Search found 464 matches

by Top99%
Thu Jun 02, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137392

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

I am late to this thread but as a 2018 Tesla model 3 owner with TSLA ownership limited to index funds and follower of the BEV industry, I think the risk to Tesla right now is perhaps the highest since the model 3 ramp in 2017/2018. While I think Tesla will definitely survive long term I see some dark clouds on their horizon: 1) The return to the office mandate combined with the drop in TSLA price negatively impacting the compensation of workers could result in a brain drain. 2) Many long-term Tesla fans and believers are really growing weary of Elon Musk's broken FSD promises. You can really feel this change of attitude in the various forums. I don't know how much of TLSA valuation is based on the FSD reaching level 4 or level 5 on or near ...
by Top99%
Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What convinced you that you can't outperform the market?
Replies: 179
Views: 15687

Re: What convinced you that you can't outperform the market?

lostdog wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:15 am I lost $600 in a single stock just starting out. I then found bogleheads.
Wow. This must be near a record for "least expensive lessons" for Bogleheads. :sharebeer
The same lesson cost me 7 figures. :oops:
by Top99%
Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What convinced you that you can't outperform the market?
Replies: 179
Views: 15687

Re: What convinced you that you can't outperform the market?

For me it was a few events that occurred around the time when the Tech Bubble popped in 2000: 1) Experiencing the 90% of my net worth tied up in Nortel stock options vaporize in about 15 minutes when Nortel announced an earnings miss and started their long slide into oblivion. This got me interested in learning about investing which lead me to: 2) Purchasing stocks recommended by "experts" writing for Fortune magazine. Surely these "professionals" had the expertise to identify promising stocks. After all, Legg Mason Value trust, held in my 401K, was doing well so clearly the "experts" could beat a lowly index fund. Thankfully, due to dumb luck, when I left Nortel in 2005 I sold my Legg Mason Value Trust. As for...
by Top99%
Wed May 11, 2022 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210403

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

If you are actually ahead on your ARKK investment, you should pat yourself on the back for making money, buying low and selling high, and quitting while you were ahead. You learned a lesson without losing money, that's a great outcome. Pure sheer luck, nothing more but I am very grateful .. My friend on the other hand doubled down on Ms Wood and said she knows her stuff and we all know where it is. Now he keeps saying he should have followed me. I need to check in with my family friend/wealth advisor and see where he stands on his ARKK investment now. He was doubling down last summer when it was dropping. I recall on a recent episode of "The Compound", they said ARK was still getting big inflows despite the fund being in a state ...
by Top99%
Thu Feb 24, 2022 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137392

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Is there a reason why electric vehicles and self-driving vehicles are lumped together? To me it looks like two unrelated problems. Most people drive automatic transmissions anyway, and hybrids already start and stop their engines automatically. Why must self-driving cars be all electric? And while I'm asking questions, do any automatic systems watch, not just the vehicle directly in front, but also the vehicle in front of that one? I do that when I can, either by looking through the back and front windshields of the preceding vehicle, or by looking for a shadow when one is visible. Gives me a much better sense of what is going to happen next, and frees me from depending on the reaction time of the driver in front of me. My onscreen visuali...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I do not understand the panic, care to educate me?
Replies: 130
Views: 19522

Re: I do not understand the panic, care to educate me?

I think part of the "panic noise" is coming from investors who haven't been through a big correction like the US dotcom crash of 2001 or the GFC crash of 2008 - 2009. There was a correction in 2020 but it came and went so quickly I think many people didn't really have time to panic. The fact that they may have been more worried about their personal health or ability to acquire toilet paper :mrgreen: than their finances at that point of time may have also contributed to the 2020 correction not triggering widespread panic. As others have mentioned, recency bias is also a thing and many who did live through the GFC may have forgotten just how painful and scary that was. Every now and then I will dig up some of the threads on Boglehea...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it foolish to go all in Small Cap Value?
Replies: 405
Views: 25157

Re: Is it foolish to go all in Small Cap Value?

