Search found 32463 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1173

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

Challenge to statisticians: If markets are 100%, or 95%, or 90% "efficient", can you compute the odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund posting these annual returns since 1988? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box There i...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate? Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was workin...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Bogleheads: I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level. What has risen is property value and taxes. Best wishes. Taylor Taylor The official data for Miami is available: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltr...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

isnt inland (orlando) much safer from hurricanes? Not really. Orlando's been hit pretty hard. People in California have managed to deal with the earthquake situation. I think our building codes are similarly effective at hurricanes. Personally, I have never been affected or known anyone that was af...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

I live on the east coast of Florida about 1/4 mile from the ocean and my house is 12 ft AMSL. Throughout the 40 years I have lived here and during all the hurricanes and nor'easters we have experienced the ocean water has never come anywhere near my house. The closest was probably 1/4 mile minus 10...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1722

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

I appreciate the comments. We do have wills and trusts set up, including the provision of conversion to a special needs trust in the event of our deaths. Also in about a week I will be visiting a non profit firm that specializes in life planning for special needs people. I will get their advice and...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1722

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

I got a 20 year term policy a few years ago after my first child. My wife has a good job and health care if she needs it, so I just got it to pay off the house and kids college if needed. I pay $31 a month for $500,000. I work in a high risk field, so it's a good move for my family. My agent tried ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

I think one of the reasons for differences in opinions on international and currency exposure is their base frame of reference. What do I mean by this - those that see exposure to other currency variation as of no value, and only negative added volatility are measuring their situation based on a vi...
by Valuethinker
Tue Oct 17, 2017 3:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to learn about financial statement analysis?
Replies: 17
Views: 1189

Re: How to learn about financial statement analysis?

I am becoming interested in financial statements - it's actually quite fun when you begin to see how things fit together within a statement or across different statements. I remember when I was at university people thought that accountancy is really boring, but it doesn't seem to be that way to me ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the UK as non-resident
Replies: 3
Views: 268

Re: Investing in the UK as non-resident

Thank you very much for the advice, Valuethinker. I believe that the sunk cost fallacy you mentioned applies very much to my situation and I will consider repatriating my remaining GBP savings to my Euro account and invest it in Germany. If negotiations w the EU go better than expected the currency...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tanzania
Replies: 7
Views: 576

Re: Tanzania

I am in the early stages of planning a trip to Tanzania next year to hike Mt. Kilimanjaro then go on safari. A search of Bogleheads indicates that some posters have done this in the past, so I'm wondering if anyone has recommendations. What tour operator did you choose? Zara seems to be everywhere ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

...The ideal investor is globally weighted as to equity markets... I don't think this is true. I think that the textbook analyses that show that "the market portfolio is mean-variance optimum" assume a single currency. If you imagine a Euro investor and a U.S. investor, each with a portfolio consis...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How many miles/years do you keep your car?
Replies: 99
Views: 5647

Re: How many miles/years do you keep your car?

New car - 5 - 8 years. Have had Hondas for years until I bought my first Subaru Outback. Love it, and will love it for another 5 - 8 years unless one of my grandsons gets it first. Then maybe I'll buy...drum roll...my LAST car? Does anyone think that way? :-) Daisy Dog My father did. He typically k...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

Generally investing in currencies is held to be zero sum. You get increased volatility, for no extra return. Do you have any idea why that is the case? Just looking at some historical performance, it appears to be very time dependent. I would agree that if you averaged in on many investors over ver...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

One other thought. In theory one should hold a percentage of foreign stocks to get the maximum mean grievance portfolio. I am bedevilled by the autocorrect on my pad, so I am guessing you fell prey to the same gremlin? I am loving the mean grievance portfolio though? The one that hurts you the leas...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

In practice, the more volatile the currency pair, the greater the cost of hedging. I am going to have to disagree with you here. You hedge by entering into forward contracts and their cost is basically zero. The forward price is driven by interest rate differentials between the 2 currencies. The bi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston
Replies: 35
Views: 6201

Re: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston

A 1 in 100 year flood means it happens about every 33 years. People don't understand probability Maybe you're thinking of a related issue: "The 1-percent AEP flood has a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year; however, during the span of a 30-year mortgage, a home in the 1-percent AEP (100...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1722

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

I only bought term life insurance after my first child was born. Still have it, although I let one policy expire as my kids grow older. In the next few years I will either have to let it expire or will renew in my late 50's. The only reason I will consider renewing is because we have a special need...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1722

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

Hi all. I have consulted a few different life insurance companies. And all have a different approach we should take. We are in our 30's. What is the best solution for life insurance for young adults? We only want to pay a few dollars a month for each of us. Thank you. Do you have an insurable need?...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 39
Views: 1745

Re: Currency risk?

