Search found 234 matches

by Top99%
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 33
Views: 3412

Re: The Power of Working Longer

ThePrince wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:04 am
How about the power of saving more. There, I like that much better.
Indeed. :sharebeer
by Top99%
Sat Jan 20, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing for a lay off - what steps to take now
Replies: 36
Views: 3202

Re: Preparing for a lay off - what steps to take now

I am very sorry to hear about your impending layoff. My hat is off to you for building up a nice nest eggs since that gives you some options and hopefully helps you sleep at night. If you haven't already done so you might want to make sure your asset allocation (Stocks Vs Bonds) is in your comfort z...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 121
Views: 14445

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

I don’t have any interest in buying individual stock. But I’d love to be the next CEO of GE trying to turn it around. Sounds like a fascinating challenge. GE board members can PM me 8-) Forget the challenge. I'd like to be CEO because even if I ran it into the ground, like Imelt, I'd make millions....
by Top99%
Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017
Replies: 25
Views: 4917

Re: Larry Swedroe: Lessons From 2017

The first part was especially interesting to me because in my early days I thought it should be easy to be an index by just starting with the index and dropping the losers. How hard could that be? Well the data shows it is pretty hard.
by Top99%
Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?
Replies: 63
Views: 4418

Re: Anyone pondering moving to a cheaper place and downsizing?

We moved to a slightly more expensive area but lowered costs overall by downsizing our house. By being more efficient with the space (wall bed in one room to double purpose it, Elfa shelving in closets, taking advantage of walls and ceilings in garage for storage etc.) and getting rid of a lot of st...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 40
Views: 6509

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

...The bigger problem is people's savings' rates. Most people aren't saving close to enough to be able to retire comfortably. The median net worth, including home equity, of 65-69 year olds is just under $200k. This to me is a potential 'black swan' event that can affect us all. With huge deficits ...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 13, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2452

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

I never really understood the case for commodities but I find the evidence for at least the value and momentum factors compelling enough to tilt that way especially as TSM increasingly becomes a big bet on large cap growth at current valuations. I think at today's LCG valuations one could easily arg...
by Top99%
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting your spouse on the same page
Replies: 53
Views: 4996

Re: Getting your spouse on the same page

What helped for me was to sell my wife on the benefits frugality would bring: Earlier FI. In my case my wife didn't like her job so the frugality = >5 years earlier FI sale was effective. If your wife loves her job (or loves having you away from the house at work) this won't be too effective. Also, ...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?
Replies: 75
Views: 12157

Re: Is it time for me to "call in rich"?

I think this is a slam dunk case finance wise. The key is you have such a low expense floor (way under 2%) relative to your nest egg size.
I would go for it for sure. If you work for a Megacorp you might check and see if they will let you stay in their group health care plan at your expense.
by Top99%
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33543

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Thanks OP and fellow Bogleheads for a thread that I am finding very helpful in balancing the risks of running out of money Vs running out of healthy retirement years. I dipped one toe into the retirement pool about 12 months ago and went part time at 56 years old. I think I am ready to put an entir...
by Top99%
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 33543

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Thanks OP and fellow Bogleheads for a thread that I am finding very helpful in balancing the risks of running out of money Vs running out of healthy retirement years. I dipped one toe into the retirement pool about 12 months ago and went part time at 56 years old. I think I am ready to put an entire...
by Top99%
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Disappointed in Missing a Long Term Financial Goal
Replies: 32
Views: 3921

Re: Disappointed in Missing a Long Term Financial Goal

I agree with many others: Your savings rate is good and you are really at the mercy of Mr Market. The only thing I might consider and which we did during the 01-02 and 09-10 "sales" is when the next "stock market sale" comes temporarily becoming even more frugal to take advantage of the sale. But, i...
by Top99%
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2263

Re: Early Retirement Planning Strategy

I agree with some of the other posters that health care is potentially a big concern. Some megacorps will allow you to stay in their health care plan when you retire. You would pay the full cost but potentially benefit from the group rate and not need to worry about "pre-existing conditions" putting...
by Top99%
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 34
Views: 4066

Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Thanks triceratop and Todd! I will print both versions of the table and staple them to my forehead. To me this table is the most compelling piece of visual evidence I have seen for the value of diversification.
by Top99%
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10260

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

There is an argument against small cap outperformance that is based in changes to modern industrial structure: In short, the big companies are keeping the small guys down through the unprecedented power of network effects (due to technology) and monopoly (due to a weakened anti-trust regime). That'...
by Top99%
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: new book from co-author of Millionaire Next Door
Replies: 7
Views: 2324

Re: new book from co-author of Millionaire Next Door

Thanks for finding this and I just dropped it into my Kindle app. The Millionaire Next Door and The Millionaire Mind are two of my favorite books.
by Top99%
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10260

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

There is an argument against small cap outperformance that is based in changes to modern industrial structure: In short, the big companies are keeping the small guys down through the unprecedented power of network effects (due to technology) and monopoly (due to a weakened anti-trust regime). That'...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients
Replies: 53
Views: 7755

