Search found 443 matches

by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: helping a creative child grow
Replies: 40
Views: 2084

Re: helping a creative child grow

Make sure she has time to be bored. Creativity will be the result.
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Re: Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns

Well remember the other side of fear is greed ... And people lose just as much that way Buying US stocks at today's valuations, even after a 10% drop, may still look a little optimistic with hindsight ... I think if you want to embrace the volatility today, you've really got to be maintaining those...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500
Replies: 125
Views: 13479

Re: worst first four opening days in HISTORY for S&P 500

A great Man once said: "The eye is the lamp of the body; so then if your eye is clear, your whole body will be full of light. 23 But if your eye is bad, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light that is in you is darkness, how great is the darkness!…" Nice to see behavior...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sharing Advice from meeting with High Level Vanguard Advisor
Replies: 61
Views: 8593

Re: Sharing Advice from meeting with High Level Vanguard Advisor

I wonder why he advises against a glide path and advises for a static allocation until retirement. It seems to me that it is more profitable to be move heavily invested in equities early when you have more time to compound growth. I guess it might make sense from a behavioral standpoint, in that you...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Ten Bear Market Truths"
Replies: 16
Views: 2561

Re: "Ten Bear Market Truths"

Great reminder! I liked this one particularly: "10. These are the times that successful investors separate themselves from the pack. Most investors mistakenly assume that you make all of your money during bull markets. The reason so many investors fail is because they make poor decisions when m...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Re: Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns

That's the idea, anyway. The Japanese are still waiting, the Russian investors in 1914 would disagree with you, the Dutch East India Company was pretty volatile before it collapsed, and if I remember correctly the NAV of QQQ (the darling of the dot com world in 1999) is still below what it was when...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns
Replies: 6
Views: 563

Embrace the volatility: it is good for future returns

The more volatility we have, the more risk premium that will reward the disciplined in the future. :sharebeer :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer
by Tigermoose
Sun Jan 03, 2016 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Asset Class Returns
Replies: 18
Views: 3117

Re: 2015 Asset Class Returns

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Tigermoose wrote:It was a year of "diworsification".

Thank you. What will 2016 be?
PJW


It will be the year prior to 2017.
by Tigermoose
Fri Jan 01, 2016 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2015 Asset Class Returns
Replies: 18
Views: 3117

Re: 2015 Asset Class Returns

It was a year of "diworsification".
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?
Replies: 56
Views: 7903

Re: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?

I also just want to say I think it highly more likely that nations will error on the side of inflation rather than deflation as they manage their money supplies and debt obligations.
by Tigermoose
Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?
Replies: 56
Views: 7903

Re: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?

Like you, I was influenced by Bernstein's Deep Risk to add some inflation protection in the form of CCFs, VGPMX, and a real assets inflation protection fund in my 401k. Currently I am buying into the real asset inflation protection to meet my asset allocation goals. My thinking has been that inflati...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 31, 2015 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends for funds in a 401k custom fund
Replies: 2
Views: 129

Dividends for funds in a 401k custom fund

My wife's 401k through Fidelity and her old corporation consists of custom funds that are not considered mutual funds. I cannot find out what happens to the dividends that these funds should pay out. Does anyone know what is going on here? Should I be concerned that extra fees are being charged by m...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?
Replies: 81
Views: 8239

Re: Individual Stocks Does it Ever Make Sense?

You can gift stock at its Fair market Value to a charitable organization and not have to pay for any capital appreciation on that stock.
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 25, 2015 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 2898
Views: 604588

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Futures are up 1.5%+. Let's hope it stays that way tomorrow. Sure, there could be a bounce today, given that China has done something to try and stem the tide... and it could go right back down tomorrow or the next. Go look at the Dow action in the fall of 2008. We had some big down days, but we al...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reallocating while the market is moving quickly
Replies: 9
Views: 1170

Re: Reallocating while the market is moving quickly

How about you just wait until that fund has a positive trading day, then do your rebalancing? Its not a guarantee that the knife won't keep falling...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Pascal's Wager and prudent investment decisions
Replies: 29
Views: 3589

Re: Pascal's Wager and prudent investment decisions

Interesting article, but Pascal's Wager might not be the best story to refer to when trying to build a logical case for something. I say that because Pascal's Wager has numerous well-known logical flaws. For a quick refresher check out this wiki: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Pascal's_wager#Criticis...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential Energy Downside?
Replies: 27
Views: 2479

Re: Potential Energy Downside?

