Search found 533 matches

by Tigermoose
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Frustrated Losing Weight!
Replies: 131
Views: 6642

Re: Frustrated Losing Weight!

As alfaspider said above, you might need a total lifestyle change for all the reasons he or she said. Excellent advice. I think adding muscle through weight training also enables you to burn more calories (muscle needs more calories to maintain). Crossfit is a great way to do this while also giving ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club
Replies: 68
Views: 6290

Re: Mr. Money Mustache Staying in Lending Club

He told me that his blog is now earning around four hundred thousand dollars a year. He was reluctant for this to become public, without his being able to provide a detailed explanation. He makes money from the products and services he recommends—Betterment, Lending Club, Geico, and numerous others...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing early..!
Replies: 31
Views: 1839

Re: Investing early is better. Myth debunked!

Probability vs Certainty
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commonplace Thesis (on chance vs randomness) and Bogleheads theory and debates on this forum
Replies: 9
Views: 677

Re: Commonplace Thesis (on chance vs randomness) and Bogleheads theory and debates on this forum

If I recall correctly, Plato (or maybe it was Aristotle...hmm...) made a distinction between purposeful action vs. accidental. If an action is the result of an intention (purpose), then it is not an accident. If something happens that was not intended, then it is accidental. So I would say that the ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oil & Gas Long Term Risk
Replies: 31
Views: 1712

Re: Oil & Gas Long Term Risk

Is anyone concerned about the long term risk of oil and gas companies in a cap-weighted S&P 500 portfolio? Currently Exxon is the the number four equity in VFINX. If you're holding for the long term, isn't there a concern that a significant amount of that equity value goes away as the world tap...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plans - 1 Plan for all kids vs. multiple plans
Replies: 8
Views: 659

Re: 529 Plans - 1 Plan for all kids vs. multiple plans

Something else you might want to consider is how much financial aid you are likely to qualify for, and the impact of 529s funds for that. For example, if all the money is in the 2nd child's name. the first child might qualify for more aid. You could transfer it over his last year... I have heard pe...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sometimes this time really is different
Replies: 41
Views: 5015

Re: Sometimes this time really is different

Although the tools and theories we have at our disposal change over time, human nature has not significantly changed. Fear, greed, and the mass delusions of crowds and society are an ever-present condition of mankind. Fun exercise: what are the mass delusions we currently embrace that will someday b...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 Plans - 1 Plan for all kids vs. multiple plans
Replies: 8
Views: 659

Re: 529 Plans - 1 Plan for all kids vs. multiple plans

The 529 Plan we use has age-based allocations. So each child has his or her own account, and it modifies its allocation as the child gets closer to age 18. This is a useful way to automatically manage risk. We tend to put most of the new money in the youngest child's account, in order to get a longe...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Oil & Gas Long Term Risk
Replies: 31
Views: 1712

Re: Oil & Gas Long Term Risk

I started to worry about about the oil majors before the price collapse. This worry is called the 'Carbon Bubble', if you want to search for info. The basic idea is that even if alternative energy is technically and economically feasible/favorable, its effect on legacy energy systems may do signifi...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In what order should I read these books?
Replies: 34
Views: 2505

Re: In what order should I read these books?

I also liked Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run. It helps you sleep better at night knowing that, in the long run, equities are not that risky (as long as you are indexing).
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My 8 year old son taught me a good lesson tonight
Replies: 16
Views: 3943

Re: My 8 year old son taught me a good lesson tonight

Cute story, What are you going to do when DS wants to fasten one of the cards to his bike with clothespins so it makes a noise when he rides? :P It would be truly wonderful if kids were so easily amused now as we and our parents were! Amen to that. And it's both difficult and expensive to clip smar...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Outlook on oil
Replies: 53
Views: 3289

Re: Outlook on oil

What are the odds that somewhere between now and death there will be war in the Middle East that will send the price of oil through the roof, at least temporarily? What are the odds that inflation will unexpectedly rise higher than forecast and lead to a substantial increase in the price of oil? The...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myopic loss aversion helps explain the equity premium puzzle
Replies: 15
Views: 1826

Re: Myopic loss aversion helps explain the equity premium puzzle

Larry, do you (and do researchers) expect the equity premium to persist? If it decreases over time because of greater financial literacy (indexing is definitely becoming mainstream, as are robo-advisers), and if inflation and real interest rates remain low, couldn't the resulting massively lowered ...
by Tigermoose
Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I have a feeling this horse has been beaten to death, but why don't you just buy a TIPS fund like VAIPX instead of building TIPS ladders at auction? For saving the ER of .10% ?
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 26, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I need a real estate agent as a buyer?
Replies: 58
Views: 3392

Re: Do I need a real estate agent as a buyer?

