Search found 1257 matches

by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Floating Net Worth w/ VT after 5 Years
Replies: 52
Views: 5574

Re: Floating Net Worth w/ VT after 5 Years

Since it opened in 2008, I've invested in total world (in the old fashioned mutual fund form) as my core stock holding. I have reasons, but they're very different from the OP's. I have no predictions of US decline, relative or absolute. Stocks may hedge inflation over the long term, but I think the ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 142
Views: 8654

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Vanguard must have anticipated this thread because they've produced a report https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGLBD.pdf dated April 2018 to add their two cents. Going global with bonds: The benefits of a more global fixed income allocation ■ An allocation to global bond markets gives investors ex...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Uncertain what to do about trust distribution
Replies: 7
Views: 727

Re: Uncertain what to do about trust distribution

My grandparents recently passed and left behind a trust which is being distributed throughout my family. I am going to be receiving just over $100k and have no control and little visibility into the distribution of these assets. I'm thinking that I'd like to reinvest the assets as Vanguard index fu...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 142
Views: 8654

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I think an interesting question is: how does it benefit Vanguard to offer these funds? That is a good question. Vanguard is expanding all over the world and wants, I assume, to manage the bond (and stock) portfolios of investors all over the world. I expect this brings expertise and comfort in non-...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 92
Views: 10931

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

At Vanguard's financial advisor site there is a large and detailed presentation on the new factor funds https://advisors.vanguard.com/web/cf/factor/basics with sections called Factor Basics, Factor Applications, Our Difference, and Factor Products. It might be the flashy online version of the presen...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: N.Y. Attorney General Forces Vanguard, BlackRock, Others To Disclose Active Share
Replies: 5
Views: 1081

Re: N.Y. Attorney General Forces Vanguard, BlackRock, Others To Disclose Active Share

The active Vanguard funds I own are the intermediate TIPs and tax-exempt bond funds. I expect, and have found to be true, these active funds to be index-like. Unless the active share score of these finds is surprisingly high, I may have to conclude that the NY attorney general may have engaged in th...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Video Recommnding World Market Cap Weight
Replies: 4
Views: 538

Re: Vanguard Video Recommnding World Market Cap Weight

Global stock and bond markets are about $90 trillion (FTSE Global All Cap Index plus Citi World Broad Investment-Grade Bond Index) and Vanguard manages, what, $5 trillion now. Speculation, but maybe they are anticipating the day when Vanguard will effectively be managing the total global portfolio, ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Apr 13, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is global debt an issue for investors?
Replies: 17
Views: 1067

Re: Is global debt an issue for investors?

For a global investor net debt is zero by definition.
by asset_chaos
Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV: Buy & Hold, or Trade Trade Trade?!
Replies: 5
Views: 1016

Re: SCV: Buy & Hold, or Trade Trade Trade?!

A well-respected member on this forum admits (confesses?) to frequently trading his SCV shares. He apparently enjoys consistent higher returns ... Trading them for what? I have a small-value tilt. I treat it like my other investment classes: I have rebalancing bands and trade only enough to keep ev...
by asset_chaos
Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8367

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

Short, simple answers here; For a better worded and more nuanced explanation a good reference is Bogle's book Commonsense on Mutual Funds. Start with bonds because they're simpler. Bond returns are due entirely to the interest rate of the bond. Historically there were higher interest rates than toda...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will VTWSX expense ratio go down in the future
Replies: 6
Views: 945

Re: Will VTWSX expense ratio go down in the future

There's a thread following total world's lowering expense ratio here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=212013 with a graph towards the bottom showing expense ratio versus asset size for the fund. And, of course, check out our own wiki page on the subject https://www.bogleheads.or...
by asset_chaos
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Complexity Not Helping Bond Funds
Replies: 1
Views: 452

Re: Larry Swedroe: Complexity Not Helping Bond Funds

While the average gross alpha of the bond funds studied was 0.39% per year, net-of-fee alphas were -0.41% per year. Due to high costs the active bond funds' own investors lose out, but the active bond managers take a little money in aggregate from others. Question: who are these schmucks? It's not ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016
Replies: 17
Views: 1649

