Search found 142 matches

by Top99%
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?
Replies: 36
Views: 9698

Re: [Poll] Bull or Bear for Next 5 Years?

My best guess is sideways but that wasn't a choice.
by Top99%
Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you will adapt your spending, you money will last longer.
Replies: 8
Views: 1317

Re: If you will adapt your spending, you money will last longer.

Yet another gem from the financial writer who had a huge (and positive) impact on me. Scott Burns hooked me with his "couch potato portfolio" articles and I have been a fan ever since then. I completely agree and we have a very low spending floor relative to our "desired" spending level. When times ...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 56
Views: 2647

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

I found "Burn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels" by Dieter Helm a good read on this topic. I certainly won't go out and short energy companies but I am pretty convinced their best days are behind them and the trend for energy prices is down. But, this also seems to be priced into their valuations. I...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA if you were just starting out again
Replies: 49
Views: 3191

Re: AA if you were just starting out again

Going back in time and getting a do-over would be a great way to boost one's returns :moneybag We started investing via 401Ks in the mid-80s but I really can't even remember what we were buying. In the late 90s during the waning our of the big tech bubble party I dabbled in some individual stocks wi...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?
Replies: 21
Views: 4313

Re: Why is TransUnion pushing True Identity vs credit freeze?

Thanks Nisiprius, that's a very helpful explanation. I think I like the idea of interfering with Equifax's business of selling my information :) +1 on thanking Nisiprius. If a lot of targets (er, I meant customers) of Experian and Transunion do end up getting freezes I could see Experian and Transu...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 19, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Equifax is a mess
Replies: 21
Views: 3393

Re: Equifax is a mess

Iliketoridemybike wrote:
Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:51 pm
Can't get into Transunion and have been trying for awhile.
We ran into the same issue and finally resorted to certified snail mail.
by Top99%
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.
Replies: 63
Views: 6831

Re: Physiological effects of Early Retirement in peak earning years.

... have about 65x expenses ... I receive very little satisfaction out of the job. I don't like it ... feels like I'm losing something. Francis To me there are 4 potential *losses* when one leaves a job: 1) Loss of the satisfaction of doing the job itself - doesn't apply to you 2) Loss of the incom...
by Top99%
Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 3810

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

I think all but 3 and 4 make sense and the one you pick depends on your ability, need and willingness to take risk. We are doing a combination of 2 (being conservative with our SWR) and 6. If we were still accumulating we would definitely lean more towards saving more than increasing risk.
by Top99%
Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Milestone Reached - "Quarter Millionaire!"
Replies: 41
Views: 4592

Re: Milestone Reached - "Quarter Millionaire!"

Congratulations and I think $250K is actually a harder milestone to reach than $1m. Now that you have demonstrated good saving and investing habits $1m should arrive pretty quickly. :sharebeer
by Top99%
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocate for Early Retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 3516

Re: Relocate for Early Retirement?

Unless you plan on moving twice during retirement one big consideration is access to quality medical personnel and facilities. This can be a big problem in many LCOL. My wife and I were torn between Sedona AZ and Austin TX and chose the latter for that reason. We are 1 mile from a Costco :happy Aust...
by Top99%
Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flood Insurance when not in flood plain?
Replies: 39
Views: 3255

Re: Flood Insurance when not in flood plain?

We live on the side of a 200 foot hill but our house flooded due to a drainage issue in an interior courtyard. Standard homeowner's insurance definitely will not cover scenarios where water enters your home via the outside ground. So if your house sits on land with potential drainage issues you migh...
by Top99%
Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the main purpose of holding your current job?
Replies: 66
Views: 5416

Re: What is the main purpose of holding your current job?

