Search found 928 matches

by bigred77
Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Currency risk for 5.5 percent? Missing something?
Replies: 27
Views: 1801

Re: Currency risk for 5.5 percent? Missing something?

Not that i suggest you actually do this trade but you can look at the currency futures market and see what ZAR/USD forward rates are for the month you plan to exchange the currency back to USD. You can effectively "lock in" your nominal USD return by taking the existing exchange rate, acco...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help With Mom
Replies: 13
Views: 1572

Re: Help With Mom

In cases like this I would invest the money very conservatively and just take $500 a month until it ran out. Let her be comfortable for as long as she can if she's in ill health. If she outlives it, you can consider reverse mortgages, outright home sales, etc. at that time. If she runs out of assets...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Maximization of College Financial Aid
Replies: 88
Views: 4332

Re: Extreme Maximization of College Financial Aid

OP, I would personally just fund all tax advantaged accounts, fund 529s, keep my higher paying job, invest the extra in taxable accounts, and just generally go about my business. If you make 300k now, your salary could be 600k in 20 years, making $1M in college tuition perfectly affordable over 6 ye...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard Endowment Losses Tied to Value Stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 3612

Re: Harvard Endowment Losses Tied to Value Stocks

Many Harvard graduates go on to work as asset managers, portfolio managers, hedge fund managers, PE analysts, etc. Those Harvard alumni hire the next crop of Harvard graduates when they get into hiring positions. Some of those Harvard graduates get rich doing that work. Like really, really rich. Som...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years
Replies: 29
Views: 3963

Re: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years

OPSRP and Tier 3 are the same thing. I would ask and see if you are eligible to contribute to the 457. This might be helpful http://www.oregon.gov/pers/OSGP/docs/enrollment_guide.pdf Yes you would get 45% FAS after 30 years but you'd have to reach the minimum age I described in my previous post sin...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years
Replies: 29
Views: 3963

Re: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years

Why are you voluntarily throwing away several thousand dollars in taxes? You could max the 403(b) and have an extra $4k-5k in savings to throw in taxable. If you're concerned with the ability to withdraw that money before 59.5, there are strategies to do so. Those strategies work better than trying...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years
Replies: 29
Views: 3963

Re: Early 30s Looking to Retire in 15 Years

I don't know about retiring at 45 but I have some suggestions to help your overall picture be more efficient: 1.) Get the REITs out of taxable and into a tax deffered vehicle. Especially in the 28% bracket. 2.)Before investing so much in a taxable account, max out your tax advantaged accounts first....
by bigred77
Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Vehicle Should We Buy?
Replies: 20
Views: 1485

Re: Which Vehicle Should We Buy?

Any reason why you want or need such a large SUV? Have you thought about the RX 350? I think it would be a great option and if your LS sedan has met your needs I can't imagine it would be too small. I'm a fan of the new body style but you could probably get a great deal on the previous version if yo...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 21, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chicago Food/Restaurant Recommendations
Replies: 60
Views: 3210

Re: Chicago Food/Restaurant Recommendations

I just visited a couple of months ago for about a week. I preferred Gino's East to Giordanos (a lot). Did not get a chance to try Lou Malnatis. There's only so much Pizza you can eat in a week. My big regret is not going to Alinea when I had the chance to grab a reservation. I have heard nothing but...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there a point when a used car is too used to be worth buying?
Replies: 43
Views: 3153

Re: Is there a point when a used car is too used to be worth buying?

Something to consider in the same luxury range as the Escalade (although certainly no where near the same size) are 3 year old CPO BMW SUVs. These are typically 3 years old, 30kish miles, come with a warranty, and are typically 40% off or so of what they went for brand new just 3 years ago. In my ne...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 21, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I go for 0% down, no PMI, on a mortgage in SF?
Replies: 22
Views: 847

Re: Do I go for 0% down, no PMI, on a mortgage in SF?

