Search found 4582 matches

by bobcat2
Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keys to a Successful Retirement
Replies: 55
Views: 6479

Keys to a Successful Retirement

Here are several ways Americans in their early 50s or older could better secure a financially sound retirement, particularly in a low return environment. A successful retirement here is defined as being able to sustain the standard of living in retirement that the household had obtained in the sever...
by bobcat2
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Different Worlds
Replies: 12
Views: 1650

Two Different Worlds

Two Different Worlds Divide the last nearly 34 years of real annual total returns in the US stock market into approximately two halves. The first 17 years (12/31/1982 - 12/31/1999) And the last 16 years & 8 months (12/31/1999 - 8/31/2016) Real Annual Total Return US Stock Market 12/31/1982 - 12...
by bobcat2
Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fee only financial planner in Milwaukee-Madison area
Replies: 4
Views: 395

Re: Fee only financial planner in Milwaukee-Madison area

Paula Hogan - She is one of America's top financial planners. She is also one of the leaders in napfa - the organization of fee only financial planners. Links to websites - http://findanadvisor.napfa.org/Members.aspx/View/2894/5429 http://hoganfinancial.com/ BobK
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

...[the]Siegel take is based on actual long-term empirical evidence--what has actually happened in 25 different countries for two hundred years . What data set is being used that has 200 years of data on 25 different countries? The Triumph data has results for about 25 countries, but that data begi...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Hi Patrick, Here are my back of the envelope estimates of Japanese stock and bond returns 1989-2015 combining Yearbook data and last year's update. This was a quick and dirty estimate, but I think it's reasonably close to the actual results. annual real return 1989-2015 Japanese stocks -1.5% Japanes...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

You can believe as Seigel does that stocks are relatively safe high return assets in the LR. Or you can believe, as most financial economists believe, that stocks are risky investments regardless of the holding period. Obvious example - Japanese stocks from 1989 to the present, where the real retur...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

LDI ? LR ? LDI - liability driven investing This is sometimes called goal-based investing. Liability-driven investment policies and asset management decisions are those largely determined by the sum of current and future liabilities attached to the investor, be it a household or an institution. As ...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

duffer - You can believe as Seigel does that stocks are relatively safe high return assets in the LR. Or you can believe, as most financial economists believe, that stocks are risky investments regardless of the holding period. Obvious example - Japanese stocks from 1989 to the present, where the re...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

And one quick observation about Zvi Bodie, I confess I like the guy. His viewpoints are interesting, even if nothing else. He also seems quite charming, and would probably be fun to hang around. That being said, it would be an understatement to say his views towards investing and portfolio manageme...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

BobK Your (and Nisiprius's) account of the implications of the Pastor-Stambaugh work for this debate is quite misleading. Pastor and Stambaugh have specifically declined to see any implication of their present work for asset allocations. The reason they do not is that the point they are arguing abo...
by bobcat2
Sun Aug 21, 2016 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Duffer - Looking at stock returns of 15 years or more in only the US stock & bond markets tells us little reliably about the relative LR returns of equities vs.bonds. US stock market data is at best dubious before 1890. That leaves us with 8 independent samples of 15 year returns, which is not ...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Duffer - Looking at stock returns of 15 years or more in only the US stock & bond markets tells us little reliably about the relative LR returns of equities vs.bonds. US stock market data is at best dubious before 1890. That leaves us with 8 independent samples of 15 year returns, which is not n...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Here is more from Jeremy Siegel on investing for retirement from the same panel discussion earlier this year. If a target date fund is a fund that is designed to hit a particular objective, or to get as close as you can to a particular objective, it would save investors the trouble of trying to figu...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Duffer here is what Siegal said earlier this year about investing for retirement. (The previous discussions) reinforce the need for goal- or liability-driven investing. ... [I]t is important to decide whether the pot is a savings account or a retirement account. It is hard to have two different goal...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 20, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Here is Jeremy Siegel discussing risk when investing for retirement. (The previous discussions) reinforce the need for goal- or liability-driven investing. Forget about strategies. What is the risk-free rate for investors? You cannot know what risk is until you know the time frame of the investors. ...
by bobcat2
Sat Aug 20, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?
Replies: 115
Views: 7269

Re: Are there other reasons besides volatility to avoid 100% equities?

Volatility is a measure of investing risk (uncertainty) – nothing more, nothing less. It shows that the riskiness of stocks stays about the same over time, unless there is significant mean reversion over time. But recent research, alluded to by Nisiprius earlier in this thread, shows that the riskin...
by bobcat2
Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Articles that have provoked thought and reflection
Replies: 21
Views: 2607

Applying life-cycle economics: Article that provoked thought and reflection

Applying life-cycle economics by Robert Merton An eight page guide on how to integrate the accumulation and payout phases of retirement planning. Much good advice is crammed into this brochure. One piece of particularly good advice is where Merton discusses level 2 safe income and discusses why it ...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 05, 2016 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?
Replies: 12
Views: 1871

Re: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?

