Search found 30142 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using Canadian Pharmacies
Replies: 31
Views: 3348

Re: Using Canadian Pharmacies

I was under the impression that it's illegal to buy Rx drugs from other countries. If not, why aren't they bombarding us with ads for cheaper meds? If they did, I suspect the drug companies or the distributors would cut them off. Grey market is a funny old world. The drug companies will tolerate it...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 27
Views: 2923

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I am firm believer in reversion to the mean. I know wall street has given stocks the trump bump in hopes of lower taxes and less regulation. Based on historical norms the market is way over valued I wonder how long it will take till market reverts back to the mean a sell off must be coming soon i s...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1676

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Could you clarify? My impression is we have limited knowledge of when the next big NW quake & tsunami occurrs? In fact it is only since about 2000 that there has been a consensus that it occurred before, around 1700? Hi Value, The chart was predicting earthquakes in the next 10,000 years, not d...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3523

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My thoughts on time shares are similar to my thoughts on sexual slavery. Beautiful Russian girls are lured abroad by promises to become models, but once they commit they are done for. You are being lured by the time share models, but once you commit your money are done for. Victoria P.S. The expres...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3523

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

But saying that they're just bad investments entirely is nothing short of blind ignorance. What you say re resale is very interesting. Timeshares are like high fee active funds. One might get lucky (or skilful in your case). But the odds are very much against-- most of the factors you list are, by ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3523

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

dodgersummer wrote:I know very little about time shares, but see ads for them in Las Vegas. Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs?


The shows are real, but so too are the persuasive techniques. I would avoid them like the plague.
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3523

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

Oh yes, Glengarry Glen Ross (David Mamet) is an excellent film on the tactics of persuasion.

So is 12 Angry Men for that matter.

Any documentary on cult-like religious practices.
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 68
Views: 3523

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

I know very little about time shares, but see ads for them in Las Vegas. Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs? Generally the advice is against buying these things. Let me tell you a little from my (very limited) exposure to religious-type bra...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1676

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Hmm, going on a tangent here, but it's not often I get to use my geophysics education on this forum :beer I'm not convinced that the earthquake analogy is a good one. Predicting earthquakes is actually pretty easy, and we know much more about the underlying mechanics (which will apply also in the f...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return
Replies: 16
Views: 1841

Re: Reconciling history of nominal GDP vs. S&P 500 return

I saw an interview with John Bogle today, where he said he wasn't super bullish (my words) on stock returns since GDP is only 2%. This made me realize the relationship between stock returns and GDP was not at clear in my mind as I wanted it to be, so I dug up this old thread. Say we are ignoring th...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 13
Views: 1243

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

I don't hear a lot about P2P lending. Is that because it's not all that it's cracked up to be? What are your thoughts on this? Check threads. The short answer is the easy money has been made, and default rates are rising/ loan quality falling. Borrowers who need to keep borrowing to stay solvent ha...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017
Replies: 11
Views: 1087

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017

This is cool! Thank you! I was amazed (as the better-informed here will not be) that bond real returns have averaged 2%(ish) in virtually every country for the past 115 years (p. 17). Disappointing. That, and the fact that the UK actually has no tech sector (p. 9)?! Why is 2% real disappointing? Fo...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 5:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017
Replies: 11
Views: 1087

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017

So to answer your question in the previous 760 years of the last 1000 years, humanity had progressed very little. In the thousand years before that, there was no discernible progress. BobK Bob I think your definition of "progress" lacks a sense of history? Or perhaps I just don't understa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Malta
Replies: 9
Views: 1071

Re: Malta

I enjoyed the Operation Husky (Allied invasion of Sicily in 1943, HQ) museum which was at Eisenhower's real HQ. The prehistoric sites were fascinating. The local bus system made them very easy to reach. My late father was on a troopship in Valetta Harbour in 1948 on Christmas Day-- the noise of the ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Utility Bills - How do ours compare?
Replies: 37
Views: 2621

Re: Utility Bills - How do ours compare?

Electric: $0.95 just to keep account open (12.2kW solar system, but previous avg was 380 a month). Our system actually produces more than we use, so we received a small 'refund'. Interesting. Just curious, how much did it cost to install the solar system and what's the payoff period? It seems price...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The relation between stocks, bonds, and interest rates
Replies: 16
Views: 855

Re: The relation between stocks, bonds, and interest rates

If interest rates were rising (causing bonds to fall) and then the stock market suddenly crashed (which normally causes bonds to rise), how would bonds rise considering an environment where interest rates were on the rise? Thanks. You cannot predict these things BUT in a market crash - corporate bo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone here knowledgeable about heating degree days?
Replies: 9
Views: 625

Re: Anyone here knowledgeable about heating degree days?

Thank you! I'm far from an engineer so there's a limit to how far I'll go (and enjoy going) in testing some of these things. I'm going to start with doing a linear regression using the basic data I'm already collecting and see where I get with it over a period of time. Sounds like CDD will be much ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone own gold?
Replies: 52
Views: 2725

Re: Does anyone own gold?

