Search found 1090 matches

by Snowjob
Mon Feb 08, 2016 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No guts to buy today!
Replies: 52
Views: 4407

Re: No guts to buy today!

I'm continuing to add to my equity exposure as the year wears on. Its been grinding for industrials which have been my main focus so far. It hurts to see your purchases continue to fall in price. I think my experience with the 2008 / 2009 decline has taught me plenty of valuable lessons about exposu...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Cramer
Replies: 21
Views: 2019

Re: Jim Cramer

What I would say is this. Does he know what he is talking about? Yes, certainly more than anyone here when it comes to the markets operations and whats going on with individual companies (unless we have industry insiders lurking on the board) Does he outperform the market? Who knows, I would guess m...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg
Replies: 10
Views: 1209

Re: Re Yale Endowment, via Bloomberg

50 million in 1990 in total market would be worth about 329 million today. The hedge fund more than paid for itself it is worth 1 billion dollars.... 10% beats the Total market from 1994 to today by about 1%. And losing only 18% financial crisis had to help you sleep at night. It is very hard to ar...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 543

Re: My portfolio

Any desire to leave money to kids / charities? I have only one child. I gave her free education, bought her an apartment when she married and we enjoy spoiling the grand children. Although at a minimum she will inherit some real estate, to me what we have already done is enough. With that in mind, ...
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What growth rate would you use?
Replies: 75
Views: 3520

Re: What growth rate would you use?

I'm using 4% real returns for Equity (when I want to feel better, 3% if I want to be safe) and 0% for cash & bonds.
by Snowjob
Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: My portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 543

Re: My portfolio

Any desire to leave money to kids / charities?
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Nearing retirement but annual contribution still very significant
Replies: 40
Views: 3266

Re: Nearing retirement but annual contribution still very significant

You are applying a generality to your situation. A typical boglehead probably is around 30x or more (a little safer than the 25x expenses we talk about with the 4% swr) so they are probably talking a 2-3% increase to liquid net worth not a 5-8%. In that light the generality makes more sense. If it w...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japan reduces interest rates below 0
Replies: 16
Views: 2746

Re: Japan reduces interest rates below 0

I think it's a sign of desperation. yeah, scares the crap out of me. At some point we stop living in the illusion of sustained demand (and growth of that) for the newest X, and more of Y. when we settle down to simply an economy that is simply sustaining (or much closer to it) we end up with less t...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

haha, I remember one stock that I sold after a triple, could have had a 10 bagger if I waited, but is now bankrupt. sooooo yeah I'll take the smaller gain and roll into the index. I'm ok with placing preservation of capital over return of capital at this juncture of my life.
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 29, 2016 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regret of selling winning stocks early
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Regret of selling winning stocks early

Simple rule: never sell anything that's uptrending (i.e. price above its 100-200 day moving average) I think of opportunity cost as very real ... Trends aren't crystal balls, but they take a helluva lot of guesswork out of things do you make broad shifts in your asset allocation the trend shifts ne...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buybacks and factor exposure
Replies: 8
Views: 1137

Re: Buybacks and factor exposure

I have always looked at buybacks as one of the few key factors in purchasing an individual stock. A constant reduction of share count should appeal to investors especially since most investors are looking at more mature companies. Were the average investor looking at smaller companies with long runw...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper stock certificates - can I get one?
Replies: 24
Views: 1770

Re: Paper stock certificates - can I get one?

...at scripophily.com and I imagine you can buy them there as well. Yep. I even see "Complementary Irving Trust Company Stock (Issued during the Depression) - 1930's with all Orders Plus New York Central & Hudson River Railroad 1913 100 Year Bond with all Orders over $200." I can see ...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper stock certificates - can I get one?
Replies: 24
Views: 1770

Re: Paper stock certificates - can I get one?

Thanks guys, I was thinking of getting a few shares of rail road stocks as a wall decoration for my father who is a model rail road enthusiast. I think he would love it given his interest in the stock market. He always said he would love to own some railroad stocks but never had.
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paper stock certificates - can I get one?
Replies: 24
Views: 1770

Paper stock certificates - can I get one?

