Search found 30183 matches

by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STPZ (PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index) holds only 12 TIPS thus why not just...
Replies: 13
Views: 805

Re: STPZ (PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index) holds only 12 TIPS thus why not just...

P.S. Something funny. I can't believe this is still true, it's been this way for years. This is from the annual report of the Fidelity US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bond Fund, FINPX, as of March 31, 2016. This is a portion of its holdings (there are maybe 36 altogether). No, these figures are not...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STPZ (PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index) holds only 12 TIPS thus why not just...
Replies: 13
Views: 805

Re: STPZ (PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index) holds only 12 TIPS thus why not just...

(But I could have!) I keep wondering why they don't just sell it so it doesn't look so silly , but I'm thinking it will be there until 1932. This is a time machine problem. Holding bonds to 1932 only works if you can drop back in time before 1932. Another thing that baffles me is where do they get ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

HueyLD wrote:I thought there was an "all you can eat" buffet until I realized that it was Warren Buffett, not the buffet line that I frequent. :)



;-).
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

The belief that oil will go down because WB is "invested" in airlines is pretty flimsy. Airlines hedge against oil increases. Maybe he thinks oil will go up and his airlines are hedged well. That's honestly more likely than any other statement, but still unreliable as investment tea leave...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

Buffet's thoughts on oil were demonstrated in the 4th quarter of 2014 when he sold all his Exxon/Mobile stock. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/This-Is-Why-Warren-Buffet-Dumped-His-Exxon-Holding.html At some point in time, after the fact, we may learn that he bought it back. He's not buying ba...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

To be clear "other way" for investors to duplicate BH's investment strategy & advantages. Oh, I see. Fairfax has insurance interests. I believe Leukadia did, also? I didn't know that about LUK! Through the 1990s, Leucadia was primarily a multiline insurer offering both property and li...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New car or hand down used car to college student?
Replies: 17
Views: 884

Re: New car or hand down used car to college student?

I recently purchased a 2017 Honda Accord LX sedan to replace my 2003 Accord LX V6 sedan (141,000 miles). The 2003 Accord was rear-ended last year (moderate damage to trunk area, but repaired), and the oil pump has a small leak and (according to my trusted independent Honda mechanic) will need to be...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used German Luxury vs New Japanese
Replies: 61
Views: 3935

Re: Used German Luxury vs New Japanese

European cars have been wildly oversold in North America to the point where they have no cache at all. You can find them all over any working class suburb in America. Nearly every American owns one at some point. They are like diamonds - nothing special but market hype. Wow. That seems essentially ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used German Luxury vs New Japanese
Replies: 61
Views: 3935

Re: Used German Luxury vs New Japanese

A loaded Camry or Accord is in the 30k range. A 3 year old Mercedes E Class or BMW 5 series with less than 50k is in the same range. Why would you pick one or the other? The big one for me is maintenance costs on the German cars. Is the luxury car that much better of a driving experience? Certainly...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to start - converting from generator/UPS to more reasonable solar / powerwall?
Replies: 12
Views: 808

Re: Where to start - converting from generator/UPS to more reasonable solar / powerwall?

Solar and batteries are likely to make a poor substitute for an emergency generator. You'd need enough batteries to cover you through night and long periods of limited solar power due to clouds etc. (that side of Lake Ontario gets some serious ice & snow storms, as a result of cold air from the ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

The thing that others cannot duplicate with BH (Leukadia used to be another way; Fairfax still is, arguably) is the extraordinary cheap cost of finance Buffett enjoys through high credit rating and through his insurance "float" (premiums paid, claims not settled). That means BH is de fact...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

I think he has seen recent consolidation in the airline industry and expects that they now have more pricing power than historically. Oil prices won't matter as much when all ticket prices move the same way. Retail on the other hand is too competitive. +1 - We have a winner. Speculating on oil pric...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

You definitely don't buy airlines if you think oil is headed to $100. Airlines have shown that they can make a profit at that level - but it's very tough to do it. Now that oil is cheaper - the airline employees (and unions) are bargaining with their CEOs to get much bigger raises. If oil does go b...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension at the PBGC - when to begin taking
Replies: 21
Views: 1457

Re: Pension at the PBGC - when to begin taking

I would recommend researching if your pension is part of the Single Employer Plan or the Mutiemployer Plan. Here is an except from the 2016 Annual Report: On our finances — the good news is that the financial condition of our single-employer program improved by $3.5 billion during FY 2016. The prog...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

We all think we have more sales resistance than we really do. Speak for yourself. I hope you enjoy your new timeshare! Haha! Great response, Nedsaid. I'm with np81 on this and still disagree with you but that's what makes the world great. We're not all the same in every regard. You can call it over...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower
Replies: 23
Views: 1478

Re: I think Buffet sees oil price go lower

He think he is saying that he, Warren Buffett, doesn't understand the retail business well enough for it to be a good investment for him . That's how I interpret the meaning of his words. But I really don't get the Buffettology thing. Buy Berkshire Hathaway stock or don't. What's the point in tryin...
by Valuethinker
Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Loan Funds
Replies: 9
Views: 642

Re: Bank Loan Funds

What is the consensus of this board about bank loan funds, either the ETF version or closed end fund? I am looking for something that will make money in a rising interest rate environment, and TIPs are overpriced in my opinion. I am willing to take substantial risk with a percentage of my cash, but...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Compounding under the microscope.
Replies: 55
Views: 4277

Re: Compounding under the microscope.

