Search found 243 matches

by TJSI
Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A favorite Peter Lynch quote.
Replies: 26
Views: 3503

Re: A favorite Peter Lynch quote.

Excellent words of wisdom from nedsaid on this 4th of July! And let us not forget the Founders of this great nation who seem to receive a lot of criticism hundreds of years after they have passed. We are blessed today by what they accomplished.
by TJSI
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

dkturner, You have raised a good point. Buybacks could be an excellent tool to damp the volatility of stock price. They could step in if prices dropped significantly below their estimate of intrinsic value. And I am sure than some companies do make a good faith estimate of intrinsic value. But there...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Lobster, Mr. Buffett has commented several times on buybacks and I believe most recently on IBM and their repurchase program. He believes IBM did the right thing. He is a very firm believer in buying stocks below intrinsic value. He has never said that buybacks are good in general. In one of letters...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Thank you Simplegift for that Credit Swiss reference. It is by far the best discussion of buybacks I have seen. They recognize the difference between holding and selling shareholders. And from their conclusion: " Buybacks only benefit continuing shareholders when management executes them when t...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Simplegift, You wrote "It seems there's a return to shareholders." There is indeed a return to shareholders but the calculation of it is difficult. One set of shareholders wins while the others lose. That is why it would be great if those who write about buybacks clearly state which stockh...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Ogd, You conveniently forget that when a company does a buyback they take from stockholders something of value. The stock surrendered does have value. And in some cases it is worth more than the cash received. The value of stock removed from stockholders needs to be netted out of any calculation of ...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 5227

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Simplegift, That buyback yield is not a yield in any conventional definition of yield. You are just adding two dissimilar percent changes to produce a number which means nothing. A yield is a return on investment. It tells you what you are gaining from your investment. When people talk of stockholde...
by TJSI
Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMDs- Is this accurate?
Replies: 9
Views: 1155

Re: RMDs- Is this accurate?

Yes, you can do a transfer to a taxable account and not sell the securities. You will pay tax on the amount transferred.

TJSI
by TJSI
Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks
Replies: 28
Views: 1090

Re: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks

When a company executes a buyback someone or some entity sells their stock. That is a taxable event. If a capital gain, the piper gets paid. For the non-participating stockholders they may see their stock go up in price or if the market things it was a mistake, they may see their stock price go down...
by TJSI
Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]
Replies: 5
Views: 884

Re: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]

Thanks. A very informative presentation--well done. I had never heard the saying "Run toward the lion." It certainly takes guts.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: D Day 72 years ago...
Replies: 48
Views: 3637

Re: D Day 72 years ago...

Valuethinker said: Not sure which Ranger group? It was 2nd Battalion under Lt Col. James Rudder. Valuethink also said: "But US troops had gotten to the top of the cliffs without their fire." --referring to US Navy destroyer. From General Bradley's A Soldier's Story : "A destroyer race...
by TJSI
Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: D Day 72 years ago...
Replies: 48
Views: 3637

Re: D Day 72 years ago...

But for the action of a US Navy Commander the invasion of Omaha Beach might have turned out different. Seeing the Rangers being killed, he broke his orders and ordered his destroyers to get as close to the beach and open fire. They were able to clear the Germans from the cliff top and the Rangers we...
by TJSI
Sun May 22, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WW2 Books & Education
Replies: 91
Views: 3516

Re: WW2 Books & Education

At some point you should read Winston Churchill's six volume "The Second World War". A magnificent writer and probably the most important person responsible for saving western civilization, his description of the events during WWII is a classic. If you are just starting out on your reading...
by TJSI
Tue May 17, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight
Replies: 92
Views: 8853

Re: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight

Got me today. I walked away from my computer for about an hour and MS had taken control. Cursed MS and cursed myself for not doing a recent back-up. Well so far no problems. At least I won't have to deal with the annoying pop-ups asking me to upgrade. Just think how life will be when the "Inter...
by TJSI
Thu May 05, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: portfolios with different standard deviations
Replies: 6
Views: 489

Re: portfolios with different standard deviations

Just to add a bit of perspective--not all investors consider volatility to be risk. This includes Graham & Dodd and Warren Buffet. Some would say that volatility allows you to buy at a good price. In the academic world, volatility and its measure standard deviation is widely used as a proxy for ...
by TJSI
Sun May 01, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Siesta Key later this month -recommendations
Replies: 16
Views: 1642

Re: Siesta Key later this month -recommendations

First Watch in downtown Sarasota serves a very good breakfast. As I recall you can get breakfast until 2 PM .
Downside--very busy on weekends. Breakfast is their thing.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

DaSid,

You are welcome to your own meaning of the word never. However, I'll stick with the normal meaning and go with Prof Shiller and his knowledge of
of stockholder value.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

DaSid,

Berkhire has not said they will never pay a dividend. In fact, Munger has said that he expects that at some point they will. When a company is in the high growth phase they should not pay a dividend.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

snaryjack,

Better yet is what Noble Prize winner and Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University Robert Shiller said:

"If a company said it would never pay a dividend, it would be worthless. It would be a private company."

