Search found 1385 matches

by Tanelorn
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments
Replies: 7
Views: 427

Re: Pledged Asset Line (PAL)/Line of Credit for Real Estate Investments

Another pitch for using IB for margin if you're looking for this. The Schwab PAL rates are probably 1% higher at similar balances, why would you pay that? Plus their PAl accounts are much more limited than an IB account in terms of what assets you can hold, how much you can hold of one position (som...
by Tanelorn
Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2042

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

Inflation is good for debtors and bad for creditors. This is obvious, yet often not pointed out.... All economic policies have winners and losers. As a retiree, I am currently a creditor. Inflation is bad, bad, bad. For me. Exactly. And as is even more rarely pointed out, deflation would be good, g...
by Tanelorn
Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures
Replies: 20
Views: 1807

Re: Blockchain Technology Companies and Funds/ETFs/Futures

You could always invest in the Crypto Co (ticker CRCW). It has an 11 billion market cap and about $500k of quarterly revenue. You’ll have to wait until January 3rd though because the SEC halted it for trading. Personally, I’m trying to find a way to short it. You've got the right intuition, but I'l...
by Tanelorn
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Random conversations regarding money
Replies: 44
Views: 4540

Re: Random conversations regarding money

You missed some good opportunities, like asking whether he thought there was any real good behind "paper gold" investments like GLD, if JPM was manipulating precious metal prices and whether they were hoarding supplies more or less than usual lately, etc.
by Tanelorn
Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

With all the volatility in the market, I thought it would be a good time to take stock of where our esteemed crew of hedge fund managers stood in comparison to the overall market. Real hedge funds often underperform, but claim that they would perform better (or less worse anyway) than the broad mark...
by Tanelorn
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Motif Investing, 2018 change in fees
Replies: 16
Views: 1045

Re: Motif Investing, 2018 change in fees

Thanks for the note and the update in their fees. It seems like making and trading your own Motif is the way to go now, but with $20 trades for the basket that's not as compelling as it was at half that. $5 for individual stock trades is reasonable.
by Tanelorn
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?
Replies: 20
Views: 3333

Re: Has Seeking Alpha Become Worthless?

They have been trying to monetize the site more, and their efforts have made it "worth less" in any event, if not worthless. While certainly most articles aren't very good, there are a some good ones but they keep trying to lock them away and get you to pay for them, which is something I really don'...
by Tanelorn
Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Day trading for a living/career?
Replies: 95
Views: 6527

Re: Day trading for a living/career?

Right. I'm with you on the steamroller analogy. When trying to beat the market, people inevitably come up with strategies that have some non-zero chance of losing all of your money in a single day. The most enticing ones are the ones that seem to give either consistent returns and/or consistently a...
by Tanelorn
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?
Replies: 15
Views: 1511

Re: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?

ETP is an initialism I learned recently. It stands for Exchange Traded Product. XIV and VXX and GLD are not exchange traded funds (ETFs) but exchange traded notes (ETNs) That's important because ETFs, exchange traded funds , are a kind of "investment company," as are mutual funds, and regulated by ...
by Tanelorn
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?
Replies: 15
Views: 1511

Re: Inverse VIX Cause of Further Selling?

The VIX ETP space is only a few $B (and of course some are long and some are short, so the net is less). Cramer had the causality backwards. The VIX stuff blew up because the market sold off, not v. versa. VIX products own VIX futures. Futures are a zero sum market, so just because recently volatili...
by Tanelorn
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5162

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

This is a better, clearer article. That SeekingAlpha one was mediocre.

http://kiddynamitesworld.com/xiv-volpoc ... ignorance/
by Tanelorn
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5162

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

What kind of chart is this? And, where were all those the market makers and specialists who are supposed to i ensure orderly trading? Don't they exist for ETFs? They do exist but the ETN sponsor halted the stock for pending news from 4am until they finally decided to admit they were closing it soon...
by Tanelorn
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Everything Is Awesome Hedge Fund Long: XIV YINN TQQQ Short: None! I had mentioned earlier that desafinado's bullish ETF and ETN portfolio didn't qualify since this was a stock picking contest (ETFs and ETNs aren't included in the Russell index we use as our universe). However, since he seems to hav...
by Tanelorn
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5162

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

Credit Suisse "terminates" XIV...I notice SVXY and ZIV aren't trading today either, so I wonder what will happen with those. As far as I know, SVXY, being an ETF, doesn't have a termination clause in the prospectus. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-06/credit-suisse-terminates-xiv Proshares pu...
by Tanelorn
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours
Replies: 42
Views: 5162

