Search found 20942 matches

by dbr
Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Assisting Parent with Dementia
Replies: 9
Views: 614

Re: Assisting Parent with Dementia

In the case of one parent mentally incapable of managing finances and the other unwilling or unprepared to do so, you are going to have to step in and do it for them. As posted, the first step is to obtain a durable power of attorney. You also need to then get your power accepted at all the relevant...
by dbr
Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Selling mutual fund shares (basic question)
Replies: 5
Views: 328

Re: Selling mutual fund shares (basic question)

I’m confused about something very basic. If I sell mutual fund shares at a loss, how do I pay for them? Last week I sold $8000 of VMLUX shares to fund a new IRA. I lost 115.61. Did I pay Vanguard or some other entity 115.61? I can’t find any evidence that I did. If not, where did I spend that money...
by dbr
Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 1211
Views: 150079

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

All programs are devalued eventually. I've thought about this and how to incorporate it into an earnings strategy to optimize efficient use of one's time/focus. Seems to me that if you know you aren't going to be able to travel or have use of them due to whatever reason during a particular time fra...
by dbr
Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

It's difficult to consider not making the move to 90/10 when buffet says things in prior years letters such as on page 18-19 of 2014 letter...(few paragraphs copy/pasted below) Buffett believes in 90/10 absolutely not because you can then live on the dividends. You could buy stock in his company, t...
by dbr
Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

Of course the grand experiment in having math education designed by real mathematicians played out its sad story with the "new math." dbr Probably OT from this thread but what do you mean? I don't have kids and am old (46) so I don't know how kids nowadays are being taught. Is this "...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Furthermore, if companies are doing the wrong thing by paying dividends instead of putting everything back into the company, should we avoid dividend payers? I have often wondered when people say that it is better to pay dividends than to waste the money internally then why would one want to be inv...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

The thing to understand is that the compounding math works just the same, regardless of the sequence of values. The sequence could be anything. There's nothing that says there should have exponential growth (or decay) (i.e. a geometric sequence), that's only the very special case when all the ratio...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

The real point is why it is so difficult to provide mathematics education that extends to some of these ideas that come up with such frequency on phenomena of every day importance. Sometimes the teaching of this subject is provided. However, learning can be problematic. If one student fails to lear...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

II don't see anywhere that "Bogleheads love to say . . .[the above]" Did you look? I can help you with that, because I find it hard to not see it on a regular basis. Here's a sampling I found within 2 minutes of searching: I understand the general consensus here opposes precious metals (w...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendations?
Replies: 31
Views: 3206

Re: Why has Vanguard increased International Stock and International Bond in Balanced Funds and Portfolio Recommendation

I don't doubt that Vanguard follows what they say in their white papers as far as about any of the recommendations they make. Whether one agrees with their conclusions is another question but not the one you are asking.
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Amount of My Bonds Should Be I Bonds?
Replies: 10
Views: 1121

Re: What Amount of My Bonds Should Be I Bonds?

I think that after your first purchase of any I-bonds that you will hate treasurydirect.gov web site and never buy anymore I-bonds. You really don't need them at all. I agree. Treasury direct is one more account that one might best avoid if possible. We had some I bonds and most thankfully no longe...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Forgot to add: Bogleheads love to say that one of the drawbacks of gold, if not the top one, is that it "doesn't pay a dividend." When stocks or funds pay a dividend, it is suddenly something to be frowned upon. :confused Why is that? No, I believe gold is frowned upon because it does not...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Forgot to add: Bogleheads love to say that one of the drawbacks of gold, if not the top one, is that it "doesn't pay a dividend." When stocks or funds pay a dividend, it is suddenly something to be frowned upon. :confused Why is that? I doubt the Bogleheads that worry that gold doesn't pa...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: moving from landscaper/snow plower to diy in retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 2006

Re: moving from landscaper/snow plower to diy in retirement

Machinery you own requires maintenance as well. Then maybe you want to participate in a "cylinders" club. The contest is how many cylinders of internal combustion machinery you own, cars, outboards, all the way down to chainsaws. One year I beat out the guys at work with all their four whe...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique my bonds ratio
Replies: 9
Views: 525

Re: Please critique my bonds ratio

I think you need to say more about how much you can save and what kind of retirement you might want to support. It is likely as other posters are pointing out that you need saving a lot more than you need to target a higher hoped for return at this point. But it is all numbers and more information i...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

I think it is easier to "fake" earnings than to "fake" dividends. But not impossible-didn't Enron do it for a while? The article brings up to me the possibility of asking whether non-dividend paying stocks tend to produce higher total return going forward vs. dividend paying sto...
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: moving from landscaper/snow plower to diy in retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 2006

