Search found 6342 matches

by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds
Replies: 103
Views: 11900

Re: Bogleheads' Rule of Thumb - Stocks vs Bonds

58% is because I like 29% in US stocks and 29% in foreign stocks because those are prime numbers. 29 + 29 = 58. It should be 42% stocks because 21 is a Fibonacci number, and they mean something or other about market moves. The preceeding is not serious advice, BTW. The serious advice: I'd add that ...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008
Replies: 76
Views: 5039

Re: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008

...If I choose to believe in factor weighting and the extra returns don't show up (as in this example), I still get the market return.... That may be true in this case, but are you claiming it's always true? If factors represent risk factors, as, for example, Fama and French claim, increasing expos...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 11, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008
Replies: 76
Views: 5039

Re: An "out of sample" test of two specific factor-based portfolios published pre-2008

Pascal's wager (factor-based investment version): If I choose not to believe in factor weighting and accept the market return, I will get the market return. If I choose to believe in factor weighting and the extra returns don't show up (as in this example), I still get the market return. If they do ...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 04, 2016 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Building A Portfolio With ETF's?
Replies: 6
Views: 714

Re: Building A Portfolio With ETF's?

I think the poster misread "actual" as "active"--so did I the first time. Technically, the traditional mutual fund structure (e.g. VTSAX) is an "open end" mutual fund. Vanguard lets you convert from open end to ETF, but not vice versa. So you would have to sell and repu...
by baw703916
Sun Sep 04, 2016 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Moving to Seattle from DC
Replies: 30
Views: 2369

Re: Moving to Seattle from DC

I moved to Seattle from Northern Virginia last year. I agree with the various posters who say that you want to minimize your commute distance. I ended up moving to the northern part of Seattle, but as my work location and other considerations are different that yours, my choice of neighborhood isn't...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive Investing Worse Than Marxism
Replies: 2
Views: 933

Re: Passive Investing Worse Than Marxism

To each according to his expense ratio. :D
by baw703916
Tue Aug 23, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1677

Re: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]

Speaking of Edward Jones, you guys will enjoy this column from Bloomberg. What do you do when forced to adopt a fiduciary standard? Raise fees! Edward Jones really likes those fees Edward Jones said it will stop offering its clients mutual funds (and ETFs) for commission-based retirement accounts. I...
by baw703916
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) w/Match + Small Biz SEP IRA = ?
Replies: 5
Views: 320

Re: 401(k) w/Match + Small Biz SEP IRA = ?

I've done this in years past with self-employment income from which I funded an SEP IRA. You can max out the 401k and also fund the SEP IRA, provided the SEP contribution is the employer's contribution, not the employee's contribution (even though if it's a one person business, employer and employee...
by baw703916
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401K Fees [401(k) Lawsuits increasing due to fiduciary standard]
Replies: 27
Views: 1677

Re: 401K FEE'S

This article appeared in Bloomberg yesterday. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/more-employers-are-worried-about-screwing-up-your-401-k A push to improve retirement savings plans is all good. What’s too bad is that much of the impetus behind the move isn’t tied to a desire to do the ...
by baw703916
Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 2657

Re: Most Investors Won't Outperform this Simple Portfolio

Most investors won't outperform that portfolio because 90% equities is more risk than most investors can comfortably handle! :beer
by baw703916
Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4906

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

I guess he thinks it'll go down.

He might be right.

Or not.

:?:
by baw703916
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on Vanguard's Gerry O'Reilly
Replies: 13
Views: 1269

Re: Bloomberg article on Vanguard's TSM Fund

cfs, here's the link. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=197509 Sorry about that. One thing I'll say in my defense is the thread title mentioned only Gerry O'Reilly, and not that he manages TSM. Since that's not a name that all Bogleheads will necessarily recognize (kind of th...
by baw703916
Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg article on Vanguard's Gerry O'Reilly
Replies: 13
Views: 1269

Bloomberg article on Vanguard's TSM Fund

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] A thread was started on this topic before, but was locked for being a "naked link". I thought the article was interesting, so I'm starting a new thread with some description. This Basically Anonymous Fund Manager Oversees $800 Billion...
by baw703916
Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: You have $10 Million and 10 years to live. What would you do?
Replies: 55
Views: 5128

Re: You have $10 Million and 10 years to live. What would you do?

