Search found 6323 matches

by baw703916
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking
Replies: 28
Views: 1745

Re: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking

Ancient rulers did all tend to suffer (or sometimes benefit) from home country bias--kind of like investing a lot of your assets in your employer's business. Though that was perhaps unavoidable...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 8761

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Is everyone going to have a happy retirement in the Lake Wobegon Retirement Community, where all the nest eggs are above average?
by baw703916
Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 493

Re: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity

FTIPX, elsewhere on this post, doesn't show up for me through Fido, and I see all of $12 million in assets on M* (?!). Fidelity Total International Index fund only had its inception date last month (on 6/7/16). I heard about it on this board, not through Fidelity--thanks Bogleheads! Maybe it's not ...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 493

Re: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity

saltycaper wrote:Take a look at Fidelity Total International Index Fund Premium Class (FTIPX). ER 0.11%.


I just moved the holdings in my Fidelity account to FTIPX on Friday (from the global ex-US index, which doesn't include small caps).
by baw703916
Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Bonds Aren't as Wretched as They Seem
Replies: 13
Views: 2028

Re: Jason Zweig: Bonds Aren't as Wretched as They Seem

If he's going to discuss real yields, why doesn't he mention TIPS? That's the only case where a real yield is defined.

Currently, it's 0.05% for a 10 year TIPS.
by baw703916
Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3614

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

itstoomuch wrote:Tao of Clams
Experienced Clamers get more clams, of better quality and size, quicker, and with less work.
Less experienced Clamers get fewer clams of less quality and size, taking more time, and more work.

YMMV


Can you prove that experienced clam pickers exist? Maybe they're just lucky?
by baw703916
Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3988

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

We're talking past each other. The probability of a 22% drop before 2050 could be 50%--I don't have any way of knowing. All I'm saying is that the occurrence of the 1987 crash is inconsistent with returns following a normal distribution (no informed person ever claimed they had to follow a normal di...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3988

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Are you saying that the probability of the 1987 22% market drop was calculated to be one in 1 x 10*88 ? No, it's saying that under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns that's what it is. If that really is the probability, you wouldn't expect to see that happen ever in the age of the u...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3614

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I have to say a lot of the posts seem to be misinterpreting the question posed, which is: Is it possible to reliably underperform the market, before costs , on a risk-adjusted basis, except by luck or by taking idiosyncratic risk? Having lots of costs and not diversifying will certainly do it, but ...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?
Replies: 3
Views: 617

Re: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?

ETF creation/redemption event happen when an authorized participant trades a certain number of shares of the ETF (a creation unit) for the underlying securities. To create new ETF shares, the AP buys the securities, trades them to the sponsor (e.g. Vanguard) for the ETF shares, then sells the ETF sh...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3614

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I have to say a lot of the posts seem to be misinterpreting the question posed, which is: Is it possible to reliably underperform the market, before costs, on a risk-adjusted basis, except by luck or by taking idiosyncratic risk? Having lots of costs and not diversifying will certainly do it, but th...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?
Replies: 3
Views: 617

Re: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?

The ETF share class has made it possible for index funds with highish turnover (within reason) to minimize capital gains distributions. It's a little bit in the weeds, but the fund earmarks shares with low cost basis for ETF redemptions (not a taxable event--note individuals rarely redeem ETF shares...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3988

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

You are saying that the odds of a 22% market drop in one day are one in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 ? If the assumption that returns follow a normal distribution is valid, then yes, that is the probability. It's not even something you h...
by baw703916
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 3988

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Bayesian algorithms are concerned with conditional probabilities, meaning that that you have some amount of information about what is happening, but that information is incomplete. You're trying to adjust the odds of something whose state you don't know, based on something you do know that is somewh...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 10613

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

"I've got more money than I can ever spend" = first world problem.

Not to dismiss the article though...having some money left just in case seems prudent. As does leaving it to family members/worthy causes in case you don't need it all.
by baw703916
Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which city should I move to?
Replies: 40
Views: 3172

Re: Which city should I move to?

I moved to Seattle last year. One thing that I hadn't realized is the summer isn't that rainy (most of the rain is in the winter). So really, summers are quite pleasant in either Chicago or Seattle. I think though, you should think more about quality of life issues. What would you be doing in either...
by baw703916
Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please show me why three fund is better than this...
Replies: 44
Views: 3055

Re: Please show me why three fund is better than this...

One significant vulnerability of this portfolio is in a 1970s "stagflation" type scenario, in which there's a bear market in equities at the same time that inflation is causing a significantly negative real return in bonds. Granted, inflation seems hard to even contemplate at present, but....
by baw703916
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 11476

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

I learned what the ticker symbol for the ishares UK index ETF is (EWU). Even if you have no intention of buying it, it's kind of a useful thing to look at since it combines the FTSE 100 move (denominated in GBP) and the GBP/USD exchange rate during US market hours. I'll also observe that UK investor...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switching to Fidelity's new Total International Index (includes small cap!)
Replies: 33
Views: 3328

Re: Switching to Fidelity's new Total International Index (includes small cap!)

