Search found 6474 matches

by baw703916
Sun May 21, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5155

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

I think that buying U.S. Treasuries is somewhat different. Since about 1930, the US$ has been acknowledged as the world's reserve currency, and Treasuries are the only way to own that currency without credit risk, since they're issued by the entity that controls the currency. I suppose it may be use...
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5155

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

But the fact that many investors choose to invest in U.S. markets is reflected in the market caps of the U.S. vs. other markets. So an investor following market weights will have a larger proportion invested in the U.S. if the world consensus is to invest in the U.S.
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5155

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

Good thing we have the real Jack Bogle! IOW, good thing the real Jack Bogle has had his home country bias directed fortuitously. So if a Brazilian investor looks at all of the evidence and choose to invest primarily in the U.S. market, that's not home country bias, but if Bogle, Buffett, and countl...
by baw703916
Sat May 20, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel
Replies: 65
Views: 5155

Re: "Stocks, Bonds and Future Returns" by Prof. Jeremy Siegel

IlliniDave wrote:
Good thing we have the real Jack Bogle!


IOW, good thing the real Jack Bogle has had his home country bias directed fortuitously.
by baw703916
Fri May 19, 2017 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4528

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Couldn't this article more accurately be titled "Why actively-managed value investing has disappointed"?
by baw703916
Sat May 13, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Old Habits Can Sabotage Retirement
Replies: 51
Views: 7045

Re: How Old Habits Can Sabotage Retirement

I think some people are just psychologically wired to be savers, and others, spenders. I'd say that spenders predominate in most of U.S. society. Not sure to what extent there are differences between countries/cultures. On bogleheads, savers predominate--I think I'm pretty safe in making this claim,...
by baw703916
Mon May 08, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread
Replies: 48
Views: 8163

Re: Seattle Area Chapter Meetings - Master Thread

Meetings in Seattle would be great. I'm not sure I have a suggestion for a venue. Most anywhere downtown or north of downtown could work for me.
by baw703916
Sun May 07, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY BIRTHDAY MR. BOGLE: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early
Replies: 68
Views: 2848

Re: For Mr. Bogle: Let's Get The Party Started One Day Early

Happy Birthday!! Hope you had a great time in Omaha this weekend.

Brad
by baw703916
Sat May 06, 2017 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self fund LTC
Replies: 19
Views: 1351

Re: How much to self fund LTC

Is there a numerical value that anyone can equate to "substantial assets"? $1.5M? $3M? $5M? $10M?

What source of advice exist for this question?
by baw703916
Sat May 06, 2017 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self fund LTC
Replies: 19
Views: 1351

Re: How much to self fund LTC

Thanks, but I'm really not sure how much I like that idea, or if I would qualify in spite of relaxed underwriting. Assume it's just going to be my pile o'assets, without any third party involvement. :)
by baw703916
Sat May 06, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much to self fund LTC
Replies: 19
Views: 1351

Re: How much to self fund LTC

So can someone provide a number? I'm in my 50's, but wouldn't qualify medically for LTCi (it wouldn't have been possible at any point in time, so not a matter of waiting too long). I don't have a spouse or children...so how much do I need before I can feel confident about being able to afford an arb...
by baw703916
Fri May 05, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Commandments" by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 24
Views: 3226

Re: "Ten Commandments" by Jonathan Clements

Too bad you can't take out a mortgage to buy stock! Well, actually you can (BUT you have to own a house first :) ). Just set up a HELOC take out some money, and invest it. I've done it, with varying degrees of success. But the reaction of the board will be overwhelmingly negative. So if you do that...
by baw703916
Fri May 05, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Commandments" by Jonathan Clements
Replies: 24
Views: 3226

Re: "Ten Commandments" by Jonathan Clements

It's worth reading the comments--there's a good dialogue on traditional vs. Roth IRA/401k between commenters and Mr. Clements.
by baw703916
Thu May 04, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Index Funds A Farce?
Replies: 28
Views: 3636

Re: Value Index Funds A Farse?

Kok is chief investment officer for the developed markets team at RS Investments, which specializes in actively managed equity strategies . Well, he certainly is going to have an unbiased take on passive funds! I'd believe every word he says, and pay the higher fees his funds charge. (Just kidding!...
by baw703916
Thu May 04, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. SEC approves request to list quadruple-leveraged ETFs
Replies: 27
Views: 2143

Re: U.S. SEC approves request to list quadruple-leveraged ETFs

I'm hoping for a 5x fund to come out--one that would have gone bust in one day in the 1987 crash. :twisted:

Seriously, don't buy these...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to consider Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 38
Views: 2764

Re: When to concider Long Term Care Insurance

There is also the issue of the financial well-being of the insurance company. The purchaser is potentially multi-decade to commitment to a particular company for an insurance product that companies as a group haven't been very successful at pricing and which has gotten them into pretty serious troub...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to consider Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 38
Views: 2764

