Search found 265 matches

by adam1712
Sat Nov 26, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your personal rate of inflation?
Replies: 35
Views: 3161

Re: What is your personal rate of inflation?

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that affects everybody with the same currency. If somebody tells me they had 5% "personal inflation" last year and I had 0% "personal inflation", I've yet to meet anybody who would trade me $105 of their dollars for $100 of mine. People's perso...
by adam1712
Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your personal rate of inflation?
Replies: 35
Views: 3161

Re: What is your personal rate of inflation?

Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that affects everybody with the same currency. If somebody tells me they had 5% "personal inflation" last year and I had 0% "personal inflation", I've yet to meet anybody who would trade me $105 of their dollars for $100 of mine. People's person...
by adam1712
Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low Interest Rates: Opportunities Missed?
Replies: 14
Views: 1853

Re: Low Interest Rates: Opportunities Missed?

I've wondered if it would be better to pay cash for a house and invest on margin in stocks instead of having a house mortgage. Seems like it should be possible to make it work. The costs would be better for the bank as there's no issues of insurance, property taxes, foreclosure, etc.
by adam1712
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regrets using ETFs
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Regrets using ETFs

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. I don't believe if you were to put in a buy market order or a sell market order for an ETF at the same time that you would get the same price, but you seem to believe you would. I did just that (OK, not market orders, but limit orders) and posted ab...
by adam1712
Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regrets using ETFs
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Regrets using ETFs

But that's the thing - there is only one market price. It is the price at which a transaction is made (whether between a market maker and a buyer/seller or between a buyer and a seller) and those same spreads exist for every security price that makes up your NAV. If anything, there is only one spre...
by adam1712
Wed Oct 26, 2016 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regrets using ETFs
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Regrets using ETFs

How the NAV is calculated doesn't really affect my bottom line. Maybe it's biased high or low on average but then it's either better when I buy or better when I sell, and it's actually probably very accurate. Of course how NAV is calculated affects your bottom line - NAV is the price you buy and se...
by adam1712
Sun Oct 23, 2016 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regrets using ETFs
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Regrets using ETFs

Saying that "buying/selling a mutual fund is just like a market order" is a straw man. It's a bogus comparison. It's not a bogus comparison at all. Just like a market order, with a mutual fund you take whatever price the market gives you. Just like a market order, you don't have the optio...
by adam1712
Sat Oct 22, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regrets using ETFs
Replies: 65
Views: 5440

Re: Regrets using ETFs

Saying that "buying/selling a mutual fund is just like a market order" is a straw man. It's a bogus comparison. It's not a bogus comparison at all. Just like a market order, with a mutual fund you take whatever price the market gives you. Just like a market order, you don't have the optio...
by adam1712
Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones and my in-laws
Replies: 44
Views: 5159

Re: Edward Jones and my in-laws

I find it best to just talk about finding low-fee funds and avoiding loads. Don't waste time attacking their advisor or company. I have family members that invest with Edward Jones. It's not great but I also know that since my family members ask questions about fees and stuff that I've suggested, th...
by adam1712
Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

Thanks Sheepdog, I always appreciate your posts with real data and personal experiences.
by adam1712
Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

Thanks for the state info, Bob's not my name. It really feels like there's a pretty big range of retirement incomes where the marginal federal rate is going to be 15%. Then I guess it comes down to state taxes, social security, health care, etc. tipping the scale one way or the other. And those diff...
by adam1712
Sun Jul 10, 2016 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

Thoughts? Any retirees that have entirely stayed under the 15% income tax bracket that want to weight in? For a middle class married couple it is pretty easy to do. You can use Tax Caster to see that an over 65 couple can have over $95,000 in income and still be in the 15% federal tax bracket. If t...
by adam1712
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

But it seems like any amount over that it's a wash (federal tax wise) between Roth at 15% and taxed withdrawal at 15%. adam1712, If you have the choice to pay $1,000 now or $1,000 25 years later, what would you choose? And, why would you do that? Unless you are assuming that we will be in deflation...
by adam1712
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Re: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

"Entirely" isn't the right criterion. Also, a person currently in the federal 15% bracket may have a state tax that is a substantial portion of his total tax burden, since most state taxes are flattish. Therefore, state tax treatment should be taken into account. Many states exempt some r...
by adam1712
Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement
Replies: 18
Views: 2518

Chances of <15% marginal income tax in retirement

I likely have about two more years currently in the 15% income tax bracket before I hopefully move up in income. So far, I’ve been doing all Roth 403b and IRA investments and plan to continue all Roth for the next two years. It seems difficult to me to avoid at least some Roth conversions or RMDs th...
by adam1712
Fri Jul 01, 2016 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to reflect paying off mortgage in AA?
Replies: 38
Views: 1895

Re: how to reflect paying off mortgage in AA?

