Search found 298 matches

by Top99%
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Money Or Your Life
Replies: 49
Views: 6127

Re: Your Money Or Your Life

My take away when I read Your Money or Your Life years ago: * Figure out what your real wage is (your paycheck minus all the costs of doing your work [gas, commute time, childcare, things you buy because you don't have time to do it yourself]) * When you're buying something, stop and think if it's ...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9452

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

Trying to predict the future with math and past performance. And then we debate it ad nauseum. I like Taylor’s method. Make sure you have a reasonable amount to cover basics (ss, pension, annuity) or enough $ to get there if early retirement. In bad years, you may have to buckle down, not travel, e...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9452

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000...
by Top99%
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 113
Views: 9452

Re: Trinity Study updated to 2018

This is interesting especially given The Retire Early Home Page just updated their "real life retiree returns" http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife18.html table. It looks to me whether 4% "works" depends on both the portfolio and the starting conditions. Comparing the tables for 1994 Vs 2000 ...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1331

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

I don't have much faith in using valuations to set an allocation of stocks vs bonds. Except in situations like 2000 in US, when TIPS had a higher long term expected return than stocks. But I do use valuations to allocate among risky asset classes. Not sure there is any good research on this. I am a...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Newbie Looking to Get Started
Replies: 15
Views: 1202

Re: Newbie Looking to Get Started

http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/ has some great info on shaving expenses although you may find some of it a bit extreme. For your cell phone plans, once your contracts end you can buy cheap phones ands switch to Cricket, Republic Wireless etc. I would consider zeroing out your entire entertainment b...
by Top99%
Wed Apr 04, 2018 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3322

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

Bottomline... In my humble opinion, those past observations, metrics and charts do not seem to tell us much about the current situation in 2017/18. Inflation is tame, interest rates are low, and... the Shiller PE simply has a life of its own. Simplegift- Thanks for starting a great thread. My own t...
by Top99%
Tue Apr 03, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job advice
Replies: 13
Views: 1119

Re: Job advice

Assuming the lower salary doesn't derail your retirement/financial independence plan I would absolutely buy a good chunk of life back by taking the job with the closer commute. If things were a little tight financially with the pay cut I would look at cutting expenses in areas (in my opinion) that h...
by Top99%
Mon Apr 02, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech
Replies: 59
Views: 4622

Re: Career Move: Please convince me why I should not work in tech

I work have worked in tech since 1986 at 3 different Megacorps. Since OP asked why one should NOT work in tech: 1) If you are not good at saving money for a rainy day tech is not a good choice because when it rains it tends to pour. Many tech workers were unemployed for a long period of time in 2001...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?
Replies: 150
Views: 8972

Re: How Do You Value Your Home for Net Worth Purposes?

I view my home as a place to live so I "calculate" the value as about 28x the net annual rental cost per year less the value I could get if I actually sold it. For net annual rental cost I subtract costs I currently pay that the landlord would pay if I rented. My rationale is the alternative would b...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?
Replies: 247
Views: 12602

Re: Healthy eaters -- is this grocery budget normal to you?

My wife and I spend nearly that much as well. We eat a LOT of fish which we generally buy from Whole Foods or from HEB when they offer sustainably fished product. We do keep our costs down a little by eating the fruits, vegetables and fish that are in season. We enjoy really good food and are trying...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?
Replies: 36
Views: 1992

Re: What would you do if you were in charge of a State Pension Fund?

In addition to switching to a low cost passive portfolio mentioned by several posters I would do my best to raise awareness about a responsible sustainable perpetual withdrawal rate (3.0% - 3.5% based on my research). If the State was insisting 6-8% was sustainable I would immediately quit.
by Top99%
Sun Mar 25, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What car should I get
Replies: 35
Views: 2597

Re: What car should I get

I personally think the jury is till out on the long term durability of turbo-charged engines which all trims of the Accord and some of the Civics have gone to. I applaud Toyota for sticking with naturally aspirated engines (for now). Since you mention you keep cars for a long time I this might be a ...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?
Replies: 18
Views: 1627

Re: Which is the hedge against higher future interest rates and inflation: the house or the mortgage?

