Search found 6455 matches

by baw703916
Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50% of my "number" today
Replies: 15
Views: 2847

Re: Reached 50% of my "number" today

Of course, today the markets are down somewhat, so I'm probably no longer about 50%!

I guess I should panic sell and start market timing! 8-)

(just kidding!)
by baw703916
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50% of my "number" today
Replies: 15
Views: 2847

Reached 50% of my "number" today

FWIW, I reached one-third a little over 4 years ago.

Just thought this was an appropriate time to say thanks to all the Bogleheads who have given me good advice over the years.
by baw703916
Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2042

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

I wrote that post while thinking about callable munis, while the actual question was about MBS. My bad! For an issuer of munis there is an asymmetric risk. If say a bond has a 30 year maturity but is callable after 20 years, the issuer will only refinance if the market interest rates are lower than ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."
Replies: 284
Views: 24832

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Thank you, Larry, for all your contributions to this forum, and for all that you have taught me, and many others.

I look forward to your future books.

Brad
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 19
Views: 1718

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

I was just thinking about progress in our "modern times." This happened in the early 1960`s. From the second quote, I don't think this can be blamed on modernity or technology. There have always been, and will always be, people encouraging you to do things that are in their best interest,...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2042

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

Especially with mortgage related bonds, prepayment can be a significant contributor to the lower duration vs maturity. So that risk is already baked into the duration? Well, not exactly. :) If interest rates drop then prepayment and refinancing is likely, but if interest rates rise it isn't. So it'...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3368

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

Wow. It sounds like the investors who stuck with the PIMCO Total Return Fund and didn't bail, had the last laugh. Those who left PIMCO and went to the new Bill Gross fund at Janus must be feeling pretty stupid right now. I don't know, I wouldn't lose that much sleep knowing my $10K underperformed b...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]
Replies: 10
Views: 1614

Re: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]

Well, if you really want to make sure you buy for less than NAV, there's always closed end funds! ;)
by baw703916
Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1328

Re: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds

I'm not sure why this thread went down the rabbit hole of whether or not REITs are good things to invest in... That wasn't the question, it was whether they are equities. And low correlation, while nice if you can get it, doesn't have anything to do with the question. REITs are equities, because sha...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1328

Re: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds

REITs are equities, albeit a special category with some unusual characteristics.

But if you're doing a breakdown of your portfolio into equity and bond percentages, put them in equities.
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing purchase of new home prior to selling old one
Replies: 7
Views: 553

Re: Financing purchase of new home prior to selling old one

Do you have any taxable investments without too much in the way of capital gains? I moved a couple years ago, and had several months of owning two houses. I quickly realized that getting a place in Seattle pretty much required a cash offer, and so I maxed out my HELOC and sold a bunch of stuff in my...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: You can never go "home" - retirement
Replies: 83
Views: 11309

Re: You can never go "home" - retirement

To go home again, I'd have to afford a house in the Bay Area. :moneybag
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - The Math Behind Futility
Replies: 8
Views: 1458

Re: Bloomberg - The Math Behind Futility

OK, this is about "What" to own and not "When" to own it. Suppose I only buy VTI and just market-time buying and selling? Then this paper does not apply. There must be some other paper that does apply though. I don't have a reference, but the idea is that the outsize gains of th...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio: FTIPX or FSGDX ?
Replies: 13
Views: 795

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio: FTIPX or FSGDX ?

Agree that for a 3 Fund, FTIPX is more diversified, as it includes small caps. It's similar to the comparison between Vanguard's Total International (similar to FTIPX) vs. FTSE all-world ex-US large cap (similar to FSGDX). Most people would say Total International is preferable, but that FTSE large ...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??
Replies: 23
Views: 1681

Re: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??

Veiex/Vemax, the Vanguard emerging market index fund, invests in China A-shares, which have frontier market status in the MSCI taxonomy. But does that actually give you exposure to anything different? I realize that the different share classes in China don't all move in lockstep for various reasons...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Edge Score / Power Rating
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: Market Edge Score / Power Rating

Since I wasn't familiar with the Schwab tickers: SCHB=broad US market SCHF=international developed SCHE=Emerging markets So a 100% equity portfolio, with 20% international and EM at about market weight relative to international developed. With no bonds, it a bit aggressive, but not at all unreasonab...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2754

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

Here is what I have in my Roth DGS (EM small dividend) 20% DLS (Intl. developed small dividend) 18% DEM (EM largecap dividend) 18% RZV (US small value) 16% VNQI (Intl. RE) 13% VNQ (REITs) 9% LTPZ (>10 year TIPS) 5% SPY call options ($185 strike price, March 2018 expiration) 3% As many might guess, t...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2754

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

I'm somewhat confused. I also am at a high marginal tax rate which I fully expect to be just as high in the future. I have no concern about heirs as I intend to leave tax deferred leftovers to charity. Equity in taxable, sloughing LTCG's and qualified dividends, are taxed at favorable rates. Muni's...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2754

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

I'd recommend putting as many aggressive equity investments in the Roth, and dialing back on the risk in the rest of the portfolio to compensate. So things like international small, emerging market small, small value, etc. I'm not sure what you are saying on leveraged ETFs. I don't recommend them--t...
by baw703916
Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??
Replies: 23
Views: 1681

Re: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??

