Search found 6426 matches

by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Clearing customs in Seattle
Replies: 17
Views: 1057

Re: Clearing customs in Seattle

SEA has warned people at various times over the last year that security lines can be long. I haven't experienced that myself, and usually during peak travel intervals (Thanksgiving, Christmas). And maybe they've figured out how to expedite things a little by now. Still 3 hours 35 minutes gives quite...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?
Replies: 24
Views: 2343

Re: Is there any downside to Home Equity line of credit even if we won't use it immediately?

I did use a Heloc on my old house as part of a way to make a cash offer for my current house. I was selling the old house in a few months anyway, so the higher interest rate didn't matter in any significant way. And it was obvious that absent a cash offer it was going to be challenging to buy a hous...
by baw703916
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: small cap value international etf
Replies: 5
Views: 479

Re: small cap value international etf

-VSS is international small, not small value. It may "accidentally" be categorized as value in somebody's listing, but its goal is to mirror international small-caps as a whole, and it does not screen stocks by any value characteristic. -QUSOX is an active traditional mutual fund, not an E...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018-19 Toronto Vanc Sydney Melb Auckland housing crash?
Replies: 8
Views: 1044

Re: 2018-19 Toronto Vanc Sydney Melb Auckland housing crash?

I'm reading this thread with some interest as I live in Seattle, which has an insane housing market at the moment--not sure how much is Asian redirects from Vancouver and how much is IT engineers being hired by Amazon and other local employers.
by baw703916
Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting deeper small-cap value exposure in taxable is almost free
Replies: 24
Views: 2506

Re: Getting deeper small-cap value exposure in taxable is almost free

Good thread, David. You have noticed the same thing I have: while value stocks tend to have higher dividend yields, deep value stocks sometimes don't, and small stocks tend to have lower dividends that large stocks. So SV has one factor (V) which tends to increase tax costs (but not by quite as much...
by baw703916
Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?
Replies: 50
Views: 4213

Re: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?

So I did a quick calculation. Say the hedge funds had decided to coast after jumping out to a big lead, and just tracked the S&P 500 for 2009-2016 (but imposed a 2 and 20 fee structure).

They still would be trailing today, just because of the cumulative fees.
by baw703916
Sat Mar 11, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 3189

Re: SEC Rejects Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF

lack_ey wrote:
Chart for reference:

Image


A pretty dramatic move. If only there were a way to trade on this...maybe an ETF? :wink:
by baw703916
Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Important Bear Market Signal sent
Replies: 19
Views: 3074

Re: Important Bear Market Signal sent

Studies show* that once market signals are publicly identified, they stop working.

Let's hope that's true in this case.




* Which studies? I have no idea. It just sounded good.
by baw703916
Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?
Replies: 50
Views: 4213

Re: How dumb are hedge fund managers?

David Jay wrote:They are not dumb at all. They received 60% of all gains in their funds.

now investors, on the other hand...


That's why I always found the title of the book Hedge Funds for Dummies hilarious. Aren't all hedge funds intended for (rich) dummies, given the 2 and 20 fee structure?
by baw703916
Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.
Replies: 24
Views: 4342

Re: Oh no! The Ohama Titanic Syndrome signal.

nisiprius wrote:Just in case anyone else kept misreading the name "Ohama," it's "Ohama," with an "H", named after one Bill Ohama.


So I guess this thread isn't necessarily going to get locked after all?

I'm not sure how I feel about that.
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Against the Tide, Adviser (Dan Wiener) Succeeds With Vanguard’s Active Fund
Replies: 4
Views: 720

Re: Against the Tide, Adviser Succeeds With Vanguard’s Active Fund

1. If you hope to be in the minority of investors who outperform using active funds, your best chance of doing so is to use funds that have: -a low expense ratio -adequate diversification -minimal style drift all of which describe Vanguard's active funds. 2. The S&P is only the correct benchmark...
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1526

Re: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?

