Search found 1051 matches

by asset_chaos
Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond
Replies: 28
Views: 3176

Re: Is there a rule of thumb for 50/50 Total Stock/Total Bond

Reasonable expectations of returns for stocks and bonds need to be conditioned on valuations at the start of your period of interest. The period that starts with interest rates at 15% and stock market p/e ratio at 9 has a reasonable expectation, though not a guarantee , of higher 20 year returns for...
by asset_chaos
Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we really trust the market?
Replies: 20
Views: 2898

Re: Should we really trust the market?

Until Vanguard complains that high frequency trading has raised the costs to run index funds, I'm going to wait to worry about hft. And I recall reading a Gus Sauter interview from around the time he retired as Vanguard's chief investment officer, in which he said hft made it marginally easier to ru...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?
Replies: 6
Views: 464

Re: Is there a chart that tracks the major world stock and bond indexes?

I am growing increasingly uncomfortable with Vanguard's continuing increase in their international position in their target date funds and I need data to justify sticking with the target date AA vs. forming my own US only investment plan. If you want Vanguard's own arguments and data, look through ...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio
Replies: 11
Views: 1107

Re: How do I decide on Asset Allocation for a 3-fund portfolio

You could invest through a target retirement fund. That's essentially, though not exactly, a 3-fund portfolio, but one that does the rebalancing for you---and it's even simpler than a 3-fund portfolio. It that's not right for you, if you want to see the moving parts and experience how they react in ...
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing $25,000 Short Term
Replies: 7
Views: 646

Re: Investing $25,000 Short Term

18 month CD. Not knowing what a pre-paid debit account is, I wouldn't use one. But it sounds like an account you can spend from. Money that I've earmarked for a particular future pupose, I prefer to keep in an account that I cannot easily spend from.
by asset_chaos
Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int
Replies: 9
Views: 822

Re: Switch from 75/25 US/Int to 60/40 US/Int

If you've already decided to do this, and it's within a tax-deferred account, then I can't think of a good reason to drag out the process. Make the change all now and go on to other, more exciting aspects of life.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015
Replies: 77
Views: 5026

Re: TaxAct Plus vs TurboTax vs H&R Block for 2015

Turbotax for many years. This year trying H&R Block. I have to say my initial attempt at using Block's software has not been happy. I bought a disk, installed the program and tried to import last year's turbotax pdf. It doesn't work. The advertising material had said Block would import turbotax....
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]
Replies: 44
Views: 3308

Re: Jack's nuances. [Jack Bogle vs. fixed income, bonds]

Invest in broadly diversified, low cost funds, which are most likely to be index funds, and hold forever is Bogle's advice that is universally true for all investors everywhere. And it's his glorious gift to the world that he created the investment vehicles and environment that permit any investor t...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I hate ETFs!!! [Lessons learned from market not going as expected]
Replies: 68
Views: 6511

Re: I hate ETFs!!!

I don't favor etfs, but I don't hate them either. I prefer traditional funds, probably because I was investing before etfs existed, and I'll happily admit the preference may not be entirely rational. On the other hand, I've never needed or wanted to do anything in investing quite so precise as the O...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?
Replies: 132
Views: 6442

Re: Hold risk constant or hold return constant?

In bad times the investor also runs up against the risk that returns on offer may not help them meet their financial goals. In which case the response can range from the delusional to the rational. The pension fund committee that assumes 8.5% returns, regardless of valuations or interest rate, is, i...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 16, 2016 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1166

Re: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

Thanks for the input. As expected, nothing useful that I can do.
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?
Replies: 13
Views: 1166

anything to do with a capital loss inside an IRA?

