Search found 265 matches

by TJSI
Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3689

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

Note on Note: After getting some sleep, I see that my note only adds confusion. I was referring to the to the Michael Kitces analysis not the article first quoted. Mr Kitces found that indeed starting valuations at a 15 year span had a very significant effect on returns. After 30 years, the effect w...
by TJSI
Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation does not matter (may be)
Replies: 55
Views: 3689

Re: Valuation does not matter (may be)

Note on the analysis:

This is not an analysis of the effect of valuation changes but rather the effect on initial valuation on subsequent return.

TJSI
by TJSI
Sun Feb 12, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Ned Said Effect strikes again
Replies: 52
Views: 3804

Re: The Ned Said Effect strikes again

However it is awesome to have an EFFECT named after you.

TJSI
by TJSI
Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to stay in Siesta Key
Replies: 10
Views: 1264

Re: Where to stay in Siesta Key

As a coincidence a relative of mine just visited Siesta Key for a short stay(3 day) with their family. They stayed at the Tropical Breeze and liked it.
Very good location but not on the water. It is adjacent to the village and a short walk to the ocean. Weather was great.
by TJSI
Tue Feb 07, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Seth Klarman NY Times Article]
Replies: 19
Views: 1582

Re: SETH KLARMAN NY Times ARTICLE

His non-political comments are interesting. Here is part of his comments: "stocks outside the indices may be cast adrift, no longer attached to the valuation grid but increasing off of it. This should give long-term value investors a distinct advantage." His thesis is the fewer people doin...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?

Here is the actual quote: On whether he still advises most investors to take on an age-based, bond-heavy portfolio, where Social Security is factored in as if it was a bond: Bogle: The original statement, going way back to my first book in 1993, was to set up a rule of thumb -- not a rule -- that ea...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?

Mr. Bogle made an interesting comment recently about the "age in bonds rule". He said something like" When I made that rule, yields were much higher." This implied to me that he would suggest a different rule now that reflected the current low bond yields. So it would not surpris...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?
Replies: 20
Views: 1814

Re: Bogle advocating bonds=age-15?

Mr. Bogle made an interesting comment recently about the "age in bonds rule". He said something like" When I made that rule, yields were much higher." This implied to me that he would suggest a different rule now that reflected the current low bond yields. So it would not surpris...
by TJSI
Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Living Off Interest/Dividends
Replies: 54
Views: 5429

Re: Thoughts on Living Off Interest/Dividends

bucky6225, You have it right. If you can live off your SS, interest, and dividends you are doing well. There is no equivalence between using dividends and selling your productive assets. John Bogle in a recent interviews(http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-save-for-retirement-vanguard-john-bogle-2...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 12, 2017 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2214

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

nedsaid,

Isn't everything overvalued due to low interest rates? Are consumer staples more, less, or about the same overvalue as the market?

Is there a Shiller P/E for consumer staples? Might be interesting to find out.

TJSI
by TJSI
Tue Jan 10, 2017 8:28 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member
Replies: 117
Views: 17760

Re: Sad News About a Respected Forum Member

Thank you for the gift of your knowledge. You have helped many along the way and it is appreciated.


TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2214

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

Ethelred asked : "Can you link some of that research?" A good study by Ibbotson & Kim (Jan 2016) is " "Risk & Return Within the Stock Market: What Works Best? " Another reference is: "The Low-Volatility Effect: A Comprehensive Look" (http://us.spindices.com...
by TJSI
Mon Jan 09, 2017 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 2214

Re: Lazy Portfolio with Sector Funds

The Vanguard paper said: " An investor should expect high volatility from the fund." Wow, they are living in a different universe. Consumer Staples is a low volatility sector and as a defensive investment is not bad. And there is a lot of research that over long periods, low volatility sto...
by TJSI
Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 2733

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

Sorry Tony, meant that as humor. Guess it was not funny.

TJSI
by TJSI
Sun Jan 08, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 2733

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

TonyDAntonio, Trader/Investor,

You are confusing strategy with outcome!

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM
Replies: 179
Views: 17793

Re: frustrating to keep investing in international/EM

Shouldn't we be wary of the "Nedsaid Effect"?

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"
Replies: 91
Views: 8222

Re: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"

sharpjm, From" Drained by Drips: The Hidden Cost of Buying on the Dividend Pay Date by H. Berkman "In this study we document surprisingly strong evidence of a predictable temporary price increase around the dividend pay date, which has grown in magnitude each decade since the 1970’s. For t...
by TJSI
Sun Dec 18, 2016 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"
Replies: 91
Views: 8222

Re: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"

PJW I would say the difference in our examples is that you recognize a drop in price after the dividend is paid but won't recognize the increase in price before dividend pay date. And that goes to the heart of much of what is incorrect about the frequent analysis of dividends. In the real world, the...
by TJSI
Sun Dec 18, 2016 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"
Replies: 91
Views: 8222

Re: Over the last 40 years, 71% of the stock market's return came from dividends, not capital appreciation,"

