Search found 129 matches

by blueleaf
Sun Jul 16, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: california homeowners - do you have earthquake insurance?
Replies: 79
Views: 6699

Re: california homeowners - do you have earthquake insurance?

Thanks all, some great info to think about in this thread. I think we'll probably go ahead and get the earthquake coverage, but there's good arguments on both sides.
by blueleaf
Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: california homeowners - do you have earthquake insurance?
Replies: 79
Views: 6699

california homeowners - do you have earthquake insurance?

Hi folks, We live in the Bay Area, and we're trying to decide whether it's smart to get earthquake insurance. We moved into a single family home in Oakland last summer. Curious what other bogleheads who own homes in CA have decided. Here's my thinking so far: Pros: - insures against catastrophic los...
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Higher downpayment for lower rate?

Jimb,
Thanks for your incredibly thorough take on this. It's going to take me a little bit to fully process, but you've given me a lot to think about. Thanks very much for you effort.
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 25, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Higher downpayment for lower rate?

Ok, I may have answered my own question on the 3% transaction cost estimate. According to the broker, those costs would break out as follows: Appraisal $550 Title/Escrow – varies from price point and loan amount, assume $3,850 City Transfer Tax ($7.00 for every $1,000 of purchase value) ($4,500 on $...
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Higher downpayment for lower rate?

The 3% transaction cost estimate was provided to me by this mortgage broker, but also by other real estate folks in this area as a rule of thumb for all-in costs to the buyer. For what it's worth, the NYTimes buy/rent calculator includes a 4% default for home purchase transaction costs (more than t...
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Higher downpayment for lower rate?

Thanks all for your interest, advice and concern. To be clear, this is all input to making an offer on a condo. The 3% transaction cost estimate was provided to me by this mortgage broker, but also by other real estate folks in this area as a rule of thumb for all-in costs to the buyer. I believe it...
by blueleaf
Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Re: Higher downpayment for lower rate?

jimb_fromATL wrote:
Got more details?

jimb



Thanks for your thoughts! Here are the two options:

$600k, 20% down, rate = 4.125%, estimated closing costs 3% of purchase price (~$18k)
$600k, 25% down, rate = 3.875%%, estimated closing costs 3% of purchase price (~$18k)
by blueleaf
Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher downpayment for lower rate?
Replies: 16
Views: 1238

Higher downpayment for lower rate?

My wife and I are about to buy a condo. We have cash available to pay 20% down and closing costs. The mortgage broker let us know that if we put down 25%, we can get a more favorable interest rate. We'd have to come up with the ~$30k that we hadn't previously planned to use for this purpose. The way...
by blueleaf
Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance/Social Security Widow Benefit
Replies: 10
Views: 2084

Re: Life insurance/Social Security Widow Benefit

I believe the earnings test is as you stated and is no different for a widow.



Got it, so if I died, and my wife kept working, it sounds like she could count on SS survivor benefit for the child, but not for herself?
by blueleaf
Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life insurance/Social Security Widow Benefit
Replies: 10
Views: 2084

Re: Life insurance/Social Security Widow Benefit

I have a similar question to the OP, and wondered if the folks watching this thread could help me clarify something. My wife and I have a baby on the way and we're deciding how much life insurance to get. Social Security is a factor. Question is, does the social security "earnings test" ap...
by blueleaf
Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance
Replies: 32
Views: 3286

Re: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance

Paying for one large level-term policy for 30 years...? Would you really need the full amount when 25 years have already passed by? Using something like a smaller 30 year, plus 20 year, plus 10 year term policies would make sense under normal spending. That 30-year part would include the final year...
by blueleaf
Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance
Replies: 32
Views: 3286

Re: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance

So it might look like this: $500k for the mortgage, $200k to fully fund a private college (assumption being the return will keep pace with college inflation which has been about 6%), and $75k a year for the rest of their life. (Easiest thing for this one is to see what a SPIA for 75k a year costs a...
by blueleaf
Mon Jul 20, 2015 12:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance
Replies: 32
Views: 3286

Re: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance

Thanks everyone for your helpful input!
by blueleaf
Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance
Replies: 32
Views: 3286

