Search found 1277 matches

by Snowjob
Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Age of Tech - Even in Emerging Markets
Replies: 13
Views: 1405

Re: The Age of Tech - Even in Emerging Markets

I think the geography is irrelevant and you are just seeing a new wave of businesses that are generally less capital intensive, and are very good and driving productivity across vast areas of the economy. Eventually when all the inefficiencies have been gained, costs wrung out of traditional busines...
by Snowjob
Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stop saving and start spending
Replies: 63
Views: 7432

Re: Stop saving and start spending

For those who are wondering about current expenses, we have a baseline expenditure of $60K a year, with an additional $20K for private school and $20K for kids classes/travel. So, it is a total of $100K a year. A big chunk of the expenses are tied to kids and I expect this to go away in our retirem...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Current Perspective on Global Growth
Replies: 24
Views: 1811

Re: A Current Perspective on Global Growth

And this is another reason why all "future" additions to my taxable account are in VT.

Own it all and hope for the best, diversification and simplicity all in one.
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6858

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

See Robert Gordon. Not sure he is entirely persuasive. I look around, and see some incredible technological changes going on. e.g. electric and autonomous vehicles. Maybe the impacts just haven't hit yet. Agree running hygenic water (ie sewers), the steam train & the telegraph are as big change...
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6858

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Inflation is driven by a combination of the supply and velocity of money. To many things affecting the velocity right now, some that jump out at me are - Aging populations that consume less as discussed above - New Technology (think efficiency, comiditizers, sharing etc) which is a deflator over tim...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to divide investments for early retirement
Replies: 16
Views: 2013

Re: How to divide investments for early retirement

Retiring early is difficult. In addition to lower income without Social Security kicking in, you also have to worry about increased health expenses at a time that you may not have insurance. The "number" you need for early retirement goes up exponentially the longer you need the money to ...
by Snowjob
Tue May 30, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wellesley in taxable (early retirement)?
Replies: 17
Views: 2159

Re: Wellesley in taxable (early retirement)?

If your trying to minimize taxes what about vanguards tax managed balanced fund? 50/50 equity and munis, never paid out a CG. That's about as efficient as you can get with a balanced fund in taxable.
by Snowjob
Mon May 22, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Missed window for selling Fairholme Fund (FAIRX)?
Replies: 35
Views: 1977

Re: Missed window for selling Fairholme Fund (FAIRX)?

But one question about it: if we know that a certain change will be positive for a fund (in this case, Fannie and Freddie being "re-privatized") and that it will happen at some point in the future, is that as speculative as just hoping that a fund will increase in value? see my post *edit...
by Snowjob
Mon May 22, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Missed window for selling Fairholme Fund (FAIRX)?
Replies: 35
Views: 1977

Re: Missed window for selling Fairholme Fund (FAIRX)?

This fund was always so concentrated that I never understood why someone would pay the 1% expense ratio instead of just allocating some funds to the top 5 holdings which were typically around 50% (or more even??) of the funds assets. I could care less about st. Joes, sears is dead as you say. The on...
by Snowjob
Mon May 22, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Net worth is overrated
Replies: 76
Views: 9377

Re: Net worth is overrated

Maybe we should measure retirement cashflows instead SS + Pension + SPIA + (Investments /25) That would be an apples to apples measuring stick. Considering I'm looking at a SS haircut and no pension it's going to be a really long uphill slog... the comparable net worth figures to older folks who hav...
by Snowjob
Mon May 22, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present value of COLA pension
Replies: 20
Views: 1703

Re: Present value of COLA pension

Also depends on when it is accessible (could be worth a lot more!) then you would need to discount that back to your age today. In any case, had I understood the present value of money 15 years ago I (and I expect many) would have made different employment choices ex: Start at 50k in the private sec...
by Snowjob
Sat May 20, 2017 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1929

Re: Demand for stocks to high? (investor behavior)

If you are worried, your stock allocation is too high. I have no idea whether a 50% drop will happen tomorrow or ten years from now, but it certainly will happen at some point. If you can't absorb that risk you shouldn't be playing. Quite the opposite. As an accumulator, I'm more frustrated that el...
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1929

