worth How Much Today?

The scarier statistic is that $100 invested in the S&P on March 24, 2000 is $123.10 today not inflation adjusted, $89.32 inflation adjusted. That seems like it's a little light. You must be showing only principal appreciation. I just checked the return of my portfolio, adjusted for additions an...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Vanguard's active funds added value
Replies: 32
Views: 3863

Re: Have Vanguard's active funds added value

dk active managers don't underperform because they are dumb, it's because of costs. And so if you buy a low cost active fund you should expect similar returns to passive funds. Two things to consider. First all indexes with exception of TSM are dumb indices with flaws in them, like forced trading. ...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 15, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Vanguard's active funds added value
Replies: 32
Views: 3863

Re: Have Vanguard's active funds added value

I find it interesting how Wellesley (vwinx) and Wellington (vwelx) have both equalled or outperformed the Balanced fund (vbinx) over pretty much any time frame. Here's the M* growth chart for the Balanced fund. You can remove the extra symbols that M* includes and then add the tickers for Wellesley...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 15, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?
Replies: 37
Views: 1657

Re: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?

No transactions YTD. Positive beginning balances in all accounts. Quicken says -55.50 YTD IRR. XIRR says -58.20 YTD IRR. YTD actual returns are -2.84 using Quicken IRR and -3.06 using XIRR IRR. Vanguard 3 fund total market index funds weighted to correspond to my portfolio -3.41 YTD. Not sure I com...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 15, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?
Replies: 37
Views: 1657

Re: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?

@dkturner I have some "standardized" Quicken reports set up. The year to date shows a -84.03% for domestic equity but a -6.17% for the year ending 12/31/16. The current balance is automatically put into the "calc" as a positive cash flow (sale) on the last 12/31/16 but the repor...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 3724

Re: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules

Interesting that Bogle has changed from 60/40 to 50/50. To all those that strictly adhere to Bogle's own investment style (US-only, fixed allocation, etc) just remember this move is what he decided is best for him , and doesn't necessarily mean it is best for you . :wink: I noted in a late 2015 int...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

OK. It may be time for the Nobel Prize Committee to have another chat with Dr. Wm. Sharpe. Mr. Speer asserts In the UK and Europe those figures are reversed - as of mid-2015: Europe 65% of active funds have outperformed over 5 years 70% over 10 years UK 70% outperformed over 3 years 72% over 5 year...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

OK. It may be time for the Nobel Prize Committee to have another chat with Dr. Wm. Sharpe. Mr. Speer asserts In the UK and Europe those figures are reversed - as of mid-2015: Europe 65% of active funds have outperformed over 5 years 70% over 10 years UK 70% outperformed over 3 years 72% over 5 year...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?
Replies: 37
Views: 1657

Re: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?

Bustoff wrote:
DSInvestor wrote:I do not calculate the % up or down each year.

+1 ... b/c it's out of my control.


Our portfolios deviate from the "market" portfolio so we have an interest in quantifying the extent of the mistake we are making.
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?
Replies: 37
Views: 1657

Re: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?

When I do calculate ,which is not very often, Quicken :happy I have found that the returns Quicken shows differ from the results shown by Vanguard and Excel XIRR. Is there some Quicken function that I'm not using properly? Make sure you have a non zero position at the start of the period for (?) ev...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?
Replies: 37
Views: 1657

Re: What do you use to calculate total % up or down each year?

Toons wrote:When I do calculate ,which is not very often,
Quicken :happy

I have found that the returns Quicken shows differ from the results shown by Vanguard and Excel XIRR. Is there some Quicken function that I'm not using properly?
by dkturner
Thu Jan 14, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Powerball a good play?
Replies: 48
Views: 3051

Re: Is the Powerball a good play?

I approach the lottery ticket issue differently. Approximately 50% of ticket sale proceeds are essentially charitable contributions to a collection of state governments. The remaining 50% is paid out to the holders of winning tickets, but, in the case of large jackpots like Powerball, probably 40% o...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]

More importantly, there is nothing that suggests taking the time to study stocks or fund managers will make you likely to outperform index funds. There's a misconception that if you put the time in, you'll get good results. This is not true. This isn't like studying for an exam at school. The math ...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

The adviser may be motivated by his own ignorance, but it does not make the fate of hapless advisees any better. We had many threads by people who have been lured by advisers into funds and annuities with backloads and other sticky features. The one I am following now is Advisor wants to convert TS...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

Novice investors are going to be exposed to all sorts of statements, in some cases by people trying to do them harm sell them suboptimal investments, and I think it's not too bad for them to hear a wide range of opinion. You understand the outcome very well, but not the motivation. Hiring a prospec...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 8913

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

"He said the bank's red flags for 2016 -- falling oil, volatility in China, shrinking world trade, rising debt, weak corporate loans and deflation -- had all been seen in just the first week of trading." Aren't those things already priced into the market? Since all of them were well known...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

The idea that active management vs index funds is not a very important choice is completely wrong, and I have no idea why some people insist on making this argument on a forum where two of the core philosophical principles are "Use index funds when possible" and "Keep costs low."...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Emergency Funds Count as a part of Retirement portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 2499

Re: Do Emergency Funds Count as a part of Retirement portfolio?

