Search found 168 matches

by Top99%
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sobering article for my 25 year old self
Replies: 57
Views: 6491

Re: Sobering article for my 25 year old self

There is a cost for every choice. It is easy to go just save 30%+ and all will be good. The question is what is the price. What are you giving up by making that choice. If you don't care (i.e. living in a 1500 sq ft house instead of 2k, not going to disney land, bmw) it is an easy choice. If it som...
by Top99%
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sobering article for my 25 year old self
Replies: 57
Views: 6491

Re: Sobering article for my 25 year old self

Hi, For those of you starting out and contemplating spending money on fancy new cars, cable TV, $1,100 iPhones (on installment plan) etc. Vs saving more please do your self a favor and read this article https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/11/01/shockingly-simple-complicated-random-math-behind-early...
by Top99%
Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sobering article for my 25 year old self
Replies: 57
Views: 6491

Sobering article for my 25 year old self

Hi, For those of you starting out and contemplating spending money on fancy new cars, cable TV, $1,100 iPhones (on installment plan) etc. Vs saving more please do your self a favor and read this article https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/11/01/shockingly-simple-complicated-random-math-behind-early-...
by Top99%
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom
Replies: 48
Views: 10105

Re: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom

in that case, his net worth is not even 1x his annual after tax income. what do most people shoot for in retirement around here? net liquid assets of about 25x expenses? This article might sober things up a bit: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/11/01/shockingly-simple-complicated-random-math-beh...
by Top99%
Tue Nov 14, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom
Replies: 48
Views: 10105

Re: 35 yr-old doc needs some wisdom

If you insist on having a luxury car, consider a Lexus. Buy it outright and keep for 10yrs. I like my LS 460. A fellow physician. +1. Cars are by far the best opportunity to reduce spending and increase savings. We went from Mercedes to Toyotas 15 years ago and after a few weeks didn't miss the "lu...
by Top99%
Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.
Replies: 122
Views: 11454

Re: The fear of retirement, black swan, and math to dissuade the fear.

Excellent examples. I am frustrated on behalf of the Black Swans that people are trivializing them as garden-variety setbacks. Victoria If any of those kind of black swan events happen and assets aren't completely worthless then those with assets will be in a better position than those without. If ...
by Top99%
Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get a job with regular working hours after a long break?
Replies: 7
Views: 1017

Re: How to get a job with regular working hours after a long break?

Have you considered cybersecurity? This might let you tap your technical background while letting you do something other than coding or management. The unemployment rate of cybersecurity professionals is negative right now and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future. Obviously you would...
by Top99%
Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When would you take a part-time option?
Replies: 23
Views: 1712

Re: When would you take a part-time option?

I am 56 and went part time (4 days / week) last February. My wife has been "retired" from paying work for 11+ years now. The reasons I went part time instead of just outright retiring: 1) Transitioning from aggressively saving to tapping our nest egg is difficult psychologically for me even though w...
by Top99%
Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"
Replies: 17
Views: 2443

Re: "What's Your Uncertainty/Humility Score?"

Thanks for posting an interesting article. My two big takeaways are " Things could go wrong, but tolerating uncertainty and risk--both major and minor--is how we get things done and make progress." and "be open to mid-course corrections". There is no such thing as "risk free" investing. For example,...
by Top99%
Tue Oct 31, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Asset Type Matters With Factors
Replies: 1
Views: 664

Re: Larry Swedroe: Asset Type Matters With Factors

This is interesting to me as I work my way through Tyler Cowen's "The Complacent Class". I just finished a chapter that presented evidence that highly profitable and dominant firms (IE high "quality") are increasingly difficult to knock from their perches. Microsoft certainly spent plenty of money t...
by Top99%
Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Purchase Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1211

Re: Home Purchase Advice

Regarding the HOA fees, since you mentioned the home is new I suggest checking if the builder is subsidizing the HOA. If so once the builder finishes with the project the HOA fee might take a big jump. I would also make sure the HOA has reserves of at least 6 months of HOA dues for big maintenance i...
by Top99%
Tue Oct 31, 2017 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?
Replies: 84
Views: 5408

Re: New Car: Ever make sense to lease?

