Search found 790 matches

by dharrythomas
Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to move into bonds
Replies: 43
Views: 3124

Re: When to move into bonds

Ben Graham would have recommended you make the move a long time ago. He said that the default position should be 50/50 and that everyone should be somewhere between 75/25 and 25/75. We just all think we know better.
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Light on Taxable- Cut Retirement Contributions Or Take 10% Penalty?
Replies: 21
Views: 1814

Re: Light on Taxable- Cut Retirement Contributions Or Take 10% Penalty?

rob wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:37 pm
Read up about SEPP - Substantially Equal Periodic Payments
+2
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Pay Off My Mortgage When I Retire?
Replies: 24
Views: 1222

Re: Should I Pay Off My Mortgage When I Retire?

I'd pay it off, but the amount is small to you and the term is short so your risk is minimal. I have no strong feelings either way and recommend you do whatever you want.

Good luck

Harry
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with estate planning
Replies: 21
Views: 2166

Re: Help with estate planning

An $11M estate provides inheritances an order of magnitude beyond what I have experience with, I won't even pretend to offer advise beyond, you've probably reached the level where professional advice would be helpful.

Good luck

Harry
by dharrythomas
Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds v. Mortgage Payoff
Replies: 21
Views: 2072

Re: Bonds v. Mortgage Payoff

When I retire, we'll have pension income that will cover expenses and when you consider that I won't have TSP contributions and FICA taxes, and Health insurance premiums, may provide more free cash flow than we've got now. We paid off the house four years ago, did not offset it against bonds, are re...
by dharrythomas
Sat Oct 07, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Millionaire Next Door (Thank you Bogleheads)
Replies: 81
Views: 11718

Re: Millionaire Next Door (Thank you Bogleheads)

The Millionaire Mind is also a good book.

Interestingly, Dr Stanley didn't follow his own advice. He died when he wrecked his new sports car.
by dharrythomas
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham
Replies: 12
Views: 1514

Re: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham

Graham's default asset allocation was 50/50 and he said that regardless of market conditions everyone should be between 75/25 and 25/75. So never exit the market and never be without a cushion in bonds.

Good luck!

Harry
by dharrythomas
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can recent rise in stocks be due to fall in dollar?
Replies: 2
Views: 464

Re: Can recent rise in stocks be due to fall in dollar?

I think the answer is maybe, sometimes on cause and effect, but I don't try to account for it except as far as currency fluctuations are included in my inflation assumptions. In your international funds, the falling dollar will increase the value of your holding and a large currency move mave overwh...
by dharrythomas
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 35
Views: 4274

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

By the strictest definition, my guess would be almost everyone who's been at this longer than a week. In fact many of us started out without a long term plan, which is even more dangerous to long term financial success. I have adjusted my plan, I took some risk off the table a couple of months ago. ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Honesty like that is rare!"
Replies: 47
Views: 7597

Re: "Honesty like that is rare!"

The TSP is great but they do something similar by having the C and S fund when they could just have a total US stock fund. And the I could also include EM to be broader. I know a lot of people who hold more S than C. Certainly not 70% C, 30% S. They don't want to hold the market at market weights. ...
by dharrythomas
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity four-in-one index fund lower ER, invest everything in it?
Replies: 40
Views: 6471

Re: Fidelity four-in-one index fund lower ER, invest everything in it?

I used it years ago in a 401(K). It's a good fund IF you like the asset allocation. I only had three issues with Fidelity. 1) There lineup of index funds were limited 2) There Target date funds were packed with below average Fidelity growth funds (so after FNOX was removed from the plan, I took a bi...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Don’t Vanguard’s Target Retirement and LifeStrategy Funds Own Admiral Shares?"
Replies: 37
Views: 4785

Re: "Why Don’t Vanguard’s Target Retirement and LifeStrategy Funds Own Admiral Shares?"

