Search found 6515 matches

by baw703916
Tue Jul 25, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 145
Views: 8088

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

JoMoney wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:Should you confuse strategy with outcome?

What is the objective of the strategy?


To achieve confirmation bias? 8-)
by baw703916
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 145
Views: 8088

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

... https://s17.postimg.org/6bbblojcf/1491581046651.jpg ... Without taking a position here, let me just say that that's a very nice chart. (Is anybody kidding themselves yet that they see a predictable cycle in it? :twisted: ) I see not exactly a predictable cycle, but a few general tendencies: 1) ...
by baw703916
Sat Jul 22, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields
Replies: 42
Views: 3022

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Drives Municipal Bond Yields

Nice article by Larry, and it makes a point that I've been arguing on this board for quite a while: that for about a decade now, yields on high grade munis have been comparable (and often higher) than Treasuries of equal maturity. So why does the conventional dogma about bonds in tax-advantaged stil...
by baw703916
Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Making the Leap to Self-Employment
Replies: 16
Views: 1591

Re: Making the Leap to Self-Employment

It may be worth asking how the OP intends to handle health insurance, especially given the landscape may change in an unpredictable way in the relatively near future.
by baw703916
Wed Jul 12, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SIMPLE-IRA: all contributions (including match) immediately vested?
Replies: 5
Views: 360

Re: SIMPLE-IRA: all contributions (including match) immediately vested?

One wrinkle with a SIMPLE IRA is the employer match works a little differently. It's a % of salary over the whole year, not for each pay period. And the employer can wait until the end of the year to put in their portion of the match.
by baw703916
Sun Jul 09, 2017 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6597

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

Thanks for giving your thoughts, Bill! I also, though, can't help but wonder how recent high equity returns have flavored this thread. Had it taken place in 2009, far fewer folks would have taken umbrage at holding a large amount of fixed income assets. As I remember it, in 2009 there were a lot of ...
by baw703916
Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6597

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

OTOH, the "U.S. Market in Freefall" thread now seems to be pretty close to the longest on the site. I think real estate in my neck of the woods is much more likely to be in a bubble than the stock market (unless you believe there can't be a real estate bubble in Seattle because it's still ...
by baw703916
Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 29200

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Setting aside the two *additional* properties, I would love to know where in the Bay you can have a 2500 SF home on a quarter acre with a view of the Bay and the city for less than, say, 1MM (I'm assuming the other 1MM is tied up in the other two properties and liquid spending needs). I'm casting m...
by baw703916
Mon Jul 03, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?
Replies: 24
Views: 1924

Re: Why Isn't a Taxable Account Considered Part of an Emergency Fund?

I think it makes sense to have one's emergency fund be layered. An "emergency" isn't a one size fits all thing, in amount of money needed, reason for the need, duration, correlation with economic conditions... So in order of priority, emergency fund layers might look something like this 1....
by baw703916
Mon Jul 03, 2017 12:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Looking for a source of advice (multifaceted situation)
Replies: 4
Views: 803

Looking for a source of advice (multifaceted situation)

I'm looking for a source of advice on my rather unique financial situation. Maybe not completely unique, but I've never found advice on this board or elsewhere that addresses the major issues in my financial planning. Basically, my situation involves having a disability, the possibility of needing l...
by baw703916
Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB Stock [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B]
Replies: 26
Views: 2587

Re: BRKB Stock [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B]

Besides the mantra about individual stocks (which can be read on hundreds of threads on the board), there's also the question of whether one already owns BRK in a taxable account, and how much in the way of capital gains one would realize by selling it. I own it, but it's only 2% or so of my portfol...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 4414

Re: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements

Top99% wrote:I love this one in "11 signs" : 8. Jim Cramer? Who’s that?
During the tech bubble I don't know if I lost more chasing Jim's picks or Fortune Magazine's picks. I have been passive ever since.


Didn't he write a forward for one of the Bogleheads books? Or maybe it was one of John Bogle's?
by baw703916
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?
Replies: 228
Views: 24942

Re: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?

They are not the same. One insures your ability to work and get a paycheck. The other insures your medical costs. If you have considerable assets, but are unable to keep working due to a significant health issue...stand alone disability isn't going to help you much, because while you might be able ...
by baw703916
Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?
Replies: 228
Views: 24942

Re: Early Retirement - what to do about healthcare?

The individual insurance market is a concern for everyone, even employed people who get group insurance from their employer. Early retirement and layoffs aren't the only scenarios. If you get seriously ill (cancer, auto-immune disease, etc.), you are likely to lose your ability to do your job, and ...
by baw703916
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Bogleheads success story
Replies: 20
Views: 5375

Re: A Bogleheads success story

VictoriaF wrote:
Gamma Ray wrote:Bogleheads meet in person? I never knew that.


