Search found 1357 matches

by azanon
Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Email from VG - Vanguard Rep is on Leave ??
Replies: 18
Views: 2084

Re: Email from VG - Vanguard Rep is on Leave ??

I would think this also has a lot to do their "new" Personal Advisory Services. They have to distinguish that from even Flagship, so perhaps part of how they did that was downgrading Flagship and lower tiers.
by azanon
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 685

Re: International Bonds

I don't see the point in just focusing on those actives. They're including them in their passives too, as already stated. Vanguard's latest paper on global fixed income: https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrifi_032012_high.pdf Those active funds that you listed are never going to go completely in or...
by azanon
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds
Replies: 118
Views: 11788

Re: Bogle Doubles Down on US Index Funds

I don't know why folks are surprised by his position. I don't know too many people even close to his age that are fans of International investing. He's probably as open to that as I am, and ever will be, to bitcoin investing.
by azanon
Wed Jun 14, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 685

Re: International Bonds

I use Total Bond for all of the bond portfolio. I have avoided Total International Bond because of the higher expense, lower credit quality, lower yield, and higher duration. In reviewing the bond portfolio of Wellesley Income, Core Bond, and Intermediate Term Investment Grade funds I noticed they ...
by azanon
Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 39
Views: 3648

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

In this post , I did a Portfolio Visualizer run comparing an 80/20 LifeStrategy fund and a 60/40 LifeStrategy fund for the 20-year time frame 1995 to 2015. The difference was about 0.2% CAGR per year. Ha! Which over say a 40 year accumulation period adds up to having 10% more money. So when you ret...
by azanon
Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 39
Views: 3648

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

I'd come at it from the opposite angle that you anticipated. Even a 60/40 is an equity-dominated portfolio and stocks will explain 90%+ of any volatility that you experience. You're still placing a heavy bet on stocks, so if that's your concern that you weren't, I assure you that you still are. I'll...
by azanon
Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard believes in active managment
Replies: 19
Views: 1481

Re: Vanguard believes in active managment

I'd probably be hard for them to not believe in active management, given that the equal-weighted performance of their actives vs. passives is ahead by 0.35% over a 30-yr period, despite the higher fees of the active management. (reference: "The case for Vanguard active management: Solving the l...
by azanon
Fri May 26, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?
Replies: 28
Views: 4566

Re: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

I think it's more risky than it has to be. Let me explain. My opinion on Total Bond fund changed one day ago when I just happened to pull up its portfolio mix, and pay a bit more attention to it than I had in times past. Up until then, I had just assumed the fund was a mixture of various types of bo...
by azanon
Thu May 25, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2368

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

One thing I've been thinking about recently that concerns value vs. growth stock, is that I think it's important to at least consider how one might expect the stock component of your portfolio to interact with the remaining portions of your portfolio. For example, I have a separate "project&quo...
by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2610

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Just read through the most recent threads here on Schiller, and done a bit of searching elsewhere. This is probably a basic question, but here it is: Does the Schiller CAPE predictions about future returns consider the start date, or is it start date insensitive? Here's what I mean: Does Schiller C...
by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question on Shiller CAPE predictions
Replies: 66
Views: 2610

Re: Question on Schiller CAPE predictions

Remember that CAPE 'implied' in March, 2009, that equities were far overpriced, when in reality it was quite likely the best time to buy in most of our lifetimes. This is simply not true. CAPE in March of 09 was 13.32 (source: Robert Shiller's Online database), and the average historical CAPE to da...
by azanon
Tue May 23, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Invest in Average?
Replies: 34
Views: 3179

Re: Why Invest in Average?

I don't know why you guys are settling on average either. All you have to do to beat that is find a good growth stock mutual fund averaging at least 12% returns, and a manager with a good track record of at least 5 years. This is what Dave Ramsey says, and he says the one he picked has done 12% sinc...
by azanon
Sat May 13, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3467

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

I agree with the OP. I like the question that Zvi Bodie wants others to ask themselves, which is what is the least amount of risk one can take and still meet your financial goals. I think that makes a lot of sense. So, you might be able to save enough or work long enough that you can't really justif...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9422

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

I feel like this is begging the question, particularly because somewhere around a 30/70 has the highest Sharpe ratio, thus mathematically works best. So, why do most people use a 60/40 even though a 30/70, or thereabouts, is the most optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio? My guess would be because...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9422

