Search found 1310 matches

by azanon
Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2346

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Gee, it has only been a decade or so of under-performance. You have to give these things time - maybe a couple of generations, but think of the tail risks you avoid. You have to ignore the actual return of commodities and consider the risk adjusted return of the portfolio. Dale I remember the epic ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 38
Views: 6248

Re: The great commodities debate

Hey Rick, welcome back!

........

Re: commodities, you can get them much cheaper now; BCI goes for just 0.29% ER (Bloomberg commodities Index)
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."
Replies: 297
Views: 26309

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

As someone who participates on a variety of forums with wide ranging topics, I can say that by comparison, this forum is very tightly moderated (not a criticism, just an observation). I'd be surprised if someone could even find a post with a personal attack that isn't already deleted, and also the o...
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2346

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

FWIW, if you actually ever did want to add commodities to your portfolio, you can do it quite a bit cheaper now. The ETF, BCI, launched at the end of last month, based on Bloomberg Commodities Index and goes for a mere 0.29% ER, pretty significantly undercutting the competition.
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6289

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

Azanon, I think your view is incorrect. I believe Larry was only trying to give back. He was just trying to get the word out on the winning strategy. he doesn't get much of anything in return except the satisfaction of helping others. I could be wrong, but doubt it strongly. Dave I don't see how it...
by azanon
Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2346

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Gee, it has only been a decade or so of under-performance. You have to give these things time - maybe a couple of generations, but think of the tail risks you avoid. You have to ignore the actual return of commodities and consider the risk adjusted return of the portfolio. Dale I remember the epic ...
by azanon
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2346

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Dale_G wrote:Disclaimer: I hold some commodities. I have about a pound of cornmeal in the pantry as well as a pound of oats. ........

Dale


So no sugar, coffee, cocoa in your pantry, or lean hogs running around out back in a pen? I think you might be underweight commodities, actually.
by azanon
Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan
Replies: 35
Views: 6289

Re: Larry Swedroe : Integrated Investment Plan

Just my observation, Larry spent quite a bit of time making posts about his articles and/or his books. So it seems a bit strange to view this as him leaving us, as if to suggest he were only here to help, and meaning I'm not sure who's hurt more by his departure; him or everyone else. Now if others ...
by azanon
Thu Mar 16, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4328

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

I don't think so. I'm pretty sure your investing advice can be inspired by someone without taking their every word as holy gospel - it is what rational people do. Yes I take Bogle at his word. Do you like people taking you at your word? I'm sure you do care - you just have no idea if what you are p...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4328

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

anoop wrote:
azanon wrote:At some point, prices really have to matter. They mattered to Bogle in the late 90s, and he took action based upon that. This fact is well documented.


Do you have a pointer? Thanks.


I really don't know what you're asking. Please clarify.
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8699

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

If it is true that the climate doesn't "feel" bubbly (and I'm not saying one way or the other), then I would take that as a bearish signal as opposed to a bullish one. It's been said many times to be fearful in an investment climate with the bluest of skies, and greedy when there is the p...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4328

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

At some point, prices really have to matter. They mattered to Bogle in the late 90s, and he took action based upon that. This fact is well documented. Six years ago Bogle said not to expect equity returns higher than 8% annualized over the next decade - 6 years later VTSAX has returned closer to 12...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?
Replies: 76
Views: 8699

Re: Why don't things "feel" bubbly?

If it is true that the climate doesn't "feel" bubbly (and I'm not saying one way or the other), then I would take that as a bearish signal as opposed to a bullish one. It's been said many times to be fearful in an investment climate with the bluest of skies, and greedy when there is the pr...
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4328

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

At some point, prices really have to matter. They mattered to Bogle in the late 90s, and he took action based upon that. This fact is well documented.
by azanon
Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4328

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

Yet the authors of the article failed to mention that stocks have been "overpriced" according to Shiller's PE10 for almost 25 years straight (brief exception for a few months in 2008-2009). I don't agree with that interpretation of P/E 10 being overvalued, and I doubt Shiller would either...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting interview with the head guy from Betterment
Replies: 19
Views: 2252

Re: Interesting interview with the head guy from Betterment

Long-time OnTheMoney viewer. I've never seen a host be so rude to a guest on that particular show, and instigate an attack like that. Now someone who's not a routine viewer might have thought that was normal for that show, so maybe if you're used to CNN/Fox News/interviews etc. you might think it wa...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

I already pointed out the lie. If Vanguard believes investors are best served with funds which are owned by the shareholders to control costs....that's not self-serving. Unless by self-serving you mean the company is owned by us the investors :) All I'm saying is I find that pretty convenient, espe...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

"You say Jon lied, where what I saw was Jon misspeaking on account of being attacked" I'll believe Jon misspoke when I see that he has retracted his clearly erroneous claim that Vanguard's incentives are aligned against the customer, as a way of promoting his company. Let's just say that ...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

