Search found 4507 matches

by bobcat2
Fri Apr 29, 2016 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 1 website you'd recommend
Replies: 13
Views: 1920

Re: The 1 website you'd recommend

One is never enough :!: :D

So here First
&
here Second

BobK
by bobcat2
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning
Replies: 15
Views: 1884

Re: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning

I would add that perhaps the biggest liability problem is long term care which may be very expensive and is far from certain. LTC insurance seems pretty unattractive for a number of reasons, at least as far as I can see. Given LTC is so expensive, the expense is uncertain to both the insurer and in...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 26, 2016 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning
Replies: 15
Views: 1884

Wade Pfau on life-cycle finance retirement planning

Wade has an article in Forbes on life-cycle finance (LCF). In the article he refers to LCF as safety first retirement planning. IMO the key point he makes is the comparison of the LCF approach to retirement planning as opposed to the conventional approach to retirement planning based on Modern Portf...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 17, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?
Replies: 50
Views: 4605

Re: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?

You should run more than one scenario, each with a different expected return. Then ask yourself what will I do if the realized return comes close to the expected return for each of the scenarios.

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Apr 16, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 6051

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

Duration matching is a method of immunizing bond holdings against interest rate fluctuations. Therefore, it is not necessary to forecast interest rates. By duration matching bond assets against targeted annuitized income you will meet your income target, regardless of what interest rates do. This i...
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 6051

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

The original poster, starling , was asking how to determine his number for a retirement 20 years from now. I could have added to the list of "nearly insurmountable problems 20 years ahead of retirement", to include the impossibility of accurately predicting interest rates 20 years in the ...
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 15, 2016 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 6051

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

The goal is a flow of income in retirement . It is not a pile of wealth at retirement magic number. These two goals are not the same thing. You cannot pick a pile of wealth and then multiply by some simplistic rule, such as the 4% rule, to arrive at your desired income. Changes in interest rates, c...
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 6051

Re: Magic Number? How much to save for retirement

The goal is a flow of income in retirement. It is not a pile of wealth at retirement magic number. These two goals are not the same thing. You cannot pick a pile of wealth and then multiply by some simplistic rule, such as the 4% rule, to arrive at your desired income. Changes in interest rates, chi...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Applications of Calculus of Variations?
Replies: 20
Views: 1501

Re: Financial Applications of Calculus of Variations?

One of the foundational books on modern finance is Robert Merton's "Continuous Time Finance". Here is a small portion of Stephen Ross's review of the book when it came out in the early 1990s. "The thoughtful way in which the book is organized, the connective sections, and the fullness...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 12, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?
Replies: 22
Views: 2159

Re: Has the inflation risk premium fallen? Is it now negative?

The paper includes: Inflation compensation = expected inflation + inflation risk premium + other factors The nominals - TIPS spread would be a good reflection of the market's inflation expectations and, for fans of efficient markets, as good an estimate as you're going to get, if not for the inclus...
by bobcat2
Tue Apr 12, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Bob, Can you upload your presentation about bonds? Thanks, Michael I've uploaded the bond presentation to the DC Bogleheads site. It's in the files section of the site in the folder titled "Bond Basics". Most of the presentation is a Word document but there is also one Excel spreadsheet. ...
by bobcat2
Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:11 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Last moment reminder. DC Bogleheads are meeting today from 3-5 in the Arlington Central library 2nd floor meeting room in Ballston. See previous post for directions and details.