My answer would be that a 500k studio apartment that rents for $2500 per month is almost certainly cash flow negative as a rental. It would have negative cashflow even if you had 100k to put 20% down. You are banking almost entirely on property appreciation, which is not a certainty. This would not ...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 21, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Benartzi in WSJ: "How to get more out of retirement spending"
Replies: 8
Views: 1372

Re: Benartzi in WSJ: "How to get more out of retirement spending"

Very interesting article. I especially like the idea of a "bonus month" in retirement. That would have a positive effect on me psychologically I think. Seems like retired bogleheads in general don't necessarily take monthly or bi-monthly withdrawals (like a paycheck replacement) but if one...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone accidentally tell a friend about your inheritance?
Replies: 83
Views: 8965

Re: Anyone accidentally tell a friend about your inheritance?

I doubt your friend is that jealous of you. $150k at 23 isnt an extreme amount of money. I probably had a little north of that at that age...and I didnt even inherit anything. This. You're missing 1 or 2 zeros before it's "awkward" money. $150k is 2-3 years salary for a 21 year old colleg...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HDHP vs PPO (baby in 2017) [High Deductible vs. Preferred Provider plans]
Replies: 14
Views: 846

Re: HDHP vs PPO (baby in 2017)

I imagine having a baby lends itself to hitting the OOP max in that given year (hopefully others will weigh in), therefore I would pick the HDHP because that max is lower.
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies to reduce illogical worries?
Replies: 36
Views: 2441

Re: Strategies to reduce illogical worries?

Also, just some more food for thought. Crowdfunding is when a lot of people with little chunks of money pool it together to fund some sort of business venture. The publicly traded stock market, works when a lot of people pool their money together to fund some sort of .... you get the idea. Crowdfund...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategies to reduce illogical worries?
Replies: 36
Views: 2441

Re: Strategies to reduce illogical worries?

To me, it's not worth worrying about unless I had a viable alternative to consider. Since I don't believe I do, I will continue investing the vast majority of my money in publicly traded securities. Plus, IMO, if your worried about "bad" companies moving to the public sphere and the "...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are Roth contributions the right thing to do?
Replies: 8
Views: 1135

Re: Are Roth contributions the right thing to do?

Not enough information. What is your age, income, tax bracket, plans for early retirement (or lack thereof), pensions, and/or expectations for future income levels? That said, I would personally do the contribution. I'd rather have 5k in a Roth and 15k in a traditional IRA vs 15k in Roth. I have a l...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Post-Professional School - Doing it right from the Start.
Replies: 8
Views: 1047

Re: Post-Professional School - Doing it right from the Start.

Sounds like you have a great plan. I don't think you'll gain much from a pay as you earn election. You likely make way to much. Make sure your dead set on your AA and will stick to it (I would personally have more international as a percentage of equities but your plan is just fine as it is if you l...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Bucket?
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Do Bogleheads Bucket?

I don't necessarily have "buckets", but I do a whole heck of a lot of mental accounting.

I think it helps me stay on track better.
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prepay Mortgage: Does the length of time you live in the home matter?
Replies: 29
Views: 2646

Re: Prepay Mortgage: Does the length of time you live in the home matter?

I vote for the 50/50 split after all tax advantaged accounts are maxed, taxes are paid, and expenses are accounted for. Half of the remainder goes to prepay the mortgage, half goes to a taxable brokerage account following the terms of your desired AA. If we hit a major bull market maybe pay the mort...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 20, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two questions ["Age in Bonds" vs. Risk Tolerance]
Replies: 24
Views: 1420

Re: Two questions

Age in bonds is a perfectly fine starting point (or even ending point) for your AA strategy. Many here seem to have a higher allocation to equities than this rule of thumb suggests but there is absolutely nothing wrong with following that advice. Like many others have said, anywhere from 0% - 50% of...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone accidentally tell a friend about your inheritance?
Replies: 83
Views: 8965

Re: Anyone accidentally tell a friend about your inheritance?

