Search found 1441 matches

by azanon
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4141

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

One thing, though, that always helps me temper my fear of stock bear markets is to take a peek at a graph that depicts asset class real drawdowns over a very long term. Take a look at figure 9 here: http://mebfaber.com/2015/03/02/chapter-1-a-history-of-stocks-bonds-and-bills/ (you'll have to scroll ...
by azanon
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

naha66 wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:12 pm
What kind of experience does Wellington have in international investing?
Considering they have offices located in Beijing, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, London, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Luxembourg, and Zurich, I'm hoping at least a fair bit of experience.
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

SirRunsabit wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:27 pm
Been checking daily myself.

Glad to see other folks are excited too. :sharebeer
Yup. I plan to dump quite a bit of $$ into Global Wellington. :mrgreen:
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6681

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Azanon, I think the difference between Larry’s expected returns and some other people’s is that Larry’s firm assumes no change in the speculative component. Dave I'd like to see him explain more why they exclude so many components (like fx change estimation), particularly because most sites that ar...
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6681

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

So someone's math is wrong, and as analytical as the folks at researchaffiliates are, i don't like Larry's odds in that competition. Predicting the future and math are really two different things. 8-) That's a Strawman. If you want to discuss that, it's about assessing probabilities of an occurrenc...
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6681

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Actually, a large % of US company revenue is from internationally. So even if you are 100% in US stock, you still have exposure to Intl market. It goes both ways, so that argument nulls itself out. I guess I'm a contrarian, I'm all US equities and bonds. I use to hold 50% foreign stocks, but not an...
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6681

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:23 pm
Actually, a large % of US company revenue is from internationally. So even if you are 100% in US stock, you still have exposure to Intl market.
It goes both ways, so that argument nulls itself out.
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Does anyone know an easy way I can track when these will be launched? I asked Vanguard on their facebook page when the launch is, and the response was "mid-october". I asked if there was any way to invest prior to launch, and the answer was no. So, so far the only way I know how to track this is to...
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Does anyone know an easy way I can track when these will be launched? I asked Vanguard on their facebook page when the launch is, and the response was "mid-october". I asked if there was any way to invest prior to launch, and the answer was no. So, so far the only way I know how to track this is to ...
by azanon
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 73
Views: 6681

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

So Larry is being a LOT more kind to US stock expected returns than, say, researchaffiliates (and many other sites, I might add). Researchaffiliates puts the "valuation based" expected return of US stocks slightly below US Intermediate treasury bonds, despite how much riskier in terms of volatility ...
by azanon
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please define "cash"
Replies: 31
Views: 1929

Re: Please define "cash"

I read or understood you to have said that cash is not useful to hold in a portfolio. If you meant something else, sorry for the misunderstanding. And, yes, I do tend to distinguish cash and cash equivalents from bonds. Bonds, or debt instruments, are varying degrees of more volatile/risky than cash...
by azanon
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please define "cash"
Replies: 31
Views: 1929

Re: Please define "cash"

I think the discussion of what is cash is not very interesting because cash in the pure sense is not a useful asset to hold in the sense of asset allocation. If a person does have a reason to hold cash it is still sufficient to just consider this a form of fixed income for portfolio purposes. I fou...
by azanon
Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 134
Views: 8868

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

Nisiprius - the quality of his posts are simply outstanding. I even enjoy the rare post of his that I disagree with. Bill Bernstein - The "why" should mostly go without saying. Cause he's "THE" Bill Bernstein? Well, of all of the various finance books I've read, I generally have enjoyed his the most...
by azanon
Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Betterment Portfolio Strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 2917

Re: New Betterment Portfolio Strategies

sunnywindy wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:03 pm
It all seems weird. I thought ROBO accounts existed to make investment decisions for you.
So true. Didn't this all start to ease our worries and give us one simple solution? Back in the old robo days, you only needed to give your age and goal for the money, and they'd take care of the rest.
by azanon
Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Betterment Portfolio Strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 2917

Re: New Betterment Portfolio Strategies

Then if you like what Cambria does (Meb Faber), you can get a Meb Faber type portfolio using Betterment's platform via cambriainvestments.com - for a small nominal ER fee of about 0.75% :mrgreen: (plus the Betterment platform fees).
by azanon
Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?
Replies: 73
Views: 8209

Re: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?

As just a quick example, if you retired with 1 mil in 2000, and you have 1 mil today, you've actually run your portfolio down about 30%, since it has an inflation adjusted (to year 2000) value of $704,225 in 2017 dollars. My pension doesn't have a cost of living adjustment and inflation is defiantl...
by azanon
Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bosch dishwasher?
Replies: 90
Views: 6755

Re: Bosch dishwasher?

I bought a Bosch sight unseen due to repeated, high CR reviews. I really regret doing that. On both the upper and lower racks, the prongs (or whatever they're called) are way too close together. I have several plates or glasses that are thick enough that they either don't go in-between certain space...
by azanon
Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?
Replies: 73
Views: 8209

Re: Do retiree BHs actually run down their portfolios?