In my mind you need to determine what baseline AA you are comparing your current AA with. Here's my strategy. I use the regular 30 year amortization as my baseline. Basically, I printed out the original payoff schedule when I got a mortgage. Then any amount ahead of the scheduled principal balance I...
by adam1712
Thu May 26, 2016 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As bad as I think it is? [403(b) plan choices]
Replies: 36
Views: 3246

Re: As bad as I think it is?

... So I can try a letter to HR, but is there recourse if this fails? People have been complaining about the options for years now, from what I understand, and I'm still the new guy, without much leverage. But the stakes are also high. This is one of those jobs I will likely have until retirement -...
by adam1712
Sun Apr 24, 2016 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage instead of buying bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 3555

Re: Paying off mortgage instead of buying bonds

Here is how I have done it in the past (I'm currently renting so it now longer applies) to handle the issue of rebalancing when counting mortgage payments as bonds. I count any amount that I'm ahead of the regular amortization schedule as bonds. When stocks do well and and I need to buy more "b...
by adam1712
Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will Chip + Sign CC work in Europe?
Replies: 27
Views: 2450

Re: Will Chip + Sign CC work in Europe?

One piece of advice is I've had success just hitting "cancel" or "enter" when prompted for a PIN at automated kiosks. It didn't always work but one thing to try when there's no person to have you sign a receipt.
by adam1712
Wed Apr 13, 2016 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust advice for a beginner Trustee
Replies: 26
Views: 2446

Re: Trust advice for a beginner Trustee

Just my opinion, but I would not cut back his monthly draw but also not increase it by buying a starter house. I think cutting comes across as overly paternalistic and is just asking for trouble. The best possible combination is if you can get him to buy in to shifting the trust income to starting a...
by adam1712
Sat Apr 02, 2016 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bought a farm for $1
Replies: 18
Views: 3478

Re: Bought a farm for $1

Just a heads up, this may be intentional on your aunt's part to discourage you from selling and trying to keep the farm in the family. So tread carefully if you question your aunt about this. But if it's been held for at least 30 years and most farmland I've seen, you're right that it doesn't matter...
by adam1712
Thu Mar 31, 2016 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!
Replies: 122
Views: 8276

Re: Which Engineering Discipline for the next 20+ years !!!

I don't think there's a hot discipline as much as there's hot areas within disciplines. I think you can pick the discipline you love whether its chemical or mechanical or electrical or whatever. But the big trend is that computer processing power and memory allows many more sensors and effectors in ...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 12, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Ally.com only paying 1% after interest rates went up?
Replies: 16
Views: 2736

Re: Why is Ally.com only paying 1% after interest rates went up?

Great question. All I can say is that my observations of many decades is that when interest rates go up, rates on loans (including credit cards) go up immediately, but interest rates on bank accounts remain stuck and move up very slowly. And when interest rates go down, the same thing happens the o...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Advice On An HOA Special Assessment
Replies: 22
Views: 2785

Re: Seeking Advice On An HOA Special Assessment

I wouldn't worry too much about whether I would be likely to move in factoring into my decision to pay early or not. Unfortunately, you're probably stuck with it. When I had a pending assessment, it seemed virtually impossible to sell my previous condo. If you don't advertise it right away, it will ...
by adam1712
Wed Mar 09, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a real Chip and Pin card?
Replies: 83
Views: 11496

Re: How to get a real Chip and Pin card?

