Search found 1524 matches

by backpacker
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

You can see why investors with relative risk aversion would tend to prefer the index to low volatility stocks. Is there also an explanations of why some investors would favor high volatility stocks? If we are to think of this as a rational response to risk, we will need to explain how a large group...
by backpacker
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

An interesting suggestion. You probably know more about these proposals than I do. Maybe try telling a story? An investors comes on Bogleheads and post her portfolio in the usual way. After a few pages of discussion, we conclude that yes, she should definitely not own the total market and should in...
by backpacker
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

There is a good case to be made that Profitability or Quality is a good place to be. Vanguard Dividend Growth is a good example as consistently growing dividends are a good indicator of consistently growing earnings. This is a nice point. I posed my test by saying, if you think that risk X has posi...
by backpacker
Sat Apr 22, 2017 6:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop
Replies: 28
Views: 3105

Re: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop

It's like this. Suppose you go to the store to buy a pack of beer. The owner tells you, great news! Pakcs that use to be $10 are now only $5. There's a catch though. Each pack used to have six bottle but now they have only three. Sure the price has gone down, but this isn't good news for you becaus...
by backpacker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

I think some of the systemic explanations, particularly the ones about correlations with macroeconomic events, might support an explanation along the lines of the one you are requiring. Basically, you would be looking for adverse correlations between the returns of positive-factor stocks and other ...
by backpacker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Your hypothesis/test says that you believe value and small premiums, if they exist, are a result of behavioral errors. Can you name anything that would pass your test other than stocks as a whole? Otherwise, it sounds like you are merely making an argument for why you do not believe in value and sm...
by backpacker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4014

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

That's the response, but I don't completely buy it myself, and in fact hold international stocks at market weight. The reason I don't buy the argument is that there seems to be some evidence that stock returns are inversely related to currency returns. This is actually pretty intuitive when you thi...
by backpacker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?
Replies: 24
Views: 2208

Re: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?

1) Take the largest US company. Right now, that company is Apple. 2) Find the percentage of Vanguard Total Market invested in Apple (currently 2.9%). 3) Find the percentage of Vanguard Total World invested in Apple (currently 1.6%). 4) Divide the second number (1.6) by the first (2.9) to get 55%. T...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?
Replies: 24
Views: 2208

Re: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?

Like others above, I hold international at cap weight and also have cap weighted funds. One way to estimate the current domestic/international split is to use Vanguard's website: 1) Take the largest US company. Right now, that company is Apple. 2) Find the percentage of Vanguard Total Market invest...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

Re: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

Your hypothesis/test says that you believe value and small premiums, if they exist, are a result of behavioral errors. I wasn't thinking that the test assumes this? For all I know, it could be that we can find a large class of investors who we would advise, given their life circumstances, to overwe...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns
Replies: 36
Views: 2268

A test for when risk factors have positive expected returns

We know that not all unique risks are reward with higher than average expected returns. Energy companies are subject to unique risk because, if the price of oil drops, their prospects will be hurt in ways that the prospects of other companies will not. There is no reason to expect that overweighting...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Should I invest in an IPO?]
Replies: 11
Views: 1015

Re: [Should I invest in an IPO?]

You might do some hunting around but, as I recall, studies have suggested that IPOs on the whole do worse than the total market. Probably not a bet you want to be taking.
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity ethics moving to Vanguard
Replies: 35
Views: 3802

Re: Fidelity ethics moving to Vanguard

Fidelity ethics moving to Vanguard


Am I the only one who read this as saying that the bad ethics of Fidelity have now moved to Vanguard? :D
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop
Replies: 28
Views: 3105

Re: Periodic Investing and Wanting the Market to Drop

I have read countless times that if you are routinely and periodically investing in a market that you should be happy when that market drops because you start to get shares at a cheaper price. When you buy a stock, you are buying the future earnings of the company issuing the stock. When prices go ...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Institutional Index Fund Institutional Shares - Lacking Small and Mid-Cap
Replies: 16
Views: 1317

Re: VINIX - Lacking Small and Mid-Cap

For those who haven't googled it, VINIX is the institutional version Vanguard's S&P 500 fund. What you want to add is the Vanguard Extended Market fund. More information on using multiple funds to approximate the total market can be found in this wiki article.
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4014

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

Try to imagine a scenario where the companies with N-Z have higher returns for 30 years than the companies A-M. I have no idea what that would look like. But I can pretty easily imagine a single country lagging the rest of the world for 30 years. To make the example more complete, imagine there is ...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1867

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

As far as oil, the world does seem to have changed. Indeed, I am starting to read that "Peak Oil" might not mean peak supply but peak demand. It could be that we could be seeing an era of relatively cheap gasoline, which we saw here from the early 1980's into the 2000's. Super interesting...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4014

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

Here is an article that is against Bogle and Buffet's international advice. The one piece of investing advice from Bogle and Buffett you may want to reject http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/17/a-stubborn-investing-rule-shared-by-jack-bogle-and-warren-buffett.html "To my mind, saying 'I get exposure ...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6399

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

Bill Bernstein is the most influential person in my investing life. If he deigns to show his face around these parts again I'm going to keep bringing up his suggestion to move to short term treasuries post global financial crisis. Nothing like say 40% of ones portfolio under performing by a couple ...
by backpacker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?
Replies: 24
Views: 2208

Re: Those that hold international equities at market-cap weight: what is your method?

