Search found 20185 matches

by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: investment horizon vis-a-vis asset allocation
Replies: 1
Views: 94

Re: investment horizon vis-a-vis asset allocation

It seems that many discussions (web tools, articles, etc) address asset allocation in terms of the investment horizon, or "when are you going to need the money?" Sounds reasonable to me! But as I approach retirement in a couple years and think about AA and see these web tools, etc, that a...
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 20
Views: 974

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

jebmke wrote:
dbr wrote:This is a legitimate question which does bedevil the concept of using SWR as a plan.

Answers?

Don't use SWR as a plan.

It is more of a "curb feeler"


Yep. I like that characterization.
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 20
Views: 974

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

First no one knows where we are... I've been hearing for the past 2 to 3 years how we are at a high and yesterday we hit another new high for US Stocks. Who knows, perhaps we have another new high to come? And another... Or perhaps yesterday was the short-term high. The reality is I take my SWR ann...
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 20
Views: 974

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

I think many responders missed the question, or I did. I am assuming the context for this question is that one sets the amount of withdrawal by multiplying the portfolio value AT THE TIME OF RETIREMENT, aka the initial portfolio value, by the chosen SWR. The study then assumes fixed real withdrawals...
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal frequency
Replies: 11
Views: 593

Re: Withdrawal frequency

As needed.
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Options Help
Replies: 17
Views: 812

Re: Stock Options Help

luckyc1423 wrote:So I would assume by the end of next year the share price will jump to atleast $5.50


There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. Don't make any big plans right away.
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?
Replies: 16
Views: 1256

Re: Did Buffett really believe the stock market went nowhere from 1964 to 1981?

The DOW went from 874 to 875. That IS exactly nowhere. He said exactly what he meant and meant what he said. If you have a problem with that take it up with Mr. Buffett :) So, seriously, this is just another example of a well-known person, from whom we would like to extract insight and advice about ...
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation protection for retiree portfolio
Replies: 22
Views: 1639

Re: Inflation protection for retiree portfolio

Now I think the best inflation protection is to make as much money before the Inflation cycle. This way, when the buying power is reduced, I will have more dollars. If Inflation never occurs, I'd be rich with more $. :greedy In a sense this is exactly right. If one runs a retirement withdrawal mode...
by dbr
Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 2972

Re: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?

Why doesn't the "y" axis on the graph have a value for the lower line? It implies 9%, however I don't believe that bonds have consistently returned 9+%. Am I missing something? The exact location of that line depends on the period from which the data comes. It is possible that the return ...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Cash Equivalents" ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1700

Re: "Cash Equivalents" ?

Cash equivalent is a technical term, a term of art, with a definition , as mak1277 stated earlier in the thread. I think we'd be better off using it properly, just like we should use yield to mean yield and not coupon unless we intend to be misunderstood, like the caterpillar . As individuals, of c...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Cash Equivalents" ?
Replies: 21
Views: 1700

Re: "Cash Equivalents" ?

Please help me understand what the term "cash equivalents" refers to I assume it would include money market accounts, savings accounts and CDs. But would it also include short term bonds and/or short term treasuries? What else might be considered "cash equivalents"? If thus is c...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Offsetting Carryover Capital Losses with Gains
Replies: 11
Views: 359

Re: Offsetting Carryover Capital Losses with Gains

The precedence is that long term losses offset long term gains and short term losses offset short term gains. After that remaining losses offset remaining gains. After that remaining losses offset ordinary income up to $3000. You can fail to get the $3000 offset if you let your long term losses get ...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting Mom's IRA at Age 70 - Advice?
Replies: 10
Views: 932

Re: Starting Mom's IRA at Age 70 - Advice?

One thing to absolutely not do is allow some financial services organization aka advisor=salesman take your 401K as a rollover. This is among the lowest hanging fruit for the predators, and the sharks are circling. Look carefully at the relative costs. Even Vanguard if you fall for a 0.3% PAS fee co...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?
Replies: 38
Views: 1809

Re: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?