What could go wrong going all in Small Cap Value? By investing in Small Cap Value one is fully exposed to market beta anyways (actually slightly more market beta than the total stock market) plus the potential to harvest the additional small and value (and profitability) premiums. Even if those premiums fail to realize in the future, it is hard to imagine that they should consistently produce a negative premium forever. If one is able to take on the higher volatility of Small Cap Value, I think it is a pretty sensible decision that is likely to pay off. Therefore, my portfolio would look something like this: > 60-70% SPDR MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted > 30-40% SPDR MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted This should be close to regional m...
by Top99%
Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137392

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

The biggest problem with FSD is that unless it's actually perfect, it's more stressful than driving on your own. When you're driving, you're 100% in control. You're planning your next 2 or 3 moves. You're paying attention to traffic down way down the road. You're aware of who is driving like a jerk around you and can actively avoid. On FSD, you have to guess what the machine is seeing. It doesn't have the same reaction time as you do. It is either more aggressive or more conservative than you are. You have to always be ready for it to make a mistake and to correct it, but you have no clue when it is making a mistake vs. when it is driving differently than you would. Until you can lay back and take a nap while FSD is doing its thing, it rem...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210403

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

Many of us have learned from our own history but each generation, just like we did, has to learn it for themselves. +1 In the pre-dot.com bust era, I thought technology was making investments forever different. Well, I got humbled but not skinned. As Mike Tyson stated, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth". During the pre-dot.com period I thought I had a brilliant plan picking hot individual stocks or funds. When the actual punch in the mouth (rapid loss of capital) came it hurt a lot more than I envisioned. I did get really lucky with Legg Mason Value Trust, holding it from 1999 - 2005 but I don't confuse my lucky outcome with brilliant strategy on my part. Many of the ARKK and Tesla bulls are going to need t...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137392

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Only one problem. We don't have the generating capacity to produce electricity for all of those cars. I get the mental image of someone firing up a diesel generator to produce electricity for his electric car. I actually believe that the Hybrid technology is better as the car can produce its own electricity. We need better storage capacity, batteries, to store the intermittently produced electricity from solar and wind. The problem is that the sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Battery technology is advancing, one reason behind investor interest in Tesla, which might really be a battery company. Hopefully, we will get cheap fusion energy in the future. Or perhaps we could build nuclear plants. Green energy has been ...
by Top99%
Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market success
Replies: 141
Views: 21553

Re: Stock Market success

The problem is the stock market is a 2nd order chaotic system. By that I mean if I could build some magic program which would accurately predict the price of TSLA on December 1st 2021 and that program predicted it would be $1000 unless I kept that all to myself the next day TSLA would rise to $1000 as traders rushed in to cash in on the rise to $1000. Then what would happen on December 1st 2021 would now become unknown. By comparison the weather is a 1st order chaotic system so improvements in prediction models don't influence the weather.
So, with all that in mind the few individual stocks I owned produced a random outcome and an overall net loss. My only "stock market success" has come from buying index funds.
by Top99%
Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lucid electric cars & stock
Replies: 60
Views: 8677

Re: Lucid electric cars & stock

Lucid seems to have a really excellent product and I wish them well. But, after reading a couple of books on Tesla's story and learning a) how hard the automobile business is and b) how close Tesla came, multiple times, to bankruptcy I wouldn't buy Lucid stock. Tesla beat incredible odds helped by some luck combined with of course a good product and people who bought the stock 3+ years ago reaped the rewards (I wasn't one of them) but it very easily could have gone the other way. In addition to good fortune (acquiring the NUMI factory for a song for example, stable economy), Tesla really had no competition.
by Top99%
Sun Jul 04, 2021 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest regrets and advice for newbies.
Replies: 62
Views: 10548

Re: Biggest regrets and advice for newbies.

