Search found 27454 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

T Can someone help educate me: if the world is a closed system and we own all the companies market weighted, how does oil price reduction, decrease corporate profits? I am not seeing it. Shouldn't it just lead to higher profits in other industries? If oil producers are quoted companies, and oil con...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

What I cannot remember for the life of me is whether Canadian and US coins weigh the same. Hence vending machines etc.

Of course we have Loonies and Toonies -- has the dollar coin finally made it big in the USA?
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

Americans will also be aware that many countries in Central and Latin America welcome USD or have "dollarized"-- also the Carribean. Perhaps also in Asia though I know less about it. Middle East perhaps less so than previously, but up there with Euros. It's really only in the periphery of ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

In my opinion it is disrespectful to go to Canada and expect businesses and individuals to accept US dollars. In the US only a few places within a few miles of the border will accept Canadian dollars at any exchange rate at all. Why do we expect them to take ours? Just go to Canada, stop at an ATM,...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

Lord knows I'm over my head here, but I wonder if it's a timing thing. If you're speculating on energy sector stocks and have valued them assuming oil would stay above $100/bbl ('God isn't making any more oil'), and then it drops and you start to think the new shale oil extraction technology might ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

It's not clear to me how much of a barrier the ZLB might be. Whether or not monetary policy is effective is far from settled. Promises to keep rates low for extended periods, having a higher inflation target, viewing the inflation target as a target rather than a ceiling, level targeting rather tha...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

This was well flagged by people like Paul Krugman in his blog. As I explained, if you use a simple Keynesian model of the economy, a price reduction in oil would inflict symmetric and opposite effects on oil producers and consumers. BUT if you are at the Zero Interest Rate Lower Bound, the expansio...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2 Trillion Valuation
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: $2 Trillion Valuation

We should mention the Tyrell Corporation in this discussion ;-).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/20 ... af7643475f
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2 Trillion Valuation
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: $2 Trillion Valuation

Seriously curious, is there anything stopping a company growing to $2 Trillion valuation, or $3T for that matter, if their earnings become so large to justify it? Note also that a company that big would attract a lot of anti-competition authority attention. So it could be Google, but a more highly ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2 Trillion Valuation
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: $2 Trillion Valuation

I have read that Saudi Aramco was potentially going public. That company would likely have a valuation near or over 1 trillion I believe. Bloomberg says $2.5 trillion. Their reserves are 10x Exxon Mobil's, and even at current valuations, XOM has a 331B market cap. Look at Gazprom though, which is p...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Politics and Investing Don't Mix"
Replies: 23
Views: 1987

Re: "Politics and Investing Don't Mix"

I wonder what investors in the Russian stock market in 1915 thought about politics and investing not mixing? :) As they were in a war which turned out to be about the survival of their whole politico-economic system, not much I suspect. By 1915 it must have been clear things were not going well aga...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

On the copper v. oil thing, of course oil is *consumed*. We can recycle/ reuse copper. If the price of copper goes up, then so does the amount recycled. Price of oil goes up, mostly all we can do is find more efficient ways of consuming it (either travel and ship less, or replace capital equipment w...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

Armchair economics - we will celebrate/gripe about gas prices way before anything else because it is so visual on the signs at gas stations. No other commodity is that closely followed by Joe and Susy Public. From what I recall, the price of a barrel of oil was not a local news blip until the early...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

The Energy & its trading is enormous, being the #1 trade item worldwide. :oops: Why :oops:? Coffee is the #2 trade item and I tend to doubt a drop in coffee prices would provoke this sort of discussion. The question seems to be whether oil is more a cause or an effect. That it's traded a lot do...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

I still think it is because a large number of 'dumb' analysts thing 'low oil demand' = recession. And want to dump their stock if there is a recession. I am personally not worried about a recession, and I am waiting for Mr. Market to make up his mind....that cheap oil is aok. Calculated Risk is the...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

The Energy & its trading is enormous, being the #1 trade item worldwide. :oops: Why :oops:? Coffee is the #2 trade item and I tend to doubt a drop in coffee prices would provoke this sort of discussion. The question seems to be whether oil is more a cause or an effect. That it's traded a lot do...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $2 Trillion Valuation
Replies: 12
Views: 1128

Re: $2 Trillion Valuation

Seriously curious, is there anything stopping a company growing to $2 Trillion valuation, or $3T for that matter, if their earnings become so large to justify it? No. Not at all. BUT A company cannot grow its profits faster than total global profits for private companies, forever. Eventually all ot...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

Personally I am puzzled by this as well. I remember that rising prices due to the Arab oil embargo had a terrible effect on the economy. The discussion was that rising oil prices ripple through almost all goods through the cost of transporting raw materials and finished products, resulting in very ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

In theory there should be winners and losers with the decline of oil/gas prices which would offset one another, at least IMO. Winners are consumers and loser are energy producing companies and countries. However, it seems more complicated than that. One way I try to understand this (albeit very imp...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

I covered all of Canada for one company or another from 1994 till about 2002. I used my credit card for almost all of my purchases. If I thought I'd need cash, I'd exchange at the hotel. Usually, I'd end up using my leftover currency to pay the beginning of my hotel bill and finish it up on the cre...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Canada on sale? [Currency exchange rate vs. USD]
Replies: 14
Views: 1734

Re: Is Canada on sale?