Yes ~5%. Not at all popular in this forum though. I know that it yields nothing and I cannot eat it. I cannot eat my mutual funds either. Also, I don't own it for an end-of-the-world scenario ("I'd rather have lead and canned goods than gold when..." whatever the usual argument is). Howev...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Purchasing 1 acre, building custom home in Cedar Hills, Texas
Replies: 16
Views: 1170

Re: Purchasing 1 acre, building custom home in Cedar Hills, Texas

So I live in irving, texas and I just moved here for a job that pays 71k a year. Currently I am renting and my expenses are over $1300 a month in rent/utilities/gas/food etc. I don't like the housing costs of the city here as it seems very expensive and not owning much and I'd rather not rent. I'm ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone here knowledgeable about heating degree days?
Replies: 9
Views: 625

Re: Anyone here knowledgeable about heating degree days?

We recently moved into our first home. Being the financial nerd that I am, I already have a fairly detailed google spreadsheet set up to track our water / gas / electric usage and costs. It's set up so I can check our meters on my own every few days (or more/less often if I want) and estimate our m...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Dishwasher suggestions. LG Quad Wash vs???
Replies: 31
Views: 1390

Re: Dishwasher suggestions. LG Quad Wash vs???

Bosch 800 and 500 series with top 3rd shelf is very popular. New Bosch does not equal old Bosch, I'm told. Almost all dishwashers are disposable now -- irrespective of the lovely stainless interior and exterior. The exceptions, I learned, are Miele and Asko. We did our homework, went to buy a Bosch...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK retirement switch from mutual fund to index tracker
Replies: 4
Views: 270

Re: UK retirement switch from mutual fund to index tracker

Thanks for the import. Worth keeping in mind for sure that the fall in pound valuation has resulted in a rise in the FTSE 100. Also, I suppose it isn't a huge change in allocation between US and UK equity. I guess the last time would be that US shares seem more heated than UK shares when looking at...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 6275

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

3) US is big but not that big. It is now only ~24% of GDP according to worldbank and is actually one of the lowest trading countries of a respectable size wrt its GDP. I suspect these figures will go down over time and the rest of the world will be much bigger % of GDP and trade. According to the C...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

LadyGeek wrote:Please stay on-topic, which is the price of oil. Electrification of the rail industry is off-topic (starting to derail the thread).



yes rail electrification might lead to derailment ;-).
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

But $60 is not "low". Thanks for the post but if you look at when I wrote this it was this time last year and the price was just over $30. Ahh apologies. Didn't realize it was a restarted thread. The point still stands (to a lesser extent). We've seen oil at $10/bl in 1998. So say $15/bl ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Utility Bills - How do ours compare?
Replies: 37
Views: 2621

Re: Utility Bills - How do ours compare?

WIthout actual usage in kwhr of electricity and therms of gas, and the prices paid, it's very hard to compare even between 2 households in the same State (but different service territories). Cost without usage is not a very helpful number. You can also download Heating and Cooling Degree data for yo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 43
Views: 14949

Re: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?

Do the Ibbotson numbers give us historic performance back to the 19th century?

What are their calculations based upon?

I think the average yield of the US Treasury 10 year over the past 117 years or so should come pretty close to the average return.
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

Valuethinker: if the US, India, and China shifted car and rail to electric, and trucks to natural gas, what impact do you think that would have on the price of oil? I.e. oil was mainly used for transportation for ships and air in those markets. And assuming other emerging markets continued as is, t...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

Valuethinker: if the US, India, and China shifted car and rail to electric, and trucks to natural gas, what impact do you think that would have on the price of oil? I.e. oil was mainly used for transportation for ships and air in those markets. The effect on demand would be huge. Roughly half of US...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Markets Allocation
Replies: 34
Views: 3958

Re: Emerging Markets Allocation

agreed. VWO is the better buy. Country allocation is what gets me from doing any kind of tilting. I'm sorry, that's just risky to me. Granted, I am biased. They may thread the needle beautifully. I read somewhere that financial crises invariably happen after financial liberalization. China has libe...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

Allegedly, the world discovered one billion barrells of oil in 2016, but used 30 billion. It seems that today, commodities prices are set by short term traders. More by supply & demand. Consider. If I buy forward oil, someone sells it forward. Supply and demand on that forward date are in balan...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

What will probably lead to a price rise is a drop in supply. "Fracked" wells have a production lifetime of around five years, in contrast to 10-25 years for a conventionally drilled well. Most of the wells drilled in 2009 at the start of the "fracking" boom have already run dry....
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Limited Partnership?
Replies: 13
Views: 855

Re: Investment in Limited Partnership?

I was surprised to see that the REZ shares (visually) correlated with the DJIA (with DJIA jumping up in recent time) which suggests as glensos says, this is not an in-between investment. I was probably conflating predictable mortgage payments with rentals in my head. The income from the REITs is mo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Limited Partnership?
Replies: 13
Views: 855

Re: Investment in Limited Partnership?

