Search found 1170 matches

by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 79
Views: 11371

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Also, considering the scope of both Enron+ scandals and the grotesquely fraudulent housing bubble that nearly collapsed the global economy, I find it very curious how quickly we like to point fingers at other, even more corrupt markets. Also, we too have petty or not so petty bribery in this country...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 53
Views: 3252

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

. Interesting article (extract below): “Due to the low correlation of the four strategies, we estimate a portfolio of the four would have volatility of only about 5%, similar to that of an intermediate bond portfolio, while providing an expected, forward-looking return of about 7.5%.” Thus, relativ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 79
Views: 11371

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 17, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh
Replies: 16
Views: 2134

Re: Bberg: bond bulls say they'll have the last laugh

Tyler 9000 has done some research on your stagflationary example, with a surprising finding: tbills and money market funds. This is further borne out by reviewing the data from the Simba spreadsheet. Except in the 1940s immediately after WWII, where interest rate caps were imposed, tbills have done ...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund
Replies: 35
Views: 1817

Re: Derisking my Portfolio with a Leveraged Mutual Fund

Ok, so here's a couple of options you MAY want to consider. I think you're thinking the wrong way. What you actually want to do is to leverage bonds not stocks. The stocks' volatility can be a real killer, but if you leverage bonds, well, that's got some potential. In other words, keep your 90% stoc...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Choosing muni bond funds
Replies: 52
Views: 4462

Re: Choosing muni bond funds

BMBIX has done an admirable job of building a fund that's heavily pre-refunded and that has moved away in its holdings from exposure to high-risk states. It's been doing what almost no active bond fund does, which is to sacrifice yield for a safer return. It still has more bonds than I'd like in Ill...
by Theoretical
Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1186

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Here's one that goes out to 1991 via the Portfolio Visualizer: http://bit.ly/2CiebYk

Adding TIPS via the PIMCO Real Return Fund (Class I) - 3 years older than the Vanguard Fund - gets you to Feb. 1997: http://bit.ly/2BT6NqR
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlations among different types of bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 1186

Re: Correlations among different types of bonds

Treasuries are significantly better than corporates at diversifying the risk of a stock-heavy portfolio. Doesn’t this argue for a pure treasury bond fund over and above a core bond fund at least as far as portfolio “ballast” goes? Yes, if that's what you're looking for. Though really, if you want p...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I think US interest rates could drop.
Replies: 62
Views: 6633

Re: I think US interest rates could drop.

Currency hedged, the rates are comparablein both directions. Also, the end of quantitative easing is a known unknown in that it having an effect in some way is almost guaranteed but how that effect spirals out remains to be seen.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 11953

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Small cap value tends to have higher PE's than their large cousins, but their price to sales, cash flow and book values are somewhat to a lot lower (sales especially). Also what's high in one industry is reasonable in another and there are noticeable sector differences between large and small
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186598

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

People pay way too much IMO for asset classes that they think are not correlated but actually are. The gold standard in non correlation is short-term bonds. The rest are based upon past relationships holding & folks paying up (through higher fees) to obtain access. What I find amazing is folks who ...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186598

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I have questions, which might be naive, IDK. Since QSPIX is closed to new investors, what happens if you sell? Does the buyer have to be a current owner of QSPIX, and doesn't that limit the number of potential buyers pretty drastically? Is that the point of closing the fund, to limit buyers and sel...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 28
Views: 2240

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

1) To those saying that 2008-present is not a fair test because it was a rising market, I thought the whole point of the "smile" was that the strategy performs well during both falling and rising markets. Obviously it's more exciting if it performs well during falling markets, but if that is just a...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1250
Views: 186598

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Balanced fund won't do anything positive in an inflationary environment. The test for alts is really going to boil down to weather they beat cash in an inflationary cycle.
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh
Replies: 28
Views: 2240

Re: Larry Swedroe: Time Series Momentum (aka Trend Following): A Good Time For A Refresh

Has Larry looked at the returns on the AQRIX and AQRMX funds? They're awful over the past 10 years. I can't figure out how he can recommend them or what resemblance they have to the graph in his main article. Do you mean the Managed Futures funds or the Risk parity ones? AQR uses elements of risk p...
by Theoretical
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10383

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Two decent QSPIX alternatives that don't require an advisor. Janus Henderson Diversified Alternatives - JDAIX - 1.13% at Fidelity. The T class is 1.34 and is commission free widely. Targeting a 6% volatility, so QSLIX is the better comparison. Columbia Alternative Beta Class A (CLAAX) is also 1.34% ...
by Theoretical
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio
Replies: 108
Views: 10383

