Search found 1151 matches

by Snowjob
Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7560

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

Personally, I see no reason to be afraid of moving 14% of the bond allocation into stocks that got 50% cheaper . If the investor is afraid that stocks could still drop another 50%, this means that he should have anticipated a possibility of stocks losing 75% of their value before the downturn and s...
by Snowjob
Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49685

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

What a walk down memory lane. I remember reading this nearly a decade ago (wow its been that long????) Wow, I remember the 08-09 crash like it was yesterday. Time sure flies. This thread brought a smile to my face seeing the names of posters I haven't seen for years. The forum definitely helped me ...
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this
Replies: 211
Views: 49685

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

What a walk down memory lane. I remember reading this nearly a decade ago (wow its been that long????)
by Snowjob
Mon Jul 11, 2016 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %
Replies: 107
Views: 7560

Re: Maintaining 3-10 yrs expenses in fixed income in retirement rather than set %

I don't get it. Unless the portfolio is otherwise 100% stocks, why would a person have to sell stocks to withdraw money during a stock market decline. One would either sell bonds to withdraw money and buy stocks or just sell bonds to withdraw money. Is the contention here that putting this large am...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 05, 2016 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off dividends/interest in retiremeht
Replies: 60
Views: 6505

Re: Living off dividends/interest in retiremeht

.... After accounting for SS and pensions, i have been withdrawing from my portfolio the equivalent of about 2.5% annually and do not expect that to increase in the future....? So if your worried about only covering about 2.2% in dividends and interest out of the 2.5% withdrawal rate and this reall...
by Snowjob
Tue Jul 05, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sentra or Corolla?
Replies: 37
Views: 2594

Re: Sentra or Corolla?

Getting rid of my Nissan Sentra in a few months when I crack 300,000 miles. I bought it new in 2005 and it has been an absolute gem. Nothing but a cam shaft sensor and rust on the muffler/tailpipe has every gone wrong with the car. And I barely do anything to them, but an occasional very late oil ch...
by Snowjob
Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The G.I. Joe Fallacy
Replies: 29
Views: 4719

Re: The G.I. Joe Fallacy

Child of the 80's got the reference -- actually my name is derived from a Gi Joe action figure I had as a little kid. Sure it was a cheesy tag line, but with in the context of their discussion (usually public safety related tip aimed at little kids) knowing something very well could be half the batt...
by Snowjob
Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Return expectations for the next 10 years
Replies: 91
Views: 6032

Re: Return expectations for the next 10 years

0-2% real return for US equities unless the endpoint 10 years from now is during a panic sell off then obviously negative =)
by Snowjob
Sat Jun 11, 2016 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets
Replies: 49
Views: 4574

Re: Inevesting Mistakes or Regrets

looking at individual securities you can monday morning quarterback a thousand moves that would have optimized your outcome. However there are two big ones that are on a more general basis. First, start earlier -- who wouldn't put that on the top of their list. Second, do thorough independent resear...
by Snowjob
Fri Jun 10, 2016 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sonos Home Theater Surround Sound
Replies: 9
Views: 560

Re: Sonos Home Theater Surround Sound

I have a Sonos system, its simple to set up, easy to use and the quality is great for my ears. If you are an aficionado I'm sure there are much better products but I suspect that for 90% of people these will sound great. My only complaint -- and this is a big one -- is that it does NOT stream you tu...
by Snowjob
Wed Jun 08, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement by Michael Kitces
Replies: 6
Views: 1200

Re: The Four Phases of Saving and Investing for Retirement by Michael Kitces

Save, simplify, save and spend. 4 phases Sometimes I tend to think Kitces publishes just to ensure his name is on the Yahoo and Google trending list. Information overload can be too much, there is nothing new when it comes to saving or investing basics that can not be found on the wiki. Similar tho...
by Snowjob
Tue Jun 07, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are your friends saying about you?
Replies: 127
Views: 11135

Re: What are your friends saying about you?

I've been told my style (dress) is distinctly "Hobo"

Given that they also know I'm fond of investing another quipped "____ probably has more money that god"

Well I'm not even close to the second and slowly but surely trying to work on the first :wink:
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 06, 2016 12:47 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: D Day 72 years ago...
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: D Day 72 years ago...