The list is long and overlaps with a few others: Regrets: 1) Spending too much on stuff (cars, houses) and not enough on vacations when we were younger. We took our first vacation (other than visiting out of town parents) in our late 30s. So, we pretty much just worked and spent money on stuff our first 15 years of marriage. Once we learned how great vacations could be and had plenty of money to spend on them we became tied down with elderly and ailing parents. 2) Working too many hours in our 20s and 30s in a quest for more money to buy more stuff and pay for a bigger house than we needed. 3) Getting caught up in the irrational exuberance of the Tech Bubble in the late 1990s. We thought we had won the stock option lottery and didn't need t...
by Top99%
Mon Jun 28, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You ever have an investment actually go to zero?
Replies: 126
Views: 12612

Re: You ever have an investment actually go to zero?

I had 90% of my net worth go to zero when my Nortel stock options went permanently underwater in 2000. I (foolishly of course) also owned Nortel in my 401K but actually due to sheer dumb luck with buy and sell market timing made about $100K and got out before Nortel went bankrupt. That cured my desire to ever own individual stocks again. Several of my coworkers had _all_ of their 401K money in Nortel stock (because the company allowed it and NT stock could only go up) and lost all of it along with their jobs.
by Top99%
Sat Jun 26, 2021 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 262
Views: 55199

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

In fairness, historically the S&P 500 has quite often been pretty top heavy. I also am concerned about the valuation gap between Growth and Value, it was looking pretty similar to 1999. Now that Value has been doing relatively well over the last year or so, the gap has probably shrank a little bit but it is still very wide. As far as Tesla, my feeling is that a lot of people will ride Tesla all the way up and all the way back down again. I am reminded of Peter Lynch's comment that people should marry their spouse and trade their stocks, some folks regretfully do the opposite. I had this unhappy experience with Lucent Technologies in the early 2000's. I own and love a Tesla model 3 and visit the Tesla forums frequently. I completely agr...
by Top99%
Fri May 14, 2021 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto mania !
Replies: 750
Views: 53176

Re: Crypto mania !

But what about using Aave for dollar deposits, earning significantly higher rates on short term cash than banks can offer? Only a matter of time before companies get on board in a big way. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag My regular reminder that Aave is 1/30 the market cap of Wells Fargo, but tick tock... Doesn't it concern you at all that what you are describing makes no economic sense? Forget about the technical details for the moment. You have cash you want to lend, but you want the principal to be fully guaranteed, and you want it to be fully callable on demand. Banks have such products available, but they pay such low rates! It is almost like they don't view those borrowing terms as very attractive! But aha, someone comes along and offe...
by Top99%
Thu May 13, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto mania !
Replies: 750
Views: 53176

Re: Crypto mania !

Those of us who were of investing age during the 1999-2000 Tech Bubble have seen this movie before. In the early days of the bubble investors with an appreciation for technology understood companies like Cisco and Amazon would be big winners and bid up the prices accordingly. Later investors noticed the performance, started chasing it and drove up shares of these companies and anything else remotely connected to the Internet to silly levels. The positive feed back cycle continued until something abruptly stopped it. I think the Wile E Coyote looking down after running off the cliff ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8ROhH3_vs ) moment will come soon enough. Speaking of the Tech Bubble Cisco was indeed a big winner but there market CAP is ...
by Top99%
Thu May 13, 2021 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto mania !
Replies: 750
Views: 53176

Re: Crypto mania !

It just seems strange to me people would purchase ETH and yet not really be interested in experiencing first hand - the good, the bad, the ugly - what is happening on the Ethereum network! It's this experience that convinced me to purchase Uniswap, Synthetix, and Aave, for example. And to understand how hard it will be for other chains (so called "Eth killers") to displace Ethereum. Because, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has tremendous utility, which I have seen and experienced myself , first hand. There is nothing strange about pump and dump scams. People see the hustle and want quick profit like you. Those of us who were of investing age during the 1999-2000 Tech Bubble have seen this movie before. In the early days of the bubble in...
by Top99%
Tue May 11, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto mania !
Replies: 750
Views: 53176

Re: Crypto mania !

Toons wrote: Tue May 11, 2021 5:23 pm Easy Come
Easy Go :wink:
Easy Go and _FAST_ Go is what I learned the hard way when the Tech Bubble popped and ~$2.5m disappeared before my eyes in less than 15 minutes. Greed can turn into fear with startling quickness. I suspect a new generation will be learning about this fairly soon but I won't try and predict when soon will be.
by Top99%
Sun May 09, 2021 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto mania !
Replies: 750
Views: 53176

Re: Crypto mania !

