Search found 5294 matches

by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

He should, but that is offset by the opportunity cost of not renting out the property he owns and instead providing it to himself for free... Those aren't offsetting factors. Whether he rented out the property, or lived in the property himself (thus avoiding having to pay rent on other lodging), th...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 146
Views: 8488

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Sure, but why fret about the value of an investment you won't sell for 25 years? Does your investment approach include rebalancing? Do you put new money towards the lower performance asset class? Do you recognize that your need for risk may change based on overperformance/underperformance relative ...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

Lots of people saying buying does not make sense financially, or that you spend more on housing if you buy vs rent. I think this varies. I'll say that in the Denver suburbs I was able to buy a 5br home in a nice neighborhood for less than it would have cost us to rent a 2-3br apt in the same area, ...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

According to Ken Rockwell: After selling my condo of 17 years, sure, I sold it at the top of California's recent real estate bubble for four times what I paid. But wait: unlike a financial investment, I had to pay mortgage interest, taxes, utilities, repairs, homeowner associations and loads of oth...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

According to Ken Rockwell: After selling my condo of 17 years, sure, I sold it at the top of California's recent real estate bubble for four times what I paid. But wait: unlike a financial investment, I had to pay mortgage interest, taxes, utilities, repairs, homeowner associations and loads of oth...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here isa criticisim of active management I don't get
Replies: 4
Views: 377

Re: Here isa criticisim of active management I don't get

It's simple, if he is allowing himself to select from the global set of securities to pick the areas he think will do best then his benchmark should be that universe - otherwise how are you fairly judging whether his asset allocation choices were in fact reflecting skillful choices. Otherwise, why w...
by avalpert
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 146
Views: 8488

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

It's just paper worth. If you have cash on the side, any big drop is a buying opportunity. Yes, definitely would have been beneficial for people to have cash on the side for yesterday's 'buying opportunity' - because the gains they missed out on by not having it invested over the last month (and mo...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 146
Views: 8488

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Nothing changed. You didn't lose $7000. You have the same number of shares now that you did this morning. Get a grip. No, he did lose $7000 today - the shares are worth what the market says they are worth, beyond that you can't even say they are worth the paper they are printed on anymore. I unders...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 146
Views: 8488

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Nothing changed. You didn't lose $7000. You have the same number of shares now that you did this morning. Get a grip. No, he did lose $7000 today - the shares are worth what the market says they are worth, beyond that you can't even say they are worth the paper they are printed on anymore. I lost a...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!
Replies: 146
Views: 8488

Re: Lost $7000 today in ONE DAY!

Nothing changed. You didn't lose $7000. You have the same number of shares now that you did this morning. Get a grip. No, he did lose $7000 today - the shares are worth what the market says they are worth, beyond that you can't even say they are worth the paper they are printed on anymore. I lost a...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 1099 vs W2 without 401K vs W2
Replies: 4
Views: 272

Re: 1099 vs W2 without 401K vs W2

W2 with 401k > W2 without 401k >> 1099. That order is obviously the case if the gross compensation is the same (there is a small range where this may not be true depending on tax rate after you max out on social security before you hit the 401k max limit) - but in no case should it be. If a company...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

Again, their criteria are explicitly different from a typical individual investor. It isn't just that it is larger - they aren't looking at 'stock market' purchases - even if they were to acquire a stake in a publicly traded company they aren't looking to do it through public stock markets not beca...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Buffett has said that he thinks stocks are expensive for individual investors and for Berkshire....presumably for largely similar reasons. Do you have a quote of him saying that - because as of the spring he was saying the opposite: Measured against interest rates, stocks actually are on the cheap ...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

They have more specific criteria that defines what they will find attractive in an investment including the size of the investment they want to make, the value of the target it would represent and the relationship it has to other components of its portfolio. It really isn't analogous to an individu...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

Berkshire Hathaway has that in cash/cash equivalents - there is no comparison between an individual investor and a business conglomerate in terms of goals, strategy or tactics. Why not? The $100 billion is to be invested when BRK finds an attractive investment, whether that be a big chunk of public...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management
Replies: 16
Views: 766

Re: Active or Indexed for Optimal Risk Management

The Morgan Stanley advisor wasn't providing an argument - he was providing sales copy. He conflates the method of deploying capital into equities with the determination of how much to deploy, he either misconstrues or outright misrepresents what 'studies' have found and he is recommending a course o...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: Buffett and his $100 Billion in cash [are you increasing your cash holdings]

[moved this post into the existing thread - moderator prudent] Buffett and Munger are reportedly sitting on $100 billion in cash due to a lack of attractive investing opportunities (their prospective). From the best I can gather the total Market cap for Berkshire is around $500 billion. Boglehead c...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?
Replies: 22
Views: 1425

Re: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?

