Search found 535 matches

by William Million
Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?
Replies: 77
Views: 6593

Re: Thoughts on Housing Prices Trajectory in the Bay Area?

No one knows. I'm a Bay Area native, but would not buy there. I love The City but believe some around there overrate it a bit, maybe because they are not that familiar with other areas. It's the best US city, on the whole, but traffic is horrible, taxes high and good skiing rather far away. Parts of...
by William Million
Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 102892

Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?

Someone might make good money in a PE10 contrarian fund.
by William Million
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 8599

Re: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income

Just 1 marriage, modest housing costs, committed to saving, never took out a car loan . . . .
by William Million
Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What steps to take to decrease likelihood of credit card fraud
Replies: 31
Views: 2270

Re: What steps to take to decrease likelihood of credit card fraud

I've had several breaches. For instance, it happened in London. I believe it was a small shop on Bond St where I bought an umbrella. Immediately, there were charges for 2 first class tickets from London to Lagos. I notified the issuing bank, and that was that. Had the British police been interested ...
by William Million
Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Capital Gains on Stock Sale
Replies: 8
Views: 487

Estimating Capital Gains on Stock Sale

Best I can do is estimate sale of old stock somewhere between a 95% gain and 65% gain. My sense is IRS is unlikely to fight me if I'm already paying tax on a 65% gain. Is that reasonable assumption?
by William Million
Fri Mar 18, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I proactively freeze my credit?
Replies: 18
Views: 1356

Re: Should I proactively freeze my credit?

My wife did after victim of phishing scam. Actually pretty easy to manage.
by William Million
Sun Mar 13, 2016 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 102892

Re: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?

Has the PE10 crowd thrown in the towel yet? Unlikely. What's happened recently that should cause them to do so? Failing, due to PE10 adherence, to exploit the bull market run since this thread started in 2011 would do it for me. CAPE was about 23 at that time, indicating an over-valued market. Anyo...
by William Million
Sun Mar 13, 2016 5:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are CDs Becoming A Worse Investment?
Replies: 40
Views: 4810

Are CDs Becoming A Worse Investment?

CD rates are not really pushing much beyond 2.25%, even for longer terms/higher amounts. Meanwhile, Short-Term Bond Admiral Shares (VBIRX) at 2.7 year duration is up to 1.29% and Short-Term Corporate Bond Index Admiral Shares (VSCSX) also at 2.7 year duration is up to 2.31%. On the tax-exempt side, ...
by William Million
Fri Mar 04, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone know why Prime money market rate going up?
Replies: 3
Views: 592

Anyone know why Prime money market rate going up?

I see that Prime Money Market is now up to .4%, after many years of nearly 0%. I also recall many years ago Prime Money Market competed with short-term CDs. Any one understand why it's up, and is this likely to persist? I note tax-exempt still has nearly no interest at .01%, making it a no-brainer w...
by William Million
Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?
Replies: 38
Views: 3588

Re: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?

I read her post as well as the SFGate article. It seems as if she expected (and perhaps planned) for things to go down like they did. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole thing was a ploy to become 'internet famous'. Now she's getting 'paid' via GoFundMe, etc. much more than minimum wage for doing ...
by William Million
Mon Feb 22, 2016 6:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?
Replies: 38
Views: 3588

Most Important Financial Decision: Where to Live?

This open letter from an unhappy young Yelp employee to her boss (leading anticlimactically to her dismissal) has caused a stir in the San Francisco Bay Area: https://medium.com/@taliajane/an-open-letter-to-my-ceo-fb73df021e7a#.qqddypn1k Also, heavily discussed in the local paper (http://www.sfgate....
by William Million
Sun Feb 21, 2016 4:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Disappearing premiums!
Replies: 150
Views: 17551

Re: Disappearing premiums!

A tilt that still hasn't paid off in over a decade is not worth it for the vast majority of investors. I don't need a tilt that pays off 5 years after I pass away.
by William Million
Sun Feb 21, 2016 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?
Replies: 71
Views: 9046

Re: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?

Bogleheads are overly cautious, and many believe in lower returns going forward. I see no clear evidence for lower returns. I don't follow projections that closely, but I was basing it off here - https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Based on those, if I have a balanced po...
by William Million
Sat Feb 20, 2016 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?
Replies: 71
Views: 9046

Re: Extreme saving with low returns - not worth it?

Bogleheads are overly cautious, and many believe in lower returns going forward. I see no clear evidence for lower returns.
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Decision! was: Can I retire in 2017?
Replies: 53
Views: 8097

Re: Can I retire in 2017?

