Search found 1762 matches

by azanon
Mon May 21, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."
Replies: 262
Views: 47079

Re: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."

I'm not buying the only 3% figure have a 529. I have a kid, so of course I have a 529. It's the best deal out there, but I admit it helps that my state has a decent one which allows a deduction up to 5K along with the federal deduction.
by azanon
Mon May 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3625

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I wonder if corporates are a better diversifier for a heavy growth/quality tilt. They're definitely not for value, though I think the structure of Fallen Angel indexes means they could be uniquely suited to harvest value in bonds (a vast array of good bonds get degraded in the crisis and then sprin...
by azanon
Mon May 21, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3625

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I wonder if corporates are a better diversifier for a heavy growth/quality tilt. They're definitely not for value, though I think the structure of Fallen Angel indexes means they could be uniquely suited to harvest value in bonds (a vast array of good bonds get degraded in the crisis and then sprin...
by azanon
Sat May 19, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

This topic is a great example how people extrapolate their own situation to others without even bothering to understand that others are in different situation. Similar thing is taking place in the other topic which OP is being advised to do Roth conversion even though that is the wrong thing in his...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

(A) is balanced and diversified across all possible future tax scenarios. (B) only works out in one possible outcome. Do you really want to bet all your retirement outcome on one tax basket? I don't think we disagree. For me, getting closer to position (A) has meant focusing more on Roth these days...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

While I said above I'm 22% tax bracket today, I also said I expect to have a ~ 35K/year pension and 2 social securities (probably combined good for another 30K). In short, those 0 tax and low tax brackets will be filled by that 60K. So I'm going to completely fill up the 0% bracket, and almost fill...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I haven't had a chance to read the entire thread yet, but I would think the really wise folks are going Roth because it provides for the most room for the tax-sheltered money. Specifically, there is no doubt at all that 18,500 in a Roth is worth more than 18,500 in a traditional. Philosophically, a...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

This is being made unnecessarily confusing. My household gross income is well under 200K, but I'm able to completely fund a $18,500 Roth 401(k) and 2, $5,500 Roth IRA accounts, despite the taxes my wife and I owe on our income. If one can do that, it is easily a better choice than using traditional...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

It potentially costs you more for each dollar going into a Roth, but it is likely worth more to you after it's already in (provided you will only withdraw it after age 59.5 when you can make qualified tax-free withdrawals). If you don't have other taxable income to bring your marginal rate up to wh...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Let's say you're doing so well, you have $24,000 to save for retirement (assume taxes for that year paid), and your savings options are a $18.500 Roth/Traditional from your employer and a $5,500 Roth/Traditional IRA. Regardless of your tax rate, surely, you wouldn't opt for the traditional account!...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I haven't had a chance to read the entire thread yet, but I would think the really wise folks are going Roth because it provides for the most room for tax sheltered money. Specifically, there is no doubt at all that 18,500 in a Roth is worth more than 18,500 in a traditional. I think your interpret...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Specifically, there is no doubt at all that 18,500 in a Roth is worth more than 18,500 in a traditional. There is lots of doubt about that because it is not true for most people. Consider this analogy: I have a gold coin and I offer to sell it to you and I give you two options: Option 1: You pay me...
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I haven't had a chance to read the entire thread yet, but I would think the really wise folks are going Roth because it provides for the most room for tax sheltered money. Specifically, there is no doubt at all that 18,500 in a Roth is worth more than 18,500 in a traditional.
by azanon
Fri May 18, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Roth or Roth type accounts win out regardless of your current tax rate vs. whatever future rate you May I ask what is/was your marginal tax rate during your accumulation period? If you are at the highest tax rate now/while accumulating, aren't you simply betting on higher future tax rates? From wha...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

It's illogical to leave the future tax rate "wildcard" in play, if you can completely take it out of play with a Roth, or Roth 401(k). What are we, some 20 trillion or thereabouts in debt? I don't recall the exact numbers, but in the early 20th century, didn't tax brackets get higher than 50%? So m...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

How the heck does one retirement plan with an account full of traditionals and taxables anyway? What's the tax rate 20 years from now? I'm super glad that's not my problem. Now if I had mostly taxables because I was so wealthy I didn't qualify for the tax-advantaged accounts, I imagine I could mana...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

If you believe that inflation rate is going up, money now is worth a lot more than money in the future. The government may get the same or more taxes from the tax-deferred folks. But, we still win because of the inflation. If I were completely honest and had to use a crystal ball, I think we're in ...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 425
Views: 20695

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

I pondered the traditional vs. Roth for a very long time (since I have both options in my 401(k)), and this is where I finally settled out on: It's illogical to leave the future tax rate "wildcard" in play, if you can completely take it out of play with a Roth, or Roth 401(k). What are we, some 20 t...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lexus RX 350, Audi Q5, or Volvo XC 60
Replies: 103
Views: 6500