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

For 1950-1969 (twenty years) For stocks and long-term government bonds, the optimum was 100% stocks. Yes. For stocks and intermediate-term government bonds, the optimum was 36/64. And I suspect if you factor load the stocks, the optimal allocation for stocks would probably drop below 36/64 (for tho...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9422

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

All he is claiming is that 60/40 is better than 0/100 or 100/0. OK, I'll accept that. But to my eyeball it looks like 35/65 or thereabouts has been better than 60/40 in "nearly all time periods." The 60/40 allocation is anomalously high in stocks, and I've yet to see a clear explanation o...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9422

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

I have always been a 60/40 guy even when I was younger. So I'd like to get your opinion on why you think the 60/40 asset allocation has always worked so well. Why it has stood the test of time. I feel like this is begging the question, particularly because somewhere around a 30/70 has the highest S...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18537

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I'm now almost 44...and I would give anything to go back 20 years, buy 24 year old me a beer, and thank me for being a long-term thinking kinda guy. I'd tell him his long view has bought us options, lots of them, and many nights of stress free sleep. I'd tell about the $5000 MRI procedure as a resu...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 18537

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

I'm now almost 44...and I would give anything to go back 20 years, buy 24 year old me a beer, and thank me for being a long-term thinking kinda guy. I'd tell him his long view has bought us options, lots of them, and many nights of stress free sleep. I'd tell about the $5000 MRI procedure as a resu...
by azanon
Mon May 08, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 61
Views: 7997

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

15% Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF (VOT) 0.07% 15% Vanguard International Explorer Fund (VINEX) 0.42% or VSS 0.13% 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) 0.34% 15% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) 0.07% 30% PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS ETF (LTPZ) 0.20% 7.5% ETFS Bloomberg All C...
by azanon
Fri May 05, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 61
Views: 7997

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Another portfolio revision (inspired by Tag :mrgreen: ) 15% Vanguard Selected Value Fund (VASVX) 0.39% 15% Vanguard International Explorer Fund (VINEX) 0.42% 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) 0.34% 15% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) 0.07% 30% PIMCO 15+ Year US ...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5720

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Azanon, I understand your point. Didn't Einstein say "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler"? I think Larry would simply say rebalancing an 8 investment portfolio is really no more complicated than a 3 fund portfolio. If the benefits to adding different sources ...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5720

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

I would like to believe even "active" investors follow some sort of rules or data, or trading system, and aren't just acting on a hunch! I'm reminded of Mebane Faber's momentum strategy here: http://mebfaber.com/timing-model/ As the link gives away, he even entitles it a "timing model...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5720

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Is factor investing really passive, what with new factors being added to funds yearly and new screens being implemented? This is same question I'm essentially raising too, and perhaps it is even a rhetorical one. That sounds more like tactical investing or tactical asset allocation. So my concern w...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5720

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

I was just watching some old youtube videos of Larry last night. They were great - he was hitting the high points of low cost, total market investing, and cautioning against wall street attempting to make money off of you with any variety of excuses for you to do it. I miss the old Larry and this ne...
by azanon
Wed May 03, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy more AMD [should I?]
Replies: 9
Views: 1185

Re: Buy more AMD [should I?]

No I'd sell what you have and then short it too. You're catching the drop early. This could be a big money maker. :oops:
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I apologize for the snark - I deleted that opener from my post.

Ok i read your post, and have no new information to add to this item.
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Who besides me remembers the 90s, when "smart beta" was anything growth, or maximum growth. I remember a time when only chumps were buying value, and that time was a good decade long. I wonder what the factor(s) du-jour will be 10 years from now. You mean like this paper , published in 19...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Who besides me remembers the 90s, when "smart beta" was anything growth, or maximum growth. I remember a time when only chumps were buying value, and that time was a good decade long.

I wonder what the factor(s) du-jour will be 10 years from now.
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I would welcome a 1-2% extra return in exchange for extra risk. It is difficult to obtain equity exposure greater than 100%. At my age my use of bonds is very limited, and I use them sparingly (<10% of allocation). My point was, if I were only getting 1-2% extra and it wasn't just "alpha"...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

I would welcome a 1-2% extra return in exchange for extra risk. It is difficult to obtain equity exposure greater than 100%. At my age my use of bonds is very limited, and I use them sparingly (<10% of allocation). My point was, if I were only getting 1-2% extra and it wasn't just "alpha"...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

