Search found 2442 matches

by Simplegift
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 26
Views: 1642

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

Like Japan, China will be a very important country. Not predicting doom, I just don't think China will be taking over the world anytime soon. The Chinese economy is still growing but growth has slowed. Their stock market appears to be down 45% or so from the peak in 2008. The commodities boom peake...
by Simplegift
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inventions That Changed the Modern Economy--"And John Bogle sets up Vanguard [the first index mutual fund for individual
Replies: 2
Views: 138

Re: Inventions That Changed the Modern Economy--"And John Bogle sets up Vanguard [the first index mutual fund for indivi

Back in 2013, Vanguard had some fun with the adoption rates of great ideas in the chart below. The market penetration and adoption rate of the broad, low-cost portfolio is certainly greater than 25% today. https://s3.postimg.org/flesmjear/Untitled.jpg NOTE: Shows percentage of U.S. mutual funds and ...
by Simplegift
Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 26
Views: 1642

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

What was actually happening in 1989 which made the world see Japan as such an amazing investment? Between about 1976 and 1990, Japanese companies had very strong, sustained growth in earnings-per-share (in green below), were the darlings of the world, and saw their share prices bid up to unrealisti...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

And there is a very good chance that the world of 2067 will not be a whole lot like 2017. And we have no clue today as to how it will be different. No doubt the future will not be the same as the present. But we do have some rough outlines of what the future will look like, just based on current de...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 26
Views: 1642

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

1) What was the PE ratio of Nikkei 225 on December 29, 1989 and what is it today? This website has some charts that might be helpful to you (though the data itself is only available by purchase). It looks like CAPE 10 for the Nikkei 225 was around 90 on 12/29/89 and was 27.4 on 3/30/17 (the last da...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 19, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1000+ Crypocurrencies and growing
Replies: 3
Views: 477

Re: 1000+ Crypocurrencies and growing

A chart of the historical market share by the various crypto-currencies:
Please don't ask me what any of this means. :wink:
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 69
Views: 7771

Re: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."

Can someone please provide an example of a listed U.S. corporation that contributes to genocide or crimes against humanity? The non-profit group that originated Vanguard’s divestment proposal, Investors Against Genocide, has focused their efforts on four oil companies that do business in Sudan and ...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational Despair?
Replies: 29
Views: 3463

Re: Irrational Despair?

Irrational despair seems to be the disorder of the day. Or is it quite rational? Should we sell everything now? According to the current fundamentals of the U.S. stock market, there is no rational reason for despair. From the most recent S&P 500 earnings report of 8/18/17: • Second-quarter earnings...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 69
Views: 7771

Re: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."

You could make arguments both ways. Owning specialized REITs seems to add quite a bit of diversification to the fund. I'm certain Jeremy Grantham will be excited about the timberland :) I don't have a dog in this fight but I would vote yes, diversification is the only free lunch as they say. I'll b...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2411

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

Your analysis makes much sense to me. This tells me that shorting bond duration is not only unnecessary, but maybe the wrong strategy. If nothing else, it seems to me that going longer may be profitable. Right. Though going longer might be profitable, it also carries with it the heightened risk tha...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2411

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

I don't think you can forecast interest rates with any precision-- certainly not enough to call bond markets. You have to look at the employment rate of men and women 25-55 to get a real picture of what is going on. In the U.S. at least, the growth in the effective working age population — that is,...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Phillips Curve is not working!
Replies: 26
Views: 2411

Re: The Phillips Curve is not working!

Why is this important? Because the notion (and my fear) that intermediate term (5 to 7 year duration) bond funds will suffer due to the Fed's actions has not happened. In fact, bonds fund are doing rather well. There’s ample evidence that, due to structural changes in the global economy, the Philli...
by Simplegift
Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5043

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

I agree with being conservative with expectations for the next several years of US stock (and bond) returns. However, in these low-return future articles, an important detail is missing......that the current low-return forecasts are for the next decade, not the next 5 decades. And yet the analysis ...
by Simplegift
Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

^^^ Just a few quick, initial observations about the Jorda-Shularick-Taylor (JST) online data sets, 1870-2013: Country Coverage • 17 advanced countries: Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United King...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

The r.e. piece is perhaps not surprising globally , over the long term, based on population growth and the move from less-developed/agrarian to industrial/post-industrial economies worldwide. More people demand more housing, more housing means less develop-able land... You're probably right. The OP...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

That will undoubtedly give me some enjoyable "me time in company of Ms Excel" this winter... Glad you saw the post, siamond, as I was going to send you a PM otherwise. I'm looking forward to working with the data sets myself. The authors were certainly very generous to make them publicly available ...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?
Replies: 34
Views: 2216

Re: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?

In other words, what does the PRICE of the stock you own (which EMH talks about) have to do with the PROPORTION of that stock that makes up your portfolio? In ideal terms, market cap-weighted indexes automatically reflect the consensus of all global investors’ estimates of each company's relative v...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?
Replies: 34
Views: 2216

Re: Why do we (passive index investors) invest at market weight?

