Search found 1759 matches

by bigred77
Fri Aug 18, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 76
Views: 7074

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Considering the difficulty of obtaining global real estate price levels, rent to price ratios, maintenance costs, transaction costs, etc back into the 1800s, I think it's far more likely that their numbers are off. That's my takeaway but I need to better understand their methodology. Really? We kno...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I think you meant 20 year periods where it has happened 3% of the time. It has happened 0% of the time for 30 year periods. That's holding with no leverage. Most of the safe bonds that Bogleheads talk about are designed to be held on some form of leverage to produce an adequate return. When we are ...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Bonds have beaten equities over 30 years on occasion. We all admit it's an extremely unlikely event to occur, but it's absolutely possible. I think you meant 20 year periods where it has happened 3% of the time. It has happened 0% of the time for 30 year periods. That's holding with no leverage. Mo...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Other people's perception of your finances
Replies: 73
Views: 3490

Re: Other people's perception of your finances

Welcome to the club. We are far from wealthy, but the fact that we are able to buy cars in cash, cashflow my wife's education, and save makes us fabulously wealthy in the eyes of our family members, especially on my wife's side. Her parent's lived with us for most of 2016, never contributed a penny...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth it? [demanding jobs vs time with family]
Replies: 147
Views: 7367

Re: Is it worth it? [demanding jobs vs time with family]

The majority of our friends and peer group already have kids (early 30s). We live in a major city. I know of only 1 couple out of 10+ with kids that has a stay at home spouse. That couple had family money to utilize. It's primarily financially driven. For most, it's rare to even have the choice. I a...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?
Replies: 22
Views: 1473

Re: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?

Why would employers not post salary and benefits and waste time interviewing people that may not accept in the end? Do most people interview at multiple jobs and wait for all job offers before accepting or do they just accept the first one? I have a Bachelor's from top 10 university and looking for...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I was comparing the standard deviation of the annualized returns of US equities and government T bonds over the past 200 years. As Professor Jeremy Siegel showed in his book, "Stocks for the Long Run", the standard deviation of annualized returns for equities drops from 18% for one year periods to ...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I disagree that a 100/0 portfolio represents an increased risk over a 60/40 portfolio - for the buy and hold investor with a 25 to 30 year horizon. That's pretty much demonstrably wrong if we're using anything remotely resembling the commonly accepted definition of "risk". I wouldn't necessarily sa...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I disagree that a 100/0 portfolio represents an increased risk over a 60/40 portfolio - for the buy and hold investor with a 25 to 30 year horizon. That's pretty much demonstrably wrong if we're using anything remotely resembling the commonly accepted definition of "risk". I assume in your statemen...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Well we know the efficient frontier typically curves, correct (or at least do most of us accept that)? At the extreme end, going from 100/0 to 90/10 in AA typically sees a greater jump in sharp ratio than going from 60/40 to 50/50. The more equity heavy my portfolio is the more volatility I can cut...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

Well we know the efficient frontier typically curves, correct (or at least do most of us accept that)? At the extreme end, going from 100/0 to 90/10 in AA typically sees a greater jump in sharp ratio than going from 60/40 to 50/50. The more equity heavy my portfolio is the more volatility I can cut...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

I guess maybe we just won't find common ground here but I can't reconcile your desire for liquidity (keeping an emergency fund), concerns about long term job security, and being such a staunch proponent of 100% equities and focusing on absolute returns. Given the choice between the two, if I sudden...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

In my situation, if my returns were 5.5% instead of 6.9%, over a not too long-term period of 16 years, I would need to increase my gross savings rate from 50% to 63% in order to reach the same ending ending amount. That would require a lot of additional sacrifice for us, especially since all of our...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buy + hold to avoid being priced out in the Bay Area?
Replies: 20
Views: 1756

Re: Buy + hold to avoid being priced out in the Bay Area?

