Search found 517 matches

by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing Business Class Tickets
Replies: 37
Views: 3203

Re: Purchasing Business Class Tickets

As a happy medium, I'd recommend flying Norwegian Air Shuttle in Premium Cabin from NYC to Madrid. Should be about $1,000 each way, plus the flight/stopover in NYC.

And congratulations.
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12192

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Granted, but Taiwan and mainland does get you to 43%. I'd like to invest in an ex-Mainland/Taiwan developing markets index. iShares has Emerging Markets Horizon ETF: "Exposure to large- and mid-cap stocks in the smallest emerging market countries" https://www.ishares.com/us/products/27031...
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 2332

Re: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

joebh wrote:
William Million wrote:I agree that we are in a long-term bull market.


because... ?


I believe technology gains and globalization will cause significant productivity gains, not yet reflected in earnings.
by William Million
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12192

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity. I think this overstates it a little. China will continue to have a big effect on the EM indices, but it's really not that much greater than the effect Japan has on developed indices (~23% right now). VEMAX Co...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 2332

Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

Not that it impacts my allocation, which is relatively conservative (due to proximity of retirement), but I tend to agree that we are in a long-term bull market. I know it's not a common view among many Bogleheads (or PE10 watchers), who expect lower than average returns over the next decade or so. ...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds
Replies: 27
Views: 3587

Re: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds

FTSE All World Ex-US allows us to invest in the "world" with a modest .29 expense ratio and great diversification. Can't see any reason not to do so, especially now when it's selling at a bargain to the US.

I don't expect the US to underperform the world. However, you never know.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 102
Views: 6972

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Sub-3% SWR is a really odd Boglehead quirk. 4% will certainly work well for most.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2309

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

I suppose by re-balancing you get a buying opportunity since you are, by definition, buying shares lower than when you previously balanced.
by William Million
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 6289

Re: I have no more money to invest

Until 40, I was 90 percent stocks. Now at 56, I am about 40 percent and rebalancing. If the market really fell, I would go to a higher stock allocation.
by William Million
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 127
Views: 12192

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity.
by William Million
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7214

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Larry-

I understand you believe adding a small value tilt enables an investor to lower stock allocation. However, why is it desirable to do so? Why is it better to be 50/50 with a s/v tilt than 60/40 without the tilt?
by William Million
Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a growth tilt, advice?
Replies: 13
Views: 681

Re: Considering a growth tilt, advice?

Evidence supports a long-term tilt toward small and value, not growth, though it sometimes takes 15-20 years for the value premium to kick in.
by William Million
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 7214

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

On the other hand, now is an opportune time for someone who believes in SV premium to jump in. In the past, I often pointed out that although I actually believe in the SV premium, it is not right for the vast majority of investors. Some will give up after 5 years of under-performance, some after 10 ...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 6544

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passe...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?
Replies: 21
Views: 1250

Re: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?

I'm probably in the minority on this board but would not use social security in asset allocations.
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 6544

I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passed...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 272
Views: 16173

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Enron In the 90s, I didn't invest in Enron while all my colleagues did. In spite of Fortune proclaiming it the most innovative energy company year after year, I couldn't get over the fact it didn't pay a dividend. Made no sense to me in the energy section, but I didn't understand why. Turns out no d...
by William Million
Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 17557

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Taylor, thanks for that original link to Jack's comments on International. He has never said it "any plainer" than that. 50% of domestic earnings "IS" International, no need to invest in international at all. I would go further and say investing in International outside Domestic...
by William Million
Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 17557

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

your'e right, great time to buy international . . . .
by William Million
Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 183
Views: 18845

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Just to update people: - Starting from the date I sold until today, my portfolio (of cash and bonds) performed +1% better than the Vanguard LifeStrategy 80%equities+20%bonds. (My comparison metric) - I haven't bought back into equities yet, and I am still happy with my decision to sell and not buy ...
by William Million
Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Closed End Funds?
Replies: 1
Views: 246

High Yield Closed End Funds?

While I'm mostly an index kinda guy, I was struck by the high yields in some of the closed end funds selling at discounts: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2015/12/09/4-discounted-closed-ends-with-delicious-yields/ Would anyone consider any of these funds as a small portion of a tax sheltered ac...
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

Re: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?

So it sounds like the "gamble" is that not owning high dividend stocks will not cause the fund to under-perform the index?

Is there any evidence that there is no long-term advantage to higher dividend paying stocks?
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?
Replies: 12
Views: 902

How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?

Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) minimize taxable dividend income. How does the fund accomplish that? Don't we always have to pay tax on the dividends?
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A dead year, never get it back
Replies: 84
Views: 7246

Re: A dead year, never get it back

True that the last 15 years (depending on when you start counting) have been very sluggish for the stock market.

However, during the ups and downs of that period, rebalancing of a balanced portfolio yielded substantial gains.
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military and House Buying
Replies: 8
Views: 582

Re: Military and House Buying

I'm in similar situation. Just don't think it's generally worth taking on the risk. Better to pick the most favorable rental market (rent is highest percentage of house cost), buy there and hold for longer than just 3 years.
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Travel Perks
Replies: 11
Views: 1047

Re: Credit Card Travel Perks

Thanks, right, if I can't find a better offer, I'll stick with Citi Prestige. As alternate, I've thought about the Ritz Carlton Rewards but lounges are more limited and we tend to stay at more middle-class hotels than the Ritz. Honestly, however, $200/year even for 6-8 annual trips to the lounges is...
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Travel Perks
Replies: 11
Views: 1047

Credit Card Travel Perks

I've taken out about 10 credit cards over the past year or so. For those who travel, perks are substantial. Airline and hotel cards are pretty straightforward. They waive their fee for first year while awarding you substantial points, sometimes more if you get a second card for family member. We've ...
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 7849

Re: Age in Bonds

One of the reasons 50/50 does not lose that much ground to 80/20 is the opportunity to buy stocks in down markets. If the market falls by 60%, you're getting lots of cheap equities. Not so for the 80/20 guy. Over the past 15 years, the market has zigzagged quite a bit. For a 30 year early in the acc...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 7849

Re: Age in Bonds

I'm in my 50s and age in bonds. 6 years into a bull market, lots of people nowadays think it's too conservative. Even finding creative ways to justify ever larger stock holdings, such as counting social security or utilities stocks as "bonds." Same thing happened back in 2007. I suspect t...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house: Am I making a bad decision?
Replies: 45
Views: 4570

Re: Buying a house: Am I making a bad decision?

I second 2 observations made by others: - For a non-profit, your employer seems awfully skilled at making money. They get their loan back plus 75% of the profits? Are you kidding me? You can't even pick the price to sell for. Employer shares no burden in closing costs, sales commission. - Dog is too...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 7849

Re: Age in Bonds

I'm in my 50s and age in bonds. 6 years into a bull market, lots of people nowadays think it's too conservative. Even finding creative ways to justify ever larger stock holdings, such as counting social security or utilities stocks as "bonds." Same thing happened back in 2007. I suspect th...
by William Million
Fri Dec 25, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the Deal with Windsor II?
Replies: 2
Views: 564

What's the Deal with Windsor II?

If it merely mirrors Russell 1,000 value index, why bothered with a managed fund? Is there some tax advantage?
by William Million
Fri Dec 25, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the appropriate tip at Starbucks on Christmas morning?
Replies: 76
Views: 4761

Re: What is the appropriate tip at Starbucks on Christmas morning?

Unfortunately, questions on this forum about tipping tend to bring out self-righteous high tippers.

You'll get an unrepresentative sample of Bogleheads telling you to tip $13. I think $3-5 is fine.
by William Million
Tue Dec 22, 2015 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 3-month car rental vs. buying a car vs. other?
Replies: 21
Views: 1334

Re: 3-month car rental vs. buying a car vs. other?

Buying for 3 months? Really bad move. You take a huge risk on repair bills - cost and hassle - pay big sales/registration taxes and actually have to invest time to sell the car. I never liked selling cars, but if it's only very occasionally, I put up with it. I would never put that kind of hassle in...
by William Million
Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 11061

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

By overpaying for housing relative to income, including high TX real estate taxes, you throw away the main economic advantage of being in TX. It's an comparative advantage that you currently enjoy over higher-paid academics at similar-type colleges in, say LA or SF. Makes no sense to me. Right, Hou...
by William Million
Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 11061

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

By overpaying for housing relative to income, including high TX real estate taxes, you throw away the main economic advantage of being in TX. It's an comparative advantage that you currently enjoy over higher-paid academics at similar-type colleges in, say LA or SF. Makes no sense to me. Right, Hou...
by William Million
Sat Dec 19, 2015 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Energy stocks - why not?
Replies: 155
Views: 9571

Re: Large Energy stocks - why not?

