Search found 29382 matches

by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and investment grade bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: Buybacks and investment grade bonds

Keep in mind that Microsoft might be paying less of a yield on its bonds than on its stocks! So Microsoft might actually be increasing its cash flow by borrowing! Actually, the dividend will be distributed to the remaining shareholders without a chunk of it staying in the company. So they won't inc...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

The EU has a Deposit Guarantee Scheme to cover depositors http://ec.europa.eu/finance/bank/guarantee/index_en.htm And Germany does too: https://www.db.com/hungary/docs/Information_on_investment_protection.pdf It doesn't specifically state that it covers non-EU residents. Any reason it wouldn't? AFA...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

With the Euro being such a mis-designed currency, DB might be a value trap. I think there are better gambles out there (although I think if you have a more than 10 year time horizon, you might be ok.) In the restructuring the subordinated bond holders (AT1s) and the equity holders will probably tak...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter will study abroad in ireland need advice
Replies: 23
Views: 1819

Re: Daughter will study abroad in ireland need advice

My compliments to ValueThinker... he's a living History Book! Albeit not an entirely correct one ;-). At least about Irish birth control ;-). It was one of the most conservative countries in Europe but it is changing quite quickly. Unlike Eastern Europe the financial crisis has not been followed by...
by Valuethinker
Sat Oct 01, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter will study abroad in ireland need advice
Replies: 23
Views: 1819

Re: Daughter will study abroad in ireland need advice

. pat776, I sent you a private message. health insurance - Ireland has a National Health Service AFAIK free at the point of sale. Ireland has a national health system, but the patient responsibility for each appointment is quite high (€60 or so for a GP visit). For a hospital stay at a public hospi...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]
Replies: 48
Views: 2255

Re: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]

Thanks, I have a lot to think about. I know I am overextended with this fund. I am OK with risk, but when looking at my net gains of my taxable portfolio it gets frustrating to see my overall gains stagnant because of this fund. It's only dropped 3.4% during trading yesterday. :annoyed I guess what...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and investment grade bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: Buybacks and investment grade bonds

Yes, buybacks boost EPS. The total earnings are the same but there are fewer shares outstanding. The higher interest bill on the borrowed money reduces your EBT and your Profits After Tax, and hence EPS. Unless your PE is astronomically high, this won't dilute EPS though. A Leveraged Buy Out is kin...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla S
Replies: 807
Views: 128640

Re: Tesla S

Thanks BrandonBogle. May I ask about insurance? I checked today. I've been using Mercury. Their price has been very reasonable. Even my current car, a Porsche Boxster, seems inexpensive. But a Tesla seems to be another story. I asked about a MS 90D. They said it depends on price, but if the car com...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 5:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]
Replies: 48
Views: 2255

Re: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]

Don't have time to read the thread this morning, but google "sunk cost fallacy". In economics, a sunk cost is any past cost that has already been paid and cannot be recovered. For stocks that are expected to experience volatility, especially in the case of the biotechnology sector the OP ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]
Replies: 48
Views: 2255

Re: FBIOX is killing me. [Fidelity Select Biotechnology]

I took a risk a while ago and bought FBIOX while it was climbing. The several year cumulative return was around 60%, and often returned that in a single year. Well, guess what happened almost the day after I bought it... Now I'm down $5500 on a $42000 buy-in, sitting around $37k current value right...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Earnings Manipulation through Inventory
Replies: 3
Views: 345

Re: Earnings Manipulation through Inventory

In the book Security Analysis, Graham writes that companies were able to inflate future earnings by falsely writing down inventory in the following way. They would write down inventory and charge the surplus account (I'm assuming surplus account is retained earnings). The charge would go unnoticed ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITS appropriate in a "buy and hold" portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1654

Re: Are REITS appropriate in a "buy and hold" portfolio?