Astones wrote: Sun May 09, 2021 10:45 am
Green Street wrote: Sat May 08, 2021 9:39 pm and I still firmly believe in the technology.
I am fascinated by the technology as well, yet I don't consider crypto a wise investment. The relevance of the technology behind crypto does not imply that crypto itself is a good investment. In fact, the two things are completely uncorrelated.
I am in exactly the same camp. I can see Blockchain being used for a lot of very useful things but don't have the interest or need in trying to pick winners and losers. I will let the market sort that out along with what Tesla is eventually worth.
by Top99%
Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla exceeds expectations for Q1
Replies: 110
Views: 10773

Re: Tesla exceeds expectations for Q1

I love my Tesla model 3 and Tesla's overall mission but I would not own the stock outside of CAP weighted in an index fund. The valuation just makes no sense to me. I got "cured" of FOMO on "to the moon" stocks during the 2000 tech bubble crash.
by Top99%
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% Rule - Simplified?
Replies: 19
Views: 2078

Re: The 4% Rule - Simplified?

While as others have noted, the 4% "rule of thumb" provides no guarantee one won't run out of money after 30 years, I find the real life results for several common portfolios with the 4% "rule" applied here https://retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife21.html somewhat reassuring. Some observations:
1) The data for the 20 year periods 1994-2014 Vs 2000 - 2020 (towards bottom of the page) really highlight how bad sequence of returns can impact things.
2) Year 2000 retirees with the 75% S&P 500 / 25% fixed income portfolio no doubt had some sleepless nights in 2001 and 2009 but it looks like they will pull though.
3) Bonds has a pretty good tail wind throughout the period studied.
by Top99%
Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Announcing the FOMO fund...
Replies: 34
Views: 4456

Re: Announcing the FOMO fund...

FIREyourself wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:58 am Finally a fund that allows me to buy high and sell low everytime!
Indeed. It is time to take out a HELOC and lever up on this fund 3x.
by Top99%
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210403

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

queso wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:12 am Finally! A sale on ARK and crypto. Time to double down.
Indeed. The fear of catching falling knives is irrational.
by Top99%
Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?
Replies: 167
Views: 14998

Re: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?

leftcoaster wrote: Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:28 pm I remember seeing an ad for a brokerage on the side of a bus in San Francisco. A young woman was depicted with the caption “23 year old retiree”

That was a pretty clear sign.
In retrospect, the E*Trade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oftjwYmlfoA "Money out the wazoo" Superbowl ad in 2000 _should_ have been a pretty clear sign, one of many that I missed.
by Top99%
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?
Replies: 167
Views: 14998

Re: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?

I worked at Nortel Networks on voice over IP (VoIP) during the Tech Bubble. Along with dot com mania VoIP was viewed as the next huge thing and as a result Nortel was desperate to hang onto those of us working on it. So, they showered us with 4 salary increases per year and stock options which for me at one point were worth $2.5m. We were also instructed to hire anyone we could whether we needed them or not just so Cisco and other competitors couldn't hire them. It was an epic time to be an engineer working on anything from Java to VoIP to web sites. The money was flowing like water. I remember the euphoria of watching my stock options increase in value $100K plus some days. Savings? I didn't need no stinking savings because I had won the ...
by Top99%
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?
Replies: 167
Views: 14998

Re: What was the Dot-Com bubble like?