It isn't necessary to believe in EMH to justify investing in cap-weighted indexes — but it makes it easier to do so, in my view. What EMH (strong version) tells us is that all relevant information is continuously being incorporated into stock prices through daily market trading, which is then reflec...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

If interested in more about this research, covering 17 advanced countries from 1870-2015, one can access for free some of the original data sets in Excel format (including housing prices, stock prices, interest rates, inflation rates, real GDP growth and more) — plus read similar papers that have be...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

My main concern is that they are saying for over the last 150 years or so, real estate has had less risk and a higher return than equities. That violates a commonly accepted tenant that in efficient markets, higher risk assets have higher returns. So either real estate has been a significantly inef...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 5978

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

From the original article: Ever since the financial crisis, when the correlation of all risky assets rose toward 1, investors have been hearing that the world has become flat and the benefits of international diversification are gone. The explanation generally is that the world market has become mor...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

We should note demographics. Since 1870 the developed world, and underdeveloped, has seen a revolution in life expectancies. As a result, even though fertility rates follow a predictable pattern 20-30 years post life extension (faster in China), populations worldwide have soared. About 4-5x in that...
by Simplegift
Wed Aug 16, 2017 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 74
Views: 6678

Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Well, not quite everything, but stocks, housing, bonds and bills worldwide. What’s unique about this new paper is that the researchers have assembled total return data on housing (as an investment, including rental income and capital appreciation) for 16 advanced countries over a nearly 150-year per...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

Is the DFA Intermediate Government Fixed Income I Fund (DFIGX) such an Intermediate Treasury fund? Yes, mostly. With an average duration of 6 years it’s definitely an intermediate-term bond fund, and it’s invested 90% in U.S. Government bonds. It appears to have some leeway to invest beyond just Tr...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 15, 2017 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?
Replies: 35
Views: 1828

Re: Dumb, basic question about market-cap weighted funds?

I just don't see the logic in this kind of market-cap weighted investing. The beauty of market capitalization-weighted indexes is that they automatically reflect the consensus of all global investors’ estimates of each company's relative value at every moment in time. Market price is a powerful mec...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

Several years ago, one of the experts here, maybe Larry, said total bond market fund was not a good idea because GNMA is more positively linked to stocks and and in a stock downturn will go down more. Does anyone here agree with this? Looking at the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, Vanguard’s GNMA Fund di...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 15, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

Which duration is "best" and "worst" is a bit all over the place, depending on the cut-off used for the stock drop. Thanks, AlohaJoe. One confounding aspect of the historical U.S. bond data before about 1970 is that the yield curve was often inverted — i.e, negatively-sloped, with short bonds yield...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

I disagree with Vanguard's results :) My answer to the OP is: no bonds usually "do best when stocks drop"; they are NOT correlated (positively or negatively). But if you have [/i] to pick one, it would be intermediate Treasuries. Your point on correlations is well taken. But it's worth noting that ...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

How about short term vs intermediate term during a market down turn. Is there any pattern? Looking at the market meltdown during the 2008-09 Financial Crisis, all durations of Vanguard Treasury Funds performed well (chart below). Short-term Treasuries were the steadiest (as always), though Intermed...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?
Replies: 25
Views: 2453

Re: When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst?

When stocks drop, which bond funds usually do best and worst? Clearly, Treasuries have historically provided the best portfolio protection during market corrections and periods of market stress (chart below) — and they will most likely continue to so. But other high-quality bonds (corporates, munis...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 11, 2017 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?
Replies: 27
Views: 2427

Re: Anyone Out There Who Has Failed To Stick To Their Long Term Investing Plan?

I want to 'be greedy when other are fearful', but I want to hear other people on this... All I can say is, all fears are not the same. The Tech Crash of 2000 was mostly a stock market phenomenon for many investors (unless one was employed in tech or related fields), and was widely recognized at the...
by Simplegift
Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting
Replies: 103
Views: 7014

Re: New Dividends Appreciation data series - backtesting

The time period we are evaluating is basically the last 30 years, a period of ever lowering interest rates/inflation and recently sluggish economic growth. Dividends as sources of income have become increasingly important ever since the bursting of the tech bubble, a time when dividends were at his...
by Simplegift
Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap
Replies: 6
Views: 549

Re: World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap

Granted, ranking companies by revenues is not that all that helpful to investors, who are more interested in earnings-per-share and similar metrics. But the annual Global 500 list does give some regional insight into where global revenues are being generated over time (chart below): https://s27.post...
by Simplegift
Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap
Replies: 6
Views: 549

World’s Largest Companies - Revenue vs. Market Cap

Recently published was the Fortune Global 500, an annual ranking of the top 500 companies in the world as measured by revenue. Most striking was the contrast between the top 10 companies by revenue (at left below), and the current top 10 companies by market capitalization (at right), according to Va...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 08, 2017 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?
Replies: 21
Views: 1213

Re: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?

I do wonder, that being the case, if we're seeing higher correlations as globalization and technology connect us more and more, but yes - if correlations are just as low, and risk just as low as well, would be easier to do 3 funds than 10. You might appreciate this recent Forum thread: Internationa...
by Simplegift
Tue Aug 08, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?
Replies: 21
Views: 1213

Re: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?

