Search found 65 matches

by Top99%
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]
Replies: 54
Views: 148044

Re: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]

This is an excellent collection of articles, threads and pointers. They only thing you might consider adding in my opinion is a link to the Callan Periodic Table https://www.callan.com/formats/callan-periodic-table/ To me this is one of the most powerful pieces of visual evidence for the value of di...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 145
Views: 13511

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

To someone who started investing in 1982 -- me -- this is hardly an unprecedented rise. And, nothing to do with the moderate rise, but I'm reacting by being more conservative, more risk averse and less optimistic than I've been since 1982. And I'm someone who always bought on RBDs, even well into r...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fraud???
Replies: 15
Views: 2471

Re: Fraud???

Thank you to all who replied. I also think it's probably a glitch, but I strongly feel that Vanguard should have a fraud line available at all times, not just during "business hours." It's ludricous. Are they waiting to be hacked (like Target, for instance), before changing this policy? C...
by Top99%
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 95
Views: 6461

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

REITs may or may not be a separate asset class but their valuations certainly can move somewhat independently from TSM. In the late 1990s/early 2000s they were incredibly cheap (yields of 7-10% were common) and did most of the heavy lifting for my portfolio from the late 1990s to 2008 or so. They ar...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Reaches Top, But It's Hard to Stay There
Replies: 1
Views: 637

Re: Vanguard Reaches Top, But It's Hard to Stay There

Thanks for sharing an interesting article and it will be interesting to see what happens when the next US equity market crash occurs. Hopefully investors won't rush to the some of the active funds that (due mainly to luck in my opinion) somehow managed to time the crash and come out "looking go...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 18, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 145
Views: 13511

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

I am following my favorite piece of investment advice: Don't just do something, sit there!
Other than being a little more cautious about expected future returns and rebalancing if we hit the bands in our IPS we are sitting there.
by Top99%
Mon Jul 17, 2017 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 6630

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

If you can undersave, then you can oversave, though we'd all rather be in the latter category than the former. It might be hard to believe, but there are many people on this forum who have saved enough that even with spending money on everything they want to, their WR is still 2% (or even lower). T...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: This Metric In Dire Need Of Context
Replies: 13
Views: 2866

Re: Larry Swedroe: This Metric In Dire Need Of Context

Thanks for sharing another interesting article from Larry. To me this one carried at least a faint whiff of "this time is different". Maybe this time really is different but I wouldn't bet my financial future on it. I guess I hedge my bets between the future resembling the past and being d...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 17, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is that one of the longest bull market?
Replies: 10
Views: 1207

Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

What would be really interesting would be inflation adjusted total return for the S&P including dividends. This is an inflation-adjusted, total return (dividends reinvested) chart from the same researcher. Note that it’s set up a little differently than the first chart, with a log scale on the ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 17, 2017 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is that one of the longest bull market?
Replies: 10
Views: 1207

Re: Is that one of the longest bull market?

There’s different ways to define bull and bear markets — here’s one that’s inflation-adjusted: https://s21.postimg.org/7yncyub13/12615304a31e0b98ee53d26635d74559.png Advisor Perspectives Thanks for finding and sharing this chart. Inflation adjusted charts aren't all that common and this one is eye ...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 6630

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

Sadly, a recent study found that over 60% of Millennials preferred a 1% guaranteed annuity to the S&P 500 as their primary investment vehicle in their 401k. :( Can we (partially) blame the parents? I think maybe we can. To some extent, risk tolerance is a learned behavior. Let's say that a pers...
by Top99%
Sat Jul 15, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: depleting accounts in retirement
Replies: 27
Views: 4798

Re: depleting accounts in retirement

There are lots of good suggestions in this thread. The only thing I can suggest is to play around in TurboTax and see how turning the various withdrawal knobs affects how much tax you owe. When I played around it seemed to make sense to pull a mix of taxable, IRA and Roth so that we can cover our de...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?
Replies: 101
Views: 6630

Re: 90:10 AA - what don't you believe about it?

