Search found 517 matches

by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 6:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 238
Views: 28628

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Looks like Swedroe agrees that CDs are preferable, certainly in the short term. Last time I checked the real yield curve on Bloomberg, TIPS were negative real yield out to 7 years. CDs are the better buy for shorter than 7 year terms. Also, short term inflation risk is very different than long term...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 238
Views: 28628

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

Looks like Swedroe agrees that CDs are preferable, certainly in the short term. Last time I checked the real yield curve on Bloomberg, TIPS were negative real yield out to 7 years. CDs are the better buy for shorter than 7 year terms. Also, short term inflation risk is very different than long term...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 238
Views: 28628

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

I still like TIPS and as an early retiree am concerned about long-term inflation risk. Inflation risk IMHO and per Bernstein's Deep Risks is more likely than deflation. Don't like the negative real yields on short TIPS and thus avoid them. Honestly don't know why anyone would buy TIPS with negative...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Choice / Stable Value in 401k
Replies: 18
Views: 1101

Re: Bond Choice / Stable Value in 401k

I agree that the SV funds are a great vehicle to have available for Fixed Income, especially in the current environment.
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 24, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 238
Views: 28628

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

So based on the method in Larry's article, here are the calculations: 5 YR TIPS Real Yield is -.21 5 YR Treasury Yield is 1.1429 So 1.1429 + .21 = 1.3529%. So if inflation is greater than 1.3529% in a 5 year period, then TIPS is the way to go. The Expected Inflation rate is 2.1% for the next 5 years...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 2865

Re: What does a Boglehead do if we experience inflation

I will be hoping my inflation protection assets help buoy my portfolio so that it keeps up with inflation.

TIPS
VGPMX
PDRDX
DBC
VGSLX
Home Equity
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?
Replies: 10
Views: 2543

Re: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?

nedsaid wrote:Since July of 2013, I have been in a mild rebalancing campaign from stocks to bonds. In the event of a market melt up, I would just keep harvesting my stock gains and putting the proceeds into bonds. What else would I do?


LEVER UP BABY! :mrgreen:
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 19, 2016 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How will you survive a melt up in stocks?
Replies: 10
Views: 2543

How will you survive a melt up in stocks?

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/08/how-to-survive-a-melt-up/ I thought this was Bogle Head type advice that would be beneficial to readers here, especially new ones. ... 1. Don't change your strategy 2. Stay within your comfort zone. 3. Avoid chasing yield and substitutes 4. Don’t own more sto...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 18, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?
Replies: 15
Views: 1081

Re: Thoughts on having higher bond allocation in portfolio to "buy the dip" when stock drop occurs by rebalancing?

OP - Have you considered adding rules to your Investment Plan to account for "bubble" type manias in the stock market? For example, if the PE ratio of the S&P500 gets above 30, reallocate stocks to bonds by 10%. If it gets to 35, reallocate stocks to bonds another 20%...etc. And you wo...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?
Replies: 102
Views: 7612

Re: Anyone else getting nervous and converting to cash as a short-term move?

peppers wrote:Not at all.

However, when my lovely wife, daughter and granddaughter go to the mall, I experience a certain ....foreboding.


LOL
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 687

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

Interesting theoretical thoughts but my questions were more pragmatic investor oriented ones. Repeating from OP: So my question is, are the current high market valuations just a reflection of high valuations for stock's competitive alternative -- bonds? And a perhaps more difficult (unanswerable?) ...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 687

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

When someone buys a bond or an equity, it's not like the money disappears. Money probably ends up on a bank balance sheet. Banks are being forced to hold large amounts of capital which is probably why CPI stays low. The money velocity is very low right now, and I think this is because the 1% has 50...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 16, 2016 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?
Replies: 12
Views: 687

Re: Equity market valuations just tied to bond rates?

My theory: There is an overabundance of available capital for investment at the present time. This is due to income inequality and the central banks backstopping financial assets from having a serious decline. Since the 1% hold about 50% of all the global wealth, and they tend to invest their excess...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 252
Views: 26624

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

It enabled me to feel confident about having a large family. Since most of it is in retirement accounts, I feel long term wealthy (assuming the world doesn't go to ....), but in the short term I feel pretty much like any other middle class family. I guess if I lived somewhere other than the suburbs ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?
Replies: 252
Views: 26624

Re: Self-made Millionaires: how did hitting 7 figures change you?

soboggled wrote:A million dollars isn't what it used to be. A "millionaire" is no big deal, depending on your age.


