Search found 32946 matches

by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2018 or 2008 redux
Replies: 6
Views: 544

Re: 2018 or 2008 redux

When I look at the Bitcoin euphoria, I wonder if the prediction of the NYT article is not correct. There are always bubbles going on. During the 2002-04 period, when the stock market was in a slump and then beginning a recovery, there was a boom in mining stocks in London. Eventually that too turne...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding a junk bond of a company that's spiraling toward bankruptcy
Replies: 7
Views: 689

Re: Holding a junk bond of a company that's spiraling toward bankruptcy

All, I have a small dilemma. I have a corporate bond, CUSIP 35906AAP3, of Frontier Communications. Frontier appears to be spiraling toward bankruptcy. The company's stock has lost 80% of its value in a single year; its dividend yield is nearly 27%; the bond itself is rated B3 by Moody's. This is a ...
by Valuethinker
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Holding a junk bond of a company that's spiraling toward bankruptcy
Replies: 7
Views: 689

Re: Holding a junk bond of a company that's spiraling toward bankruptcy

All, I have a small dilemma. I have a corporate bond, CUSIP 35906AAP3, of Frontier Communications. Frontier appears to be spiraling toward bankruptcy. The company's stock has lost 80% of its value in a single year; its dividend yield is nearly 27%; the bond itself is rated B3 by Moody's. This is a ...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 187
Views: 17230

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

This is an argument AGAINST bitcoin, because the vast majority of people (at least in the U.S.) do not have a complete lack of faith in the U.S. government or the banks, and money has not been devalued here (Inflation is low). So it will not be adopted by the masses, if that's the reason for bitcoi...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vectors"
Replies: 5
Views: 904

Re: "Vectors"

Bogleheads: For many years in the past, I was a financial newsletter junkie who, once a month, would go to the main Miami library to read the latest financial newsletters (20-30). Today, we have countless online newsletters. Most are filled with can't lose stocks to buy now, economic forecasts, mar...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 187
Views: 17230

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

You do realize that the implementation of Bitcoin itself was experiment at a possible solution to the the complete lack of faith in governments and central banks where banks are bailed out by printing money out of thin air at the expense of everyone whose money is devalued? This is an argument AGAI...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3439

Re: Pakistan Real Estate?

As a Pakistani whose family has multiple homes and properties in Pakistan, I would say if you are not a national don't bother. Yes the growth in the market is amazing. The population explosion, plus the CPEC puts a lot of pressure on homes and housing but remember that the government is unstable, r...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3439

Re: Pakistan Real Estate?

I think my broker (Fidelity) lets me buy such international securities. I'll check tomorrow. https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=DCR:KAR I can't see an option to buy this REIT (DCR:KAR). If you figure out how to buy, kindly share. Be very careful of US PFIC rules. For a US taxp...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Variable Annuities / REITs
Replies: 11
Views: 733

Re: Vanguard Variable Annuities / REITs

For someone who does not have the room for REITs in tax advantaged accounts and wants to tilt in that direction, is the Vanguard REIT index variable annuity a good option? It seems like the expenses are not too bad - just a 0.56% expense ratio. Am I missing something? I have long struggled with the...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: South American bank interest rates question
Replies: 10
Views: 820

Re: South American bank interest rates question

If not clear, there has to be some limit to arbitrage. Something prevents Americans, say, from depositing their savings in Ecuadorian banks at 8% interest rates v 1% at home. (arguing against that, there was no such barrier within the Eurozone. A Cypriot bank account could easily be opened in London...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 11192

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

This is a fabulous thread...entertaining and so informative. Forgive my ignorance on monetary policy, but can the Federal Reserve come up with a cryptocurrency? In other words, can they decide one day that they will substitute the dollar for their own cryptocurrency? In Europe many countries were s...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kerosene Heater (for power-out emergencies)
Replies: 33
Views: 1636

Re: Kerosene Heater (for power-out emergencies)