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:25 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

The next DC Bogleheads meeting is scheduled for Sunday, April 10, from 3-5 PM at the central Arlington library in Ballston, which is located at 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA. The second floor meeting room is on the south side of the library, just to the left of the glass enclosed quiet readin...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 14, 2016 12:04 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Next DC Bogleheads meeting is Sunday, April 10
Replies: 0
Views: 307

Next DC Bogleheads meeting is Sunday, April 10

This message has been posted in the master thread for DC Bogleheads, but in case some have missed the message, it's repeated here. The next DC Bogleheads meeting is scheduled for Sunday, April 10, from 3-5 PM at the central Arlington library in Ballston. Originally we were scheduled to meet elsewher...
by bobcat2
Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Next DC Bogleheads meeting is Sunday, April 10

The next DC Bogleheads meeting is scheduled for Sunday, April 10, from 3-5 PM at the central Arlington library in Ballston. Originally we were scheduled to meet elsewhere on Sunday March 20, but that location is undergoing repairs on that date. The earliest Sunday backup date available at the librar...
by bobcat2
Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: the risk of withdrawing more money in early retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2132

Re: the risk of withdrawing more money in early retirement

Hi, about a year away, my wife and I have started talking about withdrawal rates, I've advocated btw and 3 and 4 percent. She thinks we should aim for a higher withdrawal rate (perhaps 5 or 6 per cent) in early retirement. Her point is that right now we're healthy, mobile, etc but 10 years from now...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 19, 2016 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2016
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 out

The Triumph of the Optimists book picked 1900 as a starting point to have a long-term common start reference for equity and bond markets around the globe. They then had to go back and collect and in a few cases construct return data for many capital markets around the globe back to 1900 - a tremendo...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2016
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 out

The 2016 yearbook shows returns from 2000-2015, and from 1966-2015, and from 1900-2015. Here are US returns and global returns from 2000-2015 and 1966-2015. US annual real returns Global annual real returns Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds 2000-2015 (latest 16 yrs) 2.3% 5.4% 1.6% 4.9% In other words, you l...
by bobcat2
Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Replies: 10
Views: 1626

Re: The Rise and Fall of American Growth

There was no economic growth over the eight centuries between the fall of the Roman Empire and the Middle Ages. Historical research has shown that real output per person in Britain between 1300 and 1700 barely doubled in four centuries, in contrast to the experience of Americans in the twentieth ce...
by bobcat2
Tue Feb 16, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Rise and Fall of American Growth
Replies: 10
Views: 1626

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

I have been reading Robert Gordon's new book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth. Whether one agrees or disagrees with Gordon's pessimism about future growth and productivity, his analysis of growth and productivity from 1870 to the present will be truly eye opening to anyone who isn't an economic...
by bobcat2
Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 7824

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

annual real returns 1966-2015 (latest 50 yrs) Stocks Bonds Austria 3.3% 4.7% France 5.6% 5.9% Italy 1.4% 3.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- China -3.3% 1.9% 1993-2015 (entire 23 history period of modern Chinese capital markets) Rus...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 12, 2016 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 7824

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

US annual real returns Global annual real returns Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds 2000-2015 (latest 16 yrs) 2.3% 5.4% 1.6% 4.9% In other words, you lost a lot of money over the last sixteen years, if you were heavily invested in stocks and lightly invested in bonds. This does not accurately reflect the a...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 12, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 7824

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

quantAndHold wrote. So (BobK) what you're really saying here is that if you got really unlucky, and invested your entire retirement savings during the 1997-2002 window, you would have done better in bonds. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying anyone in 1999 who was then in their 30s or even early...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's
Replies: 68
Views: 7824

Re: Any regrets by people 50+ for having a conservative portfolio in their 30's

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence. - John Adams Here are some facts about investment returns from the latest Credit Suisse Investment Yearbook. (Credit Suisse Global Investm...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 11, 2016 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2016
Replies: 12
Views: 664

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2015 [2016 version is out]