So usually you cannot know how much per hour they are paying and what type of benefits they are giving you? I don't want to apply to only reject the job offer. What if you are very wealthy and are very selective about the type of job and benefits that are provided? If you ask them before a first in...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy
Replies: 23
Views: 2560

Re: WSJ - ... Stop Index Trackers [from] Eating the Economy

It's a non-issue that has been discussed many times here. It takes very little knowledge in a market to make the price efficient (there has been real research done in prediction markets on this). Most of the value of market participants is providing liquidity to the market and index investors do tha...
by avalpert
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?
Replies: 22
Views: 1425

Re: Best place to find jobs and how to know the pay/benefits before applying?

So usually you cannot know how much per hour they are paying and what type of benefits they are giving you? I don't want to apply to only reject the job offer. What if you are very wealthy and are very selective about the type of job and benefits that are provided? If you ask them before a first in...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Garment Bag for flights
Replies: 5
Views: 442

Re: Best Garment Bag for flights

If all you need is to carry a suit this should be perfect: https://www.redoxx.com/Briefcases-and-Garment-Bags/Gypsy-Suit-Cover/91036/130/Product I use their Air Boss as my primary bag for business trips (it also carries two full sets of dive equipment). Personally, when I'm just taking a suit I use ...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postal Service -- "informed delivery"
Replies: 88
Views: 4727

Re: Postal Service -- "informed delivery"

I am amazed at the number of Bogleheads posting to this thread who would think of this as a beneficial service. Please read the documentation carefully. In my mind, the primary benefit is to the mailer not the mail recipient. There is a plethora of reasons why a mailer would want this. We (the mail...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

Thanks to alex_686 and avalpert. So it sounds like the real "problem" you might both agree is solved by indexing is the cognitive bias of illusory superiority (the fact that most people believe that they are above average). The mistaken belief you can pick stocks better than the average of everyone...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

It sounds to me like at least some people here don't believe there is any reasonable way to assess the value of an individual stock at a given moment in time. Is that part of the Bogleheads philosophy, that value cannot be measured or is irrelevant? This is how I took avalpert's replies, which made...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Postal Service -- "informed delivery"
Replies: 88
Views: 4727

Re: Postal Service -- "informed delivery"

I am amazed at the number of Bogleheads posting to this thread who would think of this as a beneficial service. Please read the documentation carefully. In my mind, the primary benefit is to the mailer not the mail recipient. There is a plethora of reasons why a mailer would want this. We (the mail...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

It sounds to me like at least some people here don't believe there is any reasonable way to assess the value of an individual stock at a given moment in time. Is that part of the Bogleheads philosophy, that value cannot be measured or is irrelevant? This is how I took avalpert's replies, which made...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going passive is an active decision
Replies: 31
Views: 2000

Re: Going passive is an active decision

"You can choose a ready guide
In some celestial voice
If you choose not to decide
You still have made a choice"
Equivocation fallacies make for good marketing and sales pitches - they make for lousy logical arguments.
by avalpert
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

Whether he recognized his assumption or not - it was inherent in his words. I have no doubt it is a genuine effort to better understand - part of that understanding will require recognition of the assumptions that underlie his current perception. I don't know...I understand the tact you took, but I...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

You are assuming that you have a better forecast of future value of stocks then the market participants who set the price, do you? You use terms 'overprices' and 'expensive' as if you can spot when something is either of those - what is your track record in doing so? Oh, and yield is wholly irrelev...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

People here on this forum have argued in the past that the S&P 500 is indeed effectively a large growth index for the reasons you mention. It should be pointed out that the S&P 500 does not have a negative value loading (it didn't even during the .com boom), so in the academic factor sense it is no...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1802

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

So, as a stock's market cap rises or falls, the fund will buy or sell shares in proportion to reflect that stock's current market cap as a percent of the total market cap of the S&P 500. Nope, the fund has no need to buy/sell based on price movements of shares - they already own those shares so whe...
by avalpert
Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drinking water price craziness
Replies: 80
Views: 7081

Re: Drinking water price craziness

Expensive bottled water is strictly a US thing. In Italy and France, a 1 L bottle costs less than 25 c at the grocery store, even the neighborhood minimarts. The fact that people will pay high prices is due to what economists call an inverse-demand curve. The higher the price, the more people want ...
by avalpert
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question about market timing the current market
Replies: 27
Views: 1334

Re: Question about market timing the current market

He is at 50/50, and he said he didn't know why I was at 85/15 when it is inevitable the market will crash. ... "mathematically, how could it not work in this case?" Can you tell us why he thinks that? The most common reasons given are 1. the length of bull run or 2. the high P/E ratios. Sadly neith...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 4812

