Search found 278 matches

by convert949
Sat Jan 23, 2016 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing during retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1287

Re: Rebalancing during retirement

I believe it was Michael Kitces who suggested that in a Total Return Portfolio, one could merely withdraw their annual needs from whatever asset class is "winning" at that point in time, i.e. if stocks exceed your target, that is where you make your withdrawal. If stocks are down and bond...
by convert949
Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing during retirement
Replies: 15
Views: 1287

Re: Rebalancing during retirement

I believe it was Michael Kitces who suggested that in a Total Return Portfolio, one could merely withdraw their annual needs from whatever asset class is "winning" at that point in time, i.e. if stocks exceed your target, that is where you make your withdrawal. If stocks are down and bonds...
by convert949
Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bond Guru's... Advice needed
Replies: 4
Views: 901

Re: I bond Guru's... Advice needed

Thanks for the info... Perhaps it is set based on demand? At least I know now that nobody knows (except them) what they will do...

Best,

Bob
by convert949
Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I bond Guru's... Advice needed
Replies: 4
Views: 901

I bond Guru's... Advice needed

Well, it's that time of year again... I am eligible to purchase my annual allotment of I Bonds. I have been looking at various previous posts and have searched the Treasury Direct website and cannot find anything to indicate how the base interest rate is determined. Certainly I cannot find anything ...
by convert949
Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US
Replies: 80
Views: 5173

Re: Going from 50/50 US/Int to All US

While Jack Bogle doesn't advocate the use of International Stock for US investors, I didn't get the vibe from his Common Sense on Mutual Funds that he is anti-International. He says if you want to do it keep it to 20%. Also, he has a long chapter on RTM or Reversion to the Mean where he explains th...
by convert949
Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 134
Views: 46761

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Best summary I have ever seen! I remember when the DOW was at 900 down from 1500 and the headlines read "DOW at 3000 by years end". I always try to remember what I have learned from Jack Bogle, Wade Pfau, Larry Swedrow, Bill Bernstein and now Nisi :P Thanks to you all, I must be OK as I am...
by convert949
Wed Dec 23, 2015 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping my parents see the light with Ameriprise
Replies: 75
Views: 8178

Re: Helping my parents see the light with Ameriprise

How about buying them a copy of Bogle's Little Book Of Common Sense and asking them to read it? +1!!! As you have already broached the subject, it is an easy transition to recommending the read. This is a great time to discuss this with them as they will be approaching retirement in the next few ye...
by convert949
Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Question...
Replies: 2
Views: 292

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting Question...

I think these would be wash sales since the rule covers shares controlled by you and/or your spouse even if not reported on the same tax return. http://www.obliviousinvestor.com/tax-loss-harvesting/ and many other articles on the web, but especially IRS Publication 550. I think you can sell VFSUX a...
by convert949
Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting Question...
Replies: 2
Views: 292

Tax Loss Harvesting Question...

I currently have two bond funds with losses in two different Vanguard taxable accounts. One is titled into my trust and the other to my wife's trust. I am interested in taking all possible losses this year as I sold a significant amount of equities earlier this year to complete our adjustment to our...
by convert949
Mon Nov 09, 2015 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Bonds in Estate
Replies: 6
Views: 1266

Re: Savings Bonds in Estate

Thanks to all... I have compared the tax implications of accruing the interest on my dad's last return vs. the estate paying the tax and the difference is ~ 5 x if the estate pays. The third option of transferring the bonds in kind was never considered seriously as the bonds have a short term maturi...
by convert949
Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Bonds in Estate
Replies: 6
Views: 1266

Re: Savings Bonds in Estate

The estate is small, less than 100K, no real estate and limited expense. I have probated the will myself and will not use an attorney unless specific questions arise. (suggested by my attorney). One more thought... If I were to do this as Gill suggests, there would be no interest to the estate and t...
by convert949
Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Bonds in Estate
Replies: 6
Views: 1266

Re: Savings Bonds in Estate

Thanks Gill... I read the IRS guidelines and it was not clear if bonds cashed after death resulted in income to the estate or the individual even though the interest accrued during the decedents lifetime. In any event, that's why I wanted to proceed ASAP with cashing them in if it made sense.