People have already covered the lease Vs buy angle so I will address the AWD Vs FWD angle. Unless you need to scale steep snow covered hills on a regular basis FWD + winter tires will be fine. If you Google "winter tires Vs AWD" you will find numerous articles on how winter tires make a huge differe...
by Top99%
Sun Oct 22, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?
Replies: 33
Views: 6269

Re: When one reaches the 1 million mark what to do with all the money?

The only thing not already mentioned I would consider is getting a $2m Umbrella Liability Insurance policy. A non-obvious but important thing this buys you is access to a highly motivated defense lawyer should get sued. Basically the insurance company is highly motivated to defend you. If you search...
by Top99%
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: just hit the two comma club today...some thoughts
Replies: 37
Views: 5577

Re: just hit the two comma club today...some thoughts

Congratulations and well done. You seem to have The Millionaire Next Door mindset down well :sharebeer
by Top99%
Sun Oct 22, 2017 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?
Replies: 33
Views: 4418

Re: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?

Technology advance has suppressed inflation pressure, no doubt. The other major factor is globalization which allows production capital to flow to cheaper labor markets and lower the cost of production. Current tariff structures then allow less expensive goods produced in EM to flow back into DM wi...
by Top99%
Thu Oct 19, 2017 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"
Replies: 16
Views: 2101

Re: "Investment Lessons From The 21st Century"

Given I already knew equity values can crash the main thing I have learned so far this century is interest rates and bond yields can go a lot lower and stay there a lot longer than the "experts" predicted. I guess coming of age during the 70s - 90s I had a view that "normal" interest rates on 1 year...
by Top99%
Wed Oct 18, 2017 7:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 56
Views: 5009

Re: The overselling of international diversification

https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_KeyInd_2017.pdf :sharebeer +1 My favorite visual piece of evidence for the value of diversification. I am also part way through Tyler Cowen's "The Complacent Class" and this book is also convincing me not to put 100% of my equity ...
by Top99%
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession
Replies: 45
Views: 4368

Re: 10 year anniversary of the beginning of the Great Recession

I was 46 and while in the end increasing our equity allocation helped us a lot I remember being dismayed with losing membership to the 2 comma club at the bottom. What I remember most was on a business trip in early 2009 the hotel and restaurants were nearly empty. I talked to some of the employees ...
by Top99%
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2 diff devices for Lastpass MFA
Replies: 3
Views: 406

Re: 2 diff devices for Lastpass MFA

If the remedy suggested by Nummerkins doesn't work an alternative is to use Grid authentication and keep a copy of the grid on each device. We use that for a combination of 2 different computers, an iPad and 2 phones for my wife and I and it works well and is simple. It is definitely worth your effo...
by Top99%
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which Streaming Service/Live TV?
Replies: 53
Views: 4913

Re: Which Streaming Service/Live TV?

We also cut the cord and now have Netflix plus a Silicon Dust HD Home Run connected to an antenna in the attic. The HD Home Run + Windows7 Media Center gives us full DVR capability for over the air TV for 2 channels at once. The nice thing about using Media Center as our DVR is we can use whatever s...
by Top99%
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Career Advice for those over "50"
Replies: 60
Views: 6472

Re: Best Career Advice for those over "50"

I am 56, in technology and part time. What I am convinced has helped me avoid getting laid off over the past 30 years is viewing myself as a business which sells services to my employer. So, my services need to be something my employer needs and delivered with the right balance of quality, quantity ...
by Top99%
Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My boneheaded financial mistakes
Replies: 77
Views: 9803

Re: My boneheaded financial mistakes

Kept repeating the cell phone contract nonsense for years until Sprint raised my plan one too many times in 2010. could you clarify the cell phone nonsense? just to make sure it’s not something we are doing on accident 😳 Switched from contract carriers to non-contract carriers. First was Straight T...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 27yo looking for advice on first house budget
Replies: 29
Views: 2555