I'm not sure what time period is being considered in the OP, but the 5 year returns don't seem anything to write home about. 3/4/2012 - 3/3/3017 FOCPX: +49.7% OK, this works out to an annualized return of 8.7%--nothing to complain about. But what if you'd just bought an S&P 500 index fund? SPY: ...
by baw703916
Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?
Replies: 21
Views: 1526

Re: Do returns ever justify higher ERs?

This is a large cap growth fund of both US and foreign stocks (small percentage). It focuses on stocks that are on the NASDAQ exchange. So the question, if one wants to invest in NASDAQ-listed stocks for whatever reason, is how this fund has performed relative to the NASDAQ tracking ETF QQQ, which ...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 8:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth milestone reached: $100,000!
Replies: 52
Views: 3903

Re: Net worth milestone reached: $100,000!

Congratulations! The absolute amount of net worth relative to others on the board isn't the important thing (they have different life situations and may have had many more years to accumulate). You've worked very hard to get to this place, and learned a lot of valuable lessons. I'm sure this won't b...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter
Replies: 9
Views: 1341

Re: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter

A couple comments: 1. tax costs are really just another cost, aren't they? The statement that active investors (in aggregate) and passive investors (in aggregate and also individually, if they hold the market portfolio) perform equally before costs isn't negated by taxes. 2. I don't know of any inve...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?
Replies: 4
Views: 398

Re: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?

The cutoff point is $200 to maintain a TSP account. Anything less and your account is closed and you receive a check for the sub $200 balance. If you want to withdraw as much of the Roth portion of your TSP account, first perform an interfund transfer to 100% G and then withdraw all but $200 from y...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?
Replies: 44
Views: 3166

Re: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?

The question is (do not know the answer) about federal employee financial incentives to retire when an agecy needs to downsize. If you provide a lengthy notice of plan to retire, then aren't you risking missing out on a financial incentive to retire since the agency knows you will retire (and get o...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?
Replies: 44
Views: 3166

Re: Should federal employee communicate 18 months to retirement?

I was a Fed for 20 years, and separated a couple years ago. My advice would be, if you are responsible for an important function that requires continuity upon your departure, then 6-8 months notice is probably appropriate so that you can pass on your knowledge to your designated successor. I think 1...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?
Replies: 4
Views: 398

TSP->IRA->TSP to separate Roth portion?

I separated from Federal service a couple years go. I have a TSP account, a few % of which is Roth and the rest pretax. The TSP doesn't let you have a different AA for Roth and traditional, or specifically withdraw one or the other--everything is prorated between the Roth and traditional amounts in ...
by baw703916
Sun Mar 05, 2017 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter
Replies: 9
Views: 1341

Re: issue left unexplained in Warren Bufett's 2017-02-25 letter

Front-running the index is one possibility. Granted, for a total market index, this is likely to only happen in the case of IPOs and delistings for bankruptcy.
by baw703916
Thu Mar 02, 2017 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three-Fund Portfolio Question?
Replies: 9
Views: 1409

Re: Three-Fund Portfolio Question?

What I really want to know is which fund will have the best return in the second 16 years of this century! 8-)
by baw703916
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: "Why ETFs Won't Replace Mutual Funds"
Replies: 45
Views: 3518

Re: Allan Roth: "Why ETFs Won't Replace Mutual Funds"

I have to say, the entire discussion in this thread seems to have completely missed the larger point that Allan Roth is making, namely that "mutual funds" vs. ETFs (ETFs are in fact mutual funds!) doesn't matter nearly as much as low cost, diversification, tax efficiency, etc. I argue the ...
by baw703916
Sat Feb 25, 2017 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett Annual Letter 2016 [Jack Bogle is a hero]
Replies: 69
Views: 5515

Re: Buffett Annual Letter 2016

nisiprius wrote:To say that hedge funds will outperform as long as everything is normal...


I think that more precisely, hedge funds will outperform as long a distributions are normal. :happy
by baw703916
Fri Feb 24, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX now has 0.11% ER [Vanguard Total Int'l Stock, Admiral Class]
Replies: 43
Views: 4603

Re: VTIAX now has 0.11% ER

rtraud wrote:I noticed the reduction too. My Vanguard muni bond funds also ticked down from 0.20% to 0.19%. And, I just graduated to the Admiral shares of their REIT mutual fund, so it's a good day for me, fee-wise.


