Search found 18954 matches

by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prepaid part of mortgage counted in AA?
Replies: 14
Views: 394

Re: Prepaid part of mortgage counted in AA?

Yes, your net worth is higher because you have knocked down a liability. Most people would not try to put the asset value of their home into the investment asset allocation because it would be too difficult to assess the expected return and risk commensurate with those properties for stocks and bonds.
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) Question?
Replies: 24
Views: 8213

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) Question?

Help.... Vanguard just moved all of my Money Market funds into VMMXX without my consent.... Happen to anyone else? "A change to the settlement fund is now in progress for this account" was the message when I logged in. Yes, to everybody. Similar in kind moves also true at other brokers re...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Private Wealth Management - Vanguard or ML
Replies: 15
Views: 924

Re: Private Wealth Management - Vanguard or ML

it is sad to see people of even modest means abused like this. You just described the business model for 90%+ of the "financial services" industry. I would go with "criminal", "pure evil", or "loathesome" instead of "sad" but that is just me. OP, ch...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: short term (1 yr) investing strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 419

Re: short term (1 yr) investing strategy

One year and investing is a contradiction in terms. Just keep the money in a savings account.
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Planning for the "new normal": how?
Replies: 27
Views: 1673

Re: Planning for the "new normal": how?

You will find that life itself is far more uncertain than any measly planning for retirement decades out. Do prudent things now and revise the plan as life happens.
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule - Asset Allocation
Replies: 60
Views: 4622

Re: 4% rule - Asset Allocation

...follow the 4% rule. Another commenter said something similar, but let me be more specific. The 4% rule should be used in the accumulation stage of life - you will likely have enough to retire if your planned expenses are less than 4% of your portfolio. Withdrawing exactly 4% each year regardless...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

No, it is the fact that the stock market in the 20th century was an alternation of decades long secular bull and bear markets. Take a look at the stock market from say 1900 to now and note long periods such as 1902 to 1924 or 1929 to 1954 or 1967 to 1980 or 2001 to 2014. Now, to be fair, those pric...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does pension affect asset allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Does pension affect asset allocation?

As for the pension, it's a major university health system with a large endowment, so I don't see them running out of $$. They did however stop offering the pension plan to new employees and I don't know the legality of whether they can retroactively take it from someone who started before they stop...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule - Asset Allocation
Replies: 60
Views: 4622

Re: 4% rule - Asset Allocation

I heard somewhere that with the 4% rule, along with the inflation added to withdrawal, a 1% mgmt fee was figured in also. Is this right? 4% rule simulations assume the performance of stock indices and do not account for losses due to expenses, fees, or taxes. Those costs would then have to be paid ...
by dbr
Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

So why have any bonds AT ALL during the accumulation phase since one does not need AT THAT TIME the safety Bonds provide? This is a really good question! You'll have to forgive the link, but I think this is an interesting topic and it inspired a lengthy explanation: Thinking Beyond Stocks Can Forti...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

Firecalc does not really give you 116 data points. It must use something like 145 years of data with the last period starting something like Jan 1986 (adding 30 years gets you through 2015 the last full year of data). That means less than 5 independent data points. Not a lot of data to hang your ha...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2052

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

I think it's worth noting that a decline in value of 50% requires a corresponding gain of 100% just to get back to even. The first chart you posted is great, but slightly misleading in this sense, as one could assume all percentages are equal when they are not. Good point, the first chart in the OP...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 2052

Re: The Fortitude Required of a Buy-and-Hold Equity Investor

IN SUM: To invest in stocks is to wager on the continued success and resiliency of global capitalism. Investors in the U.S. market have historically been rewarded with some of the highest, most consistent stock returns in the world (no future guarantees). However, for the buy-hold-rebalance investo...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 356
Views: 32179

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

My strategy is my time is for loving my family. Not wasting my time on slick deals. I will always have enough for everything I would ever want. Those who "save" more money, end up paying it as taxes or to charity. I am up for debate if anyone wants to challenge that. Its an open invitatio...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: saving without goals?
Replies: 19
Views: 1785

Re: saving without goals?

There is definitely a balance between saving for goals and investing outside retirement, such as buying a house, having a secure emergency fund, college savings for kids, etc., and building up retirement savings. One thing to keep in mind is that the opportunity to defer taxes and build tax-deferred...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Yield Junk Bonds
Replies: 40
Views: 2912

Re: High Yield Junk Bonds

Bogleheads, What are your thoughts on the high yield bond funds? More yield which means more risk. Many years ago I had a family member that invested in them that believed the dividends were everything... Technically, these are interest payments, not dividends. I tend to side with the "take yo...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 610

Re: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)

What do you mean by "place a majority of one's assets in a fund specific to one employer"? I do have a Roth set up at Vanguard that's doing its own thing in stock index funds. I had no bonds there so I thought I would start adding bonds on this account. If your stable value fund is a sing...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

