Search found 4766 matches

by avalpert
Sun May 21, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

After reading all of the above reasonings it just seems a bit foolish to go against Buffett and Bogle`s reasonings. Yes they may come from an earlier era then most of us do but I feel and believe that they are certainly still very aware and rational thinkers investing wise. Of course time will tell...
by avalpert
Sun May 21, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

After reading all of the above reasonings it just seems a bit foolish to go against Buffett and Bogle`s reasonings. Yes they may come from an earlier era then most of us do but I feel and believe that they are certainly still very aware and rational thinkers investing wise. Of course time will tell...
by avalpert
Sun May 21, 2017 5:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No estate plan, are DIYs wills good enough for now? CA residents need ASAP
Replies: 17
Views: 1089

Re: No estate plan, are DIYs wills good enough for now? CA residents need ASAP

... Procrastinating married couple in CA who have no estate plans in place yet, not even wills. One spouse is having surgery in about 2 weeks and it gets one thinking... Couple has mid 7 figure assets and a greatly appreciated mortgage free home all jointly owned and titled. All assets go to the su...
by avalpert
Sun May 21, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: No estate plan, are DIYs wills good enough for now? CA residents need ASAP
Replies: 17
Views: 1089

Re: No estate plan, are DIYs wills good enough for now? CA residents need ASAP

... Procrastinating married couple in CA who have no estate plans in place yet, not even wills. One spouse is having surgery in about 2 weeks and it gets one thinking... Couple has mid 7 figure assets and a greatly appreciated mortgage free home all jointly owned and titled. All assets go to the su...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Absolutely true - and that is why it is all the more important not to less us be too wedded to what happened to occur in the recent past and operate under the false assumption that it will be similar in the near-term future. In other words, you are providing a great reason to diversify internationa...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Absolutely true - and that is why it is all the more important not to less us be too wedded to what happened to occur in the recent past and operate under the false assumption that it will be similar in the near-term future. In other words, you are providing a great reason to diversify internationa...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

I do realize that it actually, part of the myopia they are applying unfortunately. I do wish sometimes I was a more patient teacher and thus able to better help them overcome that - an area for self improvement, definitely. And no, there are not a great many academics who study this topic who think...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Every country has specific well-known issues, including the United States. One would think these things were priced into their respective equities. But U.S. patriots apparently are arguing the relative greatness of the U.S. has not been fully acknowledged in market prices, and so much so we should ...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 184
Views: 6713

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

Every country has specific well-known issues, including the United States. One would think these things were priced into their respective equities. But U.S. patriots apparently are arguing the relative greatness of the U.S. has not been fully acknowledged in market prices, and so much so we should ...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job - employee vs. contractor
Replies: 6
Views: 634

Re: New job - employee vs. contractor

How would the working relationship differ between the two compensation relationships? If it won't, what makes you sure the company can legally treat you as a contractor and not an employee?
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3307

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

That SS is actuarially neutral has been debunked numerous times at Bogleheads. There are many reasons it is not actuarially neutral. Here are some of them. - It is unisex. If it were actuarially neutral for single people it would need to differentiate between men and women since on average women li...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3307

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

Now.....this is sound advice about when to take SS......:D #1). If you need the money.....take it! #2). If you don't need the money but want it...........take it! #3). If you don't need it or want it early.......delay it! #1 and #3 are sound advice - #2 isn't any more than 'if you don't need the mi...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary
Replies: 55
Views: 3307

Re: Interesting conversation with an alleged SS actuary

I recently had an interesting conversation with someone who purported to be a retired SS Administration actuary. Drum roll: What he stated was while the individual may be able to divine their longevity and benefit from delaying taking social security payments, it is, from an actuarial standpoint be...
by avalpert
Sat May 20, 2017 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 760

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

Then you aren't taking advantage of the full value of TLH - which is fine if you aren't comfortable with the potential trade-of. If you are waiting to have losses big enough to guarantee they won't be gone in 30 days you will leave a lot of losses on the table and really rarely do it at all OK. Wha...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5397

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

I actually want to convince you that you absolutely should not in market right now. I am in, but I don't think you should in. I have a good reason for that, take a look at this video. search for latest interview with Kessler with wealth track in youtube. That is very convincing. Not convince enough...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)
Replies: 76
Views: 7821

Re: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)

assuming no annual cola because noone knows what they will be If you take 3% inflation into account So my question is this, why on Earth do most financial sites and even a pretty healthy portion of the boggel heads here recommend delaying SS benifits even after you retire. Am I missing something? B...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5397

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

I actually want to convince you that you absolutely should not in market right now. I am in, but I don't think you should in. I have a good reason for that, take a look at this video. search for latest interview with Kessler with wealth track in youtube. That is very convincing. Not convince enough...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 760