Would the move to a retiree complex increase your monthly rent?
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Delta lost my luggage...
Replies: 29
Views: 3360

Re: Delta lost my luggage...

Your credit card might include some lost luggage protection. My main card (Citi Prestige Mastercard) covers up to $3,000/person.
by William Million
Sat Feb 13, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."
Replies: 56
Views: 7119

Re: Yellen: "We're taking a look at negative interest rates."

Keep in mind that Yellen was speaking somewhat theoretically about negative rates in the US, stressing that they are not currently on the table.

In fact, the Fed has begun to raise rates. I don't see any reason that won't continue, though it might be a super-slow process.
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing Business Class Tickets
Replies: 37
Views: 3736

Re: Purchasing Business Class Tickets

As a happy medium, I'd recommend flying Norwegian Air Shuttle in Premium Cabin from NYC to Madrid. Should be about $1,000 each way, plus the flight/stopover in NYC.

And congratulations.
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 192
Views: 25872

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Granted, but Taiwan and mainland does get you to 43%. I'd like to invest in an ex-Mainland/Taiwan developing markets index. iShares has Emerging Markets Horizon ETF: "Exposure to large- and mid-cap stocks in the smallest emerging market countries" https://www.ishares.com/us/products/27031...
by William Million
Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 2796

Re: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

joebh wrote:
William Million wrote:I agree that we are in a long-term bull market.


because... ?


I believe technology gains and globalization will cause significant productivity gains, not yet reflected in earnings.
by William Million
Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 192
Views: 25872

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity. I think this overstates it a little. China will continue to have a big effect on the EM indices, but it's really not that much greater than the effect Japan has on developed indices (~23% right now). VEMAX Co...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years
Replies: 18
Views: 2796

Case for Bull Market Next 15-20 Years

Not that it impacts my allocation, which is relatively conservative (due to proximity of retirement), but I tend to agree that we are in a long-term bull market. I know it's not a common view among many Bogleheads (or PE10 watchers), who expect lower than average returns over the next decade or so. ...
by William Million
Fri Feb 05, 2016 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds
Replies: 27
Views: 4113

Re: Bogle vs. Vanguard on International Funds

FTSE All World Ex-US allows us to invest in the "world" with a modest .29 expense ratio and great diversification. Can't see any reason not to do so, especially now when it's selling at a bargain to the US.

I don't expect the US to underperform the world. However, you never know.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?
Replies: 106
Views: 9079

Re: Here We Go Again: SWR 2.5% or 5.5%?

Sub-3% SWR is a really odd Boglehead quirk. 4% will certainly work well for most.
by William Million
Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?
Replies: 31
Views: 2639

Re: Is there such thing as a buying opportunity?

I suppose by re-balancing you get a buying opportunity since you are, by definition, buying shares lower than when you previously balanced.
by William Million
Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I have no more money to invest
Replies: 76
Views: 7024

Re: I have no more money to invest

Until 40, I was 90 percent stocks. Now at 56, I am about 40 percent and rebalancing. If the market really fell, I would go to a higher stock allocation.
by William Million
Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 192
Views: 25872

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Problem is emerging market funds are now mostly China funds. You don't get much diversity.
by William Million
Tue Jan 12, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8472

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

Larry-

I understand you believe adding a small value tilt enables an investor to lower stock allocation. However, why is it desirable to do so? Why is it better to be 50/50 with a s/v tilt than 60/40 without the tilt?
by William Million
Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Considering a growth tilt, advice?
Replies: 13
Views: 815

Re: Considering a growth tilt, advice?

Evidence supports a long-term tilt toward small and value, not growth, though it sometimes takes 15-20 years for the value premium to kick in.
by William Million
Sat Jan 09, 2016 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small value underperformance, DFA
Replies: 106
Views: 8472

Re: Small value underperformance, DFA

On the other hand, now is an opportune time for someone who believes in SV premium to jump in. In the past, I often pointed out that although I actually believe in the SV premium, it is not right for the vast majority of investors. Some will give up after 5 years of under-performance, some after 10 ...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 7613

Re: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passe...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?
Replies: 21
Views: 1442

Re: Should SS Affect Asset Allocation Strategy for Me?

I'm probably in the minority on this board but would not use social security in asset allocations.
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?
Replies: 92
Views: 7613

I'm curious if over-weighting equity investors still ok?

