Search found 118 matches

by aegis965
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto Index Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2115

Re: Crypto Index Fund

There are already some tokens providing cap-weighted exposure to the crypto market, albeit with obscene fees, 5% enter and 5% exit, for example.
by aegis965
Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 30
Views: 3121

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

Heard Dan Rasmussen talked about leveraged Japanese small value stocks in a podcast last week. He said these companies are cheap because of the risk of bankruptcy. Quant screens and value investors often avoid this kind of companies. But he argued that, in reality, the Japanese government has a tend...
by aegis965
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4896

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

Underperformance equals fad... So if multif-actor models outperform market beta (in theory they should), does passive investing become a fad?
by aegis965
Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dual Momentum Investing
Replies: 228
Views: 43253

Re: Dual Momentum Investing

Diversify your signal.
by aegis965
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?
Replies: 19
Views: 2291

Re: Does this strategy make sense in a falling market?

Buying into negative momentum is unlikely to be a good idea. I don't have the data, but I'm pretty sure it underperformed simple B&H.
by aegis965
Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Buy and Hold strategy
Replies: 7
Views: 962

Re: Debunking Buy and Hold strategy

On the same topic, here is a recent article on trend-following, which, I think, the Zerohedge article is advocating in a roundabout way? An interesting quote from the article: Flip it and make trend following the benchmark and consider buy and hold. Works sometimes, doesn't work other times, but you...
by aegis965
Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7231

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

There is the complaint that the offerings in small value funds are neither small or valuey enough to achieve maximum exposure to the premiums. Just wait for my super value microcap fund. Agree. None of the current offerings are small or valuey enough. And I doubt there ever will be a fund that has ...
by aegis965
Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Father of Portfolio Theory Bets on Rebuilding
Replies: 3
Views: 998

The Father of Portfolio Theory Bets on Rebuilding

https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/the-father-of-portfolio-theory-bets-on-rebuilding-1517439509?mod=hp_highlight_2&__twitter_impression=true Harry Markowitz, the 90-year-old Nobel winner is now betting on six companies that stand to benefit from the efforts to recover from hurricanes. Markowitz p...
by aegis965
Thu Jan 25, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcast suggestions
Replies: 6
Views: 933

Re: Podcast suggestions

Animal Spirits is fun, Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom solid, and Hidden Forces is quite eye-opening though not strictly about investing. Some more common suggestions: Adventures in Finance, Behind the Markets, Capital Allocators, Five Good Questions, Invest Like the Best, Masters in B...
by aegis965
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 95
Views: 7231

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

Somebody should start an "Equity Risk Premium - How Do You View It?" thread.
by aegis965
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post Your Morningstar Box Style
Replies: 88
Views: 5993

Re: Post Your Morningstar Box Style

walletless wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:53 am
aegis965 wrote:
Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:51 am
Image
#FakeNews
:wink:
by aegis965
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 31
Views: 3400

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

I would recommend Damodaran's valuation course on Youtube, and Penman's book Accounting for Value.
by aegis965
Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa
Replies: 28
Views: 3520

Re: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa

Alternatives like managed futures and long volatility.
by aegis965
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 3
Views: 481

Re: Mutual Fund Question

Fidelity has a consumer finance fund but charges 93 basis points. VISA and MasterCard are among the largest holdings.
Global X has a Fintech ETF. Up almost 50% YTD. PayPal is 6% of the portfolio.
by aegis965
Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone hold cash?
Replies: 58
Views: 6863

Re: Does anyone hold cash?

