Search found 238 matches

by acanthurus
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?
Replies: 56
Views: 2728

Re: Which would you rather own: AAPL or S&P 600 Small Cap Index?

So, serious question--I did some cursory searches once without success. Can anyone come up with an accepted definition of the word "diversification" along with an accepted numerical measure of it, so that we could apply it and find out what represents maximum diversification by that measure? I thin...
by acanthurus
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to handle a large ETF purchase?
Replies: 6
Views: 491

Re: How to handle a large ETF purchase?

I'd call the block trading desk at your brokerage and see what they can do if it's a really big order. Having access to a level 2 order book would be helpful if you are executing the trades on your own. lifesoft seems to be the guy around here in the know on these things fwiw.
by acanthurus
Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 80
Views: 10411

Re: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17

""One thing that I strongly urge: Don't ever, ever, ever if you're an investor think of being out of the market or in the market," Bogle said. Instead, an investor should adjust his or her asset allocation." Ugh, what happened to stay the course? "Adjusting" one's asset allocation based on what the...
by acanthurus
Sat Oct 07, 2017 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using "Bear" Funds In Lieu of Taxable Reallocation
Replies: 8
Views: 698

Re: Using "Bear" Funds In Lieu of Taxable Reallocation

It would tie up a lot of capital. An options collar would be a more cost effective strategy to mitigate risk - sell a covered call against the position to finance the purchase of a protective put. You need to keep the strike prices far enough apart to avoid constructive sale rules and the tax laws a...
by acanthurus
Sat Oct 07, 2017 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: Gold ETF

Are you in a taxable or tax advantaged account? GLD and IAU are taxed differently than most ETFs and there are some workarounds for tax issues if you want gold exposure in a taxable account.
by acanthurus
Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: individual stock taxable account emotions
Replies: 17
Views: 1777

Re: individual stock taxable account emotions

Hi BH's, Thank you for all the help in the past and my endless posts and nervousness on my individual stock portfolio "mistake" of $114,000 total value. I'm a 60/40 37 year old who is all in on the three fund portfolio. All dividend reinvestments are shut off. My tax bracket is low this year and wi...
by acanthurus
Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: time to transfer money to Vanguard, grumble, grumble
Replies: 28
Views: 3688

Re: time to transfer money to Vanguard, grumble, grumble

Unfortunately the Schwab office is 45 minutes away in a city with parking problems. Call that office - it's likely they validate parking or will cover your parking fee. They did that for me. Thanks, but I'm not worried about the parking fee. I'm worried about hobbling blocks with a cane. Call Schwa...
by acanthurus
Thu Oct 05, 2017 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you foresee a drop in housing prices in the next 5 years
Replies: 53
Views: 5308

Re: Do you foresee a drop in housing prices in the next 5 years

As the title says do you foresee a drop in housing prices due to prices being too high for new potential home buyers being priced out of the market? Edit: To clarify I am not asking if there will be another housing market crash, but that a simple supply and demand issue where prices are too high fo...
by acanthurus
Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds
Replies: 64
Views: 7329

Re: Peter L. Bernstein: Cash BETTER than Bonds

Thank you for responding about the early withdrawal penalty. As for the illiquidity of brokered CDs, I purchased them because I got tired from chasing credit union CD rates, which is particularly cumbersome for IRA funds. If I can't re-balance from CDs to stocks, I can live with that. Alternatively...
by acanthurus
Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

I don't think there is a standard distribution determined by four moments. If only the first two moments are known, you use the normal, because the standard normal has mean 0 and standard deviation 1, and you translate and re-scale it to get the desired mean and standard deviation. But I don't know...
by acanthurus
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

Rather than doing it as a Monte Carlo model, treat the random walk as a probability model. Make a probability distribution for the daily changes, and iterate this distribution. The example below does 601*1401 computations per day, and allows prices to range between exp(-10) and exp(10) to the neare...
by acanthurus
Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?
Replies: 15
Views: 2185

Re: Why Long-Term Corporate Bonds (e.g. VBLTX) so Unpopular?