Re: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance

We bought 30 year term at about your age and still have it. I never heard of a plan that goes down in value every year. Do the payments go down by enough to make that worthwhile ? I liked the assurance of a set amount even though our debt is going down with time, teenagers are awfully expensive ! Y...
by blueleaf
Sun Jul 19, 2015 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - help with term life insurance
Replies: 32
Views: 3286

Baby on the way - help with term life insurance

Hi Bogleheads, My wife and I are expect our first child in January, and we're exploring options for term life insurance. We'd be interested in your opinion on how: how much, the right term, and how to go about applying. I'm 36 and she's 34. We have our first on the way, and we're thinking we might w...
by blueleaf
Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?
Replies: 18
Views: 3215

Re: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?

Thanks all for your thoughtful advice. After a lot of back-and-forth, we decided to pass on making an offer.

The supposedly $550k condo (our estimate, which was itself 20% over asking) is now under contract for $610k. Yikes. It's a jungle out there.
by blueleaf
Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?
Replies: 18
Views: 3215

Re: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?

Congrats on the new addition! If it were me, I would rent and evaluate after things have settled down. This is my instinct as well. However... Waiting seems prudent, but we do feel a little worried about what the market will do. Inner Bay Area home prices (ownership and rental) have appreciated pre...
by blueleaf
Mon Jun 15, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?
Replies: 18
Views: 3215

Re: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?

Thanks all for your great input so far! I love this forum and I really appreciate your taking the time. Also, a good way to do it is to live on that house budget for 3-4 months. Pay your mortgage, hoa, say $1000 a month in maintenance, and childcare to a separate bank account for those 3-4 months an...
by blueleaf
Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?
Replies: 18
Views: 3215

Baby on the way - can we afford to buy a house?

My wife and I currently rent a one bedroom apartment in Oakland, CA. We're expecting our first child in January, and trying to decide what our next move is. We're considering making an offer on a two-bedroom condo that we will think will cost about $550k. House Prince: $550k, HOA $350, property tax ...
by blueleaf
Fri Mar 27, 2015 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Financial Implications of Moving in Together
Replies: 59
Views: 4608

Re: The Financial Implications of Moving in Together

If you're living together but not married, I think it makes sense to have a clear understanding of mine, yours, and ours, and to budget accordingly. Roommate-ish I suppose. You'll probably find that cohabitation allows you to save a lot of money, on rent if nothing else. That being the case, I'd say...
by blueleaf
Sun Mar 15, 2015 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Philosophical Economics: Introducing the Total Return EPS
Replies: 16
Views: 2729

Re: Philosophical Economics: Introducing the Total Return EP

Thanks for posting. I love reading this guy's work. I have no idea if his forecast is right, of course, but he's so thoughtful and crafty with the data. It definitely makes sense that eps should grow faster if you allocate more earnings to buybacks and investment and less to dividends. Bernstein's e...
by blueleaf
Fri Mar 13, 2015 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 31540

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Expected returns as computed by the good doctor assume a return to the mean (in terms of valuations) over the coming decade or two. Do they? For US stocks, 2% dividend yield + 1.5% dividend growth = 3.5% real return, which is pretty consistent with the 3-4% he's quoted as forecasting in this piece....
by blueleaf
Fri Mar 13, 2015 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 31540

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

A quick clarification: Bernstein's expected returns are not based on the assumption that the market will crash, but on the assumption that it won't crash. They're based on current dividend yields, historical earnings per share growth rates, and no future change in valuation . Current cash flow and ...
by blueleaf
Thu Mar 12, 2015 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years
Replies: 216
Views: 31540

Re: Bernstein: 2% investment returns over next 20 years

Would a 50% drawdown in the S&P 500 surprise me? back to 1000. something fundamental in the world would have to break badly. Things happen. I think it's a bit ridiculous to codify this level of negativity into your "expected returns". A quick clarification: Bernstein's expected return...
by blueleaf
Tue Mar 10, 2015 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to buy international funds
Replies: 34
Views: 3910

Re: Convince me to buy international funds

Because every dog has its day, and nobody knows nothin. For what it's worth, here's the returns for US Total Market and Total International since 1972, per Portfolio Visualizer. US has had a good run recently, but it looks to me like they've traded places several times over the decades, just as you'...
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 12, 2015 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue using a financial planner ?
Replies: 33
Views: 2586

Re: Should I continue using a financial planner ?

