Search found 233 matches

by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long term viability of Real Estate as an asset class
Replies: 12
Views: 622

Re: Long term viability of Real Estate as an asset class

I understand Vanguard Total Market has Real Estate inbuilt in it. This question is for those who own Real Estate as a separate weighting in their portfolio. I currently have 6% weight to real estate (3%VNQ and 3% VNQI). I want to increase this to 10 % (5% VNQ and 5% VNQI). I am not worried about sh...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 19, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6273

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Yeah, like he said. Can't take it with me when I go anyway. Leave it invested. That's how I see it myself. Can't do any better or any worst than the markets allow for. Take the positive long term slope, and live within your means. "Can't take it with me when I go..." is not an argument for staying ...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding between Roth TSP and Trad TSP
Replies: 26
Views: 1455

Re: Deciding between Roth TSP and Trad TSP

There was more to debate than I thought. The replies lean towards at least a partial traditional investment. The pension is certainly not a guarantee. Because it was a possibility I was planning around it. In hindsight, I was giving it to much value considering it is twenty-five years off. It proba...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?
Replies: 58
Views: 3461

Re: Is a doctor's practice one of the safest and most profitable businesses?

Physicians have the potential to make a very significant income with the right practice and in the right location. Yes it can be very profitable but the time commitment and overhead costs are extremely high. And yes, a physician will likely always be needed and therefor the profession is very safe ...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1263

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

To even begin to answer that, you would need to know how many funds have come into existence in the last thirty years. You having a run of 10 heads in a row when flipping a coin 100 times is unlikely. If a million people fill a coin 100 times, it is very likely that at least one will have a run of ...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1263

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

To even begin to answer that, you would need to know how many funds have come into existence in the last thirty years. You having a run of 10 heads in a row when flipping a coin 100 times is unlikely. If a million people fill a coin 100 times, it is very likely that at least one will have a run of ...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?
Replies: 7
Views: 952

Re: R/E Investing Approaches: Bogleheads vs MMM vs BiggerPockets?

What are the differences and similarities in Real Estate Investment approaches between MMM (MisterMoneyMoustache), Bigger Pockets, and Bogleheads? IMHO there seems to be a specific target audience between the forums though they do overlap. I do appreciate the Bogleheads for keeping the forum non-co...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: F.I.R.E. Portfolio help please
Replies: 7
Views: 1736

Re: F.I.R.E. Portfolio help please

Hi, Please take a look at my situation listed below and see if you would make any changes. Any help would be greatly appreciated! Thanks for sharing. A little about me. Age: Me 42, Wife 41, daughter 3 Emergency funds: Line of credit through our business Debt: $313,000 commercial building 3.75% $30,...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth as good as you think?
Replies: 29
Views: 3467

Re: Roth as good as you think?

I doubt many 25 or 30 year olds can predict what their future tax bracket will be when they retire at ,say, 65. True, but some people have a hint: 1. If your are in the 39% tax bracket, go with tax deferred. 2. If you are making 8 bucks an hour (like my youngest), do a Roth. (Oh, and take the saver...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

Worse than infomercial, CNBC used to have a show " The Millionaire Inside ", I vividly remember in 2007 Barbara Corcoran (now famous for Shark Tank) being on the show bragging about having real estate leveraged to the hilt and spending on HELOCs and how it just keeps going up and up and everyone sh...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

... This is so 90's infomercial - I think I'll just make my fortune in Showtime Rotisserie Grills... Worse than infomercial, CNBC used to have a show " The Millionaire Inside ", I vividly remember in 2007 Barbara Corcoran (now famous for Shark Tank) being on the show bragging about having real esta...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 30,000 in Checking Account
Replies: 136
Views: 21244

Re: 30,000 in Checking Account

Make sure you're maxing your 401(k). May not be a good suggestion. If the OP's tax rate is low, contribute enough to get the match and put the rest in taxable. His income would have to be really low for that to be the case but I doubt that is true with 30k sitting around. My income is actually low,...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