Re: Demand for stocks to high? (investor behavior)

I don't think any of these point to high demand for stocks. Why does it matter if people prefer individual stocks or passive funds? Demand is calculated in aggregate. You other items may point to complacency. 2 better lines of though are "Secular Stagnation" and "New Normal". Bo...
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)
Replies: 20
Views: 1929

Demand for stocks too high? (investor behavior)

Anyone else worried about the demand for stocks? - People don't need to buy or follow individual names, indexing is more prevalent today - Buying the dip has been a rewarded behavior for many years now - 8 years into a recovery - The great recession (which was a traumatic experience), had a short re...
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 7853

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

...Yes, I always held a significant portion of bonds. When I was in my 30s I was holding a 50/50 stocks and bonds for several years. If I had to do it again, I would have been about 80/20, but it was all part of the learning process. Today I am 60/40 and plan to stay there for quite a while, if not...
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do stocks always go up long term?
Replies: 56
Views: 4605

Re: Do stocks always go up long term?

no, but the world is gambling that they will. if they don't, we are all largely screwed, and you better be able to adapt
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces - new tools for safe withdrawl rates
Replies: 3
Views: 1027

Re: Kitces - new tools for safe withdrawl rates

That's a pretty neat chart. I'd like it better, though, if they plotted everything in real (inflation-corrected) terms, rather than plotting everything in nominal terms. Without inflation correction, it's not obvious why the BusinessWeek story was called entitled "The Death of Equities." ...
by Snowjob
Fri May 19, 2017 6:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Milestone and not peeking. . .
Replies: 66
Views: 7853

Re: Milestone and not peeking. . .

Congrats! I always like reading your posts debating this or that allocation, I think they are very relocatable to most people myself included. If I recall you have settled on the balanced fund as a 1 stop shop -- have you always held a significant number of bonds? Love hearing about the posters who ...
by Snowjob
Wed May 17, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones
Replies: 143
Views: 34781

Re: Time to reach 1M and 2M milestones

...I just went to the S&P return since March 2009 (the low) and US equities returned 17.45% a year (with div's reinvested). So if you escaped the mess with $500k in US equities, it would be worth approx $2M without contributing a dime and letting it ride/compound... The trick is having 500k in ...
by Snowjob
Wed May 10, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All-in-one Plus strategy
Replies: 65
Views: 3064

Re: All-in-one Plus strategy

NiceUnparticularMan, There are 3 approaches: A) Core fund only B) Core plus stock C) Core plus bond Klagfool, I actually had a similar thought [your option B] yesterday after the discussions in the thread below. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=218461&newpost=3363483&am...
by Snowjob
Wed May 10, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9457

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

...I don't need to decide that now, but I think if after a year or two into retirement it becomes clear we have "won the game" (we appear to have plenty to provide for basic needs, PLUS a reserve against future basic needs including as involving relatives, PLUS enough extra to give us ple...
by Snowjob
Wed May 10, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 72
Views: 9457

Re: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

... And background research suggests this could in fact lead to a lot less anxiety and danger of adverse changes to plan (studies have specifically looked at less frequent information to combat these effects, and it appears to work quite well on average).... ... And yet I think there is a very good...
by Snowjob
Sat May 06, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Jambalaya in New Orleans??
Replies: 2
Views: 324

Best Jambalaya in New Orleans??

Wrapping up some time in the city and looking for some good jambalaya before I head home. Any suggestions?
by Snowjob
Sun Apr 30, 2017 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dealing with regret
Replies: 102
Views: 8989

Re: Dealing with regret

...Every time I think about selling out at the bottom and missing the subsequent bull run, I feel nauseous. It's been eating away at me for years, coming to a head recently, where I'm actually losing my appetite and my ability to sleep. I know I set myself back terribly and plan to put much more aw...
by Snowjob
Fri Apr 28, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 57
Views: 13260