.... We had a completely inane and wrongheaded thesis that you could firebomb an enemy's cities into destroying their will to resist.. Clearly you are well versed in WWII history, certainly more than me. Using the above line of logic, are you suggesting that the A-Bomb's in Japan strengthened their...
by Snowjob
Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Secular Stagnation - How to invest?
Replies: 22
Views: 1993

Re: Secular Stagnation - How to invest?

We are basing our financial decisions on the most recent history of investing (last 100-200 years) which is a small time frame relative to our planned life expediencies (I'm guess most of us use around 90 unless we have sever health issues). That is the same time period that took the world out of ag...
by Snowjob
Tue May 24, 2016 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Patience makes perfect
Replies: 7
Views: 1334

Re: Patience makes perfect

I have been a big fan of their philosophy and how they run their show for a long time. I think we can all learn from or appreciate this and not invest in the product -- as Taylor said its expensive.
by Snowjob
Tue May 24, 2016 5:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only 1/4 of stock held in taxable accounts
Replies: 13
Views: 1818

Re: Only 1/4 of stock held in taxable accounts

You need to remove the pensions, insurance co & foreign ownership percentages from the comparison. Looks more like 50/50 for the individual at large -- 50% taxable / 50% retirement/ira accounts. Of that the rich probably have a ton more in taxable and the middle and lower class probably have a l...
by Snowjob
Tue May 17, 2016 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?
Replies: 62
Views: 5182

Re: For those of you in the Accumulation Phase - How often do you check?

daily during volatile periods, no rarely during the boring times now.

Once you have a plan in place and you tested it out, not a lot to do during most days
by Snowjob
Mon May 02, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World ETF Taxable
Replies: 9
Views: 1048

Re: Total World ETF Taxable

Been slowly adding to this and it will at one point be my only taxable holding. Yes, complete simplicity. If I want to over weight US a bit I can have that bias in my roth or 401k.
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 21, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?
Replies: 88
Views: 8325

Re: Anyone Have a Near Retirement Strategy for Sequence of Return Risk?

.... In your early 70s purchase a real longevity annuity, aka an inflation-indexed delayed life annuity, that kicks in payments at age 85. The real longevity annuity should be equal to the annual income you were getting from the TIPS ladder that ceased at age 85. In other words, the real income fro...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces
Replies: 21
Views: 2236

Re: How do you measure which retirement income strategy is best? By Michael Kitces

I plan on transitioning my portfolio through all three of his options over time, effectively getting the best of each strategy. First 10-20 years -> balanced portfolio Remaining Years -> SPIA + All stock I would not use a longevity product, I would simply used my balanced portfolio during that time ...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem
Replies: 45
Views: 4254

Re: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem

Since I think that it's prudent to buy an inflation-linked annuity (and have already put my money where my mouth is by buying one), I also think that a problem with deferred annuities is that they are not inflation-linked during the deferral period. Agreed. The example has the hypothetical investor...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 11, 2016 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem
Replies: 45
Views: 4254

Re: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem

Sorry I must not have articulated this well. Scenario 1 - Age 65 Buy deferred Annuity to kick in at 85, spend the balance of my portfolio to 0. Scenario 2 - Spend 80% of my money from age 65 to 85, then annuitize the rest via SPIA at 85. ----- I the insurance company is giving you some sort of retu...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 11, 2016 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem
Replies: 45
Views: 4254

Re: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem

Sorry I must not have articulated this well. Scenario 1 - Age 65 Buy deferred Annuity to kick in at 85, spend the balance of my portfolio to 0. Scenario 2 - Spend 80% of my money from age 65 to 85, then annuitize the rest via SPIA at 85. ----- I the insurance company is giving you some sort of retur...
by Snowjob
Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem
Replies: 45
Views: 4254

Re: Annuities and longevity risk, analyzing the problem

At the bottom of the article you compared the use of an SPIA vs a Deferred Annuity and the Deferred Annuity allowed for a substantial increase in the spending power. It wasn't even close 33% increase vs 6% for the SPIA. My assumption is both contracts were purchased at 65. But what if I just buy an ...
by Snowjob
Thu Apr 07, 2016 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm Addicted [to investing and personal finance]
Replies: 64
Views: 9175

Re: I'm Addicted

Yes -- I've been there. You are being penny wise and pound foolish. All of the grand strategizing and out performance doesn't really mean much unless your portfolio already has a lot of zeroes behind it. After learning the basics (which you seem well past) you would be better off working on a great ...
by Snowjob
Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Financially, how have you done/doing vs. your parents?
Replies: 134
Views: 11340

Re: Financially, how have you done/doing vs. your parents?

