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by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 04, 2016 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it Legal for a Company to buy its own shares ?
Replies: 9
Views: 1043

Re: Is it Legal for a Company to buy its own shares ?

I have money invested in a company that is trading in its own shares as a means of trying to stimulate market interest and create "fake" volume. I know that certain countries have made this practice illegal - but as this is a US based company I wondered if there were any similar restricti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is NAASDAQ getting hammered?
Replies: 11
Views: 1437

Re: Why is NAASDAQ getting hammered?

Maybe big investors are starting to realize that some of these tech companies aren't ever going to make enough money to justify the valuations. Plausible. Although it looks to me like the big tech cos *do* (or will) make money. Google (Alphabet) is at a huge valuation, but it's also hugely profitab...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 04, 2016 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shocking Bogle quotes
Replies: 19
Views: 2074

Re: Shocking Bogle quotes

He says that what happened in Japan could happen in the US and that Japan had a lot of similar positive characteristics such as work ethic, productivity and innovation to the US before their market crash. page 58. When was this book published? Because I don't really agree with his characterization ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Very tough career choice part 2 (ego, startup, hedge funds)
Replies: 78
Views: 7058

Re: Very tough career choice part 2 (ego, startup, hedge funds)

Hi As I wrote in more details a few months ago here (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=193822), I was the very first engineer at a tech startup and, after building and leading an engineering team and scaling the company, I was passed on for a promotion, since the founder deci...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P2P Lending Dead
Replies: 41
Views: 4096

Re: P2P Lending Dead

I know there are many dissenters of P2P lending. I personally only hold a small amount in it for numerous reasons named on several other threads and use Lending Robot for investing in the notes. P2P investing is more of a hobby of mine than a critical component of my investing plan. I just received...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High Inflation vs Currency Exchange Rate
Replies: 13
Views: 1081

Re: High Inflation vs Currency Exchange Rate

Thanks. It's just so confusing. Before the election, at lease I kind of understand what's going on. When there was a high probability rate hike, stock went down. When rate hike didn't happen, stock went up. After the election, expected multiple rate hike just pushed the market to new highs, all bec...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 03, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a company share or pay down debt
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Buy a company share or pay down debt

My questions are twofold. First, am I an idiot to consider buying an extra share instead of paying down the student loan? It seems like a relatively safe gamble with a high potential payout - that could completely fund a debt payoff in itself. No. This is a classic insider trade in a situation wher...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 27
Views: 3107

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

I think Dutch had it right. Demographics are a key factor, and we are likely to see the same thing play out in many of the world's developed economies for the next several decades. The capitalist system is dependent upon growth, and growth is difficult to achieve when your population is shrinking, ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 27
Views: 3107

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

I doubt if the US stock market would experience the same sort of failure that the Japanese stock market did in the 1980s. The US market structure is different than the Japanese market was at that time. The Japanese had a “keiretsu” system, where various companies and banks had interlocking relation...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 27
Views: 3107

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

Inquiring Bogleheads want to know: I'm very fuzzy about why the Japanese market took a huge dive and stayed down for so many years. Can some of the pundits on this board explain it simply? The "Japan" situation is usually used as a rationale for maintaining a significant amount of interna...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 02, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 27
Views: 3107

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

Inquiring Bogleheads want to know: I'm very fuzzy about why the Japanese market took a huge dive and stayed down for so many years. Can some of the pundits on this board explain it simply? The "Japan" situation is usually used as a rationale for maintaining a significant amount of interna...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

A side issue, but topical for this site - How much sea level rise exposure do REITs or real estate funds have? It seems around the world the poor places are going to be abandoned (this is already happening in Alaska and Louisiana), but in the rich places, man will try to stave off the ocean and tha...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

I figured there was no way New Orleans was the lowest city since I knew death valley was way under sea level. But I guess it is the lowest "real" city that you've heard of since Calipatria has only 7000 people in it. Should have written "lowest lying coastal city". Other places ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

Late last year when we were looking to retire and move for an affordable coastal area, I was shocked by how many homes were for sale in Hilton Head SC. Hilton Head Island is a beautiful place but looking at elevations and projected flood maps for that area they may have a significant problem if oce...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