I made my points on this Becky Vs. Jon (Betterment) quite clearly earlier, so I'll spare yet another clear rehash of that. I brought anyone that read it to the watering hole AFAIK. I'll just say that I've been watching that show about 4 years now, I DVR'ed it and never miss an episode, and this dat...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

I made my points on this Becky Vs. Jon (Betterment) quite clearly earlier, so I'll spare yet another clear rehash of that. I brought anyone that read it to the watering hole AFAIK. I'll just say that I've been watching that show about 4 years now, I DVR'ed it and never miss an episode, and this date...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

I've watched OnTheMoney for quite a while now (2-3 years or so)? In short, i was quite shocked how rude Becky Quick was to Jon Stein. She was attacking him so hard, it was easy to see how Jon misspoke a few times, being put on the defense like that when he was probably under the impression prior to...
by azanon
Mon Mar 06, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

I've watched OnTheMoney for quite a while now (2-3 years or so)? In short, i was quite shocked how rude Becky Quick was to Jon Stein. She was attacking him so hard, it was easy to see how Jon misspoke a few times, being put on the defense like that when he was probably under the impression prior to ...
by azanon
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5228

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

Just a general comment, If I knew, today, which active fund company will be that one that will outperform for the next 15 years, I'd switch to it from Vanguard and invest. Since I don't know which it'll be, i'll take that bird in the hand and pay as little as possible with Vanguard. And since virtua...
by azanon
Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?
Replies: 45
Views: 5228

Re: Why is American funds returns too good to be true?

daveydoo Unfortunately your criticism is without merit as shown in the article, which if haven't read it might help. The funds generated fairly large alphas over the period, so that is risk adjusted returns. You can go back longer and see strong results for American funds. I use 15 year returns for...
by azanon
Wed Feb 15, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time
Replies: 25
Views: 3971

Re: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time

Wall Street Journal Reports: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time That's an odd way of putting it. Since I invest with them too, I hope there's not a second or third time, or worst of all, the only time it happened and it'll never happen again. :shock: It's not that odd, they reached 4T in a...
by azanon
Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time
Replies: 25
Views: 3971

Re: Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time

MFInvestor wrote:Wall Street Journal Reports:

Vanguard Reaches $4 Trillion for First Time


That's an odd way of putting it. Since I invest with them too, I hope there's not a second or third time, or worst of all, the only time it happened and it'll never happen again. :shock:
by azanon
Wed Feb 08, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 10065

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

I agree that's a good point made about the IPS. If you've had one for years, and it has the traditional heavy allocation to US stock, then you've done outstanding for the past 7 years or so. If I were in that boat, yeah sure just hold it forever and maintain discipline. But I just drafted my new one...
by azanon
Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Underpeformance
Replies: 6
Views: 1074

Re: International Underpeformance

Vanguard (and most advisors) will never really be in a position to make radical negative valuation statements about the US Market. About the most they can do and get away with is creep their recommended international allocation higher and higher (which they're doing). Regarding the so far being accu...
by azanon
Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Underpeformance
Replies: 6
Views: 1074

Re: International Underpeformance

Any opinions on the underperformance of international stocks vs US? The 10 years return on the developed markets index is 1.03% vs the same for US total stock market index of 7.23%. Does this represent a fundamental difference in US companies or the US economic system vs non US? Or is it just a fun...
by azanon
Wed Feb 08, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 10065

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

I don't spook easy... but I'm very uneasy these days. :shock: Me too, so I bought some gold. Helps me to hang on a little while longer. But if CAPE hits 30, I'm outta here! (currently 28.34) The potentially lucrative thing about today is, P/E 10s for US stock is sky-high, future returns of bonds ar...
by azanon
Wed Feb 08, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 10065

Re: A note of caution from Robert Shiller

I don't spook easy... but I'm very uneasy these days. :shock: Me too, so I bought some gold. Helps me to hang on a little while longer. But if CAPE hits 30, I'm outta here! (currently 28.34) The potentially lucrative thing about today is, P/E 10s for US stock is sky-high, future returns of bonds ar...
by azanon
Thu Feb 02, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary
Replies: 50
Views: 6982

Re: Just watched Warren Buffett's new HBO Documentary

So a documentary about a guy who essentially played roulette, and just happened to pick the right color 15-20 times in a row. I imagine if stock picking really were completely random, we'd statistically have about one Warren B, by sheer mathematics. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it's that 1...
by azanon
Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

