Search found 28946 matches

by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oil Well Working Intrest
Replies: 17
Views: 1001

Re: Oil Well Working Intrest

Age: 24 Job: Petroleum Geologist Tax Bracket: 28% Vanguard Roth: 25,000 (VTI, VXUS) Vanguard Brokerage: 4,000 (VTI) SIMPLE IRA: 6,000 (VOO) No credit card, student loans, or car debts. Mortgage 130k left (3.65 interest rate) Outside of my retirement investing our small company invests money directl...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for a Brit in the US
Replies: 4
Views: 250

Re: Advice for a Brit in the US

I cannot advise you on a lot of this (UK resident and national). But - 401k only to get the company match. If only $1k pa, then you are right it is probably not worth the hassle - You will need tax advice, but for the current tax year, you will be UK non resident, therefore no tax to pay to HMRC and...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: rebalancing into frontier markets
Replies: 8
Views: 688

Re: rebalancing into frontier markets

Is anyone buying the asset class of the frontier markets etf ? I am thinking about rebalancing into that with new funds since it has underperformed the emerging markets total return for the 1, 2, and 3 year time periods. It's more a "buy a bit and lock it away". Some of these markets will...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UK TIPS track record - what can we learn?
Replies: 18
Views: 899

Re: UK TIPS track record - what can we learn?

Can't remember if I already posted about it, but I finally located the full history of TIPS in the UK in the Barclays "Equity Gilt Study", here is the 2016 edition: http://hungrydummy.com/media/pdf/EquityGiltStudy2016.pdf UK TIPS are called "Index-linked gilts", and their histor...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UK TIPS track record - what can we learn?
Replies: 18
Views: 899

Re: UK TIPS track record - what can we learn?

Just for perspective, let's compare how stocks did relative to bonds, in the high-inflation era of the 1970s. Here's both our nominal 10 to 2-year government bond fund * and the S&P 500 ** fighting inflation **. This time, I've selected the worst possible starting year (1973): http://i67.tinypi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratio Question
Replies: 20
Views: 1219

Re: P/E Ratio Question

Ok this may be a dumb question but during a recession I notice that the P/E ratios are high 100+ and it confused me a little. I thought prices of stocks are low and not high during a recession. Is it because the earnings are low and the prices are high relative to earnings which cause high P/E rati...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much MLP is reasonable in a portfolio?
Replies: 18
Views: 1146

Re: How much MLP is reasonable in a portfolio?

Given your previous post, it seems as though you are performance chasing and lacking an overall investment plan. Do you have an IPS? If so, what does it say about MLPs? Furthermore, you seem to be buying high and selling low--the opposite of what you're trying to do. I'd leave this alone and let co...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VC Fund - Long Term Cap Gain - Avoiding Large Cap Gain
Replies: 10
Views: 535

Re: VC Fund - Long Term Cap Gain - Avoiding Large Cap Gain

I suppose the risk of holding an individual security is outweighed by the reward of holding it until death at which point successors would be entitled to a stepped up cost basis? My understand of that is that if the security had a basis of $5 now and was trading at $50 and i didn't do anything and ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VC Fund - Long Term Cap Gain - Avoiding Large Cap Gain
Replies: 10
Views: 535

Re: VC Fund - Long Term Cap Gain - Avoiding Large Cap Gain

Hi All - I'll be a bit vague here on the details as I don't think they matter: I was fortunate to invest in a venture capital fund that had a holding it had invested in IPO and. When the lock-up period ends the the shared are distributed there will be a very large capital gain for me as investor. O...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie
Replies: 38
Views: 3743

Re: Annuity for 28 Year Old Hippie

Financially, the best solution is to invest it. If you want to help him keep his hands off it, set up a revocable trust to manage it and have someone else as trustee. Only trustee can change investments or withdrawal schedule. This has to be the way to go. Re annuities such are used if, for example...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maligned sectors
Replies: 6
Views: 600