Well, that's interesting, and that is some building, architecturally speaking. I live on the coast in another state, and I have been figuring my area is doomed since it is not very amenable to seawalls, but, son of a gun, the corps of engineers is starting projects to elevate vulnerable areas. Tip ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

The question here reminds me of that on interest rates. The question is when. Miami real estate is also dependent on it being a safe money haven which could also change but when. This has been discussed for 20 years and may not be an issue for another 20 which is longer than most people own in Miam...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

How is that high tide thing working in New Jersey? Some of those towns lost a bunch of beach in Sandy and now the high tide line has moved into the street. But the houses themselves are elevated a little so they do not get wet regularly. Yes they were trashed in Sandy but many were still standing a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Re: Miami- be very careful buying RE here

My philosophy is to buy on high ground away from oceans, streams, rivers, etc. I live at the top (highest elevation) of my street (~380 feet above sea level; SE Pennsylvania.) In 34+ years I have never had a flooded yard or a drop of water in my basement, knock on wood. At the bottom of the street,...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Miami- be very careful buying RE here
Replies: 25
Views: 2825

Miami- be very careful buying RE here

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-29/why-are-developers-still-pouring-billions-into-waterlogged-miami?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social I recognize that there is an implicit view h...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New UK investor need help with passive investment plan
Replies: 7
Views: 531

Re: New UK investor need help with passive investment plan

This is very difficult. It appears to me OP is on a long term government disability scheme? Government is cracking down on these- the outsourcing companies that do the disability assessments have (it appears) been given quotas on number of claimants to get off LTD. People w terminal cancer being tol...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"
Replies: 78
Views: 8244

Re: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"

...I also don't believe very many more people are going to buy his electric cars; there will probably come a point where sales growth will trickle. IMO, it's all but certain that within a couple decades, most new cars will be electric. The trajectory is baked in and the transformation will be drive...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities in your assets allocation
Replies: 22
Views: 964

Re: Commodities in your assets allocation

Just wondering if anyone includes commodities as part of their asset allocation. It certainly is not discussed much on the forum, but does seem to add a bit more diversification. Vanguard has an ETF and fund that covers this. Vanguard Materials Index Fund Admiral Shares (VMIAX) Commodities comes an...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never lived through rising interests rates; what to expect?
Replies: 10
Views: 2088

Re: Never lived through rising interests rates; what to expect?

I came of age financially during the 2007-08 financial crisis. Since I've become an adult, I've only known falling or near-0% Federal funds rates. For me, this situation is the "normal" way the economy works. I recently researched TIPS and I-Bonds for my parents, and I was very surprised ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 28, 2016 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Never lived through rising interests rates; what to expect?
Replies: 10
Views: 2088

Re: Never lived through rising interests rates; what to expect?

I came of age financially during the 2007-08 financial crisis. Since I've become an adult, I've only known falling or near-0% Federal funds rates. For me, this situation is the "normal" way the economy works. I recently researched TIPS and I-Bonds for my parents, and I was very surprised ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Nov 28, 2016 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"
Replies: 78
Views: 8244

Re: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"

I'm bearish on Musk. He also says that there will be millions of people on Mars in just a few decades. I don't believe that for a minute. Timing. Decades? No. Centuries? Maybe yes. We probably need a 10x (rather /10) drop in launch costs per pound. Someday, no doubt, we will achieve that. You would...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Foreign old-age pension for US citizen & resident?
Replies: 8
Views: 883

Re: Foreign old-age pension for US citizen & resident?

I am getting a very small German pension, worked there for a few years after college, just enough to pay for my beer. My SS does not get reduced by that, I looked at the Windfall Elimination Provision of SS. I do not pay German taxes, but have to declare it as income for US taxes. In general, the U...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corvette to Hybrid
Replies: 55
Views: 4696

Re: Corvette to Hybrid

Once again thanks for all the advice and ideology. I'm a car guy. I bought the vette because I like the way it drives, love the way it sounds, love the way it looks. However dents, scratches, miles, loss of value have cause me more grief as I have gotten older. There is a time and place for owning ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?
Replies: 74
Views: 6565

Re: Investing in the 80's when CD rates were 17%?

