Search found 28123 matches

by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 12:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: remodel: energy-independent house!
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: remodel: energy-independent house!

Wall insulation is as critical as attic insulation in an extreme environment. I doubt a 1950s ranch house has much in terms of wall insulation. I would start by getting an audit of all the thermal leaks in the walls, attic, windows, etc. and getting that patched up. It should help a great deal in r...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: remodel: energy-independent house!
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: remodel: energy-independent house!

Wall insulation is as critical as attic insulation in an extreme environment. I doubt a 1950s ranch house has much in terms of wall insulation. I would start by getting an audit of all the thermal leaks in the walls, attic, windows, etc. and getting that patched up. It should help a great deal in r...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying the Retirement House
Replies: 16
Views: 1053

Re: Buying the Retirement House

4. Other questions I’m not thinking of….. Your time frames seem quite short to me. I'd simplify and rent a place, until you figure out where you want to live. Buying for the short term is usually more expensive. Decorating, Real estate selling fees, maint etc. I didn't explain it, but we plan on ge...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 23
Views: 1553

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

In investing in US Mortgage Backed Securities (Agency securities) one has to have an understanding of prepayment and extension risk, negative convexity. Note Agency securities have no credit risk, whereas private label ones *do*. Prepayment risks are controlled for non US MBS. Michael Lewis in Liar'...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Japan: inflation came in very low, well below the Bank of Japan (Japan's central bank) target and below market expectations. The BOJ did nothing at today's meeting. That's because there is underlying inflation. Right now it's just masked, in aggregate, by low oil prices, but anyone who has lived he...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in Africa
Replies: 11
Views: 575

Re: Investing in Africa

I am thinking about doing direct investing in Africa thru an account over there. Does anyone have any experience with investing directly in another country? Is it safe? I'm thinking the upside could be worth it. Safe? You have to be joking. Of course it's not safe. The continent is rife with enviro...
by Valuethinker
Sun May 01, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: remodel: energy-independent house!
Replies: 14
Views: 821

Re: remodel: energy-independent house!

Dear Bogleheads! I am excited to put the topic of energy independent house for the discussion. Would love to hear your ideas, personal experience, anything that could make us work towards the goal of energy independence, "greener future"! I look at this as one step closer to my freedom - ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Start ups and how would you invest today
Replies: 1
Views: 215

Re: Start ups and how would you invest today

I have 70 usd to invest but not sure how to allocate it in today's volatile stock market and low interest rate. My usual investment approach is 80 in stocks (voo sp500 mostly) and 20 in bonds using dollar averaging by investing 5000 - 8000 usd monthly With 70k one off investment and overall market ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

However, LC doesn't sell you the loan. It takes your money, and you are an unsecured creditor of Lending Club. If you owned the note, it would be held in trust, in a bankrupt remote entity, and possibly with cash collateral. See the image below and you can see it is not. The loan stops with LC. s[/...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

Everyone understands that retail "investors" don't own the payment streams from borrowers, right? The first question in lending is... Who is the counterparty...? I bet it's not who you thinks it is with P2P lending. Many believe that they are buying the note and the credit risk is with th...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

Over the first year my net return was 8.1%. In the following months my returns increased with 1 month giving a 10% net return after defaults and fees. Recently the returns have fallen due to an increase in defaults, particularly with the more risky loans, to an annual average of 5% with an average ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

tbh, I would rather buy a levered FI CEF before I would buy a managed P2P Loan Mutual Fund. I totally agree with you.These P2P loans have not been through a down cycle yet. That is the key. And whether there is leverage here (on the lender side?) that we cannot see. That's when you get shockwaves o...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

The subprime loan debacle resulted from a massive housing inventory surplus driven by speculative building due to rising home prices and minimal down payments. When the bubble burst, housing prices fell dramatically and construction essentially stopped. The resulting layoff of construction workers ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Apr 30, 2016 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone try Solar Bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 620

Re: Anyone try Solar Bonds?

I would agree that solar bonds may not be a risk that is adequately rewarded. Conceptually, however, the source of revenue from "green energy" is unique. Harvesting cash from the sun, wind, or efficiency upgrades. In some ways isn't this fundamentally more reliable that income from the go...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Atlanta in August -- worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 2109

Re: Atlanta in August -- worth it?

Crimsontide wrote:They have air conditioning you know...


If you ever read Frank Herbert's Dune, I was suddenly thinking of still suits... you could walk around fine, then ;-).
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Atlanta in August -- worth it?
Replies: 46
Views: 2109

Re: Atlanta in August -- worth it?