I guess it depends on how you define your home value as hedging against inflation: 1) Keeping your housing costs relatively fixed relative to renting or 2) The sales value of the home itself keeping up with inflation. Counting my parents home in I have lived in 6 homes in FL, NC and TX since 1978. P...
by Top99%
Tue Mar 20, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent in Retirement
Replies: 35
Views: 3312

Re: Rent in Retirement

I would recommend spending the time to do a fairly detailed analysis on renting Vs owning. There is probably a Google sheet out there with details but some often over-looked costs of owning include: 1) Loss of income on money tied up in the house 2) Repairs / replacement of appliances, roof, hot wat...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1150

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

I am also in the "diversification is more important for longer time frame" camp. Short term CDs or low risk bonds work fine for the short term for me. Longer term I need our portfolio to support a level of spending which may or may not track the growth rate of the CPI since the basket of goods and s...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance
Replies: 16
Views: 1777

Re: Umbrella Insurance

There are some people who have posted real life examples on this board but here are a couple: 1) You are in a car crash which is deemed to be your fault and get sued for an amount of money greater than your auto policy will cover. This happened to at least one person on this board. 2) Someone injure...
by Top99%
Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 127
Views: 12280

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Who knows, my point was that using current data one can invest, do we know that historical data has more predictive value than current data. If we knew historic patterns were a lock to repeat, investing would be easy. That is why we diversify and some of us hold emergency funds. Again to use the ba...
by Top99%
Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 127
Views: 12280

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

I do not think this Forum worships Larry Swedroe, if you have been around a while you know there are some tough critics of his on here. Having said that, I personally enjoy his articles and have read several of his books. Larry is always the first one to say over and over again, that if you have tr...
by Top99%
Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another "Should I self-insure" for LTC Question
Replies: 119
Views: 6959

Re: Another "Should I self-insure" for LTC Question

From the flip side, if you only need 1.6% of your portfolio the LTC does not strain your retirement and you can afford it. Also it isn’t uncommon to pay more than $7k for health insurance, why is it unacceptable to pay that much for LTC? I would think I prefer the peace of mind of having it. The bi...
by Top99%
Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your investment strength?
Replies: 70
Views: 5272

Re: What is your investment strength?

Lack of emotion when it comes to investing. I trust data.
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060
Replies: 22
Views: 3215

Re: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060

A question I have is what would be considered a "normal" real interest rate for the US? A wonderful question. Most of the research I've seen falls into two camps — 1) those who view interest rates as a stationary data series, with reversion to a long-term mean, and 2) and those who reject the stati...
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ratio of minimum vs discretionary retiree couple expenses
Replies: 51
Views: 3047

Re: Ratio of minimum vs discretionary retiree couple expenses

Essential expenses for us, insurance, taxes, food, auto, HOA, prescriptions, etc total about $4000/ month. Discretionary we budget $6000 more a month. That is dining, travel, hobbies, etc. so 40/60 is where we are at and that is living very comfortably. We are very close to those numbers. If times ...
by Top99%
Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060
Replies: 22
Views: 3215

Re: Study: Population Aging and Real Interest Rates, 1960-2060

My feeling is that, in theory, demographics should be be a major driver of interest rates. However, in practice, I believe there are other factors that can swamp the demographic effects. I agree. I think the globalization of capital and goods production is a big factor. While global investment and ...
by Top99%
Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New vehicle research
Replies: 48
Views: 3458

Re: New vehicle research

I will +1 for the Camry but it really comes down to whether your wife wants a CUV or sedan. The new engine and transmission in the Camry really increased the delta in gas mileage between the two. Over 150K miles that $ savings could buy you some nice wine and food (my standard yard stick :wink: ) As...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House vs Condo vs Townhouse
Replies: 36
Views: 2674