So as a buyer, you do not normally have to pay a buyer agent? The fees come from the seller?
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 25, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

For fighting inflation, keep the following advice from Larry Swedroe in mind: 1. By taking a longer term TIPS, you can add some more equities to your portfolio. 2. By taking some commodities, you can increase the term length of your bonds. So based on these two, I would say add longer term TIPS and ...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Looks like Swedroe agrees that CDs are preferable, certainly in the short term. Last time I checked the real yield curve on Bloomberg, TIPS were negative real yield out to 7 years. CDs are the better buy for shorter than 7 year terms. Also, short term inflation risk is very different than long term...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Looks like Swedroe agrees that CDs are preferable, certainly in the short term. Last time I checked the real yield curve on Bloomberg, TIPS were negative real yield out to 7 years. CDs are the better buy for shorter than 7 year terms. Also, short term inflation risk is very different than long term...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I still like TIPS and as an early retiree am concerned about long-term inflation risk. Inflation risk IMHO and per Bernstein's Deep Risks is more likely than deflation. Don't like the negative real yields on short TIPS and thus avoid them. Honestly don't know why anyone would buy TIPS with negative...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Choice / Stable Value in 401k
Replies: 20
Views: 1477

Re: Bond Choice / Stable Value in 401k

I agree that the SV funds are a great vehicle to have available for Fixed Income, especially in the current environment.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 391
Views: 43334

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

So based on the method in Larry's article, here are the calculations: 5 YR TIPS Real Yield is -.21 5 YR Treasury Yield is 1.1429 So 1.1429 + .21 = 1.3529%. So if inflation is greater than 1.3529% in a 5 year period, then TIPS is the way to go. The Expected Inflation rate is 2.1% for the next 5 years...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 2983

Re: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation

I will be hoping my inflation protection assets help buoy my portfolio so that it keeps up with inflation.

TIPS
VGPMX
PDRDX
DBC
VGSLX
Home Equity
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?
Replies: 10
Views: 2634

Re: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?

nedsaid wrote:Since July of 2013, I have been in a mild rebalancing campaign from stocks to bonds. In the event of a market melt up, I would just keep harvesting my stock gains and putting the proceeds into bonds. What else would I do?


LEVER UP BABY! :mrgreen:
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?
Replies: 10
Views: 2634

How will you survive a melt up in stocks?

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/08/how-to-survive-a-melt-up/ I thought this was Bogle Head type advice that would be beneficial to readers here, especially new ones. ... 1. Don't change your strategy 2. Stay within your comfort zone. 3. Avoid chasing yield and substitutes 4. Don’t own more sto...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1147

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

OP - Have you considered adding rules to your Investment Plan to account for "bubble" type manias in the stock market? For example, if the PE ratio of the S&P500 gets above 30, reallocate stocks to bonds by 10%. If it gets to 35, reallocate stocks to bonds another 20%...etc. And you wo...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?
Replies: 116
Views: 10789

Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

peppers wrote:Not at all.

However, when my lovely wife, daughter and granddaughter go to the mall, I experience a certain ....foreboding.


LOL
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Interesting theoretical thoughts but my questions were more pragmatic investor oriented ones. Repeating from OP: So my question is, are the current high market valuations just a reflection of high valuations for stock's competitive alternative -- bonds? And a perhaps more difficult (unanswerable?) ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

When someone buys a bond or an equity, it's not like the money disappears. Money probably ends up on a bank balance sheet. Banks are being forced to hold large amounts of capital which is probably why CPI stays low. The money velocity is very low right now, and I think this is because the 1% has 50...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 763

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

My theory: There is an overabundance of available capital for investment at the present time. This is due to income inequality and the central banks backstopping financial assets from having a serious decline. Since the 1% hold about 50% of all the global wealth, and they tend to invest their excess...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 300
Views: 39388

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

It enabled me to feel confident about having a large family. Since most of it is in retirement accounts, I feel long term wealthy (assuming the world doesn't go to ....), but in the short term I feel pretty much like any other middle class family. I guess if I lived somewhere other than the suburbs ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 300
Views: 39388

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

soboggled wrote:A million dollars isn't what it used to be. A "millionaire" is no big deal, depending on your age.