I worked at Nortel Networks on voice over IP (VoIP) during the Tech Bubble. Along with dot com mania VoIP was viewed as the next huge thing and as a result Nortel was desperate to hang onto those of us working on it. So, they showered us with 4 salary increases per year and stock options which for me at one point were worth $2.5m. We were also instructed to hire anyone we could whether we needed them or not just so Cisco and other competitors couldn't hire them. It was an epic time to be an engineer working on anything from Java to VoIP to web sites. The money was flowing like water. I remember the euphoria of watching my stock options increase in value $100K plus some days. Savings? I didn't need no stinking savings because I had won the s...
by Top99%
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week
Replies: 118
Views: 12811

Re: What happens if you retire using the 4% rule and the market crashes 40%+ the next week

The closest example of that I could find for US investors is shown https://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife20.html here for some common portfolios. Scroll down to "What if you retired in January 2000?". Folks holding 75/25 US stocks/fixed income no doubt had some sleepless nights but in the end it looks like they will make it through. Of course nobody knows what will happen in the future.
by Top99%
Sun Feb 07, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual stock regret
Replies: 57
Views: 6646

Re: Individual stock regret

After losing about 80% of my net worth in about 15 minutes on Nortel stock during the Tech Bubble, I have no desire to stick my thumb back into the single stock lamp socket.
by Top99%
Fri Feb 05, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: riskiness of high-PE tech stocks
Replies: 9
Views: 884

Re: riskiness of high-PE tech stocks

I see two main risks: 1) The company associated with the stock goes out of business making their shares worthless. 2) The company associated with the stock prospers but doesn't meet the expectations baked into the lofty share price. The stock price then takes a haircut until the earnings eventually line up with the stock price. And "eventually" can be a really long time, requiring more patience than most investors have. There were numerous examples of 1) during the Tech Bubble. Homegrocer.com and pets.com are a couple that come to mind. For 2), Cisco is a text book example. It turned out to be fabulously profitable but still hasn't "grown into" its 1999 share price/market cap. The problem is valuing growth companies requ...
by Top99%
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSLA: What Changed?
Replies: 1158
Views: 137392

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

I own and love a Tesla model 3 but only own TSLA shares in my index funds. I am very optimistic about the future of Tesla as a company and believe it will be very profitable in the long term. But, having lived through the Tech Bubble I see a lot of parallels between the long term trajectory of TSLA and Cisco Systems (CSCO). During the Tech Bubble Cisco quickly rose to nose bleed prices due to the hype about how the Internet would change the world and Cisco would be a main beneficiary. Both of those turned out to be true and Cisco is very profitable with over 4x the revenue and profits they made in the late 1990s. But, the market cap and share price if CSCO are still at least 40% below their peak over 20 years ago. So, when I see TSLA valued...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”
Replies: 91
Views: 11267

Re: I still believe in “getting rich slowly”

During the Tech Bubble I did *temporarily* get rich pretty quickly. Some stock options went from worthless to ~$2.5m in about a year and then from $2.5m to $600 in about 15 minutes. So, I learned to just grind it out and become financially secure over time. When I see all these folks crowing about their big swinging gains in TSLA and BTC I remind myself that until they sell all those paper gains could disappear in a very short period of time.
Of course many of these investors claim they will hold on regardless and wait for the recovery they view as inevitable. But, as Mike Tyson says, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
by Top99%
Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 5086
Views: 396775

Re: Is Game Stop, AMC etc affecting Bogleheads?

So far I am just watching it with amusement. If it becomes a widespread activity affecting a significant (say 10%) of stocks I will become alarmed.
by Top99%
Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to profit from irrational behavior?
Replies: 63
Views: 6367

Re: How to profit from irrational behavior?

Fallible wrote: Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:49 pm
embwbam wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:15 pm ... Maybe it's too late now for BTC and TSLA, but I could act on the next insane trend I notice. ...
Here's what it boils down to, where the rational gives way to the irrational: predicting what the market will do, which no one can do, based on the assumed ability to accurately "notice" a trend.
I have toyed with the idea of buying some out of the money put options on TSLA but if I do it will only be with "entertainment" money. Just reading some of the posts on cleantechnica.com and in the Tesla forums makes be believe the this stock is ripe for a rapid transition from greed to fear. But, I sure wouldn't bet more than entertainment money on it.
by Top99%
Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Replies: 118
Views: 8354

Re: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

Living through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s / early 2000s formed my believe in markets _eventually_ becoming efficient. At some point I think the market will sort out what TLSA and some other high flying stocks are actually worth.
by Top99%
Sat Jan 16, 2021 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 290
Views: 28005