I've gone to Atlanta every Labor Day weekend for the past 10 years for a nerd convention. The weather is always pretty miserable (and the traffic is unbearable), but the convention is great. If there's something specific you want to see or experience, I'd say do it. Otherwise enjoy having the house...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Worth it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2571

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Thank you for the post. You are obviously way ahead of me in financial analysis! You're going to have to dumb this down for me. What is the chart telling me as regards whether to hold Int. funds in retirement? One viewpoint I heard is that if you have the Total Stock fund, you already have exposure...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Worth it?
Replies: 27
Views: 2571

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

just got through the 29 pages, whew, that was a ride. very informative and helpful. one question that has been nagging throughout was the inclusion of int'l stock. correct me if i am wrong, but it appears that the inclusion of int'l stock is mostly to control risk through further diversification (i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Occupied - (10 episodes) https://netflixtvshowsreview.com/2016/01/occupied-tv-series-norways-political-thriller-on-netflix/ We started watching Occupied, currently up to episode 3. My only complaint is not understanding the language and having to turn on captions and read the lines. Seems like a ve...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Nicolas wrote:Wolf Hall -- Six part mini-series from BBC. Historical drama of court life in 1500-1538 England. So good!


And more of Mark Rylance, who won the Oscar for "Bridge of Spies" ;-).
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Just got finished with Happy Valley. It's BBC,so subtitles are needed. 2 nations divided by a common language ;-). You mean it's set in Texas, so subtitles are needed ;-). "Muy bad" had me baffled for months ;-). I don't generally find Yorkshire difficult (living in London) although they ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone try Solar Bonds?
Replies: 7
Views: 620

Re: Anyone try Solar Bonds?

In these low interest rate environments it seems like all kinds of personal finance articles start flying around for alternative fixed income investments. The main one I have read about lately has been P2P loans, which there seems to be mixed feelings about. I recently came across an article on Sol...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: University of Virginia vs University of Miami
Replies: 130
Views: 7562

Re: University of Virginia vs University of Miami

The addendum to all this would be another decision if my son gets into a school for which he is currently on the waitlist - Vanderbilt or Washington University in St Louis. Unless they have special academic strengths (I know very little about either: Washington U had a world famous economist and No...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost bought an individual stock today...
Replies: 43
Views: 3047

Re: Almost bought an individual stock today...

Funny I almost did too. Coincidently read an article on BBC that said the head of Amazon was invested heavily in a company called General Fusion working on fusion power technology. Couldn't find a ticker symbol though. Must not be publicly traded. I then got bored and did something else. If you hav...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost bought an individual stock today...
Replies: 43
Views: 3047

Re: Almost bought an individual stock today...

Yesterday I was in a breakfast meeting led by my company's CEO. Small group of people. I'm at a large global company...it was quite an experience to hear our CEO speak candidly about life, business, etc. When the topic of our competitor Amazon came up, one thing he casually said is "I don't kn...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which bond ETF should I choose? [NED]
Replies: 3
Views: 268

Re: Which bond ETF should I choose? [NED]

Hello Bogleheads, currently i'm starting my investing journey at a new broker which is significantly cheaper than my previous one. So I also had to make some changes in the ETF's I want in my portfolio. I'm doubting about one of the following bond ETF's but I don't know why I should choose a partic...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Understanding Bond Movement With Interest Rates
Replies: 20
Views: 1292

Re: Understanding Bond Movement With Interest Rates

As per previous poster you'd need to look at the move of the 17 year rate, which was much less dramatic.

.
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

I put some "play money" at Lending Club, in a taxable account, mostly as an experiment. The emails that I now get from Lending Club are interesting, in a concerning manner. They are marketing themselves to "Financial Advisors" to help their clients "diversify". And the...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

I know some who buy many LendingClub/P2P loans and think they've diversified away risk, but it reminds me of subprime MBS - a bunch of junk is still going to be junk when we hit a recession. I think the risk is more similar to a junk bond crash than the subprime credit debacle. For one, if the P2P ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

I know some who buy many LendingClub/P2P loans and think they've diversified away risk, but it reminds me of subprime MBS - a bunch of junk is still going to be junk when we hit a recession. I think this is absolutely true, although I don't know if the underlying credit quality is "junk" ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

My understanding is that LendingClub functions similar to a credit card company, say American Express or Capital One. They find and vet borrowers, and on the back end, instead of investing their own capital and earning a return on it, they bring in outside investors and take a cut. Since the whole ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 29, 2016 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?
Replies: 29
Views: 1730

Re: LendingClub/P2P the next subprime credit debacle?

I know some who buy many LendingClub/P2P loans and think they've diversified away risk, but it reminds me of subprime MBS - a bunch of junk is still going to be junk when we hit a recession. I think the risk is more similar to a junk bond crash than the subprime credit debacle. For one, if the P2P ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

wallygator wrote:Howdy,

Didn't see LIFE ON MARS on any ones list. We loved it. Kind off off the wall but really well done and lots of great actors.

Wally


Was there an American remake?

