Search found 607 matches

by bligh
Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here Comes the long awaited Correction
Replies: 6
Views: 777

Here Comes the long awaited Correction

I was holding onto new money to invest into the market last week. Waited patiently for a down day and just gave up today and invested it. I find it harder buying at these prices. So anyway.. tomorrow we should be seeing a huge correction.

You're welcome. :sharebeer
by bligh
Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investor Sentiment
Replies: 1
Views: 293

Re: Investor Sentiment

I agree. The problem however, has always been knowing when the correction/bear market is going to come. It could be tomorrow or 4 years from now. That is the problem. Having the market go up the way it has the last year has made me nervous too... but the problem is we don't know when the correction/...
by bligh
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 59
Views: 8572

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:19 am
For those watching the bouncing ball, your muni fund yield has likely fallen off a bit.
Yup, looks like they are all lower than when this thread started. So far it still works better than a savings account after taxes. So far.

Oh well, it was nice while it lasted. :sharebeer
by bligh
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?
Replies: 13
Views: 1390

Re: Will a bond sell-off be the catalyst for a Major Market Correction?

A sell-off in bonds could be "the Armageddon event for this year," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst for Think Markets UK, wrote in a report Tuesday. Armageddon event, huh. It’s almost as if he was trying to appeal to the emotions. The apparently annual Armageddon event. I wonder if department stor...
by bligh
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Besides Bogleheads, What Are Your Favorite Forums?
Replies: 92
Views: 9778

Re: Besides Bogleheads, What Are Your Favorite Forums?

Politicalforums: hate to argue with friends/family about politics. They get offended easily if you disagree. Thanks for posting this. I am glad to see something like this exists. I had been thinking of creating a similar forum myself to encourage civil discourse between the various polarized camps....
by bligh
Sun Jan 14, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone Gone All the Way with LastPass?
Replies: 25
Views: 1381

Re: Anyone Gone All the Way with LastPass?

Yup, everything, but using 1Password instead.
by bligh
Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Account Fraud
Replies: 20
Views: 2765

Re: Account Fraud

Setup account alerts to email and text you on any and all account activity. As a Boglehead this activity would be quite limited. I have it setup that way, and it helps me sleep soundly at night. In general it is a good idea to have something like this on all your accounts. That way you can instantly...
by bligh
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Insurance: Who do you use? (Auto/Home)
Replies: 32
Views: 1802

Re: Insurance: Who do you use? (Auto/Home)

We are with Geico. Our rates have been steadily rising every year for some reason. This year was a big jump. I am guessing it has to do with all the natural disasters we've had last year. Each time we get sticker shock at the increase, call around and get quotes from the usual suspects, State Farm, ...
by bligh
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??
Replies: 70
Views: 5495

Re: 100% VTSAX??

The 100% stock threads have returned. The dark clouds gather at the horizon. Time to go all cash. * * Kidding, just hoping to cancel out the jinx of this 100% stock thread post. I was thinking gold. :D Or perhaps tulips. VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares) is so yesterday. All ...
by bligh
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??
Replies: 70
Views: 5495

Re: 100% VTSAX??

PFInterest wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:56 pm
bikechuck wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:54 pm
What in heaven's name is VTSAX?
Google
I just searched the internet via bing and VTSAX is most definitely NOT google. It is a mutual fund at Vanguard!
by bligh
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??
Replies: 70
Views: 5495

Re: 100% VTSAX??

The 100% stock threads have returned.

The dark clouds gather at the horizon.

Time to go all cash. *



* Kidding, just hoping to cancel out the jinx of this 100% stock thread.
by bligh
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 290
Views: 26032

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

rgs92 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:56 am
Ironically, a huge run-up like this can test your ability to stay-the-course as much as a big downturn.
(At least that's my personal feeling.)
Does anyone else feel this way?
+1

Well Said, That sums it up really nicely.
by bligh
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement Math - What I am not thinking of?
Replies: 26
Views: 4103

Re: Early Retirement Math - What I am not thinking of?

