Search found 1200 matches

by Snowjob
Thu Dec 01, 2016 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At 10x, how long before I reach 25x?
Replies: 18
Views: 3591

Re: At 10x, how long before I reach 25x?

All depends on your inputs -- I like to use 3% equity / 0% bond as I am a bit of a pessimist. Which at your proportions would be effectively a 2% real yield plus contributions. That works out to be ~11 years under the 1x a year savings plan vs ~18 years under the .5x plan. Change that to 4% equity /...
by Snowjob
Thu Dec 01, 2016 4:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle
Replies: 149
Views: 11113

Re: Paul Merriman challenges John Bogle

... There's another thing, too. I'm about 2/3rds of the way through Charles Geisst's Wall Street: A History: From Its Beginnings to the Fall of Enron, and I'm becoming more and more and more convinced that modeling financial data in terms of time series and statistical processes is just too silly t...
by Snowjob
Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9963

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

B0bL0blawsLawBl0g wrote:...Part of it is anxiety that we need to safeguard what we have built up....


And that is not something entirely under our control =O
by Snowjob
Wed Nov 30, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Feeling like you've "made it"
Replies: 107
Views: 9963

Re: Feeling like you've "made it"

Similar age (early / mid 30s) and i've gone through a few stages Early 20's: starting to save early, thinking I was ahead of the game, very (optomistic) Late 20's: realizing its a terribly long slog and inflation is keeps moving the goal posts (depressed) Early 30's: achieved enough wealth to feel c...
by Snowjob
Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 but too much cash
Replies: 6
Views: 1149

Re: 50/50 but too much cash

4% withdrawal rate. One home but in a different location. I was planning on selling current home and buying new home in new location. 4% withdrawal rate may be too aggressive at age 50 depending on the size of the portfolio. I suspect that is the initial, and would be reduced once SS or a pension o...
by Snowjob
Tue Nov 29, 2016 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 50/50 but too much cash
Replies: 6
Views: 1149

Re: 50/50 but too much cash

I think the hard part for me is not understanding the other potential moving pieces -- Will you be keeping both houses and renting one? Just snowbirding perhaps? Having two homes has its expenses, so the differences between 1 and 2 abodes certainly affects things -- would this be and up-scaling, whe...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 05, 2016 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs Buybacks & Index Weights
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Re: Dividends vs Buybacks & Index Weights

Ah I guess I confused myself -

I was thinking about the alternative of holding the stock directly vs an index fund and forgot that the fund would need reduce its holdings, otherwise It would be an increasingly overweight position. :oops:
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 05, 2016 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs Buybacks & Index Weights
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Dividends vs Buybacks & Index Weights

Simple Example Imagine an index representing just 2 companies. Same industry, same economics, same market share, growth profile etc etc. Each year the companies earn 10% on assets: The full 10% of the return goes to reinvestment in the business. As investors in this index our two stock index stays e...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Secrets of the S&P500
Replies: 10
Views: 2161

Re: Secrets of the S&P500

To much demand for equity and not enough of it to go around for some of these companies as far as market makers are concerned. If it was true market cap, wouldn't the extra demand drive up the equity prices enough to eventually force more supply to leave insiders hands and hit the market? I think wh...
by Snowjob
Sat Nov 05, 2016 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to retire early (in your 30s or 40s)?
Replies: 173
Views: 20916

Re: How to retire early (in your 30s or 40s)?

3) Children. This (or these) will almost certainly be the absolute most expensive decision you will make . I have two, and MAN they are expensive. If you count all the expenses from conception to graduation... throw in the bigger house and car needed to accommodate them, extra curricular activities...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache donates $100k to charity, writes about effective altruism
Replies: 100
Views: 10016

Re: Mr. Money Mustache donates $100k to charity, writes about effective altruism

Just to put things in perspective if you plan do do something similar - Mr Money Mustasche makes over $400k per year from advertisements on his websites alone. It's in a New Yorker article from earlier this year. Obviously he doesn't spend the vast majority of it given his thriftiness, but it does ...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US
Replies: 2
Views: 556

Re: Decline in number of publicly traded companies in US

Yeah I've always thought this was a problem. On one hand, I have no immediate solution. On the other hand, I think I am still early enough in the game where the lack of diversity across industries doesn't matter. Maybe in 50 years the make up of the index will be quite lacking.
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Years Of Expenses": Preferable To "% Of Portfolio" For Retirees' Fixed Income?
Replies: 39
Views: 2746

Re: "Years Of Expenses": Preferable To "% Of Portfolio" For Retirees' Fixed Income?