Taylor, Much respect to your for the wisdom you provide. However, it is not true that factor investing has to be expensive. I have a significantly tilted portfolio and I will never pay more than 0.15% in expense ratio; in fact taxes on my dividends cost me twice as much per year as fund expenses. R...
by azanon
Tue May 02, 2017 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising
Replies: 60
Views: 5581

Re: Vanguard's Jack Bogle Warns Smart Beta May Be Over-Promising

The real turnoff for me (about smart beta) is that even proponents of it will admit that all of these factors generally are at a higher risk (e.g Value is higher risk than market, small-cap is higher risk than total market, etc.), so even if it's an extra 1-2% return, how much of that expected retur...
by azanon
Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6615

Re: Investing $1M

With Vanguard, in contrast, WYSIWYG .... or if it changes, it'll probably just get even cheaper. For the levels you're considering investing, I'd also be concerned about insurance. In a dire straights situation, I'd like my odds better with Vanguard vs. Betterment. One other thing - the "read ...
by azanon
Fri Apr 28, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pairing "Life Expectancy" withdrawals with SS delay to 70
Replies: 0
Views: 322

Pairing "Life Expectancy" withdrawals with SS delay to 70

While I was reviewing my eventual TSP withdrawal options, I was intrigued to learn that the withdrawal based on life expectancy model causes payments to steadily rise, and at a very fast rate, and then suddenly drops at age 70 before it begins to rise again for subsequent years. As I understand it, ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...
Replies: 34
Views: 4535

Re: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...

Wolfgang are you using 2 different accounts (also cunobelinus)? I can't tell for sure if this is two different complaints or the same person.
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5776

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%. I'm not su...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5776

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%. I'm not su...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5776

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

As of 04/27/2017, the expense ratio on your Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares has changed from 0.05% to 0.04%. That is a 20% decrease in cost- where else can you save that much in one day!!!!! By switching to Schwab's total market fund you could decrease those costs by 25% - all...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%
Replies: 56
Views: 5776

Re: Vanguard New Lower ER .04%

Wow, so they're technically cheaper than even the TSP alternatives now. C fund is 0.038% + 0.004% Administrative expenses (so 0.042% total), and S fund is also 0.038% + 0.041% Administrative (so 0.079% total). So a "total US stock" mix of those two will run approximately 0.05%.
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5
Replies: 28
Views: 4422

Re: "I don't want to wait till I'm 59.5

> Roth contributions can be withdrawn anytime, tax and penalty free (provided you've had the account 5 years I believe?). If you've contributed to a Roth your entire career and are at, at least 50, your contribution tally will likely be fairly decent. > You can take "substantially equal periodi...
by azanon
Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6615

Re: Investing $1M

Opinions on the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund? https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/managed-payout/#/ Personally, I think it's outstanding. It has an expense ratio of (effective) 0.23% percent. The 0.38% ER that they report actually includes the trading costs associated with the Alternative St...
by azanon
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement income for 50+ years?
Replies: 167
Views: 14950

Re: Retirement income for 50+ years?

Yes, I got here by taking big risks and regularly staring death in the face for over 10 years building a company. I could easily be here with near-zero assets instead of 8 figs, or if things had played out differently I could be here with 9 or even 10 figs. None of what we're discussing feels that ...
by azanon
Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $1M
Replies: 57
Views: 6615

Re: Investing $1M

Opinions on the Vanguard Managed Payout Fund? https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/managed-payout/#/ Personally, I think it's outstanding. It has an expense ratio of (effective) 0.23% percent. The 0.38% ER that they report actually includes the trading costs associated with the Alternative St...
by azanon
Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...
Replies: 34
Views: 4535

Re: USAA 2.5% unlimited Cash back Card - Weird...

I applied for this card last week, and the approval process (wait) was about 10 seconds.
by azanon
Sun Apr 23, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2818

Re: "Commodities in Your Porfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

Gee, it has only been a decade or so of under-performance. You have to give these things time - maybe a couple of generations, but think of the tail risks you avoid. You have to ignore the actual return of commodities and consider the risk adjusted return of the portfolio. Dale I remember the epic ...
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The great commodities debate
Replies: 39
Views: 6731

Re: The great commodities debate

Hey Rick, welcome back!

........

Re: commodities, you can get them much cheaper now; BCI goes for just 0.29% ER (Bloomberg commodities Index)
by azanon
Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 37555

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

As someone who participates on a variety of forums with wide ranging topics, I can say that by comparison, this forum is very tightly moderated (not a criticism, just an observation). I'd be surprised if someone could even find a post with a personal attack that isn't already deleted, and also the o...

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