I see several boasts about having not run down their portfolio x years in retirement, x years being many years. More than half of these statements appear to be worded in nominal terms. But if you really want to know whether or not you've run your portfolio down, you need to correct for inflation. Pl...
by azanon
Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7944

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

But also 110 doesn't change the situation much for either of these posters. One mentioned 120, and the other 1000! I think we humans worry too much, and at often too great a price. Worrying is good. Worrying shortens our lives and protects us from living until 1000 and even 120. My general point, t...
by azanon
Wed Sep 06, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7944

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

But also 110 doesn't change the situation much for either of these posters. One mentioned 120, and the other 1000! I think we humans worry too much, and at often too great a price. Worrying is good. Worrying shortens our lives and protects us from living until 1000 and even 120. My general point, t...
by azanon
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7944

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Couple of thoughts I have on this: 1. VPW encourages a floor be established; Social security, pensions (if applicable), and annuities. I presume it encourages this to help stabilize the overall withdrawals (since VPW is "variable"), but also in the (very unlikely) event that you live past 100. 2. L...
by azanon
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower
Replies: 72
Views: 7944

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate -> 2% or lower

Another big variable is of course life expectancy. Only recently has serious study begun on life extension, and scientific breakthroughs are unpredictable. Aubrey De Grey has claimed that the first person to live to 1,000 has already been born. Of course, if we live that long, the economy will like...
by azanon
Thu Aug 31, 2017 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 68
Views: 12986

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

What a fantastic discussion! Thanks all. I stumbled on this topic from a Google search and wanted to ask what may be a naive question. In researching this strategy (and reading the white paper), it doesn't seem like much weighting is given to the probabilities of each market situation. For example,...
by azanon
Thu Aug 31, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 68
Views: 12986

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

Another portfolio revision (inspired by Tag :mrgreen: ) 15% Vanguard Selected Value Fund (VASVX) 0.39% 15% Vanguard International Explorer Fund (VINEX) 0.42% 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) 0.34% 15% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV) 0.07% 30% PIMCO 15+ Year US ...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

I'm not aware if anyone is "lauding" Wellington or Wellesley. I just ran a screener and made an observation that I found pretty shocking. Certainly anyone that doesn't believe in coincidences and rare repeatable, multi-decade long lucky streaks despite an active fee headwind would find it shocking ...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Just for fun, I occasionally sometimes go to www.portfoliovisualizer.com and run comparisons. About a week or two ago, I wanted to see if I could hand pick ANY Vanguard large-cap Value fund (Vanguard has 6), and pair that up with ANY high or medium quality, intermediate-term vanguard bond fund and ...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

azanon, you have brought up something I find very puzzling. Yes, W and W and very good active funds, as are other Vanguard active funds, and so are Dodge and Cox, TRPrice, and even American. My question is why, out of ~10,000 mutual funds, can we identify these few as outstanding? Vanguard has the ...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Interesting thread that may reflect differences between strict Bogleheads and those who ascribe to most or many or the concepts but with some variance at times. Tim Just a couple of nights ago, I was browsing through youtubes where Bogle was being interviewed, and I recall one where he was discussi...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Wellington is a decent active managed fund for a tax deferred account. I invested in the fund (for 10% of my portfolio). But Wellington has not performed well this 2017 YTD. It seems to revert back to the mean. Decent? wow. Know any balanced funds or ETFs you'd consider "great" at similar stock/bon...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Like the Harvard endowment, it will beat the market until it doesn't. The market (I assume you mean the stock market) and Harvard endowment, use completely different asset classes in their portfolios. I compared the same asset classes in the same proportions. I'm not against analogies as long as th...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Re: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Like the Harvard endowment, it will beat the market until it doesn't. The market (I assume you mean the stock market) and Harvard endowment, use completely different asset classes in their portfolios. I compared the same asset classes in the same proportions. I'm not against analogies as long as th...
by azanon
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance
Replies: 40
Views: 6017

Amazed by Vanguard Wellington's Performance

Are there any active funds that really cause you to consider that maybe it really is possible to outperform indexes? For me, Wellington definitely has to be one of them. Just for fun, I occasionally sometimes go to www.portfoliovisualizer.com and run comparisons. About a week or two ago, I wanted to...
by azanon
Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAA Closing my Roth - Question on Account Closing Fee
Replies: 10
Views: 1633

Re: USAA Closing my Roth - Question on Account Closing Fee

Yeah, that's what I meant when i said if you have that much Roth contributions left to do it. :D
by azanon
Mon Aug 21, 2017 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: USAA Closing my Roth - Question on Account Closing Fee
Replies: 10
Views: 1633

