Search found 1074 matches

by asset_chaos
Sat May 21, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 22
Views: 2205

Re: a new look at the size premium

As the factor premium increases and the factor load decreases as the definition of the factor becomes more concentrated, it could be that they still multiply to give the same predicted factor return, regardless of the definition. This is indeed what happens for the "middle" (30/30 and 20/2...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 19, 2016 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 1860

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

Between them Vanguard and M* report that Vanguard's total world stock index fund has about 5% in real estate and another 11% in oil and gas and basic materials, where gold and other miners and producers of commodities would be. "Merely" having broad global stock investments gets one a reas...
by asset_chaos
Fri May 13, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks benefiting most from low oil prices
Replies: 16
Views: 1145

Re: stocks benefiting most from low oil prices

Based on what I have read so far, low oil prices are here to stay. A few years ago, everyone (that everyone fellow again) was saying that high oil prices were here to stay; moreover, they had nowhere to go but up. I don't recall the exact reasons given, but I'm sure they were plausible. I think the...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 07, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing With a Trust
Replies: 10
Views: 991

Re: Investing With a Trust

Disclaimer: not a tax or trust law expert, but I do manage a similar trust. Are you and your father (as trustee) planning on taking money out of the trust or on letting it accumulate? If you want to (or have to) let it accumulate inside the trust be aware that trust tax brackets are very compressed ...
by asset_chaos
Mon May 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World ETF Taxable
Replies: 9
Views: 975

Re: Total World ETF Taxable

Biggest downfall I see is missing out on a TLH opportunity. It's simply a truism that the simpler the portfolio, the less opportunity for tax loss harvesting or for rebalancing. Of course, simplicity has its own compensating virtues, such as psychologically easier to stay the course, more time to d...
by asset_chaos
Sun May 01, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon
Replies: 16
Views: 1184

Re: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon

As noted, the problem with 100% stocks when you're forced to sell every year to distribute cash is that in down market years you have to sell more shares to meet the dollar figure for required distributions, leaving fewer shares in the account to participate in the eventual recovery. There's even a ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentrated Factor Indexing
Replies: 9
Views: 838

Re: Concentrated Factor Indexing

Sounds like a way to repackage and remarket active management. Quantitative active management is still active management. And loading up on concentration risk is a good way to have at least some expectation of beating the market, but it's still pretty risky.
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you find more valuable? [Simulation vs. Wisdom]
Replies: 7
Views: 892

Re: Which would you find more valuable? [Simulation vs. Wisdom]

The simulations provide, at best, data. Synthesis of lots of data about a particular area could be called knowledge. And integration of that knowledge with other areas of knowledge and experience could lead to wisdom. I would suggest the simulations could be a starting point but shouldn't be an endi...
by asset_chaos
Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity's "Enhanced" Index Funds, almost ten years later
Replies: 23
Views: 2631

Re: Fidelity's "Enhanced" Index Funds, almost ten years later

Looks like the Fidelity funds results were dominated by them being index funds, which is a good thing, with whatever enhancement reducing the drag of costs, which is also a good thing. (The bad thing being their costs were a bit too high.) In a similar sense the Vanguard, at least large cap, funds a...
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing legends change their bond portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 4469

Re: Investing legends change their bond portfolio

Everyone faces the full suite of different investing risks, not all of which you have to take and not all of which you have to consider equally important to you. Malkiel and Ellis seem to be making the implicit argument that they believe that the future risk of inflation adjusted loss for treasury d...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 02, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord requiring copies of SSN
Replies: 73
Views: 4733

Re: Landlord requiring copies of SSN

Now I'm curious. Do some bank's statements routinely come with SSN printed on them? Mine doesn't. Or at least I don't think it does. I don't get paper statements, haven't for years; everything's online. And a social security card. I know my number and wouldn't have any problem giving it for a lease ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]
Replies: 23
Views: 1877

Re: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]

I like my business/stock investments diversified, highly diversified, as diversified as I can get. Therefore, I'm going to stick to total world as my core stock investment. Others may reasonably differ, betting that other, less diversified investment strategies may give better returns over particula...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why I'm Bailing from my Bond Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 3347

Re: Why I'm Bailing from my Bond Fund

The load is irrelevant. The fund was invested in, the load was paid, that money is gone, it's done. The only question is, is this particular fund something to keep going forward or not? I don't consider 50% in a bond fund in a trust to be particularly concentrated. I have half of a trust fund I admi...
by asset_chaos
Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle [may have said] TIPS give you "income risk"
Replies: 58
Views: 4884

Re: Jack Bogle says TIPS give you "income risk"

Bogle's usually right, but I do find that a somewhat odd way to look at TIPs. TIPs give you a government guaranteed real return that's usually above, but could be, zero. Corporates, yes indeed, have nominal interest rates above zero, but their real return could be less than zero. That income stream ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I or should I start my own fund ?
Replies: 45
Views: 3664

Re: How do I or should I start my own fund ?