You did not know that in October 200 of us will be meeting in Pennsylvania? Or that we have local groups, including some outside the U.S.?

Victoria


I've met VictoriaF in person! And she's just as knowledgeable and witty as one would expect. :)
by baw703916
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?
Replies: 140
Views: 8365

Re: Where to find a financially like-minded significant other?

Maybe we need to apply efficient market theory here...similar to the story of the $20 bill.

If an ideal Boglehead spouse is out there, why hasn't some other Boglehead already picked them up? :wink:
by baw703916
Fri Jun 23, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1785

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

I know the literature for the G Fund speaks of an "investment objective", but really, what the heck does that even mean in this case? The G Fund can invest in one thing and one thing only: special Treasury securities which have a maturity the next business day. The characteristics of those...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1785

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

G fund is more volatile as it is directly tied to Treasury rates as described above. How can the G fund be more volatile than literally any investment you can think of. It can't lose money, by rule. It has zero duration. I was referring to the rate, not principal. All of these are principal-protect...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 22, 2017 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?
Replies: 20
Views: 1785

Re: Sheltering in the TSP's G Fund...A bad idea?

The G Fund's investment objective is to produce a rate of return that is higher than inflation while avoiding exposure to credit (default) risk and market price fluctuations. So, the stated goal of the fund is to beat inflation, and so far, over thirty years it's met that stated goal. Do we questio...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insurance snafu with sewer line break at condo
Replies: 29
Views: 2763

Re: Insurance snafu with sewer line break at condo

investor997 wrote:I'll have to check with the agent again... I'm not sure he knew what he was talking about.


If that's the case, it's probably better to find that out now, when it's not your claim.
by baw703916
Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2830

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

I think I have less ability to identify outperforming managers than outperforming stocks.
by baw703916
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2868

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I was being facetious. I can think of no good reason for active management for this fund, and yes the idea that some Treasuries will outperform is ridiculous. I can think of a score. Most bond indexes only cover 10% of the most actively bonds, if you are willing to take a little liquidity risk you ...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1949

Re: LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds?

saltycaper wrote:
baw703916 wrote:Does Fidelity have an equivalent of TR that is made up of index funds?


Yes. Fidelity Freedom Index Funds. (Not the same composition as Vanguard.)


Thanks. The regular Freedom Funds are kind of a mess.
by baw703916
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1949

Re: LifeStrategy or Target Retirement Funds?

Does Fidelity have an equivalent of TR that is made up of index funds?
by baw703916
Tue Jun 20, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2868

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I hope Vanguard has a good method to identify those Treasuries that will outperform! :) Seriously, the only effect of a lot of these bond funds being actively managed seems to be that the Admiral minimum is $50,000. Why is your metric "outperform" and what does outperform even mean? Witho...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 44
Views: 2868

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

I hope Vanguard has a good method to identify those Treasuries that will outperform! :)

Seriously, the only effect of a lot of these bond funds being actively managed seems to be that the Admiral minimum is $50,000.
by baw703916
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insurance snafu with sewer line break at condo
Replies: 29
Views: 2763

Re: Insurance snafu with sewer line break at condo

What I'd suggest doing is to talk to your insurance agent, and make sure that he has reviewed the "Master Policy" held by the HOA, to make sure that your policy's coverage fits together with that with no gaps in coverage. The property manager should be able to provide contact information f...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 8046

Re: Trust Fund Hell

With 17 active funds...well, at least you've diversified away a lot of the manager risk! :twisted:
by baw703916
Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 12534

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

Seriously...what is the point of this thread? Mr. Bogle has stated his preference for investing in the U.S. on many occasions. I personally happen to disagree with him on this, but he is sincere in his belief, and I respect his opinion. But, there's nothing much new in this thread. Some Bogleheads l...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Longest conversation thread?
Replies: 6
Views: 949

Re: Longest conversation thread?

If Petrocelli had $5 for every reply to "Best watch for around $5000?", it would be paid for! :)
by baw703916
Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10459

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

Depends how old you are...

The worst crash in the lifetime of Taylor Larimore would be worse than 1929.

OTOH, any bear market at all would be the worst crash in the lifetime of a child under the age of 8.
by baw703916
Wed Jun 07, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would You Sell Berkshire?
Replies: 17
Views: 1381

Re: Would You Sell Berkshire?

Over a decade ago, I bought some BH---5 shares. It was around $3k per share at the time. We held onto and it split (50 shares for every 1). I can't remember what year, but we sold 1/2 the shares, and have kept 1/2 the shares, so we still have our original monies invested plus a few thousand . Am lo...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Bogleheads success story
Replies: 20
Views: 5375

Re: A Bogleheads success story

moneywise3 wrote:Make sure he is rebalancing


Point well taken!
by baw703916
Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A Bogleheads success story
Replies: 20
Views: 5375

A Bogleheads success story

About six years ago, a close friend of mine received an inheritance. He knew that I had investments and was a fan of index funds, and asked me to help him invest the money. I thought about it, and solicited advice from the board and at a DC Bogleheads meeting. I ended up recommending a slightly modi...
by baw703916
Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it possible to make 75k with 100K in x years ?
Replies: 55
Views: 4764

Re: Is it possible to make 75k with 100K in x years ?