Well, at least FM (the ETF) does invest in frontier markets. Some "frontier market" funds are a mixture of Emerging and Frontier, which means that the EM part of the portfolio costs a lot more than it should.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Continuing to Invest in Muni Bond Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1402

Re: Continuing to Invest in Muni Bond Funds

After my muni funds dropped in value, I sold them in December at a short term loss, then bought them back a couple months later. That gave me a nice tax break for 2016.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MAGI above Roth cutoff by $103, what to do?
Replies: 22
Views: 2146

Re: MAGI above Roth cutoff by $103, what to do?

The math does get a little complicated, but brokers are set up to handle this. I did this last year after making my Roth contribution at the beginning of the year like a good Boglehead, then having my MAGI be higher than expected due to taking some capital gains in connection with a move. One thing ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient
Replies: 22
Views: 1780

Re: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient

Is there a reason not to buy the Vanguard TSM ETF (VTI) or Admiral Shares (VTSAX)? just because I have a fidelity account and I think I would have to pay extra to get vanguard funds. In that case the Vanguard mutual fund shares probably would have a higher purchase fee than you'd want to pay. But t...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient
Replies: 22
Views: 1780

Re: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient

In general, Fidelity index funds have tended to distribute capital gains more often than corresponding Vanguard funds--probably a consequence of there not being an ETF share class. This may be less of an issue for TSM than for e.g. Extended Market Index, which has distributed quite a bit of capital ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 1905

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

2. U.S. Stocks don't give enough international exposure.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1329

Re: Muni Bonds in a Taxable Account

I think it's fine to have some tax-exempt bonds in taxable. This proved very useful for me a couple years ago, as I was moving and figured out that given the real estate market in Seattle, I was best served by putting together a cash offer on a house here. Having muni funds that I could cash in with...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular
Replies: 6
Views: 562

Re: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular

RZG is almost a micro-cap fund. According to M*, it has an average market cap of $1333M, and holds 48% micro-cap stock. (Interestingly, both RZG and the value analogue RZV have lower market cap than the S&P 600 index. It is more extreme for RZV, which has an $800M average market cap and 79% mic...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular
Replies: 6
Views: 562

Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular

According to the conventional wisdom, small growth is the black hole of investing: it has tended to perform worse than the sum of its tilting components. Larry has speculated that in part this may have to do with IPOs often being included in this style box. The Guggenheim small value fund RZV has be...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?
Replies: 19
Views: 1389

Re: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?

Schadenfreude-y posts on this board (e.g. "SG has beaten SV over the last 10 years!") make great contrarian indicators about where the puck is liable to be in the future.
by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clearing customs in Seattle
Replies: 20
Views: 1545

Re: Clearing customs in Seattle

SEA has warned people at various times over the last year that security lines can be long. I haven't experienced that myself, and usually during peak travel intervals (Thanksgiving, Christmas). And maybe they've figured out how to expedite things a little by now. Still 3 hours 35 minutes gives quite...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?
Replies: 24
Views: 2582

Re: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?

I did use a Heloc on my old house as part of a way to make a cash offer for my current house. I was selling the old house in a few months anyway, so the higher interest rate didn't matter in any significant way. And it was obvious that absent a cash offer it was going to be challenging to buy a hous...
by baw703916
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: small cap value international etf
Replies: 5
Views: 574

Re: small cap value international etf

-VSS is international small, not small value. It may "accidentally" be categorized as value in somebody's listing, but its goal is to mirror international small-caps as a whole, and it does not screen stocks by any value characteristic. -QUSOX is an active traditional mutual fund, not an E...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018-19 Toronto Vanc Sydney Melb Auckland housing crash?
Replies: 8
Views: 1122

Re: 2018-19 Toronto Vanc Sydney Melb Auckland housing crash?

I'm reading this thread with some interest as I live in Seattle, which has an insane housing market at the moment--not sure how much is Asian redirects from Vancouver and how much is IT engineers being hired by Amazon and other local employers.
by baw703916
Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting deeper small-cap value exposure in taxable is almost free
Replies: 24
Views: 2592

Re: Getting deeper small-cap value exposure in taxable is almost free

Good thread, David. You have noticed the same thing I have: while value stocks tend to have higher dividend yields, deep value stocks sometimes don't, and small stocks tend to have lower dividends that large stocks. So SV has one factor (V) which tends to increase tax costs (but not by quite as much...
by baw703916
Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?
Replies: 50
Views: 4395

Re: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?

