Search found 6254 matches

by baw703916
Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!
Replies: 69
Views: 3538

Re: Take the Verb Tense Pledge!

What benefit would I have received if I were to have taken said pledge?

(hmm, I rather like that phrasing, I think I'll try to use the past subjunctive more often!) :)
by baw703916
Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF regret
Replies: 26
Views: 2275

Re: ETF regret

Toons wrote:Who in the world looks at mutual fund NAV prices after the purchase is made.


Tax loss harvesters.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2504

Re: How do ETFs work?

Last I checked my Vanguard fund prospectus it shows that my Total Stock Market index fund had ~30% in embedded/unrealized capital gains while (if I remember), the total international index fund had unrealized losses. After writing this, the unrealized gain scenario worried me enough that I just wen...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 117
Views: 6791

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Of course one point about the example in the OP is that the 10 year annualized return from 1996 looks very different than the 6 year or the 12 year annualized return. So this looks too starting and ending point dependent to be meaningful. Here are the year to end of 2015 annualized returns for each...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2504

Re: How do ETFs work?

What year was that distribution? In particular, does it post-date the ETF share class? 1998, 1999, 2000 are some years when there were capital gains distributions. It is hard to find a link that shows this, but it can be discerned from looking at both a morningstar.com chart which can show dividend...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2504

Re: How do ETFs work?

Regarding ETF shares, there was just a thread yesterday comparing Fidelity's extended market index fund, which tends to throw off capital gains distributions, and Vanguard's equivalent fund, which doesn't. One difference is the Vanguard fund has ETF shares and the Fidelity fund doesn't. Once again,...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 31, 2016 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do ETFs work?
Replies: 53
Views: 2504

Re: How do ETFs work?

Regarding ETF shares, there was just a thread yesterday comparing Fidelity's extended market index fund, which tends to throw off capital gains distributions, and Vanguard's equivalent fund, which doesn't. One difference is the Vanguard fund has ETF shares and the Fidelity fund doesn't.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The failure of valuation predictions
Replies: 117
Views: 6791

Re: The failure of valuation predictions

Of course one point about the example in the OP is that the 10 year annualized return from 1996 looks very different than the 6 year or the 12 year annualized return. So this looks too starting and ending point dependent to be meaningful.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FSEVX Distribution [Fidelity Spartan Extended Market]
Replies: 25
Views: 1207

Re: FSEVX Distribution

More precisely, all of Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund's distributions were dividends (which are unavoidable unless the fund doesn't own any dividend-paying stocks). There were no capital gains distributions for the Vanguard fund for 2015: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0...
by baw703916
Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are You Holding Your Assets in the Right Types of Accounts?"
Replies: 5
Views: 1521

Re: "Are You Holding Your Assets in the Right Types of Accounts?"

For many years I've held tax-exempt bonds in my taxable accounts as well as taxable bonds in my tax-advantaged accounts. This year I moved and for various reasons bought my new house a few months before selling the old one. Having those tax-exempt bonds that I could sell for the house purchase witho...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-2 and custodian's Form 5498 disagree on 2015 contributions
Replies: 4
Views: 279

Re: W-2 and custodian's Form 5498 disagree on 2015 contributions

But if deductions and contributions are different, this raises two questions: Are the IRS limits for retirement plans (e.g. $18K for a 401k) based on contributions or deductions (did I not max out my allowable contributions in 2015)? If I didn't contribute the amount deducted from my end of year pay...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should Long Term Care Insurance be part of my portfolio ?
Replies: 38
Views: 2284

Re: Should Long Term Care Insurance be part of my portfolio ?

In general I'm not a big fan of LTCi. However in this case I would pick #2. The fact that your policy has an unlimited duration makes it worth keeping in case a worst case scenario were to occur. In fact, it's the lack of the unlimited duration feature that causes me to dislike most LTCi being sold ...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-2 and custodian's Form 5498 disagree on 2015 contributions
Replies: 4
Views: 279

W-2 and custodian's Form 5498 disagree on 2015 contributions

I have a Simple IRA through my current employer. I received the information on 2015 contributions today from Fido (the custodian). The 2015 contribution amount on the Form 5498 on Fidelity's mailing disagrees with the amount shown on my W-2. Specifically, the 5498 is missing the Simple contribution ...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 177
Views: 9028

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don't realize it at the time.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 24, 2016 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6380

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

I'm a little surprised nobody seems to have mentioned the real return on 5 year (or pick your favorite shortish duration) TIPS as an indicator of good times vs. bad times. Lately short term TIPS yields have been very low or even negative (bad times). I would argue that that is an objective measure o...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 17, 2016 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an Emerging Markets "factor" pop out of factor analysis for international stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1420

Re: Does an Emerging Markets "factor" pop out of factor analysis for international stocks?

But everyone breaks out the US as a special class. What's the justification for that? What Peru and Qatar have in common is that they have much smaller capitalizations with much less diversity of industries, and historically much more volatility than the UK or Japan. So they're riskier--that to my m...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 17, 2016 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does an Emerging Markets "factor" pop out of factor analysis for international stocks?
Replies: 26
Views: 1420

Re: Does an Emerging Markets "factor" pop out of factor analysis for international stocks?