The British original was fabulous. And so was its sequel (Ashes to Ashes?).
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Occupied - (10 episodes) https://netflixtvshowsreview.com/2016/01/occupied-tv-series-norways-political-thriller-on-netflix/ We started watching Occupied, currently up to episode 3. My only complaint is not understanding the language and having to turn on captions and read the lines. Seems like a ve...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 185
Views: 15747

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Star Trek: Deep Space 9 . I'm binge-watching, which for me means I'll get through the 176 episodes (7 seasons) in 2-3 years. After that, I promised myself Breaking Bad . I can only deal with one non-current show at a time. edit to add: That's not entirely true... I've started watching Archer on Hul...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 5503

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

Excellent report, thanks for posting it, Robert T. For financial planning, it seems prudent for investors, whether in the accumulation stage or the retirement stage, to use the slow-growth scenario (in orange below) — about 4.5% real return for stocks and 0% real return for bonds. There actually se...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

From the BRK annual letter of 2011, page 17. I recommend to everyone to read the entire section. I think its fair to note that Buffett's observations are more relevant to the younger members of bogleheads than they are to those in their late 60s and above, but they are not irrelevant to any of us. ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Took the Plunge, Bought an Accord Hybrid
Replies: 54
Views: 8388

Re: Took the Plunge, Bought an Accord Hybrid

Congrat's to the Bogleheads interested in high fuel economy vehicles. Seems like I read that 60% of US oil consumption is used in vehicles. If 60% could be halved, what an huge positive impact that would have on the worlds civilian population. burt Or would it just cause/enable more people to drive...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 28, 2016 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: McKinsey report on diminishing returns
Replies: 91
Views: 5503

Re: McKinsey report on diminishing returns

Two big questions are 1) whether individuals will act on it, or will they simply ignore or ditch the sources of advice who tell them this and listen to sources of advice (like Dave Ramsey!) who say no problem getting 12%/year? 2) What will institutions, notably pension funds, do? Apparently they ha...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey
Replies: 132
Views: 13481

Re: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey

Very much agree on Silent Running . I would say it's one of my all-time favorites. The first time I saw the Valley Forge domes they reminded me of the biospheres on the Arc in the old Canadian TV series Starlost . I guess it should have been the other ways around since Silent Running was released f...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey
Replies: 132
Views: 13481

Re: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey

Good list but please do not forget the all time classic SF movie - Logan's Run. I am taking that as ironic? ;-). What most British males have never recovered from is Jenny Agutter with her clothes off. As a child actress she played one of the children in the classic The Railway Children which every...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey
Replies: 132
Views: 13481

Re: Stanley Kubrick's 2001 a space odyssey

That reminds me also of Space Cadet, where the pilot says "that crater is the Des Moines crater". The context is never explained. Maybe it was this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decorah_crater Bad news for midwestern trilobites during the Middle Ordovician. But I digress. Sorry, OP. It's...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

We might just chug along like this for some years more without any further policy adjustments until time works its magic. Eventually those newly created jobs in this recovery will start increasing aggregate demand and the money multiplier. I wonder if that's comforting to those who are out of work ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

. There are 3 alternatives that come to mind. First, time. Time heals all wounds if you wait long enough but waiting long enough is not very satisfying personally or politically. Eventually deleveraging will be complete, personal balance sheets will be improved, and the surplus of retiring baby boo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

As I understand it this QE is just debt monetization or running the printing presses as they say, is that right? And part of what has the central banks backed into a corner is that it did seem to cause inflation, but mostly in areas of the economy such as financial assets and desirable urban housin...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dodge & Cox
Replies: 10
Views: 1475

Re: Dodge & Cox

anyone has any opinion about the DODFX (D & C international)? I am wondering if I should keep this or change to Vanguard total international. When I started posting here (early 2008?) we talked about it a lot and it was popular. Now I generally get the impression it is out of favor, perhaps bec...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance
Replies: 23
Views: 1553

Re: Critique Fixed Income Strategy - GNMA Dominance

Everything I've quoted for funds is the SEC yield minus, for taxable stuff, my tax cost. Valuethinker, are you saying that there is no reason for me to be in GNMA vs treasuries and that the extra yield to compensate for the negative convexity isn't really compensating me? GNMA bonds pay an extra yi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Ah, I see. I've never seen an explanation about how these giveaways are financed, but my guess is that you are right and the direct costs of the gifts are ultimately recorded as government debt. Actually your post was the first time I'd ever heard the term "helicopter drop," so I'll have ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Fans of monetary policy often say that the BOJ hasn't really tried hard enough. The Japanese don't believe it will do what it takes. Krugman has written that a central bank has to plausibly commit to be irresponsible. Also see Scott Sumner's posts on the subject at http://www.themoneyillusion.com/ ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 27, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?
Replies: 76
Views: 6177

Re: Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low Worldwide?

Ah, I see. I've never seen an explanation about how these giveaways are financed, but my guess is that you are right and the direct costs of the gifts are ultimately recorded as government debt. Actually your post was the first time I'd ever heard the term "helicopter drop," so I'll have ...

Go to advanced search