In the age of internet trading i was curious if it was even possible to get a paper stock certificate
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 10403

Re: The last 15 years

absent fear of collapse, shouldn't equity be priced to have the same expected return as bonds? I mean *everyone knows that when the market drops it just comes back up* right? If we base everything on the price movement of asset classes on our absurdly unique small set of history and ignore real risk...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 25, 2016 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The last 15 years
Replies: 100
Views: 10403

Re: The last 15 years

You can convince yourself buying and overweighting expensive equities has been a great move - and say silly things about CAPE failing - but valuations have tracked 10-year returns over this period, and equities have been about the poorest risk-adjusted returns going Other than the absurd times of t...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 29
Views: 3278

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX)

I am terrible with market timing, however I did hear one bit of advice that makes sense -- wait until the bottom is in and the turn around is motion! Better to catch half the upside and none of the down, then be in for a whole lot more downside than you wanted by being early. I think this especially...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 7430

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

As someone in their early 30's and using asset valuations we see today, my long term forecast for equity returns over the next 50 years (my lifetime) is about 3% real. If that's your 50 year forecast then I'd consider alternative investments. Well the real return for the 50 years after 1929 was onl...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 07, 2016 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $3k to $50m strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 7430

Re: $3k to $50m strategy

As someone in their early 30's and using asset valuations we see today, my long term forecast for equity returns over the next 50 years (my lifetime) is about 3% real. If we assign a 1% SC Value premium that will hopefully persist, that 3,000 will turn into a cool 22,000 when Junior needs it for his...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has anybody tried living on Wellingtion dividends and capital gains only and how long would you be able to do it?
Replies: 13
Views: 2580

Re: Has anybody tried living on Wellingtion dividends and capital gains only and how long would you be able to do it?

I have not tried living on the distributions, but I have calculated what the historic results would have been. By taking the income distributions in cash and automatically reinvesting the capital gain distributions, the annual income distribution amounts would have done a good job tracking inflatio...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chipotle
Replies: 16
Views: 1662

Re: Chipotle

Yeah aggressively propping up the stock price through the buyback seems a bit much. I suppose that really means they might be underestimating the damage here. There is no need to accelerate the re-purchase unless you are convinced that this issue is behind you and the depression in the stock prices ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Saved half of income last year - struggling to see the point
Replies: 45
Views: 6023

Re: Saved half of income last year - struggling to see the point

As in all things -- balance. Run the numbers, if by saving this amount for the next 10-15 years you will be way ahead of your retirement needs your saving to much and can afford to spend more today. I saved a ton my first 10 years and now I have taken the foot off the gas so to speak. I realized tha...
by Snowjob
Sat Jan 02, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Securing Emails / Identity
Replies: 12
Views: 922

Re: Securing Emails / Identity

Yeah I am finally setting up 2 factor on my gmail account(s). I actually didn't know it existed -- honestly the multi factor Interactive brokers account log in system is one of the reasons I've used them for years. Thanks guys
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 31, 2015 4:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Securing Emails / Identity
Replies: 12
Views: 922

Re: Securing Emails / Identity

I have 3 email accounts... My thinking was along those lines -- leaning toward two instead of the three like you have. As you say the difference being the separate device which I'm debating more heavily than the first step which would be having separate email accounts FYI, if you use anything Googl...
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 31, 2015 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Securing Emails / Identity
Replies: 12
Views: 922

Re: Securing Emails / Identity

My suspicion was the the shuttle company also -- they are looking into this for me right now. I agree on the downside of less visibility, as I certainly would be checking it less often. I guess I was mostly worried that someone had those three pieces of information and wanted to limit this to two pi...
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Securing Emails / Identity
Replies: 12
Views: 922

Securing Emails / Identity

I recently had my identity used and it got me thinking about how to take extra precaution with my financial data. To add an additional layer of security I was thinking of buying a new google tablet, creating a new email address specific for my financial accounts (Bank / CC / Brokerage) and using tha...
by Snowjob
Fri Dec 11, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Finance-What numbers do you track?
Replies: 20
Views: 1890

Re: Personal Finance-What numbers do you track?

- Savings as a % of Gross Income. - Savings as a % of Retirement Assets - Savings as a % of Dividends & Interest on accumulated Retirement assets The first metric is an efficiency metric to see how prolific a saver you are and / or how trying to get better job will really help your ability to be...
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: can I retire early
Replies: 25
Views: 3229

Re: can I retire early

[quote="Watty"][/quote]

Basically everything Watty said --- Theoretically your fine.