Whoppee, What you are missing in your example is that the market price ( and by this I assume you mean fair price) would rise to $12 before the dividend was paid and settle back down to $11 after the payment. Whenever dividends are discussed, the rise in price before the dividend payment is often ig...
by TJSI
Thu Nov 24, 2016 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Approaching the S&P 500 like Benjamin Graham
Replies: 13
Views: 2299

Re: Approaching the S&P 500 like Benjamin Graham

nedsaid, I expect that if Mr Graham was still around for the dotcom boom, he would change his opinion again about the smart, well-educated analysts. I believe it was Prof Shiller who said that the idea of the market being governed by analysts doing careful valuation studies was just an illusion. I s...
by TJSI
Mon Oct 10, 2016 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yield and Return"
Replies: 29
Views: 3157

Re: "Yield and Return"

I'm with BolderBoy on this. This article adds nothing to help a novice understand the use of the terms yield or return. Both terms are ambiguous unless the user of the term explains exactly what they mean. If they mean dividend yield, then they should state it that way--dividend yield. Why they can ...
by TJSI
Thu Sep 29, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower risk, higher returns?
Replies: 18
Views: 2044

Re: Lower risk, higher returns?

Like the Efficient Market Theory, I have long felt that the Risk Story belongs in the fiction section of the library. And fundamentally you are rewarded by eliminating as much risk as you can and punished for taking risk.

But it does provide a lot of interesting math.
by TJSI
Mon Jul 04, 2016 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A favorite Peter Lynch quote.
Replies: 26
Views: 3762

Re: A favorite Peter Lynch quote.

Excellent words of wisdom from nedsaid on this 4th of July! And let us not forget the Founders of this great nation who seem to receive a lot of criticism hundreds of years after they have passed. We are blessed today by what they accomplished.
by TJSI
Wed Jun 22, 2016 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

dkturner, You have raised a good point. Buybacks could be an excellent tool to damp the volatility of stock price. They could step in if prices dropped significantly below their estimate of intrinsic value. And I am sure than some companies do make a good faith estimate of intrinsic value. But there...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Lobster, Mr. Buffett has commented several times on buybacks and I believe most recently on IBM and their repurchase program. He believes IBM did the right thing. He is a very firm believer in buying stocks below intrinsic value. He has never said that buybacks are good in general. In one of letters...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Thank you Simplegift for that Credit Swiss reference. It is by far the best discussion of buybacks I have seen. They recognize the difference between holding and selling shareholders. And from their conclusion: " Buybacks only benefit continuing shareholders when management executes them when t...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Simplegift, You wrote "It seems there's a return to shareholders." There is indeed a return to shareholders but the calculation of it is difficult. One set of shareholders wins while the others lose. That is why it would be great if those who write about buybacks clearly state which stockh...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Ogd, You conveniently forget that when a company does a buyback they take from stockholders something of value. The stock surrendered does have value. And in some cases it is worth more than the cash received. The value of stock removed from stockholders needs to be netted out of any calculation of ...
by TJSI
Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: Dividend and Buyback Yields, S&P 500, 1982-2015

Simplegift, That buyback yield is not a yield in any conventional definition of yield. You are just adding two dissimilar percent changes to produce a number which means nothing. A yield is a return on investment. It tells you what you are gaining from your investment. When people talk of stockholde...
by TJSI
Sat Jun 11, 2016 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMDs- Is this accurate?
Replies: 9
Views: 1272

Re: RMDs- Is this accurate?

Yes, you can do a transfer to a taxable account and not sell the securities. You will pay tax on the amount transferred.

TJSI
by TJSI
Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks
Replies: 28
Views: 1314

Re: Yale scholars on tax treatment of stock buybacks

When a company executes a buyback someone or some entity sells their stock. That is a taxable event. If a capital gain, the piper gets paid. For the non-participating stockholders they may see their stock go up in price or if the market things it was a mistake, they may see their stock price go down...
by TJSI
Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]
Replies: 5
Views: 959

Re: Rob Arnott: Capital Market Expectations [video]

Thanks. A very informative presentation--well done. I had never heard the saying "Run toward the lion." It certainly takes guts.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Jun 06, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: D Day 72 years ago...
Replies: 48
Views: 4158

Re: D Day 72 years ago...

Valuethinker said: Not sure which Ranger group? It was 2nd Battalion under Lt Col. James Rudder. Valuethink also said: "But US troops had gotten to the top of the cliffs without their fire." --referring to US Navy destroyer. From General Bradley's A Soldier's Story : "A destroyer race...
by TJSI
Sun Jun 05, 2016 8:57 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: D Day 72 years ago...
Replies: 48
Views: 4158

Re: D Day 72 years ago...