So I did a quick calculation. Say the hedge funds had decided to coast after jumping out to a big lead, and just tracked the S&P 500 for 2009-2016 (but imposed a 2 and 20 fee structure).

They still would be trailing today, just because of the cumulative fees.
by baw703916
Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 3409

Re: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF

lack_ey wrote:
Chart for reference:

Image


A pretty dramatic move. If only there were a way to trade on this...maybe an ETF? :wink:
by baw703916
Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Important Bear Market Signal sent
Replies: 19
Views: 3160

Re: Important Bear Market Signal sent

Studies show* that once market signals are publicly identified, they stop working.

Let's hope that's true in this case.




* Which studies? I have no idea. It just sounded good.
by baw703916
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?
Replies: 50
Views: 4395

Re: How dumb are hedge fund managers?

David Jay wrote:They are not dumb at all. They received 60% of all gains in their funds.

now investors, on the other hand...


That's why I always found the title of the book Hedge Funds for Dummies hilarious. Aren't all hedge funds intended for (rich) dummies, given the 2 and 20 fee structure?
by baw703916
Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.
Replies: 24
Views: 4483

Re: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.

nisiprius wrote:Just in case anyone else kept misreading the name "Ohama," it's "Ohama," with an "H", named after one Bill Ohama.


So I guess this thread isn't necessarily going to get locked after all?

I'm not sure how I feel about that.
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Against the Tide, Adviser (Dan Wiener) Succeeds With Vanguard’s Active Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 778

Re: Against the Tide, Adviser Succeeds With Vanguard’s Active Fund

1. If you hope to be in the minority of investors who outperform using active funds, your best chance of doing so is to use funds that have: -a low expense ratio -adequate diversification -minimal style drift all of which describe Vanguard's active funds. 2. The S&P is only the correct benchmark...
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1607

Re: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?

I'm not sure what time period is being considered in the OP, but the 5 year returns don't seem anything to write home about. 3/4/2012 - 3/3/3017 FOCPX: +49.7% OK, this works out to an annualized return of 8.7%--nothing to complain about. But what if you'd just bought an S&P 500 index fund? SPY: ...
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1607

Re: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?

This is a large cap growth fund of both US and foreign stocks (small percentage). It focuses on stocks that are on the NASDAQ exchange. So the question, if one wants to invest in NASDAQ-listed stocks for whatever reason, is how this fund has performed relative to the NASDAQ tracking ETF QQQ, which ...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth milestone reached: $100,000!
Replies: 52
Views: 4030

Re: Net worth milestone reached: $100,000!

Congratulations! The absolute amount of net worth relative to others on the board isn't the important thing (they have different life situations and may have had many more years to accumulate). You've worked very hard to get to this place, and learned a lot of valuable lessons. I'm sure this won't b...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter
Replies: 9
Views: 1413

Re: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter

A couple comments: 1. tax costs are really just another cost, aren't they? The statement that active investors (in aggregate) and passive investors (in aggregate and also individually, if they hold the market portfolio) perform equally before costs isn't negated by taxes. 2. I don't know of any inve...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?
Replies: 4
Views: 446

Re: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?

The cutoff point is $200 to maintain a TSP account. Anything less and your account is closed and you receive a check for the sub $200 balance. If you want to withdraw as much of the Roth portion of your TSP account, first perform an interfund transfer to 100% G and then withdraw all but $200 from y...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?
Replies: 44
Views: 3342

Re: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?

The question is (do not know the answer) about federal employee financial incentives to retire when an agecy needs to downsize. If you provide a lengthy notice of plan to retire, then aren't you risking missing out on a financial incentive to retire since the agency knows you will retire (and get o...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?
Replies: 44
Views: 3342

Re: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?

I was a Fed for 20 years, and separated a couple years ago. My advice would be, if you are responsible for an important function that requires continuity upon your departure, then 6-8 months notice is probably appropriate so that you can pass on your knowledge to your designated successor. I think 1...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?
Replies: 4
Views: 446

TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?

I separated from Federal service a couple years go. I have a TSP account, a few % of which is Roth and the rest pretax. The TSP doesn't let you have a different AA for Roth and traditional, or specifically withdraw one or the other--everything is prorated between the Roth and traditional amounts in ...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter
Replies: 9
Views: 1413

Re: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter

Front-running the index is one possibility. Granted, for a total market index, this is likely to only happen in the case of IPOs and delistings for bankruptcy.
by baw703916
Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-Fund Portfolio Question?
Replies: 9
Views: 1447

Re: Three-Fund Portfolio Question?

What I really want to know is which fund will have the best return in the second 16 years of this century! 8-)

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