Search found 1221 matches

by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Index to follow Global Bond Market
Replies: 7
Views: 595

Re: Best Index to follow Global Bond Market

The difference in amounts of emerging market government debt weighting in an index like Citi WBIG and in a fund like Vanguard's global bond is probably because the WBIG index tries to be all inclusive, while the fund follows an index for investment grade bonds only. The smaller amount of emerging ma...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 4296

Re: Adding 200k to Portfolio, don't want boring old VTSAX again -your criticism, suggestion for a little extra risk?

I am relatively new to Investing. For me this is the key statement in your post. My suggestion is to never invest in something that you don't understand how you expect the investment to behave or how it fits and works with the rest of your investment portfolio. For right now, I suggest putting all ...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2625

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

Isn't that expected? Fluctuations of the stock portion are much larger than for the bonds, so dominate the correlation of co-movement of the mixed portfolios with the stock market. But is correlation what you want to measure anyway? If you calculate beta, the size of co-movement with the stock marke...
by asset_chaos
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 34
Views: 4034

Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

I stare at it and stare at it, wishing I could figure out the pattern...you'd think some genius would come up with an algorithm. :greedy You can figure out the pattern. It's random. And I don't mean that flippantly. I once did a little market timing study that included constructing from hindsight a...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3282

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

In round numbers, US is about 50% of global stock market capitalization, Europe about 20%, Euro-area about 10%, Germany about 3%. Those who advocate that American investors be 100% invested in American listed stocks are only a factor of 2 different from the total global stock market weight. If a Eur...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]
Replies: 8
Views: 569

Re: Risks of buying ETFs in London Stock Exchange [from EU]

I think every investment at all times has an element of political risk that rules and regulations about investment or taxation of investment can be changed unfavorably. However, since any rule changes associated with brexit don't yet exist, there is no way to say whether the existing political risk ...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you have a antivirus for you Android phone?
Replies: 20
Views: 1375

Re: Do you have a antivirus for you Android phone?

yes, use the free version of avg.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1742

Re: Becoming comfortable with International Stocks

I believe your question is overly broad. If you narrow the scope and be more specific, you'll probably find more satisfactory information. That said, a place to start could be market history for individual countries, and for that a good place to start is the Dimson, March and Staunton CREDIT SUISSE ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it true index funds are over-weighted in tech?
Replies: 15
Views: 1097

Re: Is it true index funds are over-weighted in tech?

I remember a thread a while back, that talked about how hard it can be, in such a long bull market, to wait for the other shoe to drop. I get the feeling that I ought to be doing something, when I'm sure that what's best is to just stay the course You are right. It is sometimes hard to stay the cou...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 30, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ATTENTION: Vanguard 529s? - Better Check Your Balance(s)
Replies: 44
Views: 2837

Re: ATTENTION: Vanguard 529s? - Better Check Your Balance(s)

I'll chime in. Noticed the 529 zero balance problem when I logged in yesterday to look at something else. Sent an email noting the discrepancy and expect they'll get it fixed up soon enough. In fact, logging in this morning, I see that the 529 balance is back.
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech
Replies: 67
Views: 5702

Re: The Growing Peril of Index Funds: Too Much Tech

While the 500 Index fund is the "grandaddy of them all" and a reasonable proxy of the total stock market, it is not the total stock market and concerns about sector concentration are not entirely far-fetched. However, anyone so concerned can easily invest in a broader index fund, not turn to these a...
by asset_chaos
Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home country bias in bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 395

Re: Home country bias in bonds

Are you effectively trying to decide between Vanguard Australian Fixed Interest Index Fund (essentially an Australian equivalent of US total bond index) and Vanguard Global Aggregate Bond Index Fund (Hedged)? I think it's much of a muchness as far as either will likely be a safe repository of money ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World expense ratio lowered
Replies: 35
Views: 6940

Re: Total World expense ratio lowered

To update this old thread, the annual report for total world came to my inbox a couple of days ago. The actual operating expenses, given in a footnote, for the fiscal year, which is end of Oct, were 19 bp for the investor shares. In the past this has foreshadowed an announcement in the following Feb...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 22, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?
Replies: 9
Views: 595

Re: Do risk measurements cause major flaws in financial models?

