Search found 51 matches

by aegis965
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 95
Views: 3685

Re: The Quest for Perfection

Thesaints wrote:
raven15 wrote:This is the perfect portfolio:
...


"perfect" for whom ?

for those who hold the same view.
by aegis965
Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Continue stock picking or invest in index funds
Replies: 12
Views: 1084

Re: Continue stock picking or invest in index funds

Where's your alpha coming from? If you don't know, I suggest you consider indexing.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 95
Views: 3685

Re: The Quest for Perfection

raven15 wrote:Until you show something that backtests better than that you are not perfect.

Here you go.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 17
Views: 1093

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

Thesaints wrote:Mmmh... then why is Vanguard Minimum Volatility Fund currency-hedged ?

Beats me. Because hedging reduces volatility in the short term? There were a debate on this over at Monevator when the UCITS version came out.

BTW the quote from Swensen has been deleted due to violation of fair use policy.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3120

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I think passive investing by definition means holding the global market portfolio (every investable asset in its market weight and never rebalance). Any deviations from that means you are making an active decision. However, it is practically impossible to hold the GMT, so, concessions have to be mad...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with International Fund Selection
Replies: 12
Views: 736

Re: Help with International Fund Selection

Please look at the figures of the funds' r2. The "active" fund is highly correlated with its benchmark, literally as correlated as the passive fund with its respective benchmark. It's a closet index fund. It will behave much like its benchmark. So I won't worry too much about it being &qu...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with International Fund Selection
Replies: 12
Views: 736

Re: Help with International Fund Selection

Please look at the figures of the funds' r2. The "active" fund is highly correlated with its benchmark, literally as correlated as the passive fund with its respective benchmark. It's a closet index fund. It will behave much like its benchmark. So I won't worry too much about it being &quo...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3120

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Now, I know past performance doesn't predict future performance, but why would we assume the opposite, that international stocks would overperform US stocks at any time the future. On what basis would we assume that? ? The basis is in the real world performance, as seen here: https://www.fidelity.c...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3120

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

arguments that require you to believe past performance is a key indicator of future results. Ironically, this is what I think US only people fall for. If US had experienced a 30-year bear market, I think it is unlikely that many people would have still recommended people to only invest in the US. I...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does this portfolio suck? [Slovakia - EU]
Replies: 12
Views: 864

Re: Does this portfolio suck? [Slovakia - EU]

I don't think the UK/Taiwan tax treaty actually has any impact here (in which case, neither would the UK/Slovakia one). The UK does not tax dividends paid by LSE stocks to any non-UK residents -- whether or not they are in a country that has a tax treaty with the UK -- and nor does Ireland on Irela...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does this portfolio suck? [Slovakia - EU]
Replies: 12
Views: 864

Re: Does this portfolio suck? [Slovakia - EU]

Bridgeway Omni Small-Cap Value N - BOSVX - 45% (this is actually a mutual fund and I much rather would go for a ETF) Is it possible for an NRA to invest in US mutual funds? I don't know the situation in EU but here in Taiwan we can only buy offshore funds. Also, how and how much will you be taxed i...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 20, 2017 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 96
Views: 3120

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

GaryA505 wrote:Could it just be that US businesses are just "better"? I work in the world-wide aerospace industry, and from my experience this is true.

So you're making investment decisions based on personal experience and conjecture?
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 66
Views: 3594

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

I don't know why you keep referring to VPACX as an SP500 fund. VPACX is an analogy. Japan is a wonderful example of a market where indexing was a disastrous investment strategy. Part of the argument here is that indexing can never be a bad strategy. You are guaranteed to get market return and beat ...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 95
Views: 3685

Re: The Quest for Perfection

I legitimately believe that a portfolio that has a collection of a large variety of small tilts, plus small exposures to a variety of low cost active funds, may be a bit better than a simpler portfolio for those willing to tolerate the complexity. Maybe the proposal is a bit complex, but I don't th...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 95
Views: 3685

Re: The Quest for Perfection

I'll keep thinking and trying to come up with better (simpler?) ideas... but I do think that something like this is generally fairly reasonable. With a very low overall portfolio expense ratio, and with the holdings and strategies being reasonable and fitting together like a nice jigsaw puzzle with...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments
Replies: 27
Views: 2148

Re: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments

I have to agree that this is a darn good portfolio. Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, their robo service, offers similar portfolios without the mumbo jumbo they proposed in the paper to meddle with your portfolio. You can have adjustments according to your risk preferences. See the below picture for fe...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

You know what they say about past performance don't you? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=156573 This is not aimed at you, just an observation. It is always interesting to me that many refuse to acknowledge past performance...............unless they are using it to show how often in...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 19, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments
Replies: 27
Views: 2148