Thanks, lackey, for the chart. I think people need to be aware of the long term character of this thing and of the "super secular" risk going from one century to another. That is why the underlying concept of diversification into many sources of wealth building and holding is worth looking...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

The problem is whether or not that investor has undertaken this with an understanding that this can be the outcome. If that investor is counting on having $1M without fail then his plans are at great risk. If he is OK with a plan B of $500K and really understands that, then the strategy works. The ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

... I've spoken several times for NAPFA. Many of their people are good, but mainly manage assets for a percentage of assets. ... I really am puzzled how NAPFA comes into the conversation on this forum when people are trying to get advice just precisely without an AUM fee. Why do you speak up for th...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passport Nightmare
Replies: 29
Views: 3013

Re: Passport Nightmare

If you want to read about a real nightmare try here: http://forum.elliott.org/threads/passport-office-asking-for-more-information.3311/ The resolution is in Post #98 and the Congressional Representative refused to help, but Senator Barbara Boxer did help. To save all of you reading the whole thing, ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

I've spoken several times for NAPFA. Many of their people are good, but mainly manage assets for a percentage of assets. So the NAPFA people get paid via a percentage of assets or hourly fee? I think the point was that they get paid many different ways. I agree. But in addition it is just facts of ...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

The ones on the website you mentioned appear to be retail brokers and people who manage assets for a percentage of assets. I've spoken several times for NAPFA. Many of their people are good, but mainly manage assets for a percentage of assets. That was exactly what I was mentioning. I really am puz...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

I'd also advise seeing an estate-planning attorney to make sure your wills are in good shape, especially with the young child That is another great suggestion. I personally think people would be well off to use a good attorney for estate issues and a good tax accountant for tax issues separate from...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

Another key term is "one-time review." One of the (Garrett Network) people I have consulted offers that type of review. She will come up with a comprehensive financial plan for a set fee, or a partial plan/review based at a specific life event (pre-retirement, pre-parenthood). That is a g...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

Good question. I didn't get a chance to read the other replies yet, so forgive me if this was already mentioned. Warren Buffett actually promotes this strategy for the average investor. He tells the average person who does not have the time or inclination to be an active investor to simply buy a lo...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.
Replies: 38
Views: 2198

Re: Who should my wife and I see, a Financial Advisor, planner, etc.

My experience with NAPFA was a tendency to say they would work for an hourly fee but to in fact bait and switch to AUM. Your results may be fine but I would always be very cautious not to fall for a sales pitch after a come-on. I do not believe NAPFA is a guarantee of anything. I have heard well but...
by dbr
Mon Jul 25, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)
Replies: 6
Views: 610

Re: What bond fund do you recommend (VBTIX, VAIPX, PIMCO Stable Income Fund)

A plain vanilla stable value fund uses insurance contracts to guarantee stable principal but there is no guarantee on the yield. Such funds currently tend to yield around 1% compared to as high as 4%-5% some years ago. Yields tend to lag trends in overall interest rates. There have been people who h...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

I think some circumspection should apply here. Two points come to mind. 1. Opting for a very uncertain outcome should be done only if one needs to do it. The question is what objective does one have that requires a 100% stock allocation rather than one that is more predictable but may not meet the m...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 168
Views: 11849

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

Gifting unequally is a topic of interest/concern to me. We have 2 children. Both are doing well, but one has 3 children, a stay-at-home wife and very high expenses, mostly children related. The other has a wife with a excellent job and no children. We've been helping the son with children out often...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: convert mutual fund to index fund
Replies: 29
Views: 1877

Re: convert mutual fund to index fund

I never heard back from him but after looking at the account activity I did notice that there was an investment advising fee that is being deducted every month that turned out to be right at 1.4% with the addition of the mutual fund fees I would be at right around 2.25% in fees. I also have the sam...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

I guess you are saying stocks actually are not risky if held for long term. Good to know, but it really isn't volatility we need to worry about--it's the lack of volatility. If 30 years 'till retirement, when does the long term change to shorter term? Paul Well, actually never considering that a re...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!
Replies: 25
Views: 1990

Re: USA vs. International Stock Index PERFORMANCE. Please reassure Me!

Lafder wrote:
I believe there is probably a sweet spot between 0-50%, but only time will tell what that was. :)



A sweet spot identified ex post is probably more like sour grapes or maybe wine gone bad :(
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 1038

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

In that case, Wellington would be even better as it takes less risk on the bond side. An average duration of 7.1 years which is somewhat more than my Intermediate Term Bond funds which are 5-6 and my favorite GNMA fund which is about 3. So less risk than Long Term Treasuries but more risk than most...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?
Replies: 168
Views: 11849

Re: How many folks choose to give inheritance to their children in unequal portions?