SteveB1 wrote: Very nice, thank you for taking the time to put this together.


My pleasure. Welcome and good luck!
by blueleaf
Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue using a financial planner ?
Replies: 33
Views: 2586

Re: Should I continue using a financial planner ?

Hi Steve, Welcome to the forum. Here are some thoughts in response to your query: 1. It makes sense to question your arrangement with your adviser. 2. The portfolio your adviser has constructed is not good at all. More concerning than poor results is the poor strategy - you're taking too much risk f...
by blueleaf
Wed Feb 11, 2015 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Small Cap Value Funds (Poll)
Replies: 31
Views: 7110

Re: Best Small Cap Value Funds (Poll)

I wonder what share of PXSV's total market cap is accounted for by the 14 people who picked it in this poll...
by blueleaf
Sun Feb 08, 2015 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS - Right Priced but Right Investment?
Replies: 14
Views: 1890

Re: TIPS - Right Priced but Right Investment?

TIPS, or real-return bonds, are, in my opinion, best understood by comparison with nominal-return bonds. I'll call them TIPS and nominals. The major participants in the bond market buy and sell both types. It isn't as if there's one population using TIPS, and a different using nominals. That's good...
by blueleaf
Sat Feb 07, 2015 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPs ladder?
Replies: 15
Views: 1531

Re: Retirement planning

Even if you don't care about return of principal, it's worth noting that SPIA's have credit risk (your insurance company could fail) and inflation risk. On the other hand, a TIPS ladder has longevity risk (you could live longer than 30 years). Better than either: Using your cash pile to delay drawin...
by blueleaf
Fri Dec 05, 2014 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.
Replies: 106
Views: 15203

Re: Bogle Advises Investing No More Than 20% Outside U.S.

Bogle's preferred investment is S&P 500 index funds, which he invented, which made his career, and which built vanguard into a giant. No shocker that he's staying the course. The world is full of other good investments though.
by blueleaf
Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: ishares Total Market vs Vanguard Large&Mid
Replies: 8
Views: 2185

Re: Emerging Markets: ishares Total Market vs Vanguard Large

For my money the most meaningful difference between the two funds is that IEGM tracks the MSCI index, which includes South Korea at about 15% of holdings. VWO tracks the FTSE index, which does not include South Korea. And which of these two options do you prefer? I use IEMG. My 401k is at Fidelity ...
by blueleaf
Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets: ishares Total Market vs Vanguard Large&Mid
Replies: 8
Views: 2185

Re: Emerging Markets: ishares Total Market vs Vanguard Large

For my money the most meaningful difference between the two funds is that IEGM tracks the MSCI index, which includes South Korea at about 15% of holdings. VWO tracks the FTSE index, which does not include South Korea.
by blueleaf
Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt
Replies: 44
Views: 7567

Re: Cambria Global Value - Value Tilt

I thought this was an insightful commentary on the limitations of using pe10 to compare value across countries and sectors, particularly after a financial crisis.

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2 ... alue-trap/

My takeaway: when an asset looks cheap, sometimes there's a good reason.
by blueleaf
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AGG vs BND [iShares Core US vs. Vanguard Total Mkt]
Replies: 14
Views: 3764

Re: AGG vs BND

They follow the same index and have the same expense ratio. For all practical purposes they are identical. If you have to choose between these ETFs, use the on you don't have to pay a commission for.

If you have access to the mutual fund version from Fidelity, use that instead.
by blueleaf
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article in todays WSJ--stocks are risky even for millennials
Replies: 18
Views: 4596

Re: article in todays WSJ--stocks are risky even for millenn

Well, here's one millennial who has been happy plugging along with an all-stock portfolio since 2007... Why are my compatriots hoarding so much cash? Holding 50% of your portfolio in cash (as an accumulator) is the financial equivalent of hitting yourself in the face with a brick twice a week. You ...
by blueleaf
Tue Nov 04, 2014 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein
Replies: 33
Views: 4822