Actually the Admiral shares on the national muni funds went from 0.12% to 0.09% :)
by baw703916
Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "High conviction investing"
Replies: 26
Views: 1438

Re: "High conviction investing"

If you're trading on insider information, it could be "high conviction" in a couple different senses of the term. :twisted:
by baw703916
Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons
Replies: 15
Views: 1060

Re: Long term treasury ? Pros and Cons

If one is inclined to hold long-term bonds as a counterweight to an equity-heavy portfolio, I'd recommend splitting them between nominal Treasuries and TIPS.
by baw703916
Mon Feb 20, 2017 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are the big things to get right?
Replies: 90
Views: 11068

Re: What are the big things to get right?

It would be wonderful if there were the marriage equivalent of an index fund so you could avoid idiosyncratic risk and compare on the basis of lowest expenses. ;)
by baw703916
Mon Feb 20, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?
Replies: 5
Views: 1267

Re: What does John Bogle think of TIPS?

from this article "...This time, we see that Jack is moving into TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). "In fact, the only investment change I've made in the past few years is a move of about 6% of combined assets from Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index (VBILX) to Vanguard Inf...
by baw703916
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reason to delay using Turbotax to file taxes?
Replies: 13
Views: 1659

Re: Any reason to delay using Turbotax to file taxes?

One reason that it might be good to wait (although it sounds like this might not apply to you) is that brokerages sometimes revise 1099s in terms of what percentage of dividend distributions were qualified, was a distribution a return of capital or a capital gain distribution, etc. This has happened...
by baw703916
Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Iron Law of Valuation
Replies: 24
Views: 2520

Re: The Iron Law of Valuation

And then there's this one. I'll just let Morningstar pick the benchmarks. Source https://s27.postimg.org/o6os1xe9v/Captura_de_pantalla_2017_02_06_a_las_9_27_54_AM.png https://s23.postimg.org/sxxqcakl7/Captura_de_pantalla_2017_02_06_a_las_9_52_08_AM.png Oh wow, HSGFX has gone parabolic! More precise...
by baw703916
Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Costs of the TSP? is it self-sustained?
Replies: 33
Views: 3207

Re: Costs of the TSP? is it self-sustained?

Exactly why I'm about to do a partial withdrawal of two comma TSP, leaving $1000 behind. Rolling over to Fidelity TIRA and Roth IRA, then rolling back six figure TIRA amount to park in the G fund as overall retirement bond allocation. TSP retirement withdrawal options suck, and mandatory Roth RMDs ...
by baw703916
Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary
Replies: 50
Views: 6886

Re: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary

If this documentary is the one that a co-worker of mine was referring to in conversation today, my advice is that if your spouse is sick in bed with the flu and asks for a bucket, don't bring a colander. :)
by baw703916
Thu Feb 02, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Small Company SIMPLE IRA Plan
Replies: 9
Views: 495

Re: Small Company SIMPLE IRA Plan

My employer (eight employees) has a SIMPLE IRA with Fidelity. You have to be a little more judicious in your choice of funds than with Vanguard, but you can put together a very reasonable portfolio of index funds there as well. Yeah I really don't get why the contribution limit is lower than for a 4...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks Down - My Fault
Replies: 26
Views: 4014

Re: Stocks Down - My Fault

Markets were down sharply Monday in response to news that numerous Bogleheads are rebalancing and making IRA contributions. Analysts are divided on what this portends for the rest of the week.


:)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheriting a previously inherited IRA
Replies: 14
Views: 1588

Re: Inheriting a previously inherited IRA

What about a situation where RMDs from inherited retirement accounts make one ineligible to contribute to a Roth IRA, and the back door isn't practical due to the pro-rata rule? Is it still advantageous to follow the RMD schedule as opposed to taking a lump sum and then being able to contribute to a...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drivers License May not be good for air travel?
Replies: 47
Views: 4360

Re: Drivers License May not be good for air travel?