I like this question. Looking at the history of VBLTX, it seems to not have rewarded the extra credit risk very much relative to long term treasury funds like TLT. It looks like duration is much more of a driving factor in returns than credit risk. Does the employer offer any other long duration bon...
by acanthurus
Fri Sep 29, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is this person wrong? Says beating the market is easy.
Replies: 30
Views: 2942

Re: Why is this person wrong? Says beating the market is easy.

'Beating the market' by adding beta exposure is both simple to do and usually foolish unless you know something the market doesn't. It's more risk for more potential reward, minus some costs. This is not a value-added investing strategy though, and anyone with an options or margin account can do it....
by acanthurus
Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone try a "cheap" sapphire-faced watch?
Replies: 11
Views: 889

Re: Anyone try a "cheap" sapphire-faced watch?

Long Island Watch frequently has Orient brand watches with sapphire crystals for $99 on sale (MSRP ~250ish), both quartz and automatic, although you may have to click to be put on the wait/notification list since they are frequently out of stock. Orient is owned by Seiko and has a long history, it's...
by acanthurus
Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Iconic Report Supports Index Investing
Replies: 6
Views: 888

Re: Larry Swedroe: Iconic Report Supports Index Investing

This is an exceptionally thorough and convincing piece to the credit of passive indexing. I still have some questions about cap weighting, but outright active management has just performed so terribly for equity ETFs that unless Buffett was at the helm I doubt I'd ever consider it. The full PDF is w...
by acanthurus
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Rolex and The Boglehead
Replies: 274
Views: 10954

Re: The Rolex and The Boglehead

You are buying your friend a Rolex? Can I be your friend too? :) I have a weird mental thing where I won't spend hardly any money on myself, but I'm ok with spending money on others. I literally live on like 15k per year right now and am well into the two comma club. I mean the guy's dad died right...
by acanthurus
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Rolex and The Boglehead
Replies: 274
Views: 10954

Re: The Rolex and The Boglehead

This thread makes me feel like some kind of extravagant prole for liking JDM mid tier watches. They don't hold their value as well but I don't feel too bad when I scratch them either. As for Rolex? Beautiful watches. Rolex is probably the last brand I think of when I think of 'gaudy' short of Bauhau...
by acanthurus
Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4652

Re: Bogle and Arnott

Bogleheads: Jack Bogle about Robert Arnott: "A brilliant academic” and “the greatest marketer I’ve ever met. -- I wish I was as sure of anything as he is of everything,” http://dealbreaker.com/2017/04/with-friends-like-jack-bogle/ Best wishes. Taylor Does the fact Bogle dislikes him address the mer...
by acanthurus
Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

May I ask what you are trying to illuminate? If it is the downside I will point out that the market has a positive skew and the left tail is very fat. Markets don't generally side downwards, they fall downwards. I don't know how you would model that. It's just a very simple simulation to show how t...
by acanthurus
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Re: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

Also, to give a fair treatment of these products for those who can't tinker with the script on their own, here is an example of how they might behave in a bull market with more normal volatility: Annual Return: 12.0 % Daily Std Dev: 0.4 % Leverage: 1 x Mean Return: 11379.1 Median Return: 11353.7 Tim...
by acanthurus
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides
Replies: 13
Views: 1227

Daily Resetting Leveraged ETFs - Understanding the Downsides

I wrote a Monte Carlo simulator in Python for some leveraged ETF products. My main goal is to start migrating away from Matlab to Python for my professional work since the former is no longer freely available to me through an employer, and I need to learn to do things very very quickly with the nump...
by acanthurus
Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4652

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Overpriced markets can become more even more overpriced. Cheap markets can become even cheaper. It takes a long time for things like country based PE10 to have some sort of predictive utility. If someone can't tolerate several years of relative under-performance in foreign markets, global val is pro...
by acanthurus
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?
Replies: 108
Views: 12456

Re: Any "average Joe" here actually make out well with individual stocks?