Re: House vs Condo vs Townhouse

We live in an end unit 1 story town home with an attached 2 car garage. Ideally we would have like an equivalent sized house with a <6000 square foot yard but in the end the 3 Ls (location, location, location) won out. All the detached homes in our location were either too old, had too big of yards ...
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Schiff Promotes Dividends to Protect Against Speculative Market Valuations
Replies: 22
Views: 2825

Re: Peter Schiff Promotes Dividends to Protect Against Speculative Market Valuations

I think right now the pursuit of dividends has lead to speculative market valuations in many traditional dividend centric assets (utilities, REITs, etc.). That doesn't feel like protection to me.
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Investors Calm Markets?
Replies: 9
Views: 826

Re: Do Index Investors Calm Markets?

Index funds were certainly around in 2008/2009 and the markets seemed anything but calm back then. So, I think not. When people panic they sell.
by Top99%
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?
Replies: 29
Views: 1728

Re: Your Paradigm for Long-term Inflation Risk?

First I view inflation as having 4 sub-categories: 1) Expected inflation as tracked by the CPI 2) Expected inflation in my our personal basket of goods and services which is loosely correlated (at best) with the CPI 3) Unexpected version of 1) 4) Unexpected version of 2) 1) can be mitigated with any...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 28, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?
Replies: 77
Views: 7100

Re: AAPL, AMZN, or GOOG?

I think *as stocks* the best years are behind these companies for reasons others have stated. Once you dominate the TAM (total addressable market) growth is limited by growth of the TAM and that growth and so much more seems priced into these stocks. If I *had* to pick one I would start by eliminati...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 26, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4572

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

One thing that can help mitigate this is to use a dedicated email account for associating with your financial accounts. Use a strong password and multifactor authentication for that email account. Don't use this email account for anything else. Just curious. I've been hesitating to do that, but I'm...
by Top99%
Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Removed
Replies: 39
Views: 3843

Re: Jeremy Grantham [Bracing Yourself for a Possible Near-Term Melt-Up]

My main takeaway from this is it is very risky to try and make money from shorting a bubble or otherwise placing a bet on it popping. That message was also given loud and clear in The Big Short. If we do have a melt up I will just keep rebalancing out of the asset class that has melted up and then b...
by Top99%
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing
Replies: 31
Views: 4572

Re: Evidence that retirement account ID theft is increasing

One thing that can help mitigate this is to use a dedicated email account for associating with your financial accounts. Use a strong password and multifactor authentication for that email account. Don't use this email account for anything else. What I would really like and hopefully some brokers wil...
by Top99%
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Warranty Paid by the Seller
Replies: 17
Views: 1209

Re: Home Warranty Paid by the Seller

This is a custom to provide a home warranty for a year. To be honest, the warranty services all suck. The seller usually pays like $500-700 for it. I would just request a cash credit. +1 Unless you are seriously cash poor, then you should be able to use your emergency fund to cover any problem that...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What UN-frugal thing do you do? What do you splurge on?]
Replies: 567
Views: 37233

Re: What UN-frugal thing do you do?

HA! I recently spent $1500 on a pair of music speakers, yet as I write this response, my slacks are threadbare and my shoes are probably ten years old. I know my priorities. :wink: You reminded me of a 2nd un-frugal thing I have done: spent about double that on speakers. But, over 30+ years it is a...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What UN-frugal thing do you do? What do you splurge on?]
Replies: 567
Views: 37233

Re: What UN-frugal thing do you do?

We spend the money we save from buying cheap cars and keeping them 10+ years on $200 - $300 meals out or $50+ meals in. Basically for our income/asset level we underspend the average on everything except food where we spend probably >300% of average for our income/asset level. In addition to enjoyin...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)
Replies: 25
Views: 2617

Re: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2017 update)

Siamond, Thank you for the effort you put in and there is a lot to unpack. I predict this will become a very long thread. My views on this: 1) one needs to look at historical data and look forward. Looking back helps one see that risk has indeed been rewarded but the reward comes with a cost of high...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How would you proceed at age 29?
Replies: 17
Views: 2433

Re: How would you proceed at age 29?

