Search found 6292 matches

by baw703916
Wed May 25, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we believe in the market?
Replies: 59
Views: 5128

Re: Why do we believe in the market?

oldzey wrote:I believe in charts.

Image


I'm going to put 100% of my portfolio into trends. Same return as stocks, but none of the volatility!! :moneybag
by baw703916
Wed May 18, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing a move from one house to another
Replies: 29
Views: 1806

Re: Financing a move from one house to another

I moved last year, and owned my previous home outright. What I discovered when applying for a loan was 1) an experience similar to what was mentioned earlier in the thread. Banks seem to be obsessed with monthly cash flow, and completely ignore how much one has in non-retirement investments compared...
by baw703916
Mon May 16, 2016 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3016

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Also, neither the G Fund nor TIPS do exactly what an investor concerned about inflation risk would find ideal, which is to guarantee an increase in value, measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, of one's investment each and every day. If you own an individual TIPS and hold it to maturity, you know e...
by baw703916
Mon May 16, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3016

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Let me point out that in backtesting TIPS and the G Fund to see what would have happened in the 1970s, for TIPS the data is hypothetical but for the G Fund it isn't. The G Fund didn't exist before 1987. But by law, the interest rate on the G Fund is set to the weighted market yield of all outstandin...
by baw703916
Sun May 15, 2016 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3016

Re: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

Dr. Bernstein, Thanks for your thoughts about the G Fund and REITs. I admit I was a little surprised regarding the G Fund (I had thought it wasn't mentioned just because it was too specialized), so I decided to calculate and post some numbers. The G Fund interest rate uses the same formula as the So...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can Anything Stop Vanguard?"
Replies: 50
Views: 7306

Re: "CAN ANYTHING STOP VANGUARD?"

Not specific to Vanguard by any means, but complacency is always a big risk to any company or organization that is having lots of success. Hopefully Vanguard will avoid this pitfall.
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Accounts to TSP
Replies: 5
Views: 406

Re: Taxable Accounts to TSP

Baw thanks for the response! Sorry I misspoke I understand you can't transfer into TSP my plan was as you said sell shares in my taxable account and contribute my salary into TSP. I was under the assumption that in the 15% tax bracket you do not pay capital gains tax. is this incorrect? Thanks agai...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable Accounts to TSP
Replies: 5
Views: 406

Re: Taxable Accounts to TSP

Given that you're in the 15% bracket now but won't be again in the foreseeable future, I think it does make sense to max out the Roth TSP this year. You can't actually transfer taxable investments into the TSP (you can transfer money from retirement accounts). But what you can do is to take some mon...
by baw703916
Sat May 14, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?
Replies: 28
Views: 3016

Deep Risk (Bernstein): Any academic research on G Fund vs. TIPS as inflation hedge?

I had a discussion with a fellow Boglehead about Bernstein's Deep Risk, in particular this interview/article from Forbes a few years ago: http://www.forbes.com/sites/phildemuth/2013/09/03/essential-reading-deep-risk-by-william-bernstein-plus-q-a-with-author/#770719055e1d It talks about hedging infla...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: So, are Bogleheads Bourbon or Scotch drinkers?
Replies: 115
Views: 7120

Re: So, are Bogleheads Bourbon or Scotch drinkers?

If I were interested in this asset class, I would probably track the All-World Whiskey Index. :beer
by baw703916
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service
Replies: 151
Views: 11127

Re: Is Vanguard phone support always this bad?

I've found that sending Vanguard a secure e-mail seems to be much more productive in achieving a resolution than calling on the phone. This may be because they aren't obligated to answer in real time and can pass the question along to someone who can really answer it. I've occasionally gotten statem...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 25, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for confirmation on tax efficiency regarding TSP
Replies: 8
Views: 627

Re: Looking for confirmation on tax efficiency regarding TSP

One thing to remember: if you are deployed at some point and get tax free pay, you want to contribute to the Roth TSP with that income.
by baw703916
Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?
Replies: 24
Views: 1061

Re: Is Vanguard's "Active" TIPS fund necessary?

