Search found 283 matches

by aj76er
Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11676

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Inflation-indexed bonds and cash should form the safe part of your non-risk portfolio. I believe this is what Sharpe advocates. So you could do something like: 75% WBS 25% Inflation indexed bonds Furthermore, you could use Sharpe's adaptive asset allocation ideas to get more of a 75/25 default stoc...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11676

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

As a result, there's no way that I would adopt Sharpe's World Stock-Bond Portfolio . I simply won't invest 97% of my money abroad. Another way to look at this is that 75% of your money is invested in just 3% of the global economic output. What industries and/or sectors are going to drive the majori...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 15, 2017 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio
Replies: 70
Views: 11676

Re: Bill Sharpe's preferred portfolio

Here's a link to a spreadsheet that helps with rebalancing of Sharpe's World Bond/Stock (WBS) portfolio. It uses the same formulas from the Matlab program he uses in RISMAT-7. In addition, it uses googlefinance() function to auto-lookup the adj. closing prices of the funds. https://www.bogleheads.or...
by aj76er
Tue Aug 15, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Core position in Fidelity
Replies: 24
Views: 2128

Re: Core position in Fidelity

My brokerage was originally FCASH, but I recently switched it to FZFXX because short-term rates are rising. For me, the sweep account is only where I temporarily pool money to make large-ish ETF purchases a few times a year. It's not really long term storage. For longer term, you could consider a sh...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1119

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

This portfolio idea, with the more complete international fund, looks a lot like the Vanguard Target funds and LifeStrategy funds. yes, similar. however, I believe the TargetDate and LifeStrategy funds are fixed percentages (with TargetDate having a glide path). Sharpe's WBS portfolio is designed t...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1119

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

Fclevz wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 3:43 pm
These numbers look to be the median market cap numbers for the stocks making up the index, rather than the total market cap of the entire index.

Cheers,
Fred
Yep, that explains the discrepancy. Too bad, would have been an easy place to grab the data :)
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1119

Re: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

^ Thanks for checking the market cap numbers. Another possible source of these could be from the vanguard website thru the fund's "Portfolio & Management" page. On the VFWAX page, it lists $30.9 billion for the "FTSE All-World ex US Index" as of 06/30/2017 On the VTIAX page, it lists $24.0 billion f...
by aj76er
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5515

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

In other words, the real problem Sharpe is trying to avoid, is for a passive investor to be putting excessive pressure on market prices and get taken advantage of, in the process. I don't think Sharpe is denying the basic mechanics of supply and demand, rather he is simply just saying that with the...
by aj76er
Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"
Replies: 45
Views: 5515

Re: "Bonds: Ballast for your portfolio"

When you depart from the market portfolio, you're no longer investing, you're betting. Some bets can be necessary, but need to be acknowledged as such. In my view, BH forum has become a veritable wild west of betting, and newcomers--novice investors--may not understand that it's not passive investi...
by aj76er
Sun Aug 13, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 14
Views: 1119

Spreadsheet for Tracking the Global Market Portfolio

Hi All, I've been reading William Sharpe's RISMAT series on what he calls the WBS (World Bond-Stock) Portfolio. It consists of the following 4 Vanguard funds held at market proportions: VBTLX: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares VTABX: Vanguard Total International Bond Index Admiral...
by aj76er
Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: AA, IPS. Tinkering trap?
Replies: 11
Views: 857

Re: AA, IPS. Tinkering trap?

I have a rule in my IPS that states no change can be made unless a period of 3months has passed. More often than not, I disregard a proposed change before the 3months :). Having said that, the stock/bond ratio is the biggest decision for an AA and it's perfectly okay to change it a few times before ...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 90
Views: 5997

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I've never understood the logic of cash as an asset category within an investment portfolio. If you need to hold onto some cash for liquidity or emergency uses, you take it out of your investment portfolio and it becomes part of your checking account or emergency fund. For me that's part of the def...
by aj76er
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 90
Views: 5997

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

Checking, CD's, IBonds = ~8% Without counting IBonds ~= 5% Without counting CD's, IBonds ~= 0% (just a few months in checking) In my taxable account, I typically make quarterly purchases with cash builtup in mmf. In my tax sheltered accounts I'm always fully invested. Currently, I let my cash positi...
by aj76er
Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Your "at peace" moments.
Replies: 98
Views: 11113

Re: Your "at peace" moments.