You have 900k in current home equity and cash. You don't have to worry about being priced out. If you think you can make 500k there, then property prices would have to essentially triple over the next 3 years for you to be priced out. If you buy a property there like you propose it's an investment i...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Home Bias vs whatever else
Replies: 5
Views: 455

Re: Bond Home Bias vs whatever else

If I'm reading you right you are buying bonds from the Argentinian government denominated in US dollars. So if you plan to eventually spend your capital in US dollars you don't have any currency risk. However, since the promise to pay interest and repay principal at maturity is made by Argentina, yo...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6104

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

WARNING! For those of you who are staunch TSMers, if you find this article convincing and start considering delving more into international and EM, international small, international small value, emerging small and value, you are actually taking your first dip into the world of Factor investing. Su...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan for making child pay for part of college
Replies: 111
Views: 5235

Re: Plan for making child pay for part of college

As another said, there's a wide range of kids and parents, and rules that work for one set of circumstances may not work for another. A downside to this process - by the time you can figure out whether your particular strategy worked for your kids, it's too late to do much about it. Even if you hav...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing
Replies: 123
Views: 13489

Re: The Mathematics of Retirement Investing

In my situation, if my returns were 5.5% instead of 6.9%, over a not too long-term period of 16 years, I would need to increase my gross savings rate from 50% to 63% in order to reach the same ending ending amount. That would require a lot of additional sacrifice for us, especially since all of our...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?
Replies: 27
Views: 1651

Re: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?

Thanks for the excellent advice so far. It sounds like I should focus on investing in my sidelined cash in FSTVX (Total US Stock Market) in my Taxable and re-balance the IRA's to get my desired allocation of FSITX (US Bond Market) in my IRA's. So a follow-up question... between the Traditional and ...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?
Replies: 27
Views: 1651

Re: Bond Fund in Taxable... ok for me?

I would rebalance in your tax advantaged accounts. That's where you want to do your rebalancing anyway, with no tax consequences. Plus it takes about 4 clicks of the mouse and can be done in 5 min. Hardly a hassle. Then hold equities in taxable. There more tax efficient. You can tax loss harvest in ...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 76
Views: 7074

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I perused the paper and specifically focused on their methodology used in real estate returns. To be honest I couldn't quite wrap my head around it. I question the validity of their findings, but it's probably not fair to criticize if I can't even understand how they constructed their data set. My m...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Bogle's philosophy lead to alt 3-fund investment phobia, nihilism, decision paralysis, etc.
Replies: 11
Views: 1225

Re: Can Bogle's philosophy lead to alt 3-fund investment phobia, nihilism, decision paralysis, etc.

I am a big believer that a boglehead portfolio will give you the best risk-adjusted returns. Not the best or highest absolute returns, but the best risk adjusted returns. I am also a big believer that a Boglehead portfolio will not allow you to earn out sized returns on capital. You'll never get out...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cancer at 38. Going from high income to no income. Need help generating income from $5m portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 8455

Re: Cancer at 38. Going from high income to no income. Need help generating income from $5m portfolio

Thanks for all of the responses. I use YNAB religiously so I have good records of all of our expenses. The medical expenses are a big wildcard but we have good insurance through my husband's employer. We are fairly frugal but here's the breakdown and I appreciate any insights: Utilities (gas, elect...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cancer at 38. Going from high income to no income. Need help generating income from $5m portfolio
Replies: 44
Views: 8455

Re: Cancer at 38. Going from high income to no income. Need help generating income from $5m portfolio

Sorry to hear about your bad news. From a strictly financial POV, you seem like your in great shape to handle an indefinite number of years with no income: $3.9M in cash $1M in tax advantaged accounts. $1.5M in home equity Net Worth roughly $6.5M So here's my biggest concern. I don't believe your sp...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New investor/poster seeking affirmation
Replies: 14
Views: 540

Re: New investor/poster seeking affirmation

Excellent start. Very reasonable portfolio. I would add 3 things: Start your research now on how to handle a backdoor Roth IRA every year. I would try to knock out the student loans quickly. Put a taxable investing plan in place from day one. Learn about efficient asset placement (I.E. Don't hold ta...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: Retirement and College Planning
Replies: 17
Views: 1236