Re: 27yo looking for advice on first house budget

Rent for a couple more years...save/invest as much money as possible. Retire when you're 45. Winning! So I guess I am now +4 on renting. Of all the regrets my wife and I have high on the list is buying a house before we really *needed* one. At the very least spend some time researching housing pric...
by Top99%
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My boneheaded financial mistakes
Replies: 77
Views: 9803

Re: My boneheaded financial mistakes

My list is also long and I will take the time to post it to hopefully help others from making the same mistakes: 1) Trading in my perfectly usable used car for a new car that cost ~33% of my gross income 2 months after I landed my 1st job. The loan was at 15.75% (1985). 2) Spending enough that we ca...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 12
Views: 2649

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

Personally, I would be satisfied, even if not thrilled, to have his forecast of 5-8% equity returns realized. I have ramped up savings so that we can attain our portfolio goals even with low returns. If they are materially better, then we will retire slightly earlier or drink better wine in retirem...
by Top99%
Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?
Replies: 23
Views: 1918

Re: Bond funds and stock funds, which one is riskier?

I often see the "put option prices for stocks get more expensive for longer durations therefore risk increases with duration" argument. The problem is one is paying for the option of exercising the put *at any time* during the period Vs at the end of the period. So, this will cost more for longer ti...
by Top99%
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 10089

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

My best guess is sideways but that wasn't a choice.
by Top99%
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you will adapt your spending, you money will last longer.
Replies: 8
Views: 1568

Re: If you will adapt your spending, you money will last longer.

Yet another gem from the financial writer who had a huge (and positive) impact on me. Scott Burns hooked me with his "couch potato portfolio" articles and I have been a fan ever since then. I completely agree and we have a very low spending floor relative to our "desired" spending level. When times ...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 62
Views: 4045

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I found "Burn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels" by Dieter Helm a good read on this topic. I certainly won't go out and short energy companies but I am pretty convinced their best days are behind them and the trend for energy prices is down. But, this also seems to be priced into their valuations. I...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 49
Views: 3865

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

Going back in time and getting a do-over would be a great way to boost one's returns :moneybag We started investing via 401Ks in the mid-80s but I really can't even remember what we were buying. In the late 90s during the waning our of the big tech bubble party I dabbled in some individual stocks wi...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?
Replies: 28
Views: 11777

Re: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?

Thanks Nisiprius, that's a very helpful explanation. I think I like the idea of interfering with Equifax's business of selling my information :) +1 on thanking Nisiprius. If a lot of targets (er, I meant customers) of Experian and Transunion do end up getting freezes I could see Experian and Transu...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a mess
Replies: 21
Views: 3612

Re: Equifax is a mess

Iliketoridemybike wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:51 pm
Can't get into Transunion and have been trying for awhile.
We ran into the same issue and finally resorted to certified snail mail.
by Top99%
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.
Replies: 63
Views: 7273

Re: Physiological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.

... have about 65x expenses ... I receive very little satisfaction out of the job. I don't like it ... feels like I'm losing something. Francis To me there are 4 potential *losses* when one leaves a job: 1) Loss of the satisfaction of doing the job itself - doesn't apply to you 2) Loss of the incom...
by Top99%
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4111

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

I think all but 3 and 4 make sense and the one you pick depends on your ability, need and willingness to take risk. We are doing a combination of 2 (being conservative with our SWR) and 6. If we were still accumulating we would definitely lean more towards saving more than increasing risk.
by Top99%
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestone Reached - "Quarter Millionaire!"
Replies: 41
Views: 5033

Re: Milestone Reached - "Quarter Millionaire!"

Congratulations and I think $250K is actually a harder milestone to reach than $1m. Now that you have demonstrated good saving and investing habits $1m should arrive pretty quickly. :sharebeer
by Top99%
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocate for Early Retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 3895

Re: Relocate for Early Retirement?

Unless you plan on moving twice during retirement one big consideration is access to quality medical personnel and facilities. This can be a big problem in many LCOL. My wife and I were torn between Sedona AZ and Austin TX and chose the latter for that reason. We are 1 mile from a Costco :happy Aust...
by Top99%
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flood Insurance when not in flood plain?
Replies: 39
Views: 3653

Re: Flood Insurance when not in flood plain?