Re: "Can I Really Retire at 40?" What to Tell Clients

I think the simple answer is if they have a combination of assets and spending flexibility that analysis with Longinvest's excellent variable withdrawal rate table (I never miss an opportunity to praise it) shows an acceptable income range the answer is "yes". Otherwise it is either a no or a "maybe...
by Top99%
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10260

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

All of the evidence I have seen of outperformance is based upon data pre-2011 when SCV information was not fully disseminated to the market & the strategies were not as widely implemented in the market. Since 2011, the performance has shown what you would expect from an arbed factor. I was a believ...
by Top99%
Fri Jan 05, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6200

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

I am somewhat new here, but factor investing seems very un Bogle like. Picking a factor feels like looking in the rearview mirror and hoping a class of asset will repeat past performance / outperformance. I thought the idea is to own the market as a part of an asset allocation you can live with, ke...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6200

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

Certainly international and value investors have required patience over the last decade. For the former that patience is finally being rewarded but for the latter the waiting continues. I find periodically peeking at the Callan table https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_periodic_table_of_investme...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6200

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

Certainly international and value investors have required patience over the last decade. For the former that patience is finally being rewarded but for the latter the waiting continues. I find periodically peeking at the Callan table https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Callan_periodic_table_of_investmen...
by Top99%
Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues
Replies: 16
Views: 1999

Re: Non Public-traded REIT nightmare continues

Thanks for sharing and helping others benefit from your experience. It sounds like your "trusted advisor" followed the well worn path of selling you "sticky" assets in an attempt to achieve what is known in the Megacorp world as "vendor lock-in". One thing I have learned is the value to me of a prod...
by Top99%
Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Before buying gold, have a look at these returns since 1975
Replies: 84
Views: 6608

Re: Before buying gold, have a look at these returns since 1975

The main reason to own gold is that you may not be able to bribe the border guards with bitcoins. :P but then the guards could easily confiscate all your gold and leave your for dead, right? If I had a nest egg 150-200x my expenses (which I don't) I could see storing 25-50x my expenses worth of gol...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 30, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saving a little, here and there...
Replies: 21
Views: 3760

Re: Saving a little, here and there...

Most millionaires are made 10 bucks at a time so you are wise to look a saving opportunities. Some pretty painless saving opportunities we use: 1) Use MNVOs such as Republic Wireless or Consumer Cellular for cell phone service and pay cash for a non-leading edge phone. 2) Maximize deductibles on car...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joined the club
Replies: 4
Views: 524

Re: Joined the club

Congratulations on a great achievement and your path mirrors that of many of us and is very different than what most non-Bogleheads think is required :massive income over an extended period of time
by Top99%
Thu Dec 28, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10541

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Generally, the concerns about the LP seem to be that (1) the high bond allocation will be a drawback in the future because rates are low and likely to go up, and (2) the 30% allocation to SCV represents data-mining and won't continue to work in the future either. Both of these concerns are legitima...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we downsize?
Replies: 42
Views: 3079

Re: Should we downsize?

I guess I will be one of the contrarians on this thread... I suggest looking at the upside of selling the house and then deciding if that outweighs the downside. The main upside is it will free up money that could be allocated for other purposes including some combination of: 1) Shortening your time...
by Top99%
Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10541

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

This http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife16.html has some interesting data on many portfolios discussed on this forum. The data is over a year old but it is still interesting. One thing not mentioned in this thread yet is the Larry Portfolio also reduces right tail upside so it isn't a free l...
by Top99%
Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:58 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: My Christmas Present to You
Replies: 90
Views: 8209

Re: My Christmas Present to You

Merry Christmas Taylor and more importantly *THANK YOU* for your service. I wouldn't be here typing this (in English at least) without the sacrifices you and others made.
-Bill
by Top99%
Sun Dec 24, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 3925

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

Anyways, back at the ranch after my lengthy digression, I think that the world of energy has really changed. Not sure that putting big bets on Oil and Natural Gas will work this time. Sort of like what happened when we started powering our ships with oil rather than coal. We might be seeing the sam...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Happy New Year. Congratulations on your progress! What success tips do we pass on to others?
Replies: 20
Views: 2129

Re: Happy New Year. Congratulations on your progress! What success tips do we pass on to others?

3. Recognize when you have "enough" (at that point you can stop increasing your lifestyle). 6. Be grateful for all that you have. These two in particular are important and often are overlooked in my opinion. To help get there understanding what truly makes you happy helps a lot. For example, would ...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using home warranty to re-key your house
Replies: 12
Views: 1394

Re: Using home warranty to re-key your house

If you have the money and are serious about home security I recommend Medeco locks. The big advantage is to get duplicate keys made requires a trip to a Medeco dealer and proof of identity.
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paid Off $340K in Student Loans in 4 Years!
Replies: 21
Views: 1657

Re: Paid Off $340K in Student Loans in 4 Years!