Re: Lexus RX 350, Audi Q5, or Volvo XC 60

All three of those are truly nice cars, and it's hard to go wrong with any of them. It really comes down to doing test drives and determining which one wows you the most. I would also look at the new '19 Acura RDX. It will be cheaper than Lexus & the German brands: https://www.acura.com/future-vehi...
by azanon
Thu May 17, 2018 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 39
Views: 2813

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

It's pretty clear what the contrarians are buying: Large-cap growth. And they've been handsomely rewarded for having done so since about 2009 (~ 1.3% CAGR alpha despite slightly less standard deviation vs. total market). I mean, is there even any investor left that ranks as at least casual, that has...
by azanon
Mon May 14, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is there a boglehead muscle car?
Replies: 138
Views: 7079

Re: Is there a boglehead muscle car?

I drive a Mk6 VW GTI that I’ve taken to Stage 2+ using parts and software from Unitronic. It was quite a fun project to take a modestly priced sports car and make it so fast. GTIs go for mid 20s to mid 30s and my mods were about 8 grand including labor for everything.
by azanon
Fri May 11, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

You have to unfreeze if applying for new credit, not if making a product change (i.e., swapping one type of card for another with the same company). Call the credit card company, and ask them with credit bureau they use. Usually they will stay on the line with you while you use your computer to unf...
by azanon
Fri May 11, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

I know it's Dave Ramsey.... but I found this answer interesting regarding the question posed, "When should I freeze my credit?": https://www.daveramsey.com/askdave/debt/when-should-i-freeze-my-credit Here's an excerpt: "They’re fairly difficult to unfreeze. You just don’t want to jump in and out of ...
by azanon
Fri May 11, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

Believe me, if you knew me, you'd realize you're speaking to the choir. By comparison to the average Joe, I'm as conservative and as careful as they come. I am a Boglehead, afterall. My largest struggle in life is that it's often not that exciting because I have contingencies for just about everythi...
by azanon
Fri May 11, 2018 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

Personally I guess I should be happy there are still easier targets out there. My sentiments exactly. A certain level of risk management is warranted, but there are a lot of people that are tormented daily by fear about all the possible things that can go wrong in their life, and occasionally I ref...
by azanon
Thu May 10, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

I'm very careful with all my personal info as well; never give out SSN or answer Nigeria emails. However, Experian allowed all my information to be taken so I'm exposed. For millions of us the threat is now real regardless of how careful we are. That was the reason I added identity monitoring servi...
by azanon
Thu May 10, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

Then there's not using a variety of credit monitoring services, that include insurance, that are available for the specific purpose of identity theft prevention in lieu of freezing your credit (I use one, fwiw). Regarding this statement - who has services that provide identity theft prevention ? Ho...
by azanon
Thu May 10, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agressive factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 4027

Re: Agressive factor Investing

I'm interested in what you and others think "aggressive" means in the context of factor-based investing. Bogleheads: The investing industry uses the word "aggressive" as a euphemism for "risky." They also use the word "high-yield for "junk bonds". Act as if every broker, insurance salesman, mutual ...
by azanon
Wed May 09, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

Yes, of course. Don't take credit freezing lightly, as it's a pretty drastic step for identity theft prevention (IMO), and really it would have been best to realize the ramifications of having done so prior to freezing. I wouldn't call a 5 minute on-line action a "drastic step" - it can save you 1 ...
by azanon
Tue May 08, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?
Replies: 50
Views: 3135

Re: Do I need to unfreeze my credit before applying for a new card?

Yes, of course. Don't take credit freezing lightly, as it's a pretty drastic step for identity theft prevention (IMO), and really it would have been best to realize the ramifications of having done so prior to freezing.
by azanon
Tue May 08, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 6965

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

FWIW, I'm not buying the notion that factors are now the be-all, end-all, and that the only relevance of various stock market sectors is the extent to which they express the various identified factors. Someone needs to make a call in to CNBC, Wall Street Journal, etc. and tell them that they're wast...
by azanon
Wed May 02, 2018 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Windfall advice for an overwhelmed person
Replies: 7
Views: 1404

Re: Windfall advice for an overwhelmed person

This one's easy-peasy; You pay all of the debt, yes houses included. The reason probably "most" of us don't pay off our house is because our money is tax-advantaged and there's penalties to taking money out of those types of accounts to pay off a mortgage. But if you have just regular taxable money ...
by azanon
Sun Apr 22, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Too much Bogleheads.org?
Replies: 79
Views: 11088

Re: Too much Bogleheads.org?