I understand. Thanks Taylor. If you read the fine print, the LifeStrategy and Target Retirement funds receive a rebate from the underlying funds to pay the fund expenses. Since there are actual costs involved, if you used admiral funds, you'd be providing the underlying funds at the institutional co...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4925

Re: How Fidelity’s War With Vanguard Means Big Savings for Investors

For Fidelity this loss leader is advertising. They need to stay big to stay relevant and they are bleeding assets. As their base drops, their fixed costs eat a growing percentage of the return making it harder to compete. Once they get the sheep in, they can sell them the more expensive managed fund...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1844

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

As the Nobel Prize winners at LTCM found out. Even if your theory is right, if you use leverage, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Limit you leverage and keep plenty of reserves. Nerves of steel won't prevent margin calls when the market moves against you. Leverage, d...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Son's trust fund for education
Replies: 13
Views: 1385

Re: Son's trust fund for education

Our son was matriculating in 2002. He had an UGMA of a bit more than $100,000 in August 2001. Portfolio of 70% bluechip stock and funds, 30% EE bonds 4% guaranteed, By Jan 2003, Semester #2, the UGMA was $40,000 and only $2000 was used for Semester #1. His school cost-of-attendance was ~$34,000/yr....
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 23, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retired and Lost :( Thrift Savings Plan Question
Replies: 9
Views: 2115

Re: Retired and Lost :( Thrift Savings Plan Question

1) As stated above, you need to read up on MRD, you must start drawing at 70 based on life expectancy. 2) I'd use the LifeCycle 2030 fund, it gives you some growth and risk but is far short of all equities. But most importantly, don't look at the TSP in isolation! You need to consider anything else ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 9673

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

The biggest problem with data based investing is that the data is backwards looking in a fast moving ever changing environment. Investing is more art than science. At best it is a type of social science where you can predict what will happen most of the time under normal conditions. You use regressi...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advise on 1 (maybe 2) year investment
Replies: 2
Views: 283

Re: Advise on 1 (maybe 2) year investment

A CD is the right play. Return is low, but anything more is not an investment over a one or two year horizon. It's a gamble. Good luck
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense
Replies: 95
Views: 9846

Re: Personal Finance Milestone: 20 Times Annual Expense

Congratulations! Saving 1/3 is quite impressive.

I've also made multiple errors and continue to do so, don't feel alone. I've have been amazed at how well it turned out in spite of me. We've been blessed.

Good luck.

Harry
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 8179

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

This article by Andrew Lo on the Adaptive Market Hypothesis, appears to be on topic. He notes that as a group, we take the wrong lessons from periods like now and increase our risk, while another crisis is coming.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-i ... 2017-06-02
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 15, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 8179

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

Based on what he says he pays in taxes, the fact that only $100,000 in income came from Salary, and the fact that he didn't get any dividends or capital gains from BKR, my rough estimate is that he has at least $100M in other funds. If you have enough money so that with 10% in bonds, if all your sto...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Federal Couple - Financial Independence? Early Retirement?
Replies: 18
Views: 3199

Re: Federal Couple - Financial Independence? Early Retirement?

If you only need 75k a year, then you're done. It doesn't matter what the FERs pension is worth, a 4-5% rate of return on your investments and social security and you're covered. The big issue here is what will your expenses, including health care, really be. +1. Relax, you can even win if you cut ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help Me Choose Funds in New 401K
Replies: 8
Views: 468

Re: Help Me Choose Funds in New 401K

I would like to maintain an aggressive allocation with either 80/10 or 90/10. Any insight on which funds to pick would be greatly appreciated. I'm in my low 30's and my only other retirement savings are a Roth and Traditional IRA. All funds invested in VFIFX - Vanguard Target Retirement 2050 which ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing out Roth Before Exceeding Income Limit?
Replies: 4
Views: 517

Re: Maxing out Roth Before Exceeding Income Limit?

Yes, I think, in general, it makes since to use a Roth account while you can.

Good luck.

Harry
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help family member with finances
Replies: 19
Views: 1489

Re: Help family member with finances

I think the rule is that a current spouse has to wait, but an ex can start when the earner turns 62. Otherwise, someone might not file out of spite. I made the (maybe invalid) assumption that since she'd been out of the workforce for some years that with all the zeros she'll have in the calculation ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I simplify my portfolio?
Replies: 24
Views: 2421

Re: Should I simplify my portfolio?

