Search found 4656 matches

by bertilak
Sun Jul 24, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?
Replies: 54
Views: 4855

Re: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?

To directly answer the question, you can't time the market because ... ⋅ You don't have enough timely information. Everything you know is old news and has already been acted on by the pros. ⋅ You don't have the skills to act on that information if you had it. The pros knew better...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: making VWINX (Wellesley inc) portfolio out of vanguard funds
Replies: 40
Views: 2534

Re: making VWINX (Wellesley inc) portfolio out of vanguard funds

Again this is based on past performance. We know it has a tax drag compared to index funds and tax efficient placement and if Wellesley's performance reduces to an average level going forward then it will underperform after tax vs index funds. Not that I'd personally bet it will underperform! The r...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a VW?
Replies: 25
Views: 1385

Re: Buying a VW?

I've had 9 VWs over the years. I'd say their reliability is about the same as other cars I have owned. They were ALL more fun to drive. I drove the early one VERY hard. VW sorta grew up with me -- from college student (Bug), young with new job (Ghia, Bus), married with children (Rabbit), retired (Pa...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?
Replies: 54
Views: 4855

Re: Remind me once again why I can't time the market?

So, how far does the market go up while you are waiting for a dip? Thinking about the answer to that should make you consider favoring "time In the market" over "timing the market." Remember that the market goes up more than it goes down. If you don't believe that it is not ratio...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: making VWINX (Wellesley inc) portfolio out of vanguard funds
Replies: 40
Views: 2534

Re: making VWINX (Wellesley inc) portfolio out of vanguard funds

i know the board likes to put bonds in IRA accounts, but this money is being held for large expenses in the future (10 years out lets say), so i don't want to put them in an IRA so that i'm in a case where the market is crashing and i'm forced to take money out of of my taxable account with stock 4...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7705

Re: Why I recommend The Three-Fund Portfolio

The point of the Taylor Larimore 3 fund portfolio (if I may be so bold as to offer an interpretation) is that you will never know until afterwards whether your participation in the market ocurred during a time of SCV outperformance. Bogleheads: No one knows until afterwards what any portfolio will ...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest
Replies: 74
Views: 7705

Re: Anti-Boglehead Claims There is a Better Way to Invest

He's arguing that investing by cap weight (purist Boglehead style) is unlikely to result in optimal performance over time (however, he does offer the disclaimer that past performance is no guarantee of future performance). If you believe that returns correlate to "risk", and that smaller ...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Early retiree: 3% SWR or 4% SWR for planning purposes?
Replies: 61
Views: 4738

Re: Early retiree: 3% SWR or 4% SWR for planning purposes?

sport wrote:
jjunk wrote:Neither of us plan (or want) to live past 80...

Most people who reach the age of 80 do not feel this way.

Or age 70, for that matter.

To answer the OP: Plan for the worst; hope for the best.
by bertilak
Sat Jul 16, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe Withdrawl Rate if you don't care about legacy
Replies: 21
Views: 2442

Re: Safe Withdrawl Rate if you don't care about legacy

My joke is that if only I knew how long I would live , then I could do proper financial planning. I'm 59, self employed therapist who won't be taking SS until 70, so plan to work until then. Aunts haven't lived past 95, but on the other hand I'm way more physically active than they were. Husband 59...
by bertilak
Sat Jul 16, 2016 5:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Practice Ethical Investing?
Replies: 47
Views: 1970

Re: Do You Practice Ethical Investing?

