Search found 4551 matches

by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good book on global economics?
Replies: 8
Views: 576

Re: Good book on global economics?

The undergraduate textbook, International Economics: Theory and Policy , by Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld. Krugman won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in international trade theory. Obstfeld is a leading theoretician in international economics and is currently Chief Economist at the Inte...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Well - I am retiring at 73. Everything I earn from my job plus full SS is taxed heavily. I'm even going to have to pay medicare premiums as I worked longer, pensions and 401K increased. If the objective is to encourage people to work longer, the tax code for those working after 65 needs to change. ...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Rethinking Retirement Basically, Merton says it boils down to this: “You either have to work longer or accept a lower standard of living. What you can’t do is work the same number of years as your parents, live longer and enjoy the same standard of living. That’s not feasible.” Link - http://www.re...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgage Line of Credit
Replies: 19
Views: 2297

Re: Reverse Mortgage Line of Credit

Rethinking Retirement But the picture is not entirely bleak, as (Robert) Merton points out. “There is good news, and I underscore, it is very good news: Future generations are going to live longer. This is great. But, as with many good things, there comes another challenge, which is simply how to f...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Rethinking Retirement But the picture is not entirely bleak, as (Robert) Merton points out. “There is good news, and I underscore, it is very good news: Future generations are going to live longer. This is great. But, as with many good things, there comes another challenge, which is simply how to f...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

In the real world US productivity rates have grown much slower since 1970 than they did from 1920-1970. How can this be? We have had the personal computer revolution, the internet, smart phones, software that has revolutionized white collar work, robots performing manufacturing functions, the rise ...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Hi, I live in the Washington dc area and would like to participate. Can I register for a listserv or something to receive notifications of upcoming meetings? Bryan Here is a link where you can request to join the local DC Bogleheads group, aka DC Vanguard Diehards. We send out two emails to local m...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Are we talking about 2 different things when we speak of the world being awash in capital? There is the capital that actually makes things - human and machine. There are the mechanisms of exchange (coconuts) that buy things. Am I understand the argument correctly in rephrasing it as we cannot only ...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Philociraptor wrote: In the real world, production rates are always improving.

In the real world US productivity rates have grown much slower since 1970 than they did from 1920-1970.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

... as a nation the answer has to be longer careers and/or increases in productivity (or reduced income). If the whole nation saved like Bogleheads it would not fix the problem, because it would not increase GDP. But if the whole nation saved like Bogleheads - who do not stuff mattresses with green...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8615

Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers Presentation on modern retirement by John Shoven of Stanford. No need for me to comment, Shoven's presentation speaks for itself. Link to presentation slides - http://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/a738b9_cf0065e923304...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 16, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be this Sunday, July 17, from 2:30-4:30 in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library ( note new location ), 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. See posts up thread from Friday for more on new location. Here are links to things that will be touched on at the meeting. Do H...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

How do I sign up for the meeting on Sunday the 17th? Also, given the fee the library charges for the space, is there a fee for attending? By showing up at the library. :) There is no fee for attending. The fee is $15 per hour and two or three of us are splitting it up among ourselves. If we didn't ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Next meeting this Sunday July 17, Silver Spring Library at 2:30

Our next meeting will be this Sunday, July 17, from 2:30-4:30 in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library ( note new location ), 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. (The reason for the time change is that the meeting room closes at 4:30 and the library closes at 5:00.) Click on the above Sil...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2109

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

At this point, I do not think there is any one solution to the update problem--my two machines were different. My advice is to backup your computer by downloading a windows image to an external disk drive. Then try some of the solutions on this thread or do a search for others. Good advice :!: :bee...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2109

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

I checked the roll up but it only includes updates through April 2016. I have installed updates through that month so I will put in a tickler to check the Microsoft website in a month for new updates to the roll up package. Installing the roll up package thru April may correct the problem you are h...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2109

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

My remaining Windows 7 machine is still non-updatable. You can now go to the Windows website and download a role up of all Windows 7 updates since Service Pack 1. Each month Microsoft will update the role up by adding the latest patches. I downloaded the role up last month but magically all the PCs...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2109

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

We have three Windows 7 computers in the house and over the last year or so I have had numerous problems getting different computers to update the Windows monthly patches. Usually the FixIt tool does not fix the problem. I have managed to eventually get all the machines to update, but it has sometim...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Perspective on Asset Allocation in Retirement Situation
Replies: 18
Views: 1198

Re: Perspective on Asset Allocation in Retirement Situation

A little perspective / opinion / advice from the BH collective is requested.  Alternatively, even if the portfolio dropped by 50% we'd still be 'good'. Why not take a shot at providing heirs with something truly substantial and use 80% equities / 20% fixed income?  What would you do, or recommend, ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I get a little house or townhouse for under $400K in Maryland or Virginia?
Replies: 59
Views: 4269

Re: Can I get a little house or townhouse for under $400K in Maryland or Virginia?