Re: RE: Retirement and College Planning

Besides the fact that I know several very intelligent people who had horrible life-changing experiences in real estate investing (myself included, and my PhD isn't in math, but I can do it at a 3rd grade level), what does any of this have to do with the OP? I derailed it. That's on me. I should hav...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: Retirement and College Planning
Replies: 17
Views: 1236

Re: RE: Retirement and College Planning

Your maxim is silly. It doesn't matter if "everyone" did something. It only matters if "some people" did it. Just because not everyone on earth is a good skier, doesn't mean that some people cannot become good skiers. I personally went from a negative net worth to a $8xxK net worth investing in rea...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: Retirement and College Planning
Replies: 17
Views: 1236

Re: RE: Retirement and College Planning

Why are you writing him off so quick.. You don't think he could be financially independent in 10-15 years? That timeframe is an eternity if he invests in real estate. His $250K cash will buy him enough rental properties to generate $3000-5000 in monthly income in the next 18-24 months tops. That's ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: Retirement and College Planning
Replies: 17
Views: 1236

Re: RE: Retirement and College Planning

Why are you writing him off so quick.. You don't think he could be financially independent in 10-15 years? That timeframe is an eternity if he invests in real estate. His $250K cash will buy him enough rental properties to generate $3000-5000 in monthly income in the next 18-24 months tops. That's ...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5052

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Well, I'll dispute some of what you wrote. I started down this route in 1994...I hit the 62.5 times not too long ago 2015-2106...my income has been 2x the median for a college graduate, but given my woman does not work outside the home, that makes us just average. The only reason I am still working...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: please help...am I overextended - first home
Replies: 78
Views: 5980

Re: please help...am I overextended - first home

Your ratios are fine for getting approved for the mortgage. Your monthly PITI + HOA fee is 26% of your gross. That seems fine. Are you young and expecting career growth in the near term? If so things will be tight until the 401k loan (which let me guess, was used for the down payment?) is finished a...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan for making child pay for part of college
Replies: 111
Views: 5235

Re: Plan for making child pay for part of college

I was in undergrad about a decade ago now but one thing I really didn't understand until I got out of school is how valuable internships in your field are. I worked every summer doing manual labor type jobs for 2 months for the highest wage I could find but I truly believe most students would be far...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5052

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Thank you for this. A few on this board have taken jabs at me for my 62.5 times expenses model which worked out to 1.6% withdraw rate to last 50 years. To me that is my sleep well at night position. As long as we are living the life we want I see no reason to go higher thought I would not have an i...
by bigred77
Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan for making child pay for part of college
Replies: 111
Views: 5235

Re: Plan for making child pay for part of college

One more suggestion to help them have some "skin in the game" would be to sit them down before they make the college selection decision and really explain to them the realities of debt, student loans, and how yes, you really do have to pay it back. Then once you've put a little fear into them let th...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can we slow down then retire?
Replies: 25
Views: 3950

Re: Can we slow down then retire?

I think annuities (SPIA) are an underutilized tool but I don't think they make as much sense for your situation because your so young. The mortality credits won't be favorable to you, plus interest rates are lower than the historical norms (not that I'm recommending timing the interest rate cycle bu...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3184

Re: REIT

I am confused about REITs. I currently have $20,000 in a Vanguard REIT ETF, adding $5,000 every few months for about a year. This was suggested as a way to get into real estate investing. The value was at the beginning, and still is, negative. Is there something I am missing? Why is it not gaining ...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3184

Re: REIT

I am confused about REITs. I currently have $20,000 in a Vanguard REIT ETF, adding $5,000 every few months for about a year. This was suggested as a way to get into real estate investing. The value was at the beginning, and still is, negative. Is there something I am missing? Why is it not gaining ...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5052

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Frankly, I didn't find the article all that compelling. If I hold volatility (measured by standard deviation) constant to historical values for both US equities and fixed income, but then reduce the mean nominal return for those distributions by 40% or so, yeah, I expect the numbers to look gruesome...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All in stocks: Where to go now?
Replies: 24
Views: 2205

Re: All in stocks: Where to go now?