I do not invest in individual stocks. It is either too risky (few stocks) or too much work (many of stocks). This leaves me with index funds but I find the idea of someone else telling me what is ethical or not to be taking passive investing too far. Also, what are the ERs? Would I actually be payin...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Moving More Money into Cash as Retirement Gets Closer
Replies: 18
Views: 1858

Re: Moving More Money into Cash as Retirement Gets Closer

I guess what I trying to write is that many people exaggerate the fear and doom, so they feel they need cash. I found that there is no comfort in cash that lags the earnings in bonds and equities, so I don't bother with cash because I don't succumb to irrational fears. +1 I keep a cash balance sort...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 15, 2016 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 394

Re: Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts

I delete the sweep transaction and then just add a brought (Prime MM fund) for that amount manually. Every once in a while I try the sweep transaction in the hope that it was fixed but... YB That's pretty much what I'm doing right now but it seems to be "the long way 'round the block" so ...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to adjust asset placement
Replies: 4
Views: 321

Re: How to adjust asset placement

I think you have the right idea -- sell Sell TSM to buy TBM in IRA and/or 401(k). Do the revers in taxable. You are right to think about taxes, but you might want to run the numbers to see how big an effect it has. If you have multiple tax lots maybe some will be a loss and can offset some of the ga...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 15, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 394

Re: Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts

I had the same issue at Schwab, back when they used the same type of sweep fund. I got sick of the hassle, all the transactions in and out, so I started just treating it as cash balance. That then meant I had to delete the download transactions in and out of the fund that Quicken would import from ...
by bertilak
Fri Jul 15, 2016 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts
Replies: 5
Views: 394

Quicken and Vanguard sweep accounts

Question for Quicken users who use it to track Vanguard investment accounts ... I have carefully maintain the share balance of the sweep fund (VMMXX) but this often involves fiddling with downloaded transactions since since either Quicken or the data downloaded from VG seems to be confused in dealin...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passwords
Replies: 64
Views: 3664

Re: Passwords

I tried to install LastPass and it failed. ⋅ First: Says my email is already in use so tried "Logon Existing Account" instead of "Activate New Account" using PW I had stored in KeePass. ⋅ Second: Says PW invalid so I tried password hint. Got the hint in email....
by bertilak
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you have any retiree healthcare benefit from your employer?
Replies: 76
Views: 3660

Re: Do you have any retiree healthcare benefit from your employer?

I have a Health Reimbursement Account (HRA) funded by my ex-employer. Each January, my ex-employer dumps a sum of money into the HRA which I can use in various ways to pay for health care expenses. The balance does not carry from year to year but in my case that's academic because it gets used up ab...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 14, 2016 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Passwords
Replies: 64
Views: 3664

Re: Passwords

Has anyone used BOTH LastPass and KeePass and do you recommend one over the other? I am currently satisfied with KeePass but am always open to change, if it is for the better. I have a huge number of passwords saved in it so would be reluctant to change due to the tedium of transferring passwords. K...
by bertilak
Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: have we reached the tipping point in the active vs. passive battle
Replies: 43
Views: 4472

Re: have we reached the tipping point in the active vs. passive battle

It's like a thermostat. If "overgrazing" causes inefficiencies people will step in to take advantage of the inefficiencies until they no longer exist (OK, are no longer worth the trouble). It is a self-correcting "problem." I put "problem" in quotes because it is not re...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing in 100 words"
Replies: 7
Views: 948

Re: "Investing in 100 words"

Kaye Thomas has Mike Piper beat!. Mike could only get it down to 100 pages!
by bertilak
Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal strategies
Replies: 17
Views: 1338

Re: Withdrawal strategies

For RMDs I sell whatever has the best chances to grow, i.e. equities (TSM), and buy the exact same thing in my taxable account. This is because money in the taxable account is worth more than money in a traditional IRA since it is only taxed as cap gains, not as 100% income. Also, it is only taxed a...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken
Replies: 31
Views: 1859

Re: Quicken

azanon wrote:Sorry, what does this have to do with Quicken again.

