Search found 101 matches

by aegis965
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4836

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:58 pm
Zerohedge always seemed pretty sensationalist to me.
understatement of the year lol
by aegis965
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Buffett does like A LOT of special situations, market timing, leveraging, derivatives (LEAPS, warrant, and whatnot,) and has ALWAYS been holding concentrated positions, sometimes betting on a stock with 40% of his portfolio. IMO saying his return can be explained by factors is one thing, saying inve...
by aegis965
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 2061

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

Lauretta wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:57 am
I had briefly seen a paper by Philippe Bouchaud, a very smart French physicist who became a quant, where he used exponential moving averages.
Wow, this guy is doing some interesting stuff. Thanks. I'm reading the tail risk premia paper, very rewarding so far.
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 2061

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

compared to say momentum or moving averages rules which I was told can't really be applied to small caps because they're too volatile By small caps do you mean small caps as an asset class or individual stocks? If it's the former, I don't see how momentum or MA won't work. If it's the latter, adjus...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3192

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3192

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3192

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Random Walker's recent post on downside risk and VRP reminds me of this study, Downside risk and the value anomaly . The study breaks beta into four parts: good and bad upside and downside beta. Here's its conclusion: [Downside] market risk can explain systematic differences in returns on value and ...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Anyway, the "deep value" stocks cited as being better than the "glamour value" stocks could have either lower debt or higher earnings to have a lower enterprise multiple as more or less the enterprise multiple is (market cap + debt) / earnings.* It's very confusing that the iShares QUALITY Factor E...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

The stock of high quality companies is driven so high that long-term returns are impaired even assuming the high rates of growth and profitability persist. …. Real-world forecasts tend to underestimate the speed at which reversion to the mean in profitability occurs. How do we reconcile this with t...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

All of this stuff about "you didn't see the effect of [factor X] because Vanguard's funds are icky poo" seems like nonsense to me. There is caffeine in all coffee, be it Dunkin' Donuts, Starbucks, or Pele Plantations Single-Estate 100% Kona, and they will all wake you up (or interfere with your sle...
by aegis965
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

However, I think I may be able to value factor invest. Why be interested in this inferior form of investing? My greatest fear as an investor is a secular bear market. The data I"ve seen is consistent with value factor investing being able to mitigate that risk. There is not the slightest bit of sup...
by aegis965
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9054

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

I think there is some confusion on what value factor investing is and is not. Value factor investing is a trading strategy based upon buying stocks the market attributes low multiples to due to in most part to their high leverage and low margins (reflecting a poor competitive position) across a wid...
by aegis965
Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Water
Replies: 29
Views: 2643

Re: Investing In Water

uberational44 wrote:It seems there are many ways to invest:
-Utility companies
-Irrigation companies
-Filtering companies
-Land with water onsite (via REITs, or if you're cash heavy - just buying water-rich land)
How about Impact investing?
by aegis965
Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 5055

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

What I don't understand is why going with the largest and the best is correct. What is correct? If you mean achieving the highest risk adjusted return then it is not correct. If CAPM's unrealistic assumptions don't hold, your cap-weighted proxy for the "market portfolio" ceases to be efficient. The...
by aegis965
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ
Replies: 25
Views: 3925

Re: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ

benign_user wrote:We need active investors so that index funds work.
IIRC Andrew Lo said that passive could still work if there are only 10% active. Guess we'll have to wait a while (and Vanguard has some serious marketing to do) to reach that ratio.
by aegis965
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks safer or more risky?
Replies: 49
Views: 3862

Re: Are value stocks safer or more risky?

I believe that Buffet was effectively using a profitability /quality screen on value stocks before profitability became a recognized factor. I also believe that once account for size, value, and profitability, his apparent ability to add benefit beyond known factor exposure is no different than wou...
by aegis965
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 4897

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Image
(From Baupost's Q2 Letter)
by aegis965
Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it hard to beat the market?
Replies: 45
Views: 3291

Re: Why is it hard to beat the market?