Still, I've never been able to figure out for the life of me why Vanguard doesn't just make it an index fund. It's not like "TIPS picking" is an actual thing, even to the extent of stock picking. :?:
by baw703916
Mon Apr 18, 2016 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt really a high yield fund?
Replies: 12
Views: 1116

Re: Is Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt really a high yield fund?

What may be a more significant issue to some investors is that HY TE does have some AMT exposure (it can't be more than 20% per SEC policy to call itself a "tax exempt" fund). It's high yield in the literal sense. The higher yield is obtained by a combination of some AMT exposure, a longer...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Achilles Heel?
Replies: 47
Views: 5603

Re: Total Bond Achilles Heel?

This is the same argument that's made about all kinds of indexing. It's no more valid or invalid for bonds than it is for stocks. In the case of stocks you frequently hear that the market puts the most money in the companies that are biggest and have had the most growth (and are presumed to be crui...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 11, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another question on Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 1516

Re: Yet another question on Roth IRA

Thanks for the replies. My 401k is 40% total market and 60% total bond. Any suggestions for my new Roth Ira ? 50% VTSMX and 50% VGTSX? That sounds good to me. All else being equal, it may be desirable to put assets with the highest expected return (typically equities) into the Roth in the hope that...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 11, 2016 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Form 8606 Basis: Will this be an issue next year?
Replies: 6
Views: 779

Re: Form 8606 Basis: Will this be an issue next year?

If you do the same thing next year (contribute $5500 as a nondeductible contribution to a Tradition IRA and the convert some time later), then after you make the contribution your basis will be $5528. If say the $5500 goes up in value to $5600 by the time you convert, then you will claim $72 ($5600-...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500: 1964-2016 With & Without FOMC Days
Replies: 15
Views: 1866

Re: S&P 500: 1964-2016 With & Without FOMC Days

nisiprius wrote: I'm not sure what meaning that has, either.

"Don't blame us if what we say doesn't work." :)
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500: 1964-2016 With & Without FOMC Days
Replies: 15
Views: 1866

Re: "The Arithmetic of Active Management (market timers)"

Quark: It is easy to look back and see what worked. Unfortunately, what beat the market in the past will more than likely underperform the market in the future. Vanguard once had a market-timing fund. It did so badly it was removed from the Vanguard lineup. Own the market. You never need to worry a...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Yet another question on Roth IRA
Replies: 9
Views: 1516

Re: Yet another question on Roth IRA

A Roth IRA is a good thing IMO. If you have money sitting around and are eligible for a Roth, I think establishing one is a great idea.
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Friend is an Edward Jones financial advisor -- should I drop him?
Replies: 76
Views: 9945

Re: Friend is an Edward Jones financial advisor -- should I drop him?

Well, now that he's no longer with EJ, the question of whether to unfriend him is moot. That was how I interpreted the question that the OP was asking--it never appeared to me that going with EJ was under consideration.
by baw703916
Sun Apr 10, 2016 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about eligibility for self-employment health insurance deduction
Replies: 2
Views: 270

Question about eligibility for self-employment health insurance deduction

In going through the H&R Block software, it appears I may be eligible for the self-employment health insurance deduction (actually an adjustment which lower the AGI--this turns out to be rather critical in my case as it makes the difference between being able to make the full Roth IRA contributi...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 09, 2016 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Northwest Territorial Mint under Chapter 11 trustee
Replies: 4
Views: 679

Re: Northwest Territorial Mint under Chapter 11 trustee

The bankruptcy filing on April 1 seems so appropriate. :)
by baw703916
Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P500)
Replies: 34
Views: 3148

Re: Article by Michael Kitces makes the case that gov. bonds are a better diversifier than corporates (against the S&P50

TBM is fine (maybe even preferred) if you have a low to moderate risk portfolio.

