Search found 1083 matches

by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 16, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NEED HELP: Creating an Asset Class Valuation Model
Replies: 6
Views: 464

Re: NEED HELP: Creating an Asset Class Valuation Model

One approximate way would be to assign a live fund or etf to represent the asset class. For example, the institutional shares of total stock fund to represent the broad US stock asset class. Then morningstar lists standard valuation metrics (current in whatever way morningstar keeps them current), s...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jul 12, 2016 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What index funds would be best for diversifying my current portfolio?
Replies: 13
Views: 1225

Re: What index funds would be best for diversifying my current portfolio?

You need to move towards a portfolio that will make you most comfortable with the inevitable swings of the markets and that is also consistent with your goals for investing. As I don't know anything about your risk tolerance or goals (other than that you're 27 and have amorphous goals), I'll tell yo...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Specify asset allocation in a Trust?
Replies: 53
Views: 2423

Re: Specify asset allocation in a Trust?

Good question about the level of control. Our son does not technically qualify for a special needs trust, but his lack of understanding about finances may cause him to make some mistakes if he sees some new opportunity on the news, for instance. I am just trying to protect him from that by giving h...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jul 02, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting Toward a Country that Isn't the US?
Replies: 18
Views: 1733

Re: Tilting Toward a Country that Isn't the US?

Surely there might be a case to be made for tilting toward politically stable countries with a long history of doing well economically? If you wanted to do that, there is the developed markets index fund. That seems to be more or less what one means by developed markets. Or if you want to predict w...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: profitability premium, why it exists
Replies: 1
Views: 256

Re: profitability premium, why it exists

The fact that we now know pricing errors—more than rational risk-based explanations—contribute to the profitability premium does not mean it’s doomed to disappear. Anomalies can persist because of limits to arbitrage, which prevent misspricings from being corrected. How would limits to arbitrage wo...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rise of low-cost managers like Vanguard should be celebrated
Replies: 0
Views: 222

rise of low-cost managers like Vanguard should be celebrated

Article in the Economist ( http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21700390-rise-low-cost-managers-vanguard-should-be-celebrated-slow-motion-revolution ) about Vanguard and the rise of tracker (what the Brits call index) funds. Some parts of it could have been ghost-written by Bogle. The real problem ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hold or sell inherited munis?
Replies: 17
Views: 1244

Re: Hold or sell inherited munis?

Your decision is somewhat more complex, but your sister's appears to be simple. If she wants to use this money in a few years, she should not hold the money in long term bonds. She should sell the bonds and put the money in a 12-24 month CD, so the money will definitely be there when she wants to us...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 31, 2016 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ
Replies: 47
Views: 6690

Re: Be thankful you are not a pension fund, WSJ

Neither pensions funds nor insurers nor any of us can force the markets to give a particular return. And I think that only within broad settings do we really have control of market risks: the realized risk over a time period can be greater than expected, regardless of the stock:bond ratio. The thing...
by asset_chaos
Tue May 24, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: car totaled, is insurance offer fair?
Replies: 4
Views: 687

car totaled, is insurance offer fair?

Our parked car was smashed into. Luckily no one hurt. It didn't look like tremendous damage to me, but the insurance company assessor said the car was unrepairable. Our insurance is for current value replacement. Are they likely to have offered us a fair value settlement, or is their first offer lik...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 21, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a new look at the size premium
Replies: 44
Views: 4059

Re: a new look at the size premium

As the factor premium increases and the factor load decreases as the definition of the factor becomes more concentrated, it could be that they still multiply to give the same predicted factor return, regardless of the definition. This is indeed what happens for the "middle" (30/30 and 20/2...
by asset_chaos
Thu May 19, 2016 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 2154

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

Between them Vanguard and M* report that Vanguard's total world stock index fund has about 5% in real estate and another 11% in oil and gas and basic materials, where gold and other miners and producers of commodities would be. "Merely" having broad global stock investments gets one a reas...
by asset_chaos
Fri May 13, 2016 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stocks benefiting most from low oil prices
Replies: 15
Views: 1238