... This is so 90's infomercial - I think I'll just make my fortune in Showtime Rotisserie Grills... Worse than infomercial, CNBC used to have a show " The Millionaire Inside ", I vividly remember in 2007 Barbara Corcoran (now famous for Shark Tank) being on the show bragging about having real esta...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

I don't think it's market timing to take money out because you think you're over exposed in stocks and you want to be in a less risky position. To me, market timing involves selling because you think you'll be able to buy it back later for cheaper. I think there's a subtle yet distinct difference i...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

I don't think it's market timing to take money out because you think you're over exposed in stocks and you want to be in a less risky position. To me, market timing involves selling because you think you'll be able to buy it back later for cheaper. I think there's a subtle yet distinct difference i...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 160
Views: 13806

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Age 32. 79.29% Real estate equity 1.63% TSP 5.91% VTSAX 1.83% traditional and Roth IRA, both VFFVX 11.34% cash Took a while to crunch the numbers. I have always held $50-200K cash in a savings account (earning 0.1% APR) to be able to invest in real estate deals as they come along. I have only recent...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 160
Views: 13806

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Age 48 96% net equities (decreasing by 2% per year, started from 100% two years ago) 43% US stock (1/8 LG, 3/8 LV, 1/8 SG, 1/8 SV) 43% foreign stock (3/8 developed large, 1/4 developed small, 1/4 emerging large, 1/8 emerging small; would be equal if expenses were equal) 10% REITs (1/2 US, 1/2 forei...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your asset allocation and why?
Replies: 160
Views: 13806

Re: What's your asset allocation and why?

Great thread. I would be grateful for recommended source(s) for a newer mutual fund investor to be able to better pin down "need, ability, willingness" to take risk.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]
Replies: 45
Views: 5567

Re: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]

37 yo socal 1099 anesthesiologist here. OP, I was in your same shoes 5 years ago except with 140k student debt. Excellent advice in some of the posts above. Here's some more advice that I have used: -Ask for an interest free loan from your billing company that is secured against your accounts recei...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $5.5K to invest - best strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 1591

Re: $5.5K to invest - best strategy

I wussed out and put $5500 into vanguard Roth IRA. On another note, it looks like funds just came out of my paycheck for traditional and Roth TSP mid-month. Is this normal that contributions are made in the middle of the month and again at the end? I just assumed it would all be deposited the end of...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $5.5K to invest - best strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 1591

Re: $5.5K to invest - best strategy

rosylenm wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:28 am
What are your goals? If anything, your goals should be driving your investments.
Goals are $10K/mo. passive income by 12/31/19 and $3M net worth by 12/31/20.
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $5.5K to invest - best strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 1591

Re: $5.5K to invest - best strategy

I'd fully fund the IRA (LifeStrategy Growth), but I'm something of a Boglehead. Can you buy BTC in the IRA? Right now, my Roth IRA contains only 4 figures in VFFVX (2055 Target fund). Would you suggest using the LifeStrategy instead? Thats an interesting question. I would imagine you could hold cry...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $5.5K to invest - best strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 1591

Re: $5.5K to invest - best strategy

Why have you been investing 10k per month and have not funded your Roth IRA already? That is always a better choice than a taxable investment. Good question. I have been out of mutual funds entirely since 2015. Now will fund the TSP last 3 months $15K 50 % trad. 50% Roth. I have been funding large ...
by WanderingDoc
Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $5.5K to invest - best strategy
Replies: 22
Views: 1591

$5.5K to invest - best strategy

If you have $5.5K to invest at the end of the year (ie. nowish), would you throw it into a Roth IRA or buy 1 Bitcoin and 1 Etherium? I signed up for Coinbase, linked my bank account, verified ID etc. but so far chickened out to buy any cryptocurrency. I probably wouldn't notice either way, as I have...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: input needed on this book by Robert T. Kiyosaki in the "Rich Dad" series. Helping a friend.
Replies: 7
Views: 1258

Re: input needed on this book by Robert T. Kiyosaki in the "Rich Dad" series. Helping a friend.