I plan on keeping X% to control risk, however I find it very comforting to just divide that number by (expected expenses less 50% of equity dividends) to see how deep of a recession I could probably ride out. Ultimately if I had way more than I needed I would adopt a liability matching portfolio wit...
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 21, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 61 yo in all stocks - tone this down & life annuity choice...
Replies: 19
Views: 2421

Re: 61 yo in all stocks - tone this down & life annuity choice...

Good advice from everyone so far -- I am curious if you have always worked that your small retail business. With that wage profile I think you have down an outstanding job preparing for retirement. What got you into the duplex? That looks like it was/is a great driver of your wealth and current inco...
by Snowjob
Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Laid off at 40 - What to do?
Replies: 42
Views: 6601

Re: Laid off at 40 - What to do?

I don't understand why you are not retired or very close to it right now.. Because his wife doesn't want him to be retired. She doesn't think it is "fair" for him to not work while she does. She uses socialization at the day care as the excuse. A very real factor to consider for some peop...
by Snowjob
Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 39 Years Old; 50/50 Asset Allocation Reasonable?
Replies: 19
Views: 1867

Re: 39 Years Old; 50/50 Asset Allocation Reasonable?

I think your risk comes far more from whether or not that $50k estimate of spending will really stand than from what the asset allocation is in your retirement portfolio. Of course a difference is that you cannot control the market but you can control what you spend, pending some possible event bey...
by Snowjob
Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Review
Replies: 44
Views: 6896

Re: Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Review

I use it for my taxable index. no capital gains ever and I can tweak portfolio tilts as needed in the roth or 401k
by Snowjob
Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Aging and Spending
Replies: 54
Views: 9080

Re: Aging and Spending

My parents are now in their early 70's and one of them does not wish to travel much anymore among other things. While very active they have become less adventurous. Additionally, physical ailments have crept in. These will generally put a cap on certain entertainment items (big vacations, ski trips ...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 29, 2016 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3304

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

Thanks for all the great feedback. So much meat on the bone from you guys ... I'm super impressed with the minds paying attention to this forum. ---------UPDATED AA--------- PROCESS: Move cash into these allocations at rate of 30K/quarter, rebalancing by adding rather than selling. Do this for 8-10...
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 29, 2016 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List
Replies: 275
Views: 34719

Re: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List

Living in California, instead of one of those cheap knock-off states people try to talk themselves into! There are only two types of people in this world. People who live in New York and those who wish they could live in New York. I agree. Ithaca NY is awesome. I thought Ithaca was gorge ous =P
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Early Retirement/Mobile Lifestyle
Replies: 24
Views: 2305

Re: Early Retirement/Mobile Lifestyle

Might I ask how old you are and what your interests are?

I think this is a very different question depending on that age and desired activities etc. I am in my early 30's and would not be looking at something remotely close to this for some time but its an interesting thought exercise.
by Snowjob
Thu Sep 29, 2016 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Savings rate and sequence of returns risk
Replies: 8
Views: 831

Re: Savings rate and sequence of returns risk

He could be very well compensated and live a modest lifestyle. yes in this case your savings rate will protect you from any sequence risk. Not the asteroid extinction event, nuclear war or other such events but within the general accepted things we can plan for, yes your fine. If it was up to me I w...
by Snowjob
Wed Sep 28, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?
Replies: 58
Views: 3304

Re: Anyone feel like ripping this asset allocation to shreds?

I'm generally not a fan of allocations less than 10% cause they wont do much unless they are levered like options / futures. Id consolidate to less positions for starters. If you need to have the gold why not do 40% stock / 40% bond / 20% gold? -- seems simpler. Or to take it a step further if infla...
by Snowjob
Sat Sep 24, 2016 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anybody here make 70K or under
Replies: 30
Views: 5980

Re: Anybody here make 70K or under

Made under that for most of my life so far and I've managed to just fine -- need to make it a priority though.
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List
Replies: 275
Views: 34719

Re: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List

taking notes: would appreciate brand suggestions on the lightweight backpacking gear and polarized sunglasses. Some things that I cant go without. Backpack - Osprey Exos 58, super light weight and comfortable. probably available at REI or any quality outdoor's store as Osprey is huge leader in the ...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 20, 2016 6:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you view money over and above your number?
Replies: 47
Views: 4690

Re: How do you view money over and above your number?