It has to do with "The appreciation for excellence has certainly waned." People accept less-then-excellent for a variety of reasons.
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3904

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

You want your government to be ahead of the mortals and of other governments, don't you? For as long as no one else was using the Bayesian credibly, the approach itself was classified. Later it became possible to reveal the role of the Bayesian in cryptography while still protecting some specifics....
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3904

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

During WWII Alan Turing and his collaborators used the Bayesian rule to decode Enigma, but his work was classified, and long after his death it could not be used in defense of Bayesian. Government shenanigans in the world of cryptography ware and are pervasive. My assumption (meaning confident gues...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Daring to figure it out for myself .. mind numbing pension post
Replies: 17
Views: 2824

Re: Daring to figure it out for myself .. mind numbing pension post

I would look at it in the following way: ⋅ Cover as much of your non-negotiable expenses with guaranteed income as possible. That would be an annuity (e.g. pension income). ⋅ Compare the pension income to that of an annuity you can buy on the open market using the lump sum paymen...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken
Replies: 31
Views: 1859

Re: Quicken

What the future looks like in terms of the product is uncertain. I was surprised of the sale, especially considering Intuit kept the other products. Overall, it appears the personal financial software industry is not popular unfortunately (Quicken Money, etc.). The appreciation for excellence has c...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is your taxable account investing strategy?
Replies: 29
Views: 2892

Re: What is your taxable account investing strategy?

I am newbie to investing and learning more and more every passing day from this site. I am planning to investing about 10-20% of my money in taxable accounts, I have this money sitting and not working for me. My strategy is to go simple. And do what a Boglehead would do. My allocation is as followi...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?
Replies: 102
Views: 6426

Re: Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging Investing?

This paper also assumes a fixed utility curve known to the investor. AA is not always clear. DCA might also serve as a search function to help determine it. I am still thinking through the way to use DCA to optimize AA for an individual over time course but I think there is something there. If you ...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?
Replies: 41
Views: 2971

Re: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?

mrc wrote:I was trying to find this the other day ...

And quite a browser fingerprint it is: https://panopticlick.eff.org/

Hey! I like it!

eff.org is reputable, to say the least.
by bertilak
Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?
Replies: 41
Views: 2971

Re: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?

Straight from the horse's mouth ( https://bridge.vanguard.com/VGApp/brg/content/RegLogOn/SecurityLogonFAQsContent.jsp ): What if I deleted the cookies on my computer? If you deleted the cookies on your computer, we can use a secondary authentication process (known as a Flash object) to recognize yo...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 11, 2016 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 1740
Views: 388014

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Just finished Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, both the book and then the movie (2011) with Gary Oldman and Benedict Cumberbatch, among others. I thought the movie was ok, but the 6 part BBC adaptation with Alec Guinness is, for me, the best thing I have ever seen on television. I watched it in the la...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 10, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?
Replies: 41
Views: 2971

Re: How Does Vanguard "Remember" My Computer?

What I don't understand is why I can log into Vanguard using Chrome, but Vanguard blocks me if I try to log in using Microsoft Edge on the same computer. I get the message that Vanguard does not recognize my computer. This is telling you that it is the browser, not the physical device, that remembe...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?
Replies: 52
Views: 3909

Re: Why do we assume that a well diversified portfolio will inevitably increase over the long term?

Because we take it on faith that the productivity of humankind, despite huge temporary setbacks like wars and depressions, will increase in the long run. Which is what has happened throughout US history. This of course ignores the fact that "temporary" may mean a large part of one's lifet...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 10, 2016 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3904

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

My Bayesian analysis tells me someone has been reading Nate Silver. Analysis updated and probability increased after scanning through the book thread! Perhaps an analysis of why Silver gave only a 5% chance of winning to the recent winner of a national campaign may shed some light on the pitfalls of...
by bertilak
Sat Jul 09, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1708
Views: 398684

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

jebmke wrote:finished Devil in the White City

Strangely fascinating book.

I recommend it.
by bertilak
Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 10567

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

convert949 wrote:
baw703916 wrote:"I've got more money than I can ever spend" = first world problem.

A friend of mine calls it a "Problem of Privilege".

Nothing is more admirable than the fortitude with which millionaires tolerate the disadvantages of their wealth.
-- Rex Stout via Nero Wolfe
by bertilak
Thu Jul 07, 2016 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treat Social Security (and Pension) Like Bonds and Maximize Equities?
Replies: 16
Views: 1472

Re: Treat Social Security (and Pension) Like Bonds and Maximize Equities?