Bob
by convert949
Sun Nov 08, 2015 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Savings Bonds in Estate
Replies: 6
Views: 1266

Savings Bonds in Estate

My dad passed away recently and I am executor of his estate. He and my mom (also deceased) had the proceeds of the sale of a small business in savings bonds. At this point, some have stopped paying interest and the rest will stop paying interest in less than one year so it seems like a lot of work t...
by convert949
Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Savings Bonds
Replies: 53
Views: 7158

Re: I-Savings Bonds

I purchase them yearly at max as a part of my bond allocation and as a hedge against inflation. They will probably be the last thing I spend...
by convert949
Wed Jul 08, 2015 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 161
Views: 17042

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I maintain 20% of fixed income in inflation protected bonds. I sold the last of my Vanguard TIPS fund in early 2013. Currently, we are a little underweight vs. our target for TIPS - mostly due to the annual purchase limit constraints of I-Bonds. We buy the annual limit for I-Bonds and that's what's...
by convert949
Sat Jun 20, 2015 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 86
Views: 12242

Re: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement

My equity allocation of 35% was determined by doing a bottom up evaluation of my needs over the next 30 years (I am 65). There is usually so much going on as you transition from working to retirement that I don't think most people can just keep their allocation on cruise control. Here are some of t...
by convert949
Sat Jun 20, 2015 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 86
Views: 12242

Re: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement

People who have more than enough can take a higher risk approach and do fine or take an asset preservation approach and be ok also. I believe I have more than enough and take more of an asset preservation approach e.g. 43% equities and 57% fixed income (includes a healthy allocation to CDs). I have...
by convert949
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement
Replies: 86
Views: 12242

Re: Why High Equity Allocation in Retirement

All I will say is that you may NOT know where your comfort level is until actual retirement, especially at the point that you have exhausted your human capital. Whatever you believe to be true today will most likely change once withdrawals start...

Never say Never... :wink:
by convert949
Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: "The long and short of finding bond balance."
Replies: 9
Views: 2398

Re: Vanguard: "The long and short of finding bond balance."

"Does it matter if the three types of bonds mentioned above are in one bond fund (such as Total Bond Market Fund) or in three separate funds?" I was wondering the same thing. Is there any merit to use equal amounts of Short-term, Intermediate-term, and Long-term Vanguard bond index funds ...
by convert949
Sat Jun 06, 2015 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing
Replies: 280
Views: 42099

Re: William Bernstein-When you've won the game, why keep playing

For me, it's all about structuring a portfolio that helps you "stay the course". If you look at a "Bucket" approach, everything beyond 10 years is OK to be in equities as there has never been a 10 year rolling period where equities have been negative. If you follow Bernstein, you...
by convert949
Fri Feb 20, 2015 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Risk?
Replies: 27
Views: 1720

Re: What is Risk?

The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Asset...
by convert949
Wed Feb 04, 2015 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Somewhat different approach to asset allocation
Replies: 12
Views: 1027

Re: Somewhat different approach to asset allocation

I have seen a number of articles for financial planners that take a somewhat more casual approach than Bernstein but still follows the basic idea. Have short term assets for short term needs, bonds for intermediate term needs and equities/TIPS/I Bonds for longer term needs where inflation is more of...
by convert949
Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds
Replies: 50
Views: 7307

Re: Mr. Bogle on CNBC today--International and Bonds

jnet2000 wrote:Mr. Bogle makes a good case. But I plan to stay the course and keep no more than 20% of my stock allocation in International stocks. I don't agree with everything Vanguard recommends either and plan to stay the course and not invest in International Bonds. Thanks for sharing.