As they say, all models are wrong, some models are useful. You get to decide where in the hierarchy of possible models you need to be to most directly answer the questions you think important.
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 15, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should a trust own taxable or tax exempt bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 422

Re: Should a trust own taxable or tax exempt bonds?

As trust distributions keep their character, if tax exempt income would be appropriate for the beneficiaries if generated in their own personal accounts, then tax exempt bonds are an appropriate investment within the trust.
by asset_chaos
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an "expense war" going on between fund companies?
Replies: 3
Views: 734

Re: Is there an "expense war" going on between fund companies?

I feel Vanguard's business model gives them the most leeway to lower theirs more then the other companies. I think Vanguard's business model gives them the most incentive but, in fact, less leeway to lower expenses. Vanguard runs each and every fund at cost. In contrast Schwab and Fidelity run thei...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic
Replies: 8
Views: 1183

Re: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic

Appears to be Dunn's Law in operation. “When an asset class does relatively well, an index fund in the asset class does even better. In contrast, when an asset class does poorly, the active managers do better in that asset class." Google "Dunn's Law" or see past thread, https://www.bogleheads.org/f...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatility of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund
Replies: 14
Views: 1490

Re: Volatility of Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund

I don't notice monthly volatility because I don't look that frequently. But you've piqued my interest. If I go to M*'s page for VWIUX (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral), indeed in the 3 month growth of 10k chart, last month looks somewhat more volatile than the prior couple of mont...
by asset_chaos
Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic
Replies: 8
Views: 1183

Re: The International Index and the Relentless Rules of Humble Arithmetic

Appears to be Dunn's Law in operation. “When an asset class does relatively well, an index fund in the asset class does even better. In contrast, when an asset class does poorly, the active managers do better in that asset class." Google "Dunn's Law" or see past thread, https://www.bogleheads.org/fo...
by asset_chaos
Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2366

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

Maduro goes on TV for hours a day. He's gotta say something to fill the time. That's the dirty secret of all news media: there are just so many column-inches and so many hours of airtime every day that have to be filled whether or not there's anything actually interesting to say.
by asset_chaos
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg--BlackRock and Vanguard Are Less Than a Decade Away From Managing $20 Trillion
Replies: 4
Views: 793

Re: Bloomberg--BlackRock and Vanguard Are Less Than a Decade Away From Managing $20 Trillion

Yes, the number of dollars is big compared to the numbers on most people's bank account statements, but the size of financial markets has increased too, and it's the percentage of the total global stock/bond markets managed that's important. This article from 2015 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 26, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?
Replies: 8
Views: 763

Re: Equity beta. What does ishares mean?

Vanguard's intermediate corporate bond fund vicsx has a similar loading on beta. From portfolio visualizer with data from 2010 Factor Loading Standard Error t-stat p-value 95% Confidence Interval Market (Rm-Rf) 0.04 0.025 1.488 0.141 -0.013...0.088 Size (SMB) -0.03 0.031 -0.813 0.418 -0.088...0.037 ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again
Replies: 7
Views: 1585

Re: WSJ - Wall St. Predictions Wrong Again

The stock predictions seem to say that the average stock analyst is a perpetual optimist---or at least paid to give a perpetually rosy view of stock market prospects. The little lines always point up and are most egregiously wrong when the stock market declines. When markets go up, the predictions d...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 1545

Re: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?

Thank you, good to know. However, in 20+ years of living abroad, I've never had withholding happen.
by asset_chaos
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?
Replies: 8
Views: 1545

Re: Does Vanguard hunt down overseas investors?

The article claims the worries are not about US regulations but from regulators in other countries. I hadn't heard of this as a big issue before, but from the point of view of the foreign countries, they would have the same worries as the IRS about their residents using overseas accounts to hide mon...
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Did you want to set up a payment plan for that?
Replies: 19
Views: 2518

Re: Did you want to set up a payment plan for that?