You might try to contact John Montgomery who founded Bridgeway Funds. He has been successful at switching careers to start his own fund company. While I don't closely follow the fund industry, after decades of investing he's the only person I've heard of that did something similar to what you want t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Mar 13, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Core Bond Fund opens to investors]
Replies: 107
Views: 13654

Re: [Vanguard Core Bond Fund opens to investors]

I find the existence of this fund puzzling. Two possible reasons for it come to mind. (1) Independent advisers that use vanguard have demanded it. Or, (2) it's a way for vanguard to legitimately redeploy the corporate substitution strategy. I recall that vanguard substituted short term corporate bon...
by asset_chaos
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct
Replies: 2
Views: 551

The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct

Interesting article at the Economist on financial adviser misconduct and the extent to which its done by repeat offenders http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21693975-americas-revolving-door-financial-advisers-who-do-down-their-clients-rotten . A couple of excerpts: In America, more ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me
Replies: 8
Views: 1252

Re: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me

Several folks have said securities lending introduces additional risk. At some level that makes intuitive sense---if there's a return, there ought to be some accompanying risk---but I thought it was very low to no risk because the borrower of the shares had to put up somewhat more than the shares' v...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 01, 2016 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me
Replies: 8
Views: 1252

small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me

I invest in Vanguard's small cap value index fund. The annual report recently came out. Two items struck me as interesting. 1) On the list of assets on page 62 under "Other Assets and Liabilities" is $1.5 million labeled as "Investment in Vanguard". My recollection is in previous...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank Billpay
Replies: 10
Views: 1220

Re: Ally Bank Billpay

I've had a bad experience with the new billpay at Ally. I'd had a credit card autopaid in full for over 2 years. January's bill wasn't paid, and I was charged interest and late fees by the card company. Ally customer service on getting reimbursed and getting the billpay fixed is currently going on 3...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Says Sending 71 Account E-Mails to Wrong Investor Was ‘Isolated Matter’
Replies: 1
Views: 986

Re: Vanguard Says Sending 71 Account E-Mails to Wrong Investor Was ‘Isolated Matter’

Many, many years ago my paper mailed Vanguard statement in its security envelope came secured with a rubber band to a bundle of other people's statements in their security envelopes. It was a couple of dozen other people's, not 71. I guess that's what decades of productivity enhancing technology wil...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 2242

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

The global market portfolio already has a goodly sized weighting in natural resources. Vanguard total world doesn't specifically list a natural resources sector but says ( https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/investments/portfoliodetails?fundId=0826 ) its industry sector b...
by asset_chaos
Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Using the New Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond Index fund (VTEAX)?
Replies: 7
Views: 1335

Re: Anyone Using the New Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond Index fund (VTEAX)?

I had a superficial look when this fund came out. I found no compelling reason to switch from vanguard's older intermediate muni fund. On the other hand, if I was new to municipal bonds being right for my situation, then I suspect this new muni index fund would be a competitive choice for investment...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond
Replies: 28
Views: 3447

Re: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond

Reasonable expectations of returns for stocks and bonds need to be conditioned on valuations at the start of your period of interest. The period that starts with interest rates at 15% and stock market p/e ratio at 9 has a reasonable expectation, though not a guarantee , of higher 20 year returns for...
by asset_chaos
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we really trust the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 3086

Re: Should we really trust the market?

Until Vanguard complains that high frequency trading has raised the costs to run index funds, I'm going to wait to worry about hft. And I recall reading a Gus Sauter interview from around the time he retired as Vanguard's chief investment officer, in which he said hft made it marginally easier to ru...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?
Replies: 6
Views: 505

Re: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?

I am growing increasingly uncomfortable with Vanguard's continuing increase in their international position in their target date funds and I need data to justify sticking with the target date AA vs. forming my own US only investment plan. If you want Vanguard's own arguments and data, look through ...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1306

Re: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio

You could invest through a target retirement fund. That's essentially, though not exactly, a 3-fund portfolio, but one that does the rebalancing for you---and it's even simpler than a 3-fund portfolio. It that's not right for you, if you want to see the moving parts and experience how they react in ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $25,000 Short Term
Replies: 7
Views: 705

Re: Investing $25,000 Short Term

18 month CD. Not knowing what a pre-paid debit account is, I wouldn't use one. But it sounds like an account you can spend from. Money that I've earmarked for a particular future pupose, I prefer to keep in an account that I cannot easily spend from.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int
Replies: 9
Views: 909

Re: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int

If you've already decided to do this, and it's within a tax-deferred account, then I can't think of a good reason to drag out the process. Make the change all now and go on to other, more exciting aspects of life.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015
Replies: 117
Views: 10100

Re: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015

Turbotax for many years. This year trying H&R Block. I have to say my initial attempt at using Block's software has not been happy. I bought a disk, installed the program and tried to import last year's turbotax pdf. It doesn't work. The advertising material had said Block would import turbotax....
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3596

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

Invest in broadly diversified, low cost funds, which are most likely to be index funds, and hold forever is Bogle's advice that is universally true for all investors everywhere. And it's his glorious gift to the world that he created the investment vehicles and environment that permit any investor t...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I hate ETFs!!! [Lessons learned from market not going as expected]
Replies: 68
Views: 7422

Re: I hate ETFs!!!