Re: USAA Closing my Roth - Question on Account Closing Fee

I'd get the account up to $500, then make them do a rollover to another Roth, assuming you have a Roth somewhere else, and assuming you have 400-490 worth of Roth contributions left for this year. That is - unless there's a rollover fee too. I'm a USAA member and I'm always surprised at how little f...
by azanon
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: IVLU for international value exposure [iShares Edge MSCI Intl Value]
Replies: 12
Views: 1461

Re: IVLU for international value exposure

I've considered IVLU before but what I found strange is that it is heavily exposed to Japan (41% IVLU vs 23% EFV). On the other hand, EFV is heavily exposed to the Financials sector (35% EFV vs 23% IVLU). In comparison, FNDF however has 22% japan and 20% financials so it seems better diversified. T...
by azanon
Fri Aug 18, 2017 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You mean early in the accumulation phase? :mrgreen: Deep in the phase you have a lot of money you really don't want to lose. What's this talk about losing money? I was 100% equities for several decades and, despite two huge "crashes," I never lost a dime. :confused Not true; we buy our portfolios e...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You mean early in the accumulation phase? :mrgreen: Deep in the phase you have a lot of money you really don't want to lose. What's this talk about losing money? I was 100% equities for several decades and, despite two huge "crashes," I never lost a dime. :confused Not true; we buy our portfolios e...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You mean early in the accumulation phase? :mrgreen: Deep in the phase you have a lot of money you really don't want to lose. What's this talk about losing money? I was 100% equities for several decades and, despite two huge "crashes," I never lost a dime. :confused Oh you're taking about paper lose...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You mean early in the accumulation phase? :mrgreen: Deep in the phase you have a lot of money you really don't want to lose. Haha, you're right of course. I meant early or in the middle of the accumulation phase. Though now that I think about it, you'd want it in the late phase too. Rather have had...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

You mean early in the accumulation phase? :mrgreen: Deep in the phase you have a lot of money you really don't want to lose.
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3959
Views: 1051860

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

This is so beautiful - I had moved my TSP money all to G fund (can't lose treasuries) by COB yesterday because I had already used up my 2 monthly trades and that's all they let you do. Fall baby fall until I reinvest next month! But hmm let's see, adding that up, I earned a lot more money with that ...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone planning on never retiring?
Replies: 138
Views: 10549

Re: Anyone planning on never retiring?

Seems like such a strange question to me. I only work for money. If I don't need money, I don't need work. I have a huge backlog of Steam games to play, let alone console games and TV series. And I'd actually have time to do things, like clean my house. And I could stay up until midnight and sleep ...
by azanon
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone planning on never retiring?
Replies: 138
Views: 10549

Re: Anyone planning on never retiring?

Muri, If I have any unfair bias about this sort of thing, it's probably the exact opposite of your view. At least a part of me feels sad and pities someone who can only find a worthwhile identify, and happiness, in an occupation; occupations most of which pay someone to do those jobs because they co...
by azanon
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2645

Re: Going passive is an active decision

A decision to allocate to a passive S&P 500 index is to say that you are ignoring what we believe is the most important determinant of long-term returns: valuation. At this point, you are no longer entitled to refer to yourself as an investor. You may call yourself a speculator, but not an investor...
by azanon
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11860

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

I would certainly hope one would make more from residential income from renting and being a landlord, which is an occupation, vs. merely passive investments in stocks or bonds. I didn't click on the actual study, but I hope that not too much time and effort was spent on the apples vs. oranges compar...
by azanon
Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"
Replies: 50
Views: 6213

Re: What is an appropriate lower risk asset allocation once one has "won the game"

The least risky portfolio (in my opinion) is roughly 30% equities but if you want a range, I'd say something between 25-40%. Lower than that, and the overall pendulum swings too high on inflation risk. Higher than that, and of course you have volatility/loss of principle risk increasing faster than ...
by azanon
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 24318

Re: How much money do you need to retire?

Want? Probably 1.5 mil. Need? Probably about half of that + pension and 2 SS checks.

Age: current 45/retiring at 57.
by azanon
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Wonder if Wellington and Wellesley will soon close to new investors altogether when the other two launch? I doubt it. These are different products. Vanguard isn't a house that keeps a small number of funds. No reason not to offer all four. That'd be sacrilege, and cause riots. Approximately 0% chan...
by azanon
Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration
Replies: 45
Views: 8194

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

After all the posts on percentage of foreign equity, I'll be very interested to see what percentage they use with these funds. Anybody wanna take a guess? It's going to be somewhere between 40-50% foreign equities, and probably 2:1 ratio of US to foreign bonds. On equities, 40% if they match Vangua...
by azanon
Wed Aug 02, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 66
Views: 12844

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

It might have already been touched on to some degree, but I would say the Bogle portfolio would be roughly some mix of Total US stock market and VG Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund (as opposed to Total Bond Index), depending on your age/how far along in your career. Bogle said numerous times he pre...