I figure anything they're pushing me towards is meant to somehow, on average benefit the company at my expense. Since I don't want to spend time to figure out where the 'gotcha' might lie, I always decline such offers.
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?
Replies: 20
Views: 1939

Re: Passive investing is a 'chaotic system' that could be dangerous?

I just started a thread here https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=232300 on an article from the Economist that could have been written as a rebuttal to some of the gripes in Schiller's interview. And there are several other threads debunking this kinds of complaints about index funds.
by asset_chaos
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Criticism of index-tracking funds is ill-directed
Replies: 3
Views: 598

Criticism of index-tracking funds is ill-directed

Article from the Economist rebutting a couple of the standard industry gripes about index funds, https://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21731333-criticism-index-tracking-funds-ill-directed . In any other industry, [money going into index funds] would be universally welcomed as a sign th...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6684

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

According to Rob Arnott's group, Research Affiliates What did they predict in the past? Were they correct? I just did a quick google search and I'm not finding a lot of their old predictions. They run a market timing---excuse me, tactical allocation---fund for PIMCO, PAUPX. M*'s fund front page say...
by asset_chaos
Sun Nov 05, 2017 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Blackrock think it's all a game?
Replies: 33
Views: 4994

Re: Does Blackrock think it's all a game?

Unfortunately this theme of gamification is moving into lots of places that we used to consider serious, education, health, finance. People have noticed how effective gambling machines and video games are at keeping people's attention, so other areas are trying the same tactics.
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 26
Views: 2807

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

"Being fully diversified means always having to say you're sorry." :happy You don't have to cherry-pick the sorrow. You could also cherry-pick the glee. Well diversified portfolios always contain both the best performing and worst performing segments of the market, no matter how you care to segment...
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD
Replies: 26
Views: 2807

Re: 401k "only" up 13.5% YTD

As a general benchmark, I keep a M* tracking portfolio for the global total stock/bond markets, approximated with Vanguard index funds and initially weighted with Sharpe's method ( https://web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/ ). As of this writing, it's about 57% stocks, has a ytd return of nearly 13%...
by asset_chaos
Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 57
Views: 3881

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

If you could only hold Apple and the bottom 1000 stocks in TSM, would you hold them at market weight? Sounds like Finland when Nokia was well above half of total Finnish market cap. Should I find myself in such a situation, the answer for me would be to expand my thinking to the total global stock ...
by asset_chaos
Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on GAA or GAL (Global Asset Allocation ETFs)?
Replies: 3
Views: 401

Re: Thoughts on GAA or GAL (Global Asset Allocation ETFs)?

In his RISMAT book ( web.stanford.edu/~wfsharpe/RISMAT/ ) Sharpe lists four Vanguard funds (the "total" market funds for stocks and bonds) that he uses in the book to approximate holding the global stock/bond portfolio. A glance at the holdings of GAA ( http://www.cambriafunds.com/gaa.aspx ) does no...
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 30, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard
Replies: 15
Views: 2824

Re: Bloomberg: Smart Beta Debate Sparks Identity Crisis at Vanguard

Identity crisis seems an odd way to put it. Vanguard's quantitative equity group, which has been around for more than a little while, runs factor funds but, it appears, only in the UK so far. And Vanguard is not wishy-washy in their descriptive language about these factor funds: they are active fund...
by asset_chaos
Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]
Replies: 18
Views: 1413

Re: Investing in ETFs MSCI World + MSCI Emerging Market [Germany]

See if you can use the MSCI Core World and Core Emerging markets etfs instead. Exactly the same investment at a substantially lower management fee. The 1.5% brokerage fee seems like it could be lower too, bu I don't know enough about European brokerage choices to recommend alternatives. Check out Bo...
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead investing in Spain -- a forum thread
Replies: 8
Views: 1841

Re: Boglehead investing in Spain -- a forum thread

Vanguard lists its global branches here https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site/home. Among those listed, one is Spain with a webpage here https://global.vanguard.com/portal/site ... /documents. A cursory look suggests Vanguard directs Spanish investors to their Irish funds.
by asset_chaos
Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)
Replies: 11
Views: 1833

Re: Vanguard Global Bond Index Portfolio (annuity)