We live on the side of a 200 foot hill but our house flooded due to a drainage issue in an interior courtyard. Standard homeowner's insurance definitely will not cover scenarios where water enters your home via the outside ground. So if your house sits on land with potential drainage issues you migh...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the main purpose of holding your current job?
Replies: 66
Views: 5807

Re: What is the main purpose of holding your current job?

Along the bell curve shaped continuum of 1-4 I am probably a 1.5 right now after ranging from 1.3 - 4 over my career but averaging in the high 1s. Going part time in February pulled me closer to 1 for sure.
by Top99%
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 52
Views: 6101

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

This thread means it is time for me to whip it out again: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_KeyInd_2017.pdf This is the single best piece of visual evidence I know of for the value diversification. As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the ma...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put These Charts On Your Wall
Replies: 11
Views: 3289

Re: Put These Charts On Your Wall

Thanks for posting and while I found the charts interesting I think the quote "The market doesn't have to do anything and certainly not what you think it should do" equally valuable. I was certainly guilty of thinking bond yields had to go up a couple of years ago but fortunately I didn't have enoug...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to buy/repair before (early) retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3825

Re: Things to buy/repair before (early) retirement

I am of the same mind of a few other posters on this thread: buy/repair when needed or when opportunity presents itself. For example, Harvey destroyed lots of cars so demand for cars will probably spike for a while so delay getting a car until market conditions are more favorable. For major home ren...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences
Replies: 108
Views: 17043

Re: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences

denovo,

Great post and a great counter to the various "make money fast" articles and books on land lording. I will stick with passive investing.
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3632

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

I guess it depends on how you define "predict" but I am banking about 35% of my future on predicting that over the next 40 years stocks will produce positive returns relative to inflation. So I can make a prediction and hopefully it will be correct.
by Top99%
Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is Always Risky
Replies: 42
Views: 3471

Re: The Stock Market Is Always Risky

There is no "risk free" place to invest money in my opinion. Bonds and CDs may have less volatility than stocks but they risk lagging inflation especially in periods of *unexpected* inflation. Alternatives come with alternative risks :oops: Let's face it: retirement is risky for us folks with a nest...
by Top99%
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High-Deductible Health Plan vs. Peace of Mind
Replies: 42
Views: 4411

Re: High-Deductible Health Plan vs. Peace of Mind

Add me to the list of people suggesting HDHP. In almost all cases when buying insurance, get the highest deductible you can afford to minimize your overall lifetime expenditures.
by Top99%
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Christine Benz: "75 Must-Know Statistics About Long-Term Care"
Replies: 24
Views: 3864

Re: Christine Benz: "75 Must-Know Statistics About Long-Term Care"

Thanks for sharing a sobering set of statistics. Insurance generally works best for protecting one from low probability high impact scenarios like house fires, law suites etc. Long Term care is very unfortunately high probability *and* high impact which makes insurance very expensive and in some cas...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book
Replies: 160
Views: 7347

Re: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book

I started reading this book from the position of being convinced the small and value factors have logical explanations and reasons to persist so the book added to my confirmation bias. I was pretty skeptical about momentum (and factors with behavioral explanations) and this book did help convince me...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: white paper: Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment
Replies: 7
Views: 1983

Re: white paper: Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment

Thanks for sharing this and I found the explanation for why bond yields can go negative (holding paper money isn't really practical) pretty helpful in helping me make sense of something that was a complete mystery to me. I am also in the camp of expecting basically zero real returns out of my CDs/bo...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent credit utilization is best?
Replies: 18
Views: 2143

Re: What percent credit utilization is best?

I don't want a range, what do you think is the exact best number? I've heard 4.5% is the sweet spot, but also 2.5%. What do you guys think? I put all my monthly bills and day-to-day expenses on a credit card and pay it off at the end of the month (if not more often). My credit utilization is whatev...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 5266

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

The size of the workforce is not the only way to grow the pie. In terms of returns, I'm skeptical that negative demographic trends will outpace positive ones in productivity. Good point. Most stock and bond investors I’m sure hope you're right, that future global productivity growth will overcome t...