I doubt your friend is that jealous of you. $150k at 23 isnt an extreme amount of money. I probably had a little north of that at that age...and I didnt even inherit anything. I'm not sure if it's a blessing or a curse to have such a limited perspective. 99.5% of 23-year olds would disagree with yo...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Parent in financial mess. General and SS timing advice
Replies: 72
Views: 8271

Re: Parent in financial mess. General and SS timing advice

OP, I think it is in YOUR best interest to do everything in your power to convince her to delay SS for as long as humanly possible. It's not a question of neutrality, its a question of getting her lifelong monthly payment high enough to cover her expenses for the rest of her life. Otherwise that IRA...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Baby deals
Replies: 43
Views: 2405

Re: Baby deals

Baby Deals- - When purchasing a baby, take your time and choose wisely. - Negotiating price is common in some, but not all, cultures. - Though it is difficult, try to ascertain whether the newborn is likely to go to a flagship state university, or become a nest-egg depleting Ivy League parasite. - ...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No matching on Roth?
Replies: 60
Views: 2968

Re: No matching on Roth?

See if you can just put 4% into the traditional 401k and the remainder of your contribution into the Roth 401k. This is a common feature for most large companies (although no guarantee).
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: question on a HELOC vs refi...what about both?
Replies: 1
Views: 156

Re: question on a HELOC vs refi...what about both?

If you get the HELOC first and then refinance your primary mortgage to 90% LTV then the company holding your HELOC will not agree to subordinate the mortgage refinance (allow the primary mortgage to take the first position in line of creditors should you default) and you will probably have to close ...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet Another Home Refinance Question
Replies: 9
Views: 677

Re: Yet Another Home Refinance Question

I absolutely think this makes sense to refinance.

Cut 75 basis points off your mortgage, lower your minimum payment due. The break even point for the refi is right around 3 years and you stated you will be there longer than that.

I would do it.
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My Allocation Model: Should I Lean International?
Replies: 8
Views: 668

Re: My Allocation Model: Should I Lean International?

Berkshire is the one company I actually understand valuation wise and I'm convinced that it's selling for well below intrinsic value. I could certainly see trimming back in 10 or 20 years. It's currently in my allocation model because most of the BRKB I own I've owned for many years. Berkshire is a...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keys to a Successful Retirement
Replies: 55
Views: 6515

Re: Keys to a Successful Retirement

I think this is a great list but I too would be a little leary of a product that combines a lifetime income annuity and LTCI (albeit I have not done a lot of research in this area). I also don't know if even with this great list of recommendations that the US would see 90%+ of households maintain th...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2359

Re: market timing

Along with the OP's question - is valuation considered market timing? If I look at the price of a VTSAX share, and valuate it at lower than that, and decide not to buy as a result - is that market timing? I am NOT making a prediction that the market will move up or down in the short term, only that...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Student Loan Refi vs. Mortgage Timing
Replies: 4
Views: 259

Re: Student Loan Refi vs. Mortgage Timing

Thanks, Cybernut. While the monthly payments seem quite high - DTI will not be a challenge for us. Perhaps I should clarify my question - my concern is more around credit-worthiness changes - hard pulls on credit, large new account vs. varied older, smaller accounts that I close. Essentially - when...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing
Replies: 41
Views: 2359

Re: market timing

Along with the OP's question - is valuation considered market timing? If I look at the price of a VTSAX share, and valuate it at lower than that, and decide not to buy as a result - is that market timing? I am NOT making a prediction that the market will move up or down in the short term, only that...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will you delete the Stocks App from your iPhone?
Replies: 31
Views: 2469

Re: Will you delete the Stocks App from your iPhone?

I always got a kick out of my peers who complained the stocks app just took up precious space and they didn't know anyone who would ever use it. I use it pretty much every day to see what worldwide markets are doing, my company and our competitors stock prices are doing, and to track the oil and gas...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Figuring out a price to offer on a house...
Replies: 39
Views: 3015

Re: Figuring out a price to offer on a house...

When a house is severely misspriced like this, the best thing to do is walk away. Pretend it's not for sale or was sold to someone else. Your realtor already advised you to start negotiations at $185 per sq ft when the comps show a range in the $150s per sq ft. How is that going to help you get a fa...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 14, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio check and inheritance questions
Replies: 6
Views: 595

Re: Portfolio check and inheritance questions

If I were in the OP's shoes I would probably pay off the mortgage, double up my emergency fund to 12 months of expenses. invest the remainder in a taxable account, and max out all of my tax deffered space going forward (if possible). I would max out my 401k first and if I couldn't quite make the num...
by bigred77
Wed Sep 14, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth
Replies: 43
Views: 6098