Did anyone here avoid the stock market altogether when CD's were at historic highs (17%)? Over Thanksgiving, a retired (70 something) relative of mine was sharing how he is jealous of his good friend who has always avoided the stock market and instead invested only in CD's...even to this day. Obvio...
by Valuethinker
Sun Nov 27, 2016 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Composition of US National Debt
Replies: 28
Views: 2773

Re: Composition of US National Debt

Like a real household, it makes no sense to focus solely on debt and ignore assets. You may have a $500k mortgage on a $1 million house, it does not mean you are deeply in trouble. I agree with that. Part of the assets owned by the US government are land and mineral rights. These are not generally ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the unknowability of the market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1586

Re: What is the unknowability of the market?

If a bond fund can go up by 10 percent in a year, why could it not give that up and go down by another 10 percent (for a 20 percent swing)? I am not talking about end of world or even that bonds on average do not pay back. I am talking about interest rate could change and the world relative risk vi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday - is this overdone?
Replies: 77
Views: 5816

Re: Black Friday - is this overdone?

The reason it works in America is that most people get a long holiday weekend - Thanksgiving followed by a Friday Holiday. Once folks finish their Thanksgiving holiday they are ready to start thinking about Christmas thus run out shopping on the Friday they have off from work. The internet has shif...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday - is this overdone?
Replies: 77
Views: 5816

Re: Black Friday - is this overdone?

The evidence suggests that it works. If it didn't would it have spread to Britain? Is it overdone? Probably. I think the issue is the Game Theory point I made - Prisoner's Dilemma for the retailers here. When 1-2 did it, they could steal market share. Now they all do it, and wind up lowering revenu...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 7:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Black Friday - is this overdone?
Replies: 77
Views: 5816

Black Friday - is this overdone?

Black Friday has become a "thing" here-- more examples of the internet allowing rapid transmission of social phenomena, in the manner of a cold virus. Great Britain, when it goes big for American culture, tends to grab the worst aspects of same (this may or may not be an example of that ph...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Honda Cars
Replies: 96
Views: 7867

Re: Honda Cars

Looking to get thoughts on Honda cars. I am thinking about buying a 2017 Honda Accord EX-L and would like feedback from others as to what they think of the Honda brand? Well made, reliable cars? IMO you won't really go wrong with an Accord. However, I've tended more toward Toyotas for several decad...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with these EE Bonds?
Replies: 4
Views: 999

Re: What to do with these EE Bonds?

My wife has 10 paper EE bonds, purchased over a variety of dates as gifts for her when she was a child. The first four- with issue dates varying from 01/1987-12/1989 all are earning 4.00%. That's obviously a nice rate for a no-risk investment, so she plans on keeping them until they stop paying int...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International Stocks
Replies: 73
Views: 6241

Re: Why International Stocks

nominalBob wrote:
ladders11 wrote:... Right now if you are invested 100% US, you are also missing 100% of the cheapest markets on earth.

Home planet bias!!


;-)

Good one.

:sharebeer
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corvette to Hybrid
Replies: 55
Views: 4696

Re: Corvette to Hybrid

This is getting financially ugly the more I investigate this. I'm just going to say it, California sucks and I cant wait to move. Not only are all the dealers lowballing me on my cars value, I just found out that California does not count the trade towards the final balance, which means I have to p...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the unknowability of the market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1586

Re: What is the unknowability of the market?

