Search found 747 matches

by Thesaints
Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

So, how do you define investable capital which is not invested ? And what do you suggest we do with it, ignore it or what ? I find more useful to help make sure a question is well understood, rather than suggesting an answer no matter what. If one doesn't have his own question absolutely clear, chan...
by Thesaints
Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Philosophy major and future law student
Replies: 93
Views: 5114

Re: Philosophy major and future law student

Which part would be unwise: philosophy, or law school ?
by Thesaints
Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Intitial investment advice for 58 couple with approx 175k cash IRA
Replies: 23
Views: 1637

Re: Intitial investment advice for 58 couple with approx 175k cash IRA

Am I correct reading that, between you and wife, you guys have about 400k sitting in cash ?

btw, there is no "22% tax bracket"
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

No one said you can't spend your capital. Do you reject the assumption that "One's AA applies to one's investments?" Do you deny a distinction between capital and investment assets? Before we make competing claims about these things let's agree on the terminology so we are at least talking about th...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)
Replies: 8
Views: 895

Re: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)

Yes, but if I click on the "master directory" link it takes me to the registration page.
If not posting it, at least explain what it is ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)
Replies: 8
Views: 895

Re: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)

Accessing the "master directory" requires M* registration. Couldn't someone post it here, please ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

I agree with nedsaid's logic: Premise : (quoting nedsaid): The big reason for an emergency fund is so that you don't have to liquidate investments in an emergency. Assumption : One's AA applies to one's investments. Analysis : If your EF (as cash or otherwise) is part of your AA (i.e. part of your ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much income and down payment to afford 300k house?
Replies: 50
Views: 4253

Re: How much income and down payment to afford 300k house?

Research conforming mortgage rates and see how much it would be to service a 300k for the time term you desire. That's a good starting point. Then you can further refine by adding cost of mortgage insurance, property taxes, homeowner insurance, and such. Finally, you can play with different downpaym...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32744

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

"The American stockmarket’s index weight is also more than double the country’s share of global GDP. The gap has widened since the start of the millennium, because America’s share of world GDP has been on a downward trend. " https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21720134-japan-domina...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)
Replies: 8
Views: 895

Re: "Estate Planning Checklist" (for all of us)

Was there going to be a link ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 'Account Overview' Vs. 'Balance and Holdings'
Replies: 8
Views: 697

Re: 'Account Overview' Vs. 'Balance and Holdings'

A purchase of what ? If it is vanguard funds I have not seen this happening.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How does this work? [Dow Jones up, but Vanguard Total Stock down]
Replies: 10
Views: 1443

Re: How does this work?

bjames310 wrote:The Dow Jones is at record highs with three straight days of gain, yet VTSAX has been down three days in a row. I'm confused.
The "dow jones" is composed of 30 equally weighted companies. The TSA is made of ~5000, capitalization weighted.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1113

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

When I say *major* Bay Area tech companies, there are 6 that I'm thinking of. Of those, I'd consider 3 of them to be 'transparent and open' meaning that rank and file employees know things that the public doesn't know (and for at least one of those companies, every employee, regardless of rank, is ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker and Short Selling
Replies: 13
Views: 784

Re: Broker and Short Selling

Positions in the book cannot be borrowed. I don't know for a fact; I've just been told. It does make so e sense, as the same shares would appear twice, on opposite sides. That would be rather odd but even if it happened I don't see the problem. Alan has 100 shares of X, lends them to Bill who short...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Commodities and other non stock diversifiers
Replies: 3
Views: 336

Re: Commodities and other non stock diversifiers

Commodities won't do much for you, other than eventually track inflation on a very long term time scale and with caveats. TIPS + stocks is a certainly superior combination. I'm not so negative on REIT, but they were not created to be a diversifier, and they do not diversify any differently than any ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TSA Pre-check for free
Replies: 75
Views: 5726

Re: TSA Pre-check for free

As a Delta higher-level elite I got it without exception for a few years, until March. Haven't got it once since. This P me O to no end. TSA has consistently considered me a low risk for security and suddenly they want $100 for continuing to do so ? It makes no sense! First of all, the $100 fee does...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