I think 90/10 might be too risky even for people in the early accumulation phase if that 10% includes the assets they might need to live on for a while if stocks crash and they lose their job (two events that are often correlated). If the 90/10 excludes an emergency fund the person is comfortable wi...
by Top99%
Thu Jul 13, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement is Risky Business
Replies: 41
Views: 6777

Re: Retirement is Risky Business

So we've been told all the reasons why we won't make it, now how about all the reasons why we WILL make it! A very good idea so I will start with a few I believe in: 1) Just as has been the case for the last couple of centuries, owning stocks, bonds and other income producing assets will be profita...
by Top99%
Thu Jul 13, 2017 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6597

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

The fact that the current bull market in US equities is closing in on the record for the longest does make me wonder... If something can't go on forever it will stop. I just hope we don't go through 1970s style stagflation because my portfolio isn't really setup to deal with that too well and I am ...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To LMP or Not to LMP? [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 15
Views: 3083

Re: To LMP or Not to LMP? [Liability Matching Portfolio]

1) converting now to an LMP is the only 100% safe method of maintaining our spending power for the next 30 years Richard I guess I would question an LMP comprised of TIPS of any other form of fixed income being a "100% safe method of maintaining our spending power for the next 30 years". ...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Top 5 posts of all times"
Replies: 17
Views: 4174

Re: "Top 5 posts of all times"

Congratulations and well deserved Taylor. I steer any of my young co-workers who are starting out in investing and willing to listen to me for advice straight to the Three Fund.
by Top99%
Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?
Replies: 24
Views: 3276

Re: At what point does passive investing become dangerous?

Clearly there are some low cost actively managed funds that do well in spite of indexing becoming prevalent. For example, Wesley and Wellington. Anyone heard of them? I think the future is a combination of indexing and low cost actively managed funds and I for one look forward to that. If one isn't ...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The cost of car ownership
Replies: 51
Views: 3251

Re: The cost of car ownership

I love the notion that a Boglehead must buy a cheap, practical car. I have seen some incredible vitriol here displayed because some people have the audacity to buy a car they actually enjoy. ... It is important to keep cost in mind when buying a car. It's also important to keep in mind that some pe...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 10, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions
Replies: 21
Views: 2437

Re: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions

Nedsaid & Top99%, Yep! Nortel $88.00+ >>>>>> $0.43 in not too long a time. Knew some co-workers who had everything invested in Nortel. :( This is why you widely diversify. It is a painful lesson to learn, it still smarts after all this time. Fortunately, even in my individual stocks, I had my w...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 09, 2017 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement is Risky Business
Replies: 41
Views: 6777

Re: Retirement is Risky Business

After 29 years of retirement (early and on a shoestring and with a considerably older spouse), I've faced (knowingly or not) many of these risks, and am still on a placid course towards the ultimate one. :happy Posts like yours have really helped convince me to dip one toe into the water. So far no...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions
Replies: 21
Views: 2437

Re: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions

There are a couple of related problems with buying cheaper assets. That is being right too early and negative momentum that is associated with Value. Investor enthusiasm can last longer than what we want to believe, market rallies can take on a life of their own, and in a mania, only end when the m...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to compromise on moving
Replies: 10
Views: 1011

Re: How to compromise on moving

Now that your house is paid off can you rent a place somewhere your wife may like for 3-4 winter months where she gets what she wants and you can jointly decide after 2 or 3 years of that, whats the move going forward. May be the grass is greener and you may like laid back style or she might feel s...
by Top99%
Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions
Replies: 21
Views: 2437

Re: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions

I know that I have certain convictions about the markets and I might tilt my portfolio to reflect that conviction but I don't go beyond that. I have a small/value tilted portfolio but I still own Large Growth in my portfolio. Why? Because in the shorter run, I might be wrong. I have to be patient e...
by Top99%
Sat Jul 08, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reuters Story on Used Car Market
Replies: 19
Views: 2339