Re: Schwab's Modern Approach to Asset Allocation - Comments

I have to agree that this is a darn good portfolio. Schwab Intelligent Portfolio, their robo service, offers similar portfolios without the mumbo jumbo they proposed in the paper to meddle with your portfolio. You can have adjustments according to your risk preferences. See the below picture for fee...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 95
Views: 3685

Re: The Quest for Perfection

OP, I would argue that a simple 1/n Ivy portfolio is more diversified and immune to tail risk than your proposed portfolio, which, from my point of view, is not "highly diversified" nor tail-risk averse. Here's why I think your portfolio is not diversified: 1. With the current stock portio...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

You know what they say about past performance don't you? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=156573 This is not aimed at you, just an observation. It is always interesting to me that many refuse to acknowledge past performance...............unless they are using it to show how often in...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 18, 2017 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

I follow Bogle's advice about costs - they matter! I invest exclusively in Vanguard funds now for simplicity. If an active fund outperforms the appropriate index fund, I have no problem investing in it. For example, I own Vanguard Primecap Core Fund because it has outperformed Vanguard's large cap ...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 17, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

High expenses will never outperform in the long run, active share or not. Please define "in the long run." Also, if you mean active as a whole will not outperform I agree, but there are certainly some anecdotal evidence of outperformance. Full disclosure: I have no positions in any active...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

Wait wait wait. Backup... beep, beep, beep. Are you advocating active management? :o Just saying if you have to invest in active funds, at least make the money you spend worthwhile, kind of like a cost matters hypothesis for active management. Maybe I should attach disclosure statements to all of m...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 17, 2017 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive
Replies: 21
Views: 2416

Re: Active Manager Uses Lessons From Vanguard to Resist Passive

One could argue that Total World provides greater diversification since it owns almost 8,000 stocks compared to about 1,300 owned by Global Equity. Global Equity's expense ratio is 0.30% higher than Total World's. With that many holdings it's probably just a closet index fund. If you want broad div...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Worst ETFs You Can Own"
Replies: 38
Views: 2997

Re: "The Worst ETFs You Can Own"

Bogleheads: Ben Carlson has written this article about what can happen when investors try to "beat the market": The Worst ETFs You Can Own Best wishes. Taylor Is the link wrong? In other news, the worst utensils you can own are knives and forks.* *Provided I assume but do not state that y...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 17, 2017 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 101
Views: 8182

Re: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index

We need someone smart like nisiprius to come in here and own this guy. Should I go get a goat or are there other ways to summon him? :P jbolden is either a genius or a lunatic. I am going to sit back and watch this thread play out. Where have all the quants/factor people on this board gone to? I ca...
by aegis965
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 136
Views: 11486

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I'm buying more books to offset the gain. :P Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism is a fascinating read.
by aegis965
Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6489

Re: Why Simple beats complex

The compensation that active market participants receive is the fees they charge for their assets under management, not investment returns. They simply need to keep up appearances by running multiple strategies simultaneously, thereby ensuring they will always have a few products that happen to be ...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6489

Re: Why Simple beats complex

The compensation that active market participants receive is the fees they charge for their assets under management, not investment returns. They simply need to keep up appearances by running multiple strategies simultaneously, thereby ensuring they will always have a few products that happen to be ...
by aegis965
Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 6533

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

Buffett's concept of risk is different from folks like us who don't have that long a timeframe and, as many in this thread have pointed out, the behavioral disposition. Here's an excellent article on this issue: Contradicting Warren Buffett: When Volatility is Risk.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6489

Re: Why Simple beats complex

Can we say this? "Empirical evidence suggests that complex strategy does NOT beat the simple strategy consistently over the long term". Long terms could be 20-40 years. Please notice how the above is very similar to active vs indexing paradigm. Is that a true statement, though? I am not s...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6489

Re: Why Simple beats complex

If we are talking on a relative basis of simplicity and complexity, which the above discussions seem to be based on, why shouldn't we just buy into a broad market index and call it a day? It's arguably the simplest Boglehead strategy, isn't it? Why care about the imperfect correlation between stocks...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?
Replies: 24
Views: 3245

Re: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?

I think what every should be worry about is corporate governance issues. When Vanguard, Blackrock and the like become the largest shareholders of every major company, what will happen? I know Bogleheads tend to trust Vanguard, but it's my firm believe that history repeats itself. Power corrupts, and...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Simple beats complex
Replies: 71
Views: 6489

Re: Why Simple beats complex

dwickenh wrote:Since his job encompasses handling large accounts with complex investments, I will give merit to his experience without statistics.

