Search found 1538 matches

by azanon
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Only Wellington and Wellesley in retirement portfolio. Is that a good idea?
Replies: 15
Views: 1808

Re: Only Wellington and Wellesley in retirement portfolio. Is that a good idea?

There is no proper mix per se; a case could be made for either to be used as a sole retirement portfolio. In my opinion, the difference between the two is not so drastic that i'd go through the trouble of holding a blend of the two. I'd recommend you decide which of the trade-offs you prefer between...
by azanon
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 76
Views: 16066

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

dabears, I personally find it too complicated and confusing to try to make one portfolio by combining my 401(k) holdings (it's Thrift Savings Plan in my case) with my external IRA/taxable holdings. So from personal experience, I'd recommend just making a selection for the 401(k), then separately im...
by azanon
Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3331

Re: Past Performance ?

Bogleheads: When I am unsure, I listen to experts: Jack Bogle: "The biggest mistake investors make is looking backward at performance and thinking it’ll recur in the future." Bill Schultheis, adviser and author of The Coffeehouse Investor : "Using past performance numbers as a method for choosing m...
by azanon
Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 76
Views: 16066

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

dabears, I personally find it too complicated and confusing to try to make one portfolio by combining my 401(k) holdings (it's Thrift Savings Plan in my case) with my external IRA/taxable holdings. So from personal experience, I'd recommend just making a selection for the 401(k), then separately imp...
by azanon
Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?
Replies: 115
Views: 19343

Re: What are your thoughts on the "Golden Butterfly" portfolio?

The GB and PP seem to be solid portfolios, but I'd add that in my opinion Gold is not necessary to build a low std deviation portfolio. Take a look at the portfolios below. Which do you like best and why? (I don't know how to paste pics in here so I'm hoping this translates ok when I post it, 1995 ...
by azanon
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin
Replies: 7
Views: 1566

Re: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin

He rarely commits to much of anything, and generally takes both sides of any prediction, at least to some extent. He runs that same script so often, I wish "they'd" quit asking him what he thinks will happen about anything in the finance world.
by azanon
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 53
Views: 4142

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Given that At 12:48 p.m., for instance, bitcoin was trading at $19,141 a coin on Bithumb, an exchange in South Korea. At the same time, it was trading at $14,573 on Bitfinex, based in Taiwan. I would say that there is no way to know what "the" price of bitcoin is , let alone what it will be. I also...
by azanon
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?
Replies: 53
Views: 2939

Re: Do you have any guilty pleasure investments?

I invest $4/week in "Lucky for Life" tickets hoping to win $1,000 a day for life. So far, I haven't won it yet, but I'm committed to the investment though, as the hope brings me pleasure.
by azanon
Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Move to International Stock Fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 345

Re: Move to International Stock Fund?

If one believes that US equities are over-priced and rising interest rates are going to adversely effect bonds -- would investing a higher proportion of assets now an in international stock funds such as Vanguard Intl Stock Index Fund (VTIAX) be a "safer" harbor than US stocks and bonds Appreciate ...
by azanon
Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Just downsized at age 60...input appreciated
Replies: 29
Views: 3600

Re: Just downsized at age 60...input appreciated

If you want to meet your brother "in the middle", show him Vanguard Managed Payout fund and ask him if that's fancy enough for him (with the commodities, absolute return, etc). It's also close to your intended allocation. Then you can pay no adviser fee, probably a whole lot less for the investments...
by azanon
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 17
Views: 1097

Re: Crypto-Currency

5) Although there is a lot of support for the idea that it is OK to use some of your money as "fun money" to scratch your gambling itch so that you can keep it out of your core investing, I personally have two problems with the idea. A commonly mentioned allotment is 5%. The first problem is whethe...
by azanon
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979
Replies: 4
Views: 819

Re: Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979

Helpful if you have a time machine that can only go back to 1979, but you'd probably pick a different AA if that was the case. The article also states: “The marginal 60/40 outperformance is driven by the fact that the S&P 500 SPX and 10-year bonds were the top two performing assets over this time p...
by azanon
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Considering Building Gaming PC - Good Builds/Price Points?
Replies: 34
Views: 2264

Re: Considering Building Gaming PC - Good Builds/Price Points?

