Search found 20905 matches

by dbr
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How efficiently are my investments working?
Replies: 15
Views: 672

Re: How efficiently are my investments working?

Regarding a gain of 60%, if an investment had an average return of 10% with a 25% standard deviation, then roughly speaking 60% is two SDs above the average, thus the return is higher than about 98% of the possible outcomes, roughly speaking. If this is an unfamiliar way of putting the result, then ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How efficiently are my investments working?
Replies: 15
Views: 672

Re: How efficiently are my investments working?

The conclusion in this case is that you had significantly large gains during this year. Otherwise there is little that can be said and nothing about efficiency, a word that has a technical definition related to how much risk was taken to get that return.
by dbr
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 38
Views: 3087

Re: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads

A common quote that I see floating around here is Warren Buffett's famous "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful". Sounds like words of wisdom, but I just realized that is market timing. How do Bogleheads reconcile this? I don't invest by sound bite and ...
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 1997

Re: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio

It kind of seems like there is a thought here that it is automatically negative to combine portfolios.The only overlap here is some treasuries which is a positive for me. I really just do not get it I guess.So what you are saying is a portfolio of small cap value,large cap value,treasuries and some...
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Desktop Computer - Still relevant? Good investment?
Replies: 63
Views: 4117

Re: Desktop Computer - Still relevant? Good investment?

We each have a desktop and probably always will. For us it is the most suitable machine by far. We don't use ultra high end machines. And, yes, we own a portable computing device or two. There has been no preference between Mac and PC.
by dbr
Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio
Replies: 37
Views: 1997

Re: Combining Wellesley and the Larry Portfolio

Unless you are designating separate accounts for specifically different purposes you can't have more than one portfolio. It doesn't exist logically. Mixing up Wellesley/Wellington, Larry, three funds, LMP, risk, portfolios or whatever description is just a mixed up portfolio that has some properties...
by dbr
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull/Sell your stock before dividend date or after dividend date?
Replies: 9
Views: 1067

Re: Bull/Sell your stock before dividend date or after dividend date?

grabiner wrote: Leaving $10,000 out of the market for a week is likely to cost you more than that $8.


At an expected excess return of 6% about $12, to be specific.
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4699

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

There seems to be an investment "trend" or cycle at work here based on past and present events. This is not unlike "hot pants :shock: ", "flare pants", "braless go go dancers", "beatniks", "big band swing", and "Bertilak-fedoras :wink...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4699

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

There seems to be an investment "trend" or cycle at work here based on past and present events. This is not unlike "hot pants :shock: ", "flare pants", "braless go go dancers", "beatniks", "big band swing", and "Bertilak-fedoras :wink...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions to ask Parents.
Replies: 5
Views: 666

Re: Questions to ask Parents.

The only thing I ask my mom, somewhat jokingly, is what she wants me to do with her dog. Not a joke at all. I've known two old ladies whose dogs utterly disrupted their lives-- and those of their supporters-- in their old age. Elder housing and assisted living don't take dogs; things can go downhil...
by dbr
Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you invest the proceeds [from your RMD?]
Replies: 22
Views: 1770

Re: How do you invest the proceeds [from your RMD?]

The general statement is that a RMD is simply a transfer of funds from tax protected to taxable accounts. After allowing for withdrawals to support spending, including taxes, one may need to rebalance the asset allocation according to what funds are bought in taxable and what funds might be sold and...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4699

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

I completely agree that the graph doesn't reflect inflation, which is a huge problem given that the prime risk we're talking about in this thread is inflation. But I also wanted to complain that he was posting a logarithmic scale graph and then specifically complaining that there's no upward u shap...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?
Replies: 215
Views: 8886

Re: Is a 4% plus CPI withdrawal rate actually aggressive?

The conditional probability of failure given known lower returns for investments will be higher than the unconditional probability of failure given no knowledge of investment returns other than similar to long history. The problem is how well are the future returns known to be different from the lon...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?
Replies: 60
Views: 4699

Re: Bonds Are Riskier Than You Think? Article implications for today?

When you say "heafty amount of tips" what do you mean? I see Target 2015 has about 10% in the Short Term Inflation fund. Best, Cody Those funds do not have hefty amounts of TIPS. I believe Vanguard attempts some sort of correlation (lack of) benefit in adding some TIPS. A better argument ...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Strategy
Replies: 19
Views: 1011

Re: Safe Withdrawal Strategy

You might be interested in reading here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal I don't personally endorse or not endorse this approach. Regarding your proposal, cutting your income from the portfolio in half depending on portfolio value is not exactly a practical way to pay ...
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How important is 401k/403b's greater protection against creditors?
Replies: 15
Views: 879

Re: How important is 401k/403b's greater protection against creditors?