Like others above, I hold international at cap weight and also have cap weighted funds. One way to estimate the current domestic/international split is to use Vanguard's website: 1) Take the largest US company. Right now, that company is Apple. 2) Find the percentage of Vanguard Total Market investe...
by backpacker
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6399

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

I agree with what was said above. Larry contributed a large amount of content to the forum and that is something that will genuinely be missed. What will not be missed is the way he treated those he disagreed with. There is no list of credentials or number of published books and articles that justif...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do I add bonds to my child's 529?
Replies: 18
Views: 1550

Re: When do I add bonds to my child's 529?

I would consider the 529s to be part of my total portfolio, not separate portfolios, and would adjust my stock and bond holdings across funds to match my target. I probably would not worry much about changing the allocation as my children aged. I'd be curious to understand your logic here? To me it...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road bike
Replies: 29
Views: 2837

Re: Road bike

I would look into buying used through a bike shop. Craigslist is a great resource for used bikes, but only if you know how to spot a good deal from a lemon. I mean, you should know what bikes are worth and you should ride whatever you buy before you buy it to make sure the gears shift and breaks wo...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Road bike
Replies: 29
Views: 2837

Re: Road bike

Given that, do you Bogleheads have any advice or suggestions for make/model bike, whether new or used? I bought a used Specialized bike off craigslist a couple years ago for $400. My general strategy would be to look for bikes from real (i.e. non-discount) bike brand. Don't pay much to move up from...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frustrated Losing Weight!
Replies: 131
Views: 8511

Re: Frustrated Losing Weight!

Given all the above advice, maybe we need a Bogleheads Guide to Dieting book? And exercise videos! Jazzercise with Jack Bogle. Step class with livesoft. Spinning with nisiprius. It would be amazing.
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

Whakamole wrote:Of course in some HCOL areas, a $1.2M house may not be much at all.


That's a bit like sitting in an upscale restaurant and saying, well, $120 for the chicken isn't much at all. They want $200 for the salmon in here! :D
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frustrated Losing Weight!
Replies: 131
Views: 8511

Re: Frustrated Losing Weight!

On too many medications fighting my type 2 diabetes...weight loss would help a lot I know. Trend diet work in the beginning but it's not something you can live with. Anyone have any suggestions for low carb breakfast...I know what to do, I just need to find the right motivation...perhaps the threat...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

The individual details mark the difference between reality and fantasy. Investing 50%+ of your income and then retiring on the 4% rule doesn't seem fantastical to me. Perhaps it should be the 3% rule because of the longer time involved, but it still seems solidly founded on the same reality people ...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

It's relevant because without it the original plan would not work. Making it work requires doing something for income... Before earning $400k/year from the blog, MMM seems to have acquired a paid off house, a paid off $2,400/month rental house, and a $800k portfolio. That would cover $25k in expens...
by backpacker
Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

To be fair the blog income came long after retirement and the general plan was to keep on retiring after working. That was my thought too. MMM didn't have said net worth when he retired or when most of the posts on the blog were written, so its unclear why it is relevent to anything. It's relevant ...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing to more independant, wonder about WealthFront, etc
Replies: 5
Views: 729

Re: Changing to more independant, wonder about WealthFront, etc

You should just buy Vanguard funds directly. The Welthfront tax loss harvesting is about as close to a scam as something can get without actually being illegal. It will will earn about 1/25 of the claimed 2% assuming all goes well. If you want super simplicity, get a target date fund or a life strat...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When do I add bonds to my child's 529?
Replies: 18
Views: 1550

Re: When do I add bonds to my child's 529?

I would consider the 529s to be part of my total portfolio, not separate portfolios, and would adjust my stock and bond holdings across funds to match my target. I probably would not worry much about changing the allocation as my children aged.
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 500 or Total Market Index Fund
Replies: 5
Views: 1273

Re: S&P 500 or Total Market Index Fund

Look at the performance of the funds against the indexes they're supposed to be tracking. The difference is your real cost of owning the funds. Sometimes its different than the stated ER and, when the difference is so small, could well make a difference in which fund is really cheaper.
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

Gleefully not paying income taxes and gloating about it while the rest of us "working chumps" support society. For a moment I thought you were talking about the last thread on tax-loss harvesting. Or maybe it was that thread on municipal bonds? Oh wait! It must have been one of those thre...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