What Robert Kiyosaki teaches is valid. [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] Thats business. If you are dealing with thousands or potentially millions of people in business, you cannot or should you be expected to keep everyone happy all the time. Wake up. Its 2017. You do not need to pay money for...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 11, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

The question becomes, would any rational individual go ahead and put money in a 401k and IRA knowing that there was a GOOD (not 100%) chance that real returns will be around 3% for the next 20 years. What are your thoughts? Yes, it would be rational to save money in that environment. I expect these...
by WanderingDoc
Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is "Fully Valued," Says Vanguard's Jack Bogle 10/7/17
Replies: 87
Views: 12166

Re: Bogle thinks markets are fully valued

https://www.thestreet.com/amp/story/14333626/1/stock-market-is-fully-valued-says-vanguard-s-bogle.html "I believe strongly that [investors] should be realizing valuations are fairly full, and if they are nervous they could easily sell off a portion of their stocks.," said Bogle, adding that investo...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2619

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

Well, I don't know where you get 25-30 years from, unless you were referring to how long it will take to retire if you put your savings into a 401k and IRA if you are fairly lucky. Personally, my real estate net income already covers my living expenses. Therefore, I am FI in less than 4 years inves...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2619

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

If you want to be financially independent as soon as possible then 100% equity. It will have the widest time variation in getting there but the lowest expected time. But you also need an allocation that you can live with. If you are too aggressive and you change the allocation at the wrong times be...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2619

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

My assets have reached a million and that definitely makes me more skiddish with our current political environment and the high value of stocks. I'm moving towards 80/20 stock bond ratio and 30% of stocks in international. This sounds like a market-timing approach, which isn't recommended. You need...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good Asset Allocation
Replies: 48
Views: 2619

Re: What is a good Asset Allocation

If you want to be financially independent as soon as possible then 100% equity. It will have the widest time variation in getting there but the lowest expected time. But you also need an allocation that you can live with. If you are too aggressive and you change the allocation at the wrong times be...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]
Replies: 45
Views: 5567

Re: Anesthesiologist Advise [how to save money]

Folks telling someone earning $25K/mo. to live frugally, drive a beater car, and move to a cheaper place in SF? I thought I've seen it all. This gentleman/lady has obviously demonstrated their ability to earn a high income, and worked hard for it. Now they are expected to scrounge and save? Do you t...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shifting Gears - Sanity Check
Replies: 19
Views: 1234

Re: Shifting Gears - Sanity Check

I know the smart people will chime in with portfolio recommendations.

Do you mind sharing what the "6 figure mistakes were"?
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 months left to contribute and max TSP
Replies: 25
Views: 2241

Re: 3 months left to contribute and max TSP

That is quite a prolific military family! :) I swear it wasn't my idea! My spouse and I met in college, and our daughter grew up with the Navy. She's the one who insisted on dating a sailor. It was very romantic-- they met during a cryptographic materials training class. 18 months later they decide...
by WanderingDoc
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 months left to contribute and max TSP
Replies: 25
Views: 2241

Re: 3 months left to contribute and max TSP

You were active duty military? Medical? I have never heard of a Personnel Support Detachment. I wonder if I can find out if one exists where I am stationed. The local DFAS office states that they have nothing to do with physician/bonus pay. The fellow who handles our physician pay says he cannot do...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rental properties in lieu of bond in AA?
Replies: 29
Views: 947

Re: Rental properties in lieu of bond in AA?