One recommendation is do not try to enter the PIN, just push cancel or enter and input no numbers. The PIN you're trying to use is likely just a cash-advance PIN and not linked to the chip. I had some success with my chip-and-sig card by just pushing cancel at the PIN prompt last summer in Europe at...
by adam1712
Thu Feb 11, 2016 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4763

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

It's not that returns are assumed to be normally distributed. In fact, they usually aren't. How the central limit is applied is that a sample mean from a sufficiently large random independent sample is normally distributed. This means that if you repeatedly sample the returns and compute the sample...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4763

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

But I believe using annualized variances of smaller time periods is a better statistical estimate of the asset's volatility. Nevertheless, if you aren't using a random, independent sample, the preconditions of the appropriate limit theorem aren't met and thus, the theoretical underpinnings that ena...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 10, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4763

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

I read your words, but I don't see any statistical justification--just examples. Can you link to a reference that supports it with some statistical theory? I may not be able to understand it, but I'd like to take a look at any reference you can find. My goal was to describe the central limit theore...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns
Replies: 49
Views: 4763

Re: How to calculate annual standard deviation from monthly returns

... The M* formula just refines the concept to account for compounding of returns, but it's still just an approximation. For periods of two years or more, you can compute the SD using one of the approximation formulas and compare it to the SD computed directly from the annual returns; this will sho...
by adam1712
Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Gravy Train Departed?
Replies: 72
Views: 10149

Re: The Gravy Train Departed?

The overall investment return of the stock market still comes from companies' dividends and stock buybacks and their future growth. You can only possibly lose to market manipulation from trading algorithms when you buy or sell. The longer you buy and hold, the less investments will be affected by th...
by adam1712
Fri Feb 05, 2016 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice for parents with Perfectionist Child?
Replies: 48
Views: 4123

Re: Advice for parents with Perfectionist Child?

Here's my two thoughts: 1) Failing is part of the maturing process, do not protect her too much from experiencing it. Give her time to vent and then be supportive. 2) Have you thought about the activities she's in and actively discussed her priorities with her? I believe the most balanced and well a...
by adam1712
Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving to vs. saving for charity
Replies: 39
Views: 2643

Re: Giving to vs. saving for charity

Thanks for the info everybody. I likely haven't reached my peak earning years yet so I gather there's not a lot I can do to get more of a tax benefit now. I'll probably just continue with my current plan of giving some now but also with an eye to donating more in the future. And it seems like just p...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 30, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving to vs. saving for charity
Replies: 39
Views: 2643

Re: Giving to vs. saving for charity

Thanks for the responses so far, I need to look into Donor Advised Funds more. Do I need to itemize to get their benefit? I currently rent and then have about $2000 in state taxes so I'm a ways away from itemizing. Also, once it's in a DAF, is there any possibility of changing your mind? I didn't sa...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 30, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Giving to vs. saving for charity
Replies: 39
Views: 2643

Giving to vs. saving for charity

I was just wondering how Bogleheads approach planning gifts to charity? I try to give some but don't currently get any tax benefit. I have to admit this hurts my motivation to give. I'm thinking my current plan is about 2.5% of my income going directly to charity and then earmark 2.5% to save for fu...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6-reasons-we-lost-money-on-our-first-rental-property"
Replies: 21
Views: 5434

Re: "6-reasons-we-lost-money-on-our-first-rental-property"

While the title might be slightly misleading, I think the story is applicable to many Americans. I had a similar situation, bought a condo in 2004, moved across the country in 2012. What to do? Only because I'd seen my former neighbor's issues with renting the previous two years as well as some conv...
by adam1712
Fri Oct 16, 2015 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Suggestions for 95-yr old MIL's new assisted living apartment
Replies: 53
Views: 4905

Re: Suggestions for 95-yr old MIL's new assisted living apartment

One piece of advice is I'd worry more about functional things and entertainment than decorating. It totally depends on the person but it was important to my grandmother that she keep getting her newspaper, had her World Book encyclopedia, and lots of old records and photos. Those all take up space a...
by adam1712
Fri Oct 09, 2015 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage as negative bond and home down payment
Replies: 20
Views: 1435

Re: mortgage as negative bond and home down payment

I think the most important thing is having a plan and sticking with it. It's all mental accounting. What's the current asset allocation of the money $100,000 you are saving for the down payment? Do you have 60/40 down payment fund and the retirement account is 60/40. Or is it 100% bonds and your ret...
by adam1712
Sat Jul 25, 2015 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique
Replies: 36
Views: 2114

