Search found 31854 matches

by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT
Replies: 12
Views: 1653

Re: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT

I have invested a very small amount (less than 5%) of my investable assets into Fundrise in the past 4 years as 1) I am in commercial real estate, and 2) I am in the DC area, where they got started and am familiar with some of their principals and properties. There is no doubt that they charge high...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 2
Views: 411

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

I just received what i think is a monthly email from Blackrock (iShares). What caught my attention is the concise explanation of why the historical relationship between low levels of unemployment and increase rates inflation (the famous Phillips curve) has been rather weak in this economy. The text...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

That definition refers to a stock exchange , and not a currency exchange. There's no such thing as "insider" information in a currency exchange. More proof: https://i.imgur.com/9DheIo3.png You are misreading the article. The article is merely claiming that insider trading in FX is a not a crime. Th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 49
Views: 4331

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

It is very interesting, but some caveats. The authors state: This method assumes that the indices cover a representative portfolio of houses. If so, there is no need to correct for changes in the housing stock, and only information about the growth rates in prices and rents are necessary On average...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED light bulbs
Replies: 96
Views: 7862

Re: LED light bulbs

After years on fixating with color for video / image color grading, Phillips Hues are now creeping all over the apartment I have and making light switches go extinct. No, not the best bulbs out there, but they are good enough for me and the other benefits outweigh that. I don't like that there is k...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED light bulbs
Replies: 96
Views: 7862

Re: LED light bulbs

After years on fixating with color for video / image color grading, Phillips Hues are now creeping all over the apartment I have and making light switches go extinct. No, not the best bulbs out there, but they are good enough for me and the other benefits outweigh that. I don't like that there is k...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Every sentence I read written by someone trying to support why they are buying bitcoin reinforces my believe that they are gambling and speculating. The things that make it feel like gambling: - the win-lose nature of any transaction. There's only limited societal value being created here (so far!)...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Merchants may prefer it over credit cards because there are no fees or chargebacks. Remember, the transaction time for bitcoin may be slow compared to credit cards, but the settlement time for credit cards is around 1 month (the time after which you cannot do chargebacks). Look at some of the large...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Two Aussies were convicted of insider trading in the currency markets: http://www.financemagnates.com/forex/analysis/australian-insider-trading-duo-gets-jail-time-after-trading-margin-fx/ Hmmmm, I don't know if that's a great example of "insider trading" per se: Hill had abused his position as a Co...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 17, 2017 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Hey I know, let's get the definition from a dictionary! That solves all these debates. :) the illegal practice of trading on the stock exchange to one's own advantage through having access to confidential information . Whoops, it appears you are being intellectually dishonest. :( That definition re...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Home Bias vs whatever else
Replies: 5
Views: 401

Re: Bond Home Bias vs whatever else

The Argentines I know keep bank accounts in Miami etc. They fear confiscation by the government. Argentina has had I think 5 defaults in the last 100 years? I would not have my credit risk w the Argentine government. I would diversify across global bond markets, hedged into USD and perhaps also EUR....
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 19
Views: 1850

Re: bitcoin makes you rich

Not going to touch bitcoin, or any other currency. It's speculation. The average expected return of a speculative investment is 0. Unless the utility value of bitcoin grows (and grows faster than the cost of mining them, because the incentive to be an exchange lies in the mining I believe?). there'...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 19
Views: 1850

Re: bitcoin makes you rich

Bitcoin makes you rich ???? Pls share your experiences. I have heard If you have invested $1000 for Bitcoin in2007, you have 54 million now ????. You have surely checked? You know, someone made an extreme claim about an investment so you checked whether this is true? Do you think you will make thos...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Housing To Avoid Noise
Replies: 57
Views: 4354

Re: Best Housing To Avoid Noise

Condos and Townhouses were thrown in the mix as well. Right now, most people in the US are inclined to rent . This seems to be a strange assertion. c. 60% of US households own their own homes? Is there any evidence that Americans don't want to own homes, i.e. that they can, but choose not to? I thi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 49
Views: 4331

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

We should note demographics. Since 1870 the developed world, and underdeveloped, has seen a revolution in life expectancies. As a result, even though fertility rates follow a predictable pattern 20-30 years post life extension (faster in China), populations worldwide have soared. About 4-5x in that ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 49
Views: 4331

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Residential Real Estate is also a consumption good. Your home provides you housing services. For that reason alone, you'd expect the returns on RRE to be significantly lower than stocks (you can't live in your stock portfolio, ask the fellows in Trading Places ;-)). If it is similar to stocks then R...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 49
Views: 4331

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

How do they actually measure the rate of return on real estate? Do they just find data from the areas where people live or want to live today? If so, then the results are probably massively skewed by survivorship bias. I'm sure the annualized return of real estate in Dubai or Shanghai has been 30% ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

What do you think about Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies? Investing or gambling? Gambling, at least in the context of how its been hitting the news lately. I see the positive uses of cryptocurrencies and I do see the negatives. In terms of using them as speculation vehicles I am not opposed to it, thou...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Calling bitcoin speculation gambling is just pointless name calling. Currency speculation has been around a long time, perhaps longer that stocks. If currency speculation was gambling then the FTC would declare it so and it would be illegal. I don't see that currency speculation has any role in ret...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timing alert !!
Replies: 24
Views: 4147

Re: Market timing alert !!

prettybogle wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:21 pm
Today, We bought $10,000 worth of vgtsx, total international index. Red alert - There will be significant correction to the downside very soon :D :D
Wait until I buy something.