It seems many Bogleheads have recently dismissed age-in-bonds as overly conservative. Some have, arguably, found inventive ways to justify over-weighting stocks, such as counting pension/social security/house/potential inheritance as part of the bond allocation. As an age-in-bonds guy who has passed...
by William Million
Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 31666

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Enron In the 90s, I didn't invest in Enron while all my colleagues did. In spite of Fortune proclaiming it the most innovative energy company year after year, I couldn't get over the fact it didn't pay a dividend. Made no sense to me in the energy section, but I didn't understand why. Turns out no d...
by William Million
Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 18934

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

Taylor, thanks for that original link to Jack's comments on International. He has never said it "any plainer" than that. 50% of domestic earnings "IS" International, no need to invest in international at all. I would go further and say investing in International outside Domestic...
by William Million
Sat Jan 02, 2016 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?
Replies: 123
Views: 18934

Re: Are any US-only investors having 2nd thoughts?

your'e right, great time to buy international . . . .
by William Million
Fri Jan 01, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)
Replies: 196
Views: 22458

Re: Selling all equities, discuss why I'm wrong. :)

Just to update people: - Starting from the date I sold until today, my portfolio (of cash and bonds) performed +1% better than the Vanguard LifeStrategy 80%equities+20%bonds. (My comparison metric) - I haven't bought back into equities yet, and I am still happy with my decision to sell and not buy ...
by William Million
Fri Jan 01, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Yield Closed End Funds?
Replies: 1
Views: 284

High Yield Closed End Funds?

While I'm mostly an index kinda guy, I was struck by the high yields in some of the closed end funds selling at discounts: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2015/12/09/4-discounted-closed-ends-with-delicious-yields/ Would anyone consider any of these funds as a small portion of a tax sheltered ac...
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?
Replies: 12
Views: 1061

Re: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?

So it sounds like the "gamble" is that not owning high dividend stocks will not cause the fund to under-perform the index?

Is there any evidence that there is no long-term advantage to higher dividend paying stocks?
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?
Replies: 12
Views: 1061

How does VTMFX minimize dividend income?

Vanguard Tax-Managed Balanced Fund Admiral Shares (VTMFX) minimize taxable dividend income. How does the fund accomplish that? Don't we always have to pay tax on the dividends?
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A dead year, never get it back
Replies: 84
Views: 8053

Re: A dead year, never get it back

True that the last 15 years (depending on when you start counting) have been very sluggish for the stock market.

However, during the ups and downs of that period, rebalancing of a balanced portfolio yielded substantial gains.
by William Million
Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military and House Buying
Replies: 8
Views: 699

Re: Military and House Buying

I'm in similar situation. Just don't think it's generally worth taking on the risk. Better to pick the most favorable rental market (rent is highest percentage of house cost), buy there and hold for longer than just 3 years.
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Travel Perks
Replies: 11
Views: 1185

Re: Credit Card Travel Perks

Thanks, right, if I can't find a better offer, I'll stick with Citi Prestige. As alternate, I've thought about the Ritz Carlton Rewards but lounges are more limited and we tend to stay at more middle-class hotels than the Ritz. Honestly, however, $200/year even for 6-8 annual trips to the lounges is...
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card Travel Perks
Replies: 11
Views: 1185

Credit Card Travel Perks

I've taken out about 10 credit cards over the past year or so. For those who travel, perks are substantial. Airline and hotel cards are pretty straightforward. They waive their fee for first year while awarding you substantial points, sometimes more if you get a second card for family member. We've ...
by William Million
Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 9040

Re: Age in Bonds

One of the reasons 50/50 does not lose that much ground to 80/20 is the opportunity to buy stocks in down markets. If the market falls by 60%, you're getting lots of cheap equities. Not so for the 80/20 guy. Over the past 15 years, the market has zigzagged quite a bit. For a 30 year early in the acc...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 9040

Re: Age in Bonds

I'm in my 50s and age in bonds. 6 years into a bull market, lots of people nowadays think it's too conservative. Even finding creative ways to justify ever larger stock holdings, such as counting social security or utilities stocks as "bonds." Same thing happened back in 2007. I suspect t...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house: Am I making a bad decision?
Replies: 45
Views: 5027

Re: Buying a house: Am I making a bad decision?

I second 2 observations made by others: - For a non-profit, your employer seems awfully skilled at making money. They get their loan back plus 75% of the profits? Are you kidding me? You can't even pick the price to sell for. Employer shares no burden in closing costs, sales commission. - Dog is too...
by William Million
Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Age in Bonds
Replies: 108
Views: 9040

Re: Age in Bonds

I'm in my 50s and age in bonds. 6 years into a bull market, lots of people nowadays think it's too conservative. Even finding creative ways to justify ever larger stock holdings, such as counting social security or utilities stocks as "bonds." Same thing happened back in 2007. I suspect th...

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