Re: Maligned sectors

You might be interested in the CAPE ETN: http://www.etnplus.com/US/7/en/details.app?instrumentId=174066 or the similar DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE mutual fund DSENX / DSEXX: http://www.doublelinefunds.com/shiller-enhanced-cape/ Each month, the Index ranks ten US sectors based on a modified CAP...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond
Replies: 12
Views: 1520

Re: CD vs Short Term Inv Grade Bond

Hi all, I have some emergency cash. I'm debating an Ally 5 yr CD @ 1.7% or the Vanguard Short Term Inv Grade Bond fund. The fund is yielding 1.53% and the 1 yr annual return at almost 3.5% Should I be concerned that annual return is so high considering the yield is only 1.53%? Is this like a bond b...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

Merging it with Tesla, a company that is also desperate for capital, also seems like a poor idea. One thing: Musk has outsmarted most of us sceptics, more than once. He might pull this one off, too. Didn't Tesla just raise a bunch of capital in May? I'm not sure I'd say they are desperate for it. C...
by Valuethinker
Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

What you have in solar is an unpriced externality-- polluting electricity generation vs. unpolluting. Since we don't, in general, tax pollution, if you want non polluting you have to incentivize it. In economics that is called a "second best" solution because the first best solution (a ta...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?
Replies: 47
Views: 3861

Re: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?

Hmm, I see. If S&P500 gets in a downturn like Nikkei, it might be quite painful as only maybe your kids will experience the stocks recovering. But hey, we still get the dividends, right? Nikkei paid sub 1% yield in 1990 (it's not a great yield now). Also companies *cut* dividends when times are...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?
Replies: 47
Views: 3861

Re: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?

I am 50/50 on this. We don't seem to be able to "crack" the inbuilt limit in our DNA that seems to limit human life expectancy to around 100. Because of rising standards of living, more people make it to 90-100, but beyond that. But we are close. Look up on telomere lengthening via geneti...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: oil&gas bankruptcies
Replies: 8
Views: 939

Re: oil&gas bankruptcies

Fracting wells is polluting and promotes ground quakes so theory says and yet not absolutely proven. IMO, best to get the well in, drill the materials, and then sit on the well head until prices improve. Some financial institutions are in deep and may have get in deeper, unless the comptroller of t...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: oil&gas bankruptcies
Replies: 8
Views: 939

Re: oil&gas bankruptcies

I trust Valuethinker will be here soon with an excellent thorough explanation as usual. ;-). Thank you for that compliment. Just Frank has given you better, more informed commentary than I ever could. The production decisions of the Saudis and Russians suggest: - they don't believe oil prices are l...
by Valuethinker
Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacing equity with high-yield bonds
Replies: 2
Views: 282

Re: Replacing equity with high-yield bonds

I've seen several discussions around high yield bonds vs bonds which are usually focused around the fact that they are similar to equity and should therefore not be used as a replacement to bonds in a portfolio. From what I've read they have about 1% less annual return with about half the volatilit...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

SCTY's market cap has fallen from $6bn in 2014 to $2bn today. Free cash flow BURN is about $1bn over past 4 quarters. There is no organic cash flow to pay off upcoming maturities of over $300 million in 2016 and about $900 million in 2017. SCTY is completely reliant on either refinancing debt matur...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

Linky What do you guys think? Unnecessarily risky and speculative? I'm thinking the same, but so tempting. That's why they're tempting. They are risky. I have not researched Solar City, but the name implies company that soaks up government subsidies and tax credits. There are two types of companies...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

More great food for thought. Here are my findings: I don't see anything wrong with your calculations in principle. If the income is maintained in real terms (CPI indexed) then I think we can do this using current money. There are a couple of issues: - this is annuity income, so if you die before yo...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European currently living in the U.S. in need of advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1074

Re: European currently living in the U.S. in need of advice

Very good point! As far as health insurance goes, this is not much of an issue. I actually only have dental and vision here in the U.S. I did the math and not having medical + paying the fee works out cheaper at least for me! :) In Germany, Austria and the UK have a decent public health care system...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension buyout
Replies: 4
Views: 724

Re: Pension buyout

Given financial condition of the Plan Sponsor (employer) and some worries re the PBGC (which guarantees most private plans) I would take the $26k and invest it according to your investment strategy. The saving in future paperwork also makes that worthwhile. Safest thing to do would be to roll it int...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4725

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

tim1999 wrote:Don't get me started on this guy...