Re: Larry Swedroe: 4 Horsemen Of Your Portfolio

Something I've been thinking about alts is why and when they came into existence. It was in the wake of the 1970s where one of the best performing asset classes was t-bills and both bonds and stocks got stuffed, especially long bonds. Think about what gets postulated as an Alt: - REITs - Long-only C...
by Theoretical
Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31609

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

I have 10% of my total portfolio in VXUS. The rest is all US based and includes 10% REITs. No judgments here, but I'm curious as to why so many people on here have such large or increasing holdings of international equities? For example, since inception, vanguard total stock market has done quite a...
by Theoretical
Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31609

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

RRAAYY3 wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:27 am
Why is VXUS down if Europe / Asia seemed “up” today? I don’t get it ...
Currency effects.
by Theoretical
Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 169
Views: 31609

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

About 50-35-15 US/DM/EM
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 15989

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

Hawaiishrimp wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:09 pm
I wish it drops more so I can get some more shares. Seriously.
Dangerous words...be very careful what you wish for.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?
Replies: 21
Views: 1848

Re: Are Japanese Stocks Cheap?

Japan is fine, but avoid the megacaps for the aforementioned zombiecorp problems. All of the strength for a US investor is in their small to midcaps, especially value.
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1124

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

Are you saying that the stated duration of 6.6 years by Vanguard will be increased when the bonds are no longer callable? That is really something I didn't understand. Municipal bonds typically have a period of non-callability from 7-10 years after issuance. Then the issuer has the option but not o...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266095

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If you bought a 500 fund at the S&P500 peak in 2000, and you had the intention of holding, you wouldn't start making money on it until 2013. Tell me why I should put money in now on an insane looking peak, amidst deregulation, growing income inequality, and growing interest rates... In other words,...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 4038

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

danaht wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:57 pm
If Amazon tries to buy Target - then I think the government might try to stop that. Otherwise - it probably won't be stopped for a while.
I threw up a little when I read that prediction.
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 4038

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

Revenue and growth with limited profits - what good is it to an invester? It won't always be that way. Once they eliminate their competition, they can raise prices and profits will shoot up. That's likely when government intervention will occur. I've been hearing about raising prices and big profit...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1124

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

It depends on how the bonds are secured. If it's a general obligation bond, then you have to look at both the state and locality's financial health. If it's a revenue bond, you need to look at what it's doing. Historically, transportation, school district, water/sewer, and electricity bonds have bee...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 4038

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

Amazon has pretty much colonized the entire retail sector. At some point there must be a limit. Plus it is still barely profitable after all these years. $1.9B in profit for one quarter doesn't sound to me like "barely", but I get your point. A net profit of margin of 3.1% is very low, and I think ...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1124

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

Carol, it's a function of the bonds being callable. From Morningstar: 1 to 3 Years 0.62 3 to 5 Years 1.47 5 to 7 Years 2.29 7 to 10 Years 6.39 10 to 15 Years 25.25 15 to 20 Years 23.56 20 to 30 Years 33.80 Over 30 Years 6.52 http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VNYTX®ion=usa&culture=e...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?
Replies: 66
Views: 4038

Re: Amazon Stock - Can this giant be stopped?

Government is its big risk, likely as a reaction to Amazon making an overstep. At least as much is it's general corporate hubris backfiring in some major way. Grocery is a big deal if Amazon gains a large percentage of the retail grocery biz, especially if it buys a lower grocery chain than Whole Fo...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blood in the water- buying?
Replies: 117
Views: 15989

Re: Blood in the water- buying?

I don’t have a pile of cash sitting around that isn’t invested, so there’s no real way to see these fluctuations as buying opportunities. If there is enough of a change in my holdings that I reach a point where it’s appropriate to rebalance, I could do that, maybe. For everyone who is sitting aroun...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1124

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

Plus, I'd take a look at this report of the fiscal rankings of the states. New York does not do well, especially for long-term liabilities, though it's about average in terms of pension liabilities. It's no New Jersey, but it's also no Nebraska in terms of fiscal health. https://www.mercatus.org/sys...
by Theoretical
Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond
Replies: 14
Views: 1124

Re: New York Tax Exempt Fund instead Total Bond

Honestly, a moderate amount of extra risk with a couple of nasty sticking points. The two biggest relate to increased interest rate risk and single-state credit/governance risk. One, you reduce your bond diversification by a lot, switching from a fund with treasuries, agency MBS, and corporates to a...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 29
Views: 2629

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

SCZ and VSS have one thing definitely going for them: Their holding cost is below their expense ratio. In VSS's case, the fund pays you to own it. SCZ last year had $27.6 Million in expenses and $15.8 Million in securities lending revenue, so you end up with an effective ER of .13% for its $8.7 Bill...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best International Small Cap Option
Replies: 29
Views: 2629