I have an inherited IRA that I take rmd's from. A stock fund inside the IRA now has a long-term capital loss. The total IRA, being invested mostly in bonds, has an overall gain. Is there any potential benefit to harvesting this loss? I can't think of any, but, as my ignorance is extensive, is seems ...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 15, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 3735

Re: Jack Bogle: Follow these 4 Investing Rules

Interesting that Bogle has changed from 60/40 to 50/50. To all those that strictly adhere to Bogle's own investment style (US-only, fixed allocation, etc) just remember this move is what he decided is best for him , That only thing I find notable is that, on my understanding of Bogle's age, this is...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lima, Peru advice
Replies: 23
Views: 1944

Re: Lima, Peru advice

Yes, the Plaza de Armas with the palace and cathedral are good tourist places. Also near the central city are other churches with catacombs, and a museum about the inquisition. The national museum had a few years ago (not sure if still there) a good exhibition on the recent discoveries at the pyrami...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS
Replies: 78
Views: 8939

Re: Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

What do Bogleheads make of this dire warning? That it's a slow news days. This headline was on the front webpage of cnn and the bbc and my local newspaper, so it's probably featured on many news outlets around the world. RBC struck publicity gold by appealing to journalists' love of even disaster p...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.
Replies: 20
Views: 2553

Re: The S&P 500 had a great year for foreign investors.

Indeed, in my and my spouse's Australian superannuation funds the past year domestic stock and bond returns were respectively somewhat below and somewhat above zero, but the world ex Australia stocks were up over 10%. Suppressing returns here, boosting returns there, currency fluctuations can be eve...
by asset_chaos
Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Bear Market Truths"
Replies: 16
Views: 2481

Re: "Ten Bear Market Truths"

Are we in a bear market?
by asset_chaos
Sun Jan 03, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1383

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

I need to be enlightened before I pull the trigger on VISVX. May I suggest that you take your finger off the trigger for a while. From the questions it appears that you may not be certain about what value funds are or what role you can reasonably expect them to play in your portfolio. I caution to ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Jan 02, 2016 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 110
Views: 7983

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

This is what is meant by the old adage that investing is simple but not easy. If you look at different geographic sectors of the stock market and lament having too much of whatever did relatively poorly instead of more of whatever did relatively better, do you apply the same logic to industry sector...
by asset_chaos
Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Simplify a portfolio made with hubris
Replies: 26
Views: 2829

Re: Simplify a portfolio made with hubris

Have you considered that the issue may lie in your understanding of your own true risk tolerance? As a 7% drop in portfolio value is upsetting, instead of focusing on what particular segments of the stock markets you hold, perhaps it's just that you have too much in stocks to begin with. Is an 85:15...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 14, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random walks and momentum
Replies: 20
Views: 1521

Re: Random walks and momentum

There is more than one kind of random walk. Simple example, say you have a variable that can increase or decrease. You flip a coin; heads the variable continues the same direction of change it had before, either up or down; tails the variable reverses direction. If the coin is fair, you get a standa...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 14, 2015 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Constructing a Global Capital Market-Weighted Asset Allocation ?
Replies: 15
Views: 1053

Re: Constructing a Global Capital Market-Weighted Asset Allocation ?

total bond 25% total international bond 25% emerging market bond 10% total world stock index 40% would be reasonably close in round numbers to the current global capital markets. By the way, if you google "size of global capital markets" reasonable estimates for size of stock and bond mark...
by asset_chaos
Sat Nov 07, 2015 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Australia] 3 or 4 portfolio theory
Replies: 5
Views: 568

Re: [Australia] 3 or 4 portfolio theory

Your choices are perfectly reasonable. In the allocation percentages, remember to account for the investments you have in super. You want those percentages of asset allocations to reflect all of your assets, both inside and outside super. You can put all your bonds in super. Personally I like to kee...
by asset_chaos
Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We often hear from gurus that active wins in inefficient markets like EM
Replies: 18
Views: 1735

Re: We often hear from gurus that active wins in inefficient markets like EM

I recall Bill Bernstein taking on this trope as far back as his first book. From memory the argument was a simple one of costs. EM has much higher trading costs---indeed wouldn't high trading costs and low liquidity be a sign of a potentially inefficient market?---and managers generally charge more,...
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: John Bogle's 5 Rules
Replies: 9
Views: 1830

Re: Allan Roth: John Bogle's 5 Rules

The 5 rules seem to have some built in redundant safeguards. It looks like there are really only 3 independent rules, and they are great ones, as Bogle has demonstrated for us over a lifetime: 1. Maximize diversification. 2. Minimize costs. 3. Hold forever.
by asset_chaos
Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"
Replies: 135
Views: 14225

Re: "Bogle: Tough Decade Ahead for Equity Investors"

Anyone else having trouble? When I click on the link, either at M* or above, I get 403 Forbidden.
by asset_chaos
Mon Oct 19, 2015 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex-US percentage for NON-US persons?
Replies: 5
Views: 444

Re: Ex-US percentage for NON-US persons?