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

...One thing I kept noticing was that the dividend yield of many of my stocks was higher than the yield in the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF. My stocks have a good shot of creating an income stream from dividends that grows faster than inflation. As I near retirement, an inflation-adjusted income ...
by Snowjob
Sun Apr 23, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6978

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

For all the theory that the physiological link to gold as money will die over time with the youth in this country post, it is interesting to come back to this. If the world eventually loses interest it would be the central banks that are on the hook for the biggest losses right? You have to be care...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6978

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

...I find it interesting that the U.S. and Germany are the 2 largest holders of the metal... For all the theory that the physiological link to gold as money will die over time with the youth in this country post, it is interesting to come back to this. If the world eventually loses interest it woul...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 18, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3576

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

I do recall reading one of Bill Gross' investor letters some years ago (probably around the time of the break with PIMCO) called man in the mirror where he does comptemplate how much of his success was just simply dumb luck of being on the right side of a 30 year bull market. :beer
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS for younger retiree
Replies: 2
Views: 393

Re: TIPS for younger retiree

I'm really glad you posted this because I was about to post a hypothetical situation to which you have basically described. Essentially, how much inflation insurance should I buy given a substantial time gap between early retirement (49) and Social security (70) Given that I had not planned on buyin...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?
Replies: 121
Views: 6978

Re: Is there any reason a buy-and-hold investor would buy gold?

I struggle with the idea of it. It certainly would be an insurance policy of sorts, maybe 3-4% of the portfolio. In reality I am willing to bank that the US does not collapse in my life time. if so that gold will still be relatively useless anyway imo. Like most people I look at the early 1970's and...
by Snowjob
Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do you save?
Replies: 31
Views: 2192

Re: Why do you save?

I suppose the specific goal (function of portfolio size etc) changes over time but the purpose of my savings is to replace income when sufficient employment is no longer attenable. No one really knows when that will be and considering risk of detachment from the workforce increases exponentially as ...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When need and want take different paths.......
Replies: 30
Views: 2439

Re: When need and want take different paths.......

...You don't need it, you don't drive much anymore (5K annual)... Unless you are talking about a classic car, this actually would be a scenario where a lease makes sense. Think of it as an expensive 3 year rental trial period. If you really like it then you can buy it knowing you will be satisfied....
by Snowjob
Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing Stock/Bonds ratio based on long term technical analysis?
Replies: 6
Views: 670

Re: Rebalancing Stock/Bonds ratio based on long term technical analysis?

Someone on this forum did that successfully years ago but I don't recall their name. They did retire early from it. I supposed during their stretch it worked out great. I would be scared to try it and end up being wrong, I'm sure there are many examples of it not working out also.
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to slow down.
Replies: 33
Views: 5445

Re: When to slow down.

You already did the biggies... Out of Debt, Started an EF.. Started a Roth.. I would continue (to the extent that there is no strain on your relationship) until you end up with a year's expenses in the emergency fund. After that I'd scale back to one job and re-prioritize. Congrats on digging out qu...
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?
Replies: 34
Views: 3686

Re: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?

...You had individual stock risk.... Yep, if you get rid of individual stocks / bonds / options / margin / market timing etc. you take market risk and get market returns. At that point your place in the future economic food chain becomes based on your savings rate. Taking additional risk opens you ...
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?
Replies: 34
Views: 3686

Re: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?

BW1985 wrote:
Snowjob wrote:...
Ever since I've adopted bonehead ways my returns are absolutely lower, but I guess I'm taking less risk.

...
Lol. Bonehead ways


Autocorrect? whoops lol
by Snowjob
Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 33 yr old Fed wants to be a boglehead
Replies: 23
Views: 2448

Re: 33 yr old Fed wants to be a boglehead

1.) How much do you expect from your pension / I assume its COLA? 2.) How much do you expect in retirement? My gut tells me that the pension + SS etc will cover the vast majority of your needs, so don't feel bad about having a smaller portfolio. you have 17 years to retirement and I would suggest fo...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?
Replies: 34
Views: 3686

Re: When a company is bought out, what happens to the stock (like with Panera/Krispy Kreme)?