Haha! With that kind of coin, and that low a withdrawal rate, we should be the ones asking YOU what we're not thinking of.

Enjoy the time with your family and your super early retirement! :sharebeer
by bligh
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8577

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

I am assuming these threads are getting flagged for moderator review because they are being perceived as bragging. Unfortunately bragging, in my opinion, is deeply a part of human nature. From the first tribal chieftain who put the skull of a tiger/bear/whatever he had killed on his head... the firs...
by bligh
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients
Replies: 53
Views: 7758

Re: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients

40. The big financial risk isn't dying early in retirement but, rather, living longer than we ever imagined. For 90% of Americans yes, for Bogleheads not so much. I seriously doubt Steve Jobs would agree with this statement. That’s the problem, the people that worked too long and died early from st...
by bligh
Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3rd update from a panicked investor
Replies: 14
Views: 3109

Re: 3rd update from a panicked investor

$3,540,000 in tax-deferred accounts (401k, regular IRA, Roth IRA, Employer Deferred Compensation Program — all at Vanguard and Fidelity): 65.5% S&P 500 3.50% Total Stock Market 2.00% Total International Stock Market 20.0% Tax-exempt MMF 9.00% Employer stock (large cap financial that I am required t...
by bligh
Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 710
Views: 184041

Re: Share your net worth progression

Hoping to hit $1m this year, a bit late at age 38 but I’m single (well, unmarried) which doesn’t help. Potential wife is kind of spendy. You know you're on Bogleheads when 38 is considered late to hit 2 comma status ;-) Lol.. I thought the same thing when I read that. That is 96th percentile based ...
by bligh
Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much are you putting in a 529?
Replies: 111
Views: 7517

Re: How much are you putting in a 529?

We are shooting for 100% of 4 years of instate college tuition into the 529 plans for each kid. The idea is to front load the contributions early so we can enjoy a long period of growth. Once the kids turn 10 I expect to completely stop contributing to the 529 plans since my state offers no income t...
by bligh
Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients
Replies: 53
Views: 7758

Re: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients

What clients should be told is that you should adjust as you go. Yeah. If you have workable plans for contingencies, that's what matters for making things work out. "Save more money" is simply one of many plans that sort out contingencies. Moving to a less expensive area, downsizing your house, cut...
by bligh
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need help with a single Ally Savings Account - Emergency/Contigenency/Oppurtunity/Car/Travel/Etc...
Replies: 12
Views: 1019

Re: Need help with a single Ally Savings Account - Emergency/Contigenency/Oppurtunity/Car/Travel/Etc...

This is precisely why I refer to my Emergency fund as "Cash reserves" instead. I keep it in a range where I wont let it fall below a certain number, or go above another. So for example: If a 6 month emergency fund were $30K for me. I would then aim to hold cash reserves between $30K and $60K. If exp...
by bligh
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?
Replies: 290
Views: 26032

Re: Anyone tired of the stock market going up?

Another day of winning! This chart is looking more and more likely to hold the pattern by the day. If I was a betting man I would say we have 7 more years of robust GDP growth. Hey, if Jack can predict doom every week, I’ll take the other side of the coin. :mrgreen: https://www.beacontechnologies.c...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7803

Re: Heading for a top?

I was convinced that the market was going to tank at the end of 2016. I felt brexit had knocked out one big pillar, and the unexpected result of the US election would knock out the other. My heart was telling me to "Maybe reduce a bit", my brain told me to stay the course. Today at the beginning of...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Heading for a top?
Replies: 103
Views: 7803

Re: Heading for a top?

I was convinced that the market was going to tank at the end of 2016. I felt brexit had knocked out one big pillar, and the unexpected result of the US election would knock out the other. My heart was telling me to "Maybe reduce a bit", my brain told me to stay the course. Today at the beginning of ...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attitude about growth in career when you are within 10 years of FI
Replies: 15
Views: 2022

Re: Attitude about growth in career when you are within 10 years of FI

This is more of a philosophical/psychological question, sometimes it is hard to express how you feel through words, so please bear with me. As I look back at my career I find in the last few years, I am less ambitious in my career, not learning to improve my skill as much I used to, not put much ef...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 31..any reason not to allocate 100% stocks in 403b?
Replies: 20
Views: 1379

Re: 31..any reason not to allocate 100% stocks in 403b?

