Search found 30802 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Los Angeles house buying
Replies: 32
Views: 2912

Re: Los Angeles house buying

LA RE cycles. These cycles are long. Before the '09-'11 drop was the '93-'94. In 93'-'94, the west side dropped 30%. Those houses are up nominally 5x now. From the '09-'12 drop, houses are up nominally x1.5~1.75. During the crash, leveraged people had their equity wiped out and some went underwater...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investors Capturing Returns of All U.S. Equities?
Replies: 19
Views: 1114

Re: Investors Capturing Returns of All U.S. Equities?

So from the statistics I have seen, overall it looks like if anything, the percentage of U.S. economic production being captured by listed company earnings is near historic highs. But that's because economic activity is concentrating in the hands of fewer companies? Many industries are showing very...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?
Replies: 113
Views: 8465

Re: Why is Real-Estate so Bad?

You will find die hard real estate investors in the same way that you will find die hard index investors. This is an indexing forum, so obviously most people here will favor the latter. I know a few real estate investors and they don't like the uncertainty of the market. They like the control they ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro government bond ETFs vs cash, accumulating REIT ETFs?
Replies: 14
Views: 1007

Re: Euro government bond ETFs vs cash, accumulating REIT ETFs?

Valuethinker: The reason I would like to include some REITs in my portfolio is that I remember seeing some studies which show that historically one has obtained a better risk-adjusted return by doing so. Past performance is of course not as such an indication of future returns, but... https://www.b...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with books
Replies: 16
Views: 1006

Re: What to do with books

I have piles of hard cover and some paperback books from the last decade or so. Many are finance related but not all. Is their a way to ship them all to Amazon and have them sell for me? Seems like listing them one by one and selling them will not be worth the effort and mostly the profit gets offs...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: You can never go "home" - retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 12221

Re: You can never go "home" - retirement

I grew up in Ireland, and while the grass is certainly greener, it's because it rains. A lot. Perfect example of the Irish sense of humour ;-). We go back to visit family every few years, and that's more than enough for me. I couldn't take that weather any more. I doubt we'll stay in NJ either. I c...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: You can never go "home" - retirement
Replies: 85
Views: 12221

Re: You can never go "home" - retirement

Like many people, I long for the city I grew up in. Be careful to distinguish between a longing for the place where you were young and a longing for the time when you were young. They are easily confused. And one is recoverable while the other is not. Ahhhh This is very very wise. The one thing you...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Keep Mortgaged Home For Rental Property - Equity In ROI?
Replies: 14
Views: 1104

Re: Keep Mortgaged Home For Rental Property - Equity In ROI?

Honestly rather struggling on how to best articulate my question - fingers crossed what is below at least gets the ball rolling. --- Family and I are currently exploring the possibility of purchasing a new home. While our current home could be sold to free up cash, it could also be used as a short ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?
Replies: 24
Views: 3018

Re: US/world 50/50, or rebalance according to market cap?

...My equities are 50/50 (US/world). Not market-cap, mind you, 50/50, period. And it will stay that way for a long time. I was taking this approach for simplicity, then reading some rebalancing literature from Dr Bernstein made me realize that I might get a bit of a rebalancing bonus as well, by NO...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice for someone new to Management Consulting
Replies: 6
Views: 894

Re: Advice for someone new to Management Consulting

I worked at one of the "top 3" strat firms for 7 yrs. I also was part of the career panel that decided bonuses, promotions, firing decisions for well north of a hundred consultants. Biggest piece of advice (which I think holds true anywhere, but is amplified in mgmt consulting) is to prac...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Euro government bond ETFs vs cash, accumulating REIT ETFs?
Replies: 14
Views: 1007

Re: Euro government bond ETFs vs cash, accumulating REIT ETFs?

Hello, I'm building a long-term buy&hold portfolio of approx. 300k€. My home currency is €, and I live in a country where accumulating ETFs are the best option to minimize tax drag. In terms of asset allocation, I'm aiming for 70% stocks and 30% bonds, and am planning to rebalance regularly. I ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I tilt to Country of Birth in asset allocation?
Replies: 11
Views: 1055

Re: Should I tilt to Country of Birth in asset allocation?

