Search found 6404 matches

by baw703916
Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 59
Views: 3495

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016

nisiprius wrote:To say that hedge funds will outperform as long as everything is normal...


I think that more precisely, hedge funds will outperform as long a distributions are normal. :happy
by baw703916
Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX now has 0.11% ER [Vanguard Total Int'l Stock, Admiral Class]
Replies: 43
Views: 4396

Re: VTIAX now has 0.11% ER

rtraud wrote:I noticed the reduction too. My Vanguard muni bond funds also ticked down from 0.20% to 0.19%. And, I just graduated to the Admiral shares of their REIT mutual fund, so it's a good day for me, fee-wise.


Actually the Admiral shares on the national muni funds went from 0.12% to 0.09% :)
by baw703916
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1340

Re: "High conviction investing"

If you're trading on insider information, it could be "high conviction" in a couple different senses of the term. :twisted:
by baw703916
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons
Replies: 15
Views: 967

Re: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons

If one is inclined to hold long-term bonds as a counterweight to an equity-heavy portfolio, I'd recommend splitting them between nominal Treasuries and TIPS.
by baw703916
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the big things to get right?
Replies: 58
Views: 6250

Re: What are the big things to get right?

It would be wonderful if there were the marriage equivalent of an index fund so you could avoid idiosyncratic risk and compare on the basis of lowest expenses. ;)
by baw703916
Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?
Replies: 5
Views: 1195

Re: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?

from this article "...This time, we see that Jack is moving into TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). "In fact, the only investment change I've made in the past few years is a move of about 6% of combined assets from Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index (VBILX) to Vanguard Inf...
by baw703916
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reason to delay using Turbotax to file taxes?
Replies: 13
Views: 1488

Re: Any reason to delay using Turbotax to file taxes?

One reason that it might be good to wait (although it sounds like this might not apply to you) is that brokerages sometimes revise 1099s in terms of what percentage of dividend distributions were qualified, was a distribution a return of capital or a capital gain distribution, etc. This has happened...
by baw703916
Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Iron Law of Valuation
Replies: 24
Views: 2474

Re: The Iron Law of Valuation

And then there's this one. I'll just let Morningstar pick the benchmarks. Source https://s27.postimg.org/o6os1xe9v/Captura_de_pantalla_2017_02_06_a_las_9_27_54_AM.png https://s23.postimg.org/sxxqcakl7/Captura_de_pantalla_2017_02_06_a_las_9_52_08_AM.png Oh wow, HSGFX has gone parabolic! More precise...
by baw703916
Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costs of the TSP? is it self-sustained?
Replies: 33
Views: 3102

Re: Costs of the TSP? is it self-sustained?

Exactly why I'm about to do a partial withdrawal of two comma TSP, leaving $1000 behind. Rolling over to Fidelity TIRA and Roth IRA, then rolling back six figure TIRA amount to park in the G fund as overall retirement bond allocation. TSP retirement withdrawal options suck, and mandatory Roth RMDs ...
by baw703916
Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary
Replies: 50
Views: 6709

Re: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary

If this documentary is the one that a co-worker of mine was referring to in conversation today, my advice is that if your spouse is sick in bed with the flu and asks for a bucket, don't bring a colander. :)
by baw703916
Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Small Company SIMPLE IRA Plan
Replies: 9
Views: 460

Re: Small Company SIMPLE IRA Plan

My employer (eight employees) has a SIMPLE IRA with Fidelity. You have to be a little more judicious in your choice of funds than with Vanguard, but you can put together a very reasonable portfolio of index funds there as well. Yeah I really don't get why the contribution limit is lower than for a 4...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks Down - My Fault
Replies: 26
Views: 3973

Re: Stocks Down - My Fault

Markets were down sharply Monday in response to news that numerous Bogleheads are rebalancing and making IRA contributions. Analysts are divided on what this portends for the rest of the week.


:)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting a previously inherited IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 1545

Re: Inheriting a previously inherited IRA

What about a situation where RMDs from inherited retirement accounts make one ineligible to contribute to a Roth IRA, and the back door isn't practical due to the pro-rata rule? Is it still advantageous to follow the RMD schedule as opposed to taking a lump sum and then being able to contribute to a...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drivers License May not be good for air travel?
Replies: 47
Views: 4316

Re: Drivers License May not be good for air travel?

One issue is when you need to renew a passport, you have to send the old one in, and it typically takes an extended time for the new one to show up in the mail. So how would someone who travels regularly handle this without being grounded for an indeterminate period?
by baw703916
Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is exchanging FSIVX for FTIPX considered a wash?
Replies: 15
Views: 1134

Re: Is exchanging FSIVX for FTIPX considered a wash?

FTIPX is equivalent to Vanguard's Total International index fund (but follows the MSCI index which Vanguard's fund used to but no longer does). FSIVX follows the MSCI EAFE index, which excludes Canada, Emerging Markets, and small caps. FWIW, FTIPX has IMO more diversification, and I own it in a reti...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!
Replies: 199
Views: 7348

Re: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!