Re: When to concider Long Term Care Insurance

Approximately how much did this policy cost? What were the policy limits? What company offered the policy? I'm guessing that the policy cost on the order of $2,000 a month and that policy limits were on the order of $300,000. In the case referenced, the client deposited 300,000 with the insurance c...
by baw703916
Thu Apr 27, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"
Replies: 37
Views: 4342

Re: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"

The R2000 was pretty notorious for front running--I think they've now changed the construction to minimize it. Basically, in the Olde Days, it was stocks 1001-3000 by market cap as of a certain date. It was reconstituted once a year, and everybody knew when that would happen. So you just had to see ...
by baw703916
Thu Apr 27, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"
Replies: 37
Views: 4342

"ETFs Are 'Weapons of Mass Destruction'"

I got a good chuckle out of this article which appeared on Bloomberg this morning: Exchange-traded funds are “weapons of mass destruction” that have distorted stock prices and created the potential for a market selloff, according to the managers of the FPA Capital Fund. “When the world decides that ...
by baw703916
Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50% of my "number" today
Replies: 20
Views: 4249

Re: Reached 50% of my "number" today

Of course, today the markets are down somewhat, so I'm probably no longer about 50%!

I guess I should panic sell and start market timing! 8-)

(just kidding!)
by baw703916
Thu Apr 20, 2017 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reached 50% of my "number" today
Replies: 20
Views: 4249

Reached 50% of my "number" today

FWIW, I reached one-third a little over 4 years ago.

Just thought this was an appropriate time to say thanks to all the Bogleheads who have given me good advice over the years.
by baw703916
Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2291

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

I wrote that post while thinking about callable munis, while the actual question was about MBS. My bad! For an issuer of munis there is an asymmetric risk. If say a bond has a 30 year maturity but is callable after 20 years, the issuer will only refinance if the market interest rates are lower than ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 36630

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Thank you, Larry, for all your contributions to this forum, and for all that you have taught me, and many others.

I look forward to your future books.

Brad
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment
Replies: 31
Views: 3209

Re: everywhere we are encouraged to trade and to our detriment

I was just thinking about progress in our "modern times." This happened in the early 1960`s. From the second quote, I don't think this can be blamed on modernity or technology. There have always been, and will always be, people encouraging you to do things that are in their best interest,...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 19, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration
Replies: 32
Views: 2291

Re: Bond fund Maturity vs Duration

Especially with mortgage related bonds, prepayment can be a significant contributor to the lower duration vs maturity. So that risk is already baked into the duration? Well, not exactly. :) If interest rates drop then prepayment and refinancing is likely, but if interest rates rise it isn't. So it'...
by baw703916
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3497

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

Wow. It sounds like the investors who stuck with the PIMCO Total Return Fund and didn't bail, had the last laugh. Those who left PIMCO and went to the new Bill Gross fund at Janus must be feeling pretty stupid right now. I don't know, I wouldn't lose that much sleep knowing my $10K underperformed b...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 16, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]
Replies: 12
Views: 2486

Re: Zweig: The Expensive Ingredient of Cheap ETFs [Price vs. NAV]

Well, if you really want to make sure you buy for less than NAV, there's always closed end funds! ;)
by baw703916
Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1469

Re: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds

I'm not sure why this thread went down the rabbit hole of whether or not REITs are good things to invest in... That wasn't the question, it was whether they are equities. And low correlation, while nice if you can get it, doesn't have anything to do with the question. REITs are equities, because sha...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1469

Re: final, last dumb question: REITS vs Equity Funds

REITs are equities, albeit a special category with some unusual characteristics.

But if you're doing a breakdown of your portfolio into equity and bond percentages, put them in equities.
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financing purchase of new home prior to selling old one
Replies: 7
Views: 609

Re: Financing purchase of new home prior to selling old one

Do you have any taxable investments without too much in the way of capital gains? I moved a couple years ago, and had several months of owning two houses. I quickly realized that getting a place in Seattle pretty much required a cash offer, and so I maxed out my HELOC and sold a bunch of stuff in my...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: You can never go "home" - retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 12496

Re: You can never go "home" - retirement

To go home again, I'd have to afford a house in the Bay Area. :moneybag
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - The Math Behind Futility
Replies: 8
Views: 1577

Re: Bloomberg - The Math Behind Futility

OK, this is about "What" to own and not "When" to own it. Suppose I only buy VTI and just market-time buying and selling? Then this paper does not apply. There must be some other paper that does apply though. I don't have a reference, but the idea is that the outsize gains of th...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 11, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 Fund Portfolio: FTIPX or FSGDX ?
Replies: 13
Views: 912

Re: 3 Fund Portfolio: FTIPX or FSGDX ?

Agree that for a 3 Fund, FTIPX is more diversified, as it includes small caps. It's similar to the comparison between Vanguard's Total International (similar to FTIPX) vs. FTSE all-world ex-US large cap (similar to FSGDX). Most people would say Total International is preferable, but that FTSE large ...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??
Replies: 23
Views: 1838

Re: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??