US annual real returns Global annual real returns Stocks Bonds Stocks Bonds 2000-2015 (latest 16 yrs) 2.3% 5.4% 1.6% 4.9% In other words, you lost a lot of money over the last sixteen years, if you were heavily invested in stocks and lightly invested in bonds. But if you invest in the long-term you...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Cynically, I'm wondering if--like some of the MSCI indexes, created in partnership with Vanguard circa 2000--perhaps the Dimensional tail wagged the S&P Dow Jones dog, and they asked S&P to design an index that matched their fund so that they could call their retirement funds "index fu...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 30, 2016 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Hi Nisi, I can't find tickers either, but these things are brand new. There launch dates are about two weeks ago. We may have to wait a while before they are actually available for purchase. The more I snoop around this product the more I am not sure what it is. The original article called them fund...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Looks like these are just indices looking for someone to turn into mutual funds. Is the thread title wrong/misleading then? Judging from the URL in the OP: benefitspro.com/2016/01/26/new-target-date- indices -built-on-tips?slreturn=1453948736 What do we have here? Indices or funds? These are Target...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Thanks, Bobcat, for the update. These duration matching structures are one of the most interesting innovations in financial products. I hope the indices are picked up into sucesful products...however, I am uncertain how well these will be marketed. I expect that their performance will deviate quite...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 30, 2016 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Hi bobcat, if we believe all the surveys and articles , a majority of people will not have enough to retire on, even if they leave "risk on" through age 70. Here is a recent high quality study of retirement preparedness. - August 2015 Conference paper - Are Retirees Falling Short? Link - ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Hi Tamales, You wrote - Hi bobcat, Could you elaborate on the arguments for how these (new TDFs) would be appropriate for the average joe whose only chance for stable retirement would seem to be to remain heavily weighted in equities very late in life, as well as possibly delaying their retirement d...
by bobcat2
Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Here is a booklet from S&P explaining the retirement strategies they use in conjunction with their S&P STRIDE Index Series TDFs.
Link - http://www.spindices.com/documents/research/research-introducing-the-sp-stride-index-series.pdf

BobK
by bobcat2
Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

A DFA team, led by Robert Merton, is the designer of this strategy. These TDFs are based on the life-cycle economics approach to personal finance, which is the only approach to personal finance consistent with economic theory. Merton is one of the fathers of life cycle economics. His path breaking t...
by bobcat2
Thu Jan 28, 2016 4:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

Re: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

I didn't read the article (registration required) but does that fund have any similarity to these SMART FUNDS(TM) Target date funds from targetdatesolutions.com? ... It says it uses primarily passive indexes, and around 15 years til retirement, "assets begin to shift into a safer asset pool (“...
by bobcat2
Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS
Replies: 18
Views: 2568

New S&P Target Date funds built on TIPS

Standard & Poor’s Dow Jones Indices has rolled out a series of target-date index funds designed to create retirement income for plan participants. Unlike traditional target-date approaches, the new products start reallocating assets to U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS, as ea...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 17, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Something unexpected has come up at home this morning and I won't be attending the BH's meeting today.

BobK
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 16, 2016 11:28 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 66
Views: 12318

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be Sunday, January 17, 3:00-5:00, in the second floor meeting room at the Arlington, VA Central Library, 1015 N. Quincy Street, Arlington, VA 22201. The second floor meeting room is on the south side of the library, just to the left of the glass enclosed quiet reading room. The...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 09, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 153
Views: 17112

Re: The Big Short

I think would be good idea if movie was added to curricula of high school senior or first year college economics and history classes. Though for high school would probably need to cut the interview with exotic dancer who owns five homes. Actually she owned five houses AND A CONDO . :D Link - https:...
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Big Short
Replies: 153
Views: 17112

Re: The Big Short

I saw the flick on Christmas Eve. I recommend Bogleheads go long on The Big Short. :wink:

BobK

PS - Richard Thaler was excellent. He was one star that I didn't know was in the movie until he showed up bigger than life on the silver screen. :)
by bobcat2
Sun Dec 27, 2015 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we call it "investing"?
Replies: 35
Views: 3313

Re: Why do we call it "investing"?