For those that slice and dice, and particularly with REITS, I have heard that some of the premium is in the owners ability to "buy the dips", as REITS are potentially more volatile than other sectors of the market. Is this true? Do most people who own them, monitor their portfolios daily ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and investment grade bonds
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: Buybacks and investment grade bonds

Microsoft sold ~$30bn of bonds within the last year, and used the proceeds to buy back $40bn in shares, and increased dividends. Do buybacks boost EPS? Seems like they shouldn't...is there an alternative measure of total S&P net profits by year http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/table?f=m i...
by Valuethinker
Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pete Mladina talks about factors that drive REIT returns
Replies: 1
Views: 234

Re: Pete Mladina talks about factors that drive REIT returns

Google REITs on SSRN which has many academic papers (it has been taken over by Elsevier, and they are starting to pull the free stuff, but give it a shot). Also CFA Institute website. There is Journal of Portfolio Management. CFA Journal. Those are big sources of academic papers. There is a Journal ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

Good luck with that. Deutche has 42 Trillion in gross derivative exposure. Germany's total GDP is 3 Trillion. A number of funds (10 of 200) that clear derivative trades with DB are already moving capital to other banks, fearing that 2008 Lehman Brothers-esque collapse is possible. It will be an int...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?
Replies: 64
Views: 3307

Re: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?

As a sometime buyer/seller on Amazon, it never ceases to astonish me why it is so popular. Probably great marketing and PR, combined with the advantages of a pioneer and the marketing vision of Jeff Bezos. Buyers can usually do better. The company's only real goal is to maximize the power and wealt...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?
Replies: 64
Views: 3307

Re: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?

Another thing to consider is that as of mid September, there were 4.5 million shares of short interest in the stock. I don't know what that means other than that there are lots of people out there who believe the stock is going to retrace and want to profit on that. It also means that 4.5 million s...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?
Replies: 64
Views: 3307

Re: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?

As a sometime buyer/seller on Amazon, it never ceases to astonish me why it is so popular. Probably great marketing and PR, combined with the advantages of a pioneer and the marketing vision of Jeff Bezos. Buyers can usually do better. The company's only real goal is to maximize the power and wealt...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

is Deutche Bank (DB) as in bad shape as the market says? Will Germany not interfere? 2014 -32.47% 2015 -16.80% YTD -38.92% Today -8++% Falling knife principle applies. Why if DB has been going down for so long, does it suddenly make sense now for it to go up? On the way back to some kind of stabili...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

is Deutche Bank (DB) as in bad shape as the market says? Will Germany not interfere? 2014 -32.47% 2015 -16.80% YTD -38.92% Today -8++% Falling knife principle applies. Why if DB has been going down for so long, does it suddenly make sense now for it to go up? I have no idea! but I know that DB is a...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Deutche Bank a buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2600

Re: Is Deutche Bank a buy?

Erwin wrote:is Deutche Bank (DB) as in bad shape as the market says? Will Germany not interfere?
2014 -32.47%
2015 -16.80%
YTD -38.92%
Today -8++%


Think Citigroup or Freddie or Fannie in June of 2008.

Cheap?

Fools venture where brave men fear to tread ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series
Replies: 82
Views: 4560

Re: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series

How about a really old one, but totally different: Patrick McGoohan as "The Prisoner." It only ran for one season, and I'm not sure the mystery was ever solved . . . . . Unfortunately very hard to find. possibly originally on CBS then started running repeatedly (just the one season) on PB...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series
Replies: 82
Views: 4560

Re: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series

A Ireland Republic of Doyle o I think 'Republic of Doyle' is actually Canadian, set in Newfoundland? NFLD only joined Confederation in 1949, having been a directly governed colony of the UK until then. It has quite an Irish culture due to shared origins in the fishermen who came across. https://en....
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series
Replies: 82
Views: 4560

Re: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series

In keeping with the BBC genre I second Death in Paradise-can't figure out where season five went and season six is being filmed. I found it on Netflix after seeing it on PBS in Los Angeles. Death in Paradise has great reviews and it's one of the top rated BBC shows as a favorite. Watching Rosemary ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series
Replies: 82
Views: 4560

Re: Request for recommendations: English Mystery TV series

How about a really old one, but totally different: Patrick McGoohan as "The Prisoner." It only ran for one season, and I'm not sure the mystery was ever solved . . . . . Unfortunately very hard to find. PBS for sure ran the whole series in the 1970s-- I remember watching it. Not sure if i...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I take mortgage loan of under 3% and invest the money?
Replies: 29
Views: 2030

Re: Should I take mortgage loan of under 3% and invest the money?

