Search found 1032 matches

by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to deal with situation .Need Career advice PLZ !-Experienced Professionals !!
Replies: 34
Views: 3561

Re: I really need your Career advice !

Tell VP to fix it otherwise go where the money is. :beer Power is not something that is given, it's something you take. And you are in luck, now you are on the outside !
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

4% worked in the worst economy and that includes 50% bear markets. But nobody knows if future returns will be lower than historical norms, and if they are for how long. So we have a lousy economy for retirement right now but zero ability to predict 10 years ahead much less 30. I'd say it's the same ...
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

It's amazing to me that the same people who believe in backtesting SWR don't believe in backtesting the effects of valuations. The idea is not to expect "Armageddon", it's to be prepared for it. Last time I checked, 4% and 25x was not part of the Ten Commandments. Nor do projections of 10...
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

Sorry but it's way more complicated than that from what I see. I can't even get the past the Portfolio Management Rule. I can see why no one wants to use this complicated ruleset. I can code in C#, PHP, JS, CSS, HTML etc..... but I'm not a finance guy and this stuff spins my head. If anyone can crea...
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

Why not use VPW? https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal See also: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Withdrawal_Methods Personally I would do something like a ceiling of 3.5%-4% and then less if the market crashes and I am able to cut back expenses. I want to get a spreadsheet ...
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

Thanks, I'm just having trouble understanding the rules still. Trying to make a spreadsheet that incorporates the rules if anyone can help.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B5HHi ... 1ZWMUtRcG8
by coachz
Sat Aug 06, 2016 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

If portfolio returns -5% in year one then how come year 2 is not 5% lower to 38,000?
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help for 60 year old
Replies: 11
Views: 1524

Re: Help for 60 year old

I would do 60% stocks max, live on less and try to get to 50% stocks.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Why in the world would you think valuations are going to just stay at 26.83 for the next 30 years, when the stock market has never behaved that way in the past? I don't know how good of an estimate of the future it is, but what would you estimate Shiller PE to be in 30 years? If you're confident th...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Work in Vancouver, WA..possibly live in Camas?
Replies: 58
Views: 3515

Re: Work in Vancouver, WA..possibly live in Camas?

I see. Where would you consider moving to?
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Larry,. You really need to get your attitude in check. It comes across like a bully. Let people disagree and feel free to point out your opinions but chill on the I'm right and you are stupid attitude. It really turns me off from wanting to learn from you and you have so much to offer if you can ree...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Work in Vancouver, WA..possibly live in Camas?
Replies: 58
Views: 3515

Re: Work in Vancouver, WA..possibly live in Camas?

Would you recommend vancouver, wa for active retirees?
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

I'm going to guess we are not supposed to take on more risk but instead work longer, live on less, save more.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

Can anyone explain Guyten Klinger like I'm 5 ? Dear 5-year old. Guyten Klinger is too hard for someone so young. Now go outside and play. It's too nice out to be sitting in front of your computer. (sorry, someone had to do it! :wink: ) I'm trying to retire by age 12 !!!! I don't have time to play. ...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 2019
Views: 521793

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

"Shoe Dog" by Phil Knight, the founder of Blue Ribbon Sports which later became Nike. It is his memoir of the history of the company. Right now I am in 1976. The company is experiencing doubling of sales yearly and experiencing severe cash flow problems (an ongoing problem since day 1). E...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

My local weather guys can do no better than 24 hours. If it says 80% rain for 2 days away it is regularly changed to 10% or 0% by the time we get there.

“Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.”
― Søren Kierkegaard
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Experience with Honda airbag recall?
Replies: 152
Views: 30564

Re: Experience with Honda airbag recall?

We put or vin number into the honda site for this 1 month old 2016 CRV EX and it had no recalls. Is that all we need to do ?
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

as far as withdrawals, I recommend the battle tested TLW Strategy which was flawlessly explained by our shipmate Taylor Larimore. I'm coming around to that approach. Right now I'm trying to model RMDs out of tax deferred, SWRs out of the total portfolio, re-investing if RMDs - taxes > SWRs - taxes,...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on purchasing a new Honda CRV
Replies: 26
Views: 2544

Re: Advice on purchasing a new Honda CRV

yeah, minor accident made me very suspicious since it's over 5 grand less than a new one with.
I wonder if they have pictures of the accident.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Leaving edward jones
Replies: 22
Views: 1492

Re: Leaving edward jones

Maybe a Target fund until unless you learn more about their funds and want to manage more on your own.
https://www.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/f ... edom-funds
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Re: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

Thanks so much ! So for the Modified Withdrawal Rule.....you say..... Adjust for inflation except when returns are negative AND the increase would be greater than initial withdrawal rate So if you have adjusted your withdrawal down below the initial withdrawal rate and a new year comes along, you ca...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice on purchasing a new Honda CRV
Replies: 26
Views: 2544

Re: Advice on purchasing a new Honda CRV

I'm in Charleston, SC and just bought a 2016 Honda EX (Mountain Air, great color) for about $23,000-$23,500 also a month ago. I had a trade. That's a good price. Just use the phrase "Out the door" when asking for a price. That means NOTHING else added to the price. I had the trade in, 2 fo...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Coach Consider this model of the world. Maybe it will help you. The S&P is trading at 2500......(see above) Thanks so much Larry, I appreciate the examples and read them slowly for my football shaped head. Very interesting and I see your lifetime of experience in them. I'll probably retire earl...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Yeah I thought it was a great example. I watch Let's Make a Deal and am constantly suprised/entertained by people giving up $7k in prizes only to win $3k on the Big Deal (which was worth $25k). Greedy. And also, so often they win when the odds are like 1 in 5 or so.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: Conflict of Interest