Bobcat wrote: " Life annuities are more sought out by relatively healthy seniors, while LTCi is more sought out by those of less than average health." Would you kindly provide data on the observation about who purchases LTCI? Anecdotally, this is not my observation in my college town. I d...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?
Replies: 12
Views: 1871

Re: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?

What insurers offer Life Care Annuities? Several have tried offering them and stopped is my understanding. People don't ask for them, because they have never heard of them. Life annuity agents supposedly don't like promoting them because they are touting a product, a life annuity, about how you wil...
by bobcat2
Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?
Replies: 12
Views: 1871

Re: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?

I will have to learn more about life care annuities, it is an interesting idea. It comes with additional fees. :idea: :annoyed NO. The basic idea of the life care annuity is that the adverse selection property of each of the individual products is opposite the adverse selection property of the othe...
by bobcat2
Tue Aug 02, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?
Replies: 12
Views: 1871

Re: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?

Most of the insurance and investment products needed already exist, including index funds and ETFs, various types of annuities and even reverse mortgages to generate retirement income from home equity. However, enhancements are needed to better meet the needs of retirees. A useful annuity enhanceme...
by bobcat2
Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking to the Future: Lo - Merton - Ross - Seigel
Replies: 4
Views: 556

Re: Looking to the Future: Lo - Merton - Ross - Seigel

Merton - So, if you are going to live longer and if you want to work the same number of years as your parents did, you have to save more to pay for that longer life and thus you have to cut your standard of living . If you want to enjoy the same standard of living as your parents did, you have to wo...
by bobcat2
Mon Aug 01, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Quote -- topic for discussion
Replies: 16
Views: 699

Re: Risk Quote -- topic for discussion

Of course you can measure financial risk, aka speculative risk. These are techniques for measuring the uncertainty of financial outcomes. Standard deviation, beta, option implied volatility, and swap prices are among the measures of speculative risk. I hope you are not shocked if I tell you that non...
by bobcat2
Mon Aug 01, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking to the Future: Lo - Merton - Ross - Seigel
Replies: 4
Views: 556

Looking to the Future: Lo - Merton - Ross - Seigel

Looking to the Future - Q Group panel discussion looking into the future of finance - with an emphasis on retirement planning. The discussants were Andrew Lo, Robert Merton, Stephen Ross, and Jeremy Siegel. The panel moderator was Martin Leibowitz, a managing director at Morgan Stanley. Here are so...
by bobcat2
Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?
Replies: 12
Views: 1871

Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business?

Who Will Dominate the Retirement Advice Business? - article by Joe Tomlinson in Advisor Perspectives . What Joe thinks needs to be done and then some reasoned speculation about which firms might do it and end up dominating the field. Here are some highlights about what needs to be done. In the way ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self insure for LTC using Reverse Mortgage HECM?
Replies: 38
Views: 1895

Re: Self insure for LTC using Reverse Mortgage HECM?

See these earlier threads for discussions of paying for LTC in general and using reverse mortgages to pay for LTC in particular. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=176479&p=2669010&hilit=long+term+care#p2669010 https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 29, 2016 3:02 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Retirement Research Consortium (RRC) Meeting

The 2016 Retirement Research Consortium (RRC) Meeting will be held next Thursday & Friday August 4-5, 2016, at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The event is free of charge, but registration is required. Free box lunches that are reasonably tasty are provided each day. I have posted mor...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)
Replies: 5
Views: 680

Re: Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)

Earlier in this thread I semi-joked about Amazon getting into the reverse mortgage business when I listed some of the presentation topics at this year's RRC meeting. How Home Equity Extraction and Reverse Mortgages Affect the Financial Well-Being of Senior Households - Stephanie Moulton and Donald H...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)
Replies: 5
Views: 680

Re: Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)

Looks great. After the live stream, do you know if there will be links to the videos if we can't watch it while it's streaming ? I don't know whether they do that or not, but I don't think it's important. That's because they do post the papers and the presentation slides online after the conference...
by bobcat2
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

BobK, Thank you for presenting at the meeting and for very useful advice in the restaurant. I have followed up on some of your suggestions. Victoria Hi Victoria, With regard to my presentation at the last local meeting, I still haven't heard back from the reporter - Maybe the story has been spiked....
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 27, 2016 10:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)
Replies: 5
Views: 680

Retirement Research Conference in DC next week (free!)

The 2016 Retirement Research Consortium (RRC) Meeting will be held next Thursday & Friday August 4-5, 2016, at the National Press Club in Washington, DC. The event is free of charge, but registration is required. Free box lunches that are reasonably tasty are provided each day. Registration is f...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good book on global economics?
Replies: 8
Views: 682

Re: Good book on global economics?