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

You do realize that none of those refer to intrinsic value or dividend discount models, right? Your claim was that in the aggregate you couldn't apply valuation, this was a naive finance 101. I have never made such a claim. I have claimed that certain applications of the dividend-discount model as ...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Well for starters Buffent and Munger have said that Berkshire is looking for a big acquisition target to deploy its cash in - which tells us they aren't interested in considering broad market investments that we are looking for insight into or multiple smaller investments that our stock picker frie...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Warren is always on the prowl for "wonderful companies at fair prices". Berkshire's proposed acquisition of Oncor, the Texas electric transmission and distribution business, is an all cash offer of $9 billion and change. Granted, that will still leave him with plenty of cash even after the acquisit...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Berkshire doesn't buy the market (or large subsection however you want to cut it) so I don't think you can read anything from their corporate actions into their perspective on the overall market value or direction. Why can't you read anything into it? Berkshire buys shares of public companies, buys...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 4812

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

Not difficult or expensive at all - take a simplified, Finance 101 version of valuation models assume it actually represents reality and pretend that the numbers we plug in for future estimates are nowhere near as uncertain as they actually are. Boom, intrinsic value. Pity the evidence for value pr...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 4812

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

The question is about what is a company worth. Unfortunately, it appears that that information is very difficult and expensive to determine, with no guarantee that it will outperform a simple cap weighted index. And it is equally difficult to identify someone in advance who will be able to consiste...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 4812

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

The question is about what is a company worth. Unfortunately, it appears that that information is very difficult and expensive to determine, with no guarantee that it will outperform a simple cap weighted index. And it is equally difficult to identify someone in advance who will be able to consiste...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Mr. Buffett has offered his sage advice with a crystal clear plan for what most investors should do, and trying to time the market isn't part of it. Average your contributions over time, invest in a low-cost broad average like the S&P 500/Total Stock Market, and you'll do much better than those try...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Recently Married - should we file jointly or separately?
Replies: 18
Views: 1235

Re: Recently Married - should we file jointly or separately?

The best thing to do is, come tax time, compute it both ways and see which is cheaper.
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bank of America/Merrill Edge - Preferred Rewards
Replies: 378
Views: 66370

Re: Bank of America/Merrill Edge - Preferred Rewards

Now confirmed. BofA is coming out with a Premium Rewards CC in September: http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/08/09/bofas-new-premium-rewards-card-comes-with-twist.html For those of us with Platinum Honors status, that's 3.5% back on travel and dining, and 2.625% on everything else. Some may n...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Warren is always on the prowl for "wonderful companies at fair prices". Berkshire's proposed acquisition of Oncor, the Texas electric transmission and distribution business, is an all cash offer of $9 billion and change. Granted, that will still leave him with plenty of cash even after the acquisit...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

I look at it this way. If you rent, you pay rent each month for the rest of your life. If you buy, you pay a higher rent for the first 15-30 years, then you live rent free in a paid-for house and that paid-for house could be a significant part of your asset. Do you not consider property taxes, majo...
by avalpert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?
Replies: 21
Views: 1209

Re: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?

I think you are being too cute by half (or more than half but that isn't as catchy). If rebalancing between sectors will lead to higher gains you should have that as a strategy regardless of any needs for withdrawals - why aren't you using that as you base approach to asset allocation? Except that ...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now
Replies: 65
Views: 8243

Re: news yesterday that Buffett has $100,000,000,000 in cash now

Warren is always on the prowl for "wonderful companies at fair prices". Berkshire's proposed acquisition of Oncor, the Texas electric transmission and distribution business, is an all cash offer of $9 billion and change. Granted, that will still leave him with plenty of cash even after the acquisit...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When does renting make sense
Replies: 112
Views: 8437

Re: When does renting make sense

I look at it this way. If you rent, you pay rent each month for the rest of your life. If you buy, you pay a higher rent for the first 15-30 years, then you live rent free in a paid-for house and that paid-for house could be a significant part of your asset. Do you not consider property taxes, majo...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 3557

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

New article in the Atlantic argues that researchers are now claiming that Index Funds are bad for the economy: JFP_SF: The article is a reminder that writers need something to write about. Best wishes. Taylor He's writing about research by economists and he's not exactly sensationalizing it. No, bu...
by avalpert
Tue Aug 08, 2017 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 3557

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

The underlying academic theory is far more interesting than the typical index-fund bashing in financial press and really isn't about index funds at all - whether the shared ownership was via passive or active stock picking is wholly irrelevant to the arguments. It tees up an interesting philosophica...