This post piqued my curiosity. I can't ever remember thinking about the concept of a "retirement portfolio". I have always thought in terms of an "investment portfolio" (as opposed to a bank account or a savings account) and have just assumed that one's investment portfolio consi...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies" [Scott Adams on Active Management]
Replies: 73
Views: 7217

Re: "It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies"

Asset allocation matters, and expenses do too. I do not know any Bogleheads who suggest using index funds and then ignoring asset allocation. Moreover, selecting actively managed funds requires having an asset allocation just as much as selecting index funds does. I think the original point was tha...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How common is this [Have more money 10+ years into retirement]
Replies: 72
Views: 8814

Re: How common is this

I have only been retired for 4 1/4 years, my wife retired about 12 years ago. Our asset allocation is approximately 50/50 (60/40 until 2009). At year end 2015 the market value of our cash and marketable securities was 33.7% higher, in nominal terms, than when I retired in September of 2011 and 130.2...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 09, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SP500 "reverse tilt"
Replies: 33
Views: 2364

Re: SP500 "reverse tilt"

in_reality: you're demonstrating the dark side of this forum in spades. You skimmed my post, saw some trigger word (sector) that set you off, and went on a rant about your 1-off personal experience which is not remotely close to what I had in mind. Even after I tell you you're not answering the que...
by dkturner
Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 6557

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passe...
by dkturner
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Investor returns vs. Index fund returns
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Actual Investor returns vs. Index fund returns

Perhaps we should focus on our returns relative to other investor's performance and not the actual returns stated for the index's. Wouldn't that be a rather pathetic comparison? I mean if you're well grounded in the Boglehead principles shouldn't you aim a little higher than that? After reading you...
by dkturner
Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1368

Re: When will vanguard reopen the treasury money mkt fund?

grok87 wrote:Seems like now that the fed has raised rates this should be happening...


Vanguard normally reopens a previously closed fund when assets have declined AND when interest in to invest in the closed fund has waned.
by dkturner
Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Performance
Replies: 12
Views: 1061

Re: 2015 Performance

jfly wrote:Who made good money last year?


I made "good" money last year - just not as much of it as I would have liked. :D
by dkturner
Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 7552

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

Well Amazon certainly believes EM is here to stay: "Dear AWS Customer, We are pleased to announce the immediate availability of the new AWS Asia Pacific (Seoul) Region. Seoul joins Singapore, Tokyo, Sydney, and Beijing as the fifth AWS Region in Asia Pacific and as the twelfth region worldwide...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 7552

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

I went to the Morningstar website and looked up VEIEX. M* shows VEIEX trailing its category (diversified emerging markets) by 63 basis points per year for the last 5 years and 153 basis points per year for the last 3 years. The average emerging market fund has an expense ratio that is at least 120 ...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 7552

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock fund has been a disappointment for the last 15 years. It's performance over the last 5 years (versus the average emerging market fund) has truly been an embarrassment. Hm. Not quite sure why you say that. I did a quick check, using a total-return chart, and I don...
by dkturner
Wed Jan 06, 2016 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO: what a terrible performance!!
Replies: 79
Views: 7552

Re: VWO: what a terrible performance!!

The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock fund has been a disappointment for the last 15 years. It's performance over the last 5 years (versus the average emerging market fund) has truly been an embarrassment. I can't imagine why a rational investor would want to put money at risk by tracking an index tha...
by dkturner
Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what age did you stop reinvesting dividends?
Replies: 45
Views: 4403

Re: At what age did you stop reinvesting dividends?

I'm in my 70s and continue to reinvest all of my taxable account dividend income and probably always will. My wife, on the other hand, is younger than me and for years has used her dividends to add to her fixed income holdings, and probably always will. I don't think it's an age based thing, it's mo...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's With Vanguard's Active Funds?
Replies: 18
Views: 2670

Re: What's With Vanguard's Active Funds?

So, the "secret sauce" isn't indexing after all. It's the superiority of active management coupled with rock bottom fees. dk, you are rockin' our world. :shock: Paul I'm only rockin' the world for some of us Paul. Bill Bernstein has frequently commented that there is nothing magic about i...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5065

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

a roughly 1% advantage in something that bounces up and down frequently by 4% and sometimes by as much as 13% could easily be noise. If in fact the 1% gain were driven by the aftermath of the great tech bubble bursting, an event we may not see again, it might even be likely to be noise. Now it is h...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 04, 2016 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When will Value outpeform Growth?
Replies: 62
Views: 5065

Re: When will Value outpeform Growth?

The Russell 3000 index of U.S. Stock performance has useful, and consistent, data on growth vs. value stock performance going back to 1979. We now have 37 years of data. FWIW the Russell 3000 Growth Index had annualized returns of 10.9% vs. 12.1% for the Russell 3000 Value Index. Value outperformed ...
by dkturner
Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Market Forecasting
Replies: 5
Views: 695

Re: Jack Bogle Market Forecasting

Why doesn't bogle ever talk about stock buybacks when he discusses his equation dividend yield plus earnings growth rate. I could only assume that he is accounting for the buyback yield in the earnings growth rate, but I have never heard him say that. He normally mentions that earnings have grown h...

Go to advanced search