I have a unique mortgage loan and it is almost paid off. I am thinking of taking about $200k-300K out and try to put it to use and invest the money. Here are the details/reasons: -The loan is a combo mortgage/heloc and very flexible so I can pay it down like a heloc and then take money out at whim....
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reit allocation
Replies: 25
Views: 1512

Re: reit allocation

I have REIT's as 10% of my portfolio and consider it as part of my domestic stock allocation. As a simple rule of thumb, that works well ;-). You won't be unpleasantly surprised by the volatility. It is large enough to make a meaningful difference to performance, but no so large a "bet" t...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 2789

Re: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage

Thanks for the responses, I really do appreciate them. To answer a couple questions. It's a 30 year note, Roth IRAs are fully funded, 401ks are not. Then you should consider upping your 401k contributions? Generally though, you are getting a higher "return" by paying off 3.5% pa debt than...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat
Replies: 31
Views: 1483

Re: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat

Most systems in the US are forced air. The insulation and airsealing level of the house would determine the energy consumption. In most legacy stick-built houses in the US (versus masonry in the UK) airsealing (drafts) is the bigger issue, but both can be improved as a retrofit without too much exp...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat
Replies: 31
Views: 1483

Re: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat

They also mean it's not safe to vent the dryer into your basement to recover the waste heat, if that's something you want to do. For most homeowners its not even a good idea to vent an electric dryer indoors. Doing so add a tremendous amount of humidity in a basement and in many regions people stru...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage
Replies: 42
Views: 2789

Re: Sorry, but tell [me] what to do with my mortgage

Thanks for the responses, I really do appreciate them. To answer a couple questions. It's a 30 year note, Roth IRAs are fully funded, 401ks are not. Then you should consider upping your 401k contributions? Generally though, you are getting a higher "return" by paying off 3.5% pa debt than...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reit allocation
Replies: 25
Views: 1512

Re: reit allocation

Given the volatility REIT index showed during the 2008-09 crash, I would suggest treating it as equity. I don't think this is sufficient evidence. In 2008 the real estate market blew up, crashing the market. In 1979 the bond market blew up, crashing the market. 3) The word "bond" has a co...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat
Replies: 31
Views: 1483

Re: Choosing home with Natural Gas vs Oil Heat

In NJ the climate is mild enough for a Heat Pump. Electrical costs are low, regulated, getting greener all the time. Its Future Proof. I converted my 1960 Oil-fired house to one heated by a Heat Pump, and scrapped the boiler. The HP looks like a slightly oversized central AC system, and cut my heat...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 5:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reit allocation
Replies: 25
Views: 1512

Re: reit allocation

Given the volatility REIT index showed during the 2008-09 crash, I would suggest treating it as equity. It is true that the total return of REITs has a much greater percentage of dividend income (v. price return) than other sectors. And that particularly with regard to correlation with inflation, RE...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?
Replies: 64
Views: 3307

Re: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?

I'm an investor in VTSMX, and do not hold any individual stocks. But I have to admit, watching AMZN go from 400 to 500 to 600... and now cross 820... I'm tempted! I don't want to be, I *know* the virtues of index funds and all of that. That said - and maybe this is what Mr, Bogle means when he says...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?
Replies: 64
Views: 3307

Re: Has anyone been tempted to buy AMZN?

I'm not "more tempted" per se. Amazon, in theory, seems pretty strong in multiple sectors (revenue generation is diversified), and generally seemed like a company that would do well long term. I wondered if I was letting a good thing pass me by, you know? I felt this way because of the sh...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail business model question
Replies: 6
Views: 492

Re: Retail business model question

I think if you compare the regular prices of those products with the prices at other large chains, such as Walmart orTarget, that the prices are high enough that they can make a profit, even with the coupons. I also think that these coupons are not targeted to you based on your shopping history. I ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 4:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail business model question
Replies: 6
Views: 492

Re: Retail business model question

One thing. Retail is all about fixed cost. If they make a gross profit on you spending $100, say they make $10 gross profit instead of $20- $10 coupon. If they manage to sell you something extra at a 50% gross margin, say a $2 product, they have increased their profits by 10%. That doesn't increase ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper
Replies: 61
Views: 5124

Re: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper

True, but if the ARV of my home reno was $100/sqft over comparable properties, I'd save myself the stress and just buy from the existing inventory. It's only worth the aggravation if I'm also getting a discount for my efforts. Or maybe being compensated for my efforts. Most of us went for heavy ren...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?
Replies: 27
Views: 2045

Re: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?