I am not sure how I am branded as a "hater" based on my post. All I said was that MMM, with a high net worth, faces less risk than many of his readers, and it is a risk that is very significant to me. I actually do read the blog and check out the forum, though I find Bogleheads to be more...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds vs. Cash
Replies: 17
Views: 3631

Re: Bonds vs. Cash

Most of us have small enough amounts to invest that we can use FDIC accounts. A good savings account from an online bank is definitely better than short bonds. FDIC insured CDs are better than government bonds. If you want the returns of corporates, use a mix of FDIC insured CDs and stocks. Some peo...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

Haters gonna hate. I guess. :D Regular readers of the MMM blog will know that by "retire" MMM means something closer to financially independent... Sounds like spin to me. It appears that both MMM and his fans have a contentious relationship with the truth. I prefer learning things to bein...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2382

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Holding Period?

collected -- actually value stocks have had slightly higher vol historically -- not growth. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=82321 Although I wonder how holding period (of the underlying) would affect this as well since I believe the work that shows value has higher vol just looks a...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 7545

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

It's a little deceiving letting people know that it's completely safe to "retire" with 4% and on the side he's actually making $400k+/year. You can just follow his shining example and start your own blog and earn $400k a year. At $400k a year, he should be a millionaire several times over...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2382

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?

Very strange stuff that is hard to explain with rational pricing. If value also has a kind of signal switch that is dependent on rebalancing frequency, it really goes against the mainstream Fama/French view that value is a risk premium. Said another way, if value stocks are so risky, why can't I ju...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2382

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Holding Period?

So glancing over the first paper again, I may have spotted a problem. I can't see the whole paper, but the portfolios seem to be formed 1983 through 1987 and then the results are tabulated through 2000. Given the 90s boom in growth stocks that means that, in the long run, growth stocks participate i...
by backpacker
Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Turnover Frequency?
Replies: 34
Views: 2382

Re: Value vs Growth - Depends on the Holding Period?

These are both interesting and involved papers and it would take more time than I have right now to read them and really understand them. But a quick thought. What’s reported here would seem to be the *opposite* of the result reported in the Arnott paper on Clairvoyant Value . The authors there look...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commonplace Thesis (on chance vs randomness) and Bogleheads theory and debates on this forum
Replies: 9
Views: 828

Re: Commonplace Thesis (on chance vs randomness) and Bogleheads theory and debates on this forum

http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chance-randomness/ I tend to equate chance and randomness together in future stock/bond predictions. I think that may be why I believe in indices, doubt stock pickers and, to a large degree, factor use or other strategies derived from back testing. Thinking out lou...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing early..!
Replies: 31
Views: 2191

Re: Investing early..!

If the point is that someone who invests $100 a month for 20 years starting at the age of 20 might do worse than someone who invests $200 a mont for tens years starting at 30, then yes. That's true. The idea behind investing early is that things probably will not turn out that way. Probably the earl...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity competing harder w/Vanguard
Replies: 92
Views: 9663

Re: Fidelity competing harder w/Vanguard

I understand that not everyone is laser focused on costs. I thought that was what Bogleheads all did, but ok. My box that tells me total cost per year is very important to me and you know what? When I see that one of my funds has just cut its ER, I'm very happy to update the spreadsheet and see how...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity competing harder w/Vanguard
Replies: 92
Views: 9663

Re: Fidelity competing harder w/Vanguard

IMHO, Fidelity's website ... is worth a few basis points. I've never understood this point about Vanguard's website. Sure, it's not the slickest one out there, but I'm on it once or twice a year for ten minutes. Snazzy website for 20 minutes a year can't be worth more than about $2. If anything, a ...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 5586

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Or this one from the US - which if you look closely shows a steady increase in the market is a post-WWII phenomenon: https://www.google.com/search?q=s%26p+1900&biw=1704&bih=925&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjossvY3uvOAhUG7SYKHUULDs0Q_AUIBygC#imgrc=PSMCGc-NhcJ0dM%3A Th...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy 40th Birthday to "Bogle's Folly" AND THANK YOU, JACK!
Replies: 19
Views: 1087

Re: Happy 40th Vanguard 500

JoMoney wrote: So it seems we're left with 1 out of 355 funds tracked over the past 40 years that has sustained excellent performance. Not good odds.


What is that fund and where can I buy it. :D
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New to this world
Replies: 8
Views: 1064

Re: New to this world

Hello and welcome to the forum! What you should invest in for 10-15 years is very much a personal question. Someone who had a reliable income and was comfortable with losing money could easily put it all in stocks. Others with a variable income or not comfortable with losing money should put the mon...
by backpacker
Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 5586

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Prior to the 1930s, business cycles were as a matter of course quite regularly interspersed with periods of deflation accompanying depression, all part of natural cycles. The chart illustrates this quite nicely. Right. One of the things about the above chart is that it made me wonder about financia...

Go to advanced search