Search found 6656 matches

by Wagnerjb
Thu May 26, 2016 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?
Replies: 19
Views: 2021

Re: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?

Keep in mind that "failure" of your portfolio doesn't necessarily mean you are living with your children and eating cat food. It just means that you have only social security, a pension (possibly) and the potential to sell your house or enter into a reverse mortgage.
by Wagnerjb
Thu May 26, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?
Replies: 19
Views: 2021

Re: The problem with predictions: Will 2000-Era Retirees Experience the Worst Retirement Outcomes in U.S. History?

I came across a 2010 paper from Wade Pfau (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1717283) where he found that someone who retired in 2000 had the worst first 10-years in retirement history (1929 and 1999 tied for second place). Yes, that is probably true. But Wade twists the scenarios as hard as he can to find ...
by Wagnerjb
Tue May 24, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International small cap as only international fund
Replies: 8
Views: 579

Re: International small cap as only international fund

I know many of you already tilt small cap international, but given the correlation between domestic and international large-cap, would anyone consider only owning international small cap (VFSVX, for example) as their sole international holding? Does anyone here already do this? I tilt quite a bit t...
by Wagnerjb
Tue May 24, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just shorted the S&P, now what do I do?
Replies: 53
Views: 5151

Re: I just shorted the S&P, now what do I do?

No. Buying a put on an asset that you own is different than shorting. In particular, you still have the upside from the asset. You also have protection against downward movement. And you have paid a premium for that protection. In this case, the put buyer paid about $9500 to protect $201,000 of the...
by Wagnerjb
Tue May 24, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

However many of these high income individuals will have other sources of income which use up their lower tax brackets: social security, pensions, maturing savings bonds, RMDs. I suspect the gain is typically less than you have calculated. The gain may be less for some, but they would know that in a...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I just shorted the S&P, now what do I do?
Replies: 53
Views: 5151

Re: I just shorted the S&P, now what do I do?

I have my play funds and decided this morning I wanted to short the S&P by buying Dec 16 puts on SPY @ 201 strike price (10 contracts). Not sure why I felt the need to do this as a huge chunk of my investments are in the S&P 500 index. So....you are long the S&P500 in your retirement po...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

Minimal downside to your approach, but what is the upside? Will your tax bracket be meaningfully lower? Let me give you a hypothetical as to how this might look for a higher-income individual. (I will use rounded numbers and simplify, so this isn't exact). Let's say they defer $75,000 per year for ...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a soon-to-be MLB draftee
Replies: 35
Views: 3354

Re: Advice for a soon-to-be MLB draftee

I have acquaintances like that. They suggested the draftee continue to live like a college student and invest their entire compensation. This has always been beneficial because most signees wash-out in a couple of years and then it is back to the ol' grind. Good advice. I play golf with a co-worker...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

Employment separation can happen through quitting, either voluntarily or involuntarily. Are you planning for that too? It may cause a ‘distribution event’ and some NQ plans return all the deferred money in lump sum which can trigger tax liability. I tried to find out if NQ money can be converted to...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 1909

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

I believe something like 50% of the S&P500 sales/earnings/profits are sourced from foreign business activity. Pretty much a relatively low cost/tax efficient 'global' already. Our UK FTSE100 index (100 largest firms) source around 75% to 80% I believe from foreign. If I hold foreign then there'...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k Advice
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: 401k Advice

katzmandu wrote:
bmoore1611 wrote:Thank you. I edited the original list to reflect the expense ratios.


Looks like the only 2 worth putting money into are your Fidelity Spartan options. The rest of the ratios range from bad to "Are you kidding me?"


I agree
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 23, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

My plan is when I have a substantial amount in, saying 7 figures, I plan to buy way out of the money put options against the company so in the event they go out of business I'll collect on the put option Another strategy that I belive would work is buying a credit default swap against the company b...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 22, 2016 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover - silly concern
Replies: 27
Views: 1687

Re: Rollover - silly concern

Our pension plan has the same archaic rules. Both my wife (in 2011) and I (in 2015) requested a Lump Sum distribution from our pension plan, and we got a paper check in the mail. It was made out "Vanguard FBO IRA my name". I simply mailed the check to Vanguard and it turned out fine. When ...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 22, 2016 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

So we have crossed our fingers and hope not to exceed 25 percent of our retirement savings in the plan, with retirement being 10 to 15 years out for my wife, sooner for me. That may be too risky, not sure... And just to make things even dicier, the bond fund options in the plan are poor, so we have...
by Wagnerjb
Sat May 21, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?
Replies: 47
Views: 3802

Re: Deferred Comp: How long do you trust your company?