I would expect EM to have a beta higher than 1, rather than an independent risk factor. Although since EM in general tends to have lower multiples than DM, they may be as a class somewhat valuey.

Why do you ask, Nisi?
by baw703916
Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lottery Win...Could a Boglehead handle it?
Replies: 79
Views: 4535

Re: Lottery Win...Could a Boglehead handle it?

But I never buy "investments" with negative expected returns, so I'm not going to be the winner. In this case given pot size it does have a positive expected pre-tax return. Take the probability of winning x the payout. 1/292M x $900M = about $3. Yep $3. So $1 net after cost of ticket. Su...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lottery Win...Could a Boglehead handle it?
Replies: 79
Views: 4535

Re: Lottery Win...Could a Boglehead handle it?

I think I could handle it, albeit the hassles would annoy me. I wouldn't even quit my job (seriously).

But I never buy "investments" with negative expected returns, so I'm not going to be the winner.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough advisors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 814

Re: Not enough advisors ?

If I worked in EJ corporate, I would have signed up to provide materials as well. I could start influencing my future clients before they had even heard of passive index funds. The kids doing this training will be asked to help sell to their parents, siblings, classmates, and classmates' parents in...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16082

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Somewhat related: the concept of a "Total Return" fund (e.g. PIMCO's). I completely agree with Larry that total return is the only thing that matters. So shouldn't every fund be viewed by its investors as a total return fund? What else is there besides total return?
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Not enough advisors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 814

Re: Not enough advisors ?

I'm disappointed that a noted engineering school like Purdue doesn't realize that Robo-advisers are a better and certainly a more cost-effective approach than the local Edward Jones office. :wink:
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets
Replies: 29
Views: 3809

Re: Paul Merriman's Sound Investing advise in this and all markets

It appears that what has dragged down the 10-year performance of the Ultimate Buy and Hold portfolio isn't the tilting to Value, small, and REITs (although they haven't improved things much either), but that it contains 40% bonds , and substantial international holdings (in a period with low interes...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.
Replies: 82
Views: 13726

Re: I just lost $200,000 last week. Please help me.

My advice: 1) You have made some recent investments and have (I presume) a large unrealized loss (unrealized, because you haven't sold the investments yet). It may be advantageous, tax wise- to sell them and realize the loss--plus as you now realize, individual stocks aren't something you really wan...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 09, 2016 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google results bring up other people with your name - job search implications?
Replies: 23
Views: 1708

Re: Google results bring up other people with your name - job search implications?

I just googled myself and discovered that I'm an Ameriprise financial advisor. :twisted:

Good thing I didn't have to file a formal application to become a Boglehead.
by baw703916
Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 12916

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

This problem of this year being the worst four days in history to begin a new year could be avoided by using a different calendar. :) I propose the Jewish calendar, in which the New year falls in Sept./Oct. (the exact date determined by when the New moon occurs). Curiously, big stock market crashes ...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"
Replies: 31
Views: 4737

Re: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"

Well, whether by design or fortuitously, you seem to have done a lot of things right! :)
by baw703916
Sat Dec 19, 2015 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"
Replies: 31
Views: 4737

Re: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"

:thumbsup That would make a good signature line. I would throw in one word after need and ability to take risk - willingness (risk tolerance). Thanks Fallible! You have to my permission to use it if you would like. :) (Larry S should be credited for the "need, ability, and willingness" pa...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 19, 2015 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"
Replies: 31
Views: 4737

Re: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"

I do often envy the people who invest on autopilot and don't pay attention. For nearly 30 years I was on autopilot, fortunately, with Vanguard index funds. (I read a couple of articles about John Bogle being a pariah on The Street years ago, and I thought I should join his ship.) But a few months a...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 19, 2015 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"
Replies: 31
Views: 4737

Re: Why Bogleheads "Stay-The-Course"

So it appears that in terms of losses, plummet > plunge > fall. Decline seems to mean in the same range as fall. :) Does 1929-33 has its own verb?
by baw703916
Fri Dec 18, 2015 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Large Stock Market Decline Today - What's going on?
Replies: 46
Views: 4126

Re: Large Stock Market Decline Today - What's going on?

More sellers than buyers at the previous price.
by baw703916
Thu Dec 17, 2015 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seattle-what can we really afford?
Replies: 42
Views: 3643

Re: Seattle-what can we really afford?