For stocks I think the rational approach for all investors is to start with the global cap-weighted stock market index by default. Then ask, are there specific tax or cost reasons to overweight my home market, define home however you like. Then delve into your irrational side. The bias to the famili...
by asset_chaos
Sun Oct 11, 2015 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: international lazy portfolio
Replies: 6
Views: 577

Re: international lazy portfolio

If you want a simple portfolio that is not particularly "US-centric", then why not use the total global stock market, which may be available in your brokerage as the etf VT or similar? It's simpler than what you propose, and it covers all regions including the Pacific. If you're a US perso...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 30, 2015 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: You can time the market...
Replies: 47
Views: 4524

Re: You can time the market...

"You can time the market..."

Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will the market reward you when you do time it?

With apologies to Hotspur and Shakespeare and all the literary canon
by asset_chaos
Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harvard Endowment's New Approach
Replies: 4
Views: 1406

Re: Harvard Endowment's New Approach

"[Harvard's] five factors include world equities, US Treasuries, high yield credit, inflation and currency." Although Harvard clearly doesn't do this, a naive and much simpler interpretation of their new approach could be world equities => global stock index fund US Treasures + high yield ...
by asset_chaos
Sat Sep 26, 2015 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REIT/property as a % of total world stock index?
Replies: 4
Views: 385

Re: REIT/property as a % of total world stock index?

If you look at the morningstar.com fund page for vtwsx, under the portfolio tab M* breaks out real estate stocks from general financial services stocks. They claim 3-4%.
by asset_chaos
Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If You Have Savings In Your 20s, You’re Doing Something Wrong [article]
Replies: 148
Views: 12711

Re: If You Have Savings In Your 20s, You’re Doing Something Wrong [article]

Everybody with something to sell has a million reasons why you should spend more now. Saving goes against the zeitgeist. Something comes to mind about the road less traveled, and it having made all the difference, continuing to be better advice for the young.
by asset_chaos
Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VT and BND
Replies: 16
Views: 1913

Re: VT and BND

I'll echo what several others have said in this thread. When you look back after 20 or more years, of all the possible investment combinations you could choose today, most likely something will have done better than a combination of total world stock and total US bond market funds, but most possible...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 09, 2015 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan Market Up 7.71% Today
Replies: 21
Views: 2886

Re: Japan Market Up 7.71% Today

No. Who made excessive profits over the buy-and-hold investor on these gyrations---and can whoever did this continue to excessively profit consistently?
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Aussie investor here - how is my allocation?
Replies: 12
Views: 956

Re: Aussie investor here - how is my allocation?

Your choices are in the realm of reasonable but raise a couple of questions. I'm unclear as to why, as an Australian, you'd want to particularly overweight the US relative to its global market weight. If it were me, I'd look to invest in the global stock market index with a small overweight to Austr...
by asset_chaos
Wed Sep 02, 2015 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any bad experiences with Online banking?
Replies: 37
Views: 3339

Re: Any bad experiences with Online banking?

I've used 3 online banks and been happy with all of them. I moved to a new online bank twice only because there was a catastrophic failure at the old bank. After 5 or so years the first one was bought out by a traditional, mid-tier bank and immediately raised prices tremendously. I left for online b...
by asset_chaos
Sun Aug 30, 2015 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Options with STEM and LSA
Replies: 30
Views: 1887

Re: Career Options with STEM and LSA

There's science in both categories, so the waters are muddied from the outset. I've been hearing for over 30 years about the looming STEM shortage. But I don't see anything in the salary data for engineers, much less scientists and mathematicians, suggesting a shortage. Sure, STEM has low unemployme...
by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 29, 2015 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?
Replies: 29
Views: 3396

Re: Dipping into the emergency fund for rebalancing purposes during market downturns?