Can someone explain why currency risk is used to justify a lower allocation to foreign investments by US investors? And is this justification common among non-US investors for underweighting US equities? For instance, do Chinese, European, Japanese, or Brazilian investors overweight their home coun...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3169

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). I've just come across this article, in which the things that puzzled me...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Earplugs that work on low frequency noise?
Replies: 35
Views: 1762

Re: Earplugs that work on low frequency noise?

All I can say is my neighbor really liked to run a gas powered leaf blower almost every weekend afternoon all fall (somehow I manage to get the same job done in about 4 hours/year). It was loud enough to wake me up from a cherished weekend nap, seems like every time I dozed off (I sleep about 5 hou...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 2956

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

CDs are a good alternative for the "safe" portfolio. While the TIPS fund is good to have I don't include it in my Dr. Bernstein's concept of having 20* years in safe products. You are correct that it is somewhat volatile. In my "safe" portfolio I have short term bond funds and no loss of principal ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds v. bond funds
Replies: 36
Views: 1858

Re: Bonds v. bond funds

I understand what Inam reading but can’t get past the Ihebhundreds of time I read that Funds carry different risk than individual bonds. The latter, diversification risk and the former, the risk that bonds aren’t held to maturity. I suppose the latter risk is meaningless if due to redemptions and o...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 2956

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

The biggest concern I personally have about CDs is that even though it has basically never happened, I think there is a chance that if interest rates rise really sharply, banks might begin denying early withdrawals from CDs. For decades now everybody has believe that CDs are just like demand deposi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the UK as non-resident
Replies: 3
Views: 268

Re: Investing in the UK as non-resident

Hi all, I worked for a year in the UK and have a substantial amount of savings been sitting in an account earning no interest for the past few years. I currently work in Germany and I would like to put that money to work now. Pre-brexit I transferred some of it to my Euro account, but I bet on a sl...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wireless ear buds-Bone conduction headphones
Replies: 7
Views: 597

Re: Wireless ear buds-Bone conduction headphones

Hello I have a really hard time finding ear buds that stay in my ear. The Apple ear buds don't stay in at all. I recently tried the Bose wireless ear buds and they stay in but I didn't love the thickness of the piece that sticks out from the ear. Jaybirds didn't sound good and slipped off easily. R...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS
Replies: 24
Views: 2956

Re: Why not CDs instead of Short Term Bonds or TIPS

In my 401k, I maintain some of my "safe" portfolio. This typically consists of taxable bond funds, TIPS funds, etc. This is part of my LP. Larry would of course recommend TIPS or ST Treasuries as part of this allocation. I recognize that TIPS are to protect from "unexpected" inflation. Of course, t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Florida is not over, but I would seriously consider the location before buying a house or apartment there or anywhere else that is subject to frequent floods or other natural disasters, erosion, etc. I would not consider buying a house in a likely flood zone unless it were elevated nor would I cons...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Florida Over, 2017
Replies: 48
Views: 5457

Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate? Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was workin...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My First Portfolio [Australia]
Replies: 3
Views: 171

Re: My First Portfolio [Australia]

Hello All, First time poster. New to investing. To give you all a little background here is a brief overview of my current financial situation: Age : 21, full time student - 30hrs a week part time work. I live in inner city Melbourne, Australia incase that is relevant. Debt : $0 Income : $700-750 a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa
Replies: 28
Views: 2993

Re: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa

I was doing my quarterly AA checkup and it seems all my asset classes have increased in value - stocks (US), stocks (international), bonds, even gold (GLD). I am curious if that has happened before. I am also curious if there is any asset class that I don't have which isn't correlated with the abov...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa
Replies: 28
Views: 2993

Re: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa

If every type of investment goes up then more money is being spent on investments of all types. That money must come from someplace, so doesn't that imply that cash deposits are reduced, or that debt is increased, or that the money supply is raised? No. Prices of financial assets are set at the mar...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuities - how does insurance company know you died?
Replies: 49
Views: 2590

Re: Annuities - how does insurance company know you died?

. So, in my grandma Sue example, she did not commit fraud because she did not commit a deceptive act, and she did not form the intent to deceive. Do you seriously suggest that the insurance company in that situation would attempt to prosecute grandma Sue for fraud? I believe that is called the Mens...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BitConnect [Cryptocurrency]
Replies: 10
Views: 740

Re: BitConnect [Cryptocurrency]

There are plenty of legitimate cryptocurrencies Why do you think some crypto's are "more legitimate" than the infinite amount of others that can be created? I don't recommend that anyone invest in cryptocurrencies. I can see all kinds of problems with these as "investments". I think of them as gamb...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 80
Views: 6500