Re: moving from landscaper/snow plower to diy in retirement

Ironically the best thing I have done in retirement is hire a landscaper and people to remove snow, both chores I have always hated. But I don't have the acreage you do nor the driveway. Outdoor work might be a very good idea in retirement but it can be a burden and a hazard as well.
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House as Temporary Pseudo-Proxy for Bonds
Replies: 37
Views: 1459

Re: House as Temporary Pseudo-Proxy for Bonds

There is nothing wrong with owning stocks and a house, with or without a mortgage, and no bonds, but you justify that on the merits rather than by inventing "pseudo-proxies" that don't work. Does your plan work for you or do you think there are reasons you should have bonds as well?
by dbr
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

I hate to admit it but when I was kid, this taught me something--no, not Danny Kaye singing the words that are supposed to be the message of the song, but the children's chorus in the background behind him. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXi3bjKowJU I don't know if you mean this as a positive or a...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

... Zeno, around 450 BC, apparently did not understand geometric series. Zeno of Elea 's point was the reasoning they were using clearly was wrong, therefore they'd better think of something else. In particular it had to do with whether not-yet-named physics was continuous or discrete. He simply us...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

A lot of people in STEM fields have been working with it for so long that it is second nature and we forget that it wasn't always obvious. (As witness the poster who thought I was doing something invalid in drawing a straight line on a semilog chart of a mutual fund to demonstrate that it had had a...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 53
Views: 3905

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

I'm with you on the math and I'm with you on your rejection of hype.
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Simple" question about compounding
Replies: 18
Views: 1259

Re: "Simple" question about compounding

With regard to the mystique of "compounding," it basically happens as long as you do not take money out of your account and, if it pays dividends, arrange to have the dividends reinvested so that you buy new shares with them... you then earn dividends on the reinvested dividends, just as,...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Simple" question about compounding
Replies: 18
Views: 1259

Re: "Simple" question about compounding

Understanding compounding is made much easier by reference to the basic mathematics behind it. If wrestling with that math is a chore, I would argue that the effort is well worth while. To address the general concept one could look up geometric or exponential growth. An example of what is involved l...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1339

Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation

A "newbie" question. . . . are TIPS ladders, Treasuries, or CD ladders, etc, in the world of "Bear Proof"? :?: If by bear proof you mean bonds that would not have an unfortunate correlation with equities at the worst time, then treasuries or CDs would probably be the choice in p...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

I also don't understand the bias against investing for income. Isn't that a big reason that people buy bonds? It probably is a big reason in some cases, and one in which current investors have had the rug pulled out from under their feet. So much for the reliability of yield, in the case of bonds. ...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

Dividends are idiot-proof, automatic, perpetual, regular, and fairly consistent streams of money. Period. Those statements are partly true and partly subject to some serious qualification, especially the idiot proof part. Valuing dividends is not a behavioral tic or just for people who lack impulse...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality
Replies: 82
Views: 4307

Re: new study on Investor behavior being disconnected from financial theory and reality

I'm not a tax person at all. But don't Qualified Dividends and LT Capital Gains get the same tax treatment? I don't pretend to know the tax code, but I thought only bond interest payments were treated like income. FWIW I have no preference for dividends especially, but we'll appreciate the income s...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Train Trip
Replies: 17
Views: 1358

Re: Train Trip

Yes, one aspect of Amtrak travel is lack of adherence to schedule and even outright cancellation. I think the Empire Builder did not operate for a couple of weeks recently due to snow in Marias Pass in Montana. Spring can have floods, and fires can hold things up as well. It is an open ended adventu...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oscillating withdrawal rate - OWR
Replies: 10
Views: 775

Re: Oscillating withdrawal rate - OWR

In the real world people spend what they spend because they need and want to. Withdrawal rates are a pretty silly formula for how to live one's life. It is a fair observation that a person would want to pay attention that the average progress of withdrawals and growth or shrinkage of the portfolio b...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not more Consumer Staples in Portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 392

Re: Why not more Consumer Staples in Portfolio?

The theory is that you concentrate in an asset subclass if you can show that it is exposed to factors that robustly predict an advantage in risk and return. I do not believe consumer staples is established as having such a rationale for concentration. Otherwise you are chasing statistical noise that...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can somebody please explain brokerage accounts at Vanguard?
Replies: 23
Views: 2364

Re: Can somebody please explain brokerage accounts at Vanguard?

The business of running separate mutual fund accounts holding only Vanguard funds and brokerage accounts if you want to hold anything else seems to have appeared to Vanguard as an antiquated and inefficient way to manage people's holdings, so they have proceeded to move entirely to a brokerage model...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bogleheads' Philosophy a Generalization?
Replies: 52
Views: 2596

Re: Bogleheads' Philosophy a Generalization?