Re: stocks benefiting most from low oil prices

Based on what I have read so far, low oil prices are here to stay. A few years ago, everyone (that everyone fellow again) was saying that high oil prices were here to stay; moreover, they had nowhere to go but up. I don't recall the exact reasons given, but I'm sure they were plausible. I think the...
by asset_chaos
Sat May 07, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing With a Trust
Replies: 10
Views: 1042

Re: Investing With a Trust

Disclaimer: not a tax or trust law expert, but I do manage a similar trust. Are you and your father (as trustee) planning on taking money out of the trust or on letting it accumulate? If you want to (or have to) let it accumulate inside the trust be aware that trust tax brackets are very compressed ...
by asset_chaos
Mon May 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World ETF Taxable
Replies: 9
Views: 1041

Re: Total World ETF Taxable

Biggest downfall I see is missing out on a TLH opportunity. It's simply a truism that the simpler the portfolio, the less opportunity for tax loss harvesting or for rebalancing. Of course, simplicity has its own compensating virtues, such as psychologically easier to stay the course, more time to d...
by asset_chaos
Sun May 01, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon
Replies: 16
Views: 1260

Re: Inherited IRA + Long Time Horizon

As noted, the problem with 100% stocks when you're forced to sell every year to distribute cash is that in down market years you have to sell more shares to meet the dollar figure for required distributions, leaving fewer shares in the account to participate in the eventual recovery. There's even a ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentrated Factor Indexing
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: Concentrated Factor Indexing

Sounds like a way to repackage and remarket active management. Quantitative active management is still active management. And loading up on concentration risk is a good way to have at least some expectation of beating the market, but it's still pretty risky.
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you find more valuable? [Simulation vs. Wisdom]
Replies: 7
Views: 957

Re: Which would you find more valuable? [Simulation vs. Wisdom]

The simulations provide, at best, data. Synthesis of lots of data about a particular area could be called knowledge. And integration of that knowledge with other areas of knowledge and experience could lead to wisdom. I would suggest the simulations could be a starting point but shouldn't be an endi...
by asset_chaos
Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity's "Enhanced" Index Funds, almost ten years later
Replies: 23
Views: 2792

Re: Fidelity's "Enhanced" Index Funds, almost ten years later

Looks like the Fidelity funds results were dominated by them being index funds, which is a good thing, with whatever enhancement reducing the drag of costs, which is also a good thing. (The bad thing being their costs were a bit too high.) In a similar sense the Vanguard, at least large cap, funds a...
by asset_chaos
Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing legends change their bond portfolio
Replies: 29
Views: 4653

Re: Investing legends change their bond portfolio

Everyone faces the full suite of different investing risks, not all of which you have to take and not all of which you have to consider equally important to you. Malkiel and Ellis seem to be making the implicit argument that they believe that the future risk of inflation adjusted loss for treasury d...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 02, 2016 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Landlord requiring copies of SSN
Replies: 73
Views: 4991

Re: Landlord requiring copies of SSN

Now I'm curious. Do some bank's statements routinely come with SSN printed on them? Mine doesn't. Or at least I don't think it does. I don't get paper statements, haven't for years; everything's online. And a social security card. I know my number and wouldn't have any problem giving it for a lease ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]
Replies: 23
Views: 1996

Re: No Intl. DM, Just Intl. EM? [International Developed Markets, Emerging Markets]

I like my business/stock investments diversified, highly diversified, as diversified as I can get. Therefore, I'm going to stick to total world as my core stock investment. Others may reasonably differ, betting that other, less diversified investment strategies may give better returns over particula...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 29, 2016 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why I'm Bailing from my Bond Fund
Replies: 25
Views: 3451

Re: Why I'm Bailing from my Bond Fund

The load is irrelevant. The fund was invested in, the load was paid, that money is gone, it's done. The only question is, is this particular fund something to keep going forward or not? I don't consider 50% in a bond fund in a trust to be particularly concentrated. I have half of a trust fund I admi...
by asset_chaos
Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle [may have said] TIPS give you "income risk"
Replies: 58
Views: 5075

Re: Jack Bogle says TIPS give you "income risk"

Bogle's usually right, but I do find that a somewhat odd way to look at TIPs. TIPs give you a government guaranteed real return that's usually above, but could be, zero. Corporates, yes indeed, have nominal interest rates above zero, but their real return could be less than zero. That income stream ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Mar 14, 2016 1:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I or should I start my own fund ?
Replies: 45
Views: 3846

Re: How do I or should I start my own fund ?