I have been there briefly a couple times in the last couple years and I would say that the cost of expenses is roughly the same in CAD. It has been my experience that when exchange rates change the cost of items in a country for most consumers does not change. If you would like to go to Canada (or ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Canada on sale? [Currency exchange rate vs. USD]
Replies: 14
Views: 1734

Re: Is Canada on sale?

Wonder why I didn't think of this before! I have been observing the Canadian dollar dropping from near (or above) parity when we visited a couple of years ago, to now where it is at about 70 (US) cents. My question is whether the price of most tourist expenses has stayed the same or gone up (in Can...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

In my opinion it is disrespectful to go to Canada and expect businesses and individuals to accept US dollars. In the US only a few places within a few miles of the border will accept Canadian dollars at any exchange rate at all. Why do we expect them to take ours? Just go to Canada, stop at an ATM,...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?
Replies: 66
Views: 3692

Re: Why has Oil become such a dominant market influencer?

I suspect part of the answer is that oil is a larger part of the US economy than it was in recent past. About 5 years ago or so, oil production in the US increased dramatically as a result of technology improvements that allowed certain types of drilling to be economical. The increased production c...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Australian Super Question
Replies: 2
Views: 246

Re: Australian Super Question

Hi all, Thanks for being so helpful with the forum! I have a question regarding franking credits and asset allocation in Australian super funds. My taxable portfolio is 25k through vanguard Etfs: 30% Aus 30% World ex US (Includes EM) 30% US 10% Cash My deferred 6k: 20% Aus 75% World (Not including ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7108

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

mouses wrote:Plastic is evil.


Yes but lightbulbs lasting 17,000 hours are never going to be a big part of our solid waste.

They now charge 5p (7.5 cents) for plastic bags in our large chain stores and supermarkets. And usage is reported to be down by 80%+
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7108

Re: My business case for LEDs

Also, there is no need to stockpile LEDs when they go on sale. They will only get cheaper. I predict that incandescents will get more expensive until they are outlawed. What would Thomas Edison think? L. Edison of all people would recognize the necessity of technological change. A cosy duopoly betw...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7108

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

So, I actually have LED's in almost every fixture in my house now. Once I found a 2700K 60 watt that felt like incandescent lighting I went all in. My stash is for in the future. When incandescent bulbs are impossible to find, I'll have loads of them.....for sale on eBay! I'm figuring this into my ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 2430

Re: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?

There's a range of multiples of expenditure out there we are suggesting me (40x), Grt2b (33x) some 20-25x. I will state fairly uncategorically that you cannot, at today's interest rates, maintain a lifestyle for 50+ years on a 4% withdrawal rate (ie 25x). I haven't run the numbers on a Monte Carlo s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension options vs. Term Life policy
Replies: 15
Views: 1050

Re: Pension options vs. Term Life policy

Many thanks to all for your thoughts and words of wisdom. This forum is a wonderful resource and I am grateful for it and for its contributors. If the pension is CPI indexed then take the survivor benefit (assuming your beneficiary has no length of life issues ie seriously life shortening condition...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

Very few merchants in Canada are likely to take US dollars except for the ones that cater to tourists that are near the border and they will give you a terrible exchange rate. You should not have any problem exchanging the US dollars for Canadian Dollars at some place like a bank in Canada. You wil...
by Valuethinker
Mon Feb 08, 2016 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Canadian dollar
Replies: 19
Views: 1396

Re: Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar is down against the US dollar. Should I buy Canadian dollars now for a planned visit to Canada in September, or should I wait and buy the Canadian dollars in September? I have Euros and US dollars. I will be returning to Europe this week. Should I exchange the US dollars to Euro...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard International High Yield Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 603

Re: Vanguard International High Yield Fund

It's not likely that the International Dividend fund (confusing name btw) will offer diversification benefits ie these will be inferior to a total international fund. If the goal is to "ration" spending to dividends, then that works, as long as the tax position is not too disadvantageous. ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 2430

Re: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?

Hello everyone just seeing what your opinions are on my retirement goal, and also any advice or tip for future investment. Me: 28 single, income 150k, 28% bracket, been working 5 years. I max out 401k every year with 4% match its at 100k currently. 70% with S&p 500, 20% with russel small cap, 1...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 2430

Re: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?

Employees who had a large percentage of their net worth in Enron were convinced that was a great idea too. Oh Lord, that scene in the Smartest Guys in the Room, in front of all the employees, about buying the stock. And the utility lineman (my Dad worked in utilities, it is one b** of a job, -20 de...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?
Replies: 22
Views: 2430

Re: is it realistic for me to retire in 15 years?

