Search found 779 matches

by cb474
Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Swedroe says that high-dividend yield funds can have better than expected returns, because they tend to end up selecting for value exposure. He also says that the high-dividend factor detracts from the performance of the fund (which is masked by the benefits of the value factor). He says, "a high di...
by cb474
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

+1 That's exactly what I think. It might not make a difference. It probably won't make a difference. But since the only real evidence we have suggests that it might make a difference, and since it costs nothing, to me it wouldn't feel right not to try. Plus, I kind of enjoy the process (including c...
by cb474
Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

How do you come to the conclusion that VIHAX is not a good international value fund? Sure, in the US stock buybacks are very common, and therefore, dividends may not be a good metric for value and you may exclude many value stocks that opt for doing buybacks. However, international stocks are much ...
by cb474
Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

People should also keep in mind, as I note a few posts above, that the "magic" of perfectly even 25/25/25/25 proporations doesn't make a lot of sense, because depending on what funds you use for LB, SV, ILV, and ISV you would actually be tilting a lot more or less to small and value. Vanguard's VSIA...
by cb474
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Returns for each slice will vary widely over time. That randomness will dilute our striving for precision in our allocation percentages and funds. We just do what we can. Who knows, perhaps our forced choices due to our account locations and sizes, will do better than the precisely allocated ones? ...
by cb474
Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

First of all, VTRIX isn't really a value fund, at least in the academic sense (although the name suggests otherwise). It is more of a international large-cap core actively managed fund. Second, I agree that there are much better metrics to use to get value exposure than dividends such as price-to-b...
by cb474
Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

Yeah, the volume is always low on new Vanguard funds. Sometimes it eventually picks up, others not. But even if the volume was good, I wouldn't want it. I think the arguments for high dividend yield funds don't hold much water and probably are worse for one's portfolio than just sticking with total ...
by cb474
Fri Jun 23, 2017 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

You could theoretically do this now with Vanguard index funds if you consider VIHAX (International High Yield) as a proxy for ILV. So, you could go 25 VTSAX (LC) / 25 VSIAX (SCV) / 25 VIHAX (ILV) / 25 VFSVX (IS). If they would ever get rid of that ridiculous purchase fee (load) of 25 bps for VIHAX,...
by cb474
Fri Jun 23, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

You could theoretically do this now with Vanguard index funds if you consider VIHAX (International High Yield) as a proxy for ILV. So, you could go 25 VTSAX (LC) / 25 VSIAX (SCV) / 25 VIHAX (ILV) / 25 VFSVX (IS). If they would ever get rid of that ridiculous purchase fee (load) of 25 bps for VIHAX,...
by cb474
Thu May 25, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

A couple posts where TrevH plays with some variations sort of close to your options: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=489116#p489116 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=489178#p489178 I only went through the first two pages of the thread, so there could be more in here. ...
by cb474
Thu May 25, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

. Good Evening Bogleheads... Thought it was interesting how close the 4 slice combo of (LB,SV,ILV,IS) and the 8 slice combo of (LB,LV,SB,SV,ILB,ILV,ISB,ISV) did performance wise. For most of the near 40 years you can't see one line over the other. Looks like a reasonable way to greatly simplify the...
by cb474
Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high
Replies: 17
Views: 3214

Re: Boglehead Contest leaders as S&P 500 Index makes new high

172!

I am pleasantly surprised that my guess is within the realm of where the market has actually been and not wildly off the mark. On November 9th I would have been at the top of the list. I figure if I come in plus or minus 50 points, that's not bad. Although I guess it doesn't mean anything.
by cb474
Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Treasuries Still be Considered a "Riskless" Asset?
Replies: 8
Views: 1062

Re: Can Treasuries Still be Considered a "Riskless" Asset?

Perhaps I should have been clear in my OP that I understand that "riskless" really just means they are the lowest risk asset. I was just using the term of art. I thought the quotation marks around "riskless" in the heading conveyed that point. I'm just not sure if this is true an...
by cb474
Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Treasuries Still be Considered a "Riskless" Asset?
Replies: 8
Views: 1062

Can Treasuries Still be Considered a "Riskless" Asset?