You might try to contact John Montgomery who founded Bridgeway Funds. He has been successful at switching careers to start his own fund company. While I don't closely follow the fund industry, after decades of investing he's the only person I've heard of that did something similar to what you want t...
by asset_chaos
Sun Mar 13, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Core Bond Fund opens to investors]
Replies: 107
Views: 14394

Re: [Vanguard Core Bond Fund opens to investors]

I find the existence of this fund puzzling. Two possible reasons for it come to mind. (1) Independent advisers that use vanguard have demanded it. Or, (2) it's a way for vanguard to legitimately redeploy the corporate substitution strategy. I recall that vanguard substituted short term corporate bon...
by asset_chaos
Thu Mar 03, 2016 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct
Replies: 2
Views: 584

The Market for Financial Adviser Misconduct

Interesting article at the Economist on financial adviser misconduct and the extent to which its done by repeat offenders http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21693975-americas-revolving-door-financial-advisers-who-do-down-their-clients-rotten . A couple of excerpts: In America, more ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me
Replies: 8
Views: 1294

Re: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me

Several folks have said securities lending introduces additional risk. At some level that makes intuitive sense---if there's a return, there ought to be some accompanying risk---but I thought it was very low to no risk because the borrower of the shares had to put up somewhat more than the shares' v...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 01, 2016 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me
Replies: 8
Views: 1294

small value index fund annual report: two things that struck me

I invest in Vanguard's small cap value index fund. The annual report recently came out. Two items struck me as interesting. 1) On the list of assets on page 62 under "Other Assets and Liabilities" is $1.5 million labeled as "Investment in Vanguard". My recollection is in previous...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ally Bank Billpay
Replies: 10
Views: 1340

Re: Ally Bank Billpay

I've had a bad experience with the new billpay at Ally. I'd had a credit card autopaid in full for over 2 years. January's bill wasn't paid, and I was charged interest and late fees by the card company. Ally customer service on getting reimbursed and getting the billpay fixed is currently going on 3...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Says Sending 71 Account E-Mails to Wrong Investor Was ‘Isolated Matter’
Replies: 1
Views: 994

Re: Vanguard Says Sending 71 Account E-Mails to Wrong Investor Was ‘Isolated Matter’

Many, many years ago my paper mailed Vanguard statement in its security envelope came secured with a rubber band to a bundle of other people's statements in their security envelopes. It was a couple of dozen other people's, not 71. I guess that's what decades of productivity enhancing technology wil...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 2371

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

The global market portfolio already has a goodly sized weighting in natural resources. Vanguard total world doesn't specifically list a natural resources sector but says ( https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/investments/portfoliodetails?fundId=0826 ) its industry sector b...
by asset_chaos
Wed Feb 17, 2016 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Using the New Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond Index fund (VTEAX)?
Replies: 7
Views: 1449

Re: Anyone Using the New Vanguard Tax Exempt Bond Index fund (VTEAX)?

I had a superficial look when this fund came out. I found no compelling reason to switch from vanguard's older intermediate muni fund. On the other hand, if I was new to municipal bonds being right for my situation, then I suspect this new muni index fund would be a competitive choice for investment...
by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond
Replies: 28
Views: 3550

Re: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond

Reasonable expectations of returns for stocks and bonds need to be conditioned on valuations at the start of your period of interest. The period that starts with interest rates at 15% and stock market p/e ratio at 9 has a reasonable expectation, though not a guarantee , of higher 20 year returns for...
by asset_chaos
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we really trust the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 3156

Re: Should we really trust the market?