And as a reminder, a 3.3% is a bit higher than the 3% I'm suggesting for 40+ year retirement because VPW fails 100% of the time when you reach age 100. The strategy (and associated discussions) of VPW is/should be vastly different from "SWR" because SWR is a discussion about what portfoli...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The main reason the 60s were so bad was a triple whammy of rising interest rates (so bonds did poorly), stock market that went nowhere for 16 years, AND very high inflation right in the middle of that 30 year period. So people predicting rising interest rates and stocks doing terribly for a decade ...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

coach Again, it's UNCONDITIONAL forecast. So independent of term. Reason again is simple, the assumption is the current price (valuation) is the best estimate of the right price. Thanks Larry. This seems like a term that represents an instantaneous value but is not easily translatable to a value th...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?
Replies: 16
Views: 2080

Can anyone explain Guyton Klinger like I'm 5 ?

I know it might be to complex for using in real life but I would love to know how it is supposed to work. Floors, Ceilings etc... I just don't find any clear explanation of it and I can't imagine it is more than 3 or 4 paragraphs to explain.

Thanks in advance !
John
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

The origin of the safe withdrawal rate was actually rather straightforward – it’s simply the initial withdrawal rate that would have sustained inflation-adjusted spending in the worst case scenario in (US) history. In point of fact, the historical initial withdrawal rate that would have worked for a...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

People might be interested in this article before being so sure the "rule" is broken. It may or may not be surprising what years were bad years to retire: https://www.kitces.com/blog/the-ratcheting-safe-withdrawal-rate-a-more-dominant-version-of-the-4-rule/ If there is something broken ab...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

larryswedroe wrote:Couple of things

Second, IMO the best long term forecast of the mean expected real return to US stocks is about 4%.

Larry


By long term, I assume you mean for the next 20 to 30 years. :beer
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to find common items that last "forever"
Replies: 58
Views: 4796

Re: Where to find common items that last "forever"

Speed Queen washers/dryers
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?
Replies: 52
Views: 5056

Re: Dave Ramsey over simplifying Roth vs. Traditional IRA?

Many will only be in 15% tax bracket for the Traditional IRA too. Just forget Ramsey for investing info. If you are out of debt, you are done with him. Bogleheads is the place to be.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: Conflict of Interest

7/24/2015: 10 year TIPS constant maturity, 0.51% 8/03/2016: 10 year TIPS constant maturity, 0.09% The link is to a post of yours, not a #Cruncher post. The 4% rule isn't over until we say it is over. Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! B...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

My funds are in cash, Admiral Total Bond and Total Stock with fees of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively. I have no problem rebalancing them. Right now I"m 7% cash, 56% stock and 37% bond. What does Betterment provide that I can't do on my own ? I can easily rebalance when markets go nuts.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I'm sure Betterment is great but I'm too cheap to use it. I do my spreadsheets and keep on trucking. Just knowing where I'm going (4%, 3% SWR, long term, short term?) is my problem. Also, only 10% is huge in my world. That's 1 in 10 chance and too much for me.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Those of us close to retirement don't want to have maybes. We want to KNOW that this will work. I don't require 100% but 90% is not good enough. That's 1 in 10 chance I fail. 99% is more my style. It is so confusing to have these SWR goal posts moved when right at retirement and removes a lot of fa...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

as far as withdrawals, I recommend the battle tested TLW Strategy which was flawlessly explained by our shipmate Taylor Larimore. I'm coming around to that approach. Right now I'm trying to model RMDs out of tax deferred, SWRs out of the total portfolio, re-investing if RMDs - taxes > SWRs - taxes,...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I don't know why SWR threads have started to pop up again on this forum, lately. SWR is a planning tool ... It tells us that we should aim to accumulate at least 25 times our residual money needs As you say, SWR is a planning tool. People are planning. What alternative planning tool should people u...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Also it's one thing to have to tighten for a year or too but it's another to say the forecast for the next 20 years is 3% SWR and not 4%.
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

Having read what Larry wrote in the other threads, I don't think he is actually saying that you "can't" retire initially spending 4%. He IS saying the chance of failure on a strictly followed 4% rule is significantly higher now than at many points in the past based on stock market valuati...
by coachz
Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I don't know why SWR threads have started to pop up again on this forum, lately. SWR is a planning tool ... It tells us that we should aim to accumulate at least 25 times our residual money needs As you say, SWR is a planning tool. People are planning. What alternative planning tool should people u...
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I doubt most bogleheads do that. Maybe the top third.
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Coach I would be happy to contribute more but fruitless when people deny facts that don't fit their narrative. And it's most often in my experience from people who don't have the technical background, In other words, it's not what a person doesn't know that gets them in trouble, it's what they know...
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

But now they are arguing 25x is not enough.
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

tennisplyr wrote:Isn't 4% a absolute worst case scenario?

This board is arguing 3% now. It's very confusing.

See viewtopic.php?f=10&t=196613&newpost=3004990&start=50
to be depressed.
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors
Replies: 240
Views: 18638

Re: A costly mistake made by both investors and advisors

Today's valuations don't say anything about the long-term average This statement is completely false as demonstrated by people like NYU's professor Damodaran. Anyone reading his work or those of others on the subject would know better. And that's the problem with these type statements. And why it's...
by coachz
Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]
Replies: 150
Views: 9413

Re: "4% Rule" ...is broken? [argumentative]

I remember years ago reading that investing could be easy. Yes it could be easy but we like to make it difficult. We could follow Mister John Bogle's advice of just investing everything in the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund and forget about it, but that is way too easy and too boring. Caveat Emptor, ...

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