I was fortunate to be sitting on 80% cash in 2008. I was trying to start a business and was self-funding. 2009 happened and I decided to get a job instead. Between May '09 and October '09 I invested 100% in stocks. I am no guru, I understood little of stock investing. My metric was "will this compan...
by acanthurus
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data-driven individual stock approach
Replies: 28
Views: 1499

Re: Data-driven individual stock approach

I don't think numbers will help in this regard. My niche is learning about behavioral finance errors and traps. Bogleheads.org is a great place to get the pulse of investors making common "peace of mind" and "sleep well at night" mental accounting mistakes. Psychology and emotions of investors allo...
by acanthurus
Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data-driven individual stock approach
Replies: 28
Views: 1499

Re: Data-driven individual stock approach

Psteinx, Their was a company of genius that had the same idea. Their average IQ was 160. I think the name of the company was "Long Term Management"? Highly leveraged. Long story short...they lost it all & then some. I think Allen Greenspan (Fed) got involved & a bail out was involved. (Talk of jail...
by acanthurus
Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Data-driven individual stock approach
Replies: 28
Views: 1499

Re: Data-driven individual stock approach

Have you identified any free tools for scraping EDGAR or datasets resulting from that?
by acanthurus
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]
Replies: 11
Views: 1480

Re: Hello and a Question ["The Little Book That (Still) Beats the Market"]

If it works, it should work in a mutual fund. I think we give active mutual fund investors too much credit here. They simply won't endure years of under-performance even if the fund manager is eventually proven right. If it takes 3-5 years for a value investing strategy to work, it doesn't matter -...
by acanthurus
Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch
Replies: 17
Views: 3646

Re: James Altucher's get-rich-quick pitch

Derivatives have speculative as well as investment uses. Selling naked puts is usually the former masquerading as the latter. For the retail investor it's sort of like being an insurance company without a team of actuaries to back you up, you make small profits and think you're smart before you get ...
by acanthurus
Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 18170

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

The food in the company cafeteria seemed to be designed to reduce the company's average employees age. Probably easier to kill them than to risk the lawsuit from laying them off after 40.
by acanthurus
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Electric car in evacuation situation
Replies: 61
Views: 4188

Re: Electric car in evacuation situation

I'd still like the boat idea....but not with huge winds or surges.....say a solid week before it hits. I thought about this and have the answer.... Kawasaki Ninja 250 motorcycle. Slowly but surely ride out well before winds start. Attach a motorcycle trailer filled with fuel tanks. This bike gets h...
by acanthurus
Sat Aug 26, 2017 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world
Replies: 43
Views: 4589

Re: Long-run Sharpe Ratios in an ideal world

As I discussed towards the end of this thread (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=222695&p=3438116), I think that there are two primary effects that make returns not perfectly normally distributed: 1: Kurtosis risk/fat tail risk/black swan risk 2. Autocorrelation/mean reversion/s...
by acanthurus
Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 41
Views: 7514

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)

I believe they suspended new purchases of SWLBX in February and they may have transitioned previous SWLBX holders to SWAGX already. It's been a while since I looked at the fund but they are winding down SWLBX for discontinuation and ramping up SWAGX to replace it if I recall correctly. EDIT: It loo...
by acanthurus
Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 41
Views: 7514

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)

With a billion in AUM and the portfolio established it should track quite well now. $1 billion in six months. Congrats Schwab! I believe they suspended new purchases of SWLBX in February and they may have transitioned previous SWLBX holders to SWAGX already. It's been a while since I looked at the ...
by acanthurus
Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 41
Views: 7514

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) & SWAGX

In looking at SWAGX ....this seems to be tracking somewhat below the index? Can anyone shed some light on that? https://s30.postimg.org/mcctt4yc1/image.jpg Maybe SCHZ (ETF) is the preferred route for many? It just tracked badly in February as it was new and getting going. Move the start date to 3/2...
by acanthurus
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 41
Views: 7514

Re: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ) & SWAGX

In looking at SWAGX ....this seems to be tracking somewhat below the index? Can anyone shed some light on that? https://s30.postimg.org/mcctt4yc1/image.jpg Maybe SCHZ (ETF) is the preferred route for many? It just tracked badly in February as it was new and getting going. Move the start date to 3/2...
by acanthurus
Sat Aug 19, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help with overanalyzing purchases
Replies: 17
Views: 1385

Re: Help with overanalyzing purchases

I've been able to get over financial anxiety and feel financially secure, but I still want to be resourceful and make wise purchases. That often leads to over-analysis and wasted time. My expensive hobbies are increases which I'm fine with, but can be tough to assess how to best spend the $. Any ti...
by acanthurus
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did I create a taxable event?
Replies: 2
Views: 361

Re: Did I create a taxable event?