Financially, better. But that due to better investing results and increased risk.

Career wise, parents were much more successful, so in the end it will probably even out.
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 22, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 8619

Re: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income

... the less you earn, the greater the percentage of income that Social Security will replace so someone making $20K/year likely wouldn't need to save $1M. Oh I completely agree, I am a huge proponent of consumption smoothing, wouldn't make any sense for minimum wage workers to try and amass that m...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 8619

Re: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income

....So I think this is doable for a lot of folks, sure not for a couple making minimum wage but you can tweak the assumptions a lot... I reckon you're going to need a lot more than minimum wage to make the $23k/year contributions. Even at $15/hour, that's just annual gross income of $31k/year. That...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Critique my Plan for Retirement Savings
Replies: 10
Views: 1641

Re: Please Critique my Plan for Retirement Savings

Ok I'll bite. Do you get social security? If so, I think your plan is conservative and I think you might be saving to much. You should probably save a little less and spend a little more. At the current rate your probably on target for something in the range of 80k a year in retirement income but ar...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income
Replies: 45
Views: 8619

Re: $1 Million+ Nest Egg From Less Than $100k Yearly Income

Traditional 401 k + IRA @ 23k per year = 29 years of compounding at 3% real returns (my assumptions for a heavy equity portfolio). So I think this is doable for a lot of folks, sure not for a couple making minimum wage but you can tweak the assumptions a lot (lower the contributions, extend the time...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 17, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Living off dividend income
Replies: 44
Views: 7096

Re: Living off dividend income

Considering the prices where they are today, its probably quite inefficient unless you are trying to leave a huge pile of money behind.
by Snowjob
Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

Theoretical question for you both. If we assume a person has a 10k roth (all stocks) and a 10k 401k (all Bond) it has been said that the true allocation is 10,000 Stock 7,500 Bond and 2,500 Tax accrual. But how does a tax accrual behave, I would argue the portfolio behaves as a 50/50? Doesn't the b...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $100k Milestone Reached! - 29y/o Portfolio Checkup
Replies: 22
Views: 3157

Re: $100k Milestone Reached! - 29y/o Portfolio Checkup

Congrats...the first 100k is the hardest. If your next goal and it sure sounds like it, is to save up a downpayment fund, then go for it. Saving for retirement is great but not when it limits your ability to fulfill other equally important goals. Agree entirely. Great job on reaching the 100k mark....
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

Not sure how this changes the calculus of putting the higher return asset in Roth, if we assume it will in fact continue to out earn bonds. If your tax rate does not change between the time you make your IRA contribution and the time of your withdrawal a tIRA and a ROTH are completely equivalent on...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

I prefer not thinking terms of tax adjusted value on the way in. I believe I would get lost in the weeds and make a poor decision at some point. Compare that to a traditional IRA which Vg says has a balance of $400K. Since I am in the 25% tax bracket I own $100k in taxes that have accrued in the IR...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

Roth - Equities (get the most mileage out of the best space) If you think you'll get the most mileage out of equities, why own any bonds at all? Once you adjust for the after-tax value, it does not matter which assets you put in a traditional IRA or 401(k) and which you put in a Roth. If you are in...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

Certainly, one of my favorites for this space is actually VT for ultimate efficiency.. VT has no capital gains because it doesn't rebalance. If that's what you want, you can do it with VTI and VXUS by holding them in market proportions and always buying them like that, never selling a single share....
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

I've settled on the following -- Roth - Equities (get the most mileage out of the best space) 401k - Balanced (natural place for bonds, add equities as needed to complete the allocation) Taxable - Equity. Simple and efficient while maximizing the scarcity value of the Roth IRA. Correct me if I'm wr...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

I've settled on the following -- Roth - Equities (get the most mileage out of the best space) 401k - Balanced (natural place for bonds, add equities as needed to complete the allocation) Taxable - Equity. Simple and efficient while maximizing the scarcity value of the Roth IRA. Snowjob: I hope you ...
by Snowjob
Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living on dividend and interest a question
Replies: 30
Views: 2314

