Search found 1348 matches

by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 59
Views: 1592

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Just read through the most recent threads here on Schiller, and done a bit of searching elsewhere. This is probably a basic question, but here it is: Does the Schiller CAPE predictions about future returns consider the start date, or is it start date insensitive? Here's what I mean: Does Schiller C...
by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 59
Views: 1592

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Remember that CAPE 'implied' in March, 2009, that equities were far overpriced, when in reality it was quite likely the best time to buy in most of our lifetimes. This is simply not true. CAPE in March of 09 was 13.32 (source: Robert Shiller's Online database), and the average historical CAPE to da...
by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 2892

Re: Why Invest in Average?

I don't know why you guys are settling on average either. All you have to do to beat that is find a good growth stock mutual fund averaging at least 12% returns, and a manager with a good track record of at least 5 years. This is what Dave Ramsey says, and he says the one he picked has done 12% sinc...
by azanon
Sat May 13, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3305

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

I agree with the OP. I like the question that Zvi Bodie wants others to ask themselves, which is what is the least amount of risk one can take and still meet your financial goals. I think that makes a lot of sense. So, you might be able to save enough or work long enough that you can't really justif...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9118

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

I feel like this is begging the question, particularly because somewhere around a 30/70 has the highest Sharpe ratio, thus mathematically works best. So, why do most people use a 60/40 even though a 30/70, or thereabouts, is the most optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio? My guess would be because...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9118

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

For 1950-1969 (twenty years) For stocks and long-term government bonds, the optimum was 100% stocks. Yes. For stocks and intermediate-term government bonds, the optimum was 36/64. And I suspect if you factor load the stocks, the optimal allocation for stocks would probably drop below 36/64 (for tho...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9118

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

All he is claiming is that 60/40 is better than 0/100 or 100/0. OK, I'll accept that. But to my eyeball it looks like 35/65 or thereabouts has been better than 60/40 in "nearly all time periods." The 60/40 allocation is anomalously high in stocks, and I've yet to see a clear explanation o...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9118

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

I have always been a 60/40 guy even when I was younger. So I'd like to get your opinion on why you think the 60/40 asset allocation has always worked so well. Why it has stood the test of time. I feel like this is begging the question, particularly because somewhere around a 30/70 has the highest S...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18014

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I'm now almost 44...and I would give anything to go back 20 years, buy 24 year old me a beer, and thank me for being a long-term thinking kinda guy. I'd tell him his long view has bought us options, lots of them, and many nights of stress free sleep. I'd tell about the $5000 MRI procedure as a resu...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18014

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I'm now almost 44...and I would give anything to go back 20 years, buy 24 year old me a beer, and thank me for being a long-term thinking kinda guy. I'd tell him his long view has bought us options, lots of them, and many nights of stress free sleep. I'd tell about the $5000 MRI procedure as a resu...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 6981

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

15% Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF (VOT) 0.07% 15% Vanguard International Explorer Fund (VINEX) 0.42% or VSS 0.13% 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) 0.34% 15% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) 0.07% 30% PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS ETF (LTPZ) 0.20% 7.5% ETFS Bloomberg All C...
by azanon
Fri May 05, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 59
Views: 6981

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Another portfolio revision (inspired by Tag :mrgreen: ) 15% Vanguard Selected Value Fund (VASVX) 0.39% 15% Vanguard International Explorer Fund (VINEX) 0.42% 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) 0.34% 15% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) 0.07% 30% PIMCO 15+ Year US ...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5507

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Azanon, I understand your point. Didn't Einstein say "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler"? I think Larry would simply say rebalancing an 8 investment portfolio is really no more complicated than a 3 fund portfolio. If the benefits to adding different sources ...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5507

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

I would like to believe even "active" investors follow some sort of rules or data, or trading system, and aren't just acting on a hunch! I'm reminded of Mebane Faber's momentum strategy here: http://mebfaber.com/timing-model/ As the link gives away, he even entitles it a "timing model...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5507

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Is factor investing really passive, what with new factors being added to funds yearly and new screens being implemented? This is same question I'm essentially raising too, and perhaps it is even a rhetorical one. That sounds more like tactical investing or tactical asset allocation. So my concern w...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5507

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

I was just watching some old youtube videos of Larry last night. They were great - he was hitting the high points of low cost, total market investing, and cautioning against wall street attempting to make money off of you with any variety of excuses for you to do it. I miss the old Larry and this ne...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy more AMD [should I?]
Replies: 9
Views: 1144

Re: Buy more AMD [should I?]

No I'd sell what you have and then short it too. You're catching the drop early. This could be a big money maker. :oops:
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I apologize for the snark - I deleted that opener from my post.

Ok i read your post, and have no new information to add to this item.
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Who besides me remembers the 90s, when "smart beta" was anything growth, or maximum growth. I remember a time when only chumps were buying value, and that time was a good decade long. I wonder what the factor(s) du-jour will be 10 years from now. You mean like this paper , published in 19...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Who besides me remembers the 90s, when "smart beta" was anything growth, or maximum growth. I remember a time when only chumps were buying value, and that time was a good decade long.