If you could squeeze out 1 more year of work at your current higher paying job (or transition to a couple years work at some lower paying ones) that extra cash would provide a heck of a buffer
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fairholme (FAIRX) warning
Replies: 44
Views: 3861

Re: Picking Fund Managers ?

Bogleheads: In 2009, Bruce Berkowitz, manager of the Fairholme Fund, was named Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Decade by Morningstar . Today, The Fairholme Fund's 5-year return is in the bottom 1% of its Morningstar category. If Morningstar experts cannot select winning fund managers, who can? &...
by Snowjob
Mon Nov 30, 2015 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Strictly Worse "Composite" Funds - Total World
Replies: 12
Views: 1704

Re: Strictly Worse "Composite" Funds - Total World

VT appeals to me from a simplicity and efficiency perspective in the taxable account. No need to rebalance and no capital gains -- ever (unless I want to take them). That said I do worry about the high weighting to foreign equity as I am home country biased -- I believe our favorable legal structure...
by Snowjob
Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life
Replies: 60
Views: 6047

Re: Fixed Asset Allocation for the rest of your life

Assuming I get 75% social security... I will be using more of a liability matching portfolio and once SS and Annuities kick in at 70 (assuming those are still viable options I'm in my early 30's now) I will only carry enough bonds to allow for a small portion of my income between 70 and 90 with the ...
by Snowjob
Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: American Express Blue Preferred -- Which Department stores are 3%? Also, which grocery stores are included?
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: American Express Blue Preferred -- Which Department stores are 3%? Also, which grocery stores are included?

Highly doubt the coop will accept amex period-- that would be the bigger shock

Big Y, WholeFoods seem to be fine for me on the grocer front for the 6%. Gas Stations seem to all work for the 3%. I dont shop at department stores so I've never checked.
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 19, 2015 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Multiple Investment Goals
Replies: 27
Views: 2634

Re: Multiple Investment Goals

Thank you, that makes a lot of sense. I'm actually a bit embarrassed about letting way too much worry blind me to the fact I'm borrowing at 3.75% to earn .75%... Starting a traditional IRA will help free up some cash due to taxes.... Mark, I would agree with these two steps above, I think those are...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with $50K now and discretionary $7500/month going forward (please advise)
Replies: 25
Views: 4076

Re: What to do with $50K now and discretionary $7500/month going forward (please advise)

Honestly the 50k cash, is just part of the overall portfolio, and if your saving 7500 a month (80 k/ year wow!!!) that becomes a very small piece of the pie going forward. Basically its not a huge drag on your future returns. However that cash does provide a nice pillow to sleep on at night. I'd per...
by Snowjob
Wed Nov 11, 2015 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relationship Between Beta, Time and an Investment's Benchmarked Return
Replies: 8
Views: 338

Re: Relationship Between Beta, Time and an Investment's Benchmarked Return

Tibs is right at the extremes. Ultimately, its not about how much an investment declines in a vacuum -- we need to know the causes of decline, and the environmental response going forward to determine the pace of recovery. In short, it depends. I wouldn't bother trying to model it because usually th...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a problem with glidepath (target date funds) for retirement savers?
Replies: 87
Views: 7142

Re: Is there a problem with glidepath (target date funds) for retirement savers?

You are starting with headwinds. .... Hopefully the winds will change course for you at some point. ..... Be prepared to have a high savings rate. Not what you want to hear but that is what you will need. Thanks for your comments. And yes, you should be stock heavy at this stage in your life. Not c...
by Snowjob
Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a problem with glidepath (target date funds) for retirement savers?
Replies: 87
Views: 7142

Re: Is there a problem with glidepath (target date funds) for retirement savers?

Let's imagine a scenario where this product is offered to employees. Let's say that this was offered in 1982. Older employees who started in 1982 could have locked up higher rates of retirement income than the poor slobs who started in 2009. The older employees would have greater income per dollar ...
by Snowjob
Mon Nov 02, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cash Flow
Replies: 16
Views: 2250

Re: Cash Flow

Yes, its bad. Just like its bad practice to only look at 1 financial statement instead of all the financial statements of the company. Would you invest in a company that showed positive cash flow but had thin margins and held a massive, potentially crushing debt load? Basically anything in a vacuum ...
by Snowjob
Sun Nov 01, 2015 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much of your total income are you worth?
Replies: 51
Views: 6483

Re: How much of your total income are you worth?