Sorry to take this slightly off topic, but for those who have used the CBP app - does it disable global entry entirely, or just for that one entry? For example, if I keep global entry for business use, could the family not get global entry and we just use the app when we travel together? The downsi...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Options Help
Replies: 17
Views: 812

Re: Stock Options Help

As far as timing of options exercise, the "normal" procedure is to exercise shortly before expiration at ten years (usually). This is especially so if option grants are going to be an annual compensation benefit. I don't think that's the "normal procedure" at all. For most peopl...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Options Help
Replies: 17
Views: 812

Re: Stock Options Help

As far as timing of options exercise, the "normal" procedure is to exercise shortly before expiration at ten years (usually). This is especially so if option grants are going to be an annual compensation benefit. Others are correct that the situation if you expect to be fired or laid off i...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Starting Mom's IRA at Age 70 - Advice?
Replies: 10
Views: 932

Re: Starting Mom's IRA at Age 70 - Advice?

It could be staying in the 401K is a reasonable option. That would depend on what investments are available there. Appropriate one fund investments could include Target Retirement Income or Life Strategy Income. You have to decide on a stock allocation and shop through the Life Strategy funds for a ...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 148
Views: 14015

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

Speaking for myself only, long time reader, we read and post on these topics because they are truly fascinating and go to the core of what modern society thinks about money, and how money actually works psychologically at the most basic level. And we can get real help or be helpful. I'm in this guy...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I estimating these retirement future earnings correctly?
Replies: 13
Views: 1197

Re: Am I estimating these retirement future earnings correctly?

Do you agree with my analysis and predictions? Starting with $250,000 in retirement by end of 2016, at age 30, with plans to retire at age 60 .....here is how I estimated my retirement fund 30 years down the road, in the year 2047 PlayingLife, Look around at your employer and your industry. How lik...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason not to sprinkle in some small cap index?
Replies: 14
Views: 1211

Re: Any reason not to sprinkle in some small cap index?

The basic answer is that if you have to ask here, then you should not. But you can read here: https://www.amazon.com/Your-Complete-Guide-Factor-Based-Investing-ebook/dp/B01N7FCW2D/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1481120436&sr=8-2&keywords=swedroe+factor+investing and here: https://www.bogleheads....
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I estimating these retirement future earnings correctly?
Replies: 13
Views: 1197

Re: Am I estimating these retirement future earnings correctly?

I don't think this problem has a meaningful answer without running a statistical model that includes the variability of the return from year to year and also the possibility that both the mean and dispersion of the return are statistics that have to be estimated. In other words you have to run a Mon...
by dbr
Wed Dec 07, 2016 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I fill out survey evaluation of my boss?
Replies: 40
Views: 2961

Re: Should I fill out survey evaluation of my boss?

They ran 360's at Megacorp. As far as I know everyone filled them out and I never heard of any repercussions. On the other hand, while some bosses were better than other ones, there was never anyone who would have received extremely negative comments. Your case is different. If you anticipate this b...
by dbr
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping Parents Safely Grow Cash
Replies: 2
Views: 393

Re: Helping Parents Safely Grow Cash

I bonds are more stable because they are inflation indexed. Savings and CDs would be fine as well. You should not invest in bonds as you could see losses.

You are not going to "grow" cash in any meaningful way as that is not what fixed income investments do.
by dbr
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New cash into a retirement portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 582

Re: New cash into a retirement portfolio

I recently received an inheritance. I'm in my 70s and retired. I know that I have way too much cash now in my portfolio but, it's my understanding that US stocks are overvalued, as are foreign stocks, although less so. Bond fund returns don't look good for the immediate future either. My portfolio ...
by dbr
Tue Dec 06, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 2972

Re: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?

