Search found 4732 matches

by bobcat2
Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 94
Views: 22123

Re: Next Meeting Sunday March 19 at Silver Spring library

Our next meeting will be from 2:30-4:30 this coming Sunday, March 19, in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library, 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. This is the second of our two planned meetings this year at the Silver Spring library. At this point we are planning on holding our four rema...
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 3265

Re: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF

In the following linked interview Larry Summers recalls his meeting with the Winklevii and how the real meeting compares with the celluloid version.
Link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4suMs5Skw88

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 3265

Re: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF

Btw, the ICA1940 ensures MFs/ETFs are safer, not insures . :wink: I'm heartbroken by this news. How will I be able to go from a mere millionaire to a multi multi millionaire if I can't short Bitcoin ETFs :?: :confused Whenever I read about the Winklevoss twins, I almost always think about the follo...
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 3265

Re: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF

I'm heartbroken by this news. How will I be able to go from a mere millionaire to a multi multi millionaire if I can't short Bitcoin ETFs :?: :confused Whenever I read about the Winklevoss twins, I almost always think about the following. Link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3JtmZugzl4 BobK :wink:
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ST TIPS Volatility
Replies: 8
Views: 460

Duration Matching of ST & LT TIPS bond funds

Duration Matching of ST & LT TIPS bond funds to replicate a TIPS ladder Here is an example of using the weighted duration of two TIPS funds in lieu of a TIPS ladder for a targeted stream of retirement payments (annual income). Example – A 63 year old wants $10,000/year in real income starting i...
by bobcat2
Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ST TIPS Volatility
Replies: 8
Views: 460

Re: ST TIPS Volatility

Much more volatility than other short term bond funds. I have no idea why. Would the short term volatility negate its value for use with RMD's? Thank you for your thoughts. Going to Morningstar I see the annual standard deviation of Vanguard's Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund (VFSTX) has a three ye...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 94
Views: 22123

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

VictoriaF wrote:The next meeting is on 19 March. Will it be in Arlington or Silver Spring? A friend is interested in coming and I'd like to pass the information.
Victoria


Hi Victoria,

It will be in Silver Spring. The four remaining meetings after March in 2017 will be in Arlington.

Best,
Bob
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telluride Film Festival
Replies: 9
Views: 555

Re: Telluride Film Festival

Flobes wrote:Telluride is 8750' high, and you'll need to prepare for altitude or it may wreck your festival days. Do you need tips about altitude?
Yes. :happy

BobK
by bobcat2
Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Telluride Film Festival
Replies: 9
Views: 555

Telluride Film Festival

My wife and I just bought passes to this year's Telluride film festival. We also have hotel reservations less than 2 miles from downtown Telluride. We are thinking about flying into Albuquerque and driving to Farmington, NM from the airport. Then on the next day, the day before the festival begins, ...
by bobcat2
Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Allocation Transitioning from Target Date Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 692

Re: Portfolio Allocation Transitioning from Target Date Funds

mtskibum16 wrote. With rising rates likely coming, I'm considering transitioning most or all of my "bond holdings" to the G fund. The TSP target date funds are currently holding ~75% of fixed income in G fund. Thoughts? I'm not that smart with bonds. What do you care whether interest rates...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017

So to answer your question in the previous 760 years of the last 1000 years, humanity had progressed very little. In the thousand years before that, there was no discernible progress. BobK Bob I think your definition of "progress" lacks a sense of history? Or perhaps I just don't understa...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2243

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017

From the report: Mankind has enjoyed a wave of transformative innovation dating from the Industrial Revolution, continuing through the Golden Age of Invention in the late 19th century, and extending into today’s information revolution. This has given rise to entire new industries: electricity and p...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

Bogel0048 writes. But the size of the portfolio you are able to accumulate by the time you retire is the unalterable fact that will determine how much post-retirement income you can achieve. No it is not an unalterable fact, and that is one of the points made by those who favor liability driven inve...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

BHs look at post retirement income flows in terms of a sustainable withdrawal rate from a target savings portfolio accumulated by retirement. Not all BHs look at post retirement income flows in those terms. Some believe the target should always be, even before retirement, the retirement income flow...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

BHs look at post retirement income flows in terms of a sustainable withdrawal rate from a target savings portfolio accumulated by retirement. Not all BHs look at post retirement income flows in those terms. Some believe the target should always be, even before retirement, the retirement income flow...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

Hi Bogel0048, I suggest you read at least parts of the second paper I linked to, namely "The Case for Bonds for Financial Security". In particular read the subsections, "MPT and Challenges for Retail Investors - MPT and Liabilities", and "Focus on the Wrong Objective", ...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