Back of the envelope, not counting high-school and college that would be to much digging.

120%
by Snowjob
Sun Nov 01, 2015 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?
Replies: 56
Views: 7613

Re: Bernstein's "Deep Risk" - A rare opportunity for inflation protection?

I would love to have tips play an important roll in my retirement cash flow, but I am a long ways from needing them and I will only purchase them opportunistically. Until then a nice equity heavy portfolio -- say 75%/25% will need to do the trick. While I am very comfortable with the plan I have lai...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 29, 2015 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Funds Sue Vereit REIT for 'Billions'
Replies: 4
Views: 1230

Re: Vanguard Funds Sue Vereit REIT for 'Billions'

I remember following this REIT and scratching my head on all of these transactions... There had been concern surrounding the effectiveness of the strategy and quality of those AFFO numbers & projections.
by Snowjob
Wed Oct 28, 2015 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend to Earned Income Ratio
Replies: 8
Views: 669

Re: Dividend to Earned Income Ratio

I might do something like this -- 25% Dividends 25% SPIA 25% Tips interest / redemption 25% Social Security Bottom three are ultra safe and would support a nice standard of living while the dividends are gravy. Excess equity will be left for inheritance and/or charitable causes. Of course I'm cheati...
by Snowjob
Sat Oct 24, 2015 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's wrong with this picture - Small Value/Growth
Replies: 67
Views: 3797

Re: What's wrong with this picture - Small Value/Growth

Money chases returns and runs from losses. Over time fundamentals prevail.
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 22, 2015 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 24980

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

Once I became a millionaire, I decided I'd never have a job I didn't like again. That's the first number. Once I found a job I enjoyed, the second number became irrelevant. Brilliant !!! The only caveat being if the job you enjoyed payed very little you may need to bump up that first number a bit.
by Snowjob
Wed Oct 21, 2015 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your 2 retirement numbers?
Replies: 260
Views: 24980

Re: What are your 2 retirement numbers?

Some quick back of the envelopes -- assumes fully retiring, 75% of SS, no pension, paid off residence. Aspirational Acceptable Minimal Age 50-----[2.9M]-------------2.1M-------------1.4M Age 60------2.3M -------------1.7M-------------1.1M Age 70------1.6M -------------1.2M-------------0.8M I placed ...
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 09, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please review after 10 years investing
Replies: 12
Views: 1389

Re: Please review after 10 years investing

Other than simplifying, I there would be nothing much to act on. Sounds like you have worked hard and were lucky enough to have a couple nice pensions kicking in. Are you both in good health? Do you have any desire to leave money behind? Are the pensions inflation adjusted? Depending on circumstance...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning
Replies: 93
Views: 10972

Re: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning

... At best reforming DC retirement plans to focus on best methods to produce reliable retirement income will take a long time. In the mean time we will have to muddle thru with DC retirement plans whose design is far removed from the optimal design primary retirement plans should have. BobK At the...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wellington vs my idea what do you think of it?
Replies: 19
Views: 2241

Re: Wellington vs my idea what do you think of it?

And adding small and mid cap exposure which wellington doesnt have much of.

Personally, the more and more I learn and experience in finance and in life the more I'm inclined to keep it as simple as possible. Just go wellington and forget about it
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning
Replies: 93
Views: 10972

Re: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning

In the push for more simple, low cost 401k's where typically folks are faced with limited options and shut out of brokerage windows for a wide variety, it makes doing this likely impossible for the majority of folks. Unless they want to quit their job simply to roll their funds to a self directed IR...
by Snowjob
Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning
Replies: 93
Views: 10972

Re: Common Misconceptions about Safe Floor Retirement Planning

For the benefit of readers with even less one-pass comprehension than me, it would be good if someone could post a Cliff's Notes synopsis of whatever the salient points were... My take is that if you want a SPIA for guaranteed income, you have to be careful in your planning to have enough money to ...

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