I would encourage Nisiprius to repeat the calculation for an 85% equities portfolio, that's where the lower correlation of Treasuries with equities will give you an advantage.
by baw703916
Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle [may have said] TIPS give you "income risk"
Replies: 58
Views: 4897

Re: Jack Bogle says TIPS give you "income risk"

Note that while TIPS do have disinflation risk (cumulative inflation which is positive over the life of the bond, but less than the market had expected), they do not have deflation risk--they are guaranteed to be redeemed for at least par value, even if there is net deflation over the life of the bo...
by baw703916
Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Unexpectedly hit Roth phaseout region-mechanics of backing out excess?
Replies: 1
Views: 241

Unexpectedly hit Roth phaseout region-mechanics of backing out excess?

I've realized that in 2015 I hit the phaseout region for Roth IRA contributions due to having to realize some capital gains in connection with a move. A recharacterization isn't really an option, as I have a couple pretax iRAs also. It seems the best option for me is to withdraw the excess. How do t...
by baw703916
Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: muni bonds: Vanguard tax-exempt bond ETF vs. Vanguard state muni?
Replies: 8
Views: 797

Re: muni bonds: Vanguard tax-exempt bond ETF vs. Vanguard state muni?

A couple comments: -First, while the Federal tax bite is very significant (33%), the state tax is quite insignificant. In particular, 3% of 1.53% is less than 5 basis points, and at a yield of 2.0% it's 6 bp. It may in fact be even less if you are able to deduct the state taxes from your Federal ret...
by baw703916
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 6905

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

I predict returns going forward between the 2000-present level and the 1982-2000 level, at least as the baseline. I know, such a bold stance. :beer I like the analysis, but I propose taking inflation into account: Using these inflation numbers: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/histori...
by baw703916
Sun Feb 14, 2016 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years
Replies: 59
Views: 6905

Re: S&P500 has basically gone nowhere for 15 years

A few comments, both negative and positive. First the negatives: The S&P 500, including dividends, returned a total of 88% (nominal) or 34% real over a 16 year period. That's ok, not terrible, but not spectacular either. However there are some idealized assumptions. First, our hypothetical inves...
by baw703916
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Presidential Election Cycle Theory
Replies: 9
Views: 1126

Re: Presidential Election Cycle Theory

So the market should have performed better in 2008 than in 2007, which was in turn better than 2006, which was better than 2005. Let's see...

S&P 500 index Total Return

2005 4.91%
2006 15.79%
2007 5.49%
2008 -37.00%

:oops:
by baw703916
Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"
Replies: 9
Views: 1385

"Goldman Sachs Abandons Five of Six 'Top Trade' Calls for 2016"

Not that I was even aware of any of these "calls" to begin with, but I find this quite amusing: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/goldman-sachs-abandons-five-of-six-top-trade-calls-for-2016 Goldman Sachs to clients: whoops. Just six weeks into 2016, the New York-based bank ...
by baw703916
Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VSS Spreads and TLH [FTSE Small Cap ex-US and Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 29
Views: 1546

Re: VSS Spreads and TLH [FTSE Small Cap ex-US and Tax Loss Harvesting]

You might be better sticking to Admiral shares, except for FTSE small-cap there aren't any.

Why don't you try putting a bid in the spread and wait 15 minutes to see if anybody bites? That works for me more often than not.
by baw703916
Mon Feb 08, 2016 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My TLH experience with ETFs
Replies: 3
Views: 541

Re: My TLH experience with ETFs

I've been able to buy or sell ETFs somewhere within the spread about 60% of the time. Of course you need to have more than 60 seconds available to do so.
by baw703916
Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense ratio vs return on investment
Replies: 15
Views: 1572

Re: Expense ratio vs return on investment

If we are talking about index funds, then a fund that invests in a riskier asset class (SV, EM, Int. smallcap ) will have higher expected returns but also a higher expense ratio than TSM.