I think a target date fund is a great choice until someone can articulate exactly why they want or need to deviate from it. Especially if the vast majority of your investments are in tax advantaged accounts.
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you manage your asset allocation like a Target Fund?
Replies: 20
Views: 1389

Re: Do you manage your asset allocation like a Target Fund?

I hold a lower percentage of equities than most TD funds applicable to my age and estimated retirement date. I will hold a higher percentage of equities in retirement than TD funds usually do (or at least I plan to). I prefer to just change my AA 1 or 2 times over my lifetime. Right now I'm 75/25 in...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent Out or Sell My Condo...
Replies: 21
Views: 1897

Re: Rent Out or Sell My Condo...

Just using very high level numbers: a 375k property that rents for 2200 a month is not a very compelling rental property in my opinion. If it's a good investment, your going to be relying on appreciation, which you should probably have a compelling argument for. Something like this area is just star...
by bigred77
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What % of income to buy a car is not excessive?
Replies: 48
Views: 3262

Re: What % of income to buy a car is not excessive?

I'm still hoping to get 3 more years or so out of our current fleet of cars but if they both happened to die today I would be looking to spend just under 40% of our gross, annual household income on 2 vehicles that I would hope to hold for 10 years (that's 40% of gross total for 2 vehicles combined)...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual stocks for fun
Replies: 24
Views: 1620

Re: Individual stocks for fun

If I wanted to speculate over the next number of years I would look at distressed oil companies as a bet on recovering commodity prices and a bet that some of them can manage their over leveraged capital structures. Pretty big fat tails on those potential return distributions in my opinion.
by bigred77
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 27
Views: 2430

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

This can be subjective, but in my opinion, if one changes their AA during a bear market because they overestimated their risk tolerance, that's a failure to stick to their long term plan. If one changes their AA after a bear market because they overestimated their risk tolerance, that's an adaptatio...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5530

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

Personally, I expose my portfolio to an equal-weight allocation of four different investment-grade assets *, using total-market index ETFs, representing a 50/50 allocation to stocks and bonds: Investment-grade domestic stocks Investment-grade international stocks, which are exposed to currency fluc...
by bigred77
Fri Aug 11, 2017 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling guilty about travel expenses
Replies: 25
Views: 3030

Re: Feeling guilty about travel expenses

Sounds like you are relatively young. I would agree with others, maybe try to up your savings rate a little bit but I would not feel guilty about traveling. It sounds like you live below your means. Your day to day living expenses don't sound outlandish if your saving 10% and spending 30% on travel....
by bigred77
Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Ownership / Investing
Replies: 18
Views: 861

Re: Home Ownership / Investing

HCOL areas are usually HCOL areas because they have experienced outsized real estate appreciation over the past couple of decades. So that's probably coloring the outlook of your social circle. Buying property you plan to live in for a long while is typically the better choice over renting a very si...
by bigred77
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 90
Views: 6006

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

less than 1%

I'd rather add it to my portfolio as quickly as possible. I'd prefer to at least put funds in CDs or a short term bond fund if I need liquidity.
by bigred77
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College and Paying for it
Replies: 61
Views: 4071

Re: College and Paying for it

I have the school of thought that an undergraduate degree is just that, an undergraduate degree that in today's society is pretty much expected someone will obtain (in the past, the expectation being everyone will get a high school degree). I am sorry but as a society we have NOT made that decision...
by bigred77
Wed Aug 09, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the deal with AMICA???
Replies: 21
Views: 1996

Re: What's the deal with AMICA???

I shop all my policies as a package (homeowners + 2 cars + umbrella) and Amica was the cheapest I could find for our situation. We came from USAA which had been good but their premiums skyrocketed for some reason causing us to shop around again. Amica has gone up 15% this year but after shopping my ...