TJSI
by TJSI
Fri Mar 04, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just lost 4.08% on Forever stamps.
Replies: 63
Views: 7487

Re: Just lost 4.08% on Forever stamps.

A good opportunity for TLH.
by TJSI
Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 3-4-16)
Replies: 81
Views: 7130

Re: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 2-12-16)

Jalbert,

I believe you are right about using the Gordon Model to calculate a stock market duration. The Gordon Model assumes an infinite time horizon so it problematic to use it calculate a finite time --duration.

TJSI
by TJSI
Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 293
Views: 30962

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Go Blue 99 I read Mr. Levine's NYT article this morning (How Much of Your Nest Egg To Put Into Stocks? All of it) and found it interesting but not that useful. He used Warren Buffet's allocation of stocks for his wife (90%) as part of his argument to go heavy on stocks as you get older. And I think ...
by TJSI
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 4192

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

If I were relatively wealthy ( about $10 million in assets), I would have a good chunk in gold--maybe $800K. And I would own a couple of modest condos. Since we have a Larry Portfolio, I will call this the Scarlet Portfolio ( "I'll never be hungry again"). I wouldn't expect the gold to pro...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's dumbest investment advice
Replies: 32
Views: 4175

Re: Today's dumbest investment advice

Bertilik, That statement by Investopedia is just plain wrong. Exchanges don't set prices nor can they lower them. The price is set by the bids and asks. The exchange just clears the bids and asks. Now apparently brokerage houses will lower bids by the dividend unless told otherwise. The opening pric...
by TJSI
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 179
Views: 12113

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

Mr Market is a manic depressive. ( I don't know who first said this.)

And he is off his meds today. (Added by me.)

TJSI
by TJSI
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I got let go yesterday
Replies: 45
Views: 9975

Re: I got let go yesterday

I agree with soupcxan--it is highly likely that the company failed not you. It is possible that nobody-- no matter how smart or hard working could have succeeded without the needed experience. Whoever hired you probably did not understand the requirements of the position. A lot of engineering is boo...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide Dividend Trends
Replies: 12
Views: 1428

Re: Worldwide Dividend Trends

Dirghatamas, Unfortunately, you don't want to think more deeply about the issue. Instead you answer with something about selling shares to raise cash. I did not ask about the equivalents of buyback and dividends. I just asked a simple question: Do not the stocks that companies buyback have value? An...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide Dividend Trends
Replies: 12
Views: 1428

Re: Worldwide Dividend Trends

Dirghatmas, I would like to submit a question to you. Assume that companies are doing the right thing when they do a buyback. That is they are buying back their shares at a price that is less than the intrinsic value of the stock. In that case, are the companies not taking cash from stockholders? TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Jan 25, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did the bears eat my retirement? - Sequence of Returns Risk
Replies: 70
Views: 6787

Re: Did the bears eat my retirement? - Sequence of Returns Risk

gth8857, Sequence of return risk is real and should be a concern of those at or near retirement. I think what you are doing in the short run is correct--putting excess cash into safe investments. No one can predict the trajectory of the market over the next couple of years. There have been numerous ...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars
Replies: 6
Views: 568

Re: Tracking growth - In Shares, not Dollars

Well before this is totally dismissed as a psychological problem, let me say there is a little something to it. The value of your investment at any point is equal to the number of shares times the price of the shares. And your return is a function of the growth in shares and the growth in price. Wha...
by TJSI
Tue Jan 19, 2016 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Growth Stock as Bond Substitutes?... Malkiel vs. Swedroe
Replies: 22
Views: 3561

Re: Dividend Growth Stock as Bond Substitutes?... Malkiel vs. Swedroe

I suspect that this is much like the advice that John Bogle gave when asked how those who need some additional income should invest. He replied that they should look to the corporate sector whose dividends look pretty safe. He did not say stocks were bonds or chase high yield. I believe it is good a...
by TJSI
Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

ogd, You are doing the same thing as Dirghatamas--putting words in peoples mouths to try and win an argument. I did not say that postponing taxes was a marginal event. That is something you made up. Taxes are very important. I did say that buybacks create a tax event --either now or in the future. I...
by TJSI
Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

dbr,

I am pretty confident that the dividend "cult" believes there is an anti-dividend crowd. Much of what they repeat over and over is just plain wrong.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Dirghatamas, Sorry I never assumed that buybacks and dividends are equivalent. Please go back and read what I wrote. It is the anti-dividend crowd that often says you can create your own dividend by selling your stock. If I ever said or thought they were equivalent it was because I was smoking diffe...
by TJSI
Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

Dirghatamas said that dividends are taxed but buybacks are not. So buybacks are better. Something like this is often said by the anti-dividend crowd. However it is not correct. The best that you could say is that buybacks might postpone a taxable event. If a stockholder participates in a buyback pro...
by TJSI
Sat Jan 16, 2016 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 32582