Re: Corruption vs. Country Stock Returns, 1997-2016

Like higher GDP growth rates must translate into higher stock returns, avoiding international because those foreigners are corrupt appears to be one more investing thesis that may sound plausible but doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I suspect these and many similar ideas---the kind everyone knows is tr...
by asset_chaos
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blackrock: new portfolios which remove exposure to civilian firearms
Replies: 34
Views: 1782

Re: Blackrock: new portfolios which remove exposure to civilian firearms

TxAg wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:08 pm
Timely sales gimmick?
Bingo. Any investment thesis based on the latest news headlines is unlikely to be---or to ever become---a necessary investment. Although, at least the fee reduction is a better deal for those inclined to invest this way.
by asset_chaos
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?
Replies: 66
Views: 6407

Re: Is Lockheed Martin about to become the biggest company in history?

I believe this falls into the category of interesting, if true. Best wishes for their success, but I don't think I'll change my approach to life, much less to investing, just yet.
by asset_chaos
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share Dilution in Emerging & Developed Markets
Replies: 24
Views: 2014

Re: Share Dilution in Emerging & Developed Markets

https://s7.postimg.org/godq1qm9n/Untitled.jpg Source: Yardeni To ask a question a bit off topic, does this chart show US companies buying back shares in what appears to be an irrational manner? There seems to be large buying of shares up to 2008 when share prices are high or rising, then lots of sh...
by asset_chaos
Tue Mar 27, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Funds Direct Access w/o Advisor ? John Hancock
Replies: 15
Views: 1980

Re: DFA Funds Direct Access w/o Advisor ? John Hancock

The word on the street is that DFA guys aren't doing that great in terms of their products bringing value added. Everyone knows their secret sauce and it hasn't worked well for last 20 years. I never seem to get the word on the street, but if you mean 10 years, that's entirely correct; past 20 year...
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 23, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How know whether stock is international?
Replies: 16
Views: 1108

Re: How know whether stock is international?

As synchronicity would have it, there is an article in the economist ( https://www.economist.com/news/business/21739165-golden-age-companies-having-fistfuls-different-passports-over-corporate-citizens ) discussing these large companies that are hard to place, reasons their number balloned in an age ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Keep calm, and step forward
Replies: 1
Views: 892

Re: Swedroe: Keep calm, and step forward

On a quarterly basis US stocks lose to US bonds on average about 37% of the time---oh, let's speak in round numbers---about 40% of the time. That's been the case at least since total market index funds came into existence in the early 90s, and I think, based on Schiller's book, has been been approxi...
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 2800

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets

Any supposed advantage active might have in “inefficient” markets like small cap, international small, or emerging is also nonexistent. I recall Bill Bernstein noting this in his first book. He attributed the failure of active in supposedly inefficient markets to the fact that inefficient markets t...
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How know whether stock is international?
Replies: 16
Views: 1108

Re: How know whether stock is international?

There are many multinationals these days, but even multinationals tend to have a home market that they more fully penetrate. For example, if the headquarters is in Germany, and they do most of their business in Europe, I don't think think you can call that an American stock regardless of whether th...
by asset_chaos
Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How know whether stock is international?
Replies: 16
Views: 1108

Re: How know whether stock is international?

Did the companies that did tax inversions ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_inversion ) become "international" companies? They moved their legal domiciles outside the US while retaining their business activities as before. They are legally no longer US companies. The link lists notable inversions....
by asset_chaos
Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA US Targeted Value DFFVX
Replies: 3
Views: 497

Re: DFA US Targeted Value DFFVX

If you go to morningstar and look at a growth chart with both funds, you'll see that over the past 10 years the plots are practically indistinguishable. However, if you ask for the maximum time, the plots go back nearly 20 years, and there is a noticeable difference with DFFVX ahead with what by eye...
by asset_chaos
Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?
Replies: 21
Views: 1146

Re: Which foreign market sector will do the best long term?