The fact that everyone is doom and gloom about it is a good contrarian indicator. Or it could mean it will continue to decline :?

If you know about some bad news, you can rest assured that if it is True is it already baked into the current market price.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Potential Energy Downside?
Replies: 27
Views: 2479

Re: Potential Energy Downside?

Of course there is a downside. That's why it is risky. That's why it has the potential for a significant return on capital - or a significant loss.
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 20, 2015 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 6592

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

So I watched the Bloomberg interview with Greenspan. He talks about time preference as being the foundation of where interest rates should be. Time preference is the human value of time. Interest rates should be a determination of the future value of money based on how much we value time. "GREE...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston
Replies: 71
Views: 6592

Re: Greenspan: we've got a bond bubble, Houston

I think we have all assumed that investors are rational and thus the rate rise would be managed and not dramatic. But what happens if an irrational run for the exits occurs in the bond market? How fast could rates rise if we have a panic sell? Again, this would not be rational, but an irrational rea...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a look at impact of financialization of commodities
Replies: 20
Views: 1949

Re: a look at impact of financialization of commodities

Thanks Larry! CCFs have taken a beating, but that's why you rebalance in order to buy low and sell high. What do you think about a diversified real asset fund like PDRDX? Does this type of fund serve a similar purpose as a pure CCF? This is in my company's 401k, and therefore attractive to me as a w...
by Tigermoose
Thu Jun 25, 2015 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 28228

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

S&P PE ratio is 20.7 --- not too bad.

http://www.multpl.com/
by Tigermoose
Wed Jun 17, 2015 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laddered Corporate Bond Interest Rate Scenario Tool
Replies: 2
Views: 286

Re: Laddered Corporate Bond Interest Rate Scenario Tool

This tool helps me be less fearful of bonds in the current environment. I'm a more visual oriented person, so this helps me a great deal.
by Tigermoose
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Laddered Corporate Bond Interest Rate Scenario Tool
Replies: 2
Views: 286

Laddered Corporate Bond Interest Rate Scenario Tool

Very useful and cool tool to show how corporate bonds will far over the next several years in a rising interest rate environment.

http://funds.eatonvance.com/laddered-corporate-bond-interest-rate-scenario-tool.php
by Tigermoose
Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."
Replies: 152
Views: 11468

Re: Stemikger "Volatility is far from synonymous with risk."

Built into Buffet's essay on Risk is an assumption that the future long term returns on stocks will be similar to the past long term returns on stocks. This is not a given, and by doing this he begs the question.
by Tigermoose
Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warning Signs [Economic health indicators]
Replies: 282
Views: 40426

Re: Warning Signs

What about patterns where the FRED recession probability hits 3 but then either flatlines or goes down? What is the likelihood of that occurring vs. the dramatic increases that you show?
by Tigermoose
Mon May 04, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule
Replies: 67
Views: 6262

Re: Gross: stockbug alert, future investment returns will be miniscule

What does this mean? " not another Lehman crash, but a crush of perpetual bull market enthusiasm"
by Tigermoose
Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 6751

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

I don't know how the parents do it, unless the children can learn most of it from books or online. I have a BA and have some work towards a PhD. I could not have taught my kids many of their subjects at the level that they studied them. I might have re-learned a lot had I been teaching them at home...
by Tigermoose
Thu Apr 30, 2015 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 6751

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

I should have said: But they discount the invisible, the invisible osmosis that occurs with your child from his peer group and his teachers, which the (private) school environment has in spades over the home school environment. (And there are probably other invisible benefits of private school.) I ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 6751

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

This would also apply to home schooling: it is true that a home schooled child will get much better attention and tailoring of the curriculum to her needs, but then why are not all the most successful people home schooled? Homeschooling is growing rapidly in popularity as people realize it can be t...
by Tigermoose
Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private Schools - Tuition
Replies: 90
Views: 6751

Re: Private Schools - Tuition

Have you ever considered home education?
by Tigermoose
Tue Apr 21, 2015 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cash as an asset class?
Replies: 35
Views: 3596

Re: Cash as an asset class?