I worked for a huge energy company but I nonetheless managed my risk like you are considering. Here is what I did: A) Waited until closer to retirement (last 10 years) to contribute to the NQDC plan. B) Limited my total investment to 10% of my net worth, and C) Chose a five year payout after retirem...
by Wagnerjb
Sat May 21, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 1909

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

Yes I know, out of sample, different country/circumstances etc. But does provide a feel for other economics (UK is a relatively mature market that saw more a case of decline (loss of empire) whereas the US has been more of a emerging market). I perceive a tendency by US investors to only look at US...
by Wagnerjb
Fri May 20, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging markets value premium
Replies: 10
Views: 874

Re: Emerging markets value premium

Is there an emerging markets value premium? If so, is DFA Emerging Markets Value (DFEVX 0.56%) a good way to capture it, or would you recommend a different investment? I have not seen any studies suggesting that the value premium should not be expected in Emerging Markets. I own DFEVX and feel that...
by Wagnerjb
Thu May 19, 2016 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expat American investing in Singapore
Replies: 12
Views: 830

Re: Expat American investing in Singapore

I just discovered that Vanguard also has a SG branch: https://www.vanguard.sg/institutional/home.htm. Could an American living in SG invest through that office--without having to pay the currency exchange rates, or sneak around the US residency issues? Just about every single responder to your post...
by Wagnerjb
Thu May 19, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)
Replies: 28
Views: 1909

Re: Stocks, Bonds, and "Real Assets" (TIPS, REITs, Commodities)

"Real Assets" are defined in the book as TIPS, REITs, Gold, and Commodities. Meb Faber indicates that real assets should be an essential part of a well diversified portfolio. And he shows that portfolios without them did not fare well during the inflationary 1970s for example. TIPs, REITs...
by Wagnerjb
Wed May 18, 2016 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing passively in inefficient markets
Replies: 11
Views: 882

Re: Investing passively in inefficient markets

But for those of you who hold an emerging markets fund (I'm not talking total-world international) are you confident that passive stock selection is the smartest way to go? Are you concerned there's unnecessary garbage in there that could be weeded out by a research-oriented fund manager? When I se...
by Wagnerjb
Wed May 18, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Expat American investing in Singapore
Replies: 12
Views: 830

Re: Expat American investing in Singapore

I was an expat in Malaysia 20 years ago. Our company provided us with a US post office box address, so Vanguard did not have an issue with our accounts (I believe the laws may be stricter today, but I see no reason Vanguard would determine that I wasn't living in the states). If you can use an addre...
by Wagnerjb
Tue May 17, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 4745

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

I built a simple spreadsheet to track my investments. I had assets in the company 401k plan, an IRA, an after-tax account and some company stock, among others. Once a month (at the end of the month) I would update the spreadsheet. Updating the prices manually takes less than 5 minutes and the spread...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 15, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Effect of partial donation of shares on remaining cost basis
Replies: 6
Views: 267

Re: Effect of partial donation of shares on remaining cost basis

You will reduce your basis by the "cost" of the shares you donated. If your mutual fund is keeping the average cost for you, then that is the number to use. If the value of the remaining shares is substantial (as well as the gain) and you don't want to donate these remaining shares all at ...
by Wagnerjb
Thu May 05, 2016 10:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?
Replies: 9
Views: 700

Re: How does Market Analysis affect your investment?

Many recent posts are about expecting low stock return in the next 10 to 20 years. Do you make adjustment to your investments/alter your asset allocation based on these research? I don't consider forecasts of future equity returns to be "research". I ignore those forecasts. I pay attentio...
by Wagnerjb
Mon May 02, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable Value Fees
Replies: 9
Views: 884

Re: Stable Value Fees

0.2% for T. Rowe Price stable value in my 401k. But I tend to look at the yield more than the expenses for a stable value fund. I just look at the yield as well. This isnt some public mutual fund where you can see the underlying bonds. In this case the ER isn't as relevant as the yield, which in my...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 01, 2016 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Muni Funds ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1027

Re: TLH Muni Funds ?