I've been researching heaters I could use here in New England if we get a lengthy power outage. We've had a few over the years that lasted 10-15 hours, and it doesn't take long for the indoor/outdoor temps to equalize. We have a wood stove in one room that will heat that room nicely, but I'm trying...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Kerosene Heater (for power-out emergencies)
Replies: 33
Views: 1636

Re: Kerosene Heater (for power-out emergencies)

A small generator and a box fan in a doorway will move the heat from your wood stove around. Then you can also run lights, and plug the fridge in to keep your food good if the outage turns out to be long. Be very aware of the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. It kills about 430 people per year, an...
by Valuethinker
Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: South American bank interest rates question
Replies: 10
Views: 820

Re: South American bank interest rates question

I am not getting into a South American bank. This is a question for someone else who is a resident and naturalized citizen of Ecuador. They claim to give crazy interest rates for savings accounts. I've searched a lot on this and it's a legitimate return, provided the bank is accredited properly. Th...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3848

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

...You forgot that your car takes over from you when you are braking or if manoeuvring violently... Indeed. And it is an interesting question how my car prioritizes protecting my life versus protecting the lives of others. "The trolley problem". It offends me as a philosophical problem, because it ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home
Replies: 15
Views: 3848

Re: Scary episode with "intruder" in the home ... Google Home

We are further down the road toward bad 1950s SF about robot domination than I expected to see in my lifetime. It's not obvious because so many of the things that are happening are "merely" strong nudges, not total compulsion, and because the weird artificial not-quite-intelligence of Google, Siri,...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin
Replies: 7
Views: 1570

Re: Robert Shiller warming up to Bitcoin

I'm not a big advocate of crypto currencies but I can't stand when people just throw out the tulip argument. It's just such a lazy cop out. Mississippi Land Company and the invention of paper money? (John Law, Paris 1720) South Sea Bubble (London 1711)? Mining stocks? (more times than I can count, ...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3439

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

In the cities it's not uncommon to find a person owning 2-3 houses (each worth $250-350K), 3-4 lots (some worth over $100k). Think about what you just wrote here. "It's not uncommon" means "it is common". AlohaJoe I totally agree with you but this may simply be the Pakistani/ Indian way of communic...
by Valuethinker
Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3439

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

The risks were worth if you had done it 10 to 15 years ago...Now I doubt it.. Anyway what do we have going in Pakistan that is contributing to growth??? IT...??? . I don't know.. I don't see anything significant that is making the country grow.. Unlike India. Which has all sorts of stuff going on.....
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Trip to Russia
Replies: 81
Views: 4258

Re: A Trip to Russia

I've been to Russia twice and I agree with virtually all of the comments you've already received regarding places to see. We were there on two separate cruises: 1. Moscow to St. Petersburg river cruise with Uniworld. About 2 weeks with 3 days each in Moscow and St. Petersburg. 2. Two day visit to S...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: A Trip to Russia
Replies: 81
Views: 4258

Re: A Trip to Russia

I have left the USSR over thirty years ago and have not been back. Obviously, a lot has changed since then, but some authentic experiences probably remain: 1. Take an over-night train from Moscow to St Petersburg, or the other way around, and try a real Russian tea served by the train conductor. 2....
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2279

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

I have I guess what you may call, a phobia, of selling my investments. When I buy something, I plan on holding it essentially until I die and passing it on. This may be good for growing a portfolio, but I also don't believe it will allow me to improve my quality of life with extra funds, if I ever ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1885

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

I cashed out all my initial capital yesterday as Bitcoin was falling precipitously. Now just have house money in a small amount of crypto. Bitcoin is now back to almost $17K!! I guess I shouldn't have panic sold. The reason I sold was because I realized that I bought Bitcoin not because I believed ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?
Replies: 36
Views: 2279

Re: TSM vs High Dividend Yield if I never choose to sell?