Re: Inverse VIX ETN down 80% after hours

It looked like front month VIX futures had spiked to about double, but I'm not sure when the funds or their index rebalances. They also use some second month VIX futures, which presumably were somewhat more muted. Some articles: https://www.barrons.com/articles/short-vol-trades-the-risk-we-warned-yo...
by Tanelorn
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Better long Sears than XIV or SVZY, some inverse VIX products that seem to have lost 90-100% of their value today. Stocks go up and stocks go down, but to really screw things up requires Financial Engineering. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/05/xiv-exchange-traded-security-linked-to-volatility-plummets...
by Tanelorn
Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Well there was some volatility in the markets this past week (first significant drops in the major indexes in many months), so let's check in on how our fund managers are handling it. On the upside: The top three have switched spots but are all the same crew. Currently whodidntante and his Bet Again...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jan 30, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Neighbor recently burglarized- Suggestions for home security
Replies: 83
Views: 6557

Re: Neighbor recently burgalerized - Suggestions for home security

Big dog seems like a good deterrent according to a bunch of convicted burglars who were interviewed. Loud alarm systems would send them packing. Mostly they were looking for signs that no one was home. http://www.kgw.com/article/news/investigations/we-asked-86-burglars-how-they-broke-into-homes/3442...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 29, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

You can check on your state's (lack of) pension funding on this WSJ table. The worst offenders are, in order, IL, KY, CT, AK, KS. https://graphics.wsj.com/table/Connecticut_102015 That table was from 2015. Here's one that includes 2015 and 2016 and the change (nearly all are getting more underfunde...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

Here's a reminder from one of the great but no longer contributing members, Larry Swedroe. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=199789 The following are the states we won't buy bonds from... (My apologies, the person on our trading desk provided an incorrect list. So here's the correct o...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

IL wants to issue over $100B in pension bonds so they "lever up" their investments in the markets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-26/illinois-ponders-pension-fund-moonshot-a-107-billion-bond-sale Are your state officials gambling your pension on margin in the stock markets? If you'r...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Here are the updated standings are we finish up our first month in the contest. Current Standings - 2018 hedge fund contest On the upside: goblue100 continues to hold first place with his Two Minute Portfolio, up 32%. He has been notching up additional gains recently as his single bet against the re...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

I think municipal bond funds are probably actually a lot safer than one would actually think. Federal and state Income tax compliance rates in the U.S. are probably the most highest in the world. If a U.S. citizen does not pay their income taxes, federal and state governments will know about it and...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

Don’t the rating take the funding issues and problems into account? If you stick with investment grade I think it should be ok. Sure, they'll downgrade them as soon as the price has already crashed and it's too late. Perhaps you'd like some nice safe AAA MBSs or CDOs? They did just fine in 2007-200...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 28, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's
Replies: 47
Views: 4814

Re: "Muni Bonds Time Bomb" Barron's

You can check on your state's (lack of) pension funding on this WSJ table. The worst offenders are, in order, IL, KY, CT, AK, KS. https://graphics.wsj.com/table/Connecticut_102015 I would avoid owning any muni's from these states unless you are going to read all the fine print about the priorities o...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program
Replies: 13
Views: 1071

Re: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program

You guys are likely thinking about the guarantee wrong. Usually the way these pension plans guarantee returns is by taking the difference from someone else, i.e. The company profits or the public taxpayer, not by being good at investing. The SEC is all over people for promising guaranteed returns fr...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program
Replies: 13
Views: 1071

Re: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program

I also might look into diversifying some of those assets. It's worth knowing more about the structure of the investment, what credit risks are involved, etc, but if it's half as good as it sounds, I don't know why you would recommend selling out of it. In the limit of low volatility, it's almost an...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program
Replies: 13
Views: 1071

Re: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program

You can do anything in Excel, but that doesn't mean you want to unless you like a challege. This is all qualitative stuff anyway, so I figured the following were good enough for government work so to speak. In PV, use: 8.5% average 2.5% volatility Normal distribution Fixed dollar annual withdrawal, ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson
Replies: 94
Views: 7605

Re: Lost money through Bitconnect scam - learned my lesson

"Nothing so undermines your financial judgement as the sight of your neighbour getting rich.” – John Pierpont Morgan
by Tanelorn
Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case study Broker trade executions
Replies: 214
Views: 22829

Re: Case study Broker trade executions

If you have a buy order with Fidelity, they cannot buy at a price equal or lower than your price without giving you the shares. But they can certainly sell to you, which is generally to your benefit. In your story, your limit orders at $30 would executed anyways if the stock was at $29. Could this ...
by Tanelorn
Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12676

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Congrats to all the posters. I'm not quite sure what my retirement goals are, but it feels like I'm getting pretty close. Another couple good years in the markets, and we'll see.
by Tanelorn
Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more TDA Apex?
Replies: 19
Views: 1764

Re: No more TDA Apex?