Re: Living on dividend and interest a question

To the extent that you can invest the dividends or use them better than a company can, its preferable for you to have that capital. With regards to living off the dividends, I would love to be able to. At the current S&P yield that means I would be very well off. (2.5% roughly is about 40x your ...
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 06, 2016 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great
Replies: 75
Views: 8664

Re: Asset location strategies for taxes are OK; but not great

I've settled on the following --

Roth - Equities (get the most mileage out of the best space)
401k - Balanced (natural place for bonds, add equities as needed to complete the allocation)
Taxable - Equity.

Simple and efficient while maximizing the scarcity value of the Roth IRA.
by Snowjob
Sun Mar 06, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]
Replies: 43
Views: 5828

Re: Sigh. IlliniDave = Market Timer (VGENX) [Vanguard Energy Fund]

Look at it this way,your downside is very low and your upside is very high.The world cannot function without energy.I would not be losing any sleep over it,unless you think the big oils are going under and we are all going to be riding bikes. If all the oils go under and the company is transferred ...
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 03, 2016 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has your number changed?
Replies: 52
Views: 6578

Re: Has your number changed?

My number has increased for two reasons --

1.) I got older and realized I had under estimated a lot of costs

2.) My estimation of long term returns on equity and risks to taxation / property rights / social security cuts changes etc has increased.
by Snowjob
Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Audit my personal investments - 28 years old, MFJ, ~$165k income
Replies: 16
Views: 1842

Re: Audit my personal investments - 28 years old, MFJ, ~$165k income

Two comments and a question -- 1.) As noted before, your going to be very heavy on the stock side, possibly to heavy for you taste ultimate. I suggest a slightly more conservative risk profile. (the 75/25 Graham bounds always seemed to resonate with me personally.) To achieve this, just do a blend o...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Develop a From-the-Ground-Up retirement budget
Replies: 6
Views: 811

Re: How to Develop a From-the-Ground-Up retirement budget

I am 20-30 years away depending on a variety of factors, but I think the big challenge to me is how much to allocate toward health care spending. That is the huge x-factor.
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your target portfolio size?
Replies: 66
Views: 7515

Re: What is your target portfolio size?

25x TOTAL spending level is what I am targeting. Assuming I get 75% or so of social security, this actually increase the targeted retirement assets to 33.3x my targeted expenditures. If things go wrong or if social security ends up being less than I will be covered. That's my cushion. I will have no...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does everyone really need to save $1 million for retirement?
Replies: 225
Views: 30810

Re: Does everyone really need to save $1 million for retirement?

and the access to financial advice will cause a significant shift. Snowjob, would you mind expanding on this? curious as to what his meant by this, thanks Mostly that anyone can go online and get very good financial advice for free (like this website). Given how much young people use the internet t...
by Snowjob
Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does everyone really need to save $1 million for retirement?
Replies: 225
Views: 30810

Re: Does everyone really need to save $1 million for retirement?

Another point for us younger folks to remember is, a lot of these older workers have pensions which reduces the need to save. I suspect 30 years from now this survey will see those with the ability to save to have far more retirement assets than this cohort. The lack of a pension, the doubts of soci...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 27, 2016 2:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cheap MRI in Connecticut?
Replies: 18
Views: 1666

Re: Cheap MRI in Connecticut?

I am a retired MRI radiologist. First, why do you want an MRI? There is no such thing as a cheap MRI. As noted above, the radiologist's reading fee is probably a small fraction of the total fee. Do you not have insurance that will cover the study? If you saw a reputable orthopedist (preferably a kn...
by Snowjob
Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Vanishing DIY Annuity
Replies: 11
Views: 2423

Re: The Vanishing DIY Annuity

my trusty excel spreadsheet also predicts 80 yrs. YE portfolio Year w/d 1,000,000 0 52,000 971,700 1 53,040 941,627 2 54,101 909,714 3 55,183 875,894 4 56,286 840,098 5 57,412 802,253 6 58,560 762,285 7 59,732 720,117 8 60,926 675,670 9 62,145 628,864 10 63,388 579,613 11 64,655 527,831 12 65,949 47...

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