The undergraduate textbook, International Economics: Theory and Policy , by Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld. Krugman won a Nobel Prize in economics for his work in international trade theory. Obstfeld is a leading theoretician in international economics and is currently Chief Economist at the Inte...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Well - I am retiring at 73. Everything I earn from my job plus full SS is taxed heavily. I'm even going to have to pay medicare premiums as I worked longer, pensions and 401K increased. If the objective is to encourage people to work longer, the tax code for those working after 65 needs to change. ...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Rethinking Retirement Basically, Merton says it boils down to this: “You either have to work longer or accept a lower standard of living. What you can’t do is work the same number of years as your parents, live longer and enjoy the same standard of living. That’s not feasible.” Link - http://www.re...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Reverse Mortgage Line of Credit
Replies: 20
Views: 2624

Re: Reverse Mortgage Line of Credit

Rethinking Retirement But the picture is not entirely bleak, as (Robert) Merton points out. “There is good news, and I underscore, it is very good news: Future generations are going to live longer. This is great. But, as with many good things, there comes another challenge, which is simply how to f...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 23, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Rethinking Retirement But the picture is not entirely bleak, as (Robert) Merton points out. “There is good news, and I underscore, it is very good news: Future generations are going to live longer. This is great. But, as with many good things, there comes another challenge, which is simply how to f...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

In the real world US productivity rates have grown much slower since 1970 than they did from 1920-1970. How can this be? We have had the personal computer revolution, the internet, smart phones, software that has revolutionized white collar work, robots performing manufacturing functions, the rise ...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Hi, I live in the Washington dc area and would like to participate. Can I register for a listserv or something to receive notifications of upcoming meetings? Bryan Here is a link where you can request to join the local DC Bogleheads group, aka DC Vanguard Diehards. We send out two emails to local m...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Are we talking about 2 different things when we speak of the world being awash in capital? There is the capital that actually makes things - human and machine. There are the mechanisms of exchange (coconuts) that buy things. Am I understand the argument correctly in rephrasing it as we cannot only ...
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Philociraptor wrote: In the real world, production rates are always improving.

In the real world US productivity rates have grown much slower since 1970 than they did from 1920-1970.

BobK
by bobcat2
Tue Jul 19, 2016 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

... as a nation the answer has to be longer careers and/or increases in productivity (or reduced income). If the whole nation saved like Bogleheads it would not fix the problem, because it would not increase GDP. But if the whole nation saved like Bogleheads - who do not stuff mattresses with green...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9342

Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers Presentation on modern retirement by John Shoven of Stanford. No need for me to comment, Shoven's presentation speaks for itself. Link to presentation slides - http://gflec.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/a738b9_cf0065e923304...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 16, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

Our next meeting will be this Sunday, July 17, from 2:30-4:30 in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library ( note new location ), 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. See posts up thread from Friday for more on new location. Here are links to things that will be touched on at the meeting. Do H...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Re: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads

How do I sign up for the meeting on Sunday the 17th? Also, given the fee the library charges for the space, is there a fee for attending? By showing up at the library. :) There is no fee for attending. The fee is $15 per hour and two or three of us are splitting it up among ourselves. If we didn't ...
by bobcat2
Fri Jul 15, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Master thread for Washington DC Area Bogleheads
Replies: 84
Views: 18793

Re: Next meeting this Sunday July 17, Silver Spring Library at 2:30

Our next meeting will be this Sunday, July 17, from 2:30-4:30 in meeting room #2 at the Silver Spring Library ( note new location ), 900 Wayne Ave, Silver Spring, MD 20910. (The reason for the time change is that the meeting room closes at 4:30 and the library closes at 5:00.) Click on the above Sil...
by bobcat2
Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2313

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

At this point, I do not think there is any one solution to the update problem--my two machines were different. My advice is to backup your computer by downloading a windows image to an external disk drive. Then try some of the solutions on this thread or do a search for others. Good advice :!: :bee...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2313

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

I checked the roll up but it only includes updates through April 2016. I have installed updates through that month so I will put in a tickler to check the Microsoft website in a month for new updates to the roll up package. Installing the roll up package thru April may correct the problem you are h...
by bobcat2
Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2313

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

My remaining Windows 7 machine is still non-updatable. You can now go to the Windows website and download a role up of all Windows 7 updates since Service Pack 1. Each month Microsoft will update the role up by adding the latest patches. I downloaded the role up last month but magically all the PCs...
by bobcat2
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2313

Re: Windows 7 updates for broker fraud protection

We have three Windows 7 computers in the house and over the last year or so I have had numerous problems getting different computers to update the Windows monthly patches. Usually the FixIt tool does not fix the problem. I have managed to eventually get all the machines to update, but it has sometim...
by bobcat2
Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Perspective on Asset Allocation in Retirement Situation
Replies: 18
Views: 1339

Re: Perspective on Asset Allocation in Retirement Situation

A little perspective / opinion / advice from the BH collective is requested.  Alternatively, even if the portfolio dropped by 50% we'd still be 'good'. Why not take a shot at providing heirs with something truly substantial and use 80% equities / 20% fixed income?  What would you do, or recommend, ...

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