A successful index fund investor goes through four phases: 1) Darkness - takes advice from everyone; 2) Enlightenment - realizes a market return is superior to their return; 3) Complexity - overdoing everything to find optimal; 4) Simplicity - invests in a few total market funds Dear OP, You’re in ...
by azanon
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13217

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Rick I recall seeing your worked with Alex Benke of Betterment a few years back. You do realize that Betterment also uses BNDX in their portfolios? Betterment definitely would have no reason to use BNDX as opposed to just US bonds except for the fact that they believe that it enhances the risk-adjus...
by azanon
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13217

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

As a non-financial expert (I'm a biologist), I confess to having them in my portfolio mainly because the 5.x trillion dollar Vanguard recommends that I have them. I admit I am trusting that they are recommending them because they believe them to be in my best interest, and not their own. As a power...
by azanon
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13217

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

As a non-financial expert (I'm a biologist), I confess to having them in my portfolio mainly because the 5.x trillion dollar Vanguard recommends that I have them. I admit I am trusting that they are recommending them because they believe them to be in my best interest, and not their own. As a powerh...
by azanon
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15665

Re: Regular 4% withdrawals can be ridiculous.

Bogleheads: Limiting withdrawals to 4% is obviously ridiculous when you are as old as I am (94). Best wishes. Taylor I couldn't agree more. Looking at VPW, if you did an age -5 to 10 years (accounting for your good long-life fortune!), it'd suggest somewhere in the 8-12% range. I know you don't use...
by azanon
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15665

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

It's reckless if you use it for anything other than a reasonable starting point. 4% the first year? Sure no problem. 4% of the original balance, then adjust for inflation for subsequent years, but never looking at your changing balance again and hope it doesn't runs out?; You have no business manag...
by azanon
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15665

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless. Statist...
by azanon
Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 15665

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

A disservice is done every time the Trinity study is equated to a retirement income withdrawal strategy. As the latter, it would have to be the worst method. The thought of setting a withdrawal rate, then never looking again at actual outcome, portfolio balance, inflation, etc. is reckless.
by azanon
Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3937

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I believe that Meb Faber is highly intelligent, very honest, very knowledgeable, and that his etfs are solidly built on existing backtesting research. The question is: does that reliably equate to improved returns for investors after costs going forward? Thus far in the short lifespan of Meb's fund...
by azanon
Fri Apr 13, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3937

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I have been listening to Meb's podcast and it is a good one. Has anyone from here invested with Cambria? I checked the website and there is 0% management fee to invest into the Trinity funds, which are rated 1-6 from least to most aggressive, with a $100K minimum. I believe you pay per fund though,...
by azanon
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5947

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

According to StarCapital it's the country with lowest CAPE and P/B ratio and thus with highest long time expected results. Today the index lost more than 10% in Euro terms. If one wants to tilt to value, do you think this is an opportunity to overweight Russia in one's AA? (and what maximal proport...
by azanon
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5947

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

According to StarCapital it's the country with lowest CAPE and P/B ratio and thus with highest long time expected results. Today the index lost more than 10% in Euro terms. If one wants to tilt to value, do you think this is an opportunity to overweight Russia in one's AA? (and what maximal proport...
by azanon
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5947

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

According to StarCapital it's the country with lowest CAPE and P/B ratio and thus with highest long time expected results. Today the index lost more than 10% in Euro terms. If one wants to tilt to value, do you think this is an opportunity to overweight Russia in one's AA? (and what maximal proport...
by azanon
Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6108

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

How exactly are t-bills a risky asset long-term, when they historically have kept up with inflation? His first statement was the more correct one; they're close to a risk free asset, and I would add for any length of time. I haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast yet though. Maybe there's a ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6108

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

How exactly are t-bills a risky asset long-term, when they historically have kept up with inflation? His first statement was the more correct one; they're close to a risk free asset, and I would add for any length of time. I haven't had a chance to listen to the podcast yet though. Maybe there's a c...
by azanon
Wed Apr 04, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: This-millennial-couple-is-saving-150000-a-year-and-plans-to-retire-by-2029-heres-how-they-
Replies: 136
Views: 10784

Re: This-millennial-couple-is-saving-150000-a-year-and-plans-to-retire-by-2029-heres-how-they-

Sounds like they should start a business promoting a frugal lifestyle and then make a lot of money off it while claiming to not be working. Ok ok ok ok ok. I laughed out loud in my office, literally. Thanks! :sharebeer Ain't this the truth. Most of the notable early retirees that run blogs on the i...
by azanon
Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing
Replies: 11
Views: 1817

Re: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing

Ok i missed this when i skimmed it earlier: He intentionally chose a measured period where stocks and bonds performed similarly. So yeah sure if you pick a period where the actual returns are the same, then rebalancing should raise returns. That's just basic "free lunch" of a diversified portfolio. ...
by azanon
Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing
Replies: 11
Views: 1817

Re: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing

This is contrary to my understanding. It was my understanding that, generally speaking, rebalancing would, on average, lower both your risk and return since, again on average, you'll be selling stocks and buying bonds since stocks grow faster than bonds long-term.