It puts you in the 1%. That's a pretty big deal. You are probably more wealthy and well off than 99.9% of persons throughout history. That's a pretty big deal.
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 652

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

"I have been hearing and myself thinking that there is an excessive amount of capital available for investment" There probably is. PE could go to 50 if everyone in the world got excited about stocks. But, waddaya gonna do? From looking at the wealth report another poster linked to, it see...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 652

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

Then this is not the information I was looking for, sorry if I wasn't clearer in my original post. I want to know the amount of capital available, even if that capital is currently invested in stocks and bonds, along with all other capital found in measures such as M2. Credt Suisse Global Wealth Re...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 652

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

... Does M2 include stocks and bonds? No. M2 includes what Whackamole said it does, as documented by the link Whackamole provided, which among other things speaks of mutual funds but not the underlying stocks and bonds directly. Any individual stock or bond may easily be far less liquid, therefore ...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 652

Re: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

It sounds like you want some numbers about the money supply, specifically the equivalent of M2: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes all elements of M1 as well as "near money." M1 includes cash and checking deposits, while near money...
by Tigermoose
Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?
Replies: 12
Views: 652

Any charts or stats that show total amount of investable capital?

I have been hearing and myself thinking that there is an excessive amount of capital available for investment, and that is one major reason why asset prices for both bonds and stocks are both at all time highs. Can someone point me to some numbers or charts (preferably) that show the amount of capit...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4140

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

OP - you can't look out your window to decide how the economy is doing. Some areas grow while others decline. My uncle/aunt used to live in a very nice thriving area - now their city-suburb is a slum with houses sitting boarded-up and empty. To them it would like we are in a serious recession. This...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4140

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

mean, median, average. We can calculate it however you want, but the fact is its very well documented in the statistics that the majority of income growth has gone to the top 5-10% of households... and most American families are not enjoying the spoils of the "recovery" Call me a bleeding...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4140

Re: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

Debt for the average family is through the roof. The vast majority cannot afford the deductibles in their healthcare plans. They have little or no free cash flow at the end of the month and no savings. 1 in 7 have a negative net worth. Jobs are plentiful for very skilled workers. We just don't have...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 529 & Multiple Children
Replies: 26
Views: 1839

Re: 529 & Multiple Children

I move money from kid to kid with zero problems with my 529 plan.
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else noticing the economy improving?
Replies: 78
Views: 4140

Anyone else noticing the economy improving?

Here in a suburb of St. Louis, I am seeing a lot of Hiring and new business construction. Office space vacant since 2008 is now getting filled. Industrial park land is finally getting construction and tenants. I'm noticing more people at the gym and shops. I'm asking for a raise (we'll see what happ...
by Tigermoose
Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?
Replies: 71
Views: 3266

Re: Anyone looking at changing AA in presence of Current Valuations?

This is a rule I have set. "If S&P PE Ratio goes above 29, then scale back stock allocation 10%, at 34, scale back another 10%, at 39, scale back another 10%, and so on… Rule for increasing stock allocation on the other side: If S&P PE Ratio goes below 25, add 10%. If S&P PE Ratio g...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

At some point price will stabilize or the entire structure of financing will change or both. Unfortunately I do not expect a change to something easier to afford in time to help me (next couple of years). I think we will see a substitution effect as prices continue to rise and new forms of non-trad...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

The financial premium in terms of income for college graduates has *soared* over the past 30 years or so, over those without college educations. That is very clear in the data. It's something like a 40% gap over lifetime. This is for people of the same age. Not all college educations are equal of c...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 10, 2016 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

I'm always curious about how the college/student loan bubble is supposed to burst? There is no asset that can be taken from a bubble burst like a house through foreclosure or even a car that you can't afford. Payment is guaranteed by Federal Govt at worst and/or wage garnishment can be done without...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

goodenyou wrote:I like Bill Bennett's book "Is College Worth It?". It is well written, and the arguments against excessive debt, overpriced colleges and worthless degrees are compelling.

'

Thanks for the recommendations! Checking them out now...
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have A/C fail on an older Honda CRV?
Replies: 50
Views: 7731

Re: Anyone have A/C fail on an older Honda CRV?

My 2000 Honda CRV still has a great A/C with 225,000 miles on it. I hope this thing makes 300,000 and beyond.
by Tigermoose
Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

Educated individuals are aware of the Austrian School's concepts of malinvestment, and elitist control, and the irrelevance of evidence. They may agree or disagree, but they know about it and apply it critically . Now, obviously not everybody is well served by a liberal education (which ain't a pol...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

Re: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

If you think education is expensive, try ignorance. PJW Is there a point where you won't pay because it costs too much? There are things called books, libraries, the internet (Bogleheads!), etc where one can become educated without the seal of approval from The Educated Ones behind the curtain. It ...
by Tigermoose
Mon Aug 08, 2016 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: College bubble - any good articles or books on this?
Replies: 57
Views: 4393

College bubble - any good articles or books on this?