How would you count it, before you draw from it ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

Try to express returns as a function of prices, dividends, P/E and earnings growth. One doesn't have to research and backtest, it is just math.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker and Short Selling
Replies: 13
Views: 784

Re: Broker and Short Selling

Positions in the book cannot be borrowed. I don't know for a fact; I've just been told. It does make so e sense, as the same shares would appear twice, on opposite sides.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: BMW Z3 or Z4 or nothing at all?
Replies: 79
Views: 5257

Re: BMW Z3 or Z4 or nothing at all?

Whereas the Z3 will go into history as an iconic car, such as the Alfa Spider or the 300SL, those Nissans are ugly as sin.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

If you take earnings growth into account and somehow come to an equivalent P/E figure (where now E includes future growth), I'm certainly with you. If you are saying that investing when the ordinary ttm, or projected, P/E is lower nets better returns than investing when it is higher, then I think it...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

Personally, I do not include emergency funds in asset allocation. The big reason for an emergency fund is so that you don't have to liquidate investments in an emergency. How are the two things related ? I view investments as longer term instruments, particularly stocks. They need time and patience...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury ends myRA program
Replies: 32
Views: 3603

Re: Treasury ends myRA program

myRA was intended as a vehicle for those at the extreme (low) end of the spectrum as investable funds are concerned.
Not surprisingly participation was extremely low.
A(nother) bad solution to a(nother) real problem ( 8-) )
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broker and Short Selling
Replies: 13
Views: 784

Re: Broker and Short Selling

Enter a limit sell order set to a very high price and your securities won't be borrowed, nor sold.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

I would just observe that higher P/E is equivalent to lower E/P, which should (?!) lead to lower expected returns. That's only true for bonds, where the 'E' is fixed. Higher P/E in stocks is a symptom that earnings are expected to increase. Bond yield is indeed an excellent model for expected retur...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

nedsaid wrote:Personally, I do not include emergency funds in asset allocation. The big reason for an emergency fund is so that you don't have to liquidate investments in an emergency.
How are the two things related ?
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1113

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I'd like to echo 3spots comment, and elaborate a bit. Is the company transparent and open with its employees or is it opaque and secretive? Both types are represented among the major Bay Area tech companies. I've only worked at one of the transparent and open companies. The transparency and opennes...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should emergency funds be included in AA?
Replies: 45
Views: 2731

Re: Should emergency funds be included in AA?

There isn't really a good reason for excluding them. Hopefully, including or excluding won't matter eventually.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 213
Views: 37476

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

in_reality wrote: What's best. I don't know. Bogle doesn't know. The Market doesn't know. Time will tell.
That's the theoretical foundation of index investing...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1113

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

I suspect this thread will turn out to be interesting material for behavioral economists...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury ends myRA program
Replies: 32
Views: 3603

Re: Treasury ends myRA program

Today, the US treasury department ended the myRA program. Apparently, the program cost $70 million to set up and would have cost $10 million per year going forward. It had only attracted $34 million in deposits so far, so they axed it. It was a strange program, only allowed a balance of $15k before...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32744

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Reading the Late 80s Japanese investors mind: “I believe the Japan is the best place to invest, we probably have the most technology oriented economy in the world. I would bet that the Japan will do better than the rest of the world. It is a simple bet on which economy is going to be the strongest ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?
Replies: 27
Views: 1113

Re: Awarded stock; sell and diversify?

You may also consider selling to buy stocks of a competing company, or of the sector which likely is negatively correlated.
In a way you would be including your job in to your asset allocation and try to minimize risk.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6275

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

It is a little more complicated than that: The positions to compare are 100 long stocks + 5 put. Receives dividends on 100. 105 long stocks. Receives dividends on 105 5 call + 100 cash. Does not receive dividends, but risk-free rate on 100. This assumes ATM call and put cost the same, which is true ...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

In recent years investors have simply chased yield. Bonds do not iffer them, therefore they have spilled over to stocks..
That's the reason why we are going to see higher correlation between stocks and bonds: they share a common price driver; central banks monetary policies.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

I would just observe that higher P/E is equivalent to lower E/P, which should (?!) lead to lower expected returns. That's only true for bonds, where the 'E' is fixed. Higher P/E in stocks is a symptom that earnings are expected to increase. Bond yield is indeed an excellent model for expected retur...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6275

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

Long stocks + put also gets the dividends.
If on the other hand you are considering a long call, then it is a way less capital intensive position and you should add the risk free rate to the unused capital.