Would it be OK to count pensions as part of one's cash asset type?
by Tigermoose
Fri Nov 14, 2014 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth and Expected Returns — Why So Low?
Replies: 35
Views: 4206

Re: Global Growth and Expected Returns — Why So Low?

The Millennials in the USA are coming to the rescue...just be patient. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/graphics/population/US_popgraph%202014.bmp Check out the size of the 20-29 population cohort. Its as big or bigger than the baby boomers! They also have the most college...
by Tigermoose
Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Echo (Alexa)
Replies: 70
Views: 11606

Re: Amazon Echo (Alexa)

I'm on the waiting list as well. This just seems like a great use of existing technology. My kids will love this.
by Tigermoose
Fri Nov 07, 2014 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Sky is Falling
Replies: 36
Views: 6780

Re: The Sky is Falling

I better get into the triple leveraged cash position.
by Tigermoose
Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
Replies: 47
Views: 4544

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund

I hold some VGPMX and will be adding some more because I want to have some unexpected inflation hedge, along with other inflation hedges in my portfolio. It will not be a whole lot (2% of my portfolio), but inflation is enemy number one.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformation?
Replies: 16
Views: 2051

Re: Possibility of financial markets breakdown / transformat

I'm paying down my mortgage to avoid the risk of losing my house if I lose my job and there is a financial collapse/depression of some sort. There are other reasons for paying down my mortgage, but this is one consideration.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RBD for Gold Miners
Replies: 12
Views: 1862

Re: RBD for Gold Miners

This is why you earn a risk premium for Staying the Course.
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 79
Views: 12201

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

If you want to buy portfolio insurance, this might be the time to do it as prices have declined. The best time to buy asset classes is when they are being relentlessly trashed. If you are interested in commodities as portfolio insurance, it also is time to start looking into these. Contrary thinkin...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 53
Views: 7554

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

The key thing to understand is that Bogleheads make money off of the earnings provided by U. S. and international companies. We are NOT engaged in the greater fool speculation that your article writer thinks is the key to making money in the stock market.
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed
Replies: 53
Views: 7554

Re: A Challenge for Bogleheads - the market has changed

Investing in stocks means that you are invested in businesses that are making profits. As long as companies earn money and then distribute those earnings through dividends and stock buybacks, then you can count on making money off of stocks. By continually rebalancing and purchasing stocks at regula...
by Tigermoose
Wed Oct 29, 2014 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?
Replies: 17
Views: 2114

Re: How should we invest if interest rates never go up?

couple things, first ignore rate forecasts --100% of economists were wrong about rates this year and most have been wrong for many years. Stay disciplined and take advantage of term premiums, especially when curve is steep--that is when term risk has been best rewarded And as noted, have to lower e...
by Tigermoose
Tue Oct 28, 2014 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Any contrarians for commodity futures?
Replies: 6
Views: 615

Re: Any contrarians for commodity futures?

I use DBC to add some unexpected inflation protection, especially as relates to supply side shocks. Eventually I hope to add some more intermediate bonds that will hopefully negatively correlate with this commodities futures fund. I'm waiting for QE to end and the Fed funds rate to "normalize&q...
by Tigermoose
Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timing?
Replies: 7
Views: 1458

Re: Take the plunge on long term treasuries vs. market timin

The following scenario would not be favorable for LTT. Inflation outpaces growth without any major crashes or recessions. As investors' fears of deflation are replaced by fears of inflation, you will lose a significant amount of value from your LTT. The negative correlation of LTT with equities goes...
by Tigermoose
Sun Oct 26, 2014 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?
Replies: 79
Views: 12201

Re: VGPMX: anyone contrarian enough to buy it?

Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX) is extremely volatile, one year the best performing fund at Vanguard, a few years later the worst. Hardly a "dog". We used this fund for 7 1/2 years, did make money on it with a good return above the S&P 500, but recently sold out becau...
by Tigermoose
Fri Oct 24, 2014 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds
Replies: 20
Views: 2045

Re: Prediction: Rise of Concentrated Funds

I'll stick with the $&P 500.
by Tigermoose
Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to buy oil in the stock market?
Replies: 32
Views: 3124

Re: How to buy oil in the stock market?

You can buy futures in DBC. For oil in stocks, you would purchase an energy fund of some sort.

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