I wonder what the factor(s) du-jour will be 10 years from now.
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I would welcome a 1-2% extra return in exchange for extra risk. It is difficult to obtain equity exposure greater than 100%. At my age my use of bonds is very limited, and I use them sparingly (<10% of allocation). My point was, if I were only getting 1-2% extra and it wasn't just "alpha"...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I would welcome a 1-2% extra return in exchange for extra risk. It is difficult to obtain equity exposure greater than 100%. At my age my use of bonds is very limited, and I use them sparingly (<10% of allocation). My point was, if I were only getting 1-2% extra and it wasn't just "alpha"...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5342

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

The real turnoff for me (about smart beta) is that even proponents of it will admit that all of these factors generally are at a higher risk (e.g Value is higher risk than market, small-cap is higher risk than total market, etc.), so even if it's an extra 1-2% return, how much of that expected retur...
by azanon
Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6412

Re: Investing $1M

With Vanguard, in contrast, WYSIWYG .... or if it changes, it'll probably just get even cheaper. For the levels you're considering investing, I'd also be concerned about insurance. In a dire straights situation, I'd like my odds better with Vanguard vs. Betterment. One other thing - the "read ...
by azanon
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing "Life Expectancy" withdrawals with SS delay to 70
Replies: 0
Views: 276

Pairing "Life Expectancy" withdrawals with SS delay to 70

While I was reviewing my eventual TSP withdrawal options, I was intrigued to learn that the withdrawal based on life expectancy model causes payments to steadily rise, and at a very fast rate, and then suddenly drops at age 70 before it begins to rise again for subsequent years. As I understand it, ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...
Replies: 34
Views: 4370

Re: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...

Wolfgang are you using 2 different accounts (also cunobelinus)? I can't tell for sure if this is two different complaints or the same person.
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5619

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%. I'm not su...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5619

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%. I'm not su...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5619

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

As of 04/27/2017, the expense ratio on your Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares has changed from 0.05% to 0.04%. That is a 20% decrease in cost- where else can you save that much in one day!!!!! By switching to Schwab's total market fund you could decrease those costs by 25% - all...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5619

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%.
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5
Replies: 28
Views: 4349

Re: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5

> Roth contributions can be withdrawn anytime, tax and penalty free (provided you've had the account 5 years I believe?). If you've contributed to a Roth your entire career and are at, at least 50, your contribution tally will likely be fairly decent. > You can take "substantially equal periodi...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6412

Re: Investing $1M

Opinions on the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund? https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/managed-payout/#/ Personally, I think it's outstanding. It has an expense ratio of (effective) 0.23% percent. The 0.38% ER that they report actually includes the trading costs associated with the Alternative St...
by azanon
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14398

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

Yes, I got here by taking big risks and regularly staring death in the face for over 10 years building a company. I could easily be here with near-zero assets instead of 8 figs, or if things had played out differently I could be here with 9 or even 10 figs. None of what we're discussing feels that ...
by azanon
Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6412

Re: Investing $1M

Opinions on the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund? https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/managed-payout/#/ Personally, I think it's outstanding. It has an expense ratio of (effective) 0.23% percent. The 0.38% ER that they report actually includes the trading costs associated with the Alternative St...
by azanon
Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...
Replies: 34
Views: 4370

Re: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...

I applied for this card last week, and the approval process (wait) was about 10 seconds.
by azanon
Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2736

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Gee, it has only been a decade or so of under-performance. You have to give these things time - maybe a couple of generations, but think of the tail risks you avoid. You have to ignore the actual return of commodities and consider the risk adjusted return of the portfolio. Dale I remember the epic ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 39
Views: 6632

Re: The great commodities debate

Hey Rick, welcome back!

........

Re: commodities, you can get them much cheaper now; BCI goes for just 0.29% ER (Bloomberg commodities Index)
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 36624

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

As someone who participates on a variety of forums with wide ranging topics, I can say that by comparison, this forum is very tightly moderated (not a criticism, just an observation). I'd be surprised if someone could even find a post with a personal attack that isn't already deleted, and also the o...
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2736

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

FWIW, if you actually ever did want to add commodities to your portfolio, you can do it quite a bit cheaper now. The ETF, BCI, launched at the end of last month, based on Bloomberg Commodities Index and goes for a mere 0.29% ER, pretty significantly undercutting the competition.
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6637

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

Azanon, I think your view is incorrect. I believe Larry was only trying to give back. He was just trying to get the word out on the winning strategy. he doesn't get much of anything in return except the satisfaction of helping others. I could be wrong, but doubt it strongly. Dave I don't see how it...
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2736

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Gee, it has only been a decade or so of under-performance. You have to give these things time - maybe a couple of generations, but think of the tail risks you avoid. You have to ignore the actual return of commodities and consider the risk adjusted return of the portfolio. Dale I remember the epic ...
by azanon
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2736

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Dale_G wrote:Disclaimer: I hold some commodities. I have about a pound of cornmeal in the pantry as well as a pound of oats. ........

Dale


So no sugar, coffee, cocoa in your pantry, or lean hogs running around out back in a pen? I think you might be underweight commodities, actually.
by azanon
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6637

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

Just my observation, Larry spent quite a bit of time making posts about his articles and/or his books. So it seems a bit strange to view this as him leaving us, as if to suggest he were only here to help, and meaning I'm not sure who's hurt more by his departure; him or everyone else. Now if others ...
by azanon
Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4409

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure your investing advice can be inspired by someone without taking their every word as holy gospel - it is what rational people do. Yes I take Bogle at his word. Do you like people taking you at your word? I'm sure you do care - you just have no idea if what you are p...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4409

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

anoop wrote:
azanon wrote:At some point, prices really have to matter. They mattered to Bogle in the late 90s, and he took action based upon that. This fact is well documented.


Do you have a pointer? Thanks.


I really don't know what you're asking. Please clarify.
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8855

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

If it is true that the climate doesn't "feel" bubbly (and I'm not saying one way or the other), then I would take that as a bearish signal as opposed to a bullish one. It's been said many times to be fearful in an investment climate with the bluest of skies, and greedy when there is the p...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4409

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

At some point, prices really have to matter. They mattered to Bogle in the late 90s, and he took action based upon that. This fact is well documented. Six years ago Bogle said not to expect equity returns higher than 8% annualized over the next decade - 6 years later VTSAX has returned closer to 12...

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