The way I see it, the hedged position at worst does as well as the unhedged one, minus $5.
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8281

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I asked Bill Sharpe about the issue Saints has raised (above) regarding the differences between a given investor/retiree and the "average global investor" (presumably including large institutional investors) and he considers it an important point, and that it may well justify some tilt away from ma...
by Thesaints
Fri Jul 28, 2017 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

siamond wrote: I would just observe that higher P/E is equivalent to lower E/P, which should (?!) lead to lower expected returns.
That's only true for bonds, where the 'E' is fixed. Higher P/E in stocks is a symptom that earnings are expected to increase.
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Education and Mansplaining
Replies: 128
Views: 8270

Re: Investing Education and Mansplaining

wrongfunds wrote: It seems to be extension of the old adage where in a man dominated field women (or a black man in traditionally white man's career) have be at least twice good if she has to succeed.
This adage must date back to times before AA...
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6275

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

I'm uncertain on your results.
Let's take the maximum, i.e. the best 12-month period, which you say it is $228.61 for simple stocks and $212.94 for stocks + put. Since the put costs $5 (and obviously expired worthless) how can the two figures not be exactly $5 apart ?
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!
Replies: 52
Views: 5409

Re: U.S. Stock Market — My, How You’ve Changed!

Another aspect to take into consideration is market participation. Until 1980 retirement came mostly in the form of pensions and has since shifted to DCP accounts invested mainly in stocks.
In a way, it is a form of inflation with more money looking to buy the market (which has expanded as well)
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 8281

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

I asked Bill Sharpe about the issue Saints has raised (above) regarding the differences between a given investor/retiree and the "average global investor" (presumably including large institutional investors) and he considers it an important point, and that it may well justify some tilt away from ma...
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32744

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

chw wrote:... I agree with Jack and Taylor.
Why ?
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee
Replies: 64
Views: 6275

Re: 5% fee per year to buy s&p500 with principle gaurantee

I've exchanged PM's with the OP and he had in mind a long call. In my first replies I referred to a put hedge (substantially identical position), since I assumed he already owned the underlying stock portfolio. There are no annuities nor exotic securities involved. A side note: the VIX is not actual...
by Thesaints
Thu Jul 27, 2017 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32744

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Wasn't there advice on this forum at one point which boiled down to "Bogle recommends a max of 20% international, Vanguard recommends a minimum of 20% International, therefore you should go with 20%"? My mum likes tea in the morning, my dad coffee. Therefore I drink a mix of tea and coffee... Alter...
by Thesaints
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GF Picking a college major
Replies: 105
Views: 5486

Re: GF Picking a college major

Why does she want to go to college ? Bottom line is she really doesn't have much motivation to be there. She had high hopes at first about becoming a doctor so that was the original reason. Now, she really doesn't have a clear goal/reason for being there other than her parents want her to go. This ...
by Thesaints
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Dollar Cost Averaging Help
Replies: 37
Views: 2108

Re: Dollar Cost Averaging Help

Probably depending on the fact that in personal finance returns are not ergodic... And now we run into the red herring! Two points! Sorry, I don't know much about fishing. At least not as much as I do about statistics and finance. It is simple algebra: sampling different prices, your cost basis can...
by Thesaints
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32744

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Initially I thought it was a case of ipse dixit, but it looks more and more like one of credo in unum deum patrem omnipotentem...
by Thesaints
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GF Picking a college major
Replies: 105
Views: 5486

Re: GF Picking a college major

Why does she want to go to college ?