There is a very strong case to be made in his defence, so this will simply break out into a war well outside Forum rules.
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you rent/buy or stay put? (Details provided)
Replies: 8
Views: 1143

Re: Would you rent/buy or stay put? (Details provided)

Here is my situation Mortgage is about $3400/mo (inc $6k/yr tax and insurance $1400/yr) Rent income is about 3500/mo for unit 1-2 Unit 3 is me (value of about 2500/mo if I rent) Various common expenses of the house is roughly $300/mo in electricity/water/etc. I am not planning to sell the house, du...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

Pardon my ignorance if this is wrong but if one has, say, 50k in savings account, what is wrong in putting 10% of it - 5000 into it ? Also, only risk is tesla going bankrupt before feb 2018 - very less probability. It's the same level of risk, just with a lower return. I'd rather put my money in an...
by Valuethinker
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500
Replies: 11
Views: 1480

Re: Brilliant Quant Hedge Fund has returns of S&P 500

The more I read, the more I become a believer. Forbes just published an article excitedly saying that the Quants are Taking over Wall Street . The article excitedly talked about these brilliant quant hedge fund managers, who are all the rage on Wall Street. Scot Patterson The Quants. In summer 2007...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

Valuethinker, I did manage to find some real data about contributing to the German pension system. Could you help me figure out the internal rate of return so that I can compare this to investing the money myself? Here are the numbers: ⋅ If I pay 1009.80 EUR per year into the German pensi...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 4685

Re: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks

I took a look at the Vanguard target retirement funds. They start with a "home bias" of +17.5% and end up with +10% during the retirement allocation. I'm from Germany and thought a lot about including Germany in my asset allocation for my retirement portfolio, but decided against it and j...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

I just finished writing my investment policy statement and I'm pretty happy with it. I'll let it sit for a few days and review it once more before I take the plunge and invest a third of the savings that I set aside for my retirement. I ended up with the most basic of portfolios: 70% total stock ma...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 6:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?
Replies: 47
Views: 3861

Re: Ultra aggressive index portfolio for a 30 yo with high risk tolerance?

30 EU investor. Considering an aggressive equity index portfolio. I did two tests that led me to this consideration. One was the Vanguard recommendation test which came out suggesting me distributing my assets like this: 60% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VTSMX) 40% Vanguar...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Salt Lake City Housing Market
Replies: 7
Views: 921

Re: Salt Lake City Housing Market

I think an older home is a mistake because of the hassles around repairs. I also think a 4000 square foot home is a huge mistake. 2 retired people can do with less than 2000 square feet. More if live in care, or need to have bedrooms on ground floor. I think it's the debate around that latter point ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4725

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

My first question is why is a billionaire telling the world what he is doing? I doubt he cares about my welfare, so perhaps he is trying to convince me to do something that will help him make money. I doubt he'll kindly give me a heads up before he exits his position. If I had a billion dollars and...
by Valuethinker
Sat Aug 20, 2016 5:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%
Replies: 28
Views: 3345

Re: SolarCity SolarBonds 6.5%

Linky What do you guys think? Unnecessarily risky and speculative? I'm thinking the same, but so tempting. Perhaps because I have a UK ip address, my access was blocked. I am reminded of that aphorism "more money has been lost reaching for yield than any other way"-- that's often quoted a...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 2863

Re: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation

I feel a bit like the French Generals of WWII, trying to fight WWII with WWI tactics. It is definitely "interesting" to watch this play out in real time. We have the Bank of England telling us in December that the "global neutral real rate may settle at or slightly below 1% over the ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 2863