Hi, I have a roughly 60-40 portfolio with international exposure (e.g. Vanguard Retirement 2025). However, in the future (say 10-15 years) I intend to spend some time of the year (3-4 months) in the country of my birth. So expenses e.g. upkeep of ancestral home, travel in that country etc. will be ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving from Chicago NW suburbs to NJ/NY area
Replies: 31
Views: 2335

Re: Moving from Chicago NW suburbs to NJ/NY area

IMHO the SUNY system is better than Rutgers -- more choices, better schools. But if the state university system is driving the decision, then I would move to Texas or California. TMR I am no expert but I believe years of budget cuts have hit U Cal system: - tuition has risen, even for in state, *a ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 34935

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

To Mr. Swedroe

I have enjoyed your commentary and your measured responses to my questions.

Your departure from here is a loss to everyone.

I wish you well on your life's journey-- all we truly know is that it ends for all of us in the same place.

Sincerely

Valuethinker
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate rate of return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3117

Re: Real estate rate of return?

$120k to 200k seems ridiculously high for a garage apartment. Even in a HCOL area, I can't see it being more than $50k to 70k since the garage is already there. It's just insulation, plywood, electrical and plumbing and then finishing. OP has several quotes in that ballpark so it is not unreasonabl...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 1961

Re: value of stock options

Thank you everyone for the replies! One thing I'm really good at is never looking back and saying what if. When I decide to do something, it means I have weighed all the factors and decided that my move is the right option at that time. No reason to look back and say what if. I will however learn f...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate rate of return?
Replies: 34
Views: 3117

Re: Real estate rate of return?

We're considering adding a small 1-bedroom apartment above our detached garage, initially for use as a rental. Estimates we've gotten for construction are between $120k and $200k (we're in pretty early planning stages), and based on the local rental market, I expect we could rent it for $1700-1800 ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice
Replies: 36
Views: 4103

Re: Article-Argument against Buffet and Bogle's International Advice

I have a small allocation to international equities because I value the diversification. I also understand and hate that it exposes me to the risk of currency fluctuations on top of the normal market risk that comes from investing in U.S. based companies. That said, I intend to stay the course and ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1921

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

My 24 year old son has a portion of his Roth Ira in The Vanguard Energy Fund. (3K) From what I am reading lately it seems that the energy sector is not expected to do as well as once hoped. The majority of his Roth is in the Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund(5.5K) with a small portion in the Vanguar...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1921

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

Meh.....no one can predict the future, but I would not write off any particular company or industry. I heard the problem with fracking is the fields that are tracked aren't long-lived. Even when costs come down, the real question is efficiency. There is no shortage of oil, the GOM is one big oil pa...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mercedes Benz Demand Notes 1.6%
Replies: 21
Views: 2321

Re: Mercedes Benz Demand Notes 1.6%

I presume a ladder of Bank CDs just don't work for you? Actually I have a pretty significant CD portfolio along with I bonds. This is purely being considered as a buffer for about 6 months of living expenses like a money market account. Then if you lost it or had it frozen in some way, it sounds li...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is my electric bill high?
Replies: 60
Views: 5261

Re: Is my electric bill high?

It terrifies me that my monthly average is around 40$, and you all have such high electric costs. I have a 65 inch TV, several videogame consoles, a gaming desktop computer, a gaming laptop, a tablet, 2 cellphones, 1000va battery, run my furnace fan continuously, and my AC is on whenever it's neede...
by Valuethinker
Thu Apr 20, 2017 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 64
Views: 4270

Re: Young EU Investor

REITs come into their own if there is inflation. Real Estate, because rental leases are generally linked to prices, has superior inflation correlation to straight equities. However if you are in the Eurozone, inflation is very low for the forseeable future. If there is inflation in other countries,...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Armageddon Insurance - how to spend $100k
Replies: 29
Views: 2519