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

Yes, when you TLH you need to be willing to be in the second fund for the long term. Can you explain this please. I take a tax loss of $10k. In the next 30 days my replacement asset goes up by $1k. I sell it at a gain and as a result can only save $9k of my original loss to carry forward. It seem t...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)
Replies: 75
Views: 7569

Re: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)

I'm losing track of what the real issue is as raised in this thread. About 420 of the companies in the S&P 500 pay dividends. So you are going to get paid dividends if you are a boglehead. That is just a fact of life. If you can buy an S&P fund and live off of the dividends that seems great...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

This is a picture perfect example of the biases that make humans really bad at incorporating tail-risk into their intuition. Not only do we dismiss a real event that actually happened but it 'isn't even rational' to consider... sorry, the irrational thing ((and really textbook example of it)) is to...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting
Replies: 9
Views: 760

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting

Looking at relative past performance is a red herring - so let's drop it. Yes, when you TLH you need to be willing to be in the second fund for the long term. If you are concerned that leaving a total market fund for an S&P 500 fund will throw off your allocation then instead TLH with both an S&...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

It may be the case that 100 year stock returns in Japan are positive - and it may remain true 100 years from now but the same cannot be said for Russian shareholders from 100 years ago (at least 100 years ago March). So, again, stocks do not always go up long term - there are no guarantees at all. ...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

It may be the case that 100 year stock returns in Japan are positive - and it may remain true 100 years from now but the same cannot be said for Russian shareholders from 100 years ago (at least 100 years ago March). So, again, stocks do not always go up long term - there are no guarantees at all. ...
by avalpert
Fri May 19, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

It may be the case that 100 year stock returns in Japan are positive - and it may remain true 100 years from now but the same cannot be said for Russian shareholders from 100 years ago (at least 100 years ago March). So, again, stocks do not always go up long term - there are no guarantees at all. ...
by avalpert
Thu May 18, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Quickest Path to Financial Independence
Replies: 10
Views: 1485

Re: Quickest Path to Financial Independence

I don't mean this to be glib, but the quickest path is to marry rich or find yourself a benefactor for your art that will support you. You are looking at getting ~$2m portfolio or more to support that much income consistently. Saving in stocks, without consistent income, may someday build up a nice ...
by avalpert
Thu May 18, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)
Replies: 75
Views: 7569

Re: The Case for Dividend Stocks in Retirement (article)

I totally get the mathematical point that the distinction between spending dividends and selling shares is an artificial one. But what does the behavioral psychology research say about it? To me it seems easier to stick to a "spend the dividends" plan than to stick to a "sell as much...
by avalpert
Thu May 18, 2017 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

No, stocks do not always go up long term (either as individual stocks or even as broad indexes - see Japan). Yes, the S&P 500 changes over time to reflect changes in the overall economy as some companies and sectors go up and some down. I have a different take on this: stocks DO always go up &q...
by avalpert
Thu May 18, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it better to stay at 19 or 24 paychecks per year?
Replies: 18
Views: 1575

Re: Is it better to stay at 19 or 24 paychecks per year?

You are better off getting the money in hand sooner rather than later - no need to give them a free loan.

Also no need to DCA at all - better to get the money working for you as soon as you can too.
by avalpert
Thu May 18, 2017 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International: Where's the benefit?
Replies: 63
Views: 4459

Re: International: Where's the benefit?

I guess I'm saying that the idea that "sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't" can't apply equally to all asset classes. Are folks here really saying that the historic returns in modern history are really equally distributed amongst US & international? If so, I want to keep looking ...
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2507

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

After all, market cap is a tilt, so anyone invested in VTI is tilting, just in one direction. What do you mean by this - what do you think VTI is a tilt from? Well, it's "market beta" for one - the first "factor" in the factor argument, but more specifically it's an intentionall...
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Convince me to get back into stocks!
Replies: 83
Views: 5397

Re: Convince me to get back into stocks!

Assumption #1: After the next recession (whenever that is), I think it’s fair to say stocks will take some time to return to their current value (based on historical data). For the sake of argument, let’s assume this happens Y years from today, but the # years does not matter at all in this calcula...
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)
Replies: 48
Views: 2507

Re: Tilting/Factors: My Conclusions (Challenges welcome)

frankmorris wrote:After all, market cap is a tilt, so anyone invested in VTI is tilting, just in one direction.

What do you mean by this - what do you think VTI is a tilt from?
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Net Expense Ratio in annual report vs Prospectus
Replies: 2
Views: 182

Re: Net Expense Ratio in annual report vs Prospectus

It's a data error in Morningstar - if you look at the annual report it says the ER for the institutional class was .13.
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Conceptual strategy to safely fund an early retirement?
Replies: 10
Views: 903

Re: Conceptual strategy to safely fund an early retirement?