The last PC I built, I just paused/played a Cary Holtzman Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=cary+holtzman) and bought (mostly) the exact same parts that was in the video. That method worked perfectly, and now I have a very nice system, complete with clean and efficient cable mana...
by azanon
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 61
Views: 8581

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

1) Helps me sleep at night easily. 2) If the stock allocation was higher ( 70/30 or 80/20 ) I don't feel confident on when in my life I would change it to a lower stock allocation. 3) I do feel confident holding 60/40 through a major downturn. 4) I do feel comfortable doing a change to 40/60 on yea...
by azanon
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1996

Re: Larry Swedroe: Avoid High Ranked Funds

Morningstar found exactly the opposite as discussed here: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=831740
by azanon
Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value
Replies: 19
Views: 2112

Re: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value

My feeling is that the "forest" is that there is just darned little difference between large-cap blend and large-cap value. Thanks for your post; that's very interesting. I admit, I did check on one thing though; I noticed you chose the 2007-2009 drop which reportedly hammered just about every asse...
by azanon
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value
Replies: 19
Views: 2112

Re: Larry Swedroe: Finding The Source Of Value

I always have a hard time accepting the notion that I'm getting paid for extra risk, as a holder of large-cap value stock vs., say an S&P 500 index. Am I wrong to think that I'm arguably better positioned to weather a potential bear market than a S&P 500 holder? If I'm not wrong, then remind me agai...
by azanon
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?
Replies: 37
Views: 3140

Re: What can we learn from BitCoin’s surge?

White Coat Investor wrote:
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:23 am
I worried it was a bubble when I saw Allan Roth buy some.

I'll know it's a bubble when Taylor Larimore buys some. That's your indication to sell.
Beautiful! :mrgreen:
by azanon
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9664

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

The biggest risk with that extreme 25/75 portfolio being substituted for a traditional 60/40, where the 25 is extreme factor tilt to small/value, is that your returns might end up really sucking, if the future doesn't equal the past. The alternative is to accept the larger fat tails, ~ 30% higher vo...
by azanon
Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 14032

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

This is just a small sample from 5 minutes worth of googling; by no means even scratching the surface >8 Health benefits of drinking wine: http://www.foodandwine.com/articles/8-health-benefits-of-drinking-wine >Sharecare (formally realage.com) gives you extra life (i believe close to a year) if you...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 14032

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

I've read that 1-2 glasses of red wine a day for men, and up to 1 glass a day for women is healthier than 0 glasses. So not only, not harmful, but beneficial. And one of the two benefits is the alcohol units itself. Cursory google searches would provide credible sources for this (if you insist, I c...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your favorite Costco wines?
Replies: 40
Views: 3946

Re: Your favorite Costco wines?

What are your favorite wines from Costco? We're usually in the $15-25/bottle range. We prefer reds but are equal opportinity drinkers. Thanks!! I hope you don't mind my comment since it's not what you're asking, but I have to share my value approach to wine. I can't say enough good things about eit...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 14032

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

It's good advice for someone who's been bankrupt due to excessive debt to avoid using debt, just like it's good advice for a recovering alcoholic to avoid drinking alcohol all-together. However, there are also some of us that are responsible with debt and are not alcoholics, so the same advice does...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off
Replies: 221
Views: 14032

Re: Dave Ramsey says don't use credit cards, even if you pay them off

It's good advice for someone who's been bankrupt due to excessive debt to avoid using debt, just like it's good advice for a recovering alcoholic to avoid drinking alcohol all-together. However, there are also some of us that are responsible with debt and are not alcoholics, so the same advice doesn...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dropping Term Life Insurance When Hitting Your Number
Replies: 30
Views: 3438