To me, it's pretty simple. --"savings" is money you didn't spend , and --"investing" is wherever you put that money. :thumbsup :thumbsup Way Way Up :!: Let me take a stab at it. Investing means deciding how to allocate your assets along the spectrum from safe to risky. But an as...
by bobcat2
Wed Dec 16, 2015 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed raises FFR [Federal Funds Rate] 0.25% as expected
Replies: 60
Views: 5856

Re: Fed raises FFR 0.25% as expected

Do I understand Summers to be saying that interest rates are now so low that the Fed can't goose the economy out of a recession by lowering rates, therefore they can't risk anything that might cause a recession, therefore they must not ever raise rates? Once interest rates are lowered close to zero...
by bobcat2
Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Delaying Social Security: What's the goal?
Replies: 47
Views: 3747

Re: Delaying Social Security: What's the goal?

For an individual with no further SS earnings after age 62, it does not much matter when you claim SS, if you are concerned about total received. Whether you claim at age 62, 66, or 70, by age 83 (your life expectancy) you will have received roughly the same amount. That's not true. If LT interest ...
by bobcat2
Wed Dec 02, 2015 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri Morningstar Interview RE: Interest Rate Increase
Replies: 2
Views: 728

Re: Rick Ferri Morningstar Interview RE: Interest Rate Increase

Two opposing views as to why the Fed should not raise the Federal Funds target interest rate. First, Larry Summers http://larrysummers.com/2015/10/07/pre-emptive-war-on-inflation-is-error/ Then Andrew Levin, a monetary expert who teaches at Dartmouth College, weighs in at the WSJ. http://blogs.wsj.c...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographics and Real Interest rates
Replies: 6
Views: 687

The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates

The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates Report by the Council of Economic Advisers surveys the latest thinking on the many drivers of interest rates, both in recent decades and into the future. - Maurice Obstfeld and Linda Tesar (July, 2015) Obstfeld was a member of the President’s Council of Econo...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 28, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 130
Views: 13592

Re: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]

What I'd like to see is a comparison of the present value of expected future lifetime benefits of those in the 1943 Cohort who claim at 62 compared to those who from the same Cohort claimed at 70 , using some conservative interest rate and the current and projected mortality of that group - I wonde...
by bobcat2
Thu Nov 26, 2015 9:41 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads Website - Security Cert Expired
Replies: 51
Views: 5645

Re: Forum software upgrade bug reports and change requests

As of this evening I have to add a security certificate exception to access Bogleheads in Firefox. I think it is the browser (it could be something else) that is reporting that the Bogleheads security certificate as of tonight is out of date.

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 23, 2015 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 130
Views: 13592

Re: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]

ubermax wrote - The authors of my earlier referenced paper do use 1% and the results don't show a significant benefit , if any, from delaying - you may want to go back and review Table 3 again. As I have explained previously that paper is irrelevant to people retiring today. Let us yet again review ...
by bobcat2
Mon Nov 23, 2015 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 130
Views: 13592

Re: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]

ubermax, What the Heiland & Yin 2014 paper you cite shows is that the system as a whole is close to be actuarially neutral if LT real interest rates are close to the LT average of almost 3%. Currently, 20 year real interest rates are 1%, which is far below the LT average. That makes it actuarial...
by bobcat2
Sun Nov 22, 2015 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]
Replies: 130
Views: 13592

Re: Do you believe that Social Security [is actuarially neutral]

I know how actuarially equivalent is defined and so I'll assume actuarially neutral means the same thing - the current early and late factors under SS do not convert the FRA benefit to the respective early/late actuarially equivalent benefit over all interest rates - This Paper!! especially Table 3...
by bobcat2
Sat Nov 21, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)
Replies: 22
Views: 2726

Re: The future for TIPS (VIPSX)

It is impossible to match liabilities using only the Vanguard ST TIPS fund. To match liabilities with TIPS, or any other bonds for that matter, you have to match the duration of the liability with the duration of the TIPS assets you hold. When holding the TIPS as mutual funds or ETFs you need to ho...

Go to advanced search