I'm not sure how realistic this scenario is...how would you know that you would live 10 years, as opposed to some unknown number ranging from 6-15? and what medical/LTC expenses might you incur?
by baw703916
Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Simple vs. Complex"
Replies: 2
Views: 533

Re: "Simple vs. Complex"

Of course the only investment mentioned in a positive light in the article is the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index. I suppose that embodies the author's interpretation of "simple"? Sounds kind of gimmicky to me.
by baw703916
Sat Aug 13, 2016 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing
Replies: 74
Views: 5911

Re: Bogleheads: Asset-Allocation and Rebalancing

There have actually been many times over the past couple years (and even some in 2007) when the S&P and Dow have both set new highs. The only difference is that this time the NASDAQ did also. So it might be a rebalancing signal if you own a lot of QQQQ (NASDAQ ETF) and DIA (Dow ETF--30 stocks, w...
by baw703916
Sun Aug 07, 2016 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 84
Views: 7621

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

While Vanguard's report gave a minimum value of 20%, I think it's more relevant where they're actually putting their money (or more precisely, the money of the investors in their TR funds). It's 40% international. I think the more important thing is to pick an allocation and stick to it, whatever ha...
by baw703916
Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman on Muni's
Replies: 29
Views: 2171

Re: Edelman on Muni's

See his website, where he has an article Eleven great reasons to carry a big, long mortgage . It's so full of spin it's hard to know where to start. For example he says "your mortgage interest is deductible" and fails to say "...assuming that you itemize." Of course if one is sp...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The actual meaning of "expected return"
Replies: 57
Views: 2487

Re: The actual meaning of "expected return"

Two comments: 1) Calculating an expected value doesn't require knowing the future per se, but it does require knowing the nature of the "random event" in question. If you assume a fair card deck/coin/die, you can immediately calculate anything you like without any knowledge of the past or ...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 24, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking
Replies: 28
Views: 1969

Re: King Solomon was the original Boglehead - historically speaking

Ancient rulers did all tend to suffer (or sometimes benefit) from home country bias--kind of like investing a lot of your assets in your employer's business. Though that was perhaps unavoidable...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers
Replies: 70
Views: 9368

Re: Trying the Impossible - Financing 30-Year Retirements with 40-Year Careers

Is everyone going to have a happy retirement in the Lake Wobegon Retirement Community, where all the nest eggs are above average?
by baw703916
Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 557

Re: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity

FTIPX, elsewhere on this post, doesn't show up for me through Fido, and I see all of $12 million in assets on M* (?!). Fidelity Total International Index fund only had its inception date last month (on 6/7/16). I heard about it on this board, not through Fidelity--thanks Bogleheads! Maybe it's not ...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity
Replies: 13
Views: 557

Re: Alternatives to FIVFX at Fidelity

saltycaper wrote:Take a look at Fidelity Total International Index Fund Premium Class (FTIPX). ER 0.11%.


I just moved the holdings in my Fidelity account to FTIPX on Friday (from the global ex-US index, which doesn't include small caps).
by baw703916
Sat Jul 16, 2016 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jason Zweig: Bonds Aren't as Wretched as They Seem
Replies: 13
Views: 2132

Re: Jason Zweig: Bonds Aren't as Wretched as They Seem

If he's going to discuss real yields, why doesn't he mention TIPS? That's the only case where a real yield is defined.

Currently, it's 0.05% for a 10 year TIPS.
by baw703916
Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3830

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

itstoomuch wrote:Tao of Clams
Experienced Clamers get more clams, of better quality and size, quicker, and with less work.
Less experienced Clamers get fewer clams of less quality and size, taking more time, and more work.