Re: Financial Armageddon Insurance - how to spend $100k

I am becoming more aware of economic warfare and risks to our financial system. However, I am not convinced that I need to go full survivalist. I think it is a growing risk that will continue with the increase convergence of big finance and technology. My life plan A is to prepare for likely events...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financial Armageddon Insurance - how to spend $100k
Replies: 29
Views: 2519

Re: Financial Armageddon Insurance - how to spend $100k

For research, watch "The Walking Dead." What preparation helped various parties and groups during that fictional societal collapse? Localized economic disruption is much more likely than full on collapse. Think Hurricane Katrina, where the roads, power, and water are cut for weeks at a ti...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding
Replies: 13
Views: 1280

Re: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding

I heard an interesting Podcast about alternative investments including real estate crowdfunding and am curious if anyone has any experience or insight into this world? They mentioned various platforms such as GroundFloor, RealtyShares, RealtyMogul and Funding Circle etc. I'm intrigued with the idea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding
Replies: 13
Views: 1280

Re: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding

I heard an interesting Podcast about alternative investments including real estate crowdfunding and am curious if anyone has any experience or insight into this world? They mentioned various platforms such as GroundFloor, RealtyShares, RealtyMogul and Funding Circle etc. I'm intrigued with the idea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes? - Update, New Info
Replies: 40
Views: 3379

Re: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes?

These things make such an incredible difference, low energy coatings. On the south and west sides of a house, they make a huge difference. It was a mistake I made, going for triple glazing. But on the slanted windows (Velux) they don't do triples-- they only do double but coated. The thermal perfor...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1921

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

It is good that our right honorable gentleman from the U.K. has agreed with my assessment of the effects of fracking upon future oil prices. This is why I am not piling into energy stocks now, I think the world has changed. Right Honourable refers to a Member of Parliament ;-). BP and Shell are amo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding
Replies: 13
Views: 1280

Re: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding

I heard an interesting Podcast about alternative investments including real estate crowdfunding and am curious if anyone has any experience or insight into this world? They mentioned various platforms such as GroundFloor, RealtyShares, RealtyMogul and Funding Circle etc. I'm intrigued with the idea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes? - Update, New Info
Replies: 40
Views: 3379

Re: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes?

The OP said they have lots of windows, and they're older windows, so probably unglazed, and letting a lot of heat in. The window replacement they're also doing will probably have a fairly significant affect on their heat gain. I'm familiar with double and triple glazed windows. I've never seen an u...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes? - Update, New Info
Replies: 40
Views: 3379

Re: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes?

I would ask them to quote 95 or 97 efficiency furnace. 80% efficiency is so 20+ years ago technology. The difference in price is not that significant nowadays. I had my furnace replaced in 2015 with a Goodman 80K BTU (home is about 2200 sq ft) with ECM (i.e. variable speed fan) for $4700 total. I b...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1921

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

It is good that our right honorable gentleman from the U.K. has agreed with my assessment of the effects of fracking upon future oil prices. This is why I am not piling into energy stocks now, I think the world has changed. Right Honourable refers to a Member of Parliament ;-). BP and Shell are amo...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding
Replies: 13
Views: 1280

Re: Real_Estate_Crowd_Funding

I heard an interesting Podcast about alternative investments including real estate crowdfunding and am curious if anyone has any experience or insight into this world? They mentioned various platforms such as GroundFloor, RealtyShares, RealtyMogul and Funding Circle etc. I'm intrigued with the idea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 1961

Re: value of stock options

Stupid question here - can someone explain why the volatility is important? Is it just to try to determine how risky holding the options is? Option pricing theory (Black Scholes - Merton & beyond). The 5 factors which drive the price of an option are: - risk free interest rate - exercise/ strik...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is my electric bill high?
Replies: 60
Views: 5261

Re: Is my electric bill high?

