Search found 1350 matches

by Snowjob
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 399
Views: 38367

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

Love to ski, had Gi Joes as a kid. The skier was was my favorite.



Image
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3408

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

.... I plan to retire at 62, take my Social Security at that time, and use a variable 4% SWR based on the size of my portfolio . Is that SWR optimum? Who knows! But it is good enough. I agree with you: Enjoyment is found by living in the present. If you are somebody ele's employee, work is the mean...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Alternative
Replies: 59
Views: 5749

Re: Amazon Alternative

GratefulinNC wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:32 pm
Support your local economy. Shop at your local bricks and mortar stores. Keep your Main Street strong.
I refuse to use amazon.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 3408

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

... But I have also spent the last 7 years working like a dog and it has affected my marriage in a negative way. I have done great as far as saving money but now I realize that I have given up some great years in my youth that I will not get back. I have decided to take a huge chunk of what I have ...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Arguments against rising equity glide path?
Replies: 40
Views: 2406

Re: Arguments against rising equity glide path?

rkhusky wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:40 pm
There is always the risk that the future will not look like the past. If you don't need to take the risk, should you? If the market drops by 50% and doesn't come back to even for 20 years, how would that affect your standard of living?
Yep that would suck.
by Snowjob
Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Budget and Savings
Replies: 5
Views: 565

Re: Budget and Savings

Honestly, I think you are over-saving unless that 900 each month going to the bank is going to be used on vacations and travel. Your covering a mortgage, maxing all your retirement plans, saving an additional 10k a year in after tax but are only spending 600 dollars a year on entertainment. As long ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 588

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

And right now in the US we have a very healthy Venture Capital economy that is funding all our new startups. I think this new method is actually better for the businesses as the good ones survive long term and eventually go public (see Facebook for example). I will take the other side, slightly. I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money
Replies: 32
Views: 1831

Re: Where would you tell a 12 year old to park his money

Given how small the dollars are, keep him invested in individual stocks of companies he and his peers use and value -- Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Paypal, whatever car company he is interested in or fast food restaurant he likes to eat, perhaps the bank he has a small savings account at. He w...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?
Replies: 5
Views: 588

Re: Eclipse of the Public Corporation or Eclipse of the Public Markets?

It is unfortunate in a way.

Would be nice us small fish to get a piece of the action.
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are earnings less volatile today?
Replies: 2
Views: 306

Are earnings less volatile today?

The multiple people are willing to pay for earnings is always shifting relative to intensest rates, perceived risk, investor demand etc. I understand one needs to be willing to accept changes in this. What I am curious about is the nature of the underlying earnings. I suspect that over time (last 10...
by Snowjob
Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young vs Middle Aged?
Replies: 32
Views: 2863

Re: Young vs Middle Aged?

I am 35. On a social level, I am just starting to really feel old around 25 year old's who are the younger end of my friend group. Everyone's career and family life (single, married, kids etc) takes different paths so that muddies the water a bit, so I tend to lean on how well we hang out and connec...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?
Replies: 120
Views: 7576

Re: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?

Interesting, I assume you want something that is applicable to your own economic conditions so I will have a go. The biggest idea is sell your individual stocks and stick with index funds, but not for the reason you may think. You are in a Goldilocks situation -- great income, stable employer, pens...
by Snowjob
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?
Replies: 120
Views: 7576

Re: What advice would you give yourself if you were 27 again?

Interesting, I assume you want something that is applicable to your own economic conditions so I will have a go. The biggest idea is sell your individual stocks and stick with index funds, but not for the reason you may think. You are in a Goldilocks situation -- great income, stable employer, pensi...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What if Your Play Money Blows Up?
Replies: 31
Views: 4063

Re: What if Your Play Money Blows Up?

Taxes aside, I would move at least that original 5% into the main portfolio so you are guaranteed to have never lost anything then do whatever you want with the remaining.
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 49
Views: 5233

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

I prefer a simple, transparent insurance policy. Put the entire investment into the SP500, e.g. buy SPY. Insure annually by buying one-year Puts, current prices: 0% downwards acceptable: cost is 5.2% 5% downwards acceptable: cost is 3.7% 10% downwards acceptable: cost is 2.7% You are going to be pa...
by Snowjob
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Ray Dalio/Tony Robbins All-Weather portfolio questions
Replies: 26
Views: 2125

Re: Ray Dalio/Tony Robbins All-Weather portfolio questions

Treasuries at 65% of the portfolio - is quite conservative, I personally would have less of a stake at this point maybe 40% at best and probably reduce the duration given where rates are but I suppose this is to taste. Maybe swap in some TIPs too Commodities at 7.5% of the portf - your basically hol...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective
Replies: 18
Views: 2669

Re: Asset Allocation in Early Retirement--a different Perspective

I feel like this is mostly a complicated way to say -- save more money. I like the physiological benefit of thinking oh well I can lose 50% and still be good for a basic frugal retirement for 30 years. But mostly its a way of saying, I have a lot of money squirreled away already. Also, in order to a...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 25, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 401k millionaires
Replies: 158
Views: 23643