I would not get involved in an LP unless i had money to burn. You are locked in. You could wind up paying high fees (2% pa over 10 years is a *lot* of money + the performance fee/ carry). You have no real control over what the GP/ manager does. No control over timing of realizations or income. Cert...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 19, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Exercising ISOs in a public company
Replies: 3
Views: 267

Re: Exercising ISOs in a public company

There are quite a few past posts regarding incentive stock options (ISOs), but not many that I could find for strategy if these options are held in a public company. I work for a company that was acquired by a Fortune 100, publicly traded company. It was an all-stock transaction. This meant that an...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?
Replies: 43
Views: 14949

Re: Challenge: Oldest BOND FUND in Morningstar?

1940-1980 was not good. The value of the dollar dropped 42% during that time period , and a lot of it rather suddenly at the end. I'm not sure what to make of the tax issue. The fact is small investors can shelter a lot of their investments today. And the fact is we do have TIPS today. The thing th...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

Allegedly, the world discovered one billion barrells of oil in 2016, but used 30 billion. It seems that today, commodities prices are set by short term traders. More by supply & demand. Consider. If I buy forward oil, someone sells it forward. Supply and demand on that forward date are in balan...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK retirement switch from mutual fund to index tracker
Replies: 4
Views: 270

Re: UK retirement switch from mutual fund to index tracker

Hi all, I am looking for some thoughts about my pension investments. I currently have two mutual fund pensions of £25k each with two different companies which both are pretty much the same and charge a ‘total’ of 1% (although who knows what they skim off on transaction charges, etc). They have 80% ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

I am wondering about the above. I think things like oil and gold are speculation. However, given todays super low price of oil, why are more people not pumping loads of money in. This is obviously a standard question, but would the boglehead mentality say that all information is currently priced in...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price
Replies: 59
Views: 4679

Re: Boglehead mentality re todays oil price

I bought a chunk of oil/natural gas commodity in January with "fun money" when i thought it was super low. It's been going great. :moneybag Wait no, actually it's continued to drop. :shock: And drop a lot at that. I'm in this for the long run and all but losing 20% off the top stings! Peo...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 18, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investment in Limited Partnership?
Replies: 13
Views: 855

Re: Investment in Limited Partnership?

My equity exposure has done well and I'm looking to rebalance. My allocation plan suggests I should move to fixed income investments, but I'm looking for something in-between. I was thinking that apartment rentals would provide more return in exchange for some risk. I started with the idea of buyin...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hydronic heating: radiant floor vs panels
Replies: 6
Views: 452

Re: Hydronic heating: radiant floor vs panels

We have hopes of purchasing a different home in our neighborhood in the near future, and have toured the home with the owner. It is in good shape for an older home, with forced air heat and central air. We currently have forced air heat, and are tired of the rapid on/off cycling and dry air during ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stock Market Fears
Replies: 55
Views: 5584

Re: Stock Market Fears

For many years now I have stayed the course, but lately I have begun to wonder if this is a wise plan. I recently read a post by a Boston economist who suggested moving everything to short-term Treasuries in anticipation of a market crash. My husband and I have considerable assets and right now are...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Iceland triggering second thoughts on foreign bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4027

Re: Iceland triggering second thoughts on foreign bonds?

astrohip wrote:It's taken 14 years for Argentina to move past their default in 2002.


EDIT - just realized this is a restart.
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irish resident: Bond investing in the case of a EURO collapse
Replies: 15
Views: 1018

Re: Irish resident: Bond investing in the case of a EURO collapse

Or might be overstating the fears. The UK's share of the ECB is around 16%, Germany 18%. By rights Germany should be up at 25% and after Brexit perhaps take on the UK's as well (be expanded to 40%). Are you using a metric here? (It's clearly not GDP, or population) The UK figure I quoted earlier wa...
by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 15, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irish resident: Bond investing in the case of a EURO collapse
Replies: 15
Views: 1018

Re: Irish resident: Bond investing in the case of a EURO collapse

Keeping the Irish bonds is a good idea in my opinion. You'll still shop for groceries in your new local currency and it'll be good if in volatile times the less volatile part of your portfolio is denominated in your currency. A way to hedge against a steep decline in the value of the new Irish curr...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.
Replies: 33
Views: 2057

Re: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.

arcticpineapplecorp - Sorry badly worded question. "What happens to the US and international markets when the stock market crashes?" - What I'm looking for is more what happens to the quality of life, what kind of changes corporate America faces and how a crash affects all socio-economic ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.
Replies: 33
Views: 2057

Re: Recommended books and resources to fully understand how the world stock market works.

The reason the stock market will continue to go up exponentially is because the advancement of production, organization of molecules in the universe, increases exponentially. (We are talking about the self-sustaining, advancing patterns of organization - organization is the opposite of entropy - th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Beta
Replies: 9
Views: 500

Re: Beta

Hi guys, What asset would you add to my current mix in order to reduce Beta? The best way to reduce beta is to hold more fixed income/ cash. So US Treasury bonds or bank CDs. Both have beta near zero. Investment grade corporate bonds beta is around 0.3 from memory. ibonds of course as well would ha...

Go to advanced search