In terms of regions, I've definitely thought about that as well - one issue is that the correlations don't look to be as low. For example, I ran correlations between EM small cap and US total stock, and found the correlation to be around .84 - given the increased risk of EM small cap, I'm not sure ...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?
Replies: 21
Views: 1213

Re: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?

Compared with the three regional indexes above, it doesn’t seem that the U.S. market sectors have enough dispersion of annual returns to make them all worth managing in the way that you’re suggesting (table below). Just at a glance, the sector returns appear a bit more highly correlated than the reg...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?
Replies: 21
Views: 1213

Re: Maintain sector ETFs to add/withdrawal most effectively?

Rather than trying to manage 10 sector ETFs, you might be able to accomplish what you’re after with just the three main regional indexes, divided equally — U.S., developed markets ex-U.S., and emerging markets. Here’s the last eleven years of history, giving a sense of the dispersion of returns: htt...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 1966

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

@Simplegift so what's it like in Central Oregon, Madras to Bend? Growing fast, but it hasn't yet reached the crazy pre-crash levels of 2006-7. It’s still a market that, when a California resident sells their home, they can purchase two new homes in Central Oregon. Median house prices around $330,00...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 1966

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

The 2 countries in proximate positions, to my knowledge, are Australia and New Zealand. Again, Anglosphere countries on the Pacific Rim. Chinese buyers are blamed for it, and they perhaps kicked it off (but they were welcomed in during the property slump of the 1990s in Canada) but they are by no m...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 1966

Re: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

For a comparison of U.S. home prices with a few other global markets (all inflation-adjusted):
Yikes! It appears as though the Canadians must have just quit building any new houses. :wink:
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?
Replies: 15
Views: 1966

Recovery of the U.S. Housing Market?

According to a recently published study , U.S. house prices finally surpassed the highs they reached a decade ago in 2007 — but only in nominal dollars, not real (chart below). Though the number of homeowners underwater on their mortgages is down nearly 75% since 2011 (from 12.1 million to 3.2 milli...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What determines the shape of the yield curve?
Replies: 43
Views: 2772

Re: What determines the shape of the yield curve?

Then if expectations are already priced in for longer maturities, if the market expects say a 1% FED hike and the hike happens exactly as expected, the yields at higher maturities will not change. Though I guess the FED hike will affect the yield of 3 months bills? Yes, what you’re describing is ex...
by Simplegift
Mon Aug 07, 2017 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTSAX-International?
Replies: 8
Views: 849

Re: VTSAX-International?

If one examines Mr. Bogle’s position on international equity investing, you’ll find a bit of cognitive dissonance. On the one hand, it’s a fundamental Boglehead principle to diversify broadly — that is, instead of choosing particular sections of the market that might outperform, try to approximate t...
by Simplegift
Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bearish trends beneath the surface
Replies: 13
Views: 1565

Re: bearish trends beneath the surface

The subtitle of the article is: “Recent weeks have seen sharp drops in the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages.” https://s2.postimg.org/tbjzk1749/image.png Source: StockCharts Yes, the percentage has fallen from 75% in mid-June to 63% last Friday. In the larger picture, an absolu...
by Simplegift
Sun Aug 06, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?
Replies: 55
Views: 3075

Re: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?

...just out of curiosity, mind sharing the pointers you found? Here’s the complete list of search results from Google Books: Telltale Chart One early use of the term is from 1911, in a Sunset magazine story, in reference to a nautical chart: "Eleven vessels bound for the Atlantic were lost sight of...
by Simplegift
Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?
Replies: 55
Views: 3075

Re: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?

I just wish somebody would suggest a better word that would satisfy both guidelines and readability... A quick Google search indicates that Mr. Bogle did not originate the term "Telltale Chart" — as it has been in use at least since the 1930s in various financial and economic contexts. So how about...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?
Replies: 55
Views: 3075

Re: New Wiki page: the Telltale Chart => feedback?

Excellent work on this new Wiki page, siamond and LadyGeek. Thanks! As a chart enthusiast, I’m ashamed to say that I’ve never actually focused on the finer details of the Telltale Chart, or appreciated its advantages over a regular growth chart. Your cogent explanations, plus the example charts, are...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Puts Rivals on Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up
Replies: 62
Views: 5854

Re: "Vanguard Puts Rival Firms On Notice: Fee Wars Will Only Heat Up"

It seems to me that if it wasn't for Vanguard, these other firms would not be lowering their fees (or offering index funds at all). Good point. There’s definitely been a “Vanguard effect,” as other fund companies are under pressure to lower their fees in an attempt to compete. But industry-wide ave...
by Simplegift
Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short vs. Intermediate bond backtest
Replies: 40
Views: 2494

Re: Short vs. Intermediate bond backtest

Just to follow up on the point upthread about the bond market's varying expectations for inflation/deflation over the last century. Charted below are the annual yield spreads of 10-year over 1-year Treasuries, from 1871-2016 (Shiller data). Up until about 1930, the yield curve was consistently negat...