Re: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation

How could we get deflation. What are the limits on the printing press. BOJ and ECB are buying up junk bonds and stock ETFs. Remember economics: rational expectations. Unless the market believes the increase in money supply is *permanent* ie that the Central Bank will *never* simply redeem the debt ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

Given your time horizon, yes the medium term bonds are worth it. It's not a huge part of your portfolio in any case. If there is further deflation then the medium term bonds will benefit. Note in a high equity portfolio long term bonds give you the best protection against deflation. Downside is of ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: European currently living in the U.S. in need of advice
Replies: 15
Views: 1074

Re: European currently living in the U.S. in need of advice

Couple of elementary points: - make sure you are in the US Social Security system- it is relatively generous, it will pay even if you don't live in the USA, and the underlying demographics are good for a developed world scheme (much better than Germany or Italy, say). It will pay you something, in t...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4725

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

Reflexivity! Talk enough about a panic and you create one :mrgreen: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=4842282 However Soros does not move markets. Those days are gone. He's running less money, he is in his 80s, was out of the game for a long time, etc. You can't "talk" a market like...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

Ok, here comes my next question: About the German government bonds: short term ( < 1 year) or mid term (5 years - 10 years)? Long term bonds are out of the question due to their higher volatility. The mid term bonds provide at least a bit of positive return, but is this worth the slightly higher vo...
by Valuethinker
Fri Aug 19, 2016 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 4685

Re: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks

I agree that US stocks plus US bonds is "fine" for a US investor. Though I would point out that I'd expect a US bond plus world-ex-US stock two-fund portfolio to have 2% higher annualised return on the stock part. I think the argument that you don't need foreign because US stocks are expo...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

Valuethinker, Taking currency risk by buying UK/US/AUS/CAN bonds would be expressing a negative opinion on the future of the Euro, right? This seems like a reasonable hedge for who might be concerned about prospects for EUR-denominated corporate bonds in case of a Eurozone split. In principle, yes....
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

[about the Barclays Euro Aggregate Bond Index..] If the EUR bloc every breaks up, it will go haywire. I'm concerned about that, too. It quite possible that the EU in its current form won't be around in 20 years. Let's assume that the EU does break up, how would this affect corporate & governmen...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks
Replies: 45
Views: 4685

Re: John Bogle says it is ok to just hold US stock index and Bond index, no international stocks

Two Great Americans. Two Great Americans [and I will NOT argue with], Mister Buffett and Mister Bogle. By now I know which Vanguard fund is Mister Buffett's favorite. Hint. By now I know which Vanguard fund is Mister Bogle's favorite. Hint. Wishing all my BH shipmates good luck with your investment...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique
Replies: 25
Views: 1153

Re: EU/German investor: global portfolio thought process & critique

Ok, I went back to the drawing board and came up with a more “conservative” approach that can be implemented in 4 funds instead of 5: I replaced the German fund with a world small cap and gold + gov. bonds with the Barclays Euro Aggregate Bond Index: 50% MSCI World 15% Emerging Markets 15% MSCI Wor...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 515

Re: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX

Vangarder's strategy sounds remarkably like " Portfolio Insurance" . Most experts now believe this was a major component of the October 19th 1987 Crash, the largest single day crash in history. Basically the strategy required selling as the market fell to prevent portfolio losses. The pro...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX
Replies: 15
Views: 515

Re: Utility Holding Strategy - Feedback Please - VUIAX

I've read warnings about sudden drops in price, or return, or both. But do those drops so happen so quickly I could not respond with a disciplined sell threshold? I am usually a buy and hold, but does this approach make any sense? That's a mutual fund so the fastest you could sell it is probably 2 ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Aug 18, 2016 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?
Replies: 33
Views: 4725

Re: Why is Soros betting against the market (shorting SPY)?

baw703916 wrote:I guess he thinks it'll go down.

He might be right.

Or not.

:?:


Soros has a phenomenal record which he has never been able to explain his method to anyone else. His books don't tell you.

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