A contrarian view (to most that have been posted this far). I would try to enjoy some of it during my first ten years of retirement. Too many posts engage in hand-wringing about outliving retirement savings. Too few talk about taking advantage of the opening years of retirement--while one still has...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 19, 2016 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDIGX surrogate [Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: VDIGX surrogate

With Wellesley the difference on the stock component I believe is they screen for higher yielding companies where VDIGX is looking for dividend growers and the yields are much smaller, I have not run a x-ray but I would guess there is not a monstrous amount of overlap. Yeah if you don't feel like po...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The states we won't buy munis from, update
Replies: 50
Views: 6069

Re: The states we won't buy munis from, update

Thought enough people would be interested in this topic that didn't want it to get lost in the other thread, so thought would post it as separate piece. It's an update on what we buy given that the list has not only expanded but has been bifurcated. The following are the states we won't buy bonds f...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDIGX surrogate [Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: VDIGX surrogate

Also, might I ask what your portfolio looks like now? Interesting to look back and see the decision process in 2011 when it appears you were convinced to pay off the mortgage -- Did you use cash or sell stock to do so? If you used cash did you start saving again to build up your fixed income or are ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VDIGX surrogate [Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund]
Replies: 13
Views: 733

Re: VDIGX surrogate

I actually find the appeal of the VDIGX in that its actively managed, and not mechanical about picking dividend payers. So honestly I would say there is no good substitute in vanguard's fund lineup. That said, its not a critical component of a retirement portfolio as a total stock market fund would ...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List
Replies: 275
Views: 34719

Re: The Bogleheads' "100 Things Worth Every Penny" List

I'm sure there will a certain post about a quality watch here at some point...

Assume Bonfire is post 6 and 7

8.) light-weight backpacking gear. It will cost you but saving those ounces and space is worth every penny!
by Snowjob
Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 24 year old new dividend portfolio
Replies: 151
Views: 8142

Re: 24 year old new dividend portfolio

I love dividends, but I don't recommended a myopic focus on dividend for ones portfolio -- your better off with the broad indices. Now I do run a portion of my portfolio from time to time as a collection of individual stocks bonds etc. In those instances, management's philosophy on the return of cap...
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"
Replies: 35
Views: 6460

Re: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"

Many excellent responses here. FWIW, the "stopping saving after age 30" part is not at all something I would plan on regardless. I love my work. The purpose of the question was more-so to get a concrete idea on savings goals, as up to this point I have mostly viewed it as a nebulous "...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53801

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

For me ideally, I would like to see a low cost index fund for inflation bonds that provided cash flow from dividends each month. How would they pass on the tax from the inflation adjustment that you would be required to pay in a taxable account tho? -- well not exactly passing on the tax but the ta...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 12, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS - Did you give up?
Replies: 445
Views: 53801

Re: TIPS - Did you give up?

For me ideally, I would like to see a low cost index fund for inflation bonds that provided cash flow from dividends each month. How would they pass on the tax from the inflation adjustment that you would be required to pay in a taxable account tho? -- well not exactly passing on the tax but the ta...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 12, 2016 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"
Replies: 35
Views: 6460

Re: How much saved at 30 to be "done saving"

I hadn't looked at investing targets this way in a long while so I just ran some numbers for my own situation. I'm mid 30's and used a 2% growth, no pension and modest social security. I came up with roughly the following for multiples of expense for two scenarios, 1 where I stop working completely ...
by Snowjob
Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown
Replies: 62
Views: 8937

Re: Wall St. Nuclear Meltdown

A blip on the radar -- but with such a tight range over the last 40 trading days, it lets the writers jump onto something to fill the pages.
by Snowjob
Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else experiencing number drift
Replies: 51
Views: 6260

Re: Anyone else experiencing number drift

After reading over and over again in threads this weekend how returns over the next 10 years will be somewhere between minuscule and negative. Apparently 2.5% is the new 4%. It has got me thinking I need to bump my original number by 78.57%. I was wondering if BH are experiencing number drift. Anyo...
by Snowjob
Mon Sep 05, 2016 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stopped at the Crossroads
Replies: 21
Views: 3160