If we are talking about active funds, then we shouldn't be, IMO. :)
by baw703916
Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merged accounts at Vanguard--cost basis info gone
Replies: 14
Views: 2530

Re: Merged accounts at Vanguard--cost basis info gone

I'd suggest a secure e-mail to Vanguard prior to doing anything, assuming the transfer isn't time-critical. It may be that when I merged my accounts Vanguard hadn't yet worked out all the bugs of the merge, and so my experience could be a consequence of the time period of when this happened.
by baw703916
Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 9124

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

We have gone on for 3 pages debating the merits of this model or that, how the output of the model should be stated interpreted etc. I think Charlie Munger sums it up in 4 sentences. "People have always had this craving to have someone tell them the future. Long ago, kings would hire people to...
by baw703916
Sat Feb 06, 2016 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merged accounts at Vanguard--cost basis info gone
Replies: 14
Views: 2530

Re: Merged accounts at Vanguard--cost basis info gone

Yes, my issue did get resolved--I only now realize that it was left hanging in the thread.
by baw703916
Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!
Replies: 69
Views: 4410

Re: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!

What benefit would I have received if I were to have taken said pledge?

(hmm, I rather like that phrasing, I think I'll try to use the past subjunctive more often!) :)
by baw703916
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF regret
Replies: 26
Views: 2449

Re: ETF regret

Toons wrote:Who in the world looks at mutual fund NAV prices after the purchase is made.


Tax loss harvesters.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2873

Re: How do ETFs work?

Last I checked my Vanguard fund prospectus it shows that my Total Stock Market index fund had ~30% in embedded/unrealized capital gains while (if I remember), the total international index fund had unrealized losses. After writing this, the unrealized gain scenario worried me enough that I just wen...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 9124

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Of course one point about the example in the OP is that the 10 year annualized return from 1996 looks very different than the 6 year or the 12 year annualized return. So this looks too starting and ending point dependent to be meaningful. Here are the year to end of 2015 annualized returns for each...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2873

Re: How do ETFs work?

What year was that distribution? In particular, does it post-date the ETF share class? 1998, 1999, 2000 are some years when there were capital gains distributions. It is hard to find a link that shows this, but it can be discerned from looking at both a morningstar.com chart which can show dividend...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2873

Re: How do ETFs work?

Regarding ETF shares, there was just a thread yesterday comparing Fidelity's extended market index fund, which tends to throw off capital gains distributions, and Vanguard's equivalent fund, which doesn't. One difference is the Vanguard fund has ETF shares and the Fidelity fund doesn't. Once again,...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2873

Re: How do ETFs work?

Regarding ETF shares, there was just a thread yesterday comparing Fidelity's extended market index fund, which tends to throw off capital gains distributions, and Vanguard's equivalent fund, which doesn't. One difference is the Vanguard fund has ETF shares and the Fidelity fund doesn't.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 124
Views: 9124

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Of course one point about the example in the OP is that the 10 year annualized return from 1996 looks very different than the 6 year or the 12 year annualized return. So this looks too starting and ending point dependent to be meaningful.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FSEVX Distribution [Fidelity Spartan Extended Market]
Replies: 25
Views: 1443

Re: FSEVX Distribution

More precisely, all of Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund's distributions were dividends (which are unavoidable unless the fund doesn't own any dividend-paying stocks). There were no capital gains distributions for the Vanguard fund for 2015: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Holding Your Assets in the Right Types of Accounts?"
Replies: 5
Views: 1630

Re: "Are You Holding Your Assets in the Right Types of Accounts?"

For many years I've held tax-exempt bonds in my taxable accounts as well as taxable bonds in my tax-advantaged accounts. This year I moved and for various reasons bought my new house a few months before selling the old one. Having those tax-exempt bonds that I could sell for the house purchase witho...

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