Search found 6385 matches

by baw703916
Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"
Replies: 7
Views: 950

Re: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"

One of my pet peeves about how these examples are constructed in most Roth vs. traditional articles: Now let's take a look at a similar example, this time using Roth contributions. Thirty-five-year-old Michael, like Cathy, is in the 25% tax bracket. He too has $5,000 to invest per year, but he has o...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5198

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

nisiprius wrote:Let's try to remember to check in a year and see how these three funds actually did.


I'm guessing one will do well, one will do poorly, and one will do middling. I have no idea which ones those will be. :)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5198

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article is so bad, including plainly factually incorrect information that I am going to try and find the time to write a blog on it, in the investment porn category is what this is. Larry +100!!! He lost me at the subtitle for the article: "Near-term market conditions don't look good ...&...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

I tilt to small and value, but ignore momentum--for one thing my portfolio is mostly in taxable or the TSP, and MOM is inherently a not very tax-efficient strategy due to the turnover in which assets have positive momentum. But I don't see why it can't be successfully implemented in the real world,...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle" -- Momentum

Bogleheads: Momentum has been described as one of the best performing "factors?" One of the first momentum factor funds was FUNDX Upgrader Fund with a 2001 inception. The company describes its strategy this way: Upgrading is the investment approach we developed years ago and have been app...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 153
Views: 12262

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

livesoft wrote:^Clearly, everyone should join the military and not get drummed out by doing well in it.


Good idea. Ideally everyone should make Captain/Colonel.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 153
Views: 12262

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

I would ilke to see a report from millennials on their parents who are retired or retiring now. I'd like to see millennials ask their parents how much they saved and invested every year so that they could reach this stage of their lives "retired" or "retiring now." I will bet th...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

baw To me the conclusion is simple and obvious, since no one can know which factor(s) will do well in the future the prudent strategy is clearly to diversify across the factors that meet the criteria of being persistent, pervasive, robust, implementable and have intuitive reasons to believe you are...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

"The fickle factors of finance" has a nice ring to it. :) More seriously, looking at recent decades (ending in 0), at least one of the three "original" F-F risk factors (beta, size, value) has been rewarded in each decade, and at least one has not been rewarded. Obviously which o...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5078

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

If you eliminate the first week, there's really no difference. Maybe something to do with the start of the fund and appropriating the large influx of cash from investors moving into the fund? Either way, it's likely there will be no significant difference going forward. Even if you eliminate the fi...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5078

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

Comparing Fidelity Total International Index Fund - Premium Class (FTIPX) Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) at morningstar.com, since it's inception 7 months ago FTIPX trails VTIAX by 1.6%!!!!! That's terrible!! I really don't trust any of these companies other th...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3276

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

However, broad market index funds are not fickle. They have done exactly what I have expected them to do, year after year, rain or shine. (OK, in 2002 Vanguard Total Bond made 8.82% while the index made 10.75%, and in Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index made 5.39% while the index made 6.97%... that so...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5078

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

I believe the bid/ask spread issue relates to the shares the fund buys and sells in the underlying companies it owns. Every share in a mutual fund's holdings must be bought on the open market. Yes, but this is likely to make things more problematic for a bigger fund--there will be more market impact.
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5078

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

I'm a little confused about Taylor's original post. Since all the Fidelity funds have only traditional "open end" share classes and not ETF shares, how is the bid-ask spread an issue? Aside: the ETF share class is probably the major reason why the Vanguard index funds tend not to distribut...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 100
Views: 13100

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

While I never got to know Lee personally, I have always greatly enjoyed his posts. I always found them thoughtful, informative, and invariably worth reading, even when I didn't completely agree with him. Thank you, "Old Meph," for sharing your wisdom and insights, and may your posts contin...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing out SIMPLE IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 438

Re: Maxing out SIMPLE IRA

My understanding is that for a SIMPLE IRA it works somewhat different than 401(k)s, TSP, etc. For a 401(k), the employer match is calculated for each pay period, so if you max it out after six months you get no employer match for the second half of the year. :( For a SIMPLE IRA, the match seems to b...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset location of US & Internatl Equity?
Replies: 4
Views: 327

Re: Asset location of US & Internatl Equity?

As for the wash sale issue, it's actually worse than a normal wash sale--if you sell at a loss in a taxable account and buy in a retirement account, then the loss gets permanently erased, rather than just deferred. :( I've tended to deliberately hold different funds in taxable and retirement account...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 8.5% for 2016. Can I do better????
Replies: 27
Views: 4577

Re: 8.5% for 2016. Can I do better????