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

What amazes me is that an educated body of economic thinkers had a hard time accepting that people don't always make rational economic decisions :oops: People go for a free dinner and end up buying a timeshare they don't need and can't afford, people who are thrifty their whole life and then send a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to diversify investments
Replies: 9
Views: 844

Re: Looking to diversify investments

Thanks for the help so far! I'd ideally like to keep it down to two funds so one broad based international fund that covers both developed and emerging markets - that way I can actually contribute in a meaningful way to them. I'll read through the pdf, thanks for pointing me that way. My Vanguard a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need Embassy Row Map in PDF
Replies: 7
Views: 1033

Re: Need Embassy Row Map in PDF

I need a PDF map that shows where all the embassies are in Washington, DC and Google couldn't find me one. Does anyone know where I can get one? I don't want interactive map. TIA. I wonder in the post 9-11 world if that information is actually still out there? It seems trivial that it would be, but...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Canada] Brokerage account recommendation
Replies: 3
Views: 202

Re: [Canada] Brokerage account recommendation

Hi bogleheads! My sis and I convinced our dad to switch out of BMO Canada Dividend fund (MER 1.8% :shock: :shock: :shock: ) into a Canadian version of Vanguard ETF (either FTSE Canada Index ETF or FTSE Canada All Caps Index ETF) My main question is what is a good basic discount brokerage to hold th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston
Replies: 35
Views: 6201

Re: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston

It's a very sad situation overall. Many of these homes have been flooded three years in a row. The solution is to raise them onto piers above the base flood elevation level, but that is expensive and many of the homeowner's don't have the resources to do so. When most of these homes were built, the...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A year of currency risk [Euro investers]
Replies: 4
Views: 433

Re: A year of currecny risk [Euro investers]

Just my opinion after having had money in Euros for a long time for personal reasons, but planning financial activity around the exchange rate is speculation, not investing. Investing is when you have some sort of story about the underlying variations in value. If you can describe why the exchange ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in private companies
Replies: 31
Views: 1834

Re: Investing in private companies

Please read here: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accreditedinvestor.asp. An entity is an accredited investor if it is a private business development company or an organization with assets exceeding $5 million. An organization cannot be formed with a sole purpose of purchasing specific securiti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annuities - how does insurance company know you died?
Replies: 49
Views: 2590

Re: Annuities - how does insurance company know you died?

Let's assume you buy a single premium indexed annuity (SPIA) which pays you each month for the rest of your life. I assume in most cases the payment is made by automatic ACH transfer to your bank account each month. My question is this...how does the insurance company know when you die in order to ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3169

Re: Why do 10-yrs US Treasuries have a higher yield than European Junk Bonds?

The currency forward rate is not a forecast of future exchange rates. It is the cost of locking in a future exchange rate now. It is a poor predictor of future exchange rates (a guess that they will not change performs better). I've just come across this article, in which the things that puzzled me...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 172
Views: 18187

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

But isn't comparing SRRIX to the stock of reinsurance companies missing the point? An investment in SRRIX is exposure to returns and risks of only the profits and losses of the insurance underwriting. The quotas it holds are like profit/loss sharing contracts. Whereas investing in BRK or Munich Re ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 BMW X1 purchase
Replies: 14
Views: 1123

Re: 2017 BMW X1 purchase

My comment is the setup in European cars is very different from Japanese models, if you have enjoyed your Japanese cars in the past make sure the BMW is for you. Not saying one is better than the other just that they are different and usually drivers have a preference of one versus the other. Preci...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sabbatical Money
Replies: 6
Views: 861

Re: Sabbatical Money

Hi, Bogleheads. I'm thinking of doing sabbatical for probably 6-12 months 5 years from now. I need probably at least $20 - $25K. I started saving for it but my APY in saving account sucks. What's the better option? I'm depositing certain $$$ per paycheck. Thanks. One invests according to one's inve...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2017 BMW X1 purchase
Replies: 14
Views: 1123

Re: 2017 BMW X1 purchase

I am considering the purchase of a 2017 BMW X1 AWD from my local BMW dealership. This is a leftover 2017 model with approximately 4000 miles on it. The car was used by the dealership as a loaner car for BMW customers having vehicles serviced at the dealership. The vehicle comes with a 3 year, 36,00...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to diversify investments
Replies: 9
Views: 844

Re: Looking to diversify investments

I suggest in your TSP account including a fixed income allocation, using either the G Fund, F Fund, or a combination of the two. At age 27 I suggest around 20% in bonds. That is expected to substantially reduce portfolio volatility (risk) with only a relatively small impact on portfolio performance...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4170

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

Speaking of the Great Recession, anybody know of a good book that covers what happened at the beginning? Watch the movie "The Big Short"....GREAT movie, and it explains a lot! The documentary " Inside Job" is also good (Matt Damon narrates). It has been criticized for its slant and for being unfair...