My investment property took a hard hit during 2009-2012, losing about 1/3 at the bottom. But I still collected the same rent with almost 0% vacancy . My primary lost about 15%-20%, which was not that bad either, and I was still living in it, equivalent to 3-4% dividend as saving on rent. Maybe it i...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I hadn't seen your earlier post about that, sorry. That is a bit of an extreme portfolio, but if it's your plan and something you can stick to, go for it. I say doesn't move the needle much with the 1% theory, because, well, it doesn't. If someone has $10k invest and $100 of it in Bitcoin, even whe...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

So if I decide to sell all my stocks and bonds and place everything in real estate and bitcoin, what is the optimal AA? Sounds like 99% real estate/1% bitcoin might be a sweeet spot. :twisted: I am currently sitting at 83% various forms of real estate, 9% cash, and 8% mutual funds. I am FI in my ea...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I hadn't seen your earlier post about that, sorry. That is a bit of an extreme portfolio, but if it's your plan and something you can stick to, go for it. I say doesn't move the needle much with the 1% theory, because, well, it doesn't. If someone has $10k invest and $100 of it in Bitcoin, even whe...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

And people say we're nuts to hold Bitcoin, which is already up 360% this year. You're nuts not to have 1% in bitcoin. 1% in bitcoin would have added 3.6% to your performance this year, and the most you can lose is 1%. Which you made in a quarter. You just keep frequently scooping off your profits (...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice to give 21 year old?
Replies: 133
Views: 9427

Re: What advice to give 21 year old?

And with those opportunities, we still see equally or even brighter students going to med school, borrowing 250K, then doing 5-6 years residency, coming out at over age 30, no savings, to start at $180-225K for family practice or internal medicine, maybe 350K surgical. More and more they are notici...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

And people say we're nuts to hold Bitcoin, which is already up 360% this year. You're nuts not to have 1% in bitcoin. 1% in bitcoin would have added 3.6% to your performance this year, and the most you can lose is 1%. Which you made in a quarter. You just keep frequently scooping off your profits (...
by WanderingDoc
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Agreed about real estate... Much better investment than stock and bond index funds, particularly when looking at the expected returns of a Boglehead portfolio going forward based on current market conditions. One issue, however, is location, location, location... What if you live in a location wher...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 08, 2017 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

Yeah, projections like this are really making me start thinking about getting into some real estate, or working even more to grow my side business, or moving more money to bonds, or *something*. The future just looks so bad with valuations and interest rates where they're at, and I think that shovi...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I would genuinely be disappointed in any deal which returns less than 20%. Dude, you really need to get off the computer and write some books or set up some seminars. If you have a recipe for 20% returns, you're going to become famous. :sharebeer I do have some ideas for books, but that won't be on...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off
Replies: 87
Views: 10067

Re: Third time in my 32 year career I have been laid off

I have only been investing in real estate since late 2013.. Edit 2: Yes, only on BH.org is investing in one of the most profitable and desirable market in the U.S. "risky" and "not diversified enough". You really don't have enough experience to be lecturing people about investing. You are EXACTLY t...
by WanderingDoc
Sun Oct 08, 2017 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I would genuinely be disappointed in any deal which returns less than 20%. Dude, you really need to get off the computer and write some books or set up some seminars. If you have a recipe for 20% returns, you're going to become famous. :sharebeer I do have some ideas for books, but that won't be on...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 07, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....
Replies: 75
Views: 8130

Re: I'm thinking about cashing completely out of equites....

I love the Rick Ferri AA for retirees. Currently we have 40% all world equity + 20% corp bonds + 20% US treasuries + 15% TIPS + 5% CASH. Both wife and I are 60 years old. Our plan is to reduce equity over the next 10 years so when we're 70 our port will look the same except when we are at 30% equit...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

3% is better than Nothing. Anyway, Keep Investing :happy Sorry, but 3% is [absolutely unacceptable --admin LadyGeek] . Nobody gets rich with 3% annual. There must be alternatives. I dunno, buying condos, renovating them and renting them out will get you more than 3%. Investing that money in some bu...
by WanderingDoc
Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 15512

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

The question becomes, would any rational individual go ahead and put money in a 401k and IRA knowing that there was a GOOD (not 100%) chance that real returns will be around 3% for the next 20 years. What are your thoughts? Yes, it would be rational to save money in that environment. I expect these...