Hmmm...$315/share ? I remember researching them, while still in STL (they were based there-- St. Louis Bread Company) when they were $8 a stub :shock: Didn't pull the trigger-- didn't expect the level of growth that they had; expected more competition leading to lower ROI...somehow they're still ge...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Low-earners- What is your profession?
Replies: 262
Views: 25184

Re: Low-earners- What is your profession?

...We are in our 50's now and have ground, scratched, clawed, worked our way up to finally bump over the $100K hurdle as I guess we have now hit our "peak earning years". Although it's barely over $100K. The timing of reaching that mark happened to be right when we had two kids in college...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluating a margin investment
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Evaluating a margin investment

... There are a million variables, if you could be about 50x more specific we could comment rationally. What would you need to know? I'm not looking to discuss my investment in public, I just want to have a tool to see how well/bad I did. Thank you. Well honestly if this is after the fact you shoul...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Enjoying the journey to retirement
Replies: 23
Views: 2464

Re: Enjoying the journey to retirement

I think its because you are prioritizing all of these fun things in life instead of work. (and the healthy food & exercise is actually a really good boost too)
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluating a margin investment
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Evaluating a margin investment

David Jay wrote:
...I thought my comment was rational.

Cynical, but rational... :wink:


LOL... well I suppose that could be the case :D
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?
Replies: 55
Views: 6901

Re: Got my second comma -- what is this anticlimactic feeling?

A mild case of impostor syndrome? That would totally be me if I were a high achiever, so it cant be me.. right wait... but yeah I'm totally of this psychological mind set regardless of my achievements or abilities in anyone else's mind. When I crossed the two comma mark in my early 30's despite a m...
by Snowjob
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Evaluating a margin investment
Replies: 14
Views: 793

Re: Evaluating a margin investment

Your question is fairly vague. Its kind of like saying -- does anyone know how to procure transit to my place of employment. There are a million variables, if you could be about 50x more specific we could comment rationally.
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's Skating Where Puck Was and Factor Investing
Replies: 11
Views: 1552

Re: Bernstein's Skating Where Puck Was and Factor Investing

The older I get the less I want to deviate from the market cap weighting -- own everything in part for simplicy and in part for the reasons you stated. I do have an allocation to "quality" which becomes a progressively smaller as I increase my pure market cap weighted exposure over time.
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time for TIPS?
Replies: 13
Views: 2126

Re: Is it time for TIPS?

...I allocate a portion of my bonds to TIPS, maybe 15% or so of my bond portfolio. Given your statement that it took equity 10 years to get its inflation adjustment (I would guess bonds took quite a while as well) do you think 15% of your bond % is enough? I mean clearly it must be or you would hav...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Designing Your "Glide Path"
Replies: 25
Views: 3312

Re: "Designing Your "Glide Path"

Mine will be of increasing equity -- (though I guess a smile would be more like it) I plan on replacing a large portion of portfolio withdrawals at 70 with an SPIA & Social Security, then again in my 80's via a deferred annuity. Over my life span I'll probably go from about 75/25 in my early yea...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My retirement funding strategy - for comments please
Replies: 10
Views: 1438

Re: My retirement funding strategy - for comments please

Having a large gap between spouses age wise is an interesting dynamic. Not to side track it to much, but if your younger spouse worked and had accumulated the same social security benefit would that change the decision? what if the younger spouse was very successful and was entitled to a larger bene...
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?
Replies: 57
Views: 6698

Re: What's your strategy for withdrawing funds in Retirement ?

Heavily withdraw my 401k between 5x->70.

At the age of 70, convert what is left in the 401k to an inflation indexed SPIA.

Taxable account will be left to the kids for step up basis, If I don't have kids then it will be given to charity.
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 19, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?
Replies: 133
Views: 16854

Re: What % of your income have you converted to wealth?

4 years later still 58%. Pleased with net worth progression but 4 peak earnings years for both of us and weak international equity performance (we are global market cap weighted) kept the wealth to cumulative income ratio in check. College costs wrapped up in 2016 - whew...... I don't recall where ...

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