IMO, if you are starting out and your balance is small it's not going to hurt to go 100/0 over vs going 90/10 or 80/20. Your future contributions are what are going to move the needle. If you've got a substantial balance when compared to your planned future contributions, then it is a lot riskier co...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: House Down-payment
Replies: 11
Views: 1190

Re: House Down-payment

One Alternative if you want to protect your NAV you could consider the Vanguard Municipal Money Market funds. They are giving a really good after tax yield right now.

Personally I think VWIUX is fine when saving for a purchase with an unknown timeline.
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial checkup - just found out pregnant
Replies: 22
Views: 1970

Re: Financial checkup - just found out pregnant

You guys are doing great. I love the way you have older cars, sensible house, etc relative to your income. My only advice would be for you to not stop working after you have a kid. My wife did that and 15 years later she is trying again but having to go back to school. She is getting back into the ...
by bligh
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 59
Views: 8572

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

Yeah the effort needed to go for the additional yield is minimal, so why not? I checked the Municipal MM yields today to see if they have started trending down as mentioned by a few posters and, at least for now, they have gone even higher! If the yield does fall back down, no harm no foul, it is li...
by bligh
Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 8140

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

And there's the logical problem. If bonds return 2% stocks cannot sustainably return 11%. If they did, the implied PE of stocks in 30 years time would be 1990 Japan type levels (or US 2000, probably more). Bond yields are low because Quantitative Easing has driven them down quite substantially, plu...
by bligh
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Online High yield savings account for emergency funds
Replies: 23
Views: 1771

Re: Online High yield savings account for emergency funds

I have been using Marcus for almost 2 years now (was GoldmanSachs Bank before) and have had a pretty good experience with them.

I am not a fan of their new website but I hardly have to interact with it and it more or less does the job.
by bligh
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA
Replies: 76
Views: 8140

Re: Talk me out of a 60/40 AA

I am vastly outclassed in investing knowledge by most of the people who have posted on this thread before me. But okay, I'll bite. *puts on his flame suit and body armor* Historically I think one of the reasons you see such a small difference in returns between a 60/40 and an 80/20 is that bonds use...
by bligh
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST
Replies: 142
Views: 8371

Re: REGISTRATION FOR 2018 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

I consulted my psychic astrologer. I then cross checked her answer with my tarot car picking parrot as well as asked my uncle who can read tea leaves.

It is confirmed. The S&P 500 will close at 2922.44 on the last day of 2018.
by bligh
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

Well, I bonds do pay interest from day one except that the first three months of interest is delayed until the money has been there for five years. So, you did indeed lose six months of interest. But heck, that's better than losing the entire principal. True. I didn't think of that. I had sent them...
by bligh
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 2846

Re: Compounding “theory” question

There are two returns here. 1. Market return. 2. Your portfolio return. It's assumed I'm referring to 1 and a countered with 2. Saying sequence of returns don't matter assumes we're holding the geometric mean at u. In the example given, u = 4% and not 7%. In mine u = 6.995327%. How about this, the ...
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

I bought the max under my normal account and also the max under a custom account with the same SSN. So I still need to figure out what to do about that. Hopefully it is as simple as modifying the start date to 2018 or having them cancel one of the I Bond purchases and send me back the money. Outcom...
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

Well, it is good news. So, you have money sitting in that account earning nothing for six months and that's the bad news. But the good news is that you can use that money to purchase new I bonds in January and settle the score. Congrats. :) Haha, Indeed! Fortunately with interest rates the way they...
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 2846

Re: Compounding “theory” question

You absolutely can - but the problem with most of those calculators is they don't take sequence of returns into account. Also, do you think you'll get 6-8% real? seems like it may be high. 6-8% nominal maybe? I guess my thought is that I like calculators, but none of them have made me stop contribu...
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