Re: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

Hi Bob, Does Modigliania's plan include borrowing prior to retirement. For current DC plans I believe that one of the reasons they are not as large as they might be is due to employees borrowing from 401Ks prior to retirement. Hi S**, :D Here is a Washington Post article from several years ago that...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

The Case for Bonds for Financial Security (BFFS)

Abstract: There is a looming retirement crisis globally with the three pillars of retirement threatened because of insufficient funding, improper investment decisions, and transferring risk to individuals who are least capable of bearing such risk. This paper argues that the introduction of a uniqu...
by bobcat2
Wed Feb 15, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model
Replies: 19
Views: 1875

An Effective DC Plan: The Flex MMM Model

Robert Merton and Arun Muralidhar propose a DC Pension Plan that combines three innovations: (a) Merton's retirement income approach; (b) the late Franco Modigliani's innovative approach to allow short term borrowing from retirement accounts to meet life-cycle needs; and (c) Muralidhar's innovative ...
by bobcat2
Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: welcome home bogleheads.org
Replies: 30
Views: 2769

Re: welcome home bogleheads.org

Thank you very much Larry :!: :beer

Best,
BobK :happy
by bobcat2
Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I called Vanguard this morning to inquire why all Principal life annuity quotes, including real life annuities, now show up as N/A. The annuity specialist at Vanguard told me that as of last week Vanguard no longer works with Principal, but the technical issues have not been resolved in showing quot...
by bobcat2
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

i'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that perhaps the Principal real life annuities are somewhat of a ripoff- i.e. have too much commission baked into them to be palatable to Vanguard/"Income Solutions" to offer on their platform. Again all of this feels like a market failure- not...
by bobcat2
Sat Feb 04, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

What I find hilarious is how the option to buy an Inflation-Indexed SPIA just quietly disappeared. Did any retirement expert say if you were planning to buy one you better get it before they run out? There was no announcement by anyone that a deadline was coming up. Nope, just suddenly one day the ...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I saw a whitepaper from Moshe Milevsky where he said that based on private insurance data fewer than 1% of annuity quotes were for full CPI-linked annuities and fewer than 9% wanted any kind of adjustment at all. That isn't that surprising. Money illusion remains alive and well. Supposedly the stan...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

As of today, I'm seeing The Principal still listed, but "no quote" in ANY column, not even "single life only" (the leftmost column, no increases). Yes. After reading the above I tried getting life annuity quotes from "The Principal", but the results were N/A for any li...
by bobcat2
Fri Feb 03, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I suspect the main reason few insurance companies offer real life annuities is lack of demand, which is probably due to low inflation and the great majority of Americans being confused when it comes to money illusion. Not understanding money illusion was a problem when Irving Fisher first discussed ...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

The only firm quoting an inflation-adjusted annuity was The Principal. But, they quoted them! Various survivor benefits were also available for joint annuities. I also compared to a fixed percentage increase, and the pricing of a CPI was between the pricing of the 2%- and 3%-increasing ones, closer...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

I just checked immediateannuities.com, and Principal does offer (thru them) a CPI adjusted immediate annuity. Joe Seeing your post I also checked at immediateannuities.com, and Principal does offer (thru immediateannuities) CPI adjusted immediate annuities in Md. It's strange that Principal is also...
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

The Wizard wrote:It's easy enough to do modest additional annuitizations every so often to combat inflation.

How do you do it after age 85 when you need it most?

BobK
by bobcat2
Thu Feb 02, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard
Replies: 120
Views: 5591

Re: No Inflation-Adjusted SPIAs at Vanguard

When I checked the Vanguard Income Solutions portal about 10 days ago one company, I think it was Lincoln * , was offering inflation-indexed life annuities, both immediate and deferred. After seeing this thread I checked today and no companies are offering inflation-indexed annuities. :( My state of...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

In using the funded ratio the step that generates by far the most contention, is how to go about calculating the denominator, the price of the retirement income goal. Here is an article I came across this evening by Moshe Milevsky from a few years ago that concurs that the best way to price the reti...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 29, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans
Replies: 6
Views: 976

Re: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans

Thanks,but i guess i'm unimpressed. Looks like just a "me too" of the DFA target date funds approach. Sure you can annuitize on retirement but you will be subject to whatever they are doing with annuity rates at that point in time. The DFA approach is useful but one can replicate it onese...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans
Replies: 6
Views: 976

New Retirement Income Solution for DC Retirement Plans

TIAA is launching new custom target date funds (TDFs) for Defined Contribution (DC) retirement plans. These new TDFs include a mechanism for converting retirement savings into pension-like income during retirement. TIAA calls one of these new series of TDFs, the Target Income Models. According to TI...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Investors planning for retirement can use annuity pricing to easily calculate an overall funded ratio. Take the example where the investor is expecting a nominal pension and Social Security in addition to retirement income generated by their portfolio. That investor can calculate a funded ratio usin...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 22, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Hi Bob, Thanks for the update with Merton's revised calculation. Hi Sa*, :wink: I'm sure this was Merton's original intent, and not a revision on his part. The revision is on my part. The finance professor who in your words, talks like a Brooklyn cabbie, is always ahead of the rest of us. :) Best, ...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 22, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funded ratio