But for the action of a US Navy Commander the invasion of Omaha Beach might have turned out different. Seeing the Rangers being killed, he broke his orders and ordered his destroyers to get as close to the beach and open fire. They were able to clear the Germans from the cliff top and the Rangers we...
by TJSI
Sun May 22, 2016 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WW2 Books & Education
Replies: 91
Views: 4114

Re: WW2 Books & Education

At some point you should read Winston Churchill's six volume "The Second World War". A magnificent writer and probably the most important person responsible for saving western civilization, his description of the events during WWII is a classic. If you are just starting out on your reading...
by TJSI
Tue May 17, 2016 5:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight
Replies: 92
Views: 9845

Re: Arrgghhh !!! Windows 10 installed overnight

Got me today. I walked away from my computer for about an hour and MS had taken control. Cursed MS and cursed myself for not doing a recent back-up. Well so far no problems. At least I won't have to deal with the annoying pop-ups asking me to upgrade. Just think how life will be when the "Inter...
by TJSI
Thu May 05, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: portfolios with different standard deviations
Replies: 6
Views: 584

Re: portfolios with different standard deviations

Just to add a bit of perspective--not all investors consider volatility to be risk. This includes Graham & Dodd and Warren Buffet. Some would say that volatility allows you to buy at a good price. In the academic world, volatility and its measure standard deviation is widely used as a proxy for ...
by TJSI
Sun May 01, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Siesta Key later this month -recommendations
Replies: 16
Views: 1808

Re: Siesta Key later this month -recommendations

First Watch in downtown Sarasota serves a very good breakfast. As I recall you can get breakfast until 2 PM .
Downside--very busy on weekends. Breakfast is their thing.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 34743

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

DaSid,

You are welcome to your own meaning of the word never. However, I'll stick with the normal meaning and go with Prof Shiller and his knowledge of
of stockholder value.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 34743

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

DaSid,

Berkhire has not said they will never pay a dividend. In fact, Munger has said that he expects that at some point they will. When a company is in the high growth phase they should not pay a dividend.

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why do investors prefer cash dividends
Replies: 372
Views: 34743

Re: why do investors prefer cash dividends

snaryjack,

Better yet is what Noble Prize winner and Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University Robert Shiller said:

"If a company said it would never pay a dividend, it would be worthless. It would be a private company."

TJSI
by TJSI
Fri Mar 04, 2016 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just lost 4.08% on Forever stamps.
Replies: 63
Views: 7933

Re: Just lost 4.08% on Forever stamps.

A good opportunity for TLH.
by TJSI
Mon Feb 15, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 3-4-16)
Replies: 81
Views: 7528

Re: "Duration" of S & P 500 (as of 2-12-16)

Jalbert,

I believe you are right about using the Gordon Model to calculate a stock market duration. The Gordon Model assumes an infinite time horizon so it problematic to use it calculate a finite time --duration.

TJSI
by TJSI
Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% Stocks?
Replies: 293
Views: 32638

Re: Why not 100% Stocks?

Go Blue 99 I read Mr. Levine's NYT article this morning (How Much of Your Nest Egg To Put Into Stocks? All of it) and found it interesting but not that useful. He used Warren Buffet's allocation of stocks for his wife (90%) as part of his argument to go heavy on stocks as you get older. And I think ...
by TJSI
Mon Feb 08, 2016 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thank goodness for my precious metals
Replies: 63
Views: 4515

Re: Thank goodness for my precious metals

If I were relatively wealthy ( about $10 million in assets), I would have a good chunk in gold--maybe $800K. And I would own a couple of modest condos. Since we have a Larry Portfolio, I will call this the Scarlet Portfolio ( "I'll never be hungry again"). I wouldn't expect the gold to pro...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Today's dumbest investment advice
Replies: 32
Views: 4309

Re: Today's dumbest investment advice

Bertilik, That statement by Investopedia is just plain wrong. Exchanges don't set prices nor can they lower them. The price is set by the bids and asks. The exchange just clears the bids and asks. Now apparently brokerage houses will lower bids by the dividend unless told otherwise. The opening pric...
by TJSI
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??
Replies: 179
Views: 13411

Re: What is your favorite Financial Quote or Metaphor??

Mr Market is a manic depressive. ( I don't know who first said this.)

And he is off his meds today. (Added by me.)

TJSI
by TJSI
Sat Jan 30, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I got let go yesterday
Replies: 45
Views: 10267

Re: I got let go yesterday

I agree with soupcxan--it is highly likely that the company failed not you. It is possible that nobody-- no matter how smart or hard working could have succeeded without the needed experience. Whoever hired you probably did not understand the requirements of the position. A lot of engineering is boo...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 28, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide Dividend Trends
Replies: 12
Views: 1483

Re: Worldwide Dividend Trends

Dirghatamas, Unfortunately, you don't want to think more deeply about the issue. Instead you answer with something about selling shares to raise cash. I did not ask about the equivalents of buyback and dividends. I just asked a simple question: Do not the stocks that companies buyback have value? An...
by TJSI
Thu Jan 28, 2016 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide Dividend Trends
Replies: 12
Views: 1483

Re: Worldwide Dividend Trends

Dirghatmas, I would like to submit a question to you. Assume that companies are doing the right thing when they do a buyback. That is they are buying back their shares at a price that is less than the intrinsic value of the stock. In that case, are the companies not taking cash from stockholders? TJSI

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