Playing my guitar and just letting my fingers wander. It feels like a form of meditation.
by aj76er
Tue Aug 01, 2017 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]
Replies: 63
Views: 4300

Re: [Fidelity Beats Vanguard on Total Expenses for 14 Index Mutual Funds]

Once one gets down to "a few basis points" things like securities lending (SL) policies start to matter. As this article points out, vanguard gives 100% of SL income to its funds. Most others only do the legal minimum of 50%. That's a few basis points right there. m It also rubs me the wr...
by aj76er
Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equal Parts Small, Mid, Large Cap Indexes
Replies: 56
Views: 3027

Re: Equal Parts Small, Mid, Large Cap Indexes

because indexing and quasi-indexing have become so popular in stocks it is becoming more susceptible in the USA (and global bond market) to manipulation by control players who can skim from these funds via. float manipulation. I've seen you mention this before but I'm not sure what it means. Could ...
by aj76er
Fri Jul 28, 2017 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"
Replies: 42
Views: 5023

Re: NYT Carl Richards "You’re No Coward if You’re Keeping Some Money Out of Stocks"

A cash position used to be a standard,recommended part of one's portfolio (Nisiprius has posted links to historic references to this in the past; I'll see if I can locate them later and add as an edit) Cash does not necessarily mean a savings account earning .16%. Tyler at Portfolio Charts makes a ...
by aj76er
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation at Fidelity
Replies: 14
Views: 1213

Re: Bond allocation at Fidelity

From Fidelity's website, 5yr CD @ 2.3% vs 5yr AA corp @ 2.49% 10yr CD @ 2.8% vs 10yr AA corp @ 3.22% And a AAA rated 10yr corp is @ 2.86% Using CD's as a substitute for Treasuries is perfectly fine. Just be aware of the risks you take with corporate bonds. Look to see how LQD performed in 2008 and m...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 27, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation at Fidelity
Replies: 14
Views: 1213

Re: Bond allocation at Fidelity

How about longer duration CD ladder (eg 5yr) with a slice of Treasuries for rebalancing? Could use something like IEF for Treasuries. I want to stick with a 2 year ladder for now. The yield curve is too flat for my liking to take the extra interest rate risk of the additional 3 years. However, I li...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 31619

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I see two dominant schools of thought on this forum around international investing: 1. Do you own intl mostly as a hedge against single country risk? 2. Do you own intl mostly as a way of capturing the world's economic growth? If it's #1, then you probably overweight domestic If it's #2, then you pr...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's your personal savings rate?
Replies: 135
Views: 11343

Re: What's your personal savings rate?

Just did a back of the envelope. I estimate ~42% for this year in the following priority:

401k Max
HSA max
Roth backdoor max
IBonds max
Taxable brokerage
by aj76er
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond allocation at Fidelity
Replies: 14
Views: 1213

Re: Bond allocation at Fidelity

How about longer duration CD ladder (eg 5yr) with a slice of Treasuries for rebalancing? Could use something like IEF for Treasuries.
by aj76er
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21163

Re: Living Off Dividends

then 100% stocks is perfectly reasonable. Yes, it has a high probability of succeeding. But, historically, it has not been the efficient frontier. Holding 20% of bonds (at least based on historical precedent) seems like cheap insurance to me. It decreases stddev much more than returns (again, histo...
by aj76er
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21163

Re: Living Off Dividends

then 100% stocks is perfectly reasonable. Yes, it has a high probability of succeeding. But, historically, it has not been the efficient frontier. Holding 20% of bonds (at least based on historical precedent) seems like cheap insurance to me. It decreases stddev much more than returns (again, histo...
by aj76er
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living Off Dividends
Replies: 285
Views: 21163