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Increasingly inexpensive energy storage. The enabler of BEVs and very inexpensive electricity. The "plastics" of the 2020s.
by Top99%
Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real estate vs stocks (sp500) , this convinced me to just buy and hold
Replies: 49
Views: 7276

Re: Real estate vs stocks (sp500) , this convinced me to just buy and hold

I think the idea of residential housing being a good investment was largely born during the period of high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s. Housing did provide a very good hedge against inflation in those years. Now and then I look up the Zillow prices of the houses my family and I have lived in since the 1970s in FL, NC and TX. _None_ of them have significantly out-paced inflation let alone the stock market. Several of them have lagged inflation. The house I am currently living in here in Austin TX still hasn't reached its inflation adjusted sales price in 1985 although it is finally getting close. So, I just view a house as a place to live in where I can modify it to my taste.
by Top99%
Mon Jan 11, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 396
Views: 44096

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

The following two positions are not consistent with each other: 1) Tesla, the 5th largest company in the S&P 500 is an obvious bubble and will crash. 2) "Nobody knows nothin'" and everyone should buy VTI. I mean, everyone realizes this right? You can't simultaneously believe markets are mostly efficient/impossible to beat and also believe that a massive ponzi scheme is being actively traded in high volume on one of the most liquid markets in the world. I can only assume that those who believe the first statement (seems to be the majority of this thread) do not believe the second. Market efficiency doesn’t mean prices are rational. Individual stocks can be in a bubble. Doesn’t mean the whole market is. One take-away I have fro...
by Top99%
Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 396
Views: 44096

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

You know what's worse than NOT investing a hot stock? Investing in a hot stock, being right/lucky, making 10x your money, and then riding it most (or all) of the way back down again. Well said HomerJ. I have personal experience with this. Prior to working at Cisco I worked at Nortel Networks, a hot company during the Tech Bubble and had on paper stock options worth about $2.5m. In about 15 minutes beginning on at 5 PM October 17th 2000, Nortel announced an earnings miss, greed turned to fear and that $2.5m turned into about $700. It is astonishing how fast fear can set in. I don't think Tesla will go out of business like Nortel did but a lot of things could trigger that fear including something happening to Elon Musk, Apple buying Lucid et...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla [car] purchase any significant downside?
Replies: 150
Views: 12326

Re: Tesla purchase any significant downside?

I have had a Tesla model 3 LR since August of 2018 and the only problem I have had with it was a cosmetic trim piece that was fixed under warranty. I love the car and have taken it on 2 1500+ mile trips and numerous 300 - 800 mile trips without incident. Given the model S has been out since 2012, the batteries are holding up very well, and the model 3 has improved battery technology I have zero concerns about the long term durability of the battery. I plan on keeping the car at least 8 more years and don't worry about the battery or powertrain going the distance. The model S/X do have a couple of expensive and somewhat failure prone items the model 3 lacks: Air suspension and motorized door handles. Other than depreciation which applies to ...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How did you choose a location to retire?
Replies: 113
Views: 12256

Re: How did you chose a location to retire?

This is obviously very much a personal thing but my wife and I chose Austin Texas. She hates the cold (<40 F) and humidity so that ruled out pretty much everywhere except central/western TX, southern AZ, central/southern CA, and HI. We both love good restaurants and want easy access to top medical facilities and personnel so that steered us towards a large city. I love kayaking and boating so that kind of ruled out southern AZ. The COL in CA and HI ruled them out so here we are and we are happy with our choice. Obviously if heat bothers you more than cold Austin wouldn't be a good choice.
by Top99%
Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 396
Views: 44096

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Is it bad that I'm excitedly anticipating the enjoyment I'll get watching the future TSLA crash unfold? Not gonna lie, I like watching a good train wreck too. And I own and love Tesla. But I don’t see it ending any other way..... I own and love a Tesla model 3 but don't own TSLA the stock outside of my index funds. One of the Tesla forum members was so kind as to point out that if I had put the $50K cash I paid for my model 3 in the summer of 2018 into TSLA stock it would worth $800K+. I really appreciated that. I At this point the frothiness around it reminds me of that around my former employer, Cisco Systems (ticker CSCO), during the Tech Bubble. The Internet was going to change everything and CSCO's growth potential was unlimited. Obvi...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?
Replies: 177
Views: 22766

Re: What is the "Quit when you won the game" portfolio?