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

I suspect it is hopeless but I will go through it one more time. First, the value of a company that is making the correct capital budgeting decisions does not decrease in value to stockholders when it pays a dividend. Dividends are paid out of excess cash (idle cash). This cash has no value to stock...
by TJSI
Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1577

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You asked what would be the metric that could be used to determine if a fund was truly a value fund. Since FF determined that the dominant factor in their value fund outperformance was valuation recovery, then I believe the best single metric would be P/E. A great study would be to look at...
by TJSI
Sun Jan 03, 2016 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?
Replies: 23
Views: 1577

Re: Is There Such a Thing as a 'Bad Time' to Purchase a Value Fund?

joer1212, You raise an interesting point. I suspect that there are periods of time when true value stocks vanish. Going back to the Graham & Dodd definition of a value stock ( selling below intrinsic value) , then when valuations are high, many of the value stocks in a value fund are no longer t...
by TJSI
Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"
Replies: 21
Views: 2368

Re: To calculate CAGR, how long is "a year?"

I think you are mixing metaphors. When computing CAGR for different investments the number of years is an integer. Say you had three investments. One increased by some mysterious stochastic process over 5 years. The second was a nice money fund that compounded daily. And the third was a bond which y...
by TJSI
Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 2537

Re: Low beta, low volatility

In addition to the references cited by MarcBecker above, I would add the excellent paper by Ibbotson & Kim " Risk & Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Best?" Jan 2015 They studied a 3,000 stock portfolio for 43 years (1972-2014) and found that the risk reward relationship w...
by TJSI
Wed Nov 18, 2015 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low beta, low volatility
Replies: 28
Views: 2537

Re: Low beta, low volatility

Well there is a lot more to the topic of low beta and returns. I believe the majority of studies show that for long holding periods low beta portfolios have greater returns than high beta portfolios. And low beta beats the market portfolio for long holding periods. A lot of people don't like this as...
by TJSI
Sun Nov 08, 2015 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks and High P/E Ratios
Replies: 19
Views: 1575

Re: Stock Buybacks and High P/E Ratios

Timely article in todays (11/8) NYT Business Section by Jeff Sommer titled "Microsoft's Buyback Engineering". Microsoft has spent $123.6 billion on buybacks and its stock price has come back to its 1999 high. One item not often pointed out in discussions of buybacks is the combination of v...
by TJSI
Fri Nov 06, 2015 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks and High P/E Ratios
Replies: 19
Views: 1575

Re: Stock Buybacks and High P/E Ratios

The question that always comes to my mind when I see this is: Would you give the same valuation to a company which increases eps through increased revenue and operating earnings as you would to company that increases eps through reduction in shares outstanding?
by TJSI
Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing
Replies: 41
Views: 4783

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Rebalancing

stlutz,

On balance--the best.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's selling now?
Replies: 63
Views: 7762

Re: Who's selling now?

TwobyFour, thanks for the chart showing ownership of the equity market. Now the question is who is doing all the trading? Bloomberg says there were 14 billion shares traded compared to an average of 6.6 billion. Is this hedge funds, high frequency traders, a bunch of software? I have never seen a go...
by TJSI
Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends
Replies: 157
Views: 17708

Re: Bogle: retirees should focus on dividends

tennisplyer, you are confused by the constant repetition of incorrect and incomplete information. The price of a stock increases before the dividend is paid and then decreases after it is paid. Most studies show that the increase is slightly more than the decrease. If a company is making the correct...
by TJSI
Sat Jul 18, 2015 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leverage and beating the market
Replies: 37
Views: 3063

Re: leverage and beating the market

privatefarmer, I think part of the answer was contained in your question. Many professional money managers don't have a "long term" to produce results. They are often judged on yearly results and if it takes 10 years or more for a tilt to show its effect, than as lack_ey said "it can ...
by TJSI
Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?
Replies: 40
Views: 4836

Re: Do Dividends Actually Add To The Total Return of a Stock?

Why not consult the SEC about the movement of stock prices around the ex-dividend date? See: http://edgar.sec.gov/answers/dividen.htm . Before the ex-dividend date the price rises and then settles back down after ex-dividend date. And generally the rise slightly exceeds the roll-down in price.
by TJSI
Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 11840

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Nisiprius, Generally, there are no tender offers with buybacks. The only exception that I can think of is when a company is going private which might be considered an extreme form of buyback. As a private stockholder you must trade on an open market. There will be an announcement at a board of direc...
by TJSI
Wed Jun 03, 2015 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield
Replies: 192
Views: 11840

Re: Dividend yield is a lot less important than buyback yield

Something that always seems to be forgotten when buybacks are discussed is that companies do not give cash to stockholders who sell during a buyback campaign. They exchange cash for shares. Those shares have a real value which could in fact be greater than the cash exchanged. A dividend is cash rece...

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