+1
by convert949
Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The lowest stock allocation you plan to stay with
Replies: 79
Views: 5442

Re: The lowest stock allocation you plan to stay with

Currently 65 YO and at 35% equity. Will consider 30% at 70. Can't see going lower than that...
by convert949
Thu Jan 29, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests
Replies: 36
Views: 4437

Re: Why not a 2 fund portfolio like Bogle suggests

Part of me wonders if some people would benefit from a 2 or 3 fund portfolio but they have spent so many hours researching investment strategies that they will feel they wasted their time if they choose something so simple. My only comment is that the more I read, researched and followed the forum,...
by convert949
Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1346

Re: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds

convert949 in this post wrote: [ I ] have always followed Larry Swedroe's advice to look for 20 basis points per year of duration as a way of determining the relative risk/return of short/intermediate bond funds. By that definition, the short term fund would be advantageous as it has the same SEC y...
by convert949
Tue Jan 27, 2015 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1346

Re: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds

I was comparing the performance of short vs. intermediate term TIPS. Anyone understand what is happening with short term TIPS? Update - I guess it is all period dependent. I went all the back to the start of the ST TIPS fund (10/2012). Going back to that VTIP is down -2.75%. But VAIPX is down -10.1...
by convert949
Tue Jan 27, 2015 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1346

Re: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds

TIPS are different, and Swedroe discusses this in his books and posts. At a given yield curve, you normally go out further in duration with TIPS than with nominals. Or to put it in very crude terms, a 10-year TIPS occupies more or less the same niche as a 5-year nominal. Understood... But it would ...
by convert949
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 1194

Re: Short Term Bonds in Taxable

Hi. I know that bond funds are not tax efficient and should, in general, be kept in tax-advantaged accounts. However, I currently have both VG Short Term Investment Grade (1.70% yield) and Limited Term Tax Exempt (0.86% yield) in my taxable account. I am holding these for a shorter term savings hor...
by convert949
Tue Jan 27, 2015 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1346

Re: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds

cb474 wrote: In principle, the intermediate term fund will provide a greater return over the long run, but be more volatile, and the short-term fund with provide less return over the long run, but be less volatile. Other bogleheads I'm sure could offer a more sophisticated analysis of the distincti...
by convert949
Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 1346

Short Term TIPS vs. Intermediate Term Funds

Some time ago, I ventured into TIPS with a portion of our retirement accounts. We put 2/3 into the intermediate term fund VAIPX and 1/3 in the Short Term Index VTAPX. The split was across two accounts and the purpose was to take advantage of Admiral Shares for both purchases as well as to shorten th...
by convert949
Fri Jan 16, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of I Bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 3394

Re: Valuation of I Bonds

Basically Market Timer demonstrated that an EE bond was roughly a 20 year zero coupon bond with a put option. Basically, the doubling caused a increased present value (PV) of the EE bonds relative to the 20 year zero coupon treasury, plus the PV of the EE bond is further increased by the put option...
by convert949
Thu Jan 15, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification... Alternate Theory?
Replies: 11
Views: 1588

Re: Diversification... Alternate Theory?

Several years ago I read about Quantext, downloaded it and tried it out. I learned some things but did not fully use it. So much emphasis on correlations, the big standout disagreement I had was that the correlations change meaningfully over time. I must allow for the possibility that my impression...
by convert949
Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification... Alternate Theory?
Replies: 11
Views: 1588

Re: Diversification... Alternate Theory?

So if adding international does not improve the math, but eliminates country/ geographical risk there is still a very GOOD reason to diversify into other countries despite what an equation or computer software tells you. U.S. equity returns have been robust to say the least the last 50+ years. Are ...
by convert949
Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification... Alternate Theory?
Replies: 11
Views: 1588

Re: Diversification... Alternate Theory?

There's no theory here except possibly in the 2006 article briefly mentioned. Here there's nothing but handwaving the technical details so there's no way to get a sense of what the numbers mean in the diversification metric beyond just the qualitative overview. I tried to search for how it was comp...
by convert949
Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We miss Larry Swedroe
Replies: 38
Views: 11272

Re: We miss Larry Swedroe

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
RunningRad wrote:Count me in as a fan of Larry and his work.


Same here. :sharebeer

+1

Just finished re-reading Larry's bond book on the way to Florida...
by convert949
Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much in I bonds do you own?
Replies: 29
Views: 3416

Re: How much in I bonds do you own?