One issue is when you need to renew a passport, you have to send the old one in, and it typically takes an extended time for the new one to show up in the mail. So how would someone who travels regularly handle this without being grounded for an indeterminate period?
by baw703916
Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is exchanging FSIVX for FTIPX considered a wash?
Replies: 15
Views: 1191

Re: Is exchanging FSIVX for FTIPX considered a wash?

FTIPX is equivalent to Vanguard's Total International index fund (but follows the MSCI index which Vanguard's fund used to but no longer does). FSIVX follows the MSCI EAFE index, which excludes Canada, Emerging Markets, and small caps. FWIW, FTIPX has IMO more diversification, and I own it in a reti...
by baw703916
Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:53 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!
Replies: 199
Views: 7823

Re: HAPPY 93RD BIRTHDAY, TAYLOR!

Happy Birthday, Taylor! Thanks for all you've done, and continue to do, to help people become better investors.
by baw703916
Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow crosses 20,000?
Replies: 28
Views: 3005

Re: Dow crosses 20,000?

TropikThunder wrote:
thomasbayarea wrote:I'm an engineer.

Anything above 19,500 is rounded up to 20,000.

:sharebeer


I'm a molecular biologist, we usually add error bars like 19,500 +/- 500 :|


36,000 +/- 16,500 ;)
by baw703916
Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2306

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

Thank you, Taylor , for posting this. Just this week I read and extended and impassioned call for including a similar list of "Alternatives" to the tune of 20% to 30% of one's portfolio. This listing of returns for 2016 provides a nice splash of cold water over any serious consideration o...
by baw703916
Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"
Replies: 7
Views: 1090

Re: "Are Roth or Traditional Contributions Better?"

One of my pet peeves about how these examples are constructed in most Roth vs. traditional articles: Now let's take a look at a similar example, this time using Roth contributions. Thirty-five-year-old Michael, like Cathy, is in the 25% tax bracket. He too has $5,000 to invest per year, but he has o...
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5713

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

nisiprius wrote:Let's try to remember to check in a year and see how these three funds actually did.


I'm guessing one will do well, one will do poorly, and one will do middling. I have no idea which ones those will be. :)
by baw703916
Sun Jan 15, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water
Replies: 29
Views: 5713

Re: 3 Vanguard Funds That Are Taking on Water

This article is so bad, including plainly factually incorrect information that I am going to try and find the time to write a blog on it, in the investment porn category is what this is. Larry +100!!! He lost me at the subtitle for the article: "Near-term market conditions don't look good ...&...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

I tilt to small and value, but ignore momentum--for one thing my portfolio is mostly in taxable or the TSP, and MOM is inherently a not very tax-efficient strategy due to the turnover in which assets have positive momentum. But I don't see why it can't be successfully implemented in the real world,...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle" -- Momentum

Bogleheads: Momentum has been described as one of the best performing "factors?" One of the first momentum factor funds was FUNDX Upgrader Fund with a 2001 inception. The company describes its strategy this way: Upgrading is the investment approach we developed years ago and have been app...
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16989

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

livesoft wrote:^Clearly, everyone should join the military and not get drummed out by doing well in it.


Good idea. Ideally everyone should make Captain/Colonel.
by baw703916
Sat Jan 14, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"
Replies: 173
Views: 16989

Re: "Millennials may need to double how much they save for retirement"

I would ilke to see a report from millennials on their parents who are retired or retiring now. I'd like to see millennials ask their parents how much they saved and invested every year so that they could reach this stage of their lives "retired" or "retiring now." I will bet th...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

baw To me the conclusion is simple and obvious, since no one can know which factor(s) will do well in the future the prudent strategy is clearly to diversify across the factors that meet the criteria of being persistent, pervasive, robust, implementable and have intuitive reasons to believe you are...
by baw703916
Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3495

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

"The fickle factors of finance" has a nice ring to it. :) More seriously, looking at recent decades (ending in 0), at least one of the three "original" F-F risk factors (beta, size, value) has been rewarded in each decade, and at least one has not been rewarded. Obviously which o...

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