Search found 1244 matches

by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 79
Views: 4356

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

livesoft wrote:
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:34 am
sscritic is alive and well. We had lunch together a little while ago.
Sorry for the confusion. In his case, I meant he was no longer with us here at Bogleheads, not to imply he had died like the others.
by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:52 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?
Replies: 79
Views: 4356

Re: Bogleheads you would most like to meet and why?

Experts no longer with us:

Old Meph - insurance
sscritic - social security
LH2004 - taxes
by Tanelorn
Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scottrade pain coming...
Replies: 17
Views: 2571

Re: Scottrade pain coming...

OANIX and ODVIX are Institutional versions of the funds, probably with lower .ERs than "investor" class. Were you able to buy these since you represent an institution or have multi-million dollar balances? What is wrong with the Investor class instead? I'm wondering if it was a fluke when you bough...
by Tanelorn
Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Scottrade pain coming...
Replies: 17
Views: 2571

Re: Scottrade pain coming...

You might contact your Scottrade branch with your concerns and inquire if they will grandfather your mutual fund commissions or something similar. They do want to keep their customers, and things like that are negotiable. If you are looking to leave, you might check Etrade - they have relatively low...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 208
Views: 23322

Re: What is Bitcoin?

This was a good blog post on the high level aspects of bitcoin.

https://valueandopportunity.com/2017/09 ... ke-myself/
by Tanelorn
Sun Sep 17, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: US removing Kaspersky Antivirus from government computers
Replies: 38
Views: 3416

Re: US removing Kaspersky Antivirus from government computers

Just to try to be clear-headed about this, considerations that might disqualify a foreign-made product from being used on government computers might not disqualify it from being used on my personal computer. It might be appropriate for the U.S. government to ban a foreign-made software product out ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3904

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

Since commodities are generally consumed, perhaps the strongest analogy is to precious metals, and in particular gold, whose main uses are decorative. Gold is not consumed, it just remains as a stockpile somewhere, in some form. Thinking about BitCoin has a high volatility version of gold is probab...
by Tanelorn
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9733

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Here's a good FT article on many aspects of BitCoin, ICOs, and how some venture capitalists think investing in these new tokens could be a way to get on board for the next big internet platform ala Facebook such as open source distributed storage. http://archive.is/LwxgZ https://www.ft.com/content/2...
by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9733

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:14 am
The more I read about "coin" the more I realize I will never truly understand them. Never invest in something one does not understand.
You've more than made your point. Since you admittedly don't understand BitCoin, maybe you can stop distracting those who are trying to learn.
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3904

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

As for the role in a bogleheads' portfolio, I think the 2 most important points about bitcoin are: 1. It's not an investment as it doesn't produce any value. For the average investor, real return after expenses will be negative. I think this is a poor argument and I dislike it as applied to other i...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wiki article - Bitcoin
Replies: 37
Views: 3904

Re: Wiki article - Bitcoin

In reference to the above, I wasn't saying I was any more authoritative than the Forbes author, as I am certainly not an expert on BC, just giving my reasons for how I thought about the asset class / allocation question. In terms of constructive suggestions for the Wiki, I would suggest changing the...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 11, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9733

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Caution, Bitcoin should not be considered as cash. See the wiki: Bitcoin (Role in a portfolio) Well, the Wiki is just quoting Peter Tchir's Forbes article and he doesn't justify much of what he says except to argue BCs are more volatile that many currencies. Sure he's entitled to his opinion, but I...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 11, 2017 6:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 165
Views: 9733

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

Swelfie - thank you for your very detailed replies. I'll try to address some of the various comments earlier in this thread: More broadly, in a portfolio context, I think BitCoin should be viewed as either cash or gold. I know someone who argues for keeping 10% of their "cash" allocation in crypto c...
by Tanelorn
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I need an Amazon Echo??.....
Replies: 68
Views: 4687

Re: Do I need an Amazon Echo??.....

Teague wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:20 pm
I asked my really smart neighbor who works for the NSA. He seems to think everybody should have one.
Obligatory XKCD

https://xkcd.com/1807/
by Tanelorn
Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:40 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?
Replies: 255
Views: 16233

Re: [Are the Bogleheads] getting less interesting?

I broadly agree with OP, and attribute that mostly to becoming more knowledgeable myself so fewer financial topics are still of interest. It's possible censorship, self or otherwise, has contributed but I have not be watching closely enough to judge that, but it would be my second guess as an explan...
by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Thanks. Looks like I could have waited a day, but 45% seemed like a good 8 month return. :) I updated the spreadsheet to reflect your sale. Yeah, ILMN continued to move about 1% higher, but it's nice to lock in gains too and not worry about the risks sometimes. current standings - 2017 hedge fund c...
by Tanelorn
Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

goblue100 wrote:
Thu Aug 31, 2017 2:18 pm
I'd like to close my position in ILMN.
Congrats on your Illumina pick, up 45%! I'll update the spreadsheet later this weekend to reflect yesterday's close as you requested, $204.46.
by Tanelorn
Sun Aug 27, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 113
Views: 8060