Re: Best International Small Cap Option

I think the best liquid option for a taxable account is the Schwab Fundamental International Small Cap FNDC at an ER of .39% or the PowerShares FTSE RAFI Developed Markets ex-U.S. Small-Mid Portfolio PDN at .49%. Both have been pretty good in taxable. Going into tax-advantaged space, I'd strongly co...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax-loss harvest partner for S&P600 Small Cap Value ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 745

Re: Tax-loss harvest partner for S&P600 Small Cap Value ETFs

Five good, but somewhat flawed options: VBR - cheaper ER, not as small or valuey, but it gets the job done. RWJ - Oppenheimer's Revenue-weighted S&P 600. It's extremely valuey and much more concentrated than IJS, but is a good option to stay in the S&P 600 universe. ER is .39% EES - WisdomTree's Ear...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1266095

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

marked dropped ~ 89% from top to bottom from 29'-32'. We came out ok. Er, not everyone "came out ok"... RM Yeah, I'm not sure I'd classify the Great Depression as "coming out ok" for pretty much anyone in the entire world, except a few. People may have done relatively better or worse, but the Great...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles
Replies: 15
Views: 1283

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Linked To Business Cycles

In the table "Cumulative Returns for 6 Factors Across Economic Stages (%)" I'm a bit surprised that the worst returns for RMW is during a recession. These companies are better equipped to survive reduced sales volume or prices. I'd expect them to be much less likely to have negative earnings. I've ...
by Theoretical
Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists
Replies: 27
Views: 3040

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists

Here's how good from a factor standpoint the S&P 600 is (the relevant time is 1/1/2006, when they changed to a multi valuation structure and a different set of factors on the growth side. The Value Index is basically a slightly less tilted first cousin of the much more robust (in theory) DFA fund. F...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Bond Funds No Better
Replies: 6
Views: 1130

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Bond Funds No Better

The former, probably not, mostly because it has lower turnover and owns many more bonds than the relevant corporate index. The core bond fund is deliberately trying to beat its index.
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists
Replies: 27
Views: 3040

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists

Re: the Russells Oddly enough, the key to fixing Russell indexs is to de-cap-weight them. The Pure Value indexes, the Russell Fundamental Large and Small and the various R1K factor indexes have actually been pretty sound and not had the negative alphas the cap weighted/front runnable ones have. The ...
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists
Replies: 27
Views: 3040

Re: Larry Swedroe: Size Premium Persists

IJS is plenty small enough for me, and it has the beneficial screen for profitability. I would avoid any Russell index like the plague. Oddly enough, the key to fixing Russell indexs is to de-cap-weight them. The Pure Value indexes, the Russell Fundamental Large and Small and the various R1K factor...
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 28, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency Fund: 125% Wellesley or 100% Limited-Term MUNIs?
Replies: 28
Views: 2876

Re: Emergency Fund: 125% Wellesley or 100% Limited-Term MUNIs?

I'd try something a lot more conservative. Part of the concern with an emergency fund is actually having liquidity and accessibility, especially since you're at max tax brackets. Wellesley may be very stable but both stocks and corporate bonds are subject to liquidity crunches, and squeezing a littl...
by Theoretical
Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12652

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

These market timing threads are becoming very prolific. Is bogleheads being hijacked by non-bogleheads? Nope, they've been on the forum as long as I can see. Boglehead investing is fundamentally honest investing, because of a focus on transparency, costs, and shared investor interests, and part of ...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 278
Views: 50266

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

Use ticker VEIEX - Vanguard EM Investor class - it goes back to 1995 or so. You were using the ETF ticker VWO.
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 24, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 278
Views: 50266

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

The OP made a great call on this thread, given the callan tables, how does one feel going forward? EM continues to be strong. I think the general consensus on EM is right. Very high risk for hopefully higher than average return. The volatility has been quite a ride which matches the expected outcom...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces article: A cash bucket in retirement? Nope
Replies: 150
Views: 11898

Re: Keep investing simple

I agree. Even if the cash is liquid in a bank account or under your mattress , it's still a form of fixed income and affects your overall duration. In high inflation periods, it seemed the article suggested cash helped avoid the worst outcomes. Wish they'd do another analysis with inflation protect...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF
Replies: 32
Views: 2252

Re: Long Term Use Of A Leveraged ETF

I've looked at Direxion's monthly leveraged index funds and the returns historically are about equivalent to 2x less the ER for at least the 7-10 year treasury Bond and s&p 500 indexes. They use swaps and are pretty transparent about what they're doing and how it functions. The biggest advantage of ...
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 39
Views: 5379

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

The PP is 25% stocks + 25% long USA T-bonds + 25% gold + 25% cash. The cash and the gold are total drags. A far better port would be 50% stocks + 50% long USA T-bonds. Better in what way, and for what purposes? Lump 25% cash and 25% LT bonds together and you have 50% intermediate treasuries. Add 25...