I don't think your advisor is giving you very good advice, frankly. What I mean by that is that there's no guarantee that you will make more than 4.2% over 30 years, with any portfolio allocation. The only guaranteed return over a 30 year period is a 30 year Treasury bond. I think you should separat...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 02, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What Will Home Care Cost?
Replies: 25
Views: 2542

Re: What Will Home Care Cost?

I don't have a lot to add in terms of financial and logistical information, but wanted to wish both of you well in this situation.
by baw703916
Tue May 30, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mind the Gap 2017"
Replies: 14
Views: 2004

Re: "Mind the Gap 2017"

The math is possible because investors/speculators buy high and sell low. They would have been better staying the course. That is probably true, but doesn't explain how this is possible. Investors collectively own the market portfolio at all times. So if someone underperforms by market timing, some...
by baw703916
Tue May 30, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mind the Gap 2017"
Replies: 14
Views: 2004

Re: "Mind the Gap 2017"

Well yes, I'm staying the course.

But I still don't see how this is mathematically possible unless:

1) Lake Wobegon has an evil sister city where all the children are below average.

or

2) Investor behavior is a valid contrarian indicator.
by baw703916
Mon May 29, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to buy brk.a? [Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class A]
Replies: 24
Views: 3146

Re: How to buy brk.a?

To hold the market weight of BRK-A you would need a portfolio size around $12 million. Which, in a more serious vein, is why BRK wasn't in the S&P 500 until very recently. Before the merger with BNSF, even B shares were several thousand $, which made it very difficult to include it and have cre...
by baw703916
Sat May 27, 2017 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 8205

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

The thing about bubbles is you can't see them from the inside. I don't think that's always true. I remember, regarding the real estate bubble, in 2006 that I would not have been able to buy my own house, even though my salary had doubled in the 10 years since I had bought it. And then hearing on th...
by baw703916
Thu May 25, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks
Replies: 33
Views: 1909

Re: BlackRock, Vanguard Mull Pressuring Exxon to Disclose Climate Risks

Without diving into this specific instance, this is something that was implied in recent remarks of Jack Bogle in which he pointed out that Vanguard, Blackrock, and State Street collectively hold 21% of all U.S. equities. --if their collective share gets a little larger, and they decide to work toge...
by baw703916
Sun May 21, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5729

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

I think that buying U.S. Treasuries is somewhat different. Since about 1930, the US$ has been acknowledged as the world's reserve currency, and Treasuries are the only way to own that currency without credit risk, since they're issued by the entity that controls the currency. I suppose it may be use...
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5729

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

But the fact that many investors choose to invest in U.S. markets is reflected in the market caps of the U.S. vs. other markets. So an investor following market weights will have a larger proportion invested in the U.S. if the world consensus is to invest in the U.S.
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5729

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

Good thing we have the real Jack Bogle! IOW, good thing the real Jack Bogle has had his home country bias directed fortuitously. So if a Brazilian investor looks at all of the evidence and choose to invest primarily in the U.S. market, that's not home country bias, but if Bogle, Buffett, and countl...
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5729

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

IlliniDave wrote:
Good thing we have the real Jack Bogle!


IOW, good thing the real Jack Bogle has had his home country bias directed fortuitously.
by baw703916
Fri May 19, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 42
Views: 5662

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Couldn't this article more accurately be titled "Why actively-managed value investing has disappointed"?
by baw703916
Sat May 13, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Old Habits Can Sabotage Retirement
Replies: 51
Views: 7550

Re: How Old Habits Can Sabotage Retirement

I think some people are just psychologically wired to be savers, and others, spenders. I'd say that spenders predominate in most of U.S. society. Not sure to what extent there are differences between countries/cultures. On bogleheads, savers predominate--I think I'm pretty safe in making this claim,...
by baw703916
Mon May 08, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread
Replies: 52
Views: 9478

Re: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread

Meetings in Seattle would be great. I'm not sure I have a suggestion for a venue. Most anywhere downtown or north of downtown could work for me.
by baw703916
Sun May 07, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. BOGLE: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early
Replies: 68
Views: 3940

Re: For Mr. Bogle: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early

Happy Birthday!! Hope you had a great time in Omaha this weekend.

Brad
by baw703916
Sat May 06, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self fund LTC
Replies: 19
Views: 1544

Re: How much to self fund LTC

Is there a numerical value that anyone can equate to "substantial assets"? $1.5M? $3M? $5M? $10M?

What source of advice exist for this question?

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