Thank you for starting this thread!

I have a retirement account with Fidelity currently invested in the low-minimum version of global ex-US index. In a few months I should be above the $10K minimum for the premium shares. I think once that happens I'll move it into FTIPX instead of FSGDX.
by baw703916
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?
Replies: 108
Views: 12253

Re: Do You See it Now?

With all due respect, I don't see why it's hard to stay the course. Today I sold some bonds (up over 1% today) and bought some equities (way down). I didn't listen to any market prognosticators, because frankly, they never say anything worth listening to. :)
by baw703916
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Shouldn't Do International Stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 7626

Re: Why You Shouldn't Do International Stocks?

What do the greatest investors of the next 40 years say about international investing? :?:
by baw703916
Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Replies: 162
Views: 16241

Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario

My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.

I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice. :)
by baw703916
Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IWC Watch, any thoughts? [Wristwatch brand]
Replies: 97
Views: 5366

Re: IWC Watch, any thoughts?

Petrocelli wrote:Do you really think people who spend $25,000 on a watch are worried whether their watch keeps time more accurately than a Casio?


If I spend $25K on a watch, I expect it to be an atomic clock that fits on my wrist.

For the record, I have way more than $25K invested in IWC (the mutual fund). :)
by baw703916
Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the C fund too risky?
Replies: 20
Views: 1768

Re: Is the C fund too risky?

So how do those numbers relate to the annuity interest rate on this page?

https://www.tsp.gov/whatsnew/Content/cu ... Rates.html
by baw703916
Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the C fund too risky?
Replies: 20
Views: 1768

Re: Is the C fund too risky?

You also have the option of converting your TSP to an annuity, with inflation-adjusted payments; this ensures that you will not outlive the money, but also removes any leftovers from your estate. However, the current TSP annuity rate is 1.8%, which works out to $1875/month, quite a bit less than th...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intl. Portion of Three-fund Portfolio using FIDO funds
Replies: 9
Views: 648

Re: Intl. Portion of Three-fund Portfolio using FIDO funds

I'm not sure why you say it's "draggy". It tracks very well with both its benchmark (MSCI all-world ex-US index) and Vanguard's Total international fund. The FSIVX fund doesn't include Emerging Market stocks. That happened to make it do better in the last year, as livesoft points out. But ...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 09, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 118
Views: 6367

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

earlgrey wrote:Somewhere between 0.03% - 0.05% (can't input TSP funds into the Morningstar x-ray tool to get the exact ER)


Looks like 2.9 basis points for all the TSP funds in 2015

https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... Ratio.html
by baw703916
Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard's Active Funds: A Deeper Look at the Performance" (IFA.com/Tom Allen and Mark Hebner,June 7, 2016)
Replies: 10
Views: 1362

Re: "Vanguard's Active Funds: A Deeper Look at the Performance" (IFA.com/Tom Allen and Mark Hebner,June 7, 2016)

If the null hypothesis is true, then there should also be 1-2 Vanguard active funds with "statistically significant" underperformance. So are there?

BTW, are they considering the "active" Vanguard bond funds? I still want to know if "TIPS picking" is a thing!
by baw703916
Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment
Replies: 6
Views: 1135

Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment

Not quite nine years ago, I decided to invest in the Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund. I later added a much smaller investment in the High Yield Tax Exempt fund. Except for a few months last year when I was buying a house in conjunction with a move, I've held those assets ever since. Vanguard...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"
Replies: 18
Views: 2154

Re: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"

If someone is selling an ETF that invests in something worth owning (not junk bonds) for a 20% discount to an otherwise reasonable price, I say buy it! For that situation to occur, all the usual proprietary traders and other market makers must have considered that opportunity, and declined it. That...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"
Replies: 18
Views: 2154

Re: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"

For bonds, the valuation isn't completely arbitrary, because they have a defined par value and interest rate. So it's not too hard to adjust for credit risk and duration and figure out what a reasonable price should be (absent a market panic or liquidity crisis). Moral: don't ever find yourself in n...
by baw703916
Wed May 25, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 59
Views: 5605

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

oldzey wrote:I believe in charts.