Thanks for the helpful responses. I kept seeing references to munis and the 6 month rule in various posts on the forum. If it is a recent change then it meshes with the wiki. Wash sale rules avoided by going into a different fund. I am one poster who started a thread to highlight this risk maybe 6-...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 01, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Muni Funds ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1027

Re: TLH Muni Funds ?

Are Vanguard muni funds exempt from the 6 month rule? This was discussed a while back and the answer given was, "Yes." The reason being given in example #1, here: http://www.fairmark.com/capgain/wash/wsreplac.htm No, the link you provided refers to the wash sale rule. This issue - the six...
by Wagnerjb
Sun May 01, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New job, rolling over 401K
Replies: 11
Views: 885

Re: New job, rolling over 401K

Your asset allocation and the funds you are using look very sensible. Your investment strategy seems sound and logical too. My only concern is with your savings balance. Without disclosing your exact salary and nest egg size, I assume you have roughly 2 times your salary in savings. You have a very ...
by Wagnerjb
Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shareholders want their (voting) rights back
Replies: 16
Views: 1422

Re: Shareholders want their (voting) rights back

Looks like Facebook's Zuckerberg is going this route, dual share classes to maintain control while he sells his shares. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/technology/facebook-q1-earnings.html?_r=0 The new C shares effectively allow Mr. Zuckerberg to maintain 60 percent of voting power while still gi...
by Wagnerjb
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Tax Credit, Form 1116, Double Taxation
Replies: 16
Views: 1265

Re: Foreign Tax Credit, Form 1116, Double Taxation

The foreign tax credit is intended to make the taxpayer pay the greater of the foreign tax or the US tax. In this case, taxpayer B paid 15% to the foreign government and would be paying 7% to the US. The FTC of $208 is essentially the refund of the 7% that he would be paying to the US. Thus, in the ...
by Wagnerjb
Fri Apr 29, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips Wanted: Sydney to Melbourne, Great Ocean Road
Replies: 3
Views: 226

Re: Tips Wanted: Sydney to Melbourne, Great Ocean Road

My wife and I recently spent time in Sydney (New Year's eve), flew to Melbourne and also did the Great Ocean Road. I have two thoughts on your itinerary: a) We rented a car from Hertz and it went smoothly. Unless you are familiar with driving on the left side of the road, be sure to request (in adva...
by Wagnerjb
Fri Apr 29, 2016 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 700

Re: Tax Diversification

Which does not make Roth 401K the right answer. What is you current marginal tax rate? If it is 25%, A) If you are married, you need at least 2.5 million worth of investment before you will hit the 25% marginal tax rate at retirement. B) If you are single, you need at least 1.25 million of investme...
by Wagnerjb
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 6818

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

Whenever I have seen predictions about the markets over my investing life of over 30 years, they are most often completely wrong and usually follow this path. 1.) Prediction is made with almost 100% certainty. 2.) Book usually accompanies prediction written by the same author. 3.) the time period e...
by Wagnerjb
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Impotence - difficulty living below means
Replies: 14
Views: 1418

Re: Financial Impotence - difficulty living below means

bigred77 wrote:I just don't have a lot of sympathy for the author and didn't appreciate his implications that the deck is stacked against every day Americans and that they are victims here.


Same here
by Wagnerjb
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question: Mega Cap or S&P 500?
Replies: 8
Views: 741

Re: Question: Mega Cap or S&P 500?

When did Vanguard come out with a Mega Cap fund?

If you are referring to the Large Cap index fund, I think it is a tossup and I cannot think of a compelling reason to prefer one over the other.

Best wishes.
by Wagnerjb
Sun Apr 24, 2016 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will Chip + Sign CC work in Europe?
Replies: 27
Views: 2120

Re: Will Chip + Sign CC work in Europe?

They work in most situations but won't work in a lot of unattended kiosks. My wife and I were in Australia and New Zealand in January (yes, I know that isn't Europe, but the experience with credit cards was similar). We had chips in our credit cards, but not the PIN. At every single store or restau...
by Wagnerjb
Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K Allocations - 5 years to Retirement
Replies: 8
Views: 1054

Re: 401K Allocations - 5 years to Retirement

Here are a few random comments: I would tend to view the husband's pension as a fixed income investment. As such, it represents the 60% in fixed income for your overall portfolio and I would concentrate primarily on equities for the 401k plans and IRAs and Deferred Comp plan. What rate of interest a...
by Wagnerjb
Thu Apr 21, 2016 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Strategy?
Replies: 26
Views: 3018

Re: Bond Fund Strategy?