A lot of what your return is in a particular year just depends on how each asset class happens to perform. For example, anybody who happened to have a lot of international equities looked like a dunce in 2016, anybody who had all their equities in the U.S. looked like a genius. In 2017 it could be t...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1041

Re: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds

Looking at Intermediate Tax-exempt vs. Total Bond Market, IT TE has lagged in performance over the last 12 months, but that was due to prices not going up as much in the first half of 2016, not due to a bigger drop in the second half of the year. IT TE has 8.5 years average maturity, 5.1 years avera...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Index Returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2798

Re: Vanguard International Index Returns

I'm quite sure that Mr. Bogle's decision not to invest in international equities has nothing at all to do with their performance over the last 5 or 10 years. What he has said is that he doesn't feel that holding international equities is necessary for an adequately-diversified portfolio, and that th...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 5786

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

The more I stare at the chart, the less meaningful it seems. What is meant by "drawdown"? I normally take the term to mean that you start out with a portfolio of a certain size, and need to withdraw a fixed amount of money at regular intervals. So if returns are unfavorable, the portfolio ...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slicing Total Stock Market Index Fund Hurts Tax-Efficiency
Replies: 11
Views: 1088

Re: Slicing Total Stock Market Index Fund Hurts Tax-Efficiency

I'm a little confused as to what is being discussed in this thread. The title implies it's tax efficiency in the literal sense--if I hold Large value, large growth, etc. instead of TSM in a taxable portfolio, I will have larger distributions on which to pay taxes each year for the same underlying ho...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many $ to self fund long term care?
Replies: 73
Views: 4942

Re: How many $ to self fund long term care?

But if you have a 40% chance of entering a nursing home, and the cost of your stay is $X, you need to have a plan to come up with $X in case you enter a nursing home, not 40% of X. But if you have a 20% chance of entering a nursing home, and the cost of your stay is $X, you need to have a plan to c...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many $ to self fund long term care?
Replies: 73
Views: 4942

Re: How many $ to self fund long term care?

... 1) It only includes people that actually go into a nursing home and many people never go into one . ... But you see, we're not trying to fund the average of all people. What happens to many is not necessarily what happens to us personally. I, individually , could be among the ones who does go i...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Academic Research Doesn't Always Make Grade in Real World"
Replies: 47
Views: 3737

Re: "Academic Research Doesn't Always Make Grade in Real World"

If you assume all investment returns are symmetric, and ignore skew, you fail to account for the real-world behavior. You also can conclude, falsely, that investors who are rationally avoiding negatively skewed portfolios are making behavioral errors. They would be errors if no on cared about negat...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max It Out Tomorrow [your IRA]
Replies: 116
Views: 10029

Re: Max It Out Tomorrow

I thought maybe they were funding the IRA with money invested in a taxable account Yes, they should have been fully invested already with that money in a taxable account, so they should have sold a last week to have the cash available to contribute to the IRA. Or, depending on the size of the taxab...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max It Out Tomorrow [your IRA]
Replies: 116
Views: 10029

Re: Max It Out Tomorrow

I appreciate Graham's larger point of continuing to invest through severe downturns.

But...how did one invest in the S&P 500 in 1929??? :beer
by baw703916
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1867

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

whodidntante wrote:It's possible the fund had a large outflow and was forced to sell appreciated holdings to meet redemptions.


Another reason to love ETFs (and even the ETF haters on this board should appreciate Vanguard's ETF share class, as it helps Vanguard avoid this problem)
by baw703916
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1867

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

100% of my 403(b) is invested in SVSPX. I guess I shouldn't look at my account. I'll peek at it when I leave my current place of employment. :beer It shouldn't be an issue in a retirement account, since the distribution doesn't create any taxes--you are only taxed upon withdrawal. Assuming the fund...
by baw703916
Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1867

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

It appears that the distribution was capital gains, not dividends. Which makes sense, because the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is nowhere near that high. The fund seems to distribute dividends quarterly, and capital gains annually: http://beta.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/SVSPX/quote.html Fortuna...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Can Be More Dangerous Than Stocks??
Replies: 31
Views: 3698

Re: Bonds Can Be More Dangerous Than Stocks??

A question about bonds.Say someone has 1 million in total bond and retires needing income from that of 2000 a month.High inflation is rampant and the fund's nav is sinking like a rock.If the retiree is just taking the interest needed monthly over a long period,does it matter if the monthly interest...
by baw703916
Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think Slice and Dice makes it harder to stay the course?
Replies: 40
Views: 2272

Re: Do you think Slice and Dice makes it harder to stay the course?

If you don't own something that's underperforming, you probably aren't adequately diversified.
by baw703916
Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physician went out of network. Now I have a bill to pay. What to do
Replies: 94
Views: 6213

Re: Physician went out of network. Now I have a bill to pay. What to do

So what, in the opinion of the insurance company, constitutes a definitive, legally binding way of verifying being in network? The website isn't definitive The receptionist at the doctor's office isn't definitive Calling the insurance company? Is the person answering the phone necessarily going to h...
by baw703916
Wed Dec 07, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: article of interest regarding Vanguard as a monopoly
Replies: 27
Views: 2644

Re: article of interest regarding Vanguard as a monopoly

One huge, and probably insurmountable problem: The Federal government equivalent of a 401k, the TSP, consists of index funds (S&P 500, completion index, EAFE, aggregate bond) which are managed by...Blackrock. So if you bring a lawsuit, how are you going to find a federal judge or regulator who d...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 26, 2016 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cycle and return to historical average.
Replies: 23
Views: 1756

Re: Market cycle and return to historical average.

pkcrafter wrote:You can get 12% if you listen to Dave Ramsey. :happy

Paul


Only if you buy load funds! :twisted:
by baw703916
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59049

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Taylor Larimore wrote:Taylor,

I thought you did own the Vanguard short-term TIPS fund. Or is that no longer true?