XOM is reasonably priced with the nice dividend, but (on the occasions I consider an individual stock or sector ETF) I just don't buy long-term down-trending industries. Also, would never buy an airline stock. Why buy a long-term losing industry hoping for a short-term gain?
by William Million
Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A perfect storm for investors
Replies: 90
Views: 11544

Re: A perfect storm for investors

Even if stocks are too expensive, a theory which I personally don't subscribe to, you can miss out on untold gains waiting for the market to fall. Many people who were right too early lost big. Stay the course.
by William Million
Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?
Replies: 146
Views: 11061

Re: Can I Afford an $800k Home on $4K/month Take Home?

By overpaying for housing relative to income, including high TX real estate taxes, you throw away the main economic advantage of being in TX. It's an comparative advantage that you currently enjoy over higher-paid academics at similar-type colleges in, say LA or SF. Makes no sense to me.
by William Million
Sun Dec 13, 2015 3:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The psychology of high deductible health plans
Replies: 102
Views: 6698

Re: The psychology of high deductible health plans

I don't like any plan to creates incentives for me or a family member to forego healthcare. I have no interest in unnecessary healthcare, except perhaps the occasional massage. However, if skin cancer runs in my family, I'm going to a dermatologist each year for a check-up (even if I can't detect an...
by William Million
Sat Dec 05, 2015 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Equities Overpriced?
Replies: 58
Views: 5011

Re: Are Equities Overpriced?

I am a buy and hold guy in low expense index funds. That being said, I am curious everyone's thoughts on where stock prices are. Schiller seemed to think the market is "frothy" a couple months ago and to be careful. Any opinions? Schiller also thought the market was frothy in 2010. He's m...
by William Million
Fri Dec 04, 2015 3:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent vs Buy: A different look?
Replies: 20
Views: 3484

Re: Rent vs Buy: A different look?

You're missing nothing. You should rent.

Home ownership can sometimes work out quite well, but it is a generally overrated investment.
by William Million
Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My estranged brother is dead, and I am next of kin
Replies: 72
Views: 14268

Re: My estranged brother is dead, and I am next of kin

Sounds like you're already dealing with the hospital. Since he was a vet, he'll get a burial. I would just get into his apartment, clean it out, notify the landlord and see if there are any recurring expenses that need to be cancelled (utilities, subscriptions, premiums, memberships, etc). If he was...
by William Million
Thu Dec 03, 2015 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the "Honda Accord" of bicycles?
Replies: 78
Views: 5598

Re: What is the "Honda Accord" of bicycles?

For you, get it at your local bike store. They'll know how to fit you. Pay attention to how upright you want to sit. Something about $300 for you should be fine. Stay away from the 1 size fits all at the Walmart, Target, type places. On the $300 bikes, sometimes a good idea to upgrade grips and seat...
by William Million
Wed Dec 02, 2015 3:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Say no to high dental cost
Replies: 84
Views: 10446

Re: Say no to high dental cost

I've good and bad experience with US dentists, and good and bad experience with foreign dentists. I would not make the assumption the US dental care is superior than the high-end care in a developing country.
by William Million
Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 25420

Re: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020

He's always predicting recessions, and he's always right - just many years ahead of time. Doesn't take much talent. Following his advice, or PE10, is a near guarantee to under-perform. Note how Shiller believes the 2010 stock market is overvalued by using the hopelessly flawed PE10 metric. It's a b...
by William Million
Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020
Replies: 80
Views: 25420

Re: Shiller - S&P 500 may reach 1430 by 2020

I'll get flamed by the PE10 crowd for saying this, but Nobel Laureate Shiller's predictions are a joke. He's always predicting recessions, and he's always right - just many years ahead of time. Doesn't take much talent. Following his advice, or PE10, is a near guarantee to under-perform. Note how Sh...
by William Million
Sat Nov 28, 2015 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are suitcase locks worth it?
Replies: 44
Views: 3562

Re: Are suitcase locks worth it?

Never underestimate redundancy in security. Locks add a tiny bit more security, so why not? However, valuables should be in carry-on in any event.

Idea that locks attract thieves is a bit of a reach, I think.
by William Million
Fri Nov 27, 2015 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)
Replies: 19
Views: 2390

Re: Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX)

While I'm mostly a Boglehead index guy, I do occasionally pick up very cheap assets when a unique situation arises. I recently bought some VALE (Brazilian company Vale do Rio Doce), a play on minerals and also on the depreciated Brazilian real. Not for the faint of heart.

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