There is a difference between bankruptcy credit protection and non-bankruptcy liabilities and the issue is state dependent.
by dbr
Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on what to do with CD coming due
Replies: 10
Views: 843

Re: Advice on what to do with CD coming due

Here is an example that CDs are "not safe" because when they renew interest rates may be low. Interest rates are low on all fixed income now so welcome to 2017. But seriously, if you need to keep the principal free of fluctuations in value and safe from default you can buy another CD and g...
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Cost of Holding Cash
Replies: 4
Views: 763

Re: The Cost of Holding Cash

Thanks lack_ey. Yes, I suppose I was expecting a bigger drag by holding that much cash; and was surprised to see it doesn't make too much of a difference. Of course, my assumptions could be wrong. A larger equity premium or higher than expected inflation would make cash look worse. Although, inflat...
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 88 Year Old Mother - advice needed
Replies: 15
Views: 947

Re: 88 Year Old Mother - advice needed

Why she wants more return would be a good question. In her personal and financial situation what she has is fine. Otherwise a balanced index fund of the conservative or "income" variety is a possibility, as suggested by others. I agree that how she would react to loss of money is critical ...
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10254

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

Looked at an annuity calculator again: If my living expenses are 2% of my portfolio. I would have to give up about 35% of my portfolio to cover my expenses in an annuity. Seeing that decline in the portfolio is what always throws me down the steps. Then a 35% decline in the market is not unheard of...
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10254

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

In any case an SPIA involves risk pooling the longevity risk and is not directly comparable to an investment. It is true that inflation concerns and low interest rates have to be taken into account which is why waiting longer and buying in stages makes sense. I think the case to have annuitized inco...
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru Forester - Harsh ride
Replies: 21
Views: 2310

Re: Subaru Forester - Harsh ride

For a lot of people, if sticking to Subaru, the solution to Forester ride and noise objections is to buy an Outback instead. This is just a factual observation and not a snarky comment. This does not exclude that tire based improvements might not be helpful.
by dbr
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5000

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

It seems to me a benchmark is meaningless unless the intent is to match the benchmark. This is true of an index fund that exists to match its index and is not performing correctly if it doesn't, either above or below benchmark. Otherwise comparison to benchmarks is an irrelevant apples to oranges co...
by dbr
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which is currently the most expensive asset class?
Replies: 4
Views: 384

Re: Which is currently the most expensive asset class?

What I am wondering is if one can really nail down which is the most outrageously priced asset at a moment besides just having a general idea. No, you can't. You can't even establish for sure that there is any asset that is outrageously priced at any particular time. If you want to look around for ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10254

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

At a 2% withdrawal I'd no longer worry about shallow risk and would completely focus on what I could do about deep risk. How much you need to worry about shallow risk depends to some extent on your asset allocation. Even at 2%, if you were invested in 100% stock, shallow risk at the wrong time (ie ...
by dbr
Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large, Medium, Small Cap Index Funds
Replies: 12
Views: 750

Re: Large, Medium, Small Cap Index Funds

What's the best way to think of large, medium, and small cap index funds? Is it as simple as large offers less risk and less gain than medium and small? Are there any market conditions to be aware of when determining where to place funds? The finance theoretical analysis is the Fama-French model of...
by dbr
Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?
Replies: 39
Views: 3068

Re: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?

It seems to be a general result that sustainability of a portfolio is very sensitive to withdrawal rate and not very sensitive to asset allocation. The only bad allocation at moderate withdrawal rates is one with very little stock. Whether very little is 20%, 30%, or 40% is a little hard to say. The...
by dbr
Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stick with Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 7
Views: 1073

Re: Stick with Vanguard Total Bond Index

Investors in your situation should pray for real interest rates to go up as soon as possible so that you can get more decent returns from bonds. Initially bond prices will fall but increased rates with reinvestment will eventually compensate for that fall and deliver greater return for the rest of y...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VTIVX safe?
Replies: 21
Views: 10533

Re: Is VTIVX safe?

I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in. I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preache...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is VTIVX safe?
Replies: 21
Views: 10533

Re: Is VTIVX safe?

I am pretty new at "investing" and I have put a substantial amount on VTIVX (Target Retirement 2045), and I have already lost probably 15% - 20% of what I have put in. I will admit it is highly stressful, and I have thought of selling, but I do know the buy and hold mantra that is preache...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Who would quit playing if they already won?
Replies: 106
Views: 10254

Re: Who would quit playing if they already won?