Captain Kangaroo, Hello & nice meeting you. If I were you (knowing what I know) this is exactly what I would do. I would invest the whole $2 Million into the Vanguard Balanced Fund 60% stocks/40% bonds & not worry about it for the rest of my life... then pass it on to the next generation. Reasons: ...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1885

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

One other general point is because the runup in Bitcoins has been so relatively rapid recently, a crash soon would mean in many cases allot of any losses would be effectively "paper" ones than people actually all losing that level of money in term of their actual invested money they put into bitcoi...
by Valuethinker
Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 2445

Re: Bitcoin IRA

WanderingDoc wrote:
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:45 am
Makes me wonder.. If Bitcoin goes to $20K by end of 2017, 40K by 2018, and $100K by 2020, will people on this board keep saying "too late to the game" "end of the Bitcoin bubble" then? :D
In a word.. yes.
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1885

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

Nothing. The total value of all bitcoin is a rounding error compared to the trillions in assets moving around the world daily. I’m not so sure. With exchanges opening up leverage and derivatives will more and more become part of the game. These will amplify the effects of price movement of the unde...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 2445

Re: Bitcoin IRA

Dear Bogleheads, Happy Holidays! I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year! Lately, I have received a lot of information in my email box in regards to Bitcoin Stock/Bitcoin IRA investment. The stock price for Bitcoin has gone crazy over $1,000/share. I have maximiz...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?
Replies: 38
Views: 2400

Re: likely date for a bitcoin crash: does this make sense to you?

Someone I know (who seems to have been pretty succesful in money management) pointed out the following, when asked about Bitcoin: 'There are certain times in the year: Tulips – first week of September 1637 Wall Street 1929 - September 3rd Gold 1980 - January 21st UK Tech mania 1999 - December 31st ...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1885

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

My limited knowledge of bitcoin see it simply as a hyped-up and speculative currency with no ties to anything of real value. What (if anything) would a crash do to the general stock market? If Bitcoin is currently capitalized at around $300bn the loss of that money is trivial (less than half the ma...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?
Replies: 25
Views: 1885

Re: Would a Bitcoin Crash affect the general markets?

My limited knowledge of bitcoin see it simply as a hyped-up and speculative currency with no ties to anything of real value. What (if anything) would a crash do to the general stock market? If Bitcoin is currently capitalized at around $300bn the loss of that money is trivial (less than half the ma...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1160

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

Sorting based on dividends produced a 9.57% return premium from 1st quintile to 5th quintile, with 5.27% less volatility as measured by standard deviation!?! Forgive me if I don't believe that. Unfortunately, I can't quite spot what is wrong, but there is simply no way that is the whole story. http...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?
Replies: 8
Views: 872

Re: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?

To Valuethinker. I thought the futures would be going out only to January and February. That is more of an option timeframe than a future. I have never traded futures, just optiions. I though they were essentially the same thing, excepting farther out. From what you say, there is no way to close ou...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions
Replies: 85
Views: 8062

Re: Jack Bogle Is Worried About U.S. Pensions

This nation has overcome many a challenge since its founding in 1787. This will be no different, we will find a way. +1 Although the US has always been a young country. The demographic challenge of aging is hardly unique to the USA. In fact it faces all the developed nations at once, and the larges...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pakistan Real Estate?
Replies: 38
Views: 3439

Re: Dubai and Pakistan Real Estate?

Yes, so that's why I made this post. To find out if there is another aspect to this. As to why Pakistan and not other developing countries. Because it's doable for me. I have citizenship, good friends here, I also know the language. My total stock index ROI isn't even close to what people are getti...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I find this quote entertaining: "Tulips are not durable, not scarce, not programmable, not fungible, not verifiable, not divisible, and hard to transfer. But tell me more about your analogy..." Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology aren't going anywhere. Bitcoin may eventually fall, but others w...
by Valuethinker
Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I find this quote entertaining: "Tulips are not durable, not scarce, not programmable, not fungible, not verifiable, not divisible, and hard to transfer. But tell me more about your analogy..." Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology aren't going anywhere. Bitcoin may eventually fall, but others w...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 3124
Views: 920065