It's easy to beat the market short-term. The long-term is just the aggregate of a series of short-terms - if it was really easy to beat the market in the 'short-term' and you beat it every (or even most) short-term's it would also be easy to beat it in the long-term. ...if holding everything consta...
by aegis965
Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it hard to beat the market?
Replies: 45
Views: 3291

Re: Why is it hard to beat the market?

It's easy to beat the market short-term. http://i.imgur.com/KS7JkgD.jpg But hard to do so in the long term. (Or you'll end up owning the market.) http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Mission-Impossible_Beating-the-Market-Forever-1.png (Portfolios with various CAGR, 1926-2013) * ...
by aegis965
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1107

Factor investing most effective in micro cap

Thought I share this article on factor investing in micro cap: Micro Caps, Factor Spreads, Structural Biases, and the Institutional Imperative . Here's a chart from the article displaying factor spreads being the largest in micro cap: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55535188e4b02a4d730cb3ca/t...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF (VVAL) [UK]
Replies: 13
Views: 962

Re: Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF (VVAL) [UK]

Leidsekade wrote:I'm also not sure about its performance. The high return seems mostly down to the Trump Bump last year, and it's an EU-based fund trading in USD (I'm in the U.K.), so I also think FX is playing a huge part.
You can compare VVAL to its Canadian version VVL.
by aegis965
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 1285

Re: Value Investing

When I read about Buffet, Graham, and Swedroe talking about value, is this more domestic small cap value, or is there any international involved. One of Swedroe's books I read I recall him inferring just as much small cap value Int as Domestic? IIRC from his past posts, Larry's personal portfolio i...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my AA
Replies: 5
Views: 482

Re: Critique my AA

Like this better:
20.00% REIT VNQ
20.00% US Lrg Cap Value VTV
20.00% US Sm Cap Value VBR
20.00% Intl Dividend VIGI
20.00% Emerging Mkts VWO
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing/ Finance podcasts
Replies: 16
Views: 1490

Re: Investing/ Finance podcasts

+1 We Study Billionaires
I also recommend "Masters in Business" and "Invest like the best," two very versatile shows that doesn't focus only on investing/finance, which makes them much more interesting.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Small Value Stocks Top VC Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2484

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Small Value Stocks Top VC Funds

PB works best, and is alive and well, in deep value & micro crap territory, it's a less stringent NCAV basically. Outside that, I think PB has been overgrazed. However, PE and PCF are impure measures of value IMO because they tend to also load on quality. PB doesn't have this issue, it measures only...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sector percentages/tilting?
Replies: 15
Views: 894

Re: Sector percentages/tilting?

When I looked into these two sector I noticed I'm under the recomended % for Info Tech and Heath Care. Total world is slightly under and so is VBR and VSS. My question is does this matter? Is this just the effect of adding a small and value tilt? I'm not sure what Vanguard's recommended percentages...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

The experts know that Jack provides sound investment advice and wisdom. "What Experts Say About Jack Bogle" I'm not seeing any experts saying "Jack is right about US only, and my argument is..." in the link you provided. So I'm not sure what it has to do with our discussion here. Would you care to ...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 25, 2017 1:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Books not to read.
Replies: 155
Views: 12335

Re: Books not to read.

Anything by Cioran... :(
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 3056

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

Inb4 "active investing is a losers game"
Great advice though. I do deep value myself so it's always helpful and educative to read others advice on the topic.
Thanks for sharing.
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Giving Stocks as Gifts
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: Giving Stocks as Gifts

Buying individual stock is a good way to learn how the market works: the basics of stock market, market mechanism of buying/selling, how information reflects on share price, etc. It doesn't have to be an investment, you can use it as a tool for education. IMO this is more helpful than just b&h an in...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum
Replies: 7
Views: 809