I don't favor etfs, but I don't hate them either. I prefer traditional funds, probably because I was investing before etfs existed, and I'll happily admit the preference may not be entirely rational. On the other hand, I've never needed or wanted to do anything in investing quite so precise as the O...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 133
Views: 7639

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

In bad times the investor also runs up against the risk that returns on offer may not help them meet their financial goals. In which case the response can range from the delusional to the rational. The pension fund committee that assumes 8.5% returns, regardless of valuations or interest rate, is, i...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1291

Re: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

Thanks for the input. As expected, nothing useful that I can do.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1291

anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

I have an inherited IRA that I take rmd's from. A stock fund inside the IRA now has a long-term capital loss. The total IRA, being invested mostly in bonds, has an overall gain. Is there any potential benefit to harvesting this loss? I can't think of any, but, as my ignorance is extensive, is seems ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 3883

Re: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules

Interesting that Bogle has changed from 60/40 to 50/50. To all those that strictly adhere to Bogle's own investment style (US-only, fixed allocation, etc) just remember this move is what he decided is best for him , That only thing I find notable is that, on my understanding of Bogle's age, this is...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lima, Peru advice
Replies: 23
Views: 2182

Re: Lima, Peru advice

Yes, the Plaza de Armas with the palace and cathedral are good tourist places. Also near the central city are other churches with catacombs, and a museum about the inquisition. The national museum had a few years ago (not sure if still there) a good exhibition on the recent discoveries at the pyrami...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 9510

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

What do Bogleheads make of this dire warning? That it's a slow news days. This headline was on the front webpage of cnn and the bbc and my local newspaper, so it's probably featured on many news outlets around the world. RBC struck publicity gold by appealing to journalists' love of even disaster p...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.
Replies: 20
Views: 2740

Re: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.

Indeed, in my and my spouse's Australian superannuation funds the past year domestic stock and bond returns were respectively somewhat below and somewhat above zero, but the world ex Australia stocks were up over 10%. Suppressing returns here, boosting returns there, currency fluctuations can be eve...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Bear Market Truths"
Replies: 16
Views: 2593

Re: "Ten Bear Market Truths"

Are we in a bear market?
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1487

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

I need to be enlightened before I pull the trigger on VISVX. May I suggest that you take your finger off the trigger for a while. From the questions it appears that you may not be certain about what value funds are or what role you can reasonably expect them to play in your portfolio. I caution to ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 110
Views: 8730

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

This is what is meant by the old adage that investing is simple but not easy. If you look at different geographic sectors of the stock market and lament having too much of whatever did relatively poorly instead of more of whatever did relatively better, do you apply the same logic to industry sector...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplify a portfolio made with hubris
Replies: 26
Views: 4151

Re: Simplify a portfolio made with hubris

Have you considered that the issue may lie in your understanding of your own true risk tolerance? As a 7% drop in portfolio value is upsetting, instead of focusing on what particular segments of the stock markets you hold, perhaps it's just that you have too much in stocks to begin with. Is an 85:15...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random walks and momentum
Replies: 20
Views: 1686

Re: Random walks and momentum

There is more than one kind of random walk. Simple example, say you have a variable that can increase or decrease. You flip a coin; heads the variable continues the same direction of change it had before, either up or down; tails the variable reverses direction. If the coin is fair, you get a standa...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Constructing a Global Capital Market-Weighted Asset Allocation ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1229

Re: Constructing a Global Capital Market-Weighted Asset Allocation ?

total bond 25% total international bond 25% emerging market bond 10% total world stock index 40% would be reasonably close in round numbers to the current global capital markets. By the way, if you google "size of global capital markets" reasonable estimates for size of stock and bond mark...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Australia] 3 or 4 portfolio theory
Replies: 5
Views: 705

Re: [Australia] 3 or 4 portfolio theory

Your choices are perfectly reasonable. In the allocation percentages, remember to account for the investments you have in super. You want those percentages of asset allocations to reflect all of your assets, both inside and outside super. You can put all your bonds in super. Personally I like to kee...
by asset_chaos
Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We often hear from gurus that active wins in inefficient markets like EM
Replies: 18
Views: 1899

Re: We often hear from gurus that active wins in inefficient markets like EM

I recall Bill Bernstein taking on this trope as far back as his first book. From memory the argument was a simple one of costs. EM has much higher trading costs---indeed wouldn't high trading costs and low liquidity be a sign of a potentially inefficient market?---and managers generally charge more,...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: John Bogle's 5 Rules
Replies: 9
Views: 1913

Re: Allan Roth: John Bogle's 5 Rules

The 5 rules seem to have some built in redundant safeguards. It looks like there are really only 3 independent rules, and they are great ones, as Bogle has demonstrated for us over a lifetime: 1. Maximize diversification. 2. Minimize costs. 3. Hold forever.

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