Have about $140K and buying max each year in individual and trust accounts. I like them better than TIPS...
by convert949
Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification... Alternate Theory?
Replies: 11
Views: 1588

Diversification... Alternate Theory?

I have been using an Excel based Monti Carlo Simulator called Quantext for some time to supplement other information available on the forum, books, etc. What I like about it is the ability to test changes in portfolio design based on the specific performance of actual fund (yes, I understand the lim...
by convert949
Sat Jan 03, 2015 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have too much in Municipal Bond Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 661

Re: Do I have too much in Municipal Bond Funds?

My primary concern with your portfolio is an unrelated matter. You have annuities; are they inflation-adjusted? If not, then you have considerable inflation risk, and thus most of your bonds should be inflation-adjusted. You have, and should continue to buy, I-Bonds, but beyond the I-Bond limit, yo...
by convert949
Sat Jan 03, 2015 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have too much in Municipal Bond Funds?
Replies: 4
Views: 661

Do I have too much in Municipal Bond Funds?

Having just finished my year end re-balancing of my equity holdings, I am now reviewing my bond allocations. I prefer to hold funds with the exception of I Bonds and an online Savings Account with 2-3 years cash expenses (I am 65 and retired). Our current Portfolio is as follows: SEP IRA's: Total Bo...
by convert949
Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Munis: intermediate vs. (intermediate plus limited)
Replies: 10
Views: 1916

Re: Munis: intermediate vs. (intermediate plus limited)

I do use both in taxable with VMLUX (VMLTX Admiral) and VWIUX (VWITX Admiral) in amounts determined by when I might need the money. I keep 2 years expenses in an online savings account and 2-3 years in short term bonds. The balance is in intermediate term bonds. Full disclosure, I also own Short Ter...
by convert949
Mon Dec 29, 2014 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retiree Poll:What is your current AA?
Replies: 85
Views: 7926

Re: Retiree Poll:What is your current AA?

Currently 38/44/18 Stock/Bond/Cash. Cash includes I bonds. :sharebeer
by convert949
Thu Dec 11, 2014 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

In other words, if you have enough set aside in very safe assets to provide for your expenses until approximately age 100 (aka liability matching portfolio), then you can do whatever you want with the rest, including putting all of the excess into equities. I'm concerned that people who don't have ...
by convert949
Wed Dec 10, 2014 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I am a continuous campaigner that one should invest for total return, that dividends are nothing special. No better, no worse (taxes aside) from other equity returns. To be consistent, I then have to say that dividends cannot be relied on for income any more than capital appreciation can. Don't you...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I don't think an LMP discussion would be talking about dividends from stocks. After some thought, I have to agree strongly with what you say here. L. The reason I asked the question is that I recall reading that the 25 year (or so) safe portfolio would be decided upon after taking your income into ...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

One additional question not asked as of yet... I have all of the dividends from my taxable accounts deposited into my checking account each month/quarter. This reduces my need to tap principle in my investment accounts. In looking at 25 years of safe assets, should one consider your annual need from...
by convert949
Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

My AA is a result of my plan, it does not drive it.L. Isn't this the core argument for any version of an LMP or Bucket approach? The only difference (edit: in the amount of safe assets) is how much time you give the market to recover. You have chosen 6 years, Christine Benz from Morningstar likes 1...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

If I can arrange my portfolio dynamically so that I shrink the risk of a big drop just prior to retirement and lower the risk of running out at the end, all while not reducing long-term expected return (even probably getting a little bonus), then that's compelling to me. Pfau and Kitces framed thei...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I think Bernstein does a better job explaining the logic than Pfau and Kitces did. It remains very compelling to me. Why is it compelling when the data are so weak? All they have shown, if you look at their results, is that a rising glide slope is virtually indistinguishable from a constant allocat...
by convert949
Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein
Replies: 64
Views: 10433

Re: How to Think About Risk in Retirement - Bernstein

I think Bernstein does a better job explaining the logic than Pfau and Kitces did. It remains very compelling to me. Bernstein is an excellent writer and this piece is clear and straightforward, helping me to understand the choices. He always adds a little humor here and there, such as in this summ...

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