I am interested in reading some research and analysis on the extreme college tuition costs and the probability of a crash in the college industry due to an excessive malinvestment in this industry. I don't want a Doom & Gloom goldbug report :P But something even-handed and well researched and we...
by Tigermoose
Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fav books about crashes
Replies: 10
Views: 729

Re: Fav books about crashes

Any good books on inflationary periods, like the 70s? I think the Fed is erring on the side of avoiding a crash, so instead I think they will attempt a controlled inflation that causes a negative real return on savings and bonds. I wonder if they can control it. So I want to see some accounts of oth...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: Calculating overall % gains
Replies: 10
Views: 482

Re: Help: Calculating overall % gains

You would also have to include the gain/loss on investments you no longer have. There might be some other ways you could be off that someone seeing everything you have done would notice. I would have said you were right the first time until you volunteered the information that you weren't necessari...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Next for US Treasury Bonds?
Replies: 24
Views: 2576

Re: What's Next for US Treasury Bonds?

Risk; The value of your money could steadily decrease with time as inflation exceeds the return on your short term bond issues and cash. IMHO - this is extremely likely because governments running high debt levels will use something called Financial Repression to reduce their debt loads. This was do...
by Tigermoose
Wed Aug 03, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help: Calculating overall % gains
Replies: 10
Views: 482

Help: Calculating overall % gains

Is this a valid way to calculate my total % gain for all investments? Add up the Total Cost Basis for all investments Add up the Total Market Value for all investments Calculate Total Market Value minus Total Cost Basis to get Total Gain Divide Total Gain by Total Cost Basis Does this give me an acc...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9145

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

Very true! I am actually not worried about myself (too old), but rather for my children and (hopefully future) grandchildren. It seems that mankind is moving with eyes wide open towards the cliff, with technological progress even accelerating exponential growth and pushing the day of reckoning ever...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan

I just can't put money into a 10yr bond with a yield of 1.4736%. I think this is a record low...can't see any upside. Instead I think I will shift some funds in my wife's 401k where she has a SVF paying 2.61% with no interest rate risk. If we get up to 2%, then I can see putting some money into some...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan

Thanks for the good sense you all have thrown my way. I guess I am struggling with managing the glide path. I feel like I really don't get to rebalance (sell high and buy low), because my new money and balancing is going towards managing the glide path rather than because valuations are going outsid...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market out of Sync
Replies: 25
Views: 2280

Re: Is market out of Sync

It seems to me like the market is just overvalued. I can't figure what has changed so much from the beginning of the year until now to cause the bull market we're seeing. What are your thoughts? Look around (the world). Where else are you going to put your money and get any kind of return? That mig...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9145

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

One question that follows, though, has never been answered to me satisfactorily: How can the stock market grow faster than the overall economy? The stock market is currently at about $25 trillion. The national wealth at about $85 trillion. If the stock market continues to grow faster than the overa...
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9145

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

coachz wrote:

With all these robots and technologies why is production low ?


Pokemon Go.
by Tigermoose
Fri Jul 29, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can markets keep going up ?
Replies: 131
Views: 9145

Re: How can markets keep going up ?

We might be good savers, but we're awful economists. It's all about productivity growth, or more generally efficient use of all inputs, including labor, material, energy, and time. Economic growth is not a zero sum game. It's not based on losers, or population growth, or 401k investments. Those com...
by Tigermoose
Tue Jul 26, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Re: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan

It's not the complexity that is difficult, but the temptation to follow one's judgment in regards to current valuations.
by Tigermoose
Tue Jul 26, 2016 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1323

Boglehead temptations: not following AA plan

I find one of the biggest temptations in Boglehead investing is putting new money into asset classes that I perceive are "low" priced in comparison to other asset classes that are "high" and appropriate per my AA plan and glide path. For example: my AA and glide path is calling f...
by Tigermoose
Tue Jul 26, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: inheriting both an IRA and a non-IRA investment account
Replies: 5
Views: 419

Re: inheriting both an IRA and a non-IRA investment account

First you have to register for a Tax ID for the trust. You have to do that before setting up the inherited IRA account. IRA 1. Setup the inherited IRA account - Your brokerage will setup the Inherited IRA after you have filled out the appropriate form. 2. Sell all assets (move to cash) 3. Setup cash...

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