Image


I'm going to put 100% of my portfolio into trends. Same return as stocks, but none of the volatility!! :moneybag
by baw703916
Wed May 18, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing a move from one house to another
Replies: 29
Views: 1975

Re: Financing a move from one house to another

I moved last year, and owned my previous home outright. What I discovered when applying for a loan was 1) an experience similar to what was mentioned earlier in the thread. Banks seem to be obsessed with monthly cash flow, and completely ignore how much one has in non-retirement investments compared...
by baw703916
Mon May 16, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3289

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Also, neither the G Fund nor TIPS do exactly what an investor concerned about inflation risk would find ideal, which is to guarantee an increase in value, measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, of one's investment each and every day. If you own an individual TIPS and hold it to maturity, you know e...
by baw703916
Mon May 16, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3289

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Let me point out that in backtesting TIPS and the G Fund to see what would have happened in the 1970s, for TIPS the data is hypothetical but for the G Fund it isn't. The G Fund didn't exist before 1987. But by law, the interest rate on the G Fund is set to the weighted market yield of all outstandin...
by baw703916
Sun May 15, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3289

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Dr. Bernstein, Thanks for your thoughts about the G Fund and REITs. I admit I was a little surprised regarding the G Fund (I had thought it wasn't mentioned just because it was too specialized), so I decided to calculate and post some numbers. The G Fund interest rate uses the same formula as the So...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can Anything Stop Vanguard?"
Replies: 50
Views: 7712

Re: "CAN ANYTHING STOP VANGUARD?"

Not specific to Vanguard by any means, but complacency is always a big risk to any company or organization that is having lots of success. Hopefully Vanguard will avoid this pitfall.
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Accounts to TSP
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: Taxable Accounts to TSP

Baw thanks for the response! Sorry I misspoke I understand you can't transfer into TSP my plan was as you said sell shares in my taxable account and contribute my salary into TSP. I was under the assumption that in the 15% tax bracket you do not pay capital gains tax. is this incorrect? Thanks agai...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Accounts to TSP
Replies: 5
Views: 454

Re: Taxable Accounts to TSP

Given that you're in the 15% bracket now but won't be again in the foreseeable future, I think it does make sense to max out the Roth TSP this year. You can't actually transfer taxable investments into the TSP (you can transfer money from retirement accounts). But what you can do is to take some mon...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3289

Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

I had a discussion with a fellow Boglehead about Bernstein's Deep Risk, in particular this interview/article from Forbes a few years ago: http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2013/09/03/essential-reading-deep-risk-by-william-bernstein-plus-q-a-with-author/#770719055e1d It talks about hedging infla...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So, are Bogleheads Bourbon or Scotch drinkers?
Replies: 115
Views: 7582

Re: So, are Bogleheads Bourbon or Scotch drinkers?

If I were interested in this asset class, I would probably track the All-World Whiskey Index. :beer
by baw703916
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 154
Views: 12163

Re: Is Vanguard phone support always this bad?

I've found that sending Vanguard a secure e-mail seems to be much more productive in achieving a resolution than calling on the phone. This may be because they aren't obligated to answer in real time and can pass the question along to someone who can really answer it. I've occasionally gotten statem...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for confirmation on tax efficiency regarding TSP
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: Looking for confirmation on tax efficiency regarding TSP

One thing to remember: if you are deployed at some point and get tax free pay, you want to contribute to the Roth TSP with that income.
by baw703916
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?
Replies: 24
Views: 1173

Re: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?

Still, I've never been able to figure out for the life of me why Vanguard doesn't just make it an index fund. It's not like "TIPS picking" is an actual thing, even to the extent of stock picking. :?:
by baw703916
Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt really a high yield fund?
Replies: 12
Views: 1202

Re: Is Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt really a high yield fund?

What may be a more significant issue to some investors is that HY TE does have some AMT exposure (it can't be more than 20% per SEC policy to call itself a "tax exempt" fund). It's high yield in the literal sense. The higher yield is obtained by a combination of some AMT exposure, a longer...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Achilles Heel?
Replies: 47
Views: 5862

Re: Total Bond Achilles Heel?

This is the same argument that's made about all kinds of indexing. It's no more valid or invalid for bonds than it is for stocks. In the case of stocks you frequently hear that the market puts the most money in the companies that are biggest and have had the most growth (and are presumed to be crui...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another question on Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 2211

Re: Yet another question on Roth IRA

Thanks for the replies. My 401k is 40% total market and 60% total bond. Any suggestions for my new Roth Ira ? 50% VTSMX and 50% VGTSX? That sounds good to me. All else being equal, it may be desirable to put assets with the highest expected return (typically equities) into the Roth in the hope that...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Form 8606 Basis: Will this be an issue next year?
Replies: 6
Views: 821

Re: Form 8606 Basis: Will this be an issue next year?

If you do the same thing next year (contribute $5500 as a nondeductible contribution to a Tradition IRA and the convert some time later), then after you make the contribution your basis will be $5528. If say the $5500 goes up in value to $5600 by the time you convert, then you will claim $72 ($5600-...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500: 1964-2016 With & Without FOMC Days
Replies: 15
Views: 2003

Re: S&P 500: 1964-2016 With & Without FOMC Days

nisiprius wrote: I'm not sure what meaning that has, either.

"Don't blame us if what we say doesn't work." :)

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