I'm in Southern California, in a 2500 sq. ft. house. Just the electricity part of my utility bill averages 1500 kWh/month which is about $300. It's always seemed high to me but I have no basis for comparison. Would love to hear usage and charges/month from other members! Added detail: I have a pool...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)
Replies: 18
Views: 1921

Re: Opinion on Vanguard Energy (VGENX)

The Vanguard Energy Fund in the past would have been a good bet during the downswings in energy prices. Hard to say if this will continue, I am beginning to think that fracking might have put a permanent ceiling on oil prices. The frackers are able to profit on lower and lower oil and gas prices as...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 64
Views: 4270

Re: Young EU Investor

I'm also from Europe my portfolio: 75% ishares msci world IWDA 15% vanguard Eurozone government bond VETY 10% cash Set and done, rebalance annually and adjust bond+cash % to age I admire the simplicity of your set-up. The simpler the better IMO but I will certainly add emerging markets, REITS and s...
by Valuethinker
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:49 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 64
Views: 4270

Re: Young EU Investor

I'm also from Europe my portfolio: 75% ishares msci world IWDA 15% vanguard Eurozone government bond VETY 10% cash Set and done, rebalance annually and adjust bond+cash % to age I admire the simplicity of your set-up. The simpler the better IMO but I will certainly add emerging markets, REITS and s...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Young EU Investor
Replies: 64
Views: 4270

Re: Young EU Investor

From the picture below taken from MSCI website it looks that MSCI Enhanced Value is more volatile (thus riskier) than MSCI World, so I guess that the risk adjusted expected return of both those indices has actually been quite identical over the past 20 years? So if I wanted to bear a bit more risk ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 178
Views: 19173

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

I have nothing to offer other than my thanks for posting this thread and for the regular updates. I'm a big law senior associate (this far happier with my experience than you seem to have been with yours), am cautiously optimistic about my advancement prospects, and very interested in learning what...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I increase my international equities?
Replies: 10
Views: 939

Re: How should I increase my international equities?

EDIT: Actually my math was wrong. Currently 15% of my entire portfolio is international, so .15/.70 means that I'm at about 21% of my equities as international. Yes, you are already at the level you are considering. It appears to me you could easily get to 50% of equities (35% of portfolio) by sell...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How should I increase my international equities?
Replies: 10
Views: 939

Re: How should I increase my international equities?

A long time ago now I set it at 40%, and I think that has some logic to it as a USD-mostly spender. I do also try to tilt my international to small, value, and EM as a way of decreasing the degree to which that 40% is overlapping with my large US companies, but at the end of the day, even with tota...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 1961

Re: value of stock options

The answer for me would be "NOW" - the risk is too high to hold too much in a single company - especially the one that I'm relying on for income. I've known too many people that said "if I had only cashed my stock options before...." If you had the money to invest would you put ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes? - Update, New Info
Replies: 40
Views: 3379

Re: New HVAC - Assessing Quotes?

Having had both single state and duel stage units, I would never go back to a single stage unit. I like the quietness associated with having two stages and longer "on times" versus having quick blasts of air, shut off, then another quick blast of air. If I remember right, there has been d...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 1961

Re: value of stock options

Thank you everyone for the help and advice. I am anywhere from 3 to 7 years from retirement. I have no plans on leaving the company. My plan was to wait until at least 2018 to exercise and sell. Just wasn't sure if that was a great idea given that I've read a lot about not having too many investmen...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: value of stock options
Replies: 30
Views: 1961

Re: value of stock options

So these are tricky. Standard models imply waiting until right before expiration. Standard models are missing a crucial factor, however, which is that if you have enough of these, they may represent a large portion of your net worth. If so, then they are putting you into a situation of being not pr...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 178
Views: 19173

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

BigLaw Survivor wrote:Thanks for all you helpful advice! Just FYI, I'd rather not divulge what city I live in.


sorry. I misremembered, that's all.
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 178
Views: 19173

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

PS I should note that I am really glad you "saw the light" and pulled the trigger on retirement. It's really important to enjoy each phase of our lives, but also to feel purposeful - -so a mix of hedonistic activities (travel etc.), family ones and community ones (being of service and help...
by Valuethinker
Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?
Replies: 178
Views: 19173

Re: More advice for BigLaw Survivor, please?

Thanks to both antheus and WB for your responses. It's nice to be on such a civil and helpful forum. WB the primary reason I'm not inclined to pay down my mortgage further is because the interest rate is very good (3.25 percent), it's interest only for another six years, and I already have close to...

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