I don't follow dogma. I follow logic. Boglehead philosophy prevails because not because we say it does, but because it actually, empirically works. The stock market is unknowable. The bond market under such extreme conditions in this case was not. You are ignoring black swan risk. If Deutsche Bank ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Canada: Minimum wage & living expenses
Replies: 16
Views: 1706

Re: Canada: Minimum wage & living expenses

Details on the students: C$39000 per annum each in a moderate COLA, Montreal. I pay the academic fees separately. Apartments (unfurnished) rents come out at C$700 to $900 pm each. They have to pay for their own textbooks, clothing, food, etc. For the summer each can choose to take extra coursework ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Canada: Minimum wage & living expenses
Replies: 16
Views: 1706

Re: Canada: Minimum wage & living expenses

Details on the students: C$39000 per annum each in a moderate COLA, Montreal. I pay the academic fees separately. Apartments (unfurnished) rents come out at C$700 to $900 pm each. They have to pay for their own textbooks, clothing, food, etc. For the summer each can choose to take extra coursework ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Nov 25, 2016 6:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Types of Assets HNWI Boomers Own
Replies: 21
Views: 2371

Re: Types of Assets HNWI Boomers Own

I am starting in on secondary research on Baby Boomers to understand better the assets that high net worth ($3MM+ in investment assets, excluding personal residence) individuals own. I'm specifically trying to compare their asset ownership to the generations before them, namely those from the Silen...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High yield corporate (VWEAX) vs REIT (VNQ)
Replies: 6
Views: 783

Re: High yield corporate (VWEAX) vs REIT (VNQ)

http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VWEAX&region=usa&culture=en-US http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VNQ&region=usa&culture=en-US&productcode=COM VWEAX has much lower volatility than VNQ. Yields: VWEAX 5.71%, VNQ: 3.72% I have some money ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 24, 2016 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the unknowability of the market?
Replies: 30
Views: 1586

Re: What is the unknowability of the market?

I don't follow dogma. I follow logic. Boglehead philosophy prevails because not because we say it does, but because it actually, empirically works. The stock market is unknowable. The bond market under such extreme conditions in this case was not. You are ignoring black swan risk. If Deutsche Bank ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail FX "Investing" [Foreign Exchange]
Replies: 16
Views: 1212

Re: Retail FX "Investing" [Foreign Exchange]

An outfit called Online Trading Academy runs brokered radio programs in South Florida, the DC Metro area and probably in many other places across the country. The pitch is that they'll train you to profitably trade the markets (oh, sign me up!). FX is featured as a good way for the beginner to star...
by Valuethinker
Thu Nov 24, 2016 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"
Replies: 78
Views: 8244

Re: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/elon-musk-vs-the-trolls I think the National Report or Onion article was a parody of the ridiculous troll articles being published against Elon Musk and his endeavors. Scary thing is not that they are being published but that so many people believe ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"
Replies: 78
Views: 8244

Re: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"

This week, a scientific research facility in Wyoming made a startling discovery that is certain to change the way millions of Americans look at the environmentalism movement, after they found conclusive evidence that solar panels not only convert the sun's energy into usable energy, but that they a...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing now for possible future abroad
Replies: 11
Views: 1196

Re: Investing now for possible future abroad

All in all...what you're really talking about is insurance. "What is the insurance for maybe one day moving overseas?" All insurance costs money. And often it is quite expensive. In my personal opinion, it isn't worth trying to "buy" insurance for a possible one day move oversea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"
Replies: 78
Views: 8244

Re: "Musk Says Tesla’s Solar Shingles Will Cost Less Than a Dumb Roof"

I hope he succeeds. However, politics and your local electric company will determine the future of his products. Research Musk vs Buffett solar wars. Buffett won that battle and effectively killed the solar industry in Nevada. I do not see the day when we all have these on our roofs... It's a very ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond allocation for non-US investors and negative interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 1038

Re: Bond allocation for non-US investors and negative interest rates

Hi Valuethinker Thanks for this in-depth reply; very helpful! In Switzerland, savings accounts are insured up to CHF 100'000 per bank/person. So theoretically, that would be up to CHF 200'000 for the wife and myself, which should be good for the next few month. For a bond ETF, I would go for Swiss ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Nov 23, 2016 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: help assessing risk of promissory note w/ Techshop, Inc.
Replies: 12
Views: 1671

Re: help assessing risk of promissory note w/ Techshop, Inc.

I'm an investor in Techshop Detroit. My note is now several weeks in arrears, and no one at Techshop investor relations will respond to my inquiries. I became worried when one of the two long-time head guys abandoned ship recently, they started closing on Sundays, and they continued the constant pu...

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