Veiex/Vemax, the Vanguard emerging market index fund, invests in China A-shares, which have frontier market status in the MSCI taxonomy. But does that actually give you exposure to anything different? I realize that the different share classes in China don't all move in lockstep for various reasons...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Edge Score / Power Rating
Replies: 3
Views: 385

Re: Market Edge Score / Power Rating

Since I wasn't familiar with the Schwab tickers: SCHB=broad US market SCHF=international developed SCHE=Emerging markets So a 100% equity portfolio, with 20% international and EM at about market weight relative to international developed. With no bonds, it a bit aggressive, but not at all unreasonab...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2915

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

Here is what I have in my Roth DGS (EM small dividend) 20% DLS (Intl. developed small dividend) 18% DEM (EM largecap dividend) 18% RZV (US small value) 16% VNQI (Intl. RE) 13% VNQ (REITs) 9% LTPZ (>10 year TIPS) 5% SPY call options ($185 strike price, March 2018 expiration) 3% As many might guess, t...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2915

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

I'm somewhat confused. I also am at a high marginal tax rate which I fully expect to be just as high in the future. I have no concern about heirs as I intend to leave tax deferred leftovers to charity. Equity in taxable, sloughing LTCG's and qualified dividends, are taxed at favorable rates. Muni's...
by baw703916
Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie
Replies: 30
Views: 2915

Re: Roth IRA - Using Risk to Grow the Pie

I'd recommend putting as many aggressive equity investments in the Roth, and dialing back on the risk in the rest of the portfolio to compensate. So things like international small, emerging market small, small value, etc. I'm not sure what you are saying on leveraged ETFs. I don't recommend them--t...
by baw703916
Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??
Replies: 23
Views: 1838

Re: VG has any funds for Frontier Markets??

Well, at least FM (the ETF) does invest in frontier markets. Some "frontier market" funds are a mixture of Emerging and Frontier, which means that the EM part of the portfolio costs a lot more than it should.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Continuing to Invest in Muni Bond Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1485

Re: Continuing to Invest in Muni Bond Funds

After my muni funds dropped in value, I sold them in December at a short term loss, then bought them back a couple months later. That gave me a nice tax break for 2016.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: MAGI above Roth cutoff by $103, what to do?
Replies: 22
Views: 2257

Re: MAGI above Roth cutoff by $103, what to do?

The math does get a little complicated, but brokers are set up to handle this. I did this last year after making my Roth contribution at the beginning of the year like a good Boglehead, then having my MAGI be higher than expected due to taking some capital gains in connection with a move. One thing ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient
Replies: 22
Views: 1951

Re: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient

Is there a reason not to buy the Vanguard TSM ETF (VTI) or Admiral Shares (VTSAX)? just because I have a fidelity account and I think I would have to pay extra to get vanguard funds. In that case the Vanguard mutual fund shares probably would have a higher purchase fee than you'd want to pay. But t...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient
Replies: 22
Views: 1951

Re: Is Fidelity total stock market fund (FSTVX) tax efficient

In general, Fidelity index funds have tended to distribute capital gains more often than corresponding Vanguard funds--probably a consequence of there not being an ETF share class. This may be less of an issue for TSM than for e.g. Extended Market Index, which has distributed quite a bit of capital ...
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 2013

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

2. U.S. Stocks don't give enough international exposure.
by baw703916
Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Muni Bonds in a Taxable Account
Replies: 14
Views: 1441

Re: Muni Bonds in a Taxable Account

I think it's fine to have some tax-exempt bonds in taxable. This proved very useful for me a couple years ago, as I was moving and figured out that given the real estate market in Seattle, I was best served by putting together a cash offer on a house here. Having muni funds that I could cash in with...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Re: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular

RZG is almost a micro-cap fund. According to M*, it has an average market cap of $1333M, and holds 48% micro-cap stock. (Interestingly, both RZG and the value analogue RZV have lower market cap than the S&P 600 index. It is more extreme for RZV, which has an $800M average market cap and 79% mic...
by baw703916
Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Let's talk about small growth: RZG in particular

According to the conventional wisdom, small growth is the black hole of investing: it has tended to perform worse than the sum of its tilting components. Larry has speculated that in part this may have to do with IPOs often being included in this style box. The Guggenheim small value fund RZV has be...
by baw703916
Sun Apr 02, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?
Replies: 19
Views: 1503

Re: Do Any Factor Investors Worry About Skating Where The Puck Was?

Schadenfreude-y posts on this board (e.g. "SG has beaten SV over the last 10 years!") make great contrarian indicators about where the puck is liable to be in the future.
by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clearing customs in Seattle
Replies: 20
Views: 1647

Re: Clearing customs in Seattle

SEA has warned people at various times over the last year that security lines can be long. I haven't experienced that myself, and usually during peak travel intervals (Thanksgiving, Christmas). And maybe they've figured out how to expedite things a little by now. Still 3 hours 35 minutes gives quite...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?
Replies: 24
Views: 2670

Re: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?

I did use a Heloc on my old house as part of a way to make a cash offer for my current house. I was selling the old house in a few months anyway, so the higher interest rate didn't matter in any significant way. And it was obvious that absent a cash offer it was going to be challenging to buy a hous...

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