The answer to your question is almost always yes. You could do worse (and most people do) than investing 100% in LifeStrategy Growth for 25 years, then switching to LifeStrategy Moderate Growth until retirement, then to LifeStrategy Conservative Growth. Or you could pick one Target Retirement Fund, ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help family member with finances
Replies: 19
Views: 1489

Re: Help family member with finances

SS, she can draw 50% of his benefit for the rest of her life. Most pensions have options for single life or you can purchase a survivor's benefit so that if the spouse who earned the pension died first the survivor still receives a benefit. Usually changing this is only an option at a life changing ...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help family member with finances
Replies: 19
Views: 1489

Re: Help family member with finances

She's drawing $19K on her ex-husband's pension. Before you start to think about risk, is there a survivor's benefit? I know several people who had the option and didn't purchase one. Very different recommendations on the $53K depending on the risk of her winding up with just 50% of his SS. Nothing b...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VTMFX - Vanguard Tax Managed Balanced
Replies: 10
Views: 1971

Re: VTMFX - Vanguard Tax Managed Balanced

You could do worse. We own some in taxable, though the thought process was not entirely logical (It was part of an inheritance and my parents believed strongly in municipal bonds so I put about 10% of the inheritance there and 40% into Total World Index in taxable). It will smooth the ride some in t...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?
Replies: 28
Views: 2817

Re: New Information, New Viewpoint on Investing?

Absolutely. It changed the way I thought about taxes, simplicity, having one portfolio instead of buckets and the objective (anyone who has enough wins, you don't have to accumulate the most, if I think of it as a competition, I'll take risk than is prudent). Taylor, livesoft, and nisiprius have com...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 77
Views: 6943

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

I want a solid, mathematical framework that shows numerically or analytically exactly how much international to invest in. I am not very comfortable with the "everyone should just go with a gut feeling, anything between 20% and cap weight's OK" mentality that is fairly prevalent. Mabye someone coul...
by dharrythomas
Sat Jul 08, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 77
Views: 6943

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

You misunderstand. The term "currency risk" doesn't mean what you think it means. "Currency risk" does not mean "the risk that fiat money will become valueless." That's a separate issue. The term "currency risk," also called "exchange rate risk," is a defined term with a meaning. It applies only to...
by dharrythomas
Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?
Replies: 77
Views: 6943

Re: Weak Evidence for International in Vanguard Research - Am I Missing Something?

My theory is that I'm diversifying the currency risk with international stocks. I'm kidding myself if I think I can avoid currency risk. If all my assets are in dollars, I'm betting big on the dollar. While I can tell myself that my future spending will be in dollars, people in 1920s Germany were be...
by dharrythomas
Fri Jul 07, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paid off the Mortgage!
Replies: 73
Views: 6139

Re: Paid off the Mortgage!

Congratulations
by dharrythomas
Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Medallion signature guarantee for smaller investments?
Replies: 12
Views: 1085

Re: Medallion signature guarantee for smaller investments?

Having done this several times to clean up estates, take statements with you. When the bank (I used a credit union) guarantees a signature, they are taking the place of whoever you are dealing with and will want to ensure not only that you are who you say you are but also that you have the authority...
by dharrythomas
Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finally able to max 401k, should I shift from Target Fund strategy?
Replies: 20
Views: 1809

Re: Finally able to max 401k, should I shift from Target Fund strategy?

Why do you want to change? You are doing well, unless you have some compelling reason or an overwhelming desire to get more involved, just stay the course until retirement. While a Target Retirement fund is not optimal for an individual, you'll only know what portfolio was optimal for you at the end...
by dharrythomas
Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bond wipeout has just begun"???
Replies: 84
Views: 12808

Re: "Bond wipeout has just begun"???

Stay the course!!

Do not deviate from you long term plan. The only adjustments you should consider to your asset allocation are rebalancing and reducing risk (buying additional bonds) as your risk tolerance changes.

The key thing to remember is that "nobody knows nothing"
by dharrythomas
Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2683

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

I am close to Dave Ramsey on debt and paying it off as fast as you can. With the exception of Student Loan debt, the interesting thing about a student loan is that it is forgiven if the borrower/student dies. In a regrets minimization world, why would you pay off early a debt that in the worst possi...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 04, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the advantage of deferring taxes vs paying them up front?
Replies: 57
Views: 5575

Re: What is the advantage of deferring taxes vs paying them up front?