10% of investment portfolio. to me cash is more for solvency and wiggle room than reducing volatility.
by aegis965
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 5519

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

nedsaid wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:58 pm
Zerohedge always seemed pretty sensationalist to me.
understatement of the year lol
by aegis965
Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Buffett does like A LOT of special situations, market timing, leveraging, derivatives (LEAPS, warrant, and whatnot,) and has ALWAYS been holding concentrated positions, sometimes betting on a stock with 40% of his portfolio. IMO saying his return can be explained by factors is one thing, saying inve...
by aegis965
Wed Sep 13, 2017 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 2660

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

Lauretta wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:57 am
I had briefly seen a paper by Philippe Bouchaud, a very smart French physicist who became a quant, where he used exponential moving averages.
Wow, this guy is doing some interesting stuff. Thanks. I'm reading the tail risk premia paper, very rewarding so far.
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator
Replies: 24
Views: 2660

Re: Market timing using Gold-Lumber indicator

compared to say momentum or moving averages rules which I was told can't really be applied to small caps because they're too volatile By small caps do you mean small caps as an asset class or individual stocks? If it's the former, I don't see how momentum or MA won't work. If it's the latter, adjus...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4055

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4055

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ownership of "small cap value" stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 4055

Re: ownership of "small cap value" stocks

Anyhow, it may be meaningless data and I'm certainly no expert but it seems like from a very simple observation of the ownership of these small/value companies that most of the money invested in them is from investors chasing the factor-premium and this seems like it would not only eat up any facto...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4554

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Random Walker's recent post on downside risk and VRP reminds me of this study, Downside risk and the value anomaly . The study breaks beta into four parts: good and bad upside and downside beta. Here's its conclusion: [Downside] market risk can explain systematic differences in returns on value and ...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4554

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by aegis965
Mon Sep 11, 2017 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4554

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4554

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Anyway, the "deep value" stocks cited as being better than the "glamour value" stocks could have either lower debt or higher earnings to have a lower enterprise multiple as more or less the enterprise multiple is (market cap + debt) / earnings.* It's very confusing that the iShares QUALITY Factor E...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 4554

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

The stock of high quality companies is driven so high that long-term returns are impaired even assuming the high rates of growth and profitability persist. …. Real-world forecasts tend to underestimate the speed at which reversion to the mean in profitability occurs. How do we reconcile this with t...
by aegis965
Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

All of this stuff about "you didn't see the effect of [factor X] because Vanguard's funds are icky poo" seems like nonsense to me. There is caffeine in all coffee, be it Dunkin' Donuts, Starbucks, or Pele Plantations Single-Estate 100% Kona, and they will all wake you up (or interfere with your sle...
by aegis965
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

However, I think I may be able to value factor invest. Why be interested in this inferior form of investing? My greatest fear as an investor is a secular bear market. The data I"ve seen is consistent with value factor investing being able to mitigate that risk. There is not the slightest bit of sup...
by aegis965
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 11167

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

I think there is some confusion on what value factor investing is and is not. Value factor investing is a trading strategy based upon buying stocks the market attributes low multiples to due to in most part to their high leverage and low margins (reflecting a poor competitive position) across a wid...
by aegis965
Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing In Water
Replies: 29
Views: 3252

Re: Investing In Water

uberational44 wrote:It seems there are many ways to invest:
-Utility companies
-Irrigation companies
-Filtering companies
-Land with water onsite (via REITs, or if you're cash heavy - just buying water-rich land)
How about Impact investing?
by aegis965
Sun Aug 06, 2017 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: trying to understand total market and value investing
Replies: 77
Views: 6312

Re: trying to understand total market and value investing

What I don't understand is why going with the largest and the best is correct. What is correct? If you mean achieving the highest risk adjusted return then it is not correct. If CAPM's unrealistic assumptions don't hold, your cap-weighted proxy for the "market portfolio" ceases to be efficient. The...
by aegis965
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ
Replies: 25
Views: 4355

Re: Why Do Stocks Keep Hitting Records? msn/WSJ

benign_user wrote:We need active investors so that index funds work.
IIRC Andrew Lo said that passive could still work if there are only 10% active. Guess we'll have to wait a while (and Vanguard has some serious marketing to do) to reach that ratio.
by aegis965
Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks safer or more risky?
Replies: 49
Views: 4433

Re: Are value stocks safer or more risky?