In PG county the average price of a house is under $300k. The county is majority black, but it is also the wealthiest black majority county in the country I believe. That makes it the least well off county in the DC Metro area. :wink: There are some high crime areas in the county, but most parts of ...
by bobcat2
Thu Jun 30, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Hi David,

A big tip of the hat to both you & Nancy for setting up the meeting room for July & Sept. Thanks very much. I know from personal experience that setting up a meeting room is not as easy as it seems to those who have never done it. Good work. :D :D

Best,
Bob
by bobcat2
Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1740
Views: 388058

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

bertilak wrote:Poor Elisha Cook! Did he ever get out of a film alive?

Elisha's character came out quite well in Rosemary's Baby. In fact, his character is about the only character that comes out well in Rosemary's Baby. Unless, of course, you count the Devil Himself. :wink:

BobK
by bobcat2
Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 16594

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Ok, but how much are the interest, dividends, and distributions? The past 9 years have been pretty good to retired people with a lot invested in the stock market , I believe, ... What is the average annual real return on the US stock market over the last 9 years before any expenses or taxes? Real a...
by bobcat2
Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 162
Views: 16594

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Ok, but how much are the interest, dividends, and distributions? The past 9 years have been pretty good to retired people with a lot invested in the stock market , I believe, ... What is the average annual real return on the US stock market over the last 9 years before any expenses or taxes? Real a...
by bobcat2
Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Just curious if June 19 is a "go" for the next meeting? We will be meeting Sunday June 19 from 3-5 in the second floor meeting room of the Ballston library. There are only a few things on today’s agenda. The most important is a discussion of when & where we will be meeting in the futu...
by bobcat2
Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What four faces would you put on the Mount Rushmore of Investing
Replies: 47
Views: 3397

Re: What four faces would you put on the Mount Rushmore of Investing

It seems to me that most of the people on these lists are pertinent for institutional investing. (Investing where the decision horizon is essentially indistinguishable from infinity. Think Wall Street banks and university endowments.) Personal investing is different. The decision horizon is definite...
by bobcat2
Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 6694

Re: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ

Be thankful you are not a pension fund? A big problem is that since most workers don't have pensions they have become their own pension fund managers. For the most part these individual retirement managers are themselves chasing unreasonably high expected returns by loading up on risky investments ...
by bobcat2
Tue May 31, 2016 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

We know what interest rates are now and we need to take that into account. If today's 20 year TIPS rate is 0.8% we should use that in our calculations - not a historical average of about 2.8%. Next year if the rate is 1.1% we should use that in our calculations. It makes little sense to use a histo...
by bobcat2
Tue May 31, 2016 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

We know what interest rates are now and we need to take that into account. If today's 20 year TIPS rate is 0.8% we should use that in our calculations - not a historical average of about 2.8%. Next year if the rate is 1.1% we should use that in our calculations. It makes little sense to use a histor...
by bobcat2
Mon May 30, 2016 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

EnjoyIt writes. Although wealth does not automatically transform into income. Such as a $2 million dollar home with nothing in the bank will not provide $80K/year expenses. But, $2 million in wealth with an asset allocation of 50% stocks and 50% bonds would have give you a 91.3% chance of not runnin...
by bobcat2
Mon May 30, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

I would never recommend 40x. 40x is based on pure fear. 40x covers 50 years of exepenses when there is no real growth. That is just a crazy. Who the hell will live for 50 years in retirement unless you plan to retire very early. I even think 33x is too conservative unless you don't have the capabil...
by bobcat2
Sun May 29, 2016 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

Wow 5%? I've been using 7% real...looking at my portfolio on vanguard it has returned around 10% nominal. So accounting for inflation I get around 7%. If it should actually be 5% then I need to save way more! The real return of the US stock market before expenses over the last 20 years is 5.6%. Her...
by bobcat2
Sun May 29, 2016 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Percent to save goal
Replies: 75
Views: 7529

Re: Percent to save goal

Setting the goal is important. Typically in finance the goal is to have enough income in retirement to maintain the standard of living the household had achieved in the years leading up to retirement. You can't just use a simplistic formula such as a ratio of 25x wealth to income metric as some have...
by bobcat2
Sat May 14, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Treynor, co-creator of CAPM, dies at 86
Replies: 2
Views: 498

Re: Jack Treynor, co-creator of CAPM, dies at 86

Another implication of Mr. Treynor’s work is that trying to pick stocks and beat the market is a bad idea, Lo said. [MIT finance professor Andrew Lo] “CAPM is also the basis of the mutual-fund industry, particularly for passive investing,” he said. “You ought to just buy and hold the market, and yo...
by bobcat2
Sat May 14, 2016 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Treynor, co-creator of CAPM, dies at 86
Replies: 2
Views: 498