YMMV


Can you prove that experienced clam pickers exist? Maybe they're just lucky?
by baw703916
Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 4247

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

We're talking past each other. The probability of a 22% drop before 2050 could be 50%--I don't have any way of knowing. All I'm saying is that the occurrence of the 1987 crash is inconsistent with returns following a normal distribution (no informed person ever claimed they had to follow a normal di...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 4247

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Are you saying that the probability of the 1987 22% market drop was calculated to be one in 1 x 10*88 ? No, it's saying that under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns that's what it is. If that really is the probability, you wouldn't expect to see that happen ever in the age of the u...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3830

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I have to say a lot of the posts seem to be misinterpreting the question posed, which is: Is it possible to reliably underperform the market, before costs , on a risk-adjusted basis, except by luck or by taking idiosyncratic risk? Having lots of costs and not diversifying will certainly do it, but ...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?
Replies: 3
Views: 644

Re: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?

ETF creation/redemption event happen when an authorized participant trades a certain number of shares of the ETF (a creation unit) for the underlying securities. To create new ETF shares, the AP buys the securities, trades them to the sponsor (e.g. Vanguard) for the ETF shares, then sells the ETF sh...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?
Replies: 53
Views: 3830

Re: Just as hard to lose to the market as to beat it?

I have to say a lot of the posts seem to be misinterpreting the question posed, which is: Is it possible to reliably underperform the market, before costs, on a risk-adjusted basis, except by luck or by taking idiosyncratic risk? Having lots of costs and not diversifying will certainly do it, but th...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?
Replies: 3
Views: 644

Re: Why does neither SCV and TSM have capital gains in the past decade?

The ETF share class has made it possible for index funds with highish turnover (within reason) to minimize capital gains distributions. It's a little bit in the weeds, but the fund earmarks shares with low cost basis for ETF redemptions (not a taxable event--note individuals rarely redeem ETF shares...
by baw703916
Sun Jul 10, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 4247

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

You are saying that the odds of a 22% market drop in one day are one in 100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 ? If the assumption that returns follow a normal distribution is valid, then yes, that is the probability. It's not even something you h...
by baw703916
Sat Jul 09, 2016 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bayesian market predictions?
Replies: 75
Views: 4247

Re: Bayesian market predictions?

Bayesian algorithms are concerned with conditional probabilities, meaning that that you have some amount of information about what is happening, but that information is incomplete. You're trying to adjust the odds of something whose state you don't know, based on something you do know that is somewh...
by baw703916
Wed Jul 06, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces
Replies: 89
Views: 11156

Re: "Why most retirees will never spend down their portfolio" by Michael Kitces

"I've got more money than I can ever spend" = first world problem.

Not to dismiss the article though...having some money left just in case seems prudent. As does leaving it to family members/worthy causes in case you don't need it all.
by baw703916
Fri Jul 01, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which city should I move to?
Replies: 40
Views: 3311

Re: Which city should I move to?

I moved to Seattle last year. One thing that I hadn't realized is the summer isn't that rainy (most of the rain is in the winter). So really, summers are quite pleasant in either Chicago or Seattle. I think though, you should think more about quality of life issues. What would you be doing in either...
by baw703916
Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please show me why three fund is better than this...
Replies: 44
Views: 3152

Re: Please show me why three fund is better than this...

One significant vulnerability of this portfolio is in a 1970s "stagflation" type scenario, in which there's a bear market in equities at the same time that inflation is causing a significantly negative real return in bonds. Granted, inflation seems hard to even contemplate at present, but....
by baw703916
Tue Jun 28, 2016 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?
Replies: 145
Views: 11887

Re: What did you learn from the post-Brexit bloodbath?

I learned what the ticker symbol for the ishares UK index ETF is (EWU). Even if you have no intention of buying it, it's kind of a useful thing to look at since it combines the FTSE 100 move (denominated in GBP) and the GBP/USD exchange rate during US market hours. I'll also observe that UK investor...
by baw703916
Tue Jun 28, 2016 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switching to Fidelity's new Total International Index (includes small cap!)
Replies: 60
Views: 6200

Re: Switching to Fidelity's new Total International Index (includes small cap!)

Thank you for starting this thread!

I have a retirement account with Fidelity currently invested in the low-minimum version of global ex-US index. In a few months I should be above the $10K minimum for the premium shares. I think once that happens I'll move it into FTIPX instead of FSGDX.
by baw703916
Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plunge and Panic-Do You Get It Now?
Replies: 108
Views: 12738

Re: Do You See it Now?