Assume 30x Income = 1x Let's say 2x or 3x. Where would you "put aside the 1x? Where 1x = Y Then "Y"= 100% Vanguard Total Bond Market? or "Y" = 100% various Treasuries from Treasury Direct. or ??? j Me? Assuming your life expectancy is somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 yea...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing 101
Replies: 6
Views: 598

Re: Rebalancing 101

A first thought is how did you arrive at 50/50 in the first place? This leads to asking how you know the right asset allocation for a virtual tax adjusted portfolio is the same as the right asset allocation for the actual portfolio. An article that addresses this issue is in the Wiki: https://www.bo...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

RE S&P 500 versus small cap value: "expected higher return" is certainly one consideration. Another consideration is time. Looking at returns over a five year period just isn't long enough. Most of us would be happy with a return on portfolio 1% higher than the historical average. For...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

misterno, In fact, the small cap value had been underperformed the market index for the last 9 to 10 years. And, it may continue for another 10 years. KlangFool What? I am shocked here. Thank god I did not switch from SP 500 Index to small cap value yet. If the historical facts don't support it whi...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards vs. Cash
Replies: 123
Views: 6362

Re: Credit cards vs. Cash

Experimental findings that people spend more with plastic (credit and debit) than cash are solid. Bogleheads who claim that their expenses do not depend on the method deceive themselves. It's a common thread among lay people to reject behavioral economics findings as not applicable to them. Experts...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can I unify all my investment accounts in one?
Replies: 39
Views: 1852

Re: Can I unify all my investment accounts in one?

No, I'm not talking about viewing what I have. This is more about, say, I have a good stock/fund I want to buy, I want to be able to just buy once, instead of 5 times. The reason is that usually we don't buy once thing, but for diversified reason we have to buy a couple, say 3-4. Now multiple with ...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Planner for my Parents
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Re: Financial Planner for my Parents

I would recommend an elder law attorney to address all issues such as estate, POA's, health care directive, etc. I would not let a person entering possible lack of ability to manage their affairs come within a million miles of the financial services industry without you having the power in place to ...
by dbr
Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax document with amount in box 1d
Replies: 8
Views: 359

Re: Tax document with amount in box 1d

If you are in Turbo Tax in the section of investment income (labeled as 1099B) subsection for stocks, bonds, etc. the program will ask you for the 1d amounts for each transaction you have to enter. If you are under 1099-MISC or interest and dividend income 1099-INT or 1099-DIV maybe there is no line...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

You invest in a total stock market fund and a bond fund and select the proportion of each to roughly target the available risk and return. The expected return will be the weighted average of the returns, and, simplistically, the standard deviation of the portfolio will be the root mean square of th...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

You invest in a total stock market fund and a bond fund and select the proportion of each to roughly target the available risk and return. The expected return will be the weighted average of the returns, and, simplistically, the standard deviation of the portfolio will be the root mean square of th...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Capital Losses
Replies: 16
Views: 396

Re: Short Term Capital Losses

Ok, my understanding was not correct. I followed Schedule D closely, and I understand how it works. This raises a related question. IIRC, I have seen suggestions on Bogleheads that short term losses are preferable to long term losses. Is this true, and if so, what is the preference? I am not sure. ...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Short Term Capital Losses
Replies: 16
Views: 396

Re: Short Term Capital Losses

You are missing the following sequence: 1. Long term losses and gains are netted against each other. Short term losses and gains are netted against each other. 2. Net long term results are netted against net short term results. 3. The result of 2., if a loss, is taken against ordinary income up to $...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 1568

Re: How to increase risk and return incrementally in a portfolio?

You invest in a total stock market fund and a bond fund and select the proportion of each to roughly target the available risk and return. The expected return will be the weighted average of the returns, and, simplistically, the standard deviation of the portfolio will be the root mean square of the...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding 401k rate of return?
Replies: 11
Views: 697

Re: Understanding 401k rate of return?

The fancy math one wants to do is called internal rate of return (IRR) which can be done by the XIRR function in Excel. The method is one of iterative approximation. The best explanation of this calculation that I have seen is the one provided in my 401k plan as the description of what they are calc...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching portfolio - 3-fund with slight tilt to Larry Porfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 1158

Re: Switching portfolio - 3-fund with slight tilt to Larry Porfolio

zenb wrote:
dbr wrote:What is LP?


Larry Portfolio. I found this forum posts explain it succinctlyhttps://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=145409#p2166189. In a nutshell diversification based on factors (beta, size, value)


I am very familiar with it but did not recognize the acronym.
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit cards vs. Cash
Replies: 123
Views: 6362

Re: Credit cards vs. Cash

Most of what I spend in a month couldn't be paid in cash even if I wanted to. The days of taking an envelope of currency down to the phone company office to pay the phone bill are long gone.
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Forbes Article - Best Vanguard funds for retirement
Replies: 12
Views: 858

Re: Forbes Article - Best Vanguard funds for retirement

One could also argue that any article with "best" in the title is going to be worthless at best, and more likely actually harmful. Now in defense of that, I recall Larry Swedroe once mentioning that his series of books got "best" in the titles not from his choice but because the ...
by dbr
Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401k Record Keeping Fee
Replies: 87
Views: 10374

Re: 401k Record Keeping Fee

Another question on whether our 401k account is getting ripped off on fees. Small publishing company, based in New York City. Approximately 80 employees, total 401(k) assets in the region of $900,000. We switched our fund administrator from MassMutual (ranked dead last for 401(k) plan sponsors) to ...

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