Re: Stopped at the Crossroads

Yeah as others have said your pretty good on the go forward and better than many today -- especially the pension angle. May I ask what type of return the promise? I've seen some pensions where the contribution is a pittance and the actual payout is enormous. if the 6k a year you are putting in is sl...
by Snowjob
Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice
Replies: 205
Views: 23052

Re: $50M+ - Need a sounding board/advice

50 million. I'd probably do something like this -- 20 Million in Vanguards Total World Stock index (VT is the etf version) to maintain global equity exposure and never have any capital gains. 20 Million in Municipal Bonds - Split it up between 3-4 reputable advisers & have them select the bonds ...
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: "How Should Younger Investors Think About Social Security?"
Replies: 34
Views: 4351

Re: Morningstar: "How Should Younger Investors Think About Social Security?"

The only actionable element is what individuals can do. They can save more and plan for less from SS. How we save might also be actionable. As far as I know, the only current situation where the fed considers total net worth in means testing is for Medicaid (anybody, please correct me if I am wrong...
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary creates ETF
Replies: 45
Views: 5691

Re: Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary creates ETF

When people don't like someone they attack the individual instead of the idea its silly... getting back to the point. This seems to be at first glance (haven't done much digging) to be a subset of S&P 500 companies screened for some quality metrics, capped for weighting and requires constituents...
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxes -- Buying a car in Canada / live in US
Replies: 9
Views: 775

Re: Taxes -- Buying a car in Canada / live in US

Boooooooo one more of the 89023409234 reasons to leave this god forsaken state...
by Snowjob
Fri Aug 12, 2016 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Taxes -- Buying a car in Canada / live in US
Replies: 9
Views: 775

Taxes -- Buying a car in Canada / live in US

Ok, If I live in CT and buy a car in NH (no sales tax) I would still need to pay the full CT taxes when I registered the car in CT. If I bought the car in Utah I would pay the Utah tax of 4.7% and then the difference from the CT rate (6.3%) to the state of CT. If I bought the Car in California which...
by Snowjob
Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Websites - CNBC & Fox Business
Replies: 13
Views: 1363

Re: Websites - CNBC & Fox Business

I enjoy watching CNBC -- I've watched it for years and have found it to be a great news & entertainment source. If you can rationally separate fact from opinion then its fine. If your going to be easily swayed every time someone can opine or talk their book of business than watching anything cou...
by Snowjob
Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if dividends were reinvested according to share of total dividends paid instead of market cap?
Replies: 6
Views: 669

Re: What if dividends were reinvested according to share of total dividends paid instead of market cap?

An index fund has to manage its investment portolio to track the index. I would not think that means reinvesting dividends according to the cap wt. Where did you hear they do that? What he is saying is that the distributions you receive purchase more shares so you are reinvesting those proceeds in ...
by Snowjob
Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two types of Value?
Replies: 8
Views: 621

Re: Two types of Value?

In active management there are many different value styles (I think Marty Whitfield wrote a book?). Are you thinking of Marty Whitman, the Third Avenue guy? He must be 90 by now. I'm curious how his non publicly traded accounts have fared. He got into a bit of trouble with over exposure to hong kon...
by Snowjob
Sun Aug 07, 2016 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: et tu, Vanguard? Stock/Bond zig-zag myth
Replies: 58
Views: 4869

Re: et tu, Vanguard? Stock/Bond zig-zag myth

That's the part of the debate where longinvest and I stop communicating. I don't advocate replacing TBM with Intermediate Treasuries because as you note over the longer term the additional corporates in TBM will finally catch up and exceed the return from Treasures alone. What I suggest is to break...
by Snowjob
Sun Aug 07, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: et tu, Vanguard? Stock/Bond zig-zag myth
Replies: 58
Views: 4869

Re: et tu, Vanguard? Stock/Bond zig-zag myth

RE- the side debate your having, As I understand it the immediate reaction to buy government bonds provides for better re balancing during the equity crash. After this initial divergence in performance the corporate bonds begin to close the gap as the the safety premium shrinks with stabilization. ...
by Snowjob
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 8439

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

Personally, I see no reason to be afraid of moving 14% of the bond allocation into stocks that got 50% cheaper . If the investor is afraid that stocks could still drop another 50%, this means that he should have anticipated a possibility of stocks losing 75% of their value before the downturn and s...

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