Re: WSJ: Bank Balance better predictor of happiness than Total Wealth

I think a big part of this is money in your savings/checking account comes much closer to being "tangible". You know you can write a check or go to an ATM for near immediate access. I often find personal finance to be kind of like video games I played growing up. Its just a number on a scr...
by bigred77
Tue Sep 13, 2016 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: is it possible to be a gambler and boglehead
Replies: 47
Views: 2088

Re: is it possible to be a gambler and boglehead

I save my target percentage out my paychecks first before they ever hit my checking account (401ks and IRAs). Then I spend without a care (although I do prioritize debt paydown, so I obviously care a little).
by bigred77
Tue Sep 13, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"
Replies: 35
Views: 6251

Re: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"

Crake, do you plan to be 100% S&P 500, forever? I'm not currently 100% S&P 500 and don't plan on ever being 100% S&P 500. I only used that as an example because we have the most data on it. The OP asked a hypothetical question and I provided a hypothetical answer. When trying to guess a...
by bigred77
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: projected returns
Replies: 11
Views: 915

Re: projected returns

I have a 75/25 portfolio tilted to value and small caps. I'm roughly 50/50 US/International on the equity side. For entertainment purposes I plan on 5% real returns over the next 30 years.

You will not get a consensus here on this question.
by bigred77
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"
Replies: 35
Views: 6251

Re: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"

Probably anywhere between $400k (6% real returns) and $1M (3% real returns) depending how much certainty you need.
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

One other question I have on the charts nisiprius posted is how much did currency fluctuations affect those International returns as they are measured is USD.
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

...I will note that this is an excellent argument for international diversification in your portfolio. If US returns are worse than historical in the next 30+ years, presumably higher returns should/will be occurring outside of the US as capital seeks better returns from developing international ma...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

The reason i want to be able to confirm what I posted (and ideally I could find the "max safe withdrawal rate for portfolio survival in perpetuity based on historical observations") is because I see many iterations of the following on here: A.) I am a (26/31/42) year old who (sold a busine...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

I just care about portfolio survival (can it survive a draw down if it's balance declines in real terms over a time period) and I'm looking at historical data, not monte carlo simulations. I would prefer to use a global cap weighted index but I don't think there is data out there to use. I use the ...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

I'm not sure what "prove" means in the context of this thread... I think by limiting it to the United States equities/bonds maybe you are limiting it too much also. Why not include all developed nations, is it just because we in the US are so special? Or because it helps prove the thesis?...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

What I wanted to be able to do here is say "look at the data, if we assume that prior generations had access to the same financial products we have today, then at any point since 1870 somebody could have stopped accumulating assets, started with a 3% withdrawal, adjusted annually for inflation,...
by bigred77
Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Re: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

Thank you for the responses... You can neither prove nor disprove the possibility of a "reasonable" withdrawal rate in our usual understanding (e.g. 30 to 35 years to depletion, inflation adjusted, typical AA, etc). We can create models based on historical data or Monte Carlo simulations (...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retirement - #'s too close for comfort?
Replies: 26
Views: 3503

Re: Early retirement - #'s too close for comfort?

You can retire today with absolute certainty if your expenses are true and accurate. You can spend 40k per year for the next 11 years (440k in TIPS if you want) Then at 62 you have the option of taking 3900 per month (46.8k/yr with 40% of that indexed for inflation) plus whatever your other half a m...
by bigred77
Thu Sep 08, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?
Replies: 36
Views: 3228

Can we disprove the 3% perpetual withdrawal rate?

I have been thinking a lot about SWRs and other withdrawal strategies based on different life expectencies. I see new threads pop up about these issues seemingly every day now. I've responded to many that I think these ultra low withdrawal rates are are an over-reaction and excessively conservative....
by bigred77
Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What does a man have to do to get the new iPhone?
Replies: 26
Views: 2254

Re: What does a man have to do to get the new iPhone?

The "7" is a downgrade - no 3.5mm headphone jack. There is absolutely no reason to upgrade. Indeed the arrival of the 7 just made the 6+ even more attractive, you already have the best iphone ever made! :beer hah this just isn't true. the 7 is coming with an adapter that connects the ligh...

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