:sharebeer Congratulations and this now also means you have an $85K / year savings habit. There are worse habits to have :beer
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The extended bull market
Replies: 53
Views: 4233

Re: The extended bull market

I guess I will 'fess up and await my citation from the market timing and "stay the course" police: The bull market in US equities along with the desire to further diversify did lead me to put about 15% of our nest egg in alternatives. A couple of years ago when the bull market in REITs resulted in t...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?
Replies: 41
Views: 5137

Re: What is or was your target multiplier (_ x annual expenses) for retirement?

For us it was 50x our minimum expenses and 20x our desired expenses. We don't mind lots of annual variation in our spending.
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How I got to $1.5MM
Replies: 42
Views: 7356

Re: How I got to $1.5MM

Thanks for posting this and our own path started in 1985 as well. But, we really didn't start paying attention until 1999. Before then I can't even remember what funds we put our 401K money in. In 1999 I had Nortel stock options worth $X MM so I figured I was set and didn't need to worry about "inve...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 23, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement pros and cons:
Replies: 58
Views: 6744

Re: Early retirement pros and cons:

A quote I recently heard: "Don't retire from your job, retire to something else." This is great advice in my opinion. On the contiuum of job satisfaction ranging from "I work just for the money" to "I would do the job even if they didn't pay me" I am somewhat past midway towards the latter. I went ...
by Top99%
Fri Dec 22, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 3925

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

You might want to read the book "Burn Out: The Endgame for Fossil Fuels" by Dieter Helm before putting money in the energy sector. While there is some speculation in the book I found it pretty compelling overall. But not compelling enough that I would *short* the energy sector.
by Top99%
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it
Replies: 30
Views: 2582

Re: How would you value a business if you considered investing in it

I think many of the responses in this thread are hinting at why active managers generally fail to beat index funds. The only thing I would add is to look at competing businesses and see if they are stronger/weaker relative to the business in question.
by Top99%
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: TurboTax Prices
Replies: 156
Views: 18004

Re: TurboTax Prices

A couple of years ago TurboTax and Amazon had a deal where you could apply IIRC 120% of your refund to an Amazon Gift card. That year I sent Uncle Sam some extra money so I could make a quick 20% on this "loan". If this deal comes up again I will announce it.
by Top99%
Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford it: Dodge Challenger
Replies: 122
Views: 6443

Re: Can I afford it: Dodge Challenger

Cars are a leading cause of financial suicide (up there with McMansions) but in this case I think you might suffer a flesh wound at worst. What has helped me with decisions like this is to back of the envelope calculate the difference in month cost (payment, fuel, insurance) between this and the min...
by Top99%
Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dog Years Of Investing
Replies: 6
Views: 2000

Re: The Dog Years Of Investing

This article mirrors my own experience and another factor that helps is as one ages time appears to go by faster which amplifies the effect. It seemed like a long tough slog getting to $250K but then helped by tail winds from REITs post the tech bubble crash and equities post GFC things moved along ...
by Top99%
Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?
Replies: 39
Views: 7450

Re: What exactly happened in Japan...and can it happen here?

I think one of the things that sets the bubble in Japan aside was the sheer magnitude and scope of it. It would be almost like if the tech bubble and the US real estate bubble (times some value greater than 10) had happened concurrently. It is just hard for me to see real estate getting *that* far o...
by Top99%
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Psychological anxiety to retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1484

Re: Psychological anxiety to retirement

As some other posters suggest I think some combination of going part time (to keep some money coming in) and volunteer work you enjoy would be worth exploring. Since you saved a lot of money quite quickly and have fairly low expenses I suspect going from hyper-saving to tapping your savings (even at...
by Top99%
Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Worth it financially to trade my Tesla Model S for a Model 3? Got my configuration invite
Replies: 34
Views: 2452

Re: Worth it financially to trade my Tesla Model S for a Model 3? Got my configuration invite

I think the Model 3 will ultimately be less expensive to keep on the road for an extended period of time: 1) Mostly conventional steel construction - should be less expensive to repair and therefore insure 2) It is missing 2 expensive to repair and prone to fail components on the Model S: powered do...
by Top99%
Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3110

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

I guess I would challenge the assumption that most index fund investors are "buy and hold" investors. Certainly during the GFC several of my coworkers panicked and exchanged their 401K equity index funds for bonds or cash. A lot of people are in reality buy and hold "until/unless X or Y happens" reg...
by Top99%
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ESPP - Would you participate and what's your strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 1717

Re: ESPP - Would you participate and what's your strategy

g$$ wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:15 am
max it out, sell, rinse and repeat.
+1. Opportunities to earn an immediate 15% pre-tax return virtually risk free are always worth taking advantage of.
by Top99%
Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Done gone and did it [Retire]
Replies: 80
Views: 8007

Re: Done gone and did it [Retire]

Congratulations and keep us updated on how it is going. :beer I went part time from Megacorp in last Feb so I have one foot in the retirement pool. Liking the water so far and no sharks have bitten me.
by Top99%
Tue Dec 12, 2017 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value
Replies: 20
Views: 2781

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value

This was indeed and interesting article and I agree dealing with tracking error is a real problem and an opportunity with the latter coming when others lose patience and drive down prices through selling. Whenever my patience get's tested I just look at the Callan Periodic Table Of Investment return...