A lot of people in STEM fields have been working with it for so long that it is second nature and we forget that it wasn't always obvious. (As witness the poster who thought I was doing something invalid in drawing a straight line on a semilog chart of a mutual fund to demonstrate that it had had a...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

LadyGeek wrote:To keep this actionable, how does this impact personal investors?



If cap rates have compressed, the asset class is less attractive. Particularly if there is a mini bubble in housing valuations going on out there.

FWIW I don't think any of this heralds the next housing bust.
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

As an investor with 14 properties, low interest rates have greatly increased my returns. The spread between rents and mortgage interest payments has grown dramatically since 2008. What markets are you invested in? Because I can understand the spreads being greater for an investment purchased back i...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension at the PBGC - when to begin taking
Replies: 21
Views: 1457

Re: Pension at the PBGC - when to begin taking

About 10 Years ago my company froze their pension plan and then a few years later we went into Bankruptcy. When we emerged from bankruptcy the pension was in the hands of the PBGC. According to the PBGC paperwork I received once you reach the age of 55 you can begin drawing your pension from the PB...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

Yes, although low interest rates may have tempted into the residential rental mkt investors who accept lower returns. As an investor with 14 properties, low interest rates have greatly increased my returns. The spread between rents and mortgage interest payments has grown dramatically since 2008. I...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

I love the idea of a 100% EV car, though. I absolutely hate the idea of a 100% EV car. ..... I could buy one of those. But a pure electric? Way too dependent on infrastructure for me. When Mad Max times come, I need to be able to cross the country. [/quote] If Mad Max times came, you wouldn't be ab...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

But a pure electric? Way too dependent on infrastructure for me. When Mad Max times come, I need to be able to cross the country. Isn't a part of Mad Max's story about the dependence on fuel leading to theft and violence? If anything, gas has quite an involved infrastructure today from extraction, ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

Here is a semi-random thought I've alluded to before. Are all those folks who park in the street, and there are many, going to run 100ft extension cards to their cars to charge them every night? Many people who own cars don't have garages, or even houses; think of all those apartment complexes with...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

Here is a semi-random thought I've alluded to before. Are all those folks who park in the street, and there are many, going to run 100ft extension cards to their cars to charge them every night? Many people who own cars don't have garages, or even houses; think of all those apartment complexes with...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

But a pure electric? Way too dependent on infrastructure for me. When Mad Max times come, I need to be able to cross the country. Isn't a part of Mad Max's story about the dependence on fuel leading to theft and violence? If anything, gas has quite an involved infrastructure today from extraction, ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

The areas of danger would seem to be where there are "bubble" factors which might go away. In particular the tech sector, which we know from all of its history is quite cyclical. That could change the SF Bay area picture significantly (recognising that a 20% fall in prices is from extreme ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

It's a terrible time to be "in the market" for a house. A total circus, worse than any other time I can tell. We couldn't even go to the last open house we visited. The line of cars was absurdly long and there was nowhere to park on the residential street. In driving by, there was a large...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

I'm wondering what your take is on the housing market and what might cause it to crash this time around. Is now the time to wait it our and hoard cash for the downturn or do we say [(removed) --admin LadyGeek] , there's no bubble - now's the time to buy? Housing bubbles tend to be regional and have...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade
Replies: 45
Views: 3751

Re: AP: Americans buy existing homes at fastest pace in a decade

Just curious was there a time when the vast majority of experts or novices alike predicted the fall of housing or stock markets with any sort of accuracy? I don't think so. So why would it be surprising that "they" would miss predicting the fall again. Good luck. Apparently, the guy over ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy this house?
Replies: 37
Views: 2485

Re: Should I buy this house?

Unless I missed it, are you planning to sell your current home and how much it is worth? Is it expensive because it is a new custom build? In my view, 1800 sq ft is sufficient for a family of 4. How much are used homes at 3000 sq ft? Current home will go between $365-$380K. I will owe $256 own the ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy this house?
Replies: 37
Views: 2485

Re: Should I buy this house?