With all due respect, I don't see why it's hard to stay the course. Today I sold some bonds (up over 1% today) and bought some equities (way down). I didn't listen to any market prognosticators, because frankly, they never say anything worth listening to. :)
by baw703916
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Shouldn't Do International Stocks?
Replies: 60
Views: 7923

Re: Why You Shouldn't Do International Stocks?

What do the greatest investors of the next 40 years say about international investing? :?:
by baw703916
Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario
Replies: 162
Views: 16949

Re: Actionable advice in a Brexit scenario

My advice to any interested Bogleheads would be to not look at your account balance tomorrow, It won't be pretty, unless you have mostly Treasuries.

I guess that would qualify as "inactionable" advice. :)
by baw703916
Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IWC Watch, any thoughts? [Wristwatch brand]
Replies: 129
Views: 8354

Re: IWC Watch, any thoughts?

Petrocelli wrote:Do you really think people who spend $25,000 on a watch are worried whether their watch keeps time more accurately than a Casio?


If I spend $25K on a watch, I expect it to be an atomic clock that fits on my wrist.

For the record, I have way more than $25K invested in IWC (the mutual fund). :)
by baw703916
Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the C fund too risky?
Replies: 20
Views: 1809

Re: Is the C fund too risky?

So how do those numbers relate to the annuity interest rate on this page?

https://www.tsp.gov/whatsnew/Content/cu ... Rates.html
by baw703916
Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is the C fund too risky?
Replies: 20
Views: 1809

Re: Is the C fund too risky?

You also have the option of converting your TSP to an annuity, with inflation-adjusted payments; this ensures that you will not outlive the money, but also removes any leftovers from your estate. However, the current TSP annuity rate is 1.8%, which works out to $1875/month, quite a bit less than th...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intl. Portion of Three-fund Portfolio using FIDO funds
Replies: 9
Views: 674

Re: Intl. Portion of Three-fund Portfolio using FIDO funds

I'm not sure why you say it's "draggy". It tracks very well with both its benchmark (MSCI all-world ex-US index) and Vanguard's Total international fund. The FSIVX fund doesn't include Emerging Market stocks. That happened to make it do better in the last year, as livesoft points out. But ...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 09, 2016 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio
Replies: 118
Views: 6909

Re: What is your overall portfolio weighted expense ratio

earlgrey wrote:Somewhere between 0.03% - 0.05% (can't input TSP funds into the Morningstar x-ray tool to get the exact ER)


Looks like 2.9 basis points for all the TSP funds in 2015

https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/Fun ... Ratio.html
by baw703916
Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard's Active Funds: A Deeper Look at the Performance" (IFA.com/Tom Allen and Mark Hebner,June 7, 2016)
Replies: 10
Views: 1479

Re: "Vanguard's Active Funds: A Deeper Look at the Performance" (IFA.com/Tom Allen and Mark Hebner,June 7, 2016)

If the null hypothesis is true, then there should also be 1-2 Vanguard active funds with "statistically significant" underperformance. So are there?

BTW, are they considering the "active" Vanguard bond funds? I still want to know if "TIPS picking" is a thing!
by baw703916
Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment
Replies: 6
Views: 1197

Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond fund has been a good investment

Not quite nine years ago, I decided to invest in the Vanguard Long Term Tax Exempt Bond Fund. I later added a much smaller investment in the High Yield Tax Exempt fund. Except for a few months last year when I was buying a house in conjunction with a move, I've held those assets ever since. Vanguard...
by baw703916
Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"
Replies: 18
Views: 2267

Re: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"

If someone is selling an ETF that invests in something worth owning (not junk bonds) for a 20% discount to an otherwise reasonable price, I say buy it! For that situation to occur, all the usual proprietary traders and other market makers must have considered that opportunity, and declined it. That...
by baw703916
Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"
Replies: 18
Views: 2267

Re: "Wall Street Turns to ETFs to Sidestep Illiquidity in Bond Mkt"

For bonds, the valuation isn't completely arbitrary, because they have a defined par value and interest rate. So it's not too hard to adjust for credit risk and duration and figure out what a reasonable price should be (absent a market panic or liquidity crisis). Moral: don't ever find yourself in n...

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