My fixed income strategy is influenced by several DFA advisors, including Larry Swedroe. They state that risk is rewarded in equities with much greater returns, while risk in fixed income is rewarded with less of a return bonus. Fixed income provides ballast and risk reduction for your equity portfo...
by Wagnerjb
Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden
Replies: 107
Views: 9074

Re: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden

I ran some numbers for you. I assumed that your SO will pay just the interest on this loan of $200k at 7%, or $14,000 per year. You are concerned that your SO will owe income tax on the value of the forgiven loan after 20 years - which will be valued at $200k at the end. So, your SO might owe $60k i...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Don't Include 529s in Portfolio, Correct?
Replies: 14
Views: 1357

Re: Don't Include 529s in Portfolio, Correct?

hafjell wrote:I'm guessing nobody includes assets in 529s for their children are not included as part of portfolio or net worth.


Correct, I do not include those assets in my retirement numbers.
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden
Replies: 107
Views: 9074

Re: Cannot Pay Huge Tax Burden

3. He could live on ramen noodles in a dangerous, rundown apartment for 20 years to pay off the loans. It would take every penny of his discretionary income or even a little more (which is, of course, not payable then). I vote for this one. Maybe he can get a roommate to further lower costs. Ride h...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?
Replies: 43
Views: 4261

Re: If past performance doesn't indicate future performance, why buy stocks?

Future performance is based on the legal structure of corporations, investor's appetite for risk and growth in the economy. It has been demonstrated that investors demand a higher expected return for investing in an instrument with more risk. The legal structure of equity (common stock) is that it h...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns
Replies: 22
Views: 2706

Re: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns

Markets price risk, not expected return. Dave The risk is the expected volatility, not the current price of the equities. Do you believe that the current level of the market impacts the volatility going forward? I don't. I believe that a market with intelligent investors will serve to price equitie...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Voya Fixed Account 4%
Replies: 11
Views: 1978

Re: Voya Fixed Account 4%

Why invest in something you do not fully understand? In fact, it seems you have received conflicting information, which I would also find troubling. I agree with this advice. Something doesn't fit together here, and you are not sure what it is. Maybe the risk is higher than you think, maybe the fee...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement portfolio advice
Replies: 2
Views: 354

Re: Retirement portfolio advice

Welcome to the Forum! A safe retirement account withdrawal is something close to 4%, but your initial withdrawal of $38k will be closer to 6%. However, that will only last 7 years, after which you will be withdrawing next to nothing. As long as your withdrawal reverts to a very small amount when you...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns
Replies: 22
Views: 2706

Re: Current Valuations US v. Int & Expected Returns

I'm curious if anyone has good numbers for current valuations for US, International, and Emerging Markets and the resulting expected returns. Why wouldn't the expected returns be the same for large cap developed markets in the US and International? No intelligent investor is going to put his money ...
by Wagnerjb
Wed Apr 20, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Filed form 8606 when not needed - should I amend?
Replies: 5
Views: 545

Re: Filed form 8606 when not needed - should I amend?

My understanding is that you don't need to file 1040X since there is no impact to the tax liability. I recently corrected a Form 8606 from a few years ago, and the filing was done by KPMG....and they did not include a 1040X with the amended Form 8606 since there was no change in tax liability. Best ...
by Wagnerjb
Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Adj Return: Single Stock Vs. Portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1133

Re: Risk Adj Return: Single Stock Vs. Portfolio

I'm reminded of a story about John Greaney (of early retirement homepage) who claimed to have owned significant positions of Dell, i think it was, before that stock exploded and his gains were so great, it single-handily allowed him to retire early. There's 0% chance of that happening with VIG. And...
by Wagnerjb
Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Charitable Fund performance and fees
Replies: 3
Views: 365

Re: Fidelity Charitable Fund performance and fees

Did you scroll down and notice this footnote? 1 Pool created 07/01/2011, therefore historic performance is not available for earlier periods. Pool is 100% invested in the underlying mutual fund displayed beneath the pool. Pool results will include a Fidelity Charitable annual administrative fee as d...

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