One of the beauties and one of the trials of total market index investing is that by definition you always own the best performing market sectors---no matter how you choose to define market sectors----and you always hold the worst performing sectors. If I could know (know, not guess or estimate or p...
by asset_chaos
Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1159

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

Doesn't it depend on your goals for the short time? If you want maximum safety, then a treasury bond, maturity matched to your time frame, would accomplish your goal but be totally undiversified. On the other hand, if speculation, having a chance at a really high return over the short time, is the g...
by asset_chaos
Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think that the higher valuations of the US are justified by a different sector composition?
Replies: 14
Views: 1505

Re: Do you think that the higher valuations of the US are justified by a different sector composition?

Sounds a little like self justifying twaddle. Similar to the argumets in late 90s about how the "new" economy businesses would sore and take over the world while "old" economy businesses would wither and die. Nonsense then, nonsense now. It's an uncomfortable fact that high valuations today mean low...
by asset_chaos
Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [EU] This is how spanish Robo-advisors are doing its Asset Allocation
Replies: 5
Views: 506

Re: [EU] This is how spanish Robo-advisors are doing its Asset Allocation

I'm not European, but all of these investment models seem ok, as long as costs are reasonable; however, they all seem to have quirks that don't obviously make sense. I will state upfront my own opinion for stock investments is to start with the global market and then see if some tilt to your home co...
by asset_chaos
Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World expense ratio lowered
Replies: 38
Views: 8397

Re: Total World expense ratio lowered

To update, I logged on to my account today to be greeted by "As of 02/22/2018, the expense ratio on your Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Investor Shares has changed from 0.21% to 0.19%." I assume expenses for the etf shares officially lowered too. The march of lower expense ratios continues. I...
by asset_chaos
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Words of wisdom from Vanguard re:current market volatility
Replies: 7
Views: 1556

Re: Words of wisdom from Vanguard re:current market volatility

Counter-cyclical communications are one of the many things I like about Vanguard.
by asset_chaos
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A glidepath formula
Replies: 15
Views: 1873

Re: A glidepath formula

Anything is good enough that keeps you comfortable with your plan and that you can follow. Where are you now, where do you want to be a specific number of years from now, draw a straight line, and there's your first order approximation to a "perfect" glide path.
by asset_chaos
Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why bother with separate and Growth and Value index funds?
Replies: 17
Views: 1841

Re: Why bother with separate and Growth and Value index funds?

Yes, it seems nearly pointless to hold equal amounts of growth and value index funds; just hold total market instead. I said nearly: I believe there is a conceivable point in creating more rebalancing opportunities. But I think any small benefit would be outweighed by the waste of your time in doing...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: market timing in a random walk
Replies: 39
Views: 2383

Re: market timing in a random walk

If the market is truly random, then you can't really do better by trying to buy and sell at the right time. But you can't really do much worse, either ... Now, if it is indeed possible to systematically hurt yourself by timing the market, then that must mean there is a pattern in the market that yo...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 5065

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

As this concern has been voiced publicly by many people, many times over the past 10 (or 20?) years, surely the information is by now priced into the municipal bond market. And, as I haven't a clue as to how to ferret out the better class of municipal bond myself, I shall have to continue to rely on...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the expense ratio of VWRD ever drop? (NRA)
Replies: 9
Views: 1175

Re: Will the expense ratio of VWRD ever drop? (NRA)

I found the graph I mentioned above plotting expense ratio (in basis points) versus asset size (in billions of $) for the investor classes of total stock market index fund and total world index fund. Note the logarithmic x-axis. Data is derived from fund annual reports, and the expense ratio is the ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 27, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the expense ratio of VWRD ever drop? (NRA)
Replies: 9
Views: 1175

Re: Will the expense ratio of VWRD ever drop? (NRA)

Vanguard runs funds at cost. It doesn't lower expense ratios as a marketing tool, but, as assets rise, the economies of asset management scale are given to the fund's investors. M*.uk says vwrd has about US$1.7 billion and the investor share class of the mutual fund vtwsx has about US$1.6 billion. H...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition
Replies: 12
Views: 1477