Along the bell curve shaped continuum of 1-4 I am probably a 1.5 right now after ranging from 1.3 - 4 over my career but averaging in the high 1s. Going part time in February pulled me closer to 1 for sure.
by Top99%
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 52
Views: 5402

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

This thread means it is time for me to whip it out again: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_KeyInd_2017.pdf This is the single best piece of visual evidence I know of for the value diversification. As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the ma...
by Top99%
Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put These Charts On Your Wall
Replies: 11
Views: 3137

Re: Put These Charts On Your Wall

Thanks for posting and while I found the charts interesting I think the quote "The market doesn't have to do anything and certainly not what you think it should do" equally valuable. I was certainly guilty of thinking bond yields had to go up a couple of years ago but fortunately I didn't have enoug...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Things to buy/repair before (early) retirement
Replies: 32
Views: 3623

Re: Things to buy/repair before (early) retirement

I am of the same mind of a few other posters on this thread: buy/repair when needed or when opportunity presents itself. For example, Harvey destroyed lots of cars so demand for cars will probably spike for a while so delay getting a car until market conditions are more favorable. For major home ren...
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences
Replies: 74
Views: 9784

Re: Becoming a Landlord: My Experiences

denovo,

Great post and a great counter to the various "make money fast" articles and books on land lording. I will stick with passive investing.
by Top99%
Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3212

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

I guess it depends on how you define "predict" but I am banking about 35% of my future on predicting that over the next 40 years stocks will produce positive returns relative to inflation. So I can make a prediction and hopefully it will be correct.
by Top99%
Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Stock Market Is Always Risky
Replies: 42
Views: 3340

Re: The Stock Market Is Always Risky

There is no "risk free" place to invest money in my opinion. Bonds and CDs may have less volatility than stocks but they risk lagging inflation especially in periods of *unexpected* inflation. Alternatives come with alternative risks :oops: Let's face it: retirement is risky for us folks with a nest...
by Top99%
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High-Deductible Health Plan vs. Peace of Mind
Replies: 42
Views: 4068

Re: High-Deductible Health Plan vs. Peace of Mind

Add me to the list of people suggesting HDHP. In almost all cases when buying insurance, get the highest deductible you can afford to minimize your overall lifetime expenditures.
by Top99%
Fri Sep 01, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Christine Benz: "75 Must-Know Statistics About Long-Term Care"
Replies: 24
Views: 3679

Re: Christine Benz: "75 Must-Know Statistics About Long-Term Care"

Thanks for sharing a sobering set of statistics. Insurance generally works best for protecting one from low probability high impact scenarios like house fires, law suites etc. Long Term care is very unfortunately high probability *and* high impact which makes insurance very expensive and in some cas...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book
Replies: 160
Views: 6551

Re: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book

I started reading this book from the position of being convinced the small and value factors have logical explanations and reasons to persist so the book added to my confirmation bias. I was pretty skeptical about momentum (and factors with behavioral explanations) and this book did help convince me...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: white paper: Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment
Replies: 7
Views: 1883

Re: white paper: Asset Allocation in a Low Yield Environment

Thanks for sharing this and I found the explanation for why bond yields can go negative (holding paper money isn't really practical) pretty helpful in helping me make sense of something that was a complete mystery to me. I am also in the camp of expecting basically zero real returns out of my CDs/bo...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percent credit utilization is best?
Replies: 18
Views: 2039

Re: What percent credit utilization is best?

I don't want a range, what do you think is the exact best number? I've heard 4.5% is the sweet spot, but also 2.5%. What do you guys think? I put all my monthly bills and day-to-day expenses on a credit card and pay it off at the end of the month (if not more often). My credit utilization is whatev...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 28, 2017 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4896

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

The size of the workforce is not the only way to grow the pie. In terms of returns, I'm skeptical that negative demographic trends will outpace positive ones in productivity. Good point. Most stock and bond investors I’m sure hope you're right, that future global productivity growth will overcome t...
by Top99%
Sun Aug 27, 2017 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Expenses - what's "reasonable"?
Replies: 101
Views: 8815

Re: Living Expenses - what's "reasonable"?

It looks like many of the common fixed expenses have been covered but here are a few more for OP to consider: 1) replacing major appliances every 15 years or so 2) exterior painting of your home 3) roof replacement if you have a typical asphalt shingle roof. The number of years ranges from 15-30 dep...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 26, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel
Replies: 11
Views: 1855

Re: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel

Thanks for sharing and I certainly agree that much as I would prefer the laws of investing to be as immutable as the laws of physics it doesn't work that way. The point about being able to differentiate between a paradigm shift and a strategy falling temporarily out of favor is a very good one. Hope...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What to do when a parent's money runs out?
Replies: 218
Views: 31125

Re: What to do when a parent's money runs out?