I went to the Income Solutions website, and saw that it will give you prices of real life annuities starting many years in the future. I'll bet that surprised you. I know it surprised me to find that out last week. 8-) Keep in mind that deferred real life annuities do not account for inflation duri...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 21, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: MEA CULPA

Bob, how should one go about getting the present (i.e. today's) value of a real life annuity starting in the future? Should one: 1. Get a quote today for the real life annuity starting at the future age. 2. Discount that number to today using a real interest rate. Thanks, Alec Hi Alec, "Get a ...
by bobcat2
Sat Jan 21, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

MEA CULPA

I offer a mea culpa for how I have priced the income liability of the funded ratio for individuals. I now believe the better way to price the retirement income liability in the denominator of the funded ratio (FR) is to use the price of a real life annuity. If you are at retirement or in retirement,...
by bobcat2
Fri Jan 20, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How Much Inflation Protection Do You Need?"
Replies: 7
Views: 1503

Re: "How Much Inflation Protection Do You Need?"

For most people their portfolio is primarily for providing income during retirement. It follows that the investor's concerns about inflation should not be with protecting the portfolio against inflation, but rather protecting retirement income against inflation. This change in perspective is far fro...
by bobcat2
Wed Jan 18, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Using the funded ratio to drive retirement investment strategy

Goal Based Investing focused on what matters most: Income Investments Planning Process Conventional Retirement Goal-Based Retirement Investment Goal Wealth accumulation Retirement Income (No specified wealth Goal) (Specified desired income goal) Risk Measure Volatility of portfolio returns Volatili...
by bobcat2
Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to annuitize?
Replies: 36
Views: 4024

Re: When to annuitize?

When to annuitize?

Not all at once, but instead in chunks. 8-)

BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 94
Views: 22123

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

I have written an article on the funded ratio, the topic of this afternoon’s meeting, that is now available at the Bogleheads blog site. BH Barry Barnitz maintains the blog on his personal financial page. Here is a link to the article - Monitoring Your Retirement Goal – the Funded Ratio https://blba...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Monitoring Your Retirement Goal – the Funded Ratio

A much revised version of the original post in this thread is now available at the Bogleheads Blog. Barry Barnitz maintains the BH Blog on his personal blog at Financial Page. Here is a link to the revised version - Monitoring Your Retirement Goal – the Funded Ratio https://blbarnitz4.wordpress.com/...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 09, 2017 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Hi JamesG, The funding ratio (FR) is not a forecast. However, there is nothing that prevents a retirement investor from forecasting what the size of their portfolio will be sometime in the future (by whatever method they choose) and calculating the PV of the retirement income liability at that futur...
by bobcat2
Sun Jan 08, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 94
Views: 22123

Next Meeting Sunday Jan 15 @ Silver Spring library

Our next meeting will be from 2:30-4:30 next Sunday, January 15, in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library, 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. (The reason for the time change is that the meeting room closes at 4:30 and the library closes at 5:00.) This will be our first of two planned mee...
by bobcat2
Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

OP: I never got your point/motivation of this thread. For individuals from Kiplinger. In planning for retirement, you have probably crunched many numbers: the value of your investment portfolio, the income stream from Social Security or a pension, your projected annual spending, and your life expec...
by bobcat2
Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

The problem with calculating the funding ratio may be that it requires a paradigm/cognitive shift. To me calculating the funding ratio is common sense. Of course if you can not afford to depend on the "number" as in that you cut it to close and and you may be victim to vicissitudes of sto...
by bobcat2
Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Quotes from another thread where the funding ratio (FR) is discussed. Unfortunately the funding ratio is based on funding retirement with a TIPS ladder which is going to be very tough with a 60 year horizon. One can up the discount rate to say assume a higher return based on holding stocks and bonds...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 02, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

What is a real discount number? I don't understand what present value actually is. Why do I need to calculate it? I have the current balance of my accounts. The real interest rate is the rate of interest an investor, saver or lender receives (or expects to receive) after allowing for inflation. Use...
by bobcat2
Mon Jan 02, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio
Replies: 191
Views: 22788

Re: Your Retirement Number, or, calculating the funding ratio

Let me put it another way, your way is too incredibly complicated with way too many variables to be estimated that you can't possibly get to. What discount rate will you use for your PV starting 25 years from now? How to calculate the FR with only retirement portfolio and SS & you treat SS as i...

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