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

They will need to find buyers for that debt before index funds would care about them and if they are truly troubled buyers will require higher yields and thus lower prices - meaning lower capitalization. Higher yields at issuance in the bond market do not necessarily lead to lower prices, that's on...
by Tanelorn
Sun Aug 27, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?
Replies: 113
Views: 8060

Re: Do Index Funds Distort Market Valuations?

jbolden makes a number of interesting points, although I will need to think harder about them to decide where I stand on them. They definitely seem at first read to be a theoretical vulnerability of current indexing approaches. In a market cap weighted bond market for example, the most troubled comp...
by Tanelorn
Fri Aug 25, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Liquidate my long position in SDRL please NeXtGen Partners Done at today's close, $0.70. It's hard to take an 80% loss, but FWIW I think you probably made the right choice. It's looking more and more like a bankruptcy or restructuring is in the cards for them, and the equity holders will be lucky t...
by Tanelorn
Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

With Tanelorn and GoldenFinch holding steady in first and second respectively, there is still a close contest for the next couple places. Jdb's big tech themed fund (Google, Amazon, Tesla) currently barely edging out McGilicutty with about 28% each in 3rd/4th. SnottyPie and inbox788 are similarly cl...
by Tanelorn
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8597

Re: ObamaCare 2018

So where do people get health insurance if their job doesn't offer it and there is essentially no network in their state through ACA? Are people still able to apply directly to the providers or is it a requirement to use the ACA market if one needs insurance? The plans in my state aren't that diffe...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8597

Re: ObamaCare 2018

My state has about 5 providers, who together offer about 60 plans. When I started looking at the networks, I was appalled. There is a major university hospital system 3 miles from me, and although some plans included certain doctors in that system, the only hospital in some plans was a rural region...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8597

Re: ObamaCare 2018

It's going to be a race to the bottom in most states this year. Which company can provide the worst network at a price that people still find halfway reasonable? Maybe the adverse selection effects of the guaranteed issuance are turning out to be bad enough that they don't want to have a reasonable...
by Tanelorn
Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: ObamaCare 2018
Replies: 74
Views: 8597

Re: ObamaCare 2018

Eyeballing the first table, it looks like 2018 premiums are about 10-20% higher than 2017.
by Tanelorn
Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Redfin
Replies: 17
Views: 1920

Re: Redfin

I own a little (and I do mean little), and I wish them the best of luck. Real estate brokers are still in the Stone Age in terms of their high fees, and have many anticompetitive methods to try to keep that. Can you imagine stock brokers cutting deals with individual companies saying that only full ...
by Tanelorn
Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real P/E of ETF's and Mutual Funds - are the published ones misleading
Replies: 26
Views: 1516

Re: Real P/E of ETF's and Mutual Funds - are the published ones misleading

This P/E trickery is much worse in the Nasdaq where many stocks have negative earnings. See below on "how to turn a PE of 90 into 22 in three easy steps", using QQQ as an example. There are real companies with 200x and -100x PE ratios, so this is not an academic exercise, but these basically get ign...
by Tanelorn
Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Move Roth Principle To Traditional Solo 401k
Replies: 3
Views: 275

Re: Move Roth Principle To Traditional Solo 401k

Obviously you can't do a direct transfer from Roth to Traditional (only sometimes recharacterize one you later regret). If you were closing in on retirement and still working at a higher-than-future-expected tax rate, it could make sense to "live off" your Roth principle capital while contributing m...
by Tanelorn
Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

I heard from HurdyGurdy and per his request have closed out his short RIA position as of the merger discussed above - see the spreadsheet for details. In other news for those short unusual situations, the WINS drama continues with the majority owner of the company successfully selling his 2/3 stake ...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

"Make those yachts great again" Long: TWTR, TACO, HLT Short: BBBY, RAI HurdyGurdy - Reynolds American (RAI) was taken over this week in a cash and stock deal by British American Tobacco (BPI). Here were the details: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reynolds-american-apos-acquisition-bat-143602862.htm...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Risk Question - Interactive Brokers
Replies: 20
Views: 2279

Re: Investment Risk Question - Interactive Brokers

Additionally, IB has 3 billion excess capital compared to capital required by regulations. Any loss will be first absorbed by this capital cushion. IB CEO recently said his goal is to increase firm capital to 10 billion or so rather than increasing company's dividends. Obviously there is risk inher...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1690

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

As the Nobel Prize winners at LTCM found out. Even if your theory is right, if you use leverage, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Limit you leverage and keep plenty of reserves. Nerves of steel won't prevent margin calls when the market moves against you. You also h...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jul 23, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I lend securities (IB)
Replies: 25
Views: 6640

Re: Should I lend securities (IB)

Thank you very much. I was looking for some experience at how efficient IB is at getting back shares before dividends. If they are only 60% efficient (40% of the time you get PIL) then it's definitely not worth it if you hold any qualified dividend stocks in your portfolio. IB could get around some...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 22, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