Re: 401k millionaires

Way to much bad data to do any concrete analysis but it does do a good job at reminding all of us that the goalposts keep moving. That's a massive increase in new millionaire accounts regardless! I was feeling good about myself but when you sit back and think about it -- the only thing that matters ...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12805

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Not a milestone but a dizzying statistic-- so far in January, I've received 1 paycheck of 2018 from my employer for a gross value of X... My portfolio is up 18X. Ok sure, once the second paycheck comes in at the end of the month this will drop this down to more of a 9-10x for the month number but I ...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"
Replies: 33
Views: 3500

Re: "The Pain of Discipline or the Pain of Regret?"

Sometimes I wonder if these people are living on a different planet. 2008-09, 2011, and 15-16 weren't that emotionally stressful. Sometimes I wonder if people on this forum are living on a different planet. I graduated university in December 2008. I had to take a job working in a call center for $9...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected earning in next 10 years
Replies: 12
Views: 1120

Re: Expected earning in next 10 years

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html I find the above link helpful. The toughest thing to predict is earnings growth. However, if consensus forward earnings prove to be correct, we are pricing in an 18x multiple 1 year out (see the wsj market data) and I don't think that's particul...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34926

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Flexible approaches are a sane way of going but you add a lot more complexity to the model. The question is always you retiree in 1966/1973/2000 of how much to cut back. You can do massive cuts (see VPW or any schemes that uses starting year account balances), you can do nothing (4% rule), or you c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34926

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I'm planning on a mix of Social Security, Annuities and a flexible 4% of whatever the portfolio balance is after that. Actually, if your necessities can be covered by SS and annuities, you could probably use a 5% WR with the rest of your portfolio or an even higher rate if you used a flexible (i.e....
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34926

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You'll note that I said 50x our base living expenses, meaning the non-discretionary necessities (e.g. utilities, groceries, auto insurance, property taxes). I'd like to spend about that much again on discretionary categories like traveling. But my point is that with 50x my base living expenses, I c...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34926

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I think that's wise advice. Personally, I don't plan on retiring until my portfolio is roughly 50x my base living expenses. I plan on withdrawing around 5% of the portfolio value each year. So even if my portfolio were to be cut in value by half, I'd still have enough to cover the necessities, in a...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34926

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

This is just "in theory". In reality, would you (or the hypothetical retiree) have actually had the guts to ride it out? I remember Jim Cramer screaming something like DOW 6666 was going to something like DOW 3333. OK, Bogleheads don't do Cramer, but would the smug 1999 retiree that you describe RE...
by Snowjob
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12805

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

I wonder what Market Timer is up to these days. He and I were experimenting with (dying from??) leverage on the way down in 2008 and are near the same age as far as I can tell. Interesting to see his change in philosophy over time when it comes to money, work, spending the portfolio etc. Sounds lik...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12805

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27165

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

When you are 35 you have relatively long time horizons coupled with relatively small portfolios compared to older investors like me at age 58. In theory, your pain from loss ought to be a lot less than mine since the dollar amounts of loss for you will be a lot smaller than for me. In fact, it does...
by Snowjob
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?
Replies: 71
Views: 4031

Re: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?

This is a function of cost of living in the area and salary. I'm in a higher cost of living area (not SF, NYC but certainly higher than most parts of the country) I'm about 15%
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12805

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

A milestone of sorts... Now two full years into retirement, and have had the good fortune of strong market tailwinds since then. Stepping out of the accumulation phase, with the comfort and security of a monthly paycheck, and into the distribution phase, with the shuddering realization that the see...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 25 Year Old Retiring Extremely Early-Domestic Wellesley or Half Global, Half Domestic Wellesley Better for my Bonds?
Replies: 55
Views: 6805

Re: 25 Year Old Retiring Extremely Early-Domestic Wellesley or Half Global, Half Domestic Wellesley Better for my Bonds?

A place to start would be defining "safer." Is "safer" the more diversified position that is closer to global equity distribution? In that case, a 50/50 domestic/international split may make sense. Is "safer" the allocation with the highest past performance? In that case, a higher domestic tilt wou...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 226
Views: 27165

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

A nice problem to have but if I was 35 years old, I would simply be enjoying the ride. At 58, it seems to be like that laurel hedge growing out of control, a big chore to maintain. This is because I am concerned about controlling my risk as I get older. Ah to be young again! How are other older inv...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?
Replies: 14
Views: 935

Re: Why not put part of your Efund into total market ETF?