First of all congratulations for taking the time to think seriously about personal finance in your late 20s. There is some great advice in this thread. I spent 32 years in tech (I am now part time at 56 years old) so my advice is: 1) Keep your skills marketable especially as your age gets north of 4...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 19, 2018 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What seems to matter
Replies: 25
Views: 3712

Re: What seems to matter

A good solid list I would like to take back in time and share with my 24 year old self. The only thing I would add (perhaps just expand #3 on your list) is to think deeply on what makes you happy so you can balance your spending / saving appropriately and get the best happiness per dollar ratio out ...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4844

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

As a slice and dicer myself I think the main evidence against S&D is behavioral. I find the data for my small value tilt form of slice and dice compelling but it can certainly be more challenging to stay the course especially after a long bull market in US equities that has been very favorable for l...
by Top99%
Sun Feb 18, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off ...next steps
Replies: 31
Views: 5176

Re: Laid off ...next steps

I offer condolences and congratulations at the same time for being laid off and for attaining your financial situation respectively. I think your finances will instill a lot of self-confidence when you start the interview process for your next job and that will serve you well. Given your financial s...
by Top99%
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2353

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

It is not only unexpected inflation that is damaging to retirees, but plain old expected inflation - including planned or hoped for inflation by the FRB. I retired at the end of 2001 with a small pension. Call it $1,000 per month. Inflation has averaged almost exactly 2% per year since then. My buy...
by Top99%
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working for a MegaCorp vs a Small Business
Replies: 19
Views: 1402

Re: Working for a MegaCorp vs a Small Business

I have worked for Megacorps for my entire career (starting in 1985). For about 5 of these years I worked in two internal startups within these Megacorps where we were funded by Megacorp but not subject to most of Megacorp's heavy handed processes and policies. Even though both "start ups" crashed an...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2834

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Thanks for linking a great article Dave. Some of the replies about expecting a "punch in the face" by Mr Market now and then are right on. The statement "Those investors allowed their need to take risk to dominate the asset allocation decision, ignoring their ability and willingness to take risk." s...
by Top99%
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deferred Income Annuity
Replies: 10
Views: 1076

Re: Deferred Income Annuity

The big (or real) issue with DIAs is that they don’t provide any inflation protection during the deferral period. Thus, when the payouts actually begin 30 years later in this case, what will that income stream really be worth. That is indeed one big risk and another is 30+ years into the future the...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking career advice - Software Engineer
Replies: 34
Views: 2915

Re: Seeking career advice - Software Engineer

I survived an average of one layoff every 2 years over a 33 year career in first software test and later (starting in 2009) cyber security. Emotionally, I found it helpful to watch war movies / documentaries because they really put things in perspective for me. As for avoiding getting laid off: 1) I...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1424

Re: What are the structure problems with whole life insurance?

Personally I view insurance as most useful for protecting one from low probability but high impact events like house fires, lawsuits or, in the case of life insurance, dying before one has accumulated enough assets to support their dependent(s). Dying is high impact but also high probability over on...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 7786

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

I think first one must decide on their definition of risk. Bill Bernstein's "Deep Risk" helps with that as do many of the threads on this board about the different types of risks of different types of assets. In our case, we tried to pick a portfolio that will do the best job of dealing with short t...
by Top99%
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Anyone Know Anything?
Replies: 36
Views: 3539

Re: Does Anyone Knows Anything?

I know that I know nothing so therefore I know everything. How is that for a wine-induced deep thought? :beer
by Top99%
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"
Replies: 20
Views: 3468

Re: "3 Investing Mistakes to Avoid"

Great thread. I will admit to suffering from "recency bias" but on bonds instead of stocks. Since I came of investing age in the 80s and 90s I assumed: 1) "normal" interest rates (for mid-long term bonds/CDs and 30 year mortgages) were in the 6-8% range. 2) It is "normal" for interest rates to rapid...