Until Vanguard complains that high frequency trading has raised the costs to run index funds, I'm going to wait to worry about hft. And I recall reading a Gus Sauter interview from around the time he retired as Vanguard's chief investment officer, in which he said hft made it marginally easier to ru...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?
Replies: 6
Views: 521

Re: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?

I am growing increasingly uncomfortable with Vanguard's continuing increase in their international position in their target date funds and I need data to justify sticking with the target date AA vs. forming my own US only investment plan. If you want Vanguard's own arguments and data, look through ...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1403

Re: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio

You could invest through a target retirement fund. That's essentially, though not exactly, a 3-fund portfolio, but one that does the rebalancing for you---and it's even simpler than a 3-fund portfolio. It that's not right for you, if you want to see the moving parts and experience how they react in ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $25,000 Short Term
Replies: 7
Views: 742

Re: Investing $25,000 Short Term

18 month CD. Not knowing what a pre-paid debit account is, I wouldn't use one. But it sounds like an account you can spend from. Money that I've earmarked for a particular future pupose, I prefer to keep in an account that I cannot easily spend from.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int
Replies: 9
Views: 949

Re: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int

If you've already decided to do this, and it's within a tax-deferred account, then I can't think of a good reason to drag out the process. Make the change all now and go on to other, more exciting aspects of life.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015
Replies: 117
Views: 10570

Re: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015

Turbotax for many years. This year trying H&R Block. I have to say my initial attempt at using Block's software has not been happy. I bought a disk, installed the program and tried to import last year's turbotax pdf. It doesn't work. The advertising material had said Block would import turbotax....
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3721

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

Invest in broadly diversified, low cost funds, which are most likely to be index funds, and hold forever is Bogle's advice that is universally true for all investors everywhere. And it's his glorious gift to the world that he created the investment vehicles and environment that permit any investor t...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I hate ETFs!!! [Lessons learned from market not going as expected]
Replies: 68
Views: 7639

Re: I hate ETFs!!!

I don't favor etfs, but I don't hate them either. I prefer traditional funds, probably because I was investing before etfs existed, and I'll happily admit the preference may not be entirely rational. On the other hand, I've never needed or wanted to do anything in investing quite so precise as the O...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 133
Views: 8124

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

In bad times the investor also runs up against the risk that returns on offer may not help them meet their financial goals. In which case the response can range from the delusional to the rational. The pension fund committee that assumes 8.5% returns, regardless of valuations or interest rate, is, i...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1332

Re: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

Thanks for the input. As expected, nothing useful that I can do.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1332

anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

I have an inherited IRA that I take rmd's from. A stock fund inside the IRA now has a long-term capital loss. The total IRA, being invested mostly in bonds, has an overall gain. Is there any potential benefit to harvesting this loss? I can't think of any, but, as my ignorance is extensive, is seems ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 3945

Re: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules

Interesting that Bogle has changed from 60/40 to 50/50. To all those that strictly adhere to Bogle's own investment style (US-only, fixed allocation, etc) just remember this move is what he decided is best for him , That only thing I find notable is that, on my understanding of Bogle's age, this is...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lima, Peru advice
Replies: 23
Views: 2275

Re: Lima, Peru advice

Yes, the Plaza de Armas with the palace and cathedral are good tourist places. Also near the central city are other churches with catacombs, and a museum about the inquisition. The national museum had a few years ago (not sure if still there) a good exhibition on the recent discoveries at the pyrami...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 9814

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

What do Bogleheads make of this dire warning? That it's a slow news days. This headline was on the front webpage of cnn and the bbc and my local newspaper, so it's probably featured on many news outlets around the world. RBC struck publicity gold by appealing to journalists' love of even disaster p...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.
Replies: 20
Views: 2823

Re: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.

Indeed, in my and my spouse's Australian superannuation funds the past year domestic stock and bond returns were respectively somewhat below and somewhat above zero, but the world ex Australia stocks were up over 10%. Suppressing returns here, boosting returns there, currency fluctuations can be eve...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Bear Market Truths"
Replies: 16
Views: 2645

Re: "Ten Bear Market Truths"

Are we in a bear market?

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