Jack Treynor, co-creator of CAPM, dies at 86

Jack Treynor, whose insights into risk and return underpin theories for investment pricing and shaped the field of quantitative finance, has died. He was 86. ... Mr. Treynor is recognized as one of the discoverers of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), a cornerstone contribution to finance that...
by bobcat2
Thu May 12, 2016 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jane Austen and Actuaries
Replies: 1
Views: 591

Re: Jane Austen and Actuaries

This has been discussed several times in the past. Here's another thread where Jane Austin's financial wisdom was discussed.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=121858&p=1783573&hilit=austen#p1783573

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed May 11, 2016 11:06 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 79
Views: 17691

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Update for next meeting - Once again we have been unable to secure an alternative location for our DC BHs meeting scheduled for Sunday, May 15. Our next meeting is now tentatively scheduled for Sunday, June 19 at the Ballston library. This is the earliest open date we could secure for the library, o...
by bobcat2
Wed May 11, 2016 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3860

Re: Best withdrawal plan

We're making progress. You now understand that you have a chance to live beyond age 83, while all along you have planned to spend til age 100. :happy

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed May 11, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3860

Re: Best withdrawal plan

coachz wrote:SSA.GOV says I'm dead at 83 so that makes it easier !

No, it doesn't say that. It says you have about a 50% chance of being alive beyond the date of your 83rd birthday. :wink:

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed May 11, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3860

Re: Best withdrawal plan

What do you guys see as the best withdrawal plan for a married couple at 60 retiring. ... We have no bequests so I would like to spend the money down to age 100 where it becomes zero. For a couple age 60 the probability of their both being alive in one year is almost 99%. The probability of their b...
by bobcat2
Wed May 11, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best withdrawal plan
Replies: 37
Views: 3860

Re: Best withdrawal plan

What do you guys see as the best withdrawal plan for a married couple at 60 retiring. ... We have no bequests so I would like to spend the money down to age 100 where it becomes zero. For a couple age 60 the probability of their both being alive in one year is almost 99%. The probability of their b...
by bobcat2
Thu May 05, 2016 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance
Replies: 42
Views: 3395

Re: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance

The statement "Risk can only be managed by diversifying your portfolio." is false. It is simply not true, and does not belong in any discussion of financial risk. The writer is not helping anyone by spreading falsehoods. He or she is instead is adding to the confusion of how to invest. By ...
by bobcat2
Thu May 05, 2016 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance
Replies: 42
Views: 3395

Re: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance

Hi Celia, I believe how risk is managed is central to sound financial practice. I think the following quote is so wrong," Risk can only be managed by diversifying your portfolio ." that those who write such a thing or believe such a thing should not be in the position of giving financial a...
by bobcat2
Thu May 05, 2016 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance
Replies: 42
Views: 3395

Re: Wiki article for new investors - Risk tolerance

From the Wiki article - Risk tolerance Risk can only be managed by diversifying your portfolio. The above quote is utter nonsense and and fails finance 101 :!: :oops: Here's the true but less simplistic response concerning how financial risk can be managed. Much (most?) financial risk is handled by ...
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 1 website you'd recommend
Replies: 27
Views: 4349

Re: The 1 website you'd recommend

One is never enough :!: :D

So here First
&
here Second

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning
Replies: 15
Views: 2189

Re: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning

I would add that perhaps the biggest liability problem is long term care which may be very expensive and is far from certain. LTC insurance seems pretty unattractive for a number of reasons, at least as far as I can see. Given LTC is so expensive, the expense is uncertain to both the insurer and in...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning
Replies: 15
Views: 2189

Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning

Wade has an article in Forbes on life-cycle finance (LCF). In the article he refers to LCF as safety first retirement planning. IMO the key point he makes is the comparison of the LCF approach to retirement planning as opposed to the conventional approach to retirement planning based on Modern Portf...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?
Replies: 50
Views: 5336

Re: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?

You should run more than one scenario, each with a different expected return. Then ask yourself what will I do if the realized return comes close to the expected return for each of the scenarios.

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 16, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 7027

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

Duration matching is a method of immunizing bond holdings against interest rate fluctuations. Therefore, it is not necessary to forecast interest rates. By duration matching bond assets against targeted annuitized income you will meet your income target, regardless of what interest rates do. This i...
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 7027

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

The original poster, starling , was asking how to determine his number for a retirement 20 years from now. I could have added to the list of "nearly insurmountable problems 20 years ahead of retirement", to include the impossibility of accurately predicting interest rates 20 years in the ...

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