Happy Birthday, Taylor! Thanks for all you've done, and continue to do, to help people become better investors.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow crosses 20,000?
Replies: 28
Views: 2984

Re: Dow crosses 20,000?

TropikThunder wrote:
thomasbayarea wrote:I'm an engineer.

Anything above 19,500 is rounded up to 20,000.

:sharebeer


I'm a molecular biologist, we usually add error bars like 19,500 +/- 500 :|


36,000 +/- 16,500 ;)
by baw703916
Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2279

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

Thank you, Taylor , for posting this. Just this week I read and extended and impassioned call for including a similar list of "Alternatives" to the tune of 20% to 30% of one's portfolio. This listing of returns for 2016 provides a nice splash of cold water over any serious consideration o...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"
Replies: 7
Views: 1070

Re: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"

One of my pet peeves about how these examples are constructed in most Roth vs. traditional articles: Now let's take a look at a similar example, this time using Roth contributions. Thirty-five-year-old Michael, like Cathy, is in the 25% tax bracket. He too has $5,000 to invest per year, but he has o...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5664

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

nisiprius wrote:Let's try to remember to check in a year and see how these three funds actually did.


I'm guessing one will do well, one will do poorly, and one will do middling. I have no idea which ones those will be. :)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5664

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article is so bad, including plainly factually incorrect information that I am going to try and find the time to write a blog on it, in the investment porn category is what this is. Larry +100!!! He lost me at the subtitle for the article: "Near-term market conditions don't look good ...&...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3467

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

I tilt to small and value, but ignore momentum--for one thing my portfolio is mostly in taxable or the TSP, and MOM is inherently a not very tax-efficient strategy due to the turnover in which assets have positive momentum. But I don't see why it can't be successfully implemented in the real world,...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3467

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle" -- Momentum

Bogleheads: Momentum has been described as one of the best performing "factors?" One of the first momentum factor funds was FUNDX Upgrader Fund with a 2001 inception. The company describes its strategy this way: Upgrading is the investment approach we developed years ago and have been app...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16833

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

livesoft wrote:^Clearly, everyone should join the military and not get drummed out by doing well in it.


Good idea. Ideally everyone should make Captain/Colonel.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16833

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

I would ilke to see a report from millennials on their parents who are retired or retiring now. I'd like to see millennials ask their parents how much they saved and invested every year so that they could reach this stage of their lives "retired" or "retiring now." I will bet th...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3467

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

baw To me the conclusion is simple and obvious, since no one can know which factor(s) will do well in the future the prudent strategy is clearly to diversify across the factors that meet the criteria of being persistent, pervasive, robust, implementable and have intuitive reasons to believe you are...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3467

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

"The fickle factors of finance" has a nice ring to it. :) More seriously, looking at recent decades (ending in 0), at least one of the three "original" F-F risk factors (beta, size, value) has been rewarded in each decade, and at least one has not been rewarded. Obviously which o...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5255

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

If you eliminate the first week, there's really no difference. Maybe something to do with the start of the fund and appropriating the large influx of cash from investors moving into the fund? Either way, it's likely there will be no significant difference going forward. Even if you eliminate the fi...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5255

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

Comparing Fidelity Total International Index Fund - Premium Class (FTIPX) Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTIAX) at morningstar.com, since it's inception 7 months ago FTIPX trails VTIAX by 1.6%!!!!! That's terrible!! I really don't trust any of these companies other th...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3467

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

However, broad market index funds are not fickle. They have done exactly what I have expected them to do, year after year, rain or shine. (OK, in 2002 Vanguard Total Bond made 8.82% while the index made 10.75%, and in Fidelity Spartan U.S. Bond Index made 5.39% while the index made 6.97%... that so...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5255

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

I believe the bid/ask spread issue relates to the shares the fund buys and sells in the underlying companies it owns. Every share in a mutual fund's holdings must be bought on the open market. Yes, but this is likely to make things more problematic for a bigger fund--there will be more market impact.
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).
Replies: 47
Views: 5255

Re: Fidelity cuts index fund fees (but returns are lower).

I'm a little confused about Taylor's original post. Since all the Fidelity funds have only traditional "open end" share classes and not ETF shares, how is the bid-ask spread an issue? Aside: the ETF share class is probably the major reason why the Vanguard index funds tend not to distribut...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 09, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 117
Views: 17766

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

While I never got to know Lee personally, I have always greatly enjoyed his posts. I always found them thoughtful, informative, and invariably worth reading, even when I didn't completely agree with him. Thank you, "Old Meph," for sharing your wisdom and insights, and may your posts contin...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Maxing out SIMPLE IRA
Replies: 7
Views: 468

Re: Maxing out SIMPLE IRA

My understanding is that for a SIMPLE IRA it works somewhat different than 401(k)s, TSP, etc. For a 401(k), the employer match is calculated for each pay period, so if you max it out after six months you get no employer match for the second half of the year. :( For a SIMPLE IRA, the match seems to b...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset location of US & Internatl Equity?
Replies: 4
Views: 366

Re: Asset location of US & Internatl Equity?