Re: Christine Benz Interviews Bill Bernstein

There's more posted at Morningstar--this time Bill Bernstein on the "retirement crisis." A sample of his comments: [i]"I think what we have to do is to try to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. The Humpty Dumpty in this case being the old DB system, which very few people have any...
by blueleaf
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 3253

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

Personally, I lean toward a future of persistently low asset yields and high valuations for the foreseeable future (The New Neutral). It's difficult to see where on the global horizon the growth and net demand for investment capital would come from to pressure real interest rates and earnings growt...
by blueleaf
Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns
Replies: 32
Views: 3253

Re: Three Possible Outcomes for Future Investment Returns

There are two things going in with the downward sloping s&p 500 line. One is higher valuation, as you've noted. The other is that companies are responding to US tax policy by directing less of their earnings to dividends and more to net buybacks. Since net buybacks generate shareholder value in ...
by blueleaf
Wed Oct 15, 2014 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment: It’s About Time in the Market, Not Market Timing
Replies: 2
Views: 921

Re: Betterment: It’s About Time in the Market, Not Market Ti

I agree with the headline and I think betterment is a nice service, but thats a bad piece if analysis. There's only 80some independent one year periods in that sample... making 12000 by rolling them doesn't add much. Plus the US market is an outlier over that time period.
by blueleaf
Tue Oct 14, 2014 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 6349

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

"Assuming a DOW in 2014 of 17000, and based on an assumed annual gain of 8%, the DOW will be around 171,000 in 2044 when today's retirees will be dying, 37,396,000 in 2114 , 8.2x10*10 in 2214, and 1.8x10*15 in 2314. That's some serious industrial growth." Don't forget about dividends. Divi...
by blueleaf
Sun Oct 12, 2014 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Losing money, please advise
Replies: 36
Views: 6561

Re: Losing money, please advise

Hi varshakgan, I agree with the previous commenters. These are excellent, low cost, well-diversified investment choices. When your plan is good, it's best to stick with it through the ups and downs. One other thing to think about: if you're going to run with this plan, it will beimportant to make su...
by blueleaf
Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: inherited 500k, still a college student, how to invest???
Replies: 55
Views: 11154

Re: inherited 500k, still a college student, how to invest??

Hi GardenofEden, I'm very sorry about your dad. Here's some thoughts: 1. Get some clarity on whose money it is. While it's in your name legally, do you think of this money as half yours and half you brother's? Or is it yours, with a certain understanding that you will provide for certain needs of hi...
by blueleaf
Sat Oct 11, 2014 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?
Replies: 106
Views: 10471

Re: Is semi-retirement a bad idea?

You might find this perspective interesting

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
by blueleaf
Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is anything 'cheap' out there?
Replies: 82
Views: 14760

Re: is anything 'cheap' out there?

European stocks are trading at prices lower than their historical averages. Plenty of good macroeconomic stories you could tell to justify that though.

Any non US asset is relatively cheap given the strong dollar.

Diversify and don't sweat it too much.
by blueleaf
Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market corrections and rebalancing band
Replies: 71
Views: 5732

Re: Market corrections and rebalancing band

My plan is to rebalance once a year. I'd do it more often, but I haven't seen any evidence that it's likely to be helpful.
by blueleaf
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?
Replies: 86
Views: 5935

Re: Is a fall in portfolio value "only on paper"?

Seems like a legitimate way to look at it. I suppose to depends who is asking the question and why. Here's my situation: I'm holding stock index funds that I'm not going to sell for 30 years at least. Their day-to-day price movements are mostly reflections of changes in valuation and (in the case of...
by blueleaf
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a good day to be in Stocks - 10-08-2014.........
Replies: 24
Views: 3988

Re: It's a good day to be in Stocks - 10-08-2014.........

Okay, this is odd. I was following the European and Asian indexes on Morningstar today, and Europe did HORRIBLY, while Asia did so-so (almost a wash). Yet, now that Vanguard has updated its index fund prices, Europe grew 1.35% and Pacific grew 0.89%. I'm 99% sure that Morningstar showed no European...
by blueleaf
Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are my funds negative if stock market setting new highs?
Replies: 21
Views: 4221

Re: Why are my funds negative if stock market setting new hi

International indexes have also dropped sharply over the last couple of months in dollar terms as the dollar has been gitten stronger.