That's interesting. Maybe TDA is still keeping Apex but according to their webpage, there is no longer any free full outgoing ACAT, Apex or not: https://www.tdameritrade.com/pricing/brokerage-fees.page That page of fees is not applied to all (Apex?) accounts. I've done several things on that page a...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: No more TDA Apex?
Replies: 19
Views: 1764

Re: No more TDA Apex?

I just spoke to TDA and Apex is NOT discontinued. I think it's just they redesigned their website and it no longer shows the little word "Apex" wherever it used to. I had Apex status and called to confirm and they said I still have it, which agrees with the lack of fees I've been charged for various...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

lack_ey wrote:
Mon Jan 15, 2018 3:49 am
That's price return, not really fair given the high yield of preferreds.
Thanks, I didn't have the total return version handy. My main point was on risk and the 2008 crash, where price vs total return didn't matter much.
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account
Replies: 10
Views: 586

Re: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account

I don't understand the PDB rules well enough to comment on those, but maybe I can help with your posed problem (regardless of if it's the right one). If you're going to invest some money in stocks anyway (which you pretty much have to if you're targeting a 6% average return; no investment grade fixe...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?
Replies: 13
Views: 957

Re: Do Preferred securities let you sleep well at night?

It depends what you want, but preferred stocks crashed just like equities in 2008, as measured by PFF, the main preferred etf. Plus since then, the broad equity market has outperformed preferred stocks by a huge margin. All the risk of equities in a crash, none of the upside in a bull market? http:/...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Only a week into our contest and already there has been some significant moves. Current Standings - 2018 hedge fund contest On the upside: goblue100 currently has the lead with a quick 22% gain on his sole short WINS, a sketchy Chinese stock known for its high volatility and whose extended halts and...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?
Replies: 56
Views: 8043

Re: What stocks can I buy when it comes to Marijuana?

There's now an ETF for marijuana stocks - HMMJ. $30-40M In assets so far and it just launched this month, and up 8% so far. http://www.horizonsetfs.com/etf/HMMJ https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=Hmmj.to&l=on&z=m&t=5d&bypass=true It trades in Canada on Toronto's main stock exchange, but will take ...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again
Replies: 15
Views: 1942

Re: Zimbabwe stock market acting strangely again

It sounds like the long term goal of a Zimbabwe citizen should be to invest in a new citizenship. Before that, a computer and electricity are likely purchasable with local currency, and from there you can mine bitcoins or the like (inefficiently) into something that turns into USD and is not subject...
by Tanelorn
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8305

Re: Kodakcoin

alpine_boglehead wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:36 pm
It's eye-opening that the transaction costs of a purported future currency are in the ballpark of $20.
Ether is much faster and cheaper than bitcoin.
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

paper200 wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:19 pm
Bit-Illusion Gas Fund.

Motto: Bits-in-gas-out

Long: ENDO; FLXN
Short: KERX; TSLA
What company do you mean by ENDO? I don't see one with that ticker in the Russell file.
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8305

Re: Kodakcoin

One fool's opinion in the Kodakcoin, and not a particularly favorable one.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/ ... kcoin.aspx
by Tanelorn
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kodakcoin
Replies: 101
Views: 8305

Re: Kodakcoin

nisiprius wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:55 am
Maybe we all can actually get rich, this time.
Don't worry. This time is different.
by Tanelorn
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

The new year's contest is off with a bang! You can see the results below: Current Standings - 2018 hedge fund contest whodidtante lost no time taking a fast 8% gain with his appropriately named Bet Against Eddie fund, shorting Sears (SHLD) and named after the hedge fund manager turned retail CEO. Cl...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Thank you, doingwell, for pointing out the formula mistake. I've updated the spreadsheet to reflect Monday, Jan 8th, closing prices as the starting point for the contest. Several fund managers inadvertently included ineligible stocks, which have been removed individually from those portfolios. Commo...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When the rubber hits the road [Progressive Dementia thread with merged updates]
Replies: 106
Views: 8067

Re: The reality hits - my dementia update

Thank you for the update, and your series of posts in recent years (which I had not seen until now). I hope you will be able to continue them for a long time to come. Best wishes.
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 08, 2018 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Coverdell really killed by TJCA?
Replies: 12
Views: 1346

Re: Coverdell really killed by TJCA?

The part that was going to remove the ability to make future ESA contributions was removed in the reconciliation process for the final tax bill. Nothing changed, ESAs are still better than 529s in basically all ways except their contribution limit.
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 08, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 126
Views: 8765

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

BackOfTheNet wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:29 pm
I could put in some benchmarks for reference. What would an IDKAIDK fund look like? 1 long position of VTI?
Yes, that's the traditional benchmark, same as we used last year.
by Tanelorn
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zacks Investment Research vs Morningstar
Replies: 4
Views: 415

Re: Zacks Investment Research vs Morningstar

jhfenton wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:44 pm
[Zacks] research is worse than useless.
Agreed. This sums it up pretty well:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BagholderQuo ... 9648677888