Stock account. 5 5k in current company stock, invested 10k and got lucky. I believe the company is very strong so I will kept it for longterm . , 45k with various individual stock, etf, and reit. will eventually liquidate these and put them with vanguard index. If it were me, I wouldn't have much i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension options vs. Term Life policy
Replies: 15
Views: 1050

Re: Pension options vs. Term Life policy

The payout reduction you noted seems reasonable and in line with the difference between a joint and single annuity if the rates at immediateannuities.com are accurate. That $1 million term life policy will cost, what, $400-500/mo? So you net $150/mo and create a potential big hole for when you turn...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension options vs. Term Life policy
Replies: 15
Views: 1050

Re: Pension options vs. Term Life policy

When I retire from teaching at 57 I can collect half my salary at the Maximum option. If I choose an option that includes a beneficiary, my monthly amount is reduced, but my beneficiary will continue to receive the same reduced amount if I pass first. Under the same reduced option, if my beneficiar...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1090

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

ETFs of corporate bonds have serious problems due to the decline in liquidity of the corporate bond market.

It's one area I would be more comfortable using a fund.

Government bonds there's less of an issue because US Treasuries are so liquid.
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index
Replies: 21
Views: 1090

Re: Enhancing Yield with adjustments to the Total Bond Index

Didn't Vangaurd try to "enhance" the yield of Total Bond index 15-20 years ago by increasing exposure to corporate bonds, then suffered some nasty losses in the early 2000s leading to Total Bond underperforming its benchmark by quite a bit? I can confirm they got hit badly in 2000 -- I th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard International High Yield Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 603

Re: Vanguard International High Yield Fund

I thought I had read that Vanguard is opening a new fund. The Vanguard International High Yield Fund. Does anybody know what the status of that is. If Vanguard doesn't have an offering does anybody recommend another fund companies International High Yield Fund? Is this not a HY bond fund? If so, th...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7108

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

Were/are people really replacing their incandescent bulbs once a year? I don't think so. It very much depends. I replaced all my halogens with LEDs, and say a [EDIT actually 40 kwhr pcm or about £6.00 USD 10.00] drop in consumption (50 watt bulbs down to 6 watts). So yes, we really were doing 1000+...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global debt, global growth, and expected returns
Replies: 13
Views: 1259

Re: Global debt, global growth, and expected returns

Bad debt and poorly allocated capital may be a detriment to growth, but I don't otherwise understand articles stressing the world's high debt level. When calculated globally, I thought net financial leverage always equaled zero : for every measure of debt there is an equal measure of savings. Yes. ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global debt, global growth, and expected returns
Replies: 13
Views: 1259

Re: Global debt, global growth, and expected returns

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/04/business/dealbook/toxic-loans-in-china-weigh-on-global-growth.html?_r=0 I have wondered about this a long time. If household debt is a drag on a household's ability to save (and invest), aren't very high levels of global debt likely to impact global savings, invest...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is up with Tech Industry?
Replies: 4
Views: 975

Re: What is up with Tech Industry?

LNKD, FB etc. what is with the major puke yesterday? LNKD closed at -44% I believe. http://www.reuters.com/article/linkedin-results-research-idUSKCN0VE1N0 reported significantly lower revenue growth expectations, and the market downgraded all the social media stocks. The prices got just too high re...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 06, 2016 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)
Replies: 94
Views: 7108

Re: The Coming Boglehead Zombie Apocalypse (LED bulbs)

We are behind the times, have no LED bulbs, have no problems. Barring some revolution in incandescent technology, incandescent bulbs will be almost unobtainable within 10 years: I have seen forecasts of 90% LEDs within 5 years (working from memory) which I thought a bit extreme. Given that incandes...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Private equity investment
Replies: 5
Views: 709

Re: Private equity investment

I'm likely going to be making a private equity investment soon. Does anyone have experience with those? Any gotchas to watch out for? Has anyone tried sharespost.com? I don't think secondmarket.com sells shares any more. http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/research%20reports%20and%20covers...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2363

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

Let's put it this way. 3% cap rate is very low by historic standards. If we face ongoing deflation or near deflation, that's going to look OK. Otherwise RE looks expensive by any yardstick. It is not an undervalued asset class. I don't see robust rental growth in a low inflation environment. The bra...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2363

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

I agree that the allocation of 10-15% of a portfolio to TREA is reasonable. I also agree that the bicoastal strategy of their property holdings is concerning, but they do have a "southern" concentration as well. Should also be mentioned that they've dallied with some international propert...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)
Replies: 29
Views: 2363

Re: TIAA Re Acct. B/S & performance (Jan)

So, 3% pa returns. Maybe 5-6% gross with a fair wind. Of course equities are not likely to do much better, either. thanks. does the 3% cap rate translate to nominal returns or real returns? if it means 3% real returns, then is that where the 5-6% gross figure comes from? 3% yield on an asset class ...

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