We went through something similar with my MIL and FIL. Fortunately we were able to "rip the bandage off" so to speak and get them to sell the house and move to an apartment near us. The house sounds like an ever deepening money pit and potential safety issue so my advice to OP is to get her out of t...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"
Replies: 119
Views: 13753

Re: "I'm Bill Bengen, and I first proposed the 4% safe withdrawal rate in 1994. Ask me anything!"

We would all like more data, but sadly it just isn't always there. You can get large cap data for the U.S. going back for around 200 years, but if you start excluding rolling periods, then you still only have 6-7 periods to examine (although the returns for those periods are all remarkably similar)...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 26, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Major career decision.. offer on table. Huge relocation decision.
Replies: 29
Views: 3056

Re: Major career decision.. offer on table. Huge relocation decision.

I sounds like there might be a slight financial advantage to moving due to the pension and your wife is on board with the move. To me the zero commute would be worth a lot because time is pretty pricesless. That could be a lot of precious extra time with your wife and young children. If you would al...
by Top99%
Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 9949

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Thanks for linking another interesting article from Larry. While I partially buy some of the "this time *really* is different and that partially explains the increase in CAPE" arguments I must admit I am uneasy about US equity valuations. I still remember the "permanently high plateau" and "friction...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keep Home or Upgrade?
Replies: 11
Views: 980

Re: Keep Home or Upgrade?

It sounds like you have 3 reasons to move with one of them being "need more space". The 1st 2 reasons seem pretty reasonable but one option which may not be available is to move as planned but not get a bigger house which would keep the costs down. There are a lot of ways to keep space requirements ...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 21, 2017 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 39
Views: 5777

Re: Irrational Despair?

RudyS wrote:
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:12 pm
Major problem with selling, is knowing when to get back in. That cycle requires TWO correct decisions.
+1. I know some people who sold in 2008 when the big decline started, bragged about selling before "the bottom" was hit and have been waiting for the right time to get back in ever since.
by Top99%
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism
Replies: 44
Views: 4220

Re: Boston Globe: Smart Investors May be Killing Capitalism

Sometimes this forum is a bit hypersensitive about any criticism of indexing. The criticism here isn't that indexing is bad for investors and it's not about price discovery; the criticism is that shared ownership is bad for consumers. When the big mutual fund companies own such large stakes in, for...
by Top99%
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7209

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

What was actually happening in 1989 which made the world see Japan as such an amazing investment? I remember that time pretty well. At our company the Japanese "Continuous Improvement" model was something we were being trained to emulate. Michael Crichton's "The Rising Sun" echoed the widely viewed...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2740

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

Another reason that inflation has not picked up is that I think the real unemployment is much higher than reported. Many people have stopped looking for work. In addition there is tremendous pressure from low cost imports. The Internet and inexpensive telecommunications have opened up *far* more jo...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here is a criticisim of active management I don't get
Replies: 24
Views: 2392

Re: Here isa criticisim of active management I don't get

On the surface it often seems like it should be easy for an active investor to beat indices. Just start with an index allocation and remove the "bad stuff". The problem is the performance of the "bad stuff" isn't very predictable. https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Callan-PeriodicTbl_...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job, life changes
Replies: 26
Views: 2166

Re: New job, life changes

First of all congratulations and I am happy for both of you. I work in technology so I can appreciate landing a good gig. In addition to working hard which will pay dividends in the long run, I suggest making sure you always keep your skills marketable. I like to think of myself as a business that ...
by Top99%
Sat Aug 19, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Coming up with plan
Replies: 7
Views: 1011

Re: Coming up with plan

Is it too early to refi after only 1 year in the mortgage? The mortgage does not have PMI, but instead I settled for a higher rate. Never too early. One of the best financial decisions we made was to refinance to a 15 year from 30 year a little over a year after initial mortgage. If you don't have ...
by Top99%
Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New job, life changes
Replies: 26
Views: 2166