SS and pension are income streams, not investable assets. It is best to plan with them as they really are and not try to shoehorn them into some AA scheme. AA is an attribute of investable assets, not cash flow. (Similarly, don't treat loans as "negative bonds.") Your Investable assets hav...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 06, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 1708
Views: 398684

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Just finished Dracula. See https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2946462#p2946462 The technique of jumping between the different main character's viewpoints by way of quoting diaries (with occasional other written materials, like newspaper accounts) is clever and effective. The entire boo...
by bertilak
Wed Jul 06, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering Big move to Texas Hill Country (Round Rock/Georgetown area)
Replies: 55
Views: 2939

Re: Considering Big move to Texas Hill Country (Round Rock/Georgetown area)

Also, Round Rock/Georgetown are not really considered the Hill Country. I was just about to post something similar. RR is suburban and not "country." G-town, being further north, has lots of "Country" but not much "Hill." Many place names (or business names) in the are...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

DSL is barely broadband and was pretty horrible for anything when that was all I could get back in 2003-4. Is that all that is available to you? Doesn't your cable company offer normal internet service? DSL was something offered by the telcos back when broadband was just getting off the ground. It'...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

DSL is barely broadband and was pretty horrible for anything when that was all I could get back in 2003-4. Is that all that is available to you? Doesn't your cable company offer normal internet service? For what it's worth, I switched from 25 Mbps on cable to 6 Mbps on DSL, and the quality of Netfl...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

I'm not sure why you think it is a simple fix? Because they have already fixed it for non-prime video customers. Netflix has really, really good customer service, so if that is important to you, then stick with them. I plan to. Being new to streaming video I have also started looking at services li...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

Amazon didn't get started as Netflix and doesn't have as much incentive to make things work everywhere as Netflix does. Thus their sideline attitude about it. Do you have a some reluctance for just getting a Roku? I already have 4 remotes. There isn't an available HDMI input on my home theater rece...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

Regarding the choice of SD and HD on Amazon - it's typically available for movies that you buy or rent, but not on Prime (as far as I've seen). Under the Rent and/or Buy buttons for a given movie, is a link titled "More Purchase Options". That's where you can choose. Thanks. That takes th...
by bertilak
Tue Jul 05, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

You might want to try SD-only video from Amazon once and see how that compares. I believe there is "Available in SD" option or something similar option available for Amazon videos. As far as I can tell, that's impossible. I could find no such option. There are lots of complaints on the In...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 04, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

Have you tried viewing amazon video on a computer, or only from your Blu-Ray player? There seems to be other people out there reporting issues. Have you seen this? https://community.sony.com/t5/Blu-Ray-Netflix-Online-Video/BDP-S390-issues-with-Amazon-Prime-Instant-Video/m-p/62863#M286 AN experiment...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 04, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off dividends/interest in retiremeht
Replies: 60
Views: 6481

Re: Living off dividends/interest in retiremeht

Here is an interesting read about how splits and dividends are accounted for by technical analysts: http://stockcharts.com/docs/doku.php?id ... usted_data

Any price charts that are NOT adjusted for spits and dividends will be quite useless to those looking for patterns.
by bertilak
Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

How are you setting the video quality to be SD-only? Not sure if there is an explicit setting for both Amazon and Netflix to stream only SD. I think it detects the bandwidth and dynamically adapts the video quality. Is there any notification that stream is SD quality? My Netflix plan is described a...
by bertilak
Mon Jul 04, 2016 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

You might want to do a brute check for quality of video streaming by going to this site https://www.google.com/get/videoqualityreport You might want to do another quick test - try streaming from Amazon on your computer rather than Sony Blu-Ray and see if the experience is different. And check the d...
by bertilak
Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming Video
Replies: 31
Views: 1893

Re: Streaming Video

What is the download speed from your internet provider? You need at least 10 Mbps (megabits per second) to get a good picture. More if you have multiple computers actively using the internet while your are streaming. I feel the embedded streaming capabilities put into TVs and DVD players are junk. ...

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