Re: Dropping Term Life Insurance When Hitting Your Number

I dropped my term policy (100K) pretty early on when I was young, when I accumulated what the policy was, and it was nowhere near my eventual retirement figure. Now granted, my view of what life insurance should cover is not even close to what you hear preached. I never quite understood the rational...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5665

Re: Holding VTSAX only

My wife and I often comment that we are like the old man with many worries, most of which have never happened. We are now approaching seventy and I have maintained about a 25% allocation of bonds and cash vs. 75% equities since we began saving in our mid-twenties. At this point most of our savings ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5665

Re: Holding VTSAX only

This was my facebook post yesterday: Notable US stock valuation points (higher is more expensive): (CAPE/PE10) September 1929 (peak): 32.56 August 1987 (before black Friday): 18.33 December 1999 (highest ever recorded): 44.20 December 2006 (peak before housing crash): 27.28 Today's valuation (Nov 2...
by azanon
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors
Replies: 121
Views: 9664

Re: Larry Swedroe: Managing Risk With Factors

My thought is, if you're going to incorporate factors, at least hedge your bets a little bit. For instance, I like the thought of using large-cap value, because Warren B., Vanguard's wellington/wellesley, has had a lot of success with that. But something like Large-cap value is not going too far out...
by azanon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5665

Re: Holding VTSAX only

This was my facebook post yesterday: Notable US stock valuation points (higher is more expensive): (CAPE/PE10) September 1929 (peak): 32.56 August 1987 (before black Friday): 18.33 December 1999 (highest ever recorded): 44.20 December 2006 (peak before housing crash): 27.28 Today's valuation (Nov 2...
by azanon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5665

Re: Holding VTSAX only

This was my facebook post yesterday: Notable US stock valuation points (higher is more expensive): (CAPE/PE10) September 1929 (peak): 32.56 August 1987 (before black Friday): 18.33 December 1999 (highest ever recorded): 44.20 December 2006 (peak before housing crash): 27.28 Today's valuation (Nov 2...
by azanon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding VTSAX only
Replies: 46
Views: 5665

Re: Holding VTSAX only

This was my facebook post yesterday: Notable US stock valuation points (higher is more expensive): (CAPE/PE10) September 1929 (peak): 32.56 August 1987 (before black Friday): 18.33 December 1999 (highest ever recorded): 44.20 December 2006 (peak before housing crash): 27.28 Today's valuation (Nov 20...
by azanon
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4628

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I don't look at it as raining on someone's explorations. I assume if someone's going to make that level of effort to find an optimized portfolio for that type of retirement withdrawal method, then I would be doing them a favor by pointing out that the withdrawal method itself is very poor and really...
by azanon
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4628

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

I found this to be an interesting exercise. I am interested in comments from the forum, especially if you disagree with any of my observations. Let me know if you think I am missing something. I would say what you're missing is that you're searching for the most optimum portfolio to use, for one of...
by azanon
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market
Replies: 96
Views: 13800

Re: Jim Cramer doesn’t beat the market

When the tide turns from passive investing, I would not be surprised to see Ramen beat the market by a large amount. Right now it is hard for anyone actively picking stocks. Ramen, a Chinese-style wheat noodle, has just as good a chance of beating the market as tea leaves, fortune cookies, tarot ca...
by azanon
Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2734

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

avalpert's exactly right. If we're just going by the subject of this thread, I think it really should be closed. I'm pretty sure it'd be some type of SEC violation for a fund to claim to be able to beat the market. I'm not aware of a single one that makes that claim, or anything close to it. I know...
by azanon
Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2734

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

avalpert's exactly right. If we're just going by the subject of this thread, I think it really should be closed. I'm pretty sure it'd be some type of SEC violation for a fund to claim to be able to beat the market. I'm not aware of a single one that makes that claim, or anything close to it. I know ...
by azanon
Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?
Replies: 29
Views: 2734

Re: Are actively managed funds that claim to beat the market actually "scams"?