Prefatory remark: I am really not trying to start a political discussion and maybe it's impossible to have this discusion here. I leave it up to the moderators to decide. But I'm wondering if people need to reevaluate the risk of treasuries in the long run, given the results of the presidential elec...
by cb474
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Listen. You are giving your opinion on currency risk here, it is not a topic with conclusive proof, and others have presented with plenty of counterarguments. I'm asking specifically about others' experiences with currency-hedged ETFs, not whether you think the product is necessary. Adults can disa...
by cb474
Sat Jan 09, 2016 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Is anyone here using a currency-hedged international etf like HEMA/DBAW/HAWX/etc. for their international allocation? I found a paper m whose summary says: "We show that foreign currency exposure meaningfully adds to risk in most environments, and does so without providing commensurate compens...
by cb474
Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Is anyone here using a currency-hedged international etf like HEMA/DBAW/HAWX/etc. for their international allocation? I found a paper m whose summary says: "We show that foreign currency exposure meaningfully adds to risk in most environments, and does so without providing commensurate compens...
by cb474
Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

... In the 1970s and 80s U.S. equity markets correlated more highly to international equity markets, than from the 1990s to the present. So correlations have been getting lower, not higher. ... Where is that data coming from? The data on Portfolio Visualizer implies International only had a 0.56 co...
by cb474
Wed Jan 06, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I don't really by the "Americanism" argument, since domestic bias is consistent among investors of all countries. People tend to prefer to invest in whatever country they live in. But certainly the argument you make about the U.S. economy can not be made about most countries (not any other...
by cb474
Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Agreed. A few people may be only investing in poorly run 401k with lousy choices, but in general many have good low cost options. Personally I am close to market weight. Currency issues were not my friend this year, but some other year may make me happy - time will tell. I try to do market weight a...
by cb474
Mon Jan 04, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Currency risk (which I think is real and not in general rewarded like market risk, others disagree) and investing costs including taxes can be different for different investors and so even if one does believe in MPT one might not want to invest in stocks at global cap weight. I take your point and ...
by cb474
Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I buy Vanguard Total world fund. To me it is the ultimate realization of passive "own the market" investing - at least for equities. I see no reason to over-weight any country over another. I also believe the currency question is overblown. Yes, that's right about currency. The currency r...
by cb474
Sun Jan 03, 2016 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I buy Vanguard Total world fund. To me it is the ultimate realization of passive "own the market" investing - at least for equities. I see no reason to over-weight any country over another. I also believe the currency question is overblown. Yes, that's right about currency. The currency r...
by cb474
Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

This thread will be revisited at the end of the year. Here we are at the end of the year and international is down -6.43% YTD. Could Bogle and Buffett be right? No. Taylor, thanks for that original link to Jack's comments on International. He has never said it "any plainer" than that. 50%...
by cb474
Wed Nov 18, 2015 4:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard auto exchange
Replies: 6
Views: 1287

Re: Vanguard auto exchange

It appears as if this function has been removed for those of us "upgraded" to brokerage accounts, unless I'm just missing it. Vanguard rep confirms. Can anyone here confirm this? Looks like I will have to mail in this TLH trade. People have been saying in the thread about the "upgrad...
by cb474
Tue Sep 29, 2015 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To ETF or Not to ETF
Replies: 92
Views: 44280

Re: To ETF or Not to ETF

I wonder what the logic is for counting family members who reside at the same address?
by cb474
Tue Aug 25, 2015 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Jack Bogle: I Wouldn't Risk Investing Outside the U.S I won't be buying any foreign stocks for some time so there should be more for you. Enjoy. As I keep saying, this has all already been discussed above in the thread (on the first page) in much greater detail, it would behoove anyone truly intere...
by cb474
Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

InvestorNewb: Jack Bogle speaks about International Investing in this recent video posted by SailingAway: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=156734&newpost=2351679 I intend to stay-the-course with about 30% of equity in my international stock fund. Best wishes. Taylor Yes...
by cb474
Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I don't consider owning the entire domestic market and its thousands of stocks to be "one basket". Perhaps many baskets, but in the same barn? Depends on what you are looking at. That one basic has all the same currency and soveign risk (guess what those apply to the US as much as they do...
by cb474
Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Total Returns YTD: Total Stock: -2.27% Total International Stock: -4.01% International is now lower than when I lump summed all of my cash into it in December 2012. What a farce. In April Vanguard was hot on foreign, they increased the holding in balanced funds. How about that market timing. The fo...
by cb474
Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Your post does not sound arrogant or disrespectful, so no worries, no apology necessary. That said, although the discussion of the British Empire, the U.S., geography, and wealth is interesting, I find it to be highly speculative and not relevant, when it comes to predicting future equity market ret...
by cb474
Thu Jul 16, 2015 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

But comparing a continent spanning global super power to an island nation that is a regional power is apples to oranges. ETA: The above is not meant in any kind of political context, but instead a fundamental analysis of the host countries of various stock markets. Not unlike one might look at the ...
by cb474
Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

As a US-centric investor....I am reading about currency risk. The answer to the OP question seems to come down to 'whither the dollar?' On the other hand, Larry Swedroe says that currency risk is another mode of diversification, that changes in the value of one's currency both help and hurt you so ...
by cb474
Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dow futures down 200+ points
Replies: 84
Views: 13133

Re: dow futures down 200+ points

down 1.1%? yawn. double yawn. Good night. In principle I agree. But every month I make a contribution to my investments and this month it happened to be in an international fund. I did that at the beginning of last week. If the market was going to go down 4 or 5%, which is more what it's like inter...
by cb474
Fri Jun 05, 2015 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 719
Views: 302789