As for the wash sale issue, it's actually worse than a normal wash sale--if you sell at a loss in a taxable account and buy in a retirement account, then the loss gets permanently erased, rather than just deferred. :( I've tended to deliberately hold different funds in taxable and retirement account...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 8.5% for 2016. Can I do better????
Replies: 27
Views: 4650

Re: 8.5% for 2016. Can I do better????

A lot of what your return is in a particular year just depends on how each asset class happens to perform. For example, anybody who happened to have a lot of international equities looked like a dunce in 2016, anybody who had all their equities in the U.S. looked like a genius. In 2017 it could be t...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds
Replies: 8
Views: 1208

Re: Vanguard Tax Exempt Bonds

Looking at Intermediate Tax-exempt vs. Total Bond Market, IT TE has lagged in performance over the last 12 months, but that was due to prices not going up as much in the first half of 2016, not due to a bigger drop in the second half of the year. IT TE has 8.5 years average maturity, 5.1 years avera...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Index Returns
Replies: 20
Views: 2913

Re: Vanguard International Index Returns

I'm quite sure that Mr. Bogle's decision not to invest in international equities has nothing at all to do with their performance over the last 5 or 10 years. What he has said is that he doesn't feel that holding international equities is necessary for an adequately-diversified portfolio, and that th...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 07, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.
Replies: 52
Views: 5985

Re: Value investing: you must pay for your lunch -- sometimes a lot.

The more I stare at the chart, the less meaningful it seems. What is meant by "drawdown"? I normally take the term to mean that you start out with a portfolio of a certain size, and need to withdraw a fixed amount of money at regular intervals. So if returns are unfavorable, the portfolio ...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 06, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Slicing Total Stock Market Index Fund Hurts Tax-Efficiency
Replies: 11
Views: 1153

Re: Slicing Total Stock Market Index Fund Hurts Tax-Efficiency

I'm a little confused as to what is being discussed in this thread. The title implies it's tax efficiency in the literal sense--if I hold Large value, large growth, etc. instead of TSM in a taxable portfolio, I will have larger distributions on which to pay taxes each year for the same underlying ho...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many $ to self fund long term care?
Replies: 73
Views: 5131

Re: How many $ to self fund long term care?

But if you have a 40% chance of entering a nursing home, and the cost of your stay is $X, you need to have a plan to come up with $X in case you enter a nursing home, not 40% of X. But if you have a 20% chance of entering a nursing home, and the cost of your stay is $X, you need to have a plan to c...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 05, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How many $ to self fund long term care?
Replies: 73
Views: 5131

Re: How many $ to self fund long term care?

... 1) It only includes people that actually go into a nursing home and many people never go into one . ... But you see, we're not trying to fund the average of all people. What happens to many is not necessarily what happens to us personally. I, individually , could be among the ones who does go i...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Academic Research Doesn't Always Make Grade in Real World"
Replies: 47
Views: 3855

Re: "Academic Research Doesn't Always Make Grade in Real World"

If you assume all investment returns are symmetric, and ignore skew, you fail to account for the real-world behavior. You also can conclude, falsely, that investors who are rationally avoiding negatively skewed portfolios are making behavioral errors. They would be errors if no on cared about negat...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max It Out Tomorrow [your IRA]
Replies: 116
Views: 10237

Re: Max It Out Tomorrow

I thought maybe they were funding the IRA with money invested in a taxable account Yes, they should have been fully invested already with that money in a taxable account, so they should have sold a last week to have the cash available to contribute to the IRA. Or, depending on the size of the taxab...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Max It Out Tomorrow [your IRA]
Replies: 116
Views: 10237

Re: Max It Out Tomorrow

I appreciate Graham's larger point of continuing to invest through severe downturns.

But...how did one invest in the S&P 500 in 1929??? :beer
by baw703916
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1919

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

whodidntante wrote:It's possible the fund had a large outflow and was forced to sell appreciated holdings to meet redemptions.


Another reason to love ETFs (and even the ETF haters on this board should appreciate Vanguard's ETF share class, as it helps Vanguard avoid this problem)
by baw703916
Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1919

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

100% of my 403(b) is invested in SVSPX. I guess I shouldn't look at my account. I'll peek at it when I leave my current place of employment. :beer It shouldn't be an issue in a retirement account, since the distribution doesn't create any taxes--you are only taxed upon withdrawal. Assuming the fund...
by baw703916
Sun Dec 18, 2016 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?
Replies: 15
Views: 1919

Re: SVSPX, -6.83% on Friday?

It appears that the distribution was capital gains, not dividends. Which makes sense, because the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is nowhere near that high. The fund seems to distribute dividends quarterly, and capital gains annually: http://beta.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/SVSPX/quote.html Fortuna...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 17, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Can Be More Dangerous Than Stocks??
Replies: 31
Views: 3763

Re: Bonds Can Be More Dangerous Than Stocks??

A question about bonds.Say someone has 1 million in total bond and retires needing income from that of 2000 a month.High inflation is rampant and the fund's nav is sinking like a rock.If the retiree is just taking the interest needed monthly over a long period,does it matter if the monthly interest...

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