Re: Portfolio Watch still sucks, international composition edition

Here's another take, then: what this shows is that regardless of the widespread impression that nowadays international stock is basically up to all the same standards as U.S. stock, obviously it is not easy or cheap for Vanguard to get the same level of information we routinely expect for U.S. stoc...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Index to follow Global Bond Market
Replies: 7
Views: 769

Re: Best Index to follow Global Bond Market

The difference in amounts of emerging market government debt weighting in an index like Citi WBIG and in a fund like Vanguard's global bond is probably because the WBIG index tries to be all inclusive, while the fund follows an index for investment grade bonds only. The smaller amount of emerging ma...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 46
Views: 5814

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

I am relatively new to Investing. For me this is the key statement in your post. My suggestion is to never invest in something that you don't understand how you expect the investment to behave or how it fits and works with the rest of your investment portfolio. For right now, I suggest putting all ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2838

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Isn't that expected? Fluctuations of the stock portion are much larger than for the bonds, so dominate the correlation of co-movement of the mixed portfolios with the stock market. But is correlation what you want to measure anyway? If you calculate beta, the size of co-movement with the stock marke...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 4824

Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy You can figure out the pattern. It's random. And I don't mean that flippantly. I once did a little market timing study that included constructing from hindsight a...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 62
Views: 4918

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

In round numbers, US is about 50% of global stock market capitalization, Europe about 20%, Euro-area about 10%, Germany about 3%. Those who advocate that American investors be 100% invested in American listed stocks are only a factor of 2 different from the total global stock market weight. If a Eur...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]
Replies: 8
Views: 641

Re: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]

I think every investment at all times has an element of political risk that rules and regulations about investment or taxation of investment can be changed unfavorably. However, since any rule changes associated with brexit don't yet exist, there is no way to say whether the existing political risk ...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you have a antivirus for you Android phone?
Replies: 20
Views: 1497

Re: Do you have a antivirus for you Android phone?

yes, use the free version of avg.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1857

Re: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks

I believe your question is overly broad. If you narrow the scope and be more specific, you'll probably find more satisfactory information. That said, a place to start could be market history for individual countries, and for that a good place to start is the Dimson, March and Staunton CREDIT SUISSE ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it true index funds are over-weighted in tech?
Replies: 15
Views: 1208

Re: Is it true index funds are over-weighted in tech?

I remember a thread a while back, that talked about how hard it can be, in such a long bull market, to wait for the other shoe to drop. I get the feeling that I ought to be doing something, when I'm sure that what's best is to just stay the course You are right. It is sometimes hard to stay the cou...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ATTENTION: Vanguard 529s? - Better Check Your Balance(s)
Replies: 44
Views: 3011

Re: ATTENTION: Vanguard 529s? - Better Check Your Balance(s)

I'll chime in. Noticed the 529 zero balance problem when I logged in yesterday to look at something else. Sent an email noting the discrepancy and expect they'll get it fixed up soon enough. In fact, logging in this morning, I see that the 529 balance is back.
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 6176

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

While the 500 Index fund is the "grandaddy of them all" and a reasonable proxy of the total stock market, it is not the total stock market and concerns about sector concentration are not entirely far-fetched. However, anyone so concerned can easily invest in a broader index fund, not turn to these a...
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home country bias in bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 435

Re: Home country bias in bonds

Are you effectively trying to decide between Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest Index Fund (essentially an Australian equivalent of US total bond index) and Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond Index Fund (Hedged)? I think it's much of a muchness as far as either will likely be a safe repository of money ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World expense ratio lowered
Replies: 38
Views: 8397

Re: Total World expense ratio lowered

To update this old thread, the annual report for total world came to my inbox a couple of days ago. The actual operating expenses, given in a footnote, for the fiscal year, which is end of Oct, were 19 bp for the investor shares. In the past this has foreshadowed an announcement in the following Feb...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?
Replies: 9
Views: 674

Re: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?

As they say, all models are wrong, some models are useful. You get to decide where in the hierarchy of possible models you need to be to most directly answer the questions you think important.