Buy Potash stocks - any green plant needs fertilizer to grow well, unless you want to invest in a guano tailings plant. :P Problem is potash the mineral is not in short supply, the prices of Potash Corp and the other big producers (Ukrainian?) have plunged. So Potash Inc is planning to merge with A...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper
Replies: 61
Views: 5124

Re: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper

7/1 at 2.3825% with no points? Is this a jumbo loan? If so, can you share the name of your broker? Rates have gone up. It's now 2.5% for jumbo loans. It's with bank of America. I wouldn't take out a huge loan (relative to my means) without certainty of monthly payment. I can afford to float because...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 6:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?
Replies: 27
Views: 2045

Re: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?

Underpinning this is there is a huge difference between the use of a powerful substance for medical reasons, and for recreational. Investing in the former is sensible, the latter ? I realise the way this has played out, that's not a distinction which is hugely valid (flexibility of medical v. recrea...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?
Replies: 8
Views: 399

Re: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?

Just note. The currency of denomination of funds doesn't matter. If you have a global equity fund that reports in GBP, that doesn't matter if you are a NZD based investor. The various investments will go up and down with movements in markets and the currency, and each day the accounting team will ca...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?
Replies: 27
Views: 2045

Re: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?

I personally steer clear of individual stocks. Here is a link to a few. http://investorplace.com/2016/02/marijuana-stocks-gwph-insy-trtc/#.V-uWy1QrKHt Full credit to the guy, that's actually quite a sensible article. His analogy to other products that "went big" as stocks before they were...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?
Replies: 8
Views: 399

Re: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?

I would get a NZ broker and look to buying ETFs. You want a global equity one, and you are probably safe enough with NZ government bonds, although a global developed country investment grade government bond fund would also work. Main question is whether to hedge currency exposure and that depends o...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 4:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?
Replies: 8
Views: 399

Re: Transferred cash to UK account. Now what?

Hey, thanks for the reply :) Good point about the tax. It looks like NZ residents are taxed on all of their worldwide income: http://www.ird.govt.nz/international/comingleaving/coming/payingtax/coming-to-nz-payingtax.html So I guess I would need to include any profit from my fund in my tax return -...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How it really feels to have investments during a bear market?
Replies: 74
Views: 5451

Re: How it really feels to have investments during a bear market?

I am only curious, how does it really feels when the market "crashes"? How difficult is it to fight (sheep following) and not locking your losses? Or it is not that difficult after all with good education? The market dropped over 10% earlier this year. How did that feel to you? Did you ev...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper
Replies: 61
Views: 5124

Re: Loan on $1.3MM Fixer-upper

I will walking the house with a GC next weekend. We'll be using my FIL's friend who helped them with their kitchen remodel. The house about 48 years old. Seems structurally sound. Of course, this will become clearer after the inspections. I expect to replace plumbing ($10k), ducting($10k),HVAC($10k...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at preferreds,
Replies: 10
Views: 829

Re: A look at preferreds,

Great article. I've never understood the interest in preferred stock. Seems to me that Hi-Yield debt would give similar or better yield with less risk. Bond holders are senior to preferred equity holders. I don't own either, just my opinion. IIRC preferred stock historically has had lower yields an...
by Valuethinker
Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?
Replies: 27
Views: 2045

Re: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?

I think it will be a while before we see all tickers WEED, GNJA, and TOKE; but, you can "invest" in MJNA, Medical Marijuana, Inc. (OTC). ----RISK RISK RISK ---- Medical Marijuana Inc (OTCMKTS:MJNA) has been in steep decline in recent months since it popped to over $0.20 in November of las...

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