Re: Mortgage as a reverse-bond technique

... OUR STRATEGY: We are setting aside the bond portion of our retirement savings as extra payments on the mortgage. We have a complicated method of computing that (based on her age), but suffice it to say that it is a set amount that increases by 1% per year. We are still maxing out both 401k acco...
by adam1712
Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pros and cons of adding Roth Option to 401K Plan
Replies: 103
Views: 7441

Re: Pros and cons of adding Roth Option to 401K Plan

I was a 401(k) committee member. We decided NOT to have a Roth 401(k) option. The reasons were: 1. Workers who had low enough incomes to benefit from a Roth option should use a Roth IRA instead. Workers who have low enough incomes that can max the Roth IRA should contribute to the traditional 401(k...
by adam1712
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VRBO illegal rental [Vacation Rentals by Owner]
Replies: 53
Views: 7069

Re: VRBO illegal rental [Vacation Rentals by Owner]

4th Amendment? Yeah, you should always heed the legal advice of someone who does not even know which Amendment applies. Also, why not talk to the police, unless you have done something wrong! Because if you talk to the police, they might find out that you have done something wrong that you are unaw...
by adam1712
Tue Jul 14, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: VRBO illegal rental [Vacation Rentals by Owner]
Replies: 53
Views: 7069

Re: VRBO illegal rental

denovo wrote:
4nursebee wrote:In the future exercise your 4th amendment rights and shut up when talking to the police.



5th


Well, if the police say they want to hang out at your vacation quarters, maybe it's the 3rd. I've always wanted to invoke my 3rd amendment rights.
by adam1712
Sun May 31, 2015 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to furnish a new residence, completely from scratch
Replies: 35
Views: 3985

Re: How to furnish a new residence, completely from scratch

My general strategy is go reasonably nice or go cheap. The worst is being stuck with mid to low quality furniture you bought just to fill space but you don't really like. I started out with a nice couch but then just a couple cheaper folding chairs and IKEA chair. Same with the bedroom, a nice dress...
by adam1712
Sun May 10, 2015 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep taxable for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Keep taxable for TLH?

As long as the money is saved for retirement, you should pay capital gains to make 401(k) or IRA contributions. You will have to pay the capital gains anyway, and getting the money into a retirement account makes all future growth tax-free (Roth) or effectively tax-free or better (traditional accou...
by adam1712
Thu May 07, 2015 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep taxable for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Keep taxable for TLH?

What I am having the most trouble wrapping my head around is the tax difference between paying 15% tax on Roth contributions versus making Traditional contributions with income that would have been taxed at 25%. But maybe it's not worth trying to figure out. In this situation, you should contribute...
by adam1712
Thu May 07, 2015 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep taxable for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Keep taxable for TLH?

Thanks for the replies. I am probably underestimating the value of retirement accounts with current qualified dividends and cap gains being taxed at 0%. Hopefully that switches at some point (maybe about 5 years). What I am having the most trouble wrapping my head around is the tax difference betwee...
by adam1712
Wed May 06, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep taxable for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Keep taxable for TLH? [Tax Loss Harvesting]

The past couple years I've been selling some of my taxable account to max out retirement accounts but I'm debating about whether to slow down. I currently have about $50k left in taxable. I keep kind of hoping I might end up with a capital loss so I can offset $3000 in income per year. Does anybody ...
by adam1712
Wed May 06, 2015 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Aging parent not interested in setting up POA etc
Replies: 26
Views: 3471

Re: Aging parent not interested in setting up POA etc

It may be easier for her to talk about what will happen when she's dead than what to do if she's incapacitated. And really the most important thing is getting the information. Such as what accounts and assets she has. Then it's also important to know her end of life wishes. Not having the legal docu...
by adam1712
Tue May 05, 2015 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor wants to excavate shallow water hole common to both properties
Replies: 31
Views: 3248

Re: Neighbor wants to excavate shallow water hole common to both properties

I would definitely consider ways to exchange property so only one of you was responsible for the pond. And I would be generous with the negotiations, 16.5 acres with a happy neighbor would be worth more to me than 17 acres with an unhappy neighbor. I would also look into what resources are available...
by adam1712
Mon May 04, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will you buy self-driving car?
Replies: 235
Views: 15821

Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

toto238 wrote:My question is when are they going to stop making cars with windows?


A car without windows sounds awful. I don't think I could ride in one without getting motion sickness.

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