I am talking about that if a 100% stock portfolio is safer than a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio if no principal withdrawal is needed, in terms of all risks, including market downturns, inflation, and longevity, etc.[/quote] Well, the 100% stock portfolio will fall farther in percentage terms during a s...
by dbr
Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 2972

Re: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?

As Swedroe says, asset allocation should be based on your willingness , need and ability to take risk. Many people, as they age, they are no longer willing to face a 40% downturn in stock price (like 2008). This goes to willingness but also to (psychological) ability. Bonds moderate that downturn i...
by dbr
Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?
Replies: 24
Views: 2972

Re: A very safe no-bond asset allocation?

Many retirees say that their pension and social security cover their basic expenses, and their portfolio provides money for fun activities, such as travel, grandchildren, etc. Yet they maintain an asset allocation of around 50/50 (stock/bond). If my social security covers 50% of my living expenses,...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Vanguard misleading investors with BNDX?
Replies: 11
Views: 1850

Re: Isn't Vanguard misleading investors with BNDX?

There are the fund's MANAGEMENT FEE, which is the reported ER. But all funds have other costs, including trading (bid-offer and market impact) and hedging in this case. They aren't in any fund's ER, they just reduce returns. Larry To be clear, I didn't mean the investor's bid/ask spreads. I read on...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?
Replies: 38
Views: 1809

Re: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?

It is just the form you would fill out on paper or now at a kiosk but fillable on your device and uplinked via wifi to the authorities when you enter the customs hall. After they accept your entry your phone is your paperwork. As with those other procedures it is for the family and not just the ind...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?
Replies: 38
Views: 1809

Re: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?

I recently came back to Logan using their Mobile Passport program. Faster than every global entry folks. I probably was the only person using it on that flight so maybe that's why. But hey, enjoy it before everybody catches on. http://www.mobilepassport.us/ Just how does this work? Which mobile dev...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?
Replies: 38
Views: 1809

Re: CBP (INS) Global Entry program worth it?

+1000! While I have heard good things about the new CBP app that supposedly speeds up the standard process, I think this program is still in early stage and not available at all entry points. I've used Global Entry dozens of times, without any problems and only a 1-2 person wait at most. It also en...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't Vanguard misleading investors with BNDX?
Replies: 11
Views: 1850

Re: Isn't Vanguard misleading investors with BNDX?

I think this is an interesting question. Funds do have costs that are not reported in the ER and may or may not be easy to find elsewhere. But also consider that something like a bid/ask spread to buy the fund may cost the investor but is certainly not a cost to the fund. Bid/ask costs and brokerage...
by dbr
Mon Dec 05, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Fund VWINX
Replies: 10
Views: 2112

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Fund VWINX

I am retiring soon and looking to combine three 401K's and one IRA account. Thinking of putting it all, about $200,000 in one fund that I can draw 3% a year from with a reasonable expectation of doing this and still having some money left for grandkids after I pass. I like the Wellesley fund, but I...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to define "Retirement?"
Replies: 38
Views: 2190

Re: How to define "Retirement?"

What is the reason a definition is needed?
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which country in Africa to visit?
Replies: 45
Views: 2265

Re: Which country in Africa to visit?

South Africa or Namibia. Namibia requires a visa. No, it doesn't. Just a valid US passport with 6 months or more left before expiration. I didn't say that. You cut off the rest of the statement about the fact that the "visa" is really just an entry fee payable at port of entry. Except the...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement with $8M in investments
Replies: 148
Views: 14015

Re: Retirement with $8M in investments

It seems unlikely you want all your assets in stocks on retirement. Then again you may be wealthy enough and have little enough concern with the consequences that 100% stocks is fine. It might help to know what you have altogether. I would echo the suggestion by Livesoft. The brutal truth is that at...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which country in Africa to visit?
Replies: 45
Views: 2265

Re: Which country in Africa to visit?