100% TSLA because it is undervalued and going up every day. :moneybag :mrgreen:
Seriously I guess it depends on what risks you are most concerned about (unexpected inflation, deflation, the one that starts with "conf" and ends with "tion" which we aren't allowed to discuss) and how much volatility you can stomach. For me it is a mix of bonds, CDs, alts and stock index funds. I will give up higher potential returns for (hopefully) a smoother ride. All roads carry risks.
by Top99%
Thu Jan 07, 2021 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 396
Views: 44096

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

This looks similar to Cisco. At its current growth rate, Tesla would be larger than the entire U.S. economy by around the summer of 2027. Yeah... The frothiness on some of the threads in the Tesla forum is pretty unreal. One poster is claiming that at $1000 per share (~1 trillion market cap) that Tesla would be "grossly undervalued".... I do remember that giddy feeling of my Nortel stock options going up in value more than my annual salary daily during the Tech Bubble. What a party but it ended with me making enough money to buy a nice grill. While I doubt Tesla will go the way of Nortel the stock seems priced for Tesla to earn 2x what the entire auto industry earns today. Even if they do get their "robotaxi" business g...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 06, 2021 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world
Replies: 396
Views: 44096

Re: Tesla becomes most valuable car company in the world

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:09 am Every day this stock seems to go up

On its way to 800B now
Yep. TSLA is partying like its 1999. Lay the price chart of TSLA on top of many stock charts during the tech bubble and it is uncanny. I love my Tesla model 3 and believe Tesla has a very bright future but I am good with limiting my TSLA holdings to CAP weight in my index funds.
by Top99%
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utility Stocks
Replies: 15
Views: 1976

Re: Utility Stocks

I think part of it might be that markets tend to be forward looking and at some point when batteries or other storage technologies and solar panels get cheap enough first businesses and later consumers will generate their own power (or participate in microgrids) and eventually disconnect from the grid.
by Top99%
Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How Am I Doing
Replies: 6
Views: 895

Re: How Am I Doing

You are doing great in my opinion. +1 on getting an Umbrella policy since that will essentially give you a lawyer on retainer in case you ever get sued. Basically if the insurance company has $1m+ of skin in the game they will be motivated to defend their interests and yours. I would also watch out for lifestyle creep since that is an easy trap to fall into and as my wife and I can attest to, difficult to get out of. I would also make sure you both keep yours skills marketable, especially once you pass 40 years of age and/or if you have non-secure jobs (IE work in Technology).
by Top99%
Sun Dec 13, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Regrets: What's One Investment You Wish You Bought More Of?
Replies: 60
Views: 5361

Re: Regrets: What's One Investment You Wish You Bought More Of?

Since the title contains "Bought More Of" I assume one must have bought "some" of that investment for it to qualify. So, TSLA and FANNGM stocks are off the table for me since I don't buy individual stocks. I guess that leaves S&P 500 since large cap growth stocks have had such a fantastic run.
by Top99%
Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have a crapton of ESPP to sell - help with tax strategy?
Replies: 33
Views: 3005

Re: Have a crapton of ESPP to sell - help with tax strategy?

I would be more worried about having a significant portion of my net worth tied up in the stock of my employer and sell enough to get down to no more than 10% of my net worth regardless of the tax consequences. Having lost 80% of my net worth in 15 minutes on my one of my employers stock I have learned the hard way about concentrated risk.
by Top99%
Sat Dec 12, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If your net worth were the following amounts, how much real estate would you own?
Replies: 142
Views: 12732

Re: If your net worth were the following amounts, how much real estate would you own?

At any of those numbers we would own maybe a $750K home (Vs our 400K home now) and then do luxury rentals or penthouse suites in hotels with the rest. We would also have a personal chef.