It puts you in the 1%. That's a pretty big deal. You are probably more wealthy and well off than 99.9% of persons throughout history. That's a pretty big deal.
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

"I have been hearing and myself thinking that there is an excessive amount of capital available for investment" There probably is. PE could go to 50 if everyone in the world got excited about stocks. But, waddaya gonna do? From looking at the wealth report another poster linked to, it see...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

Then this is not the information I was looking for, sorry if I wasn't clearer in my original post. I want to know the amount of capital available, even if that capital is currently invested in stocks and bonds, along with all other capital found in measures such as M2. Credt Suisse Global Wealth Re...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

... Does M2 include stocks and bonds? No. M2 includes what Whackamole said it does, as documented by the link Whackamole provided, which among other things speaks of mutual funds but not the underlying stocks and bonds directly. Any individual stock or bond may easily be far less liquid, therefore ...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

It sounds like you want some numbers about the money supply, specifically the equivalent of M2: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money." M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 682

Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

I have been hearing and myself thinking that there is an excessive amount of capital available for investment, and that is one major reason why asset prices for both bonds and stocks are both at all time highs. Can someone point me to some numbers or charts (preferably) that show the amount of capit...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4426

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

OP - you can't look out your window to decide how the economy is doing. Some areas grow while others decline. My uncle/aunt used to live in a very nice thriving area - now their city-suburb is a slum with houses sitting boarded-up and empty. To them it would like we are in a serious recession. This...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4426

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

mean, median, average. We can calculate it however you want, but the fact is its very well documented in the statistics that the majority of income growth has gone to the top 5-10% of households... and most American families are not enjoying the spoils of the "recovery" Call me a bleeding...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4426

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

Debt for the average family is through the roof. The vast majority cannot afford the deductibles in their healthcare plans. They have little or no free cash flow at the end of the month and no savings. 1 in 7 have a negative net worth. Jobs are plentiful for very skilled workers. We just don't have...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 & Multiple Children
Replies: 26
Views: 1919

Re: 529 & Multiple Children

I move money from kid to kid with zero problems with my 529 plan.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4426

Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

Here in a suburb of St. Louis, I am seeing a lot of Hiring and new business construction. Office space vacant since 2008 is now getting filled. Industrial park land is finally getting construction and tenants. I'm noticing more people at the gym and shops. I'm asking for a raise (we'll see what happ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3456

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

This is a rule I have set. "If S&P PE Ratio goes above 29, then scale back stock allocation 10%, at 34, scale back another 10%, at 39, scale back another 10%, and so on… Rule for increasing stock allocation on the other side: If S&P PE Ratio goes below 25, add 10%. If S&P PE Ratio g...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

At some point price will stabilize or the entire structure of financing will change or both. Unfortunately I do not expect a change to something easier to afford in time to help me (next couple of years). I think we will see a substitution effect as prices continue to rise and new forms of non-trad...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

The financial premium in terms of income for college graduates has *soared* over the past 30 years or so, over those without college educations. That is very clear in the data. It's something like a 40% gap over lifetime. This is for people of the same age. Not all college educations are equal of c...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

I'm always curious about how the college/student loan bubble is supposed to burst? There is no asset that can be taken from a bubble burst like a house through foreclosure or even a car that you can't afford. Payment is guaranteed by Federal Govt at worst and/or wage garnishment can be done without...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

goodenyou wrote:I like Bill Bennett's book "Is College Worth It?". It is well written, and the arguments against excessive debt, overpriced colleges and worthless degrees are compelling.

'

Thanks for the recommendations! Checking them out now...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have A/C fail on an older Honda CRV?
Replies: 50
Views: 8010

Re: Anyone have A/C fail on an older Honda CRV?

My 2000 Honda CRV still has a great A/C with 225,000 miles on it. I hope this thing makes 300,000 and beyond.
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

Educated individuals are aware of the Austrian School's concepts of malinvestment, and elitist control, and the irrelevance of evidence. They may agree or disagree, but they know about it and apply it critically . Now, obviously not everybody is well served by a liberal education (which ain't a pol...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4533

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. PJW Is there a point where you won't pay because it costs too much? There are things called books, libraries, the internet (Bogleheads!), etc where one can become educated without the seal of approval from The Educated Ones behind the curtain. It ...

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