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

Paddington 2 Paddington, the Bear from Peru, so-called because he was found at Paddington Station (and based on a stuffed bear Michael Bond saw in the station). Lives with the Brown Family off Portobello Road in West London (think the movie Notting Hill with Julia Roberts and Hugh Grant). In an ant...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

This was just too good (and relevant) not to post. What a world we live in that the Onion would provide such a good explanation! The Onion has almost ceased to be funny the last 2-3 years because reality has paced it. In fact, sometimes I have to check whether I am reading the Onion, or the actual ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 54
Views: 4335

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Less than the one trillion dollar coin the Treasury considered minting to nullify the debt ceiling. http://www.businessinsider.com/trillion-dollar-coin-on-debt-ceiling-treasury-2015-10 And people say Bitcoin is money out of thin air again. But that was because of a stupid legislative thing, so some...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 54
Views: 4335

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

$20,345 I hope this bubble bursts soon as this whole thing is killing me inside. Several months ago a friend said we should invest in crypto. I said it was stupid and listed multiple times all the reasons why it is stupid. And yet here we are. Fear Of Missing Out. Might be wise to go back and read ...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Critique my portfolio (EU-based)
Replies: 2
Views: 169

Re: Critique my portfolio (EU-based)

Hi, I read the book recently and have questions about my portfolio. First off: Emergency funds: Yes, I have three to four months work. I also have a pension scheme and my employment is secure. Debt: A business loan of USD1000. 7.5%. This will be paid off in January. Tax Filing Status: Married Tax R...
by Valuethinker
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?
Replies: 8
Views: 872

Re: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?

Another Bitcoin thread. Just for fun. Sunday night Bitcoin futures are happening. Thinking about this I came up with the following speculation. Using AMZN as basis I came up with some possible figures to consider. AMZN is a much traded stick of high valuation. The options chains are traded heavily....
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Somewhere back I read that evidence seems to support the semi-strong form as the most reflective of current stock markets. It's definitely not strong form. at any rate, is bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history? I don't think that's even close to remotely true, either in real or nom...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond options - What would you do?
Replies: 6
Views: 704

Re: Bond options - What would you do?

Bond funds available in 401(k): VAIPX Vanguard Inflation-Protected 0.1% PTRAX Pimco Total Return 0.76% MWTRX Metropolitan West Total Return Bond 0.67% FAGIX Fidelity Capital & Income 0.73% (not super interested in high-yield here) Thoughts specifically on #2, holding VAPIX in the 401(k)? Any other ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Acts of war term insurance?
Replies: 17
Views: 1600

Re: Acts of war term insurance?

As for calling/emailing these companies in search of combat zone/war clauses, you're sending the OP down a rabbit hole for something that will very likely yield only negative results. Combat zone/war clauses are standard boiler plate exemptions on typical life insurance contracts (been there, done ...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

It's definitely a bubble, but likely not the largest in history. I do think it's bigger than either RE in 2007/2008 or oil in 2013 though. Here's my reasoning: Bubbles are all about overvaluing a thing. The closest thing Bitcoin has to an intrinsic value is the cost of production. Right now, one of...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

Is Salvator Mundi at $450M in a bubble? One painting can't be a bubble. What is the market in Old Masters paintings doing in general? Well the Hedge Funds were driving up the price of modern art-- you weren't a proper HF if you didn't have some Damien Hirst or something, let alone an Andy Warhol. I...
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

rkhusky wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:13 am
Is Salvator Mundi at $450M in a bubble?
Quite possibly, given the identity of the purchaser.

Remember it was the purchase of the Van Gogh "Sunflowers" for a record $37 million dollars in 1987 to a Japanese purchaser that nearly called the peak of their bubble.
by Valuethinker
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?
Replies: 88
Views: 6639

Re: Bitcoin now the largest quantifiable bubble in history?

I agree with most of this, but the strong version of the efficient market hypothesis cannot be correct. For if it were, it would be impossible ever to identify a bubble while it was in progress. This is clearly incorrect because quite a few people identified the NASDAQ dotcom bubble while it was in...