Re: Living Off Dividends

Why 100% Stocks? If the volatility doesn't bother you, it would be better to do 80/20 or 70/30 along with your 3yrs in cash. Interest from Total Bond Market will compliment the dividends you get from the stock market. You don't get "interest growth" on bond fund shares like the "divid...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5441

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

I'll leave this by saying that you should thoroughly investigate the data to back up your claim of a premium for dividend-paying stocks. What you may be seeing is a hidden "value" effect, which can better be explained by factor-style theory rather than just dividends I have no problem agr...
by aj76er
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity interest rates
Replies: 20
Views: 2160

Re: Fidelity interest rates

In my cash management account I use SPRXX -- Fidelity Money Market. The current yield is 0.96%. They liquidate it at the end of each day to reconcile debits in the account. Isn't the FDIC-insured deposit sweep account your core position for the cash account? How do you get an automatic draw from SP...
by aj76er
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5441

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

Don't want to start an argument, but lots of what you wrote seems like speculation and predictions of the future. I'll just say that there has been no historical premium for holding dividend-paying stocks over the long term. You are trading off earnings growth for more dividends, which after taxes,...
by aj76er
Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5441

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

Yes, I believe you are describing the characteristics of a total stock market fund (e.g. VTSAX) coupled with "sequence of returns risk" that can occur early in a long withdrawal phase from a portfolio that is heavily invested in such an asset. Holding a significant amount of bonds yieldin...
by aj76er
Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5441

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

If you want to see the difference take an asset yielding $1 growing 5% per year whose value is randomly either 10x or 40x its yield every year. Whether you are accumulating or income oriented that's a great asset. The only time that asset is a problem is right before the switch from accumulating to...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FSITX vs FIBIX for bonds? [Spartan Inter. Term Treasury vs. US Bond]
Replies: 15
Views: 1513

Re: FSITX vs FIBIX for bonds? [Spartan Inter. Term Treasury vs. US Bond]

As recommended in the BH 3 fund portfolio I use FSITX how do you interpret or explain this graph? http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee157/Renny202/Misc/chart_zps0bqdnebh.jpg I think FSITX experienced some tracking error during the 2008 market crash. If you change the dates to, say, 2010-present do...
by aj76er
Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?
Replies: 80
Views: 5441

Re: Thoughts on individual dividend investing?

See the below thread which has an excellent analysis by forum member #Cruncher proving that there is no mathematical advantage to dividend focused investing. Also posted is historical performance data that further backs up the math.

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=222643
by aj76er
Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluating Bond ETF's - BND vs AGG
Replies: 9
Views: 1000

Re: Evaluating Bond ETF's - BND vs AGG

Since BND holds the market, and if GNMA's are so horrible in a rising rate env, it seems market participants may hold less of them under these situations. If that happens, BND would naturally have a smaller percentage of them which would lessen their impact. Furthermore, don't GNMA's have higher int...
by aj76er
Thu Jul 06, 2017 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks and Bonds both declining.
Replies: 60
Views: 5385

Re: Stocks and Bonds both declining.

You may look into CPI adjusted bonds, such as TIPS and IBonds.
by aj76er
Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds or TIPS?
Replies: 46
Views: 3730

Re: Bonds or TIPS?

The past performance of VIPSX trails that of VBTLX in the time frames YTD, 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10 year. I write this just to dispel the myth that TIPS are safer than a Total US Bond Market index fund. (underline added) You're right, livesoft, that the Vanguard broad TIPS fund (VIPSX) has pe...
by aj76er
Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Those who max 401k
Replies: 55
Views: 6846

Re: Those who max 401k

At the beginning of the year, I take my approx gross salary, divide into 18k (or whatever the max allowed is for the year), round to a whole %, and then set that as my % contribution (for every paycheck). Due to bonuses and raises (that typically occur during the year, but are not guaranteed), I usu...
by aj76er
Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed
Replies: 19
Views: 1664

Re: Ally CD - No Penalty CD Help/Advice Needed

I think everything you've mentioned is correct.

I recently opened two of these 11mo CD's (25k each) and have been very satisfied.