Near perfect correlation.

I made a big purchase in August of 2008, btw.
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 19
Views: 1850

Re: bitcoin makes you rich

Bitcoin makes you rich ???? Pls share your experiences. I have heard If you have invested $1000 for Bitcoin in2007, you have 54 million now ????. How the Bitcoin works, and what is it and how to invest it??. I want to set aside for playing money and want to buy. Is it something like you are buying ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 159
Views: 18047

Re: Social Security for Millennials

I think Bogleheads is the wrong place to ask this question. Millennials on Bogleheads will tend to be good planners/savers and will have enough to live off by retirement, making any SS "gravy". However, I imagine a vast majority of millennials will be depending on SS as a primary source of income i...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: REITs a disappointment, yet still useful
Replies: 19
Views: 2456

Re: REITs a disappointment, yet still useful

Question on the topics of REIT's: I understand REITs are included in index funds such as TSM, SCV, and even international funds. My question is are there advantages to holding them separately in retirement? I am comfortable with the amount I hold, I have over market weight with the index funds I us...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: REIT

FWIW, Berkshire Hathaway recently invested $377 million in a REIT (Store Capital)... https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/26/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-takes-stake-in-reit-store-capital.html I presume they see some long term value there! Hi sleepysurf - I did recently read about this. Warren Buffet...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 16, 2017 2:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inherited Bond - Should I sell?
Replies: 13
Views: 1108

Re: Inherited Bond - Should I sell?

I inherited from family an individual bond that got transferred into my Vanguard account. I am an indexer and don't hold individual bonds. It is a muni but not in the state where I live. Should I just go ahead and liquidate it? I believe Vanguard needs to broker it, I just can't put in a Sell. It i...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: buying a rental property vs investing more in stocks
Replies: 26
Views: 2703

Re: buying a rental property vs investing more in stocks

Confused about buying a rental property vs investing more money in stocks. Living in the SF bay area - being cash flow positive on a rental property is not possible given current prices, nor is it my aim. Current situation : Wife and me in early 30'S Income Me and the wife make base salary: 200K + ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index For Emergency Fund?
Replies: 11
Views: 926

Re: Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index For Emergency Fund?

In this thread you indicated that you are already using a short term bond find, albeit a tax-exempt one: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=225664#p3492123 You appear to be struggling to make up your mind on some aspects of your investment philosophy and enjoy putting a lot of "st...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 50
Views: 6083

Re: ACA 2018

nisiprius wrote:
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:38 pm
We used to be pretty punctilious in this forum about calling it "ACA" and that's probably still a good idea....
Who was this Obama guy anyways? ;-)
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 50
Views: 6083

Re: ObamaCare 2018

I am early retired and health insurance is a factor in where I move for retirement. From this article, Seattle looks attractive. Detroit looks good too. And you can get a really cheap house there. There's a reason... well several reasons for that! Uninsured health costs can of course wipe out all f...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Every sentence I read written by someone trying to support why they are buying bitcoin reinforces my believe that they are gambling and speculating. Speculative return is one component of the return of stocks. An increase in the price to earnings ratio as opposed to an increase in earnings or a div...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: REIT

Another thing to note is that reits were not included in major indices initially, so there could have been benefit to adding them in a portfolio. I don't think that is right. IIRC REITs have been part of the S&P 500 for the last 30 years. I don't have a good reference off the top of my head, but wh...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 167
Views: 15037

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

If the Tesla becomes the 2008 version of GM (aka becomes Government Tesla) won't both the shareholders and the bond holders would get wiped out? I do not believe there is any provision in the current bonds to become stock, at least some of the news reports that I read lead me to believe that. When ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin
Replies: 115
Views: 6433

Re: Bitcoin

Why does gold have value? It undeniably does, and has held value for millennia. Not because of its limited industrial value; steel is probably more valuable in that regard. All gold is about $6 or $7 trillion in value now. That's around 10% of the value of all global stock markets. Gold is divisibl...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Value of International Stock in 401k?
Replies: 32
Views: 1553

Re: Value of International Stock in 401k?