If you search for flights to South Africa from LAX (as an example), you'll find cheap prices on Ethiopian Air. Be careful. The airline is fine, as I recall. But if you connect through ADD (as the cheapest flights do), South Africa will require that you have a certificate verifying that you've been ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 32 GB or 128GB storage for a new smartphone?
Replies: 35
Views: 2633

Re: 32 GB or 128GB storage for a new smartphone?

what is on your phone?? 128GB?! 16 is adequate and 32 generous IMO Like I said, I could load more than 128GB in photographs and videos and would exceed 32 GB in music files if I were to use the phone that way. The actual free storage on a 32GB device can be exceeded pretty easily with all kinds of ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service
Replies: 28
Views: 2376

Re: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service

You can go to this list of executives and starting with Dave Clark write a letter or email to one person at a time on the executive chain and wait for a reply about a week or two. In your letter politely state only the facts of your order, the existence of a confirmation, the fact that the order wa...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which country in Africa to visit?
Replies: 45
Views: 2265

Re: Which country in Africa to visit?

South Africa or Namibia. Namibia requires a visa. No, it doesn't. Just a valid US passport with 6 months or more left before expiration. I didn't say that. You cut off the rest of the statement about the fact that the "visa" is really just an entry fee payable at port of entry. The actual...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

Here are some more examples of what it means to take dividends as income. For Vanguard total bond a 1986 investment would have lost 35% of its real value today and would be paying 20% of the dividend it paid then, in real dollars. An investment in Vanguard total stock would have almost four times it...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which country in Africa to visit?
Replies: 45
Views: 2265

Re: Which country in Africa to visit?

South Africa or Namibia. Namibia requires a visa, but my understanding not to be relied on, is that this is one of those types of tourist visa that for US passport holders can be obtained at the port of entry. Yes, the US State Department says: https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/country/...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

Yes, that is fair enough, but you have to be careful to be self-consistent in what you are saying. The outcome is that he does not have to sell any of the original shares intended for the inheritances. But what the inheritances "should" be is the eventually accrued value of those investme...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service
Replies: 28
Views: 2376

Re: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service

Thanks for the feedback. As for the very good point about not mentioning the price change, I gave it a try. They simply said (paraphrasing): Sorry for the mix-up. We are not sure what happened. Please place your order again. Which of course means ordering it at the higher price point. Sigh! And, at...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

Have to admit I don't think of "income" except as it relates to taxes. If someone asked me what our "income" was I'd have to say I don't know. I don't keep track of things like interest and dividends in IRAs because it just doesn't matter. I could probably guess but if someone w...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

I consider it "very safe" only in so far as I'm spending a portion of portfolio income in most years and never selling funds to cover spending needs. While 3.4% has been the average dividend/cap gains income, it has ranged from 2.2% (2015) to 4.8% (2007). That isn't a valid assessment of ...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable VS Non-Taxable Accounts
Replies: 11
Views: 728

Re: Taxable VS Non-Taxable Accounts

- For overall returns, 3% would be acceptable. 4% would be comfortable and 5+% would be awesome. This is not really an answerable proposition. The problem is that that returns are highly variable from year to year. Higher returning investments also are more variable in return. To project the possib...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

If you're just tracking for yourself, it doesn't really matter what you call anything as long as you're consistent, as others have pointed out. But if you are making a distinction between income and investment returns, I would recommend bucketing dividends as investment returns. This is so you will...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?
Replies: 65
Views: 3872

Re: Do You Consider Dividends As Income?

All income is income. Where is the confusion? Well, there are postings on this thread that say yes, and there are postings on this thread that say no, and there are postings on this thread that illustrate various ways in which the answer might be yes or might be no. So I would say that where the co...
by dbr
Sun Dec 04, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service
Replies: 28
Views: 2376

Re: Advice on dealing with Amazon customer service

You're probably getting the same canned response because you keep mentioning the subsequent price change when you complain. The price change is irrelevant. Don't ask them to match anything. Just ask them why your order was cancelled: you ordered an item, you paid for it, they cancelled it without e...

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