If you hold tax rates constant, it seems to me that it should be a wash. That is a false assumption. I pay 0% tax on long-term capital gains now instead of the 28% I would have paid years ago. Furthermore, tax-loss harvesting makes even short=term capital gains tax-free for me. While holing tax rat...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simplest "Nobody Knows Nothing" Don't Peek Portfolio?
Replies: 20
Views: 3374

Re: Simplest "Nobody Knows Nothing" Don't Peek Portfolio?

It would be perfect if Vanguard offered Admiral shares for accounts greater than $50 or $100K (Large enough for Vanguard not to have to subsidize it). LifeStrategy and Target Retirement are the only funds in our Vanguard tax free/deferred accounts. They also help me avoid tinkering.
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 04, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: roth vs trad 403b and portfolio questions
Replies: 3
Views: 311

Re: roth vs trad 403b and portfolio questions

I like Roth and your income will be going up significantly, so I'd recommend Roth JP Morgan SmartRetirement is probably OK. The following look pretty good. The allocation among equities is no far off from LifeStrategy Growth, but gives you an example of what you might do. Vanguard institutional (36%...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 04, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When, if ever, does it make sense to cease contributing the 401K max?
Replies: 40
Views: 5922

Re: When, if ever, does it make sense to cease contributing the 401K max?

Not all bogleheads (I hope) have been able to salt away the 401(k) max for the duration of their working lives. Over the last month, I have been researching my own contributions and noticed that I have hit the max only a third of my working life thus far (much worse than what I'd have thought a mon...
by dharrythomas
Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner needs sanity check moving a lot of cash to market.
Replies: 58
Views: 5583

Re: Beginner needs sanity check moving a lot of cash to market.

In your situation, I would: (1) Pay off the cars (2) Pay off the house. (I listen to people talk about the alternatives and acknowledge that if you don't panic and if everything goes right that most people will have a little more money at the end. But I can't know in advance what my circumstances wi...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% stocks no debt?
Replies: 56
Views: 5155

Re: 100% stocks no debt?

Ben Graham said that even the most enterprising investors had no business with more than a 75/25 allocation. I don't pretend to understand it better than he did. Buffett talks about 90/10 for his widow, but my estimate is that that would leave her $10M or more in bonds--so she wouldn't notice (from ...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jul 03, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 36309

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

An eye opener :happy "A June 2015 Government Accountability Office analysis found that that average Americans between the ages of 55 and 64 have accrued about $104,000 in retirement savings" http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/011216/average-retirement-savings-age-2016.asp This ma...
by dharrythomas
Mon Jul 03, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?
Replies: 63
Views: 6220

Re: High Stock Returns in a Low-Growth World?

Absolutely over the long term for the stock market as a whole. Shares of stock are part of business, if you own the market as a whole, your return is based on growth of a business which in the aggregate is going to be correlated to growth on the economy. This only works with the market as a whole. I...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP and Vanguard Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 777

Re: TSP and Vanguard Roth

Sorry I missed these two questions.

The max you can contribute to the TSP is $18K.

If you're unsure what you want to invest in, the LifeCycle funds are a good start.

Good luck
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP and Vanguard Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 777

Re: TSP and Vanguard Roth

Unless you are in the military and are ineligible for the match, you should set up TSP contributions IMMEDIATELY. By immediately, I mean tonight or tomorrow. The TSP matches the first 5% of your salary that you contribute. You should do this right away so as not to miss another pay period. The minim...
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I change investment tactics? Confused.
Replies: 10
Views: 1121

Re: Should I change investment tactics? Confused.

You could achieve the same tax diversification by changing a portion of your contribution to the Roth TSP.

Since you are in the TSP do something simple.
by dharrythomas
Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The conundrum I am in concerning need vs desire
Replies: 19
Views: 2535

Re: The conundrum I am in concerning need vs desire

I'd just go 60/40, though anywhere from 25/75 to 75/25 is reasonable. You might even consider spending or giving away some of it, it sounds like you have enough to relax. You also might consider transferring some of it to a Roth IRAin the few years before MRD. It might be valuable for her to have so...