I think you can afford this house. I don't think you quite have all your other financials sorted out in terms of what you spend your money on, and the higher costs/ maybe lower income post 2nd child. If it is the house you want, you can see living in it for 10+ years AND you have the other expenses ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Malta
Replies: 14
Views: 1612

Re: Malta

Fascinating! I have never been to Malta and I understand Malta's claim to fame is to give you access to most of Europe if you are well heeled and want to stay there for over 3 month. Confused by this comment. Malta is a member of the EU, that's true. They do have an investor citizenship scheme, I b...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I buy this house?
Replies: 37
Views: 2485

Re: Should I buy this house?

I currently reside in an 1850 sq ft, 3 bed, 2.5 bath townhouse approximately 2 miles away from the new single family house.The new house is 3000 sq ft, on a 70x125 lot in a gated community with resort pool, etc. My current house has neither of these amenities. All maintenance & schools are the ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Feb 25, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017
Replies: 27
Views: 2052

Re: Credit Suisse Yearbook 2017

I really liked reading this. It is amazing how many "little things" have truly shaped our world and have been totally forgotten in the modern age. A technologically deterministic view of history is suspect (as is any mono causal view). However one could cite certain inventions which seem ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

but the likelihood of a Tesla going bust is close to that of a DeLorean - futuristic car, high on flash but little real substance to give it staying power . Eventually the jig is going to be up at Tesla, get rid of that tax credit and sales are going to fall like a rock. Tesla is following the Amaz...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

It seems there is no way out of these contracts once signed? i.e. you are on the hook for annual fee + maintenance + other fees *forever*? In a situation like that you could wind up *paying* someone else to take it back from you? Unlimited downside risk? Ouch. Let me tell you about the Lloyd's Names...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

I love attending timeshare presentations but would never buy a timeshare. They tend to often be bad deals and I don't like the commitment-factor. I want to reserve the right to never again travel. It's a simple transaction of my time for whatever prize they are offering. My wife and I attended a ti...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

I put down a $1000 refundable deposit for a Tesla 3 and I believe I'll be early enough to get the $7500 federal tax credit (the only reason I put the deposit down). Today's WSJ argues that Tesla is burning cash quickly. This makes me wonder if my deposit is at risk. As a 100% index fund investor I ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: risk of my Tesla deposit
Replies: 119
Views: 7045

Re: risk of my Tesla deposit

I was shocked at how many people gave a junk credit an interest free loan for a product that hadn't even been through production design yet. Yes it is at risk, yes owning a first generation car is typically an exercise in frustration. Tesla's cash burn has always been a problem. I'm a big EV fan, b...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Using Canadian Pharmacies
Replies: 31
Views: 3459

Re: Using Canadian Pharmacies

I was under the impression that it's illegal to buy Rx drugs from other countries. If not, why aren't they bombarding us with ads for cheaper meds? If they did, I suspect the drug companies or the distributors would cut them off. Grey market is a funny old world. The drug companies will tolerate it...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P at 22 times multiple
Replies: 40
Views: 4526

Re: S&P at 22 times multiple

I am firm believer in reversion to the mean. I know wall street has given stocks the trump bump in hopes of lower taxes and less regulation. Based on historical norms the market is way over valued I wonder how long it will take till market reverts back to the mean a sell off must be coming soon i s...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1876

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Could you clarify? My impression is we have limited knowledge of when the next big NW quake & tsunami occurrs? In fact it is only since about 2000 that there has been a consensus that it occurred before, around 1700? Hi Value, The chart was predicting earthquakes in the next 10,000 years, not d...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

My thoughts on time shares are similar to my thoughts on sexual slavery. Beautiful Russian girls are lured abroad by promises to become models, but once they commit they are done for. You are being lured by the time share models, but once you commit your money are done for. Victoria P.S. The expres...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

But saying that they're just bad investments entirely is nothing short of blind ignorance. What you say re resale is very interesting. Timeshares are like high fee active funds. One might get lucky (or skilful in your case). But the odds are very much against-- most of the factors you list are, by ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

dodgersummer wrote:I know very little about time shares, but see ads for them in Las Vegas. Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs?


The shows are real, but so too are the persuasive techniques. I would avoid them like the plague.
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

Oh yes, Glengarry Glen Ross (David Mamet) is an excellent film on the tactics of persuasion.

So is 12 Angry Men for that matter.

Any documentary on cult-like religious practices.
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: BH thoughts on Time shares
Replies: 117
Views: 7092

Re: BH thoughts on Time shares

I know very little about time shares, but see ads for them in Las Vegas. Are these good to attend for "free" tickets to shows and to buy or are they ripoffs? Generally the advice is against buying these things. Let me tell you a little from my (very limited) exposure to religious-type bra...
by Valuethinker
Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics
Replies: 21
Views: 1876

Re: The 100 year flood and stock market statistics

Hmm, going on a tangent here, but it's not often I get to use my geophysics education on this forum :beer I'm not convinced that the earthquake analogy is a good one. Predicting earthquakes is actually pretty easy, and we know much more about the underlying mechanics (which will apply also in the f...

Go to advanced search