A question is whether or not you want to add the risk that active management will continue to exceed in those few cases. That even applies to taking on management risk in such funds as Wellesley and Wellington. In the meantime a fact, not a philosophy, is that costs are a constant and certain loss t...
by dbr
Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.
Replies: 150
Views: 20263

Re: Wow, Vanguard Flagship service is bad. Really bad.

I have Vanguard ETFs outside of Vanguard. At another brokerage Vanguard mutual funds do not have Admiral standing regardless of the amount in the fund. I am wondering if anyone has the experience of having Vanguard Investor class expense ratios with fund sizes that would have Admiral class expense ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 24, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Train Trip
Replies: 17
Views: 1358

Re: Train Trip

We have done the Empire Builder on a good part of that route, part of the Coast Starlight, and part of the Zephyr. The route suggested by PJW would be highly recommended. Taking a sleeping accommodation is highly recommended in spite of the cost. Sitting up in coach for the whole route would be grue...
by dbr
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How efficiently are my investments working?
Replies: 15
Views: 792

Re: How efficiently are my investments working?

Regarding a gain of 60%, if an investment had an average return of 10% with a 25% standard deviation, then roughly speaking 60% is two SDs above the average, thus the return is higher than about 98% of the possible outcomes, roughly speaking. If this is an unfamiliar way of putting the result, then ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How efficiently are my investments working?
Replies: 15
Views: 792

Re: How efficiently are my investments working?

The conclusion in this case is that you had significantly large gains during this year. Otherwise there is little that can be said and nothing about efficiency, a word that has a technical definition related to how much risk was taken to get that return.
by dbr
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 40
Views: 4248

Re: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads

A common quote that I see floating around here is Warren Buffett's famous "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful". Sounds like words of wisdom, but I just realized that is market timing. How do Bogleheads reconcile this? I don't invest by sound bite and ...
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 2049

Re: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio

It kind of seems like there is a thought here that it is automatically negative to combine portfolios.The only overlap here is some treasuries which is a positive for me. I really just do not get it I guess.So what you are saying is a portfolio of small cap value,large cap value,treasuries and some...
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop Computer - Still relevant? Good investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 4828

Re: Desktop Computer - Still relevant? Good investment?

We each have a desktop and probably always will. For us it is the most suitable machine by far. We don't use ultra high end machines. And, yes, we own a portable computing device or two. There has been no preference between Mac and PC.
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 2049

Re: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio

Unless you are designating separate accounts for specifically different purposes you can't have more than one portfolio. It doesn't exist logically. Mixing up Wellesley/Wellington, Larry, three funds, LMP, risk, portfolios or whatever description is just a mixed up portfolio that has some properties...
by dbr
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull/Sell your stock before dividend date or after dividend date?
Replies: 9
Views: 1110

Re: Bull/Sell your stock before dividend date or after dividend date?

grabiner wrote: Leaving $10,000 out of the market for a week is likely to cost you more than that $8.


At an expected excess return of 6% about $12, to be specific.
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4746

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

There seems to be an investment "trend" or cycle at work here based on past and present events. This is not unlike "hot pants :shock: ", "flare pants", "braless go go dancers", "beatniks", "big band swing", and "Bertilak-fedoras :wink...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4746

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

There seems to be an investment "trend" or cycle at work here based on past and present events. This is not unlike "hot pants :shock: ", "flare pants", "braless go go dancers", "beatniks", "big band swing", and "Bertilak-fedoras :wink...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions to ask Parents.
Replies: 5
Views: 675

Re: Questions to ask Parents.

The only thing I ask my mom, somewhat jokingly, is what she wants me to do with her dog. Not a joke at all. I've known two old ladies whose dogs utterly disrupted their lives-- and those of their supporters-- in their old age. Elder housing and assisted living don't take dogs; things can go downhil...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you invest the proceeds [from your RMD?]
Replies: 22
Views: 1783

Re: How do you invest the proceeds [from your RMD?]

The general statement is that a RMD is simply a transfer of funds from tax protected to taxable accounts. After allowing for withdrawals to support spending, including taxes, one may need to rebalance the asset allocation according to what funds are bought in taxable and what funds might be sold and...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4746

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

I completely agree that the graph doesn't reflect inflation, which is a huge problem given that the prime risk we're talking about in this thread is inflation. But I also wanted to complain that he was posting a logarithmic scale graph and then specifically complaining that there's no upward u shap...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 232
Views: 9926

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

The conditional probability of failure given known lower returns for investments will be higher than the unconditional probability of failure given no knowledge of investment returns other than similar to long history. The problem is how well are the future returns known to be different from the lon...

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