Re: Wes Gray on MTUM and discrepancy with Momentum

Interesting article on why MTUM is killing it this year yet the academic version of the Momentum Factor isn't. Being long only rather than long/short is helping this yearbut there is more to it. MTUM doesn’t use the 2-12 momentum measure exclusively, but a mix of metrics developed by MSCI. They loo...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Fascinating thread that reflects the confusion that occurs with complex topics ranging from investment to religion to politics, to name a few. Ultimately, we each have to answer the question of whether advice adheres to the Sane Man Theory. Even the definition of a "Sane Man" comes under scrutiny. ...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Cherry-picking dates and asserting investment conclusions from them is not an honorable Forum practice. https://s17.postimg.org/6bbblojcf/1491581046651.jpg Source: Hartford What conclusions can we draw from the pre-1993 period? Was Mr. Bogle wrong about international investing? Some people look at ...
by aegis965
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Osp62 wrote:Over the long term you can assume that the foreign market will provide a reasonable return in the local currency (just like the US market provides a reasonable return in USD).
What do you mean "reasonable"?

Image
by aegis965
Sun Jul 23, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Here's what Bogle said in a PBS interview : Good markets turn to bad markets, bad markets turn to good markets. So the system is almost rigged against human psychology that says if something has done well in the past, it will do well in the future. That is not true. And it's categorically false. And...
by aegis965
Sun Jul 23, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32979

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Bogle's right! Rejoice!
Imma play Handel's Messiah nonstop for a week to process the bliss.
Seriously though, the article is very even-handed. It says clearly that Bogle's advice is an active bet and also warns the readers of possible biases, which the OP did not mention at all.
by aegis965
Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 3056

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

I believe financial theory will say an investor should be indifferent but in practice I believe investors would prefer the actual return of cash instead of relying on the firm to properly execute their buyback plan for the right reasons. On whether a firm properly execute their buyback plan for the...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 22, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8716

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Bogleheads, this is what our mentor, Jack Bogle, said in a PBS interview : Good markets turn to bad markets, bad markets turn to good markets. So the system is almost rigged against human psychology that says if something has done well in the past, it will do well in the future. That is not true. An...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return
Replies: 282
Views: 15960

Re: Dividend Misunderstandings & Only Spend Return

So yes. Dividends are a value factor and as such enhance returns. Dividend stocks are more stable than non-dividend stocks and thus the share prices are more stable. And even if that weren't true the dividend payout allows for more efficient reinvestment of capital. All of which boost return. And e...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8716

Re: The crowd is always wrong

"If you believe Jack Bogle, here's where you should invest." I'm not here because I 'believe Jack Bogle', I'm here because one particular thing advocated by Jack Bogle (index investing), I have come to be convinced thru reason is a really good idea. That does not mean Jack Bogle becomes a prophet. ...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 22, 2017 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6917

Re: The Quest for Perfection

Benefits: Exposure to undiscovered factors through actively managed holdings * This is just meaningless. Active managers aren't giving you exposure to "undiscovered factors" and that's just babble if someone is suggesting it. Active management is a loser's game regardless of your percent allocation...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6917

Re: The Quest for Perfection

I will be working on some well reasoned responses in the coming days. I did not expect this many objections to the portfolio - it's nearly 2/3rds Vanguard and Fidelity index funds! I can build a mind-boggling, outrageously ill-constructed portfolio using only Vanguard or Fidelity funds in a breeze....
by aegis965
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4119

Re: A Good Investor is Skeptical

I don't see how factor is based on past performance. I believe everything about the robustness and pervasiveness of academic factors has been made very clear in Larry's book, which, I believe, many Bogleheads know about. And Larry himself had stated this again and again in this forum. Yet those who...
by aegis965
Fri Jul 21, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Quest for Perfection
Replies: 120
Views: 6917

Re: The Quest for Perfection

This is the perfect portfolio: ... "perfect" for whom ? For anyone who backtests using Portfolio Charts. Not sure you understood my question. This is the perfect tie, btw. http://www.realmenrealstyle.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/NEcktie-Darkknot-Tie-400.jpg Have you backtested this tie?