Another possibility. Is there an amount in the "zero percent C of I" account? No... but Oh my God. Thank you! THANK YOU! Okay, so I didn't have anything in Zero Percent C of I.. but.. at your prompting I started searching the page trying to see if there were any numbers I could spot anywhere else.....
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Re: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

HueyLD wrote:
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:42 pm
Do you have more than one TD account?
I wish. Nope, definitely only got my one account.
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding “theory” question
Replies: 30
Views: 2846

Re: Compounding “theory” question

Assuming your "Guess" at the rate of return is correct, yes you should end up with that much, except that it wont be a straight linear trend from A to B .. there will be a lot of volatility where sometimes you will feel you are way ahead of your projected goals, and other times you will feel you are...
by bligh
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?
Replies: 10
Views: 982

Treasury Direct pulls money from Savings, but no trace of transaction in Treasury Direct?

Hi All, So I was reviewing my statements for the year and noticed that back in June (yes I know, I should have caught this much earlier, I have no idea how I missed it for this long) .. Treasury Direct had pulled money from my savings account. Now I know for a fact I was trying to buy I Bonds at the...
by bligh
Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay 1099 assistant bonus?
Replies: 5
Views: 337

Re: Pay 1099 assistant bonus?

I am not a tax accountant, if the bonus is part of your business expense, you cut her the check and make her 1099 out to 21K. Not much extra work.* If the bonus is personal gift, you just give her $1K and let her 1099 be 20K. No extra work. Obviously the business expense method makes much more sense...
by bligh
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 59
Views: 8572

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

Take this as anecdotal since I'm have not been a subscriber for many years, but I seem to recall Dan Wiener mentioning that municipal yields tend to rise a lot in December only to fall back in January. He probably had some technical explanation for it that I don't recall, perhaps some artifact of a...
by bligh
Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 59
Views: 8572

Re: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

Hi, OP. Keep in mind that you're still going to lose about 1% on those yields, after adjusting for inflation. Also, if you believe in market risk premium, whatever your alternative investment was when rates were lower should have similar excess return to what they had when interest rates were lower...
by bligh
Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!
Replies: 59
Views: 8572

Muni Money Market funds starting to look good!

So the thread about the Prime Money Market fund made me take a quick look at the rates on some of the Municipal Money market funds and they are looking really good (for people in high tax brackets)! As of right now here are yields : Vanguard Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX) - 1.20% Vanguard New Y...
by bligh
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash on hand
Replies: 21
Views: 1132

Re: Cash on hand

I keep about $200 in cash at home and less than a hundred in my wallet. I have never come across a situation in my entire life where I've wished I had more cash on hand than that, and not been able to just walk up to a bank/ATM and withdraw what I needed. It may come up in the future, but I cannot p...
by bligh
Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Can we bring back the yearly net worth spreadsheet?
Replies: 9
Views: 984

Re: Can we bring back the yearly net worth spreadsheet?

If reading about how well others have done inspires you, just keep an eye on Jeff Bezos's worth and watch him march towards a net worth of $100 billion. You'll be inspired like nobodies business. :D
by bligh
Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:55 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My Christmas Present to You
Replies: 90
Views: 8214

Re: My Christmas Present to You

Merry Christmas Taylor!
by bligh
Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Operation Renter's Paradise?
Replies: 7
Views: 1032

Re: Operation Renter's Paradise?

You guys sound like the classic young family that gets tempted to throw down some roots and get a house. Maybe I missed it, but I didn't see where you mentioned how much you had saved for the downpayment? Assuming a 20% downpayment on a $600K house, you need to have $120K set aside first. In additio...
by bligh
Sun Dec 24, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not investing through your 30's
Replies: 60
Views: 5684

Re: Not investing through your 30's

I invested 12K this year, I make 60K. Not a single dime went into "I want to stop renting at some point" fund. All 12K right into Vanguard. I feel like I'm a miser. I do not make a lot but its all relative. You can make 30K a year and still be a miser. I try to hoard it. I stare at Quicken. I stare...