Re: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4

This is truly an epic thread. Thanks to all who've contributed and I won't even pretend that I fully understand some of the subtleties involved. My question is this (and I hope it's the appropriate place for it): given all of the recent changes in the composition of Vanguard's international funds w...
by cb474
Thu Jan 29, 2015 4:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

checked portfoliovisualizer for sanity check and different calculation, total US vs. EAFE, and get annual correlation of 0.91 since 2001 (earliest point it gives), monthly of 0.88. post Y2K results biased by the bear markets, but still. Or what did I miss? Serious question. Yes, I think what you're...
by cb474
Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

This is not the only reason. In John Bogle's book Common Sense on Mutual funds he goes into detail on Currency Risk and Sovereign risk. If you have not read that section in Jack's book, read The Global Portfolio Extreme, Currency Risk and Returns, The Global Efficient Frontier and International Eco...
by cb474
Wed Jan 28, 2015 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Short-term volatility vs. long-term return?

With all due respect to Bogle, the idea that multinational U.S. companies provide international diversification has been pretty well debunked by Larry Swedroe. But given how often this idea rears its head in this forum, I suspect it's a truism that may never die. "Debunked" or not, invest...
by cb474
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectacular
Replies: 62
Views: 9508

Re: Asness - The Small-Firm Effect Is Real, and It’s Spectac

. Since the inception of the Bridgeway fund BRSIX 7/31/1997 - 12/31/2014 - annualized return 11.8% = CRSP10 (Benchmark for BRSIX) 11.5% = Brirdgeway Ultra-small Co. Mkt (BRSIX) 10.0% = DFA US Microcap (DFSCX) 8.6% = Vanguard Small Cap Index (NAESX) 6.4% = Vanguard 500 (VFINX) m . Did you try any ot...
by cb474
Tue Jan 27, 2015 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

I have 25% international per my IP. I agree that international looks good now, but for different reasons than you, OP. Valuation-wise, it's BEEN a good value relative to the US in my opinion over the last year or so. I think relative performance over less than 1 month is basically irrelevant. I'm s...
by cb474
Tue Jan 27, 2015 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 20626

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

John Bogle still feels a U.S. investor gets plenty of international diversification by holding the S&P or the Total Market Index. With all due respect to Bogle, the idea that multinational U.S. companies provide international diversification has been pretty well debunked by Larry Swedroe. But g...
by cb474
Wed Dec 31, 2014 4:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc article)
Replies: 155
Views: 21008

Re: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc arti

Let's take a step back here. The essential point being made is that where one places stock changes reward and also risk, just as asset allocation changes risk and reward. Then it's true that shortfall risk is relevant, just as it is relevant to asset allocation. If you've got bonds in Roth then if ...
by cb474
Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc article)
Replies: 155
Views: 21008

Re: Bonds go in taxable (whitecoatinvestor aka EmergDoc arti

I'm not sure I buy that there is more risk by putting stocks in Roth. What risk, exactly, do you think there is more of? I would submit that for many people under assumptions reasonable in current conditions that there is higher shortfall risk by putting stocks in taxable (because your portfolio gr...
by cb474
Sun Dec 21, 2014 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement
Replies: 29
Views: 4498

Re: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement

Agree here and with others that the bank is protecting itself so it does make sense - to the bank. The problem is that as it's written, it makes little or no sense to their customers. For the bank, it's a win-win, possibly even if they don't get the customer info sought, since the more important mo...
by cb474
Sat Dec 20, 2014 4:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement
Replies: 29
Views: 4498

Re: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement

This thread is specifically about the bank requesting generic occupation information. Think about it for a moment. Do you have your paychecks cashed or deposited there? Have you ever cashed or deposited a reimbursement check from your employer there? If so, they could very easily just employ data m...
by cb474
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement
Replies: 29
Views: 4498

Re: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement

As dm200 said, this is part of stricter "Know Your Customer" requirements that are coming into place for financial institutions. You will find information by searching on that term, both here and on the Internet in general. Here's a quick list of some of the relevant past threads from her...
by cb474
Wed Dec 17, 2014 4:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement
Replies: 29
Views: 4498

Re: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement

I agree with those who question this, especially the money-laundering reference. My question is what exactly is the occupation information requested? Also suggest you contact someone at USAA to verify they sent it and why and whether it is required or simply being requested, the latter meaning you ...
by cb474
Tue Dec 16, 2014 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement
Replies: 29
Views: 4498

Re: Regulatory guidance - occupation information requirement

I get the logic of why this information might be helpful to some agenices. But it still seems intrusive to me. I'm tired of having to give more and more information about myself to every business and government agency that feels like they want it. Just because the information might be useful, doesn'...