Re: New job, life changes

First of all congratulations and I am happy for both of you. I work in technology so I can appreciate landing a good gig. In addition to working hard which will pay dividends in the long run, I suggest making sure you always keep your skills marketable. I like to think of myself as a business that s...
by Top99%
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11347

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Thanks for posting another thought and discussion provoking set of charts Simplegift. I always learn something from the charts and the ensuing discussions. While I won't be buying a bunch of rental properties any time soon it does make me wonder if residential REITs (basically apartment REITs) might...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does personal wealth affect job hunting?
Replies: 57
Views: 6953

Re: How does personal wealth affect job hunting?

When I last changed jobs (2005) I certainly wasn't FI but I had enough of a nest egg that I knew I could be selective about where I worked. I think this instilled me with a lot more confidence when I interviewed. Recently when I became semi FI I went part time and my financial situation gave me the ...
by Top99%
Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face
Replies: 53
Views: 6826

Re: It's easy to have an investment plan until you get punched in the face

So basically, 95%+ of all investors have been surveyed and proclaim themselves buy and holders thru good times and bad? I don't think so. But it's an amusing premise to write an article about... I can totally buy that 95%+ of all investors *proclaim* themselves to be B&H through good and bad times....
by Top99%
Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One more year [to retire]
Replies: 23
Views: 2678

Re: One more year

I find that as I get older, the variety of things I can do other than work (mostly athletic) seems to be declining. I'm very curious what people intend to do in retirement. When I was 20 I thought retirement would be awesome. Now I'm wary of it. I'm pretty sure once I don't have to work, I'll be in...
by Top99%
Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: One more year [to retire]
Replies: 23
Views: 2678

Re: One more year

Since the fine folks on this board helped me find my way I will share our experience and some thoughts. After kicking the OMY can down the road for 5 years I finally went part time at age 55 (DW is a year younger and retired from paid work at 45). I generally like my job but just wanted more free ti...
by Top99%
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets
Replies: 13
Views: 1465

Re: Larry Swedroe: Beyond Efficient Markets

Thanks for sharing this article and I might need to buy the book. Certainly during the tech bubble "the wisdom of crowds is sometimes overwhelmed by the madness of mobs" applied. Maybe markets have absorbed that information, evolved and won't repeat that mistake. Maybe not. The fact that a housing b...
by Top99%
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?
Replies: 17
Views: 2070

Re: Does the trend toward index funds mute any bear market?

I guess I am not convinced people who hold index funds are any less likely to panic, sell and contribute to a positive feedback cycle putting more downward pressure on prices than people who hold active funds. Not all people who buy index funds have a Boglehead mindset. But, we won't really know unt...
by Top99%
Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Index Funds Evil?
Replies: 30
Views: 3784

Re: Are Index Funds Evil?

Of course this wouldn't apply solely to index funds. I'm a bit suspicious that the empirical evidence is based on the airline industry, which is a highly regulated industry with huge barriers to entry. To say that ticket prices are 12% higher than they should be and say you can narrow that down to ...
by Top99%
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?
Replies: 47
Views: 4302

Re: Deja Vu.. are there too many houses for sale?

I agree with others that this is generally a good sign. Now if HGTV starts airing "make money fast by flipping houses" shows left and right again *that* would be a concern.
by Top99%
Tue Aug 08, 2017 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 2056

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

Thanks for sharing some interesting data and here in Austin we have a pretty similar demographic to Silicon Valley along with restrictions on building so that seems to support the argument of wealthy buyers + tight supply = high price increases. All that being said what is more interesting to me is ...
by Top99%
Tue Aug 08, 2017 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness
Replies: 5
Views: 1481

Re: Another Great Post from AQR's Cliff Asness

This is a great snippet of wisdom from what I agree is a very good post: " Investing while in denial of real possibilities is never a good strategy.". Turning this into something to file away in my brain: All investments carry different risks ranging from shallow volatility type risk to deep underpe...