There are plenty of investors, and fund managers that legitimately don't subscribe to the Efficient Market Hypothesis. So to say that everyone knows beforehand that, after active management costs, that it will be a foregone conclusion that they will eventually under-perform, is simply not true, beca...
by azanon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5239

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

I think it is ultimately a matter of whether small caps have a higher risk-adjusted return or simply a higher return. I feel markets are relatively efficient, so I don't think a drastically higher risk-adjusted expected return is all that likely over many-decade time spans. More return for more ris...
by azanon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5239

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

There's a virtually guaranteed way to get higher expected risk-adjusted return with small caps (vs. large caps), but it requires offsetting it with riskless, or near riskless bonds. I would reference Larry Swedroe's "Black Swans" book for specifics, but in short it works like this; a 30/70, where th...
by azanon
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9533

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

I didn't try to figure out exactly what rate of return it's using, but it must be ridiculously low. I found it to be useless.
by azanon
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The average American retiree household
Replies: 57
Views: 10935

Re: The average American retiree household

Having said that, $100,000 savings isn’t a lot and I wonder if the same advice we would give to more affluent retirees re: investing would apply to the average retiree or those in the bottom half at large. Thoughts? My thought on that particular point would be that there isn't much reason to spend ...
by azanon
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The average American retiree household
Replies: 57
Views: 10935

Re: The average American retiree household

........... About one-third of today’s retirees have a pension. Almost a quarter of them work; the median wages is $25,000. A smaller percentage receive additional government assistance, VA, etc. Thoughts? As a member of the Internet Retirement Police, my thoughts are, based on those statistics, ab...
by azanon
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8981

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

Wasn't one of the few truths or take-aways from Modern Portfolio Theory is that the only portfolios that we know are mathematically illogical are those with less than ~ 20-25% equities, because below that level, two things happen; your expected return drops, and your expected risk (relative to infla...
by azanon
Tue Nov 07, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 113
Views: 27414

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Europe has lower valuations than in Asia, on average. In a way, I like seeing that they're tilting somewhat, or not perfectly matching, say, VT. If I wanted a pure index fund, I'd buy one and pay less. I'd probably be suspicious that they're not doing anything special if all they did was match worl...
by azanon
Tue Nov 07, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 113
Views: 27414

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Wellesley Income has just 6% of its assets invested overseas, the Global Wellesley will have 45% in the US, 43% invested in Europe and the remaining 12% dedicated to Asia and emerging markets. It will maintain its ⅔ bonds, ⅓ stocks allocation. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4118933-vanguard-globa...
by azanon
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 113
Views: 27414

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

According to Morningstar (as of 1 Nov 2017), looks like Global Wellesley launched with 223.0 mil AUM, and Global Wellington started with 340.9 mil AUM. That's pretty impressive IMO.
by azanon
Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?
Replies: 35
Views: 2928

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?

But will it earn more due to diversification? Is it more "bulletproof" because of diversification? Is it worth moving? At this point we really have no way of knowing. While the Prospectus gives a general idea of what the fund will be investing in going forward (as of today it officially is still in...
by azanon
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?
Replies: 35
Views: 2928

Re: Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund VWIAX VS "Global" Wellesley Income Fund VGYAX? Should I move? Would you?

I asked this in the other thread that we have on this, but I can't wait to see how much money the subscription managed to generate. I'm totally guessing but it wouldn't surprise me if they managed to pull off 1 billion or better at launch. The launch is tomorrow.
by azanon
Wed Nov 01, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills
Replies: 14
Views: 1879

Re: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills

Would the opposite be true as well? For instance, I've always heard that small-cap growth has under-performed long-term. So since that information is now out there, is that possibly a reason TO invest in small-cap growth? :beer