But my biggest issue is really of principle. I've spent loads of time researching robo advisors and chose Betterment because their fees were lower then the rest (ok, there are free ones, but I don't want to go there). Now, they've pulled the ladder from under me. Suddenly, they're more expensive th...
by azanon
Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Yeah, received an email last night. I was at the 0.15% tier. It is now a flat 0.25%. I'm gonna miss them. Why were you using them in the first place? Since the same question would apply to me, because the services they offer are worth 0.15% AUM, but not worth 0.25% AUM. Your question implies that f...
by azanon
Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Why were you using them in the first place? Since the same question would apply to me, because the services they offer are worth 0.15% AUM, but not worth 0.25% AUM. Your question implies that fee increase is not significant enough to warrant reconsideration. I would argue that if 0.25% is too much ...
by azanon
Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Why were you using them in the first place? Since the same question would apply to me, because the services they offer are worth 0.15% AUM, but not worth 0.25% AUM. Your question implies that fee increase is not significant enough to warrant reconsideration. I would argue that if 0.25% is too much ...
by azanon
Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Basically, any deal of this kind is about trust. I trusted Betterment and got burned badly. I am sure not to trust any robo adviser in a near future. Certainly not anything that has Jon Stein anywhere nearby. I should have known better.:( But all in all, it's a good thing they did this betrayal so ...
by azanon
Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Yeah, received an email last night. I was at the 0.15% tier. It is now a flat 0.25%. I'm gonna miss them. Why were you using them in the first place? Since the same question would apply to me, because the services they offer are worth 0.15% AUM, but not worth 0.25% AUM. Your question implies that f...
by azanon
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Hopefully with the help this forum provides, fewer people will need to count on these types of services. DIY isn't hard once you peruse the wiki and some of the other resources out there. While learning basics of investing, remember to live below your means and savings rate is the single most impor...
by azanon
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

Yeah, received an email last night. I was at the 0.15% tier. It is now a flat 0.25%. I'm gonna miss them. Why were you using them in the first place? Since the same question would apply to me, because the services they offer are worth 0.15% AUM, but not worth 0.25% AUM. Your question implies that f...
by azanon
Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Betterment just raised their costs.
Replies: 189
Views: 16167

Re: Betterment just raised their costs.

That's absolutely aweful news. I certainly withdrawal my support for Betterment. To pull the rug out from under 100K+ investors like that is just wrong. That's a massive increase in costs if you're investing with them with a sizeable portfolio.
by azanon
Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the best way to switch from Betterment to Vanguard LifeStrategy?
Replies: 8
Views: 987

Re: What's the best way to switch from Betterment to Vanguard LifeStrategy?

I'm new to investing, and opened an account with Betterment about 2 years ago. I've been depositing a little every month and have accumulated now about $150k with 5% returns (I'm in my mid 20's at the 33% tax bracket, if that's relevant). Most of the account comes from a deposit in August 2016, and...
by azanon
Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the best way to switch from Betterment to Vanguard LifeStrategy?
Replies: 8
Views: 987

Re: What's the best way to switch from Betterment to Vanguard LifeStrategy?

I'm new to investing, and opened an account with Betterment about 2 years ago. I've been depositing a little every month and have accumulated now about $150k with 5% returns (I'm in my mid 20's at the 33% tax bracket, if that's relevant). Most of the account comes from a deposit in August 2016, and...
by azanon
Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP?
Replies: 13
Views: 1515

Re: TSP?

I distinguish between cash and T-Bills. Cash? open your wallet or purse and that's cash. Cash earns 0% before inflation and is always negative return after inflation. T-bills are T-bills, and I think they are decent investments. Granted no match for the G-fund (since G-fund is composite yield of 4yr...
by azanon
Thu Jan 26, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSP?
Replies: 13
Views: 1515

Re: TSP?

It has the risk of cash, and the yield of intermediate bonds. What are you measuring, risk or yield? But if you're speaking generally, thinking of it as cash really under-appreciates the investment. Cash is terribly vulnerable to inflation, whereas the G fund eats inflation for lunch, and then some.
by azanon
Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 12081

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Dang I saw this too late. Would have gone with the PMURT Fund:

Long: RSX, EIS
Short: FXI, EWW
Market Neutral: SPY
by azanon
Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services vs Roboadvisors
Replies: 7
Views: 571

Re: Vanguard Personal Advisor Services vs Roboadvisors

I can speak from the perspective of Betterment since I was with them. They charge 0.15% for AUM if you have a portfolio north of 100K (no other hidden fees). They differ from VPAS in that the way their system is designed, it's not really designed for human interaction. They have a goal-based system ...
by azanon
Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2615

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

Is volatility a good measure of risk? I say so, and so have a vast array of investment professionals. I'll just have to agree to disagree. Having high volatility means whatever asset class you own can drop sharply or rise sharply. If you own an asset class that can rise sharply or drop sharply, then...
by azanon
Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me
Replies: 37
Views: 2615

Re: Skeptical of the hidden risk in Value - convince me

I don't see the distinction between value and growth. If a company has high earnings the company will spend it on growing the company. If a company is growing, its earnings will seem depressed because accelerated depreciation. If a company has a very high stock price, it can issue more stock to gro...
by azanon
Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How To Sell Finance Books Like Harry Dent"
Replies: 11
Views: 1113

Re: "How To Sell Finance Books Like Harry Dent"

I would exhibit caution about calling or implying that any book is inherently dangerous. Just speaking for me, I've always prided myself in having a rational and open-mind, and the only reason I think many of my ideas have a solid foundation is because I'm always willing to hear someone else out, or...

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