If you search the forum, there was a recent thread about this CD with a lot of good info. The rate was recently 1.35% and recently bumped up to 1.5%
by aj76er
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tips on Bond investment in fidelity
Replies: 8
Views: 692

Re: Tips on Bond investment in fidelity

vteb would be okay as a buy-and-hold fund. It is the Vanguard equivalent of MUB
by aj76er
Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40
Replies: 59
Views: 12980

Re: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40

This is a very motivating thread, can people in tech sales tell me how do you get into that kinda job? I have had a late start in my career and right now looks like the only way to have that kinda portfolio is by having a high paying job, which will allow you to have a substantial savings each year...
by aj76er
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40
Replies: 59
Views: 12980

Re: Tracking progress to $1M portfolio and no mortgage by 40

This is a very motivating thread, can people in tech sales tell me how do you get into that kinda job? I have had a late start in my career and right now looks like the only way to have that kinda portfolio is by having a high paying job, which will allow you to have a substantial savings each year...
by aj76er
Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 86
Views: 6865

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

I have an SCV tilt in my 401k. The SCV fund is used as a valuey completion index to an S&P 500 fund. As I've increased bond holdings in the 401k and stock holdings in taxable, the SCV tilt has dwindled to only 3% of my portfolio. I only continue to hold because of inertia . I also tilt equities ...
by aj76er
Fri Jun 16, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 16978

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: I opened two @$25K each this week.

Kevin


I just did this as well. Thanks for sharing!
by aj76er
Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 139
Views: 16978

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

White Coat Investor wrote:I've spent a lot of time thinking about this and was way too slow to move to savings accounts 8 years ago so I was Johnny on the spot moving back this Spring.


Are you saying that you have already moved from Savings Account (e.g. Ally) to VMMXX for cash?
by aj76er
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Changing to include Emergency Fund as part of asset allocation - best way to do this?
Replies: 23
Views: 1374

Re: Changing to include Emergency Fund as part of asset allocation - best way to do this?

I like having a cash allocation as part of the portfolio. A balanced portfolio might look like: 10% cash 30% bonds 60% stocks An aggressive portfolio might look like: 5% cash 20% bonds 75% stocks Either adding to or withdrawing from the portfolio just triggers a normal rebalancing event. You don't h...
by aj76er
Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone still buying I-Bonds these days?
Replies: 16
Views: 2197

Re: Anyone still buying I-Bonds these days?

I'm waiting until later in the year to see if the fixed rate in increases.
by aj76er
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing cash reserve
Replies: 16
Views: 1906

Re: Investing cash reserve

VCSH - short term investment grade

It's generally pretty stable, but there is some risk there. Current yield is well over 2%
by aj76er
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Financially independent and then market crashes?
Replies: 54
Views: 6199

Re: Financially independent and then market crashes?

If you insist on 30-35X expenses or a 2.5% SWD no one would be able to retire early. Cutting expenses drastically can do it. 2.5% of 1mil is 25k/yr. I think I remember the MMM budget being pretty close to that. Owning your home outright in a LCOL area goes a long way toward reducing your annual spe...
by aj76er
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 138
Views: 7800

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio?

To the advocates of the 100% stock portfolio: I usually only hear the argument against a lower allocation. But why do you stop there? You can go beyond by leveraging your investment. So, what makes 100% not only better than 80% but also better than 120%? There is extra cost to borrowing on margin; ...
by aj76er
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ex-dividend
Replies: 17
Views: 1403

Re: Ex-dividend

Also, in all this discussion, I havent seen any mention of the advantage of buying in at the post dividend share price reduction, acquiring more shares for the investment dollar.. Does that help skew the equation at all in favor of waiting? You can view the thread on the effect of price reduction d...
by aj76er
Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ex-dividend
Replies: 17
Views: 1403

Re: Ex-dividend

As I mentioned in another recent post on the exact same question, the OP should IMO buy today--9 trading days is too long to sit in cash to avoid a ~0.5% qualified dividend. If you pay 15% Federal and 5% state on your qualified dividends, that's a cost of 0.10%. If US stocks are expected to return ...