Re: Reuters Story on Used Car Market

Cars are indeed much more durable and in my opinion the easiest area to save money on either by keeping them 10+ years (if you buy new) or by buying used and keeping them 5+ years. When the next crash comes delaying car replacements is one easy area my wife and I can use to squeeze our spending down...
by Top99%
Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions
Replies: 21
Views: 2437

Re: Larry Swedroe's Update on Guru's Predictions

Thanks for sharing one of my favorite series of Larry articles. The predictions about the effect of rising Us interest rates on US bond and US equity returns were especially entertaining. This year's Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns ought to be interesting.
by Top99%
Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 119
Views: 8821

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Thanks for laying these out in such a convenient table. We use QSPIX, LENDX and SRRIX for ~20 percent of our portfolio. The fees are very hard to swallow and something that I hope will come down with time but the diversification benefit suits us.
by Top99%
Thu Jul 06, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 6597

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

OTOH, the "U.S. Market in Freefall" thread now seems to be pretty close to the longest on the site. I think real estate in my neck of the woods is much more likely to be in a bubble than the stock market (unless you believe there can't be a real estate bubble in Seattle because it's still...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 218
Views: 29187

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

I think once you get beyond enough to cover your fixed minimum expenses comfortably, the incremental amount you need comes down to how much longer you are willing to work to pay for non-essential items like good food, expensive toys, travel etc. That will be different for everyone. In my case I woul...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?
Replies: 60
Views: 7323

Re: Time in the market is more important, But seriously ?

What would be your suggestion? Read What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks? +1 In addition, read the following to get an answer to your question, "Is There Ever A "Bad" Time To Invest?": http://www.schwab.com/insights/stocks/is-there-ever-bad-time-to-invest +2 The "What ...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 05, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics
Replies: 25
Views: 1703

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics

After living through the "trees really will grow to the sun this time" tech bubble I am definitely a value oriented investor now. Intuitively value invest just makes sense to me and I find the data very convincing.
by Top99%
Wed Jul 05, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans
Replies: 36
Views: 2218

Re: Considering a TSP loan to pay off student loans

teddykgb55, The only thing I can think of is to check what happens if you leave your employer before paying off the loan. IIRC in some cases the full loan becomes due immediately which is an issue if your TSP is tax deferred. In that case if you need to pull from the TSP to pay the loan off you woul...
by Top99%
Wed Jul 05, 2017 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?
Replies: 47
Views: 3051

Re: When Did You Start Investing Your Own Money?

I was definitely not as financially savvy in my younger years as many in this thread. :wink: We started investing in our 401Ks in our late 20s but our net worth was negative until we turned 30 and I don't think I knew the difference between a stock and a bond before then. When the tech bubble popped...
by Top99%
Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?
Replies: 21
Views: 1561

Re: Using a 5y moving average to smooth withdrawals in VPW?

The simplicity of VPW is very important. I cannot imagine explaining to my wife how to go and lookup CPI numbers and calculate complex ratios (or use a spreadsheet) after my death . Great post as always Longinvest. And a huge thank you for your efforts in creating VPW. VPW along with the approach d...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 03, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 3938

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

There is overlap between Large Value, High Dividend, and Low Volatility. What I did was look at Vanguard Value Index, Vanguard High Dividend, Vanguard Consumer Staples, and at Low Volatility. Growth of $10,000 for 10 years shows $17,419 for Vanguard Value Index, $19,394 for Vanguard High Dividend I...
by Top99%
Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 3938

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

I have been pounding the table for maybe three to four years that Large Value will be the place to be in the future. High Dividend, Low-Volatility, Large Growth, and Small Value have all been chased pretty hard since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. About all there is left to exploit...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Filling Your 401k with Company Stock"
Replies: 39
Views: 3913

Re: "Filling Your 401k with Company Stock"