Vanguard operations outside the US have offered a global bond index fund (based on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Float Adjusted Index Hedged) for a number of years (6 or 7 at a guess). See, e.g., Swiss vanguard.ch. In Australia Vanguard has just this year started offering a global bond index fund. ...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 06, 2017 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 52
Views: 6605

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Total world, holding around 98% of investable market cap of companies irrespective of where they're headquartered or listed, renders discussions like these about fluctuations of market sectors strictly for entertainment purposes.
by asset_chaos
Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Carry Factor Spans Assets
Replies: 14
Views: 2097

Re: Larry Swedroe: Carry Factor Spans Assets

To get back to the original issue of carry factor. "The carry factor is the tendency for higher-yielding assets to provide higher returns than lower-yielding assets." Does that imply that Wisdomtree and Siegel were right all along about dividend weighting their portfolios? I think I recall years ag...
by asset_chaos
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Carry Factor Spans Assets
Replies: 14
Views: 2097

Re: Larry Swedroe: Carry Factor Spans Assets

To get back to the original issue of carry factor. "The carry factor is the tendency for higher-yielding assets to provide higher returns than lower-yielding assets." Does that imply that Wisdomtree and Siegel were right all along about dividend weighting their portfolios? I think I recall years ago...
by asset_chaos
Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"
Replies: 30
Views: 5197

Re: Ethereum (cryptocurrency) flash crash, 6/21/2017, $339->$0.10 in "seconds"

Cryptocurrencies fall into that bucket labeled 'things I don't understand at all'. (Admittedly it's a big bucket.) Therefore I'm not enticed to invest there at all, regardless of any touted investment advantage.
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 5262

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

At the risk of being roundly criticized for ignoring correlations, stock prices and other things, there is a mean field type of argument one can make that only requires there be a relationship between the diversified portfolio return minus the risk-free return, call it R, and the riskiness of the d...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 5262

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

At the risk of being roundly criticized for ignoring correlations, stock prices and other things, there is a mean field type of argument one can make that only requires there be a relationship between the diversified portfolio return minus the risk-free return, call it R, and the riskiness of the di...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Why do you want to come here?" Hiring Manager Question
Replies: 19
Views: 3171

Re: "Why do you want to come here?" Hiring Manager Question

Similar thing happened to me. In hiring interviews they were worried I'd come and leave soon so they asked to have a contract clause whereby I'd repay a pro rata share of moving expenses if I left before three years. I said, sure I have no problem with that. One strategy (and you'd have to judge whe...
by asset_chaos
Fri Aug 25, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Announces Plans To Launch Total Corporate Bond ETF
Replies: 42
Views: 7480

Re: Vanguard Announces Plans To Launch Total Corporate Bond ETF

" The fund will be structured as an ETF of ETFs, investing directly in three existing, low-cost ETFs: Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCSH), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCLT). " Weird. I would think one of the advantages o...
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 22, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...
Replies: 35
Views: 4674

Re: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...

A1. I do tilt but would not call it necessary. Just out of curiosity, what tilts do you choose to add to Total World? Not that it should at all influence what you do, but, while I invest in total world as my core stock fund, I also hold three small value funds (vanguard small value and the wisdomtr...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...
Replies: 35
Views: 4674

Re: Total World (VT, VTWSX) Tilt? Simplicity...

1. To those of you who hold Total World, do you find it unnecessary to tilt? For me I'm realizing I would rather just hold the market weight and increase my equities in my AA if I want more risk. 2. Again to those of you who hold Total World: Do you ever worry about if/when the USA drops to less th...
by asset_chaos
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the allocation of the Bogleheads logo?
Replies: 6
Views: 2472

Re: What is the allocation of the Bogleheads logo?

It's a Bogleheads Rorschach test: what allocation do you see?
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 08, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Low Cost Australian Superannuation Provider?
Replies: 4
Views: 546

Re: Low Cost Australian Superannuation Provider?

$50 odd dollars a month does seem like a lot on that balance. Are you paying life and disability insurance premiums as part of that? Insurance through super is often a good deal, and many super funds sign up members automatically for some base level of insurance, but if you don't need it, you can ca...