I believe that Buffet was effectively using a profitability /quality screen on value stocks before profitability became a recognized factor. I also believe that once account for size, value, and profitability, his apparent ability to add benefit beyond known factor exposure is no different than wou...
by aegis965
Wed Aug 02, 2017 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy
Replies: 56
Views: 6003

Re: Swedroe: Volatility As A Strategy

Image
(From Baupost's Q2 Letter)
by aegis965
Tue Aug 01, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it hard to beat the market?
Replies: 45
Views: 4017

Re: Why is it hard to beat the market?

It's easy to beat the market short-term. The long-term is just the aggregate of a series of short-terms - if it was really easy to beat the market in the 'short-term' and you beat it every (or even most) short-term's it would also be easy to beat it in the long-term. ...if holding everything consta...
by aegis965
Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it hard to beat the market?
Replies: 45
Views: 4017

Re: Why is it hard to beat the market?

It's easy to beat the market short-term. http://i.imgur.com/KS7JkgD.jpg But hard to do so in the long term. (Or you'll end up owning the market.) http://blog.alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Mission-Impossible_Beating-the-Market-Forever-1.png (Portfolios with various CAGR, 1926-2013) * ...
by aegis965
Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing most effective in micro cap
Replies: 8
Views: 1360

Factor investing most effective in micro cap

Thought I share this article on factor investing in micro cap: Micro Caps, Factor Spreads, Structural Biases, and the Institutional Imperative . Here's a chart from the article displaying factor spreads being the largest in micro cap: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/55535188e4b02a4d730cb3ca/t...
by aegis965
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF (VVAL) [UK]
Replies: 13
Views: 1340

Re: Vanguard Global Value Factor UCITS ETF (VVAL) [UK]

Leidsekade wrote:I'm also not sure about its performance. The high return seems mostly down to the Trump Bump last year, and it's an EU-based fund trading in USD (I'm in the U.K.), so I also think FX is playing a huge part.
You can compare VVAL to its Canadian version VVL.
by aegis965
Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value Investing
Replies: 20
Views: 1686

Re: Value Investing

When I read about Buffet, Graham, and Swedroe talking about value, is this more domestic small cap value, or is there any international involved. One of Swedroe's books I read I recall him inferring just as much small cap value Int as Domestic? IIRC from his past posts, Larry's personal portfolio i...
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my AA
Replies: 5
Views: 617

Re: Critique my AA

Like this better:
20.00% REIT VNQ
20.00% US Lrg Cap Value VTV
20.00% US Sm Cap Value VBR
20.00% Intl Dividend VIGI
20.00% Emerging Mkts VWO
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing/ Finance podcasts
Replies: 16
Views: 1761

Re: Investing/ Finance podcasts

+1 We Study Billionaires
I also recommend "Masters in Business" and "Invest like the best," two very versatile shows that doesn't focus only on investing/finance, which makes them much more interesting.
by aegis965
Thu Jul 27, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Small Value Stocks Top VC Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 2723

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Small Value Stocks Top VC Funds

PB works best, and is alive and well, in deep value & micro crap territory, it's a less stringent NCAV basically. Outside that, I think PB has been overgrazed. However, PE and PCF are impure measures of value IMO because they tend to also load on quality. PB doesn't have this issue, it measures only...
by aegis965
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sector percentages/tilting?
Replies: 15
Views: 1068

Re: Sector percentages/tilting?

When I looked into these two sector I noticed I'm under the recomended % for Info Tech and Heath Care. Total world is slightly under and so is VBR and VSS. My question is does this matter? Is this just the effect of adding a small and value tilt? I'm not sure what Vanguard's recommended percentages...
by aegis965
Tue Jul 25, 2017 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 38492

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

The experts know that Jack provides sound investment advice and wisdom. "What Experts Say About Jack Bogle" I'm not seeing any experts saying "Jack is right about US only, and my argument is..." in the link you provided. So I'm not sure what it has to do with our discussion here. Would you care to ...