As freebeer says, where the job will be is likely to determine which areas are reasonable to live from a commuting standpoint. Seattle isn't really that big a metro area, but there are a lot of geographical barriers that limit where you can put roads (and a rail system is only now being built), so d...
by baw703916
Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"
Replies: 90
Views: 7340

Re: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"

Mr Market (Ms Market, really guys!) Actually Mr. Market may be more appropriate after all. In Benjamin Graham's depiction, Mr. Market was all impulsivity and no self-control, which studies have shown tends do describe male investors (non-Boglehead ones, at any rate) more than female investors. :)
by baw703916
Sun Dec 13, 2015 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Military Retirement System
Replies: 80
Views: 6774

Re: New Military Retirement System

Leaving aside the larger issue of the relative merits of the new vs. old system, it's clear that the important message to people under the new system will be "put at least 5% of your salary into the TSP, if at all possible." There is quite a bit of room for improvement as according to the ...
by baw703916
Sun Dec 13, 2015 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"
Replies: 90
Views: 7340

Re: Should I follow Jack Bogle in "I don't do International"

I think the OP should read through the various threads on this topic and maybe this document from Vanguard: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icriecr.pdf Then make one's own decision. You shouldn't invest in international (or not) based on what Mr. Bogle or anyone else does, you should decide based ...
by baw703916
Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The psychology of high deductible health plans
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: The psychology of high deductible health plans

I'm not sure the behavior is really irrational. If the price of everything in healthcare is unknowable in advance, then the only way to be sure of saving money is to cut one's consumption of everything, across the board. Which is what people are doing. Of course normally the reduced demand would ten...
by baw703916
Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The psychology of high deductible health plans
Replies: 102
Views: 6670

Re: The psychology of high deductible health plans

A more realistic example of Klangfool's anecdote as applied to healthcare would be the following: There is a pack of 10 "chicken nuggets" on one side of the menu, 4 "chicken tenders", on another part, and 6 "chicken nibbles" somewhere else. The person at the counter can...
by baw703916
Sun Nov 29, 2015 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Stay The Course”
Replies: 20
Views: 2634

Re: “Stay The Course”

But if your equities in a taxable account drop in value, you should be on the lookout for tax-loss harvesting opportunities. So not necessarily complete inaction.
by baw703916
Sun Nov 22, 2015 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 25411

Re: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020

Well, it did reach 1430 by 2020--well before 2020 in fact.

So, I guess he was right? :beer
by baw703916
Sun Nov 01, 2015 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond ETF in taxable account
Replies: 2
Views: 208

Re: Bond ETF in taxable account

The rules of thumb about tax-efficient asset structuring tend to be based on US tax laws, in which bond interest is taxed at ordinary income rates, and dividends are taxed when paid, but at a lower rate. So the first consideration is how the tax laws in Australia handle bond interest, dividends, cap...
by baw703916
Sat Oct 31, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard sued for [failing to charge market rates to and then paying taxes on services to its mutual funds]
Replies: 776
Views: 107734

Re: Vanguard sued for [failing to charge market rates to and then paying taxes on services to its mutual funds]

The Spartan Funds aren't related entities? Really? Yeah, I know the SEC rules and all, but the definition of related entities for tax purposes may be quite different than for regulation of financial markets. If the argument hinges on proving that every mutual fund out there except Vanguards' isn't a...
by baw703916
Fri Oct 30, 2015 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Glamour stocks and value tilt
Replies: 26
Views: 2073

Re: Glamour stocks and value tilt

There are two different stories often used by the 'Value' fans, sometimes on this board they confuse their arguments and combine them although they're clearly in conflict with each other, despite both believing 'Value' has higher expected returns. One story is that the market is efficiently and per...
by baw703916
Sun Oct 25, 2015 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14196

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

So the next 10 years will be a tough decade, as opposed to the last 15 which were all rainbows and unicorns? OK, whatever. I agree with the approach of not assuming future returns will be fantastic, and being financially prepared for a baddish outcome. But I don't think the prediction itself has any...
by baw703916
Sun Oct 18, 2015 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filing Taxes (2015) after moving in June from Ohio to Florida ?
Replies: 23
Views: 1301

Re: Filing Taxes (2015) after moving in June from Ohio to Florida ?

Where were you between June 6 and June 10? When did you physically travel to FL?
by baw703916
Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure
Replies: 90
Views: 9528

Re: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure

Encouraging that CA got off the "no go" list. :)
by baw703916
Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure
Replies: 90
Views: 9528

Re: Dr Bernstein: Limit Muni Bond Exposure

The issue isn't default; it's "Ilmanen Risk": bad returns in bad times. Just for chuckles, take a look at what happened to the Vanguard muni bond funds did the first 10 months of 2008. You can easily do this with with Yahoo finance. Then look at what treasurys did during the same period. ...
by baw703916
Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power
Replies: 23
Views: 1402

Re: Study on higher moments of volatility and explanatory power

I can't find the data, but my intuition says junk bonds have negative skew. Consider that they are both callable (limited upside) and carry the potential to default (high downside). That's true of all bonds, junk or otherwise. unless you're buying them at a big discount to par, they can't return mo...
by baw703916
Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is my allowable SIMPLE IRA contribution for 2015?
Replies: 6
Views: 521

Re: What is my allowable SIMPLE IRA contribution for 2015?

Thanks everyone. I had been pretty sure that the TSP, 401k, etc. all added together to a combined limit. But I hadn't realized until a few days ago that the SIMPLE contribution limit was lower than the TSP/401k limit. (Why the heck is that, anyway?). So I wasn't sure whether the combined limit for S...

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