You are fine. No taxable event. The settlement fund is just a place where the sale proceeds get placed temporarily within the Roth brokerage account. The money never left the Roth account.
by acanthurus
Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable account at Vanguard or Fidelity.
Replies: 9
Views: 981

Re: Taxable account at Vanguard or Fidelity.

You could also transfer Investor Class shares, but then you'd be subject to the higher ER, and the $49.95 trading fee at Fidelity when you go to sell. I believe the Fidelity 49.95 charge is for new fund purchases only. Selling should be free, and additional share purchases for an existing fund you ...
by acanthurus
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool

It definitely looks like this can get very complicated with the more permutations of the equity & the equity option & the index option being considered. So far we've been addressing calls without addressing expensive deep in the money puts vs using the cheap call, and we haven't gotten into implicat...
by acanthurus
Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool

The NASDAQ article in my original post seems to indicate (in the section under "Harvesting ETF Losses") that an index ETF such as SPY and an option on the index itself such as SPX would create a wash sale. But I'm not a tax guy either so.... :?
by acanthurus
Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Upgrade car suspension or wait few more years
Replies: 17
Views: 1390

Re: Upgrade car suspension or wait few more years

If it passes a bounce test and you can't see any oil leaking from the shocks on visual inspection, it's probably still safe. If it fails a bounce test and/or you see oil leaking, you should replace them.
by acanthurus
Fri Aug 11, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool

1) The purchase of the buy option creates the wash sale and the cost basis of the option is adjusted upwards. If the option expires you get the lost. If you exercise the option the cost of the shares is increased by the previous lost. Yep, that's the idea. The option is almost always going to be so...
by acanthurus
Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Re: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool

Doesn't work. The IRS has remained mute on what substantially identical is when mutual funds are involved. Not the same with stocks. There are published "rules". The sale of a stock and an option to buy the same stock are substantially identical. See for example http://fairmark.com/capgain/wash/wso...
by acanthurus
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing with Account Restrictions
Replies: 5
Views: 675

Re: Rebalancing with Account Restrictions

I think most people do it annually or quarterly, depending on how closely they watch their portfolio. Usually the market is not so volatile as to require more than quarterly rebalancing. If you're interested in seeing the effects of monthly vs. quarterly vs. annual rebalancing on your own portfolio ...
by acanthurus
Wed Aug 09, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool
Replies: 16
Views: 1341

Options as a Tax Loss Harvesting Tool

I only recently became aware of the wash sale avoidance strategy described in the following links. Since tax loss harvesting seems to be a popular topic, and since options are not frequently discussed here, I thought this might be of interest to some. The general idea is to sell your stock/index ETF...
by acanthurus
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Final word: Bonds in Tax-Deferred or Taxable?
Replies: 10
Views: 1124

Re: Final word: Bonds in Tax-Deferred or Taxable?

I would think this is a question that anyone who has done their own taxes and who owns a calculator could answer. There doesn't need to be a one-size-fits-all solution. And it could change year-to-year depending on your income - I could very easily see an early retiree opting for taxable bonds in a ...
by acanthurus
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Drinking water price craziness
Replies: 79
Views: 7783

Re: Drinking water price craziness

The pH of distilled, deionized, or reverse osmosis water is of no real importance. There is virtually nothing in the water except for a trace amount of carbonic acid, formed when the water came into contact a little bit of CO2 in the air. Because the filtering process removed all the buffering agent...
by acanthurus
Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 369
Views: 31468

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

It is the genus name for a particular genera of saltwater fish. Technically I should have capitalized it I guess... Hello fellow aquatically inspired username person :) I limit my fish keeping skills to the complexity level of African rift lake cichlids or medium-light-level planted tanks though. I...
by acanthurus
Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 369
Views: 31468

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

It is the genus name for a particular genera of saltwater fish. Technically I should have capitalized it I guess...