This seems like it has a high chance of failure and is very far from a safe strategy. Look at the Trinity study - you are essentially targeting a 5% withdrawal rate for a 20 year period at 100% bonds (and short bonds at that), the failure rate I believe was close to 45%. Your only alternative is to ...
by avalpert
Wed May 17, 2017 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need a LLC to Do Consulting Work
Replies: 20
Views: 2014

Re: Do I need a LLC to Do Consulting Work

Wow.. .such great information.. thank you so much for what has been provided. Let me give some more information and perhaps we can get more specific. ⋅ I have made significant income from "corporate America" this year (Roughly $300K) and will be exiting shortly. ⋅  I p...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need a LLC to Do Consulting Work
Replies: 20
Views: 2014

Re: Do I need a LLC to Do Consulting Work

I am abou to exit "corporate" America and do some limited consulting / contractor work. Can anyone provide advice on: ⋅ Should I establish a LLC to do this? ⋅ Should I have business insurance to protect personal assets? ⋅ What can I do with this that is advan...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting vs simplicity -- and where to tilt?
Replies: 12
Views: 1055

Re: Tilting vs simplicity -- and where to tilt?

I don't think adding real estate (as opposed to REITs) is 'tilting' your portfolio. You have added a third asset class in addition to fixed income and equities. So the question of whether you want your equity exposure to diverge from the total market is a distinct one - if you want to get some facto...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2501

Re: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danbigman/2013/10/30/how-general-motors-was-really-saved-the-untold-true-story-of-the-most-important-bankruptcy-in-u-s-history/#26e745de7eea Great story, I was inside the FS liquidations at the time - it really was an exciting, exhilarating, nerve wracking and crazy eve...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?
Replies: 49
Views: 3862

Re: Best argument you've heard against passive/for active?

what are the most convincing arguments people have heard against passive investing or in favor of active investing? Vanguard Wellington +1, actively managed Wellington has beat it's passive counterpart balanced index, inclusive of expenses since the latter's inception while holding less than 10% of...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2501

Re: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?

Don't believe foreign earnings or subsidies are at risk thus you have international. Did US equity holders get any benefits from GM's foreign earnings and subsidies in 2009? https://www.forbes.com/sites/danbigman/2013/10/30/how-general-motors-was-really-saved-the-untold-true-story-of-the-most-impor...
by avalpert
Tue May 16, 2017 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?
Replies: 8
Views: 647

Re: Tilting: Will lowered contextual risk of factors eventually eliminate the risk premium?

While it's always possible, it's not yet happened that TSM has never yielded positive turns over a longer investment trajectory, whereas it seems that people are making the argument that SV could disappear or diminish proportionally to overall returns. We just had a 30 year period where stocks fail...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2501

Re: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?

The reason Buffet and Bogle recommend no international and the S&P 500 is those companies are primarily multinational. I think something like 40% of their revenue. Do you think Apple suffers from single country risk, besides quarterly sales numbers from China. Yes it does as those risk includes...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2501

Re: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?

I think the primary reason to hold a substantial portion in international is for what you might call the fat-tail (or black swan) risk inherent in holding a large portion of your stocks from just one country. Back-testing portfolios over a period where that sort of risk has never really shown up is...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?
Replies: 27
Views: 2501

Re: Letting equity-only portfolio drift for decades (no rebalancing)?

I think the primary reason to hold a substantial portion in international is for what you might call the fat-tail (or black swan) risk inherent in holding a large portion of your stocks from just one country. Back-testing portfolios over a period where that sort of risk has never really shown up is...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

I have studied the theory of 'Away in May' and it has proven to be sound over the years, thereby greatly increasing the returns and limiting the risk. What one does with the money for the off 6 months is immaterial but one can sleep easy doing it. Please tell me this isn't a serious post. If it is ...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4244

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

How is it possible that indexes like the S&P 500 show positive gains over the long term. There have been many companies that went out of business or their stocks went down dramatically. Do the indexes drop losers and add in winners to make it appear that over the long term you cannot lose money...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Safe, low volatility ETFs with monthly dividend payout
Replies: 14
Views: 691

Re: Safe, low volatility ETFs with monthly dividend payout

What are you trying to accomplish? Monthly income. Stability of principal. Do you need to touch the principal at any point in the near term? If not I would consider 3-5 year CDs - you could get a 5 year CD at Ally, for example, for 2.25% with 0 principal risk, just make sure to elect to have the in...
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to calculate % international/em in portfolio
Replies: 3
Views: 322

Re: how to calculate % international/em in portfolio

Generally, when people talk about 20% international they are talking about as a percent of equities, not the the whole portfolio.

Which ratio makes sense to use will depend on the context you are using it for.
by avalpert
Mon May 15, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for friend with great commission but no company benefits
Replies: 20
Views: 1176

Re: Advice for friend with great commission but no company benefits

Hello all- I have a single 27 year old friend that is a Doctor. She is averaging $25,000-$35,000 per month in commissions, but has no salary, benefits, retirement, etc, and she has asked me to advise her on how to set up her own investments. She is very frugal and not a high consumption individual....

Go to advanced search