IMO many (if not most) who fit this description will be more than happy to give you a counter-argument lol
by aegis965
Mon Jul 10, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Out of favor" index sector DCA strategy - thoughts?
Replies: 3
Views: 426

Re: "Out of favor" index sector DCA strategy - thoughts?

Short-term momentum (<1 month) certainly worked. That's why most research eliminate the nearest month when calculating (intermediate-term) momentum, which whodidntante mentioned, because it often signals a reversal of the intermediate (<1 year) trend. However, a short look-back period means frequent...
by aegis965
Sun Jul 09, 2017 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?
Replies: 24
Views: 3245

Re: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?

For the active stuff I'm playing in markets far too illiquid for someone $20m much less $20b to play effectively. There are exploitable inefficiencies I can find in securities where the daily volume is $30k. As you move to bigger poker tables the players get better, at the small tables you find gam...
by aegis965
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?
Replies: 60
Views: 7305

Re: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?

Bogleheads are evidence-based investors. Our model is simple but robust: Buy the market, rebalance, stay the course. According to decades of academic research, it has worked in the past, and probably will continue to work. A thing about model that I believe is that you do not change it no matter wha...
by aegis965
Thu May 04, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Index Funds A Farce?
Replies: 28
Views: 3834

Re: Value Index Funds A Farse?

Here's Wesley Gray's rebuttal to the paper.
TL;DR: No, you don't need to have a pair of human eyes.
by aegis965
Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 68
Views: 5275

Re: Young EU Investor

not sure if I can agree, as most US bogleheads who pick the Total US Stock Market + Total International Stock allocation decide on fixed % allocations in both of them and then rebalance yearly - taking MSCI World instead is basically the same as taking Total US Stock Market + Total International St...
by aegis965
Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 68
Views: 5275

Re: Young EU Investor

1. Would you consider the rebalancing bonus reason enough for slicing your developed world part of stock portfolio? Holding MSCI World only causes you to overweight "recent winners", like US is a bit overweight now with higher P/L than the rest of the world, so choosing a fixed allocation...
by aegis965
Mon Apr 10, 2017 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?
Replies: 58
Views: 5712

Re: Larry-ish Portfolio, But Easier To Implement. Thoughts?

What are options for a Larry Portfolio if, being in Europe, you don't have access to the US Stock Markets? I've been looking for alternatives, but only found substitutes for some of the portfolio components. 15% - IJS alternative: SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted UCITS ETF ISIN IE00BSPLC413, ...
by aegis965
Thu Mar 30, 2017 4:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beginner advice for a Brit in Japan
Replies: 15
Views: 980

Re: Beginner advice for a Brit in Japan

I played around with Morningstar JP for a few minutes and found that their screener (http://www.morningstar.co.jp/FundData/DetailSearch.do) can screen for dividend yield. There's a 分配金利回り tab in the 分配金 section. You can choose the yield in the tab (1.0% and lower, 1.0% and higher, 2.5% and higher, e...
by aegis965
Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Bond ETF to use for a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 2355

Re: What Bond ETF to use for a 3-fund portfolio?

GOVT is a decent one also. Kind of a US treasuries total bond market ETF if you want a good hassle free mix but want to avoid corporates. Second. GOVT does what David Swensen recommends: a treasury portfolio which matches the market characteristics. I also find his allocation of half treasury and h...
by aegis965
Thu Mar 09, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I need small caps?
Replies: 37
Views: 3512

Re: Do I need small caps?

If you want to overweight small cap to get exposure to the size factor, you should consider your investment horizon. Size factor's valuation is pretty high right now:
https://interactive.researchaffiliates. ... -small-cap
by aegis965
Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash
Replies: 129
Views: 18794

Re: Sitting on cash....Waiting for a crash

How about using TSMOM as a downside protection strategy?
http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/2015/08/ ... strategies
by aegis965
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.
Replies: 36
Views: 3010

Re: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.

Professor Robert Shiller's Coursera course on financial markets (https://www.coursera.org/learn/financial-markets) covers many, if not all, of your questions. It's a condensed version of the more meandering Yale open course videos. If you want something even shorter, then University of Geneva's cour...
by aegis965
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please list value funds you currently use
Replies: 62
Views: 5653

Re: Please list value funds you currently use

Developed Value: VVAL (VVAL is roughly 60% US, 40% ex-US developed; 45% LCV, 30% MCV, 25% SCV.)
Emerging Value: PSRM (UCITS version of PXH.)
by aegis965
Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates Latest Research
Replies: 4
Views: 713

Re: Research Affiliates Latest Research

Probably marketing their new dynamic multi-factor indices and ETFs recently filed by PIMCO that are based on these indices .
https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_u ... actor.html
Rebalancing according to value and momentum signals looks pretty interesting, though.

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