Because its an insurance policy. It costs you, but your covered if you need it. When your portfolio grows large enough your emergency fund is no longer needed and it should be just part of your asset allocation. But those first 5 years or however long it takes of working 10 years, it really should b...
by Snowjob
Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here
Replies: 182
Views: 12805

Re: Post your Financial Milestone Announcements Here

Wow congrats!! I feel like it was just 7 or 8 years ago you got out of residency. I think one thing that I've learned more than anything else in the last 10 years when it comes to milestones, net worth and goal posts is that getting a great job matters a LOT. You can certainly save and bank on the s...
by Snowjob
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 125
Views: 10415

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

I believe that the CAPE is currently around 33.27; apart from that, what is there to "believe"? The US equity market is going to be disappointing relative to what ? Bitcoin? :D For the record I never bought any, and I am reminded of this blunder by people on Facebook and at work just about every da...
by Snowjob
Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early Retirement Planning Strategy
Replies: 16
Views: 2342

Re: Early Retirement Planning Strategy

I don't think there is much different you can do. As a single person I model for a range of scenarios anywhere from early retirement to a more normal one if end up with kids etc. Ultimately your tools are still the same, basically stocks and bonds. So while I may model for different scenarios, there...
by Snowjob
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybrid Portfolio - Half Target-Date / Half 3-Fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 533

Re: Hybrid Portfolio - Half Target-Date / Half 3-Fund?

You know I've actually moved more toward a hybrid approach myself. Taxable and Roth are 100% equity 401k is mostly target date. I'm letting the 401k increase my bond allocation over time while letting the stock in my Roth and 401k run as much as they can. I effectively don't re balance now. Every on...
by Snowjob
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?
Replies: 20
Views: 1645

Re: Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold?

Stock prices -- Are they only dependent on how much people are willing to pay and how much they are willing to hold? What determines whether stock prices go up or down? Is it solely supply and demand for the stocks? Doesn't that make all stocks extremely volatile? Basically, yes. Are stock prices b...
by Snowjob
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds
Replies: 97
Views: 12075

Re: Feels dumb to hold bonds - Currently 70% Stocks 30% Bonds

I've always held to the Ben Graham boundaries of no more than 75% equity, no less than 25% equity -- even when using leverage. That said it would have been wonderful to go all the way back to 2009 and say nope, all in. But I didn't. Frankly I don't think I could have. When people are losing their jo...
by Snowjob
Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations
Replies: 44
Views: 3063

Re: Hotel $50-500/night Expectations

50$ - Bedbugs, hidden cameras, a break in, general uncleaniness
100-200 - A good night sleep, peace of mind
300+ - Regret, a hole in my wallet, hoping work paid for it :D
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 176
Views: 5564

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

If you have $100k in mutual funds, your broker will treat that as $50k in cash for margin purposes. So, without forcing you to sell the mutual funds, they'll pretend you have $50k in cash in your margin account, which you can use to buy $167k (50/0.3) of SPY. So which is more Bogle-heady for Decemb...
by Snowjob
Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Google Home vs Sonos
Replies: 0
Views: 237

Google Home vs Sonos

I saw a note out that the new google home Max is coming out. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/google-home-max-now-available-for-purchase.html Anyone use the google home speakers for a sound system? I have some Sonos products right now and enjoy them, but not being able to stream YouTube is a big pain...
by Snowjob
Sun Dec 03, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 184
Views: 13409

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

Just another form of -- live off the dividends and interest strategy just a lower (stock selection) level. Makes sense to me.
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond fund in a ROTH
Replies: 29
Views: 3100

Re: Bond fund in a ROTH

I've always been a stock in the Roth person, but if you take market timing and valuations aside, many of the experts here will tell you to put bonds in a Roth. One part of the theory is that if equities fall, your tax liability to the government also does but in a Roth you already paid your taxes so...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?
Replies: 27
Views: 2366

Re: What do people mean when they say their SWR is X% or they have X times expenses?

I've come to conceptualize my retirement portfolio using a bit of mental accounting (yes I know, frowned upon). If you have certain periods of your life that will be covered by Soc Sec, pension or a deferred annuity and you know the value of those, I think it can be beneficial separate your portfoli...
by Snowjob
Thu Nov 09, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"
Replies: 37
Views: 5694

Re: "The small-cap effect really has failed to materialize"

Eyeballing that chart, looks like if you exclude 1968-1975 instead, you'll get an effect that's twice as big. Seems the effect was negative for a few years, and then strongly positive for a few years. I always wonder why people exclude certain really good or really periods and they say but look, if...
by Snowjob
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: wellington fund ( VWELX )
Replies: 24
Views: 2873

Re: wellington fund ( VWELX )

Yep, it could be all downhill from here. Seriously. It is amusing how much love for W & W there is given all the index fund aficionados that hang out here. People like the set it and forget it approach and I suspect the 2/3s stock 1/3 bond allocation just feels right to people. these predate a lot ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Lifestyle Creep
Replies: 142
Views: 12933

Re: Lifestyle Creep

If you live happily on $80k, you need $1 million to maintain that lifestyle. If you let your lifestyle creep up to $120k a year, not only are you saving less each year, but now you need $3 million instead of $2 million. For a second, I was very happy with the thought of able to have $80K lifestyle ...