I left my former employer (Nortel) back in '99... at that time, a Fortune 100 company that was riding the internet wave/boom... Fast forward a few years, the wheels were coming off the bus... at one point, I know of several friends that shifted large portions of their 401K into Nortel stock after i...
by Top99%
Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1797

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

Todd, Thanks for sharing this and I learned a lot from the OP and follow ups from the brain trust in this forum. To me this reinforces the idea that valuations matter a great deal. Regarding the trend of world wide GDP growth slowing down, if one buys that the Gordon Equation is at least somewhat us...
by Top99%
Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2949

Re: Why Diversify? Why Not 100% Global Stocks

---Stuff happens, like job losses, disability, financial panics, wars, climate disasters, car wrecks, home fires, family illness etc. where cash or bonds are needed for emergency funds. Selling stocks at a bottom is neither fun or smart. jbranx This. Depending on what you do for a living and how se...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 3938

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

Thanks for sharing another interesting article from Larry. I am firmly in the "diversify across asset classes and factors because they all have different types and timing of risks" camp. While I certainly do put some faith in back testing I see too many variables to completely bet the farm...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?
Replies: 32
Views: 2372

Re: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?

I also work in tech. I don't purposefully tilt away from tech, however I do have a pretty strong value tilt to my equity allocation. Since tech has more growth companies and less value companies, I've ended up with a slight de facto tilt away from the tech sector. This is my situation as well. We h...
by Top99%
Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment
Replies: 59
Views: 4352

Re: Total Bond Fund in a rising rate environment

As others have noted I think total Bond has done fine in recent (post 1970s) time periods with rising rates. One option to consider is you could mix in some 2-5 year CDs to reduce term risk a little without reducing your return much. There are numerous threads on CDs on this board that provide helpf...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 29, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements
Replies: 19
Views: 4414

Re: Eight Signs You are a Seasoned Investor by Johnathan Clements

I love this one in "11 signs" : 8. Jim Cramer? Who’s that?
During the tech bubble I don't know if I lost more chasing Jim's picks or Fortune Magazine's picks. I have been passive ever since.
by Top99%
Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9866

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Top99% and Siamond, You both said you're not willing to bet on the Larry Portfolio extreme SV tilt. I bet you know how he responds to that issue. He would say that you are making a big concentrated bet on a single factor, market beta. SV is diversifying across factors that have low correlations to ...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 5 Pitfalls of Mutual Funds by,....
Replies: 22
Views: 1976

Re: There are almost always better options than mutual funds.

I didn't click the link to "learn more" because I am pretty sure an email would be required and I would get endless spam as a result. I am sure there are better options than mutual funds for people in the financial services industry to sell us "customers". :mrgreen:
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9866

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

The second issue is that even though CAPE has been the best statistical predictor of market returns, that does not necessarily mean that it is good enough predictor to use for any practical reason. At its historic peak predictive power, which is roughly nine years into the future, CAPE has explaine...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9866

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

[It has been demonstrated on a large enough sample of US equities that it's statistically very unlikely to be "chance". The value premium also has been found to exist on every country's stock market that we have data on.. I am definitely convinced there has been a value premium and I *thi...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch
Replies: 23
Views: 3655

Re: Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch

There are also script-generated investing "newsletters" all over the internet now. They're terrible. Or at least this sounds terrible enough to be machine written: https://evergreencaller.com/greenbrier-companies-inc-gbx-shares-hold-above-the-rising-trendline/ There are also script-genera...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9866

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I just want to say how much I love you guys. Seriously. The conversation here has been so insightful. Sometimes I think it helps just to talk about what I might want to do -- akin to shooting blanks out of a gun. Sometimes I feel like I need to pull the trigger, and chatting about it with you folks...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 9866

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Now tell me, if we accept your premise of changing your portfolio based on the current situation (and we really should NOT), do you REALLY want to go with a portfolio using 70% bonds? Meaning to make a bet that the notoriously capricious Small-Cap-Value and Emerging Markets (30% of your portfolio) ...

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