I don't understand why grandparents leave estates to grandchildren. In my family things have always passed to children, and then what's left passes to children, etc. each generation uses and manages money as they see fit. To try to leave to grandchildren seems to me to invite the kind of weird frac...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]
Replies: 19
Views: 1038

Re: SPY / TLT Portfolio [SPDR S&P 500 / iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond]

What are your thoughts on this 2 fund portfolio? For those not familiar it is sp500 and long term treasuries. The 2 have a negative correlation. As a portfolio they've produced 9% returns with only a 20% draw down going back to 1972. I believe the Vanguard Wellington fund is largely based on these ...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

If you are counting on making the worst case, 100% stocks doesn't help hardly at all. If my math is correct stocks did 20% better in the worse case scenario. How is that insignificant? I would be quite sure that comparison is well within the errors of estimation. I admit to failing to meet my own f...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this strange piece of scientific glassware?
Replies: 36
Views: 3362

Re: What is this strange piece of scientific glassware?

Are people still using mercury, even in research labs? Have you had to replace your home thermostat(s) with non-mercury containing alternatives? I've never owned a mercury containing thermostat. I do know people who replaced them before selling a house. It's less than $20 so why not? just hope the ...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?
Replies: 107
Views: 5218

Re: Help Me Understand: Why Shouldn't AA Be 100% Stocks During Accumulation Phase?

A 100% stock allocation produces both upside and downside uncertainty on top of a generally positive rise in wealth that outruns a more conservative allocation. The question is when does uncertainty in the outcome become more of a problem than not getting so much growth. An interesting way to see ho...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% In REITS?
Replies: 34
Views: 2416

Re: 20% In REITS?

I think the sweet spot is zero additional to TSM. That doesn't mean it is a mistake to add some concentration in REITs but I don't think there is a huge benefit to do so. 20% of the whole portfolio would be pretty extreme. One would ask what suggests this option right now? I don't think messing arou...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Need portfolio assistance for future widow]
Replies: 3
Views: 331

Re: Confused widow needs portfolio assistance

Looking ahead to the time when my wife becomes a widow, I need to set her up with a knowledgeable professional who can answer financial questions, clarify complex investment matters and provide a little hand-holding from time to time. I do not want to set her up with an annuity salesman or so-calle...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does pension affect asset allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Does pension affect asset allocation?

In general retirement is an exercise in successive approximations. There is huge uncertainty at the beginning and a clearer and clearer picture at the end. The best you can do to start is save responsibly and make good investment choices such as not missing out on tax deferred plans and investing at...
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does pension affect asset allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Does pension affect asset allocation?

Benjamin Graham once recommended that stock allocation be between 25% and 75%. I think that is a good idea. I do not think taking investment advice from a mutual fund company is a good idea. That is what you are doing when you follow the glide path Vanguard has arrived at for their retirement funds....
by dbr
Sun Jul 24, 2016 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is this strange piece of scientific glassware?
Replies: 36
Views: 3362

Re: What is this strange piece of scientific glassware?

People have been blase about all kinds of things and mercury would be far from the worst. There are certainly things in any research lab today that are more harmful than mercury and there always have been. Awareness and regulation regarding handling is much improved, we hope. The real reason a gauge...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does pension affect asset allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Does pension affect asset allocation?

Good information. Good question and good replies from our shipmates. On my side of the house, our pensions and social security checks had NO effect on setting our asset allocation. Click here for a related article from our good shipmate Mike Piper. Thanks for reading. Don't forget that planning whe...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement, House, Kids - How to afford all three?
Replies: 61
Views: 4580

Re: Retirement, House, Kids - How to afford all three?

Congrats for looking at your situation and trying to see how to make it work. I would say families in your general situation compromise your assumptions in one or more of the following ways: 1. The wife still works. That is pretty much necessary any more. Childcare is a scramble. As an aside, maybe ...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1568

Re: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?

Well, it turns out I can only invest in the mutual funds available in my account. So I am thinking International stocks, REIT and small cap value. How should that affect my asset allocation outside that account? Thanks. Don't diversify - pick one of the riskier, hopefully high return funds and roll...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does pension affect asset allocation?
Replies: 19
Views: 1679

Re: Does pension affect asset allocation?

Roughly, very roughly, a possible goal is to have 25x to 30x residual living expenses in the portfolio at retirement. That corresponds to a SWR of about 4% to 3% per year. The question then gets to be given the expected return from the portfolio does the AA of 80 / 20 allow you to get to your goal ...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1568

Re: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?

Well, it turns out I can only invest in the mutual funds available in my account. So I am thinking International stocks, REIT and small cap value. How should that affect my asset allocation outside that account? Thanks. What fraction of your total invested assets is in this fund and will be in it a...
by dbr
Sat Jul 23, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?
Replies: 16
Views: 1568

Re: How best to take advantage of 'Guaranteed Return" ?

Thanks for the answer, Tanelorn. This account was created many years ago to replace pension and it has long been discontinued for new employees. If I treat this account as bond fund, I will own 0 bond because the account balance is bigger than my bond asset. Then do I forget about re-balance and ju...

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