I used-up my TIPS fund when taking my RMD last year (about 11% of my IRA).

Best wishes.
Taylor


OK, thanks for the clarification.

Best wishes,
Brad
by baw703916
Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 471
Views: 59049

Re: Free lunch?

It seems to me that trying to invest for "winners" in the bond market is kind of a dumb game for most of us . stultz: Truer words were never spoken. I remember visiting the bond room at Shearson-Lehman in New York City many years ago. I was stunned. It was a huge room with at least 50 hig...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 22, 2016 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Is a Top Pick."
Replies: 23
Views: 3567

Re: "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Is a Top Pick."

But it's not like TIPS have uniquely low yields (remember for TIPS the quoted yield is the real return, while for other bonds it's the real return + inflation). TIPS have low yields because bonds in general have low yields. One can go yield chasing, but that necessarily involves taking on risks. So ...
by baw703916
Tue Nov 22, 2016 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Is a Top Pick."
Replies: 23
Views: 3567

Re: "Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Is a Top Pick."

... I honestly have no idea how a retiree survives with this fund or makes it work. There has been close to ZERO in terms of cash flows from dividends! Hard to pay the bills with that (i.e. "Income Risks") as Jack Bogle has said. Sorry for the snark, but you do realize this is equivalent ...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 19, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?
Replies: 88
Views: 13175

Re: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?

I have a muni bond portfolio, so it is an opportunity to tax loss harvest, but only on those which are long-term holdings and have losses. Why wouldn't you (and/or shouldn't you) TLH short term losses? 1) Losses usually aren't large enough to overcome the frictional transaction losses 2) There is a...
by baw703916
Sat Nov 19, 2016 3:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 5 reasons the rich are better investors than average Joe
Replies: 31
Views: 7467

Re: 5 reasons the rich are better investors than average Joe

Good investors probably get richer than the average Joe.

Same correlation, but opposite causality.
by baw703916
Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?
Replies: 88
Views: 13175

Re: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?

I may TLH--was just thinking of that when I noticed this thread. To help with the acronym: Tax loss harvesting Thanks for posting that link, LG. I had not known that the restriction on tax losses and tax-exempt interest doesn't apply to funds which accrue interest daily (e.g. Vanguard's). Now I do!
by baw703916
Thu Nov 17, 2016 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?
Replies: 88
Views: 13175

Re: Muni bonds are getting killed. Are you bailing out?

I may TLH--was just thinking of that when I noticed this thread.
by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 12531

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

58% is because I like 29% in US stocks and 29% in foreign stocks because those are prime numbers. 29 + 29 = 58. It should be 42% stocks because 21 is a Fibonacci number, and they mean something or other about market moves. The preceeding is not serious advice, BTW. The serious advice: I'd add that ...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008
Replies: 76
Views: 5856

Re: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008

...If I choose to believe in factor weighting and the extra returns don't show up (as in this example), I still get the market return.... That may be true in this case, but are you claiming it's always true? If factors represent risk factors, as, for example, Fama and French claim, increasing expos...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008
Replies: 76
Views: 5856

Re: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008

Pascal's wager (factor-based investment version): If I choose not to believe in factor weighting and accept the market return, I will get the market return. If I choose to believe in factor weighting and the extra returns don't show up (as in this example), I still get the market return. If they do ...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building A Portfolio With ETF's?
Replies: 6
Views: 819

Re: Building A Portfolio With ETF's?

I think the poster misread "actual" as "active"--so did I the first time. Technically, the traditional mutual fund structure (e.g. VTSAX) is an "open end" mutual fund. Vanguard lets you convert from open end to ETF, but not vice versa. So you would have to sell and repu...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2564

Re: Moving to Seattle from DC

I moved to Seattle from Northern Virginia last year. I agree with the various posters who say that you want to minimize your commute distance. I ended up moving to the northern part of Seattle, but as my work location and other considerations are different that yours, my choice of neighborhood isn't...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Worse Than Marxism
Replies: 2
Views: 977

Re: Passive Investing Worse Than Marxism

To each according to his expense ratio. :D
by baw703916
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1855

Re: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]

Speaking of Edward Jones, you guys will enjoy this column from Bloomberg. What do you do when forced to adopt a fiduciary standard? Raise fees! Edward Jones really likes those fees Edward Jones said it will stop offering its clients mutual funds (and ETFs) for commission-based retirement accounts. I...

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