I've just recently learned about the Boglehead philosophy, and I'm still getting my head around the body of knowledge. While reading the wiki, one question that keeps bugging me is how important it is to keep international stocks in my 401k in the short term? My wife and I are 47, and I have a 401k...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: REIT

I understood that really easy. I believe it was Bill Berstein in a recent post stated he does not own REIT. I think he stated he owns enough. I believe maybe he was talking about his house. The interesting part is most of the portfolios I see have REITS. I am reading Random Walk Down Wall street no...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED light bulbs
Replies: 96
Views: 7862

Re: LED light bulbs

After years on fixating with color for video / image color grading, Phillips Hues are now creeping all over the apartment I have and making light switches go extinct. No, not the best bulbs out there, but they are good enough for me and the other benefits outweigh that. I don't like that there is k...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed unloading bonds?
Replies: 17
Views: 2024

Re: Fed unloading bonds?

Could this mean inflation? The article recommends beefing up cash savings, but if inflation were also to come , then that doesn't sound like a good idea. Perhaps it is thinking about potential unemployment situations, or is simply advice to be prepared in case of falling equities. As Milton Friedma...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 167
Views: 15037

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

1.5B bond stretched to 1.8B. Some of the bearish camp here should have reached out to the bond buyers to educate them...those poor rich people. ( I think the bond buying suggests big money continues to have strong interest and belief in success of the company) I suspect it's the name brand recognit...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?
Replies: 167
Views: 15037

Re: Tesla - next big lottery ticket ?

ray.james wrote:
Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:13 pm
I like their solar bonds though. 5.5% for 2-3 year terms. Pretty sweet deal when they offer.
What's the security if the company goes bust?

The other bonds will get the square root of nothing if Tesla goes under - at least from my speed read of the Bloomberg piece.
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: REIT

Another thing to note is that reits were not included in major indices initially, so there could have been benefit to adding them in a portfolio. I don't think that is right. IIRC REITs have been part of the S&P 500 for the last 30 years. I don't have a good reference off the top of my head, but wh...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SP500/Total Stock Market
Replies: 23
Views: 1379

Re: SP500/Total Stock Market

I read somewhere that the SP500 had low returns for a 10 year period. Not sure of the years or return. I know they have a name for it. Quesiton: owning the total stock market fund during this period, what kid of returns would an investor see? Wound this just be bad years? And what would be your 3 f...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT
Replies: 52
Views: 3117

Re: REIT

I am confused about REITs. I currently have $20,000 in a Vanguard REIT ETF, adding $5,000 every few months for about a year. This was suggested as a way to get into real estate investing. The value was at the beginning, and still is, negative. Is there something I am missing? Why is it not gaining ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car
Replies: 34
Views: 3349

Re: Car Depreciation As Reason to Get A New Car

Just wanted to say thanks all for your thoughts and advice. Very much appreciated. Am going for my next servicing later in the week, so assuming no big problems on the horizon, I am more convinced now just to keep it for at least another few years ... I am sure that when I have kids, a two seater m...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham

Graham's default asset allocation was 50/50 and he said that regardless of market conditions everyone should be between 75/25 and 25/75. So never exit the market and never be without a cushion in bonds. Good luck! Harry Still Very sound advice. Alas stocks are as expensive as 1929 and bonds yield L...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham
Replies: 12
Views: 1302

Re: Securities in an Insecure World...Graham

Buy and hold no matter what. That hasn't worked so well since 1989 in Japan. True, but it worked out better than German bonds issued in 1922. The two situations are so different as to be basically an irrelevant comparison. German government bonds we're not overvalued In 1922 conversely The New demo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6030

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

Your inflation factor amounts to a x 6.44 increase in price. Lots of things would seem expensive, but if wages keep pace, they won't be in real terms. Bananas now cost $0.50/lb, inflates to $3.16/lb. Gallon of milk now costs $2.69, inflates to $17.35. Modest house in Austin, TX now costs $300k, inf...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6030

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

[quote=refinedchain post_id=3490905 time=1502640829 user_id=68862 Doesn't that seem... excessive? Yes indeed that does seem excessive. Anytime you compute future values that far into the future it is going to be a substantial increase. If you invested $400K in Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Class...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6030

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

I came across this report while trying to find estimates for the cost of healthcare in retirement: http://www.hvsfinancial.com/PublicFiles/2017_Retirement_Health_Care_Costs_Data_Report_FINAL_6.13_V2.pdf Key points: A 65 year old couple today can expect to spend $404,253 on lifetime Medicare-related...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?
Replies: 66
Views: 6030

Re: Expect to spend $2.6M on healthcare?

It simply makes no sense. MANY people live on Social Security with hardly any savings. This verifiable fact would seem to be in direct contradiction to the assertion of multiple millions. ? I understand that Medicare is the American programme that pays medical costs in retirement? Social Security i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 13, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LED bulbs for enclosed fixtures
Replies: 19
Views: 1944

Re: LED bulbs for enclosed fixtures

So, help me understand this. The problem related to using non-enclosure rated LED bulbs in a recessed (flush) ceiling fixture has to do with the lifespan of the bulb, and not excess heat creating a fire hazard? Am I understanding that correctly? I have been hesitant to use them because I thought I ...