You'll have to suit yourself and good luck. But my personal data points are that the only times that have made me tap my emergency fund were completely uncorrelated with the stock market. And I think that's an inescapable feature of an emergency. So personally I would never use my emergency fund for...
by asset_chaos
Tue Aug 25, 2015 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?
Replies: 29
Views: 4472

Re: Anyone with experience taking a voluntary (pre-retirement) break from employment?

I wasn't burnt out with my job, but in my mid-30s for reasons having to do with my marriage I took a year's leave without pay from my job. My employer initially balked. But I was valued by that employer then, so when I made it clear that if they stood in the way of my marriage, I would quit and neve...
by asset_chaos
Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Objectionable Manufacturing Country
Replies: 13
Views: 966

Re: Objectionable Manufacturing Country

Yep, maintaining the courage of one's convictions is harder when there is actual inconvenience involved. It would seem to boil down to, how strongly do you feel about your objections? Personally I have preferences, but none that are so strong that they would absolutely preclude me from any purchase....
by asset_chaos
Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 1215

Re: Any thoughts on Global Min Volatility Fund?

I haven't investigated in depth this particular fund, but my general opinion on minimum volatility stock funds is that if I want somewhat less risk in my portfolio, I believe I'd do better to increase my bond allocation by 5 percentage points than to try to make my stocks less risky somehow. I'd fee...
by asset_chaos
Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?
Replies: 92
Views: 8086

Re: Does the Three Fund Portfolio need a roboadviser?

I would appreciate comments by those who are familiar with "roboadvisors." Do you think they are worth their cost for The Three Fund Portfolio investors? I'm not directly familiar with roboadvisors, but I, nonetheless, have an opinion. If an investor is both sufficiently interested and ap...
by asset_chaos
Wed Aug 05, 2015 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Mimic Yale endowment fund?
Replies: 8
Views: 1303

Re: Mimic Yale endowment fund?

Swensen's well-diversified, equity-oriented portfolio includes the following asset classes. The percentages are the recommended policy targets: 1.Domestic Equities (30%) 2.Foreign developed equities (15%) 3.Emerging market equities (5%) 4.Real estate (20%) 5.U.S. Treasury bonds (15%) 6.U.S. Treasur...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 100
Views: 11208

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

It seems like there are a lot of unknown risks with international investing. When I invest in the US, I feel like I know what I'm getting myself into. I understand our culture, our government, our politics, our laws, our history, our level of corruption, our level of debt, etc. All the other countr...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 100
Views: 11208

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

But on this question of should everyone invest solely in their domestic market, he is obviously wrong. Invest in only your domestic market, not even close. I don't believe Mr. Bogle has ever said what you're suggesting here. His advice about the topic brought up is for the average US investor. Not ...
by asset_chaos
Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?
Replies: 100
Views: 11208

Re: Could John Bogle Be Right About International Stock?

However, is there a possibility that John Bogle just might be right, that you don't need them and you will do just fine investing strictly in the United States? Bogle is a great man who has made every investor everywhere better off with his creation of Vanguard and bringing index funds to the world...
by asset_chaos
Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salary Question [Renegotiating from USD to AUD]
Replies: 7
Views: 767

Re: Salary Question [Renegotiating from USD to AUD]

Are you both being paid in AU$? If I'm living in a foreign country, I would like at least one income stream in that country's currency to pay living expenses without having to worry about FX effects. The AU-US$ relation can be quite volitile. But it certainly seems fair to bring up the concern at yo...
by asset_chaos
Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reallocation advice - Australian investor
Replies: 3
Views: 340

Re: Reallocation advice - Australian investor

You could simplify and put everything into one of Vanguard's Australia LifeStrategy funds ( http://www.vanguard.com.au ). The 70/30 equity/bonds fund is closest to your current allocation. Otherwise, there is no obvious right answer to how much to invest in Australian versus non-Australian equities....

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