I know many of you have had your ups and downs in the market and I wanted to give you a way to visualize that. After some tweaking, the spreadsheet now includes a link to the performance of each fund's basket of stocks and their YTD performance compared to the S&P. If you click on the name of the fu...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 22, 2017 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Middle Branch Multiflora Rose Capital Thorn Fund The market goes up, the market goes down, but Rosa Multiflora grows on. Trust The Bramble® LONG UTX - United Technologies Corp JEC - Jacobs Engineering Corp GD - General Dynamics SHORT RHT - Red Hat Software SCAI - Surgical Care Affiliates As a belat...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 22, 2017 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Tanelorn, please sell my position in SRPT as of closing price today 7/20. Commonwealth of Buckaroo Dough Holdings has bounced in and out of the top ten and wants to stay there this time. I'm risking that it might tank by the end of the day, but this is a very risky hedge fund causing share holders ...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 22, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1690

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

It compares various leveraged and unleveraged portfolios of the stock market index over a 100+ years of historical data. In particular, more leverage is not always better even when you know the market has / will go up. 4x leverage goes bust in the 1929 crash, but 3x leverage does worse than 2x lever...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Complex (profitable?) Roth Conversion Strategy
Replies: 23
Views: 1866

Re: Complex (profitable?) Roth Conversion Strategy

Thanks for putting together some interesting ideas.
by Tanelorn
Wed Jul 19, 2017 6:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Based on the Chipotle news and for Sears' inability to correctly fail as a business, I hereby exercise my right to limit redemptions from my investors. I shall release you on January 1st, should you still with to sell. I agree. Gates and lockups are an important way to protect investors from their ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jul 16, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

A quick shout out to stickman731 and his Sticky Wonder Fund. This week, he broke into the top ranks at 4th place and a current annual performance of 25%. That 25% average however belies considerable underlying variance among his portfolio of 3 long and 2 short picks. In fact, he is only up on 2 of h...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 hedge fund contest
Replies: 218
Views: 26532

Re: 2017 hedge fund contest

Billionaire Yacht Fund Ticker MYG My Yacht Guaranteed Long: SUPN, IPXL, BREW Short: SHLD, WINS, ARIA A quick note that ARIA has been bought out in a merger for $24 in cash. https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2017/Takeda-Completes-Acquisition-of-ARIAD-Pharmaceuticals-Inc/ The price had err...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 6115

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

Thesaints wrote:ETF's do not distribute capital gains.
Incorrect.

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=268269
Particularly standing out was Rydex Inverse 2x S&P Select Sector Energy (REC), which paid out a short-term capital gains distribution equal to about 74% of the fund's NAV.
by Tanelorn
Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole
Replies: 74
Views: 6115

Re: ETF - open secret - cap gains tax loophole

(2) The article discusses the uses of ETFs for executing tax fraud/evasion (using S&P500 index funds from different providers while relying on the IRS being asleep and never noticing and arguing that these are substantially identical securities)... did I miss a PLR from the IRS or is this your tax ...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?
Replies: 39
Views: 3020

Re: Excel 2010 and Windows 7 -- Where to go from here?

Run a VM for the old Windows and Excel. You can disable internet inside the VM, which should address most of the security issues.
by Tanelorn
Thu Jul 06, 2017 4:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good Reads
Replies: 6
Views: 706

Re: Good Reads

Here's the 6th very long thread about what people are currently reading and recommending.

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=147398
by Tanelorn
Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your health insurance stats?
Replies: 89
Views: 5624

Re: What are your health insurance stats?

I don't think the HMO restriction is a big deal prior to age 65... There is this thing called " open enrollment " once a year where you can switch to a PPO with OON access so you don't get stuck with crummy HMO specialty doctors. You say that like there are PPO options available in your area. There...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preferred Stock
Replies: 35
Views: 2159

Re: Preferred Stock

I have a statement dated 10/31/16 and the YTD gross dividends were $312.90 on 42 shares. According to my layman's calculations that looks like about 2.26% (as stated earlier) on $330/share. Would that be correct? Their semiannual dividend has been increasing, but it's around $7.70/share/year. For t...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preferred Stock
Replies: 35
Views: 2159

Re: Preferred Stock

I don't know what the US listed bank sector is trading at, Price to Book, but an offer around Book Value should be entertained. In your shoes I would snap their hands off if they offered a premium to book or even book value. Agreed. Complication: 2 classes of shares. I am assuming the stock price i...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jul 04, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Preferred Stock
Replies: 35
Views: 2159

Re: Preferred Stock

Otherwise it is unfortunately a fairly illiquid security as above poster mentioned. By illiquid do you mean no broker would sell it or do you mean they would list it and just wait for a buyer? I don't know how likely it is someone at the bank will offer a good price, but they might offer an accepta...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: High Income, High Debt, Low Life Expectancy
Replies: 21
Views: 4728

Re: High Income, High Debt, Low Life Expectancy

I would pay no more than the minimum on your student debt in light of your health situation. Paying down your mortgage seems like a reasonable savings goal in place of your loan debt, or you could invest in additional index funds. For your index funds, I agree that some more intermediate stock alloc...